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Big Market Debate: Stocks Q3 What’s Next? Outlook for 2026 (Wolf EU) 🇪🇺
Recorded: March 26, 2026 Duration: 1:15:37Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. Good afternoon everyone welcome back to the WolfEU show, our last WolfEU. I'm your
host, Eva Ivetronic. I'm joined by my lovely co-host, Alex. Alex Tutik, how are you today?
Good morning, everyone. I'm fantastic. It's going to be a good show today, I feel like.
Yes, it is. I have a couple of people running late a certain uh
apparently they call him small ryan is that right ryan from florex flow
yeah um yep some people call him small ryan so we've got we've got big ryan here
other nicknames for him but we'll'll leave those out. I was going to say, did we get into that?
I'm just inviting a few more people up here on stage.
Bear with me one moment.
Lovely to see a few familiar faces.
Michael, how have you been?
Busy, very busy.
Chained to the desk 24-7, as Ryan will vouch for.
Oh, mate, aren't we all? Rubbish.
Rubbish.
That's all rubbish.
Don't you love the Brits on the show?
What are you doing here? When did you get an invite?
Oh, I'm the old guard, mate. I've been invited
nearly from the start. I've been popping on and seeing
my mates here. Oh, I
thought they were just scraping the barrel
and that's why you've turned up.
Mate, he's been a Wolf EU OG.
I have to support all my Brits here.
All good.
And then we have, of course, Mads.
Lovely to have you back on.
A pleasure as always.
Yeah, nice to be here.
Exciting topic today and exciting things going on in the world.
So looking forward to sharing my view on it.
Absolutely. So today, as you've probably clocked on from the title, it's really all about what's going on in Q3
and what sort of the uncertainties and what's rest for the year, thoughts and, you know know thesis for 2026 i think that's the big
question mark for a lot of investors um i'm going to bring you from all sorts of angles and of
course we've got a lovely crypto guys here how's how's it all going gordon zio hello everyone happy
to be here again uh everything good thank you thank you yeah let's let's let's dive deep
deep into it it's gonna be a very interesting uh year let's see absolutely and of course i have
to bring my other lovely crypto guys here cam it's always pleasure having you here i don't think i've
ever been referred to as lovely before and the words crypto at the same time but there we go
the first for everything i think the guys have been too harsh on you so it's always when there's a female host uh you know too many guys in this space that they say
um i think we need more female traders yes please yes at the desk are there any female
traders at your desk mix is at the audience so bring her up ryan's been known to dabble every now and again. Which one?
Now, be specific here, man.
I would leave that up to you to determine that.
No, we've got a few lovely ladies in our chat room and on our trading platform, yeah.
Oh, I'd love to hear that.
Yeah, that's good.
Yeah, then they'll shine and give their opinion when they need to.
Trust me.
Yeah, more female power.
And a very, very early morning.
Well, actually not too bad since daylight savings changed.
Mr. Quant, how are you doing, Joe?
Hi, good morning.
Yeah, it's getting better with the daylight savings, not as bad.
Speaking of female traders, yeah, she gave me an idea.
I've got to get my sister a product account.
I really want, I'm just so curious now that I thought about that.
Let's go.
Apparently, statistically, few of my traders are meant to be better than the guys.
That's a fact, yeah.
No disagreement there.
Much easier time putting on risk.
Absolutely.
And of course, we have lovely Jonathan.
How are you doing this morning, this afternoon?
Yeah, pretty good.
Enjoying the London summer, I guess. It's more sunny here now.
So it's nice looking out the window and seeing sun for a change after months of rain.
Yeah, absolutely.
Take a picture of that.
Take a picture. Yeah, but apparently there's rain tomorrow, so don't get your hopes too up.
But apparently next week's quite nice, I saw.
Yeah, we'll see. We'll see.
We'll see. For those who don't live here it's a kind of an on and off button someone keeps pushing I don't
know certain child might be keep pressing it anyway uh who would love to start off I think
Michael you've got some uh interesting uh you know macro news and uh heard you and Ryan talking
this morning on the morning blast.
Yeah, I'm just amazed that anything we said on that podcast might be vaguely considered interesting. That must be some sort of record for us. Yeah, where do you start? I mean,
without wanting to sort of sit on the fence too much and sound like this is a complete cop out.
I mean, the entire macro outlook does hinge
on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. I mean, from a human perspective, I think I'd
probably speak for us all in terms of, you know, we hope that that gets resolved sooner rather
than later. From a market perspective, I think in a macro perspective, I think the equation is quite a simple one. There's two key issues here. One is
the actual conflict itself and two, the uncertainty that that brings. And the second is obviously the
need to get energy flows back to normal and ease some of these constraints that we're seeing
in global commodity markets. I think the sort of working assumption that everyone is operating
with is the longer the conflict goes on, the tighter conditions in commodities are going to
get and the higher energy prices are going to grind. And of course, higher energy prices for
longer means probably higher spot inflation for longer, and also greater growth headwinds on the
back of that as well. So I think it's very much a case of at the moment
that the outlook is as uncertain as at any point in the last couple of years.
Trying to definitively predict exactly what's going to happen next,
be it with the conflict, be it with any of the key macro variables
we look at is essentially a fool's errand.
I think really that's why we're seeing markets
trade this in a relatively cautious manner. Obviously, we're seeing equity futures fall
out of bed a little bit as we start this recording. But the problem is that not only have you got such
a huge distribution of outcomes in terms of what could happen next and where the conflict may end
up. You've also got news flow and headline flow that is just absolutely relentless and is going
from one end of that distribution to the other on, I was going to say a daily basis, but almost a
minute by minute basis at this point. And that makes it really, really difficult for market participants to accurately price risk. And it makes it really difficult
for any economist or strategist to have much conviction in where the economy is going next,
what central banks are going to be doing next. You know, really, that is why we're seeing markets
have such a hard time grappling with what's going on.
Yeah, it's definitely an unprecedented time and something we've definitely not gotten into in so long. I mean, I think it's a big traffic jam in the Hormuz still, which is obviously the main driver.
Well, that's not the only issue either.
I mean, you know, Hormuz is obviously a big problem.
But even, you know, Hormuz opens obviously a big problem. But even, you know,
Hormuz opens tomorrow, you've got ships in the wrong place, you've got a confidence issue,
our ship owners actually get who wants to be the first to go through the Strait of Hormuz
when it reopens. If I own a ship, I would not be putting my hand up to volunteer and do that.
