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Airdrop SZN, $GRAPE & web3 gaming, Moonbirds Buyout? - Lucky Lead
Recorded: Dec. 20, 2023 Duration: 1:03:48Space Recording
Full Transcription
gmgm thank you for joining us here this morning we're going to start the show here in just a few
minutes we'll give it a few for folks to filter in get our speakers up on stage while we wait
here are some tunes
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Good morning and welcome to The Lucky Lead.
Today is Wednesday, December 20th.
It is another sunny, almost winter day on deck here in Chicago.
We are hitting 42 degrees, downright warm for a Chicago winter day.
NFT traders, they're feeling warm and fuzzy today after a major surprise airdrop announcement yesterday from the frame team.
Grapes holders, they're feeling pretty warm ahead of the token going live tomorrow here as well.
But there is a lot on the line for that token.
We're going to break it all down on today's show.
I see some friendly faces out there.
Riggs, Brentwood, McCall, thanks for joining us.
As a reminder for any new listeners out there, we do run this show every weekday, Monday to Friday at 10 a.m. Eastern,
covering all the major news in crypto and NFTs.
I'm your host, Tyler D., and I'm joined today by some amazing co-hosts.
We've got Emily Loves Crypto, a Web3 security expert and co-founder of Foolproof Labs.
Logan Hitchcock, editor-in-chief over at Lucky Trader.
He's repping the Lucky Trader account.
He's been covering the space in-depth for years.
And Ghost, content star over at Lucky Trader, Quiet Whale, deep in the AI streets but still hanging out with us.
Ghost, GM, how are you doing?
Good morning, Tyler.
Doing well.
Excited for a trip to Florida that I have coming up tomorrow morning.
And so excited to get some sunshine and some rest and relaxation coming up over the holiday season here.
Well, we're excited for you.
So Ghost is going to be feeling actually warm and not a fake Chicago 42-degree day warm.
So a bit of jealousy here on my side, but happy for you, Ghost.
Folks, what are we talking about today?
On the docket, we're going to start with the frame airdrop for NFT traders.
And if it can make it as a marketplace in an L2,
then we're going to talk about the Grape Token going live tomorrow,
new Overworld rewards details, Moonbird's acquisition rumors,
the Saga phone spiking on secondary after another airdrop,
Izanami Island's reactions, plus a whole lot more.
Before we dive in, though, Ghost, any housekeeping for today?
Yeah, you know it.
As always, if you enjoyed this show,
Tyler does a great rundown of the NFT space every morning in the Morning Minute newsletter.
Get that pinned to the top of the spaces.
Make sure you subscribe to that if you haven't already.
All right, Ghost, thank you for that.
Folks, a reminder, we've been keeping the show more casual as of late.
It's almost the holidays.
If you've got a hot take on any of the topics we're covering today,
feel free to request, raise your hand, come up, and join the conversation.
We'd love to have you.
All right, let's dive into our top story here from this morning's Morning Minute newsletter.
Frame announces a new NFT-centric L2 and token.
So NFT traders got a welcome surprise.
On Tuesday morning, a new airdrop is coming in the Frame token.
The amount each user is receiving is mostly tied to past trading activity,
and it is backed by some big names.
So this one might have some legs.
So for starters, what is Frame?
So yesterday, the Frame team formally announced an initial fundraise led by Electric Capital
and an initial airdrop of its native Frame token.
Frame is an ETH L2 focused on enforcing royalties at the network level.
So the team is tailoring to creators by enforcing royalties via its pallet protocol,
giving a portion of sequencer fees to its Frame creator fund,
and by enabling any existing EVM smart contracts to be deployed as is on Frame.
So for artists, launching on Frame will be a no-brainer.
I think the question will be, will they launch elsewhere as well?
Security also front and center with Frame,
with the team touting new standards, protocol layer changes,
and most custody options, including delegate cash built in.
Frames, angels, and investors are a who's who list of Web3 founders and influencers,
including 9gag from MemeLand,
Lucanets from the Pudgy Penguins,
Zagabon from Mizuki,
Loopify, Ding-a-Lang,
OXFubar,
OXQuit,
and more.
Its testnet is now open for deposits,
and users can also do quests for more points or tokens.
You know, speaking of those tokens,
so the Frame airdrop details.
So Frame is kicking off its decentralization journey by rewarding active NFT community members.
The token will be used for governance of the network,
and it is transfer locked until the Frame mainnet goes live on January 31st, 2024,
meaning the token is not yet live.
It cannot be traded yet.
Interested users can claim their Frame tokens on Frame's governance page.
Points are distributed mostly based on historical trading and royalties paid on those trades.
It seems like they are maxing it at 4,500 tokens per wallet,
though I did see a few exceptions.
I think I saw Pranksy get like 7,500.
And users who transacted at all and paid any royalties can expect at least 50 to 150 points.
So go through your wallets.
I personally had some tokens on about five wallets.
The max token allocation of just 4,500, to me, means this should be a fairly distributed airdrop.
And most blur farmers, most sybils aren't going to benefit that much.
For example, a million dollars in trading activity with no royalties paid is not going to count at all for points.
So that is going to disqualify, you know, a huge chunk of the market here.
And this does take me to our last question here.
Is Frame going to make it?
I'm going to share my thoughts, and I want to hear from our speakers here as well.
Certainly the NFT marketplace game is a very competitive sector.
We saw LooksRare and X2Y2 both come on the scene in 2022.
With big airdrops, they failed to ultimately capture market share.
We've seen several kind of come in in the last year as well.
It seems only blur has really been able to capture, you know, meaningful market share so far with their 75% share.
Can blur be displaced?
I think the key for me is incentives.
So the royalties carrot is a nice one, specifically for founders and artists.
So they will be incentivized to list and drop their work on Frame.
I think what matters is will buyers be incentivized to buy, trade, and collect there.
So that is going to be a problem for the Frame team to solve.
And they're facing an uphill battle as users are going to have to pay higher fees on Frame for NFTs than they would on other marketplaces which aren't enforcing royalties.
And that's where the incentives are going to need to kick in related to the Frame token.
