Alpha Wolves | P2A comparisons | Persona Predictions

Recorded: Feb. 16, 2024 Duration: 1:06:40

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what's up what's up
what's everyone doing spark how are you
what's good man what's good
that's good
good Sam how you feeling buddy
sound better
can confirm
I'm definitely alive
I'm definitely alive
yeah good to verify
what's up Chris
long time no talk buddy, how are you
I don't know if you said
go stay at it
Chris, if you are talking we can't hear you. At least I can't. Maybe I'm the one that's
I'm here.
Okay, what's up Chris?
I'm excited to be here.
Chris is so back.
Yeah, we're so back, baby. Yeah, we take one week off and people get a photo.
Yeah, we're sure.
Why not? I'll be so back too. I'm so back.
Yeah, we're true.
What's up, Jerry? How are you?
Hey, what's up? Good. I'm good. Chris, I have a bone to pick with you. Somebody played
me for a fool in your game and lied to me. And I fell for it. And that's kind of embarrassing.
I remember his name. I saw him in another game and I was happy I killed him.
Yeah, that also happens.
Jerry, you can't have a bone to pick with everybody whose game you suck at.
It was this guy. I wrote his name down and he killed me. He killed me in Mystery Society
and I killed him in shrapnel and it felt phenomenal.
That's awesome. You carried the grudge.
100% Chris, I don't know anything about me. Yeah, Chris, you may not know much about me,
but if there's one thing you need to know, I carry your grudge.
Yeah. Are you grudges interoperable between games?
100% brother.
That's awesome.
Peyton, your microphone sounds a little bit wild. I don't know if you have something new going on.
I'll check. I'll figure out. Maybe I can put some AirPods in or something. Maybe I'll help.
Decentralized grudge system across multiple games facilitated by the blockchain. It's a huge idea.
Yeah, Jerry, if your grudge is required transactions, what chain token would they spend in gas?
I mean, you guys are giving me my whole business idea. Yeah, the grudge token. Yeah,
salt token works really well too. Salt coin.
That's actually not a bad little idea though, that someone that kills you in one shooter,
you jump to another web three shooter and there's like a little note that this guy
killed you in shrapnel or dead drop or something. That's actually like not a bad idea.
Yeah, we need to end this space. We only need to get on a zoom call so we can start this business
idea. Sorry, guys. It's been real, guys. Good episode. We got businesses to start.
It'll be out by this weekend and we'll announce $30 million of fundraising.
Protocol.
All right, we have a huge show today. I'm going to jump right into some introductions. Ladies and
gentlemen, boys and girls and all the crypto curious creatures of the night fasten your
seatbelts to prepare for a mood shot of monumental proportions. We're about to unleash the leader of
the packet crypto research. Behold the liking of the ledger with an uncanny knack for separating
the diamonds from the dog coins. A crypto crusader who can sniff out a scam from a mile away and
unearth the gem hidden in the depths of decentralization with a how that echoes
through the valleys of volatility. He ensures we're always on the trail for the next big catch,
guiding us through the thickets of thorny regulations and overcoming the moonlit
mountains of market manipulations. Welcome to the panel. It's the wielder of wisdom,
the invoker of NFT insight. We got SparkC. Wielder of wisdom at your service.
Never lacking confidence, my man. Once the valiant vanguard vanquishing vicious flames,
he's vaulted from the valor of the firehouse to the volatility of the venture capital markets.
Behold the pyromaniac turned portfolio pioneer, the man who swapped his fire truck for financial
forecasts has now taken on the Asian casino gaming market and turn based play with my angry kuzu
girlfriend alongside his co-conspirator Sinjin. So welcome back to the panel. The man with the
Midas touch. It's Jerry, the Golden God singer. What's up, Sam? There's so many new things in
there. That's good. I haven't felt this feeling in a lot in a while. All the dopamine. I'm stoked
to see everybody at GDC where I will be taking the ox cord from SparkC. Yeah, we'll see. We'll see.
And after ruling realms from the frosty frontiers of Club Penguin to the majestic
kingdoms of Disney and the vast narratives of NBC Universal, he's ventured into a virtual unknown
to craft the most enigmatic, enigmatic, escapade on the ethernet. He's the founder of Mystery Society,
the social deduction game that's got everyone guessing and no one trusting their best friend
because every click could be a clue or a catastrophic con. Ladies and gentlemen,
avatars and AI put your virtual hands together for the man who's making mysteries mandatory,
prepare to be puzzled, perplexed and thoroughly played by the master of social deduction himself.
It's Chris Heatherly. Hey, that's an awesome introduction. Wow.
Thanks, man. Great to have you, Chris. We're also going to be doing a little Mystery Society AMA at
the end of the show, but Chris is going to join us. Feel free to jump in on any topics
that pique your interest, my man, but no pressure. And introducing the indomitable director of
marketing from Champions Ascension. A title as grand as the realms he reigns over and the
luminary founder behind the wolves. Dow a collective that prowls the edges of innovation
with the solidarity of a pack bound by blood and ambition. This is a visionary who get whose gaze
pierces through the fog of the future, leading his pack with the grace of a seasoned alpha.
With the determination of a wolf on the hunt, he fearlessly spearhead these endeavors.
His eyes align with the glint of the next opportunity, always on the prow for the next
breakthrough that will elevate his pack to new heights. Please welcome them back to the stage.
The curator of canines, the patron of pooches. It's Peyton. Oka lani ka po vaidu ika leva hea.
Aloha kinkai yaka ina homana. How's my, uh, how's my, um, voice down? Is it better or no?
Yeah, you sound infinitely better. That's right. Okay. Yeah, Jerry. What do you think,
Jerry? Does that sound good? Yeah, you sound great, man. Thank you for asking for my approval.