So you've got to set a precedent that, you know, this is now safe and transit is assured. But then you've also got the energy side
and the infrastructure side of things.
Qatar have already come out and said,
we might have to declare force majeure
for the next five years at Ras La Fan.
And it's going to take potentially half a decade
to get LNG production back to where it was going to be.
Not only that.
Where the hell did you come from?
Heard oil in his ears.
I just pricked up a bit.
Wow, yeah.
We all know why.
Jokes.
Go on, Ryan.
Hello.
How's it going, Ryan?
They called you Small Ryan, apparently.
Is he gone?
Is that the last we'll ever hear of him?
I don't know.
What a relief.
I thought he was going to say something too.
Oh, he dropped off.
I think he has a bit of an internet issue there.
Probably hadn't paid his bill.
Oh, no.
Sorry, carry on. Did you want to elaborate on yeah the lng thing is definitely before i was
rudely interrupted by a dwarf yeah i was gonna say the other issue that we've got is how long
it's going to take to actually repair all of the energy infrastructure within the region you know
and that is also going to be a potential factor in terms of how long it takes to restore normal market conditions.
The other thing that's worth bearing in mind is we've had all of, or we are having, I should
say, the release of barrels of crude from strategic petroleum reserves.
They have to be topped up again at some point in the future.
So that's another factor that's going to contribute to the normalisation
or the timeline in terms of normalisation of energy prices, which will determine basically
everything else. Yeah, that's certainly going to be one to watch out for, most definitely.
Forex flow, I know this obviously affects the currencies a lot. What are you looking at on that
end? Yeah, at the moment, as Michael says,
there is only one thing to trade
and that's what's going on in Iran.
You know, we have these,
each week sort of follows a pattern.
We deal with the news in the early part of the week
and as we get to the end of the week,
the market decides to take risk off the table.
It doesn't want to go into a weekend
where something untoward can happen
um i mean you've only got to look at what happened last weekend last to know that and then coming
into this weekend um so really as far as trading is concerned particularly currencies anything
really risky stock indices whatever you want to throw your hat at we still want a lot of volatility
um and and you really you can't really pick a fundamental theme
macro theme to trade in amongst all this because you think the dollar is going to be strengthened
on the fed you know keeping rates on hold and uh we get a risk headline and dollar gets hammered so
yeah you at the moment i'm just sort of trading the headlines uh for want of a better thing but
you've got to keep in the back of your mind what's been going on in the fundamentals.
We've just had all the the February readings for CPI.
So we know where that is before the Iran situation kicked off.
And for someone like the Fed, you know, inflation hasn't been coming down.
So you take that theme if this thing finishes in the next week or two um the
market will pretty much forget it probably a week after after we finish trading and enter the
situation and then we'll go back to trading the macro picture again and um you know michael makes
valid points about what happens in the future regarding oil coming back online production um
but the general market won't give two monkeys about that
if if the situation's over it'll go back to trading other things yeah i absolutely agree on
that i was just looking at the dollar today you know it is looking rather bullish flagging here
on the daily it is you know above the 200 email as well just getting inching closer to the hundred
dollar mark um so that's going to be... You sound like a robot.
Are you there?
Is this thing on?
Maybe we'll come back.
Sorry, I muted myself.
Can you hear me?
Yes, yes, yes.
Sadly, yes.
Oh, maybe not.
It did sound like he was jumping up to speak to the microphone, though.
I know.
You need to put it down a bit closer.
I didn't realise he was that short.
Yeah, great points.
Fantastic points from Michael there and Big Ryan, as they say.
Jonathan, are you looking at anything interesting there for Q3
and for the rest of 2026?
Yeah, so I mean, obviously, as Michael said, and a lot of people have said, no one's going to predict what's going to happen in this war with Hormuz and what happens to oil.
So it's very difficult to try and forecast what's going to happen there.
difficult to try and forecast what's going to happen there. But I just like to look at charts
and look at the price of oil itself, because from that, you can draw a conclusion of what might
happen just based on the technicals alone. And then from there, get a broader view of the kind
of general macro picture. So, I mean, if I hold up the chart of oil now, I can see that it's had two weekly candle closes above the top Bollinger band, which is very, very, very unusual for any kind of asset, which means the rally is very, very extended and is a technical topping signal.
So to me, that looks like oil might come down, even though I don't know what's going to happen uh with hormuz and everything like
that yeah yeah so i mean so basically looking at that it's like you you have to think that
if oil is going to come down i look at a commodities chart it's got a similar kind of
pattern not as extreme then to me that says that you're going to get disinflation, not necessarily
inflation, like everyone's predicting. And then you couple that with, say, the chart
of TLT, which is for long dated US Treasury bonds. And that looks like it's been basing
out for a very long time. So that to me suggests, in the future, lower inflation potentially if this could reverse,
but then also maybe a slower economy.
The price of gold also looks pretty similar too.
It's kind of dropped below its, I mean, the 20 week moving average held it up the entire
bull run.
And it's closed a weekly candle below that 20 week.
I think it was in March, so early March, and now it's potentially going to close a second
candle below it.
So that also is another sign that like gold looks like it's probably, you know, it can
bounce in the short term, same for oil.
But to me, if I just had to go on technicals alone, and I was purely trading this without
looking at any kind of trying to analyze what's happening
in the economy, just from a news perspective,
I would say that gold's probably also peaked,
even though it could bounce in the short term.
So to me, yeah, the dollar looks like it's reversing,
as you said, nice W pattern on that.
So yeah, I guess I have to be more looking
into long-term US Treasuries right now.
The NASDAQ, S&P 500, they also look a little bit toppy,
very weak, broken some key support levels.
So yeah, I probably lean bearish,
but not necessarily bearish
because I think there's going to be more inflation out of the oil crisis.
Yeah, I will say, certainly the last week or so,
it's been very, very news-driven price action,
just trading futures and NASDAQ for sure,
and some of our groups in our community.
It's been very whipsaw.
Gold just barely hanging on there for sure.
It did bounce a very long wick off the 200 EMA daily there.
Michael, what are your thoughts about this hanging on by Fred
and a Nasdaq just potentially rolling under, really, it looks like?
Thoughts on gold, sorry?
Yeah.