I think if the team can figure those incentives out and line up some market makers for this token here on January 31st, they've got a real shot to make a dent.
And I think many in the market are pulling for them to make it happen.
So that was my spiel.
I'm going to pause.
I want to hear from our speakers here.
Logan, maybe I'll tee you up first.
What were your reactions to the announcement here broadly?
Okay.
Good morning, Tyler.
Well, firstly, new airdrop excitement, right?
That's kind of the first emotion that I think all of us feel when we see something like that, particularly as this one, as you noted with the wide distribution, is rewarding people who participated up to two years back.
You know, so I had to send this one actually even in some family group chats for some of my relatives who were making trades on ETH, you know, what, a year and a half ago, two years ago at this point.
So first, first reaction, excitement.
After that, though, I think you have to be, you know, cautiously optimistic when you see the, you know, the advisors and the angels that are participating here, then the team as well with Saigar and beyond.
And it's difficult, right, for something like this, as you've noted, to really stand out amongst, you know, behemoth and blur, you know, the habits of OpenSea and beyond.
But when you have the, I don't know, when you have the team or the technical acumen or insert any other, you know, adjectives you want to say about those advising, it gives a little bit of promise.
I don't know what to expect, really, though.
That habit thing is what is, like, the biggest roadblock for me here.
Like, we've already talked about the royalties thing a lot, you know, will, like, reduced gas fees, reduced, right, fees for interacting with an L2 offset the additional royalty payment here enough to make it matter?
Will the incentives for this token, you know, incentivize enough that it'll matter?
I mean, they've got to pull a huge, huge share in trading, you know, to really stand out here.
So, I don't know.
I guess we'll see.
I'm, you know, cautiously optimistic just based on the team and what was shared yesterday, the advisors and the distribution mechanics.
But I'm not, you know, I don't feel super great about people changing their behaviors.
Yeah, I'm with you there.
It's certainly an uphill battle, but they've got the right team, angels, and advisors in place to make a run at this.
I mean, you've got the MemeLand community, the Pudgy community, Azuki, that's something outside of Bored Apes.
That's pretty much the three biggest, you know, PFP communities out there.
I'm curious, you know, what those founders will do if they will make any meaningful moves with their collections tied to this.
I mean, MemeLand infamously has been able to enforce royalties on Blur, something that very few projects have been able to do.
Now, I think we've seen other projects choosing to launch now, just entirely outside of Blur.
So, like, there is some demand for this, certainly on the founder and artist side.
But will the traders go there, I think, is the question.
Emily, I want to get your thoughts and reactions to the announcement.
Yeah, I think, I think it just kind of, royalties in general, continue to fly in the face of decentralization.
And I feel like it was a very poorly thought out narrative that was, you know, kind of perpetuated by limited marketplaces.
And people like Gary Vee talking about how, you know, it's kind of a new frontier to guarantee income to artists.
And then it got quickly absorbed by these generative art launches.
And the real benefactor here is companies that have made enormous amounts of money and aren't really doing much to reinforce the ecosystem.
And it's just not what I'm personally here for.
And I think that, you know, they've got a very well-stacked team.
And I think that they do have a lot of power and influence to kind of dictate the narrative.
But I think that it's basically spinning in circles.
I mean, we've discussed many times how royalties, especially in a community, are effectively a snake eating its own tail, where you're constantly incentivizing holders to sell because, you know, the money is worth more than the asset.
And, you know, constantly trying to convince new people to join where the asset is worth everything you'll get for the money.
And that's just a self-consuming model that's very not sustainable.
And we have lots of good examples of these models.
So, I mean, yay or drop.
That's always fun.
I just think we're kind of stuck going in circles at this point.
And someone is going to have to prove that there is a viable way to build in a decentralized ecosystem.
And we know there is.
You know, the best bet is to charge the toll fee on the roads that you build to the cool cities, right?
Like, if you're making cool applications and people want to use those cool applications, you know, to reduce middlemen in your transactions, then the best thing to do is to be a validator.
Because if you're building cool enough shit, then you're going to increase traffic on that network.
And I just don't think that royalties is truly a good value add to the system for anybody but the person at the top.
And, like, that's kind of it.
So, like, okay, here's more royalties.
Yeah, I agree with a lot of your sentiment.
I think the market has broadly spoken that folks don't want to pay royalties.
And, of course, I'm not speaking for everyone.
I'm speaking for the broad masses who are in the space.
We don't need to rehash the entire conversation.
There's clearly nuance between paying royalties on a one-of-one piece of art or a small collection of art versus a $10,000 or $20,000 PFB collection that are launching in the dozens per week.
Ghost, I want to tag you into the conversation.
Curious for your reactions to the announcement.
Is going after royalties the right pillar?
Do you think people will want to pay on a new platform?
Yeah, I think it's interesting.
And it reminds me back of when Blur launched with the team that you mentioned or the backers behind it.
And when Blur first launched and people were kind of skeptical, I think we looked at that, like, trusted and backed by on the Blur website and saw, like, 6529 and Kazomo and Deez and other people.
And that's what made us trusted inherently.
So I think that this similar lineup of people that are now backing this new product gives it a better chance of success.
And kind of comes at the right time of, like, this airdrop mania and, like Logan mentioned, giving people who traded even two years ago.
Like, I think that this is a nice little potential stimulus that could get people back involved and interested in trading.
And with some of the leaders of the top PFP projects here, like, if some of those are incentivized to move their stuff over or prioritize listing on the new platform, like, I think that sets it up nicely for some initial success.
But always bullish on vampire attacks and free money.
But it's just a matter of, like people said, if habits can change.
But, like, we continually see why, like, how are people going to prioritize listing on OpenSea and stuff like that when now you have so many different competitors that are kind of incentivizing you in different ways to go to other platforms.
It's just very tough without a token or incentivization structure.
Yeah, it's going to be tough for OpenSea, and I think it's going to impact Blur, right?
I mean, Blur only has so many more airdrops.
So now we've got the Blast airdrop.
It's already trading at something like $6 billion market cap on AVO, on the futures predictions markets.
So there is going to be demand for that.
It's just a matter of how long is that team going to be able to extend the incentives.
