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BALANCING INCOME AND GROWTH IN ETFS
Recorded: Aug. 6, 2025 Duration: 2:41:03Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic discussion, key players in the crypto and tech sectors highlighted significant partnerships, growth trends, and upcoming earnings reports, emphasizing the evolving landscape of investment opportunities and the importance of accurate information in navigating the market.
Full Transcription
Thank you. What a wonderful day you know i feel like we knew every a couple people on this one knew how
uh i was going to try and come in and start this space i wanted to be here instantly
should i just leave now 3 p.m eastern and should i just should i just log off now evan should i
just get off now suck it all right but here's the thing though though. So the calls I bought live on this on this stream are on the spaces the other day.
Or when did I buy these? So this was when we were having that whole conversation.
The point of this is I'm only up 14 percent on them at this point in time.
Now, they're up 230 percent today. So you kind of go some stuff.
This this past move hurt a lot in these calls.
So the kind of bet that you didn't necessarily know you were
taking at the time, but has kind of been made
for you, and you don't
really have a stake in it besides me talking shit to you.
So I guess maybe that is a stake.
I'm currently only winning by 15%.
We'll say.
I do wish you congratulations. You caught
some great news, and
Apple was a great trade today.
We'll talk more about it, I'm sure sure apple getting out of the presidential doghouse well you know we'll see
if it stays here they haven't made the announcement yet you know i mean let's see what it is and see
what they say i'm not trying to poo poo we don't really know exactly what's going to be done or not
and you know what i mean i wonder i want to don't go too far because I want to make sure Stock talk and hear as much of this conversation as well and some other people.
But Apple, this 214, 215 level look left is quite a big one.
I'm not surprised that we moved like once we've had this aggressive day that this is where we kind of stagnate at.
Tomorrow, next couple of days, if you break through that level on a nice, serious day, I mean, maybe that turns into a bull trap and whatever.
But that could be the start of a move up to up to 250.
I didn't say it.
Someone else said it.
I did just say it.
But this is quite the level.
This is quite the level.
But there's a lot of other things besides Apple today to talk about.
Oh, yeah.
A lot of good things.
But I'm going to start with Apple, though.
Great day.
We have some interesting earnings coming up after the close,
going to happen live on these spaces.
Airbnb, DraftKings, IonQ.
I need to correct a story from yesterday.
I need to correct a story from yesterday.
I said that Amazon had bought IonQ during the previous quarter.
Now, what had actually happened was there's some stuff with warrants
that they had gotten back of the day. Now, in the last 13F, there was no IonQ. This 13F, there was
IonQ in it, but it was a little bit more, there was more behind the scenes than, than just saying
Amazon had purchased IonQ. And my guess is the stock pulled back a little throughout the day.
Yeah, but not until the open. I don't know, but i definitely want to make sure i got that correction
out that stock reports earnings after the close duolingo you guys don't know wolf gov he actually
uses it every day or did for a while and a couple other names so a lot a lot of names a lot of names
also some parrots going around uh options mike what are you uh watching in this market though
what's catching your eye?
A lot of names.
Which ones?
Give me the top two or three which were standing out the most for you.
The Amazon turnaround.
That's really intriguing.
Well, Apple was the – I made my big money on Apple today.
I jumped heavy on calls on and out of the gate because of the news
and also because the chart.
It just had that look and feel and the volume was there.
But what's really standing out to me today is the spy is broken above uh right here above
yesterday's high he's taking up that little downturn and this market just seems to be shrugging off everything india to be at 50 i apologize in this heaven is half a minute or
too old but trump will meet intends to meet with putin in person yeah that came out about seven minutes ago yeah they'll see that i wonder is oil and gas they move off
of that headline yeah they dropped gas dropped yeah oil's been dropping hard all day it dropped
like a whole nother percent when that came out yeah we had the wickoff was there sorry mike
though continue no mike i was gonna ask you though we're right at a golden retrace a normal retrace for from Thursday side of Friday's low yeah I
mean but you know you look at what's going on here and you know the one thing
that stands out is market breadth is either slightly right or neutral across
the board today was about the big names doing the lifting you know as we talked
about Apple up to a big spot it's got a gap up here that starts at 216 and change. Amazon with a big reversal back into its earnings gap here had a
nice movement in that today. I still own the stock, but I've been options still singing a
couple of the September 230s. Palantir put in a new all-time high above 180, $180, $180.58.
Google reversed and had a big day. Meta reversed and had a big day.
You know, the semi is kind of quiet. I think AMD's earnings report last night, I thought it was a
fine report. I expect that'll come back. All the analysts were out there bullish on it. It's just
for how much it had run. We talked about this yesterday. They need to do better guidance than
they did. It wasn't bad guidance. It just wasn't that, oh my guidance that the market was looking for. But you look around today and this big move, the one that
shocked me was shop this morning. I still don't know why shop went up so much this morning on
that report. It was a good report, but I mean, that thing took off like a bat out of hell.
So I think this market here is a summer market. We're still in the summer quite soon.
And if we close above here, we could run back to the highs.
I mean, this is the kind of market we're in right now.
It doesn't want to give it up easily.
Like I said, Trump puts a 50% tariff on India, and the market just yawns.
It doesn't care.
The market just doesn't seem to care about anything right now.
So the trend's your friend.
It's the same names that are pretty much moving us and stick with them
i want to look more into these shopify numbers actually well let's take a look a little bit
because this is quite the move now i'm looking at this you could see this as hey this is a stock that
maybe when you look at the one year the five year maybe it's the type of
name that just has been building the base for years and you get some reflection but
I want to see what the numbers actually look like they were good I mean the guidance was
good I mean but they didn't see you know to me it didn't seem like that good you know
what I mean there is a purse out there that once you become the largest Canadian company in the world,
it's the largest Canadian company.
Not going well after that.
There is a thing there.
So revenue of $2.66 billion.
Same quarter last year was $2 billion.
What's that growth?
31% growth?
Yeah.
And what are their margins?
Margins were good.
Again, it was a good report i'm not i'm not anyway i just you know to move that much off of it i was shocked
stock sniper what was the implied move for uh shopify earnings i know i'm catching a little
bit off guard here i wonder though i thought it I thought it was like $7 or $8, but I could be wrong.
I had it, but I deleted it.
Give me a second.
That was this morning, right?
There was, yeah, there was this morning.
I got it.
I got it.
The shop move was $12.55 late yesterday afternoon.
I have $11.63.
It moves around.
Maybe I took it at a different time than you.
Guys, I bought Alab at around $90.
Oh, wait, Stock Talk joined the spaces.
Apple, great job today. Good job, Apple.
All right.
Also, beautiful Amazon turnaround.
We'll talk about it, though, at some point.
Your favorite big tech in general.
Yeah.
Alab, I bought at $90.
I sold at $124 once we got a little bit of pullback
you know this was a trade i didn't know the name as well up 29 today i bet you that's more than
that implied move a net up 18 some of these names are the options traders the degenerates actually
having an earning season where you can take some trades now we also talked about this yesterday a couple people on the panel unnamed people are in a lift gamble right now
we'll see i didn't work out well today well i mean the earnings doesn't happen yet but yeah i
am we'll see what happens just small position three percent but yeah we'll see that's crazy
small position
mike i'm gonna cut you off there on some stuff too That's crazy, Mike. 3% small position.
Mike, I'm going to cut you off there on some stuff too.
All good.
By the way, Snap was a putrid report.
And SMCI, if you're looking for one thing, the same problem,
they guided down revenue for the next quarter 10% from $33 to $30 billion.
That is a little bit of a worry for the AI trade of why they're slowing down so much.
You know,
Sniper,
could you actually do me a favor?
Could you look at the implied moves for the earnings that happened yesterday
after the close and this morning and just a couple of them and see how they
compare to what actually happened on the moves?
That's a great thing to do.
Yeah,
I got you.
Yeah.
I think a lot of them went more. I mean, not all of them i i have them right here because i post them from my room
every day what do you want to know amd implied move was 13 smci was seven snap was about 15.
i want to compare it to what they actually ended up doing you know so we'll take a look maybe even
that's just the post and then then you can get out but But yeah, because like AMD was 11 or you're saying 13, it moved 11.
So that's a little bit under.
Yeah, but it did recover a lot.
Lots to talk about, lots to talk about.
Urkel, you've been up here for a while.
You haven't said anything.
We appreciate you coming in and hanging out on the spaces.
Got any, that's what were you
what were you trading today yeah thanks for having me on been a while um just a wild market you know
after the gap downs on friday and losing the five nine emas on spy and the queues bitcoin and
ethereum looking a little iffy we had a decent relief bounce on Monday, some rejections
on Tuesday, and we're kind of running it back up today. And, you know, a lot of investors were
expecting some weakness and seasonality in August and September. But if these if this market reclaims
trend here, and it certainly appears to be on that on that journey, then we could certainly
continue to push higher.
So, you know, one thing we know under Trump and this administration is this isn't your typical stock market.
Things can certainly, you know, not move as expected, if you will, you know,
just given how many people were anticipating bigger drops in the summer.
So if this holds up, I mean, there's some certainly after some decent pullback some really nice opportunities
I've been looking at
Pan W which I posted earlier as a reversal idea just based on the technicals
Palo Alto or yeah off the 169 fib area and a key trend support
That's something I took a
position in this week near 170 172 is just just on the technicals more than
anything else certainly a popular stock a Nancy name and you know a pretty
significant drop from 210 down to this 169 demand level after the acquisition
announced earlier so i i like that
there and i also like some of the crypto names again if bitcoin and ethereum can reclaim trend
here too we took the iron trade off 16 earlier this week and the tom lee stock bm and r that one
is up about 13 today we were looking at that off the 30, 32 supports, but
for that to reestablish strength to the upside, it does have to claim about 37.50 to 38 or so.
And you can see it's kind of dancing in that area right now. So if that establishes trend and
Ethereum... I'm sorry. I was going to try and wait, but I couldn't help myself. Are you Canadian?
I am Canadian. I'm hearing it a little bit. All right, continue. I appreciate sorry. I was going to try and wait, but I couldn't help myself. Are you Canadian? I am Canadian.
I'm hearing it a little bit. All right, continue. I appreciate it.
I thought the Calgary talks with Stock Talk the other week might have given it away and
can more and stuff.
That's fair. Sometimes there's so much going on, but there's this meme that's been hitting
me. It's like, what if this person was talking like a Toronto accent or whatever it is?
Okay.
And I hear it a little.
I don't use the typical A's
and stuff like that, but you can definitely hear the, you know, data versus data and stuff like
that. So, uh, yeah, there, I am Canadian. So yeah. Um, 51st state, great place. Yeah. I love it up
here. The frequent visitor to the United States too. I've got kids. So Disneyland is high on the
list and stuff like that. So, uh, question, I don't mean to put you on the spot in front of Americans.
If a vote happened, would you vote against or for joining?
Against, man.
Gotcha.
There's, you know, I get the economic reasons that have been put forth in the past,
but there's a certain level of pride one takes in their country too, you know,
and Canadians are very proud people as well. So, uh, yeah, I,
I'd vote against it personally. I just more of a, um, you know,
further away from stock talk to more lions. I like that.
For sure. Yeah. You know, a lot of it is kind of a pride decision, right?
You just kind of, you know, yeah. For me, it was good for sure.
I do apologize for knocking you off course.
Not at all.
Not at all.
So I covered BM&R.
I think 3750-38 is a really key area to reclaim.
I covered Palo Alto, Pan W.
That's reversing today off that 169 demand level.
That's a really interesting one
to keep in mind hood robin hood is set up to break out on the daily um it does have a little
work to do though to get up to that 106 108 area and rocket labs is one to watch um for earnings
this thing is coiled tight off the 20 ema and a downtrend line off the highs of 53. If you look
at my profile, I posted the chart on there. I don't have a position in Robinhood, but I could
see this making an explosive move just based on the technical setup. I'm just waiting for direction
on it. I'm not a gambler. But once I catch some
direction on it, if it looks like it's breaking to the upside, that would be a really interesting
name to jump in on as well. That chart is coiled tight. Outside of that, I mean, Palantir, I've
been a bull for a long time. The 162 target I shared back in April, May was something I was
looking at and we gapped over that. And as long as it holds 162s,
I think that chart has room to about 200 to 220. And I know it sounds insane to say, but 162
sounded crazy when we were in the nineties as well. And here we are. And lastly, another one
I'm watching is AMD on this pullback. The 161 level is a key major fib level we have pulled back into it today down to 157 or so
and we're dancing around it right now so if amd holds 161 it's another one i'm looking at as a
potential reversal play as well so a lot of it will have to do with the market trends but by all
you know by all accounts when i'm looking at SPY and the Qs, Bitcoin and Ethereum,
everything's fighting to claw back over the 5, 9 and 20 EMAs. And as long as we're above all three,
regardless of whether it's August or not, this market certainly has some room to run
further. So looking at upside here, unless the market gives me reason to go the other way.
So looking at upside here, unless the market gives me reason to go the other way.
Yeah, we've had these conversations, a lot of conversations over the last couple of weeks about where we're at in this market and the fears, exhaustion conversations.
And here we are on this type of day where we're definitely not talking about that right now.
Yeah, this is, again, I'm biased in Apple, so it's been a little more difficult than me for maybe some other people in here who are in those high flyers.
Maybe it's just my market perspective.
No, and I think, you know, this market, every time you have significant pullbacks in an uptrend market, That also provides the opportunity for new buyers to step in,
people who may have been waiting on the sidelines to step in,
and for people that have continued to hold.
You know, these pullbacks provide opportunities
not only to bounce back and retest recent highs,
but to also continue higher.
So it's been pretty healthy.
I was concerned on Friday on the gap downs
when we gave up the five, nine and
20 EMAs because we've rode those for support for three months and there was a risk of turning them
into resistance and they were on Monday and Tuesday. However, today it looks like we're
going to establish a close above all three of those short and medium term EMAs. So as long as
that holds, I mean, why fight price and trend, right? I sold a lot of swings
over the last couple of weeks and I've entered three new swings this week. As long as trend
holds, capitalize, don't fight it. I want to shift the conversation towards Sam. Sam,
I want to hear some of your thoughts on some of these earnings. I was talking earlier that I sold some of my A-Lab before these earnings.
Guys, it's up 30% today.
So I did make money on it.
Not as much as I would have.
I did calculate today how much I left on the table.
We don't need to talk about that.
But what are some of these earnings maybe from last night, this morning?
Maybe even some after the close that that you found
interesting or watching yeah i mean when it comes to estera labs and also rista network uh these
were really good buys last april rissa network pulled back all the way i think to like 60 bucks
uh a lab pulled all the way back to about 50 i think it went sub 50 for a minute and i was buying
this on the way down.
Timing wasn't the best.
When it broke 100, that's when I started to add a little bit more in size.
But as it kept going down, that's when I started getting more aggressive.
Because of this narrative that I have thought that we would have switched to by now is the
phase two of AI, where you have mostly software applications starting to the benefit of using
AI as far as efficiency goes and cutting costs. But it seems like the market is still about the data center.
And that's really what we saw.
But it's mostly focused less on the actual GPUs themselves, but more on the network throughput.
We actually talked about this at depth on the Investing with the Boys podcast in season one.
Guys, definitely check that podcast out.
We just came out with season two. We're going to be recording season two episode two today after hours and that's uh
brought to you by uh future equities as well as wolf thank you guys for the thank guys for the
backing that one but anyways um for a while we were talking about estera labs i mean i don't know
why the stock got sold down pretty
strongly. And everything got sold off around April as well. But when you know what you want
to buy as the market goes down, before it goes down, it provides you with a lot of opportunity
to buy in heavy when the market has mispriced an asset, especially when the narrative really
has not changed. I mean, AI has not changed in April, but the market was selling up based on macro conditions.