So gold's got a problem
right now which is
kind of started to come to the fore
in late
January and it remains a
problem which is that it's trading
more and this goes for all precious
metals so silver platinum palladium as well
in that it is trading more akin
to a momentum
risk asset than it is a safe haven.
And that's basically because it just became a complete and utter speculative frenzy at
the back end of last year and early this year, with primarily retail just piling in trying
to ride the rally.
Then we obviously had that move lower at the end of January, and then a similar thing coming
in this month. There's other issues for gold as well, though. You know, you got to think
about essentially what you're buying is a lump of shiny metal. It is a non yielding asset.
And we're in a market where yields across DM have gone somewhere between 50 and 100 basis points
higher over the last four weeks, which massively increases the opportunity cost of holding gold over anything else.
Added to which, you've got market participants being forced to try and raise cash
to cover positions elsewhere.
When you need to raise cash, you sell what's in profit.
So you're selling your metal longs in order to fund that.
And the other thing that we're now starting to see evidence of,
we saw this in Turkey, I think we saw it in Poland earlier in the week as well,
is emerging market central banks are actually now tapping their gold reserves to try and prop
up their currencies. Now, one of the big drivers of the bull case for gold over the last three
years has been central bank buying, which is basically structurally underpinning the market.
Well, that works both ways. And if you're now seeing central banks starting to sell their holdings, then that's
obviously going to drive price in the other direction. As for equities, I think Ryan
said quite well earlier on, the kind of general theme has been buy any gap lower on the Monday,
and then just the optimism fades and everyone gets flat into the weekend.
Quite frankly, this is not a market where you want to try and be a hero and, you know, hold a long risk position over the weekend on the vague hope that something positive might happen on Trump's
social account. I think, you know, just the general theme is one where participants are really taking
down their position sizing.
They're really taking down the time that they hold those positions for.
And that just reflects the general sense of caution that we see in the market.
And you kind of expect that that is going to continue and lessen until we see some concrete steps towards a resolution on the geopolitical front.
Michael?
You're there.
Can you hear me?
We can hear you.
Oh, yes.
Thank the Lord.
Hello, everyone.
Oh, dear.
How's it going?
Dare we ask where you are?
Where are you?
Michael, question for you.
I agree with what... Well, you all know where I am, but that's not the point.
Oh, right.
I'm at the Stafford Hotel, maybe.
Someone's got to keep them in...
Keep them funded.
Can you ask him for a better bloody Wi-Fi connection?
Because this is...
I was being referred to as... I was being referred to as little ryan um obviously this is just in yes
comparison to big rhyme big bold ryan um but my question for you michael you're quite uh-oh
none of us heard the question mate it's not even wi-fi it's 5g um but yeah question for you how
long about one fucking g at this point there's a lock on sidelines because of how you know as
you said this whole headline risk at what point does cash go well do you know what we've had no
news for quite significant amount of time we've now got to reinvest uh that is a very
good question actually surprisingly from you um not this week because it's end of month end of
quarter etc um if you think from a calendar basis probably next week's not the one to up risk levels
either because easter and you could probably claim the same for the week after. So yeah, maybe mid-April at a guess is when you start to see people dipping their toe back in
a little bit more. But again, I don't think you're not going to see people doing that in size or in
any sort of significant manner until the geopolitical side of things stabilizes to a degree.
But I do think actually, you know, you've already started to see some tentative signs this week of the market getting a little bit desensitized to
some of the news flow and people starting to come back into the market. Certainly on Tuesday and on
Wednesday yesterday, you did see steadier tones. You did see dips starting to be bought into a
little bit more. so i don't think
we're there yet but we're probably not that far off it i agree with you there um i think this is
a market that hasn't got big money playing around in it at the moment um hence you mentioned it
either you're getting your swings in in stock indices and nasdaq and whatever um because it i
mean it was it was very clear right at the start what was happening.
A lot of cash coming out the market.
A lot of big players saying this is too much risk, too much volatility.
We're just going to pull it.
And you can tell that because when you get these things kicking off,
your first instinct into, look, where's the money flowing?
Is it flowing into the safety of bonds, treasuries?
Is it going gold?
Where's the money going yen?
And when I looked at this, everything was getting sold.
Bonds were getting sold, stocks were getting sold,
gold was getting sold.
That's not your, everyone's running to safety,
that's everyone's running out the market and parking up.
And I don't think, I don't think the real big money
starts coming back in until we get a proper resolution for this. And then
we'll probably get a big blood coming in over a couple of weeks or something.
Yeah, I was just looking at the dollar yen, and that's slowly been creeping up as well.
Mads, I see your hand up there. Love your perspective.
Yeah, just for context, I run a tech investment fund. So I don't invest in the hyperscalers. For instance, I invest
in the younger companies, typically companies that are not necessarily very profitable right now,
but are building something for the future. So right now we are sitting and looking at what is
Optical Connect going to be in data centers next year and next year
and which companies are well positioned for this.
And what we experience from these stocks is that once the perceived volatility of the market goes up,
everybody's flushing these stocks from their portfolios
because they want to reduce these stocks from their portfolios because they want to reduce
the variance in their portfolios and they pick the stuff that is high variance.
That's what people call risk off.
And so our stocks is typically selling out a lot during periods of this.
And it started actually in October. So we've been in a bear market of my type of stocks for like five months, six months,
culminating with this.
So it's really interesting sitting here listening to this debate here, really some good speakers
and but the focus is so short term.
It's like, what do we do next week?
What's going to happen next week, next month, etc.
So my experience from tech stocks is that it's in times like these that tech stocks are really good to buy because they'll be forgotten.
And everybody will know that it's definitely not what you're going to have.
And if you listen to the guys talking to retail investors, they'll say you need quality stocks at times like this.
And just for retail investors listening, tech stocks could fall maybe 30%, 40% from here if something goes south in Iran, because people will just be
selling out the high-variant stocks and be more risk-off.
So that's just for context.
But typically, it's in times like these that it's worth looking at these stocks because
they just become too cheap.
And I think there is one thing we're talking a lot about, uncertainty.
In tech, there is something that is quite certain, and that is the AI transition.
it's going to fold out over the coming years.
It's going to fold out over the coming years.
It's going to be a big driver of stocks and of changing value chains, etc.
So that's something that's certain, just not in the short term.
We don't know what markets will do with these stocks short term.
Yeah. And then another thing I think is certain is that we are in a world where statecraft is really, really important.