Yeah, I appreciate it. Yeah, that's what, that's the only one that matters. Well, no,
you two said it, but Jerry would, Jerry didn't unmute it. And so I just felt like I need to
call him out. All right. We're jumping in with topic. Number one, eluvium. Haven't heard that
name in a while. We've got some trending ones. Don't worry. We're talking persona or talking
play to airdrop, et cetera, et cetera. We're jumping in with eluvium expectations. They
put out a new trailer that's generating some interest, right? And we're sitting just under
a $400 million market cap for them, a hundred dollars a coin. I'm curious what the panel thinks
about expectations going into a new bull run before we talked about the central land and
sandbox. It seems like there's pretty much unanimous feelings that they aren't going
to perform super well in the next bull run, but eluvium seems to be kind of right on the,
the edge in that line in the middle somewhere. I just want to remind everybody, nothing you hear
today is financial advice. Please don't take it that way. If you need financial advice,
go find a financial advisor, but I also will be giving away a couple of, uh, synergy land boxes,
as well as one of my export NFT whitelists that I have to give out. So I'm going to throw that in
the mix for all the commenters, retweeters, likers, all that good stuff. Spark. See,
I'm going to tag you in, man, eluvium this bull run. What do you think? Yeah. So I think eluvium
has enough mindshare from last cycle that when gaming pumps, it's going to pump along with it.
Like I don't think it's going to flounder and drastically underperform like a sandbox or a
decentralized might. Um, if we're talking, does it outperform other gaming tokens? I think you need
to look at like what catalyst does it have left? It's already sold land. It's already done subsidiary
NFT collections. It's done offshoot games. It's been talked about and mentioned by every KOL in
the past. It's done play tests. It's done open betas. It's had nice looking trailers. It's had
its tokenomics come out, which were DGN appealing. It's had funding rounds. It's had initial player
numbers, like what is left as a catalyst for it, right? And what's left is the game actually
succeeding, you know? So if you want to bet on eluvium, you're really betting on the success of
the game, which sounds like the most obvious thing ever, but that's also one of the riskiest bets you
can make in game funnily enough. Um, I personally prefer my investments to have all of those
catalysts I just mentioned yet to come so that there's, uh, the possibility of dollars being made
without the game even being a success. So if I look at like, do I expect eluvium to be a success?
I think it's a long way off being feature complete enough to attract like web two players. Um,
if you compare it to something like Pell world, which I think it's going to have to
be at least a similar standard to if it wants to gain web two adoption, um, it's, it's missing a
lot still, right? Um, I don't like how token gated the game is with the need to be constantly buying
fuel tokens to access a bunch of the map. I think the auto battling is too complex and it doesn't
compare well to existing auto chess games. I think the art direction is technically stunning, but
aesthetically is like all over the fucking place. So I think it's got a lot to improve upon, which
like maybe it can do. Um, but it's a tough sell for me personally.
Alrighty, some homies jumping in the comments. AK says alluvium was my first big bag and is
therefore going to be a fucking banger. So there's some solid advice. DelTeco says spark really has
his finger on the pulse agree completely on alluvium. Jerry, I'm sending it to you next.
Yeah, spark. I always love spark when he starts going in on things because he crushes it and he's
very pragmatic and he's very, you know, responsible. He says I'm not going to be any of those things,
right? I'm going to speak from the heart here. And what he says is absolutely correct. There's
no catalyst left other than deliver the game, which is the thing that that team is just going
to be the worst at, right? They're a web three team that is a first time shot on goal for them.
And I don't think any of us when we look at the game, if we were to take NFTs and web3 away from
it, think that this team could succeed as a gaming studio. That's self publishing, right? So when you
don't have the other things that Yeah, I mean, it's great that AK made a bag, right? But are the,
you know, 10 million people they want to, to attract? Can they do that? And, and I don't think
so. And can they do that with, and everybody I've met, I tweeted about alluvium and power world
similarities a couple weeks ago, every alluvium fanboy in the world came and hit my mentions up
and criticized me saying they were different games. They're very fucking similar games and power
world, you're not going to beat power world at what power world's wanting to do, right? Especially
with everything that aluminum is going to have working against it. So it's pretty, it's, you know,
it looks good. That's great. But I still think alluvium internally has an identity crisis. And
they don't know what they want to be. And they've tried to be so many different things that they're
gonna end up being nothing. And I know I'm gonna get a bunch of mad people in my mentions again
for saying that. But it's one of the team I mean, if I was putting new capital into and I do I am
alluvium is so low on my list. I think they're just one step above, you know, the sandbox and
decentralized lands of last cycle. Wow, I got to give a shout out to AE in the comments. So he says
keeping my attendance streak since alpha wolves number one, dude, that's awesome. I love it.
Peyton, nobody. Yeah, I was gonna just go back to the initial question. I think alluvium will still
perform well. To spark C's point, they still have a lot of mindshare. And I don't really doubt
Kieran for trying to pump at all. So I do think that like it will do fairly well comparatively
to the overall market just because retail hasn't really returned back. So once they return back,
they're probably like, Oh, alluvium, I recognize that. And so they will kind of go in and purchase
it. And it'll probably do fairly well, when it comes to like the game and the catalyst left.
And that's one of those things that me and spark C, and even with Huzzopedia, whenever he joins us,
we do talk about in terms of like x's is like, what do you do you think that you should bet on
alluvium versus another token that will do a fair amount, right? Like, you know, parallel has been
repping. But like, is there other specific gaming tokens that are going to be out here that will
probably take the mindshare of the space at some time, with also retail specific coming in. So
that's what I'll think is like, I don't think it will do bad. I think it's like, Jerry said,
like sandbox into central land, I think it's very high up higher than decentralized in sandbox,
especially Fortnite, just literally eating everyone's lunch, I think sandbox into central
land isn't going to do as perform as well. But that's just my thoughts.
AK joined us from the crowd. What's up, my fellow wolf?
Oh, Jerry, I just want to say, if you think I'm not down bad on alluvium, you are fucking insane.
Sorry, bro. I did I said it all for you, then steps, I think is the only person I know who's
who's up big, but he's somehow gotten the seed or something insane. But yeah, don't don't buy alluvium.