And those are very good times to buy the dip on certain assets.
And Estera lapsed up almost three times
than where it was back in April.
It's phenomenal.
Shai actually has a really good average on that.
He posted that one today, like $54.
And Future of Equities has been very long and bullish to stop for quite some time. And, you know,
I'm glad to have caught the wind with that one too. The narrative really is around network
throughput and we've seen it also with cooling as well. Rotor of holdings is almost double what
it was in the April lows. Uh, we see other companies as well, catching a tailwind off
this one that, uh, I I'm actually kind of surprised it hasn't caught the
tailwind was Marvell technologies they're mostly focused on designing ASIC chips which is the
application-specific integrated circuits it's basically GPUs that are catered towards specific
processes and specific applications and usage so they help design the Amazon Terranium Inferanium
chips which are doing well they They helped design Meta chips.
They helped design Microsoft chips.
But I think the news that we received a couple weeks back that Microsoft was not happy with the delays that it was getting for their ASIC chips,
so they decided to just buy more GPUs from NVIDIA.
I think that that is what Cavs can tailwind.
And I think the ASIC sector is more leading into the big dog in that entire sector. And that will be Broadcom with AVGO.
We did receive news that Broadcom is going to be assisting
with designing ASIC chips for other companies as well recently.
And that stock is just on fire.
That actually bothered around 140 bucks.
And now it's sitting here near, I think it's almost at 300.
Haven't actually checked.
It's sitting here.
Yeah, it's actually over 300 bucks today.
So I think that would be a new all-time high
for Broadcom as well if it closes here.
But the narrative is still mostly around data center.
That's just what it is today.
You see NVIDIA continuing to push a 180 stay.
Tesla was talking about designing their AI6 chips as early as 2026 and already designing their AI5 chips with TSM, hopefully releasing that one this year.
and already designing their AI5 chips with TSM,
hopefully releasing that one this year.
And they're going to be on-shoring a lot of this technology
for manufacturing or fabricating a lot of these chips to US.
And I think that's really important
because that narrative continues to be pushed.
But not only that,
we also got the chip export restrictions lifted
a few weeks ago,
which opened the door for China
to start buying the H20
as well as the MI308 series from AMD
hand over fist. And they're going to be buying these hard. And what is a particular component
inside these chips that a lot of these designers and manufacturers use? It's a Sterilabs component.
And that's why it is catching a huge tailwind. It was up as much as 35% today after their blowout
of the water earnings. I think they grew their revenue. I believe it was 150%. The market was looking for about 120% on that one. And just the company is
really on fire. It IPO back around $70 a share, and it hasn't seen that price until last April.
And that was really the opportunity to buy. Where do I see the market today? Well, I mean,
there's some opportunity out there. Actually, Urkel was talking about Palo Alto being a good buy here from a technical perspective. And one thing that
I like about investing as well as putting on size of certain positions is seeing that
convexity when it comes to a chart on a technical basis. I'm no technical analysis expert. Whenever
I hear companies that a lot of technical traders are very bullish on for a turnaround in.
And then when I know the background and the fundamentals of Palo Alto, and again,
this is something that Future of Equity is also bullish on as well. Thank you, Shai.
Whenever I think about that, this is actually a pretty good opportunity. The stock got sold
off from above 200s near its all-time high based on the announcement that they're going to be buying
a cybersecurity firm specifically in
Privileged Access Management of CyberArk. And that actually is not going to be a cheap deal.
And the deal is supposed to be mostly focused on, or the deal is going to be an exchange of shares,
as well as cash position, which might put Palo Alto in a precarious state in terms of how much
money is on the balance sheet and how much leverage they use. But I have every bit of confidence that Nikesh Arora, who's the CEO of Palo Alto, not the
founder, but the CEO since 2018, that he's going to be able to make it work.
Palo Alto is not new to the acquisition game.
They've done it for a long time.
And all they're doing, all they are literally doing is building an entire cybersecurity
platform where everyone consolidates all their products into one company.
Certainly, I don't expect to take all market share from CrowdStrike.
I do expect them to take market share from bigger conglomerates like Microsoft,
but mostly smaller conglomerates as they're trying to get everyone to merge onto a single platform.
I'm bullish Palo Alto, and I don't think that it trades super expensive comparative to its peers,
but it's trading at about 14 times enterprise sales to value, I'm sorry, enterprise value to
sales, forward sales. And it actually pulled back to like 13, 12 times, which actually made it a
pretty good entry. But consider where the market's at today, where you see very high valuations and
the market just continues to rally higher. It's less about chasing valuations and more of just positioning yourself in companies
that you know are a good deal right now
that probably have lower risks to the downside.
When I think of Palo Alto,
I think this is a company
that's obviously going to be around for a long time.
They're one of the most profitable
cybersecurity companies out there.
They're not a legacy player.
They are building a platform that is cloud native
and they're just executing on all fronts. And also,
they have Nikesh Arora, who's been the CEO there for about eight years, doing really well.
And I mean, you really hear nothing but bad news about them. A lot of analysts on Watcher
are very bullish on them too. I think this might be a good opportunity for Palo Alto to get in and
nest in a position there. I have myself. And yeah, just waiting to see what Fortinet's going to
report today as they're reporting after hours. They're in the same sector as Palo Alto,
but more focused on the hardware cybersecurity front.
But they do also have virtual firewalls like Palo Alto.
So this will have a sympathy play in Palo Alto.
Shai, it sounds like he teed you up a little there.
You got any thoughts on any of these earnings we got coming up?
Maybe even some of the ones we're watching after the close.
I know in IRQ, a few others.
I don't know if there's any names that are interesting for you in your radar.
Yeah, I'm going to talk a couple additional color on what Sam was referencing.
Like Astaire Labs, for example.
What a move. I think it hit
all-time highs, up 30%. This is a name that was priced not for dead, but forgotten just a couple
months ago. I think it's tripled in just a matter of three months. We at Futurum interview a ton of
CEOs in the S&P 500, especially in the the tech space and the common theme is networking is going
to be on fire this earning cycle it's going to be a huge hot pocket you're going to see nvidia's
numbers most likely on the networking revenue exceed expectations back-to-back orders that
was like the hidden gem last cycle it's going to be the same thing this cycle you're going to see
broadcom exceed expectations marvell is very specific to an aws problem so jury's still out on that but we we viewed as their labs as like a
leverage play on networking almost like a two acts of what brockham is going to be doing because
the next bottleneck right now as inference starts scaling up is going to be data movement and i think you just saw in
a stair labs fundamentals like i think top line is 150 with net income margins above 40 it's
becoming a vital part of what the next physical layer of inference is going to have to try to
tackle the ref the phrase that we use all the time is AI is intelligence, then inference is attacks on intelligence.
So we call Broadcom Uncle Sam all the time because they're just collecting all attacks on all these AI workloads.
So you can even use the reference to Stair Labs as the toll booth between all the memory storage and accelerators.
So the way to view Stair Labs and Broadcom differently is it's such a pure AI bet.
Versus Broadcom, there's definitely other parts in their umbrella that they get exposed to that's not just purely AI,
or especially this next hot pocket of AI, where Sarah Labs, it's literally this next and latest and greatest thing.
Issue though, which I have, which I'm, by the way, I'm a shareholder of a stair labs exam mentioned since the 50s. My average cost basis is.
It's also a similar issue for a lot of SMBs. It's hard. Also, they're 30 billion dollar company. I don't know if they're SMB anymore, but smaller players in the space where.
As soon as NVIDIA decides to create a replicated product,
it might experience a Confluent-like drop.
We saw OpenAI decided to,
we don't need your main services anymore on
your open source streaming data.
We're going to leverage that,
create our own and make it in-house and save the cost.
That's why Confluent just went down 35-40 percent.
I don't even know what the price is.
There is a risk associated with the same thing happening to Stair Labs.
We're not seeing it right now.
We're seeing MVLink Fusion partner up with their latest and greatest.
And it's something that Scorpio P, which is supposed to outgrow Scorpio X,
Scorpio X is going to be hitting next year, and that's a major tail end for them.
is going to be hitting next year.
And that's a major tail-in for them.
Either way, the Stair Labs is going to be like the AI play for inference if you want.
It's also high risk, though.
And right now it might be priced fairly.
So that's that.
AMD, we spoke to Lisa before their earnings report yesterday, an hour before.
And we came away from that thinking that the
market wouldn't like what they saw, not based on the fundamentals, but based on the lack of clarity
on their AI data center space. I think the valuation was running up into that print where
it was kind of screaming, beneficiary of AI GPU super cycle. But really, it was just the CPUs and
gaming GPUs were carrying the story and you saw
that proof in the pudding in the earnings report uh yesterday and i think that that mismatch
isn't fatal but i think it causes a reason for why it should pull back a bit and you heard on
the earnings call constantly talk about client ramp uh but i think now the burden of proof shifts to Q3 on if we see the MI350 units shipping
in volume, if you see Rock M traction actually build among the real customers and any kind
of signal that AMD is closing the Delta with NVIDIA, although they're not trying to become
the next NVIDIA. And we're not trying to say that either. I think Nvidia is going to probably own at least 70% of the AI accelerator market for years and years and years. Our thesis
on AMD is that sub 10% share will do enough for AMD to justify being much higher from here on out.
However, execution is a risk. And I think they just kicked the can down the road due to some
China digestion issues and I think that nothing about this earnings report screamed AMD is
the second best inference platform in the world.
Although we do believe that they will be.
That's a $50 billion TAM in the next five years.
It's up for grabs.
That second fiddle is AMD's to lose.
We just don't think they deserve a premium to Nvidia after that report. And I think,
I don't know if it's going to go back much lower. Who knows what the price action will be. But
we did think that it should have pulled back and it is. Regarding today, what's even reporting
today? IonQ, we,
that's not an earnings story,
so I'm not going to get into that too much.
Let's see what else. Sorry,
I should probably,
is there anything else that comes to mind,
Evan,
that's reporting today?
IonQ is the one,
Airbnb,
DraftKings,
maybe you're a big DKNG,
DGEN guy on the side,
that could always be a thing.
Duolingo,
AppLovin,
there's those conversations around the S&P 500.
Paramount getting acquired by Skydance opens up a spot.
AppLovin, Robinhood are the ones that get a lot of conversation around that.
Fortinet, FTNT, I'm sure is one.
HubSpot maybe is one that falls into your arena as well.
Yeah, so I think Fortinet has a similar Okta issue, in my opinion,
where I don't think you can be really a standalone cybersecurity hardware company anymore.
I think you're going to see the platformization from the bigger players accelerate.
What Sam was referencing Palo Alto, I mean, Palo Alto is a tier one cybersecurity player.
I'm not arguing against that.
But there's a reason why I favor CrowdStrike over Palo Alto is because the inquisitive nature of Palo Alto's ways,
where they are slowly and not hiding away from the fact,
but they're turning into a Salesforce 2.0,
where they're just going to acquire the latest and greatest
and to accelerate that platformization narrative.
Like Salesforce is the same exact thing during the cloud era,
where it is to acquire the BI tools necessary to sell that platformization.
Angle, it worked, but you just saw the last five years or so.
It's a tough model to continue doing that because there's synergy risk,
there's dilution risk,
there's a ton of risk associated with acquiring your way to growth.
Cybersecurity might be really different than CRM space,
so I'm not
foreseeing that palato have experienced the same headwinds as uh salesforce but i do think that
i like the palo alto acquisition of cyborg i think it's the kind of exactly kind of swing that
they need to make a new digital economy where their bet is essentially where enterprises are heading
the future of identity isn't going to be me logging in with password,
Evan logging in the password.
It's going to be a fleet of AI agents and all these autonomous systems making decisions
and executing real tasks on behalf of these billion-dollar businesses.
And if that's where the enterprises are going and we believe that it's inevitable,
it's heading there.
Then the question becomes who controls that control plane and who governs that privilege of all these AI agents and verifies all these LLM outputs before they trigger who knows what transactions on really sensitive systems.
That's what CyberArk does.
And that's the value that Palo Alto bought it for.
The reason the market doesn't like it is the previous record acquisition
for Palo Alto was, I think, $3 billion. This is $25 billion. This is 10x. This might be symbolizing
to the market that they are a bit weaker than expected on organic growth on the rest of their
business, or that they just have to pay up right now in order to accelerate momentum in their stock.
Who knows why that's the case is, but short-term thinking, I do think this is a long-term fit on where enterprises are going.
And it's not the cheapest stock, but it's also not the most expensive.
It's like, I think, 35 times EBITDA multiple.
EBITDA multiple doesn't scream undervalued, but it's definitely in cybersecurity.
It doesn't scream undervalued, but it's definitely in cybersecurity.
It's one of those thematics where it's defensive and offensive, where it participates in the
risk on environments.
It participates in AI where as data explodes due to AI productivity boom, what do you have
to do with it?
You have to protect it, and that's cybersecurity.
And there's also the drone angle the robotic angle like as these two themes gain momentum and scale up you're
gonna have to even have more security uh for those kind of hardware so like cyber security is a very
attractive long-term theme with plenty of runway and it's got kind of a high floor because if there
is a business recession if there's any kind of a high floor because if there is a business recession,
if there's any kind of massive black swan on a recession for consumers or enterprises,
cybersecurity is the last lever that's pulled by any CTO.
They can't afford to cut costs or go for a second fiddle or third fiddle to save money.
You pay up for the top quality.
And that's why if you have cybersecurity exposure,
CrowdStrike is ridiculously expensive.
It's coming from a shareholder
and they are experiencing the hangover from the outage still
probably will for another year or so.
I don't know, 35 times EBITDA for a tier one cybersecurity name
isn't hard to swallow.
And I think that pulling back 20% off this headline does set themselves up for outperformance
and this upcoming earnings cycle.
So that might be an interesting setup.
But other than that, I mean, it's a highly fragmented sector.
It's Microsoft is the clear king.
There's some great peer play plays like CrowdStrike and Palo Alto. And I think the rest are either too niche hardware that they won't ever be a platform
or they're going to be second fiddle that will never take down the king of that space,
a.k.a. Central One CrowdStrike, and they're going to go via acquisition.
I still think Palo Alto should acquire Central One over Cyborg, to be honest, on the price tag.
But either way, tomorrow's a bigger earnings event. I'll pass it back to you Evan do we have a whole Morris block up here do we
have an Omar I didn't think so but it shows on the the uh speakers list he's up here no
worries if not were you asking for me? I just came here.
Montev, I'm always asking for you.
How are you doing?
Doing all right.
You watching any of these earnings or anything coming up?
I actually have to catch up on what's coming up today.
What about what was coming up after these last couple of days?
Any of these names?
We were talking about some.
Shai had a lot of names to talk about there.
I'm sure there's some interest there.
The A-Labs, the A-Nets are looking really strong.
The Shopify's of the world are doing well.
Some names that aren't.
So, I mean, look.
Arista was solid.
You know, I got out.
I'm done with that.
You know, I ran that up from, you know, low 90s when it sold off.
Last quarter, they had some question mark over whether their network edge market was being upended by others.
But I was confident enough to buy in.
A-Lab, Asterra, you know, retimers for the AI GPU market.
That's another solid result.
Out of that, I still think Credo probably has some place to run,
and that's two weeks out or a week, week and a half out, something like that.
So CRDO, I like it still.
It's a little bit different, but they do overlap in their markets.
AMD is a very interesting story.
