Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
$115 Oil. $67K Bitcoin. 41% Recession Risk. | Market Check
Recorded: March 9, 2026 Duration: 1:10:49Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good morning everybody and Welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by BB.
There is no second best live YouTube stream to talk about the markets.
And we've got quite a bit to talk about, obviously.
A lot has occurred over the last one to two weeks. Not enough has occurred, apparently,
to leave this range on equities, but we are seeing some strength, of course, out of crypto.
So we have some very interesting things, I think, to discuss on today's stream.
I'm Snorlax. You guys also know me as Tommy. I'm joined by Prometheus and Louie. I don't know if I said it, but there is no second best live YouTube stream to talk about markets, by the way.
Welcome to Market Check, guys. Before we can get rolling, before we can discuss, is this the generational bottom?
Or are we still in the calm before the storm? Hit the like hit the like button for us guys uh so that we uh
i mean we'll discuss it regardless but uh you'd rather have us talk about you know risk crypto
equities and everything else in between than have to discuss soybeans today um i know prometheus
loves his soybeans though so maybe we still uh maybe we still end up discussing it. We've also
got Chef Jackis with us today as well. But yeah, hit the like button for us guys. Subscribe to the
channel if you haven't already. If you are a new viewer of Market Check, welcome. We do this show
throughout the week as, as I will repeat close towards the end of the show as well. But yeah,
as far as the market goes, guys, I mean, pretty interesting,
right? We got a gap down kind of to open the week in the S&P. We're now below 6,700. We've since
rebounded on the ensuing bull crush. They are trying to taco, right? Per se, they're trying
to suppress bull with actions, with words. Obviously, I don't want to get overly political with the show when
we're talking about something like the Middle East, but oil spiked all the way up to 110 to 120
per barrel, which is obviously a very significant move, a historically significant move, I believe.
I want to say that the level of volatility on oil right now is on par with some of the largest moves that it's ever
seen, right? Will this cause inflationary pressure within the United States and obviously other
areas of the world? I guess that's something that we can probably discuss. Will this have
any further impact on equities? Did this even matter for equities, right, in the grand scheme
of things? Or was this weakness probably already occurring before that happened? Or, you know, did we see Bitcoin and crypto once again,
front run another equities bottom? Like I said, a lot to discuss on today's show,
Bitcoin up four to 5%. How nice is it that for once we get to discuss crypto relative strength
rather than relative weakness? It's been a while. I feel like. I hate to say relative strength, though.
That's like the cursed verbiage at this point.
But yeah, I'm ready for the next few weeks, guys.
How are we doing?
What are we seeing in the markets?
Do we have any thoughts on everything that we've seen?
I mean, I'm sure we've got some thoughts at the very least on oil.
Yeah. Oil crazy move, crazy move.
What they blow some shit up over the weekend I heard.
But yeah, big move. I mean, obviously sold into overnight, pretty crazy.
I think Prometheus was saying and
i think you said it two times like this is the biggest move for oil measured move in like this
shorter period of time yeah pretty crazy um wouldn't be surprised if there's a local top here
um i think there's so many drawings but yeah this is one we caught we've been talking about
oil a lot blowing off here over the war um so we'll see right we'll see we're here i'm hearing
a lot of negative connotations about this i they it makes sense right but the stubborn bull in me also says, Hey, look, look, right. We oil pumped and
was in an uptrend the entire 2021 bull run. So, I mean, this is, you know, an exasperated move,
right? This is a one-off move, right? But this could lead to a longer term uptrend.
You know, does oil going up necessarily mean a bad thing? I don't know. Right. I mean,
obviously over the longterm, yeah, we don't want oil going up, but you know, oil was going up all
of 2021 and we had a raging bull market and risk assets. So we'll see, we'll see, but you know,
this is likely probably over for now until we get some consolidation pullback.
But yeah, pretty crazy move.
I'll tell you what, Louis.
I saw somebody post an Elliott wave of oil to like $400 a barrel over the next two or three years.
And when I saw that, I really should have hit the short button.
Yeah.
Yeah, yeah. That's a little wild. that i really should have i really i really should have hit the short button yeah yeah yeah
that's that's a little wild i mean like it's just not they're not gonna let it get there
right they're not gonna let it get there that like would like stop everything in the world
i feel like right when i saw that yeah yeah that's yeah that's that's not a thing um
but i mean hey we could be in a new range here right this could be our range
maybe we do come a little higher but you know this is this could be the new oil for rain oil
range for oil right maybe we do this for the next couple years who knows um it would be healthy i mean
i'm the oil expert right we caught the trade that was great i'm no expert but yeah that was one hell
of a trade man yeah that was pretty well that was a wild move shout out the jackas too we cooked
that up together um so yeah lower time frame getting some some gap backfill here right wouldn't be surprised if we
see a little reaction here maybe a push back up i'd be surprised if we just burj khalifa this pump
i feel like i feel like we'll probably hang up here for a bit yeah we'll find a floor at some
point i would be i'd be pretty surprised if we go back up to the highs. Maybe we see it
pinned between 90 to maybe 100, 105 would be my guess. The move is completely unsustainable.
