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Axiom Insider Trading, Halo Stocks, and Claude’s World Domination
Recorded: Feb. 26, 2026 Duration: 0:42:50Space Recording
Full Transcription
are we on we just cut straight to it without an intro yeah i know that's fine we'll run it how
are you doing good it's been a while since
we've done one of these yeah both uh had fucking weird shit happening so um yeah going good these
stories these stories are writing themselves both have been going through like like minor scale
natural disasters too you with the earthquake and me with the blizzard in new york so yeah i was like
all right i'm gonna
sit in my my wife and daughter aren't here over the weekend i'm gonna get i'm gonna sit here i'm
gonna get stuck into open claw i'm gonna do like do all this my mac mini arrived we had like minor
scale earthquake and like all the internet around the area was just like nah not happening try to
run everything on on hot spot just no so totally unproductive but uh yeah we've got some
fucking hilarious stories um yeah these are writing themselves we didn't have to do any
prep as per usual but uh the axiom news just dropped the sack xbt yeah that that was hilarious
because i remember seeing a tweet like three days ago being like yo the insider trader on whichever
like you know platform this is is definitely going to insider trade Polymarket because
those are like, you know, that's where there's some PMF.
And he actually did.
The man that actually went away to half a mil.
He's like, yeah, ZachXBT drops a long investigation against you.
And, you know, maybe the most criminal, but arguably also maybe like the most stoic Chad
thing you can do is just like, I'm going doing it who did you think it was um i feel like i shouldn't
say i feel like it gets me in a lot of trouble yeah yeah i'll tell you i think the market thought
it was you can probably go look at which on-chain exchange tokens had like a nice little candle
after the zac x XPT token dropped
because they got cleared. So I think that's those were the candidates for who the market thought it
might be. I don't think it was Pump, which seems to be like the one that was like the most like I
think there's probably a lot of stuff that Pump has done wrong. But I do know that they actually
do have an internal policy around like the coin needing to be at a certain valuation before like team members are allowed to trade it.
So I don't think it was pumper, at least not with the awareness of the founders in spite of everything else.
I didn't expect it to be Axiom, though, mainly because you would expect that like the bulk of like really valuable insider trading info came like 2024, maybe into Trump.
And then like, you you know what the fuck was
there like insider trade um like really at size um so me off as well like that i couldn't see i
couldn't see a way how like it could have been used for that but then because i was thinking
like talking launches so i was like oh it's got to be talking launch it's got to be talking
launches but obviously this is just tracking trades, yeah. Having an infinite fucking transparent backroom
and looking on the sheet of who's tracking who
and what wallets have been labeled.
I'm just like, wow.
I mean, as always, commentation to ZachXVT for doing good work
when no one maybe gives him enough of his flowers.
But, dude, it's also, yeah, it's, like, so random.
It's, like, a senior BD at Axia, of all places.
In early 2025, I'm, like, dude, you picked, like, the wrong period
to start doing this shit, dog.
Like, you should have done this shit in, like, 2024.
Like, what's going on?
Yeah, I know.
You're leaving money off the table.
I'm, like, mad that you did the crime thing we're also mad
that you did it like you're terrible you're not a good trader like um how fucking stupid have you
got a b2b in discord like on voice chat saying that shit as well you know it's hard like absolutely
but um no i mean like look i you know there was obviously like the whole you know hayden and
and melania stuff and like you know i think i believe like some members from like me euro for
example were implicated in that i i don't think probably the full extent of criminality or like
insider trading if you can call it criminality has been like thoroughly exposed from like the meme coin era right um
uh so i think you know maybe there'll be continue to be like stories as long as like
you know there's on chain is obviously not what it was there'll be stories like this coming out
it's just a memetic i think it's like
what you should expect from fair and open economic environments um but it's also like very at odds obviously with where
the industry is going right we're like on the other hand people like hip3 volumes for like you
know these rwas are taking off and like people are coming and doing serious payments and it's like
you know this kind of stuff is obviously overall the worst part about this kind of stuff obviously
you know people have lost money due to this and like whatnot. And that's really, really bad.
From an industry's perspective,
the worst stuff is like,
this is what's going to chase people away
from, you know, even if you're not building here,
like investing and taking your time
and spending it and, you know,
backing cool new projects.
So let's see.
Yeah.
