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Bitcoin Broke Out Before the Fed Decision? | Market Check
Recorded: March 18, 2026 Duration: 1:09:41Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by BB.
There is no second best live YouTube stream to talk about the markets.
Welcome back, guys.
Happy Wednesday.
Happy FOMC Day to those who celebrate.
Is this going to be another one of those days where we just don't want to pay attention?
Or is it actually worth paying attention to FOMC
today? We'll discuss that and much, much more on today's episode. But first, I'm Snorlax. You guys
also know me as Tommy, joined by Tucker and of course, Max. Going to have a great show for you
all today. But before we can start talking, not just about FOMC, because that's not why you guys
are here. Before we can talk about all risk assets,
the implications of today, and really everything else that's piquing our interest at the moment,
I'm going to need you guys to hit the like button. Now, the last time we were live on Monday,
we were slacking a little bit. And I'll cut you guys some slack because it's a Monday. I'm usually very tired on Mondays too, but it's Wednesday today.
Let's run up the like button.
Otherwise, we might be looking at farmland futures,
and I can't promise that you're going to enjoy that.
But I can promise you that those charts look bullish.
So I guess it's kind of like you get to make your decision.
But we appreciate it when you guys hit the like button, as always.
Help us continue to improve our channel's outreach and reach more and more people. uh, help us, uh, continue to, uh, improve our,
our channels outreach and,
and reach more and more people.
Oh my God,
Tucker.
Tucker.
What,
what?
Sorry.
I'm not the one controlling the chart this morning.
I didn't want to cut off Tommy,
but dude,
I need you to just like explain what you,
what you're doing right now.
That's,
that's my explanation, bro.
I'm having a panic attack.
I don't know what to do.
Dude, it's like that family guy meme where he's like,
who the fuck starts a conversation like that?
Just a fractal show.
Who starts a show like that?
I mean, come on.
It's insane.
Yeah. Anyway. Sorry's insane. Yeah.
Anyway.
Sorry, sorry.
Anyway, sorry about that, guys.
We're a little ahead of ourselves there.
Anyway, we have...
Hang on.
I'm so sorry, Tommy.
I need to get to the bottom of this really quickly.
Tucker, are you filling out a form or what's happening?
Is this a form or no?
No, it's not a form.
I could fill out a form, but
you know,
my form, I mean,
this was really the form that I wanted to
fill out, and we didn't quite
get there, which is unfortunate,
but I had to fill out
another form and do something like that.
You know, but...
You like 4-4 as your TP?
Oh, that's pretty arbitrary. Let's say 4-4 as your TP? That's pretty arbitrary.
Let's say 4-9.
There you go.
Tucker, you're sick, man.
You seriously are.
You're a sick man.
I mean, that's.
Come on here.
We're three minutes into the show and show something like that.
You know, I'd expect that from Tommy, but not you.
You know that Tommy'sy's sick i know i know you've lost him he's gone oh jack yes look at
jack this is panic profile oh god i need to hear from jack a little bit today i need to
i need an explanation for the sell-off man i can't join in and i see
fractals to 25k
fractal chud jackass let me fractal chud
i don't know man i don't know it's literally like no real robini uh
yeah about bitcoin at the bottom man yes
i don't know but i did you know i did want to mention i think fomc today is actually going to
be worth paying attention to for once um usually I'd say you just ignore it, but
I think looking at yield charts kind of seems to me a little bit like we might get some rhetoric
about not cuts. I don't even want to say hikes. Tell me. Do you realize what Trump would do to
Powell if he hiked today like i actually think we would
see like a president like i don't think he's gonna hike today i offer to fight jerome powell
like it would be we might see what's happening man it would be there's no way right that's
impossible i don't think he's gonna hike today today, but at the very least, I think we're going to get some dot plot guidance
that is probably not favorable for rate cuts.
So you're thinking maybe dot plot guidance for the remainder of this year
that suggests maybe we don't have as many cuts coming as we thought?
Yeah.
I mean, the real chart chart like 10 year obviously looks
you know it's coiling but it's really when i look at tlp um tlp looks ready to drop pretty
substantially it's a euthanasia coaster by the looks of it it's me and if tlt is going to maybe
make a big move down like the implications of that are the yields are about to spike. So we have FOMC, they're going to talk about yields. I'm putting two and two together. But I don't really have like an opinion on anything else that's going to happen necessarily. I'm sure there's going to be a lot of the normal, like, not nothing burger rhetoric that comes from Powell.
like not nothing burger rhetoric that comes from Powell.
But yeah,
I kind of get the feeling that we're going to see yields move a bit higher
from here.
This is,
this is Powell's second to last FOMC ever.
I mean,
it's kind of the end of an era,
you know,
he could,
he could,
he could do something really funny on the way out.
That's not the thesis, but he could.
He has a moment here where he can do just the funniest thing.
I don't know what that is.
You know what?
He's a man of legacy.
He doesn't want to be remembered for doing something.
He doesn't want a prank on the way out. What he wants is he saved the economy
in 2022,
2023, and
the next guy's going to come
into office and
mess it all up.
He did a great job.
I don't know if he really wants to rock the boat,
but he has a great opportunity.
He does. He really has a great opportunity. He does.
He really has a good opportunity.
You're right about that.
Yeah.
Yeah.
His last one is April 29th, I believe.
So what would be like the opportunity, Tucker?
Like what if you were Powell and you were like, all right, I'm about,
I'm going to do it.
