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A HUGE DAY OF LIVE EARNINGS | STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: May 6, 2025 Duration: 2:29:09Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic discussion, participants explored the impact of upcoming earnings reports from major tech companies like AMD and Rivian, highlighting trends in growth and potential partnerships that could shape the crypto landscape. The conversation also touched on geopolitical tensions and their implications for market sentiment, emphasizing the importance of strategic collaborations in the evolving crypto ecosystem.
Full Transcription
Thank you. What's up, what's up? How are we doing? What is up, Evan? What's up, everyone? Happy Tuesday,
May the 6th. It's power hour, stocks Spaces. A lot of things happening in the market.
Market's kind of all over the place today, in between a couple of big levels. Slightly red
here today. Some things green, some things red. Kind of a mixed day. A lot of earnings going on
this afternoon, too. I'm excited to get into all of that. I do want to take a look around the market
real fast, Evan, before we kind of dive into everything. First off, great to hear your voice
again on Spaces with all your traveling that you've been after but uh i'm back
i'm back for a couple weeks here i'm excited there we go right time just keep you in place
keep you in place for a little bit um but yeah hey markets uh slightly red today uh they dipped
hard overnight uh recovered pretty nicely just kind of hanging out here uh down just about half
a percent uh qqQ spy. You look across
some of the big names that we talk about, NVIDIA just made a new high of day, just went green on
the day. Netflix also green. Apple has been strong and green pretty much all day. You have Google
basically breakeven, Microsoft breakeven, Broadcom breakeven, Amazon just under that. Meta, kind of
the one that stuck out a little bit to the downside as well as Tesla, a little bit red, about a percent and a half to 2% there on those two.
But overall, kind of a nothing day in the market ahead of Jerome Powell tomorrow.
We did hear Trump and Carney were meeting in the Oval Office a little bit earlier.
We heard a few things, a few hints at things that are coming.
Jensen Wong is also on CNBC right now,
talking a little bit about China, AI, NVIDIA, all those things.
So if I see any headlines over there, I'll make sure that...
Well, I'll make sure Evan calls them out,
because I'm sure he's all over that too.
But yeah, Evan, great to hear you again.
And I'm excited to see what everyone's thinking
work on getting our panel up here on stage this afternoon and see what everyone's watching it's
been kind of a slow day in the market overall yeah it's been an interesting day we've had some some
stories here and there one of the uh i thought trump and carney was an interesting one we have
a lot of earnings after the close today amd, Supermicro, Rivian, et cetera.
I just pinned the post up on the list of both, which has a lot of those earnings.
So definitely looking forward to those.
Honestly, there's probably 10 to 15 names that a solid chunk of people on FinTwit and
in general markets do care about.
There's been a lot of individual headlines that have moved markets within the last hour
or so.
There was one around with the White House planning and executive action to speed up nuclear reactor
deployment. I didn't look too closely at it, but I heard people talking that the nuclear
name is moving up off of that and it made a little sense. Yeah, it was an Axios article.
I saw NNE, NanoNuclear, as well as Oklo. Both of those got big pops oklo's up 10 right now making new highs a day
yes that was one headline there was another one about like the us and the uk may become close to
a deal it sounded specifically around like cars and aluminum or something like that but uh we'll
see what the actual kind of center on that one was and yeah a lot of other news stories happened
throughout the day maybe we'll circle back on them as we uh kind of go into the second kind of center on that one was. And yeah, a lot of other news stories happened throughout the day.
Maybe we'll circle back on them
as we kind of go into the second part of the spaces.
But I'm very much looking forward
to these earnings after the close.
AMD should be out around 4.15 p.m. Eastern.
We got Supermicro, Rivian, Elucid as well,
Alab, I know a lot of you guys
are going to go in and care about.
Electronic Arts, ANet, et cetera.
I'll stop there.
Tempest AI, a little Nancy Pelosi name.
So a lot of stuff reporting
after the close which i'm looking forward to and then actually we'll mention it quickly we do
jerome powell speaking tomorrow tomorrow is fomc uh there's he's not going to lower rates based on
everything you're looking at there but what what is he going to say what's he going to talk about
here i think the market's going to be paying attention a lot to that busy day yeah and there's
even more earnings tomorrow morning before the open. I
know a lot of people in this space have talked about Uber. I'm personally long Uber as well.
I'm excited for that report before the open tomorrow. Disney also in the morning tomorrow.
So we could hear from the Bob father himself, Nova Nordisk, another name in the morning. I know
some people will be watching. So between tonight and tomorrow, several popular names that we hear about on this space pretty often.
So I'm excited to hear what everyone is looking into.
I'm ready to go ahead and jump around the panel here a little bit, see what market thoughts and what things are going on in each of our panelists' minds and portfolios today.
So let's go ahead and go over to The Godfather.
I didn't get to hear The
Godfather yesterday. I hope you're feeling better, Mr. Godfather, and excited to have you on the
space today and see what's been on your radar. What are you watching? What's on your mind?
Yeah, it was under the weather yesterday, so I'm really playing catch up today. I didn't have a
lot of time to spend focused on the headlines. It's a really, really busy trading day for us in our community on all these earnings that you mentioned.
We had some nice wins on CCLD this morning.
XMTR, looking at EOSE, ANET, Tempus.
Those are some names in focus. And then getting ready for some other names that are of interest later in the week, like KTOS.
I know there's some folks, I'm personally not playing it, but there's some folks looking at TMDX.
I think that's a pretty popular name on Spaces.
But yeah, I've been taking positions in various names that I think should outperform.
The backdrop to the market is a little more friendly here, I think, going into earnings.
You know, there's always the earnings themselves.
There's the tenor of the market.
And then there's positioning in terms of how these companies will react when they report earnings.
And, you know, the tenor of the market and the positioning have been kind of juxtaposed here. A lot of these names, you know, are beaten down. And so going
into earnings, it's not overly challenging. And the tenor of the market, you know, if we get,
look, I know everybody's, you know, all eyes on the records in terms of, you know, the percentage move and the number of days of late that we've made back gains here.
And I do agree, you know, risks are higher now.
And, you know, certainly going into the Fed meeting tomorrow, I agree with you that nothing's going to change in terms of rates.
I think you'll probably continue to be more hawkish than the market likes to see. Frankly, Fed funds, futures, pricing in up to certainly three and up to four rate cuts
this year seems a little bit optimistic to me.
So I think the market at some point will look for an opportunity or an excuse to sell off.
But clearly tariffs and trade negotiations are still the big stick.
But, you know, clearly tariffs and trade negotiations are still the big stick.
And the Trump administration, with various individuals from Bessett to the president himself, you know, have been jawboning the market higher here.
You know, of course, with what we saw with the Canadian PM, you know, in the press conference.
But also these hints about, you know, I thought in that conference, by the way, he almost slipped to say that we've got to deal with India when he was complimenting J.D. Vance's work.
We know he's been spearheading that negotiation.
Obviously, the headlines about, you know, something being very close on the UK.
The other two countries that we know are relatively close from previous comments are Korea and Japan. So, you know, I think that that's going to play
more than, you know, possible concern about where the Fed put is. So, you know, I guess it's a
long-winded way of saying I think the tenor of the market is better for playing some of these
earnings names. And, you know, look, we've got, I think, some 75% or more of the S&P market cap
has already reported. And Q1 earnings are tracking up 12% versus 6% consensus. So, you know, that's
not too bad. In fact, that's pretty damn good. The margins are still surprising. Yeah, I know that
there's a lot of talk about pull forwards and, you know, argument about management's not being willing to admit that they are experiencing that.
But certainly my view all the way through this trade tariff process has been that what's been put out there is highly unrealistic.
And ultimately, Trump will coalesce around something that's much more market friendly.
So with that as the backdrop, I've been using it as opportunity to add to quality positions.
And I have been moving up scale because I've been thinking that the large caps, which were a
source of funds, not just for domestic, but also, of course, for international people playing the
US exceptionalism trade, have been disproportionately impacted here by simply positioning or repositioning,
if you will. I still think that AI is the number one theme in the market. I still think that on a
risk reward basis, some of the best names exist there in the Microsofts and metas of the world
for certain. Pretty happy to see the CapEx budgets for the most part confirmed. I know that rate of
change, if you listen to Dan Niles and so on, is going down.
But, you know, look, we're going into the second half of the year.
And this is the other trade that I've been focusing on that I think the market is going to start focusing more on sort of, you know, the Wayne Gretzky skate to where you think the puck is going to be, if you will, is the bank trade.
And, you know, you can pick your favorite levered ETF or your favorite money center bank.
But, you know, even looking at these regionals,
I think it makes a lot of sense
because they are going to do what they can do
to pump the economy through,
obviously, the big, beautiful bill and the tax cuts.
But, you know, one of the other things
that's actually easier for them to do
is on bank regulation.
And look, you know, one of the other things that's actually easier for them to do is on bank regulation. And look, small businesses, especially, you know, those guys that are dealing with a lot of these regional banks, they need additional capital here up front for input costs as a result of the tariffs.
So, you know, as long as credit isn't an issue, it could be a very, very buoyant time for those regional banks, right up the scale, of course, to the money setter banks.
So that's a trade that I'm focused on.
And I'm sure there's more.
But, yeah, I really just try and play catch up from yesterday.
Thanks for having me.
Yeah, glad you're feeling better, Godfather.
Good to hear your voice again.
Missed you out on that small cap show yesterday. ThredUp with their earnings kind of pointed to the fact that, hey, with Shein and Timu sort of falling away in terms of, you know, the de minimis exemption and the fact that they're not advertising as much on Instagram and these other socials as well.
For companies that are doing, you know, secondhand clothing and so on, which was competing with that really fast fashion.
There's a nice tailwind for them. Of course, apparel prices across the board going higher as a result of tariffs. So they blew away their numbers and indicated a nice picture going forward.
Their competitor, The RealReal, reports here on Thursday after the market. And if you look at it on a relative value basis,
which is the way I operate,
it's a slightly different business model
because they're more upscale,
but you can get to double digit numbers
or certainly numbers close to where this thing was trading
back in the January, February timeframe.
It's a robust business model with nice growth
and it's inflected to cashflow positive.
So I think there's an opportunity in real, real on a sympathy trade basis.
So that's another thing we've been focusing on. I'll leave it there.
Appreciate you sharing all that Godfiler.
I'm going to keep it moving around the panel here a little bit. Uh, Gary,
let's go over to you next and see what's on your mind today.
Hey, my boner pill, uh pill trade from yesterday worked out pretty damn well
with, I think HIMSS is up 20% last time I looked at it. I thought you were a blue chew guy. I
didn't, I wasn't sure. You know, I got the blue check mark. I needed a blue pill. So I got the
HIMSS stuff. I mean, it made sense for me. It was just, Hey, HIMSS has the GLP one stuff. I think
like Godfather, it's an AI market, but I also think it's a GLP-1 market.
I think with Lilly coming up and then with HIMSS, with their partnership with Novo, I think all of that led to really good news.
It was fantastic earnings. And then you saw the actual stock go down. I didn't get it under 40. I think I purchased
it around $41, somewhere in that neighborhood. And I purchased it before earnings. So I'm looking
at that play, probably getting out of that one as a short one. I like what Trump and those guys are
saying about, I thought it was funny. They, you know, there was
a back and forth last week about is China lying that there's no talks or is Trump lying that there
are talks? And we find out today there are no talks. So I find it interesting. I think they
are talking up the market. I, in my mind, I don't think that we get back to all time highs. We've
talked about that throughout this, these spaces and these power hours. I don't think we get back to all-time highs. We've talked about that throughout these spaces and these power hours. I don't think we get back to all-time highs, but I think you can't afford to be out
of this market. You've got to make sure that you're in this market. And I brought it up yesterday. I
brought QQQ while it was down. Do I think that we're going lower? I don't know, maybe, but I just
want to buy it so that a year from now when it's higher, maybe I sell it for long-term capital gain.
So I'm the guy that is the long-term on here.
I'm not trading for a living.
I am completely retired.
And I just kind of, hey, I see an opportunity.
I take it.
And I think today you're seeing some opportunities.
And I thought HIMSS wasn't just an A-plus setup.
So I know I've made fun of people with the boner pill stuff, but I completely got into it.
I still think it's a short squeeze, and I think you see it a little higher, but I've got my stop loss at 50, taking I think a 20% gain off of that one.
But that's all I've got.
Well, more than four hours.
Make sure you see a doctor there gary but appreciate your comments
uh let's keep moving around uh ariel great to have you on the space today haven't heard from
you in a few days but uh what thoughts do you have around this market what's going on what are
you trading what are you investing in changing up uh what's going on in in your world yeah well you
know i actually think things have been fairly
constructive. Over the last two weeks, you know, I've been able to find myself into, you know,
a Netflix just the day after earnings. And then that kind of snowballed me into getting Palantir
just under 100 bucks. And then, you know, behind a little bit of traction got me into Uber into
CrowdStrike. And then recently,
I just bought Baba trying to come out of that little tight five-day consolidation. And then,
of course, I kind of got a little bit lucky into the gap up. And then today, it's now getting over
the 50-day. So there is some traction to be had in the market, right? Even something like HIMSS
after earning small little check back into that breakout $38 level effectively.
So really just kind of from that perspective, I think things are acting really well. There are
groups that are still continuing to hold in there. If we're thinking about powering the AI
data center theme, when you've got names like GEV and CEG. CEG looked a little bit
nasty this morning on earnings, but then got completely bought back up. VST is coming back
to life. And then obviously some of these data centers, they are powered by NatGas and you've
got names like EQT, you've got CRK, you've even got TPL, names like LB, WMB, I mean, some pretty big
bases in that energy sector. So I'm not trying to be negative on the market, right? It's like,
obviously, we've got some, most of the earnings out of the way, at least the big ones,
until we, you know, we get to NVIDIA. But, you know, But for the growth year side of things,
we had Dash today and it bounced,
gapped down, bounced off to 50.