Henry, Josh, can you bring that,
bring the screen up?
Because there's some,
also some funny kind of like side quest stories here.
So Devin, whose handle is Devin Insider.
Free insider info for the TL.
Axiom is not the company being referenced in ZachXPT's investigation.
Axiom no shares on Polymarket are free money.
That was 25th of February yesterday.
Basically 22 hours ago and then
update update update um and then yeah there's just some some tweets your honor my client said whoopsie
but this is the best one so mlm obviously the on-chain sleuth goat um so the guy accused
in this whole expose by zach uh this brooks guy um i i'd never came across him before previously
but use it using like linking the wallets from some certain deposit addresses
like tracing them back
they actually pulled up a polymarket profile
where you guessed it
they'd bet
let me just see if this is the right one
yeah they actually bet on
Axiom Yes Market
which obviously resolved once
Zach made this expose
so he basically in effect
I think it was like $355 once Zach made this expose. So he basically, in effect,
I think it was like 355.
Someone said 500K.
Maybe it's 500K.
I mean, I thought there was multiple wallets.
Oh, there's two wallets here.
So it's like, yeah, so nearly 500K.
So he's made like half a million from insider trading, the insider trading.
That'll pay for legal fees, supposedly.
Yeah. Like half a million from insider trading, the insider trading. That'll pay for legal fees, supposedly. Yeah, don't hit the player.
All right, so we've had like a little bit of a bounce.
Not that I think there's going to be any continuation, unfortunately, but...
We'll see. I think there's people that are split. unfortunately but we'll see i think there's people
that are split there's like people being like oh was that the bottom um like at 63 64 um
there's people being like you know has to be the bottom i don't really know what to make
news of like like let's pull up nvidia today um if we can on the chart because also can we expand the screen for the window so
yeah so like if we pull up nvidia i think on the chart like that's obviously like it had a
monstrous earning beat um uh you know uh sort of like you know did the pa didn't move i think
exactly as like people thought it would like you can see it's kind of like, you know, the PA didn't move, I think, exactly as like people thought it
would. Like you can see it's kind of like down on the day. So it was like a very seldom
use event. That's obviously not what you want to see from like a broader, you know, risk
on risk assets thing. But you know, there's an argument to be made that like, okay, maybe
flows will sort of like decorrelate now, or like not decorrelate, but like, maybe there'll
be some flows back into crypto now. I don't know. I think it's kind of like decorrelate now or like not decorrelate but like maybe there'll be some flows back into
crypto now i don't know i think it's kind of like hard to say that i think like just looking at
charts and looking at momentum we're still like clearly sort of like in a downtrend and there's
clearly some resistance um i think like in these markets it's definitely best to think about things
in terms of catalysts from like talking to good you know traders who i think are better than me
and just my own process and like you know maybe the next big catalyst would be like kevin warsh
as like a fed chair right like the announcement of that appointment um or just like announcing
that kevin warsh is the fed chair until then it's like very unclear it seems like a pretty stable
like like kind of volatile market i mean i think even if we pull up like, can we pull up like Mag7?
Or like the... Yeah.
We like zoom out, like we zoom like really out, like go to a higher timeframe.
Like, you know, I'm obviously chartist, but you know, kind of looks a little heavy here.
Obviously, like I think,, I think as everyone else,
I want markets to keep going up.
I do think they go up in the medium timeframe,
or in a long timeframe.
I don't think the AI trade is by any means done.
Maybe we can talk about Citrini's article,
but things have ran really, really hard.
I think the way that
certain assets reacted to this trading article shows that there is obviously like a lot of like
just jittery flush like retail capital in the markets right now that riding or riding these
narratives out of memetics without sort of maybe any strong conviction um so um you know, what that actually means is EBD.
Yeah, this like emergence of this halo stock thesis.
So like I'm not going to sit here and pretend that I know what I'm talking about.
I've only just stumbled across this this week.
But like in theory, the acronym is like heavy asset, low obsolescence.