And I think that's a case alpha non fungible Taylor in the audience, as alluvium trailer
seemed kind of underwhelming, to be honest, the land feels so expansive, but almost to its
detriment, I think I saw a Jonah tweet, actually, that was along those same lines. And then yap
says they don't like the way that alluvium looks, I can't force myself to play it, which is
interesting, because it's beautiful. But this seems to be something that's a little bit off
putting to people. Anyway, we move on. Thanks for jumping into that one, boys. Persona mint
expectations. I'm ready to hear what you guys think. We don't know what the price or the supply
is. I think Peyton said that there's rumors that might be point to a price and nobody knows what
the supply is, which is not a great sign considering their minting next week that pisses me off. They
seem to have a lot of hype on social media, though. It's basically the most hype thing I've
seen since overworld as far as web three gaming goes. So I'm curious where you guys see the floor
potentially being at after this mint, but it is hard to make an assumption based on literally no
details. Peyton, over to you. Yeah, I think there's definitely rumors of point two, but then there's
also definitely rumors because of exterior that they're going to do the auction crap that a lot
of us hate. But we'll see what happens when it comes to it. In terms of mint expectations,
I think it's going to cook. There's a lot of people that are, you know, grill posted about it,
Crypto Gorilla, you know, it's taps both industries, which is the NFT market as well as
the gaming market. So I think it's going to do fairly well. I think like point two,
if it mints at point two, I think, you know, it'd be five acts like one, eighth to two,
range very much so. I think it just like looks really good. And I think they tapped into a
nostalgic type of anime vibe where a lot of the demographic of crypto Twitter actually comes
from that specific year group of watching that type of stuff. Inuyasha, my sister watched
Inuyasha, but then got me into like, well, she watched Inuyasha and Sailor Moon, but then I
watched like Kenshi as well as Yu Yu Hakusho. And just a lot of those specific animes that we all
grew up on that made us fall in love with animes, they actually nailed it and came like, I don't
know why no one's like done it before, but it's the first art style that actually did it. So I
think they did a fantastic job with the art. Absolutely killed it. So I think it's going to
cook for sure. It's not about the art, Peyton, give me your freaking floor price prediction.
I did. I gave it to you. We're out in one to two each. All right. Sparky.
Yeah, so I can't speak from any personal anime experience as someone that struggles mildly to
get into it. One of the few people in web three from what I gather. But I think persona is, yeah,
it's probably the most, I mean, it is the most hyped upcoming mint. I think an important
distinction here is that it's a PFP mint and it's got a lot of eyes on it outside of gaming
because the gaming link is very tenuous in the messaging. I'm sure a lot of people don't even
realize there's any link to gaming, which Peyton said can definitely be bullish because the wider
NFT space is more likely to get involved. And those guys have been dying for a hyped mint on
ETH in some in some time. So like one thesis I'm playing around with is ETH NFTs have come back to
life a little lately. Now Pudgy has been taking off. Doodles has revived itself. Ethereum as a
whole is looking better due to all the ETF speculation. Blast is supposed to launch this
month, which is going to be good for blur, I think, and good for NFTs on ETH. So an upcoming
ETH NFT run is really not out of the question. And if there is one, you know, just like shiny
new tokens take off, shiny new NFT mints tend to outperform as well. And like what is the latest
hyped ETH PFP mint? Like there hasn't been one. So persona will be that. And I think if we get
that ETH NFT run persona could like do some pretty crazy numbers. I'm not saying that we
will get an ETH NFT run, but it's something to keep in the back of your mind. You know, we don't
know price and supply yet. So price predictions are kind of hard. But I think one ETH is very,
very reasonable and wouldn't shock me at all to see it go above that. So yeah, I'm pretty excited
for it. And Jerry? Yeah, I mean, I love anime, right? Sam can attest to this. I have Naruto
posters in my living room. Dude, what? I think it looks like you can go, baby. Let's freaking know,
Jay. I have multiple. I mean, Shigemaru. But yeah, so this is a gaming PFT mint, right? I just,
what I don't love is that like their persona is also a fucking giant franchise on the PlayStation.
You know what I mean? This is the worst name of all time for a gaming related NFT. So that kind
of concerns me a little bit. But I mean, I, you know, I'm a sucker for the art here. This is
told I am the guy that Peyton was just talking about. So yeah, this is, you know, one or two
E, you know, but this is this is AK makes his alluvium money back here. That's hilarious.
Yeah, in the comments says I have a strong feeling that it's going to be a 10k supply.
I would ape for that 10k supply if I were a founder. All right, yeah, that might be true.
Unfortunately, Katie Drake, Betner also says, ETH PFPs in the upcoming meta,
dot dot dot you don't say not a surprise there, I guess.
Absolutely. Am I good to talk now? I feel like I muted my bad muted myself. I was screaming at
the room, although myself, Peyton, your hand is up. Appreciate you. When it comes to the you said
something, Jerry, about the gaming, we did a builder's call with Unagi, who's done persona.
And they come from like Ubisoft, they come from like mobile. So the two co-founders were studio
managers at Ubisoft that worked on like a Tom Clancy specific mobile title. And yeah, it is
really weird. But whenever I asked him, like, you know, why are you guys doing persona? Because like,
they have to like fantasy leagues as well as a white label service, a white label business B2B
specific service that like really leases out their fantasy football, like specific tech stack
on Binance chain. They've been building since 2021 and actually revenue positive, which is like really
cool to see that. But it's funny that like whenever I asked them, like, you know, why are you guys
doing persona? Like, it seems like, you know, why don't you guys just focus on like the B2B service
or fantasy? And they're just like, we just really want to be part of like the NFT ecosystem. So when
it comes to like, you know, the persona type of PlayStation brand and stuff, like, I think they're
really just wanting to go for more NFTs that have some type of utility into their ecosystem for
Unagi. I think it's like Nagi token or something. So I don't actually I think it's really they want
to be part of NFTs and NFT culture, more than anything, Jerry, I don't even think they like,
yeah, it's gonna have some tie into games. But I really do think that they believe in the NFTs.
Okay, well, maybe, maybe, I don't know, Yellow Flag, maybe for me, but I'm listening, you know,
I can be swayed by price. Yeah, I feel you on that one. Yellow Flag for me as well. We move on,
though. AI Arena, Pixels and Nifty Island, three play the airdrop campaigns going on right now.
