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Amazon Earnings | E-Commerce | China talk with Krane Shares
Recorded: Feb. 5, 2026 Duration: 2:40:43Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. so
what is up everybody i was just sending out a couple invites there it should be a very fantastic
interesting stocks on spaces coming up here i appreciate you all for joining us today i still
need to change the title i still need to do a couple stuff here on my end but uh let's let's
hop right into it the stock market is down it is. There are a couple pockets of green.
If you own a couple individual stocks, my guess is you do have one or two, maybe three that are green, but the majority are red and your portfolio is probably down.
It's a rough day out there.
Crypto.
Crypto is a very talked about sector, watch sector.
You guys know I am exposed to it.
I am exposed to it. That is one that is hitting some lows. Ethereum under 2K, Bitcoin got to 65K,
That is one that is hitting some lows.
Ethereum under 2K.
started with a 65. That's the first number on Bitcoin. So that is definitely where the
center of the sell-off is, we could say. But overall, the stock market is moving a little
bit lower. We do have earnings coming up after the close day. It is an earnings day.
We have Amazon reporting earnings. We have MicroStrategy reporting earnings. I don't know what they're going to say, but they are going to say it today. Reddit, Roblox, Sportinet,
Affirm, CleanSpark, Atlassian, Bloom Energy, Monolithic Power. So we have the big dog on the
day. We have Amazon earnings. Those numbers should be out right around 4.01, 2.00, 3.00 PM Eastern,
amazon earnings those numbers should be out right around 4 0 1 2 3 p.m eastern pretty close to the
market finishing for the day and then um we have a lot all the other ones should be a little bit
after that but amazon is the big dog and then we got a couple fin twit favorites on there i imagine
iran is going to be a large mover uh i did see the post from our friends over at leverage shares they were talking about their 2x uh iran
etf i reg which i'm sure uh is going to be a quite the wild mover coming out of this earnings oh
hopefully up for the shareholders but it's literally down 16 so far today i reg so iran is
is definitely going to be struggling here this etf trades 50,000 shares a day. I'm not very much surprised on that. People enjoy trading IREN. That ETF was IREG. I got a little distracted there.
Earnings season is here. We got IREN earnings, Roblox, that's not super washed, Fortinet,
Affirm, a few others. So we do have a nice stocks on spaces coming in front of us.
I will focus in on a couple news stories here just read
them briefly and then obviously as we go throughout we'll circle back in on a few of them it wasn't the
busiest of news days earnings is still the conversation going on right now there's a few
this morning shell bristol myers peloton let me actually switch it over to this way. Shell with a double miss.
Estee Lauder missed on revenue.
Peloton missed both EPS and revenue.
Looks like Peloton stock is down 30% today.
Keton getting hit hard following its earnings.
That was a little bit from the earnings this morning.
Obviously, Google was the stock that was the earnings calendar,
an earnings name from yesterday. Quite the whirlwind we have going on there. A little bit from the earnings this morning. Obviously, Google was the stock that was the earnings calendar,
an earnings name from yesterday.
Quite the whirlwind we have going on there.
We'll talk a little bit about the numbers going forward.
Monitiv, I see it down below.
Always love to have you up here.
Talk some earnings, talk some numbers.
See Amid just joining us too.
Love to hear the thoughts on earnings season.
Google came out, solid numbers. They came in and said they expect to spend $180 billion on CapEx over the next year.
That was above expectations of $120, $30 billion, something like that.
So Google is going to be spending pretty big on CapEx.
I did see our friend Jennifer Schoenberger.
She is over at Yahoo Finance.
She is in the room asking Fed Chair Powell a question all the time.
But she was pointing out that under
the new One Big Beautiful Bill, that you can write off all of your spend on CapEx. So maybe
that has a little bit of part to do with this, bringing down those tax bills, investing more
in CapEx. There are some depreciation cycles to it. But I'm sure that has something to do with
this. Google, solid numbers coming in above expectations. I believe they were the one who reported more than $400 billion in revenue in a year for
the first time.
Shout out to Google on that one.
Stock was down as much as 6%, 7% in this pre-market.
I saw it down a little bit more overnight.
I think I might've gotten a screenshot of it down 10%.
It is now down just 1%.
So Google has been able to claw back a lot of the losses
that it was experiencing a little bit earlier in the day um i'm gonna start with a little bit of a
different route monotiv i always like to hear your thoughts on google uh obviously you're up here
last night i believe and talking through it so maybe if you have any extra thoughts from here
i'd love to go over to hamid and then uh we'll go from there obviously on these spaces uh we feel free to jump in as a part of the conversation as long as everyone's
not talking over each other we can have a good conversation here make sure as someone says
something smart enjoyable anything like that you can give the speakers a follow uh this is spaces
is a great way to find new people and if you guys have any thoughts questions comments anything like
that throw that in the spaces chat in the bottom right of your screen i will be watching that and i will throw
stuff that way obviously it is a red day in the market i i do see this maybe i even put a little
bit of markets on turmoil in the title we shall see 64 in front of a bitcoin right now buddy
64 it's it's a crazy time out here my individual stock portfolio is definitely down a little bit
it's a number that i uh it's haven't seen in a couple days couple months but it's okay
um yeah bitcoin 64 999 good call what's up monotiv how you doing sir why don't you uh give us some
thoughts here on these google earnings that we had yesterday i wonder if you're watching Amazon as well. Well, what's there to say?
It was solid earnings.
You know, search is still growing 17%, no less.
30, what is that?
30, 38 or 48% growth in cloud.
You know, forget all that.
The problem is it's already run up a lot, right?
So obviously it's going to be difficult to double down and run up some more at over $4 trillion.
So I think it's well-priced here, fully valued, and it's going to probably top a lot here.
There was a lot of positives.
Let's, you know, I think everybody's talked about that. I'll call out a couple of things that I didn't like. One, there is a big debt load that's starting to build
there. It's not a problem for now. They have the free cash flow to comfortably take care of that. The balance sheet is phenomenally
strong. So it's going to be a while before it becomes an issue, but it is starting to pile up.
I think there's well over $40 billion in debt now. I think we added $30-40 billion of debt just this
year, this past year. The other thing that people are not going to like and start talking about
is the fact that they reduced buybacks quite a bit last year from a 60-something billion to
40-something billion. So that's a big reduction. But I actually like that the given that they have been running all this while
for better part of a year now you know why buy back at at close to all-time highs here so so i
think there's better use of that money but uh 180 billion dollars uh there was a lot of questions that were answered too. So roughly half of that, according to the CFO, is for internal use, meaning their cap
expense is typically roughly half for internal use, half for GCP.
So they are growing GCP at rates and at pretty seriously elevated rates right now.
And their margin is over 30% on GCP.
So it makes sense for them to invest there.
Whether $180 billion is the right number, 50% or 100% over last year's number, I don't know.
number? I don't know. We'll find out. What I don't like is this is what they're not saying is
We'll find out.
probably there is some level of panic buying in memory. I think that's probably much of the lift
or at least a part of the lift in CapEx comes from having to contract for memory at much higher prices. I'm guessing here, again, one of the things that Anad pointed out was roughly half the cost of CapEx,
half of the CapEx goes to compute.
The other half goes to long duration assets, which she defined as networking, HVAC,, land, and other things.
So faster depreciating asset, which would be the compute part of it,
is half that money.
And I'm guessing, that's why I'm guessing,
a lot of it is probably the pretty high hike in memory costs.
And especially for those that had not contracted ahead of time,
they're probably going to pay a steep premium.
And I don't know how much Google had, you know, contracted for supply
and how much they have to, you know, find new contracts for.
So anyway, that's Google exceptional balance sheet. I think it's easily the best
balance sheet among mega caps easily. So they can handle this elevated spend for a while,
but it's not unlimited, right? If there's any kind of slowdown in free cash flow,
they'll have to almost instantly put brakes on the CapEx.
Otherwise, it's going to look much worse than it is today, right?
So not worried yet, but it's something worth keeping a watch on.
So that's Google.
As far as overall numbers, right?
I mean, we're doing okay.
Hey, Manitav. It's like, I hear you're saying the $44 billion in debt, but they have $98 billion in cash.
Yeah, that's what I'm saying.
All I'm saying is between dividends and buybacks and spend on CapEx, right?
There's a lot of cash consumption there.
It's not a problem today.
But if you keep adding 30, 40, 50 billion of debt a year,
it becomes a problem very quickly.
I'm not saying there's a problem now.
I'm just saying it bears watching
how much debt pile they add onto the balance sheet
because that gets serviced over time.
Those interest payments get serviced over time and it continuously starts hitting your margins,
right? So that's what I'm saying. It's something to mark down and worth watching. I mean, look at
how quickly the mood soured on Oracle, right? So that was, you know, already a big debt load and quickly became untenable. But
it's not an equivalent story. I'm just saying debt has a tendency to, you know, bring negative
attention. And right now, Google's exemplary balance sheet. But it doesn't take long, you know100 billion in debt over the next two years, maybe it'll look very different.
Anyway, I'm just saying I wouldn't personally add to my position here, but I'm not rushing
I'm not rushing out and selling anything.
out and selling anything.
So 13.5% earnings growth is what we have.
This is updated as of yesterday.
So 13.5% earnings growth and 8.2% revenue growth.
Those are massive numbers still.
So nothing to worry about.
Overall season is going fine. i think the price action on
earnings is a whole different story so i'll leave that to the technical folks to discuss it so
i can add more color if somebody wants me to dig in
thank you monotov and honestly i'm excited to hear your take on amazon as well as we go into
the conversation and a few other names that are reporting. But thank you for that.
I'll just give my quick thoughts beforehand. Right. Look, yeah.
All of the communication services firms have very strong ad market, have called out very strong ad market, You know, obviously Google and Meta,
but also Netflix, right?
So expect excellent numbers from Amazon's,
you know, ad revenue business.
So that part should be solid.
We've had very strong retail numbers
across the board recently.
And that strength has not really, you know, disappeared
for a while. So I assume that the retail business has done just fine, which leaves really AWS,
right? So AWS, I think the street expectation is% to 23% growth.
Anything below that is going to be a huge problem.
Anything above that, I don't know how high it's going to go,
could be very helpful.
AWS is very large.
So 22%, 23% growth is exceptional.
So that's what I would look for.
Thank you, sir.
Thank you, sir.
I hope people stick around with us for the numbers coming
out. All right, let's go over to Hamid next. I wonder if you have any thoughts on what
Mr. Moneta was talking about there. And then just any thoughts on any of these earnings we have
coming up over the next couple of days. I've been watching the portfolio and your page and
the moves you've been making. So I know we have one or two interesting ones
to talk about here.
But any of the major earnings from the last day or two,
once coming up after the close,
interesting for you, Hamid?
Yeah, so at a macro level,
I would say that it's been nice to see
that earnings have continued to be record earnings
for most of the companies.
And we don't seem to
have any kind of economic sort of uncertainty that would be like on the verge of economic
collapse or anything like that. Google's numbers were just a monster beat. When you look at a
company that has $100 billion of revenue in a single quarter, and they were expected to have $104 billion, if I'm not mistaken, but they beat that $104 billion expectation by an additional $10 billion of quarterly revenue. That's roughly a $40 billion company
that they exceeded the expectation
of an already growing revenue number
by roughly $40 billion.
So Google basically added a Netflix
in terms of like a beat.
Just to put it in perspective,
that's how much of a beat that was. The numbers
of Google are just insanely amazing. They had, what did they have? $34 billion of net income,
$24 billion of positive cash flow, despite all the spend on data centers and infrastructure.
So all this concern that some people have, the bears have on capital expenditures and
that these companies are spending way too much money and they're burning up their cash
to do that seems ill-founded because they're still generating extremely positive cash flows while they're doing that from their core business.
So Google's numbers are extremely promising.
They just continue to be encouraging.
Meta had a similar sort of story when they reported Google's growth rate year over year uh in this last quarter was 18 percent
metas was uh something like 25 percent it's these companies are going like accelerating their growth
over the past five years which is just unbelievable to see so um looking let me just
looking i i enjoy the post where it's like here here's how much revenue this company has brought in over the years.
And obviously it's Q4, so we're getting a lot of the annual numbers.
And the numbers are insane.
Just across the board, Google was at like $100 billion or something five years ago, and now we're at $400.
The growth rates have kept up, and the numbers just keep getting bigger and bigger and bigger.
It's pretty wild to see on the Googles, the Amazons, these massive companies. Yeah, absolutely. And it looks like they're not
slowing down on the AI spend. So basically the smartest money in the world from the smartest
companies in the world are expecting to continue to have AI spend at a pretty astronomical rate to the point where everything AI related
is constrained.
You know, whether it's as Elon puts it, you know, the turbine blades to generate electricity
to transformers to take the voltage from one level to another level,
to memory chips, to the AI chips themselves.
Everything is constrained across the board,
across all the companies that are making this stuff.
So it's kind of, you know, all of this is sort of like very positive signs
that, you know, if growth slows down, it's probably going to be as a result of constraints as opposed to the demand for these things, which seems to be insatiable right now.
So I look at sort of like market's reaction, market kind of tends to have a bipolar personality
and you kind of have to like, you know,
like live with a bipolar personality of the market
by not reacting to its bipolar nature.
So, you know, it lashes on to any piece of like negative news
or positive news and, you know, it lashes on to any piece of like negative news or positive news and, you know, either shoots up or shoots down irrationally.
And right now we happen to be in one of those times when it's shooting down and lots of things seem extremely attractive to me.
Micron seems extremely attractive.
I personally am not buying Google, but Meta seems extra attractive.
Their price earnings ratio is kind of hard to ignore.
Robinhood, for a tiny company that is growing super fast and is basically, my expectation is that if we were to fast forward five or ten years from now,
or 10 years from now robin hood is going to be a monster fintech player where where they might be
bigger than goldman sachs or uh some of these other sort of like massive um financial firms
uh this company is now trading at a pe in the 30s um which for such again rapidly growing company
25 forward 25 forward is that what it is now uh first yeah 31 31 trailing 25 forward yeah
it's it's pretty incredible for a company that is growing so fast and is so tiny and is playing in
such a massive market to be trading at such low prices so lots of things seem super attractive
um i i had a lot of cash just a couple of weeks ago.
