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60 Days. Same Price. Think About That. | Market Check
Recorded: April 6, 2026 Duration: 1:15:34Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good morning or afternoon, depending on where you're tuning in from.
And welcome to today's episode of Market Check, our first episode of the week, guys,
brought to you by Because Bitcoin.
There is no second best live YouTube stream to talk about markets.
Welcome back, everybody.
I hope we had a great weekend spending time with friends, family, maybe even celebrating
the holidays.
Yeah, Welcome back. We will be hopefully your liaison for this upcoming week of markets.
And I guess we're pretty early into our April monthly candle, but I'm Snorlax. You guys also
know me as Tommy. I'm joined by Prometheus, Big Louie, and of course, Max. Going to have a great
show for you guys today. You should know the drill at this point. You should know by now what I'm about to ask you. Um, let's get the like
button up today. I won't spend too much time making bad jokes about how I, how I hope you
guys hit the like button so we don't have to see soybeans. Let's just run the like button up. Let's
get straight to the point. Uh, have a great show for you all today. Like, uh, like I already said,
and, uh, really ring in, uh in what I think is going to be a very
important monthly candle. So yeah, hit that like button for us. We got a lot to talk about today.
As far as the market goes, we are opening up green. I think this is a pretty normal thing
for a Monday, at least recently, right? We are green to open the week. Last week might've been
an exception, I think, because we opened red and then Tuesday was our taco. So I guess we'll find out how is this week going to kind of trade off
that same cadence or do we maybe break the line a little bit? Is bottom in across the board right
now that we're seeing bond volatility get suppressed? I mean, the VIX is up like 2%,
but it's still kind of in like, will it pump? Will it not pump? Sort of territory from
here. Obviously, Middle Eastern fears about the war. Oil, I will say, continues to look very,
very strong. But, you know, I don't really think that the Middle East is necessarily why the market
has shown the weakness that it has. So, you know, I guess it's kind of like this push-pull, right?
So, you know, I guess I guess it's kind of like this push pull, right?
Is the market going to continue to kind of like fixate on what I kind of view as like a carrot on a stick?
And you guys can let me know if you agree or disagree with that.
I think the real fire is in private credit and underlying positioning.
But I think the fact that I have to keep saying that I think that's why we're selling off is a sign that the administration's
attempt to make us focus on the Middle East and the war is probably working, right? Because we
can't really assess necessarily what damage economically could be caused by elevated oil,
at least not on lower timeframes. So I think there's still a lot to be discovered about this market
i'm hoping that q2 will be illuminating in many ways but uh how are we doing guys uh what are
we seeing in the markets did we do anything fun um over easter weekend hopefully spending time
with loved ones um or doing something else to maybe take our minds off the market. How are we doing, guys? I know Louie had fun.
I had some relaxation time last week. It was nice.
It was well-needed.
Unplugged.
Last minute.
Fairly discounted free trip.
It was like must happen.
Came back.
Bitcoin's still
the same price that I left.
I love that.
I didn't miss much,
but I got to recharge,
got to refuel.
Drink some rum.
Some Cardibian rum,
you know?
A little bit of this,
a little bit of that.
Nice.
It's nice.
Sounds lovely.
Yeah.
I had a
solid weekend.
Kind of unplugged, kind of not.
I don't know. I think I'm sick in the head, man.
I can't stop. It's just obsessive. It's disruptive. It's compulsive. I don't know. Usually constructive, so another if, but I don't know. I just want to win. That's all. I just really want to win.
want to win that's all i just really want to win
easter was great though went to church twice good friday and then on sunday
pastor cooked the greatest comeback of all time the man died and then he rose they will study
for thousands of years they have will study for thousands of years.
They have been studying for thousands of years. I mean, people like to talk about the Patriots coming back against the Falcons, right?
Greatest comeback in all of pro sports.
Bro.
This man died.
This man died and he came back
greatest comeback in the history
of the world
talk about winning you know what I mean
talk about winning
but it was a solid
weekend
it was a solid weekend
hell yeah
hell yeah I had one of those weekends where it was i said this on the morning call but
it's like you're kind of hoping for it to be a nonchalant weekend where you just do nothing and
it was the exact opposite of course it tends to happen but uh yeah spent it with a lot of
friends and and family so pretty happy about it didn't really think about the market that much uh i guess with the exception
of maybe like saturday morning when i woke up and tweeted a bunch i think it's one of those markets
that's lulling everybody to sleep slowly but surely um slowly but surely i left on March 10th and we are now trading at exactly the same prices on the day I left over almost a month ago now at this point. So have you been having fun trading the range? That's, you know, that's the question.
question um it is just it feels arduous at this point you know it's like oh we open up you know
green we kind of mean reverted oh we open up bread uh we kind of mean revert it you know a little bit
of you know lackluster price action you know volatility is obviously elevated but it does not
feel like it to me i don't know about you guys like it does not feel like volatility is really elevated um
i don't know it just feels like the market seems just kind of like on the fence seems like a fence
sitter i'm seeing some things line up though that could create a lot of volatility but they haven't
moved yet you know it's kind of like i see cheetos in the door everywhere, but it's like, okay, what's going to actually force the door to break the Cheeto?
Hopefully it's a flaming hot lock.
Hopefully it is a flaming hot.
I will say if we,
if Bitcoin can get,
you know,
except,
I think this is a really key pivot where we're currently
at right now um you know the the 70k mark uh it's hard to separate bitcoin from equities here
because i mean if you look at equities i think equities are painting a much different picture
than than crypto um you know you do have to kind of understand that crypto will obviously follow
equities as equities are, you know, the driver of the markets. But I think, you know, if Bitcoin
can accept above, like I said, 70k here, we can start to see maybe some form of relief in altcoins.