I don't know if you guys pulled... I was on the phone. I apologize, but I don't know if you guys pulled i was on the phone i apologize but i don't know if you guys pulled up oil volatility um yeah what is that sound ovx ovx yeah ov um ovx yep ovx yeah huge move
and you get these blowouts i mean it's the same with you know if you're just looking at regular
volatility vix you get the huge blowouts i mean, price can't sustain itself after you have a move like this. It's going to implode or it's going to range. We'll see what happens. But yeah,
we killed the trade. Great trade. Wow. Look at COVID, man. I guess this was the move down.
To negative. Yeah. I was going to say, it didn't go up that it went up but it wasn't
like we saw recently but this is probably the negative oil prices you weren't paid to take
barrels of oil into your home in 2020. dude i would have loved physical barrels of oil
I'm a land man overnight.
i'm a land man overnight
Yeah, that's pretty good.
And that wasn't even the biggest event that happened this weekend, guys.
I mean, I don't know if you saw, but the ASU frat leader got frame-mogged brutally over the weekend.
I'm sorry, man.
That stuff is just, I find it so funny.
I don't want to divert from the show for too long.
But yeah, that stuff cracks me up.
Zoomers speak.
Yeah, it is kind of funny.
Some of the stuff I see, I don't follow it.
It's funny.
It's good that they're not all, you know it's not that bad right they're promoting you know
being jacked you know looking good i don't hate it could be worse i guess
could be worse could be worse yeah
they could just be nerds who stare at charts all day you know
they could just be
nerds who stare at charts all day
you know
why not both
exactly
so we've gapped down
yeah
we gapped down
we did
here comes the taco attempt
yep fake taco nobody likes fake meat
what would the taco be there horse meat taco nobody likes fake meat
i had some of the best tacos ever had yesterday at this mexican place very good
are they authentic i have to ask a question are Are you one of the people who are averse to cilantro?
No, I eat pretty much anything.
I am.
You are?
It tastes like soap for me.
Yeah.
Soap?
Yeah.
Yeah.
No, I don't mind it.
But yeah, it was delicious.
But anyways, you just said tacos.
Remind me of that.
But yeah, so what would the taco trade be?
This?
Yeah, I mean, the taco trade is nothing ever happens.
We'll crush back to new highs, right?
Right.
Now, does this make sense to you guys?
Because I know I'm more of a crypto native tree i mean
now you guys are too but like does untapped highs on an index like the s p like mean anything
i mean there's no we're gonna go take them out
because it goes up only forever yeah but it's not as like fluid or i don't think it's as
mechanical as crypto um yeah i don't think it's i think it's less so should be i think it should
less so be looked at as like liquidity and more so be looked at as like momentum right
that makes sense yeah and there's clearly liquidity there yeah there is well yeah people
stepped in and you know and none of these shorts or puts have been tested at all like if you look
back at the last time we had a significant drop like we ran the highs right yeah you ran your highs
you had your bull trap you stayed there for a day or two ran everything then we dropped right
so i don't know what does uh 22 look like let's go back and see. I think 2022 did technically run the highs.
Yeah.
Yeah, we did the same thing.
We ran the highs.
Full trap.
Back below.
Bang.
So there might be something there, right?
There might be something there.
We'll see. Right um we'll see right we'll see um yeah it looks like honestly on
most drops it kind of does right like even like this little drop right run the highs bang this
drop run the highs bang i don't know that's i was like i did i did a x post on this i did a thread i've never done a
thread before um just some thoughts on the s p and like that was one thing i talked about like
if this is a major inflection point high let me go on the daily and all this like would they
actually leave these you know these highs on taps right you know, is this a setup for a short squeeze?
You know, I don't know.
But it's something to note.
I thought it was interesting.
This would be criminal, right, if they did this.
Oh, my goodness.
Could you imagine?
Oh, yeah. It's kind of what they do yeah well i mean we could imagine yeah i i can imagine any level of pain at this point coming from equities right like
we're literally in it's it's a hotel california range man we are we checked out but we're still like in the lobby per se
we haven't left a larger range like we're leaving this small like we left the hotel room but i feel
like we're still in the hotel you know i i am still thinking things are fried personally but
it's just me i mean we too there's like you think you backfill cme gap you think backfilling gaps
on bitcoin is important go look at the statistics on the smp it's nuts um i mean it is nuts and it
happens generally a lot quicker but i i still think equities are pretty fried here, honestly. I think crypto is putting up a great fight for what it's worth.
But I mean, man, I just, I like look at the value that we've lost across the board on like almost everything now.
And I'm just like, goodness gracious.
And we didn't really get the systematic blowout and volatility.
You know what I'm saying?
Yeah.
Like it was not all right we
didn't get the big unwind we just got like this systematic grind higher maybe it is one of those
things where like tommy thinks and i don't know if you guys think it as well where we like take
out some of the shorts you know crush some of the premium and volatility and then uh you know send
it send it back we'll see i don't know it's hard it's really hard for me to imagine
and to caesar fine here i just i can't see them keep crushing bull or at the very least keep the
market elevated until closer to expiration later this morning and i think jim carson said as much
last week um i mean it's just always a hot spot for volatility, right?
How we trade into and out of expiration.
So it might take until,
especially given all the hedging that we've now probably had come into the
market over the last two weeks on war fears, oil spiking.
They might try to burn some of those hedges off over the next one to two
weeks into that period.
Yeah. That's kind of what I was saying too.