We still have Spotify that recently reported
and we'll see if that can get going through all time highs.
And then upcoming here,
we've got names like Shopify,
Toast, TMDX,
so some Okta.
So it will just be interesting to see, you know, how these younger kind of mid-cap growthy names are acting for their respective earnings reports.
But I haven't seen anything that is super alarming in terms of, you know, nasty earnings gap downs and just staying heavy. Obviously, Palantir is an exception,
but it had been on a really, really nice trend for the past few days and it's effectively still
above. It's ascending 20 days. So before everybody gets crazy negative on a stock because of one
down day, I don't necessarily want to do that obviously the market's still living below its
200 day but I think the important part for people to you know kind of get some solace from is that
there is traction to be had as long as you're not just diving into the market you know just
everything all at once you know you're kind of building your portfolio name by name by name you
know a couple names at a time and behind some traction.
And if you can't gain traction on one and you can't gain traction on two,
there's no sense in thinking you're going to gain traction on your entire portfolio.
So, you know, just kind of, at least from my perspective, operating, you know, kind of with that mentality, it will be interesting to see what AMD does for earnings today. You know,
I think they'll tell us a little bit more
about CapEx from some of these hyperscalers and how much money is really going into these semis.
I think that that would be awesome to see. Obviously, HIMSS was already talked about
super awesome action, at least in these names. And then, you know, I also heard you mention Oklo and NNE and SMR. Now,
maybe not my favorite names, but, you know, when you talk about nuclear, you know, CCJ is trying
to potentially get back above its 200-day moving average. That's, you know, a big uranium producer.
And then CEG, you know, other utility company that effectively delivers power using nuclear renewable energy.
So there are a lot of positives in the market, like I said, and mostly because there is traction
to be had. And if the market begins to roll over, right, you'll be getting stocks that look like
they're breaking out and then completely fail. And that's not what we're seeing right now.
And the nice part is, is, you know, it's being done really with, you know, on just maybe the back of Microsoft, a little bit of meta and everything else in terms of large caps.
Right. It's like Google's hardly above its 50 day. NVIDIA is struggling right around its 50 day. No real big power, no, no massive power from Tesla still living below its 200. So other stocks are working,
which I think is really good. And even other sectors like tobacco names are still working,
right? PM, MO, BTI, they're at highs. Gold is trending back up a little bit here.
Bitcoin itself and MSTR continues to hang in there pretty well. So
just looking around the market, aerospace and defense is another one. Your LOARs, your HWM,
I believe it is, your DRS, your MRCY. What's the other one? KTOS. These names as a group are just
acting well. And if you just take things group you know, group by group by group, and you say to yourself, what groups are acting well, it's like, you know, nobody really likes
tobacco names, but they've been a top 10 group for a while and they continue to trend higher,
right? Gold names has been a top 10 group for a while and continues to work higher. So it's nice
to kind of see these things going on around the market. And if you just, you know, and for myself,
just continue to put some emphasis on stocks within the top 30, 40 groups, look for clean
technical setups, slowly get myself into the market behind traction. There's been traction
to be had. So really nice from my perspective in the market. And, you know, if the market has
bottomed, which I don't believe we're going to break the recent lows in the market from April.
So, you know, maybe we, you know, pull back.
It can get nasty for a few days, whatever.
But I don't necessarily believe we're going back to those lows.
Then, you know, it's just a matter of this point of just, you know, slowly working the whole portfolio back into the market, into stocks that you believe could be leaders.
Right. And that could be leaders, right?
And that could be obviously names like Netflix, CrowdStrike, these cybersecurity names like Zscaler,
Okta, acting really well. Uber feels like a leader. Maybe Spotify can get going.
So there's a lot of positives out there without getting overly negative on the market. And if
the market starts to turn back down, maybe picking on a few of the names that just refuse to get above their 200,
you know, names that rejecting their 50 days, stuff like that. So yeah, I'm going to continue
to be, you know, positive and take it kind of, you know, one day, one setup at a time. And if we
can get all the money working for us safely into the market, I think, you know, that's,
that's a good thing. And, and, you know, if you buy a position, at least for myself, I expect some traction on it,
you know, trying to time out my buys from a clean technical setup and, you know, time it with a
market that's pushing higher. So, you know, get a little bit of traction on it by day's end,
and then that allows you to hold it overnight safely. And then, you know, you move on to the
next position and you build your portfolio in the names acting best in stocks and leading groups.
So it's kind of my thinking here.
And we're seeing some of that.
So I guess just, you know, keep a positive outlook and see where stocks take us from here.
Great perspective there, Ariel. Appreciate you jumping in. And if anybody says anything during this conversation that just sparked some interest in something you're looking at, feel free to jump in or throw up a hand either way. And we'll have some open dialogue as well. Let's keep moving around, panel Wolfie. Let's go over to you next and then we'll hit logical.
Great perspective there, Ariel.
Appreciate you jumping in.
Yeah, sure. So, you know, even though HIMSS is at 50, give or take, it did need, it did have some ED in the morning, right? So I'm going to go with the Gary's theme here. So if you played earnings outside of just owning the shares, you really got smoked on the open, I think they were down like 90% across the board, short midterm.
the open i think they were down like 90 across the board um short midterm and then you know even
despite the stock getting to like 45 46 it didn't really make you any money and i think when i
checked it in the middle of the day stock was trading 46 dollars you know weekly strikes from
i think 42 to 50 all down um at that point so that that kind of like speaks to, you know, what we were saying yesterday
about how, you know, it's not necessarily the move that's going to come. Like if you
have a bankroll and you're willing to bet shares, take this conversation and throw it
out the window. But if you're playing options, it's not just does the stock win, does the
stock go up? It's on a relative basis, right? So you have to really be cognizant of that. I just kind of wanted to say that because today was a good example of stock, you know, opens down, goes up. I think it was 9% at the time when I checked and options, the chain pretty much across the board, 42 to 50 was down. But yeah, outside of that, I own him, so I'm happy with that.
For me, like I said, I'm looking at – this is going to be a broken record, bro.
I'm looking at asymmetric and then idiosyncratic type of things.
I look for some boring things that people don't want to trade or
value names there were the the tobacco names were mentioned the vape names were mentioned so i like
call them now but those were mentioned previously there's some other things that that kind of fit
that category and then on the other side i look for like the momentum of the day we whatever right
so um you guys touched on? So you guys touched on,
very briefly, you guys touched on, I think it was Ariel touched on some of the nuclear names.
Those got a bump today, middle of the day with a headline from the Trump administration.
There was like a renewed chatter about what the committing capital to that type of energy.
And so some of those names are now pressing above major levels.
I think as I speak, CCJ was making highs a day.
I know Oclo was pressing to the high day when he mentioned it.
So I wanted to touch on that.
So on the back of that, I took a quick trade, made some money on there. But outside of that, just paying attention to some of these
earnings names. I own Tempest. Kind of want to see if it was beloved early in the year. Now no one
really talks about it. Kind of want to see if the story is still intact. I think it's like a
multi-year thing if it is. Uber is going to report that's primarily been driven the last month on the back of this autonomous thing.
Um, and the robo taxi thing, I think that's going to be a pretty good, um, barometer for how the stock performs.
Like whatever they have to say around that this morning, you had a DoorDash sell off.
And I think that the brief momentary sell in Uber this morning was on the back of that.
But I don't think that that's the story at all.
There's also a derivative place of Uber.
So like another like an example of one of these idiosyncratic things is Pony AI.
Like it's it's really small company.
It's one of like the biggest winners on the day.
It's up on the back of RoboTaxi Services.
Talked about, you know, a RoboTaxi service in conjunction with Uber.
So those are the kinds of like, when I say idiosyncratic, I want to kind of put stuff to it.
Those are the kind of things that I look for.
Like smaller names, potentially special situation names, potentially names that are driven by catalysts that have nothing to do with tariffs or, you know, headline risk day to day stuff or like a completely new secular thing. It got swept up in the tariff stuff, but they're primarily a GLP delivery system at this point, or a new medicine delivery system at this point.
And so they've been the benefit of those things.
Some of the bigger names that, again, it's pretty funny how cyclical the attention span on some of these names is. So Disney, if you went back a few years, was like,
you know, you couldn't go in earnings calendar without people wanting to talk about it.
Disney reports, I want to see if there's any sort of visibility on some of their strategic changes
that they've made. If there's any sort of insight on how much Netflix is eating everyone's lunch,
right? So if, you know, more and more companies start to abandon how expensive it is to actually create new content in this buckshot system that Netflix was able to do the last decade with a Zirp policy, I think it's going to give us a little bit of a read through on that. I also want to see if there's any read through on some of the international film tariff thing that was floated over the weekend from Disney. So I want to see
that from Disney. And then you guys mentioned like Shopify. Shopify, I think is a good read
on small, mid businesses and consumer health on web traffic. They usually provide some sort of insights there.
I want to see if there's anything that they can say that could be damning. If it is, I think you
could see a read through. Someone mentioned earlier, they haven't seen any real bad earnings.
I want to point you to block XYZ. the reason I bring that up is because I want to
make sure that it's a block thing and not like an internet retailer thing across the
board. And then you guys mentioned Toast. Someone mentioned Toast has a report as well.
So I want to pay attention to that as well. AMD, I think is like a, I mentioned it on
your earning space earlier, is not not to me, it's not really
like a tell on the overall health of the, of the AI market. I think they're second class to,
to Nvidia. So if it's me and I want to play that, I just buy Nvidia, right? AMD says something
positive about AI. It's probably going to benefit Nvidia. I don't think they're going to eat
Nvidia's lunch. There is this like carved out niche that people were talking about in the back of the deep
seek thing, where people could have their own personal compute, personal AI stuff.
And there's a quote unquote computer renaissance.
So there is that they could try to carve out, but I don't think that they're going to
lead the industry like
people expected them to early on, right?
People thought that it's a race between them and NVIDIA, and it's both.
And in the end, the next NVIDIA was always NVIDIA, right?
So outside of that, I just, I'm going to go back to the previous thing I said about boring businesses
and like things that fly under the radar. back to the previous thing I said about boring businesses and,
and like things that fly under the radar.
And I'm saying this,
no pun intended here.
Take a look at Airlease,
It's got pretty much a seven or eight year base.
It's a stock I own.
So I'm talking about book,
but they have good earnings yesterday.
They've been,
you know, Stock Talk's been on here talking about Embraer and it's a stock that he owns and he loves or whatever.
Part of the performance for Embraer is this constraint in the overall like manufacturing delivery of new planes. And they've been benefit of being able to to not have that issue.
Air lease has been a beneficiary of this right so because there's been like a supply constraint um with new jets
and and more jets out there they've been they've been the beneficiary of being able to lease
more of these uh fleets that they have and and rep them. So I'm bringing this to the attention not
to say, hey, go chase this. I'm just giving an example of when I say things that could have
tailwinds that aren't really spoken about in mass or under the radar or idiosyncratic stuff.
Like these are some of the examples I gave. And the reason I'm bringing this one up in particular is if this continues for the next, call it three, four, five, six quarters, whatever the
case may be, this is a seven year base. And you know, the big, there's a, there's an adage and
technicals, bigger the base, bigger the space, right? So if you, if you get this mat, if you
get this breakout, it's a pretty massive breakout. I don't think it's going to happen anytime soon,
like in the next couple of days, but if you were to get a breakout of a seven-year base, that's where some of these momentum themes can actually continue.
I think, in part, this constraint has been a positive or part of the reason that Boeing kept getting a bid this year as people like look
out past all their troubles from the past and be like hey this is a real thing that needs to be
solved moving forward so I just wanted to like highlight that because if we if we look back and
like call it three four quarters and this thing's up 35 percent people are talking about it like
oh my god what happened here's here's here happened, right? So we're talking about it now before it
happens. Outside of that, I'm just looking from a day-to-day basis. I don't want to get caught up
too much on the price action on my screen. I don't want to think, oh, things are red today,
so it's horrible. Things are green today, so it's great. I still believe that we have some
sort of structural issues that are going to get to the forefront in the back half of the year.
I think we have the Fed tomorrow.
I don't think he's going to do anything to rock the boat.
I think to me, it's more about the language for Powell tomorrow and the language of the Fed.
And then like how, quote unquote, hawkish they want to be and how much he wants to sink his teeth into his own legacy and like vocalize, you know, I'm not going to let anybody push me around. Last time,
I think he was a little bit, not in the Fed speech per se, but the interview like a week later or
a few days later after that, he was very adamant to be like, hey, I'm not going to do anything
to be like, hey, I'm not going to do anything that I don't think is going to be a part of our dual mandate.
I think if that were to happen tomorrow and he's like adamant about it,
and then we get like some sort of, you know, tariff shock risk,
I think Trump's going to eventually battle him potentially.
So I just want to be cognizant of that.
I don't think anything's going to, I don't think they're going to raise tomorrow.
They're going to lower tomorrow.
I think they're just going to kind of stay the course, but I want to see the language
around it.
Do they have any read through on the economic stuff?
Any read through on the employment stuff?
Are they worried about anything that I'm not expecting?
Yada, yada, yada.
So I know I've rambled a little bit.
I'll stop there.
If you have any questions, I'll answer.
Appreciate that. We'll figure it here in all of your thoughts.
Logical. Let's go over to your your realm next and see what's going on.
So your tweet earlier bio got cute.
Was was the Trump pharma comments yesterday at the kind at the end of the space that we were on yesterday, was that any of this? I saw your tweet about bios getting just wrecked today.
Yeah, no, it has nothing to do with Pharma tariffs. Pharma tariffs are the literal,
they don't matter at all. These businesses run 90% gross margins, having a 20% tariff on 10% COGS.
It's not a big deal.
Today, BIOS got absolutely destroyed because they appointed this new guy.
What's the name? He's an idiot.
the name. He's an idiot.