I know you mentioned, Tommy, in the morning call, at least that altcoins do look like there's some
significant compression forming. you know and i think
that could be i think that could be some fun you know even if you know you and i are not necessarily
in the long trade right now but i mean even if we start to see the acceptance i know i know we'll
both probably be looking to catch some some longs across the board so see what we get here
across the board so see what we get here
altcoins are definitely loading some major volatility i think the question is is it going
to be low like are these euthanasia coasters that we're seeing its support or are these
these kind of like curling up into potentially new uptrends um
kind of like curling up into potentially new uptrends um
i honestly feel like pepe is a great visualization of that uh kind of like dichotomy at the moment
pepe looks interesting um
i've got a crazy bearish fractal on it and I've got a crazy bullish fractal on it.
Obviously, it depends what
ETH does, what Bitcoin does,
which really
come back to what stocks do and what
the VIX does.
It's all connected.
People are like, what does the war
you know have to do with uh with pepe what does you know what does all this uh political
have to do with uh with pepe and it's like well it's actually all connected you know like
it really is so connected but i don't know i mean pepe is looking like the the bouncy ball you know
like euthanasia roller coaster pattern down here and typically when that happens you either get a
trap door or like we start flying to the top side you're gonna get some volatility after a pattern like that.
Max, do you think Pepe can explode like it did in 2023, 2024?
I mean, it depends on a lot of things.
I think it will do really well again.
Will it fly from 250 mil to 13 mil in a year?
That was a pretty crazy move um but i think it's going to give some absolutely
crazy gains uh again but i don't i don't know if it's going to rip uh i don't even know what it
was before like a 20x or 30x or something from low to high whatever it was what percentage is that louie 2600 2700 2600 so i got
25x roughly i don't know if it'll rip a 25x again i think it's possible like if we look at what doge
did you know doge ripped 100x in its what third cycle it just really depends what beta looks like moving forward
and it really comes back to like
how big ETH gets like if ETH goes to
20k or something like that
then yeah Pepe is going to fly
because it's on ETH
and you know ETH
LP is going to get really
really thick and it's going to
counterbalance with an increase in the valuation
of Pepe and it's going to get wild right but if ETH stays in Goblin Town forever then no it's going to counterbalance with an increase in the valuation of Pepe and it's going to get wild, right?
But if ETH stays in Goblin Town forever, then no, it's not going to do shit.
So, yeah, I think it can do really, really well,
but, you know, 25X is a lot, right?
So we'll see.
I saw something on the timeline somebody pointed this out but they pointed out
Hyperliquid down at like 10 bucks
in April
April of last year at the lows
you know and
if you looked at Hyperliquid kind of
after it lost that structural low
I mean it looked terrible, right?
It looked really, really, really bad.
And then obviously went on to do what it did, but, you know,
not very many people were buyers of hyperliquid at those lows.
So, yeah, well, you know,
a lot of alts potentially could look like that,
but that has to come from, I mean, you need like a serious kind of rejuvenation and
rebirth and you know the belief in crypto um for that are you saying we need a gigantic rebirth
oh a little play on words now what are you suggesting no. I just said two words. I didn't mean anything by it. No, no, no, no. I just, I'm just looking here, you know, and I had a phenomenon.
And I'm saying like there is potential to have a lot of potential in these charts.
But there does need to be that like rebirth and rejuvenation for for crypto um
it needs to happen in a big way for a lot of results to recover in my opinion
yeah it needs to be the right all coins you know um yeah hyperliquid did it here
um yeah hyper liquid did it here it also did it here in january kind of the same setup
this actually is really good guys uh
i don't want to be long hype again
this is this is looking really clean hype tends to trade clean as well, right? Other than your distribution nonsense.
But I mean...
High time frame it is pretty clean.
Yeah, if it could successfully flip like this level.
I don't, you know, and hold it.
Like thinking like longer term,
which no one can really do in this space anymore.
Um, which I don't blame them, right?
Cause it's like, this market is not rewarded high, like higher timeframe
conviction in any way in the last two years.
But you know, if hyper liquid can hold this key key supply resistance flip or SR flip level.
I really don't see how this is not your, just your base,
like a year and a half was December 24.
So like a year and a half base before this thing really starts engaging in
price discovery. Um,
so I don't want to get long hyper liquid now that i'm looking at this chart
we got this pullback you know watch for this though right the oh we're bouncing off support
nope oh now it's going lower and then you go right so be watching for that but
this is a nice looking chart this is a really nice looking chart and i could imagine this
just being like a small little blip like you know like the altcoin charts where it's like
you're zoomed in for so long and then like you look back a year later and like this kind of year
long with just like a little blip in the bottom left corner when you're trading up here you know
i was thinking about that the other day that's kind of what this feels like to me in a way um and i feel like this this
is one of the strongest use cases for a crypto in my opinion right now so this looks really strong
this looks really strong to me
to me
i think what's funny to me about hype is a lot of the price appreciation is because
people are using it to trade not crypto hey we'll take it yeah
use it for something but i also feel like i mean that cuts two ways. Obviously, if crypto does perk up, hype's going to have a little bit extra juice to it as well.
Not just from like crypto market correlation going higher,
but because more people are going to be trading crypto and doing a lot of volume on the exchange.
Yeah.