I've been using up my cash in the past couple of weeks
as I've been making more investments in Micron and Robinhood.
But things definitely look very attractive.
And the bipolar nature of the market might take things down even further
before we kind of start to see the upticks again.
But this is sort of like what you have to live with in terms of as an investor,
sort of like smooth out the expectations and don't be super reactive or take advantage of it
if you're going to be reactive as opposed to trying to sell and get out before things get worse. And I'd like to add as a technical trader, I love the action in Google today. I love that
they've bought it all the way back up. It's almost green. I think that's a really big vote of
confidence, especially in the market we're experiencing right now as Bitcoin hits 63,000.
Listen, I love that report. I didn't find anything I didn't like in that
report last night. When they talked about their CapEx spend, they're doing it because they have
the demand to meet it. They're building out to increase their profits and their revenue and meet
demand. I mean, I had no problems with that. I thought it's sure, you know, basically saying
the AI trade is alive and well
and they're doing they're doing great with it and they have a nice big backlog with their data center
and there was nothing not to like um the only thing that they didn't talk about and apple did
they didn't talk about the details of their relationship with apple other than that one
thing i picked up on it they're now the favorite uh david center provider for apple that's huge for
them that means they're going to be getting a lot of Apple data center work on top of what they're going to be doing with AI for them with Siri.
I agree, guys.
I like that report.
I like Meta's.
And I told you I loved Apple's.
I thought Apple was a great report and it's finally being rewarded.
And I'll tell you again, AMD had a great report.
It's just not the explosive report the market wants from them.
And also...
I don't want to go on Google.
I do want to make this comment on Google real quick.
But a couple of years ago, I sold my Google stock,
which obviously was a mistake.
But I, at that point, didn't have a lot of confidence in Sundar.
And as somebody that changes my mind pretty fluidly,
one thing I'll say about Google is he has done an excellent job this year
like there's no question about it and google has i mean to use one of the terms of the kids use
nowadays google has mogged everyone in ai like they're the only company out of the mag 7 that's
not just dumping billions of dollars into open ai and Anthropic and is doing it on their own.
And is doing it at the highest level, right?
Like their image generation models, their genie model, everything is top of the line.
And they've done it internally.
And they're progressing and developing new features more rapidly than any of the other AI companies.
Like Sundar deserves a round of applause.
Google deserves a round of applause. They've had a hell of a year like i just wanted to say that
because i have been negative on google in the past and negative on sundar in the past but he
deserves props they have shit on everyone else and on the rest of the competition you know what
a hundred billion into an open ai round which you know what also makes it so special is remember
the missteps they had in their first couple
presentations?
Yeah, exactly. Their recovery to relevance
has been extraordinary.
They went from being like,
oh, Google's messing up their AI pitch
to Google is the leader in AI
and it took them six months.
Let me add two little pieces
of color that aren't maybe material
but they just show you that management knows what they're doing.
First of all, they own 7.5% of SpaceX right now, which is not nothing.
But also, people forget that Google has spent the last 25 years indexing every single web page, right?
If you go do research, if you're trying to get some real information from AI and you try to use Anthropic, you try to use ChatGPT, compare that to what you'll get against Google.
Google will be much more, way more thorough, way more comprehensive because they can actually read all these pages and they have all this sitting there that they've been exploring for 25 years.
Whereas ChatGPT will say, I can't read that.
So they've just got so
many little things that they're doing better than a lot of these other companies. And I think you're
seeing it not only in the fundamentals, but you're also seeing the price action.
Brian, don't forget they own just under 15% of Anthropic.
There you go.
And just wanted to call out, since we're talking numbers, the cloud backlog, this is with zero open AI in the backlog, right?
Cloud backlog grew from $155 billion in Q3 to $240 billion in Q4.
So a 55% lift in backlog.
So they added, what is it, $45, $85 billion in backlog.
what is it, $45, $85 trillion in backlog.
So the question I have is, and we'll find out tonight,
obviously they're taking from Microsoft, we know that.
Are they taking from Amazon?
That's going to be the interesting question
because I think Amazon is going to knock that apart,
but we'll see.
Well, Microsoft is growing,
but not keeping up market share potentially.
So Amazon could also be growing, but not growing as fast as the market.
So, yeah, I mean, I still think they're probably taking it more from the smaller players than from these two in any huge sense.
I saw Shai joining us up here. We're talking a little Google talking a little Amazon, Amazon
earnings coming up after the close and you've heard a little bit of the conversation. I
wonder if you have any thoughts.
Yeah, I mean, wow, on Alphabet's earnings yesterday, I think they had an exceptionally
high bar to pass because the move they've experienced the past year or so
has been a multiple expansion one.
And they surpassed it.
I don't care what the stock price is indicating today.
I think today, I don't know what's happening
on why the risk-off environment is so aggressive.
I think it's an unwinding of something
that's external from AI, but who knows what it might.
It might just be crypto-related
and there's forced selling elsewhere or zero DTs. I don't even know what it is, but on Google specifically,
it was video game like numbers. What Google cloud produced, I think it's not discussed
enough how insane it is that Google cloud reaccelerated 48% growth. And they did so when the whispers were supposed to be in the high 30s.
And this is not a small cloud service provider anymore.
Like this is a $70 billion run rate cloud service provider.
And they're talking about a ridiculous acceleration at scale that implies,
I forgot what you mentioned earlier, like it is a market share gain.
Um, so and there's also an improved
product mix that help gets pulled
forward by all these AI workloads that they have.
And that's part of the good thesis that we had was
that AI is going to become cheaper and cheaper to bake into
existing ecosystems and distribution and nobody's position
better than that alphabet, meta and Amazon to do so so we saw the two signs already on meta and
Google be able to leverage how cheaper and cheaper AI is going to be to bake
into your existing productivity that you can I have some margin expansion
acceleration I anticipate the same thing happening Amazon this afternoon I'll be pretty disappointed actually if we don't see a similar reacceleration. I anticipate the same thing happening in Amazon this afternoon. I would be pretty disappointed actually, if we don't see a similar reacceleration of
some sorts on AWS's business.
Tricky part of the Amazon though is I think the market only cares about the AWS business,
but it's still less than 20% of their total revenue.
So I think that it's going to be interesting if the margins are going to be 9% or higher on the North American, on the retail side of the business.
I think their ad is under discussed as well.
So maybe that helps bump up some upward surprise.
But from what I've been hearing, AWS should be having a stellar year this year.
I think people also forget that they are releasing Trinium 3.
It took three generations for Google to perfect their TPU business. People don't respect the Tranium team at all at Amazon,
but they, I think, will soon enough. Also, that massive data center that's being ran
and Thropic runs is off of Tranium chips. So really, I know like Amazon owns 15% of, or I don't know what the
exact percentage is of Anthropic, but really the whole read through on Anthropics cloud
moments should be just the Tranium chips. Like they're going to get, it's going to accelerate
and push forward the improvements on that for the following generations afterwards. And they got to
keep all the margins, not give it away to Nvidia like they've been in the past.
So I think that's going back on Google.
I mean, what are they even at right now?
I haven't checked, but this is if you're a Google shareholder,
you can't ask for a better print than that, especially when I think they
dropped the mic on the AIs are just disrupting search narrative
because they produce the biggest growth quarter. Search produced the biggest growth quarter, I think, was
in four years. And that matters a lot on whatever the Google Bear thesis is that
AI is going to kill the link economy. So what was the last thing you said there? So their search
business grew quarter over quarter, year over year for most and um search had the best growth quarter since
early 2022 so four years and and then you know that's coming off a much larger number than it
was two uh two three four years ago yeah i think it just proves uh like if you have an ecosystem
you can bake ai if you do it cautiously and effectively.
And again, like I think it was Vishal who said this, like he does, Google doesn't really
have to just light money on fire in order to get an ROI on their AI spend.
Like that is what the market cares about this year.
So I think that you are seeing everything you want on Gemini usage ramping their AI overviews and AI
mode are also expanding all the query behavior rather than cannibalization of it like everyone
was worried about AI so like I think the market tripping over supply constraint issues is just
way overblown and short-minded thinking and I think Sundar basically said that their biggest
challenge on the call was chips and power in an efficient way.
And Google Cloud growth might be impacted due to that.
That's just him being a conservative adult in the AI economy, which I love hearing that from him.
But I just think that we all know it's a tight supply environment.
It's going to be for a while.
Like you heard TSM CEO just say a couple weeks ago, like this environment's going to be pretty
tight until 2028, maybe 2029.
So that alone gives me some relief to participate in these dip buying opportunities in the AI
infrastructure environments, because that is still humming.
It's still expanding.
Nobody knows how big that is.
Palantir just, again, reminded everyone this week how early we still are in this AI cycle
because they produce some eye-watering numbers as well.
The stock is getting penalized because they're in that software bucket.
And we're at the lazy part in the cycle where I think if you're correlated with software,
it doesn't matter what you do, or valuations up there as well,
you're getting pulled down with the rest of that whole bucket.
But I think Pounce are guiding to a reacceleration of 61% this fiscal year when everyone thought it was going to be a deceleration of low 40s this year.
That's like a wow moment.
Not just that, they nearly doubled the operating margin estimates for the full year.
Everyone thought it was going to be low 40s operating margin.
They came in at 71%.
This is unheard of numbers.
And I get the valuation bear thesis, but it's hard for me to believe OpenAI is worth 500,
600 bill, Anthropik's worth 400 bill, and Palantir deserves to be worth 250 to 300 bill. I know
the valuation is up there, but nobody is making more money in this AI cycle right now as pure
application layer than Palantir. And they're doing it profitably and growth-wise at the same time,
which is very difficult, and others can't really say they're doing that as well.
Yeah, but two of those are valued in private markets,
so that's not as accurate as the public markets.
No, no, absolutely.
I agree with that sentiment as well.
But it's just, it's hard to think that Pounce Year's worth this much
six months ago when they're just, like, destroyed estimates.
And I'm not saying, like, I'm an early Pounce Year investor, so, like, I'm not saying like I'm an early pound to your investor.
So like, I'm not saying bye, bye, bye right now.
I'm just calling out that's more validation that we're so early in this AI cycle.
Like these are real companies making a lot more ROI on AI spend.
And I wouldn't correlate the poison pill, aka Sam Altman, everything that's correlated open AI into an AI bubble when
I think whatever the open AI can't deliver is going to get scooped up by the other hyperscalers.
And I don't think it's going to correlate into some kind of structural damage that we can't
recover like in the Great Recession. I think it's a totally different environment. And I think that
whatever Sam Altman can't deliver on that $1.4 trillion in infrastructure spend, I think it's a totally different environment. And I think that whatever Sam Albin can't deliver on that $1.4 trillion in infrastructure
spend, I think we'll just get filled in elsewhere.
But we're in the broad de-risking right now of positioning across the entire growth market.
And I think that it doesn't matter what you do, it doesn't matter what your reports,
you're going to fall.
And a lot of things are getting lost in this kind of tape.
But all I care about is the underlying AI economy is not slowing down in any meaningful
way.
Hyperscale capital spending is accelerating rather than rolling over.
And we're seeing proof of that over and over again, this earnings cycle that we're just
so much further above what the market has been modeling.
And AI driven revenue is growing way faster than what people expected just a year ago and the whole thing about well if we build these ai cities will people actually want
to live there we're getting validation from google that the token is token usage is through the roof
and inference demand is also through the roof with what jensen's is saying so i think that this
all this is macro noise but having said that you should be defensive because we are experiencing a big character change at the technical level on the QQQ.
Like, we broke the 21 EMA level, what felt like a breeze with volume.
I thought maybe today we'd have a bounce back day on a really strong Google report.
We did not.
We had a little recovery in the morning, but a new low of the day.
This market feels like it wants to go lower.
You have to respect what the tape's saying because this is a new character change in the markets.
You have to have your defensive hat on.
And I think that you have to be totally fine to be long-term bullish with a short
term bearish hat on and you kind of have to be fluent in that way in this market because things
are moving at a crazy crazy pace but i'll pass it back to you evan
yeah i think that was a good general rundown right there. We got about 23 minutes until the market closes.
I was actually just taking a quick peek.
And if anyone wants to bounce off of that, feel free to jump in.
I'll throw it off in a second.
But I was just looking at Amazon versus Walmart on the all-time annual revenue.
And it looks like Amazon is about to take over as the largest company by revenue in the world, in the U.S., whatever it is.
But watch out for those tweets coming in a little bit.
Mautiv, I saw you on mute there.
Yeah, a couple of quick things that doesn't get talked about much.
Google said they reduced the cost of serving Gemini by 78% in 2025.
78% in 2025. Just tells you the efficiencies of being able to leverage internal use and to serve
customers at the same time. It's just very unique. It's just unbelievable strength that it brings to
them. Cutting cost of serving Gemini by 78% is nothing small. It's a huge, huge deal.
So that obviously helped add to the margins of the cloud business.
Got to say, I just got a notification of Bitcoin under $63,000 now.
So you continue to go down?
Almost. It took a little spike.
It's like $63,300 right now, I see.
Anyone got any crypto thoughts here?
Any levels they're watching this in downside?
I mean, we're down what?
We're seeing margin calls here.
You saw margin calls in the market today off of this move on crypto.
Well, we're looking for something to break here. We're looking for a leveraged crypto etf an exchange some sort of product because
that's what you get with moves like this well i mean what did they say today uh bmr and our
that bmnr is sitting on over eight billion dollars now and on recognized losses mstr who reports
tonight's in the speak they're down almost three billion now from even though they've been buying
all over the place yeah This is some interesting stuff.
Who's going to want to give them money to buy more crypto at this point?
Well, and you've got things like ASST and BTCS and all these things that are just…
Oh, they're toast.
Those are just toast.
Yeah, I mean, look, I think that this is something we've been talking about for a while now.
I mean, you just go down the list.
Bitcoin's down 50.
If you bought Bitcoin five years ago today, you'd be flat.
If you add it higher, you're down, okay?
Stock Talk has talked about this ad nauseum.
There are opportunity costs out there.
It's a real thing, right?
And the idea of just buying something, dime enhancing it, I don't get it.