Pixels and Nifty Island obviously share some similarities kind of party game formats, casual
game modes, etc. But AI Arena is obviously extremely different, maybe couldn't possibly be
more different. What are your expectations of these airdrops? And if you could only pick one
to get involved in, which would be the one that you picked to get involved in? I'll send it to
Spark first. Yeah, so I mean, Pixels has Binance. I know there's been like some fog from their
community over the airdrop and now about the stingy token quests the game is putting out,
which is a good example, by the way, of what happens when you build your community around
play to earn players and then transition into something more sustainable and Axie's
facing a similar issue. But despite all that fun, it has Binance. And those who know of my
overworld thesis, which I'm predicting launches on Binance, know that in my opinion, launching on
Binance solves everything. All the fun and negative sentiment don't really matter in the
short term anyway. The people who will be trading on Binance literally will not even know that
Pixel is the token for a game, let alone how their community is feeling. So I think the Pixel
airdropper is going to perform just fine. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see it hit like
200 mil circulating market cap. I know we're always talking in FTV, but the FTV really depends on
how many tokens they're launching at once. But I think like 200 mil circulating is very achievable
for them. Nifty, I haven't been following as closely to be honest, it seems to have done some
really good work via like organic distribution and hype, you know, shout outs to Jonah and his real
agency. But I'd have to defer to others on its eventual success. In terms of AI Arena disclosure,
like I'm running a team for them, I'm like heavily involved in the Play to Air Drop campaign.
I think AI Arena will be easily the best performing of these three for the people that
put in the time and effort. So it's a skill based rewards Air Drop, it's not and it's not an easy
game to master like at all. And because of that, there's going to be way less competition for the
Air Drop. So that's the benefit of AI Arena. I think people are drastically underestimating
how successful the token will be. It's a paradigm back to game that raised an evaluation like 95%
higher than most crypto games. So I think AI Arena is would be my pick for the people that
want to put in a bunch of effort. If you're sort of looking for like min maxing like time and effort,
could be a different situation depends really upon. Yeah, it depends on a few different things.
But I think for those that want to put in time and effort, that would be my pick.
Hating your thoughts.
Yeah, I think pixels, I don't know too much about it. But similar to what SparkC said about
Binance, that's great. I think Nifty Island, if you're going to be getting into and leaning
heavily into UGC, and then getting people to play, I think it's a really good opportunity
for you to do so. And I think it's extremely smart for like, Nifty Island to use a token Air
Drop to start populating maps for the web to demographic to come in. So I think there's a lot
of incentive there for people to come in and make really awesome maps. I think I saw Spike make
like a Halo 1 map. And I was like, dude, that's frickin sick. And I wanted to play it. So a lot
of cool opportunities for Nifty Island. So if you're into UGC, if you're into that specific stuff,
and that's what's great about like a lot of this play to Air Drop campaigns now, right? It's like
the amount of things that you can do to play and earn is really cool. And then thirdly, with AI
Arena, I'm on TeamBribe, which SparkC's, it is very hard. I will say this too, like I think the,
to SparkC's point, maybe like downplaying it a little bit in terms of skill based thing, I'm
playing it. And like learning the AI mechanisms and everything like that is very tough to do. So
you really have to be kind of like a tech enthusiast to be able to like really push past
some of the things if you really want to get good at the high level of things.
Also from from people I hear to that they struggle with it, I only use a simple model.
But still, I enjoy it because I feel like I'm learning machine learning, which is really cool
to me to play a game, learn and also earn that hits like the perfect sweet spot for me. So if you
like that type of thing, I would pick AI Arena. But that's my breakdown of all three. Don't know
too much about pixels though. So sorry for not being able to comment on it. Yeah, no worries,
man. I'll also add if you haven't gotten good at Smash Bros. ever in your life, it also is kind of
hard. Like you might kind of know how do you want to train your model but not be able to execute
the pattern of buttons in the order that you need to hit them because you just suck at games like I
do. So it is quite a learning curve over there. Jonah over to you, man. Yeah, just listening to
some of the potential farms. And I've looked at a number of tokens. I think AI Arena is interesting.
My only concern is that they have the paradigm label, which historically, it's like shoots and
ladders, it goes up very quickly, and then just, you know, just smashes to the ground. Mainly
because not because the game itself, but because of paradigms past projects. So whenever a DeFi
trader is like, Oh, it's paradigm backed, okay, I know what I'm doing here, right? It has like a
different label to it. So I think the game is really cool. And I think some people make a lot
of money on it. But I do have concerns. Hauntown didn't want to appreciate this. But I don't,
I'm a little nervous about this pixels drop. Personally, I mean, for me, it's not my kind
of game. Of course, it's not about the game. I will say that it's heavily run and supported
and financed back. So of course, it's going to moon. I just don't know what the long tail
that's going to be, to be fair, any of these tokens, I think prime prime token, if you're
going to look in AI bet is still a very interesting position, because the card game is already out,
but the actual AI colony game isn't. And parallel has a lot of big money in it that is waiting for
that sort of narrative. And I think with this new AI stuff that came out today, they'll like find
some time to bring it back up into the zeitgeist again. And every single exchange is very
comfortable with prime, because it's like, it's a game that very intellectual people like. And so
it actually fits the bill for what they're looking for. So I wouldn't fade prime. And there's a number
of other tokens I'm looking at, of course, I'm biased. And if the island island was a client,
I think the island token could do well. We'll see, I just won't say more on it, because I think I'll
be biased. Peyton got the hand up next. I just have a follow up question for Jonah. You said,
you know, prime token, which I think we've we've mentioned quite a bit on on the show before,
when it comes to there's prime token, and then there's also the also highly leveraged bet,
I guess, for the avatars is something that you're looking at Jonah, the avatars as well,
or are you just pretty much de risking and just going straight? I still have my avatar. And again,
so we've entered a point in the industry where the only reason to have an NFT is it's basically a
preorder for a token. It's like a GameStop preorder. So you get the NFT if you like the identity,
but you don't hold it. Unless one, it really is your identity or two, you're waiting for the
preorder. And I would not put it past them. I have no insider information on this that the avatars
could be used as nodes themselves for colony where the amount of avatars you hold may like unlock
like bonuses that could give you prime would be my guess I still have, I still have some avatars.
