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95% of All Bitcoin That Will Ever Exist Has Now Been Mined | Market Check
Recorded: March 11, 2026 Duration: 1:04:07Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by
BB. There is no second best live YouTube stream to talk about the markets.
Welcome back, everybody. Happy Wednesday, our first show since Monday. We're still kind of
seeing these ranging conditions, but you know i think max said
this on the discord this morning uh it feels like we're in a range but also at the same time
there's been plenty of stuff happening realistically uh over the last few days
obviously involving the war we've seen pretty crazy swings in the market i think we had cpi today i
this is the i actually don't even know what the print was.
So maybe we'll have to talk about that.
But regardless, guys, lots, I think, still going on in the markets, despite the fact that we are kind of still awaiting what we feel like is an imminent move.
Maybe we just range forever.
Maybe we just range forever while everybody calls for higher and lower targets.
And we see lots of dispersion in the,
you know, in the meantime, but regardless, we're going to have a great show for you all today.
Talk about where we think that next move could go and obviously what it could look like. I'm
Snorlax. You also know me as Tommy. I'm joined by Max and Big Country Tuck. And yeah, before we can
get rolling, I'm going to ask if you guys can hit that like
button for us. Maybe we get soybeans today, maybe not. I won't make a joke about it, but I can't
promise that we won't see soybeans either if you don't hit the like button. So do your part,
run it up. We're going to do our part, have a great show, great analysis for you guys today.
And yeah, let's get after it. But as far as the market goes i mean the s&p is
kind of down about half a percent uh it's not really even worth discussing i think what's more
notable right is kind of the fact that we had this downside swing thank you that girl josie
for the super chat um i think the more notable thing for the s&P is that we've kind of seen this. We saw, you know, obviously a fake out move over the over the weekend on fears about the war.
Obviously, oil spiked to one hundred and twenty dollars a barrel.
But now that that has kind of been like that thought is kind of being let out, I feel like, or like the air of that thought is kind of being let out specifically like the oil pricing.
kind of being let out specifically like the oil pricing. But I guess given everything that's
happening in the Middle East, it's not a surprise that we're kind of seeing yields move a little bit
higher today. We don't know if that's going to have any impact on the market potentially. But
again, I mean, I think the fact that we saw this move down and a resulting buyback, it does create
kind of an interesting scenario for equities here, right? Are we going to see
this turn into a true reversal back to new highs? Or is that kind of like a test dump
before we see more dominoes fall in the death of the chud jack, right? We know how I feel about
that. But yeah, at the same time, I mean, the Dow is still, I think, the weakest index in the market. Tech continues to hold up pretty strongly, all things considered. But when we're talking about crypto, Bitcoin is trying to curl up, right? Is this going to be another shallow shoulder? Or is this the beginning of, you know, potentially a market structure break and we go higher?
Obviously, we haven't something I was thinking about last night.
I mean, we still don't know when we're getting the Clarity Act.
But I want to say that didn't they set a deadline for like end of February to get that done?
I guess there's some other things probably going on in Congress right now that take bigger priority than that.
But that is still a headline that I think is on the table for crypto.
Whether or not it moves the market, I don't know. But yeah, Bitcoin's curling up. But that is still a headline that I think is on the table for crypto.
Whether or not it moves the market, I don't know.
But yeah, Bitcoin's curling up.
Is it a shoulder?
Are we about to see a larger market structure break?
And when I was looking at altcoins this morning, I think if we were to see really any material move higher on Bitcoin,
a lot of these altcoins are probably looking at fairly decent squeezes here, right?
Looking at something like SUI, for example.
Obviously, Hyperliquid, I think, tagged almost $37 this morning.
So there clearly is like a best coin in the market.
I will say that.
And that coin is Hyperliquid.
I don't have to explain the fundamental thesis. I feel like everybody kind of knows at this point, the hype fundamental thesis, and obviously the best advertisement for fundamentals
will always be price ironically, but how are we doing guys? What are we seeing in the markets?
What are we thinking about everything that we're seeing at the moment? I feel like it's once again,
kind of a mixed bag with all of this dispersion as we wait for probably these more liquid assets
like the S&P, the Dow Jones and the NASDAQ to finally make a move.
Good morning, guys. Good morning.
I'm back, baby. I'm back.
Thank you guys for the warm welcome in the comments.
Great to be back.
I've been just grinding lately.
We're getting ready to launch a new product that we've been working on for a long time.
Really excited about it.
Really, really excited about it.
Really, really excited about it.
I just haven't had the time to be on the shows, do anything other than just work on getting this new product ready.
I've missed being here. I really have.
It's been really antisocial lately in the Max department.
I go all day just like not
seeing anybody so it's nice to be back uh we're getting really close to launching you know like
for our discord we'll probably run some beta tests um you know either within the next couple
days give it to everybody there um or maybe just wait till next week at this rate. We'll see. We're getting really close. But
yeah, guys, we're getting really close. So I'll be back returning to the normal schedule here
within, I would say within a week at the most. I guess I'm kind of just here today because we're
really short staffed. Jack is sick. Prometheus is on a vacation.
Louie's not here Wednesdays, so we're just a bit scattered.
But if you are in the Discord,
I've been in all those calls every morning
and kind of sharing my thoughts and stuff like that.
It's really...
The Chud Jacks are winning, man.