So when people are talking oil prices, I think we're going to have two, three different oil prices globally. We're going to have one oil price in the States.
They can take oil off the ground and sell it there.
And then we're going to have one oil price for oil coming out of the Gulf.
It's going to have some sort of attacks, maybe from Iran,
maybe from the United States, policing the Hormuz Straits and the Red Sea.
And so things are going to evolve according to politicians, how they think about things,
how they try to position themselves.
Trump wants cheap oil for U.S US and his allies and expensive oil for
China and their allies. Same thing with rare earth, etc. So I think it's important to think
politics a lot more these days than it was maybe three, four, five years ago.
Yeah, it's certainly definitely an unavoidable topic now,
more than ever.
So it looks like, yeah, if we do crash,
I mean, there's a gap at what, 20,290?
We're going back to 20K maybe?
I'm joking.
That's quite a long ways if we do fall.
So yeah, don't put all your eggs in one basket so soon,
as Michael was pointing out earlier on. And please do give all our, you know, eggs in one basket so soon. As Michael was pointing out earlier on,
and please do give all our speakers a follow, incredible information and guests here today.
Yeah, you know, start looking at what we could start putting, dip your toes in the water a bit
in, you know, Q4, sorry, Q3 in April. I'm thinking four because of April. I don't know why I said
Q4 already. But I do have to read a very, very quick disclaimer. Nothing we share in this space is professional financial advice shares, ETPs and from leveraged shares. And to obtain a funds,
prospectus and key information document, please visit their website at incomeshares.com
or any fund for that matter. And a funds, prospectus, key information document should
be read very carefully before investing. And having said that, yes, tech is more of the
longer term. I do see that vision,
especially with AI shifting, and especially now with both oil and technology industries,
both shifting at the same time. It's just a lot of friction there. And I would say,
I want to come back to equities in a moment. I want to turn to the crypto side. I want to see
what's happening in Bitcoin, because I see it
also dipping just under the 70k as well. Gardenzia, what are you looking at for crypto and any
projects, anything exciting you're looking at in particular? Yeah, definitely. There is always
something new in the crypto sector. So but let me let me step back and say a little bit more about what is happening
worldwide, because I'm trying to understand as well. So the actual conflict is something
that we should give more attention. I'm saying because um there are some researchers and there are some some
economic people saying that if the the war continues for like five months by starting by now
if the if the work continues for five more months the italian gdp is going to be at zero but if the war if the war continues for 12 months the italian gdp
will be negative and we and we will be in a recession not only easily but the entire planet
will be in recession and i want to say something regarding the uh huz. It's not only the Hormuz, the big problem,
is also the oil and gas refineries around Arabia that have been attacked.
And the production and the contracts are being deleted
because many oil refineries will not be able to deliver the contracts.
And myself, I expect this to continue for a few years and we will see massive oil
shocks around the economies and eventually we will might fall in a recession. Also, there is a video that came out a few days ago from Larry Fink.
And he also is saying that the oil price will stay above $100 from $100 and $150.
The recession is going to happen at any time.
Getting back to your question and getting back to my field about the crypto,
in terms of the price of the crypto assets,
we know very well that there is a universal law
that says that the crypto market is 100% correlated to the real economy and to the real
liquidity. So we don't produce wealth. Crypto does not produce wealth. It just transforms it.
So we are totally correlated what happens to the real economy. The real economy is looking bad, and obviously, crypto is looking bad.
But from the adoption and technological side,
the crypto space is like
the most fast-facing ecosystem environment ever.
Right now, everyone on the planet,
from the small companies to the big corporates, they are all adopting infrastructure that will allow them to create stable coins or allow them to tokenize instruments assets like financial assets bonds
stock Deposit you you can now
Go to the bank deposit. I don't know a hundred thousand dollars and that a hundred thousand dollars can be tokenized and
Be used on on some blockchains
So from the point of view of adoption,
crypto web 3 is like one of the fastest things happening right now. From the price point of view,
we are connected with the real economy and the real economy right now is looking very bad. Thank you.
Thank you for sharing. Yeah, the economies are definitely looking a little bit dire right now it's looking very bad thank you thank you for sharing yeah the economies are
definitely looking a little bit dire right now cam are you also looking at anything interesting
in crypto i saw something about tau i'm a big fan of tau myself yeah i think in the crypto
it says i'm muted but can you hear me i can hear you awesome right it's my ex bugging up um yeah i think in when risk
comes off the table you tend to have a flight to safety of some sort of assets because you have
lots of these altcoins bleeding and bleeding um and tau seems to be setting up quite nicely
we've seen a lot of people selling the top 10 in order to get an advantage into getting into Tau.
BTC, touching on that a little bit.
It's performed quite well since the war started.
And obviously, I'm trying to say this in there with respect.
It has performed quite well, especially when you correlate it to whether it be gold or silver or any of the other precious metals,
its performance has been fairly well.
It's not looking like it wants to break out in either direction just yet.
But again, if you take a look at who's buying it, who's selling it at the moment,
we're not seeing a lot of activity coming from the Bitcoin treasury corporations.
We've seen Mara, which is Marathon, the Bitcoin miner,
announced that they've sold a billion dollars worth of Bitcoin.
And that's that whilst we've been on the call today in order to raise a cash position.
So obviously, the Bitcoin miner is going to be focused on energy and that's going to be one of their key concerns going forward.
Bitcoin mining, they're going to need to sell BTC at some point
especially as costs start to go higher for themselves and that could cause a
little bit of a minor capitulation which typically tends to drag the price of
BTC down but that's if we get to it I know we're not there at the moment but
yeah in terms of risk and where BTC is facing in terms of sentiment, it's very, very sideways.
And over the weekend when traditional markets are shut, it's extremely chubby.
And it makes no surprise that people as a price sensor into the weekend are wanting to take off that risk at the table.
And weekend trading to BTC has not been in one direction.
It typically picks a side and then
chops out on the Monday morning and reverses that entire move yeah so this is a few different
trends I've spotted over the last few weeks with BTC and in terms of predicting the future
I'm gonna bow out of that one I see lots of hands going on. Yes, I do see a lot of hands. We'll go with Gardenzio first, then Mads, and then we'll come back to Forex Flow.
Yeah, thank you. I just want to get back to Tao because it's a quite straight point.
Basically, Tao Bitensor has a very similar model like Bitcoin when we talk about supply.
