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5 Red Months. March Could Tie the Record. | Market Check
Recorded: March 25, 2026 Duration: 1:13:08Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by BB.
There is no second best live YouTube stream to talk about the markets.
We're going to have another great show in store for you all today.
I was hoping we'd get a little bit more volatility when we left on Monday.
I think I made a joke that we wouldn't.
Here we are, I think, trading
at about the same price. But obviously, that's not to say that things have not happened. I do
think we've seen kind of a lot of movement across risk assets, obviously headlines, and oil. So
we'll talk about plenty today. We're gonna have a great show for you all. But first, I'm Snorlax. You guys also know
me as Tommy. I'm joined by Max and, of course, Big Country Tuck. And yeah, before we can get
started today, I'm going to ask if you guys can hit the like button for us. Subscribe to the
channel if you haven't done so already, but I'm going to assume most of you who are watching at
this point have already subbed to the channel. But if you could hit the like button for us,
we would be forever appreciative. And yeah, I mean, we were nice enough to give you the
agriculture alpha, but that's, it looks bullish, even though we're not even looking at soybeans
these days very often. But, you know, if you don't hit the like button, maybe we, maybe we
have to remind. Regardless, though, going to have a great show for you guys today. Welcome back to Market Check.
At one point, I think indices were up like half a percent to a percent today.
Bitcoin, I think almost tagged 72K.
Maybe it did come all the way up there this morning.
I'm not quite sure.
Seemed like Bitcoin was actually leading the way over most altcoins.
From what I could observe, at least I think it's given a much bigger pump over the last few days than something like Ethereum. Really everything kind
of pumping on the news that we got yesterday that it's like maybe there's a ceasefire,
maybe there's not. We don't really know exactly what the headlines are, what the intentions are.
Are we going to get a peace agreement between the two
sides? I'd say probably not, but that doesn't mean that kind of like this back and forth job
owning can't cause these very volatile swings in the market based on the market's interpretation
of what could be happening, right? After all, we all want peace. So does the market. I hate that
I keep referring to the market as if it's like this,
as if it's like this omniscient being when in reality, it's just a bunch of people like you
and I speculating on what the next headline is going to be. But that's kind of where we are
right now. We're retracing that pump a little bit today. I think we have Trump speaking at some point today. Not sure when that
is, maybe after market closes like yesterday. But yeah, we'll see what we get. Polymarket,
I thought was kind of an interesting perspective because we have these wallets who are batting
100%, basically, who are kind of speculating on that we're not going to get that much more
movement in that saga by the end of the month.
But maybe we get some by April, and we'll talk about that later on this show as well.
But oil has come down.
It is currently trading at 89.5.
We're probably going to have to talk about, in Tucker's words, oil.
Man, I say that in my brain now, Tucker.
I want you to know that.
I love it. i love it but how
are we doing guys what are we seeing in the markets do we have any thoughts on our latest
headlines do we have any thoughts on oil does it matter uh or does it or doesn't it right um
what's on our mind today guys oh man that kind of dropped a little bit i still think it's uh i still think it's
probably going higher in the short term i don't i don't know why it dropped i mean obviously it
was headline driven but uh yeah i don't i don't think this is done going up unfortunately so
uh but anyways yeah i think um i don't know it's every other day it's a good
headline it's a bad headline you know even today we had a bad headline and stocks decided to go up
anyways so it's yeah i don't think there's any alpha i'm trying to figure out uh like what's
going to happen based off a single you know fundamental headline but at any rate i think uh i still think things
are a little bearish i think i think the s p here actually let me go over let me go over to that
hey hey hey what's up chef so so sub guys what's up yeah i i worry we're uh you know until this
just stops going straight down in a straight line i just don't think you know risk is crazy
attractive but it could it hasn't put a shoulder in yet it could be trying to
at least carve out something here
yeah we'll see I mean it makes sense we had a bounce here you know does look
like a possible deviation of this point but all the supplies up here
unfortunately so you gotta got a little ways to go on the s p but uh this is also giving way google is giving way man it is
i love your google fund bro dude my google fund will continue until morale improves like
it's about to it's literally going like this is mid this is a slow motion train wreck right here
out the it's literally going like this is mid this is a slow motion train wreck right here so uh
you know i've been i've been short this thing through all this garbage now it's finally just
just that's what i put in my channel i said just let go of the life preserver i'll just release it
and drift off into the abyss you know are you a big fan of titanic ducker
huge fan great yeah not a big fan correction huge fan
great yeah um but yeah i don't know i mean that's that's what I'm looking at
I think coin and google are drifting
you know I think they're drifting
but holy shit I'm so
tired of winning yeah I know we all are
we're exhausted from all the winning
jeez I don't know what to make of this
kind of high time frame you know
crazy to make it this kind of high time frame you know but crazy
my coinbase fud will continue but that's all i'm going to say
add to it or beat a dead horse
other than i mean i think it still just looks a lot like software um which has been really weak
today
what was that igv igv yeah igv yeah yeah expanded tech software
it does i love trading the things that i didn't know existed until like two months ago
so what is this like what is it just is it trying to be qqq is it just all tech
or what i'm kind of just viewing it as like tech beta tech beta you say yeah
what about old uh you guys remember uh oh my gosh trying to play downside on that in early
2023 is hilarious to look back on right right in here yeah we're like yeah it's it's gonna roll over
i i watched too many friends get carded out on this. And so as a product of that, I will never trade it ever.