But this is a great time, you know, to launch.
I mean, farming is as hot as ever.
Folks are as interested as ever, at least the participants still here, in trying out new protocols that are rewarding its users.
And I think rewarding the active users, you know, from the past was a good start for this.
So I guess, Logie, kind of continuing the discussion, can Frame make it?
And then maybe part two of that question, can the token make it, at least initially, without the network making it long-term?
Curious for your thoughts on the network as well as the token.
I definitely think it's an uphill battle, as you've already alluded to.
I mean, can you make it?
Man, it just seems like so much has to go right.
But I guess we'll see out of the gate.
Those first, you know, few weeks, what, January 31st is mainnet launch.
Probably the first few weeks, both in terms of, like, the actual frame activity, as well as the macro environment, which just moves so quickly in this space, right?
We could be at a point in time there where NFTs are deader than dead.
You know, it's just the reality of the market that we play in.
With some momentum, the first few weeks, I think, yeah, maybe it can make it.
I'm just still, like, I don't know, man.
I'm so skeptical about every single token that comes out.
Of course, very happy every time, right?
There's an opportunity to, you know, dump some free money that I didn't know I'd have.
But at the same time, it just, there's such a roadblock in my brain.
You know, maybe this is me not being left curve enough, but such a roadblock in my brain to just rationalize why said token exists, why this token, you know, whatever, moving forward could or should be valuable.
And so that part will take a lot for me, probably.
It's going to require a really strong launch, in my opinion, because something like this can die out very, very quickly.
Like, if there's no, you know, if there's nobody using it outside of just people claiming and dropping their tokens, why would people use it in the future?
Yeah, I mean, so you're clearly mid-curving this one, and I'm happy to call you out on this left curve, Logie.
So, like, what matters, what this is going to come down to is I understand that the token is going to go live when the network goes live for trading.
So, if they've got the market makers lined up and Frame comes out at, you know, a few hundred million dollar market cap, and those tokens that everyone got are worth five grand, ten grand, or more, and they announce the token incentives for season one, I think you can bet your ass folks are going to be trading over there.
So, that's what matters, but if that token comes out low, if everyone dumps, and, you know, it quickly goes to zero, then folks aren't going to use it.
So, they're kind of making a risky play here, you know, having the token go live with the network.
I think, clearly, they must feel strong about their chances here.
And given some recent, you know, successful token launches, they're launching at a good time, I will say that.
Do you guys remember the LooksRare token activity in those first few weeks?
It ran to the $7 billion.
It's $7 billion.
It was $7 a token.
Now, it's at nine cents.
I mean, could we see similar type of activity here?
I don't know.
It's not, it's not, LooksRare launched in the, you know, peak crypto bull, so clearly a different setup here.
But coins are pumping.
Sol's at $80.
Bitcoin's at $44.
It's not a terrible setup.
Ghost, I'll throw the same question to you.
Do you think Frame can make it?
Do you think the token can make it?
Or perhaps, are those two even the same question?
Or, you know, they are very different questions.
Yeah, I mean, I think it certainly can make it.
I think it has a lot of things, as we previously mentioned, that are lining up nicely for it.
I think it's also going to be a matter of how much buy-in they get from those investors and backers with their specific projects, you know.
So, if people, if that's where all of them are listed, like, people are going to move over.
So, I think that they have a chance in that regard, just a matter of how much the backers and projects are willing to tie in their projects with the new platform over things like Blur and OpenSea.
So, we'll see.
But, I mean, it's definitely at the right place, right time, it feels like right now, anyway.
Yeah, the setup is very strong.
I was wondering.
I had a feeling we were going to get some surprise airdrops around Christmas time.
I think my hot take is I think we've got another one coming.
I think we're going to get something on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day or sometime that week.
I don't think the frame airdrop is the only one folks are going to get.
And I do think, I mean, we've been, I've been saying that the Ethereum NFT market is somewhat dead here until the blast unlock or another catalyst comes.
Well, January 31st, I mean, now is looking like another catalyst event.
If Blast unlocks in February, you know, we could look, we could be looking at a really nice setup here for Q1 ETH NFTs.
Ken, you requested to come up on stage.
Curious for your thoughts on frame, the frame token, or any other broad reactions.
Yeah, I mean, generally, the frame or others, there's a tendency on Ethereum historically for people to drop tokens before there's a clear sense of a business model or the ultimate utility of a product.
And I think in particular, when you're dropping tokens to people that have basically just getting free money, don't have a product yet, don't have any sense of strong ties to the product.
The tendency is that once they have a chance to sell that token, a lot of people will sell.
And so it creates this sort of devaluation of your token.
Even if it's you're building the greatest product ever, a lot of folks aren't going to wait around for you to prove that.
I think the other problem, too, with dropping tokens before there's clear utility or clear community around a product is it creates this sort of, it creates this problem where lots of products need to iterate over time to really understand and hone in on, right, the value proposition.
And then when you have a whole set of token holders who are either leaning towards just number go up, what can you do for me, it creates a lot of noise and distraction.
And I think it actually takes away from the ability of a team to, you know, build in public, figure out the value proposition, you know, determine who's here for the long term, determine who your holders are, determine like user behavior.
Like all these things and data points, you haven't even started unearthing that, but you've already distributed a token.
And so it creates this weird perverse incentive one.
And I think it just creates a lot of noise that takes away from your ability to actually execute and build a business model.
And so for me, when I look at that relative to what else there is out there that has utility, product, prior to token, like it's easy just to fade and dump these and then go buy the token of a product that already has, you know, proven community and proven product and some sort of business model that's taking shape.
I'm with you. I think that's going to be somewhat common sentiment here, you know, out of the gate until, you know, frame can, can prove it.
Whatever market cap that come out, it will be totally unproven at that time.
And you're really just betting on the team and the concept.
So, you know, we will certainly see, but it is always exciting when we get the big new airdrop news in the space, especially for an Ethereum NFT trading community,
who I can, I'm guessing still mostly down a little bit after a very long pronounced bear market period.
Perhaps this is going to be another catalyst to help kickstart the next cycle here.
Well, folks, we've got a lot of other news to talk about here today, so we're going to move on.