Like, what would it be?
Surprise 75 basis point hike.
Dude, I was going to say,
he just has his wife buy billions in puts
and then he hikes by 100 bips.
Just go to jail.
His wife buy a bunch of QQQ puts,
hike by 500 bips.
Yeah.
I don't know.
I feel like at the April meeting,
he's at least going to say something
that's kind of interesting.
I don't know.
I don't think we'll get anything crazy today.
Maybe we will, like Tommy said.
I don't know if it'll happen today.
I just think the charts are pointing towards
yields going up.
I mean, this is the 10-year chart, you know?
I mean, it doesn't...
It's kind of hard to get a read, you know?
There hasn't been a ton of signal
in, like, this up, Bitcoin down type of thing,
you know, recently, but...
It's like I look at TLT,
and do I really think TLT is about to go up?
I can draw the Chud Jack bull flag.
I can do it.
It's possible.
And then I can take our target at 8.8%.
All today.
Fuck your fucking options.
Fuck your fucking zero Dte calls fuck the economy
fuck inflation fuck your soft landing i am sick of this shit fuck wall street
fuck you all i'm fucking up
something like that last meeting
that's real that's gonna be jerome pal Something like that. Last meeting.
That's real.
That's going to be Jerome Powell today.
I'm going to need Louis to come on here
and explain how this is possible,
because I know he's a classical chartist enjoyer.
I think this is going to happen,
but you're going to first get a breakdown to like 3%.
And then you're going to see like 5.5 to 6.
Yeah.
That'd be crazy.
That would be crazy.
One of those.
I mean, this is insanity.
Jesus.
I don't know.
We just have a super clear trend shift high time frame.
Yeah. have a super clear trend shift high time frame you know yeah
so but it does look like it it might need like it kind of looks like the s p 500 before it kind of like and then that'll probably end up happening but what situation do you have in mind with spx
just this kind of like most recent little rounding top type thing.
I see.
I see.
You know.
Not identical, but just how I kind of ran out of steam a little bit.
Also, what is going to happen here, man?
This is
quite
interesting. It needs to bounce
here in a big way.
What is this? That looks very daunting.
I don't know if I've ever seen a U-turn
that was so perfect.
I know.
It looks like an artist, like a calligraphy
artist, just stenciled
it on there perfectly you know yeah
the artist is the president of the united states yeah for yoldistan yeah
that's crazy
it is getting pretty funny how rounded it's becoming and the downtrend too it's just like by the way
one interesting thought or or information regarding paul do you guys know that he stopped wearing
different uh ties of color he used to have like blue and red and purple. And whenever he would read the red one, market would be new king.
And whenever the blue one, market would be going up.
So instead, he noticed that and he started to just wear a purple tie at all meetings.
Smart man.
But imagine if he comes in with red today.
God, dude.
I mean, he does have the opportunity.
I'm not going to predict that he's going to try to deliberately screw over Trump.
But if that ended up being the outcome, I wouldn't be surprised either.
I still say that there is so much recency bias
regarding Paul thinking he had a good term.
He didn't.
I think he will want to keep, like, he got very lucky
by people persevering him as, like, really good chair.
And I think he will want to keep it.
So I don't think he's going to do anything stupid
or out of the ordinary.
I don't think he's going to cut nor stupid or out of the ordinary. I don't think he's going to cut nor hike anymore.
Last two meetings in front of him, he'll want to play the school
and just put it in his CV and be like, yeah, I did a great job.
Play it cool.
Just tap it in.
Tap, tap, tap it in.
That's all he's got to do.
But it reminds me of the eternal question.
Will you have peace or will you have war?
From The Hobbit.
Yes.
I will have war.
epic series
Epic series.
Cersei Lannister
I choose violence
I choose violence
yeah
god that just brought me back to like
a great era
of my life watching Game of Thrones
same dude I mean did you guys watch the
most recent uh yeah the night of the seven i've been trying to watch it my wife keeps falling
asleep so the answer is no i had literally the same thing so i just was like you know what i'm
just gonna watch it straight everything Everything. Yes, bro.
When they fall asleep, you just keep watching it.
And when they wake up, you just tell them to catch up.
I've got a lot of times.
Oh, times.
The amount of times I've been watching a show with my wife
and she's like three minutes in just passed out.
Oh, my God.
Yeah.
Like barely make it, you know. i don't know why it's like their
their attention span and they're the one that suggested it you know
they were they were the ones that suggested it the the craziest part is that like
as far as I know, Tomé, your wife is not pregnant.
as far as i know to me your wife is not pregnant
But like I can understand it was mine, right?
I can understand it was mine because she's like very tired,
not feeling well, you know, not having enough sleep.
So I'm like, okay, I get it.
But it's insane to me how it's literally the same across the globe.
It doesn't matter if he's from Czech or from US.
They all fall asleep watching a show.
Without fail.
Look at this.
And I went outside in the living room and was watching Real Madrid highlights.
Yes.
He made this.
Can you imagine if he came out
wearing this? If he came out with the
Novogratz?
He would go to zero like...
Did you guys
read the Vanity Fair article yesterday?
I didn't read it. I just saw
that picture. No, I didn't read it.
Oh, it was so bad.