Yesterday or Saturday, it feels as if a lot of shorts have piled in.
Yeah, look at the VIX, man.
Yeah, that's what that represents.
And they haven't been tested or challenged.
Is it that easy? Maybe it could be. Maybe the market's just ready to go you never know um but it's one of those like
discrepancies in the market like there's kind of like it's like what's either one's going to be
reality and one's going to be fiction what do i mean by that is like you have volatility and short positioning extremely heightened right i mean there's a huge skew
now um from a positioning standpoint with shorts you know i mean tons of shorts like record highs
um and short positions but granted i mean the market's always growing so the market's always growing, so the number's always going to continue to get larger. But versus, you know, the ES is not really made like a significant pullback yet, you know, like the ES from its highs is only down.
It's down less than 5%.
You know, I mean, if you pull it to where we're at right now, it's I mean, only down five percent you know and volatility's i mean hit 30 and so one's gonna be one's gonna be reality and one's
gonna be fiction and what it's you know either es is gonna nuke or volatility is gonna completely
implode and um maybe it was overblown i mean if you would have asked me two three weeks ago when
i was positioning for like the iran war um i would have said i two, three weeks ago when I was positioning for like the Iran war,
I would have said, I mean, the ES would be down at my target 6,300 already. And, you know,
if you would have told me, I mean, it'd only be down 5% off of its highs, less than 5% off its highs after everything's kind of all said and done. And, you know, I would say there's no way.
Let's say there's no way. If you say there's no way if you gave me the exact,
like the current events of what has already happened.
So it's been resilient.
I will say it's been resilient.
I think, you know,
the way I'm kind of viewing it is I never like the Middle East war was never necessarily a part of my thesis, personally, for the bearish trade.
I think the unwinds that we're seeing are kind of more liquidity and positioning related, especially what we've seen so far in crypto.
I'll keep beating the drum.
As long as D-VOL is elevated and in an uptrend, I think Bitcoin remains in a downtrend.
That can change,
obviously. But that's, I think, the most basic way that I'm viewing kind of the mechanics
of crypto at the moment. And so equities, I think, are the same. It's just kind of like
this domino effect. But what it does do, right? I mean, you guys mentioned it. A lot of bearish
positioning did come into the market over the last one to two weeks.
So there is fuel for bull crush and it could continue to prolong a correction or maybe maybe it does end up bottoming the market.
That's just not really my expectation. Right. Because like I said, it was never really a part of my thesis necessarily that we were going to see this war in the Middle East or God.
I mean, God knows I wasn't expecting a spike on oil up to 120 per barrel yeah yeah i was expecting that but maybe
not that quick yeah yeah like this was the when you think about how long oil has been traded for
When you think about how long oil has been traded for, this has been the biggest weekly upside in history.
Yeah, it's just insane.
It's just insane.
I mean, it really does remind me so much, like mechanically, of that ETH pump in May 2024.
Yeah, you're right.
When JP was positioned for an ETF announcement,
and then you just had like a 30% daily candle on it.
I just love how in the past few months,
everyone was a gold trader,
then everyone became a silver trader,
and now everyone's an oil trader.
I kind of like it though.
I like that we're seeing some horizons expanded.
I would...
People are just talking about...
If people became crypto traders again.
People are just talking about...
Because the algorithm sucks so bad nowadays.
Like, people just talk about anything that's trending.
True.
To be honest, no one's really actually trading it successfully.
Maybe they are, but I haven't seen much of it.
I hear a lot of talk.
I was discussing with lots of people their experience on Twitter
since Elon took over with people that have been there before.
And there is nearly 100% consensus that since Elon took over, it's worse.
Yeah.
It's definitely more like it's almost rage baiting you, you know?
Yes.
I don't know how to describe it any other way like
the the x timeline is almost trying to like constantly rage bait you into a state of
frustration and you can see especially with like some of the older traders that i see on x they're
just like they got one-shotted they got totally one-shotted by the algorithm yeah i mean like what do you know how they say that
in any good economy you need clear rules that are like easy to follow for entrepreneurs
otherwise you know if you keep messing up with the regulation becomes like
tough for entrepreneurs to work in that economy
because they cannot calculate you know and predict their future prices and so forth i feel it's the
same with you know for content creators like obviously bots are going to adapt the first
but but for people it's really tough to keep adapting to new algo change every single month
really tough to keep adapting to new algo change every single month and that's what has created
this because for the most part you will have you know like honest content creators who just want to
keep adding content and they cannot keep up you know to like appeal to the algo all the time
and they they're gonna learn something as a habit like yeah you know whatever
the algo wants me you know for my followers to keep on pressing like right i'll tell them press
the like and then the algo will change and it will need to comment and then the algo will change and
you will need to write articles and you're like what do i do right? Yeah. And then you'll need to run spaces.
And if you, it's like, you know what?
Just let me do my stuff, man.
Yeah.
Unfortunately, you wanted to see tweets just from your following,
but what you got was rage bait, political,
and some of the most heinous content on earth.
Yeah, it's like I used to come to X to learn.
And now it's worse than watching the news, I feel like.
What you can do nowadays, though, which is pretty good, but the problem is that most people don't know about it.
most people don't know about it.
I didn't even know about it.
I didn't even know about it.
And I'm on X every single day,
I'm on X every single day.
that you can type the following page on the right side.