Some progress, you know, can't deny that.
They've made some progress in, you know,
they certainly have at least three announced hyperscalers in their stable now.
So they announced a large Oracle cluster that's coming up with MI355s.
So they previously announced both Microsoft and Meta. So that makes it three hyperscalers that have to some extent invested in AMD GPU-based clusters.
So AMD-based GPU clusters, sorry.
So that's a positive.
On the flip side, I didn't see anything
that suggested they are gaining significant market share from Nvidia.
And from the numbers, I certainly didn't see anything that suggests that they have great pricing power.
There were rumors that they were increasing prices of MI3 series.
series, it doesn't look like it. If they are, they're not realizing it. So, so meaning they
It doesn't look like it.
If they are, they're not realizing it.
probably have the ability to increase price for some smaller players, but certainly the ones
they're targeting, the big buyers, the ones that have the CapEx, I'm not seeing it because it's
not in the numbers. They did claim that most of their shortfall in data center and their negative
numbers there was because of China.
And that's a good thing.
It will flip at some point in time, given that the approvals are being discussed.
But otherwise, very mixed report as far as I'm concerned from AMD.
And that makes me even more bullish for NVIDIA.
I don't think they're being displaced anytime soon or even marginally displaced at this
point.
So that's my thought on Amazon report is probably pushed for Nvidia to Amazon was, is
one of the, a lot of these companies are trying to make their own in-house chimps.
I believe Amazon was one of the ones who were going a little bit more aggressive in that
area.
So everyone, look, everyone is going to make, and at some point in time,
you know, it is going to come out of
revenues and margins of
NVIDIA.
The question is when, right?
We know that
TPUv6 is fully in
production.
My point here is that Amazon
is the one who's underperforming and having
trouble scaling, and they're the one going this way.
Not just Amazon.
That's a misconception.
The AWS CEO got fired because he made a huge bet on Tranium, and that's why they're kind of lagging on the hardware front, and that's why they missed their AWS.
They didn't miss.
They underindexed on their Delta that they beat because their energy and compute constraint
and now uh and that's why you saw the backlog being up 25 when the top line revenue was only 17
so they're they um they were offsides on how aggressive they should have been on their
as ics but they'll play catch up but yeah just want to add that color
yeah i agree uh but but there are delays programs, right? Maya 200 is being pulled back
to concentrate on Maya 300's Microsoft. So there's still space for NVIDIA to peak in their guidance
for margin. And look, I called it here two quarters ago, I said that within the Blackwell
cycle, we are going to see an 80% plus margin, and I will hold that I don't know if it's
coming this quarter, I won't be surprised if it does. But within the Blackwell cycle,
we're going to see an 80% margin for, for, for Nvidia. And that's's that's no small thing uh again i i still hold that this will
not last forever as asics scale up it's going to you know the capex is going to get redirected
there instead of you know completely into nvidia based clusters but it doesn't look like it's
happening wholesale or it's happening fast so give it a few quarters it'll it'll happen but not yet
or it's happening fast.
So give it a few quarters, it'll happen, but not yet.
What else was there?
Yeah, those were my quick thoughts
on what we've seen so far.
Cybersecurity, yeah, I 100% agree with what Shai said.
You're buying growth at 25 times,
I mean, for Hello Alto to do that cyber deal,
they're buying growth at 25 times revenue.
I don't know.
That seems a bit rich, but 15% sell off.
I don't know that either.
So they probably could have wrapped up, you know, Sentinel.
I still think that's a quicker, faster, creative deal than this one's going to be.
But, you know, it does, this one does, you know, bring in a lot of large customers.
It brings in a lot of, it fills in, you know, product tools that, you know, they were nowhere close to, you know, considering a fix for.
considering a fix for.
So puts Okta in crosshairs now,
makes Palo Alto a larger player overall with a wider.
I think that just gave the signal
that Microsoft will acquire Okta
eventually in the next 12 to 18 months.
Identity has always been Azure's QO's heel,
but I'm curious on your thoughts on that.
Yeah, I mean, look,
Microsoft has been doing small deals
in the space for a long time,
and I think they need to do a larger deal.
The problem I see is Active Directory folks
within Microsoft are very strong.
They've been there forever, right?
Better part of 30 years now within Microsoft.
So there might be some pushback,
but I think they should do the deal.
I think it makes sense and they should do the deal.
Okta is not gonna be as expensive as CyberArk
in multiple sense, not in price sense.
And Microsoft can easily handle that.
And I think having that in place would be a solid win for them.
So I think they should do the deal.
I just don't...
Real quick, regarding the Okta and Microsoft.
I don't see how that's going to benefit Microsoft.
I mean, they already have the Active Directory on-prem
that they pretty much ruled throughout the entire enterprise kingdom.
And now they have Entry ID,
which is basically just the renamed
active directory on Azure.
And then they already have federation services.
They already have multi-factor authentication
built into their entire environment, ecosystem.
Sam, it's because their Gardner score,
you can go on the Gardner charts,
their identity is actually poorly scored
compared to the rest of the stack
on the cybersecurity front, in my opinion. And Okta is under 20 times EBITDA, so it go on the Gardner charts. Their identity is actually poorly scored compared to the rest of the stack on the cybersecurity
front, in my opinion.
And Octa is under 20 times EBITDA, so it's actually pretty undervalued.
But yeah, you're right.
I mean, you guys are right.
Like they probably pay 20 billion for Octa when they have a competing ish product.
That's probably lower score.
Maybe what's the urgency and just use that capital elsewhere.
But yeah, I just want to add that.
Yeah. I mean, that doesn't make sense.
It's just, does that seem like a good strategy to put that money toward?
When was the last time Microsoft had a huge acquisition in terms of its Azure platform?
I mean, there might be something in the private sector that I can't really think of right
now, but it doesn't seem like a move that I could see Microsoft doing just based on their history when it comes to their Azure and when it comes to their hyperscaler platform.
I mean, it could happen. Who knows?
But at the same time, like they already offered a product.
They already have a sticky ecosystem.
They already have a cloud that grows at 39% and probably going to overtake AWS maybe in a few years.
I don't know what's going to happen by 2026.
We'll see.
I mean, if it does, that'd be crazy.
But either way, they already have plethora of products,
and they have the bundling power as well.
I don't know what benefit that Okta could provide.
But also, Okta still has that.
I'm not saying it's still a PR issue,
but that's really what took Okta down a couple years back.
I think it was back in 2018. I forget exactly when.
That's what ultimately took the stock down.
I would just say that incident on its own, it's very difficult to shake off, especially since they're not the leader in their entire sector.
CyberArk is a much more attractive product.
It did start pretty small small but they scaled that pretty
quickly and they provide the privilege access management capability that palo alto doesn't have
it might make sense for microsoft to do that but obviously you know you already had palo alto taking
it but adding sentinel 1 to palo alto's basket when they already have cortex they already have
other endpoint security platforms i don't even know if that would be a good buy even if it is
a much cheaper valuation i mean i could see it happening but at the same time would it make sense other endpoint security platforms i don't even know if that would be a good buy even if it is a
much cheaper valuation i mean i could see it happening but at the same time would it make
sense to do that or would it make more sense to buy cyborg i think yes cyborg is a much more
expensive company to purchase versus set in a one but you're going to get a lot more for your money
from cyborg than you're going to get from set in a one by adding another vertical to the entire
horizontal platform that they do have
i don't disagree since cyberarch is a very good deal i just i just think that the price is is insane i mean 25 times revenue i'm not i mean and it also sort of shows that
Palo Alto needs to go out and buy
growth and
internally generated growth is not keeping up.
Nikki, we've had you
hanging out for a while.
Sorry, we didn't...
Anyone can feel free to jump to the conversation, but I definitely wanted to get
your thoughts in here if any part of it has been interesting for you, we have a lot of names about our report
earnings too, if you're watching any.
Yeah.
I mean, my, my focus right now is going to be on consumer brands.
So I know we have Elf at the close today.
I know we have, or have had Wayfair McDonald's.
So I've been kind of watching the trends there because people are concerned about, you know, we're hearing the recession word again.
People are concerned about jobs. People are just concerned overall about where we're heading from here.
So, so far, I mean, we've seen some improvements. Wayfair, McDonald's had some improvements in their comps.
And Elf will be interesting because it's very much discretionary.
Beauty is kind of one of those categories.
So I think my focus will be how does the consumer look going into the back end of earning season where we get a lot of those consumer brands.
I've been surprised.
The consumer's held up pretty well. But is this the end? I don't know. That's where my focus will be.
I'm also clearly very focused on the broad index, the S&P 500 right now. And looking at
this correction, well, I don't even know, can we call it a correction? This very baby dip that we've
seen recently, I've been thinking, okay, do I think there's more room to run higher
based off PE ratios, based off of earnings growth so far this earning season,
based off of what we expect to see in 2026? And to be honest, I'm seeing room to run higher from
here in the S&P 500, which is kind of shocking at this forward PE ratio. But I do think it's a
possibility that we could see kind of this blow off top because a lot of people weren't expecting
the run that we had from that 20% correction back in April. So yeah, that's kind
of what I'm watching, looking at consumer brands. Today, I'll have Elf to kind of gauge. And then
I do think we have room to run in the S&P based off of everything I'm seeing. And the earnings
growth for 2026 is surprising. the estimates are surprising based off of you
know everything else so um is there a disconnect that we need to connect here with people calling
for recession and then somehow um we're seeing this earnings growth and next year we're supposed
to see even stronger earnings growth i don't know will the shoe drop we'll have to see but
um that's kind of what I'm looking at so far.
Can I make a quick...
Yeah.
I think he has to talk and then cut out.
Sorry. No, I'm here. I'm here. So if you look at guidance for our expected growth for next year,
we're talking mid to high teens.
But at the time those estimates were put together,
we were expecting mid to high single digit growths for this year. Now, we're already at 12.1% for Q2 from 6.5, 5.9, 5.8% at the
start of the season. So we're doubling the expected growth rate. So when you look at the
year-over-year compares, I don't think 15% is going to be even possible over an already big run in growth this
quarter, for example, right? So those estimates will come down for sure.
Well, are you talking about for 2026? Yeah, yeah. So Faxed is saying 13%
earnings growth for 2026. And so far, earnings for this earnings season, it's been revised up.
I think technology had a big hand in that and a few other sectors had a hand in that.
But that was kind of surprising, in my opinion.
So maybe, yeah, you're right.
Earnings estimates are always subject to change. We actually, in the beginning of 2025, we were seeing high earnings estimates that started to come down throughout the first half of the year. just still surprised that the earnings estimates are so high for 2026.
Earnings estimates are always subject to change.
So it makes me wonder, OK, well, is this tax cuts? Is this is this rates expected to go down for 2026?
You know, what could what could drive us to kind of hold up here in the index is kind of where my brain is going.
And I've just been surprised they're so high,
but they for sure will get revised if the economy shifts.
But people are calling for recession again,
and I just don't know if I'm seeing that.
If anything, I'm seeing more so a market that could stay at this level and chop around a bit and kind of consolidate up here.
I think people are kind of expecting this sell-off again in the index.
And based off of what I'm seeing, I'm more so thinking, you know what?
What would give people pain?
Is this market actually holding up?
And it very well could.
If the market wants to put a higher PE or higher multiple
because of the top 10 performing well,
then we could expect to kind of see that elevated PE ratio into 2026 based off of that.
Because it seems like the top 10 are still banging out good earnings
and still kind of holding this ship up.
So, yeah, that's kind of my thought there.
Yeah, it's not just top 10, right?
At the big banks too, right?
The financials blew out their estimates, right?
So the estimates are very low, 2.7% coming into July 1st.
And we are at just under 14% growth.
That's 6x what was expected from the financials in terms of growth year over year.
And for people that don't follow data at this level, it's basically financials, healthcare,
and technology that provide most of the S&P earnings.
Two-thirds of the S&P earnings comes from these three sectors, technology plus communication.
Okay, so I just look at them as one for simplicity.
But yeah, those three outperform, S&P will dramatically outperform because they contribute just over two-thirds of S&P's earnings.
contribute just over two-thirds of S&P's earnings.
StarTalk, we are coming to the close here.
Three minutes.
You got any, before we can ask more specific questions?
We got a lot to put out in three minutes,
but I do have a couple of earnings after hours.
I'm looking at Lyft, looking at Magnite, and then tomorrow I have Kratos, Nebius, and Warby Parker, and UUU.
So quite a few earnings at the end of the week for me. And then on Friday, I have Fubo. And so yeah, a lot of names this week.
A man of brief words.
I mean, yeah.
I don't hear you talk about many trades around earnings.
Listen, we have no idea what's going to happen here.
Why was Lyft the compelling one for you to get into?
It wasn't particularly compelling or anything.
It was just a setup that I thought was decent.
I don't think expectations are too high.
Stocks trading at 1x sales. But I feel like also there's something in this market backdrop there.
It's still a hot market.
I don't think you would normally do this in a lot of other times.
No, no.
There's nothing really unique or particular about it.
I just read some notes on the last couple weeks that I thought were interesting.
Frankly speaking, I've been using it more personally, and that kind of was a little bit of an anecdotal cue to me.
But I like the chart. I like when stocks are consolidating here around the 200 day moving
average. I like when the gap up happens on high volume, which it did. And the consolidation
happens on low volume, which it did. So I just liked the technical setup primarily, but I also
do think from a relative valuation standpoint versus Uber, that it's a favorable valuation here. And I also think that when you look at the potential initiatives, autonomy initiatives in Europe with Baidu that were announced, I think that's even more promising. And like, what's Uber's market cap today? 187 billion lifts the 6 billion market cap.
187 billion lifts the 6 billion market cap and as of last quarter i mean they printed their first
positive eps i don't know if they're going to do it again we'll find out but um yeah i don't think
the stock is like ridiculously expensive here you know it's trading out literally one time sales
like a 17 p um you know growing revenues pretty consistently over the last two to three years so
not a super high conviction thing for me.
We'll see what happens here.
Earnings should be out.
What time are those supposed to be at?
3.05?
4.05?
Yeah, any second now.
Something like that.
Yeah, 4.05.
And then we also have Magnite as well.
That should be at...
Market did close there. What a great day for apple you got any comments it was a great
day for apple's great day for big tech in general um you know is that more than apple though centers
energy no one cares well i mean i care it's my biggest position i've been pounding the table
on it on these shows for every day for a long time.
We should give him his bragging rights, though.
Give him his bragging rights.
Yeah, give him my bragging rights.
I think I deserve bragging rights on that one.
No, what?
Yeah, it went a lot higher.
You know, 20% higher off the open, closed 9% higher,
technical structure's back intact on that thing.
I'll give more commentary about the indexes in my general market view once we get through the
earnings but let's get through those first in about five minutes here i know we have some big
ones right off the bell right i know probably a lot of people are looking at ionq probably a lot
of people are looking at app draft kings those should be coming out here momentarily but i mean i think i just said
duolingo mco that's that's where my mind's jumbled education stocks have been doing well
was duolingo sprint nice i'm seeing 252.3 million revenue um i'm seeing eps i don't see any ps oh
tim cook just arrived at the White House. God bless America.
Get him out of the doghouse.
Is this a massive
sell the news on Apple, just
for track record? It could be.
It really could be. This is the big level.
This is the level it would dump at.
If we can tomorrow get above this level
with some conviction, that would actually
be a big statement, but, you know.
It's still out of do. Lift is out.
Shut up. How high? Where are we riding to?
Ten cents
is the report for Gap. It's up
six percent.