Mike Novogratz was the
most normal person in that in that feature if that tells
you anything the billionaire with the with a doomsday bunker was the most normal person in that
article dude they all have bunkers man all of them i remember the good old days of of game of thrones
tucker i remember how we like i i really enjoyed that it wasn't released like all at once i enjoyed
that one week break and then everyone was discussing like what happened what was going to happen it was fun yeah we have
a group chat from high school that still exists that it was like a game of thrones thing and like
we would all get together every week and watch it and we'd turn our phones off and put them in the
other room you know and like lock in yeah yeah and the day when it came out, like not see the spoilers or anywhere on YouTube when you watched something or read something.
Yeah, it was a good time.
And it was like if somebody missed it, you know, like it was like we will talk about it.
You need to stay away from us.
Like we will talk.
Yeah, exactly. about it you need to stay away from us like we will talk you know yeah it's like exactly i went
to the uh peaky blinders movie actually uh like two days ago great what was it good yeah i enjoyed
it but they are like very specific about like in the beginning that like don't spoil it for
other people before it goes to Netflix.
Oh, is it not?
It's only in theaters right now or something?
Yeah.
It really gave me, like,
it gave me vibes of the first season of Peaky Blinders, man.
The best.
The best.
So while I really like the show,
one thing I don't like is that and i think it's like problem of the entire industry is that there's only six episodes six freaking episodes and they
are only 30 minutes long and then you gotta wait like probably the next two years before the next
one and it's just like like i really enjoyed it
but you know back in the day you would you would get six episodes and then you know or back in the
day would get 20 episodes a season and you would get it every single season and it would be an hour
long and now you're getting like yeah it's just too little
like it's really good but it's too little
you know this needs to be released
if this is going to be the
format it needs to get released
twice a year the six episodes
yeah is it like
I don't know what it would
be because like it feels like the industry has gotten lazy, right? Because they're just making less, less, you know, volume of content, right? In that season you mentioned, but they shouldn't be because they're all about to be replaced, you know? So I don't know what they're thinking over there but indeed yeah no
i think this is a great example like imagine someone using ai to generate uh so much of content
from game of thrones like if it's actually good obviously you know if it's if it's crap then you
know get out of here but i know i feel I feel like you could make four more episodes and make it a 10-episode season with AI in, like, a week or two.
Yeah.
I cannot wait for it because there is so much content
from, like, Game of Thrones, from, like, you know,
The Witcher and Lord of the Rings, like, that whole world.
I can totally imagine being a happy consumer of all that content.
But there is.
Yeah, if you gave the AI all the like,
had it look up all the lore, you know,
and were like, make three more episodes or whatever.
Make no mistakes.
Make a perfectly lore accurate rendition of a sequel,
but make no mistakes.
Make no mistakes, yeah.
But I don't think that AI will be like, or it will be making whole movies,
but I don't think they'll be that enjoyable.
But I think like movie makers will be using AI to be more efficient,
to be more quick in delivering these.
And because when you think about how the film industry has moved it like you know back in the day
it used to or like you know you started with like black and white screens and then it was
colorful and then sound and and so forth uh very sound was first but as a matter but
like then you started to use uh figures at the
background right um and then you started to use cgi right that that was like uh you know suddenly
you started to use just a green screen behind and that got really good and it made it more efficient
uh and i think that's going to be the way AI, they're going to use it for lots of stuff
to make it quicker and cheaper. But I don't think that movie makers will simply replace it.
I mean, I don't think it's going to be the same thing either with uh writers and i would assume that that would be like the first thing
that you would think ai is going to replace them right like the writers but when you think about
it what ai does is that it takes the sum of the average pretty much and when you read most of the
stuff from ai it's pretty mediocre and so and so you cannot be creating a content that the AI is going to take and then create a
mediocre content of that and then mediocre content of that, right?
I think what you will still need is...
I think you'll still need good writers, but they might use AI for inspiration, right?
Like, hey, give me an idea of a name uh maybe i don't know
but i suppose i am really like thinking out uh you know don't take me for a word i'm just thinking
out loud but yeah i think there will be some part of the industry where it really produces
like a second screen content like Netflix is about to do for all the tiktokers right
you'll be scrolling your phone and having a movie at the background from AI probably like that but
then I think there will be the part of the audience that requires or demands quality content.
And I think writers and movie makers will still be needed for that.
And I think it could help them deliver quality.
Because you can't just have anyone writing a script and putting it in AI and churning out content.
It's not good enough yet. have anyone writing a script and putting it in ai and churning out content you know like it it's
still it's not good enough yet to where you can like at some point you'll probably be able to
get away with that but like it's not good enough to like actually make it good if your input is not
good here's the thing man is i hate reading ai stuff I hate listening to AI stuff.
I can smell it from a mile away.
Like if somebody sends me some like write up and I get a whiff that AI did it,
I stop reading immediately.
Like I,
I hate it.
It drives me crazy.
I'd rather have short,
sloppy,
concise, but from a human brain
than perfectly articulated and with so much detail from AI.
I think AI is great for coding and stuff like that.
That, I don't care if it comes from a human or not.
I just want it to work.
But communication, don't you dare communicate with me through AI.
Don't you dare.
Don't you dare. I hate it, don't you dare don't you dare i hate it man it drives me
nuts i don't i don't think ai is gonna replace they will try i don't think it will work i think
that they're gonna try to replace like humans and script writing and all this stuff and it's gonna
just people are gonna feel it man that There is something innate about human communication.
And films and TV shows is a form of communication.
It's a signal, right?
You're communicating, not directly with that person.
You're watching it, but it's a form of communicating a message.