Nothing is happening.
But it feels like everything is happening at the same time.
I feel like there's so much headline garbage coming in.
There's so much to watch, but yet nothing is happening.
Stocks are ranging.
Crypto's ranging.
Stocks look like they're trying to top.
Crypto kind of looks like it's trying to bottom relatively. but then you kind of go in a loop and you're like well how the hell or how's crypto
going to bottom if stocks are topping and then you kind of go down the the rabbit hole of like well
i don't know individuals have started to sell off like Microsoft nuked 30%. Leaders like hood have sold off 50%. Oracle's down
what like a million percent. So like there are these kind of like at one point in the past year,
like fiscal year, you know, these leaders that have basically sold off and puked most of their
gains. But then the basket is providing so much insulation.
Like QQQ has been range bound since September.
You know, literal like chop zone of death.
So it's just one of those really weird times
where I've been emphasizing to our community,
like sometimes the best trade is no trade truly like cash is a position and i've
been holding a lot more cash than i normally do because i want to i want to take all the the
profits and the gains that i made shorting the past six months and be able to effectively compound
those and use those to strike at the right time like there's no merit
in trying to position too early on downside for equities and you could be right on the direction
and you could even be playing the right strike but if you don't purchase enough duration on those
on those puts you're gonna end up getting clobbered i mean you could have shorted you could have bought some like 560 puts for you know april or may and bought them at the beginning of the
year and you could have top ticked it at like 635 on qqq and you could be basically zeroed out on
those at this point you know so you just have to be really careful trying to play downside on baskets
right on the baskets the qqq uh the spx you know the russell the dow like there have been little
spurts of like weekly weakness but this thing is just so either resilient or just lagging individuals, right?
But I also will throw into the mix.
I think personally, I think it gets to a point where you have to say,
okay, some individuals have puked.
Good, right?
Solid, little reset.
At some point, if the basket does not bend the knee and begin
to roll over, I think you have to sort of entertain that the Bears opportunity has come
and gone. We can't just sit here for nine months or 10 months for a year, essentially doing nothing.
There eventually will be a break of value one way or another. So it seems like this is the opportunity for bears.
I'd say they're still ever so slightly in control.
But if there's not a capitalization on this range bound weakness, then I think eventually
you have to just assume, OK, maybe the basket is insulated enough.
You know, maybe individuals can sell, but the basket really
won't. So I don't know. It's a really weird time. I think this is a time that requires a lot of
patience. I don't think that you should be forcing a position. For me, I'd rather wait to chase equities down when we're actually breaking value than try to position now while we're stuck in quicksand and just have to fight theta the entire time.
I don't want to get decayed out of a position at all.
But yeah, I mean, I'm kind of assuming equities don't sell off, like kind of expecting crypto to drift higher here locally.
But I remain incredibly flexible.
Like it's not a super clear read right now across the board.
Yeah, I mean, I kind of agree with you on the indices.
It's like, you know, buying buying cues puts is a tough pill
to swallow right because i mean you would have gotten absolutely obliterated the last six months
trying to do that um tough way to make a living this whole cycle yeah yeah like i don't think
shorting indices is the move but i mean there has been opportunity in in buying puts on individual names
um for sure there has you know i just i just brought some up like hood and coin and palantir
if you did that i mean sofi got destroyed you know a lot of them look pretty terrible too
microsoft i know louis was looking at. That's another one that's pretty much like QQQ.
You know, it's like, I don't,
Apple's not one that I would want to short really ever.
Not because they're, you know, innovating every day, but.
Because I mean, it just,
it does just kind of go up into the right and like it's
you can so easily be shorting somewhere and it's just gonna continue distributing for like
another two months and you're just gonna get burned you know like there's just i just
there's other there's other charts i'd rather short like Google you know I'm just you've
been talking about Google for a while mm-hmm I'm still short it I'm still
those puts are in profit but like barely because it's taken it's taken longer
than I would have liked I mean they're for June you know so I think it's ready
to puke man I know I think it's I might have to be an adder here, but... You know what I think it looks like
is ETH in, like,
2021 at the top.
Oh, I actually...
I do see that, actually. Let's see.
Not exactly
the same, but, like, I see
some comparisons to that, like,
massive, super parabolic
run-up that it had just a super thin
move up like you know not the second half of the first half of 2021 you don't think like this move
and then this no i think uh it looks more like um like that yeah geez blow off top
i mean that's why i was trying to short is because this move is so thin you know and it's all just ai
height driven whatever and google's gemini is kind of garbage you know like
oh yeah i mean quad is better tragedy pg is even better you know it I mean quad is better TragGPG is even better
you know it's like
can you pair chart Google
against the QQQ
like what does the pair look like
yeah
I think that's
useful for most of these mag 7 names
quite frankly
there used to be a little button
down here that you could click and it would
just blow up one of these screens and they took the button away i don't know where the hell they
did put it but all right um it's very much like an oscillator uh at least like the meta ndx pair
has been very much an oscillator and i think it looks bad the meta and dx pair okay let's do that
and actually like google qqq doesn't look the worst i mean it's pretty much the same but
that looks like god dude that looks like the tesla breakout in 2020 it was an oscillator
until it broke out but
yeah i don't know i I mean, I just...
You pull some of these and it's just like...
Whoa, wait, was there a wick? What is it doing?