So they have recently had their halving.
So this helped the price to go up.
So actually, like Bitcoin, also Tau has the halving identical.
So this helped to push the price up. Secondly, we have to remember that Tau,
BitTensor, is one of the most important decentralized alternative solution respected respectively from large language models like OpenAI or Claude, how is the...
Anthropic, yeah.
Anthropic, yeah, thank you.
So, Bitensor is the only fully decentralized AI model and is the most respected actually so this is why people is
choosing Tau is buying Tau this is the only alternative that we have to set to centralize
large language models and is the tensor I hope I can give you more info yes that that paints a
very clear image I am a big fan of tech myself.
I use AI heavily as well.
Mads, I know you love your tech
and especially in the AI space.
We'd love to hear your thoughts.
Yeah, just on crypto assets,
I think Clarity Act,
the progress of Clarity Act
in the United States is important here.
There was a... in the United States is important here.
There was a...
The U.S. government wants U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins
to be a large part of the payment systems in the world.
And thus, I think Bitcoin will have some competition because people around the world will have
the ability to own dollar backed stablecoins once we get there.
But we're waiting for the Clarity Act to come out, the law that will regulate the blockchain
the blockchain ecosystem in the United States.
ecosystem in the United States.
And that was a disappointment for people looking for stable coins
to emerge as something big where the banks have been able to block that.
able to block that, for instance, Circle can share the revenues they gain from the T-Builds
they own to the user.
And I think that created a sort of a setback in the blockchain space in general that clarity might not be so friendly as one had hoped for,
seen from a crypto industry stance.
Bravo, bravo.
You have highlighted one of the most important discussions right now
in the Genius Act, because there is actually one of the most important fights between stablecom providers exchanges
versus the banks.
So versus the biggest authority
of the modern capitalism.
So we are fighting the banks.
So, I mean, in America,
they are fighting the banks
because the banks,
they don't want that other people,
other infrastructures to offer yield because they are afraid of cash outflows.
Yeah, sorry for interrupting.
No, it's a great perspective and it just goes to show you that money itself is changing in behavior as well.
Forex, I would definitely love to hear your perspective
because i know you're involved heavily in forex yeah it's just more a question about the you know
bitcoin moving on the fundamentals um which which sounds a bit strange to me because i don't suspect
we've got many um the average coin holders bitcoin holders watching US business inventories and trading around it like that.
Is cryptos, is Bitcoin and the moves there more of a wealth indicator?
If people are feeling good about themselves, they're more likely to buy.
If they're not, if they're feeling financial strain, they're more likely to sell.
So is it more a case of that's what we see in the moves rather than directly following the fundamentals?
Is it more a case of that's what we see in the moves rather than directly following the fundamentals?
Yeah, certainly a little bit more diversity in the portfolio there with crypto in the mix.
Jonathan, I know you love a bit of crypto as well.
Yeah, sure. I mean, I think to answer your question on why Bitcoin, it's probably because of the fact that people buy Bitcoin
when they think that the money supply is going to increase.
So if the market is anticipating a stimulative policy,
basically, from the central banks, they'll tend to buy Bitcoin.
And that's when Bitcoin's had its biggest rally.
So, you know, it is a long-term inflation hedge, obviously, but its biggest rallies have always
been when people think, or there is, stimulation in the market. And interestingly, looking at
Bitcoin since, so it obviously hit that low of 60k about a month ago, I think, maybe a bit more.
60K about a month ago, I think, maybe a bit more. Since then, it's rallied quite nicely. And actually,
since the 28th of February, it's up about 5%, which isn't much, but that's the time since we
had the unfortunate strikes on Iran. But Ethereum's up 7.8%, looking at my chart now.
The S&P 500 is down 5%, gold's down 16%.
So obviously gold, I agree with what we've said earlier.
I can't remember which speaker said.
Gold is down because yes, it's a safe haven,
but it's run too far ahead of itself.
So people, you know, it's turned into a speculative asset.
Same with silver and what looks like oil at the moment.
But if you look at crypto, Bitcoin and Ethereum particularly,
that's what my focus is on,
you know, they've come down a lot, a long way.
It hasn't hit the usual bear market lows
of whatever we get to in past bear markets
where we've reached 80% drawdowns.
But I don't think that's a reason
to not be bullish on crypto right now,
because as the asset gets bigger, as Bitcoin gets bigger, its volatility decreases.
So, you know, the gains are smaller in percentage terms in each cycle.
And now we're kind of, we're at a very good value zone for Bitcoin and Ethereum, you know, in my view.
So I've personally been allocating to that.
Just trying to think
of anything else on that i mean yeah so if if investors are thinking that if bitcoin suddenly
starts to rally we've got to say to ourselves because right now it's not rallying as someone
said earlier it's in this kind of range it's chopping around um but it looks like maybe it's
it's accumulation phase uh and with crypto it takes a long time to accumulate because it's a smaller asset class.
So you need investors to build their positions gradually.
It's not just going to be bottom.
Maybe it did that in 2020 March.
But that was when we had a massive, you know, oversold crisis and then COVID.
But so my thinking is that if Bitcoin can hang around here
for a longer time, the longer it hangs around
and kind of goes between 60 and 75,
it might wick below 60 again,
but I kind of think we're very close to the lows,
if not the lows already in, and that was the low.
So the longer it accumulates here, it suggests accumulation.
And then if it's gonna rally, why would it rally?
Why would it rally if everyone thinks there's going to be more inflation?
If, you know, with oil and this crisis going on in Hamuz and global geopolitical uncertainty and everything like that.
I mean, this is a stretch, but I would kind of think maybe it has something to do with the private credit issues going on. There are some cracks starting to show with private credit. Bitcoin has no counterparty risk. Traditionally, Bitcoin's
rallied in regional banking crises that we've had. It's not the same thing, but it just kind
of shows cracks in the monetary system. So whenever there's some sort of crack in the monetary system that's visible to the
market, that's when Bitcoin usually does well.
So I mean, I would be holding Bitcoin now, obviously not fully exposed, but I do think
this is where, you know, the diversification benefits can happen with crypto.
I certainly can agree with that
cam i saw your hand up go there for a bit yeah that was kind of touching that with the counterpart
risk aspect you know bitcoin now has you know a lot of proxies to gain advantage to it via
spot etfs across you know across the united states and uk and Europe. So tracking those flows,
you're starting to see a lot of confidence coming back
into BTC's purchasing volumes and net inflows on a daily basis
since the war started.