So you have like the for you,
and then you have the following.
And when you click on the following,
you can change it from popular to recent.
Yeah.
But how many people do that?
And it does reset often for you again.
It's like I don't even notice that I'm doing it until I'm like maybe a minute or two in. I'm like I just wasted my time
looking at these old tweets.
Yep.
Well,
I got a green buy signal on the daily for MicroStrategy.
On the meat stick?
On the meat stick.
Interesting.
Look at that puppy right there.
Saw there was a bit for Sailor's Bonds.
Remember in periods of economic and political unrest
you want to go long
Michael Saylor's fixed income vehicles
I stole that joke from
a friend
so I can't take credit for it
but I found it funny
it might be
so crazy it just might work
yeah
yeah this is i mean i can see a squeeze on this
how fast it happens who knows but you know did he buy over the weekend yeah bought a bill
bought a cool billy Did he buy over the weekend? Yeah. Bought a bill.
Bought a cool billy.
What a Chad.
Yeah, I'll tell you what.
He really is just shutting everyone the fuck up.
He's just like, I don't give a shit, and I'm going to keep buying.
And he's doing it.
He's just still doing it.
He's a maniac.
He really is. I have a meme for this
let's see it all right
yeah that fact that or it's the 20iq thing see he's got no risk right he either becomes one of the richest men in the world or microst strategy blows up and he's still rich
he probably goes to prison if it blows up right i don't know maybe not
the only the only way it blows up is uh i mean like bitcoin vol Vol and MicroStrategy Price have been like they've been so tightly bound over the last few months.
Because at the end of the day, I've said this before, like his product is selling Bitcoin volatility effectively, holding Bitcoin and then simultaneously making money on Bitcoin volatility decreasing
as it's an institutionalized asset.
That's basically MicroStrategy's thesis.
So if we ever see – if D-Bull is done going higher,
then MicroStrategy's probably bottomed.
But if it's not, then obviously we're not out of the woods yet.
Need that Chud Jack meme?
I haven't heard it one in a long time.
Wait, where are you?
Still in a range.
Me, when I look at the S&P.
What do you guys think?
Is it one more sweep of the lows?
I mean, I think so. Maybe not one more sweep of the lows no and I think so maybe not one more but this is actually reminding me of something for that yes
oh look at that look at that they're both kind of coming out of like a bottoming base too anyway
yeah well you you had that third sweep on coinbase which i think is an extra bonus
i do see why you see the similarity i think they are slightly different of course but i think the
outcome the outcome might be the same yeah and i personally to think that coin is probably bottomed here
yeah i think that would be the most entertaining outcome
But if you could, if you're speaking about, you know, we have few flagship stock crypto products, right?
but if you could
And let's say you're bullish.
Which one would you buy?
Right?
Is it Coinbase?
Is it Hood?
Is it MSTR?
Is it BMNR?
Or is it KTZ LUT ARC, perhaps?
Hell no.
I think if you're buying a DAT, it should be PER, probably.
But I'm really not familiar with their product, necessarily.
It's just more of a bet on Hyperliquid.
Because if we go up, I mean, Hyperliquid never broke market structure at least it hasn't yet so it's probably positioned to move faster and better i think than
something like coinbase or probably even a bnb what i'm doing is i'm pretty much longing a basket of all of them
uh including the bitcoin miners as well um cover all my bait kind of like how i i that's kind of
how i uh what's the word i'm looking for here That's kind of how I approach crypto as well. I will buy a handful of altcoins that are all slightly different,
that cover a lot of different niches and sectors within the broader ecosystem.
Because these things do take turns running.
Sometimes the Bitcoin miners will be running.
Sometimes exchange will be running.
Sometimes just your treasury miners will be running sometimes you know exchange will be running sometimes you know just your treasury companies will be running so i think owning a basket of all
of them i think circle should be included in that obviously i think circles bottomed oh yeah this
thing's a beast up another eight percent today i don't think it goes slower anymore like lower than
the low yeah i would love to buy some spot like if it gets if
you get a pullback like sub 100 but that's if you know but yeah like i am like i'm long micro
strategy i'm long coinbase i'm long samara i'm long some bm and r you know i'm along some circles meta planet one that's a little
under the radar this is like pretty much micro strategy
just a little under the radar but pretty sure they got a crap ton of bitcoin
what do you guys think of gme by the way do you think it ever has a run again
i am long gme yeah i do so so funny to me various short stocks and long gme
like that's that's the type of shit you would do back when on chain coins were pumping
you know what i mean yeah this um i think this is going to happen i don't know if it's going to be
a 2021 style-esque or what we saw back in 2024 this big move right um but i think this has a
date with higher um over time the fundamentals have never been stronger on this that company
believe it or not it's not just a meme stock anymore.
They have over $8 billion on the balance sheet.
Pretty sure they own some Bitcoin and they're planning on acquiring assets.
And they're also adding new revenue streams.
They're getting into collectibles, which is really big, NFTs, all that stuff.
collectibles which is really big nfts all that stuff um and i think they're you know there's
rumor that they're going to acquire a company relatively soon but yeah i like it i'm long
i also think that gme is going to pump later this year um
this year.