That's what was four cents,
so ten cents versus four cents is
the beat. Can you take me
high? I'm not going to celebrate
too early on this one because I actually do kind of have a short
term trade on this.
Revenue is a miss though.
That's rough.
Yeah, revenue is a miss.
Did they raise their guidance though?
They might have. I'm looking through
the report right now.
Gross bookings was raised from
4.59 to 4.65 to
4.8.
Q3 guidance is higher.
The EBITDA guidance is in line.
But the gross bookings guidance is up.
Yeah, it's going red now.
Airbnb's out.
What's this one doing?
They posted the website.
That's going to take a while to get through.
That will hit the wires in a minute or two.
Airbnb. What's the stock doing? minute or two. A, B, and B.
What's the stock doing?
Lift now down two, three.
Symbiotic reported.
This is why I don't trade around earnings.
Yeah, go.
They missed on earnings. Minus five cents.
Expected minus one cent.
Revenue came in at $592.1 million.
They were estimated at $533.
So they beat on revenue.
Missed on EPS.
Stock is down 14%.
Airbnb.
EPS, $1.3.
Being an expectation of $0.93.
$6 billion share buyback.
For who?
Airbnb?
For Airbnb.
Yeah.
Nice.
AB&B.
$6 billion share buyback.
New. New $6 billion share buyback. New.
New.
Six billion dollar share buyback.
And new.
And still.
Airbnb stock has not been great.
I had this talk with someone that hasn't been good and isn't good aren't the same thing.
Duolingo is up 20%.
Jesus.
Sorry. Sorry.
Six.
A new six.
Joseph Carlson's going to be happy about that one.
Guys, it's still...
Just say something about RoboTaxis
a hundred times on the call lifts. Still time.
Even Airbnb had a nice pop
initially and came back.
Oh, lift down seven now.
Yeah, big reversal on lift.
I think it's the bookings miss,
but nice EPS beat
though. That was a very nice EPS beat.
10 verse 4 wonderful quarter see that's one position sighting sizing matters
Yeah, it does it does yeah, I mean
3% 1.4% hit on that probably that's like
Yeah, I mean for how high beta my portfolio is it's nothing
high beta my portfolio is this nothing I don't see the report on that did they
you have the numbers on that I'm looking for it the whole my so much stuff just
came out here for the net all just reported yeah so give it a minute Zillow
I'm Q yeah I'm seeing that one.
TKO Group.
I know we talked about that one at some point.
The UFC.
The UFC.
And now, introducing the TKO Group numbers.
Emp, read them out.
I'm trying to find them, dude.
DoorDash came in. Most things just came out at once right there
in those last five minutes.
DoorDash came in with a beat
on revenue. They came in with a beat
on EPS as well.
Marketplace,
that's meant to be GMV,
also beat. Outlook,
also above expectations.
This looks like a DoorDash number that could be moving higher. I feel like
someone was talking about this recently.
Yeah, DoorDash up six.
We'll see if it can hold.
Oh my god. Damn.
Jack in the box missed.
Damn it. Sorry, Stock Talk.
Jack in the box.
Rough day for Stock Talk.
I don't even like
Jack in the Box. You're going to stop perpetuating
this rumor. People are going to think I love Jack in the Box
and Red Lobster.
I'm a man of great taste.
Red Lobster, I'm a
lobster. You get a
chicken sandwich and two tacos at the same time.
Fortinet
with a beat on
revenue.
I got elf numbers here, double beat.
We got EPS at 89 cents versus 84 expected.
Revenue, $353.73 million versus $353.51 million expected.
Is it up on that?
Bumble.
Bumble up 8%.
Bang, bang.
Ooh, app-loving.
Literally a quarter million dollar beat.
It's not that much.
I mean, to be honest.
Guys, Bumble revenue beat expectations just as even above.
Total paying users fell 8.7%.
Good quarter, guys.
But stocks up 8%.
There's so much information right now. You read the app-loving? Stock's up 8%. Robinhood just released.
You read the Apple?
Robinhood released monthly metrics.
Is Robinhood moving right now?
Hood, Hood, Hood, Hood.
Hood is not moving.
Evan, we got Apple 11 already or no?
You can read it out.
I want to see it.
For us, Apple 11's down 13%.
Apple 11, revenue, 1.259 billion versus 1.22 expected.
EPS, $2.39 versus $1.98 expected.
Fake news from Evan, by the way.
That's when Robinhood is getting...
They just announced when they're going to be releasing their numbers.
The quarter or monthly numbers.
I saw it.
It was like Reddit out.
PKO Group, inline EPS, beat on revenue
A lot of inline numbers
hitting the tape in the last couple days
Bumble has a new CFO by the way
Alright guys
I need everyone to go take a lift right now
Get out the Ubers
Get in the lifts
Actually still right now. Get out the Ubers. Get in the lifts.
Actually, he's still in.
Yeah, that's going to be a pass for me, dog.
They don't even have him in Mexico.
Also true.
DraftKings should be out in about seven minutes or so.
That was a 415 guy.
My guess is there's a 2x DraftKings ETF.
There's a couple. Ooh, T-Rex.
Got a Rexhares.
Did you know that there's a 2x DraftKings
ETF?
It does not have much AUM behind it.
I think they just launched it, actually, this week.
It's brand new.
DKUP.
I think YieldMax has a new one, too, for them. It's like brand new. DKUP. I think
Yieldmax has a new one too
for them. It's like a Yield producing
one. Did we go over DoorDash?
I think we did, but...
YouTube revenue, $3.28 billion
versus $3.16 estimate.
EPS, $0.65 versus $0.44
estimate. I am seeing...
Where the hell is Magnite?
Do you guys have it?
Okay, there it is.
Got it.
Nice.
Does anyone have any thoughts on DraftKings?
Better not look at DraftKings yet. I don't see the notes. I own it. Nice. All right. Does anyone have any thoughts on DraftKings? Better not look at DraftKings yet.
I don't even know.
I own it.
No, what I'm saying is do I test out the new product from my sponsor
and lose some money in DKNG, the 2X, the DKUP?
I don't know.
I don't know.
It's up to you, my friend.
All right.
Stock talk said no, so I'm going to do it.
Let's see what happens.
DraftKings is on the verge, though, based on their last two quarters, right?
Last two quarters, DraftKings posted $1.4 billion in revenue per quarter.
DraftKings is on the verge of setting a new standard for their run rate.
If they can post another quarter like that in Q2 of this year,
if they can keep up the 1.3 to 1.5 billion dollar quarterly revenue this year,
then that'll be good for them.
But I mean,
let's not pretend that it's not an expensive stock,
right? Trading at five times sales, trading at like 145 PE. So yeah, that'll be good for them but i mean let's not pretend that it's not an expensive stock right
trading at five times sales trading at like 145 p so yeah it's expensive stock um you know genius
reported today it was actually down like four or five percent on earnings which isn't a big deal
for me it's run like 25 percent the last couple weeks but if you look at the genius report it's
part of the reason why i think genius is a much better way to play sports betting than the rest of these guys.
And part of the reason is the fact that these market-leading digital sportsbooks are going to be very expensive stocks.
They're going to be very hard to time.
They're probably going to get benefit from the broader growth of the industry, but Genius is just a better winner agnostic way to play it. I mean, I don't know if people listened to Genius Call this morning, but the CEO said they're expecting a 60, as in 6-0% growth in media-related revenue in the back
half of the year. They pointed to CFO, that's a former media expert, former NFL, former Disney,
and he's going to be great for tapping into that media rev. So, yeah, I mean, I'd rather play it
through data than I would through sportsbooks.
I think it's a smarter way to play it.
But we'll see what happens with these DraftKings earnings.
Street's been pretty bullish on DraftKings.
Speaking of analysts.
You know, I don't sports bet a lot,
and I just found DraftKings confusing.
What, their UI?
Yeah, so I just ended up using FanDuel.
Oh, wow, that's kind of a
what was the big difference in the UI for you I'm in Texas so I think yeah I
think I don't know it's just easier to use like I didn't really come into this
betting a lot before like having a book or anything I felt like it was maybe
more simple I just looked into DraftKings. I was like, what the fuck is happening?
And then I went into Fanduel.
Joby's lower.
Yep.
Nice. I sold that one last week. How much lower is it?
Tell me. The Joby numbers are...
Okay, there you go. Now I'm feeling better. I feel like those numbers are actually small wins.
The stuff that I sell has to go down too,
right? Not just the stuff that I own.
The Joby is... 100% for you.
EPS minus.
Yeah, I sold in the high 17s from 950.
So I'm not mad at it.
I doubled my money in like three.
You can buy it back.
Exactly.
I can buy it back when it comes down to retest if I want to.
Although I do think this is a separate point,
but I think the valu valuations and Evie are
getting a little long in the tooth I mean that's why I sold Joby because when
we got along on it was like an 8 billion valuation that if floated to a 15 16
billion valuation in four weeks like what are we talking about these companies
have no revenue yeah they might be commercialized in like 2026 but at a
certain point I just can't do it smr give you my full
transparency yeah i'd rather buy tesla at a trillion than uh than joe yeah but you're also
a large cap bias guy like i'm somebody that's smid cap bias right so i'm used to companies that have
not a lot of earnings or not a lot of sales like i'm used to it you know and i can justify it
sometimes if they have the right product set or they're in the right theme.
But like, SMR is another example.
In fact, Joby and SMR for me were both doubles this year, and I sold them both, quote unquote,
too early, right?
Like, I bought SMR at 18.
I sold at like 37, okay?
The stock went to whatever, 60 or 55 or whatever it is joe b i bought at 950 i sold
like 1780 literally five days later the stock was 20 plus now today it's down but you know my point
is is that these things went higher from where i bought them and i sold them not because the charts
were breaking down but because i was like dude these are pre-revenue. Like SMR, when I sold it, was a 12 billion market cap with no revenue. Like I just can't hold that. You know, could it go
higher? Sure. But I just can't hold it. Same thing with like Oclo, NNE, like, like all the
technical traders are like, look at Oclo, look at NNE. Like, and I'm like, yeah, the charts look
good, but like, are you just going to indefinitely hold 10 12 15 billion market caps with zero revenue like
what's the what's the point at which you draw the line in the sand and say okay this is ridiculous
draft kings doing draft kings just moved original move was up up two percent uh 1.5 billion on
revenue is what they reported that would be a beat of 1.4 revenue
growth is 37% or the EPS the actual numbers here I don't they SPS I'm seeing
30 cents but that would be a miss. I see 38 cents.
7% miss.
And I see revenue at 1.51 billion as well.
Topgolf actually beat on revenue for once Magnite's absolutely ripping
So that's nice to see
It's up 7%
BKNG is up 5%
Yeah, Magnite posted a really, really, really
Monster report considering how high
Expectations were
Magnite posted a monster report
They posted $0.20 versus $0.12
EPS, $173 million In revenue versus $154 in revenue.
That's amazing bottom line growth.
Posting $0.20 of EPS for them now.
PE is going to change as a result of that.
Yeah, the Magnite report is fantastic.
Yeah, the PE's changed a lot. Yeah, the P's change a lot.
The E's change four times a year.
That's true.
That was actually funny.
Burn!
That was funny, though.
I didn't believe I had an opportunity to buy Magnet at $12.
I didn't believe I had the opportunity to buy Magnite at $12.
Didn't do it.
Didn't do it.
I just want a little more confirmation on some of these DraftKings numbers.
The initial move was up.
I did buy some of that ETF, but it hasn't really moved yet.
I just don't think there's enough volume.
Well, it's probably not going to have much volume because it's brand new.
And after hours.
So, we'll see.
I may have to end up, depending on if
Magnet can hold this move tomorrow, and we'll see
because a lot of earnings have gotten faded, but I may
have to end up exercising those 17
calls I have.
Because stock's pushing 25
here in After Hours now.
So those are going to be $8 in the money.
I have a lot of them.
So maybe I'll sell half and exercise
half. We'll see. We'll see how it opens tomorrow. I don't lot of them. So maybe I'll sell half and exercise half. We'll see.
We'll see how it opens tomorrow. I don't want to get
ahead of myself on after hours and pre-market
moves. Those can change.
But it's up to 10% now.
You guys do 49 already?
Yeah, I think we touched
on it.
We've touched on everything. I'm seeing the draft
Kings number. People reporting two different things for the EPS.
So I want to do a little deeper.
Oh, the stock's up 6%, so.
I guess whichever number's better.
Roll Tide.
Go with the better one.
Roll damn Tide.
I wonder what the average,
like, okay, wait, let's dig into this quickly.
Average revenue per monthly unique player is $151.
That's not like how much they're betting, right?
That's how much they're making per month
of the average person who's active, right?
So...
I don't know.
To me, that seems like, okay,
it's costing $151 to use this app every month.
Monthly unique players increased to 3.3 million.
That's how I read that number.
Is that correct?
I mean, obviously, average is skew stuff.
App 11 went from down 14%,
now down only 2.5%.
All right, lift, question mark?
Down about 7.
All right, small wins.
We're not down 14 anymore, or 10 or 12?
I think it was down 14, but I think it was down about 11 at one point.
Small wins.
Small wins.
Small recoveries.
Small recoveries, modest recoveries.
Modest recoveries.
But yeah, no, that Magnite gain should cancel out the lift loss for me.
We'll see how the math works out tomorrow morning.
Magnite's a bigger position, so it should cancel it out.
Bitcoin, though, acting a little nicely in the last couple hours or so,
last couple hours or so coming into this 115 three spot um i guess i'll since we're past the
coming into this 115.3 spot.
earnings i'll jump in with a little bit of general market commentary but obviously i touched on
centrist been touching on it plenty great report this morning monster epsb and um wonderful reaction
from the stock for the most part obviously it faded into the end of the day it was up about 20 off the open closed up by nine percent uh but a lot of stuff faded intranet so i
wasn't too surprised by that um amazon tesla most big tech had very nice days today materion which
i've been touching on in these spaces lately a lot as well the beryllium stock that i've been talking to you
guys about doesn't seem to want to go down it was green again today now five out of the last six
sessions green for that name emerging above the 200 day moving average and frankly um no give here
you know that you had this thing poke above the 200 day uh on a get nice gap, curled back in, retested both the 200 and the 90. Bro, if this candle's
real. What?
Something just happened to Apple. I don't know if that's a real candle
or not. What happened to it?
No, nothing happened. It's flat. I see it flat.
Okay, good. Alright, good. I'm sorry.
I just see a candle that brought it down.
He's not going to lose a break, right?
23 hours a day and just waits for something to happen.
Bro, no, listen. I just see
on my screen all
of a sudden my whole portfolio ticks down massively i look at apple ticking down massively i'm like
what is happening and we're back up i'm sorry okay all right so a little little panic moment
there from evan but yeah anyway uh materion popped over this 208 confirmed the uh breakout perfectly uh at the nine and 200 confluence and then since
then has moved from 91 to 109 in five sessions six sessions uh that's a big move for a stock
like this that's not a high beta stock you know it's not a tech stock it's a materials and metal
stock that's a big move and now you have this emerging above 106. Keep in mind, it's above the 200-day moving average
for the first time since December of last year.
And in December of last year,
it spent about three weeks above there
and just couldn't hold.
Now, this look is very different.
First of all, it's higher volume,
accumulative volume profile,
much prettier than the volume profile in last December
when the stock emerged above those levels.
And on top of it,
it's shown six consecutive sessions of relative strength versus the broader market now emerging above 106
you can clear 110 next week if you can then this thing sees 120s quickly and is in my opinion off
the races at that point and you know you could see as high as 150 by the end of the year on Materion in my view. So I remain very long on Materion and not selling any on that name.