But yeah, the crypto space is in big trouble i just
tweeted something out from um joe wazenthal from bloomberg and he put out a pretty interesting
case on why this time it actually might be different in crypto um i mean think about it
how much adoption have we had institutional adoption we have the most pro crypto administration
ever you know i mean there's so many
Tailwinds at crypto and it's just imploding. So
Yeah, I think it's I think it's an overhang every time the markets tried to rally today and crypto bitcoins gone lower
It's pulled the market back down with it now. That's not gonna last forever at some point. They're gonna decouple
But right now it's it's kind of a it's a weight around the market's neck
It's just adding to the
downward pressure in the queues.
Definitely got to be some of today's move. I think even Shia, you were talking about this,
what the cause of it is, what's happening here a little bit. And sometimes there doesn't even
have to be a reason for short term market moves but crypto, kind of
what's happening here
it's getting less
affordable to mine crypto
so if you have a choice
if you're going to put your efforts into
an AI data center or into a crypto
mining operation, which one are you going to do right now?
well which one were they going to do at
Bitcoin 250k, they were still
probably going to do the data centers, to be fair.
Yeah, well, so there you go. So now there's even more of a reason to go for the data centers.
There's just a lot of things that are pressuring crypto right now. It's no longer early, right?
Everyone knows the story of crypto. Bitcoin has not proven itself as a hedge against inflation.
It's not a store of value. There's no transactional, you know, it's not a currency. It is a speculative product.
It hasn't turned into all the things it's supposed to be.
So it's just kind of blind faith at this point.
And there's nothing that can break blind faith better than a break in price.
Hey, a quick question, Brian.
Maybe you can answer this.
Did the Bitcoin miners use their Bitcoin holdings as a security for the debt they raised to build data centers?
That's a great question.
I do not know.
My guess would be it's a diverse sector.
Some did, some didn't.
That's probably how it ends up going there.
I'm sure the good ones didn't.
And now I got a notification.
Robinhood is now down 10% today.
Hamid, we've added more.
$72.53.
I just bought some more.
And I posted a video as to why.
We talked about it on the podcast yesterday, Dustin and I.
But basically, Robinhood is going down as a...
Because it's sort of attached.
The market has decided that Robinhood represents crypto.
Ironically, the market does not think Coinbase,
which gets all of its revenue from crypto, is attached to crypto.
So it's super funny to me.
But Robinhood gets about 20% of their revenue from crypto.
Coinbase is like the vast majority of their revenue is from crypto.
But when we look at like Robinhood and their exposure to crypto being 20% of their revenue last quarter, for example.
So, you know, if crypto revenue goes down, let's say 40% because of the crypto volatility and decrease in prices, because
they make it sort of like a percentage margin, right?
If it goes down 40%, that's roughly $100 million hit on a $1.3 billion of revenue for Robinhood.
And in Q4 alone, it's very likely that their prediction markets will hit $100 million of revenue up from just $30 million the previous quarter.
So just the prediction markets alone might make up for any kind of shortfall that the crypto sector has.
And then Robinhood still has 10 other products that are growing rapidly, including their gold subscription, their credit cards.
I mean, quick question.
Do you know the margins of the predictive market for business for them?
Because I have no idea.
I was trying to look that up as you're speaking.
It's got to be pretty much full.
I mean, it's extremely low.
Well, it's low margin, but it depends what you consider margin.
Because billions of dollars go through it,
and it's less than a 1% take rate.
And then it's high margin off of that 1%. So depending on how you look at the margins, it's pretty good.
Like last quarter, they made $29 million in revenue from it, if I'm not mistaken.
That $29 million probably was extremely high margin um
but uh but anyway so so actually i will say they did they do so i played around with the prediction
markets a little bit since they're partnered with calci what they've done is calci just takes their
fee and then robin hood just adds basically the same fee on top of it so using robin hood for
prediction markets tends to be more expensive than some of the other ones.
So actually, now that I think about it out loud, they probably are just splitting the 50% of the fee and then taking like 45% margin, which is still relatively high.
But I imagine that's why they're trying to also cut Kelshi out.
But the brokerage model for trading products they don't make money they
anyway right they're trying to bring you in that's a loss leader they want to get you in the door and
then move you to something that's higher margin so i don't think they necessarily have to make
money in the prediction markets but they are oh they're making uh really good money on the prediction markets as well. But basically, their overall margins are also fantastic.
They're expected to make $0.62 per share of profits on $1.3 billion in the fourth quarter that they're going to report on next week.
So let me look at how many shares they have outstanding here.
Shares outside, almost like 900 million.
So they're expected to make somewhere in the neighborhood of, what is it, $550 million
off of 1.3 billion of revenue.
So the net profit margin on Robinhood is like insane.
It's like on par with the greatest software companies
in the world.
So their overall profit margin is fantastic.
And the revenue is so distributed between interest income and margin income and options trading and equities trading and credit cards and gold subscription and prediction markets.
They're very actually robust in terms of like how diversified they are.
It's just super fascinating to me that the market has decided that it should go
up and down with bitcoin bitcoin is is nothing it's just it's just the um bitcoin represents
uh people's belief in a completely different system that is completely made up it has no i mean i own some bitcoin but like it like i don't
consider bitcoin having any intrinsic value other than you know uh making it easy to do transactions
cross-border you know um that's it's uh that's its intrinsic value and you know what's the price of
that you can't really put a price on it it could be 10
bucks it could be 10 million dollars you just like it's somewhere in between and whatever people
believe that's what it is that's like bitcoin with robin hood you have actual revenue you have actual
profits you have uh growing business that just continues to expand and execute brilliantly. So Robinhood is one of those companies
where if you fast forward 10 years from now,
what would be your prediction of Robinhood?
It's going to be a dominant financial player.
It's going to be significantly bigger than it is today,
possibly 10 to 20 times larger than it is today,
maybe even more than that.
And you're going to look back and say,
I had a chance to buy it 10 years ago, and I didn't, you know, at reasonable prices. So that's
the way I look at Robinhood. And, you know, this past couple of weeks, Robinhood getting hit by,
you know, prices down over 30% in in two weeks it's just kind of
ridiculous but yeah i'm expecting them to have a decent quarter i do i do think uh part of the
reason hood's pulling back is more more of the premium multiple day experience um during the
past year so i think it's returning back towards their multi-year median but now you have to layer
in like you mentioned i think it's 30 of. But now you have to layer in, like you mentioned,
I think it's 30% of their revenue.
You have to layer in that potential revision downward.
So that combination is just making it very aggressive right now.
I agree.
I think this level is really interesting for Robinhood.
It's just in this full-on risk-off environment,
like sentence first, ask questions later,
it just feels like the face of this pullback.
Sniper, you have your hand up so pass to you yeah um honestly i am looking at like i'm looking up a couple of statistics but i mean 85 but somewhere between it's not a precise number out there but
somewhere between 85 and 90 percent of robin hood's uh prediction market contracts that are
traded are associated with the NFL or with sports.
And as we all know, there's one football game left on the season.
So I got to be honest, I kind of look at the prediction markets
in this current place as a headwind.
And Piper Sandler is saying something pretty similar along the lines,
but it's pretty shaky coming towards the end of the season
to see if they're going to be able to continue the prediction market business
until we have football again, which is not going to be for quite a while.
Well, don't forget, there's basketball, there's the World Cup coming up.
I mean, the prediction market just has continued to grow rapidly and rapidly for them.
I'm not a huge fan of the prediction markets in particular because I consider it sort
of like a betting business. I kind of wish that they were more focused on the financial part,
financial products. But they also have like banking products about to be introduced. And
everything else that Robinhood has been doing has continued to do well and growing. And they're having more inbound of money transfer from all other brokerages
into Robinhood over the past few years. So they're in a great shape to just continue to grow
a fantastic financial tech company with a great CEO who happens to be on top of all of these
things. They're making some really great AI investments.
I think the future is extremely bright for them.
So that's your bullish case, though, right?
Is the management and their operation capability and the brand, right?
Because nothing they have, it really has a moat around it.
There's nothing there that couldn't be done in other markets and other companies.
But you're just saying that from a management standpoint, a capability standpoint, and a brand, that's what's going to lead them?
Yeah.
So if you believe that nothing that they have has a moat around it, then imagine how much lower the barrier or the moat is around Goldman Sachs' business or Morgan Stanley's business or pick your favorite brokerage. And so whoever does a better job in the long run at a lower price, if there is no moat,
that company wins.
And Robinhood has the best prices for consumers, right?
From a, you know, from managing money charges that they do for AI, sort of like managing your investments and providing baskets of investments in the same way that like a Goldman Sachs or whatever might do an investment advice for you.
But they'll charge you 1%.
Robinhood charges you 0.25%.
And they max it out at $250. So if you have a lot of money, the $250 max charge is pretty
amazing relative to, you know, if you were investing a million dollars with Goldman Sachs,
it's going to be a $10,000 annual fee. So, you know, Robinhood is, if there is no moat,
if you believe that, then the money is only moving in one direction and it's into Robinhood
from all of the other places.
And if there is a moat because there's brand loyalty or whatever, then again, Robinhood is in a great place because they're just continuing to grow their business and their user base.
And their user base happens to be a younger generation.
So as they inherit more money and they make more money as they get older, that assets under management is just going to continue to grow.
So again, I don't know what's going to happen in the short term with Robinhood,
but in the long term, I feel extremely confident in that business.
And you said they're bringing in higher margin banking products as well?
Is that correct?
I don't know if it's going to be what the margins on their banking product is,
but they're about to release banking products like checking accounts and bill pay and all that stuff.
Got it.
We are getting much closer to the market being done for the day, 4 p.m. Eastern,
and we have a bunch of earnings coming up after the close today.
So definitely I wanted to shift the conversation and start talking more in that direction.
Amazon is the big dog of the day, but we also have names like Reddit,
Fintwits favorites like Iron,
MicroStrategy.
We'll see what they end up saying today.
Bitcoin at 62.5K,
continuing to go lower.
What is happening there?
CleanSpark also reporting earnings.
Atlassian, Roblox, Fortinet, Affirm.
A bunch of numbers about to be reporting here.
I want to go to Sniper for the numbers in a second,
but Stock Talk, do we have you?
I know he had a little bit of a crazy afternoon coming.
I'm like headed to the airport, so probably not best to go to me right now.
Yeah.
You're good.
Any like actually just top of the dome thoughts on Amazon earnings?
But I can let you go if you need to.
Yeah, not the right time.
Cool.
Stock Sniper, why don't you run through some
of what is the numbers here on Amazon specifically to start? Yes, sir. Amazon is definitely the one
that we're all here to see today. So when we take a look over at Amazon earnings, I have a nice
little write up on it, but there's three major data sets that people are going to be looking for.
I'd say number one, and in my opinion, one of the most important is the AWS cloud. We're looking for
this to come in around 21 to 22% growth.
I think that it's detrimental that they maintain above 20% growth on the cloud revenue.
And I think that a surprise on this, exceeding 25% could also send the stock.
I think that the second most important data set that people are going to be watching for,
and again, you could debate that this is the third most, but capital expenditures.
We know that Meta just came in and said they were going to be spending a lot more money
than anybody thought.
We're expecting Amazon to come in and run $125 billion.
It could be also that they're increasing their capex spend, like Evan said earlier, for tax
benefits.
Very possible, very feasible option there.
And I would say that the third largest data set that we're looking for
when it comes to Amazon is going to be the advertising revenue. We're looking for this
number to come in at $21 billion. A surprise on this in both directions could also send the stock
as well. Our implied move on Amazon coming into this is $16.45 or 7.33%. And this is because the
open interest is at $4,173,229. Haven't seen the open interest above 4 million
in quite a while. In the last four reports, we could see a plus 9.58%, a minus 8.27%,
a minus 0.12% and a minus 4.05. Now, the thing that makes this report even crazier is we're
looking for 211 billion revenue and $1.97 EPS. Now, I can't emphasize this. $211 billion is a significant jump.
Four quarters ago, when we were looking at their last December report or Q4 report,
which is what we're looking at today, is $187 billion. So last quarter, they put out $180
billion. We're looking for $31 billion more out of Amazon in this quarter and $24 billion more dollars out of Amazon in this quarter and 24 billion more than
the last quarter for last year.
I could be wrong by a number there.
But that's pretty much mainly what we're looking at
with Amazon there. We're expecting these numbers
at 4.01pm right after the bell.
Yeah.
I appreciate that. That was actually
pretty insightful. Is X broken
for anyone else?
Like on the desktop?
Like my X is not loading.
No, I think I'm good.
I think it's good for me right now,
but it's been happening a little bit over the last couple days and weeks.
But I think I am good right now.
Can we talk Iron for one second?
I think there's a lot of people here for this name as well.
Sure, give me an Iron rundown.
Okay, very quickly, Iron key data sets to watch for.
AI cloud revenue similar to this.
Iron's price for perfection.
Any hiccup here could definitely move the stock.
As we know, the stock's been absolutely hammered because of Bitcoin.
There is a possibility that we could see an announcement that might be partial separation for Bitcoin.
I'm not really sure.
There's a lot of speculation in the air about this.
We're going to be mainly watching for their data center power capacity. We're looking for 2.9
gigawatts. Childress could be producing up to 750 megawatts adding to this. But then our next
data set that we're mainly looking at is our GPU deployment and our cloud capacity. The GPU
deployment, we want to look for backlogs and we want to look for orders on NVIDIA chips and we
want to look for them deploying these NVID Nvidia chips and actually getting these things up and running
That's the key data sets that we're looking for here
Iron does not ever seem to disappoint. It does not ever seem to impress people on earnings
At least the last four reports are posted on my page. You can see those there
We only have two minutes till Amazon but our estimates for iron or 288 point 44 million revenue
What are the last four reports you got me was mean, it was a good hook them interest. Yeah, okay. Minus 6.84% plus 14.93%. Keep in mind, there was a big announcement on
that one. Minus 2.76% and plus 0.54%. Out of the last eight reports, IRON has had eight reports
since they've IPO'd, they've beat revenue once and they've beat EPS three times. Not exactly the
best name when it comes towards earnings. We're expecting these numbers
also at 4.07 PM. Our implied move on IRON is $5.48 or 13.31%. So it could pretty much cancel out
one of these terrible days that we've seen on the event of a good report if it was to make the full
implied move. So yeah, that's pretty much what we're looking for. Keep an eye on AI cloud revenue,
keep an eye on data center power capacity, and keep an eye on GPU deployment for IR for iron we want to see if there's any headlines and also see if there is any
partial Bitcoin separation that is pretty much what everybody's looking for when it comes towards iron
thank you for that rundown there mr. sniper that was good we got one minute until the market closed
I would like to hear we're gonna get the Amazon numbers out any second now.