One thing, though, that
I think they were
trying to do on GME
is kill all the options
traders. Because there's
been lots of people who were
long,
having
calls for
let's say 40,
And everyone saw many times that the pump is going to come already,
and they got burned on that, right?
If you are sitting in spot, you can sit comfy, just kind of sit it out.
But those options burn out to zero.
And I think that the pump will eventually come,
but not until like
people and maybe the time is has already come or is close but i think people need to burn
first on those options yeah yeah a lot of that was this
i think so yeah it's kind of fascinating too like the fundamentals have never been better and
um i feel like it's had less attention than it's had in the past four years you know yeah no like
the only thing that really has like kind of brought it back a little bit recently is like
the michael berry like he's been talking about it but other than that still very much under the radar yeah what did he say about it he's long
gme yeah long jamie looking for a massive short squeeze do you know who's also long
gmailie and charles charles schwab oh really a lot of big names are
oh really a lot of big names are
yeah i follow this guy on x um what's his name like reese so they have 8 billion or 9 billion
on the balance sheet yeah like 8 billion they're valued at 11 i mean that's a low multiple
yeah i wonder what their debt's looking like though have debt um but they've
also increased like revenue as well okay aren't they switching their model too like a business
model a little bit yeah which is good i mean that needs to happen yeah yeah and i think there's like some new like like acquisition potential in the pipeline right
it's hearsay but dude imagine if we get another 2021 gme moment that would be glorious i'd love
that honestly this is what kept me a little bullish as well back here um obviously it
shouldn't have been as you know it was a little early but when i saw this
breaking out i was like all right we have gme breaking out i mean it was a local breakout
didn't run yet but you know what this looks like what you know what this looks like too it looks
like oil yeah this literally looks identical to the oil trade we just had on yeah yeah i love
these you know i'm a wedge guy i know yeah i know
you like your triangles your range low everyone gets bearish down here oh it's great it's the
best setup the problem is trying to time it it's hard yeah timing yeah this guy said is this white
white coffee accumulation yeah this looks like a classic you know range white coffee accumulation
you get your range high range low you get another deviation range high you get your slow bleed down
into range lows and then you get the expansion that's exactly what this is good good eye um
but yeah that's one i've been i've been trying to play this for a while i caught this move that
was nice but didn't capitalize enough it got wrecked they they shot this down real quick
um but now trying again so we'll see but so far so good so far so good i think burry's uh he just longed adobe too adbe
this one's a little sketchier i do not want to buy this i i look at uh gme it looks like you know i see i see the long opportunity and then i look at adobe and i'm like what are we doing like
this is the i'm loving it even for me yeah they're getting the you know the the golden arches the
the big arch the mcdonald's job application jackass i don't know if you understood any of
those references but those are all mcdonald's of course i have okay okay i don't know if you you get those glorious american ads over in check
i mean this is uh you know if you start doing this right like back inside
but like i just like like it's just gonna make new highs i don't know i do i'm good on i'm staying
away like i think this is like just degen positioning in my opinion i mean this could
be another like backwards white off reaccumulation too technically yeah i just i i mean re-rating or
revaluing these companies after ai is coming out and no floor
no confirmation of a floor is put in like i want to give it give it some time man i mean you could
sit in i mean sure it could range here but i mean it could range here for you know a year or two
before you see any meaningful upside i'm just like i'll i'll stay away i'll use my money elsewhere
yeah they'll probably adopt ai i mean i probably are right but they'll probably have some big
headline news it'll spot you right and then maybe you can catch it if it is going to do that but
yeah like but all these these new ai like like i mean you're able to create like anything you want
with ai with prompts like who needs adobe yeah i gotta cancel my subscription i have one i think
for uh like that is expensive like it is not a cheap subscription either
yeah like or the like high quality you know um that all the uh like marker marketers use
for photoshop i mean it's an expensive membership man
yeah they're gonna have to reevaluate that
speaking of
then uh mcdonald's is at pretty much new all-time highs yeah man like that's so funny because everyone was saying to short this stock after the ceo thing
perma bleed up
i will say it got me to go eat a hamburger over the weekend but i did not get a mcdonald's hamburger this is a crazy chart dude
that is crazy chart literally up only i mean covid was like a wick wow
dude you literally got like for mcdonald's it was like
you got like two weeks to buy the bottom and then it was like oh
you didn't get that we're back up pushing up the highs
i mean is this like your blow off here
and you had a weekly bearish and goal yeah i don't know man i just keep doing more of this though
yeah yeah exactly you know you got it here you got it here and it just did this you know it's
like texas roadhouse like are you gonna bet against the american glutton like absolutely not yeah
diabetes going on.
Louis.
Sorry.
Go ahead, guys.
Go ahead, Jackis.
Go ahead, guys.
No, no, after you.
No, no, Jackis, please, please, please.
After you, Jackis. No, I've paid. Jackis, Jackis, please, please, please. No, no, no.
After you, Jackis.
No, after you.
Jackis, Jackis, Jackis, so good.
All right, Tommy, take it.
All right, Tommy, Tommy, Tommy.
What's up?
We had a situation when there was a log, and then all three of us literally started talking at the same time, and then we were like, you take the mic.
No, you take the mic.
No, he takes the mic.
And then you joined in literally.
Hot potato.
I also fixed my battery issue on my computer, so that's a good thing.