Let me go back to QQQ.
There must have been some weird wick.
Yeah, I don't know. It's super thin underneath like where we bought them so far
you know what that looks like tucker that high time frame google qqq chart what go to the tesla and look at 2019 and 2020.
I'm not saying it's going to do all that,
but like,
if you look at the,
the way the consolidation looks,
it looks the same.
Just the oscillation and then it sent and never came back.
But I mean,
this did happen.
Yes.
You know, that's where you'd be contending we are right now.
It's like up in here, maybe right here.
This is good for me to mentally bookmark, though.
Yeah.
I mean, because then maybe it's a bid once it
that came into like its third band
i mean that would be like
0.46 270s i'm looking for more than 270s bro i don't i'm not buying well the nasdaq's gonna puke too
yeah at least that's how i view it this this volume profile should scare you if you're a google poll dude i don't i don't know about all that i mean it had it has been a
really interesting market though right and like max max touched on it in his intro as well like
uh if you were just short at the index level you've been bleeding theta for for months uh
and there have been like there have been some individual names with some pretty incredible volatility that have been great to trade.
I'm glad that Coinbase was highlighted, Palantir got...
Software as a sector basically just got completely destroyed.
The question is, do you think they have another leg down with these MAG7 names?
Or are we just going to kind of continue to go
sideways into an eventual resolution higher uh on indices the only you guys are fractal chuds right
you love a good fractal yes yeah okay so can you go to the can you go to QQQ for me?
Or NDX or just one of the NASDAQ
tickers. Alright.
Do me a favor.
Take a little fractal
from the COVID drop
into like the whole rally
following COVID.
Just from the top of COVID.
Right before the drop for COVID. Give me a little
fractal chud from right there all the way through. Perfect. Now throw that over the April scare that
we had. Yeah, right there. It kind of fit it a little bit. One thing I'm considering is that
we're just kind of in like the first pause slash correction following the v drop obviously much different catalyst than
covid but it doesn't really matter similar price action in the pace of the drop and the magnitude
of the drop um after and then do me want just zoom out a little bit more keep that on there
Zoom out a little bit more.
Keep that on there.
Draw a horizontal line from the top of COVID before the sell-off.
Right there.
So that was your all-time high.
Now do that again for the April.
Yeah, right there.
So this is really our first correction after a V recovery.
Right?
And I remember distinctly, like very vividly, following COVID,
I remember that period of straight-up denial from the market.
Absolute denial.
The economy is shut down.
Inflation is ramping up.
We are going to nuke.
That V recovery was fake.
This is not sustainable.
We're screwed, right?
And it was just kind of like a choppy,
I call it the stairway to heaven pattern,
where you just V recover,
and then you enter this mechanical drift higher
with very shallow pullbacks,
but each one looks highly distributive.
I think we should also consider that maybe just
maybe this is a a similar correction in like we just simply v recovered and now we're gonna do
that like annoying mechanical drift higher where vol just gets crushed and floored out and you get
these shallow corrections every quarter or two
that seem distributive, but they're not really. So I don't know. It's just something I'm considering
because of how long it's taken. And we're just paused here. And we are seeing individual names
roll over, which can be healthy. But I think if those individual names like a Microsoft,
that carries a lot of weight in the QQQ.
I don't know what the percentage is.
I would say at least 5% or something.
I don't know what percentage of the index it makes up.
But it's down 30% and the basket QQQ hasn't moved.
What if Microsoft starts rallying from here?
It's down 30%. What if it starts rallying from here? It's down 30%. What if it rallies 20%
from here? That's probably going to cause the index to make a new all-time high
just off of one name recovering from its drop.
I hope Microsoft doesn't recover as a
put-holder.
Well, it doesn't have to.
I'm more just entertained.
It's not like my bias, you know, I guess I'm more just observing what I'm seeing and recognizing that there are real risks to both sides getting completely eviscerated here.
And that's what we see in crypto a lot is like when you enter these prolonged ranges, which have just plagued crypto for a long time, people just, they play tug of war with each other. Right. And it's like
the longer the range lasts, the more their conviction and stubbornness for their bias
grows. And then that's what leads towards people getting their faces ripped off. And I think we're
starting to see that with equities a little bit where, and again, I live in a little bit of an
echo chamber, but it's like i think a
lot of crypto people have totally shifted towards trading commodities and stocks mainly because now
they're easily you know accessible through crypto exchanges and they're like going to tug a war with
each other over which which way these like blue chip stocks and like, copper, silver, gold, oil, which way they're going to all
break. But nothing's really happening. And I'm just seeing more hostility towards positioning
and directional bias grow. So I don't really know how this resolves. I just don't know if, I don't know if the bears have much more time to break it down.
I mean,
what are we expecting?
Like another three or six months of ranging for the indexes and then
suddenly a nuke.
I don't think I can find a fractal out there in the history of the S and P
where it's done that,
you know,
tops usually form in a matter of a,
I'd say a quarter and a half-ish.
This is like, I mean, we're getting to the end of something here.
Like, something's got to give here.
There will be a break of value, you know?
I honestly think if we're still ranging in, like, two or three months,
that we're just probably not getting lower at that point.
I would agree with that.
Yeah, I mean, if you look at the VIX kind of structure, probably not getting lower at that point. I would agree with that. Yeah.