So the idea is that if kind of what we're saying with nvidia if the market is looking for a reason to sell off because it feels like it's inherently inflated at
current prices i think you've kind of seen that a little bit with nvidia i know a lot of people
were long going into that a lot of net profitable traders on hyper liquid with net long going into
that there's some really really good trades that happened over there hyperdash is really really good to kind of just watch that shit play out in real time
yep um but the whole idea behind this is um heavy slash tangible assets infrastructure physical
plants railroads refineries real estate machinery um have low obstinance risks or yeah i can't
easily easily replace them so it's kind of getting back to i know your energy stocks industrials materials consumers staples defense utilities blah blah blah blah and there
seemed to be that rotation like if you go and have a little look at what's actually going on
in the market so even things like coca-cola absolutely flying exxon absolutely flying ccj
for absolutely flying like so there is this kind of indication that that might be happening
i know we spoke about apple quite a lot tim has officially cooked in my opinion now i think yeah
you've convinced me last year we were talking about like his like discipline on like uh like
capex and opex spending do you see the chart that was going really like paying off right like
it's like and you know i think they they still have enough money like i heard that apple may be investing into like so obviously i think you know
they announced that they're pairing with gemini obviously a lot of models on the iphone but they
apparently are also they are investing maybe not into the model build out but maybe something that's
just as effective in the gemini partnership and requires significantly less capex and opx
which is uh they're apparently investing into building their own localized harnesses for the just as effective in the Gemini partnership and requires significantly less CapEx and OpEx,
which is they're apparently investing into building their own localized harnesses for the local models. So like making the harnesses so that when the model interacts with your phone,
it's really good. It just doesn't feel like a, you know, another Siri, for example.
So that's like interesting too, right? Like something interesting to consider where it's
like if you're a halo asset, and especially on the consumer side,
but broadly you just have distribution in industry and you want to integrate AI,
maybe it's cheaper for you to work on building harnesses that are adaptable
to your workflows or your business than it is to go and do one yourself, right?
So it's like, know even something like caterpillar
if they're like manufacturing equipment i'm sure there's like parts of their back office or
operation where like they're going to use this right so we'll see yeah i know there was a there
was a crazy story last week that we didn't get obviously chance to cover because we didn't come
on but uh toto the toilet manufacturer out of japan Yeah. They're quite prominent all across Asia
and across the world, really.
But there was some...
Not in America, sadly,
because their toilets are excellent.
Yeah.
Honestly, since moving back from Asia,
I've got Japanese toilet seat installed again.
It's a game changer.
People who don't have Japanese toilet seat
are fucking barbaric.
That's one of the things I've heard about Asia, man.
Japanese toilets everywhere. But yeah, there was a component of the ceramics that were ideal for allowing like micro like engineering at the
chip level that some guy had kind of like written to toto manufacturing and being like you guys are
in like a huge picks and shovels play with regards to like how you can slot
yourselves into this AI arm trace.
Yeah.
And it ripped, which is fucking hilarious.
But yeah, there was another one as well.
I can't really remember something to do with Wafers, but I can't remember what.
It was some kind of like intangible correlation back to it.
But yeah, people are like clutching at straws now to find these like weird
memetic type players yeah no i mean i think that's been like the name of the game right it's like
go down the ai supply bottleneck go find like some small company that like fix that bottleneck
or go down the defense bottleneck and like find some supplier and like because the overlying like
you know nvidia is like pumping these things should also be pumping with a
thing.
I think that will continue to be the trade, frankly.
If NVIDIA's revenue tells anything, I have to look at NVIDIA backlogs.
I actually didn't get a chance to go look at the full earnings.
Like the say I trade as far from over i actually really like can we pull up um citadel
did like a um a commentary i wouldn't call it a rebuke but a commentary on citrini's 2028 thesis
um like citadel securities like ken kenny g um i think if you go to citadel securities.com
like their blog they may go down if you go yeah they should have writing uh let me see maybe maybe yeah it should be at the website uh yeah how crazy is like
how viral that article went i mean dude it's motion
fuck me man it's a trainee has motion that is true i'll go up go up go no all right let me go
find it one second yeah it's just like how like i know x are obviously pushing articles now so
they get that additional juice because they want to be sub stack at this at present but um yeah
that hit like fucking 37 million impressions or some
shit like that's that's next up like the next level distribution i mean look it's a my take is
um it is more likely than the skeptics would like to admit and less likely than the supporters want to admit.
Right.
But I don't think it warranted the reaction in public markets.
And I think that some of the examples in the article are suboptimal.
But I do think overall, it was actually an incredibly well thought out scenario.
Right.