If it's coming from AI, people are going to sniff it out from a mile away.
It's going to feel off. It's not going to work. They are going to sniff it out from a mile away. It's going to feel off.
It's not going to work.
They're going to reject it.
Okay?
They're going to reject it.
I think they're going to try.
I think it's going to fail.
Then they're going to go back to humans.
I'm telling you.
Intelligence is cheap.
Like, this stuff is cheap now, man.
Like, you can spend 200 bucks a month and like
have access to everything known to man like in your pocket intelligence is very cheap
what is not cheap is like human emotion personality all of the kind of intangible things
right that is not cheap that's actually very. That's going to become in high demand.
And that's why we're always going to be on here, right? Like you guys would rather listen to us
yap and talk and laugh and have fun than just like go on Claude and be like, hey, like talk to me
about the market. Like you don't want to do that. There's voice commands on Claude and ChatGPT.
There's a reason you're on here hanging out with us because you
want that human connection at the end of the day you know that's the difference
i think so i i was thinking about it and like i can imagine a restaurant that's totally driven by
like a robot ai right it delivers the drinks and all of that. But I mean, it's going to serve in some restaurants.
And sometimes you might, you know, if you just want to grab a quick coffee
and not really meddle on the day with anyone,
you will go to that robot AI restaurant.
You will do that.
But in many cases, you will
exactly crave that human
connection, even if
it's not always as pleasant.
And people will
choose to
communicate with a human
in my opinion, in most cases.
It's kind of like
customer service over the phone, man. I feel like that's the best way to kind of like uh customer service over the phone man i feel like that's like the best way
to kind of represent it you know maybe it's it's probably cheaper maybe even more efficient for
some of these companies to do that but at the end of the day when have you ever had
customer service through like an automated machine that satisfied you, maybe once in your lifetime.
You know what I always like nowadays
when I have to call some of these companies,
like a mall or something, when I have to deal with something?
And they always, most of them have AI robots nowadays.
You call there and it's like, hello,
I am your digital friend, Kate.
Please tell me what's your issue.
I'm your digital friend.
I'm your digital friend.
And it's like, I can imagine that a company,
as you said, it's way more efficient, all of that.
But I almost always tell the bot immediately, direct me straight to the human.
Yeah, I do that too.
I do that too.
I just go representative, representative on repeat until they listen.
You can just hit zero.
I just spam the zero button until it gives me a Q.
Does that work?
Is that a hack?
Yeah.
Yeah.
But I can imagine when it needs all your details, right?
Like when you call there and you can say, you know,
you can identify yourself on that call.
Like I can imagine AI doing that, right?
Like you don't need a second person there doing that.
You can quickly describe what's your problem,
but then I want to be connected to a human immediately.
GROCK, connect me to a human.
Make no mistakes.
I do like the cat AI videos, though.
Those can stay.
All right. We should
probably talk a little bit about the market, even
though it is FOMC day.
What if
follow this AI?
Dude, it's over.
Want to talk about the market moves yeah i mean as a wise man once said
dude i always wonder you know what's so funny about you brad morrison
one thanks for always being here but two there was was a kid that I kind of went to high school around that has the same name as you and looks a lot like the picture that you have on
your YouTube profile picture. I know you're not the same dude because you would have, if you were
him, you would have texted me and been like, dude, I watch your show. But it's just funny that you guys look alike and have the same name.
It's really funny to me.
And I always see you in here and I'm like, there's no way it's that.
There's no way it's Brad.
There's no way.
Maybe it's an AI version of your friend.
I would say we were more like, so we didn't go to the same school.
I played hockey with a bunch of kids that went to his school.
And like, we would then have some overlap once in a while.
But like, I know him well enough.
Like if I saw him, I would for sure stop and be like, oh, what's up?
What up, Brad?
But it's not you.
You just look like him.
Maybe I'll have him on the show one day.
He'll be super confused.
And he'll be like,
I told you.
I told you Brad Morrison, 75-42.
Anyways, so Tucker just put this on the chart and then left.
on the chart and then left. Let me get that
Let me get that straight.
straight. How do I make sense
How do I make sense of this?
of this?
Is this AI generated?
You know what would be
kind of shitty about this?
One, the industry would be cooked
for years, but two, I actually feel
like we'd make a lot of money on this and it'd be
kind of fun.
Oh my God, that's on soul?
Yeah. Oh Lord. You know's it's one of those things where you'd have to be okay dealing with like
three years of bs but if you could survive it the comeback the resurrection of the industry
would be awesome i don't know if i really think that's going to happen, man.
I mean, I think it's easy to look at like...
I have to stop you right there.
There is no coming back from this.
Like, give up hope.
If this happens...
So, man who had thought he lost all hope,
lost the last little shred of hope,
he didn't even know he had.
Yeah.
No, if this happens, Sol's never coming back.
And the same thing is for Bitcoin, honestly.
I think Bitcoin could come back, but I do think Sol would be dead.
I don't think BTC is really coming back from like...
Tucker, how did you just like put that on the chart and then leave?
Sorry, my cat. There was a cat
outside the window and my other cat.
Now he's going to blame it on the cat.
My other cat was like, screw it.
Dude, that's like the dog ate my homework
excuse from you.
There's always a cat issue.
Drop some bear porn on your
chart and then just leave.
That's like me saying I don't
have a fractal in my object tree
when I definitely do.
Tommy, he confesses.