I mean,
if you look at the VIX kind of structure and look for similarities,
I mean,
obviously this went higher,
right?
This went to like the eighties,
this went to 60,
but,
you know,
the VIX here didn't get smacked back down to,
you know, like this level like 13 right until
june of 21 and then it started its kind of topping formation and then it fell off right like
why do i say slightly different right like the VIX immediately got nuked, basically.
And then is like kind of starting an uptrend.
Rather than this was just like this whole move up, the VIX was just getting crushed the whole time.
And I will say this in regards to the VIX structure.
This is kind of a scary walk higher but technically going back
to like the beginning of Trump's term
it is in fact
a lower high
right which is
it seems like kind of what we see after like the initial
blowout which we had in like summer
what summer of 24
like there's a high
weren't there for very long
and then we had another spike in April.
Or March or April 25.
This is kind of that
classic vol compression.
Does anybody else see the diagonal
on the VIX?
I hadn't even noticed it until now.
Stretch it back further.
Like this? Yeah, i hadn't seen that until you pulled that chart up but look i mean statistically speaking typically a 30 handle
on the vix is a pretty good buying opportunity but i think it's like the whole to chud or not to chud um do you think something
do you think something's gonna happen if you don't think anything's gonna happen it's probably
a great buying opportunity right shakespeare to chud or not to chud um my i was explaining to my wife not only what Chud means, but also my thesis about Chud.
What about how they're going to die this year?
I didn't put it like that.
I'm fading the chud jack.
I'm fading the Chud Jack.
I wonder if there's some other stuff we can put on here.
I think if equities make new highs from here,
there really isn't that much of a bear case, honestly.
But we're still just doing this like lower highs on the s&p higher lows on the vix and we've been like dude this this pullback this
whole downtrend in 2022 the vix didn't even get above 38 like there was no really spike blowouts you know and just from visual like
like this to me looks more similar to this than it does to this you know so
we are starting to see i think some some pretty substantial weakness out of my
yeah basically like i it feels like we're more similar to here than we are to there. HYG looks a little bit like 2020.
Like, before the drop.
Yeah, have we talked about the pre-cab?
Have we talked about this era right here?
Sorry, what is that tick? Is thatg down there yeah yes it just looks like it's about to just
fall off a cliff either like here like here is there a trend line across those lows or
is there not on hyg like starting in like yeah not that one. Yeah, like that one.
Is there something there?
Maybe?
We could massage it a little bit.
I feel like the easiest way to describe
the current market sentiment is
there's a ton of dispersion
and both bears and bulls
are using that dispersion
in different ways to justify
their bias.
I think you could get a move down to like 77 in HYG, which is not that far.
I mean, that's like, what, 3%?
Not even a big move.
big move but
did you guys see the uh the news that came out about jpm today no no uh so you know about like
all the stress in private credit right so now you have j have JP Morgan announcing today they're marking
down some of their loan portfolios to private credit groups so we're seeing I
think we're seeing some contagion the financial sector a little bit we look at
XLF this recent move down has been pretty correlated with the move indexes
kind of slow grind higher I
think like that was moving in unison are ultimately going to be prerequisites for
any downside yeah but I mean this has been been correlated, but I guess this drop was kind of correlated with the move up.
They annihilated Bond Bowl in the last year, dude.
It's actually kind of hilarious to look at the historical chart.
Look at TLT, dude.
CT bid topped this asset.
Huh? CT bid topped this asset. Huh?
CT bid top this asset.
I saw a tweet last week that said I'm bidding TLT here
because it feels like this is how I secure my spot
in the permanent upper class.
I was like I probably should short this
I was like, I probably should short this.
Tommy you've been
you've been expecting like a deviation
on this chart for a while
is that still your thought like taking out that low
I am not a bond trader
but like I see a euthanasia coaster
so I'm inclined to think that it will end up playing
no it definitely is.
What's the...
I know this is longer duration.
What is the 10-year yield doing?
I haven't even looked at it recently.
But I remember like last...
Yeah, okay.
So it's kind of back up.
It just seems like a weird time to see a new high on something
like this. I imagine if TLT
did make a new low,
even though the 10-year is not in
TLT, but they all move
together in a sense, it would be
really shocking to see the 10-year
make a new high here.
But maybe I'm missing something.
Yeah, it would definitely be shocking if this went above 5% again.
Yeah.
But it's been bid pretty steadily.
Or I guess bonds have been sold pretty steadily.
I feel like at this point I have no idea whether or not the data we're getting on the economy or inflation is actually any good.
So I have no idea what yields are going to end up doing over the next year, like literally none.
But TLT looks like a euthanasia coaster that I can see.
But I'm not really sure like I'm not really sure how to reconcile that with my bias because i'm kind of one of the only i would say i'm kind of one of the only bearish people who thinks the dollar goes lower
from here potentially you're thinking deflation then aren't you but how would that how would that
work with tlt going lower like wouldn't that cause tlt to bid in theory theory, yeah.
I could be wrong about the dollar.
That could just be what it is.
Yeah, I don't really know what to make
of the dollar here.
It doesn't look great, but...
I've seen so many
contrasting opinions
on this chart here.
I've seen people drawing lines going back to 2011,
being like, we're about to hold that channel,
and then a lot of people being like,
we're about to break down from that channel.
I've seen PO3s drawn on this chart locally,
where they're calling for this to be the deviation before new highs.