I think like obviously bashing.
But I actually found, I mean mean there was a bunch of good
constructive you know pushbacks against it um citadels is one of like the clearest and most
straightforward um they made a lot of great points where it's like um you know ai adoption has been
like somewhat linear in terms of like workplace um in terms of actual workplace usage um generally
like technological diffusion follows an S-curve.
So there's like an explosive growth scenario.
So like, you know, an S-curve is like that, right?
We're probably like somewhere here, but we're not like here.
We're about to be here, but there's going to be a point in which we're here.
You know, if you do believe that like AI is, again, like AI could be a lot of paradigm
breaking, right?
It could break a lot of paradigm breaking right it could break a
lot of paradigms for sure it really is like all of this is very just conditional on the labs right
like how how good they can how hard they can cook or want to cook but it's also interesting
that in the age of AI that there has been an increase in the number of businesses. One thing that Citadel noted was
there's been a year-on-year increase
in the number of software engineers, I believe.
Yeah, job posting for software engineers
have rised rapidly up to 11% year-on-year,
which is very interesting considering
what the inverse would say.
So it's really hard to say.
I do just think the most critical argument is, like,
it takes an incredible amount of electricity and energy and compute
in data centers to actually go out and replace all of these jobs
that the Citrini report, you know, sort of hinges on.
And that is, like, the fundamental barrier.
Because if the compute is so expensive, there's a point at which,
I mean, Citadel notes this, the compute is actually more expensive than the cost of labor, right?
And for example, there are certain, like, outsourced business processes that go to, like, you know, cheap offshore labor where, like, an AI is still, on an accuracy-weighted basis, still, you know, more expensive than, like, a foreign worker, right?
Which drastically is changing and
that's diminishing with the day but we'll see i don't know what are your thoughts yeah i mean
like i think we're like even just speaking from first-hand experience currently so like all our
teams on claude teams like as a shared workspace and stuff like that and it's you've probably still
got a lot of people just still trying to figure this shit out um if you magnify that up
where you've got teams of i don't know think of like docusign who've got like 7 000 employees i
don't know how they've got 7 000 employees but are all those effectively actually using ai to
the degree that is probably getting touted by in the citrini report like probably not um and at what point does it get to a situation where you literally got
um benchmarks against how much like human productivity output versus like what the
token cost is actually costing you so it's like one's going to nullify the other with regards to
like if your token expense is higher than what you would actually get from just employing another
person maybe overseas or even in-house so i feel like those conversations are starting to happen like are we
actually being more efficient or is it are we just kind of getting places quicker but more expensive
um all that to say i think like model cost and inference is going to probably come down over time
but it's going to take a long long time to get there i feel like there's a shit ton of more jobs
that we can't even begin to imagine like what those job specs would actually
look like but that will emerge if we actually get to this promised land of what the journey is
actually mentioning yeah and also there's been like a huge policy push for like re-industrialization
right like yeah factory in arizona i think that there's been a huge influx of investment because
like when you look at private capital markets it's like okay we can continue to invest in the ai
craze and like maybe that'll pay out um but as valuations get more and
more observed like the clearest thesis for like you know to your point about halo industries for
where private capital should deploy is like really hard industries doing hard things that use hardware
and like have a lot of like on the ground lift um and so that's why we've also just seen like
a massive flux into like space and bio and like all
these things right um manufacturing like all these sort of companies operating these things
that benefit from ai but you know we're far away from being like ai go build me a rocket right um
i also think there's like other industries that people you know like we could not have foreseen
all the jobs that were created just purely within the AI industry for that skill set and expertise.
Right. And then you go look at like something like Quantum releasing probably something very, very soon on Quantum next week.
So stay tuned for that. But you go look at something like a Quantum and Quantum quietly had like one of the best years ever.
the best years ever. Like in 2025, we broke through things that researchers that have
literally like blocked researchers for 30 years, right? Which is this thing called like below
threshold, like error correction, which is like, you have like these quantum bits, these qubits,
how do you actually like get it so that, you know, by adding more qubits, you actually get
more useful computation in short, like in a very,
and no one talks about that, right? And so like, we're actually seeing that, for example,
the quantum industry is accelerating, maybe partly help by AI, but generally from like research investment, right? Like major players like DARPA and Honeywell are investing in it.