So potentially that could be it.
If you're trying to look at, well, where is risk on the table
and are people turning to BTC
when they've got a bit of coin in their pocket?
Well then, are they looking
to it for sort of flight to safety now and did also i'm looking at it kind of going well actually
it it seemed as if btc front run the risk uh toward you know toward heading the head of gold
selling off there so there's a few different aspects to look at it i'm interested to see how
this plays out because we've now had these rails
to access BTC, specifically via the ETFs, for a good couple of years now. This is a really
major event happening with the war that's affecting markets across the globe and is a
very massive focal point. How can BTC perform coming out of this? It's just something I'm
going to be paying attention to. Instead of to predict the the future uh absolutely just going to be taking notes and
and then comparing this to see well this is what happens this time what happens next time that
there is another event and try to try to try to game sort of uh sort of uh road map to heading
toward the future but this is what we're seeing btc kind of leading
that risk off the table um risk on the table and then yeah it's yeah yeah i really i really want
to say something that's really positive but i think it's very challenging i think it's challenging
times and it's totally okay to understand obviously we with constructive criticism and as to reasons why
price action is moving like this. There's no other way to avoid it, unfortunately. It's
a very uncomfortable conversation. So what we'll do is we'll have one last bit about
crypto and then we'll move back into equities. Cookie, welcome onto the stage. How are you,
my friend? Hey, hey, sir, I'm late, as always.
I was going to just hopefully shoehorn into the crypto discussion.
My view on BTC is BTC is the ultimate DCA asset.
If you've got conviction in it, particularly just ensuring that you use these periods like we have now,
just the DCA consistently, I think you always come out well on that trade. It's very different to a lot of other cryptocurrencies in that regard like the
longer term view and the scale of it means that DCA particularly at these levels I think is
it looks like it will be a good play when you look back upon it. I just don't think you lose on that trade longer term.
But it is a longer hold asset and it doesn't necessarily matter
to the other cryptos that we see.
A lot of stuff is more short-term within the crypto space.
BTC stands out because it is a longer hold.
And there are a couple of other cryptos that do sit within that bracket,
but BTC is most definitely the largest front runner within within the group
yeah i agree on that i do have a couple of friends who's actually been dollar cost averaging
the coinbase does that auto invests every week or whatever frequency you want to program it to
and uh it's definitely been through all the crashes including when it was down falling
and uh they're still up over a good, you know,
a couple million on that portfolio by just doing a couple hundred every week, if you're able to.
So it does work, so the cost averaging over the long term, of course, that comes with a very high
risk appetite. We'd love to come back to equities a bit. And we're joined on stage with two amazing,
incredible people. Wiseau, I'm going to start off with you and then we'll come to Monitiv.
Hi there.
Yeah, my perspective is a little bit different to others.
I don't really look at individuals, but over the last few weeks,
I would probably say I've spoken to about 14 different fund managers.
They're primarily pension fund managers, discretionary fund managers
for model portfolios.
There still really is very much a bearish sentiment along them.
They're not looking to increase their exposure to the US equities.
They're not looking to go back, and several of them are still looking to decrease that exposure to US equities,
saying they're still overvalued for what they are
and looking for opportunities elsewhere. Now, the biggest aspect from the pension funds
is they're primarily momentum driven, I would say, more than anything. Once they start shifting
their allocations to those European equities, to those even certain amount to Asian equities as well. They're continuing that momentum
forward rather than looking to switch back into US equities. So I would be interested in how that
would change. They're very slow to react to some of them with only with quarterly allocation changes.
Those that are a little bit more dynamic and reactive following the initial Iran invasion.
Well, won't quite call it invasion.
What does Michael call it?
Kinetic activity.
There has been certain changes to allocations there with people also looking to move, keep in that commodities areas maybe reducing their their gold allocation and
other metals and so it'd be interesting to see how that plays out longer term um as i say these
are funds that generally are slow to move uh but once they're in that kind of direction it's it's
slow to change back into that there is very much a shift that's happened over the past 12, 18 months really
where that move away from US equities has happened. I'd love to know what other people's thoughts are
on how that may impact not just the Nasdaq but also US equities and how also it could benefit.
There's still an awful lot of opportunities within European equities where they are undervalued.
Very interesting question. Alex, what are your thoughts on that?
I think that's an interesting topic. That would be the bullish case for European equities,
that they are undervalued. But in the thing as it is, America is just leading by so far.
So it's hard to really,
it's hard to predict who's going to be the leader
in that situation.
But before the war, the whole talk was about,
are we going to have a soft landing or not?
That was essentially the biggest issue.
And now I guess we don't have really the inflation numbers,
but most likely we're going to have a little bit of a spike there.
And I don't know if we could classify the overall regime as fiscal dominance,
but I think we could classify it as we're drifting towards it.
I like to look at a little shorter term regimes
because that matters more to me.
And in the shorter term, I mean,
we've seen how the market has performed.
Bond is over 2025.
It's been a bit weaker.
Gold has been the better option.
And with inflation numbers probably coming back in higher,
I see no reason for why we shouldn't start looking into gold
or why we shouldn't start considering maybe looking into some crypto positions.
Bitcoin could be seen as a good digital fiscal hedge, right?
So that's kind of what I'm looking at currently.
I think US is usually going to be the safer bet.
And then the risk premium, what's going on there?
And then the risk premium was going on there.
Goldman, for example, they suspect that Hormuz is going to open up by end of April.
At least that's what they're telegraphing.
So that's kind of my look of the situation.
Interesting thesis there. I like that.
Mert, I'll see your hand up then and we'll come back to monitor.
Yeah, talking about stocks and where we are right now, we just had Trump saying
that he doesn't need the Europeans to help in Hormuz and the war is won. And he says, but never forget this important point. So I think that the war is basically won now.
And what we are negotiating is how is the aftermath going to be?
What is going to be Europe's role?
What is going to be the role of the United States?
And how is that going to be the role of the United States and how is that going
to affect trade?
So I think and I hope that we will see Europe and the United States sort of agreeing on
a framework for the future, how it's going to be.
And I think that would be good for Europe and good for United States.
But if we look back at how Europe's business model
has been for many years,
it's been that we have free security
from the United States,
then we have cheap energy from Russia.