I think the story is still vastly misunderstood.
Again, you have a stock in a rare metal space where most peers are trading at 5x sales, 6x sales,
some as high as 10 or 12x sales, some really speculative names as high as uh infinity sales because they
have no sales but materion trading at just a 1.1 price to sales ratio less than 20 p only beryllium
producer in the western hemisphere highly strategic metal relevant to aerospace and defense
semiconductors space and satellites all the hottest industries it's just too good too good of an opportunity so i think this stock re-rates way higher i don't think this first 15 move is
is the end of it so i'm staying long on that name uh as well uh outside of big tech and material on
leu most stuff having a cool off today but there was not a whole lot down too much in my portfolio
jenny took like i said a little bit of a post earnings hit but there was not a whole lot down too much in my portfolio uh jenny took like
i said a little bit of a post earnings hit but structure looks intact in my view genius is not
a stock where you can monitor the daily 9 and 21 emas like i do on a lot of other stocks
why pretty simple reason you just scroll through the chart and see that it doesn't respect those
areas you know you have some charts where you pull them up and they trade very well with their 9 and 21
EMAs. They have fidelity to their 9 and 21 EMAs. I generally like to trade stocks like that because
I'm a moving average trader in terms of my technical view on things. I just look at volume
and price and moving averages and nothing else. So for somebody that approaches the markets in
a simple way like that, I like stocks that respect their moving averages
because it makes them easier to manage for me.
Now, Genius is not one of those stocks,
and I knew that going into it,
but the thesis for me also was not technical on this.
It was more so a fundamental thesis,
and that's why I remain in the name today too.
I had no problem with the report.
People are selling the stock on the report
because there was an EPS meet,
but people, I mean, sorry, EPS miss,
but people don't understand why that happened.
It's because the NFL exercised their warrants.
That's not bearish.
And if you look at the monthly chart, it's still, in my view,
one of the prettiest monthly charts out there.
You know, genius monthly chart.
Look at it over the past five years.
Gorgeous.
You know, to me, it looks like it's headed to 14, 15 plus.
You look at Ben's March note this morning intraday.
I thought it was wonderful.
They raised their price target to 14.
They said basically the same thing.
The market's not understanding the EPS miss.
But Genius's monthly chart with all the volume stacked on the right side emerging into range
reminds me a lot of other monthly charts that I'm in in terms of my core positions.
You look at Kratos' monthly chart.
Pull up Kratos
monthly. Scroll out. Scroll way out. Scroll 25 years out on Kratos, if your chart can do that,
depending on what platform you're on. Go 25 years out on Kratos. Tell me where that's headed. I
think it's going to 100. Go on LEU. Go 25 years out monthly. LEU is testing its 200 month moving average for the first time
in 10 years. In fact, the 200 month moving average emerged in 2015. The stock has never
even come close to touching it since it emerged. And now it is. It is touching it now after this
monster run this year. What's the breakout going to look like over that?
I mean, I don't want to get too hyperbolic, but I think it's going to look insane.
So a lot of these core positions I have have very similar monthly chart looks.
All the volume, and I'm talking about when I say all the volume,
I mean all-time volume stacking on the right side of the chart.
Stocks emerging above major resistance, multi-year bases.
In the case of Kratos and LEU, you're talking about multi-decade bases,, multi-year bases. In the case of Kratos and
LEU, you're talking about multi-decade bases, not multi-year bases. That's why I remain long
those names. It's a bigger picture point of view when the daily charts are breaking down.
You know, I know a lot of swing traders and scalp traders that are good traders,
right? But they get out of things too early because they just are laser focused on the
daily charts
and they don't compound anything because of that you know for me when i have my focus on my core
positions on the monthly chart that gives me an ability to stay in these stocks through the daily
and sometimes even the weekly volatility now on the flip side on my trading positions i am just
looking at the daily and the weekly i don't care about the monthly side on my trading positions. I am just looking at the daily and the weekly
I don't care about the monthly chart of my trading positions because I'm not trying to hold them for four or five years
Or three years or two years or even one year
I'm just trying to hold them for a couple of months get the juice out of the position and move on
So on those I am looking at the daily and weekly charts and I kind of make this distinction a lot
I do workshops in our community. I'm actually starting a new weekly workshop with our discord community uh this weekend but um i go over this in my workshops like
your thesis of your position should depend on how you're viewing it technically when it comes to the
time frames if you have a longer term fundamental thesis on your position you should not be staring
at the daily chart every day asking yourself you should get in or out of the stock if you have a
trading position you probably should but if you have a longer term position no you should be looking at the monthly
chart and tell asking yourself what is the monthly chart telling me where's price headed
you know in the longer term yeah am i gonna have to sit through volatility in the meanwhile
drawdowns pullbacks yeah you know i i had a big drawdown last couple weeks as of today after the
move in leu i'm back to 132% year-to-date
performance. So I stick with my guys. I stick with my core positions until something actually
changes. I had people tagging me today with Genius. They're like, oh, Genius is down 4%.
Are you selling? I was like, no. There's nothing in the report that would make me sell. In fact,
I thought the report was better than I expected it to be, frankly. Yeah, there was an EPS miss, but again, it needs to be contextualized.
So yeah, I stick with my core positions, and those are what drive my performance.
The stuff that I trade around them is great.
It accelerates performance.
It gives me some more dollars in my pocket, but it's not the performance driver.
The performance driver are the core positions, which for this year for me have been Kratos,
Nebius, Centris, Robinhood.
Those four stocks have driven almost all my performance this year.
Yeah, there have been other big winners, Joby, ASTS.
Like I've had some stocks that have doubled, SMR, and have provided me runway.
But the dollar gain on those positions versus the dollar gain on Centris and Nebius and Kratos and Robinhood pales in comparison.
And so I'm a positional portfolio manager more than I am a trader or an investor.
That's how I view my style.
I have baskets of stocks and I navigate them as a portfolio manager more than like, you know, marrying an individual stock or, you know,
trading an individual stock. I try not to sell my high conviction stuff flippantly. You know,
I try not to sell it for a 10 or a 15% gain because that's not what I'm looking for from
those stocks. I'm looking for multi-month or in some cases multi-year compounded returns with a very low cost basis
that's what I'm looking for and that's what drives portfolio performance so yeah a lot of stocks
working well on a day like today you know I didn't expect my portfolio to be up because in terms of
the number of positions I probably had more socks read today than I had green but because centrist
energy is my largest position by waiting and that thing ripped to the upside
that provided me a lot of cushion today uh my portfolio was able to squeeze by green so
yeah i'm fine with how things are going this earning season's almost over for me
by the time this week is over i'll have pretty much everything in the portfolio reported which means next week and the
week after uh is the fun stuff where i get to concentrate positions cut some lower conviction
stuff size up on some higher conviction stuff and kind of get my position stacked down to sub 15
going into q4 which is where i like to have it so yep i am chilling very very okay with this market
action in terms of the indexes today was a nice day in terms of just the price action.
But yes, the last two days were low volume, which isn't necessarily bearish.
But you would like to see some higher volume start to participate on this buying.
You also have now new tariff concerns with Brazil pushing back,
threatening to call India and China. I don't know where that's going to go. Trump and India seem to be stuck on the
trade deal because of Russian oil purchasing. I don't know where that's going to go. So there
are some overhead trade risks still in the market that could lead to another big gap down candle
out of nowhere. I think the back half of the year, we probably have concerns about labor data.
September rate cut odds coming at a last Fed meeting, we're sitting at like 70%. They're now at like 90 plus percent. So it looks like we're getting a rate cut in
September. The question is, will it be too late? Will the labor data between now and then be really,
really ugly? Because if it is, markets could go down ahead of that first cut. And the first cut
could be interpreted as like sort of
a panic from the Fed and that probably wouldn't be good for markets. So there are risks even though
the technical structure is fine even though today's move on the indexes was ideal in terms of saving
the price action from that 21 EMA forfeit we know how quickly things can reverse so I think you
probably stay cautious in the back of your head about those overhead risks but you keep dancing while the music is playing until the technical structure
breaks down the indexes it's really hard to get cautious so I'll wait for that to happen as I
always do but yeah that's my general comments I know Danny joined us up here Danny yeah do you
want to chat about some things I know you nailed a lab so I don't know if you want to recap that or
what you wanted to touch on but what's going going on? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Actually, I wanted to just touch really quick on what you had mentioned about Joby,
because without Joby, there is no A-Lab, there is no VSAT.
And what I'm saying here is that I sold Joby way too early, way too early.
And because I had my swing traders hat on, I didn't have my thesis hat on.
And, you know, I still had good gains. I didn't get a double. I was up maybe 50, 60% when I had my swing traders hat on, I didn't have my thesis hat on. And I still
had good gains. I didn't get a double. I was up maybe 50, 60% when I sold my last lot. But it was
a hard lesson to learn watching that thing continue to go without pulling back. And I had to really
rethink my strategy on names like that. And so when Alab came around, I held, and I'm up, I think it hit 98% today on my shares.
And then when VSAT hit on Monday, right now I think I'm up around 75% on those shares.
I just sold a fifth of those shares today when it was up around 65%.
So without Joby, for me, there's no VSAT, there's no A-Lab, because I wouldn't
have had maybe the conviction to say, I like the story, I'm going to stick with it for a little
bit. So I think there's definitely something to be said about that. But yeah, I mean, A-Lab
really was, and honestly, VSAT, they were the same technical setup. They were both high tight
flags. They both had 100% rises in four to six weeks. They both consolidated in time in a tight 20% to 25% range for a few weeks. And I just found really solid entries.
on the first that got me really perked up and interested in it. Then I noticed the technical
setup and I'm like, wow, this is like, you know, a perfect mix right here. I'm going to start
building a position. And then obviously things kicked off on, uh, on Monday and here we are.
But, um, yeah, I mean, it just goes to show, you know, when you have conviction, uh, and you build
a position, maybe you shouldn't sell so fast. And, uh joe b i was able to hold on to a lab and
and v sat and i'm still holding some yeah i agree sometimes those sometimes the um and they're not
even mistakes right selling for profits never mistakes i don't want to phrase it that way but
sometimes the unideal management decisions is where we'll put it lead to more ideal management decisions on the
next stocks and here's another thing too there's stocks that i sold early this year that i then put
the proceeds of selling into a stock that performed better so is that selling too early no right that
that's not the same thing because if i if i bought a stock and it doubles and I sell the stock and then I take that
capital and put it into another stock that doubles and the stock I sold ends up going
another 30 or 40% higher, well, my net return was actually better by selling and moving
to the other stock, right?
So people don't think about this because they don't track it.
You can track it by journaling. You can also track it by just once you're experienced enough,
you just remember where you redeployed your capital. But people don't track that, right?
People don't track opportunity costs in their portfolios. That is part of what produces FOMO
and fear and greed and new traders is this idea of like, oh, I sold this stock and it went higher.
So I made a mistake.
What did you do with the capital?
If you yeah, if you sold the stock and just held the capital in cash and went 100 percent higher.
Yeah.
Technically speaking, that's an unideal management decision.
But if you sold the stock and redeployed the capital into some options that went, I don't know, 500 percent higher.
No, you didn't. You didn't make a bad decision because you got a higher net return on that capital over the same period.
So once you start phrasing it in that way of opportunity costs and mentally viewing it that way, that for me, at least, significantly helps with FOMO.
Because I'm like, oh, dude, I use that capital for something else.
Like, what am I mad about? And that wherever I redeployed it, it worked out well. So
like once you start making those recognitions, it makes it easier to live with your decisions
because you're like, OK, I, you know, I needed that money anyway. And usually, at least in my
case, when I'm selling, it's a mix of all those factors. When I'm selling something, it's not just that the stock is breaking down.
It might be that I have less of a cost basis advantage on that name as well.
And on top of both of those factors, I may also be limited on buying power or limited
on, you know, I have maybe too many positions in the book to manage for my taste or whatever.
I mean, it could be seven different factors, but those are just a handful of reasons why
I would say, hey, I'm going to cut this position.
And sometimes like there's stocks that I really love that I don't want to cut that because
of what's happening with the overall broader portfolio, not what's happening with an individual
stock that I just target that stock for profit taking like Talon, which I've touched on a bunch of times.
I love that stock. We were in from, you know, sub 200.
I sold them to two fifties and like two weeks later,
the stock was like 350, you know? And I was,
I was actually kicking myself on that one because I did love that stock and it
was a higher conviction stock,
but the portfolio was in a pullback during that week when I sold it and it was holding up
really well. And I had a lot of profits on it and I'd watched profits disappear on some other
positions. And I was like, you know what, I'm just going to sell it. It was a contextual decision,
right? Was it the ideal management decision? No, but it was a contextual decision at the time that
I just had to trust my instinct on. And sometimes that works. Sometimes it doesn't work.
But over time, you'll get better at making those decisions.
Like Danny's a very experienced trader,
but he just mentioned an example
where he just learned something about management
in the last few weeks.
That happens for me all the time as well.
Like I've been trading every day of my adult life
and I still have things where I'm like,
I shouldn't have done that.
Like I...
What's this Japan headline?
Japan, US to impose additional 15% tariff on Japanese imports?
Oh my god.
Yeah, I just saw that come through as well.
It's on top of the existing stuff.
What is this?
Kyoto is the source on it, so it's coming out of Japan.
K-Y-O-D-O.
Try and pronounce it again.
Kyoto? Kyoto? K-Y-O-D-O. Try and pronounce the N. Kyoto.
I don't know, dude.
I have only Spanish background.
I have zero Japanese.
Spanish is good.
Hmm. Interesting. Hmm Interesting
And funny that comes out right before we hear from Trump
I'm trying to see whether this is
Wasn't he supposed to have an announcement at 4.30
Or a meeting or something
Yeah he was supposed to that's true
Yeah him and Tim are going to talk here in a few minutes The Wall Street Journal Wasn't he supposed to have an announcement at 4.30? Or a meeting or something? Yeah, he was supposed to, that's true.
Yeah, him and Tim are going to talk here in a few minutes. The Wall Street Journal.
Is he late to the stage?
He's always late.
You're just early.
None of these things have ever started on time.
It comes to a point where we're just early
and they're not late at this certain point.
I want to see more on this,
this Japan story though.
Cause I'm reading right now.
It's, it's unclear based on this article from Kyoto.
The people who are tweeting it are saying it's on top of existing
tariffs, but in the article it
says regardless of existing
rates,
I don't know if they're...
This is unclear.
It's unclear if this is
actually on top of what they announce.
I'm sure the White House will say something about this momentarily.
They usually comment on these kind of stories.
This one's weird, yeah.
That one doesn't...
You're not getting a big reaction.
Yeah, I know.
I didn't know what the stocks to look at.
I looked at Toyota.
I was just looking at the broader market.
It's a fairly small
muted reaction here.
Do we care about
tariffs at this point?
Yeah, I think the market started
to think we were getting settled a little bit.
It's changing that on Japan.
To me, what that tells you is that
hey guys, $500 billion to spend however
I want on different things
feels like the signing bonus,
the American signing bonus.
He wants that Shoei Otani
money back.
Evan, there's a press release from Apple.
$600 billion.
Boom!
Out of the doghouse. Stock's not really
moving, though. Obviously, this is what I was saying
is there an actual press release though?
yeah
there's an actual press release out somewhere from Apple
figured you had no D's on for Apple
I am Apple
Apple's been such a dead trade this year
I mean I feel like maybe they're close maybe but it's's been such a dead trade this year. I mean, I feel like maybe they're close, maybe,
but it's just been such a dead trade.
I had to hop on.
I'm just here for Apple to drop.