Like if you think about like a lot of the guys that came over to trade commodities on the weekends, crypto starts ramping up a bit and be like, oh,
wow, I can just do it all right here. I'm already on, you know,
I already got money on the exchange. Let's go, let's do it. You know,
get involved. You know, that's a good way to look at it. I agree.
msdr tops first or bottoms first there's a question
i feel like it should probably bottom first personally but i think it does too
i think it's probably going to be one of those things in next bull market where people are
going to look at it and they're going to be like you know oh look at what you know micro strategy
did last cycle right we're going to buy it kind of as similar to what they did to altcoins this
cycle where they're going to be like i'm going to gonna i'm gonna get the beta right i'm gonna get the beta and the beta is gonna do and i mean i was
in that same camp this cycle right i was like i'm gonna buy altcoins xyz going into the bull market
and you know we're just gonna completely outperform um the benchmark and i don't think that microstrategy is going to do that in the next you know bull
market or bull market period because everybody now has access to buy bitcoin almost everywhere
right where before microstrategy was like the only trad fi equity play to get bitcoin exposure now that's not that's not the case it's quite the
opposite um and i just i just don't i think there's going to be better things out there
than micro strategy personally that are going to do very very well
the hard thing about mstr is still like why would you buy the common stock over just buying Bitcoin?
Yeah.
Because it's going to be diluted.
They are going to keep buying Bitcoin.
I like MetaPlanet.
This is a more under-the-radar Bitcoin treasury
without all the publicity and FUD that comes along with MicroStrategy
and Michael Saylor.
I think I saw this morning that they own 3.65% of the supply now.
Yeah.
For me, this is highly dependent on Bitcoin, of course.
But I love charts like this.
That big run-ups, big sell-offs, long-term sell-offs, and then begin to kind of round out and base. And if you're able to
catch the lower echelon of your rounding bottom base, I think any buys in this white zone,
looking back a year from now, that is great value. But this is one that would probably trade like an altcoin, right? And probably
way act as way better beta than something like a micro strategy. So that's why I've actually
been accumulating spot on this one. I'm trading micro strategy, lower timeframes, like just
some like couple months outdated call options. I still think it's due for a bounce here.
And so is crypto uh but
you know i'm giving that a couple more weeks before i have to change that bias um but this
is one where i think under the radar um doesn't have all the fud the hoopla um and you know it
has some sizable returns like i said like an alt right? Where if this thing gets going and Bitcoin starts another leg here, you know, you're looking at some, some juicy style returns here,
similar to what you would get on an altcoin, um, without the unknowns of
altcoins, you know, it's, um, so this is one I like, uh, that I've been accumulating in his zone.
So let's see how it works.
But yeah, they're a pretty big buyer of Bitcoin.
What was that?
A treasury company of the guy who like bought the top and sold, I think like 5% of their
holdings at like 70 K last week.
Uh, David Bailey's.
Don't remember the name.
Yeah. Mm-hmm. last week david bailey's come don't remember the name yeah yeah yeah do they own any bitcoin anymore yeah they only sold five percent of their bitcoin
apparently i will say this looks like one that you can get like if i bet if i turn volume on
there's like nothing here yeah if you this is one where if you can catch it at the right time
you get those break of dormancy bounces like this is like little to
no volume like you can see it in the price action it's just like doing this no volume no life but
you know this is one that you get that break of dormancy bounce and you can just get a meat stick
I don't know if it comes all the way, but I mean, this gap.
don't know if it comes all the way but i mean
Did that split?
I don't see.
I have...
How do I turn on the...
Such a funny chart.
What in the world is that?
It's like something would be shilling me.
How do I turn the to show the splits
again i i thought i had it on um is it labels no um let me see here
i think i have it on it should be under uh so if you right click and go to settings and then events
yeah you got splits on no split just got wrecked
what in the world that is that's what is pom's company oh
what is pom's company oh pom's pom's cart or chart looks terrible too public
yes i'm pretty sure he launched that at the top bro he did not even hating but it's like i'm
pretty sure it was like in that top distribution of bitcoin imagine getting paid millions to
just top blast see that's why I'm not even mad.
I'm like, I'm jealous.
Like these guys set their lives up in a way where they can just,
I mean, like irresponsibly long risk assets and then get paid for it,
regardless of performance.
Like, dude, the fact that Tom Lee got like a $5 million bonus
for just acquiring a certain percentage of ETH and being
down billions on paper is an insane life setup that I couldn't even dream of constructing,
you know?
And I don't even know if in good conscience I could construct that.
I think I'd feel bad.
I'd be like, I just didn't earn this, you know, like this feels wrong to me.
But, you know, he just shoved ETH and got paid $5 million to acquire.
I think it was $15.
Was it $15?
Excuse me.
I could have been wrong.
I didn't mean to downplay his life setup because he really set up.
Imagine if I just approached you and I was like, hey, listen,
Louis or Tommy or Prometheus, listen, I'm going to give you like like 20 billion dollars.
OK, now all you have to do is just irresponsibly shove it into a shit coin.
OK, and then you might be like, OK, well, like what about the performance?
And then I'd be like, no, no, no, no, don't even worry about that.
don't worry about it just take this 20 billion and just shove it into a shit coin and if you
Don't worry about it. Take this 20 billion and just shove it into a shit coin.
buy this much of the shit coin regardless of your average entry i'm gonna give you 15 million bucks
you would be like holy shit let's go i'm gonna top last this thing it's it's a crazy life setup
you know like i can't even hate like he's doing so much better than me it's it's inconceivable
like I can't even hate like he's doing so much better than me it's it's inconceivable like I
can't sit here for my chair the chair of responsibility the chair of I must perform
in order to get paid in any regard and judge a man who does not have to perform and can get paid
a lot more money than me I can't hate it's just wild man like people agree to that and are cool with it you know there's a lot of money
out there you know and it's a it's a lot about setting up your life you know like they did it
you know pomp did it like he gets paid to be down billions you know michael saylor gets paid to be
down billions tom lee gets paid to be down billions kathy wood gets paid to be down billions. Tom Lee gets paid to be down billions. Kathy Wood gets paid to be down billions.
I would like to get paid to be down billions as well. I mean, good for these people.
You know, good for them. They set it up in a way.
Not even hating. Maybe joking around a little bit, but it's pretty crazy when you think about it.
Just like the KOLs and the pump funds of this cycle.