I can't trade SMH on principle.
Imagine if we had just bought shares of it and then went and done nothing.
Instead of trying to play short dated options on it.
Hilarious to look back on.
That's like me with Robinhood, man.
I was scalping
short dated options on it
at the bear market bottom.
I was crushing it. I hit some awesome
plays on it.
3x, 4x,
5x, small little
trades in the bear market.
But then if I just bought shares of
Robinhood, it just pissed
off.
Would have been so much better off.
Like, I was trading options down there.
Dude, same.
Like, range low, range high.
Like, it was a nice little range.
It was big.
I knew this would break out, man.
Like, I caught that move from, seven bucks to like 12 or something like that on options yeah should have just bought a
bunch of shares and done nothing there's a lesson in that yeah never think you're gonna out trade
a parabolic launch off of a cumulative floor.
I was doing the same thing with Palantir down here, bro.
Yeah.
You got to know when to trade and when to just literally buy it and be like,
all right, this is going to pump.
I'm going to hold it until it pumps.
Eventually ETH will look like that or we'll go to zero.
I don't know.
But yeah, I won't go to zero.
Hopefully we're like right here
tommy thinks we're going to zero it's fine i mean i i think actually that like the way we unwind is going to lead to a big demand for decentralized payment systems when it's all said and done but
demand for decentralized payment systems when it's all said and done but i don't think we're there yet
well tommy what what l1 are the agents gonna trade on bro i think it'll trade on eath probably
cubic cubic uh avax you wouldn't get it
you wouldn't get it yeah probably yeah agents l1 of choice is uh it's this
apparently they've been choosing bitcoin over usd though so that's interesting but
what dot no like agents like ai agents have been like transacting using bitcoin
rather than usd interesting yeah it's very interesting actually i mean the the premise
is like the entirety of crypto was built for ai agents but we just like fumbled our way into it
you know we've just been fumbling around in their coins forever.
I think there's some truth to that, you know, because like, you know,
reading a blockchain and like, you know, all the little not like all that is
like totally built for a computer to do rather than a human.
Imagine being in crypto for like six years only to suffer,
then quit just before the agents take it to the stratosphere.
Yeah.
That's the new bold narrative.
The agents will take us higher.
That is a ticker.
Actually, it's Bitcoin dominance.
This hasn't moved, bro.
Since September.
I set alarms for this, and
like six months ago, they haven't gone off.
I mean, that thing
has to give eventually, right?
That's a bearish structure.
There's no way that's bullish.
Right? Right?
Right?
I mean, I have no...
At this point, it's ranged here long enough
that I really don't have a strong opinion about it.
I wouldn't be surprised with either outcome.
Yeah.
It's pretty simple.
The moment ease breaks out, this goes down.
It's all about ease in the end.
Always has been.
Soul-headed cycle and Bitcoin dominance did absolutely nothing. It's true.
Not sure if you guys have looked at soL heat, but it's still holding.
It's holding so bad.
I know.
This is going to break down. like I know you like charts like this they always look like this before there is like a minus 50%
rock pool I was like trying to find the chart on the call earlier this morning but it kind of
reminds me of like a Matic BTC structure that I traded like two or three years ago you can't
even find the chart on trading view.
But you can find the open interest data of your positions.
I remember when you were trading it,
I saw you in the tape,
Tommy.
I can show you exactly when,
when Tommy took his trades.
I remember it very well.
Yeah.
I am the open interest brother. i am openly interested in trading matic
to the downside i i do agree with the that premise though jack is like we've we've seen
structures like this particularly on like alt btc pairs and they almost always resolve
significantly lower yeah there's no chance this isn't going lower pretty much like
anything's possible except this chart not going lower anything is possible except this chart
what does it imply if this chart goes lower though
it imply if this chart goes lower though he's goes higher it implies it's tom lee season
is that what it implies yeah it's on chain paradigm shift you would yeah i mean it could
be that i mean you would think that if it was super risk on the soul without perform but
maybe not i still don't think like the dilution that occurred on soul throughout this range is
totally like found its way into the supply
was homie naked in the books
skinny dipping in the books skinny dipping in the books
yeah back when matic was liquid enough to trade
so many altcoins now that if you try to trade them it's just
you can't do it not even with like relatively very small notional
sizes and i'm not a whale i can't imagine trying to trade them like with seven figures or more
uh position size on some of these altcoins
the books are just so thin.
It's been barring around.
Like, just bar, bar, bar.
But it needs to bar this.
It needs to re-bar the bar, you know?
Do you get bullish if we re-bar the bar?
I mean, if we get back above this high... Yeah.
You know, we'll see we'll see so if we get back above that high
at 75 pretty sure we're going to 77 so i know that's a mean
i uh i'm writing the goal post yeah this is we break and accept the high, everybody's going to try to short 80K.
I think that would be a mistake.
No, Tommy.
I'm going to short 70, 78, 78 with a stop right here at 80.
Let me fill out a form for you, Tommy.
This is what I'm going to do.
I just don't think shorting 80k is a winning strategy.
This is what I'm going to do.
And if I have to be sacrificed, that's fine.
It reminded me of Capo from last cycle.
They won't sacrifice me.
Biggest sacrifice I've ever seen.
Capo's bullish, though.