I mean, I just got to laugh.
Like I said, they've been close.
What have they been close to?
I'm literally just coming on now on Apple days, just to, you know, six figure portfolio move today. Uh, woohoo. I'm down
year to date, but I'm happy. It is what it is. I just posted about, you know, some guy posted,
he bought, um, $20,000 worth of, uh, Palantir about five years ago. And now he's a millionaire.
about five years ago, and now he's a millionaire. And my point is, hey, my average cost of Apple
today is $20,000 since 2004, and it's a significant multi-multi-million dollar position.
So I'm happy that it's up, but I agree with the whole panel. Do not buy that damn stock. I think
it's a $260 stock, but honestly, that's probably a long way away uh corning
corning glw apple and corning partner to manufacture 100 percent of iphone and apple
watch cover glass in kentucky corning up six percent in after hours so the interesting thing
with apple it's it's actually put in a high volume candle today. It's the highest volume candle,
since the April lows.
So take that with what,
you know,
with whatever you will.
But,
yeah.
You said it again.
Was it good or bad?
that's how you want to interpret it.
If it's good,
say it again.
If it's bad,
you can,
I'll,
I'll listen to the recording later.
What I said?
No, no. Evan just loves Apple, so he's
trolling you, Danny.
He's in love with Apple.
I'm sorry. I was also...
I was a little distracted trying to get this corning out.
Come on, StuckTuck.
You're fired up about the glass being built in America now.
Yeah, no, I am fired up about that.
I think it was the sickest thing to announce this whole week,
honestly. What a great... For corning according though this is company has gotten a really big
data center kick behind it now we're going to talk about an apple one here i'm surprised the
catalyst watch guy isn't over there going crazy catalyst watch guy is not going crazy apple has
not had a catalyst in like the last decade No, for Corning. Corning!
Corning is up 4%. And it's up a lot since...
Look at the
daily on that.
Wow.
This is a new $2.5 billion commitment from Apple.
I would have loved it at 47 if I'd seen this chart.
It's like
exactly my type of chart.
Corning at 47, like that where it comes pops over the 200
921 peeling through I would have liked this back then but not anymore. I mean it is high and tight
Looks nice high and tight on favorable volume profile
Close near the top of that range today too. Looks good. Dude corning looks good. I mean, what are you gonna?
I'm not gonna buy it here,
but it looks good.
Kratos, what, tomorrow morning?
Please, Kratos.
Let's check that up.
Evan's other biggest holding Celsius is tomorrow morning.
I actually don't own any Celsius anymore. Good.
Nope, wait. Let's see.
I might have just made a statement without actually
looking.
Evan owns 490
of the 500 stocks.
A lot of stocks are on the
watch list.
Evan has one share in everything.
It's true. I make my portfolio
available to see. Not for nothing,
but I did kind of call
the top on Celsius on that double top
around 92 and we wrote it down a long way and i kind of started coverage again on it a couple
of months ago when it broke over 35 so it's definitely looking good technically for a base
breakout um we might get a back test of maybe 39 to 35, but I don't hate it, but I definitely don't love
I still don't know
what this Japan headline fully means.
So Kratos is tomorrow afternoon
actually.
I'm still very curious. I think that's a pretty big
one actually if we start reopening some of these
tariff things.
Apple's new 2.5 billion commitment is part of the company extended plan to invest $600 billion in the U.S. over the next four years.
I'm pulling up that full article.
That comment made me think that there might be more partnerships coming.
The headline on this says,
Breaking news, Japan not to be exempt from extra reciprocal tariff per the White House.
Everything else looks like it's behind a wall.
What does that mean?
I don't know what that means.
Not to be exempt from extra...
Does that just mean that they're not exempt from the standard tariff that was announced? Is that what that means? I don't know what that means. Not to be exempt from extra... Does that just mean that they're not exempt from the standard tariff that was announced?
Is that what that means?
I don't know.
It's from JapanWire by...
Yeah, I know.
I read the Kyoto article and it was translated from Japanese.
That's where I'm lost.
That's where it is.
It got lost in translation.
So we'll get clarification on that.
Yeah, I can't tell if they actually mean it's additional
or if it just means that they're not getting an exemption.
That's what's unclear. And I'm pretty sure
if I had to guess, I'm pretty sure
it's the latter.
I don't think that we're putting
30% tariffs on Japan.
That's my guess. I could be
wrong if that is the case.
Rip to the Japanese economy. But
I don't think that's it.
I think what the article is saying,
if you were to take my judgment for it, is that they are not getting an exemption from the standard
15 percent reciprocal tariff. I think that's what it's saying.
Yet every news source is saying an additional 15%.
So I don't know.
Maybe they have a Japanese translator at Bloomberg or something that got that correct,
but I don't know.
Why isn't there been a comment from the White House though?
Why is it Japan telling us what we're putting on them?
That's why it makes me feel like it's not new.
Because it makes me feel like this is Japan responding to what was already announced, right?
Like, if this was some new measure that we were taking, wouldn't the White House be announcing it?
Why would Japan be announcing a new measure that we're taking?
That doesn't make any sense.
Yeah, that makes perfect sense.
Some more Apple.
Apple directly hired 20,000 people in the U.S. over the next four years as well.
Boy, Tim's really trying to get back on those good graces.
Rubio's making a bunch of comments about Russia right now too.
Ooh, Apple dropping.
Nah, what? Apple dropping Nah What
I haven't looked
I mean I'm down 0.5% in after hours
Don't put that evil on me Ricky Bobby
0.68 sir
Alright now we're kind of just waiting for this Trump press conference coming up
here.
You're saying it was scheduled for 4.30?
Yeah, it's always 20 minutes late.
The best way to, like, you'll see a lot of, like, people set a YouTube thing and it'll
say notify me, whatever.
The best way to do is just look at the White House official account whenever it goes live,
the thing's about to start on on X.
Okay, that makes sense.
That's makes sense.
let me ask you why we wait on that the daily we're above the 21 we closed above the nine
above the 20 day whatever your favorite moving average is not you in particular but anyone's
yeah um we're above them all yeah but there's this like trend line that's from all those lows
for all of july that we rejected three days in a row here.
Yeah, I know.
You're marking that bottom trend line, yeah.
Yeah.
The bottom trend line we had is now the top trend line of these three days.
Yeah, that is a little concerning.
I mean, it could also be, depending on your interpretation of it, consider that explosive setup.
But I'm with you because the volume distribution in the last week is.
Yeah, I was going to bring that up next three, three days of falling, falling volume this week.
Yeah.
Three days of falling volume, falling high volume distribution is, I mean, if you're going to use basic VPA, that's not bullish.
So, yeah, that's concerning i mean you could see a rejection here off the trend line and just straight back through
the 21 which would be brutal and if we got that if we got a re-forfeit of the 21 i would hedge
i think i said that last week but yeah that i mean that's kind of what i'm looking at too is like okay this it could be an explosive to your point like i absolutely see that if it gets back
through it today at the high if you just mark like your normal retracement golden phib 618
spy kiki cube both exact high of the day basically was that 618 retrace to from Thursday's Thursday to Friday's
down move. I could see this turning into, I'm not trying to predict price action, but I could see
this like rolling. If it, I mean, if tomorrow goes lower, it starts to make a little H shape,
you know, but until it forfeits, I'm, I'm kind of with you. Like, do I really want to take the,
the big risk? I mean, I'm in it a little bit just full disclosure but i'm just saying i'm lightly hedged here yeah no exactly and and i would i
would pick up like you know five percent hedge probably if we gave the 21 back but a good
analogy for this action in my view is if we go back to where was this sorry I'm scrolling through my chart real quick go back to
like for this June May 27th okay now this isn't a 21 EMA forfeit but May 27th we
come down on this candle and volume profile although we have it stacked in
this instance back then was still distributive
right your two highest volume bars in that five day period were were cells so was distributed
volume profile came down pulled back up on lower volume and then just held the nine and just like
grind it higher from like 505 to 536 you could get that or you could get what happened.
Hold on, I'll scroll further back for this.
You could get what happened back here,
which is a little bit more reminiscent
in terms of distributed volume profile.
Go back to February,
the post-DeepSeek sell-off.
So look at week of February 21st through March 10th-ish.
And what you'll see there is multiple forfeits of the 21
that were bought back up, re-forfeited,
and then resolved higher to 539.
And the volume profile during that entire time was distributive.
But here's the thing.
Following that period, we had the March and April sell-offs.
So that grinding price action with multiple 21 EMA forfeits,
although it resolved higher in the medium term,
led to a much bigger sell-off.
So yeah, I think all the things you pointed out
are valid. I think that we are pushing into the trend line here. The volume profile is
distributive on the indexes. You could see a sharp rejection here. I would hedge if we get
back below the 21 EMA. And yeah, I think all those things are fair concerns. And the reason why, or could be any of the things that we touched on earlier, trade-related stuff, another bad labor data print, I think that would be a better –
I'm trying to think, what good catalysts do we have coming down the pipe at this point?
I mean, obviously, there's a lot of earning stuff going on, but we've got most of the big ones out of the way, except NVIDIA later this month.
Yeah.
And we really don't have any news the rest of this week, which could go either way.
Like, just to be fair, it could go either way.
CPI, PPI next week's really your next big data points.
Yeah, macro points are no longer really an ally for the bulls unless you want to be really specific and say slightly cool inflation prints and okay i'll
expand on this a little bit so last time we i think i touched on this was like on the last
cpi print where we had a space but what bulls want right now is well first of all bulls don't want
more bad economic data because you're already basically at 100 percent chance of a September cut.
You don't need more bad economic data.
That would be bearish, in my view, at this juncture.
So bulls don't want another weak labor print.
I think that would actually be a win for the bears if we got another weak data print.
What bulls want is they want stable labor data until the first cut, and they want slightly cool inflation data.
That means not big beats on inflation, but little ones.
Why do you not want a big beat on inflation?
Because if you get a big beat on inflation, the read-through is going to be that the economy is weakening.
The read-through is no longer going to be that we beat inflation.
We're already pretty close to the Fed target.
We're getting there.
And so we're closer to the Fed target, a lot closer than we were a year ago.
So the run-up in anticipation of us getting to the Fed target, in my view, is largely baked in.
You look at the price action in the markets in the last two years, you ask yourself,
do you think there's enthusiasm about inflation coming down?
I would say it's pretty obvious to me. So there's clearly been
enthusiasm about the downward trend of inflation data. So I don't think you can hang your hat on
that anymore as a bull. I don't think narrative wise, the bulls could say, well, look, the
inflation data is still cool. What they need is you need slight beats. You need like something like
3.1% expectations, 3% posted. Like that's the kind
of stuff you need where nobody's going to panic about the economy, but we also know the inflation
story is still off to the sidelines. And other than that, I just don't know how the macro data,
like other than that very specific scenario, I don't know any other macro data that can really
help the bulls here. Like if you're, what can the bulls lean on in the macro right now? I can't know any other macro data that can really help the bulls here. Like, what can the bulls lean on in the macro right now?
I can't name anything.
You know, yeah, the economy is holding up, but we got a flash in the pan of really bad labor data.
If we get another flash of that, people are going to start getting worried about a recession.
And then stocks, you know, will probably go down in that scenario. So I think right now bulls need a catalyst and bears are hoping for weak labor data.
I think that's kind of where we're standing if you want to be really, really generalist about it.
And I would be in their camp if we get another bad print.
You know, if we get another bad print, stocks probably going down.
So, yeah, there are some technical signs there are some warning signs in terms of
what could happen in the macro but for now for now things are intact both on an individual
stock basis and on an index basis things are still intact like structure wise so
we're not quite broken yet but you, you know, things can break quickly.
They can break in a day.
So, yeah, I think you have to be cognizant of all those things.
You have to stay on your toes.
You have to be really, really a good observer in markets like this if you want to do well.
And that doesn't mean that you just ingest all the noise.
I mean, part of the process is refining your information sources and what you're
reading and what you're hearing. But just be observant. Pay attention to the stocks you own,
how they're acting, and pay attention to the indexes that are relevant to you and how they're
acting. If you do that diligently, you should do just fine. You're not going to nail every top and
nail every bottom, but you should do just fine in terms of managing your risk if you pay attention. If you're one of those people that's flippant and complacent and
you lollygag around, yeah, you'll probably give a lot of money back, but if you pay attention,
you should be able to control your downside and control your risk when those risks do come up.
What's up, Danny? I know we only have a couple of minutes before the next segment, but I'll let you
grab these couple of minutes here. Oh yeah oh yeah totally really quick on talking about that move uh from august into
january you're talking about a 19 move in four months and then from the move from april to now
you're talking about a 32 move in four months so same amount of time much bigger breath in terms
of the move that we've seen so i think this is more of a function of trying to find price discovery to the upside, but also pulling back and letting
things reset. Because even in that move into January, into February, we hit a double top.
There was divergence, similar divergence that was present today. But the difference is RSI and all
the other indicators weren't overbought and now we are.
And so I think this is more of a function of let's pull back a little bit and reset
for more highs because the angle of the move that we've seen off of April is just like super
vertical. So I think there is still more room to the upside. We are in price discovery area.
Yes, the 618 did get hit
um but we'll see what happens but i think there's still there's still some juice here uh divergence
is definitely present so you know we have to be a little more cognizant of that but uh yeah i think
uh good days are still still around the corner appreciate those comments standing yeah it'd be interesting also one other piece i wanted to add
in the fed will meet in jackson hole on the 21st just so two weeks from tomorrow just to go along
with some of the comments that were made earlier what's up gav saw you jump up here with us
good i'm good i just had a intense conversation around UNH stock. Good time.
But yeah, definitely intrigued by this market.
And listen, Palantir, you have my permission to keep going.
So I'm excited.
And I also know we got Adam Patti and some others up here.
I see Mike Scheimer in the audience.
Would love to get him on stage if possible, too. Yeah, absolutely. I sent you an invite there,
Mike, if you want to hop up and talk. Adam, how are you?
I am doing great, guys. Thanks for having me. More interesting days in the market for sure.
So many conflicting signals going on, right? It's tough to just dissect what's going on,
but you've got to stay positive
and look for the opportunities for sure.
Adam, what's the latest updates on your end?
And just for anyone who's unfamiliar,
and you probably are familiar with him by now,
we've had Adam Patti, CEO over at Vista Shares,
on for several spaces, love working together. He has four different ETFs
that are out right now. We've talked a lot about OMAH, that kind of flagship ETF, but
not to be outdone by some of the performance that we're seeing across the board with several of
these others. AIS still up 22.5% this year and more. So Adam, I'm just curious maybe to hear
from you first a little bit, what the latest updates are. And then really within this topic, I think we want to discuss,
there's a lot of people now that still want to heavily invest in growth, but I think they get
scared. Maybe the valuations are getting a bit stretched for them. So you kind of want to balance
like growth with a little bit of maybe income to supplement it, value some of these different
pieces. So really just want to hear from you as to how you've been approaching this market and where you would push retail to think and to research.
That's actually a great question. And it's something I've been grappling with for weeks
now, but even more so now. Look, I'm definitely bullish. I think the economy is in good shape.
I think there's just a lot of geo macro issues
that we're grappling with that we're going to have to get through. And of course, look,
August is a tough time in the market, right? I mean, everyone's on vacation. Volumes are down.
Volatility is up. It's a tough time. So look, I think in the growth area, you just want to be a
little more selective and look for those kind of hidden gems that maybe others are overlooking.