There it is. I don't have what you just
put on there. I am
being honest, though. I didn't have that in my
object tree. Tommy, quick
question for you. Do you have
any fractals in your object tree right now?
None that you would want to see. No, that's where you're wrong. I want to see it. a question for you. Do you have any fractals in your object tree right now? None
that you would want to see.
Oh, no, no, no. That's where you're wrong. I want to see it.
I want to see it.
I want to see Dow Jones fractals
from the late
mid to late 80s into
the 90s and early 2000s
overlaid on all of my
favorite digital assets
is what I want to see.
And I know you have them.
That specifically, no, I don't have.
Dude, come on.
What if I said Bitcoin never goes below 70 again?
How would you guys feel about that?
I bet you a goes below 70 again. How would you guys feel about that?
I'd bet you a steak dinner. Dude.
It's also
like we're 1k away.
Yeah. Like I said,
tight RR, fill out the form.
Tommy, would you bet him a steak dinner?
I mean, I would,
but that just doesn't really seem like a
very fair bet. We're literally
1k. We could whipsaw to 70k today let me just take clearly you don't know these markets like i do because that
would never happen we would never whipsaw 1k down on bitcoin man that's in this new regime that's
mathematically impossible on fomc day yeah we would never do that and see here's the thing also
i'm going to bring this back to the ai discussion you can't bet ai a steak dinner you can't and that's the difference right there
men love to bet steak dinners with each other that shit's important to us for some reason we
can't explain guys it's bad karma for me to make that bet so i'm not going to guys speaking of bet i have to open up this topic polymarket and calci
have grown absolutely huge in us their numbers are just exponential year after year it's now
being discussed by lots of influential people shield we know it's a gambling. It's a straight up gambling in most cases, but it's not treated
as one. Anyone can have access to it. There's lots of politicians involved. How do you think
this whole thing goes on? What do you mean? If the right people are making money, it will survive and continue to grow.
If the right people got their seed rounds early enough, there will be no problems.
I'm pretty sure the Polymarket CEO is on the new board for the CTFC.
Correct me if I'm wrong.
I mean, I think that prediction markets will keep growing,
but realistically, it's pretty likely we get some regulation at some point.
Maybe not during this administration, but during the next,
I imagine we're going to have guardrails put on,
specifically like insider trading.
The insider trading stuff is a problem on prediction markets because there's some markets
that are really stupid and garner volume because somebody's famous. That's a real problem.
I saw a video and there was a bet on some politician from US making comments and there was the bet was if she makes the
whole speech under
65 minutes or above
65 minutes and she
literally closed it like a few
seconds before 65 minutes
and it was obvious she was watching her
watches
it's a really
big problem people even comment on it like people that the markets
are made about have commented on it like during a show and stuff i've seen um yeah but see here's
the thing though is like i don't even think they're some of them are insider trading i think
they're more like amused by it because it's like a power trip. If people were gambling on
the length of a market check or what time
we'd start the show, we would be
watching that shit cracking up,
watching people place bets on how late
we'd be to start market check.
We wouldn't do any of the insider trading
shit, of course. I'm just saying
it would be so
funny if people were actually betting on that.
We would be laughing because
people are degenerates why gamble on all this stupid shit you know but they do yeah it's funny
i i do think like prediction markets are a pretty like exotic way of hedging out different risks like
i i'm a fan of uh of that angle of prediction markets i've kind of talked about that
before i don't really know like how in depth that can get but um yeah i'm kind of i'm kind of to be
honest like to answer your question jack is i'm kind of intrigued to see how the market ends up
expanding because i don't think that it's going anywhere i think it'll become less of like a wild
west and i do think that it will have some
real world utility beyond just like gambling but Tommy you can bet on Bitcoin five minute candles
bro five minutes up or down what I will also add is that Polymarket's biggest competitor might also
be it's not Calci it It might be Hyperliquid.
I don't know if you guys saw the news today about Hyperliquid,
but they're going to be launching the first official SPX perpetual futures contract.
And they're doing it with the help of, I believe,
the Dow Jones or something like that.
So there's a bridge now for TradFi liquidity
to end up on Hyperliquid, or at the very least, that bridge is in the works.
And the next step for Hyperliquid is going to be prediction markets.
So it's kind of interesting how you have these exchanges,
like a Robinhood, Coinbase, Hyperliquid.
They're all trying to do as many different things as possible.
But Hyperliquid, to me is is probably shipping it
the best robin hood i felt like maybe it maybe it was doing it for a bit but i think they maybe
plateaued a bit um over the last like six months from an innovation standpoint they don't have
perps yet doesn't seem like they want to go that route. It seems like they're more focused on options trading.
But yeah, I mean, I think Hyperliquid at this point is like,
it might be Polymarket's biggest competitor,
or they might partner with Polymarket in some capacity.
They should.
And Polymarket actually kind of needs that
because like Couchby is doing like 100 million a month
and Polymarket's doing like four
million there is a giant gap between those two right solely because couch is centralized and
you can bet everything on the app rather like polymarket you can't really bet everything on
the ios app and so yeah i mean polymarket's kind of at risk of all these centralized players just stealing their their
gambit their you know their model um with volume like you know to add to that uh not sure if you
guys noticed but uh donald trump jr was chilling us there today yeah literally uh
like us there today yeah literally uh
it's insane it's insane about that you can add your thoughts if you want to to that no i don't
have anything nice to say i'm just not gonna say and the second thing that kraken is actually
already doing that uh they had they had the approval by Federal Reserve recently to become a
first crypto bank pretty much with
I think
a direct institutional rails
and they are opening up
a perpetual
stocks trading
24-7, the first one.