He's been very bullish throughout this range.
I did not know that.
Definitely did not want to see that as a bull,
but broken clocks right twice a day.
I generally don't pay attention to these because like if you were to combine people like, you know,
Kapo, Jim Cramer, James Wynn, you know, all of these, Moon, Carl, and, you know, again, all of these guys.
It's negative alpha because half of them will be bullish and half of them will be bearish and next week it
will be vice versa so there's negative alpha in that information nowadays but what is mmcrypto
saying you guys the best honestly and borrow the moon mm over everybody bro he's great the faces on the youtube thumbnails just the best
so i was i was looking at pepe earlier
it's probably three day it's like it's like either like here and you're like right here right or
or you're like here
just this like
I stake my reputation we are not about to drop
on Pepe
well that was 10 pence
we already did that
you don't get back to back 70%
cascades bro
that would be back to back to back.
Oh, excuse me.
Excuse me.
I'm so sorry.
Yeah, it would be because there's this.
But it does like to do this little three.
But this one results.
You would need ETH dropping sub 1000.
ETH dropping sub 1000.
I mean, I don't think you need need e sub 1k for just this little floor
to give out though you know that's not that big a move i'm not saying we're gonna do 10 10
like that was ridiculous but just for a little you know you know one of these a little one
of those that's probably actually a big move
we are going higher man that's 50 that's not gonna happen hopefully
but it's that september 24.
yeah and we better hope so i mean that would be epic. We just did this.
I rather think it's more like in October 23.
October 23, all the way back here.
October, October, October, October.
Oh, okay, I see.
I know, I wish... What's the on-chain chart?
Do we have that data from back here?
Use the Max-C chart.
It was like this, basically?
Okay.
The Pepe USDT on Max-C is going to be the best one.
Even that doesn't give us all of it, but yeah, that's better.
You might have to go to wrapped ETH, which good luck.
Have fun with that. April, yeah, that's right.
April 23.
Yeah.
Well, that WIC is not accurate, but this is basically the chart.
This is like the Binance,
the Binance wick.
This was the Coinbase.
I think the better,
like I just view Pepe as a noisier version of Sui right now,
actually, like that trend,
I think is a cleaner visual representation.
Noisier version of Sui.
Pepe has just given way bigger squeezes than suey
but i think suey paints the picture of like
when or maybe like probably the broader all coin market
you know at least it fits better for my delu lines i mean yeah those look similar
but suey like pepe is still nice all this that's suey wick i know i know
see we came all the way back down into like this area almost i guess
how do you feel about sui jackets
i don't i don't feel anything
i feel it offered me really nice swing to the downside this year to begin my year very well.
And I've been very appreciated of it.
And I've taken my profits and it can peacefully die or go up.
I don't care.
Peacefully die.
There's something romantic about what you just said.
Yeah.
Like, there's no hate.
There's no frustration.
It's just...
Sail off and, you know, go towards
the light.
Go ahead.
Yeah.
It's beautiful.
It's the circle of life.
Well, I don't think it has...
Like, I don't think it has much lower to go.
If it goes slower, that said, I wouldn't be buying it either.
I just think of this chart sort of like avox perhaps you know in 2022
23 so i mean it's gonna reflect any markets upside when it comes but it's not gonna go up as much in my opinion it's still you know super high fdv token with really bad structure and
i don't find anything interesting about it
i don't see a fundamental reason holding it. But Jack is still launching digital Pokemon cards on chain.
I changed my mind.
That's huge.
I think the Pokemon card bubble is cooked.
You know what I was talking to a friend about the other night so he's in the video games
i don't i don't play video games but he's in the like counter-strike and i guess it's a really
popular game and he was telling me all about like the marketplace for like you like skins
yeah you get like rare skins or a knife or like something like that
and it literally just sounds like
gambling
it sounds like you're pulling
like scratch offs or like a slot machine
sort of
and I was like you know what that sounds like
it sounds like that's
NFTs or like what we thought
crypto NFTs would be.
But they actually did it because people want collectibles they can use and do stuff with.
Instead, we just got stupid pictures that don't ever do anything under the guise of community and networking.
But I was like, that's like NFTs.
That's digital property.
They actually did it.
We didn't.
We fucked it up.
So from the beginning, that's what I thought NFTs were going to be like,
that it's going to be, you know, mainly skins in the game
or, you know, stuff that you can actually use digitally
because the skins within CSGO or CS2 now or generally CS, right?
Or generally like games is it makes sense
because you're playing the game that you really enjoy you spend lots of time in that and you kind
of you know want it to look pretty you want to brag in front of your friends that you got something
rare and people love it and so you're basically betting there like the bet on the price of uh of the skin
you know slash nft and you could imagine is that it's gonna go up in price in time because either
first it's rare and people will want it and obviously because people will keep playing the
game obviously if no one played the game the skins would be essentially valued at zero.
And in this sense, you're sort of betting
on an everlasting number one FPS game
through the whole history
that will keep gradually evolving.
Because in the past with the games,
it was sometimes very rough
because you had a good game that people played.
But then people kept,
or the developers kept pushing a new game after a new game that people played. But then people kept, or the developers kept pushing
a new game after a new game, and it stopped being
in the same spirit as the old ones,
and gradually the game either died or evolved
into something else.
But with CS, it's very likely that the game will keep
being played generation after generation.