And you know, when that industry comes to bear, like that's gonna be a lot of new jobs, right?
Like one of the biggest challenges in the industry is like, there's actually like a very distinct
lack of like quantum aware engineers and software developers right so i i think that one of the other good
rebuttals i saw i forgot who it was by like mentions that with this wave of industrialism
with this wave of new companies um it's also not pricing in like you know maybe by automating a
lot of digital work you know a very developed country like america is actually freed up to
think about their industrial needs and also freed up to allocate resources to industrial needs right maybe like you have
a digital worker that's used to making a shit ton of money um you know won't get that in software
but maybe they will you know i think there was like this good point like maybe they will at like
the north carolina kind of like not north california like desalination or something like that right um and so you know i think that
yeah it's also just really hard to see how ai is going to expand new industries and change new
jobs i don't think it's a doomer as she says to be clear i think he prefaces it by saying like
they don't think it's super likely in as doom as they say but yeah what um so who's the major players that would i know we can speak about this more extensively
next week um but who's the major players in the in the quantum side like if you still got
i know google did a lot of work over there like who's the mid players that people would recognize
yes google as well continuum seems to be pretty ahead um they obviously have a lot of publicity
and like unlike a lot of quantum companies,
they have actually hit their roadmaps that they have set out consistently.
Google was the one who achieved with willow below threshold error correction.
But Quantinuum was the one who achieved what we call a two-to-one physical qubit to logical qubit ratio.
Basically, physical qubits are actually these little quantum
particles that can be zero and one at the same time. Because they're noisy and they're very
delicate in a way, you need to have a bunch of them to get one actual logical qubit. So you need
to have a bunch of them that you can aggregate behavior to get one logical qubit. Google solution uses a thousand physical qubits, logical qubit, because Continuum
uses a different modality for that. They got two to one, right? But each sort of approach has its
own trade-offs and gets a lot more complicated than that. I mean, there's obviously some,
and Honeywell is the majority owner of Continuum
after the last round.
You know, there's, I think, some sort of, like, other,
you know, big players there.
So, like, you know, IonQ has been doing a bunch of,
like, acquisitions.
I don't know if, like, a lot of, like, super groundbreaking research.
Microsoft has its own quantum research institute they actually are experimenting with ways to um
have certain types of like particles that exhibit quantum behavior but are actually like stable and
don't show errors um so you know they release results on it but a lot of physicists push back
um you have some like other interesting places, like these things called silicon spin qubits
that basically try and get qubits
from this spin state of electrons in normal atoms.
So you have people like Intel and Dirac doing this.
It's the newest approach,
but the very interesting thing about that approach
is that if it works,
you can use existing semi-fabs to go make quantums,
which would help with scale,
versus Google requires probably what most people are familiar with which is like very like super cool like super
conducting like ion setups and um continuum dis trapped ion which requires like a bunch of lasers
and shit like that um so I want them to work on an interesting like photonic approach that could
also be like somewhat scalable with existing semi-fabs um yeah honestly i'm surprised that there's no sort of situational or i was surprised
there was no situational awareness style report on like the quantum computing industry so that's
what's going to probably be launching next monday um so uh yeah yeah yeah well people will enjoy reading it yeah awesome um all right so
where do you think we're at from with inside our tiny little crypto industry
i think do you think this is like just the new norm do you still think there's like a lot of
value compression across the boards it still play out? Do you think we just see drastically reduced amount of tokens coming to market?
Not just because the market's more turbulent, but because I've been thinking about more like
there's a path that wasn't necessarily so popular previously with regards to like mergers and acquisitions.
Now seems to be kind of all the rage. But I think teams will probably
build to be bought
or built to sell.
I think
we're just in this perpetual infracycle
that's continually just ongoing
that's going to get swallowed up by the bigger players.
And I just think teams will
definitely think twice about launching tokens
going forward. I just don't see...
It's hard, dude. it's hard launching a token yeah it's just feels like a fucking headache to be honest i think i think yeah i think we'll continue to see value consolidation across the industry i
think excellent teams will always stand out with novel ideas um i think one thing that's
been commented on by a number of articles is like crypto is in this stage where
we're seeing adoption some might say like uh sort of you know co-option rather um by
a number of crowdfi entities right so like let's let's look at what's like empirically worked in
crypto and what's like growing empirically right it's credit i think crypto is infinitely better for credit rails
it's trading in the casino right like whatever um it's rwas and it's payments stable coins there
may be some like overlap you know and cross integrations across those right like there are
some maybe some other categories but like these are the the categories that are working growing
the unified theme around all of them is that they hinge on,
and their growth is largely attributable to people being really interested in...