Oh, but see, I'm talking about a different scale now, man.
I'm talking about a different scale.
Those guys, you know, they're getting paid, you know,
five grand, 10 grand, 20 grand to be down bad.
Some of these
TradFi people, they're getting paid
8, 9, 10 figures
to be down so bad.
It's wild.
I would own so many shit coins if that was the deal.
If you gave me billions to buy shit coins,
there'd be swimming in poop coin.
I'd have all the supply, all the pump fund supply.
Funny thing is people think we did anyway, so we might as well.
All right, I have a new idea.
I'm starting a treasury company.
I'm going to raise billions of dollars.
Okay. You will all give me your money.
I will shove it into whatever shit coin I want whenever I want.
And then if it's down,
it doesn't matter because I'm going to take a 1% to 2% fee
just for clicking the buy button.
That's it.
Who's in?
Will you guys give me billions to shove in the shit coins
just like some of these guys out there?
And just let me top blast for millions of my own compensation
if we're down we just refinance the debt yeah just refinance the debt how many how many houses do you
have i have seven houses.
All right, that's it.
I don't know.
That's all I had to say.
That's all I had to offer today. I don't.
It's a great show, guys.
What's the like button look like?
You don't want to know, Louie.
You don't want to know. Just. No, I'm not. You don't want to know, Louie. You don't want to know.
No, I'm not.
You don't want to know.
I'm not playing today.
16 likes.
You're kidding me.
You're kidding me.
You're kidding me.
No, refresh your screen, Louie.
Refresh it.
I just opened it up. Try again. That can't be right. It's already going upie. Refresh it. I just opened it up.
Try again.
That can't be right.
It started going up the second I opened it.
That can't be right.
Try again.
Okay, let me get this straight.
There's 19 likes on the stream.
Yep.
All right, guys, I got a question for you.
All you.
In the most disrespectful way possible, what the fuck?
19 likes?
And I mean that with the utmost disrespect towards each and every one of you.
19 likes?
Guys.
Can we at least get, like, 20?
You know?
And one is from my wife's boyfriend.
Yeah, thank you, MicroSailor.
All you got to do is just click a button.
That's it.
Tommy, guess how many likes there are on the stream?
Oh, God.
Is it like 20?
It was under 20. It was 16
when you were just gone.
And then I said to them,
listen, guys, in the most disrespectful way
possible to each and every one of you,
what the fuck?
That is so insultingly low.
I can't believe it.
No soybeans. No. No soybeans. They don't believe it. No soybeans.
No. No soybeans.
They don't deserve it.
Give them something worse.
Give them like
huge features.
You have to listen to Prometheus beatbox.
That's your punishment.
Just giving them nothing. Yeah yeah we need big sal
get nothing
big sal was here last week
was he oh i missed him
he was here for a show at the very end
he popped in
he made fun of being comedious and then he left
oh sal
that is insane And he laughed. Oh, Sal.
That is insane.
How are we doing?
We're at 30.
Okay, let's get some charts back up. i mean it's terrible but like i don't know i mean i guess it's something you know it's passable at the moment
yeah i mean it's like you graduated but you got like you know your gpa was like a one three
so like you somehow got on the podium. Let's not get too excited.
You've got no jobs lined up.
You're kind of an idiot.
But, you know,
you got the same diplomas
the rest of the class, somehow, someway.
It's like the group project.
Yeah, you're right. you know what it is it's uh the the viewership is down so bad you know that that's what it is we got more on twitter for sure
um but yeah you're right 30 is 40 of the viewers bro that's badass yeah i mean you're right
you're 100 right crypto is just like a ghost town.
Yeah.
When you
slide it a bit, you get
the percentages working. It makes a little bit more
sense.
I feel like
copper here.
I'm not sure what to think about it to be honest with you Louie it's kind of a tough one because it's like high time frame I feel like we're getting close to like a multi-decade breakout
right yeah but there's definitely the risk that it could dump more with the market
yeah and i mean copper is directly related to manufacturing and industrialization um
which i mean ai will most likely accelerate in a big way um but yeah i mean it's it will sell off with risk
as it's shown i really need to be careful of that
yeah i was patiently waiting for this pullback i didn't get to buy it
it feels like a lot of people were piled in here you know um so i was a little skeptical
but even this is like you get one more of these first you know yeah i think you could see like 31
or not 31 i'm looking at cper i was about to say
different copper charge yeah yeah Let me pull up the...
I will say I'm moderately enjoying the price action today.
Yeah, it's nice.
Yeah, it's kind of nice.
There's some individuals moving a little bit, like Tesla.
I'm talking more crypto, more than stocks, but yes.
Tesla's already back at the lows.
Is it?
Yeah.
Tesla is?
Yeah.
I mean, I just think Tesla's under a vampire attack right now from SpaceX.
Like, they're not going to...
There's really not a good reason to buy Tesla right now.
Because the valuation is completely out of whack
so there's nothing to anchor it to reality
it just goes
crazy because of Elon and
Dev is launching a new shitcoin
it's basically when Trump launched
Melania coin, look what happened to Trump coin
that's basically what's happening
there's no reason to hold Tesla right now
wait until
Melania goes to zero and
then if you still want to buy trump coin get back in you're being vampire attack
it's really pulling an eth man
tesla yeah
yeah it's definitely weak um i think for me it's like a question of how quickly does it pull back
now that we filled this gap uh the gap up that it had from like september i kind of think that
we're gonna see selling be a little bit more aggressive but tesla is one of those assets that like trends really really hard when it trends i would like it
here it's a really interesting chart like high time frame there's still the narrative though
that i've been talking about and if oil remains elevated for a while, you know,
like I can't see how EVs don't become more popular and that narrative takes, you know, a run.
It was really, it was like, so just chopping around down here, man. But it's basing.