Obviously, it's going to get a new engine here and there.
But through the time, it's going to stay here.
And likely, obviously, we never know.
And so it makes sense that people want to want to buy the the skins well and obviously
there's a gambling feature there because you can buy like the the boxes and you never know
what you're gonna get right so it's truly a gambling within the cs because you can get these And yeah, that's where I thought that NFTs or the way I thought NFTs would go as well.
But I suppose nobody cares about the rock in a JPEG.
Yeah, I think, I mean, it kind of to me is like you see with pokemon cards as a you
know an analog novelty started the bubble novelty was i still think the best valued products crypto
punks are probably the most novel uh crypto nft i do think if we see a significant
amount of money move on chain that novelty is going to matter again um but i think that kind
of needs to obviously that kind of needs to be a precursor for any nft bubble because people got
rich on eath and they needed something to spend their eth on and nfts were kind of just like the very convenient
outlet pokemon cards to me man like we're it's crazy i don't know if you guys are following
that bubble at all but i mean we have clearly moved past the the phase where like all of the cards you could have owned as a kid, right?
That bubble is mostly like completed.
Their distribution at this point,
what we're seeing pump are like the L1s.
We're seeing like Nier, Phantom, and Atom pumping,
maybe even like Fuse Network at this point,
if you guys actually traded that coin,
but that was like a 200 mil market cap l1 at peak so we're like they're printing all these new cards and the basis for
why you want to buy them it's like oh my god look at the art dude look how beautiful these cards are
i'm like this is exactly like the nft bubble this is exactly like after we saw punk's pump and we're talking about how good
the art on something like moonbirds and azuki looked and i remember exactly what happened
shortly after that i think it's coming pokemon card market i really think that that bubble is
about to blow up in fairly spectacular fashion and um i keep seeing more and more videos of these people who are buying pokemon
cards in bulk and like huge bulk like truckloads worth of bulk i think those the people who are
left holding a significant amount of inventory are going to be the ones left holding the bag
in the pokemon card bubble yeah i, the only way I could imagine
Pokemon cards retaining their value
is if there is still community
that's going to stay around them
and would...
Like with the Pokemon Go, right?
That was huge.
That created a huge new wave of fans
regarding Pokemonsmons so if that
stayed around similarly as cs for example you know counter-strike then um then i suppose yes
but obviously if you're gonna make a huge inflation of pokemon cards then uh that's gonna depreciate
them right uh we we've seen that in crypto but i think
the novel like the there are cards in pokemon that i think will be worth like holding for a while and
it's like you said they're gonna be the ones that have that built-in community to it pokemon's not
going anywhere but to me like we're clearly seeing the company nintendo like speed launch all of these games i think to
capitalize on this hype at the same time i just think it's it has like every everything that
i usually see in a late stage bubble um and uh yeah not much more not much more than needs to be said, but I do like, I do think like the novel
Gen 1s,
I don't understand the market well enough to like
tell you exactly what they're called,
but like the oldest cards I think
will be catching a bit
again at some point in the future. The question is
at what floor?
Exactly. Like a big fat juicy horse burger
study
this is true also
yeah
ftm was an insane coin, honestly. I think it was Nomad that talked about this, but it continues to be
like so, it always sticks out in my head. It's like when you have these assets that pump so high
without giving pullbacks, it just means that bid support is going to be that much lower.
He was talking about this with Bitcoin. And he was using it as like when Bitcoin was in the 30
to 40k range in the summer of 2021. Not that it was going to break down, but just you'd get these
squeezes where there wasn't really any demand outside of short covering. And it actually ended up lowering the floor because there's no bid support.
You need buyers on the way up
to continue to kind of like support price.
And that's why like a slow grinding uptrend
is obviously going to resolve more cleanly
than a parabolic uptrend.
But that quote is always stuck out in my head.
And I think it's fitting when you look at a coin like FTM,
where it ran up 2,000x,
and how down is it from the all-time high right now?
Is it like...
It went up way more.
Jeez.
It went down like 2,000%.
Kidding. Kidding.
Kidding.
What about Luna?
Honestly, that one's funny because it's like,
that one had decent bid support.
It was just a complete Ponzi.
There were external dynamics that caused that one
that's the thanksgiving turkey chart
always will be
you know what's interesting is that luna always pumps in december
really yeah i just noticed
december 23 december 24 and december 25. that is interesting i'm gonna have to front on that
I'm gonna have to front on that this year.
Yeah, I wonder if there is some.
Yeah.
The one on the, yeah, next to it.
This one's December.
Yeah, so you have, you have December, December, December.
Put it in the log.
December.
The one before too, yeah.
It was a bit late, right?
Okay, that wasn't December, it was January.
Yeah.
That is just the funniest chart ever, man.
Just saying.
And the pumps are pretty close too, like in terms terms of percentage the wick is crazy to zero
the literal zero just a quick little wick to zero and then bounce yeah you didn't catch the zero wick
didn't they like close trading on luna for a few days and then it opened way higher if i remember
right yeah there was like no bid side liquidity so
people couldn't even close i remember like trading it on kucoin back then
yeah and you just couldn't you just couldn't close it.
That's short.
KuCoin was goaded.
PG at zero.
You're an ICP boy.
Fiji at zero.
God.