My Wi-Fi was out for a second
dude hyperliquid is a meat sticking right now yeah this yeah this is um
arthur hayes getting super bullish on hyperliquid too
um not that people are buying it but yeah this is a this is like a solid buy i mean
it's a solid buy and like regardless but it's like you're you're trading back above 35 like
you shouldn't be looking for this anymore yeah it's hard to imagine you should be looking for a continuation higher
yeah bitcoin made uh you know new lows and hyper liquid freaking went up
i was i missed 25 close i missed it i fumbled the bag i would have had because i caught this that was beautiful and then i had a long and i closed it like a
little and then now it's going but yeah this is about 35 is um very bullish yeah i agree
it's probably honestly i mean i could see it being able to just shake off that distribution
i could see it like all the supply that we created throughout uh 25
yes yeah just shake all that supply off i mean i could see it it's this is you can't ignore the
strength you can't no can't and
it's just getting more and more used like especially with all the commodities and
they're adding stocks are going to probably continue to add stocks like
dude did you see uh the open interest on oil on it it was like how high was it it was insane
um i can't remember the exact number but they
did a comparison versus it and coinbase and like literally nobody's using coinbase
yeah
i will say a lot of these commodities getting listed on crypto exchanges
has been great top signals.
Oh, yeah.
It's like, here you go, crypto traders.
Have fun.
So funny.
Especially when they get listed on Binance.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Hyperliquid is a clear winner right now for perps
nothing beats a man like i have no money on coinbase and i use like their futures
um and i thought i liked them and then the other day i like tried to enter a z cash short and it was like something like something funds annual
yada yada yada and i'm like what are you talking about i'm like just take my money
i was like i have plenty on there just just give me the position um
and then also too just from like a sizing perspective man like i'm like i go to
position in like my brokerage like my equity brokerage and i just like can't get the size i
want like or i can't get the rather i can't get the capital efficiency i want you know i'm like
i'm like i want to use less capital on this trade but like I don't want options here you know right
it's like why perps are so nice man and use just like fraction of your portfolio and get you know
this is however much size you want yeah yeah that's what leverage is supposed to be used for right
capital efficiency but we all use it for degenerate gambling
i'd say yes it does
i'd say so
it's kind of hard to want to buy Monero right now.
Yeah, stay away in my opinion.
Yeah, I'm out, man.
I'm not really wanting to touch Monero at the moment, but I'll root for it.
This is hard to come back from, but I mean, anything's possible.
Anything is possible akg
what do you think about tron you guys see what i put in the chat yes on saturday uh let me take a
look i got louis talking about tron again dude i missed a long run. I love Tron living. This is a high time frame uptrend.
Like, one of the only altcoins, especially high caps, that is in a high time frame uptrend.
Like, you can't deny it.
It's crazy.
Justin's son, my man, was cleared of criminal wrongdoing.
I don't even know how, but he was.
He's study the goat.
Study the goat study the goat but i mean this is if we get a nice um
push here you know this is looking decent for continuation we still never backfilled this wick
i don't even know what to make of this chart to be honest yeah i uh i feel like it should be breaking down pretty soon if it's going to or else
you know it's painting a pretty good case to want to be a buy
it dude's just systematically stair-stepping yep study crime yeah i mean literally
this is probably more crime than binance honestly
yeah i think so well just maybe not on like emotional level but like
from like a i think from like a overall like market share percentage right because there's
a lot of people
that trade bnb nobody trades tron right and so you got to think like the majority of like
the trading is probably sun and i mean that probably makes up the majority of all the volume
being done it's it's mainly as far as i'm as far as i know and, and I'm pretty sure this is true, but this is mainly how a lot of Asian investors onboard their tether through Trump.
Oh, really?
Yeah.
Um, yeah.
Yeah.
So that's the main use case.
keeps going up.
I don't know.
You know, what do you guys think about Asian markets right now?
Speaking of, yeah, I don't know.
So we're seeing some pullbacks obviously in South Korean stocks and Japanese stocks.
What is it? Kslop? What? we're seeing some pullbacks obviously in south korean stocks and japan what is that
kslop what how do you spell their indices is it kslop cosby cosby cosby isn't the nikki
nikki the ni225 is japan oh that's not what i'm doing it's the nike i mean i pronounced it incorrectly for like
two straight years i was like i gotta figure out how to say this if i'm gonna be using it
did you call it nikki i think i think i just said like i don't know how to pronounce this
but i'm gonna call it the nikki uh-oh is that baba yeah
do you see what i see
baba let's see
the cosby looks horrible, by the way.
I would not touch that.
You had a blow off top.
Oh, yeah.
I think Baba.
I mean, you accept.
I mean, you don't find a bounce here in Baba soon.
I mean, you're going to be coming down.
Yeah, you got to bounce here.