That's just my thought there generally. And then, for me, I'm looking at like general ecosystem
positions. Because I think like a new l one, or even like other l twos will reap the benefits of
something that does like a lot of transactions on chain. In terms of gamble fi, I'm looking at
shuffle. Because shuffle is these executives are former executives at stake.com, the token is not
out yet. And the way they're doing their tokens is pretty interesting. And yeah, like they have
direct communication with stake.com, like that, not that they'll be acquired by them, but that like,
they know the business very well. And I think it's, it's pretty obvious that gambling, right,
if you look at rollbit, you know, rollbit has a lot of users, I wouldn't be surprised if shuffle,
you know, with the token created a lot of hype. So I'm trying to figure out that one last one that
I'm like, opining on, like, I'm not sure if I want to do it. Although I really like the team is high
chain nodes. nodes always are interesting to me because of the payouts. I was going through the
payout scaling. And the only thing that makes me nervous is the amount of nodes while while having
a lot of nodes is good for decentralization, it does make me nervous about the structure, like how
it works. But I do like the fact that there is easy to access at a point one, each price nodes and
then five, eighth price nodes that have different payouts. My only concern with all of these,
which is good for my business, but bad for everyone else is that there are so many publishers
that need games, and they can't find any games, and they're willing to pay a crazy amount of
money for games that it could be interesting because high chain has their own games, I just
see so many publishers without a game looking for a game. And if I told you how much they were
willing to like, pay scouts for it, which we don't get we don't, we don't do that sort of work,
we, we help a client, we don't do scouting, it's kind of ridiculous.
I'm going to send it over to Jerry, and then we're going to move on to find out why the hell
spark see has 5% gaming tokens and 55% NFTs. Jerry.
Yeah, because he's a madman. And I was actually gonna say, before you even said that, I take most
of my trading advice from spark see, so I might have to get somebody new in the roster.
You know, I will be quick here, I think pixels. I think the Bronin ecosystem is just going to
dump those tokens, like right away. So I think it's just not like an immediate term thing. It's
kind of how I view pixels. Island, the island token, I feel like I'm too late for it, because
I haven't really like done anything on it yet. So Jonah, maybe I'm wrong. Tell me if so. And then
maybe I'll dive into it. I feel like I missed it. As someone who represents people, I'm not
allowed to talk about it, because it's not my token. Okay, but I will tell you that we did
sign a new client this week. Outside of Mystery Society, because disclosure, Chris is also a
client. Chris, where they will have a token, this other group in q3. So I think you're going to see
more gaming tokens are not going to stop. Yeah, it's fair. And a arena I see as like being this
game that has the ability to like, monetize people at like real extreme scale, I think AI arena is
going to I don't really know how I see the like, the amount of people that will play it. But I can
see it being a game that everybody who does play it just wants to dump money into it and wants to
keep like, upgrading and buying new dudes. And you know, my guy looks like a tweaker. So I have to
buy a new one. So I'll have I mean, maybe that's bad. But uh, you know, so yeah, I think a arena
is gonna do well. I didn't make it on the spark season team in time. So you know, I'm a little sad
about that. But yeah, every night see fucking printing doing super well. Chris, are you there,
man? We use a hand system here. Are you on PC? Yeah, I'm here. Okay. He's locked in waiting for
his moment to shine. But first, we got to find out why the hell spark see has over 10 times as many
gaming NFTs than he does coins. Yeah, I mean, look, it wasn't originally planned this way.
I started with like, maybe 15% of my portfolio being gaming NFTs at the end of the bear.
And look, a curious thing happened, which was every single one of them fucking gigapumped.
So like, my favor born NFTs are up like nearly 10x in the past few months. And when that happens,
you know, the portfolio allocation, it readjusts itself without you doing anything. So well,
that's half of it that my long term gaming NFTs have been outperforming. And they are long term
plays for me. So I've sold like, less than 5% of them. You know, the other side of it is,
I like to live right along the risk curve. Even prime, which I think is, I think is,
again, not financial advice, in my opinion, it's one of the safest bets for like a 10x in gaming,
I think parallel colony has the single best narrative in all of gaming. But it's already
at like close to 400 mil, it's definitely over 300 mil last I checked. And in a bull run,
I'm honestly looking for more than 10x as myself, which is not something I'd recommend everyone to
do. But as someone that's looking for big wins and outperformance, you know, while still investing
in like fundamentally promising gaming projects rather than like absolute shit coins, at least
for my long term plays, I like dabbling in shit coins short term. So if you're looking for that,
many of the best gaming projects don't have tokens yet, in my opinion. And many of those NFT
collections are super undervalued compared to tokens. Like Fableborn, that project that I just
said has done a 10x for me, its market cap is still barely over a single million. Infinigods,
similar. So you're just not getting that risk reward from gaming coins right now, in my opinion,
which is not at all saying that gaming coins that are out, some of them won't do huge numbers,
they will just I think the NFTs will do even bigger numbers or have the capacity to if you
pick the right ones. I don't think every gaming NFT will do that. So yeah, and look, most of my
NFTs give me access to the token airdrop anyway, like Jonah said, it's like a pre order. So like
naturally, I'll be segwaying into tokens. I expect that halfway through the bull. I'll have a hell
of a lot more gaming tokens as a percentage of my portfolio than I do right now. But yeah,
that's the explanation. Quick question. Are you convinced?
I was gonna ask real quick, does Fableborn have a token out yet?
No, no token. Oh, good call then. I actually really I played their game. I think their game
is great. And I think Fableborn is what Mavia wants to be from a gameplay perspective. I can't
speak from a bowl bowl like meme, you know, DJ perspective. But in terms of gameplay,
I think the game is really good. Yeah, I think Mavia will be good for Fableborn its success in that
people look at the Clash of Clans thing and they go like there's base building in Fableborn as well.
But Fableborn is obviously so much more than like a derivative of Clash of Clans. So much better.
Yeah, 100%. It can it can leverage that connection for the narrative. And then the actual game is
like, far, far different. So yeah, bullish on Fableborn.
Yeah, Sam, I'm, I'm a little convinced, but I'm also a little troubled that I've put my financial
future in the advice of somebody who I could sum up his thesis in four words, what had happened was
Binance. That's the summary of most of these pieces.