Sorry, give me one sec.
I'm getting fucking pinged.
Hold on.
Let me mute this.
Oh my God.
Who do you owe some money to?
I know, right um hold on uh how do i mute this okay there we go
um uh sorry um but uh as i was saying like i think all of these categories like rwa credit
payments typical insincense you know like really owe a lot of the growth or like the narrative on
the growth stories to expansion outside the space, right?
There means new users, new deposits of capital, you know, unit with HIP3 and equity purpose
is like a great, great example of this.
Right.
And, you know, there's an argument that basically like, OK, you know, we spent all this time
building crypto.
We should not let Wall Street come and co-opt this right now.
Right.
And like certainly like i think
there's like some you know there's merit to that right um the reality though is also to just bring
new swaths of capital and sort of like progress beyond like it's very clear that we have now hit
the burning point for like meme coin ico defy summer stuff right like i think every time that
happens people make money and there's probably will always be some sort of game, but people's propensity to tolerate that becomes less and less.
And then you go look at like something that's like not that game, but people are still making money and like want like, you know, equity purpose.
And you're like, oh, fuck, you know, there's like real things to build.
You know, there's probably, you know, obviously.
I'm sure people have a lot of opinions, but like looking at something like Tempo, doing the very deliberate partnerships with a lot of Web2 firms and whatnot to get payment flow.
It's very clear that the like now people are taking the few, you know, we've always talked about like what does it take to scale crypto to like a million people?
And now, you know, we can be there. And now like the actual go to market motions or like maybe non-technical motions of what it takes to get there are sort of coming alight, right?
And you kind of have like these two bifurcations where it's like protocols either compete
natively with these big platforms.
And like we see this with Coinbase offering equity trading and like Binance wanting to
offer equity and like basically now they're going to go compete with like Nasdaq and ICE.
And then or you kind of like, you know, work hand in hand with like these distributors,
right?
I don't know which approach is right.
I do know that it's happening and value compression is going to happen across the board.
It's going to be harder to justify, even though I think there should continue to be,
it's going to be harder to justify random experiments,
like all the DAO startups when DAOs were barely as sexy as a thing in 2021.
It's going to be harder to justify that.
Also, I think it would be immensely harder to justify competing in a crowded area,
like being a new PerpDex or a new trading terminal, unless you really have something new.
So I think this is just where we're at now.
I think people are having cognitive dissonance because the broad scale adoption of crypto and increasing flows is not correlating with asset prices because largely the people that are trying to pump this like want to do it for their
own personal reasons or co-op the infrastructure and not they don't really care about asset prices
and i think obviously like you know that's that's a thing right um so i don't know i don't know it's
uh it's very interesting time in crypto. I think now I can firmly say that crypto is part of broader
fintech. I think that's a fair assumption. I don't think we could have said that until
probably these past few months. Yeah, I totally agree. I think you're
probably going to start seeing an Anatoly tweet a few weeks back and it was like,
2024, all your chain is just full of bots. And it's like 2026 like 2024 all your chain is just full of bots and it's like 2026 oh your chain is actually full of full of bots so it's like maybe chains are going to be
built to scale with regards to agent economies in mind i know stripe keep touting that um x402
payments is really really interesting we covered in the 26th thesis um i also really like the look
of the architecture of what les zero just pulled out with. We had Brian and Ryan on when that came to launch.
I thought that was really, really interesting.
But I feel like you need to be in the middle of that Venn diagram
where you're straddling traditional markets, retail, being built to scale.
I think GTE launching on Lay0 is going to be really interesting.
So yeah, I think we're in a good place like fundamentals wise i just feel like as you say we need like a new vintage of tokens that are going to be actually investable
with all of this prior context in mind as well but honestly given the way that everything's
played out there's probably going to be a lot of founders that are just thinking they just get acquired yeah and like there's certain like like entities like the monad
foundation is like somewhat aggressive about acquisitions and like they've acquired a lot
of talent via acquisitions you know coinbase i'm sure even some of these prediction markets
you know we'll be thinking a lot about this so you know it's not like there's there's an exist
entities that have the capital to make these things happen um but you know do it's not like there's an existentities that have the capital to make these things happen.