And then we have globalization.
We have production in China.
And then we have access to the American market.
And that business model is just gone.
It's not coming back at all.
We are going to either invest heavily in defense or we are going to have to pay for the defense.
That's why I said that we might see a different energy price in Europe
because we pay a defense tax to the states
or whatever they will negotiate together.
And we will also have tariffs in one way or another to access the American market. And we will have to accept going to be a problem for European businesses because
they are, they've grown into this is how you do good business in Europe. And that's just
generalizing a lot. But I think that should be the reason to go for more American stocks
right now, in my opinion.
Very interesting. Yeah, I think it's that outlook on EU trying to be more sovereign. And I see that
in some of the headlines, they're trying to break away from the US protection. And it's like, well,
then you need to start developing your own as well in the defense side. Speaking of defense,
I know Monitif knows a lot about that stuff and you love also alternating your diversity
into outside of US.
So love your perspective on what you see
in this sort of Q3ing
and sort of your 2026 outlook as well.
I know it's going to be a bit challenging
as well to predict.
Well, I'll take the last one first
because I was mentally thinking about this
as you guys are speaking so uh look this this taco market that we have now is going to keep working
that way for a while right i mean whatever happens with this uh you know um boots on the ground or
whatever the heck this is you know who knows what it is outside of you know one or on the ground or whatever the heck this is, you know, who knows what it is outside of, you know, one or two people in the cabinet.
So even if we have a, you know, a pullback in oil prices, what worries me is this.
We have not yet taken stock of the damage.
But by different reports, anywhere from 20% to 40% of the capacity is likely to be offline for different lengths of time based on who you ask.
The longest could be quite a bit, about 25% of Qatar's LNG capacity could be offline for years.
So we've not taken into account the cost of any of those, the time
involved. So I think whatever relief we get from a resolution of Iran conflict, and I've no idea
what that even means right now, it's going to be a short-lived relief because we're going to have a
new higher base for oil. Those days of $60 oil, I think, are long
gone. So we don't know what that base is. Is that $70? Is that $80? Or is that above? I don't know.
I think we need to know what the damage is and what we have left to work with before we can
answer that question. So that's my first worry. So assuming we find out what that is, then US markets have been led by AI and capex spending.
So capex spending is directly a function of the ability of US companies to be able to
generate enough cash flow and then take on enough debt
based on their you know the quality of their balance sheet to continue to invest that into
into you know in into new data center capacity and whatever else that they do now if you start
taxing the consumer balance sheet by by increasing energy prices and you know and you know everything else
that depends on energy food and everything else then you're gonna have you know consumer weakness
potentially starting to creep in which we've seen from covid time can dramatically reduce for
example the profitability of a company like Google
or Meta.
I'm just taking two examples, nothing specific.
And that in turn will translate to how much they are willing to put up on CapEx, which
in turn translates to lower, potentially large, lower business for a whole host of
suppliers, including outside of tech
sector right for all the way from your electrical so some of these companies are selling at multiples
even larger than uh than tech even larger than you know some of the fastest growing tech right
I mean look at the multiples of GEV or some of these providers to utility.
They're all in high 30s, 40s multiples.
Those are not sustainable if the CapEx story changes.
So those are the things that keep me awake, is we are still far from understanding the
cost of the war to date, right, in terms of lost capacity, in terms of lost,
what was the word I'm looking for?
In terms of, you know, a much increased fear
in terms of, you know, lost confidence, right? So for example,
another one that I worry about is there's a lot of sovereign money that's coming into AI
and, and, and to, you know, technology CapEx. You know, some of that, much of that sovereign money
is coming from the GCC. And they are going to have to you know mend their own you know industry
um you know beef up their defenses rather quickly because none of them is going to think that you
know Iran's done it's done nothing will happen that will you know damage it they all know that
U.S. is going to walk away at some point in time and they are going to be left to their own devices so
there's going to be massive spend in defense and you know um and and those things tend to pull money away from from from tech capex that that they have been doing the other part is data centers
are now seen as you know a soft target and a very expensive target.
If you have a 100 megawatt data center,
that's the cost of a major defense installation
or half the cost of an aircraft carrier for that matter.
And it's an undefended target for most parts.
So maybe those decisions have to change.
They cannot
locate them in GCC or at least not in parts of GCC that are too close to, you know, to drone
target. So those are the things that keep me worried. I mean, there's a lot of things that
could go very wrong in the AI boom, at least in the medium term, right? We might recover it all back, all said and done in a couple of years.
But I see more downside worries, risks than upside opportunities at this time.
And I'm not this jaded normally, but we are a week from the start of the pre-announcement season.
We are three weeks from earnings.
And, you know, there's a lot that could start piling on the market in terms of negative news.
And the first thing I want to track is not CapEx guide, but CapEx spendpex spend right are they actually spending what they're
saying are they pulling back but giving you know different reasons for it and they could give a lot
of reasons because much of that could be true but the first sign we are going to see that there's a
problem is quarter after quarter of actual capex spend trailing the capex guide.
And if we see that, then that's a real sign that, you know,
tech companies are pulling back.
Anyway, I don't mean to be negative,
but these are just things that I worry about openly.
No, I think that's a very fair point.
And good things to actually think about from a risk perspective
is very important to consider all these facts as well.
Mads, I know you are definitely well-aversed in this.
Yeah, I'm not disagreeing here.
I just wanted to stress another thing,
and that is that AI is also politics.
So you could see a global recession
and you could see a lot of issues,
but you could also see AI power forward
because you have the government of United States
really wanting to catch up
and to get to AGI before China
and get to a functioning quantum computer before China.
This is an arms race.
And once you think of yourself as being at war, then the mechanisms about economy changes
a little bit.
The central bank is no longer just only focusing on how inflation is going to be
and how interest rates is going to be long-term,
but they're also focusing on creating liquidity
for building weapons,
and weapons will be data centers. So I think you need to factor
that in that it doesn't necessarily have to be the economy that determines how that development
is going to be. Then there's a whole discussion on ROI, on data centers. And I think the All In podcast
had a good interview with Jenshun Wang
where he sort of explains it
and it's a longer discussion.
I won't go into that now.
And then there is the discussion
about the weapons industry.
And things also change
about weapons industries
when you're in war.
Because you don't buy a screw for $2 when you're at war,
then you want to buy it for one cent.