First, let's read the news.
Today's top headlines powered by Lucky Trader.
Trading volume on ETH held steady at $18.5 million on Tuesday.
NFT leaders saw mostly green on the day.
Web3 gaming NFTs did lead those top movers with Skyborne up 77% to 1.28 ETH.
The grapes up 49% to 2.48 and Overworld and Karna up another 10% to 2.56.
That grape token will go live for trading tomorrow morning at 6 a.m. Eastern on KU Coin.
And Bybet likely dictating the near-term fate of the Web3 gaming sector.
So that is a big one.
Flash trade led volume on Solana yesterday after minting out at 3 soul and running to a 12.7 soul floor.
I think it hit like 15 at peak.
On 34,000 soul volume.
That's $2.6 million.
Just a huge amount of volume on flash trade while other soul leaders did chop or dip on the day.
In other Solana news, Solana Saga phone holders got a surprise airdrop yesterday when the Access Protocol airdropped everyone 100,000 ACS tokens.
That was worth right around $259 as another major airdrop for them.
And those phones selling reportedly for $5,000 or more on eBay right now.
In other news, Richard Nadler's Izanami Islands minted out in its ranked Dutch auction at $3,222.
Right around 1.5 ETH.
And they are holding a 1.55 ETH floor here this morning.
Overworld outlined its points program and holder rewards ahead of its NNCT token drop in Q1 2024.
Points can be gained by holding and delisting incarnate NFTs and more.
And then Magic Eden announced a new partnership with Tayo Robotics to continue putting creators first.
In crypto and Web3 news, I'm looking at the crypto board right now.
It is boom and Bitcoin up 3.7%, $44,170.
Ethereum up 2.6%, $22.50.
Sol up 8.5% at $80.60.
I think that is the highest number I've read on this show here this year.
Other L1s have rallied again.
Injective was up 8.7%.
Near was up 20% or more.
In the meme coin game, Whiff fell about 30% to $140 million.
I'm looking at it now.
It's closer to $120 million.
That Kok Inu coin on AVAX ran all the way to $270 million yesterday.
It fell, I think, closer to $200 million here this morning.
We saw God's Unchained back in the Epic Game Store after a policy change from Epic now marked as adults only 18+.
I know Logan got a kick out of that one.
Privy introduced global embedded wallets.
And then Phantom teased some Bitcoin integration in what could be one of the most slept on big pieces of news that came out yesterday.
So I'm going to pause there.
That was a mouthful of headlines.
Logan, I want to get your reactions.
Maybe we start with the Grape token launch.
What do we know?
How important is this token launch for Web3 Gaming?
Oh, boy.
You know what?
I really don't think it's that important to Web3 Gaming overall.
I don't think a flop tomorrow when this hits KuCoin and Bybit and whatever other marketplaces have vowed to let trading of this happen.
And, like, I don't think that would mark a flop.
I just, I don't see Grapes at this point in time being, like, a major signal of what the overall Web3 Gaming market looks like.
To me, right now, the Web3 Gaming market is being, like, really, really highlighted by all these newer launches.
And I think those are the major drivers of the overall meta, if I can say that.
Things like Overworld, we saw the Champions Tactics, the Ubisoft stuff from the other day as well.
I think those are the things that are contributing a bit more to the momentum.
Just personal opinion here.
So, I don't think Grape Token, whatever happens tomorrow, I don't think it's going to be a big deal either way.
I would not be betting on price go up.
That's for sure.
My take will be that this probably sells off a little bit when people have more opportunities to easily get rid of it.
Oh, man, I cannot disagree with Logie Moore here, which will be the second time here on this morning's show.
So, we're in for a treat here.
I don't know if Logie has shocked himself out of the left curve mode, or perhaps I'm too mid-curving on this one.
So, I feel like Grape's led the way for so many of these projects.
And again, there's nuance to this.
This isn't all of them.
I think projects like Overworld probably stand on their own right now.
But so many of these NFTs on Ethereum launch that are bucketed in this Web3 Gaming bucket have pumped so much.
If they have a token or rumors of any kind of a token coming.
And now we've got our first major one for an NFT that was in the 0.1 to 0.2 ETH range and ran all the way to 4 ETH.
It's now 2.5.
We saw their pre-sale over-allocated by some absurd amount.
I think they raised something like $90 million for like $250,000 in slots.
So, people are throwing money at this.
Certainly, folks are going to be looking to sell those tokens on day one.
And if they are able to do so and recoup a nice profit, even in factoring in any losses in the NFTs, I think that's going to be huge.
But if the alternative happens and they come out underwater, I do think we're going to see a pullback fairly broadly across the board.
But let's get others to weigh in.
Ghost, what do you think?
How important is this Grape token launch to this broader Web3 Gaming sector?
Oh, man.
I don't think it's super important to the ecosystem as a whole.
I think that there's going to be a million different tokens, and this is just another launch.
I mean, I think that obviously you want to see it be successful, and it is set up nicely as one of the top ones there.
But I don't think if this one goes awry, that means that the Web3 Gaming system as a whole is going to come crashing down or anything like that.
So, I think there's going to be plenty of opportunities and plenty of other tokens as well.
So, I'm trying not to feel FOMO about every single token and launch here that's pumping because it's definitely tough seeing all the euphoria on the timeline and tons of wins not to feel like you're behind.
But there's a million opportunities every day, so just got to keep chugging forward.
I'm with you there.
I do have the question.
I've asked this question about so many tokens on this show.
Like, why would you buy the Grape token on day one?
I understand buying the Grape's NFTs in the past.
I understood that thesis ahead of the token launch, but I don't understand who is buying the token here when it comes out tomorrow.
Of course, I'm probably mid-curving this one.
I want to switch gears and talk about another Web3 Gaming project in Overworld.
So, Overworld, if anyone's been following the price action, you know, they launched last Friday.
There was some FUD around the Mint.
You know, folks on the white list didn't have their chance.
Then on Saturday, this was somewhat overlooked because of the exports going around.
A co-founder came out, apologized, listed all the ways they're going to make it right.
And guess what?
It's just been marching up ever since.