One second. Let me find the guy's
One second. Let me find the guy's name.
name.
Either way,
this guy who is basically like an
anti-vaxxer,
which is great for stifling
innovation in medicine
to be honest, because when you take that kind
of stance, he's basically the kind of
guy that opposes
a lot of
rare disease drugs and those kinds of things, and that's why a lot of rare disease drugs and those kinds of things.
And that's why a lot of these stocks are basically getting killed today.
So, yeah, I mean, there was already issues about a month ago
when the FDA commissioner was ousted.
And, you know, they brought the new guy in and everyone was very concerned.
It was, you know, deep sell-off in XBI.
And then that guy did an interview and basically said,
no, like, we're going to approve more drugs, not less drugs.
And then today they basically just appointed this guy to the top of the CBR, which is the Center for Biologics Evaluation Research.
So it's a department within the FDA.
And yeah, this guy is basically anti a lot of things in the industry.
So the market is not taking it very good. A lot of clinical bios
are down, you know, like 30% today, which is crazy. So very bad day for my portfolio,
to be honest. Man, this is, it's a tough industry to be invested in, to be honest,
when, you know, this is kind of like, this can just happen.
I'm kind of speechless at this point.
I mean, I'm sticking to a lot of my names.
I had to cut some, add it to some others. And I'm just kind of staying patient.
To be fair, a lot of these names were up like 50 to 150% in the last couple weeks.
So it's just a little bit of a give back.
But man, when you can just kind of turn the industry upside down in a single day, single
appointment, et appointment, etc.
Yeah, it's pretty discouraging, to be honest.
So that's all I have for today.
So you said there was somebody new.
I'll look into that a little bit.
I'm just curious.
So somebody new was appointed in that realm?
Yes, B'nai Prasad.
He was an epidemiology professor at USC, San Francisco. So he's aligned with
with RFK Jr., right? So and he replaces Peter Marks. And Peter Marks was, you know, very much
science focused guy. And, you know, the concern is that this guy, of course, aligns with RFK.
And Martin McRae, again, he was appointed to run all of the FDA, you know, as logical is pointing
out, you know, same kind of concerns there, but, you know, he actually allayed those concerns and
said, no, you know, we are focused on the science, but we're focused on streamlining certain things
and, you know, actually expediting approvals for things like rare pediatric and, you know,
various other indications. So I suspect that, you know, it's usually a shoot first and ask questions later type environment.
It's probably a viable sell-off, you know, on this guy's headline hire as well.
That's just my take.
Appreciate that additional color there,father uh monotov let's go over and get any thoughts
that you have around this market today ahead of the earrings or anything that you're watching
about 20 minutes here until the close a lot of people have spoken about the market and i've
spoken about you know my thoughts on you know on that i don market and I've spoken about, you know, my thoughts on, you know, on that.
I don't want to, you know, repeat and, you know, sound like I'm the only negative guy around.
So I will not do that.
But on the market, I mean, nobody has talked today, at least on this call about Asterra and Arista.
So those are two bellwethers for AI spend and data center build out cadence.
So Estera Labs, of course, makes retimers that you need to, you know, along with Credo, also TI and Marvell made that.
But they were at least the thought leader among, you know, the retimers along with Credo.
So we'll look out for that.
And then Arista, of course, you know,
data networking, edge network leader,
those should give a good view also
into the health of data center build outs,
new data center build outs.
So they'll be looking at those.
AMD, enough has been said, so I won't repeat that.
Taking a little bit off from what Wolf said,
Aircap, which is the leader in aircraft leasing worldwide.
So their earnings was actually very, very good.
Same reason.
So I won't go rehash into that.
But interestingly enough,
Air Lease has a lot of catching up.
So if they have turned it around,
I've not seen their earnings yet.
But since you told me,
I'm going to go take a look.
There might be a big catch up trade where Air Lease closes the gap.
They used to
trade in lockstep for oh i don't know better part of 15 years or whatever um years many many many
years and uh air cap just took off two years ago so if there's a catch-up trade there that would
be very um it's it's a simple nice trade but on that same vein, there is also MRO.
I've talked about this many, many times here.
The maintenance repair overhaul industry will also benefit from any shortages,
any disruptions from the trade war because there will be increased need for maintenance
if you have new aircraft being delayed.
So that's another industry uh you know
which might get another leg up if um if the if the economy doesn't go to hell so i mean they are
tied to you know uh travel strength so if planes are not used as much, then obviously you don't need as much maintenance.
So that is the risk, of course.
But if we don't get to that point, and if the economy doesn't go deep into a recession and travel doesn't come to a halt, then MRO industry can do very well.
So that's another place to look know to to look for out performance if if things hold um
other than that enough has been said so i don't want to rehash so i'll just wait for earnings
so so i think i want to real quick i think he just he just like mentioned something
mentioned something like as a, as a, like a flyby that is,
is like exactly kind of how you have to frame some of the thought.
If tariffs are going to be an issue,
if protectionism is going to be an issue,
if we're going to reorganize global trade,
then things that are already in,
in things are already out there, like machinery, planes, trains, whatever,
will be used for longer, right, as we figure out the rest of it.
And if there's any picks and troubles, whether it be secondary parts for cars, for example, whether it be,
you know, maintenance, whether it be repair stuff, whatever the case may be, whatever the
industry, whatever, whatever, if those are your picks and shovels plays for some of some of these
things that will last longer, right? So I just wanted to touch on that very quickly because that was like a fly under the radar comment
that he made,
but that's kind of how you have to repurpose
some of your thought around some of this tariff stuff
if it does stay up or if it takes longer
or if you have some kind of recession
on the back of it, whatever the case may be.
So I just wanted to say that.
All right, about 15 minutes until we get some of these earnings reports
and the final bell.
We have continued to track up a little bit here.
NVIDIA making a new high of day.
Stock Talk is getting rugged
about three different times. I need a good stock talk rant
it's been about 24 market hours since uh i last heard it get oh there we go what's up stock talk
do you think it's been a while since i've been on the spaces in stock leo up from doggy daycare so
just give me a couple minutes okay oh was he is he in trouble or something that we didn't hear the dog
yeah i need a good stock talk rant at some point today we'll see if we can get that on the second hour uh stock cyber we got a little bit of time here um i don't know if you had any thoughts that
you wanted to give on some of the uh earnings from yesterday i know that those are a couple of
things that you've talked about and then of course if you have any uh stats or data going into today's reports
and i need you to do a mic check the one time he didn't say mic check
well to be fair you don't know if he did touche touche
we'll try to get him right back up here
Evan
need your biggest takeaway from Omaha
other than Buffett stepping down
at the end of the year
I think that definitely was
so for anyone who doesn't know
I went to Omaha Nebraska this past weekend
to the Warren Buffett Berkshire Hathaway
annual shareholder
meeting got to uh stock sniper you want to give a quick uh night check yeah can you hear me yeah
we got you i'm gonna talk through the buffett thing i'll come right over to you um yeah so i
got to go and see buffett speak this weekend in person you guys were seeing my videos and stuff
about it was pretty cool uh obviously the headline of the of the whole thing was him talking about
uh he kind of stepping back from the role of ceo he's still going to, the headline of the whole thing was him talking about
stepping back from the role of CEO. He's still going to be chairman of the board.
Bursher Hathaway showed some weakness on Monday. Apple showed some weakness as well.
It's hard to have any other takeaways around that one. A lot of talk around US exceptionalism. He's still a big believer in the US. He said he doesn't like the tariffs, but still a believer in the
United States. That was a big one. Talking being a fan of the real estate, not being a
fan of the real estate market compared to stocks in general. And I don't know, it's just got a lot
of stuff. Yeah, you know, and you've heard over the time. I don't know if we had too many comments.
I did hear a little bit at the start, he felt a little bit more timid than in the past, which I
mean, also with 94 years old. So how many coca-colas did he drink
i don't i didn't see that too too many like honestly um it was tough oh truthfully also
seven hours so you probably you probably slipped in a lot of them i wasn't there was that was that
your first time yeah first and maybe only yes that's a wolfie Evan strikes again yeah it's crazy
like how accurate this is
no one said that yet Wolfie
but I was kind of like listen if I don't go this year
am I ever going to get to go fuck it
so I went and turns out
it might have been the last one
it sounds like he might be at the one next year
still chairman of the board
want to kind of ease of a transition
so my guess is there still might be one more,
but we'll see.
Last one is him as CEO.
Universe 7, though.
We'll see.
I'll let you guys know in the next one.
I mean, we've been talking a lot about Starfighters
and I was going to buy in,
but maybe I don't for the rest of you guys.
Oh, good point.
Great.
Good lookout right there.
I mean, you went to the Knicks game
and they blew that game and they uh
they blew that game and then they uh have won uh you want to hear something funny as well
i was when i was flying yesterday and i won't go too long in this i apologize i know we're
getting close to earnings i was flying i was watching the next game that was when they were
down by 20 and then i turned it off and then they won so i yeah i don't know interesting you know
that's actually that's actually an easy way to live though because you could just turn it off and be like yeah what i want to happen is gonna happen
i'm not no it was great i was like i was i was like all right this is over and then i look back
later and we're we're up by three i'm like whoa okay i see a bunch of people tweeting jalen brunson
i was like okay good job three there were no decisions on tariffs made, Canada's new prime minister said.
Yeah, he's speaking right now.
A lot of headlines coming from Canada's carny.
He said this is the point at which serious discussions begin.
Feel better about relations in many respects.
All right, StocksFiber, try number number two or number three or whatever we're on.
I think this is two. Do you hear me?
Yes.
Okay, awesome.
Yeah, so I'll go into HIMSS a little after all the earnings come out today because we have a little bit less time.
But, you know, very, very satisfied with that report. And there's definitely some things that I want to touch on. But for today, we got another pretty exciting day of earnings. The one thing that I want to say is the highest implied
move for everything that we're looking at today is Tempest AI. I'm sorry, it's not Tempest AI,
it's Upstart. With Upstart, we're looking at a 17.37% move or $8.71. I imagine that this implied move is going higher and higher because of the last three reports.
We could see a plus 31.82% reaction last quarter, plus 46%, plus 39.5%, and minus 5.56%.
Since the last report, Upstart's down 25.5%, coming into this with 320,008 open interest.
This is exceptionally high for Upstart.
A lot of people are anticipating this one. As far as the high anticipation ones go, Tempest AI, we're seeing an applied move of $5.54
or 10.71%. They have seen three reports so far, so we do not have a fourth report to go off of,
but we see a minus 15.05%, a plus 29.90%, and a minus 4.5%. Since the last report, Tempest AI is down 25.5%,
coming into this earnings report with $259,135 open interest. And now for one that I know a lot
of people are here to see, and again, a lot of shareholders are already saying throughout the
day that they're not the most concerned about this report, is Rivian. With our Rivian earnings, our implied
move is only at $1.25 or 9.39%. In our previous reactions, we haven't really seen anything crazy
from Rivian in the last year. We see a minus 4.7% plus 5.37%, a minus 6.86% and a plus 0.2%.
And since the last report, Rivian is pretty much in the same exact spot as it was before,
And since the last report, Rivian is pretty much in the same exact spot as it was before,
down 1.87%, coming into this earnings report with 2,453,319 open interest.
Now, the one that I personally am going to be watching the hardest and the one that I'm most
interested in is AMD earnings. With our AMD earnings, we have a pretty big move. We're
expecting a $7.10 move or 7.16%. When we look at our previous
reactions for AMD, it's not so bright. We see a minus 6.27%, a minus 10.62%, plus 4.36% and minus
8.91%. Since the last report, AMD is down 17%. Coming into this earnings report, 3,704,044 open
interest, which is pretty high for amd now
the first time at least um smci is reporting earnings this quarter um we can see smci has
an implied move of three dollars and ten cents or nine point forty seven percent previous reactions
are not too great as well uh plus two point seventy seven percent last quarter minus eighteen
point zero five percent minus twenty point14% minus 14.03%. And since the last report, SMCI is down 15.14%. And they are
coming into this earnings report with 2,535,858 open interest. As far as SMCI goes, it seems like
there's always a lot of people that are willing to gamble on this or a lot of people that are
looking to take short-term trades on this. I am an absolute hater of the company. I'm not really too worried about this
report. But if anybody wanted to hear any of these numbers or see any of these again, I have them all
posted and also have all these numbers posted for some of the other names, you know, like Estera
Labs, Estera Network, Lucid, etc. The full earnings schedule is also in the comments on the spaces,
and that's pretty much everything that I think we're looking at for today.
Man, do you guys remember Astara Labs last quarter?
I really hope that doesn't happen again.
Where it popped and faded?
Yes.
We're much cheaper than where we were before though i have you know
i'm gonna i'm gonna tell you why i remember it it's because i was fading it no it's because i
was fading it and uh and i was like oh shit i'm not gonna say that because they're all bullish
but now it's been three months i could shit now that it's been three months i feel like i could
say it and i don't have a position right now.
That's fine.
Did it have like a 25% range or something that day?
Like it went all the way up and then all the way down,
and then it closed the middle?
Like 12% and then reversed immediately.
Well, that was handed.
That was like the beginning of the fall, so –
or near the beginning of the fall.
It was the beginning of the end.
That was the beginning of the end. It was the beginning of the end. It was the beginning of the end.
It was the best of times.
It was the worst of times.
I do that Simpsons episode
where Mr. Burns goes into
the cellar with the monkeys typing on the keyboard
and then one of them
writes a book. Sorry, I'm just
writes a book. Sorry, I'm just a huge
a huge Simpsons fan.
Simpsons fan.
I bet.
I didn't know you believed in
astrology.
Dude, have you not seen the moon phases chart?
I mean, the Simpsons is the best
astrological tell there is. They predict
the future all the time. Oh, they
predicted everything. That's actually it's actually very funny.
Are you referring to the episode where, um, those aliens?
Yes.
Yeah.
Whatever one you're going to say, I'm going to say.