But, you know, do I think less tokens will be launched?
Dude, I have no idea, right?
I think like these things are really cyclical.
We could be standing here in like a year and like look back and be like,
oh yeah, like we're too bare-pilled, right?
I think exchanges would love for new tokens to continue to be launched, right?
You know, it's good business for them,
especially if the token does well,
but even, you know, on launch day,
like it's just good business for them
from like a volume perspective
and all the other mechanics they have going on.
So it really just ends up being like,
you know, do people want to launch a token
if they think there is going to be
sort of like a bid for them, right?
Like you don't want to launch a token to do bad.
So unless, you know, you're climbing,
which might also just become more common.
Yeah, there are so many good teams
that have just happened to choose
the wrong chain to deploy on
that are just sat like
sub 10 mil market cap even with it like token out there
in the market which are probably ripe for just like acquiring and bundling up and shoving on
somewhere where they're gonna have like nice native distribution you know so they're kind of
bad for like those people where it's just like no fault of their own they just pick the wrong place
to deploy you get kind of like tarnished with the same brush and
that's that's just the situation that you're in but um i feel like if you are like a layer zero
with zero actually launching as you say with tempo like aggressively acquiring coinbase it
seems to be acquiring someone every couple of weeks like there's there's so many good teams
and products that are just like on their ass at the minute.
The chains that they're deployed on are probably never going to come back to life.
So Monad could probably go and sweep
a lot of those like top talented teams up off the ground
and then like away you go.
But again, I feel like you get one chance
at launching in this space as well.
It's very, very hard to come back from the dead.
I know Solana have managed to do it,
but the first impressions seem to just like
even make or break you in this industry as well where i feel like a lot of teams like monads
came out the gates hasn't really been hasn't blown anyone away mega reefs live now i like their kpi
style a vest thing what they've what they've kind of like i suppose pioneered we're not getting paid
unless the chain's actually doing well i think that's ballsy moving backing yourself is like
really really good in this space, I think.
But yeah, we're just in a weird spot.
But at the same time, I can't help but feel just bullish
on a fundamental level with the way everything's moving, really.
Yeah, I agree.
I don't know. Let's see.
I think crypto is no longer the current exciting thing.
It's still exciting i'm like very bullish
on crypto and i think like you're just seeing the reaction to that um but it'll continue to grow and
i think it's just like it's probably a really good time to figure out where that growth will
continue and like what assets are investable right like maybe it's like harder to find like
good proxies for like stable coin growth right um but like if you believe
perp decks are going to grow in hp3 like hype's right there let's right there you know like
there's definitely going to be good assets right and and also like asymmetric opportunities right
like if you think that layer zero will cook right after it's kind of like retraced the announcement
pump like you can build a long-term position here, right? And coins that kind of like move all the time, right?
Like, you know, Venice being a good example where it like pumped
because like a lot of open top people were using it after like cloud code.
So it's like, you know, like these things always happen
and like there are good decent products and like strong teams there.
It's just going to require, I think, like a lot of better selection.
I mean, like to this point, I have not been trading like much. I mean, selection i mean like to this point i have not been trading like much i mean also for personal stuff but like i have not
been trading much at all just you know there's no clear market trend so i think it requires like
way more effort per um uh um uh you know way more effort per um uh uh sort of like asset to actually
understand if you want to hold it for the long run. Yeah, yeah, totally agree.
One final point is
Anathropa and Claude going to get wiped out
by the US government this week and EXF
if they don't bend the knee.
You kind of give them the ultimatum for Friday.
If you don't kind of allow for unfettered access
to the model for the US government
and security services
to use, then it looks like it's going to be held to bear.
Yeah, yeah, it's true.
Let's see.
Yeah.
Also, it does seem that a lot of funds are facing the pressure of like raising LPs.
I feel like in the last five minutes, this was like a very funny argument today.
Oh, right.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Should we touch on that?
You go for it first,
because I fear that I'm quite close,
like in my past professional life
to some of the people mentioned.
So I'm going to let you handle this, Grant.
So Dragonfly and SE,
I came up with a 650 million latest fund.