So I don't have that much time
and you don't have that much time to comment.
Go in the Spaces chat,
the purple 48 in the bottom right of your screen
and just tell me if you think Amazon
is gonna go up after the numbers initially or go down.
So just write up or down.
I'm gonna read through the comments
over this next minute here.
Go into that purple 48 in the bottom right of your screen.
These Amazon numbers should be out any second here. Let me get it up on my chart,
and then I'm going to look over. Comment down below if you guys think Amazon stock is going
to go up or down following its earnings. It's down 4.4% as we head into the market close here.
Amazon, the numbers might come out 401, 402, 403, something like that, somewhere around there, but
we should be getting these numbers any second.
Again, Amazon is expected to report a very large revenue number.
That would make them the biggest, brought in more revenue than Walmart this past year,
which would make them the biggest American company based on revenue.
Adam said down.
Rocky said down.
Flo said up.
Scott said up.
Kevin said up. Tom, Rocky. Rocky said sick of Flo said up. Scott said up. Kevin said up. Tom.
Rocky. Rocky
said sick of downs. Up, up, up.
Sorry.
I misrepresented you a little bit
there. One or two more of the comments and we'll
see where we're at coming out of this. Leo
said down even if the earnings are great.
Jen said
Bitcoin bottomed. Didn't even ask for
the prompt but I respect it.
Christian said up.
VDRM said he thinks it's going to go up.
Tom down.
Super signal down.
All right, we should be getting these Amazon numbers out any second now.
Pretty mixed there on how the crowd is feeling.
I know Stock Talk likes to preach.
We don't like to go for those empirical stuff there.
But it was pretty mixed. The stocks on spaces sentiment
gauge is right at even in the middle in neutral at 50 out of 50 out of 100. We are waiting here
in after hours for these Amazon earnings. I saw a little bit of a tick there down to 2%. I am
seeing Amazon earnings out and flashing. Revenue of $213.4 billion, which is a beat on
expectations of $211 billion. Let me know if you see EPS right away. I think it's $1.95,
which would be a miss. Sniper, you can let me know if you're seeing the same thing. Did Amazon just miss on EPS?
I'm seeing their EPS in at 195, expected 195.
I'm seeing EPS in line.
And I'm seeing the revenue beat, which is huge.
Yeah, I'm actually seeing EPS as a miss on my thing.
But yeah, $213.4 billion.
Doesn't matter.
The $1.95 is correct there.
I did see a Wolf post come out on this one.
Outlook, Amazon expects net revenue next quarter between $173.5 billion to $178.5 billion.
So they gave some forward guidance on this call as well.
This does make Amazon the company with reporting the most revenue out of any company in the U.S. this past year.
So quite the milestone there.
Cloud.
Oop, I'd probably say AWS.
24% growth rate, rates 35.6 billion uh what's your initial take there do you have an initial take there monotov on cloud coming in at up 24 percent aws 25 35.6 billion
how is that that that that is over the expected number 22 23 was the whisper number I looked at for cloud.
So that's a beat.
So that's a good thing.
At least that should prevent any, you know,
worries about cloud.
It's still growing.
I mean, for the size
of their cloud business,
24% is insane growth still.
I'm waiting for the numbers.
I don't have it yet. So I'm waiting for the numbers.
I don't have it yet, so I'm trying to get it.
That forward guidance number was pretty much right in line with expectations there.
So Amazon stock is down 7%, 8% right now in after hours.
Let me see again.
So they report $213 billion of revenue.
That means they brought in...
$717 billion on the year.
Is that going to be correct here?
I imagine they would set it.
Yeah, $717 billion on the year is what Amazon brought in in full year revenue.
Amit, I wonder if you have any initial takes as you're looking through some of these numbers.
I haven't digested it yet.
I did see that they beat revenue by almost 1%, missed EPS by almost 1%, but I haven't looked at the details.
DPS by almost 1%, but haven't looked at the details.
This is definitely not nearly as impressive as Google or Meta, for example, just right
off at the surface level.
Yeah, that is fair.
Stock is getting hit pretty hard off of this one.
And Sniper, if you see any other numbers, you can feel free.
I'm trying to get one or two things to update here for me.
here for me got a couple of them iron earnings are out uh 184.7 million revenue versus 226.9
Got a couple of them.
Iron earnings are out.
expected um no eps uh expected eps was minus seven cents so they missed their revenue by 19
on iron I made a little mistake on this anyway.
Okay, thank you for that one.
What is Iron Stock doing in after hours?
Probably nothing good.
I haven't checked.
Taking another look at Amazon, it is down as I go back to the broker.
Iron Stock is up 4% here in after hours.
Iron Stock with a little bit of a move higher.
Still down on the day, but Iron with a little bit of a recovery there.
You guys can let me know as Hamid and Moncev,
as you guys go through and digest the numbers a little bit.
I just got a notification that Amazon Stock is now down at 10% here in After Hours.
Roblox, Fortinet, a couple other numbers reported earnings.
Atlassian, ticker TEAM-e-a-m they came out with some numbers team beat on both eps and revenue stock isn't really moving much let me see
if i can find you guys a little bit more information on these amazon numbers
implied move was eight and a5%, something around there.
So some people are making money for now.
Net sales,
profitability,
operating income expected to be between
$16.5 to $21.5 billion
next quarter.
Yeah, Amazon, under $200
here in the after hours 1.9 billion verse 1.86 billion
expected 81 cents verse 74 cents expected double beat for fortinet
clean spark earnings 181.18 million, expected 187.73 million.
EPS, minus $1.35.
Expected, minus 25 cents.
Missed by 440% on the EPS.
Yeah, I'm still just watching Amazon here.
It's trying to recover a little bit from that 200 low,
but it is down 10%.
The implied move was 7.3% on Amazon.
I saw 8.5, but same difference, you know?
Mm-hmm.
Sorry, getting one or two things up.
Montev, did you get a chance to look in a little deeper at all?
I'm still only scratching the headlines here.
It's not been posted in Amazon yet.
Roblox, $2.22 billion versus $2.09 billion.
EPS, minus 45 cents versus minus 49 cents expected.
versus minus 49 cents expected.
Double beat for Roblox.
Double beat for Roblox.
Double beat for Roblox.
So it looks like we had a lot of people
who did come in and say down.
So a good amount of you guys are correct.
I'm seeing OnKit down below saying
Iron got a contract from Microsoft in here.
Interesting.
I wonder if that's helping out a little bit.
Todd B said just another stock to add to my losses for the day shout out Amazon downtown let me dig into this iron report a little
bit see if there if I do see that what you're talking about there the headlines are still I'm seeing it a miss, a one cent miss. Yeah, I'm seeing a miss on EPS.
I am seeing a miss for EPS on Amazon.
That is Amazon right there that I was talking about.
Let's control F within this iron thing.
Have we seen Amazon's CapEx number? No, but I guess I didn't necessarily search for it it's a good point what is it i don't know i'm asking
capital um with such strong such opportunities orbis, we expect to invest about $200 billion in CapEx across Amazon in 2026.
That's higher than expectations.
A lot higher.
Similar to Meta.
This is a quote from Andy Jassy
AWS growing at 24%, advertising
growing at 22%, stores growing
briskly across
North America and international, our chips
business growing triple digit percentages
year over year, this growth is happening
because we're continuing to innovate at a
rapid rate and identify and
knock down customers' problems
with such strong demand for our existing and seminal opportunities like AI chips, robotics,
and low-Earth orbit satellites, we expect to invest about $200 billion in capital expenditures
across Amazon in 2026, and we anticipate strong long-term return on invested capital.
Reddit did it again. Revenue coming in for Reddit
at $725.6 million. Expected was $667 million. EPS is $1.24. Expected EPS was $0.93. Very good so yeah amazon saying they expect to expect to spend 200 billion dollars on capex
that is the number there 200 billion dollars on capex there we go sg uh down in the comment
section also putting that leave in the comment section what you guys are seeing as you're
exploring these numbers
and I'll make sure to keep up with them
as best as I can.
Yeah, Jim's saying $200 billion.
Wow.
Amazon stock going lower.
But let's see,
what is NVIDIA stock doing here?
NVIDIA is up another 0.8% in after hours.
I know Logical who's down below.
If you want to come up here, join us.
And if you've been up here this whole time, I didn't know you were up here.
Amazon, I know all this CapEx is not definitely going directly to Nvidia,
but boy, a good little bit of it is.
At least some of it.
So Amazon's saying AWS, or Jazzy's saying AWS growth of 24% is the fastest in 13 quarters.
Wow.
Similar to what Google was saying earlier.
Wow.
And obviously we're coming off of much bigger bases, much bigger numbers.
Yeah.
I'm still
$200 billion on CapEx.
Google said it $180 billion.
Meta $125 billion.
Microsoft
$105 billion. Like, wow.
All right. Wow. That's still blowing me away a little bit.
So between those numbers, that is $380, $480, $505, $510, $610 billion of Cappex between just these four companies wow well you add up all the semi spending to you know to to service that that that that capex
demand you're probably going to hit a trillion dollars by the time it's all said and done, plus all the other large companies spend.
I mean, I'm sure they're all booking it out
on their bottleneck memory right now in Micron.
Yeah.
Those are some large CapEx numbers.
I mean, I don't know if you saw the headline today
that NVIDIA is planning on stopping the production of graphics cards for gaming because of memory shortage.
I will say, I will say, that was from the information who, you know, people have thoughts on.
So it might come out with them saying it wasn't true.
But yeah, that was the rumor going around.
No, but seriously seriously it's very
possible that they've already done some of it right you saw the lift in amd's gaming numbers
it's very possible that nvidia has already gone and done it the thing is that like what is the
indications that we're hearing from not just one source, but all sources.
All sources point to memory being a major shortfall
over the next several years with no sort of like visibility in sight
as to when memory shortfall is going to be addressed.
So, you know, obviously,
MyCon has already gone on record saying that they...
He cut out for me.
Yeah, I lost you.
Lost you guys there for a second.
Yep, we hear you now.
Am I back?
Yes.
Can you hear me okay?
Okay.
Yeah, so Micron is already on record saying that they have sold out 2026 supply.
And everyone else is saying we can't get memory until 2027, 2028.
Elon's on record saying that there's going to be at least a three-year or longer supply shortage.
shortage uh Jensen is on record saying it I mean like what other proof do we need besides all of
Jensen is on record saying it.
these things all of these indications that memory is going to be a major uh have a major sort of like
GPU moment of its own this year and potentially next year and possibly in 2028 as well. So, like, Micron seems like a no-brainer right now
based on expected profitability this year alone.
That's not even assuming any sort of, like, increase in 2027.
So, yeah, I'm very bullish, Micron.
Well, we're almost certain at this point,
for all the reasons you just stated,
to get a taco on the blacklist of Chinese memory makers.
They are the swing producers. There's no choice at this time.
We are certain to get a taco on the blacklist.
Now the question is, is how do they take all the chips and stuff?
Or are you saying from the memory perspective, the memory producers?
Wait, I'm not sure what a taco from the chinese producers means what does that mean we have
blacklisted the largest chinese company memory makers so so so they they are in the blacklist
so u.s companies cannot deal with them so my my guess is that we are going to need that capacity
from from the chinese if if if they're able to supply.
So that blacklist is almost certain to come off.
Oh, I see what you're saying.
But even if it does, it would mean that memory chip usage for like MacBooks and regular computers might be addressed,
and iPhones and Androids and so on,
but not data center memory.
It's unlikely that the Chinese memory makers
are even capable of making the data center memory,
the high bandwidth memory that is the bulk of the growth
that's happening for Micron.
I didn't say high bandwidth,
but I also don't believe that they are incapable of making it.
It's just a matter of time.
It's going to happen.
But we have three certified producers now.
That's it.
That's the problem, right?
All three are out of capacity, and that's a problem.
All three have said that they are adding capacity as fast as possible,
but all that addition is already sold out. So it's not
that I'm specifically talking about data center alone. I'm just saying this memory shortage is
across the board, right? The only question that kept coming up in the Apple call was,
what about memory? What about memory? They punted it every time.
So it's not just the data centers that are going to suffer.
And it's only HBM, right, that you're specifically talking about with these three companies.
But, you know, server memory is also a problem because that's DDR.
And many of these big players have gotten out of DDR to convert that capacity to HBM.
So we've got a problem in the entire memory stack, not just HBM.
HBM is the most visible part of it because it's tied to data center, to the GPU directly. But everything else is equally a problem, which is what I meant when I said that, you know,
we're going to get a taco on that. So, you know, phones can be built and,
you know, laptops and desktops and servers can be built.
Yeah. I am in agreement that we're not going to allow sort of like if,
if there are suppliers,
Chinese suppliers that can sort of address the needs of the production of iPhones and laptops and so on to continue.
Obviously, we're going to allow for that.
It wouldn't make sense for us not to allow for that. the sort of foundational point that Micron, which makes DRAM, makes high bandwidth memory,
makes NAND chips, which is used for storage
like in your laptop, but also on servers,
is just in a great position to benefit
from all of this demand,
which does not seem to have,
we don't have a visibility on when this demand
is going to slow down
and in the meantime microns growth curve might follow suit similar to nvidia's growth curve over
the past three years and that's what i'm excited about and that's why i have invested in Micron.
By the way,
like I said a little earlier,
this does make Amazon the largest company in the world ranked by revenue.
I have them down at $716.9 billion of revenue
during the year. Walmart, who was the previous owner, was at $716.9 billion of revenue during the year.
Walmart, who was the previous owner, was at $681 billion.
We got affirm earnings, $1.112 billion, $1.06 expected.
EPS in at $0.37, expected to be at $0.27.
MicroStrategy earnings, $123 million revenue, expected $118.47.
EPS actual, minus $42.93, expected minus $20.99.
Okay, I appreciate the run through there i'm waiting for my website to be updated here a
little bit so i can get to some of my screenshots that i'm waiting for but uh but yeah amazon's
call should be at 5 p.m eastern 5 p.m eastern do we have the amazon earners call we're gonna hear
andy jassy he was formerly at aws so i'm sure a lot of the questions will be centered in that direction.