I mean, I think it was around 1.5 ETH when they made that announcement.
It's now at 2.7.
So, up, what, 80% here in just four days.
And, I mean, Logan, I'm curious.
You know, I think you wrote this up for us or at least posted about it.
What are some of the details of this new rewards program ahead of their token launch?
And then what do you think it might mean for market action?
Yeah, it's great.
Overworld, a huge fan at this point.
I'm not an owner or in no way tied bags-wise.
But the communication here in the last few days has been excellent.
Super transparent with this points program, which proportionally equates to MNCT,
which is the token that's coming in Q1 2024.
We just saw them announce that this is Overworld I'm talking about.
Saw them announce that, you know, they're partnering with Horizon Labs,
famous for ApeCoin, who's partnered with Pixelmon and beyond.
But basically, if you hold and delist an Incarna NFT before December 20th,
which is when they're taking their first Snapchat, I guess that's today, 12.30 a.m. UTC.
I'm bad at the UTC thing.
Did that already happen, Tyler?
What time was it, UTC, Luke?
12.30 a.m.
Then, yeah, that would have happened.
Okay, all right.
Well, that already happened.
So they took a first snapshot for delisted Incarnas,
at which point, you know, people start accruing their points
based on how many they're holding.
So, you know, if you have one Incarna delisted,
you earn, like, one point, I believe it's per day,
and then it just kind of rolls itself over up until that token drop in Q1 2024.
One of the really interesting things about this, sort of a little wrinkle,
is if you do end up listing, or, sorry, you end up, like, yeah, listing and then selling your NFT,
like, it resets all the points.
There's some interesting wrinkles to it.
I encourage you to read either the thread or the reporting at luckytrader.com.
But I'm just really, really glad that they have been super transparent about what exactly is transpiring here.
You know, your points are going to be proportional to the tokens that you receive,
and, you know, they've just spelled it out.
It's not just points for points.
It's literally points for tokens.
Yeah.
So, we've seen this, you know, similar points allocations.
I think MemeLand, you know, did something similar with their staking program, right?
I don't know if it's exactly the same.
But what I was getting at is, you know, folks are not going to keep their NFTs listed.
There's going to be low float.
I'm looking at OpenSea right now.
There's 2% listed on this collection out of just 6,000 items in total.
So, anytime buyers are going to come in, this thing is just going to march up.
So, anytime there's sweeps, anytime, you know, there's new alpha groups pumping in it.
I don't own any of these.
I think this is the primary Web3 Gaming NFT on my radar right now.
I'm trying to think of ways to free up some capital to buy into this.
You know, I've seen that price targets in the 5 to 8 ETH range.
Ahead of their token launch.
That totally seems doable to me.
So, this one sounds great.
The other one on my list, Pixelmon.
I heard through the rumor mill.
I don't have the, you know, the story behind this.
Pixelmon did a recent raise.
And it was over 3.5x allocated from investors trying to just pour money into Pixelmon.
So, I think those are two projects, Overworld and Pixelmon, that are at the top of my list right now.
So, don't own any.
So, not talking my bag here.
But I think these are two projects that can sustain any dip that might happen because of the grape token fallout from tomorrow.
That's my spiel.
Ken, curious for your thoughts on Overworld or Web3 Gaming here.
Yeah, so, I was one of those people who sort of missed out on the whitelist or supposed to be the whitelist and missed out.
It was through a collaboration they had with the Yield Guild Games.
And I'm a YGG Founders Coin Holder.
And, you know, one thing I'll say, like, this is a big contrast, right, to the airdrop token we were talking about earlier on, where they've led with an NFT.
They've created a transparent system for how value accrues, right, to that NFT or those NFTs you hold.
There's a point system.
It's fairly transparent.
Everyone knows what game you're playing.
And, you know, I think this is a better way.
And then it's attached to clearly a game that is at or close to launch.
And so, for me, you know, I think this is, right, a good way or a better way to actually launch a project, right?
You build it around an NFT where people can earn points, but also it forms the basis of your initial community.
And you've created an incentive structure where people are incentivized to hold.
And so, for those who don't see this as a long-term game, they want to, right, play or they don't have the time, or for whatever reasons, right, you're better off selling.
And those who say, okay, this is a game I want to play.
This is a system I want to be part of, right?
So, it creates a system where people can self-select in.
And to me, the longer they draw it out, the better in a way, right?
You want to filter people out who are in it for the game, in it for the long-term, and who are willing to tie off that capital to earn points that I think eventually might translate into a token drop, right?
So, right off the bat, I think it's just a better token design.
And I think some of the moves they made and the conversations I've seen in the halls of Yield Guild Games, as an example, shows that a lot of people are excited not just about the NFT, but about, you know, the game that's to come.
And so, to me, that's a fairly, you know, reliable signal that, okay, these guys are doing something right, and we're seeing it also with the partnerships and, you know, public partnerships they're announcing.
So, to me, this is a much better approach to take, and I think it puts them in good stead if they continue on this path.
Yeah, well, I appreciate your thoughts, again, as someone in this ecosystem and following it closely.
And I do tend to agree with your sentiment.
So, it's going to be a fun one to watch, and I think this one could certainly propel to the top of the Web3 Gaming leaderboard here in the weeks to come,
depending how they continue to roll out this program.
I want to switch.
We've got this in the Spaces header here.
We've got to talk about this Moonbirds buyout.
So, this is not an official story.
There are no official details on this, but the rumors took over the timeline last night.
You know, anywhere from Kevin Rose and the team are looking to actively shop Moonbirds.
We saw several folks kind of step up and make public offers on Twitter, including OX5F Capital, who I know from the Frintech game,
and they made a splash, made a name for themselves in that sector.
I think they offered $250,000 for Moonbirds.
I saw a few other offers.
I guess my question for this group and anyone else listening who has insight, could this happen?
What would this mean for the Moonbirds?
Logan, what's your read on the tea leaves here?
Do you think there's – is there, you know, fire for the smoke that's coming out right now?
What's your read on how real this is?
Yeah, I'm not exactly sure how real this is.
It doesn't necessarily shock me, you know, if this was being shopped in some way.