I kind of want a short suey here. Really? really yeah i know it's down a lot but like
what's another 99 the problem with shorting all coins is there's like what's the risk reward really
yeah
you might be right but you also might get your face ripped off
takes very little effort for some of these things to pump like 20 to 30 percent
what do you guys think about palantir here
last time i looked at it it was induking
i think this is a shoulder
let's do a little
that does look like a textbook shoulder yeah but if the war continues maybe somehow it will
catch a big bid because
they're
just Big Brother Incorporated
it's actually not Big Brother Max
and in case
anybody else on this panel thinks that they're big brother i
want i want uh peter thiel and palantir to know that i firmly disagree with that opinion
good call i don't know what i was saying i don't even know how i got here
in case of a federal investigation let the record show i don't know
any of these people i don't know how i got here
probably anything about me speaking out against surveillance
is ai generated and and not a real take from me
ditto ditto let the record show ditto. Yeah.
Yeah, if it's going to reject from anywhere,
it's going to be this node.
We'll see.
Dude, I just missed the pumps, man.
I know. dude i just missed the pumps man you gotta hit jackass jackass do you have any conviction i can borrow just short term
just a little bit oh yeah just a just a smidgen of conviction please sir
yeah i i think crypto is gonna significantly pump in the upcoming weeks thank god i need that conviction right now man i think we
are going to see for example link going to like 13 bucks 1300 1300 bucks yeah
sounds good about that fill out this form link to 1300 that's great
Fill out this form, link to 1300.
That's great.
Link to 1300.
I don't even know what the market cap would be at that price.
Is Link a trillion dollar asset?
You wouldn't get it.
Why does Link need a token?
You remember who was asking that question a lot in like 2022, 2023?
Okay, maybe you guys.
I remember Naka was like really hammering that Link didn't need a token.
I don't know why.
All right, now I'm suddenly bullish, Link.
I can't explain what changed just now, but...
His skepticism just suddenly made me bullish.
They obviously need a token.
Maybe you don't need, maybe you don't know yet why it needs a token, but you're about to find out.
Two questions that you never ask in crypto.
Why do they need a token?
Where does the yield come from?
Don't ask. Just trust. Just trust the devs are hard at work okay
yeah
palantir gold and oil are all saying the conflict is ending
world peace will usher in the gold let me tell you let me tell you luke
usher in the gold let me tell you let me tell you look bitcoin was also in a bear market at 15.5k
in 2022 it was also a bear market and let me tell you that 14k guaranteed like it was coming
guaranteed like it was coming it was certain kapo promised and so has everyone else and let me tell
you it was like this every single cycle before every single every single cycle oh and let me
tell you i've been live through those situations just borrow Jackis' conviction if you don't have any.
It's fine. Just take
after me. I don't know what's going on.
Sir, may I borrow some conviction?
He says, sure.
Then I'm suddenly convicted to the
upside. It's that simple.
And then
if he's wrong, then you
just run a smear campaign
on Twitter and come after his life,
try to dox him, you know, like normal behavior, totally normal stuff.
DM Naka for a refund. Silver doesn't look bad here.
That's interesting.
I always take my eye off that.
I was looking at gold last night
like i actually think i think the boomer that bought at 113 might be in trouble because i
think we'll pause there for a bit but like there could be a nice little it kind of is giving me
like bitcoin summer 2021 vibes where you had that that three drive into the low
after the 64k
correction last cycle.
Yeah.
You know what I'm talking about?
Might need to pull up a chart there and do a little
comparison there.
I think you can probably visualize it.
I definitely can.
It's given me that kind of vibe.
You might need to line the time frames
up a bit but use the power of visualization imagine yeah it's giving me kind of three drive
into the low vibes we'll see i don't even know what to think about silver i was kind of asking myself uh last night
if gold is just like doing that uh if it's pulling back from like a high time frame test
pump but that seems just like crazy to me think about uh from the um 70s and 80s i guess just the 70s
what is it uh so if you look at gold spot the oanda pair you're gonna need the oanda pair
i guess tvc probably works pepperstone no you need oanda or tbc probably but in the 70s it obviously gave like a really big
rally and then it cooled off before it gave like a parabolic rally i was kind of asking myself if
gold is kind of doing something like that now because of i don't know i mean we had an we might
have had an oil crisis i guess i guess many would consider that to be the case. We don't know if there's going to be, there probably will be inflationary effects at some point for that.
I want to say that was a pretty big theme in this gold pump from the 70s, but
it seems kind of difficult for me to fathom gold moving like that today.
Guys, what is batting? Batting 1 batting 1000 it's a baseball term
uh that means you've never missed like you get on base every time that means you're elite it's
a great compliment okay thanks that's a very american way of being like, you're epic. That's what that is.
Why just since August 24 is my question.
Yeah, that actually is insulting.
That's kind of a backhanded diss now that I think about it.
And whoever said that ban him permanently.
Never let him back here.
My question is,
and I still think it's possible,
but where will people flip?
Because there's lots, like, I would say,
maybe not anymore, but at a certain time,
and it's highly subjective,
but lots of people were like, about 90% of people felt that we will sweep at minimum 60k.