And certainly if you're riding one of the big names and you're doing well,
continue to ride, just be a little, you know, a little careful of, you know, taking your eye
off the ball. I guess the biggest concern I have right now, and I've been digging into this a
little bit on the research side, and I've been posting about it a little bit is, and this is
nothing new, everyone's talking about this is, you know is the S&P 500 is concentrated 36% in eight names.
And the Qs have over 44% in those same eight names.
That's concerning.
And the reason why it's concerning
is that most investors use the S&P 500 and the Qs
as core allocations in their portfolio.
Core meaning large, right?
They're using those as a centerpiece, and then they're satelliting positions around that to try to be diversified.
The problem I'm seeing now is that if you own the SPY and you own the Qs, you really are not diversified.
It's a little bit nerve-wracking
because I think, look, some investors certainly know this, but I think a lot of investors really
don't look under the hood and dig into the allocations to see where their dollars are.
Having eight companies make up such a huge proportion of those indexes is it's scary given the run these things have had over the
you know years right you know for the last really five years or so and you know many of these are
market capitalizations that no one has ever seen before in the history of the markets even on a
kind of inflation injustice perspective so i i think you do want to diversify. Look, if you look at the market,
you know, it goes in cycles, right? You've got different tilts. You've got a momentum tilt,
you've got value, you've got quality, you've got different, you know, kind of sectors of the
market that take leadership at different times. We have been in a pure momentum driven market,
really, for, you know, five, six years at this point. I think it's time for investors to really look at some of
the other opportunities and try to buy into funds or companies that are giving you a little bit more
of a value play or a quality play or low volatility play, whatever you like. But I think that's
important right now. Yeah, I agree. It helps to have that, not necessarily massive diversification,
but just to be smart with your money with these pieces. Also, we did get that Vista shares account up on stage. I encourage people to go give that one to follow. Great information on the ETF side of things just continues to come out from it. So I'm always excited to be there. Stock talk. I want to pull you into the convo. Get your thoughts on this path we're walking down here and maybe anything that's been standing out to you.
Yeah, I mean, you know,
you mean the general broader markets?
Yeah, and then also,
I think on what Adam was speaking to,
where, you know, retail investors just still looking for growth,
still looking for upside,
but just being cautious,
maybe adding some income,
maybe some diversification,
pieces like that.
Yeah, no, I mean,
I think he's right on point about that.
I mean, I think retail is getting smarter, definitely.
You know, you go back to 2019 and, you know, when this huge influx of retail traders started coming to the market and then they got really accelerated by COVID in 2020 and 2021.
in 2020 and 2021, the confluence of opinion was that these guys would get wiped out of
the market in the first correction, you know, and that this huge surge in retail participation
and millions of new accounts being opened and the Robinhood era was just a trend and
so on and so forth.
And then you see what's happened in the last five years.
Not only have
we had several corrections, I mean, even the one earlier this year was quite a brutal correction
on a single stock basis. Retail is not only still standing, participation is at new highs,
total dollars invested for retail are at new highs, total percentage participation in households are
at new highs, and millions of new accounts are still getting opened every year. So it seems like
an unstoppable trend of democratization of finance. And it's changing markets. I think
whether people want to admit it or not, and a lot of the legacy guys from the dot-com bubble and
before, I think are refusing to acknowledge that markets are changing.
And as a consequence of participants changing, the opportunities change too. And once they've
been through three or four significant market, 20% plus market pullbacks in the indexes,
these people learn how to play the game. And now, like Adam alluded to, they're looking for more strategic exposures.
They're looking for more specific exposures.
A lot of them are looking for more leverage
on high-conviction ideas that they have.
So they're becoming just a better, smarter group.
And I mean this even largely specifically
with the younger crowd.
Like, you know, the kids in their 20s and 30s that are doing very well in these markets,
even though they're doing it in a traditionally frowned upon way,
in a way that, you know, traditionally is viewed as just gambling or overly speculative risk-taking,
you know, has given birth to stocks like Palantir and Robinhood
and these retail-favorite stocks that have 10 or 20x in a couple of years and are still standing
and are still posting great earnings reports.
So credit where credit is due.
And, you know, these sort of very specific ETFs for a lot of these retail traders who
don't want to look for options exposure, they go to these targeted ETFs.
You know, I've had a lot of people since
we started talking about AIS that have come and said, look, that's a really interesting product
for me. I don't want to have to go pick AI stocks and there's a council of expert people that'll
select them for me. That's interesting to me. And you can get targeted exposure that way without
having to think about it much. And for for retail, you know, one thing that retail often has that institution doesn't is a job outside of the market.
You know, and people don't always have the time to do the research and pick the stocks and, you know, be appropriately aggressive when when the time is right and so on and so forth.
So, yeah, I think, you know, they've, they've done
a great job of capturing that niche Vista in general and, and, you know, many other groups
as well. And, um, I think it's only going to get, become a bigger market opportunity in the next
few years because democratization, the trend is, is up and it's exponentially up. And, you know,
now we're starting to talk about, you know, tokenizing assets for the rest of the world too.
That's only going to further increase participation from retail globally.
So, yeah, I think it's a mega trend.
Adam?
Yeah, I mean, I agree with everything you're saying.
I mean, the sophistication level of the retail investor is startling, even really over the last, you know, kind of 10 to 15 years.
You know, how much more intelligent their approach has become to the market. I mean, when I was 25 years old,
I was more focused on trying to find the hot stock that was going to triple or quadruple and,
you know, the penny stocks and things like that. I mean, you know, and I would never win. I would
lose every single time because at the end of the day, it's hard to pick stocks. So, you know,
today's retail investor has a plan. They're looking for diversification. They're looking for income.
They're looking to play trends in a core satellite approach. So to your point, Stock Talk, I mean,
you know, AIS is a great play for those who are really interested in the growth of the AI sector.
And, you know, if you have the time and the, you know, kind of the time to research individual names, you could always overweight those around a core position in a, you know, an AIS type ETF that's providing you that core AI exposure.
So, you know, I think, you know, it's a really exciting time.
I saw something interesting today, or maybe it was yesterday I think the percent in stock talk you just mentioned this um but what was it like 20 of total flows or total trading volume is now retail driven or
maybe it's 25. yeah it's it's it's over 25 now it was yeah it's wild and then the options markets
in certain parts of the options markets especially the far out of the money options markets it's getting closer to 40.
wow you know and that's insane yeah that's incredible and to have the level of sophistication actually be able to trade those options is is really startling and in a good way i mean it's
a very positive thing that people are studying the markets but you know on the flip side i saw
another stat today i'm going to mangle it a little bit, but I thought it was odd. The number of households in the United States that own ETFs is only, I think, around 20 to 25% is what the stat said, which to me seemed extremely low.
So what that says to me is that we've got a lot of growth ahead of us, both in terms of penetration overall in the markets and just in terms of new investors coming online, learning how to trade ETFs and use
them in a well-diversified portfolio. So I think it's exciting times and I'm just happy to be part
of it. Appreciate you sharing those thoughts there, Adam. I want to definitely bring in some
others on the panel. Evan, you got any thoughts here? Yeah, I want to take us a little bit of a different direction i got recently asked about
some of these 2x single stock leverage etfs and the question was are there any of these ones with
multiple stocks in it instead of just one and obviously one of the first places my mind went to
was wild um wild is a ticker it's one of those ones where it has five of those uh well why don't you
explain it you'll do a little bit of a better job than me but i want your thoughts on that one and
and just also the kind of advantages of why having these leverage etfs on stocks with
on multiple stocks instead of just one why that was something that you wanted to do and maybe
be some possible advantages in that yeah no i'd love to talk about wild i love this product i wanted to get some traction
it's the performance has been off the charts um the reason why we we launched wild is um you know
look it's hard to pick stocks even for the best of the best you know you're not right all the time
if you were you know you know you'd be warren buffett right or and even he's not right all the time. If you were, you know, you'd be Warren Buffett, right? And even he's not right all the time. So, you know, people are playing with these double levered ETFs,
single stock ETFs. And, you know, you have a good chance of getting your face ripped off or making
a lot of money. You know, you pretty, you know, depending on the day, right? Trump comes out and
says something in the morning before the market opens and the market goes completely the other
way from where the futures were. So you just never know. So what we try to do is we went into the
institutional market and said, all right, you know, institutional traders, how do you how do you get
high beta exposure? And what was very unanimous in the feedback we got is that they are not actually
looking for single stock names because, again, they they have a good chance of getting it wrong just like
everybody else. So what they do is they put a basket of high beta names together. And it could
be five names, 10 names. It depends on the trader. And this way they get this high beta exposure,
but they have a slightly diversified portfolio. So that's what we did. And we also know that
the market is very narrative driven, right? And narratives are driven by dollars, right? So where are investors putting their dollars? That's where, you know, that's where the excitement is, right? You could gauge that. So what we do is we look at the entire universe of single stock levered GTFs. And every month, what we simply do is we say, we do the analysis and figure out which one of the single stock levered GTtfs and every month what we simply do is we say we do the analysis and figure out
which one of the single stock levered gtfs have the most assets and which ones are growing their
assets the most that's a proxy for investor interest right investor sentiment and momentum
where the dollars are going then we have a systematic approach where we we score all of
the single stock names and we buy five of them
we don't buy the etfs we buy the names so every month we're rotating the five names depending on
where the investors are putting their money so this month for instance we have uh we have alphabet
we have apple tesla palantir and hymns so um look, and this is a perfect example, right? I mean, HIMSS was one of
the top scoring names this month. And so was Palantir. Palantir killed it. HIMSS got clobbered.
And, you know, who knows, right? So, Wild has performed exceedingly well through this entire
earnings season. I think it's up 25% or so in the last seven weeks. And again, performance is performance
that can change. But the reality is we're giving investors the opportunity to get that high beta
exposure, but not make 100% bet on one name. Rather, you get five of the hottest traded names
in one ETF, and we rotate it every month. It's 2x levered. The leverage is reset daily. So we think it's a
great approach to trying to generate alpha with a slightly more diversified approach than just
taking a bet on one name. Yeah, it is really intriguing. And I'm curious to see if the AUM
will continue to pick up for that one,
because I do see it really moving on a lot of these single stock leverage. I think it's mostly
an education thing of people understanding exactly what's going on inside of it. But like you said,
performance pretty much speaks for itself, 18.5% over the past month, even in what's been,
you know, a good month as well for the indexes, QQQ is two and a half percent in that same time period and spy is up a
little bit less than that at 1.6 so the performance is certainly there i encourage everybody to throw
wild on their watch list and take a look at it um want to see if there's others on stage that want
to jump in with any thoughts questions pieces like that um emp it's not showing me everybody
that's on stage so maybe if you i'll turn over to you for a second. If you have a question, and then if you want to throw it around to a person or two, that'd be great.
Yeah, Evan stole kind of my main question there.
I was going to ask about Wild.
That's one that's been all over my radar.
There was another thing that I saw on here, Adam, on the VistaShares website.
If you haven't checked it out, I would encourage everyone to go there, VistaShares.com.
There's a how to invest section. And Stock Talk was hitting a little bit on the AI piece a little
bit earlier. I know you guys were going back and forth talking about the AIS. I've gotten a lot of
questions just around different spaces and conversations I've been in about that. And I saw
there was a post here, you guys referenced an Axios article, and it talks about the Mag7 kind of being outside of the AI piece, that if you're just invested in mega cap tech, that you're missing and put some more commentary around that? Because
it seems like that makes perfect sense to me, but I'm curious where that mindset is coming from,
Adam. Yeah, great. So John McNeil is my partner and co-founder of VistaShares. John was the
president of Tesla, the chief operating officer over at Lyft. He's currently on the board of
General Motors. He's vice chairman of their autonomous vehicle division. He's an A.I. guru.
And this was his A.I.S. is his brainchild.
He was looking a couple of years ago, he was looking for an A.I.
ETF to to invest in and he was looking at the portfolios.
He was thinking, wait a minute, these aren't A.I. companies necessarily.
These are, you know, maybe the hyperscalers.
You know, you look under any of the other ETFs out there, you've got the
you've got the same companies you have in the Qs and in the S&P, right? You've got the Mag7 and you've got some Netflix in there, maybe have some Tencent and some of these companies. So you
already have that exposure in these other ETFs or in your single stock portfolio. But what's going
on is that these hyperscalers, you day they're going to be AI-centric companies
for sure.
But right now what they are, they are the funding source, right?
These are the companies that are deploying hundreds of billions of dollars to raise their
level of compute so they can one day create applications that are powerful enough to add
value to their consumers.
So where are those hundreds of billions are going is into data centers,
building data centers, and building out semiconductor infrastructure. They need
more powerful semiconductors. They need more powerful AI data centers. So John's brainchild
was, wait a minute, let's look at what are the companies that are going into building AI data centers? And what are the
companies that go into constructing a AI, you know, semiconductor? Those are the picks and
shovels. Those are the companies that are often overlooked by investors because they're blinded
by, let's get into meta, because they're putting $200 billion into AI, that $200 billion, again, is going into building AI data centers, for instance.
So when you look under the hood
of what goes into building a data center,
we do this analysis.
So what we do is we analyze the supply chain
for data centers and semiconductors
to determine all the different segments
of going into building out those facilities.
Then we overlay the bill of materials.
What that means is, once you have the supply chain,
just taking data centers, for instance,
it's broken out into cooling systems and racking systems
and fiber optic cable and all the things
that go into building the data center.
You overlay the bill of materials
and all of a sudden you found out that, wow,
30% of an AI data center,
the cost of an AI data center goes into cooling systems.
So that seems like somewhere you might want to invest.
So like Vertiv, for instance, is the leader in that space.
So that's one of our top holdings.
But the premise of all this is that you want to follow the profit pools, right?
You want to find out where the money's going and who's making the money on that.
So Meta is not making money on their investments right now. The companies that are building the
data centers are making their money and their average margins are 50 to 55% across the supply
chain. That's the profit pools you want to get access to. And those are the companies you want
to invest in because they're, you know, most people are not invested in them. Companies like, you know,
GE Vernova is a big name, right? But it's still underrepresented in most investor portfolios.
SK Hynix, a South Korean company, most people have never even heard of SK Hynix. They are a
critical piece of the puzzle in building out semiconductors. So that's what we're trying to
do. We're trying to uncover those hidden gems and find those profit pools. And those are the companies that are in our portfolio rather than being overweighted in the same companies everyone already owns.
and AIS, there's one in here, SK Hynix Incorporated, and it looks like this only trades on the
Korean exchange.
I just want to check and see if that's correct.
And if so, it's very interesting.
I'm curious how you guys get the exposure there to get this into the ETF.
And that seems like a heck of an advantage for just a US-based investor to look at this
and say, OK, well, somebody's getting exposure elsewhere for me.
Yeah, look, I mean, about,
we have about 56 companies in the portfolio,
around 40% of them are non-US.
So SK Hynix is a great example.
It trades on the local South Korean exchange.
So, you know, buying it for any retail investor
trying to get access to that,
it's gonna be very difficult.
So we actually trade on the local exchanges. We've set up the accounts with our trading team in all the countries around the world where we need to get access. We're buying it on the local
exchange. And that's the only way to get access to it because it does not trade here. So that we
do believe that's a big advantage because we're giving you exposure to companies that people just simply don't have um yet it's a critical piece and that's why it's our top uh
one number you know fifth largest holding nvidia for is an interesting example nvidia
started off we rebalanced twice a year so in june when we rebalanced nvidia was down at number 16
because nvidia as part of the supply chain, no matter how important they are and what an
amazing company they are, as part of the supply chain, it's actually not a dominant player across
the entire supply chain. So, of course, it's our number one holding now because it's had a world
record run over the last 60 days. But, you know, so we're trying to provide some interesting
exposure. And that's the whole point of AIS, give you what you don't have and access the profit
pools of where those hundreds of billions of dollars are being deployed today.