I don't believe, oh, sorry, I was gonna say, like, I don't believe in selling your winners,
just so that you can readjust your portfolio to be in the right proportions. So I'm a fan of letting
your winners run. That's that's fair. And Sam introduced me to this other guy, David Sacks,
and he famously says he got to let your winners ride. There you go, Sam, you'll be happy.
Did I introduce you to the All In podcast? All right. Well, yeah, in the audience, we've
got Gway saying he loves Spark C's authoritative, but kind of humble brag about his bag. Daltetko
says my problem with NFTs is that you can only, you can truly only have a couple, then liquidity
becomes an issue. Yap says actually Daltetko said, tell that to grail who dumped 30th of army or
60th of army of fortune. Yap says y'all are missing the point on the plate of airdrop stuff.
AI arena will be so fucking fun to watch in bed on. And this is a big deal. I agree, man. Let's
give a synergy land box to Yap and a synergy land box to Daltetko. And then I got one more
export again, FT, whoever asks the best question about mystery society in the upcoming AMA,
we'll get that that export Freeman's for the Prometheus chest plate. But first, Spark,
see, I got to know your guild fi thesis. I know you had a couple of you had a post about this at
like the end of 2023. You recently quote tweeted it and said, you know, you're bringing it back
from the dead. Or I mean, it was kind of another humble brag about how well it's been performing,
but you still believe in our holding on site, eh? Yeah, I mean, my thesis on Guildfire, which yeah,
I tweeted and so I think it'll be my best performing gaming token of the next few months.
Obviously, that doesn't look quite as much of a call considering I have very few gaming tokens.
But I mean, I have very few gaming tokens, because I don't expect a lot of them to outperform
my other bags, even though I expect them to do well. So Guildfire, it's, you know, it's much like
YGG and merit circle in terms of how it's perceived or how it was. It's holds a lot of
gaming assets has scholars invest in seed rounds, etc, etc. You know, the drill. That was what all
the guilds were last cycle. And a lot of them are starting to rebrand merit circle rebranded to beam
pivoted to infrastructure did a 10x in a matter of months, they're now sitting at like 1.5 billion
market cap. So Guildfire is pivoting into a whole bunch of shit, including infra. If I read off one
of the tweets from their founder, they've got upcoming products, they've got an infrastructure
player network. They've got a meta game where we turn everyone's life into an RPG. They're becoming
a publisher, particularly for games in the SEA region. They've got an NFT storytelling battle pass
for some universe with play to reward models with promise token drops. Their treasury is currently
worth more than their market cap. So we don't have details on like a whole bunch of that stuff. This
isn't me saying that Guildfire is going to succeed at all these things and be a huge long term play.
Like we just we don't know enough about it. But if merit circle can 10x off their pivot, and Guildfire
currently is one 10th of the market cap of beam, I'm not saying they're going to pull a beam and
reach that market cap. But I think there's an awful lot of repricing to do when they start
actually announcing and pushing all these things. Like there's just one tweet from the founder like
a couple months ago, they've not been pushing any of this stuff. And they're going to start doing so
soon. So I think for the next few months, it's a good play. And that's, that's why I'm invested in it.
Well said, appreciate that insight. And with that, we're going to transition to talking about
mystery society with none other than the founder Chris. Chris, first off, man, can you just
introduce us to mystery society? Give us a brief overview of the project if we're not super familiar
with it. Yeah. So the game is a social deduction game, kind of like among us, but with a clue vibe.
I've always been a big fan of clue and always wondered why someone hadn't made like the
detective, you know, the the murder mystery mansion kind of version of of among us. So that
was one of the original things that got me excited about making the game. But, you know, one of the
other things is that I think that with three really is lacking super casual games and very social
games that can reach really huge scale. And a lot of what I did at Disney and Universal when I was
there was look at, you know, look at our IP and then try to, you know, figure out how to position
it for, you know, in different genres in gaming. So I've just done, you know, hours and hours and
hours of App Store analysis and stuff like that. And one of the things that I realized is that
over the years is, you know, casual games tend to, you know, have a lot of benefits. I mean, they
can reach much broader audiences, you know, like over a billion people have played among us.
For example, you know, it's very hard to teach people how to play new games. So anytime you can
lean into a genre that's very familiar and then bring a new twist to it, you're, you know, you're
generally in a better position than trying to teach people, you know, gameplay from whole cloth.
You know, the other thing about social deduction games is that when people you when people play
them, they play them with friends, right? So they're not just bringing in, you know, you're not just
acquiring users on a one to one basis, but you're acquiring friend groups, you know, you're
acquiring five people at a time, 10 people at a time. And that's why those games get such enormous
install leverage. So, you know, when I when I looked at, you know, I've been in web three for,
you know, three years now. And, you know, as I was thinking about kind of what I wanted to do
next in web three, you know, I really wanted to, you know, focus on a game that I thought could,
you know, could meet the promise of actually bringing normies into the ecosystem and mainstreaming
web three. And, and I think that this game has a lot of those characteristics.
That's a great answer. And when you look around at those other different social deduction games
that are currently in the market, what do you think is missing from those that maybe mystery
society is able to add? Well, you know, among us is a great game, right? It's it's kind of one of
those generational games. It's like, you know, it's like Club Pigment or Minecraft, or, you know,
one of those kind of things that like it's it's I mean, it's a massive game and it's, and it's,
and it's, you know, it's not going anywhere. However, you know, one of the things that I've
always learned is that whenever you have a huge game like that, I mean, I'll compare it to
something like Candy Crush, right? What candy, you know, there were there are games that are top
grossing games that make $100 million or more that basically monetize the churn of of Candy
Crush. Meaning, you know, Candy Crush got so big that it was basically everybody who owned a phone,
right? That that that just people who got bored with that game, but were looking to play a game
that was similar, the number of people that were looking for something like that was massive.