What is Amazon stock doing right now? Video reverse course a little bit.
Amazon stock down 8%. We'll see if it can pull a Google and end the day.
Not nearly as bad as the post-earnings move.
Google stock ended the day. I'm seeing down 0.3%,
but I think there's still some updates to do there.
I know Synaptics had earnings after the close.
Stock's down a little bit.
Back to where it was yesterday.
So Amazon did put some color on their ASIC.
So Tranium and Gravitron now have a combined annual revenue rate of $10 billion
and growing at triple-digit percentage.
Tranium 2 is fully subscribed, used by 100,000-plus companies.
Tranium 3 is now delivering workloads
Tranium 3 is now delivering workloads.
with nearly all Tranium 3 supply
committed by mid-2026.
Tranium 4 is delivering starting 2027.
And let's see, Gravitron 5
used by 90% of the top 1,000 customers.
Yikes. These numbers are big.
I'm trying to find the numbers for
their advertising business.
They do break it down, right?
What do you mean?
From within the advertising business?
No, the growth rates there.
22%.
AWS growing 24%.
Advertising growing at 22%.
Okay.
It just got posted a few minutes ago,
so I'm still going through it.
Physical stores was $5.9 billion.
Third-party sellers, $52.8 billion.
That's up 11%.
Advertising was up 23% year-over-year.
AWS, highest margin business, growing the fastest.
That's a nice little combo.
And it's pretty big.
So, yeah.
How much income did spring in
45.6 billion
operating income
and how much of that was AWS
AWS no that is AWS
AWS second operating income
so the revenue was, let's see,
full year was $128.7 billion
and operating income was $45.6 billion.
So it's gone up from 39.8 in 2024 to 45.6.
point six so about 15 16 percent better so 20 percent year over year for full
So about 15, 16% better.
year increase in revenue so I'm looking at some more of your comments, by the way. Continue to look down there.
WolfX says, Hamid sounds like Elon.
We've
heard that once or twice.
Rels said, great earnings report
by Reddit. I haven't dug too deep in.
It's down 3% now.
Initially, move was higher.
You get the Elon thing a lot? Just on X, right,
Hamid? Just on X.
When I decided to merge xai and uh
spacex and homes but have you guys talked about the whole sort of merger of spacex and xai that's
super interesting uh we have not talked too much about it i will also say amazon if we wanted to
get a little bit of a segue into here into here amazon does have its own
projects trying to build low earth satellite orbits what is it called leo uh or maybe something else
but they have a whole constellation satellites it's kuna or project kuiper kuiper i feel like
they changed the name of it but project kuiper so yeah let's talk a little bit that's to compete
with starlink.
And they just started the service on that, if I'm not mistaken, not too long ago.
They have something like 60 satellites in orbit already.
But yeah, that should give Starlink a run for its money.
Hopefully, Starlink doesn't just keep raising prices as they have historically,
so when there's a little bit of competition.
But yeah, that's huge.
But the more interesting part is how Elon believes
that building data centers in orbit
or putting data centers into orbit
with using solar for the power generation is going
to actually be a cheaper way to scale data centers.
And the numbers that he's talking is pretty freaking fascinating.
So I'm curious what anybody's thoughts are on that.
I do wonder the feasibility, obviously.
Part of it is, you know, it seems like we don't,
there hasn't been much talk about how you get the energy back to Earth.
So, or like how we get the data center utilization back to Earth.
I don't know.
So it looks like they're going to have to use it in space.
I don't know what the capacity is for that.
I mean, maybe we can just beam. The idea is that you would just use it in space? I don't know what the capacity is for that. I mean, maybe we can just
beam. The idea is that you just use it in space, right? Like the data center is not where you're
at anyway. So it may as well be a few hundred miles up in space and, or maybe a couple thousand
miles up in space. And it's out of Earth's shadow and has something like 99% access to sunlight
for 99% of its orbit.
So a solar panel can generate five times the energy that it can on Earth,
which is what makes it very potentially economical if you can put the stuff into orbit.
It feels like we're still probably a couple years away from that,
put stuff into orbit.
Like the GPUs, the whole data center equipment is just a little too big,
a little too heavy.
And the payload is, you know, obviously it's come down drastically,
but it probably still needs one or two more cycles of exponential decrease in prices, which seems like it's going to keep happening.
Well, you know, even Elon thinks it's going to be three years and we know how his timelines work.
So, but, but, you know, even if it happens in five, that, that would still be fascinating, right?
would still be fascinating, right?
Like, we are going to steal the moon.
Like-
We are going to steal the moon.
Sorry.
Sorry.
I think you got your hand up.
Wolf Defense, you have your hand up.
Yes, Wolf Defense.
I was just about to correct you.
I had to switch accounts to have this conversation.
The term for this, what we're talking about,
the act of shooting data centers into space,
is actually called orbital computing.
If you want to read more about it, your keywords for your search is going to be orbital computing. Now, when orbital
computing versus data centers on the ground, there's a huge argument for this, right? They
will be powered with solar energy, which again, outside of Earth's atmosphere, they will be
collecting solar panels, energy a lot more effectively. Now, the next thing is, there is
some environmental impacts of having
all these data centers around. It does have negative effects on some of the water supplies.
It has negative effects on some of the surrounding environments around it. And exactly,
you know, it takes quite a lot of actual square mileage to build some of these data centers.
So the huge argument really, or Elon's biggest case when it comes towards shooting these data
centers up into space, you know, will be pretty much completely mitigating all these environmental factors,
and then going on the act of pretty much collecting them more efficiently and harvesting
energy from the sun. The term for this, again, like I was saying, is called orbital computing.
I'm seeing some very aggressive deadlines putting out there. There's a lot of analysts that are
citing a lot of concerns with IronCypher, BitFarms,
all of the leading data center names,
even CoreWeave and some of the hyperscalers,
even like Oracle.
There's a lot of people,
this is a real threat for this.
Jim Chanos was one of the first people
to start talking about this.
I don't know.
I haven't really formed my complete opinions on this,
but again, orbital computing is something
that's really going to be looking to take effect.
And there's some people even calling for this as early as 2027.
So, again, I'm not the one to decide.
I know Ewan is not a professional deadline hitter, but we shall see.
We shall see.
So just staying on Amazon here, operating cash flow is up 20%.
So 115 to, or 116 to 140 billion.
So there's about 24 billion lift there in operating cash flow.
This is fully our numbers.
The free cash flow fell from 38 billion to 11.2 billion.
So much of that they are calling as basically investment in AI. So there's
a 50 billion swing there and they're calling that as a result of investment in AI. So yeah,
cash flow is starting to disappear fast. In full year, free cash flow is less than a billion dollars a month.
So if you double over from last year's CapEx goals,
you're going to see some issues with cash flow or they're going to start raising a lot more debt.
I'm just going to play this out there before we continue to answer this one. make sure you're following the speakers up here it's been a really fantastic conversation
are you okay cool yeah make sure you're following the speakers up here i've enjoyed this amazon
earnings big day stocks moving lower but we have people like amid and monotiv who are sharing some
really great insights got to that wolf Defense account that is up here.
If you are interested in defense, aerospace, anything like that, that is a great account for you guys to be following.
Posting a lot of really interesting stuff.
Doing some good work there.
Follow that account.
And then if you enjoy...
My headphones died.
And then if you enjoy live free conversations just like this one, make sure you're following this account that is up here.
Hosting the spaces, Stocks on Spaces. Enjoy live free conversations just like this one. Make sure you're following this account that is up here,
hosting the spaces, Stocks on Spaces.
Live every single Monday through Thursday,
3 to 5 p.m. Eastern at least.
And then if you just love live content as well,
that Wolf Financial account,
the Gold Check, the Square Wolf up here,
hosts a bunch of live content all day, every day.
We had a Peter Schiff interview come on there today.
We had you guys here for live earnings.
We had Wolf Trading live all day.
Wolf Bitcoin had some interviews.
There is a lot going on if you are following that Wolf account.
So go in, check that out.
Make sure you are following all of the speakers up here.
We still got a great conversation coming here forward.
But yeah, I did want to make sure I just threw that out there.
Hamid, I think you only told us about the data centers in space. I don't remember hearing your opinion if that's something you actually believe. Oh, I think that if I was to bet one way or the
other, I would bet that data centers in space will happen. And I don't know if they'll
happen as quickly as Elon thinks, because he does need to have fully reusable Starship. That's going
to be a requirement. Otherwise, it's going to be just like current cost of getting a kilogram into
space is a little too high. Starship will reduce that cost if it's
fully reusable by a factor of 10, maybe even more. So you need to have that factor of 10 reduction
in cost to get things into orbit. And then if you can get things into orbit relatively low cost,
into orbit relatively low cost, you have way cheaper electricity production.
So that's a huge advantage.
You don't need to buy the land, construct all of this sort of like framing of the data
center, all of that stuff, which takes a you know, a lot more time, a lot
more money. Obviously, you don't need the same cooling systems. The cooling is relatively easier
using radio, radio cooling. So there's lots of potential advantages that come from it.
One of the most biggest advantage might actually be regulatory, meaning, you know, if you want to
build a data center, you need to have land use meetings and construction meetings and, you know, if you want to build a data center, you need to have land
use meetings and construction meetings and, you know, meetings for power and like all
of these regulatory issues might take, you know, anywhere from one to five years, depending
on where you're trying to build your data center to get all the approvals necessary,
apart from just even the construction of the data center.
And then you need to build what's going inside the data center.
So if you could sort of like bring all of that down
to just what goes inside the data center
and then launch it into space and operate it that way,
Elon might be right.
I mean, but it's going to take obviously a long time before they can get all the components
necessary to be able to do that.
Five years seems like a reasonable amount of time, maybe, on Elon time, meaning like
he is pretty quick on being able to get his teams to accomplish the impossible.
to get his teams to accomplish the impossible.
But even if it happened, let's say in six, seven, eight years,
it would still be a pretty incredible achievement
if it can be done at a lower cost
than doing it on the surface.
So long-term, I'm very bullish.
Short-term, meaning in the next two to three years,
which is the timeframe that he's thinking,
I think that's
just wishful thinking what do you think wolf defense
i'm so sorry i was tuned out if i'm gonna be honest wow i will say i mean can i kind of tell
you something i got a text from sniper earlier he was too afraid to say this, but he said,
by the way, random thought back,
when Ford canceled the Lightning and shifted to Hybrid,
Hamid made me feel like it was a bad stock for being bullish on it.
I said both of you.
Both of us.
He did say me and Hamid,
and then he said that Ford stock is up since then.
And Piper Sandler thinks that it's bullish now.
You got any thoughts on Ford stock?
So I wasn't, I don't think I commented on whether or not,
like the cancellation of the Lightning itself is a bullish or bearish thing on Ford stock.
But what I comment on sort of like at a high level is that this is the reason why
the incumbent companies in a particular field that is getting disrupted by disruptive technology
doesn't make it to the,
doesn't make the transition to the other side.
So, you know, think of like the entire world ran on sailboats a few hundred years ago
and eventually, you know, powerboats became a thing,
but they couldn't sort of like make long distance journeys across the Atlantic Ocean.
And, you know, but powerboats clearly were like up and coming and they were sort of like making replacing sailboats in the shorter journeys.
But none of the sailboat manufacturers made it to the sort of like become a major player in the powerboat generation, powerboat market.
Why is that?
Well, it's because of this exact sort of thing.
Even if they dabbled in powerboats, fundamentally, their core business was getting affected and
they didn't understand all of the sort of details on how that works.
And they ended up canceling projects.
And this has been going on for hundreds of years, right?
We saw the same thing from mainframes to PCs. We saw the same thing from
cameras that were film-based to digital cameras. We saw the same thing from
non-smartphones to smartphones. I mean, basically, the incumbents don't know,
don't understand the new tech. And that's what I'm arguing is that, you know, if we were to fast forward, you know, let's say 20 years from now, the chances that most of these incumbent car makers, such as Ford, such as GM, such as, you know, the Mercedes and BMW, Honda, Toyota, et cetera, et cetera, most of these guys are probably not going to make the transition.
are probably not going to make the transition.
And that would be my argument.
I have no idea what Ford stock is going to do in the short term
or over the course of the next year or even two years.
But long term, I'm uninterested in Ford
just because that's the way I see the market transitioning
is that it's going from incumbents that are too vested in old tech to disruptive technologies such as Tesla, such as Rivian, and obviously all the Chinese EV makers, but other EV makers that are sort of like very much vested on the new sort of frontier of tech, which is software-driven cars that have autonomous capabilities and
battery tech and all of that stuff.
So, you know.
Yeah, so I can't disagree with that.
Basically, though, to revisit the original conversation, the headline around was basically
going that Ford is going to basically take a one-time hit of $19.5 billion
to get out of the entire Lightning production situation and pivot and kind of focused more
on their EcoBoost Mustang and their existing models. Now, again, to just reiterate everything,
there were people in the comments, it wasn't just you and Evan against me. You know, there was, I felt like I was, I felt like I was Jon Snow against all the horses.
But basically, you know, everybody was saying, you know, that this is a huge hit, you know,
$19.5 billion is extremely expensive. I'm absolutely agreeing in that, you know, but
I personally interpreted that news as bullish, because I would like to see that company focus
on the products that are bringing in the most revenue, you know, it doesn't make sense for
them to spend a lot of money on something and continue spending money trying to
make something out of nothing, you know, and realistically, you know, no, no offense towards
anybody, you know, but anybody who has seen or really read about the Ford F-150 Lightning,
it's not really comparable. It's not really a great EV compared to what's going around.
It's not even close. Rivian R1, R2 models are years ahead of it. It's not even close. So I personally interpreted that as a bullish shift. And part of my original bull thesis, or part of the reason why I really liked Ford Motor and the year before that is, again, we have to take into account a couple of extra factors, right? My main thing on
this was the administration. Now, like Trump or don't like Trump doesn't really matter. We can
notice pretty much multiple times throughout the last year, whenever something isn't going exactly
how we want it to go, or how Trump wants it to go. We've heard the word tariffs thrown at the
other country many times.
