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1000x "Liberation Day" Livestream
Recorded: April 2, 2025 Duration: 0:38:39Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts analyzed the impact of tariffs on the economy and the crypto market, highlighting trends of decline in consumption and market conditions, while also identifying potential growth opportunities through strategic tax cuts and Bitcoin's relative strength.
Full Transcription
And we're live. Happy Liberation Day, Avi.
Happy Liberation Day.
Are you enjoying being liberated from your wealth?
Yeah. Yeah, I feel liberated from my hopes, my dreams, my money, my future.
This is a pretty scary feeling for sure.
But I guess the whole point of these tariffs isn't to help out.
I mean, Rose like us.
it's not.
And it's not,
I mean,
I guess what I'm struggling to figure out is who exactly it's designed to
help.
But what's really interesting is that we're,
we now collectively get to experience something that people haven't really
experienced since world war II,
which is a complete
reimagination of america's place in the world and an upending of world economic order to a degree
that you know is i think basically would have been unheard of four years ago at the you know even even
two years ago at this point just because i don't think people took this
this tariff stuff that seriously from trump i mean like even even the even leading conservative
voices are like what what the hell are you doing trump yeah um you know he he clearly he clearly
has a plan in in his head uh you know hopefully the tariffs are not going to go into effect for another four days.
I think April 6th and April 9th are the two major days that he put out in terms of implementation
of tariffs. And so we have a little bit of wheel room. I think what he's hoping for is that people
are going to come out and say, all right, we don't want to deal with this. You know, we'll take our
tariffs off, you take your tariffs off and then everyone
returns to a free trade world but uh you know for now it's it's hairy it's it's that it's
definitely very hairy out there i think you know i've been i've been fairly quiet i don't think
i've tweeted in like two weeks that's because i haven't had really anything interesting to say
um you know i i think this just goes back to the framework that I always discuss. Right now,
the momentum is down, you know, and we're not clearly at value levels because,
you know, you have the you have the equity markets puking out below us, you have,
you know, altcoins sort of sort of bleeding. We're down, you know, altcoins sort of bleeding.
We're down, you know, we're down about 15% from the highs on NASDAQ, maybe another 5% to 10% to go.
I do think that BTC below 80 is a good buy midterm.
But other than that, I mean, I just don't really have any strong convictions in the market. I don't know.
I do think we're closer to the end just because it's like, well, what, what, what else is there to do at this point? But yeah, I mean, what do you think?
Yeah. I think that like this may be the flush that marks the bottom.
I think this is what you buy. You know, I've been. I didn't really see this sell-off coming.
You're not always right as a trader. So definitely when you say, all right, this is it,
this is the time to buy. And you've said that a couple of times on the way down,
there's sort of this risk that your credibility is a bit damaged but you know I have been recommending
Bitcoin I haven't recommended other alts and Bitcoin's not really that deep in the can right
now it's you know we're trading where we were you know just like a few hours ago realistically
just like a few hours ago, realistically.
Like we're on March 31st, the lows were 81, now we're 83.
It's not really like that crazy to buy this.
I think Bitcoin is showing relative strength right now.
And I think that you're supposed to take heed of that.
Another thing is like, you know, just having been a, you know,
you'll probably, this will probably resonate with you too, Avi.
Like just having been a business person. It's, I think it's a little bit short-sighted to fault Trump
for the immediate impact of these tariffs. Like I can, I can sort of empathize with the idea of
having a more nuanced multi-part strategy than just like everything I, I say and do has to make
the stock market rally that, that minute or that hour. Like I can see maybe a long game being played
here where the tariffs are hiked. There's some pain. Uh, there's some contraction, other countries,
you know, enter into negotiations. And then ultimately what ends up
happening is, you know, the trade, the global trade picture looks a little bit fair, tariffs,
tariffs come back down. And in the midst of the turmoil, the Fed has a little bit more scope to
cut rates. So, you know, I don't think, I don't think we're, we're going to enter like a crazy
recession as a result of this. I think it's more just like the kind of situation that you look for when you're when you're trying to like as a markets person like the kind of
situation that you try to have to understand the rationale for rather than like just feel annoyed
about your static long portfolio you know i'm saying yeah Yeah, I understand what you're talking about.