You can see
on these weekly wicks, it's been trying
to break.
Look what
these three weekly candles.
It's still
like fire.
It seems like someone's accumulating.
I say if it can't, like if it's not going to break down within the next couple weeks, I feel like this is going to go up.
Here.
Yeah, I like it above like 16.
Like if it could stay above 16.
Neo looks really good too.
This is when we're playing in the Discord.
That's clean.
Fresh weekly highs last week.
Yeah, this looks like the best set of all of them.
Well, I mean, Rivian looks decent.
It's funny.
I was actually watching a show with my wife like a week ago,
and guess who produced it?
Speaking of Chinese stocks,
Billy Billy.
Oh, really? Yeah, kind of funny.
I didn't know they made movies.
and her show interesting
Now it was just like a banana. Her show. Interesting.
why is the mood so low boys let's lighten up i think we're just chilling i don't think there's
like you know i think the mood is just kind of like a chill mood today yeah it's monday no we're not down or up we're just
that's kind of in this market i feel like you know like you said for me it's like swallowing
everyone to sleep but on the on the plus side that usually means we got some volatility coming
relatively soon i for sure feel that i mean we've been seeing it in equities to the downside right
i for sure feel that i mean we've been seeing it in equities to the downside right
but i think we have some major volatility coming yeah i do
that's do i and i don't know maybe i'm crazy here but i kind of think that bears need to break
crypto down here or it's not or they're going to get their faces ripped off um i agree
Or they're going to get their faces ripped off.
I agree.
Like they kind of had the chance.
Break this down.
Yeah, like right there.
Yeah.
They had the chance and they...
Let me see if I still have the drawings up from this morning
and I can show you guys what I'm talking about.
This isn't like profound or anything it's just like this is kind of how i
view it i'll it's been a while since i've said this i'll tommy the chart quickly we're back
all right so here's how i'm viewing it guys like i was just talking about this with our discord
this morning again there's nothing like profound about this with our Discord this morning.
Again, there's nothing, like, profound about this,
but I just think it's a really simple way to look at it.
Sometimes simple is better.
Okay.
You got this kind of walked-up pattern here, right?
This thing.
They're, like, walking it higher.
And then they break it down.
That's the red area.
They hung out there for what?
Like a week?
And then they dump it.
Blue box.
Same thing.
They're walking it higher here.
They break it down.
Red shaded area.
They hang out there for about a week.
And then blue.
And they nuke it. You don't get to hang out there from a breakdown forever. Eventually you have to break down. When I look
at where we're at right now, I say they've walked this bad boy higher. They've broken it down.
down. They need to send it lower here. If they do not send it down from here, I think they're
going to squeeze it into here, reclaim this trend line, and I will see you at 80 to 85.
And I think probably somewhere up in this region, somewhere between here
and here
is where I would expect the squeeze to go.
We're still technically in a breakdown,
but they need to break it down.
If they don't break it down, then it's a false breakdown,
and we're going to get a major move to the opposing side.
So we'll see what happens. but i just wanted to show you guys
that quickly um that's kind of how i view it is like it just needs to like bears have something
to prove here they have a chance if they don't capitalize we go the other way really simple
and that doesn't mean we can't nuke from higher or something like that.
It just means they're going to get their faces ripped off first.
I think the sell is close.
Sell will come.
I think the sell is close.
I really do.
I'm basing that off the IGV chart software.
I'll keep saying, I think the market's moved lower because positioning and kind of like this
underlying squeeze on liquidity, which is why you've seen these smaller cap risk assets sell
off much more aggressively rather than the war. And software is a huge point of pain for a
lot of these private credit and private equity companies because a lot of the software loans
that they made are basically marked to zero. So you are a private equity company and you have a
ton of exposure to software. Well, you've kind of been getting wrecked.
So I think IGV, for example, is a good indication that we could be about to see a much larger
move down in equities.
But if software bounces here, I think you can say the same thing the other way, right?
We're loading a really big squeeze higher, big squeeze higher which i guess you know it fits the uh the whole altcoin setups that we're seeing
and that we pointed out earlier on the show
max what there's a question um first of all love to uh i can't see myself here this is hard to it's hard to answer
um here let me let me do this real quick
oh swap you out wow cover you up louis bang all right what's the update on the vfp trading bot i got
impatient started cooking up my own bot dude that's amazing first of all uh
we are gonna have somewhere for you to deploy your own bot if you would like to maybe send me a DM on X
and I'll get you some early access
to it if you'd like
yeah the
Volume Fusion Pro
live right now on our new product
that should be launching here very very
soon we're in beta
right now we've got
people testing it live i'm running my own tests on it it's working great we're about to drop a
product that is going to go mainstream very very quickly and if you are early to it you're going
to make a lot of money on it um but yeah vfp is going to be very, very, very publicly available here this month.
So, stand by.
But yeah, keep making your own bots.
And if you want early access to beta testing, shoot me a DM on X.
We'll get you some access.
Oh yeah.
I could see the future on bro forehead.
I don't know what that means, but I feel like that's a good thing.
Maybe.
Look into it.
I agree with this take.
I think oil's going higher.
Yeah, that's a decent recovery.
This is something I missed when I was away.
I was not expecting that last leg up from 100 to 110.
I think that wick at 120 is contextually significant for the market.
Maybe not in like an immediate reaction sort of way if we were to reclaim it.
But I mean, that's basically where they started suppressing the price.
Right.
So if we start making new highs.
I don't know.
I do think it's going higher, though, at this point.
It was my expectation
that we were going to see a range, but now, uh, now I kind of think we're going to end up breaking
that high and, and I'm not quite sure how high oil is going to go over the next few weeks, but
I think 180 makes sense. It honestly, it reminds me a lot of like the way I made this comparison
in the discord. Like it, it reminds me a lot of that soul run up
summer of 2021 uh from a structural standpoint maybe not exactly the same but there are
definitely some some similarities there
that chart looks pretty crazy
that's gnarly That chart looks pretty crazy. It does.