And we thought Listo can, but I wonder where a lot of people are going to flip or get back in if we don't and i know of lots of people
who were selling during the 2016 bull run and they could never ever come back to buy bitcoin
again because it was simply too too high and i'm not saying you know we do experience something like in 2017 here i'm just saying
because i know the feeling of like something must happen
and then it doesn't happen which is totally fine but i know that so many people have a hard time emotionally
inside of them flipping the bias and I like admit yeah I need to flip here and
oftentimes people don't and then they either end up back holding if we go down
or they end up being on the sidelines forever
end up being on the sidelines forever.
Did you consider the equal lows at $47 per Bitcoin, Jackis, or no?
I've been considering them for 10 years, ever since I heard about them.
I mean, that would be a huge oversight on your part to not consider.
The interbanking, what is it, the interbanking algo?
You never heard of EBITDA?
I've heard of EBITDA.
Ernie's before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortization. But EBITDA earnings before interest taxes depreciation and amortization
but EBITDA
they're going to pull the stream just for saying EBITDA
your pronouns are what
pronouns are EBITDA
it's terrible
pronouns are MMR
or MRR or ARR ARR to... It's terrible. Pronouns are MMR.
Or MRR.
Or ARR.
ARR. Yeah. Yeah, my pronouns are ARR.
I like when people will be like,
I just whipped up this
Claude app.
It made no mistakes.
It's now for sale
for my premium subscribers. in the first week we made
like two thousand dollars annualized you know at a growth rate of this we're making 10 million per
year study and i'm like dude you just annualized like your first two weeks of building a slop app with Claude.
That there Dunning-Kruger,
man. That there
idiot.
I am quite tired of seeing
all these people like
why is Bitcoin moving
up? What's happening?
Bitcoin never goes up. It's only supposed to
go down. What's happening?
Is there a news
tweet or something?
Something just dropped for sure. Bitcoin's
moving.
There's a headline. What's the headline? Somebody help.
Oh, God.
What's the headline? What did Trump say?
It's happening. Everybody stay calm.
Bitcoin's supposed to go. It's only supposed to go down. What's the headline? What did Trump say? Oh my God, it's happening. Everybody stay calm. Bitcoin is only supposed to go down. What's happening?
Bands may travel to Pakistan for Iran talks.
That's the headline it looks like.
Just in Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF.
Listing is imminent, says Bloomberg.
That's probably the one.
Okay, so basically nothing's happening
oh no it's probably been correlated to spx which moved higher as well well and so btc is just like this is my thing right um every single time during this range for
the past weeks when we got on the really bad news like btc moved down with spx but they didn't even make a new low. And every single time SPX just slightly moved up,
Bitcoin moved up pretty quickly.
And it's not changing.
You know what it reminds me of is that time period
in like October of 2023, I think,
where stocks were doing the limp meat pattern and making new lows and Bitcoin was like coiling up for new highs.
You know what I'm talking about?
Yeah.
I mean, you guys all have the chart memorized on every time frame, right?
Of course.
Yes.
You know what I might start doing?
Like employee checks at bb if you can't recall a fractal perfectly for memory then you're fired immediately
i think everyone on our team would be safe honestly yeah you know remember that game we
played one time like months ago where i called out a window and i was like what was the price
of this asset on this day yeah should we do that again right now i think it was and we were all within like
100 bucks or something yeah all right we're gonna do it again right now have a little bit of fun
okay no one in the comments do bitcoin you want me to do bitcoin bitcoin what if we did bank of
america in the 90s only it's homie you're the only one that would. No, I don't have that memorized.
But I know a little bit of how it traded.
Okay.
I just don't have the price memorized.
So, Tommy, Tucker, Jackis,
do you guys agree not to have a chart out for a minute here
while we play this game?
I promise I'm only going to look at both of them.
I will.
Okay.
Jackis, you agree?
What do you mean to do?
No looking at the chart for this little game, okay?
Okay.
And no looking at the comment section either.
All right.
All right.
So here's what we're going to do.
I'm going to give a window.
I'm just going to say a date.
We're going to do Bitcoin.
I'm going to say a date. We're going to do Bitcoin. I'm going to say a date.
And we're going to see who can get closest to the price of Bitcoin on that day.
No charts.
Everyone's being honest, right?
Okay.
All right.
Okay.
We are going to do...
How quickly do we answer or do we wait?
I'll just get just a reasonable amount of time.
I'll write it down.
So let me write it in the comments first.
So we're going to do Tommy.
And then we're going to do Tucker.
And then we're going to do Jackus.
So you guys will just tell me your...
Actually, you might need just tell me your...
Actually, you might need to message me. Message me in the...
Individually, because I don't want you to
hear each other's, okay? On Discord?
Message me on Discord individually,
okay?
We're going to say
February
20th, 2023.
February 20th. That. February 20th.
That was like...
Message me.
No one can hear.
February 20th, 2023.
Okay.
We're going to do the daily
open, okay?
Okay. okay christ i'm trying to remember when the etf went live it was 23 or 24
oh february 20th 2023 i already sent it to you, Max. Okay.
Me too.
Okay, hold on, hold on.
Just waiting on you, Tucker.
I know.
Tucker, come on, man.
I'm going to guess.
He's watching the phone.
That's for sure.
Look at him.
He's looking down, man.
He's like, hmm, I, I gotta think it's true.
You have 10 seconds.
Phone's right here, okay?
You have 10 seconds.
Okay.
I might be so wrong, bro.
I can't remember if CF went live.
All right.
I put it in the comments.
The price was $24,272.
Oh, I went live in 2020.