I don't know, man. I don't know
if anybody has a damn clue what's going on.
I think this is a coin toss.
A lot of this stuff feels like a coin toss to me.
Yeah.
I don't think anyone knows
what's going to happen with a dollar.
I mean,
if AI
ends up being a super deflationary trade,
then the dollar is going to go down.
Risk is probably still going to get hammered, you know.
But it's weird.
Like there's not as much signal as you'd think of just like,
oh, dollar up, risk down, dollar down, risk up.
I feel like that hasn't worked in quite some time.
Yeah.
No, it hasn't.
Yeah.
All I remember is just like watching the dollar drop
and then we're like on here debating like what the hell's wrong with crypto, you know?
I remember this.
Yeah, I remember that too
honestly in hindsight i don't think we appreciated how crazy that move on the
dollar actually was when it was occurring i know i didn't i didn't yeah the dollar milkshake boys
if you were a bro though you were probably like what the hell is going on
yeah i just remember for people calling
for like 200 on dxy when that was happening yeah 200 yeah just i mean just the lunatics man like
the the guys that draw the logarithmic trend lines going back to the great depression you know those
guys the bollinger bands on the vix you know, you know who I'm talking about.
I might be guilty of that second one.
No, no, it's different when you do it, Tommy.
It's different.
Tommy, you're not putting Bollinger Bands on the VIX.
No, you're right.
You might do a little TA on the VIX, but.
Oh, yeah.
TA on the VIX works, just saying.
Yeah. VIX. TA on the VIX works. Just saying.
What does it all mean for good old Bitcoin?
Probably zero.
Seems the most likely outcome.
Just get comfortable being broke
you know like you're in crypto
turns out
your grandma was right when she said it doesn't
have any value I don't get it it's worthless
just buy bonds and just
buy stocks you know turns out
they were right
and you were wrong there is no future
dude it reminds me of when you said Turns out they were right. And you were wrong. There is no future.
Dude, it reminds me of when you said get comfortable being broke.
It reminds me of the sunny, sunny in Philadelphia when the, like the, the trailer park people or whatever pull up and they're like,
they're like, these people have no idea how to be poor.
They're called new poor.
We are old poor.
Have some respect if you're going to be poor. They're called new poor. We are old poor. Have some respect
if you're going to be poor.
Don't appropriate our culture.
That's pretty funny.
I've been speculating
for a while that Bitcoin's still
just like Dow Jones in 2008.
I mean, I still think we're like maybe right here.
Unless we're already like here, you know.
I feel like that's the best case scenario is you're like down here and you're just going to kind of do this.
i feel like that's the best case scenario is you're like down here and you're just gonna kind
of do this which either way it's like okay we're probably gonna need some of this
to clean all this up because if i think if we went straight back up here we'd either get smacked
right here or we get smacked right here you know there's just so much supply that was bought up here that were below so
if we do break the mid 70s on bitcoin alts are gonna fly alts are gonna fly in my opinion um
but with that said i'm not really expecting us to break that level i feel like if you're a bear you should keep seeing these shallow shoulders form as you know kind of a representation of
the strength of the downtrend i mean i like i like it to do you know this kind of sped up
which it's already doing i think but like if we flip that level i actually think bitcoin could
see like upper 80s almost like a full retrace of that dump i think that's your last level to like
take a well i think we'd stop there but i don't think it would be i actually think if we flip
the last deviation like we are gonna just rock it higher oh, then we flip this high? Yeah, I think we would reject it
your Tucker Nachi line, for sure.
I've seen them work enough.
It's just there's
so much
short delta that's come in
down here that I think that that
positional unwind...
I mean, I think
it would just rocket us higher.
And I'm looking at a lot of altcoins,
like small cap altcoins that didn't join ETH and Bitcoin and their last legs down and have
just been floored out. And I'm like, man, I think most of that is behind us. And like,
if majors even just, just give an inch, man, these altcoins will take a mile.
And yeah, they're down super bad, but it's just like you'll see ETH up 20 or 30 percent and some shit coins will be up two or three X in a matter of weeks.
But again, it really all hinges on Bitcoin just like moving up a little bit from here.
And that doesn't even have to mean that like the bottom is in.
It just means like we could see some serious relief here.
I mean, people forget like in 2021, 2022,
going back and looking at the bear market, you know,
I feel like for one, the 2022 fractal feels really crowded here.
Like everybody's watching that.
When does everybody watch a fractal and it works?
You know, I see it.
I'm just like,
man,
like everybody in their grandma's calling for like the 2022 fractal.
And I get it.
We got to watch it,
but come on now.
But look at that early 2022 fractal.
We rallied from low thirties to upper forties.
I mean,
that was a significant move.
It was choppy,
but we could see some bear market rallies,
right?
That's a real thing.
You know, very much. So a real thing, you know, very much so a real thing.
For the 2022 fractal chuds, such as myself, this, I think, already played, right?
Like, this was this.
This was 48K, you know you know like in my opinion like that was the move where we got these big
chops and then we got one exhaustion and then just sent it down in a big way so i don't know
what to make of i mean this looks similar to me like this low compared to where this is you know but we could we could
be down here and like once we were down there like this was not a small move either like
we rallied from 17k up to 25 you know and i'm sure altcoin i don't really remember honestly
if altcoins sent i know a lot of altcoins bottomed right here actually well mostly i just remember matic bottoms but
what is mad at doing now i haven't thought about matic in so long
oh man sandy this is a hole wait no matic it isL. I know, but isn't that all-time?