I know I had mentioned earlier that if we're looking for, you know, one of the most coke-filled or hate-filled rallies,
it would come from Moonbirds.
And I do expect that if a sale were to take place, we would see, like, a little bit of a short-term burst.
I'm just not sure at this point in time.
I feel bad saying this, but, like, I think the brand just may be kind of tarnished, you know,
almost maybe beyond repair at this point in time, which sounds really, really terrible to say.
Of course, just my opinion as well, not any official reporting here.
So, I don't know how real.
I do suspect there are probably talks happening or have been talks for a long time about ways to, you know,
whether that's Kevin to step back or just to kind of shift hands in leadership,
maybe even just within proof, which wouldn't necessarily, you know, equate to an acquisition.
So, that would be probably the most likely outcome, in my opinion.
But if this were to sell, yeah, I think some short-term positive stuff.
Long-term, I'm not so certain who wants to undertake the burden of reworking, you know,
the community's feel about this project and the ecosystem overall.
It's a tricky situation to walk into, certainly.
And I've got a lot of questions.
I think folks are talking about Moonbirds.
You know, what does this mean for proof?
Is this an acquisition of the entire proof system?
Are they just spinning off an asset here in the Moonbirds collection, but keeping proof?
And what would that look like?
You know, for me, I think it depends a lot on who the team or person behind the takeover would be
and what it might mean for near-term market action.
But, Ghost, I want to get your thoughts, and then we'll throw it to a Ken.
You were in the Moonbird game.
I'm not sure how closely you were following the rumor mill yesterday.
Do you feel like that this one actually has some legs?
Is it just rumors?
And what it might mean for the Moonbirds market?
Yeah, I mean, I've been following the rumors a little bit.
I've seen a lot of the drama in Discord with different mods and people arguing.
Seems like a complete shit show.
So, and I'm not super surprised that these rumors are circulating because it kind of seems like Kevin Rose has been a little bit checked out
or is, like, tired of feuding with the community.
They're kind of in one of those positions.
We've talked about this with a million different projects where there's, at some point,
there's a tipping point where there's just nothing you can do that can possibly make people happy.
There's too many bag holders, too many people underwater.
And that kind of feels like the situation right now.
So I'm sure that Kevin Rose would be happy to hand this off to someone else as he's tired of dealing with this stuff
as an entrepreneur who's trying to build bigger businesses, I feel like.
And I'm not saying that he's working on proof or whatever he's doing,
but I think that he has grander plans than what he expected launching, like, a PFP project here.
So I am not surprised by the rumors, but I also think that while there might be some sort of, like,
short-term pump or something like that if it did get sold,
unless it went to someone, like, very reputable in the space or a previous founder, like,
going to Yuga or something like that, I think it's going to be very hard to turn this sentiment around
given how many people are just completely underwater and kind of done with the project, in my opinion.
Very fair.
I've got a reply to our space here from Riggs.
He's saying it's a fact.
That's all I can say.
I mean, I think I've seen more and more Discord comments from Kevin come out where, you know,
he's talking what feels like to be very seriously about a potential acquisition
and turning the project over.
So this does feel like more than rumors now.
Ken, sorry, I've got to go to Emily, give her the co-host privilege,
and then we'll circle back to you.
Emily?
Yeah, so what I've definitely noticed is a trend in some of these NFTs,
two projects that really, like, died out, or I guess companies, that really died out in the bear market,
is that they have this inability to pivot on what they kind of set out to do,
or they didn't have a clear vision initially.
Like, I think there was a lot of opportunists that kind of came out into the market
and decided that, you know, oh, I can sell a product in this hot market without much consideration
for how difficult it is to, like, sell a product or be sustainable in a pretty chilly, slow market.
And, you know, if you've built a product for a slow market,
if you build something out of necessity or something that, like, really fills a void,
then you're not going to have that much trouble.
You might have trouble gaining a lot of traction.
But, you know, like, I think proof is definitely one of those companies
that they were not very clear about what their intentions were,
but the hype was enough.
And I think a lot of the people that were early in NFTs
just didn't have an enormous amount of experience
in kind of what goes wrong in startups.
And, like, you can't...
I don't think there's a lot of defending what happened with Kevin Rowe at Dig.
Like, he took a really amazing product to, like, stumble upon
and absolutely tanked it without understanding the market at all
and had, like, huge amounts of money.
And I think we're kind of just, like, watching that replay,
but we didn't have that...
Well, a lot of people here just didn't have that context or understanding
and, you know, thought that raising the ability to convince people
to give you money for this asset was enough
and then made a bunch of, you know, bad choices
that felt like they were in poor faith
and lacked the transparency that people wanted.
And now you have a completely untrusted company.
So, you know, I don't really know what's going to happen for proof.
And if buying it would mean anything,
I don't think there's much to buy other than a gigantic treasury.
Like, it seems like handing over control is a much better issue.
There isn't a whole lot there.
Well, certainly a lot to unpack there.
I would agree that I think the Moonbirds project
never seemed to have much of a sustained vision.
I'm going to put proof aside.
I mean, I think proof has done some great things with Grails.
I think Grails is one of the cooler art projects
that has come out and sustained market attention over several years.
But I was a Moonbirds buyer from day one.
I bought five in the 8th to 10th range on midday.
It was my birthday.
Two weeks later, they were worth 40 ETH each.
I thought I was a genius.
We were all just high-fiving every single day.
Money was pouring in.
And just a few months later, they announced the fundraise.
And I think part of the excitement back then was,
I mean, the board apes had just gone to 100, 150 ETH floor
from mostly native Web3 or previously unknown founders.
Here was a successful, we can debate, dig at a later time,
a successful Web2 founder and Kevin Rose coming into the space.
And people were throwing money at him.
And we thought this one was going to go to 100.
It didn't.
Some of the visions started to fizzle out over time.
And then a lot of folks kind of like me ended up round tripping a lot of those gains
and just led to this broad saltiness.
So certainly a lot of baggage still in the collection.
Ken, you've been patiently waiting.
Curious for your thoughts.
Yeah.