Yeah, thank you for that, Adam.
That piece kind of like, it just clicked in my head after the many times that I've looked
into this and looked at the holdings and stuff.
I can't even get exposure to this.
I actually created a watch list based off of a lot of the tickers you guys have in here.
And I was looking at it.
I was like, wait a second.
This isn't even on an exchange that I can get access to easily.
So I appreciate that piece, Adam.
Joe and Noah are also up here on stage.
Joe, I want to see if you have any thoughts, comments, questions here around
the conversation and some of these ETFs we're diving into. Yeah, definitely. Thank you guys for
organizing this. One thing that we were talking about earlier, which resonated with me a bunch,
was this like democratization of finance, which was, we've been speaking about it for a while.
And it's so true. All these tools like these ETFs,
these ETF providers, these platforms like Spaces even just continue to grow and continue to provide
so much value. I know that when you guys started trading was probably way different than when
people start trading today. You can get zero commissions. You need to talk to somebody
that just changes
everything. And what we were talking about with after COVID stock talk brought this up too,
with that Robinhood wave, I know that it changed the way that I make, the way that I test my
automation models. I don't really go before 2020 because I think it's a fundamentally different
market. I think it's a fundamentally different sample space.
And I think that's just going to continue to grow and change.
And in a good way, it's not something that we should try to stop.
It's something to absorb into something that we should try to embrace.
And so these ETFs provide that as well.
Something that we've been seeing a ton recently, as well as this whole thematic approach to investing in AIS is the thematic approach to the AI cycle, which is another way for retail to get exposure to these things without having to take risk in a single name,
without having to actively manage a portfolio,
like we were talking about how the broad market, that Mag7,
you're not as diversified as you think you are,
whereas you would still have NVIDIA exposure, like Adam said,
when it was only at 16th in the holding.
That is an incredible weapon now that retail just wouldn't have had.
And we've been seeing this economy,
this economic stats that we've had with low rates. They're going to, with the rates that
we're at now, they're going to go lower and the economy is still doing fine. So I was curious,
really, for Adam, if they're going to expand into any other themes that we're having here, because I know that the AI theme is going amazing.
The wild ETF has been working well.
The 2X leverage.
I was wondering if you guys are going to go into any other things, specifically like a defense theme.
That's something I've been trading a decent amount recently.
And something I've been looking into is the European defense names, things like Bay System, Saab, Airbus.
Providing a way for people to have exposure to that could be great, could be a different thing that we've seen.
And I'm curious what you guys think about kind of like a defense approach to it, because there's an application of AI there and a lot of different things that we're talking about that I feel like people are glossing over.
European defense is a very interesting space. I don't want to talk too much about future products, but you can be sure that we will be coming out with additional thematic
products. John's vision is around, in terms of the growth equity space, is around super cycles
and trying to harness, because if you look at kind of the terms of the growth equity space is around super cycles and trying to harness
because if you look at kind of the history of the world over the last, you know, couple hundred years,
there's never been a time where there's been more than one super cycle occurring at one time. So
what a super cycle is, is a long-term technology-driven disruptive trend that changes the
economies around the world, changes the way
you live and the way you work. The last big super cycle was the internet, right? And that was a
single super cycle. Now, and if you hear him speak, he says it a lot more eloquently, but
now there are multiple super cycles kind of converging at the same time. You've got AI,
of course, that is the underpinning of many of these, but you've got electrification,
you've got robotics, you've got space, you've got biotech. There are a lot of different things
happening now that are just fundamentally changing the entire global economy. So we
will be focusing on some of these things as we move forward for sure.
Thank you so much. Adam, I know we just have a few more minutes.
Is there anything we haven't touched on yet you want to make sure that we cover?
I would love to just mention QUSA.
It's my new favorite.
I mean, for investors that are looking to diversify away from these large index ETFs,
I'm not saying sell out of them.
You want to hold on to the SPY and the Qs as a core.
But if you want to carve off some holdings there, take a look at QUSA. So everyone knows about Omaha and Best Like Buffett, both 15%
income annually paid monthly. QUSA is similar, except it's a quality tilt. So what we do is we
look at the Russell 1000. We score the Russell 1000 based on companies that have high profitability,
low debt, and stable earnings growth. And then when we apply the same 15% to options overlay,
15% target income per year paid monthly.
It's a newer product, we launched it in May.
Performance has been really strong.
And the quality tilt is typically what you see take over,
value and quality is what you see take over
after a long-term momentum driven market.
So I like to always bring that up because I'm a big bull on QUSA.
Yeah, I definitely, I mean, Evan, we were having this conversation with QUSA.
If you're bullish on America, this is the one to continue to look at.
And I've seen it continuing to tick up here. It's also one of the ones where people have to look at and i've seen it continuing to like tick up here
it's also one of the ones where people have to understand the income side of things and these
target income pieces which makes a lot of sense to me as well so that's the full suite i mean kind
of covered qusa omh wild you know gav is yeah one one thing that adam mentioned last week that i've
tracked was i think it was last week maybe it was two weeks ago adam you mentioned last week that I've tracked was, I think it was last week, maybe it was two weeks ago. Adam, you mentioned to us that it was interesting to have exposure to Berkshire without the exposure to the risk of people overreacting, maybe would be the term, to Buffett.
And I've noticed that Berkshire is down like six and a half percent in this current little trend that it's in.
But OMAH pulled back much less than that.
I thought that was really interesting.
I wanted to just say I appreciate you mentioning that to us the other day.
No, thank you. Yeah. I mean, it's, you know, again, narrative driven markets, right?
Adam, actually news real quick here. President Trump just said, we're putting a 100% tariff
on all chips and semiconductors. Companies will be exempt from the tariff if they've made a
commitment to build in the U.S.
Interesting.
Okay.
Well, we know a lot of the chip companies have already done that.
Taiwan Semiconductor is putting a ton of money into the United States.
It will be interesting to see the price action tomorrow morning for sure.
Yeah, that one's a wild one right there.
Really good stuff. Again, make sure you guys are following both Adam and the Vista Shares accounts that are up here. Great content continuously coming out from there. Make sure you're following the whole panel. Stocks on Spaces up over 40k followers. Love to see it. We've been doing this for a few years. Throwing notifications as well. We literally only do Spaces. And then on Sundays, we post the schedule for the week of the Spaces. So you turn notifications. We won't bombard you.
It'll be well worth your time.
And make sure you're digging in on that VistaShares.com website
for all the details about these ETFs.
Adam, any final comments for us on this one?
No, just thank you very much for having me.
Always fun to talk to you guys
and certainly look forward to the next time.
Beautiful.
And I'll turn it back over to you.
Yeah, I appreciate Adam and the entire VistaSharers team. It's really interesting
checking out all those products. Make sure you go to that VistaSharers.com website to dive in a
little bit deeper there into the different ETFs. I do want to, as before we close out here,
Stock Talk, are you still around i am i don't know if you're fine i know evan's watching
tim cook speak right now but i wanted to ask you if you just had any quick reactions to that
uh trump said 100 tariff on all semiconductors entering the u.s uh with the exemption if they've
made a commitment to build in the u.s which as adam was just saying we know some of them have
made that commitment yeah taiwan's made know some of them have made that commitment. Yeah.
Taiwan's made that commitment.
Samsung has made that commitment.
Obviously Intel is already domestic.
you know,
I mean,
who is the tariff really for like,
it's going to be for some peripheral chip providers.
But I mean,
at this point, I feel like the playbooks kind of leaked.
I mean,
if I'm a foreign company of any kind at this juncture,
I'm just writing a letter to the White House saying,
I'll commit X billions of dollars by 2030 or whatever,
and then just, you know, if you want to do it, do it.
If you don't, you don't have to, probably.
I mean, the commitments that have been made are not like,
there's no repercussions to violating these commitments.
These aren't like, you you know contracts enforced by international law
or something they're just people saying they're going to invest money now a lot of them will
but you know i mean he's saying all countries that make commitments to to invest in the u.s
are exempt to me that means basically everyone i mean everyone's basically made a commitment
apple just made a commitment this morning i mean mean, Apple's not technically a producer, more of a designer,
but TSM's obviously made commitments.
They have three Arizona factories that are scaling.
Samsung is a factory in Texas that's now going to be scaled
in coalition with Tesla.
So, yeah, I guess.
Does that mean those guys are...
You know what I think the broader theme is
that I've seen in this last couple days? thought the india thing was like a one-off because it's
really a russia targeted we thought there was some clarity coming on all this stuff i have no idea
what is happening at this point in time i don't even it felt like we were starting to price in
some clarity yeah we were and we were. And we were not there anymore.
I don't know what's happening with the Japan thing.
I don't know if that's real.
The India thing does feel separate.
That does.
But semiconductors and pharma doesn't sound like...
The thing with India is like...
For people who have studied geopolitics and like, you know,
didn't know the history of like modern geopolitics india is a unique
pawn i don't call them a pawn because they're super power now basically but they're a unique
peg in the global geopolitical system and the reason why is because india has been largely
a neutral power in the modern era and no other superpower in the world is really a
neutral power, right? Like, generally speaking, the Western Hemisphere is aligned with the United
States. And generally speaking, the Eastern Hemisphere is either aligned with Russia or China
or India. And that's usually by virtue of geographical proximity, like the countries
closer to those eastern superpowers are generally more intimate with them due to trade and logistics
and all that sort of stuff. So with India, the difficulty is, is Trump has seen responsiveness
from a lot of countries in response to US.S. tariffs because they cannot survive without the United States.
Like Mexico, Japan, Canada, a lot of Europe cannot survive without the United States.
So, of course, the EU and Canada and Mexico are going to bend the knee.
They have to bend the knee. They don't have a recourse.
Like Canada and Mexico can't say, you know what?
Screw you. Put 30 percent tariffs on us. We'll tariff you back.
They'll just self detonate their own economies. And they know that.
And that's why they haven't retaliated. Right. Like I have some Canadian friends that were like, oh, I wonder why our government isn't retaliating.
And I'm like, because you can't. You literally cannot.
Those are kind of those economies are like wasps to the U.S. economy. You could just,
the U.S. economy wouldn't even, yeah, we might have some issues with electricity generation and,
you know, some energy relationships that we have with the United States. There's small points of
contention that would create some issues for us. But the U.S. economy dwarfs all of those economies in size combined.
So really the point of contention is what happens with China, what happens with these other countries.
And so Trump is used to people caving to the tariff pressure because they have to.
The thing with India is, first of all, India is themselves a very large economy and a very quickly growing economy.
But they have been traditionally neutral when it comes to economic policy. Like they don't take sides. They don't,
they don't refuse to trade with sanctioned nations, right? Like when the U.S. sanctions a nation,
a lot of the world stops trading with that nation. They don't place their own sanctions on them,
but they just comply with U.S. sanctions because they don't want to violate U.S. sanctions and then
face repercussions from the United States.
So people just fall in line when the United States puts sanctions on somebody.
India doesn't do that and has not traditionally done that.
That's why they bought Russian oil in spite of Western European and American acts against
the Russian oil market.
They still continue to buy Russian oil and some of
the Chinese and they probably won't stop because both of those nations have leverage, unlike all
the other nations that I mentioned. So it's a little bit of a different game when you're dealing
with a country that doesn't have to listen to you. And most of the most of the world does have
to listen to us because there
is no alternative to the United States when it comes to being a consuming
superpower like most of the other superpowers are not consuming super
powers like Russia is a superpower by virtue of their nuclear weapon arsenal
and that's it and maybe their energy reserves and China is a superpower
obviously both militarily and economically but neither of them are massive consumers for the global markets.
The United States is.
We make up a third of all global consumption.
So you literally cannot find an alternative to the United States.
Like Brazil this morning, Lula came out and he was like, oh, you know, we're not going to talk to the U.S. anymore because it doesn't seem like they want a deal.
But we're also not going to retaliate, which was funny.
And then he said he's going to call China and India to try to figure out a BRICS response.
China and India can't do anything about that.
China and India cannot make up U.S. consuming power.
Europe can make up a little bit of it, but that's all of Europe.
And all of Europe isn't going to just fall in line and start buying
garbage from you. First of all, Europe doesn't consume the same way the United States consumes.
That's obvious. We buy a lot of shit. We buy a lot of garbage. We buy a lot of inputs and plastic
toys and accessories for your bathroom and showers. That's like a uniquely American consumer habit.
All that garbage that's shipped out, and when I say garbage, I'm not undignifying
the economies of those nations.
I mean like low cost goods.
That's what I mean by garbage.
No one's buying that except Americans in the quantities that are required to float the
economies of Cambodia and Bangladesh and Thailand.
And like, you need the American consumer.
So those countries can negotiate, but India and China can, and like, you need the American consumer. So those countries can negotiate,
but India and China can, and they will. They're not going to just roll over. There's a reason why
China hasn't made a lot of commentary on this since we started negotiating, because China does
have leverage. You know, we don't have a rare metals industry. Why do you think the rare metal
stocks are so hot? Because we don't have a real rare metals industry domestically. And so the markets
are floating up those stocks because they know that government support measures are coming,
right? The five or 10 rare minerals and rare earth metals companies in the United States are going
to have to be supported by the government if we want to expand the industry rapidly enough
to replace Chinese supply. The market knows that. That's why these stocks have gone up hundreds of
percent in the past few months and haven't come back down. And probably, in my view,
won't. And so there are specific industries where there's high strategic relevance that other
nations can push the pain point on the United States. And for China, rare metals is one of
those. For a lot of these other nations,
they don't have pain points to push. And so they have no choice but to comply. But it's a nuanced situation. And India is a unique peg in the wheel where it's going to be very
difficult to get them to just roll over and submit. I don't think they're just going to say,
yeah, we'll stop buying Russian oil, even with the doubling of tariffs.
Like they're going to want they're going to want some sort of concessions from the United States that are favorable for them.
And that's where it gets trickier with India, in my view.
So there's a lot of trade stuff to be sorted out still.
We're certainly not at the at the we're not out of the woods yet when it comes to the trade stuff.
Evan, anything else from you?
Any updates from Tim Cook?
No, we're going off into different areas at this point of this.
It basically sounds like no one's going to be paying that 100% semiconductor tariff.
Will be interesting.
I thought there was a lot of data center talk during this
and it kind of fit with that AIS conversation before.
So I thought that was a little bit interesting.
But he's talking more about Apple data centers.
Talking about them being able to generate their own power,
that seems to be a greater theme that's going on here and continuing.
I mean, it's still part of the same one,
but that's kind of a lot of that Apple stuff that's going on now.
Like I said, Apple came into a very large level here around this 214, 215,
maybe you want to call it 213 or something.
And then, yeah, tomorrow we can break through that with some energy.
It could be a nice move in store for Apple.
But we'll have to see.
Warren Buffett also, we talked about that a little earlier.
He did not sell any Apple.
Small wins, small Ws, lifts.
Lift stock.
Closing out for me, I am, oh, oh, oh, only down five, only down five.
Who knows? We'll see. But, yeah, I think that down five. Only down five. Who knows?
We'll see.
But yeah, I think that we're at a good place on this space.
I appreciate everyone for coming in and hanging out.
You should definitely make sure you are following the speakers.
We'll catch you all tomorrow.
Stock Talk, do you have any final words you want to throw in there?
Nope.
We'll see you guys tomorrow.
Well, yeah, I appreciate each and every single one of you
have a great day team
we will catch you all tomorrow goodbye Thank you.