You won't.
They're just tracking the...
They're like, man, no one wants to buy our shitcoin.
Let's just give it a new name.
Just rename it.
Give it a new name.
I remember when Tommy was...
We were back. We were right here, dude.
We were literally right here.
It's not three-day-old halibut.
It's a whole new thing.
Tommy had a target down at $0.04.
Hey, we're here.
Now, finally.
We've already arrived.
Yeah.
Get some amazing trades on Matic back in the day, man.
That was so good. It was trading this That was, uh, it was so good.
It was trading this move down.
Yeah.
That was so good.
Yeah.
But, uh, yeah, geez.
I, uh, I'm, I really want the 2022 fractal to be invalidated.
And I think it, I still think it will be.
I know, like like i know the structures
are so similar in a lot of ways uh and i think it's almost poetic that we've come this far and
the fractal is still like is still technically playing out right i think it sets up for a really nice like game theory here where if you try to where you could end up
getting wrecked over indexing the 2022 fractal right because either we squeeze either we squeeze
and uh you know that shallow consolidation that people are expecting doesn't play and you get
wrecked on these on these shorts not you t, specifically, but I'm talking about just in general.
Or the floor gives out way more than people think,
and people try to bid too soon following the 2022 Fractal
and get wrecked that way.
So I feel like one of those two things
could very well end up playing out.
The 2022 Fractal cannot play out okay i totally see it but i'm like
i i don't i can't remember a time when it's been more crowded of an idea like the whole world the
whole the whole crypto cabal is is scouting this fractal man i mean like front row seats, taking notes, drawing out four-hour pivots, explaining how the 2022 Fractal is going to hit and we're going to go to 40K.
And then they're going to buy everything.
And I'm like, it can't happen, man.
We all see it.
It's so obvious.
You're not profound and original for showing something that literally everybody is watching. We all see it. It's so obvious. You're not profound and original for showing something that
literally everybody is watching.
We all see it.
Everybody sees
it. There are some accounts pretending
like it's a very novel idea.
I know you're not one of them, Tucker. Again,
I'm not... I know. Dude, look, the only
reason that I
kind of would like it to play out is because
it's almost a revenge short.
Because I literally had this drawn up and I missed.
And I, oh dude, oh my god, wait.
You're going to freak out at this.
I had that fractal drawn out thinking we were at 48k, which ended up being real.
Didn't short 97, but I mean, I had this dude,
I had this damn this scoped out who,
and there was confluent and it was so confluent, you know,
why didn't you take it? I don't know, dude. I don't know.
Cause I was like, why didn't you take it?
We'll just go to a hundred. Fuck it. Like, you know,
it was like something like this basically and we came up and we just
you know to the tick oh so this time i've not made the same mistake i've set limit orders where they
need to be set but now i'm worried it's just gonna get blown through because there's no way it's going to work again you know it's like a missed
opportunity but we'll see i'm still going to leave the limit orders we'll see what happens you know
but i mean i i don't think that bitcoin is really going to trade significantly above the high from like a week or two ago so in that sense
you know i guess we'll keep the spirit of the 2022 fractal alive right
yeah i mean i'm cool if it doesn't trade above it i wouldn't get filled which is fine but like
Which is fine, but like, in a perfect world, for me, you know, it would come up here, get smoked, and then go to like 40k.
That would just be chef's kiss for me, but, you know, probably not going to happen.
Dude, we cannot do the 2022 fractal.
Like, we have to completely derail that idea.
And consensus needs to be that, all right, that didn't work.
Bottom must be in.
And then we can nuke.
I'm fine with nuking after that.
But it can't be from here, man.
We can't let that happen.
And here's the thing.
If you are bearish longer term, if you really want to squeeze all the short profits out of this market, we need fuel to really put in a nuke.
Do you want to have a baby nuke from here or do you want to see 88 to 48?
That's a real short.
You don't want it from here, man.
That's a pathetic little – you know, you don't want that. I know. And we have to remember, too, that this move down from where 2022 would say we are was 100% driven by Luna.
100%.
This was all Luna.
Like this move from 30K to 17 was all Luna.
And here's why we can't have that, fundamentally speaking and cyclically speaking.
We didn't have any like fundamental shit coin
that even tried to innovate
anything close to Luna man we don't even
have the premier Ponzi to collapse
this cycle this cycle was
a bunch of animal coins
no one built shit
have you seen the way they're talking about the
micro strategy bonds this week
the STRC
yeah they're getting real horned up about STRC
and that 11% APY.
Yep.
Oh no.
Can I ask you
a question, one of you?
This is the oldest question
in crypto and I'm going to ask it to you.
Where does the
yield come from?
Oh man. crypto and I'm going to ask it to you. Where does the yield come from?
Oh man. Can anybody answer that question? There is an answer to it. There is an answer,
but where does the yield come from? The stockholders of MicroStrategy are the yield.
What? What? No. What are you implying?
That somehow MicroStrategy
figured out a way to give yield
three times that of market rate
and it's sustainable?
Is that what you're telling me?
Yeah, have you heard of the Luna Foundation
Guard?
Here's the thing, man.