It's like 107 is the level i got i think i ran the whole iran thing like i think that negatively impacts china more than anybody
that's what i read anyways yeah because the oil right they get all their oil from them
them in Russia
I don't think Billy looks horrible here
I think Billy looks a lot better
but again like must
bounce from level
otherwise 21
4 next and then 1775 must bounce from level yeah otherwise 21
for next and then 1775 below that i mean you would have expected honestly to
kind of not have retraced here as deep with the high time frame accumulation we had
kind of looks like eath at each fractal i just showed coming off the lows where it did this
got out of the bear market lows made a base ran above it came back to the lows and then
that's a that's super rare that doesn't really happen but it does look like it yeah what is and so I don't even know what to
think about that chart man I'm almost getting like hold on I mean is it like the PayPal chart
not really no not really somewhat but not really oh man
PayPal
it's pretty similar
it's ugly
I think PayPal probably
declares bankruptcy at some point
really
they're going to get acquired
yeah
GameStop can buy yeah that could be one
that's gonna happen that'd be pretty crazy i just don't know anybody that uses paypal anymore
yeah like i mean everybody i know uses zelle like anybody that's using like business transactions
or from a professional stance uses L like friend transfers
it's like cash app or
Venmo
you know yeah
man look at Walmart
just an absolute monster
Walmart in Mexico David Levinson talking about Walmart walmart walmart in mexico
do they have david levinson talking about walmart
yeah he had a he had a little bit of an episode
did he yeah it's like uh we had this guy on spaces and just a little Mike Alfredo gremlin.
Was it that big one AI guy?
Yeah.
And he was just telling David to shut up the whole time.
And David's like, how dare you have somebody on the spaces that I blocked and muted?
How dare you allow them to speak over me?
Yeah, a little much
sometimes i don't know if he's joking or serious but like i'm never not entertained
i know i think most of the time he's serious yeah i need to get him on a youtube episode david
i got trader mercury tomorrow we're gonna do a video of him oh nice dude we should pull them on
market checks yeah i'm gonna talk to him about it too when he um you know tell me he can come on
anytime simple clean moving average guy. Gotta love it.
Such an easy life, man.
I mean, such an easy life.
Much easier than a fractal chud.
Yeah.
Am I crazy for wanting to short hype here i mean i know i'm crazy for even thinking about that with
the relative strength but like i mean you just took out those highs i think so in theory it
shouldn't be breaking the highs from damn that was in early february i hate this uh i hate this ranging price action
it's the absolute worst i don't even know what to make a hype honestly like i'm like i look at
equities and i'm like i don't want to be long anything and then i look at the news that came out like bitcoin is holding up really well and i'm like
man i mean bulls i mean bears is something to prove they really do
but i mean we could just range for another like 60 days to you know what I'm saying yeah
prometheus have you been seeing all the uh the oarfish washing up recently
um no I've not study really
oh in Japan oh yes okay yes i understand now yes yes i understand now i understand now yes
wow dude that candle on oil is just insane
that's unbelievable I'll do that candle on oil is just insane.
That's unbelievable.
Do you guys in the in the audience have anything in particular you want us to check out?
What do fish washing up in Japan mean?
Study the oarfish lore.
They're super sick fish, for one.
Yeah, they're crazy looking.
Can we look at Pepe?
I don't know if we have Louis at the buttons at the moment.
I'll take a look at it right now, though.
I still don't like the look of Pepe, man.
At least here's what I would, I'll tell you guys,
what I want to see out of alts is for the last few months, really ever since October.
But I think you could argue probably even before that, you know,
we've had these like systematic cell programs on these higher timeframes.
And I think you can really see this when you look at something like Sui as well.
Right. These like exchange altcoins, quote unquote, which is funny because Pepe obviously didn't used to be an exchange altcoin, but now it kind of is by default.
We've had these systematic sell-offs in alts for the
last few months. And every time we kind of fire into these trending EMAs to the downside, we've
been selling off more. There hasn't really been that much strength in the bid when we get there.
For me, my signal to bid alts is going to be a change in that behavior it's going to be when we start
to see i don't even think we need to see these trends shift necessarily um like the ema's shift
that is like curling up etc etc i think you just need to see a change in behavior to indicate that
there is demand for a given all coin absolutely no need to just buy you know whatever worked 12 or 24 months ago
because that does not mean it's going to work in the next six or 12 months you just need to let
the market show you what's going to and it won't take much for it to show you you know or for it
to show its hand right um you just need to see what the market likes and the market
will let you know what it likes really quickly and if you're just paying attention to it i mean you
you're not going to be like late to the party you know a lot of people fear that need to get in i
need to get in you know before moves and um you know but the only move that's happening is down right for a majority of them so
it kind of looks like coinbase a little bit a little different but
yeah like link's not going anywhere.
Oh, PayPal owns Venmo?
Interesting.
I didn't know that.
I don't have buys on Link here.
I'm going to get old here.
Hold this base stops below here hope to play it back
ton it was ton yeah same spot a lot of these alts are sitting at you know pretty big levels that they should hold
need to hold put it that way
dude yeah holy shit that chart
that okay hold on let me look at the chart before i throw it out
there let me make sure is that not just like arbitrum but i guess maybe not not. I mean, Arbitrum I think did this, right?
Is that what you're talking
about?
No, I kind of felt like it's
after that. Yeah, could
Arbitrum barely
made a new high, though.
I was so bullish on Arbitrum in
2023. It was such a fail.
I'm not going to blame you for being optimistic about tech.
Yeah.
I took a, I mean, obviously I was bullish on STX as a, through Puppets as a proxy, so.
OP, so I think got wrecked recently.
I want to say Coinbase is pivoting away from them.
They are.
That feels significant.
Oof.
That didn't happen.
I don't think optimism is ever coming back.
The token.
No way.