And anytime you have a huge game that blows up, it kind of blows up a genre like this,
you have that kind of opportunity to draft off the whole genre. But you know, among us is,
you know, it was built by a very small indie team, you know, they've done a great job, but
they're not like a, what I would call live operations oriented team, like they don't have
that free to play live operation system experience around events and content and stuff that allows
you to really kind of grow a, you know, that all the techniques that you use to grow a free to play
game over time. You know, that but despite that, among us has like really great retention, you know,
because it's just really sticky to play with your friends. So, you know, if you look, so you know,
it's a great game, but it but the the amount of content and freshness that they bring into the
game is pretty slow, right? If you and then goose goose duck is another very successful social
deduction game that's come out. And what those guys did is they basically looked at like the
mod community for among us and took all the, you know, best ideas from the mod community and
integrated those into their game. But again, it's another game that doesn't really do a great job
of like live operations there. You know, they're much more, you know, focused around kind of,
you know, doing, you know, giving you a lot more ways to play and a lot more variety in your
gameplay. So the, you know, my thesis was take the things that work in Among Us and goose goose duck
and, you know, add to it the collecting and, you know, the collecting style gameplay that,
you know, it just is a great fit with NFTs, but also, you know, something that I have a lot of
experience with in my in my past, because most of the games that I've done are character collectors
of one description or another. You know, I did a game called Disney Emoji Blitz that's made over
$200 million and was bought by Jam City. You know, I did I did a game called Funko Pop Blitz
at Network. I did a game called Jurassic World Alive at Universal that's done probably over
$150 million. So, you know, and all of those are collection, basically collection metas. So,
you know, I wanted to bring the things I know about collection metas that, you know, really kind of,
you know, overlaps very well with NFTs and combine that with the minute to minute of social
deduction. And then, you know, over the long term, we really want to get into UGC. It's not something
that we have now, but over the long term, we want to get into UGC and, you know, allow modding
directly in the game and allow people who participate in the UGC, who are creators on
the UGC side of the game to benefit when people play in their maps. So, you know, I see a real
opportunity to kind of create a thriving ecosystem around the core gameplay loop of social deduction
like this and kind of, you know, bring the Web3-ness to I think that Web3 plus this genre can
can be, you know, can just unlock a lot of potential.
Well said. I'm going to send it over to SparkC for the next one.
Yeah. So, Chris, a lot of veterans from traditional gaming have entered Web3 and
really struggled to understand the space and the people in it and wrapped their heads around it.
What was your learning experience like when you first got into crypto?
Well, the way I got started was, you know, just doing NFTs, you know, so I was, you know,
don't hold it against me, but I was in Recur. I wasn't a founder, but I was an employee
and an advisor early on, although those guys kind of blew it, which I'm still pissed about. But,
you know, what I was focused on was trying to build gamification around NFT collecting.
And we actually had a really good design team that we put together. And we used to talk about this
that, you know, just sitting there thinking about the because we weren't making games,
we were focused on just making collecting more interesting. It forced me to think a lot about
the mechanics of NFTs themselves and why they work and what makes them interesting.
And that there's a it's a very different mindset from the way that free to play game makers think,
because because they're used to a world where, you know, they were where there's there's no
scarcity. Right. And they don't think atomically, I guess, is a way that that I would put it or
they don't think in terms of tokenization. Right. In Web3, we tend to think about, like, you know,
these individual game pieces or game assets as, you know, as an asset class. Right. And
it's just a completely different mentality around how you think about the stuff in your game.
You know, and you have to design game systems that that are different, that, you know, that
that compensate and and and and lean into the idea that you have things that are scarce and rare.
And you have to have and you also have to have the ability to, you know, create, you know,
new content and fit that into design over over time. So it's just a it's a very different way
of thinking. It's also a very different way of going to market. You know, this whole thing that
we're doing with building in public and going on things like spaces and, you know, that kind of
stuff. I mean, it's just it's just it's not the way that like big publishers operate. You know,
they still are very much in the I would say traditional marketing mode or they're in the
user acquisition mode of, you know, they they, you know, they're very focused on buying, you know,
performance marketing on Facebook or or, you know, or, you know, TikTok or, you know, whatever
platform, but very kind of ad, you know, ad buying focused as opposed to like really community
grassroots, organic support. You know, and I think that I think that a lot of I think that the mind
shift for a lot of traditional game companies is going to be that they're really used to thinking
that first of all, they think community is free. Right. So it's like I make this awesome game and
everyone should just love it and come and appreciate it. And and and, you know, just give
me a lot of like, you know, of course, they're going to make a wiki and of course, they're going
to be active in discord. And of course, they're going to do all this. And I think that, you know,
the the in Web 3, there's a different value equation where, you know, your your your players
are not just, you know, they're not just there to play, but they're but they're they're kind of a
partner in your business. And, you know, they're looking for ways to, you know, make money
themselves. And so, you know, you have to design those types of opportunities into into what you're
doing and what you're thinking about. And it's just a completely different way of interacting
with your audience. And it frankly requires a lot more kind of respect and patience than I think a
lot of traditional game publishers have been used to. Peyton, tag you in. Yeah, Chris, we talked a
little bit about it. First, I want to I want to say, you know, a lot of people probably don't know
what live operations is. You use that term quite a bit, especially within social reduction games,
such as like Among Us and everything like that. So I would love for you to just do a brief like
just kind of intro of like what live operations is and like what value does it actually bring
to bringing your experience of live operations into a social deduction game? Yeah, I'll ask that
question first. And then if we have some time, I'd love to do a follow up as well. Yeah, live
operations is really kind of shorthand for a for a bunch of different techniques that you use in
games to make them kind of living breathing entities, as opposed to the old model of like,
you know, I buy a game for $60 and I play it, you know, from beginning to end, and then it's over.
And then, you know, it collects dust, you know, for some games, it means, you know, continuing
to add levels forever. For some games, it means, you know, for most games, it means events, time
limited events. So, you know, you know, events that last sometimes a day or a week, you know,
sometimes, you know, you know, battle pass events, you know, see or you know, the season model that
you guys are familiar with from Fortnite and other games, you know, that's a form of live operations.