Big banks could easily be giving 11% APY in money market accounts.
They just don't want to.
MicroStrategy, in a matter of a few years, figured out a way to 3x, in a safe way, the yield that banks have not been able to offer forever.
For over 100 plus years.
I mean...
I'm incredibly generous of them.
Yeah, I just have one question.
Where does the yield come from?
Oh, man.
I actually kind of feel like it's time to short MSTR, speaking of.
Oh, man.
I got Tommy going.
You did.
I've been wondering how to feel about this chart for a while now.
I just, I'm with you.
It's just at the same time trying to short something that's down like what?
80% or something from its all time high.
Yeah.
The tough part with this is it's like,
it's hard to position in a way where you would be better off shorting this than something else
because options are going to be more expensive considering that considering that duration
probably needs to be the number one factor in options positioning right now and we see the way
indexes are trading like if you buy enough duration that the trade actually plays out i mean
you have to just buy some absurdly out of the money strikes
and hope the micro strategy goes to zero
to outperform shorting something else.
But I actually think this is like...
This thing is fried, man.
This is an easy invalidation.
Tucker, do me a favor.
Draw a line under that last consolidation at like 160, that range low.
Right there.
You reclaim that, you probably drift higher.
Really simple.
You could even put it like...
And maybe, Tucker,
if you're in the mood for it,
maybe you could fill out a quick form for us.
Yeah.
With full financial reimbursements Just yeah. Yeah. Yeah.
Yeah.
With full financial reimbursements if wrong,
you know?
Yes.
Yes.
I mean,
this one was already,
I don't even know if you're going to get another high because like,
you know,
when something's downtrending,
this,
this coming back into a wick and getting smoked is usually a top,
but if you get another chance at it it's probably a pretty
you know what i you know what i think this is man
you pull up city group oh man there's your 10 hour form can you pull up city group and go to
the 2007 to 2008 price action the way that way that Tommy from memory just pulls out these obscure fractals is incredible.
The NYSE version of it.
What did you say?
NYSE.
Like the data exchange.
Oh, oh, oh.
You just have to...
Yeah, it's at the bottom.
It's kind of annoying for some reason. Why did they it's at the bottom it's kind of annoying for some reason but
why do they put it at the bottom i've studied these like big bank charts during 2008
how is this city group chart okay wait there must be like a stock split or something right like
there's no way this is a real daily
go back there's no way that's a real chart, right?
Yeah, 110 split right here,
but it was already down 90% after OA.
That's why.
Tucker, go to that shoulder before it.
Not that one.
The small one.
The one right.
Nope.
Go back.
The really small one at like 475.
Right before the breakdown, Tucker.
Right before the breakdown. That little nub.
Take that shoulder to the bottom and put it on the MSTR chart.
I swear to God, I did not have this in the object tree before.
not have this in the object tree before.
Oh, no.
now you know why they hide the NYSE
data source
at the bottom when you search it.
They don't want you to see it.
People like Tommy are going to just pull.
Tommy will find it. You cannot hide a fractal from him.
You'll have to put it on log.
On log.
It's time to use
logarithmic charts, but not for the reason
beyond zero
no it's
at 3.30ish
put the shoulder at like 3.30ish
on MSDR
oh my goodness
I see it fit that thing
oh geez
where is it?
Tighten it up a little bit, Tucker.
Drag it left.
Yeah.
And fit the... Like, it's quick to that?
I know.
I think it's a good bit tighter than that.
So towards the end of that super dubious chop.
Are you trying to say we're in this?
Shoulders could be there, basically? No, no. like super dubious job like are you trying to say we're in this shoulder should be like there
basically no no like dude we're you need to like almost skip the initial downtrend like ignore that
tighten it up completely like shrink the fractal are you saying we're in this shoulder no like the
end of the shoulder of like the big choppy shoulder all right right, see how MicroStrategy Tucker did? It's doing like a three drive into the low.
Like that, yes.
Like that.
Okay, just ignore this, whatever.
But yeah, this is...
Dude, that would be wild.
Just for the first time.
Why does it kind of fit too?
Yeah.
Oh my gosh.
Yeah, let me just go ahead and extend this form if we do have downside here
this might be one of those buy some like 50 strikes for just like every 30 to 60 days just
keep rolling them until one hits you can lose 10 in a row and when it finally hits you'll cash out 200x you know every 30 days just roll them
roll them, roll them until it works
you know
man oh man
I don't know man
it's a wild thing to think about
it really is
I mean this whenever we fit fractals we always at least i always put
it as like the next move is pretty much eminent you know it's like but are we sure are we sure
we're not like here almost i don't even think it matters you literally just keep buying 30 to 60 day
You literally just keep buying 30 to 60 day contracts.
You just put your stop up here.
60% out of the money.
And you just expect to get burned every time until one hits a 200X.
And then you're good.
Stop above 190.
Hey, wait, what's going to cause this, right?
Let's talk about that.
I like a fractal, right? But fractals without context are nothing. So what's going to cause this? Let's talk about that. I like a fractal, but fractals without context
are nothing. What's going to cause this?
I think Bitcoin's going to sell out.
I've been wondering what the catalyst for all markets
was going to be for months now.
I can only dubiously speculate.
I think I'm just done speculating
on what the cause is going to be,
but I know it's going to be something.