Absolutely not.
The token.
The token. Important clarification. that is zero an absolute zero
seeing a ridiculous buyback i will say what oh this morning on equities. Oh, yeah. Wow, that's actually...
Yeah, gap is filled.
Holy shit.
You know how Mondays go.
Yeah.
I mean, this held pretty nice.
I am not surprised that they did this.
I had a feeling this was going to happen.
This is one of my scenarios i outlined in my in my bit in my s p thread
a gentleman and a scholar
but yeah this actually kind of held pretty nicely this is is pretty clean continuation here if this can hold.
Wow.
Let's look at the S&P.
Kenneth Walker to sign with the
Chiefs boys studying.
Oh, nice. Kenneth Walker to the
Chiefs. You know what? I'll take that
because that means you're not drafting Jeremiah
Love. Yep.
Bless.
No, I think that's better.
I think it's better for the league if you don't draft Jeremiah Love.
No, no, no.
Study, study.
I hate drafting rookies.
I think it's a horrible way to expect to win championships.
Jeremiah Love is nasty, bro.
Jeremiah Love is nasty, bro.
You need to trade for proven talent.
I'm a big Kenneth Walker guy, though, dating back to his Michigan State days.
He's a beast.
He's a dude.
I drafted him in fantasy this year.
I saw the vision.
I took my fourth-round pick.
I didn't expect Charbonnet to take all of his usage,
or at least in the Reds. Yeah, you got stuck in a committee, bro.
You got stuck in a committee.
That is never where you want to be.
That he balled out in the Super Bowl is honestly a bit poetic.
Yeah.
I think the Dow is still the canary here by the way yeah 100 absolutely especially with oil doing
what it's doing this definitely had the biggest sell-off it looks like you were right tommy
you said this was a short i hated this, because Dow puts were way more expensive than everything else.
I guess it was kind of a tell, but still, very clear short, overpriced puts.
I faded my own call with the Dow short,
but I'm kind of using it more as
confluence at this point.
Trump's supposed to hold a conference at
5.30 p.m. Eastern Time.
Love it.
What do you think he's going to say?
Oh my God. It's going to be something about oil.
It's going to be
our job in Iran is done. Oil is going to be cheap. It's going to be... Our job in Iran is done.
Oil is going to be cheap.
Yeah, it's going to be fake taco time.
Nobody likes fake meat.
You don't like horse meat taco?
I don't like cow eyeballs. I'm okay.
I already know there's going to be so many people chasing the eyes today
now that we flipped green.
Yeah.
You should, this kind of reminds me of, I go back to this,
go to like the, obviously way different, I think, but not so much.
This kind of walk-up we're getting.
Capfil kind of reminds me like the march april lows
obviously had a bigger sell-off but like gap down walk up right and then it went and then everyone chasing the first bounces gets wrecked man i remember that bounce i uh i'd been buying some calls
a little too early and i ended up puking them before that uh before the first taco
this one yes this one was strong too it's big bounce i i knew they were gonna revert the market
but yeah it was a little bit too early there ended up puking like probably a day or two before the
first taco fair bit of pnl was lost the best this was my best trading performance in in uh 2025 was like
accumulating these lows
you won the war before it even started we won it was it was beautiful did you hear what you're saying he's like um he's like
we took out two of their leaders they're on their third
you want to miss it through their window in the living room we'll put one right through
the living room window except they have 17 warships all are at the bottom of the ocean
all are at the bottom of the ocean.
But other than that, they're doing quite well.
Jesus Christ.
What goes on, man?
You guys want to wrap it up?
Yeah.
That's probably a good spot to wrap it up.
Wrap things up right here.
Hopefully you guys enjoyed the stream today.
Covered so many different
what they're not hitting like smash the like before they leave absolutely if you guys haven't smashed the like button already please please do so we're always very appreciative when you do that
uh you help our channel continue to get more and more exposure. We continue to bring you guys this content totally for free. So if you did enjoy it, hit the like button, subscribe to the channel
if you haven't done so already. A reminder that we do market check though throughout the week when
the New York Stock Exchange is open on the following days, Monday, Wednesday, Thursday,
and Friday. Our typical start time is around 1130 to 1140 a.m. Eastern Standard. So we'll catch you
guys again on Wednesday. Maybe something, maybe something has happened. Maybe nothing has happened,
right? Shud Jack mode. I guess we'll find out. But regardless, we'll be here throughout the week
and obviously throughout the year to cover it all with you, with you guys. And ladies, if you,
if you're in the eye, if you, I laugh, there are probably no ladies watching the stream ladies, if you're in the audience. I laugh. There are probably no ladies
watching the stream, but if you are, thank you, of course, for tuning in.
Also, make sure to tune in for Market Talk hosted by the legendary King Wabi.
Might see David Levinson there at some point this week, speaking of.
Who knows?
But regardless, guys, I'm sure with all the volatility that we're seeing in the markets right now,
Market Talk is going to be a great place to wrap up your day and your afternoon.
Our typical start time is around 3.30 to 3.45 p.m. Eastern Standard. So make sure to stay following and subscribe to both Wabi and BecauseBitcoinOnX
so you could be notified when we begin those spaces.
Thanks again for tuning in, guys.
We hope you have a great rest of your Monday, a great rest of your week,
and of course, stay safe.