I mean, sort of two points here that I want to make.
One is, I don't think, I think Trump could have played this as a long game a lot better.
I think coming out and basically saying, I'm going to take on the entire world at the same time is a little silly.
I think that was him trying to get things done
too fast. If he had gone region, even just region by region, if not country by country,
and tried to negotiate with them and use his stick to negotiate, it might have been a smoother ride.
But I also understand that he does want there to be pain. I think that that's like part of the calculus.
But that with, with, with all, with all that said, right.
We know that he wants there to be pain, you know,
but we know that he can't have too much pain because he's,
he's the stock market president. And no matter,
no matter how much I think they jawbone about not looking at the market and
looking at the yields. I think that they, they do care about the market at the end of the day.
That's also a barometer for how presidents are measured.
And we know this guy has a reasonably large ego.
And so if the market's down 30% to start his presidency, I think that he's going to be looking at that and going, all right, maybe, you know, I got, I got to fix this for my image.
Because what do you, what do you, what you don't want is you don't want to get elected in and then immediately have the market nuke because of, because of your policies.
And then you kind of lose a mandate to govern because people lose faith in you and he needs to, he needs to avoid that situation.
needs to avoid that situation.
Yeah.
Yeah.
That's a really good point.
With all of that said,
I mean, ETH is...
Basically, alts outside of maybe some RWA alts
are doing okay.
Kind of just fucked across the board.
They're just not going to be...
There just won't be any buyers for these things at all
until Bitcoin gets back above 90.
Basically, these things can have these, you know, can have bounces, but they're straight
line lower until VIX is down and the market relaxes. I mean, this is just, it's just a
shit time to be, to be an alt.
So are you saying that inverse alt season is still the new alt season?
Yeah, I'm saying the inverse alt season looks, honestly, it looks pretty damn good.
I mean, I've got my eye on a few things that I think could still do well.
You know, if you just give them a little bit of time, I've got my little RWA basket that I've been talking about.
You know, the pendles of the world,
the pendle, ondo, plume, curve.
I'm sort of waiting on good levels for them to start adding.
And I'd be adding that against ETH because I do think these things over the next year
are going to gain a lot of traction
just because of the regulatory clarity that's coming.
But other than that, I'm pretty much cashed up,
waiting for spots to deploy.
That sounds like a good place to be.
What was crazy about today is how badly
the Wall Street Journal rugged the entire complex,
including equities.
Equities are down more than Bitcoin.
Do you see this?
Equity futures are down 3.2%.
Bitcoin's down 2.6%.
Yeah.
I think that some of that's like,
yeah.
What is it?
GME buying.
Yep.
Which was good.
You know,
keep keeping,
keeping that up.
But you see,
you see the wall street journal,
they came out with an article at 4.
PM that said that the tariffs are going to be 10%,
which was lower than estimates. And then everything just at 4 p.m. that said that the tariffs are going to be 10%, which is lower than estimates.
And then everything just giga pumped.
Yeah.
And then immediately it came out that that was false.
Oh my God.
Yeah, it's not crazy.
The whole market was sort of like the markets opened up today.
I think everybody was expecting this to be like, well, it was like a sell the rumor, buy
the news kind of thing.
And then Trump just came out came out swinging i mean what what are the all-in tariffs on china now is it like a hundred percent
obviously it's something 50 it's i think it's 54 so it's 34 new in addition to the 20% that already, already is there. I'm not, hold on. I mean, let me just quickly,
basically one of my, one of my contacts is Ryan Peterson who runs Flexport.
And he was saying, remember these duties that were announced are on top of existing duties.
So for China, you have original duty of seven and a half to 25% duty from section 301, 20% from earlier this year, 34% today.
And then he said 25% for China's purchases of Venezuelan oil. So that's over a hundred percent.