If we really think about it, right,
what in the past has been the Ponzi to nuke everything, right?
And it's some company, some crypto project slash company
slash company that adopts a treasury strategy, Luna.
that adopts a treasury strategy, Luna.
They offer some sort of DeFi, CeFi yield generation product, right?
And there's a lot of hype and a cult around how they've revolutionized
the financial industry.
MicroStrategy checks all three of those, unfortunately, right?
strategy checks all three of those
unfortunately.
They hit the
yield generation thing
by offering their
STRC product with
three times market rate yield.
They're a treasury
company that
almost exclusively uses, not
exclusive, but almost exclusively uses
debt to finance their Bitcoin purchases.
And they have a cult following
that is claiming that they've redefined
equity, debt,
credit markets
all in one.
It's almost
like the trifecta
of zero
is what it is.
Trifecta of zero. And I is. It's trifecta of zero.
And I just want to be clear.
I'm actually rooting for Michael Saylor.
I'm one of the few,
certainly on this panel,
that I actually want to see him win.
But when you really objectively look at like,
in the past,
like I know how strong the narrative is.
I know how, you know,
how believable it can be.
When you really look at like, where people have gotten into trouble in the past,
certainly in crypto,
he's hitting all three, right?
They've got all three.
And I return back to my question.
Where does the yield come from?
I don't even think Saylor knows where the yield comes from.
And the answer to the famous question of,
if you don't know where the yield comes from, you are the yield.
That's the answer.
That's crazy.
Does Bitcoin produce a yield from staking?
Something I'm unaware of?
Can you stake your Bitcoin for a yield? staking? Something I'm unaware of?
Can you stake your Bitcoin for a yield? Where does the yield come from?
Does the yield come from MicroStrategy's cash flow
from their operating business?
So it doesn't come from Bitcoin.
It doesn't come from their operating business.
So where does it come from?
Are they giving out loans?
What are they doing?
Some things are better left unsaid for the sake of the industry.
I actually just want to know.
Someone should just tell me.
Teach me if I don't know.
I'm probably missing something, right? Yeah. Okay. So the yield basically comes from Bitcoin's price goes up and they simultaneously sell covered calls.
So like Bitcoin price up with vol down, you double dip and you make money.
Like the yield you're able to offer is the amount that Bitcoin goes up on an annual basis on top of the yield that you get for selling the covered calls.
So this way, like in theory, they should protect their downside with the covered calls in the
process. But obviously, if vol spikes really hard, then, you know, not only do they get like
they get wrecked because the covered calls can't outpace the Bitcoin decline. So that's why MicroStrategy tanks the hardest
when DVOL is pumping.
Because it's like basically
nuking their source for yield.
Okay.
Thank you. Now I know where the yield comes from.
And they're just diluting
their shareholders to buy Bitcoin.
That's also
not great.
There's just no reason to hold microstrategy like just hold bitcoin if you like what they're doing
you know you know sailors is gonna blow his load every monday and buy at the pico top of the weekly candle. Like, it's insane.
The yield comes from grandma's retirement account.
Yeah.
Man, I will say at least the one thing policymakers
did do a good job of is, you know,
unlike the mortgage-backed security crisis,
those things are like private equity investments and all the trash weren't thrown into people's
pensions. So at least that was good. But I guess they're kind of indirectly exposed through
just market, the market in general, you know,
just market, the market in general, you know,
at the index level, the tech level.
Man, that's crazy though.
I did not, hand to God,
I did not know that was gonna be the case.
Yeah.
All right.
Wrap it up on that happy note, Tommy.
Sorry about that.
Sorry about that.
But all right.
Hopefully you guys enjoyed the show today.
Felt like we covered a lot of very salient topics.
Had a lot of fun in the process.
I hope.
Maybe not Michael Saylor, but I think the panel at least did.
Regardless, guys, if you enjoyed Market Check today,
reminder that we do these shows throughout the week,
Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday if the New York Stock Exchange is open.
So you can catch us again tomorrow.
Oh, I mean, it's Thursday.
What do you think is going to happen on Thursday tomorrow, Tucker?
Are we going to continue the trend?
Yes, we are.
for sure i guess we'll see um i wonder i almost i know that i was doing the outro but i almost
For sure.
I guess we'll see.
feel like thursdays and fridays are going to start the switch going forward um chem carson
made a comment about that last week the croissant it's been a while since i brought him up on the
show but brought him up on the show i guess i could have phrased that better regardless guys
if you enjoyed market check we'll see you tomorrow. We typically start these shows around 1130 to 1140 a.m.
Eastern Standard Time. So we'll catch you again tomorrow. But also make sure to wrap up your day
with Market Talk hosted by King Wabi. That is an X Spaces hosted by not just Wabi, like I said,
but also the Because Bitcoin account on X. Make sure to stay
following and subscribe to both so you can be notified not just when we schedule those spaces,
but of course, also when we go live. And those spaces have been real like 2022 bear market vibes
recently, man. They've been absolutely cracking me up. If you're looking for some market entertainment
mixed with some alpha, make sure to finish up your day over on those spaces. But thank you guys again for tuning in.
That concludes today's episode of Market Check. We will see you tomorrow. Until then,
thank you again. And of course, as always, stay safe.
oh am i doing the uh oh you know you're the you're the outro no it's usually it max usually
does it when he's here but no i got it i got it bye guys