I saw Kraken
was delaying their IPO now.
I did see that.
We had a poor market conditions.
So funny.
It's like we want to have max extract at better prices.
Thank you for the honesty.
That's what the OpenSea people did the other day too.
They were supposed to launch a token or something.
And then they were in the Vanity Fair article, dude.
Yeah.
So funny.
To be fair, I really like Kraken, actually.
I think they are...
Yeah.
I like their owner a lot that they do have the proof of reserves.
They have the higher reserves than what they should actually hold.
Pretty nice platform.
Not much drama around them, which I like too.
Yeah, I'm a Kraken fan.
If you could pick a stock between Kraken and Coinbase,
which one would you pick?
Not Coinbase.
I knew you were going to say that.
I was like, I know he's probably not going to pick Kraken,
but definitely hate on Coinbase.
Gemini.
I'd pick Hyperliquid over both.
Gemini has about $200 of liquidity in total on all pairs.
They have a stock now though it's like uh it's a gemini moon base or something yeah g-e-m-i space station sorry space do you think there's ever going to be an
equity ticker that's j-e-e-t yeah probably someone will do it right it's going to be like some short
bitcoin product that comes out
and the ticker will be Jeep.
Someone's probably creating it as we speak.
Circle still going up, man.
Well, what I will say is that it's pretty clear.
There's a lot of appetite for the stablecoin trade.
I don't think that narrative's going anywhere.
I think you're seeing that with the strength
in Sky as well,
formerly known as Maker.
Can you pair chart ETH against Circle?
Or Circle against ETH?
Look at you just moving that.
Looks like my three-year-old wrote that.
EP1.
Do what?
Circle paired against ETH.
Oh, man.
We just stay cucked against everything.
The gap up.
Look at that fill the gap, though.
Come on, ETH.
Fill the gap.
I wonder if there's a...
There was something...
ETH added so much OI this week.
It's pretty funny.
I think there was
a 25% to 30% increase
in total OI in a single day.
Longs or shorts, Tommy?
Probably. Just people openly interested
in trading. I know, I know.
How's the Magnificent
7 looking today? Anybody got
eyes on it?
It's just kind of flat.
Dude, why is Microsoft the one that's just been getting destroyed?
Because it's software, Jason.
Yeah, but so is NVIDIA.
I think it's unjustified, and I think that it's actually at a great discount but
yeah it's getting destroyed because it's software simply but whenever you have a
good company that's getting destroyed because of some sentiment you know it's
a great buy like you know like and we the end to go on the to you know there
was a better market got destroyed tucker's like my book of software
what what is the deal with nvidia structure i don't even know what to make of it at this point
i think they're probably just making a killing selling options for it they must be bro they're
literally selling options so they're just selling options and everybody. They must be, bro. They're literally selling options.
So they're just selling options and everybody's
losing money because nothing is happening?
Yeah.
I really think this is about to
see a range move.
To the upside.
I just can't imagine that range is continuing
for much longer. To the upside, right?
Right.
Right. Right.
God.
I think, I mean, like, the worst-looking chart in the Mag 7 is probably Tesla, though.
Worst-looking chart, worst-looking fundamentals.
I don't know, short-term, though. Worse looking chart, worse looking fundamentals. I don't know.
Short term, though.
That's like the slow bleed of death. I know,
but it feels like they're going to just...
People are probably shorting right here, and they're just going to
nuke them.
I don't think it's just going to fall
off a cliff quite yet.
Invert the chart.
Oh, damn it.
I want to see something
hmm you know it kind of feels like it might just take some of these people out first
on that big of a deal put in a little shoulder
tesla's still a one and a half trillion dollar company and i feel like
i don't hear anybody talk about tesla's positively anymore i mean it's not going well i have to
imagine they're trying to ship their business to a completely different vertical my buddy has a tesla he enjoys it i'm not saying you can't enjoy driving a tesla
but i know i you know back in 2021 like you almost drove a tesla because
it was really trendy to do so you know yeah have you ridden in one time oh yeah i feel like
most ubers anymore are driving teslas but have you ridden in one that's driven by a
non-uber yeah like a waymo no no no like a your one of your buddies who just punches it oh no
they fly they really do like they knock you back in your seat a little bit
back in your seat a little bit.
Well,
I mean, we really don't have
too much like open road that I
could air it out on, at least not that I drive
on frequently. So yeah,
I guess you have those in Kansas City.
We just go like
10 minutes out into the kind of the
country and just send
this Tesla, dude.
I actually was looking at a Model 3,
like the performance one.
They look kind of sweet.
Yeah.
Well, dude, have they released those plaid ones yet?
Plaid?
Model S Plaid.
Oh, yeah, I think those have been out for a while.
Or maybe they were going to drop some new one
that just looks super sick.
Max, I see you in more of a Cybertruck kind of guy.
I don't know.
I don't like the Cybertrucks, man.
I'm not a huge fan.
It's a bit abstract for me.
Yeah, it is.
That's one way to describe it.
A bit abstract. What's their is that's one way to describe it a bit abstract
what's their like sports car one though because these aren't really
the roadster that's it that's it
i do like the narrative for EVs, though.
Yeah.
Over the next few years, because obviously oil prices are...
I think they're going to remain high, personally.