Now, when we hear the word tariff, even though it seems to be much less impactful as he continues to threaten tariffs, when we hear the word tariff, people are going to freak out and there is an
economic impact of threatened tariffs. When people see the threatened tariffs, they're going to roll
money out of companies that will, you know, take a higher hit, you know, from companies that are
more so have China, China involvement or alternate countries that
are being threatened involvement. Now, I see money constantly roll into Ford because Ford is 70%
made in the USA, which is going to be much more tariff friendly if these tariffs were to actually
take effect, which again, they haven't. But if these tariffs were to take effect, again, Ford
is going to be a much better beneficiary of the tariffs.
So that's personally was part of my original bull thesis there. And then when I'm seeing them kind
of shift and focus on their main selling product, EcoBoost Mustang, which is a hybrid vehicle,
again, partially electric, partial gas, I personally interpreted that as bullish because,
again, that's the I think that they should focus on what's making them the most money,
as opposed to dumping a bunch of money in something that's not making them money.
They were actually losing well over $10,000 every lightning that they ended up selling.
So, yeah, that was pretty much my thesis there.
But I can't disagree with your previous comments.
The argument that you just made is exactly why incumbents don't make the transition.
Meaning, instead of spending a bunch of money on things that don't make them money, meaning like instead of spending a bunch of money
on things that don't make them money,
they should focus on what makes them money.
This is like literally the exact argument
that Kodak management and executives use
to not invest in digital cameras,
despite initially creating the first digital cameras
because that division was losing them money.
And the people internally were like,
why the fuck are we spending so much money on shit that's not making us money
when we could just focus on what is making us money?
And this is all sort of like explained in a book written by Clay Christensen.
It's a fascinating book, if anybody's interested who's listening, called The Innovator's Dilemma. But The Innovator's Dilemma, which is a brilliantly
written book in the 90s, explains why companies don't make these transitions when disruptive
technologies happens. And what you just pointed to, Sniper,
is exactly the reason why.
Because internally, they have all these discussions and they're like,
why the fuck would we not focus all of our efforts
on things that are making us money
versus shit that's losing us a ton of money?
And that is a brilliant argument
that is really, really hard to overcome.
So you know who overcomes it?
It's startups who don't have anything that's making the money.
And they have to make money off of the new disruptive technology that they have focused on.
And that's the reason why startups end up doing much better when disruptive technologies happen.
But fundamentally, you're right.
You know, like Ford is right to focus on what's
making the money. And that's why they will not exist 20 years from now. It's as simple as that,
really. That was an excellent comparison with your camera comparison. And the way that I see
it here is basically Tesla's got that Canon M400 camera already made you know um rivian's got i'm not
very familiar with cameras i don't know rivian's got another very awesome camera and you know ford
is trying to make theirs but you know again ford is the guy who is making the disposable cameras
that's making the money and they're trying to make a nice camcorder like which is what tesla
and rivian have existingly yeah i i absolutely agree with you there that was an excellent point you guys enjoy like i said if you enjoy content around the defense
sector airplanes like planes you like trains as well probably some other stuff make sure you're
following that wolf defense account that's up here i did see we had brian lunge join us back in
you don't normally join us back in later in the day. I wonder if there was anything exciting
for us that you wanted to share.
Was there something that just
got you jacked up that you had to join back, Mr. Brian Lund?
Happy to have you.
Or not.
When you try so hard.
I mean, we didn't talk that much about
Meta on this one
I can't hear Brian if he's talking
I don't know if you guys can hear him
No sir
I can't hear him
Yeah now we got you
Sorry I was talking with my
What's up?
I was just saying you don't normally join us back on the spaces
I was wondering if there was anything
we're excited about to join us I was just saying you don't normally join us back on the spaces. I was wondering if there was anything we're excited about to join us.
Oh, you know, I was just looking at Molina Healthcare dropping 35% after hours.
M-O-H, right?
Yeah.
Was this one?
I've seen it recently.
Did they get removed from the S&P 500?
Does that feel right?
Or I don't know what's with this name.
Boy, is it down, though though 62 percent over the last year
another bad move today nine billion dollar market cap back down to the lows of covid
uh you're seeing unh move in sympathy and oscar a couple other names and did you know that melina
health was actually the one two three four five, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9th worst
S&P 500, performing S&P 500
stock in 2025.
Fun fact. Wow. Fun fact
Thursday.
There you go. Actually, I just, I
logged back on to see if you
guys, if MicroStrategy had said anything
yet. I was going to listen to you guys talk about
that. I don't know what they're
going to say. Buy Bitcoin.
Sell your kidney.
Sell the other one.
You only need a fourth.
Sell some more.
Mortgage your house.
Take it off.
I see they're down after hours.
Have they announced anything yet?
I have not seen any major announcements around MSTR.
I knew you would know.
See, that's why I logged back in.
I'm like, who would know what the latest is? I go, Evan would know. see that's why i logged back in i'm like who would
know what the latest is i go evan would know so that's why i logged back in yeah i really don't
have much for you so transparently i don't think of micro strategies as a company that like i need
to look and focus around earnings it's got it monday morning did they buy bitcoin how much
bitcoin did they buy for anyone who doesn't know every every single Monday morning around 8am Eastern, I believe
is when they update their Bitcoin holdings that they're going to
do it. That's when I pay attention to it.
I learned something right there,
man. See, I'm glad I logged back in.
For anyone wondering, Tom Lee
and Bitmine, if you want to know
what time my stress begins,
8.30am Eastern, Monday
mornings, is when they give their
ethereum updates
but yeah earnings calls starting in about 15 minutes or so we should have some more friends
joining us on the panel as well but i have not seen too much around micro strategy i am looking
at the comments down below so if anyone does put something down there, we can definitely
flow through that way.
When I look at the earnings
calendar for tomorrow, pulling up the earnings
hub, shout out.
We have Philip Morris, Under
Armor, and Centene reporting earnings.
We are through the
real thick, thick, thick. Eh, not really.
We have Robinhood next week, Ford,
part of the conversation there, Cloudflare. Eh, not really. We have Robinhood next week, Ford, part of the conversation there,
Cloudflare, Shopify, McDonald's,
etc., all reporting earnings next week.
There's a lot of names.
When I
look at the 52-week high list
and low list, I actually did 52-week lows
and all-time highs. I just want to
read up a couple of these popular names that are
on these lists. 52-week lows,
we had PayPal, DraftKings, Hems, Pinterest, Snapchat, ServiceNow, Spotify,
a few others, but those are the popular names.
On the all-time high list, yes, there was a couple names in this market.
We did have Walmart, McDonald's, Coca-Cola, FedEx, Johnson & Johnson,
all hitting those new all-time highs deer as well so old
boring names hitting all-time highs i actually got to use a photograph of warren buffett i mean i i
i don't mean to call him old and boring but it kind of just happened there but it's a picture
of him eating a mcdonald's hamburger with a coca-cola pop it's just kind of a perfect one so
yeah obviously bitcoin's moving lower what's up sniper um there's something interesting about micro strategy you know that i or strategy or whatever
we call that company now um that i haven't heard anybody mention yet but um micro strategy owns
713 502 bitcoins for a total value of 54. billion. And their average price for Bitcoin or their average cost is at $76,052.
We're well below their average, which is pretty interesting.
Yeah, they do update that every single Monday.
So, yeah, they are down a little bit.
But we've gone through this.
We had Jay SpecialSits come on the spaces.
He was pretty adamant that there really isn't like a takeout level or something like that for Bitcoin.
Where it's going to, for a sale or a reason, that's like liquidated Bitcoin to fill all these covenants and stuff.
That they'll be able to get creative with it pretty much no matter what.
And yeah, I'd imagine.
I don't even know what the MNAV is at.
But yeah.
Strategy.
A lot of that MNAV was trading at a 2-3 mnav was trading at a 2-3 value
to the underlying crypto on its balance sheet and it's probably trading a little bit under it right
now would be my guess hey let me shout out a name that i mentioned about two weeks ago on spaces
it's part of the andrel uh supplier chain thing racking He cut out.
Yeah.
this one's OPTX.
It's up 15% today,
52 week highs up almost a hundred percent since I mentioned it on spaces. So just something to keep an eye on.
I mean,
now that we've gotten all of the,
the mag seven kind of out here
except for nvidia we're still waiting on them what's your thoughts my big takeaway coming out
of this is the big capex spend i'm looking now at meta's 125 billion and it looks a little bit
less than some of these other ones although meta is spending a little different than google and
amazon but it's
a very interesting earnings season so far as monitib likes to point out the numbers across
the board are pretty strong we're growing in double digits the economy right now or i'm sorry
corporate companies sp500 earnings are growing double digits strong investing heavily sure yeah
maybe today's capex today's investments are tomorrow's write-downs.
But at least they're doing it in a tax write-off way.
I'm sure these are going to have some really low tax rates going forward.
But I wonder if you're, as you're kind of looking at all the earnings,
most of the MAG7 out, if there's one or two thoughts in the back of your mind,
nagging there a little bit.
Maybe it's CapEx, maybe it's something with Meta.
I know we maybe talked about this, but I'm curious if there's any thoughts that come to mind there
you know when when uh all of this spending started roughly three years ago uh it was
there was good reason to be super skeptical and you know wonder if ai was going to be a bubble
you know, wonder if AI was going to be a bubble. But as we now have had three years of results,
what we're seeing is that these companies' revenues is growing faster than ever.
You know, in cases like Meta, for example, they have zero revenue from AI products itself. So
the revenue growth is not just circular. It's not some BS thing. AI is literally helping them serve better ads, more targeted ads. It's improving their revenue and company in all kinds of ways.
they're getting revenue. Well, the same is not true, but Google is getting actual revenue dollars
from their AI products, but also all of their other products are growing faster.
So, you know, the results are speaking for themselves. So it does not concern me now
that they're like increasing their capex spends. If, you know, if you were running these companies,
would you do anything differently? Like, no, I don't think you would, because it's the smart thing to do.
If the, if, if the investments you've made over the past three years are, are already
paying off, then why would you turn off that knob?
Uh, you wouldn't, you would, you would accelerate that knob until it's, it stops sort of like
producing more.
So, you know, I'm kind of bullish as I have seen the results.
It does seem like the constraints are going to be more external, meaning like power constraints for transformer constraints for creating power
or memory chip supply shortages for bringing on more
GPUs. So the constraints might actually be sort of like physical limitations of how much can
the world produce on all of these products that we need to bring more and more AI capabilities,
because certainly the appetite for more AI capabilities is there.
So from my standpoint, it's pretty exciting.
I'm out of this sort of like Mega or the Magnificent 7, the Mag 7 companies.
My favorite is Meta, just because they're the ones who are growing the fastest and they are growing the
fastest without any revenue yet from AI products. And they're making one of the largest investments
in AI and putting together one of the most capable AI teams. And all of those products
and potential revenue is going to come in the future so all of
that is gravy for meta as opposed to everybody else so that's the reason i like meta the most
um so i'm heavily invested in them
i appreciate the answer there hamid i do want to make sure everyone knows. Go and follow me. He's awesome. Check him out. Montev, you got your hand up?
Yeah, just a slightly different opinion there.
I agree that the AI bubble theory is probably long shot now, and it's validated itself as producing results clearly.
results clearly. So we're past that point. But given the scale of spend that we are doing,
So we're past that point.
I think there's going to be fewer winners than everybody getting huge benefits out of this,
especially let's limit just to the hyperscaler, neoscaler market, right?
You cannot really match
the scale of Microsoft, AWS,
I mean, Amazon and
Google, you know,
whether it's
size efficiency, economies
of scale, or cost of
raising funds, or
the ability to actually get approvals.
And in the case of Google, I actually
tweeted about this yesterday, is they have the largest dark fiber backhaul capacity of anyone
out there. And what they don't own, they have long-term contracts to fill in the gaps.
So there are some incredible advantages that the hyperscalers have
that I think you're going to start to see the margin differentiation
start to creep up wider and wider between the hyperscalers and neoscalers.
Who are the other scalers?
The smaller ones, right?
The smaller ones, right?
Corweave, Nebius, or any of these Bitcoin miner-turned data centers.
Corweave.
Oh, Corweave.
Right.
I haven't even looked at any of those others.
I thought that Corweave was a provider of equipment, not data center operator.
But yeah, I mean,
like I tend to agree. But what you're saying essentially is that the Mag7 have a huge
advantage over everybody else. And I tend to agree. Some of the advantages might, you know, go away to some extent if, well, as the capacity catches up
and then the availability of renting basically AI becomes greater or cheaper and cheaper.
So, you know, that might take still a few years for that catch up to happen.
But yeah, it's right now, Google, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta are in fantastic position.
Yeah, but but but Hamid, I look at it actually opposite of what you just said, right?
As the cost, as the as the per unit realization drops, these companies have already probably got
most of their cash out of it and it's already depreciated well enough that they can bring
those costs down without impacting their margin.
Versus a smaller company, not only do they have longer depreciation cycle but a higher cost of capital and a higher cost of implementation and a lower volume to
write it off from from their customers right so so it's it's just going to
become very difficult to compete with the larger ones right it's just I I don't
see how you know they stand alone for a long time if the market doesn't expand to
fill everybody's capacity for a long, long, long time to come.
I mean, clearly the market has sensed that with Oracle, which is why their debt is trading
as shit right now.
All right, I do want to give you guys a one or two minute warning. We are going to shift the
conversation up a little bit at that point. This is why I've been trying to make sure that you guys
all know that these speakers have been amazing. Everyone is welcome to stay up here. Again,
there's earnings calls starting up. We are going to talk a little bit here about e-commerce,
a little bit more on the international side. I thought it was pretty interesting to
give in those Amazon earnings.
Talk a little Mercado Libre.
Talk a little bit about Alibaba.
Maybe we even talked a little bit.
I know there's like the Jumias of the world.
Thought today could be an interesting point
for that conversation.
But you should make sure that you are following
all of the amazing speakers up here.
Hamid, Monitiv, Brian,
that Wolf Defense account are all fantastic.
I appreciate them for joining in.
Shout out to that Wolf account up here. You should make sure that you guys, if you enjoy
this type of live free conversations, you
are following that account.