Oh my goodness. That was like on it right there. That was crazy.
But I think, um, I think,
because you remember how South Park, like, with the Obama running against – was it John McCain?
Was it that one?
I forget which one it was.
But it was that big election.
And then – I mean, South Park, like, they just create two different episodes.
And then that way, whoever wins, they just release that episode.
Like, it's just – they can probably generate that entire episode in like five minutes through automation yeah but simpson's called trump coming down the escalator like 10
years ahead of time yeah that's that's pretty ballsy good man groaning
oh hey stock market my bad
well i mean we don't have enough time to fit in a stock talk rant before the earnings come out so Oh, hey, stock market, my bad.
Well, I mean, we don't have enough time to fit in a Stock Talk rant before the earnings come out, so.
No, no, no, no, dude.
We can always find time.
We may have to do two.
Maybe part one, part two.
You know, gold's running pretty aggressively ahead of this Fed meeting. And I'm just curious to see if that's, you know, just precautionary or if that's telling of any kind.
I think it's definitely telling.
I don't, the gold market, $22 trillion market, I don't think those guys are wrong.
Well, no, and you're also seeing like, I mean, there's a a lot of forces a lot of things going on with gold but i just from being a future trader i notice this every night around like 9
p.m eastern when asia gets open you see gold just spike like crazy it happened again it's
happened like five times over the last two weeks i think you mentioned that before yeah you're
right i mean they if you really think about all that stimulus coming from China,
I mean, they're like just little printing money hand over fist.
They're pretty much in the major quantitative eating GFC crisis area.
Their housing market is just so screwed right now.
And when you just think about the amount of money they're pumping,
I would not be surprised if a lot of those people are using it to buy gold
and then using that as collateral to buy other stuff.
They do some really finicky stuff out there, but I would not be surprised.
Plus also that bond market money needs to go somewhere as well.
And the gold and treasuries are usually inversely correlated.
The actual bonds though, not the yields.
We did have that 10-year auction today that went decently well.
We saw a little bit of a reaction.
I noticed TLT was getting a nice little pop.
It's actually at the high of day if you look at your TLT right now.
And the dollar was falling.
It made a new low of day.
It's bounced a little bit the last 45 minutes or so.
But if Kevin comes on later, it would be interesting to hear what his perspective was on that.
But that 10-year auction looked like it went pretty well today.
I actually think.
I'll go ahead.
We're getting close to the market being done here.
A lot of these earnings are coming in like 4, 4.05 p.m.m eastern i pinned up another post uh in the nest above which has the calendar for
the week and you can kind of zoom in on a couple of names that are reporting but yeah we're getting
very close to the market being done here for the day uh and a lot of these earnings will be coming
out in the next five ten minutes or so so definitely keep a lot of these on watch here
less than a minute minute and a half of the market being open again you can go and then obviously once the numbers start to come out it's sometimes it takes a second obviously
we're just seeing the reports and have to compare the estimates and everything takes a second but
we'll be watching i know amp will be on some of the price moves uh and we'll kind of be taking
along but amd the one that i'm honestly most excited for 4 15 p.m eastern is what time that
comes out a lot of the other ones are going to be out before that. So expect most of the other ones.
They'll aim to date towards the end around 4.15 p.m. Eastern.
Market closing less than a minute, though.
I think the market came back mostly because of that bond market auction, in my opinion.
That's certainly pretty important, but obviously not really the case right now.
Yeah, definitely interesting. We are pulling back here a little bit with 20 seconds until the close.
It seems like it was those Mark Carney comments were pretty positive, but maybe it was less of like,
hey, a deal has not been anything decided here.
We sold off hard yesterday. At the end of the day day we sold off hard just the same way as we're
doing right now and market is closed now all right expect a lot of names let's go
i think that learning city alone can completely reverse the market, in my opinion, especially with these Algos.
Here we got AMD, SMCI.
AMD, SMCI, Anet, Rivian, Tempest, and Upstart all come out at 4.05.
It's going to be a very hectic minute.
Lucid as well, Alab, a bunch of other names.
We got Redfin coming out right now at some point, for those who care about that one.
Rockit is acquiring them, so it would be pretty crazy if they made a big move.
They don't tend to.
If they're getting acquired, that means they're not going to have an earnings call.
It means they're going to give no forward guidance.
It's going to be a very bare bones thing.
Generally, nothing moves when a company is getting acquired.
Yeah.
Yeah, they take that liberty to give you less information.
Yep, market is closed.
Let me check the apps,
how we ended up in this thing for the day.
So the S&P 500 was on a nine day winning streak yesterday closed red second red day in a row today down 0.8 fully red closed for the mag 7 best performing magnificent 7 name was apple
great company closing the day down 0.19 worst mag 7 MAG7 name was Meta, down 2%.
I went crazy
early. Oh, Buffett closed the day green.
We just gave
back almost the entire afternoon
right here in the last 15 minutes.
Again, just like yesterday.
Worth noting.
Yeah, as StockSamp was saying, 405 is when a lot of these numbers are coming out so tempest initial move is to the upside i don't i don't see uh the print yet but it's pressing
north of 50 almost 55 now i do see the numbers uh 257 million is what they reported on revenue.
Wall Street wanted $248, so that's a beat.
And then we also had EPS.
I'd have to dig in, so I'll let you guys find it when it gets down there.
If you see anything on
services...
If you see anything on patient records
and services
revenue, those are the two things.
Poorly gross profit
increase, blah, blah, blah, reaching
$155 million.
Revenue from data and services,
$61.9 million.
I don't have expectations.
It's a little light.
Still a double beat, though though from Tempest
What's the stock doing?
Still moving higher?
It's
53.77
That's kind of popping around here
at the Hive Day
Just killing premium
Win resorts with a double miss here.
I heard Vegas is weak.
And Kirk was telling us that firsthand from his experience out there.
I actually,
yeah,
I went to kind of recently went to the shifts for event.
Great events,
great events,
great time.
Las Vegas,
though,
kind of dead
i'm really not a weekend uh
i don't think so well maybe i got there on a sunday that could be it's definitely why maybe
i don't know if it was a weekend actually if it was an investor conference, it wouldn't have been a weekend, right? So.
There you go. Good answer.
Stock Talks, like,
don't you freaking dare talk negatively about Vegas.
No, no, no. I'm not defending Vegas.
I'm just saying, you know, I don't like
anecdotes of any kind to assess. That's fair.
Yeah. I just think it's
not going to announce this.
Not from you, but everyone does this with everything.
You pull up an anecdote like, oh my god, my grandma asked me how to buy stocks.
We must be headed for an apocalypse.
It's just not how it works.
I went to Chipotle yesterday and there's no line.
They must be going out of business.
Yeah, exactly.
I went to a Chipotle.
People still tweet, I went to the mall and all the stores are empty.
Come on, dude.
I went to two Chipotles.
One in San Francisco got a tiny bowl.
One in Florida got a nice, huge bowl.
A lot of burnings coming up.
A sterile ad.
Rivian is up.
Tempest.
Tempest now 57.
Rivian just popped.
Rivian something,
$1 billion investment from the Volkswagen.
They unlocked one of the tranches, I think,
is what that might be moving off of.
I got you.
SMCI is moving down now about a percent.
A net's up.
Rivian, $1.2 billion,
beating expectations of $1.02 billion.
SMCI missed.
I'm seeing a star labs up 11,
Yeah.
Let me know if you see,
let me know if you see Rivian EPS expectations with negative 92 cents.
These Rivian,
I'm sorry,
these are really good for data center or Arrested Network, and ALAB.
Those are pretty important.
And AMD as well.
ALAB is up 3% right now.
I haven't seen a report on it.
I got a Rivian EPS at minus 48 cents versus expectation of minus 92 cents.
Wait, wait.
Say that again.
EPS with 90. Say that again. EPS actual is minus 92 cents. Wait, wait, say that again? EPS was 90, say that again?
EPS actual is minus 48 cents. Expectation is minus 92. That's pretty big data.
And then I'm looking at a Sterilab's report too.
159.4 million on revenue and EPS was 33 cents and expectations nope that's a Rista
SMCI down 4% now taking a load of the beat beat double beat for Acera Labs.
Lucid EPS actual minus 20 cents.
Expectation minus 23 cents.
Revenue actual 235 million.
Expectation 246.16.
Missed on revenue. Beat on EPS.
That's still a company you can always count on you
I love you man
it's hard to go broke when you have Saudi money right
so let's see
Rivian
Arista Network
CPS .65
CPS .6
Sells Miss
Slight Miss
2.00 versus 2.02 estimate on ANET.
But ANET is up 5%, so there's probably some guidance in here.
I'll see if I can find it.
Upstart is smoked.
Upstart down 17%.
I tell this one moves, though, honestly.
That just happens.
I think every time it moves 20%.
Yeah, it does, but it's still down
20%. They probably
wanted it up 20, not down.
MD should be coming out in like seven minutes or so.
Watch out for that one. What's SMCI down
to? SMCI's making new lows.
It's down over 6%, 6.5%.
SMCI had a double miss.
Didn't we already know this, though?
Yeah.
Basically.
you guys mentioned
Estera is pretty
interesting. They're leading off with
saying that their
Ethernet and PCI
scale out for custom ASICS
is very strong in demand.
Whereas the next next line says PCIe connectivity for.
GPU based rack scale systems to scale starting in Q2.
So so which they are already in.
So, you know, they're a month into this.
They should know. Right.
So so, you know, that's that that that shows you where the market was heavily investing.
So, ramp in Blackwell might have been later than expected.
So, I'm not sure this is super bullish NVIDIA.
It's probably not.
So, that ramp might have been a little bit late.
Appreciate you, Monty.
And obviously, I know you're an expert in a lot of these areas,
so I'm always free to jump in, too.
You were saying something, Wolfie?
I was literally going to say pretty much what he just said.
I was asking about it. we talked about uh astara
yeah a lab is an interesting one yeah i should be getting this i'm excited for amd
it is a new product for their blackwell so it could be limited to that, but I have to read more into it. I will try to come back with more
info.
Yeah, let us know.
I think we're already right out there, Rodin.
Yeah, yeah.
Came out a couple minutes ago.
410, should we get a little
another batch of numbers?
EA was a pretty in-line
print, but that sucks up like 9%.
Really? I want to see.
I'm a big video game guy.
Yeah.
I'm a big video game guy, so I'm curious.
They struck a deal with the MLS to show
some MLS
games within one of their mobile games, which I
thought was really interesting.
That's interesting.
But also, I have
as someone who got introduced
to gambling through EA Sports,
you know, there are some child stuff, child gambling stuff there
that probably deserves something to look at.
Let it go, though.
Hey, if Roblox didn't get in trouble, I think they'll be fine.
no exactly
No, exactly.
They're fine.
there's a nice little president
There's a nice little president set there.
SMCI not only is it a double
miss but it's a double guy
down
so yeah
the pre-release is always just
intracourter so yeah if they
provided additional color on the guy
then that's probably
yeah
downside guys for full year 25 sees 21 sees 21 22 20.8 22.6
billion versus 23 points by 5 billion facts that they're just yeah yeah and then q4 EPS of 40 to
50 cents X non-recurring verse 66 cents facts that I'm curious, Moniton, your thoughts,
but my thought process is SMCI might have lost a lot of customers
or maybe slowed down on deals and stuff.
I'm curious with Dell.
They could have lost one major one.
That's right.
Before Moniton jumps in on this, I actually have an opinion on this.
I think this is true with SMCI, with Dell,
with really all the server names.
I think a lot of people didn't really view servers as their own industry prior to the AI trend, even though that's not true.
People think the server business is something that was born with, I should say, onlookers who aren't familiar with the industry think the server business
was born with the LLM business.
And that's not true.
The server business is a very old business.
And servers were used for things other than AI, obviously.
And this AI trend created a huge amount of hype in the server businesses.
We saw what happened with Dell and SMCI and all these server stocks.
And even HPE broke out of a multi-year base at one point during the cycle.
But I think there's just a lot more, I don't want to say certainty, but there's a lot more
visibility into that side of the AI components business. And so it's hard to get ahead of
yourself when you have expectations that are already pretty
bullish in that sector and so it's difficult for companies to create
upside in that scenario and at least I think so where there's a lot of
visibility on how servers are going to be impacted by the growth in AI and now
that we have you know some lease cancellations on the table some
potential tapering and funding the impact that the server business is pretty hard to calculate. So, you know, you have these
companies that are having to not only slash guidance, but potentially, you know, really
disappoint when it comes to the forward growth expectation. So I think the server business in
general is an area I personally want to avoid. I know Monitiv still likes Dell, or I don't know if you like it with these prices,
but I know you mentioned it a couple weeks ago,
so maybe you have a little bit of a different opinion,
but it's not an area that I'm interested in currently.
So, okay, I'll start there since that's how you ended it, right?
So I still like Dell, but remember remember dell has more businesses right they have more uh
you know a far larger volume than almost anybody else there so so very different economics of scale
companies of scale compared to smci so there's no direct comparison at all so i still like dell i
think their storage business is woefully undervalued compared to the, you know, the network appliances of the world.
So, so I think there's a catch up there and there's still, you know,
somewhere, you know, soon enough, there will be a, you know,
PC market refresh and they get most of the benefit of that from a corporate
perspective. So but, But going back, right?
So the cadence of product updates
in the NVIDIA-centric world is so fast now
that a company like SMCI,
it's very difficult and extremely capital intensive
for them to retool for every product line,
every product lifecycle.
So they happened to be in the right place at the right time
and got a lot of customers way outside their wheelhouse.
Their wheelhouse is small to medium-sized enterprises
with highly customized servers in small lots.
Their largest normal business,
you know, a few years ago would have been pre-AI,
would have been a few hundred server lots,
you know, at one time.
So very different business.
I don't think they can compete with the cadence of release
that AMD and NVIDIA are trying to push out now
because just the capital
investment required to retool for every release every time there's a complete refresh is impossible.