I think it was fund four.
Fund four?
Yeah, we'll go with that.
650 million.
To be honest, like raising that much at this point in the market,
I think is fucking brilliant.
Kudos for getting that capital over the line.
And if there's going to be any time to deploy,
I think that's the right time to do it.
Then Hasib brought an article basically saying how to start a VC.
And then one of the early founders,
like one of the early original founders of Dragonfly
basically came out and said,
you didn't start shit.
You joined us when we'd already been set up.
And Hasib's pushback was,
yeah, but you guys had basically,
we're a fund of funds at the time.
And now we're at like,
what was like 4 billion AUM or some shit like that. So there's a bit of funds at the time uh and now we're at like it was like four
billion AUM or some shit like that um so there's a bit of fallout on timeline there's three things
happen in situations like this there's the opinion of like the accused of these the opinion of the
defendee and there's like what actually happened right so um yeah i think i feel like it was a
point in time where the timeline was particularly getting
quite frothy in a bit everyone was throwing their toys out of the pram but yeah that was like a lot
of the uh all the drama on the timeline this morning I don't really know what to make of it
to be honest that Dragonfly are super successful they've raised a load of money they've got to
deploy into crypto companies so like yeah kudos to them, really. Yeah, yeah.
I mean, I think, you know,
obviously bear markets just bring out a lot of stress in people.
I'm trying to think if there's...
I feel like there were a lot of arguments, like, after FTX last cycle.
I can't fucking remember, though.
Oh, God.
We had FTX and then, like, Luna fucking collapsed.
Yeah.
Oh, they changed everything, dude.
We didn't even tell them.
Ah, yeah, yeah. I knew we were forgetting something you I actually haven't like read the the like
like the um the legal documents uh from the from the case but have you yeah so like TLDR is the um
the guy who's fighting the corner from the Terra luna foundation or whatever the fuck it's called
is basically accusing jane street of having someone who previously used to work at lfg
on the inside and basically like one of the most immediate transactions after lfg pulled
some of the u.s i think it was called a fort was it called four pool at the time the curve lp with
ust in the immediate transaction after that was $85 million
withdrawn from a Jane Street-labelled wallet.
So they're basically saying that they caused
like the initial rush for the exit
because of that immediate transaction,
which they wouldn't have known that that was that wallet
to immediately then trigger the wallet
from Jane Street withdrawing the LP.
So they're basically saying they were colluding with someone who they basically employ that used to work at
the lunar foundation guard and they contributed to the demise and the de-pegging of ust they were
also in the war room when they were trying to re-peg it um and feel like they had insider
information where they were trading actively against the like collective plan to try and
re-peg ust so that's what's getting
thrown out there you've kind of got to think like the the guy's got a heavy incentive to
to try and claim as much back from that case as physically possible i don't really know what to
believe i think both sides are dodgy as fuck in my opinion so um that's kind of like tldr of what
the situation is yeah, that makes sense.
I mean, I think for a long time we've all,
like as an industry also just underestimated
the extent to which these traditional huge trading firms
and players, like they're not loud.
They'll never be loud, right?
Like obviously they're the firms that we are familiar with
as crypto natives, right?
That, you know, engage with CTs,
like, you know, the Winter Mutes and GSRs
and stuff like
up the world.
These traditional firms have been sort of quite active for a while too, and that's becoming
increasingly clear.
And I think that the extent to which they are involved often gets underestimated.
And I think this and maybe some of the stuff around Citadel that's come out around, they're
involved in a few things, is really bringing that to light because these know these firms thrive off secrecy so at the very least i think
it's good to bring bring awareness to that but man it's uh uh it's very caught ct off left field
never a dull dare so um yeah anything else before we wrap up no not from my side i think it's been
like more of a funny week than anything like event phone markets yeah it's like this is why bear markets are fucking the best i think yeah you just talk
shit no one's making any money talk shit yeah timelines much higher signals like i don't know
what we're talking oh shit there's like a fucking fourth cloud bot club it's like four million
it writes itself like um so if you got something personally coming out next week
like why should people be looking if they're twitter twitter yeah okay i've had a lot of time
recently so i was like quantum rabbit hole let's go so hopefully this will be helpful to people as
it was to me sick all right see you all next week. Josh, Henry, take it away.
Peace.