So it's 54% higher to buy Chinese goods than it was at the, before Trump was elected,
but there are still other duties floating around there. Like some of these, I'd like to see a list of all in tariffs. Like these are, these are some savage numbers and
Avi, I want to get your take on this. Like my, my take is that my take is that it will not result
in, I think, I think consumption will drop as a result of this. Like, I think that economics
101 will kick in and higher prices will result in lower demand. And ultimately, I think that like, yes, everybody's
profit margins will get squeezed and yes, prices of certain goods will be higher. But like,
I don't think that people are just going to pony up and spend this extra money. I think it's really
going to crimp consumption, which will obviously trickle down into other recessionary type looking data. What do you think?
You're on mute. I think that you're right on that point. I mean,
as we've discussed before, tariffs don't, it's not just a tax on foreign goods,
it's a tax on domestic goods as well.
It's just consumption in general.
And without wages going up, I mean, what we're going to see is I think we're actually going
to see like a reasonably deflationary effect overall from this.
One of the main reasons I think that is because if you look at the levels
of consumption, the people earning more than $250,000 a year make up a much larger percentage
of consumption than they have in the last 40 years. And with the stock market going down,
those are the people that hold assets. I mean, I mean, I know just like myself, like, I'm,
like, I'm poorer today than I was yesterday. So I'm definitely going to be saving money a bit more. Right? So it's like, it's like a natural thing, right? It's like, you know, I'm looking,
I'm looking at buying a house right now. It's like, okay, well, like, how much money do I want
to spend on a house? The answer is a little bit different today than it was uh i mean not actually but you know just as you feel a little bit you feel you know you feel like
okay well maybe i should be a little bit more frugal you know now now now that i'm 15 percent
poorer than i was three months ago you know i think it's funny like i i i think that what got
joe biden fired from his job wasn't the dementia.
It wasn't the policies.
It was just inflation that occurred during his term.
And so I think that, you know, the Republicans are going to basically be subject to the same medicine.
If we have inflation, we have to take the same medicine.
So I kind of agree with you. I think that while, you know, sticker prices
on certain foreign goods will inflate, the overall impact of these tariffs on the economy will be,
you know, a cooling effect. This won't heat things up. This won't cause consumption.
This is like reverse stimulus. So basically, it'll like, basically what I think is coming next is a tax cut package.
I think that,
you know,
okay.
They basically just introduced a massive tax assumption.
Now they're going to have to cut taxes somewhere else.
Otherwise they're just kind of like people that hike taxes,
which is not what they were elected to do.
which is not what they were elected to do.
And that's not really their branding that they're the tax cut party.
And that's not really their branding.
They're the tax cut party.
They always have been.
So I think we should expect bullish, tight news for crypto from here.
Like if Trump manages to cut taxes to zero for everybody who's earning under 150K,
which is the plan.
You know, Besson's gone out and said that.
Lutnik's gone out and said that.
Like, let's say they get close to that.
That's pretty bullish for things that retail likes to
YOLO like crypto you know um what gets worse from here before the the stuff starts to get better
like it's hard to imagine anything happening that's worse than this and bitcoin's holding
up pretty well I don't know it to me the setup looks bullish. Yeah, it's a good thought exercise,
right? I mean, whenever you have a narrative in the market that's causing fear, you have to ask,
well, how old is that narrative? And for a while, I think, which is why we got a bounce
for a bit up until Trump announced this whole Liberation Day BS is that all of the bad news
had been absorbed and there wasn't new bad news to come. And then Trump comes out and goes,
well, there's, by the way, Liberation Day is coming soon. I'm going to be tariffing everybody.
I was like, oh, Mark, it's like, OK, fuck. I guess that's new bad news. We can go back down.
But now we're at a point where, okay, we're done again. We've hit
all the bad news. And so then the questions are like, what are the knock-on effects? And then
what are the ways out? And then what's more likely? And what do I mean by that? Well,
ways out mean how does this situation resolve itself? How does it get better?
It gets better if Trump walks back the tariffs or if there's a negotiation
room or if just nothing changes and data and data remains constant.
But both of us think that consumption consumption is going to be hit.
I think that the,
basically the only way that they avoid a recession is if they actually do
manage to pass like a reasonable amount of tax cuts.
Otherwise, I think by definition, it's very hard to see us not heading into a recession, which might be very possible.
They pass big tax cuts and then the tariffs get removed and then we go up in a straight line forever and always until the end of the Trump presidency. But he has boxed us into a little bit of a tough position here. I mean,
these tariffs are pretty extreme, Jonah. These are some pretty nasty tariffs.