AMD earnings yeah pumping right here what do we have quickly looks like revenue was 7.43 billion
being expectations of 7.12 billion and we'll come back to you sorry eps looks like
it was that says 44 cents but that might be non-gap yeah 96 cents 96 cents beating expectations
of 93 cents so double beat there for uh amd up up three percent though five percent
Up 3%, though.
How dare you, I'm talking about it.
They're saying Q2 non-gap gross margins estimated to be 43%,
and that includes the tariff impact.
Not bad.
Well, I guess I'm curious what comparisons were, but yeah.
MD's initial move is higher. let me continue to dig in here wolfie did you did you short a lap i didn't sure i didn't short anything
uh yeah right why is it up no it's down it was up no, I told you I don't have a position so that's why I spoke on it.
I mean, it's fine. I've been
holding it, but
Wolfie.
AMD data center revenue
data center revenue
is $3.7 billion.
Closed the acquisition of GT Systems
during the quarter. AMD
right here.
Client gaming revenue was $2.9 billion, up 28%, but its data center segment during the quarter. AMD right here. The economy
gaming revenue was $2.9 billion,
up 28%, but its data center
segment grew 57% year over year.
Did anyone have expectations
of what AMD was expecting? The stock's up about
6% in after hours right now.
For revenue or for EPS?
Data center revenue.
Hang on.
That's what I'm looking for there.
They also did give that current outlook.
They expected...
Second quarter, expect $7.4 billion.
Yeah.
No, sorry.
Go ahead.
Next quarter revenue, they expect to be $7.4 billion.
What were you going to say about data center?
Do you know what was expected?
What I was going to say, it was the wrong wrong number so i'm going to go back and read it
well yeah let me know on that one if you guys end up seeing it but i am curious there because
i know that's a lot of people are going to end up being watching there's also a lot of stories
out of pakistan and india right now seems like a conflict might have actually just started there's
some of these bloomberg reports but i'm not the expert there at this point in time to be able to say for sure.
Yeah, I probably did.
Just real quick, AMD, excluding the $800 million charge,
Q2 non-gap gross margin would be about 54%.
So they're doing the, which is great.
I like actually C&O's comparable.
So they're providing both comps for us here.
Evan, it wasn't the wrong number.
I just, I suck at reading right now.
It's status center revs were 69% year over year,
3.9 billion was the expectation.
Ooh, so below, okay.
AMD stock still moving higher, up 7% there,
6% in after hours.
Something's meeting with FIFA right now ah those AMD guys they've been holding strong for a long time I'm going to the
World Cup when it's here so I hope some of you guys opening matches right down the road for me
if anyone wants to sponsor it let me know The stock market news goes to the games brought to you by Schwab.
I love it.
I'm continuing to look here, though, at these AMD earnings.
I love about 5.5% here.
I'm for it.
Listen, I can pull some numbers.
What do you guys have for year-over-year for client revenue?
I'll look that up as well.
But real quick, Sarepta's down 45%.
I don't know why, but I wanted to bring that to your attention.
I believe that's SRPT, if I remember the ticker correctly.
Ding.
That's me.
You know, I have some good ticker knowledge.
Well, I will tell you, SRPT is one...
Oh, it was already down 26% today.
Sorry, logical.
What were you going to say?
I was going to say it was down during the day because of that FDA news that I was talking
about with the CBER new appointee.
Because basically, SRPT has a very questionable past about their approval.
And recently, they had a safety event.
And so I guess the old FDA commissioner
had kind of pushed their approval along.
And so people are concerned that with this new appointee,
that he could even potentially
not only like stifle future approvals,
but retract past approvals.
So that's definitely why the stock was down a lot today.
But 27% after hours on earnings.
They also had earnings.
Yeah, that's what I'm saying.
I mean, I've never seen this before.
Minus 27% during the day,
and then minus 27% in the after hours
is probably a one of one.
I've never seen that before.
The, uh, Valiant. Valiant valiant yeah valiant pharmaceuticals would like a word no one cares about those companies
going back to amd so so very strong client segment actually 23 2.3 billion up 68 percent gaming was
the big downer down 30 percent year over here so so client and gaming up to 28 but client alone
2.3 billion ups up almost 70 that's fantastic actually they they beat that by like 300 mil
i believe yeah that's what i'm saying it's fantastic that probably means they're gaining
market share again yep that's what i'm you, AMD, everybody's kind of focusing on data center,
but I don't know, man,
client has been like their bread and butter
when it comes to the technology.
They probably should just rebrand,
I don't wanna say rebrand,
but make a marketing effort to really kind of focus on that
more on the investor side,
rather than trying to get the data center business,
trying to compare themselves.
The Xilinx was probably a terrible idea, right?
So it's down 3%.
Yeah.
Very expensive.
Very expensive and took forever.
I'm curious, actually Stocktalk, we haven't heard too much from you on this one.
Got any thoughts on any more of these earnings
or any other kind of discussions we have?
No, not too many earnings on my plate today
that I'm particularly interested in.
Obviously, I kind of care about hearing about AMD
just because it's an important stock and getting a feel on it.
But no, nothing too much on the plate for me today.
It was an interesting day, though, for my portfolio because even with the market being
red, a lot of our positions were green.
XMTR, which we opened up recently off of Mystic, who's one of our analysts, he's also on Twitter
and is just a really smart guy
but we opened this up uh when was it a week ago let me go find my initial entry here
yeah like a week and a half it should go uh 428 so yeah april 28th we opened it so
not too long ago um at around 25 35 was my average that stock closed at 30 60 today
so it was up 11 today in a red market which i thought was very very telling we're up 20 on
shares now in less than two weeks on this name and it seemed to just go up not only aggressively
but go up every day and not only do they have a good earnings, they raise guidance.
And they're creating a platform to match manufacturers with people in the supply chain.
And that makes them a very particular beneficiary of what's going on with tariffs.
The sort of panic that you're seeing with tariffs,
with companies scrambling to find alternative
supply chains, they fit literally right into that groove where they can take advantage
of companies who need to find new suppliers, potentially domestic suppliers, potentially
nearshored suppliers in places like Brazil or other alternative Southeastern Asian countries
outside of China.
These companies are scrambling to do this.
They need partners to help them with it.
And XMTR is creating arguably the only digital,
synchronized, and seamless platform to do this.
And so I wasn't familiar with the company at all
before Mystic brought it up a few weeks ago,
but we got along on it,
and it's been doing absolutely wonderfully for us.
It was, again, green in a red market today.
Another name is Talent Energy, which I've talked about a lot in the past.
And I've been in and out of this name, I don't know, seven or eight times in the past two years.
It's always been a really, really great trader for us.
We opened this last week.
Logical actually followed me in on this one.
We opened this last week at 214 on the 30th of April, trading 234 today. It was up 6%, again, in a sort of weak
market, and it's going to close around 235 today, 234.70. So that's a nice 10% move for us on that
name as well. We also covered two catalysts this morning, one downside catalyst and one upside catalyst.
We do a daily pre-market call where we touch on all the catalysts that I think are significant.
The two names we touched on today were NBIS and Sweetgreen.
NBIS got a note from Northland, which I thought was a pretty nice note.
I don't love trading Northland stuff, but when it's on a stock that I think is high beta, then they tend to do a pretty good job of moving it. And NBIS is one
of those names, obviously a very popular retail name, popular data center name. We touched on that
this morning. Stock was flat in pre-market, flat for pretty much the first 30, 40 minutes of the
session, and then closed up about five percent so really nice
move to the upside on that and then sweet green which we shared as a downside idea this morning
potential short that name was relatively flat in pre-market down about one percent at the open and
closed down about eight percent so made a really really nice short there as well on sweet green
and that was from jp morgan downgrading, uh, lowering their price target to 25, which was above the current price, but that doesn't matter
because the note was, um, pretty damning. Uh, JP Morgan said they do not see sweet green
as one of the restaurant names that would perform well in an economic slowdown.
They referenced things like their pricing being about 30% more premium compared to other
salad stores, uh, that are out there.
I don't know too many of the brands, but they're comparing them to some of their competitors
in the, I guess, fast salad space and saying that their pricing is just ridiculous.
Kava's better than all of them.
What'd you say?
Kava's better than all of them.
There you go.
From a taste perspective, not a stock perspective.
I figured since you're a New Yorkork guy you might love sweet green that's sort of like a new york thing with
like all the finance guys in new york going to get sweet green but anyway there are so many salad
places in new york city sweet green is one of the more popular ones but there's like five or six
big ones yeah yeah so those are the two girls dig in is the one, in my opinion. Dig In. I'm going with Kava.
There's one called Just Salad or something.
Food & Co. or something.
Salad & Co.
I think Dig In rebranded to Dig.
Sorry, that's it.
It is Just Dig Now.
And if you guys are feeling fat, go check out Sticky's.
Good chicken fingers.
Feel horrible after.
Sorry, Tim Stock Talk.
I'm very passionate about it.
Something called Sticky's, bro.
Dude, it tastes so...
Doesn't it taste like it's going to be really good, though?
It's going to be horrible for you, but it tastes good.
All right, we'll continue.
We got hands up.
I'll shut up.
No, that was pretty much it.
Like I said, a couple of catalyst trades we made that worked well,
and then a couple of our names that held up well.
Obviously, other names in the port were down with the market today,
but some standouts, which I thought was nice.
Wow, actually kind of interesting here.
Barrick Gold's changing its ticker to b and then a new company will be uh barrack mining corporation
ticker b going for those one letter tickers i i like it yeah i think they made uh the
i would think it was like a week ago or two weeks ago there was an announcement because they're
they want to make it more of like a holistic brand and not just
specifically just gold. So I think they're trying to capitalize on that. Hey, real quick, Lucid
actually has some news here. Lucid might start production of midsize vehicle in Saudi Arabia
instead of US given tariff impact. Plan's not final. That's from the interim CEO. And then
Lucid sees overall costs going up by 8% to 15% due to tariffs without considering any mitigation measures.
So that was actually very interesting.
Yeah, that is very interesting.
I want to dig a little bit more into that.
Yeah, Manitab, go.
A couple of quick things, guys.
So one of the listeners here who follows me, I've been chatting with him for a long time, MT, he pointed out that there could be significant pull forward in orders from Dell and HP on the PC side that might have contributed to that outperformance.
outperformance so we have to see but but that's very possible and the indian army is confirming
So we have to see, but that's very possible.
that they have uh that they've hit uh at least one part of pakistan occupied cashmere bawalpur
they've been hitting them with multiple missile attacks so so it it looks like a very limited and very specific strike against possibly
non-militant areas, not a widespread confrontation.
So this is official.
So it's not just conjecture anymore.
They did hit.
I wonder if that's why VIX products are running in the after hour session
i don't think so because that announcement on the smoke is jumping yeah but um uh the initial
announcement or the initial hit happened like an hour ago and we did see a little bit of a pullback
not an aggressive one like this one but that's interesting um closing
um i think trump's speaking right now i mean the official announcement is just now it's after close
so it's it's probably it yeah i read the full article so the pakistani military said earlier
when the explosions first happened which is what kevin's referring to like about an hour ago
they said earlier that they thought it was India. And they came out and
said that they said India has attacked Pakistan with three missile attacks in three separate
locations. Pakistan will retaliate. And then just now Reuters is citing Indian military officials
saying we did not target any Pakistani military targets. We only targeted terrorist infrastructure,
We did not target any Pakistani military targets.
We only targeted terrorist infrastructure.
But artillery fire has begun on the Kashmir border.
Pakistan says Indian aircraft are not and have not entered Pakistani airspace.
So I do think it was a limited strike, but I don't know if the retaliation will be so limited.
So we'll have to see how this unfolds.
But obviously, net net, it's not a good thing for another theater of conflict
to be starting yeah well pakistan international airline says that they are uh halting flights
that are on the ground that they're putting them on hold yeah this is a unique one though because
there's been border clashes but this one's escalating and you have to be mindful too
they're they're both nuclear powers i don't think it will get to that point, right?
But I think that's also something that's very unique with this situation.
I mean, my grandpa used to, during the partition of India,
my grandpa lived on the Pakistan side and he was Hindu,
so he couldn't stay there.
And, you know, since then, India and Pakistan have been fighting
since the partition of India.
And it's been like the longest regional conflict really in modern history.
There have been plenty of spats, 2018, 2019, 2014, 2015.
In the 90s and 80s, there were fights.
People have been killed and some people have not been killed.
And it's pretty much been generally sparked by the Kashmir region.
So, yeah, obviously, if we want to be optimistic here,
we say, hey, this is just another targeted strike.
It's going to, you know, lead to some level of Pakistani retaliation.
And then, you know, it just becomes another boil over in the Kashmir area.
But, you know, you always have to entertain the idea
that something may last longer than we think it will,
or whatever the case may be,
especially considering there's so much geopolitical tension right now globally,
there's so many theaters of war active,
that that makes it concerning.
I mean, a lot of people don't even talk about what's happening in Rwanda and Congo.
That one doesn't get a lot of news coverage.
But, you know, the United States trying to negotiate a peace deal there as well.
I don't know if people saw the story about the mineral rights deal a couple of weeks ago.
So now if the U.S. wants to, I know they want to take a more neutral stance with Pakistan and India,
which is also an interesting dynamic because the United States doesn't want to alienate Pakistan
because they've been a useful pawn, if you will, in the U.S. war against terror.
And at the same time, they don't want to alienate India because there's a huge effort going
on right now by American companies to move production out of China and into India.
So that's not exactly a nation you want to alienate either, not to mention they're a
much more powerful economic force.
So the U.S. is kind of caught between a rock and a hard place on this one.
I don't think you'll see any express U.S. support on either side, which might make it
different from the other conflicts we're seeing um but yeah it's something we'll have to monitor
obviously today was uh the first hot point of this conflict in the last few weeks so so indian army
by the way just quickly indian army says in post on x justices serve after india launches attacks
on sites in pakistan so maybe i misreading that. That sounds like that.