You know, you basically the way you think about it is you're building that when you build a live
operated game, it's more like building it's it's it's not like you're building the the the movie,
it's like you're building the movie set on which the movie is going to happen. And then the live
operating part is making things on that set every day, if that makes sense. And so you have to build
your game with the idea that with the with the ability to go to deploy content very quickly,
to be able to tweak and tune things on the fly, to be able to deploy things without being able
without having to push, you know, a client update, push them, you know, put put push content and events
directly from the wire. And, you know, a lot of people when people play live operated games,
like those games should always be feel alive, it should always feel like, you know, there's
something new to do. And if I don't, and if I don't do it, I'm going to miss out. You know,
there's always some, you know, new reward to chase, there's always, you know, there's always,
there's always, you know, their dynamic kind of environments. And the live operations model,
you know, really in the in the in the West, you know, kind of took off in mobile gaming, and then,
you know, has sort of started to, you know, has has gradually sort of taken over, you know, in
console as well, you know, to the extent that some people, you know, in AAA are kind of starting to
push back on every game being live operated. But, you know, live operations, if you look at free to
play games is it's it's it's all the money, you know, that's made by those games. Like if you were
to take, you know, any of the top grossing games in the mobile space and stop live operating them,
they would go to zero, like, you know, overnight. So, you know, it's basically the formula that
Scopley and, you know, King and Supercell and all these types of guys have built huge, you know,
multi billion dollar businesses off of. And, you know, they're, I often compare like what we're
doing with our game, if you look at, if you look at one of the North Stars, I look at for my game
is is Stumble Guys. So if you look at like Fall Guys and Stumble Guys, if you're familiar with
those two games, you know, Fall Guys was not particularly well live operated. It took them
like multiple months to bring out new seasons, you know, players got bored, they turned out of the
game, you know, and they they that games kind of never recovered because they just never could keep
up with the with the with their audience and their audience got bored and tuned out where, you know,
Stumble Guys was built by a very small group of team of people, but who were very nimble and were
able to, you know, innovate with new courses, new events, new costumes to collect, you know,
constantly new stuff to engage with. And, you know, that game is making over 100 million dollars a
year. So, you know, part of my part of my thesis has been, you know, take take the formula that
worked for for Stumble Guys, which is a, you know, casual, you know, party game and apply it to a
different but also very successful party game genre, which is the social deduction genre.
And if I can do for, you know, basically for social deduction, what Stumble Guys has done for
obstacle courses, then, you know, theoretically, that could be a game at, you know, at an enormous
scale in Web 2, and then you layer on to it all the Web 3 mechanics, and I think it gets even better.
Hey, Chris, I've got one more final question for you. This is coming from the audience. Shout out
to A.K. He's going to win that last Xborg NFT. He asks, do they think their UGC minting slash
rev share tech with maps is going to become commonplace in Web 3 gaming, or is this something
that's unique and really just fits your game in particular?
I think it's going to become commonplace. I don't know that every game will have it or that it'll
make sense for every game, but I think it's one of the use cases that makes the most sense to me
in terms of like, when people say like, why do you need Web 3? Like, I think it is a good proof
point for sort of why you need Web 3 in a game and what it can enable. You know, look, I think the
shift, I think there's a huge generational shift, right? And I think you guys will understand this
when I say this to, you know, people over 40, they look at me with glass-eyed expressions. But,
you know, one of the things I've learned about being in Web 3 is, you know, younger people,
people in their 20s and 30s, you know, they've grown up with this creator model and social media.
And, you know, which also started off as, you know, free, but, you know, turned into an
entrepreneurial enterprise, right? And if you look at studies of like even kids in high school,
like the most aspirational job that you could be as like a YouTuber or TikToker or whatever,
like all these kids want to, you know, they want to earn off of making content. And
increasingly as gamers, you know, younger gamers are bringing those expectations into games as
well. And so you're seeing it, you know, on places like Roblox, you're seeing it on places like Fortnite,
you know, and as a game maker, it allows me to change the way that I think about what we do,
because I can keep a small team of people instead of having to hire like a massive studio
of, you know, hundreds of people, lots of overhead and lots of costs, you know, keep the team small
and, you know, and enable and create tools that enable my audience to be creative and create
content within our framework. And then the second thing that allows you to do is instead of giving
you know, all your money, I mean, I like to point out, like, you know, with, you know,
like Monopoly Go, which was one of the biggest breakthroughs last year in mobile, you know,
the word on the street is, you know, that game made a billion dollars last year, but they spend
a billion five in marketing. And so, you know, this is how much, you know, scaled mobile games
companies spend on marketing to, you know, to acquire users and to acquire whales. So,
you know, my thing is like, there's got to be a better way. And I think the better way is,
if you're able to, you know, if you're able to create tools and allow your players to create
content within your game, and they're able to monetize when they do that, but you're also
benefiting from, you know, from that monetization. And you're, you know, and they're able to engage
their communities, then you can kind of circumvent a lot of this model of like, traditional, you know,
traditional user performance marketing, you know, user acquisition, and, you know, rely on your
audience to, you know, a more authentic model of influencers and, or KOLs or whatever you want to
call them creators, engaging their, you know, their audience and keeping them entertained in
the form of your game, in the same way that you guys are making, we're all making content right
now on to on x, right. And so that model just seems really intuitive to me. And, you know,
we sort of can use these, you know, web three enabled economies to, you know, hand handle to,
to, you know, administer that value transfer. And, you know, I just think if we figure this,
this, this whole equation out, which is like, it's very easy to articulate and very hard to do.
But you know, if we could figure this out, it's going to change the relationship that I think
gamers have with game makers, the way games are published, the way they're marketed, the way
they're live operated, you know, it's going to be kind of a different world and hopefully a better
one. Appreciate that thorough answer, man. It's been wonderful getting to see some of your insights.
It's clearly you've thought about these things a lot, which is really a lot of the time all that
we ask for on the degenerate side of things is just that conscious decisions are being made with
a lot of thought because clearly nobody has figured it out completely. But to know that they're making
an educated gamble on what they believe is the correct thing to do is, is a wonderful step in
the right direction. So huge. Thank you, Chris, for joining us on alpha wolves. Jonah, thanks so
much for coming up from the audience. A.K. as well. Congrats on that export whitelist. A.K.
Peyton, spark seed, Jerry, the usual suspects appreciate each and all of you guys that will
be back same time, same place next week. Well, I won't be because I'm going to be in Hawaii,
but Peyton will be doing it. Let's go, baby. You know, arguably the better host here. So,
you know, we'll make no, no, no. He does you right next week. Go to appreciate you guys.
Appreciate you guys. Thanks, Chris. Thanks, everyone. You're the man, Chris.