These are big ones. I mean, put it this way, Avi. A guy in the chat says,
why do you think there won't be a recession? Let me respond to that
and respond to what you just said. I don't think there will be a recession because unlike every
other flirtation with recession that I've experienced in my 20 years in markets this is the first one that's intentional like self-inflicted
intentional like predictable like normally it's shit out of left field it's covid it's um oh my
god like a subprime mortgages no one even thought about that until it was too late you know or um
you know flash crash or all these random things that happened over the
years this is the first time where like a bunch of politicians policymakers and technocrats have
like gotten together and created a managed recession and because this is like man-made
like it feels like the timing is so kind of obvious when you look at it that way it's
it's like if you're going to take some painful medicine medicine analogy you do it right at the
beginning when you're still on your honeymoon period and people are giving you a little bit
of grace your first hundred days you don't just like let this malaise continue into the midterms and then
get destroyed and then let it continue another two years and then get thrown out of office in
disgrace having not completed your agenda and having your legacy tarnished or destroyed. Like,
no, you rip the bandaid off while you can, which is immediately. And then you start to rebuild the
foundations that you were elected to rebuild. So this is
not a partisan comment. This is not something that it's like me trying to defend Trump. I'm
just sort of like reverse engineering what's happening here. And the reason why I think that
we won't end up in a recession is because since this was created in an entirely manufactured
artificial fashion, it can be unwound just as easily.
None of these tariffs can't be unwound.
None of this is creating a beast that the Trump administration can't control.
Foreign countries will always be happy to sell their goods to America, the world's largest consumer, at any price, tariffs or no tariffs. It's not like
this is doing any permanent damage. So if we start to get into real trouble territory for the S&P,
I don't think Trump's just going to stick it to the American economy. It's not just rich people
who own assets. It's businesses are assets assets and if everybody's stock price is in
the toilet like hiring slows down wages get cut people get fired like it's it's it's bad times
like trump's not an idiot the people around him for the most part are aware of these basic economic
realities so because you know just in sum because this is man-made it can be undone just as quickly
as it gets done,
as it was done.
And it probably will be if things get too detrimental,
which I, you know, maybe they will,
but I doubt that this spirals into something crazy.
Yeah, I think, I mean, what you hope for
is that it just doesn't spiral out of control, right?
I mean, it's one thing. Some things end up being sticky, right? I mean, it's, it's, it's, it's, it's one thing. Uh, some, some things end
up being sticky, right? For example, if there's a significant amount of job loss and that's what
prompts everyone to be like, okay, fuck up now, you know, we're, we're, we're, we're heading,
we're heading into a recession, we should probably reverse these tariffs or do, or do something
about it. Some of that stuff's sticky, right? Um some of those jobs just won't be coming back. So there is, you know, there's, I think,
a time limit on this sort of stuff. I do tend to err on the side of, yes, this is a flush
and this will be over. A lot of people right now, like in this moment are pointing out that BTC is holding. Basically,
every single time I see NASDAQ down a ton and BTC is holding, that just means that there's a delay
because there's an idiosyncratic buyer in the market. And this time we actually know the
idiosyncratic buyer, it's GME. So basically what I'm trying to say is like, don't put too much weight on that.
You know, like I'm not a buyer at 83.
I'm a buyer at 78.
You know, I know that's, you know, 5%, it's not a huge difference. But if you're a trader, it makes sense, right?
Like this is actually a phenomenal market.
If you want to trade, all you have to do is just trade at extremes.
Like if you get a billion dollars of liquidations or you get a 10% down day from ETH or an 8% down day from BTC, which is very possible, that's a buy. That's like a, all right, let's wave it in
and then sell some on the pop.
And this market, I think you just have to remember
that this market is the market that you take profit in very quickly.
Like basically you get a little bit of pop and then you're out.
You just shove it out.
And that's how I'm looking at trading this,
trading this market right now.
I mean,
honestly,
I think like getting,
getting short here still is like,
you know,
honestly,
probably short ETH at this point,
get,
get down to like 1500.