They did say that.
But the real escalation started on Sunday.
Sunday afternoon, actually, India shut off the flow from one dam to two tributaries.
Actually, two dams, sorry.
From tributaries of River Chinab that flows down to Pakistan.
They were also in like a water deal between the two of them.
Yeah, that's just a deal.
They suspended it right after the attacks, but they didn't actually close the water.
But Sunday night, they actually, Sunday afternoon, they actually closed some water.
So that is a problem because that's higher ground, right?
You're going to drain off completely some of the most fertile parts of the world.
So it's a big problem.
So unless this de-escalates quickly, it could get a lot worse.
Right now, it's not.
It's very coordinated, directed, but this is not over by a long stretch.
This is not over by a long stretch. This is messy.
Kevin, I'm just curious if there are more thoughts on this stuff.
Have you also had any thoughts you were coming into this conversation with?
No, I don't have any more thoughts.
Look, I always like to stay in my lane. I know a little bit about this conflict, especially when it comes to the water side of it.
But Stock Talk is right, right?
Like the United States, I would say the United States is a little bit more favorable to India.
But they will also not acknowledge Pakistan having any wrongdoing.
So it does make it very interesting as to the developments on the economic front here.
And hopefully this doesn't, hopefully this does calm down. But, you know, usually when we see
these strikes and somebody says, oh, okay, like we're done. I think we saw the same thing in the
Israel-Iran conflict. I mean, like it doesn't mean that you're done, right? So hopefully cooler heads
prevail. But what Manadib is talking about when it comes to the
water, and not only impacts the fertile land, right, but it also can create a...
Hey, Kevin, it's super hard to hear you. Kevin, it sounds like you're speaking through, like,
multiple layers of, like, weird material. Okay, I'll try to...
It's not perfect for me, but it's not horrible. I hear him okay. Yeah, I hear him okay.
Okay, maybe it's my phone, sorry. No, it's all good.
But it would
turn into a, it can turn into a
bad humanitarian crisis as well.
You know, to add on to what
Monitor was talking about. So, I don't have
anything else from that. Let me,
I'm going to drop down real quick because I
do want to kind of reset my headset
and then I'll come back up and
I'll talk about more more things
you guys could hear him i could hear it like i could sort of understand what he was saying but
it was like i don't know sounded he sounded like he always does it was clear clear on my side a
quick update anets reversed down four percent now didn A-Lab move lower too?
Not to be that guy for you guys, but
that was two reversals on this one.
Rivium's down a little bit now as well.
It was basically break-even.
Now it's down about a percent.
See, Sam got on me about A-Lab.
I should get on him about Tempest.
Where's Tempest at?
Where's Tempest at?
It's sub-50.
It's sub 50.
Or it's at 51 now.
I do want to ask Josh or Kevin, either one,
about the move in the oil market today.
Kind of double bottom down there.
Josh, you requested to come up.
Did you have anything you want to talk about?
Yeah, sure.
Yeah, I mean, there was a big move down yesterday, which was probably overdone.
The market had pretty much, I mean, last week and the last month and a bit had been painful in the oil market for the equities as well as the commodity.
And the market had rebounded, but the oil market did not rebound with broader equities.
It was very weird.
It was one of those things where either tariffs were going to get much worse or oil and oil equities would need to rebound.
And I still think that's the case is just sort of the first step.
So today it just seems like it's making up for a weird move yesterday
that shouldn't have happened.
People got really, really panicky, I think, in the market around
the OPEC news. And I think they just didn't really understand what was going on. And OPEC
didn't actually add much incremental production in their latest announcement. They just sort of
sanctioned existing cheating. And is that good? Is that bad? I don't know. But it isn't like flooding
the market. And then the Saudis, I guess, I think it was yesterday morning. So it was still weird
that the price was down. They raised their price, delivered price for oil to Asia. So that's
normally more of a signal than the OPEC decisions in terms of what they're, how at least Saudi
Arabia is dealing with the market. And they matter because they haven't been cheating and they have
the most potential spare capacity. So that's what happened today. And then I guess there's a little
bit of concern around oil geopolitical risk and various other stuff happening in Yemen and there have been bombings in Iran,
whether it's local sabotage or foreign powers doing it, unclear. But there's a little bit of
geopolitical risk, but that was happening over the weekend. So the price was down yesterday anyway,
because of that, or despite that, and then back up today. So again, I just think it was making up for a weird move
yesterday. There was an article floated, I think, Sunday by Reuters. So there's three
major media publications that had a falling out with OPEC a few years ago for this sort of thing,
where they would publish reports on OPEC decisions that weren't final.
And so OPEC, I think they didn't like this because they felt like it was disseminating
false information or at least misrepresenting stuff that was still undecided as decided.
And so Reuters floated that there was going to be potentially another OPEC increase at their next meeting next month.
And OPEC came out and said, well, via their sort of normal channels said,
hey, no, we haven't even started talking about what we're going to do next month.
We didn't talk about that this last meeting.
We don't know what they're talking about, but maybe people believe them more today than they did yesterday.
But again, that was sort of already in the market.
So that's it.
Can I add on to that as well?
Oh, God.
Josh, I was talking to some traders,
commodity traders in Singapore
and Indians that are commodity traders in Singapore.
And they're saying they are a little bit concerned if there is a wider
confrontation with Pakistan on multiple fronts,
the world's largest refinery, single refinery,
is not that far from the border.
It's only 200 miles from the border.
So Jamnagar refinery
does about one million
and a quarter barrels a day.
It's one of the most flexible and one of the
newest refineries.
And there's a wider petrochemical complex there
too. There's a lot of plastics and stuff.
So that could
come into play if this gets any
worse. And that's a lot of
refining that gets removed because most
of that is exported yeah i mean my observation would be that that refining complex and other
similar ones in that part of the world has been used to evade sanctions on russian and iranian
and venezuelan but mostly russian Russian and Iranian oil. And so to the
extent that that got taken out, that could actually both be positive for refining spreads
and potentially for non-Iranian, non-Russian oil prices. I know it sounds weird, but it was really
only a couple of places or a few places in the world that you can take that sanctioned oil today.
of places or a few places in the world that you can take that sanctioned oil today. And
it's typically like one or two cargoes where they'll like do ship to ship transfers and
then it'll magically end up in India. But India ended up in this very weird scenario where they
were magically both using and exporting a lot more oil by 2023 than they were at the start of 2022, even though they were already
fully reopened from COVID and all that stuff by early 22. And so it looked like that was
Russian-sanctioned oil, and now it looks like there's some combination of Russian and Iranian
sanctioned oil. So I actually don't know. I mean, if I were a physical trader in Singapore,
maybe I'd be involved in that business. I'm not, to be clear, but that would be very alarming to me because it's extraordinarily
profitable to wash that oil.
Sort of like money laundering is very profitable.
It's also illegal.
So I think that may be something.
There's a bunch of groups that are upset about what's going on, including the sanctions
enforcement and so on. But I would watch for that.
I don't think a lot of that oil, like you said,
that's being refined in that particular complex is actually being used
domestically. I think it's just being magically imported from like Malaysia,
which doesn't really produce much. And then re-exported to Europe.
Just to be clear, right?
What they are saying is that, you know,
it's only a problem if this spreads and gets uncontrolled, right?
It's not a problem.
Now, the attacks are not, you know, anywhere near that.
I'm just saying what I heard, that's all.
There is no risk now,
but if you start looking at potential risks,
then it's near the border. Yeah, yeah, no, for sure. I think it makes sense to pay attention
to it. I think it's a reasonable consideration. When you look at these conflicts, the last few
armed conflicts, when you're seeing oil infrastructure, I think I saw some stuff in
Sudan, but I'm not 100% sure. Yemen oil infrastructure has gotten bombed.
Iran, some of their oil infrastructure, like that port recently had an explosion,
whether it was the rocket fuel that they had there for drones being stored improperly,
or whether it was some external party or who knows. And then Russia and Ukraine have been
bombing each other's energy
infrastructure. So it's not a stretch at all. I would say, I don't know how to assign the
probability again. I hope this conflict stops, right? It's terrible. Hopefully they just,
you know, arrest the terrorists that blew up stuff and killed people in India and everyone sort of,
you know, resolves. But if not, you know, there's a decent chance, but again, hard to say that a
probability it would
get attacked. So I completely agree. It makes sense to think about it. I was just pointing out
the reason I gave that detail is I was trying to help you see how I would see it from an oil
market perspective. I actually don't think it would be material. It might be incrementally
positive for global refining margins, but I actually don't know that it would hurt oil prices
much, even though it'd be hurting refining and not oil supply, because of the nature of what it
looks like. And again, I don't know for sure. And there's no definitive proof. I've seen some
articles, but it's not my personal analysis or belief, just a view I've heard and I'm resharing.
I think it makes sense that that oil
wouldn't end up in other places to displace oil from, you know, the U.S. or various other
parts of the Middle East.
Thanks always, Josh.
There was also, there was really weird news.
Yeah, absolutely.
I enjoyed chatting. Really weird news around a prospective Houthi U.S. ceasefire that may or may not have happened that the U.S. said the Houthis denied. Oman said it happened.
because Israel and the war in Gaza was the justification for the Houthis to start attacking ships in the Red Sea.
So we'll see.
But Zim, the container ship company, was down 10%, I think, on that news.
And various tanker stocks were up or down or whatever.
And it's a very weird and uncertain news flow environment.
And I think it makes sense to take a lot of this stuff
with a degree of skepticism
because there is this fog of war
around a number of these things.
And, you know, it's unfortunate
the president of the United States says something
and we don't know for sure if it's true or not.
I am watching gold right here. Gold is about to close at a record high or GC futures at least are.
Josh, do you have any insights around gold as well? Gold and oil both moving up strongly today.
Is that a war hedge?
Yeah, I don't know. That's actually sort of unusual it's funny that the best idea i've
shared publicly in a long time was that they had these uh gold coins at costco you could buy a few
percent below spot if you added an executive membership and their credit card um which is
very unusual normally coins in the little one ounce bars sell for like 50 or 100 above spot
so i went and bought some and this bloom reporter, I don't know, whatever, for some reason ended up in the news talking about it.
And there is safe deposit box just before anyone gets excited. So I don't know. I mean,
gold is a great inflation hedge. It's also a good hedge on some of the uncertainty that we've seen
from a monetary perspective and potentially for various currencies that are experiencing
significant devaluations or where there's been a recent revaluation up that people are wanting to
crystallize, especially in places where there's a number of countries where you're not legally
allowed to move more than a certain amount of money. But in many of those countries, you're actually allowed to buy gold.
And there was a case for gold, I think, for a long time,
and crypto absorbed a lot of that incremental capital.
And it seems like, I guess, Bitcoin is sort of near its all-time high.
I don't know that I really understand the fundamental case for either,
but it seems like gold has been catching up a little in terms of attracting funds, incremental funds, making a similar bet.
Maybe it's in places where crypto is either more regulated or more controlled.
Maybe it's that there are central banks that are buying gold and they don't really want to buy crypto.
Not sure 100%, but that's the best I can tell.
But it is very unusual for gold and oil to
go up on the same day. And again, I just think the oil move today was more about correcting
a wrong move yesterday based on sort of bad news items and headlines that were unreliable
rather than being something sort of fundamental or longer term.
What about bonds going up along with gold as well?
That's weird.
That's bizarre. I don't know.
I mean, war is considered inflationary, right?
So gold continuing up would make sense because that's a big inflation hedge.
So gold continuing up would make sense because that's a big inflation hedge.
But is war on the other side of the world inflationary?
Like, is it globally inflationary?
I mean, I worry.
I mean, again, I don't really have a side in that particular conflict, and I just hope that it gets resolved peacefully.
But I worry about potential demand impact for oil and for global goods. I mean,
if it spirals and people are hurt or killed, there's a lot of people in a very relatively
small amount of land. And that could really hurt. I mean, there's been a lot of economic growth in
India and in Pakistan. There's a lot of people, a lot of demographic growth there relative to most
of the world. Yeah, there could be negative impacts from war there.
So it actually could be, depending on what happens,
especially because they're both nuclear powers.
And again, I really hope this doesn't happen,
but I think it makes sense to just consider various scenarios
and thinking about potential economic impacts.
Again, horrible from a humanitarian perspective,
but if there was something where a lot of people died,
it would be horrible for a lot of different goods and services in addition to the humanitarian
tragedy.
Go ahead, Sam.
Go ahead, Sam.
I was actually going to ask, Josh, saw a lot of your work lately.
Good stuff.
What is your take on the bond market?
Do you think we hit a pivot low in terms of the bond markets or yields, a pivot high lately, especially with the 10 years?
Sorry, just had a phone call.
Sorry, just had a phone call.
Or do you think that we're going to continue in a downtrend, given that inflation might be a little bit sticky, especially with this war news continuing?
Hey, yeah, thanks for the compliment. I appreciate it.
Yeah, I think I don't know. I mean, I'm bad at short-term stuff generally. I just had a view on this oil move just because of some of the drama around the OPEC reporting and some of the stuff people are saying that wasn't true or wasn't necessarily true and was denied.
And again, there's fog of war around stuff with the Houthis. There's fog of war on stuff, obviously, with India and Pakistan and also around the oil market and the way OPEC Plus
operates is I think they intentionally add uncertainty. For bonds in the short term,
I really don't know. In the medium term, I would say I've seen reports that Doge is cutting way
less than people thought and that there's very little short-term fiscal impact.
And from what I've read, the budget that's working its way through,
if it hasn't already been approved, would incur a very large deficit.
And the uncertainty around these tariffs,
at first people thought it was to try to get rates lower, to try to refinance U.S. debt.
That didn't work, or maybe it wasn't really the goal.
And then Besson has actually said some things that were not very confident.
Even today, he talked about the deficit and talked about various other things that are not what I would have expected.