Which means that Tommy was the closest.
We were very close.
Tucker, you were fired.
I did. was the closest we're very close yeah you literally you're fired i did because i remember we weren't quite we weren't quite at svb yet but we were probably in that like little downtrend
right before it yeah i thought that was the etf yeah you guys were i knew i knew we were like um
that we've already had the pump from january right to reclaim the structure so i definitely knew we were like, that we've already had the pump from January, right?
To reclaim the structure.
So I definitely knew we are somewhere between 20 to 25K.
So I was like, all right, I'll pick the middle because I don't remember. You're like, we launched off the floor.
So we're not in the bear market lows.
That's a good way to gauge it.
I was just a year off.
Because didn't, I was trying to think of Pepe too, because didn't Pepe
rip in March 24?
Was it April? It was March, April
2024. I think you messed up the year, Tucker.
I think you were one year ahead. You were one year forward. Do we want to do it one more time,
Tucker? I need one more. You want one year forward do we want to do one more time tucker do you want to
i need one more you want one more should we do eath you or you want to stick with bitcoin i don't
want to do it fine bitcoin's fine okay i've got my years in order now i've got the bitcoin chart
way more memorized than eath okay i'm gonna say now i'm going to try to be tricky and do some volatile event where it's swung crazy.
I'm just going to pick a region.
Okay.
We're going to do the opening price on July
1st, 2024.
Ooh, that one's
kind of tricky because I know exactly
where we were when that happened.
Me too.
But I don't...
July 1st, you said July 1st?
July 1st, 2024.
Tucker, what day did you get married again
a day before that okay i love it that's how i'd be thinking about it too
where was i all right i'm gonna guess this and hope it's right
tucker there's a lot on the line for you right now that's a tough range bro that was a giant
okay so we ripped Tucker's wedding gift I sent him a shit coin
he did
did you say 2024 right I did okay
like I could tell you the range within a 4 to 5k region, but I might not see.
All right.
I'm going to guess.
Please be close.
Please be close.
All right.
Check the comments.
Price was $62,772mmy wins again tommy jack is in second tucker
you're re-fired again you're re-hired then re-fired again i remember because we dumped
we dumped uh i think either like the day before or the day of your wedding
tucker you do have an excuse on this one you were a little bit busy either the day before or the day of your wedding.
Tucker, you do have an excuse on this one.
You were a little bit busy, obviously.
I was preoccupied, yeah.
You were a little busy, yeah.
I knew it was in the 60s somewhere, so I just guessed the middle.
Yeah.
Not bad, guys.
Not bad.
Tommy's autism is really showing right now
yeah
just waiting for Tommy to whip out specifics
like 62, 757
and 37 cents was the open
on that day
you know someone out there can totally do that too
probably
yeah
definitely some like 14 year old Asian kid
just like every tick has been memorized
look at him
my mass specialist
look at his face
anything special about him
we gotta remake that meme
Jackass of like instead of like
he's my quant
he's my fractal chud we have to remake that meme jackass of like instead of like he's my quant like he's my fractal chud
yeah we have to remake that that's for you because you're the meat you're the meme specialist but
that's funny
and i didn't get first in that fractal chud competition i i got second yeah wabi is good at recalling price like that the way wabi's mind categorizes like price and
dates yeah he remembers very strange specifics too because he'll be like the price was doing this but then do you remember
at that time this guy tweeted this and then this d5 ponzi was blowing up and then blah blah like
it's like a whole story it's not just price yeah he remembers what was going on around that day as
well i can definitely do that with 2021 and 2022 i for example remember what i was doing when ronaldo
scored his bicycle kick against juventus that was 2018 yeah that was 2018.
okay tommy what was happening december of 2021.
we were pumping that was like my wait no december 2021 no we were dumping
oh god december 2021 we had uh we had the huge wake down on on the fourth to the fourth month
and i was gonna say i think you you remember i remember you telling me about that one like you
you missed it by like a day or something like that i sat in a short for like two weeks just to miss the move that I knew was coming.
And then we rallied until Christmas.
Oh, man.
And a few days after that, we started dumping.
We were in the 40s. Wow.
Yeah.
That was an epic dump, though.
I remember that one really well.
Because I was actually in Florida,
and I woke up at like 3 in the morning,
and I just had this gut feeling that it was just over and i was fried and i checked my phone and i was just remember like
sitting there being like i'm never gonna financially recover from this and then i was
like i guess i should just close all my positions and just go back to bed what else can a man do
i was so pissed that i missed that short i I fumbled so much P&L that day.
But I know that we pumped into Christmas because I tried to re-enter a little bit too early.
And I spent Christmas very underwater on the shorts.
I was not having a good time at all.
Just sitting there with your family.
Everyone's having fun, laughing, talking.
You're just staring at the wall wall that is our little investor we've all been there man we've all lived that
same reality at one point we have all lived where you've been like at thanksgiving and you're just like getting nuked when you don't like the numbers on your screen
just close them and come back tomorrow and check if they are any better
my father-in-law actually told me a really interesting uh and profound thing to do he
so he was talking about like they they're they have a you know stocks or whatever
they're big into stocks and he was just like they're just numbers on a screen and i was like
what he's like it's just i just i log in and i see my account it's just a number on a screen
and i was like but it's so much more than that he's like no it's just a number on a screen
i was like holy shit you figured it out like
you have a balanced life this is unbelievable like what do you mean you don't obsess over
price every two seconds like that's crazy they've only ever known asset appreciation
yeah you have to worry about it it's crazy because like realistically speaking, without a joke, right?