So just to double click on Riggs' statement,
I also have it fairly from good, reliable sources
that there's some truth to Moonbird's mythics being shopped around.
It wouldn't go along with a treasury, right?
So proof is a company and it holds a bunch of assets.
From what I understand, they're trying to shop around the Moonbird's mythics brand
and basically just roll that out.
I don't think it necessarily comes with a large treasury,
even though I think there's been some conversations about money in some context.
But I think to the broader issue, and I agree wholeheartedly with Emily,
I think the story of Moonbirds will go down as a story of greed,
lack of vision, and ultimately incompetence.
Because I think, you know, even a lot of folks,
and I was also a day one nester,
so I minted a Moonbird and bought a second on that day
and have sort of seen the story play out.
And, you know, I think the fundraise, for example,
was a bad decision in retrospect,
because ultimately now you have a community with high expectations
and then you throw in another stakeholder
who actually has more agency, right?
You're a regular company,
and so your VCs will definitely have more agency
in decision-making than the community
that you just raised tens of millions of dollars from.
You did that also with the auspices of having proof coming along,
and there was always this tension between proof, Moonbirds,
who's getting what, right?
It was terrible, and that was never addressed, right?
The product ideas around high-rise,
which I think a lot of us bought into,
this vision of this mega platform
where you can get discovery of assets,
discovery of holders,
something kind of like a Soho,
if people are familiar with that app.
But, like, you know, on a scale that's sort of interesting,
I think that basically got dumped and never released.
And I think ultimately part of the issue I see is that,
and if you look at the Web3 space,
it rewards a lot of the risk-takers, right?
So we can make whatever arguments about Blur,
about whatever platforms,
but those who take risks and actually innovate are rewarded.
And ultimately, proof almost looks like an organization
that was de-risking in a bear market
when you should actually be taking those risks.
You have a big treasury.
And so ultimately, like at every juncture,
it looked like poor decisions were being made.
And I think that basically goes back to leadership.
And I don't think, you know,
Kevin Rose might be a good investor.
He might be a good VC,
but he's a terrible operator.
And he's terrible at actually having a long-term vision
and releasing against that for whatever reasons.
I think proof as a structure,
if you look at the decisions that have been made
over the last six months,
it's been moving more and more back towards
what got them successful with proof, right?
Digging into art, adding some physicals around it.
But that's not going to suffice
when you have Moonbirds and Mythics
and, you know, potentially over 10,000,
15,000, 20,000, almost 30,000 tokens
that are looking for value.
And so I think it makes perfect sense
that are looking to shop it around.
I think it'll be hard pressed to find a buyer.
We're already seeing the market basically vote
by selling off Moonbirds, right?
So there's not a lot of value there.
I think a lot of the core community
has either basically, you know, sold out and left
or is in such a position of dissatisfaction
that whoever kind of accumulates this asset
has a huge, right, hill to climb.
And it just feels like it's not worth the effort.
Just sort of launch something on your own,
take your money and do something new.
And I start from a blank slate.
So I think it'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
But I don't know.
I wouldn't be buying this.
I wouldn't be taking the asset for free, frankly.
Yeah, I mean, the market's certainly speaking here.
The, I didn't, yeah, Moonbirds here at 1.68.
I think that's down.
I saw a 2.4 about 30 days ago.
So it's been a bit of a rough month price-wise.
Logan, you had your hand up and way down.
I don't know if you lost your thought
or if I should throw a ghost here.
I was just going to, yeah,
I was just going to comment on the floor price movement
that you just did,
as well as I was looking at proof collective passes
alongside, which are ironically up 6% in the last day.
I've not been paying attention to them,
so I don't know if that's down from a high or not
over the course of the last day.
But these rumors are widespread enough
that the market should be somewhat reacting to them.
So these prices, not completely unrelated.
I think personally, just to add one last thought
and you can pass it to wherever you want.
If Moonbirds were to get completely erased
from proof's existence,
I'd be much more interested in proof
because I think the whole,
remember the big, big rebrand and everything
that took place earlier this year
when they doubled down and tripled down on art,
that is much more compelling.
It's much easier to understand
and they've got enormous,
fantastic connections with artists.
So just something I was thinking about,
it doesn't mean I would buy a proof collective pass,
but be more interested in the brand overall
should they rid themselves of that lack of vision,
lack of fit with Moonbirds and Mythics and beyond.
Yeah, I'm with you there.
And I think, you know,
Ken kind of touched on this, right?
Proof collective at 1,000 passes
enables you to do things in the art world
that you just can't do
with an additional 10,000 or 20,000 NFT owners
in Moonbirds and Mythics.
If you cut that out
and you pull it back to 1,000,
well, now it becomes more interesting again.
And that proof pass at 2.5 ETH
down from, I think, what we saw,
like 140, 160 at peak that was selling for,
it does become more interesting
if it no longer becomes sunset.
So that'll be a thread to watch.
Ghost, I think your hand was up
and then we'll go to Emily.
Clearly, you guys don't care about
the art collector's PFP there.
You just want the art,
but not the PFP with it.
But I was going to say
that proof has the opportunity
to do the funniest thing of all time,
which is sell it to Ryan Carson,
who makes his triumphant return to Web3
with a new brand or old brand,
should you say,
and then the bull market restarts
because he is back.
I mean, he can sell his Bitcoin punk bag
to help finance the deal.
His exit story I do there,
that would be a hilarious outcome,
though I don't think Ryan
is going to be welcomed back
with open arms anytime soon,
at least not while Riggs is still around.
Emily, we'll go to you and then Kim.
Sure.
Yeah, it just seemed like
proof of the company
is that had all of the advantages
and no ability to execute on them.
And I think with that much goodwill behind you,
you really do have to take
the very clear messaging from the community
who does not want to hold on to the assets
and people do not want to keep buying them,
that you have not done a good job
with some of the smartest people in the space
working for you
and an enormous treasury
and a lot of people offering great ideas.
I think that there is just
an insurmountable amount of hubris there.
And at some point,
it's just going to take
a lot of introspection
to understand
just how big of an opportunity
that you fumbled
to realize that you're just not the person
for the job.
And I think that's crystal clear
to everybody
who's active and aware of the market
and just not
to that
core leadership.