He's sort of like the chief bond salesman.
He said some stuff that wasn't very strong for the dollar and wasn't really very strong
for U.S. bonds.
So if the deficit continues, there's an argument that interest rates could rise even in economic weakness.
It's the sort of Brazilification. So like Palo Macros put out stuff on that,
Cuppies put out stuff like that. So there is a risk that you end up with economic weakness
potentially in higher rates or economic strength in higher rates just because there is so much
deficit spending. Oh, I remember Beson said he didn't know at what point
where if we borrow money, it would be too much
in the bond market, but just sort of refuse to finance us.
Something, not those exact words,
but that idea as I understood it.
So, you know, I think there's a lot of risk in bonds
and I don't know that I fully understand it
and I don't really have a
position in either direction. Thanks, man.
Now, what are your thoughts on the dollar? Because I mean, it's been moving down considerably.
And with Besson's comments saying that debt ceiling is pretty much going to be inevitably
raised. Do you think that bonds are derivative impact from the U.S. dollar falling?
Because I find it very odd that the dollar is getting depreciated so much,
but the bond market is moving correlated with the dollar.
So the yields are going up while the dollar is going down when I would expect the opposite.
A lot of weird things in this market, but I don't know. I mean, if you have any thoughts about that, sorry to keep on handing your questions, but you
seem pretty good in this field. So what are your thoughts?
Sure. Yeah. Honestly, like it's not really my specialty. US bonds aren't, you know, relative
currency strength or weakness.
It's just it's a very tough, complicated field in which many of the people that think they're experts don't really know much.
So I know for sure I'm not an expert in this. So I don't know. I don't really understand it.
I didn't understand when the dollar was so strong the last few years.
I don't really know why it's weaker right now.
I have seen some theories that make very,
very little sense that have been widely disseminated in both directions for the dollar.
And then people have very strong views on, let's say, oil correlation with a dollar or oil
correlation with 10-year yields. And I don't really buy any of that. I think they're just
looking at things that have had short term relationships for specific reasons.
But longer term for oil, for example, or for any commodity, it's really just driven by supply and demand.
And you have a supply and demand, the short term meet at whatever price the market bears.
And then you have inventories build or draw based on sort of that short term price being correct relative to
balancing the market or not. So that to me, I get that wrong a lot too, but at least that's in
theory a lot simpler, where it's just how much oil is being used, how much is being supplied,
and then how much will be added or subtracted in the future. And even that, you know, the market's extremely volatile and complicated.
And so for the dollar and other sort of relative values of currencies or relative yields for
bonds, I mean, it's like, you know, Besant is amazing because he made it like billions
of dollars betting on this stuff that's orders of magnitude more complicated than what most
people struggle to figure out.
Stock talk, we still got you?
Yep, I'm here.
I just feel like I didn't get a good enough stock talk rant today. I just want to
bring it back to you.
Like I said, it's 72 hours since we talked
yeah whatever budget stocks i mean i literally just got back this morning i was in scottsdale
this weekend but um i just got back this morning so i didn't take as close to look as the market
today as i normally do but um yeah i mean some of those stocks i brought up just some relative
strength candidates you know once we get this deep into the macro narrative and we've spent, I don't know, so many spaces talking about the tariff stuff.
And like, you know, I feel like everybody who listens to these spaces knows my opinion on all that stuff.
So I don't want to regurgitate that.
But other than that, I just focus on the micro.
You know, I just focus on my stock picking and my trades and the names i'm interested in owning and the names i'm interested in not owning anymore uh for whatever reason that
might be so um yeah we went over a couple of those today like i mentioned talent energy did really
well in this environment exometry xmtr i thought made a statement move today uh with that 11%
move higher uh you know doubled its three-month average volume. I think that was a real statement move for that stock today.
And maybe that's not going to end up just being flat out one of the biggest mid-cap.
Well, it's really a small cap, 1.5 billion market cap.
But one of the biggest high beta beneficiaries of this tariff stuff.
So I thought that was my biggest takeaway from today with Exometry.
And, I mean, we have a nice cushion on that now 20 cushion on shares so that gives me the flexibility to kind of you know
play that um a little bit more loosely than some of my other positions um but yeah i mean on a
market like today on a market like today where we were down a little bit and you know a lot of my
positions were green that's a good thing you know that makes me feel confident in the stocks i'm picking so um yeah i just continue to remain focused on
the micro there weren't a ton of interesting reports this morning that i think are comment
worth commenting on outside of what uh i already mentioned with mbis and uh the downside report
on sweet green from jp morgan um that i touched on earlier. But I mean, there were a lot of comments on him,
which I know a lot of people follow stock.
They follow.
There was a ton of commentary on that this morning that made a pretty
dramatic move this morning too,
for those that were watching the action on it.
It made like a massive, massive intraday swing.
It closed up 18%.
And I think off the open, it was down um you know like 10 so you
know made a 20 30 swing there um which was pretty impressive to see and a lot of positive commentary
on that name as well this morning including from bank of america who's been very negative on that
stock for um quite a while uh even they uh made some bullish commentary this morning uh on hymns
um outside of that there there really wasn't much i mean it's kind of a slower day um from the sell
side outside of those handful of stocks um that i brought up so yeah just not there's not as much
for me to rant about today i guess is what i'm trying to say but i'm happy to chat about other
topics or you guys have other things you want to bring up I'm trying to say. But I'm happy to chat about other topics.
If you guys have other things you want to bring up,
I'm happy to dive into that.
I mean, it's the same topics,
right, over and over without a whole
lot of updates. I mean, tomorrow,
Powell probably does nothing, says nothing.
Yeah,
I mean, like, we go through this.
I hate that we kind of have to do this, but, I mean, I get it.
Yeah, I mean, look, I don't think the Fed's going to change rates.
You know, I think what most people are probably focused on is if we're going to get a rate cut at some point this year at all, or if not, or if we're going to get maybe two, or if not. And I think more important
than that conversation of like speculating on that, I mean, you can really just look at the
FedWatch tool, and you're going to get a pretty surefire answer. I mean, the FedWatch tool hasn't
been wrong once this entire cycle. So if you look at the FedWatch tool before the meeting,
you're going to know what happens. You know, a lot of people like jump on Twitter, and they're
like, I'm predicting this, I'm predicting this for the Fed meeting. And they're just all regurgitating what the FedWatch tool is saying.
So if you want to know what's going to happen at the upcoming Fed meeting,
go to the FedWatch tool.
Outside of that, yeah, Powell's commentary does matter.
I think his confidence about the economy matters.
I will say the last time he spoke, he sounded incrementally less confident to me.
There were a lot of I I don't knows more.
I don't know.
I don't know than usual.
I don't know again,
if that's just me being too focused on the semantics,
but he does a pretty good job of managing expectations.
And even in the instances where he is panicked,
he usually doesn't panic the market.
You know,
I always talk about the exception to that being the Jackson Hole
from, what was it, 22 or 23?
I can't remember which Jackson Hole that was,
but where the market sold off hard after it.
Outside of that instance,
he's been a pretty good confidence injector for the markets when he speaks.
And so, assuming he doesn't say anything new,
I imagine his commentary won't be too
influential what everyone's focused on here is what the tariffs are going to be six months from
now like we've seen so many commentaries on these calls where people are like hey we haven't seen a
q1 impact right but we will see a q2 q3 q4 impact if the tariffs remain in place. That's like been probably the most parented statement on Wall Street.
You know, that goes for people who lowered guidance, reiterated guidance.
You know, it goes for people who did all sorts of actions on the data side,
but then said that statement to go along with it.
So it's, I know a lot of people are like, well,
market doesn't care about tariffs anymore.
It's not the tariff thing that the market's moving off of.
I just don't agree with that.
I don't agree with that.
Do I think that there's like, do I think as a second order impact of the tariff thing, there are recessionary fears?
Yes, I do think that that is true.
But to me, I still view those as an extension of the
tariffs. So like, everything to me, it comes back to tariffs. If the tariffs went from 145% on China
to 0% tomorrow, like, that would alleviate a lot of the problems that people are concerned about.
Is that going to happen? I mean, obviously, probably not. That would be like
kind of a ridiculous 180, but maybe, you know, or maybe they go down to 30% or 40%. I don't know
who it was. I think it was like BlackRock CEO, somebody, I saw a headline this morning where he
said, even if tariffs got cut to 50%, it would be too late for the economy. And I don't know if I agree with that,
because the hard data is still pretty good. I think Bassem mentioned that today,
and I agree with him on that. The hard data is still pretty good. I think most of the fear is
still in the speculative areas of the markets. And I think most of the fear is still in this
narrative building attitude where people are trying to, you know, play out the tariff impact on a macroeconomic basis. And it's really unprecedented.
Like if you go back to when tariffs were used historically, like a lot of people like to
reference Smoot-Hawley, the level of globalization at that point was not near what it is today.
of globalization at that point was not near what it is today. And so you have to expect that those
impacts would be exacerbated because, again, the level of intimacy between global economies is much
higher today than it was back then, you know, or even than it was 10 years ago. So that matters too.
And I think that that makes it really hard to forecast the impacts of what this
is going to do if we actually don't get relief, you know, because a lot of people are like, oh,
well, the 90 day pause is in place. Like, so we can't really study the impacts of this.
The China tariffs are active. People are paying them. You know, you see a ton of small businesses
post customer receipts on Twitter.
Larger businesses have also done the same, you know, paying hundreds of like small businesses,
paying hundreds of thousands of dollars in customs fees for imports.
So we are seeing an impact. Is it an economy wide impact yet?
No, but it takes time for those things to snowball they
don't it doesn't just happen overnight you know first you get investments that stall then margins
get impacted then you know massive layoffs happen in an attempt to buoy those margins and then costs
get passed to the consumer like all of this of this is, like, a staged process.
It's not...
Did you see them questioning Besson on that,
who pays for tariffs, like, 10 times today in that scenario?
Yeah, I did not like his answer to that question.
I don't like that he, like, just dodged the question.
Yeah, I did see that clip, though.
I did not like that exchange.
I mean, obviously, the senator wasn't being particularly cordial about it either, so I'm not like that exchange. I mean, obviously the senator wasn't being particularly cordial about it either.
So I'm not saying that.
But I didn't like that Bissette dodged it because he knows the answer to the question.
You know, like, this is the thing.
A lot of people on this issue want somebody they trust to tell them how to feel about this.
And to me, this is not one of those issues.
You don't need to be an economist or have a PhD in macroeconomics to understand tariffs. It's a
very simple process. And the costs either get absorbed by the person that pays that check at customs or they get passed on.
That's it.
Or some mix of the two.
There is no like magical alternative here.
So if you're somebody that believes that the companies that are importing these things
in the United States are going to absorb the cost fully, okay, you're allowed to have that
position, I guess, even though it's not true, but you're allowed to have that position i guess even though it's not true but you're allowed
to have that position and if you're somebody that believes that all the costs are passed on to the
consumer you're allowed to have that position even though that's also not true you know the reality
is it's some mixture of the both you know there will be some level of margin impact because these
guys will absorb some level of the cost.
The difficulty is, is that percentage of cost absorption is going to vary from industry to industry depending on what other tariff impacts they have.
Like in automobiles, for example, right?
Ford pulled their full year guidance, right?
And a lot of people were shocked by that.
I wasn't shocked by that because Ford has a lot to figure out in the next few months,
as does GM.
You know, these guys have to not only measure the impact of the tariffs on the actual products,
but have to measure the tariffs on the impact all the way up the supply chain.
And so in instances where a company is highly exposed on both the supply chain and final product side to tariffs, costs will undoubtedly be passed to the consumers in those situations.
There's no way around it.
The companies literally cannot afford to absorb 100 percent of the cost if they are if they fall into that category.
that category. So for the companies that have like, you know, six out of eight of their major
supply chain components and the final product all exposed to 50 to 100% tariffs,
the prices of those products are going to go up. And anyone who tells you otherwise is like
literally lost their mind. There's no logical way to explain otherwise. Now, there will be some industries where either by virtue of being domestic manufacturers
or receiving some other sort of indirect or direct incentive or boost in business
from this whole tariff policy, those companies will be more willing and in some case incentivized to absorb costs.
So yes, there will be baskets of companies that don't raise their prices that much
or just raise their prices incrementally.
So again, as I always overuse this word, but like I always say, this is a nuanced issue.
This is not a like, you know, tariffs are good, tariffs are bad,
or companies will absorb
costs or companies will not absorb any costs. You can't take extremes on this issue, because if you
do, you're just being frankly ignorant. You're just refusing to acknowledge the fact that it's
going to vary from company to company, and it's going to vary from product to product. And there
are a lot of supply chains that we have no hope of reshoring in any sort of
timely manner and in those cases the cost of the products have to go up so you just have to think
about this on an industry by industry basis and think about it reasonably um and i didn't like
percent's answer to it because he knows the answer to the question. He's not an idiot. The guy is very, very educated and experienced
and knows markets and understands the economy.
So the idea that he would give that answer
was kind of disappointing to me
because he knew, I get,
and look, from a political sense, I get it.
A lot of people are going to be like,
well, he was setting him up.
You know, he wanted him to say a particular thing
and Basant didn't want to walk into that.
From a political aspect, I get it. but Bacent could have given an informative answer and explained what I just
explained instead of just, you know, dodging the question. I'm going to ask you about the Trump
Carney meeting. Did you take anything away from that at all? And then obviously later he said, or in the middle of that,
he said he's going to make that very, very big announcement
around a certain subject, no hints, blah, blah, blah.
It could be Thursday, it could be Friday,
it could be before they leave Monday.
Well, any takeaways from the meeting with Carney
and then any idea what that big announcement is going to be?
He said it might even be not trade related.
Who knows?
He was really beating around the bush.
I mean, I hope it's trade related because, you know, the UK.
Well, that's all we want at this point, right?
I mean, that's all I want.