I feel like ETH is going to triple digits.
Where does the Ethereum foundation get liquidated again?
I wonder,
I haven't been following it.
I don't know,
but 1200 or something was the rumor. we're trading 1788 right now.
That asset is just cursed. It's down 6%.
Yeah, totally, totally cursed. I mean, like I can easily see 1500 shortly in that thing,
even if BTC holds like if BC holds the low, but it sells off to a 77. I mean, I think ETH is at 1500 in that case.
I would say lower than that.
Which is very possible.
I mean, some puts are probably, you know, if you're worried about your portfolio, puts are phenomenal here.
Because this is, it's this type of situation where you just have to be humble with your own skills.
And you got to say, I don't know what's going to happen.
This is a once in a 80 year event.
And you should probably not take massive swings or do anything too crazy with your portfolio.
Unless something like truly nuts is
happening in the market and minus three percent from btc today is not truly nuts yeah that's that
that that's my take equally as a response to that take if we get a flush that's the flush that like
like let's say that let's say that bitcoin really flushes let's say it goes down to 75k
i i would think it'd be crazy not to buy that.
What news is going to come out next? With what money, Jonah?
You said you're all in cash, Avi. I mean, I've spent some cash.
Yeah, but you've been buying the dips. I mean, I...
I haven't blown my entire wad. Let's put it that way. I really, I'm careful about not blowing my
entire wad. I have made some money on shorts. I've traded in and out of some stuff. let's put it that way like i i really i'm careful about not blowing my entire watt
i i have made some money on shorts i've traded in and out if you need a place to stay let me know
jonah just hobby it's over let's throw in the towel no i mean honestly like i i'm fine because
i follow the advice that we give again and again on this podcast, which is don't use leverage.
Don't,
don't bet more than you can afford to lose.
We're still doing,
we're still above like Trump's election levels.
I was happy then slightly happier now,
just disappointed that we're not like immediately mooning into his first
hundred days.
Now I,
I just like,
let's,
it, I can see why, why the world is pissed off.
The markets participant world is pissed at Trump right now.
Let's just sit here and war room this situation.
What's something that could happen that could make this worse?
For example, let me just think of something crazy.
Let's say that China is like, all right, we're just hiking our tariffs another 50%.
And then Trump responds by hiking tariffs on China by another 50%.
And now suddenly, like, you know, your cheap Chinese crap on Amazon is, you know, more than twice as expensive as it used to be.
Right?
I guess that's the big risk.
That's what you're afraid of. If you're, yeah, you can short altcoins with confidence. A lot of them are
just going to zero, but Bitcoin or stocks, if you short that here, what are you hoping for?
What do you, you're hoping for that, right? I mean, what, what, what you're really,
what you're really hoping for, I mean, Bitcoin's, Bitcoin is just going to follow equities at this point.
So really what you're asking is, what stops equities from going lower?
And equities right now are just pricing in a reasonable contraction in GDP because of
lower trade and lower consumption.
At least I think that's what's happening.
And that is very plausible.
I mean, here's the reality of the situation.
We don't know what the fuck is going to happen
with these tariffs.
We can guess, but when's the last time
that we had tariffs this extensive put on goods?
I mean, there are arguments to be made that it doesn't matter that, you know, a lot of people are reasonably priced.
You know, a lot of this consumption is reasonably price insensitive.
And, you know, what it what it actually eats into is it eats into the savings of Americans.
I don't know. That's a stupid argument, my personal opinion.
But it is an argument that you can make because who the fuck knows uh when it when it comes when it comes to this you can maybe uh it produces american innovation and
suddenly like they're american companies that are figure out in the next six months how to produce
the same chinese slop at lower cost because they're forced to, right?
Because they're putting R&D into it.
Maybe a bunch of companies build factories here.
Yeah, exactly.
Genuinely, who the fuck knows?
But that's kind of the issue, right?
The issue is that nobody knows.
And with that in mind, the most likely outcome is that you do end up in a recession because you do have a massive, massive hit to consumption, at least in the in the in the short run.
And so I think that's that's what the market is responding to.
Like that. That's what everyone is.
So is so is so nervous about it.