Like, that's technically correct.
The problem is that everyone believes those numbers.
And suddenly they become real.
Just a number on a screen.
Yeah.
It's a video game.
That number was once a lot higher for me, personally.
I will say.
That number on a screen. Oh a screen dude where did Big Sal go
remember we had Big Sal
on the show
he was ripping a sig inside
Big Sal was on YouTube with us
here on the panel
we went down ever since
yeah
maybe if he comes back that would bottom
the market oh yeah what happened to Shine as well
bottom? no it would top it
Shine retired
he's living in the Bahamas now
yeah
Big Sal literally
topped the market
you don't want him right now
unless you're short of course
Big Sal man You don't want him right now, unless you're short, of course.
Big Sal, man.
You guys just don't see it.
I mean, dude, I could tell you that we topped in December, November, and then October.
That's pretty interesting.
There's signal in that, right?
I mean, the Q4 tops is a real thing.
It's one month.
It's almost one month later each time.
December, November.
I was talking to our Discord this morning about the duration of the crypto cycles.
How each cycle from bear market bottom to top has been 1,065 days.
And then each bear market's been
exactly a year from high
to low for Bitcoin. ETH's been a little bit
different.
That can't last forever, right?
There's just no way
we can stay on these cycles
forever.
No, I mean, you can't...
If Bitcoin's this institutionalized,
you can't have it going down
70 every four years it just can't be a thing like they might make it i don't know i think
the institutionalization actually makes it more reflexive to the downside at least right now
yeah i'm just saying like if it keeps doing that those people are going to leave like they do not
have a stomach for that kind of drawdown like they're used to number just going up like i i would personally like to have them out of the market but
no i don't know about that man when you think about it meta went down minus 75
netflix went down minus 75 right and n in 2022, it also went down like minus
70%. So...
I mean, I guess if they're
holding individuals, maybe they have
a stomach for it, but I'm talking about like
the boomers that are holding the S&P.
Of course, but...
Your generation
just needs to work harder. That's what
you don't understand.
I didn't hear this one enough times
today your generation's just so lazy you don't work hard if you just get a w2 job and you just
dca into a roth for like 35 years during the greatest technological boom that we've ever seen
multiple of them including the advent of the internet, streaming, software,
hardware advances. You too can be a multi-deca millionaire by 60 just like me. Your generation
needs to work harder. This was all me. It was all me. It was my hard work, my knowledge of the
market. It was all me.
I wasn't born at the perfect time.
What do you mean you can't find a job?
Just work on your grip strength, brother.
It's a handshake issue.
What do you mean you can't afford to buy a house?
What? What are you talking about?
I was married with two kids and a house in a beautiful suburban neighborhood when I was 25.
What are you talking about?
Yeah, mortgage rates were higher when I got my house.
You need to work harder.
You just don't get it, young whippersnapper.
Yesterday, I've seen in some news that young generation actually works really hard.
Like they've actually started punching their own face to make their chin look more muscular.
Oh yeah, bone smashing.
Yeah, absolutely.
It's called chin maxing or something like that you're not mewing actively i i was like when i
saw that we saw that with my girlfriend we were like we looked at each other and we're like
this world is so fucked what is going on yeah
that's probably a good spot to wrap the show up
that's why you'll never make it because you don't work hard enough
Right there the boomer would have kept streaming
You know
Streaming
The boomer mind
The boomer mentality
The boomer mentality just keeps streaming man
There's no end to the show
You stay out here until you make it. All right. Hopefully we enjoyed the stream today.
Talked about a very wide variety of topics today, but always entertaining. And of course,
I think full of alpha as well. If you did enjoy Market Check,
reminder that we host this show live throughout the week
on the following days
when the New York Stock Exchange is open,
Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
So yes, we will be back tomorrow.
And of course, Friday to help you wrap up your week,
hopefully with a little bit more movement on the charts.
But these days, I can't promise anything.
But I can promise
you that we're going to cook some alpha and probably some humor as well. A reminder that
we typically start the show around 1130 AM Eastern standard time. So see you guys tomorrow.
But of course, before you wrap up your day, he is recovering from a mouth surgery right now,
but when he does recover, we'll be back with Market Talk.
He got double jaw surgery, man.
Double jaw surgery.
So he can avenge the ASU frat leader.
Wabi is looks maxing at the moment.
But when he returns, make sure to tune in for Market Talk hosted by him and, of course course through our Because Bitcoin account on X.
That is a spaces rather than on YouTube hosted through the X platform, but always lots of
alpha and entertainment over there.
So if you're looking for a great way to wrap up your day, maybe you spent some of it on
market check or maybe you're looking for something better than market check.
Who knows?
Market Talk is always very entertaining when there's uncertainty, especially when there's uncertainty in the
market, like right now, and lots of diverse opinions. But make sure to check that out,
guys. Their typical start time is around 3.30 to 3.45 EST. Thanks again for tuning in, though.
Like I said, we'll be back tomorrow for another episode of Market Check. Until then, though, like I said, we'll be back tomorrow for another episode of Market Check. Until then,
thank you again as always, guys. And of course, stay safe.