I feel like if something's announced that's not trade related, I feel like the market's
probably just going to sell off and be like, well, they're not doing anything.
I don't think the market is given issue, I don't think the market has given issue
with most of the policy that Trump has had
outside of tariffs.
I think that's been the blunder.
I think everything else the market has been cool with.
And so, yeah, if you ask what the market wants,
yeah, the market wants to hear a deal on trade.
And we got an announcement today
between the UK and India.
I actually saw the headline that thought it was, it said India and the.s and i clicked into it and i was like oh what the hell
this is the united kingdom so i was like the market popped on that too it did right when
that came out and then immediately reversed yeah it reversed when people realized it was the uk
and not the u.s so um like that's not a good sign that like you know we're supposed to be the one
signing deals and like india signing a deal with the UK, European union and China are dropping sanctions on each other.
Like, you know, where, where, where are we in the mix here?
Like who, who's making deals with us? I don't know.
So hopefully it's a trade deal.
That's what I'll say about Trump's announcement.
As far as the meeting with Carney goes. Yeah. I watched the whole thing.
Um, I don't know.
It was funny cause there was like a clickbait headline on the video too
that was like Mark Carney and Trump clash in dramatic White House exchange
where Carney says Canada is not for sale.
And I like listened to it and I was like, what?
What clash?
Like they were like sitting beside each other.
It was completely cordial the whole time.
So that was just funny.
Like it just clickbaity headline from the media. Yeah, he only made like one kind of like cutting
remark toward him. But even later in the day, he said, yeah, maybe I'll stop calling him governor
now. Like, like he even kind of respected him, I felt like. Yeah, he stood up to him. Yeah,
exactly. And like, he didn't do it in a, like, basically for people that didn't watch it. What
happened was, was Trump was asked about Canada becoming the 51st state. and he started explaining why he thinks it makes sense. He was talking about Canadians
getting lower taxes and how we're like-minded people. And then they went to Carney after,
and Carney was like, hey, Trump, you know this from real estate, but some things just aren't for
sale, and Canada's not for sale. And that was Mark Carney's response to him. And then he proceeded to
say, but look, we want to be partners with the United States.
And he sort of addressed the points that Trump made.
You know, Trump brought up national defense and how Canada doesn't really spend on national
defense and we protect them.
And Carney was like, yeah, you're right.
We need to have a step change in defense spending.
So that'll be a part of our negotiations.
And so he's kind of making or at least presenting it to the media that he's willing to give concessions to Trump on some of these things like fentanyl and Canadian defense spending.
And, you know, better Trump wants better prices for U.S. purchases of Canadian energy.
So maybe that'll be a part of the discussions.
But look, I know people think that the Canada deal matters a whole lot because they're like a close
ally of ours obviously if you're canadian it matters a lot because the canadian economy
will get crushed um if a deal is not done there but to be frank like it's not a huge deal for the
united states there is some energy security issues in the northeastern United States that could arise if Canada does decide to retaliate on the energy front. But they pulled
that retaliation pretty quickly when it was announced by Ontario. They pulled it within
like 24 hours because Trump said he was going to get it considered an act of war. So I don't think
Canada is going to play hardball. But net net, what I'm saying is the Canada deal doesn't really matter in comparison to the deals with the European Union and China.
Like it's just not as economically important a country.
So, yeah, if we get a Canada deal done, great.
Cool. That's awesome.
You know, I would like to see our Canadian neighbors thrive, too.
But it's much more important to get the EU to the table.
And it's much more important to get China to the table.
I found it a little bit concerning today during Basen's commentary when he said we have 18 major trade partners and we're chatting with 17 of them.
And then he mentioned explicitly that they had not negotiated with China.
I guess that sort of settles this
exchange that's been going on in the media these last three weeks, where the White House has been
saying we are talking to China and China has been saying no, they're not. And then today,
Bessent says, yeah, we're not talking. So that was fucking stupid. Like, we spent two weeks and like
30 headlines going back and forth on that.
And the scent just came out today and said, yeah, we're not talking with them.
So that's concerning.
You know, the two biggest economies in the world who both have the most to lose from this, by the way, are just not talking to each other.
other. I don't love the sound of that. I would have hoped by now we'd have at least some lower
I don't love the sound of that.
level negotiating teams, maybe from the commerce ministries meeting at some kind of neutral
location and starting a conversation, you know, maybe not signing a deal, but at least starting
a conversation. We haven't had that, which is, again, a bit concerning.
So, yeah, I mean, I hope this scenario gets better,
but obviously if it doesn't, then we'll get a recession,
and, you know, we'll go from there.
But at this point, I mean, we talk about this every week.
We're like, hey, is a deal coming? Is a deal not coming?
And we haven't got one yet.
So, you know, I'll change my tune my tune i guess once we start getting deals but we've been promised deals for like almost a month now and have found nothing
um so yeah i don't know
what's up monotiv i was just gonna add that thatIndia deal, they started negotiation back in 2021.
So these things don't happen overnight or 90 days or 30 days or whatever.
There is no clock for these things.
They happen when everybody's willing to live with whatever the terms and conditions are for at least the period of signing the damn deal.
So it's going to take time. the terms and conditions are for at least you know the period of signing the damn deal so
it's going to take time it's not going to happen in in in the time period that that the president wants and unfortunately you know the the the the you know the the school boy tons don't help
but but also it's it's not...
Everybody is different, right?
I mean, there are some very bureaucratic countries like UK,
where everything goes through so many layers
before it actually gets to any decision maker.
And India, where it's equally bureaucratic,
but there's a government that's willing to cut through all that noise
and actually get some things done, versus Europe, which is, again, extremely bureaucratic but there's a government that's willing to cut through all that noise and actually get some things done versus you know europe which is again extremely bureaucratic so i think
we have to temper expectations on how quickly the deals get done and if they do get done very
quickly it's more likely going to be you know just just closing everything uh you know getting
out of the noise and maybe taking it all to the
background and dealing
with it over time, which is probably a
good thing. I'm not saying that that shouldn't happen.
But taking it off
the headlines is probably the best we can
hope for soon.
Yeah, I agree that these things take a long time.
I didn't mean to imply they should happen quickly.
I just think the thing that complicates it this time around is that traditionally, at least in the last 15 years or so, trade deals are not negotiated with active tariffs of this size on the board.
And that's the part that concerns me is like if these negotiations are going to take two years and in the interim you have two years of 145 percent tariffs.
Like a lot of companies are just going to die from that.
And maybe that's the consequence of this.
I mean, I don't know.
I don't know.
Some people think it's worth the risk is worth the reward or like we're doing. Like, yeah, there's going to be pain. I don't know.
I just think there could have been a whole lot more finesse that would have saved a lot of those companies.
But eventually it becomes too late to turn around economic momentum.
Like, you know, right now we've seen like a slowing and stalling in economic momentum.
It started softly showing up in GDP data, depending on which jobs data you look
at, whether you're looking at ADP or the initial claims, or you're looking at NFP. Depending on
the jobs data you're looking at, there are some spots of weakness. Overall, I would say it's
holding up pretty well from a hard data standpoint, but this is how it starts, really. It starts with
a little bit of a tapering off, slowing down, kind of uncertainty and guidance,
and then it snowballs into a little bit more uncertainty,
a little bit more impact to hard data,
and then boom, you fall off a cliff,
and then everyone's like, what the fuck happened?
And, you know, I just hope we don't get to that point
because I think you need to get at least,
forget about trade deals, because I agree with you, those take years. You need to get at least forget about trade deals because I agree with you.
Those take years.
You need to get some level of resolution on the front with Europe and China.
And that could mean coming to some common agreements in terms of energy exports and imports or in terms of industrial exports and imports, which Europe has already
said they're willing to go zero for zero on.
Like some of these verbal agreements need to happen in the media, in the public eye
to soften the perceived impact of this.
Because very often in a modern economy that is driven by constant news flow, that's an economy where perception
of weakness turns into real weakness.
You know, you don't actually, it's not just the checks these people are writing at customs.
That's not really the economic impact.
The economic impact is somebody saying, I can't afford to keep writing these checks.
And as a consequence of that, I'm going to change the behavior of my business.
I'm either going to import less.
I'm either going to raise my prices.
I'm going to fire employees.
I'm going to take some of these operational measures to either soften the blow of tariffs
or recalibrate the business to be less vulnerable to tariffs.
And that's where your economic impact comes when these companies adjust.
You know, it's part of why I've been saying for so long that it's foolish.
The people who are critics of the critics of these policies who say, you know, well,
I don't care about these big companies stocks going down like it doesn't matter to me you know if the hundred and billion dollar company
becomes a 60 billion dollar company well it does matter to the everyday people
that work at that company that that's who it matters to and those are everyday
Americans just like you you know get a salary who go home and you know maybe
have a family or whatever.
Like, those people lose their jobs when stocks go down 40%, 50%.
And when costs go up and margins go down and uncertainty rises.
So the idea that the stock market is not the economy is true in the sense that it's not literally the economy.
But it does impact the economy.
And if you think otherwise, you just, again, are not thinking.
So, yeah, I agree with you.
Trade deals take a long time, and these are going to take a long time too.
But in the meantime, we can't have tariffs at this level.
That's the main problem.
And hopefully somebody realizes that sooner than later, as opposed to us keep playing this, you know, he said,
she said game with China and standing our ground. Because yeah, China's hurting. A lot of people
are pointing that out too. China's hurting. Well, you know, just wait. You know, they're going to
cave. That's not really China's MO to cave. You know, American culture is much more of an immediate gratification culture than Chinese culture.
These people will batten down the hatches.
You know, it's a saving culture.
They don't live on the margin with massive amounts of credit card debt the way that Americans do.
They can batten down the hatches, stimulate the economy, and yeah, they'll take a hit.
can batten down the hashes, stimulate the economy, and yeah, they'll take a hit. But there's an
argument to be made that maybe they can take that punch better than the American public can,
especially from an economic standpoint. So we have to be careful about shooting ourselves in
the foot here. If you're really careful about that, like that, I think that little moniker
is a perfect one for this scenario
because if we do decide to force this issue and leave these in place for two or three years
um you know I've brought up this uh analogy before too but it's like pulling a pulling
the pin on a hand grenade in you know a room full of people including yourself and
that's just not good policy, in my opinion.
So we'll see what happens.
Trump just made some more comments at this other swearing-in ceremony he was at.
Nothing really earth-shattering other than the fact that he said this,
whatever he's going to announce is going to be earth-shattering.
We have a earth-shattering and positive announcement to come in the next few days, was the quote. Other than the fact that he said this, whatever he's going to announce is going to be earth shattering.
We have a earth shattering and positive announcement to come in the next few days was the quote there.
Said he was aware of the India strikes on Pakistan and that was a shame was the comment I saw as well.
All right.
I think we're at a pretty good spot there.
I needed that stock talk ran in my life.
It feels much better. I feel complete now.
I feel wholesome.
Look at gold, man.
Gold.
I'm interested to see what happens when everything opens back up here in, what, 35 minutes or so.
Yep.
Is GLD still running?
It is taking off.
Completely taking off.
When those futures open, they are going to probably be... Probably gap up.
Well, they're definitely going to gap up.
So they're probably going to be at like $34.50 or $60.
Some of the names I reported earlier, ANAT down 7% now.
SMCI has bounced all around.
It's rolling back over, trading at $31 a share.
It's down 5.8%.
AMD not doing a whole lot, still up and a half uh kind of bouncing around lisa
sue's talking right now i had that playing on the other background rivian literally doing nothing
just going sideways no one cares until probably q1 of 2026 at this point and that's about it um
spy hanging out down near the low of day still. We'll see what happens overnight.
Obviously, a lot of things.
You're starting to see a lot of this conflict pop up on social media over there between India and Pakistan.
So we'll keep an eye on that throughout the evening.
And with that, I guess we'll go ahead and close it up for today.
Big day tomorrow as well.
Same place, same time as always here on stocks on spaces of course we'll financial we'll have spaces with live trading all that all throughout the day
um we have uber and disney just a quick reminder uber and disney earnings before the open tomorrow
novo nordisk as well actually it's not same time same place tomorrow i'll get to that in a second
uh but earnings tomorrow uber dis, Nova Nordisk in the morning,
as well as some other names.
I know some people watch on here.
After Hours, Arm, MercadoLibre, Oxy, Carvana, several other names.
I'm sure people are following just to call out a few there.
We will start early tomorrow.
I believe the plan is to start about 1.45 Eastern
and be live for Jerome Powell's press conference.
So early start tomorrow here.
We'll have the full, at least the full Jerome Powell speech.
And then we'll have live reactions from everyone as that happens tomorrow.
He usually goes about 30, 45 minutes or so.
It seems like maybe a little bit longer.
So we'll be live for that
maybe, I don't know, how long does he normally go?
Does he normally go over an hour?
I feel like he does go into power hour sometimes
Who?
Powell
Oh, yeah
he goes about like 10-15 minutes into power hour
so like, I'm taking LA time
Okay, 12-15
12- 12.15
3.15
AMD went flat
oh AMD just dropped
hard what did she just say
I don't know
the video is dropping too
oh boy
I had it muted there while I was talking
oh well I'm sure somebody will tweet it out
in the next few moments.
Got to love this platform we're on.
But, yeah, just to finish up that thought, we will be live early tomorrow around 1.45 p.m. Eastern.
I don't think we're expecting anything at the announcement, but we'll be live for it, and we'll talk about it.
We'll have Jerome Powell, I'm sure one of us will get it, playing live here on the space.
And then we'll have live reactions to that ahead of all of those earnings tomorrow.
So big day coming tomorrow.
In general, we'll see what the Fed has to say around everything going on.
And, of course, continued earnings, all of the above here on Stocks on Spaces.
Hope everyone has a great rest of their Tuesday afternoon, evening, night, wherever you are in the world. Thanks for tuning in. We'll catch you guys tomorrow. Take care,
everyone. Thank you.