You know, and you can't you kind of need like you need the ship around uh by stimulus in some in some way right
yeah and maybe that stimulus is coming i mean i don't think it's hopium to say that i think it'd
be weird if the like they'd pretty bit they've been pretty open the administration about how
they're not just gonna hike taxes and then walk away without doing anything else.
Like this is all part of an extremely well telegraphed agenda.
Most of which is relatively stimulatory,
no taxes on tips,
no taxes on any income under 150 K.
Like we're going to lower income taxes across the board.
We're going to give you bigger state and local income tax deductions. We're going to pump domestic manufacturing. We're
going to move unproductive people in the government into productive parts of the private economy.
So again, if you're short right now, what are you hoping for?
you know, if you're short right now, what are you hoping for?
With all of the information that's been priced in today, you know,
lower earnings are priced in, lower consumption is priced in.
We have perfect information on what happened in the past.
What you're hoping for if you set a fresh short on Bitcoin and SPX at current
levels, and those two are trading with very high
correlation. Yeah. I mean, what you're hoping for on BTC, I think is like, okay, so I wish I could
share a chart here. All right. Let me just finish the sentence. You're hoping that the government
loses control of this. You're hoping that this spirals out of control. And even if stocks are
down 10%, the government brings the tariffs back down to zero, that some beast has been let out of its cage that cannot be
controlled.
That's what you're hoping for.
If you set a fresh short, you know, hoping, I mean, betting on betting on, I think it's
a better, better phrasing.
Hopefully you're not hoping for anything when you trade.
Um, but like on, on Bitcoin, if you go to the three day chart, it's actually just such
a clear short setup.
Um, from a, from a technical perspective, you get, you, you basically, you get to stop
out above 88 and you get to target the previous highs of 73.
So you have a, you know, 7% move to the top side, uh, 10% move to the downside.
you know, 7% move to the top side, 10% move to the downside.
Seems reasonable like that, you know,
and you have the momentum on your side,
which makes the risk reward better.
That just seems like a reasonable trade that a reasonable trader could take.
You know, with SPX, I think what you're betting for
is you're betting on like a one touch of 5,000 and and you can and you can get out and I don't
you know the the way the way that this is the way that this is going to play out is
all of the fears are going to be front loaded like this is gonna this is gonna end by Monday
of next week my personal opinion like whatever whatever price action is going to happen is going to end by Monday of next week, my personal opinion. Like whatever, whatever price
action is going to happen is going to get priced in by, by Monday, by Monday of next week, we're
going to get some move over the weekend, which is likely going to be negative if there's no change
in the news. And then you get the flush on Monday, and then you're going up straight.
flush on Monday and then you're going up straight. That's my, that's, that's my take because you need,
again, you need more bad news to come out. It can't just be the same thing over and over and
over and over. Yeah. That's what I'm saying. That's what I'm saying. I couldn't agree more.
I think like, I agree with Yuan Liu in the chat, SPX touching 5,000 would be a gift. Like you,
what matters is the second derivative of the news
not the news that just came out right like is the news going to get worse from here or better
hard to imagine it gets worse i don't know i i i you know i tend to have a bullish bent because
over the course of my career like i started in 07 there was the immediate global financial crisis and then the
stock market basically rallied in a straight line from 666 all the way up to six zero zero zero
right that's like you know nearly a 10xer so i i built my career over a period of time where if i
had been a perma bear or even a perma range trader
on risk assets, I wouldn't have been able to sustain my 20-year career. I would have gotten
blown out. So I tend to have a bullish bent, but there's method behind the madness. It's not just
that, oh, I grew up over a bull run, so I'm a bull. No, it's like something very important
happened in 08, something game changing, like as important,
I would say, as the US going off the gold standard in the 1970s. What happened in 2008 was that the
United States of America and governments around the world in parallel decided to underwrite risk
in the economy. That was sort of like a first. And I don't think that that genie can be put out
put back in the bottle without stocks going straight back down to 666. So I think that if
things really get bad, which this isn't like having seen actual recessions and actual crazy sell-offs, this move in stocks from 6,000 to 5,500 doesn't
seem that crazy to me.
Like this feels totally tolerable.