And I think it might be
becoming a little bit more clear
here over time,
but it's hard for me to speak.
Certainly, I'm out of turn there.
Ken, I want to get your thoughts,
then I want to move to Phantom News.
Yeah, so I mean,
I think, you know, again,
so two things.
I think one,
if you think about the things
that got proof originally to success,
it was a matter of access, right?
Kevin had access to artists,
the right people, right?
Flamingo DAO,
the right network
that had access,
preferred access
to some of the best artists
and the best artwork
at a time
where there weren't
a lot of
open platforms
to do that, right?
If you were going to join
Flamingo DAO
or the Lao
or whomever else,
it wasn't as easy
to get access.
And so when you create
a token
where someone can buy
for a couple of ETH,
all of a sudden
they have access
to those rooms
and then the benefits
that accrue
because all you now
have to do
is service, right,
maybe 300 active pass holders
because we have to remember
in the initial proof distribution,
lots of people
had multiples, right?
Lots of people
had four or five.
So the real community size
was actually smaller.
And in that kind
of marketplace,
all you have to do
is service them
high value art
that very few people
can access
and then they can
basically sell
into a massive marketplace
where there's a lot
of demand, right?
That dynamic
has changed massively
over the last few years.
You can buy art
in many places
that have better service,
better everything.
And I think
what's beginning
to happen now
is when you look
at grails
and the current
drop of grails,
to a large extent,
frankly,
it's been a failure, right?
A lot of the grail passes
at one point,
over 40 grail passes
hadn't been even claimed,
let alone redeemed.
That tells you
that all of a sudden
even that core business
that kind of got them there,
you know,
is either
succumbing to market dynamics
that are much more competitive,
one,
but two,
the brand is also
getting polluted
by this overhang
of not only
large holders,
but like a number
of active community members
that are working
against you, right?
That are continuously
trying to,
you know,
destroy and affect
your brand.
And so ultimately,
at some point,
if anything is going
to be salvaged,
they have to get rid
of moonbirds.
They have to get rid
of at least
a lot of that incentive
for the negativity
and then perhaps
figure out
how they can focus
on rescuing
what's left of proof
and the art
and folks
who are in it
for the art.
I mean,
I think it's going
to be tough.
Yeah,
I think there is also
a question,
has Grails run its course?
I think Grails
was fantastic.
Maybe it runs
with cycles,
right?
You mentioned
all the alternatives
that are out there
and just broadly
the art market
on Ethereum
isn't the hot market
right now.
Supply continues
to come out.
There's not a ton
of buyers.
There's billions
of dollars in eighths
staked and locked
in other protocols
and being put
to different uses
right now.
And art has kind
of been put
to the wayside.
So we'll see
if it comes back.
We've got two minutes
left in the show.
Logan,
as our native wallet
follower here
on the show,
Phantom had
a pretty big tease
yesterday
that they might
start integrating
Bitcoin.
I'm curious
how big
of news
do you think
that is?
How big
it would be
for Ordinals?
Certainly,
I feel like
it would be pretty big,
but I'm leading you there.
Of course,
you know,
I agree.
I think it would be massive.
One of the big obstacles,
of course,
to Ordinals,
right,
is then like,
how the hell
do you even get started?
Which of these
random wallet things
that you've probably
never heard of?
Do you trust
to kickstart
your journey?
Phantom is a trusted
brand.
Phantom is fantastic
in terms of UI,
speaking for myself
here,
but I think most
agree.
And just making it
easy,
giving people
an option
that's trusted
and is likely
to be a good
experience
would be a major,
major lift
and onboarding
event for Ordinals,
in my opinion.
Magic Eden
announced
their own wallet
to do something
like this as well.
That would be
another option.
That's one
that I was waiting
for in order
to kind of
kickstart
my journey,
which I've not
yet purchased
any Ordinals
or anything.
But,
you know,
Phantom gets
there first.
Of course,
it's a no-brainer
to trust something
like this.
yeah,
I think it's
fantastic.
Phantom has
been
the most
innovative wallet,
you know,
bar none,
in my opinion,
in Web3
over the course
of the last year,
year and a half.
it doesn't surprise me
at all to see them
innovating and adding
something like this
that seems,
is poised to be
a major market
for a while.
Yeah,
I totally agree
with all those points
and the one
I think that you
didn't touch on
is all this
Solana money.
I don't have
the data behind this
but my read
is most folks
trading on Solana
are using
Phantom.
If there is
an easy way
to swap
sold to Bitcoin
inside that wallet
and then just
connect your
Phantom wallet
to the Ordinals
marketplaces
that exist,
that's your bridge
right there
and that is
pretty damn easy.
If they're able
to pull that off,
you just unlocked
liquidity from
a huge ecosystem
with a lot of folks
who are feeling
fairly rich these days
with Sol over $80.
Ken,
I want to get your thoughts
but we have to
close out the show
so maybe we'll get them
tomorrow or later
this week.
save those thoughts.
Folks,
we are going to wrap
things up here.
Before we go,
what's dropping?
Just a handful
on the list today.
We have memes by 6529
here going live right now.
Baird Onsen
painting with fire
comes at 12 p.m.
Eastern,
Zocchio,
7 p.m.
Eastern.
Today is a much
slower day of drops
as the week begins
to slow down
ahead of the holiday.
I think the big event
to start planning for
is that Grape Token
launch,
which is coming again
6 a.m.
Eastern tomorrow.
So when most folks
are waking up,
that should be live.
I'm sure we'll be
talking about
its impacts,
price action,
and more
on tomorrow's show.
Folks,
that is it.
That's our show.
We'll be back tomorrow
at 10 a.m.
Eastern.
Thanks to our listeners
for tuning in.
Thanks to my co-host.
Thanks to Akin
for coming on up.
Everyone,
enjoy your Wednesday.
Let's make it a great time.
Bye, everybody.
Bye, everybody.
Bye, everybody.
Bye, everybody.
Bye, everybody.
Bye, everybody.
Bye, everybody.
Bye, everybody.
Bye, everybody.
Bye, everybody.
Bye, everybody.