Basing that off of, like, nothing but a fractal.
I kind of feel like crude oil is just going to hang up here for a bit.
I'm very bullish EVs and very bearish Tesla.
It's just a funny dynamic, isn't it?
Yeah.
I'm still hoping I get to buy Rivian at like 10 bucks.
I mean, that thing's pretty nice looking.
and that's pretty bad but the thing is and has always been with tesla is like
That's pretty, that's not bad.
you know its stock has been just pumped by betting on elon elon's hype basically and they still
basically and they still
were not able to
deliver any solid numbers
actually they've been going down the past
two years nobody from
Germany is going to
or like you know
people are not buying
anymore people
Elon is not as
he doesn't have his
yeah he doesn't have as much social power as he used to in my opinion um i just remember
the elon doge days how funny that was yeah that was peak i mean he basically pumped doge to
50 billion or higher. Yeah.
And now it's like he tweets about Doge and you get a 1% pump.
He named a government
agency Doge.
And it's a lot lower than it was
when he did that, man.
Still, the Doge chart looks like...
He's got no motion.
No motion.
But I will say... Doge is one of the coins that i'm somewhat interested in picking up off before someday just not today not today i think it will have
i'm optimistic that it could have another cycle but but not going to guess.
The thing is that even if Doge is bottomed, it's still probably going to take lots of time
before it really pumps.
Like even if you're going to look at either 2022, 23 bottom
or the ones before, it always has this very, very long range.
And then that's the pump within like two weeks
yes i've always kind of likened this chart to like a microsoft chart in um oh wait
like busted through the accumulation range big deviation and then that was the bottom
But I've seen some rumors from people that think that Doge was like a CIA-driven pump
or something like that.
They say that about anything.
I mean, Bitcoin was created by Epstein, right?
I think I was talking to Tucker about about this or somebody i can't remember i was like
would it make you more or less bullish if the epstein stuff about bitcoin was actually true
and i think for me it almost make it like to me that's kind of oh you're telling me that elites
have made bitcoin is this non-sovereign storage of value for all these years. Doesn't that mean it's doing its job?
Have you seen that show Startup? They like really imply that Satoshi was like the CIA or whatever.
Like, and that came out like five years ago or something.
Basically anything we can't explain was by CIA. Gotcha.
I've read that Bitcoin was like an NSA op.
Oh, yeah.
Yeah.
I heard that Bitcoin was created by aliens.
No, but they kind of have to put, they put that stuff on TV as like a joke.
You know what I mean?
They put the truth out there in sci-fi.
You know, They really do.
They do.
Because they know you won't believe it.
Because it's that wild.
Conspiracy theorists, stay winning.
Stay winning.
Stay winning, baby.
it's over for the non-believers
It's over for the non-believers.
i think i saw it basically confirmed that they've been uh altering the weather
harp study harp i heard about that already like 10 years ago but it's uh it's roots or routes go back to like 60s
i take my advice can we finally get some volatility and equities man on the indices i know individuals are moving
i've been having this conversation with like this one, and he's just like, you keep focusing on the indices.
I'm like, my analysis is focused on the indices.
My positioning is focused on individuals.
But when we're talking about market direction, usually we're going to be talking about indices with equities.
And they haven't moved someday.
What's that like market maker whatever model you know the ict boys
market maker sell model you know what it was that thing where it's like you know we have this and
then like it's like that or whatever this looks like this needs to go negative needs to go yeah
maybe just move this down here
i think the robin hood chart looks a lot like um just speed ram the cisco bubble
i'm telling you ict has done more damage than he just hoped
yeah you mean you don't use the Lux
Algo ICT concepts indicator
Jackis?
Lux Algo.
Interbank price delivery
algorithm.
And FBI agents have been haunting
him for saying that name out loud.
I think I'll
be buying hood.
This is like the, you know, the problem with all of these.
Of course, there's an algorithm out there, right?
Of course, we see highs and lows are getting hunted but it's not like that everything
is completely manipulated at the same time it's it's a mixture of of the two uh there's always
going to be some shady things going on but there's also multiple entities fighting each other
and there is also supply and demand and And in the market, everything meets together.
There are some parts of the manipulation,
some part of supply and demand,
and lots of entities, you know,
trying to do their best.
Liquidity, I feel like, you know,
market makers have a job,
but also liquidity is naturally going to be PVP because we all want it in a position.
So, you know, I think it's like you said, Jack, the answer is somewhere in the middle.
Yeah.
I think HUD will be a good buy after another leg down though.
It's not really a chart I would buy here.
Maybe for a bounce, but...
Kind of broke its trend in my opinion.
I keep hearing Joe brag about his Netflix buys on spaces.
Take with that what you will
anybody here in netflix believer stock i will i i had a buy limit at um
exactly i had a buy limit at
70 72.5 and i got absurdly front run yeah i feel like someone and i was i was front running the
obvious level from 2021 and even that front run got front run yeah this level jack has got brutally uh bit I read a post from Vabi the other day
and he was using all that language
I was like what is that
matrix
it just makes me laugh so hard man
we were joking about it on the show
last week
he was like something talking about like
how he was joe maxing or something and then he's still gonna moog and stuff like that uh choosing to uh to end the story with uh with frame hogging and the asu frat leader though
because the more i learn it's like the worse it gets so i'm just i've chosen to uh to stop uh to
stop following this stuff you actually try to learn that language well i i am i i have learned
that uh some of the new language but it's just like what we learn about them is like
they peaked they peaked with the frame logging so i don't need to know anymore
asu frat leader can't do more than three sets of 225. Three?