And in Bitcoin, going from $108,000 for one unit of our magic internet money to $83,000
for one unit of our magic internet money.
Like that's not crazy, right?
If things get actually crazy, I think we're backstopped. And this just isn't that crazy,
frankly. I think Trump was right to rip off this bandaid. Sorry, not right in the sense that like,
I agree with what he's doing, because I don't necessarily, but like his calculation
that he could get away with it now will probably be proven correct.
Yeah. I mean, I think basically what you're trying to say is this will be a short-lived crash.
This is not the destruction of an economic system that's going to take...
this is this is not the destruction of an economic system that's going to take you know you know
there's there's in your words it's not going to be uh one failure then another failure then
another failure then another failure there's not going to be a Lehman and an AIG there's just going
to be this is going to happen there's going to be a cascade and then we're done um yeah I tend
to agree with that I think the only thing is figuring out where we're done.
And that's what we've been trying to debate is when does the bad news end?
Maybe what you're supposed to do is stay on the sidelines
and then start buying good news when it comes out.
Like when the administration starts doing things that are supportive of markets,
then you can start buying.
I don't know.
But then they might come out and do another, you know, you know, you, you know, what's done really well. Gold. Yeah. 3,200.
Like gold is insane. Remember when the target for Bitcoin was a gold market cap of 10 trillion. Now gold is a 22 trillion dollar asset.
It's pretty, it's hold on. Let's see.
Gold is gold is 30. It's just so insane, man.
One way train.
Like just straight one way, like over the last year, just straight up.
I'm glad I own a ton of gold.
You do?
Yeah.
Why?
I don't understand that one.
I've never been a very good gold trader.
I don't own gold in like my investment portfolio.
I own a bunch of physical gold.
And by a bunch, I mean, I own like a substantial amount of money in physical gold,
but not like a huge percentage of my personal portfolio is in this physical
gold.
My wife owns the gold in this family.
I just,
I just think it's a,
you know,
it's,
it's,
it's good.
You know,
you never know when you're going to need it.
Do you have like gold bars or are you just talking about like earrings and wearables and stuff um so i have a bunch of like stuff that i
bought from india like earrings uh bangles uh necklaces all that sort of fun stuff i could see
you you and uh some of the other crypto nouveau riche guys like in in their late 20s early 30s like you guys act like nba players
in their rookie season you know like um all right i'm not going to name any names or docs anybody but
you're like oh yeah i love the gemstones like the gold yeah uh-huh you're literally like
kevin durant in uncut gems you know i'm what we're look i'm on top of the game what can i say Like Kevin Durant in Uncut Gems. You know?
Look, I'm on top of the game.
What can I say?
I like to treat myself.
It's true.
It's better to have gold earrings than art coin right now.
Anyway, long story short for the listeners.
Bid Bitcoin when it's collapsing in on itself,
preferably between 73 and 78K,
and just wait.
Short Ethereum to zero.
Buy some puts,
and then throw darts at your watch list and pick any ultra short,
and you should be happy,
except for the RWA ones.
Yeah, I think some of these shorts,
like look at my favorite bellwether for shorts.
The thing that's down the most on my entire board today.
Can you guess what token it is, Avi?
Fartcoin?
Whiff?
Whiff, yeah, I was looking at Whiff.
Whiff is down 12%.
This thing is just the smoothest death spiral I've ever seen. I don't know.
I'm honestly, it's like, it pisses me off that I closed my short at $1. I shorted it at 120.
It went to a dollar. I was like 20%. That's great. Fuck. I reset my whiff short. I closed it for a
while. Then I reset it because without a whiff short, I felt naked. You know, sometimes when you have one of those positions that you take off and you just feel like, you feel like, feeling naked is one way to describe it.
Another way is like just something feels missing in your life without that position, you know?
Like you, I don't know.
I kind of feel that way about the whiff short yeah
that's fair all right dude all right you ready to call it i'm ready to call it i gotta i let's
let's do another one uh later this week yeah let's record on sunday like we usually do yeah
we'll record on sunday We had to do something.
It's an emergency stream for this crazy, crazy thing that happened.
All right.
All right.
Adios.
Adios.
Thank you, everybody.
Bye.