That's gnarly.
Open the straight.
I thought it was hilarious that Citr trini analyst uh went to the middle east oh did he actually yeah how bad do you want it yeah in the world it's about business
oh my god i saw the funniest video.
I don't know if I want to say it, but the guy went to a No Kings protest.
He was asking about this.
Never mind.
I didn't want to say it.
You're going to get canceled.
You're going to get canceled.
If you've seen it, you know what I'm talking about.
I don't know what you're talking about, but it's okay.
You know what I think could honestly be a pretty good assessor for risk assets here over the next few weeks is Cathy Wood and ARK.
Hmm.
What does ARK look like?
Like, if you think ARK is bottoms, you should probably be buying risk assets, and if you don't, then you shouldn't.
What is it?
ARKK.
It is 2K, right?
There's two ARK. Isn't it ARKK. It is 2K. There's 2R.
Isn't it ARKK?
What happened?
What is that structure? I don't even know what i'm looking at this is like the like a it's like a bottom range megaphone breakout to a bull flag like golden the golden dragon the golden dragon
yeah you don't see it it's not a golden shower didn't see the golden dragon accumulation on
on arc not gonna make it
because i i still think arc looks a lot like the nasdaq in the wake of like
the tech bubble like the echo bubble um you know what i'm talking about
like if you look at 2000 yeah if you look at the NASDAQ from 2000 to 2008,
to me, like the ARC chart is kind of like a direct parallel to 5C.
Yeah, this still looks bullish to me though.
Are you bullish on Cathy Wood making money, Louie?
She did here.
What are her holdings these days? I don't even know.
That's a great question she traded circle really well
10 in tesla crisper tempest shopify coin robin hood circle amd roku roblox what a garbage vomit basket that is
what a degen garbage makeup i've ever seen that is crazy this actually kind of looks
what this is professionally managed you wouldn't get it if you asked the
majority of like 15 to 25 year olds what they would put in an etf or what how they'd structure
an etf this is exactly what they would make didn't uh roblox get like in big trouble for something really bad
something with kids i think i read i think i read something about that
oh yeah what's the ticker rblx i think yeah as a big user of roblox
dude that chart oh damn just a little sweep of the all-time high no big deal
oh molly just a little sweepy sweepy sweepy
looks like a shit coin yeah wow that looks horrible that's something you want to own as a major etf
holy moly it's kind of like robin hood in a lot of ways
didn't quite go as high though i found this guy on x that is pounding the table on peloton
what interesting any reason um recently it's some insider buying with personal funds
you could actually see it in the volume. I was looking at it this morning.
The chart doesn't look that bad, honestly.
No. And like, I think he was like comparing it like revenue to sales debt, whatever,
whatever those guys look at. I don't know. Compared to what was the competitor, not competitor, but something similar.
Like the PE ratio is like half of a similar company with worse,
with worse fundamentals.
Like what would it take?
What would it take to pump Peloton again?
Fundamentally. I think they have a new CEO as well.
A lockdown? Yeah. 100%. pump peloton again fundamentally i think they have a new ceo as well um a lockdown yeah 100 is this our lockdown oscillator yeah it is lovely because it looks pretty bullish i'm not gonna lie
yeah i'm gonna keep it on the watch list.
This is like another chart that, yeah, I'd love to just accumulate here and catch a fucking nice move in there.
But just timing it is tough.
I mean, there are some companies that are...
This is interesting.
Yeah, commercial gyms.
They got to get into commercial gyms.
I like the Peloton chart, Louis.
I'm glad you brought this to my attention.
Let's bet on this shit.
I kind of feel like it'll start. it'll probably go break market structure from here
good it's a little scoop i don't know about how much it's like ready to
have its real high time frame trend yet that could maybe take a little bit of time but
the chart looks uh looks intriguing. Yeah.
Looks a lot like Seoul, honestly.
Like the bottoming range a little bit.
You can catch even a range low to range high move, you can catch a nice...
Yeah.
I mean, it looks like Seoul before it went from like 16 or
17 bucks to 30 bucks the daily and then on that and then on that like pullback that was like the
last pullback before the bull market is this on anything this is what this isn't on like Ostium or anything like that, right?
There aren't really like that many individual names outside of tech that you can trade on these Dexperps yet.
Like there's Exxon.
I'm trying to think of some more. Let's see.
Steady.
Must be all tech
They have Alibaba that's interesting I didn't know that
I've got hymns. Oh, yeah, not a lot of oi on it but they do have it
pull up uh crisper louis yeah what is that crsp so it's a
uh like genome modification company therapeutics yeah so they like are able to like their technology is able to alter like dna and um like it's uh what is it
peptides no no no like like go in and like let's say like a baby has like a life-threatening
disease they can go in very early on during like the pregnancy and like alter the dna of the child to where it doesn't have it like that
disease anymore stuff like that it ain't never gonna pump why is it never gonna pump
i think that gene modification in the future is gonna be huge oh yeah so here's the thing about that is
like it's a really cool idea it's just way too controversial yeah that's true that's why i think
it's it's maybe going to struggle yeah it's because there's so many opinions on there's so
many it's so controversial man there's such a split on it um it's just one of those
things that like you can kind of objectively see both sides like one the benefit the clear and
obvious benefit but then also the opposing side is like it's human nature to just keep pushing
and pushing and pushing these things and taking them too far so it's like it's going to go from like hey this kid like is about to be born with
one arm let's go in there and intervene to like oh my you know it looks like my kid is going to be
like you know five foot you know 10 i'd like him to be six foot five and they're going to go in
there and start like genetically tampering with like kids and engineering people and it just kind of becomes
like playing god in a sense so it's like that's obviously not like what this company's focusing
on right away but it's like dude they start making money things start working like it's it's just
gonna it's always gonna be too controversial of like a subject to go mainstream
i feel like but that doesn't mean that it's not like good tech that's just kind of how i view it
but again i don't i don't have much of an edge in like this arena that's just kind of how i view
this topic is like i don't think that Apple and Microsoft
are very controversial.