And then obviously, every
single Monday through Thursday, 3 to 5 p.m. Eastern
at least, we are live right here
on Stocks on Spaces, the host of
this Spaces. If you want to see this on
your timeline, if you want a conversation
talking about the stock market with smart people every single monday through thursday follow this account you
should even hit that bell button and turn on notifications we really don't post that much at all
except for uh when these spaces are coming up or when the spaces happen but i do appreciate everyone
for for joining in on this one uh mead if there is any
kind of like finalish words again like i don't i don't wanna you're not getting kicked off but
the conversation might shift a little bit so if there's any final words on this one that you
wanted to make sure you share here um yeah i'd love to hear it no i i don't i don't have any
sort of final uh words but uh thank you for having me and it's actually perfect timing I'm about to go work out so what are we getting in the gym today yeah well I
work out at home so it's I have a little home gym set up that that I do
work out you do some calisthenics we lift the weights we run on the treadmill
swimming some laps it's weights and. And the cardio is mostly boxing.
But, yeah, it's...
Do you do any VR boxing?
I do, actually.
I think there's a
product on the Quest called...
Guerrilla the Fight?
I think it's Supernatural,
which is, like,
sort of a video game boxing type
of thing. And
you're not boxing as if you're boxing another human,
but it's these things coming at you and you're punching them.
They actually, Meta just canned the project,
which was very sad actually from my perspective.
I've been using that product for about four years now,
and it's phenomenal, absolutely phenomenal.
It's a fantastic workout, but I also do boxing on the bags and I used to do Thai boxing at the gym as well. So it's a lot
of fun. I've been doing MMA for some time. But yeah, no, as far as investing goes,
days like today are obviously tough.
Yesterday or this week,
the past couple of weeks
have been relatively tough.
I mean, the way that I try
to sort of like balance it
is that these are all temporary
and then we die.
So don't sweat it too much.
You know, you got to enjoy the journey.
Bye everyone.
Thanks for having me.
Appreciate you for joining in, as always.
And might I say, I actually really do enjoy the VR boxing.
It's a good workout.
It's entertaining.
And boy, do I get winded after.
The one I play is like throwing the fight.
It's against a person.
Nice.
I'll have to try that do
get really sweaty though and those those headsets get kind of gross
moving on on this one monitor if anything you want to leave the people
with here no but I'd like to listen to what cream shares us to see yeah I am
excited I think if they are down there, you guys should. You are coming in and request to speak up here from the Crane Shares team.
I'm very excited for this conversation here.
We're going to be talking a little bit China.
We're going to be talking a little bit about e-commerce.
Obviously, Amazon reporting earnings here.
We talked a lot about from the perspective of the cloud division, because that is where a lot of the growth, that is where a lot of their profit margin is from, is that segment. But everyone
knows Amazon. Everyone uses them every single day because of their e-commerce business. So I'm
excited to talk a little bit about that there. But I want to read one or two things before we
get into this conversation here and make sure that we can talk a little bit of those CraneShares tickers.
But again, I appreciate everyone for joining in.
I hope you stick with us for this next conversation.
But you should at least make sure that you are following the speakers up here.
We're going to talk a little tickers here.
And investors should carefully consider a fund's investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before investing.
funds, investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A fund's prospectus
and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the ETFs from CraneShares.
To obtain a fund's prospectus and key information documents, visit the website at
craneshares.com. A fund's prospectus and key information document should be read carefully
before investing. We are excited to be working with the CraneShares team. I would like to also add that we are going to be talking maybe a little
bit about some 2X single stock ETFs in here that they have. And just know that when you guys are
talking about there, there is a little bit of extra nuances within those daily resets,
all that stuff there. And you should really know what you guys are getting into. So our goal is to
try and create knowledgeable investors. And you guys should definitely do your research into some stuff like that. I have a tweet pinned up in the nest above. I'm about to post a
link down below in the comment section. But I do see the Crayon Shares team up here. I'd love to
hear who we have from the team up here first. Hi there. It's Henry Green. Hello, Mr. Senior
Investment Strategist. Yeah. How are you?
I'm doing fantastic, Henry. We appreciate you for joining us on here.
I would love to just kick right into it. Start a little bit in a different direction on just the e-commerce department.
Obviously, you guys have a lot of ETFs in the China area in the e-commerce part, but Amazon is the big dog around the world, the biggest dog around the world.
They actually reported more revenue than Walmart this past year in 2025, so it's now the largest company in that
department. So I wonder if you guys have any thoughts around Amazon from the perspective
of that e-commerce segment. Yeah, I am just digesting the Amazon earnings myself. It looks like they are putting out that they're going to spend more.
Yeah, so CapEx.
Their margins are low, right?
Yeah, I mean, it's interesting.
I think that Amazon is seeing, they might be seeing, like, you know,
companies like Alibaba, which we look at very
closely, right, are, you know, e-commerce giants so that they're an e-commerce giant.
But they've really kind of flipped their own script to become, as far as investors in the
markets are concerned, in AI play, which has been really beneficial for their stock price.
which has been really beneficial for their stock price.
And so maybe Amazon sees something like that
and thinks they should do more in AI.
I don't know.
Just an idea.
They are spending big on the CapEx.
I'm interested to see what they're doing there.
Their online stores segment,
which is obviously all this e-commerce,
brought in $83 billion during the past quarter, which was up from $75.6 billion in the same quarter last
year. So some decent growth numbers there from Amazon. But I want to talk a little bit more
about e-commerce around the world. Now, obviously, Alibaba, Pinduoduo, MercadoLibre, a lot of these names are e-commerce names. MercadoLibre feels like that's what we mostly talk about, and maybe Pinduoduo as well. But obviously, Alibaba, trying to get that AI kind of sheen on it a little bit. in this area tweets pinned up in the nest above if people do enjoy trading any of the 2x ETFs
obviously you guys have a 2x Hinduo duo ETF K P D D a 2x Melly ETF K M L I and then a 2x Alibaba
ETF K B a B so you can kind of really get that trend there but I'm curious on what you guys are seeing on e-commerce around the world in general.
Yeah, sure. So in China, we've seen very intense competition for what we like to call the instant commerce segment, which has really put pressure on margins for many of the top players in China's e-commerce industry.
So some of you may have seen Meituan, which is a top holding in K-Web.
Actually, they have like drone delivery now, and they even have kiosks in parks where you
can receive goods via drone.
And so lots of innovations happening there.
But other platforms see this and they're all getting in on the action.
And that's what's been going on kind of for the past few quarters.
And they're spending a lot of money.
They're subsidizing users' orders where, you know,
you could basically get like a coffee for free all over the place.
And so that's really weighed on
margins. But we think the worst of that is over. And so in this earnings season, we're going to be
looking for that real margin improvement, profitability improvement. So definitely profits
top of mind in China right now. And also growth. Also the pie, the e-commerce pie, the total e-commerce
penetration, so to speak, hasn't been growing as fast as it did in the, let's say, 2015, 2021,
2022 period over the past, you know, what is that, four years. And so we're also looking to see that pie begin to expand again.
And that's in China, right? Elsewhere in the world, there's a lot of opportunities for penetration,
a lot of nascent e-commerce markets. We really like Mercado Libre in Latin America,
given their wide footprint in many different countries.
Also, the improving economic situation in Argentina is very positive for that company as well.
That's been a very large market for them, spanning in Mexico too.
Yeah.
And so e-commerce is interesting. I think it's still I think it's the transmission engine for the developing world, for the emerging markets. in those markets, not only China, I'm also talking about India, some Latin American,
Southeast Asian countries. Really, I think e-commerce is the way to go.
What's your latest thoughts on China in general right now? Obviously, we're in a very interesting
place between the US and China from a trade perspective.
And I don't know if I hear the other side of it that much.
So I'm curious on what's been going on
with the Chinese economy in general.
Has it kind of been in a growth area?
Has it been struggling?
Obviously, we've also been hearing a lot
about the US seller.
Are you curious where the kind of yuan is at
and stuff like that?
I might have said the wrong thing.
Is it the Chinese yuan or is that Japan? Yeah, yuan is at and stuff like that. I might have said the wrong thing. Is it the Chinese yuan or is that Japan?
Yeah, yuan is correct.
It's funny, there are different names
for the currency.
Yuan is
fine.
What would be correct though? What would I impress someone with?
There's not...
Renminbi is the official name.
Gotcha.
Yuan just means yuan just means
like buck in chinese like it's you know what i mean as opposed to like u.s dollar
does that make sense yeah that does yeah okay um anyway um yeah so China's economy grew at 5% in 2024, 2025, excuse me.
And that's okay, right?
It's not super high.
It's not low either, right? you're not going to see the things that's happening in China that has happened in the recent probably two or three years is headline growth is going to be slower.
They have matured to a point where you're not going to see those 10, 11, 12% GDP growth rates
anymore. So those days are over. Okay. But that's headline growth. Okay. That's not what we need to
worry about anymore. Right. Or that's not, that's not what we need to worry about anymore, right? Or that's not
that's not where the opportunity is anymore. The opportunity now in China, as far as we can see,
is in specific growth areas of the economy, specific areas like technology,
which includes hardware and shipmakers, which includes electric vehicles, which includes
e-commerce, AI, large language models, right? These are the areas where you're going to see
growth and that are worth looking at for investment in China. You're not going to see
real estate growing at a breakneck pace anymore. The government did a very, I mean, did a good job
to do something that was, you know, a lot of people would say was bad for the economy,
but did a good job at deleveraging that sector, just basically cutting it off at its knees.
It was over leveraged. It was too much. It was too great a part of the economy. And they did this in order to basically migrate capital into more productive areas such as
technology, such as high-end manufacturing, etc.
So that's really where you want to look in China.
When you're looking at investing in China today, when you're looking at China's economy
China's economy today, you're going to see pockets of really, really strong growth.
today, you're going to see pockets of really, really strong growth.
But that headline growth, just given the maturation of the economy, you can't expect it to be
going back to the levels we saw in like the 2010s, right?
So that's just a fact.
That doesn't mean to be short China.
We're still very constructive on China and continue to be.
Obviously, that's part of our business.
But we still see investors looking into China.
We still see lots of opportunities for growth.
But it's all, I got to tell you, it is all in these more specialized areas.
And that's really important to remember.
And yeah, in terms of US dollars, so the renminbi or yuan has done pretty well against the US dollar.
I don't know off the top of my head what the percentage gain it was in 2025.
I think it was in the realm of 5-10% versus against the US dollar, the greenback, right?
So that's pretty positive for if you're investing in companies that have their revenue denominated
in renminbi, right, from a US dollar base.
And we've seen the dollar decline against global currencies as well.
So that's had an impact on capital flows.
We track ETF flows in Europe, for example, and flows to China via ETFs in Europe were about $7 billion in 2025. And there were only
1 billion coming from the United States. Right. And then we suspect that a lot of that was European actually rotating out of dollar denominated, dollar based investments into renminbi investments,
Chinese investments. And that's, of course, driven by if you're coming from euro,
you saw your, for instance, S&P gains severely diminished by the dollar euro cross, but just because the
euro gained so much versus the US dollar in 2025, you're just seeing those gains diminished. In
some cases, if you come from like Swiss franc or Swedish corona, almost completely wiped out,
okay? So that's a big deal, right? I mean, the U.S. is still number one. You know, I'm a proud American.
U.S. is number one for innovation, especially in AI right now.
But China's very close.
China's close second, okay?
And if you're looking for that kind of growth,
you're looking for those growth opportunities,
you're looking to access that innovation.
There's very few other places in the world you can go
but one of them is
definitely China
and that is
and we've been saying this for a while now
but now we're really seeing it impact
capital flows
I think the currency dynamics of this one are
a very interesting one
it's been like this always
it's very interesting the stories of one year currency are very interesting one. And it's been like this always. And it's just been, it's very
interesting. The stories of one year and currency are
very different than the stories in the next year.
Yeah.
Monitive.
Go for it. Go for it. Sorry.
No, no, no.
You go ahead. I was just reminding.
I wanted to bring Monitive into this and see if you
have any thoughts, any questions you want to throw
over.
I know you're watching the whole world.
I actually have a lot of questions. So a couple of things.
You know, we have talked about the data center thematic here.
That's multiple industries all building, you know, that entire data center from ground up, whether it's the industrial side of it
with, you know, with electrical, HVAC, you know, the actual physical building itself
or the, you know, or the technology side of it, the networking, the storage, the memory, the processors and stuff. We've seen phenomenal interest in the U.S. and Western-based suppliers of this entire thematic.
What about a similar supply base outside of the names that we know of already in China?
names that we know of already in China, how do you get hold of, you know, or how do you
invest in, you know, a wider basket of stocks that supply into the data center thematic?
Yeah, that's a great, sorry, did the host want to speak?
No, it was you, sir.
Yeah, I think that's a great, sorry, did the host want to speak? No, it was you, sir. Yeah, I think that's a great question.
I think that, so we have in KWeb, I got to check, we have a couple, historically, we've
had a couple smaller cap names that are in the data center business that are publicly
center business that are publicly traded. I got to check if those are actually still in the
traded.
I got to check if those are actually still in the portfolio.
portfolio. But on a larger scale, I think just macro, you want to be invested in data centers
need energy. And so just in terms of why China is a good place to have them and they have an
advantage is just because the cost of energy is so much lower.
Right, and so that's why you wanna be invested there
in this, for this data center industry.
I don't off the top of my head
have a specific name to give you.
I know there was, we used to have a company called 21 Vionet
doing data centers. I think Kingsoft also is one of the Kingsoft
are are are involved in this i think everybody's kind of getting involved in the data center game
group holdings is involved in data centers as well. But also the large conglomerates are involved in this. I think everybody's kind of getting involved in the data center game
uh because it's becoming so important uh for artificial intelligence um i guess the question is
um you know given like yes okay china has this energy advantage right uh versus united states
versus europe um okay you know who's gonna be be the winner here? There are a lot of smaller cap data center
names. And yeah, I don't have the answer to that question. I think it's a very diverse market
for that in China. And I don't have specific names to give you, you know, a couple that I mentioned.
But, you know, I think also energy is a good angle to look at for data centers, you know, specifically renewable energy, just because they're going to drive up demand.
nuclear energy for special supply provisions for their data centers that are, of course,
powering their AI efforts.
And so that's going to be a key way to play this.
And look at this.
We have an ETF called KGRN.