I know.
And he's on gear.
So, like.
Wow.
I've chosen to stop following the story to preserve my opinion of them.
I feel like they just do lateral raises for, like, six hours a day.
I feel like they just do lateral raises for like six hours a day.
That's it.
That's it.
Dude, I love lateral raises, but I mess my elbow up a certain kind of way.
I think it's like a tennis elbow.
So now when I do lateral raises, it just – I get brutally elbow mugged.
Can you do like front raises or no?
Oh, I love those too yeah i still think if we're talking
about like trying to get mass on the shoulders though you got to be pressing yeah military press
shoulder press one of the two you got to do them what are you military pressing these days tommy
i know i actually just started military pressing again for the first time since my injury
like two weeks ago so I'm pretty sure Wabi
can military press an
obscene amount of words. I believe it.
Yeah. I do know
how I feel when I try to learn that new
language.
How do you do
focus?
Don't worry,
Jack. You could aim.
I don't know.
Maybe I'm just too old for that anymore.
I can play games.
I can be fun.
But that language is beyond me.
I mean, listen.
Second kid is coming up.
I can't.
Not going to have time to be worrying about frame mogging and the likes.
I'll probably let them learn the new ways and teach me.
Jackets, when's the kid expected?
This fall.
December. Nice. Yeah. Jackets, when's the kid expected? This fall, September.
Nice.
Yeah.
As I was saying, there are decades when nothing happened,
and then there is a year where a decade happened.
That's how it's been for me.
Yeah, I'm kids maxing Max you're still on a single baby right?
single baby
he started first
but now you're lagging
I'm getting lapspped by Chef.
I'm kids.
He's kid maxing.
I'm just chub jacking kids right now, man.
Nothing's happening.
Some people are stacking sots.
I'm stacking kids.
Stacking kids.
The best huddle of your life.
the best huddle of your life
i don't know i'd like to have another one probably soon because my kid now is like he
turns three this summer it's like two and three quarters right now so i don't know it'd be like a
three and a half four year age age gap, you know, fine.
Better start banging soon.
I mean, the kid's going to be too old for the other.
Oh, chef.
I mean, listen, you're definitely not ballmogging,
so you need to...
No, I'm not ballmogging.
I'm not ballmogging.
You need to do it ASAP.
The first kid is getting older.
You're not growing any new balls.
You gotta do it ASAP.
Maybe I could maybe I could
like regrow it somehow you know go to like Tijuana and get some like stem cell
something experimental surgery it'll grow back you don't want to teach one
baby one bull max baby is still bigger than all tichuan babies bb is baby maxing
no but i think it's you know we we were discussing this a lot lately anyone whom we have asked you know that has two babies
basically said that they would never go back like like they are super happy that they have two
and so we understand it's gonna be big challenge time wise mental wise but uh i think the kids will love it and we will love it essentially
too and so max definitely go for it jack is how many are you going for
i want to say that we want us we wanted to stop at one
now it's two we want will stop there. So no guarantees. But yeah, we definitely
will stop. You have like eight kids, bro. Me? Eight kids? No. Unless you do something
about it, you're going to have like eight. I will definitely have to...
We will definitely have to be more careful, that's for sure.
Jack, do you know the story of Antonio Cromartie?
Do you, Tucker?
Yeah.
So Antonio Cromartie had...
He ended up having like eight kids with five or six different women and just a
few years after entering the nfl it was so bad because he was paying so much in child support
that he got a vasectomy and they had three more kids three more kids
I mean, dude, Tyreek Hill is in a worse situation than that.
Like, he's got a few with a few different...
He's in the same spot, really.
And his leg is broken.
To answer that question, yes, we were...
Listen, we've broken out.
Now we are retesting.
So, again again simple approach unless we accept back
within the range then i expect higher up still yes
how selfish to interrupt our personal discussion with a market question
i'm kidding
that's probably a good spot to wrap the show up though i think yes
especially as we have fomc in an hour and 15 minutes so should be good guys uh should at the
very least provide i don't know some volatility i hope uh we can only hope maybe jerome powell
has a surprise in store for us but regardless guys we'll be here tomorrow to discuss it with
you whatever does or does not happen chud jack mode um thank you for tuning
into market check though guys we run this show throughout the week uh exchanges open on the
following days monday wednesday thursday and friday so like i just said you can catch us again
tomorrow as well as friday to wrap up your week with coverage on markets and obviously uh you know we just like to have a lot of fun doing these shows as well, as you can tell.
So make sure to tune in if you enjoyed the show.
Hit the like button, subscribe if you haven't already.
And of course, also make sure to tune in for Market Talk,
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Those are spaces hosted not just through Wabi's X account, but also through the BecauseBitcoinX account. So make sure to stay following and subscribed
so you can be notified, not just when we schedule those spaces, but also when we go live.
Our typical start time with those, I guess I forgot to mention our typical start time for
market check, which is right around 1130 EST for market talk. It's right around 345 ish EST.
or 345 PM.
I got clarified,
I guess,
because not everybody here is,
is from America,
but thank you guys for tuning in.
We'll see you guys tomorrow.
Make sure to wrap up your day with Wabi over on market talk.
I'm sure it will be entertaining after,
after FOMC. And yeah,
we'll see you guys again tomorrow. Thank you as always. And of course, stay safe.