They just make products that everybody needs.
It's smooth sailing.
DNA tampering,
gene therapy, whatever.
Sure, it could have amazing benefit,
but it's like, i don't know there's
just always going to be too much controversy i feel like i think though controversy can definitely
be a good thing you know it can be a double-edged sword um but you know that controversy does kind
of bring you know the eyes and the attention in a way which for stock can be a good thing um
you know bringing the volume and you know all the buyers and sellers and all that um
you know because i mean if you kind of like look back through history right i mean
a lot of people looked at apple i mean i remember my dad told me stories of apple
at the time and people were like
apple's gonna go bankrupt nobody's using their products right horrible company um and then now
they're one of the largest in the world right and you look at um you look like at like a robin hood
right and very early on people were like you know who's gonna want this kind of like
you know i don't know this like shack company that's you know gonna custody their assets like
you know who doesn't want the traditional brokerages like you're what you don't have
a financial advisor managing your money right um what uh and then now obviously
the kind of in the financial renaissance where everybody uh seems to be managing their own money
in some way or another more so than what we've seen in prior generations and to your point i
mean there will probably have to be some form of regulation in regards to like gene therapy but i think as it kind of evolves it's gonna you know really push
human civilization um you know to live longer to have higher quality of life you know uh but
where it starts to get weird is kind of like the designer baby
things you know like you said right where it's like oh i want my kid to have you know perfect
hairline and you know um you know golden bronze skin and you know no acne and yada yada yada and
all that that's where it starts to get a little weird but i had a buddy that worked directly with crisper um on like the
gene modifications and he even told me like it's so complex we're still so far out to the point to
where you know you know because there's i forget how you know you know how large you know dna is and like the standpoint of like millions or billions
of different you know individual you know little genes but to find the exact one that you know does
that you can alter to change you know this one thing it it takes a tremendous amount of time
so you know maybe this is a name for the future but right now it's it's very much so kind of flying under the radar
and at five billion market cap that is not not bad
yeah charters look bad
looks like reaccumulation to me i mean at Palantir. We talk about controversial
assets that can
still do really well.
Yeah, that's true.
But see, that's
like, it's a...
Okay, yes.
Absolutely. But the difference is Palantir
is like a
big brother company while gene therapy is goingantir is like a big brother company.
Well, gene therapy is going to have to be a retail driven like company.
Like, I don't think if Palantir didn't have like, you know, humongous government contracts and contacts, they'd be dead in the water, man. No private citizens are pumping that stock
to the valuations that it is, right?
And that's nothing against Palantir.
It's just like you're not going to see a gene therapy company
get the same kind of treatment and valuations
as basically an arm of the government.
It's just
way different.
But yeah.
Kind of like a dystopian
take. At what point does
gene modification
become like a federal
interest?
Well, I think
it's an interest for them but i just don't
think it's something that uh will ever go mainstream you know like i think there's enough
people that look people want they want good medicine they want they want to lean into
technology to improve their lives there's clearly demand for that without question
but i also think there's enough people that when it comes down to it that there is something within the technology to improve their lives. There's clearly demand for that, without question.
But I also think there's enough people that when it comes down to it,
that there is something within all of us,
whether you believe in God and creationism, or whether it's just some innate trait that was instilled in us
through a long period of evolution.
Whatever you may think, there's something in us that is like
acknowledges and feels like the human like the human aspect like the the human spirit and
i think most people are like interested in the idea of improving the self.
I want my kids to have a better life.
But there's a threshold
that they will not cross
for most people because
they feel as though they're
playing a game that they shouldn't be playing.
Most people, not everybody.
I don't think
it's whether you have a strong faith
or whether you believe that we evolved for monkeys over trillions of years. I don't think it's do it. I would feel as though I'm tampering with
either like God's design or the natural order, you know, either one, I don't want to tamper with
nature or God's design, whichever side of the aisle you fall on. I think it's one of the same
thing either way. And I think most people feel that like, look what happens when you tamper with
like nature, you know, you remove all the wolves from like a certain
region um so that like the uh the elks can you know repopulate but then it ends up creating this
like spiral effect this domino where they remove the wolves which then cascades some other like
you know species which then actually kills off more of the elks and you get like the opposite
of the intended result when you
tamper with nature, you know, and that does apply to people too. And I think most people,
whether they can articulate that or not, or they feel that they recognize that, like, I'm not gonna,
I'm not gonna push things too far. I'm not gonna tamper with the natural order of things. And then
the other side of it is obviously, you know, people don't want to tamper with God's design,
right? We were made a certain way, some with flaws, some know, people don't want to tamper with God's design, right?
We were made a certain way, some with flaws, some without.
I'm not going to tamper with that.
But I don't know.
I just am not super, like, interested in the gene therapy thing.
Not because I don't think there's some solid applicable potential use cases, but it's like, just keep going back to it's just too
highly debated of a topic for it to
catch wind. Like, major, major
wind. That doesn't mean it won't be used.
I don't know. I just think people are
I don't think people want to invest
in something that's that controversial, personally.
But hey, I could be completely wrong.
That's how I'm viewing it.
Peter Thiel will.
He probably will.
He loves
that kind of thing.
Yeah, but he was also the guy
that couldn't answer the question on camera.