And the state will tell the industry to produce it for one cent.
So things change.
It's not purely economics anymore when you're at war.
And I think that's something that some people are overseeing or not paying attention to,
that the United States feels they're in a Cold War with China, and that changes a lot of things.
Yeah, I think those are very valid points there, Jonathan.
So your hand up there.
Yeah, I think those are very valid points there, Jonathan. See your hand up there.
Yeah, thanks.
Just one thing I think we probably haven't touched on too much is the long-term impact of AI on the economy and what it might do.
So, I mean, just thinking about it in terms of that,
you know, AI is likely to cause more unemployment,
maybe not forever, but at some point,
there is gonna be quite a lot of job losses from AI,
as machines replace a lot of jobs.
It's also very likely to make things much cheaper
in the future to produce, because intelligence,
it will be more abundant and things will be easier
to manufacture, and I think it'll be disinflationary
or even deflationary over the
long run and there is a scenario where that can outweigh any of the inflationary forces that that
that we see now for example oil so that's why I am at the moment leaning more into long duration
long duration bonds I think they've down heavily
since 2020, whereas everything else is up heavily. Bitcoin I do also like as a long duration
investment since it's basically a function of liquidity and money supply. And I think that
the money supply, if we have the scenario, I mean, obviously this is speculative, we don't know what
will happen, but if we have a scenario where we have some sort of credit shock, we also have
rising unemployment because of AI, we also have AI, you know, potentially making things
cheaper in the long run, we do have a scenario where the money supply keeps increasing gradually
over time, even though it's obviously been a lot of tightening.
So in that case, if you have a kind of AI-led recession, maybe there's a shock in price
in the shorter term, but I think long duration, there's definitely a case to be made for it.
And that's probably what explains what's going on with the chart of TLT right now, since
it's been accumulating for such a long time, while we have all of these inflationary kind of issues. Yeah.
Some fantastic points there. I want to give everyone, please do give them a follow.
Fantastic stuff discussed here today. And last thing but not least, we all have to wrap up today
is Joe, what are your thoughts going into the rest of 2026?
Yeah, I'll try to keep it concise.
A lot of great points brought up.
One thing that I've been thinking about, I haven't heard much of it,
is that we keep on talking about the Strait of Hormuz and relating it to energy,
which is absolutely correct.
But oil wasn't the only thing that went through that strait.
A lot of fertilizer went through it.
I forget the name, the specific name of the fertilizer, but it's very important.
It's used dramatically around small countries in Asia, countries in Africa.
That could be a huge problem leading into the back half of the year, especially now because it's planting season.
It's going to be coming into planting season.
A country like America or developed European countries and China and stuff like that might
be a bit more shielded from it.
But it could be a huge issue later on.
One thing, too, I don't want to sound like a doomer.
I am long.
But one thing with the conflict, too, is that I think that there's still a lot of risk associated
with it.
Iran's demonstrated that they could hit Israel's desalination plants if they so pleased.
They executed strikes in Damone, which is where Israel's desalination plants are, and that's about 50% of Israel's water.
And so if that were to happen, that would not be good.
Again, I don't want to be a doomer. I don't want a fearmonger,
but that's just a risk that I think is apparent here. In the sense of what I look at in terms of
quantitative strategy on the higher frequency side, it seems like people are consolidating.
It's not time to be a hero and make something new right now it's time to research
always but in terms of where they're actually deploying capital if there's a strong correlation
between an alternative data set or just something that they have that's proven and continue to work
in this environment um you know water the flowers cut the weeds it doesn't seem like
it doesn't seem like um it's the time to deploy new ideas currently.
Of course, always researching.
But you see the VIX at 27, hedging and insurance still on high demand.
In terms of equities for the back half of the year,
focusing on things that, regardless of what happens to the headline,
could be fine, like defense names, right?
The pullback that we've had from Heise and Lockheed Martin and Palantir
and names like that, I call it a moot point in terms of when this conflict
does die down, Lockheed still makes money, Palantir still makes money,
space exploration becomes the new trend, I think, to then replace this
in a company like Lockheed, like Northrop.
Lockheed is actually the biggest contractor on NASA's Orion space
program. And there's a ton of companies associated with that, but they're the largest one. And
anything that just has continued to work, we've spoken about utilities, cable companies on here,
a bunch. Prismarine, I believe, is a popular one. And it's just been on a tear. It doesn't even look
like we're in a conflict if you look at that chart um things
that are working and have been resilient i think will continue to be and anything that's been
fragile i think will become more fragile it's like okay great this thing may be happened and
what will happen will continue to happen like thanks for the top tier statistics but um that's
that's my perspective i love that Different angle there for you guys.
We've discussed a lot of names today, actually,
and a bit of portfolio diversity as well with crypto.
I want to thank everyone's time here today.
Alex, do you have any last remarks for us?
Well, it was an interesting conversation.
I don't know.
I feel like I shared everything I wanted to share about the topic.
But yeah, this is our last WolfEU show and it's been a whole lot of fun.
And I hope we're going to do new cool projects moving forward.
I know we have some things in the back burner, don't we?
Yeah, there'll be some exciting stuff going on.
Certainly do give all the accounts a follow there if you want to follow on to whatever you want. things in the back burner don't we yeah there'll be some exciting stuff going on um certainly do
give all the accounts a follow there if you want to follow on to whatever projects everyone's
working on jonathan uh it's been a pleasure having you on do you have any sort of last remarks from
yourself um yeah i mean obviously thanks everyone we can't all predict the future but uh
yeah i think this was a very interesting conversation.
A lot of different views expressed.
And I just want to thank everyone.
Yeah.
And if you want to check out some of the other writing that I do
and some of the products that we have, you can look at IncomeShares.com.
Absolutely.
Jonathan produces a lot of great articles there for you guys.
Very lots of in-depth information for you guys.
So do check that out.
I want to thank everyone again.
And for all your support in the last couple of months for WolfEU,
who knows, we might come back.
We're just taking a pause really for a little bit.
And yeah, so don't put your eggs
all in one basket, guys.
Just all I have to say.
We just can't predict the future.
So I would say
keep some dry powder on the table.
Not the other kind,
but you know what I mean.
Have a great day, guys.
And thank you all for coming
and I hope to speak to you all very soon.
Thanks.
Have a good one, everybody.
Thanks, everyone.
Cheers.
Thank you, Eva, for hosting this.
