--- title: "Dose of Alpha Episode #8: Prediction Market Philosophy | AlphaGrowth" description: "Other topics: Milton Friedman on price as the ultimate oracle. Dataism as the actual religion of the 21st century. Why insider trading laws are a cope. Why " url: "https://alphagrowth.io/blog/dose-of-alpha-episode-8-prediction-market-philosophy/" --- [Back to blog](https://alphagrowth.io/blog/index.md) Author Oksana Vlasenko Podcast DeFi Market Analysis 1 min read / 5 months ago # Dose of Alpha Episode #8: Prediction Market Philosophy What if prediction markets aren't perps, aren't options, and aren't the gimmick everyone thinks they are? If you're still in your perps-maximalist bubble, this one's gonna sting. Prediction markets aren't perps. They're not options. They're a third thing β€” wisdom of crowds + insider trading + machine learning + AGI bait. Bryan calls it, "computational future projection." Eric calls it, "smart beta." The rest of crypto calls it scary. Eric Waisanen is a seasoned advantage player, a.k.a. card counter. He's got Discord receipts, advantage player chats, the whole gambit. And he tells exactly how a casino takes three months of losses on purpose to build the black book that bans every card counter in the country. That's the playbook running on the AI-native prediction market they invested in. Their take? Take the loss. Build the data. Win the long game. Other topics: Milton Friedman on price as the ultimate oracle. Dataism as the actual religion of the 21st century. Why insider trading laws are a cope. Why the Epstein files always come out eventually. We're not pulling punches. πŸ”‘ Topics covered: 0:00 The Greatest Sign of Intelligence is Prediction 1:01 Prediction Markets vs. Perpetual Swaps 3:08 Why Perps Beat Options as a Financial Primitive 6:13 Lessons from Card Counting and the House Edge 10:15 Toxic Flow, Retail Flow, and the Uniswap Problem 12:22 AI as Oracle: Attack Vectors and Model Competition 13:10 Tatiana Colligan's Quote on AGI and Future Prediction 14:00 Solving the Cold Start Problem with Single Player Markets 15:24 A Thousand Ways How NOT to Make a Lightbulb 18:13 Dataism, Insider Trading, and the Free Market 21:13 Closing Thoughts More alpha drops soon. Follow on X: Eric: [**@EricWaisanen**](https://x.com/EricWaisanen) πŸ”— AlphaGrowth: [**alphagrowth.io**](https://alphagrowth.io/) πŸ“² Follow Bryan: [**@bryancolligan**](https://x.com/bryancolligan) | [**@alphagrowth1**](https://x.com/alphagrowth1) The AlphaGrowth team is excited to bring you real-time intel from the DeFi front lines, each week as we release new episodes. Stay tuned for more! And don't forget to comment and share your thoughts with us on [**YouTube**](https://www.youtube.com/@alphagrowth/videos), [**Spotify**](https://open.spotify.com/show/3qrkJE2krg8GhYvRrEVj7L?si=de929349abe14525), [**X**](https://x.com/alphagrowth1), [**Apple Podcasts**](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dose-of-alpha/id1878202321)⁠. Bring RWAs onchain with AlphaGrowth in 2026: [**alphagrowth.io⁠**](https://alphagrowth.io/). Subscribe for more unfiltered DeFi intel, market maneuvers, and alpha drops! Like & comment your biggest takeaway. SHARE THIS [Share on X](https://x.com/intent/tweet?text=Dose%20of%20Alpha%20Episode%20%238%3A%20Prediction%20Market%20Philosophy&url=https%3A%2F%2Falphagrowth.io%2Fblog%2Fdose-of-alpha-episode-8-prediction-market-philosophy%2F) [Share on LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https://alphagrowth.io/blog/dose-of-alpha-episode-8-prediction-market-philosophy/) ## Related news Growth Hacking Market Analysis Podcast [### Hot Takes Cardano Prime builders vol.1 with Alpha Growth](https://alphagrowth.io/blog/hot-takes-cardano-prime-builders-vol1-with-alpha-growth/index.md) Oksana Vlasenko / 2 min / 2 days ago Biz Dev Growth Hacking [### Fund the Founder, Not Just a Code](https://alphagrowth.io/blog/fund-the-founder-not-just-a-code/index.md) Bryan Colligan / 6 min / 4 weeks ago Growth Hacking Real Yield [### Where Whales Look: Getting Your Yield Found](https://alphagrowth.io/blog/where-whales-look-getting-your-yield-found/index.md) Bryan Colligan / 5 min / 4 weeks ago