They were like, do you think the human race
should continue on or whatever, along those lines and he was like
dude what's wrong like what what do you mean i don't know what do you mean that's like the most
soft toss freebie let's try to make you look normal to the public question of all time you
know you didn't answer it and you didn't answer it all you had to do
was just be like yep and then everyone
would be like oh okay thank god he's not a complete
freak like what
what's wrong with you
some of these people
man will design his own
his own set of super soldiers
just for him
just for himself
I'm not joking he might actually end up doing that but
um let me just let me just let the record show i'm not joking but also let the record uh let
the record reflect that i was probably added to this panel by mistake so yeah i have no idea how I ended up here.
In the event of a federal investigation,
I have no idea how I ended up here. I love Palantir.
I love Peter Thiel. Whatever they say is what I want to say. They're smarter than me. They're better than me.
They're more morally upstanding than me. They're the greatest.
I speak for everybody on this panel
they're the greatest we're the worst
they're the best
we suck surveillance is
awesome privacy is lame
like
genetically modified people is
awesome natural
God's design is
whack like
whatever they say is cool with us like just leave us alone
you know it's all good actually not fuck that you guys are a bunch of freaks we see it the right way
let the record show that we're we're on the right side they're on the wrong side
yeah you know and i was just listening to myself and i'm like dude no i'm like being
sarcastic and trying to be funny and i feel like a bitch no dude they're freaks they're all freaks
every single one of them they're not like you guys they're not like us they're weird man they're
super weird they are i just want to like hang out with my friends and have a family and go golfing once
in a while and they're like i don't think humans should exist let's like make everybody like uh
let's make everybody some like ubi slave and like give them a bunch of like vaccines and like just
get them stuck on like our programs and just make a bunch of money off of them. And yeah,
I don't care about people.
I just view them as a number and yep,
we will watch your every move and we don't follow the same rules.
They're weird,
man.
They're so weird.
They're not like,
they're not like you guys.
Just,
just remember like they're not like you.
They're not normal.
You know,
they're not normal people. Not singling anybody out.
They're not like you guys. They don't want the same things that you guys want. They don't view
the world the same way. And that's okay. It is kind of funny how some of the biggest bulls on
tech have just become complete sociopaths. Yes, there's a weird angle to it, man.
It's because the direction of tech
has gone so apocalyptic
and so end of times, in my opinion.
We are right on that brink.
We are right on the brink
of taking things way too far
with AI and all this shit.
We are right there, man.
You know what the problem is with AI?
The first thing that they're going to do with AI,
the first thing they're going to do,
the first thing they're going to do,
besides like, oh, everybody can suddenly be a coder now.
Like, oh, that's cute.
You made an app that no one's going to use.
Good for you.
The first thing they're really going to do
is they're going to make robots.
And then you know what they're going to do with those robots?
They're going to give them parts that they should not have. You understand what I'm saying?
That's the first thing they're going to do. And then they're going to normalize it. And they're
going to tell you, Oh, it's totally fine. This is not weird by your robot that has this part that
it should not have. Okay. That's what they're going to do. Then they're going to charge you
a subscription for that part. Okay. That's what they're going to do then they're going to charge you a subscription for that part okay that's what they're going to do and then people are going to stop having families they're going to stop marrying
each other and having families because guess what their robot doesn't ask them to do chores
their robot doesn't ask them to do shit the robot makes their life easier then they're going to stop
communicating with the other sex and they're just going to have
fun with their robot that they're
paying $200 a month for.
Right? And guess what?
Then they're going to sell you another thing.
Then they're going to get you on the subscription model
and the add-on model with your robot.
Then we're going to have a population
crisis and we're going to have a bunch of people.
We're going to have a bunch
of people out there that don't know how to communicate with each other don't know how to talk with each other
there's not going to be that many people in like a hundred years it's going to get so dark you guys
it's going to get so dark i'm telling you in the next five years you're going to see that shit go
mainstream and that's why they're not like you you know and there's probably some of you in the comments that are like I'd buy that robot
don't do it don't buy the robot
don't do it
I don't know
Manish you gotta listen to what I'm saying
man this is all alpha man
this is like this is real stuff like
this is not hey your shit
coin's gonna pump but like this is some
real shit here man this is where the world is your shitcoin's gonna pump, but like, this is some real shit here, man.
Like, this is where the world is going.
I can see it clear as day.
Yeah.
They're freaks.
They're not like you.
They want to sell you a robot.
They want to sell you a robot and normalize that.
Don't let them do it.
It's real, Manish.
Your shitcoins maybe will pump again, but that's real. It's real, Manish. Your shit coins maybe will pump again.
But that's real. It's real stuff.
We just need to leave
this range or we're all going to lose our minds.
There's a little bit of that going on too.
I stopped
focusing on all the freaks around
me when my bags are pumping.
That is true.
Well, I don't know what happened, man.
I don't know.
That's probably a good spot to wrap the show up.
If I had to guess.
Hopefully you guys enjoyed today's episode of market check. Our first of the week. A reminder that we host these shows live when the New York Stock Exchange is open
on the following days, Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. So we won't see you tomorrow,
but we will be back on Wednesday for another episode. I don't even want to make a joke about
volatility because I'm just going to see what happens, right?
I'm not going to joke about it.
We'll see what happens.
But Market Check goes live next Wednesday, of course, with our typical start time around 1130 a.m. Eastern Standard Time.
So we'll see you guys on Wednesday, but also make sure to tune in for Market Talk hosted by the legendary King Wabi guys. That is our afternoon spaces with a typical start time around 3.30 to 3.45 PM EST.
You can find that not just on Wabi's X account, but also on the BecauseBitcoin X account. It is
a spaces rather than on YouTube, but I believe Wabi is out today. So probably expect the first basis of the week to be tomorrow.
Thank you guys for tuning in, though.
We hope you enjoyed the show.
We hope you have a great rest of your day, a great rest of your week.
Thank you again for tuning in.
And of course, as always, guys, stay safe.