That's the ticker. It's China Clean Technology.
That's the ticker.
It's China Clean Technology.
And you can consider that it's basically an energy play in the renewable space in China.
So you might want to check that out.
I think it's interesting. I would like to research that theme more.
I think maybe we could get some product development around that.
Right on.
That's, I think we have very few good thematic ETFs for China.
We have a lot of tech ETFs, right?
But just that's really lifting.
That's a lot in one area when the growth is only part of that sector, right?
I mean, yeah, the China tech has performed incredibly well and has come back dramatically
in the last year.
But if you just take a slice of that that's related to some of the hottest parts of tech,
you're going to find that growth is even higher.
So it would certainly be valuable to get a,
you know, get not just this, right?
There's a lot of thematics that are pretty hot now.
So it would be nice to have, you know,
thematics get launched as the theme gets,
you know, as the theme gets important.
Yeah, I agree.
I agree.
Yeah, like I said,
there's a lot of product development ideas
I'm just having right now,
which is what we do, so
stay tuned.
Can you tell me more why you
guys chose, and Monty
definitely can come back to you.
Obviously everyone knows KWeb, the China Internet ETF, you guys chose and monster definitely can come back to you you guys have obviously everyone
knows K web the China the China internet ETF the crane shares China internet ETF you guys
have definitely put a lot of focus in on the China area of the world he tell me a little bit more why
like obviously you explained it a little bit more talking earlier how they're kind of second place
and a lot of these things there's even some areas that they're first place and um yeah i'm not going to say that again i'm going to say america first but
i'm kidding uh but there are definitely some interesting spots that they're doing really well
in so um i'd be curious on why crane shares like from a macro perspective maybe not even macro is
the right word but from a 10 000 feet view chose to kind of build that expertise in the China part of the market and bring that part to the U.S.?
Yeah, sure.
And let me first just add a corollary to my America First point earlier.
You know, China is, you know, where China is number one,
they're number one in automotive and robotics right now.
I don't think there's any debate about that.
Okay.
We're number one in a lot of...
The U.S. is number one in a lot of other things, in my opinion.
But I don't think there's any debate when it comes...
Robotics and automotive right now, China's number one, hands down.
Anyway, so Crane Shares was founded by Jonathan Crane,
who I had the pleasure of meeting back in 2019.
And he was an entrepreneur.
He's an American.
He was an entrepreneur in China in the early 2000s.
He had a company that was actually one of the first ever companies to use QR code ticketing for entertainment events.
to use QR code ticketing for entertainment events.
And through that, he developed the trust
to be able to bring international acts
like the Rolling Stones and Beyonce to China
for the first time.
He ended up selling that business to Ticketmaster
and came back to the United States
and was really interested in capital flows
between the United States and China.
And noticed that most products
that investors in the United States used to
get access to China to get that exposure. So index products and mutual funds that were going
into people's 401k accounts and emerging markets funds and everything. He said he noticed that
these were not investing in the new China. They weren't investing in the China that he experienced. They were investing
heavily in industrials and financials and energy companies. And he said, you know what, this is the
old China, not new energy companies, but, you know, like oil, Sinopec, you know, and these
big banks, big insurance companies, state owned enterprises. And he said, you know what,
this is not the growth engine of China. And this is so far away from the China that I experienced.
And so he said, you know what, I'm going to set up an ETF company that specifically will try to
correct this. And so we, you know, so now we have K-Web, right, which has become the, it's actually the largest China ETF listed here in the United States.
Obviously focusing on Internet and technology.
And then after K-Web, we launched a few other thematic strategies around China.
And then also expanded to broader emerging markets as well as some alternatives products.
Yeah, so that's kind of our story in a nutshell.
Why launch these 2X single stock ETFs?
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I haven't seen too many of these before.
This kind of latest suite that we had pinned up in the nest above.
Where does that kind of fit into the whole thesis?
Well, honestly, I'm surprised because there were a lot of them.
We've seen a lot of them popping up just from our competitors.
Right.
And so we honestly at first avoided the space, to be honest with you, and said, well, you't, we weren't sure of the value that they could
add to an investor's toolkit, right?
And then we came to a realization that, well, you know, we have very strong convictions
on these themes, right?
And we have this great kind of almost community that we've developed and cultivated, not only
of institutional investors and financial advisors, right?
So we have them too, but they're not a target audience for these ETFs, but also just individuals,
you know, really smart people who are attuned to what's going on in the world and follow
us very faithfully and appreciate our research and everything.
And we realized that this group, you know, we heard some feedback, you know, through social media as well.
And it was kind of like, OK, maybe we should look into doing the 2X space.
And so we did it very selectively. And we said, OK, we're only going to do this on for the companies that are the top. So most of them is the top of
the portfolios in K-Web and KMQ. So KMQ takes the international, sorry, takes the China,
the K-Web story of that internet and e-commerce and applies it to broader emerging markets. So
anyway, and that's how we get the KMLI for MercadoLibre.
And then we have Baidu, JD, and Alibaba as well, and PDD.
And so, yeah, and we said we're going to start with those.
We're going to focus on these because these are also the companies
that we are kind
of reporting on the most. So we said, you know, we want to be able to, if we're going to do this,
right, we want to do it for the firms that we know and we can really add value in terms of
that research value, that insight value to our investors, you know, many of whom are,
for these funds, many of whom are our individuals, right?
And we're really proud to be able to provide that for people.
And a lot of these companies, so Baidu and Alibaba for sure, we actually talk to management
periodically of these companies.
And we try to bring that knowledge back to our investors and, you know, to the benefit of
our clients. So yeah, that's kind of the story. It wasn't a linear path,
but that's kind of the story behind these. sorry got a phone call there it cuts off the mic um yeah so i apologize for that but uh
mr ryan i wonder if you have any questions here
you want to throw into the mix, any thoughts around the China market?
Yeah, sorry, I missed the first part of the conversation. I was tying up some other stuff.
I love the insights here. And what's really interesting to me is the ability to invest
in being in a US brokerage, for example, and being able to invest in some of these China things, which it seems like, and correct me if I'm wrong, but it seems like we expect them to be a leader or a competitor, either or.
And just period, when it comes to robotics, when it comes to all these different hot thematics that are going on, how do you guys create the ETFs with the investments over there?
I'm just curious, maybe from an investor standpoint, so I can understand.
When I buy K-Web or when I buy one of these other ones, like KOID, the humanoid one, whenever I buy that, you guys have exposure to a lot of these international companies, especially these Asian companies.
How do you guys create that?
You mean, right, listed where the listing is not in New York.
Yeah, like on the Hang Seng or whatever.
Are you guys holding money over there and arbitraging?
How does that kind of work?
I'm just trying to wrap my head around it.
Sure.
So we have accounts set up in Hong Kong in the various markets we trade in, right?
So for Hong Kong, we directly have an account.
And then for mainland China, so that have an account and then for mainland China.
So that's the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.
We have we use what's called Stock Connect, which is a market link between the Hong Kong market, which is still considered offshore, going into these mainland markets.
Right. So we have that all kind of set up and a lot of that set up, especially the Stock Connect,
so that's going into the mainland A share market.
A lot of that's really only, we can only do that because we're essentially an institutional
investor, right?
This would be extremely difficult, if not impossible for an individual to accomplish.
And so that's also why it's such a value add for us to then be able to distribute that access to our clients via the ETFs.
And historically, there was something called a registered qualified foreign institutional investor program.
And that has mostly been phased out and replaced with Stock Connect.
So everything we do is on Stock Connect when you're talking Shanghai and Shenzhen.
Now, the ETF create redeem process means that for, generally speaking,
when it's mainland China, because you have to understand mainland China has capital controls.
China has capital controls.
There are very strict rules about market participants and repatriation and all that kind of thing.
So for when it's mainland ETFs, so buying A shares, right?
So that's for our funds, if you're familiar with our funds.
So we have K-Star.
star. And then we also have KBA, which is the MSCI Connect 50. So top 50 overall, that's large cap.
So anyway, for those two funds, yeah, we're really adding a lot of value just by providing
that access.
Like you're not going to be able to, I mean, I don't know what your functional background
is, but in general, Americans and Europeans are not able to access those stocks.
So we provide that as a service to our clients.
And the way those work, basically, basically I mean I don't know how into
the weeds we have to get but basically we have to some ETFs create in kind which
means that they use stocks we get stocks in exchange for providing the ETF
shares these have to create in cash because we have to take the cash to go
by locally but anyway yeah I hope that helps your question.
Yeah, that was perfect.
I appreciate the scope.
And that's what makes it so attractive, I think,
at least to me personally,
because of the complications of trying to invest internationally,
but the opportunities there.
And K-Web with over 8 billion in assets at this point,
it shows how popular this is.
Sorry, Evan, I didn't mean to cut in.
I just wanted to say thank you for letting me understand that a little bit deeper here.
Of course.
Yeah, no, I'm glad that helps.
Yeah, no, I appreciate you.
Is there anything that we didn't cover on the spaces that you wish we would have talked about here?
I think we covered a lot. Obviously, we could go much longer. Unfortunately, I think this is all
the time I have right now for today. I would just say, I think on the geopolitical front,
US and China, I don't think markets are pricing in just how we're entering into a really a new era of relations, of more stable relations.
And I really do believe that. And, you know, I think you saw Trump's Truth Social or the other
day saying he met with Xi and they talked about a variety of things, Russia, Ukraine, etc., etc.
And that was really, I think, a sign of the time to come.
So anyway, thank you very much.
And I hope to be on here soon again.
I appreciate you for joining us here on this one.
Mr. Henry, shout out to that Craneshares team.
If you enjoyed this conversation, make sure you're following that account.
There's a tweet pinned up in the nest above with a couple of the ETFs that we talked here.
I put a post down in the description.
I'm actually putting it up in the nest above right now, a link to that Crane Shares website.
Like I said, our goal is to create informed investors.
If you guys have any questions that you want to ask the team next time they're on here, anything like that, go in, do your research. You can either just ask directly to them. I'm sure there's an email, DM on here anything like that go in do your research you can either just ask directly to them so there's an email dms anything like that normally do twitter dms for
etf companies there is heavily restricted so i would maybe say send an email or just send it to
us and we will ask the questions live on the spaces we appreciate the crane shares team for
coming and joining us they're also posting a lot of really great content on their account.
If you wanted to keep up with news from that China market,
they've been tweeting macro news around it,
some of the economic data points.
They've been tweeting some individual news story around names like NIO,
Xpeng, Alibaba, et cetera.
That CrainShares account is a great follow.
But I appreciate everyone for joining us in here.
Shout out to Mr. Monitive.
Fantastic addition on the spaces. He's hanging out with us for like two and a half hours up here. Great addition. follow but i appreciate everyone for joining us in here shout out to mr monitive fantastic
edition on the spaces was hanging out with us for like two and a half hours up here great addition
now i wish it was on a day where amazon was up 10 here and my portfolio was not
looking like it is right now but i do appreciate the squad for coming in hanging out you are still
in here and not following monitive not following not following that Wolf Ryan account up here.
You are completely missing out.
I'm going to close down the spaces in a second.
About 374 people.
This is the last Stocks on Spaces until Monday, until next week.
Is there anything you boys want to leave the people with here?
Any prophetic thoughts?
Yeah, Evan, I think it's time to get either Dylan or one of his people back.
He's become too big now, so you might get one of his people to come in and talk about
where the industry stands and what's changed since the last time he was here.
Who was that, Dan?
Dylan, Dylan.
Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.
I would love to get Sammy analysis on.
I'll ping him.
You will ping him.
Yeah, that'd be great.
He was a fantastic on this conversation.
It's actually funny.
We were at GTC in DC, and I said this before.
Dylan got the chance to ask Jensen a question in a press keynote,
and he was the only one who got a, hey, I know you,
type reaction from Jensen.
That's kind of cool.
Yeah, he's a very big deal now.
So, yeah, I'm not sure he's gonna make it but but
i'm certain he can send somebody from his team it's got a big team now yeah chat to semi-analysis
a really great research firm doing some some very uh high level research in the semiconductor space
respected by a bunch of people we've had dylan on hopefully we can get some more people on in
the near future it's always a great conversation i know a lot of people. We've had Dylan on. Hopefully we can get some more people on in the near future.
It's always a great conversation.
I know a lot of people are really interested in semiconductors.
Actually, on the Wolf YouTube page,
Yav and Jose Narajo,
they did go through and do a little bit of a recap
on AMD's earnings.
If you wanted to hear more about AMD's numbers,
which came out the other day,
live on the Wolf YouTube page. Jonathan Monitiv, thank you, sir, for being here. I appreciate
you. I always enjoy the earnings rundowns, the super tech knowledge. I know I'm coming to you
on Google. I like the defense talk. Great addition to the spaces, sir. I appreciate you being here.
great addition to the spaces there
I appreciate you being here
Ryan anything any famous last words
who's going to win the Super Bowl this weekend
how do you say yes in Spanish
Hawks
I get it
do you think the Seahawks are going to win
yeah Seahawks
by a billion
oh okay how do you say see I get it The Seahawks are going to win? Yeah, Seahawks by a billion.
Oh, okay. How do you say C?
I get it. I get it. How do you say yes in Spanish?
Seahawks.
Gotcha.
Okay, with that,
I don't think the Patriots win it. I'll take the Seahawks.
It's either Sam Darnold or the Patriots win.
I'll take Sammy D.
Sam Darnold's going to keep the Patriots
in the game, but
Seahawks defense
is going to shut them down.
Go Jets. Have a great one,
everyone. Crane shares tweets
pinned up in the nest above
with the website if you guys want to go in and do your
research. We appreciate them for joining
and supporting the team.
Helping us keep these stocks on spaces for free forever.
We've literally been doing this for three years right now.
Which is crazy. Almost four
I believe. So yeah.
I appreciate everyone.
One more time. We'll say follow Monty.
Follow Ryan.
Follow that Wolf account.
We're great with everybody.
I hope you guys enjoy whatever time.
Let's hope tomorrow is a green day.
Let's give us a little release, you know?
Let's go up in some of these high beta names.
Amazon reversal question mark would be strong.
Let's pull a Google.
Have a great one, everyone.
Go Jets.
Oh, boy.
Frank almost got me to buy some BMR today.
I didn't do it, though.
Yeah, no.
