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Bitcoin Market Discussion
Recorded: April 4, 2025 Duration: 0:34:39Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the current market dynamics, highlighting Bitcoin's resilience amidst bearish sentiments and the potential for significant growth. Key insights included the absence of major players from previous cycles, the stability of Bitcoin despite market fluctuations, and the possibility of an echo bubble that could drive prices to new highs.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. you you
yo what's up guys we're gonna be getting started soon but let's give everyone another like minute or two to hop on in and then we'll get to get it
going Thank you. All right, guys, let's get the show on the road.
Don't want to do this for too, too long today,
but I just want to talk a little bit about the market for whoever's on. I know it's kind of like the last minute slash, you know,
Friday or Saturday for most people. But I mean, when you think about the market,
think about the market, it's like probably one of the most obvious setups in a while.
I mean, I tweeted about this when Trump announced his tariffs two days ago and Bitcoin dumped
to 81K. And I felt then that you had a lot of like reactionary selling. Market went down.
of reactionary selling, market went down, and then we started, we basically slammed into the same
level a couple times, and it's not going down, right? And what's the crazy thing? All the fears,
all the reasons for people to be bearish. I used to talk to people and they'd say, look,
Bitcoin looks bullish, but we don't know what's going to happen if the stock market collapses.
And here we are, and we're seeing it, right?
Bitcoin's nowhere close to 76.7.
And when you think about everything that we've seen in the crypto space, it all adds up, right?
Bitcoin dumped from 110 to 76.7 while stocks were basically still pretty elevated.
You deleveraged everyone.
You even had that Trump strategic reserve.
You dumped down to a new low.
You had all of these quote-unquote bearish catalysts happen.
Or not bearish catalysts.
You've had bearish price action for months.
Who's left to sell, right?
And this cycle is very different than the last cycle because you don't have, as far as I'm aware, you don't have
the three ACs, you don't have the Celsius, you don't have all this concentrated margin activity
going on like you did the past cycle. And so things deleveraged, people have had months to de-risk their books. And like most of
the people I talk to, like these bigger players, they're de-risked. Like you hear like, what's the
word? I don't want to say like, you hear very timid behavior, right? Big firms. I'm talking
firms with like eight figures, nine figures. You like hear like timid behavior, like? Big firms, I'm talking firms with like eight figures, nine figures, you like hear
like timid behavior, like, oh yeah, we do like, even if they sold the top, right? Like, oh yeah,
we de-risked and we've just been out, right? Everyone's out one way or the other, whether
they got out in January or whether they got out in March when the market dumped and like they have
to basically like secure their book, you know, everyone is basically out. And so that's sort of where we're at right now,
which is most people have de-risked. And that's what you're seeing, right? The Nasdaq drops 10%
in two days and Bitcoin's still at 84. Bitcoin at 84 like a month ago right now that's way lower
all the quote-unquote macros as bad as it's gonna get and like still stocks are you know crypto is
doing just fine and it makes sense and maybe not alts maybe some of these alts have gotten turbo
wrecked right like i'm looking at things like tia. You know, things like Farcoin are up.
Like, I could see Farcoin running again, back to like $1, $1.52, just because the meme is so
freaking strong. Most of these alts are just wrecked, right? Like, Sol is at $1.23. You know,
you have to ask yourself these questions. It doesn't make sense to be bearish when something like a Solana is already down 60%.
What are you targeting at that point?
And I don't think there's a good answer to that question.
What is the bearish argument at this point?
And I'm seeing a lot of also,
hey, we're noticing the relative strength in Bitcoin,
but it might change all of a sudden.
If you look historically, when Bitcoin's really fallen off a cliff, it's because there's either
obvious leverage in the form of like, hey, open interest is high on Bybit or something,
or there's shadow leverage, as I like to call it, where you have these three ACs and these Celsius
that no one
really knows about or they maybe they know about them a little bit but they end up just blowing up
and as far as I'm aware all of the sort of like front-facing leverage has been wiped right and a
lot of like the back end you know shadow leverage is somewhat non-existent. Like, you just have firms who are
in crypto positions, and they've had three months to de-risk. So, you know, Nasdaq, like,
and people would say, hey, well, TradFi is trading, you know, crypto is trading like TradFi, or,
you know, this is a TradFi-driven market. I mean, this is the same shit you heard at like 18k and 22 years
ago. Like when everyone starts focusing on non crypto negative reasons to be bearish, like,
what is the sign to sign of a bottom and a top? Typically speaking, not always, but typically
speaking. And not to say things can't get even more overblown, right? So take that also, you know, when I'm describing this.
What is the sign of a top?
Every day or every other day, you get some sort of headline.
Hey, we have a big announcement coming.
Hey, this is coming.
Hey, you know, like it's things that are perceivably bullish, but you're already at very elevated prices.
And so it doesn't impact the market. So like, hey, Senator Lumens has an
amazing announcement and then the announcement is always a disappointment. Or, oh, Trump launches a
meme coin. Like, oh, Trump is going to do this, Trump is going to do that, Trump appoints the Crypto Czar or whatever. These are sort of things that you see at tops.
Where it's like signs of news announcements, etc.
And the market just doesn't react.
And so what do you see more so at bottoms or more so at like capitulation points.
People have like given up on crypto.
They're in cash.
They're ready for like an like, do you think the market is going to go down another 50% when everyone's already expecting a bear market?
That's basically where we're at right now.
And it's price action versus versus news that you need to really pay attention to, really on both ends, right?
So what's the news this time around?
Tariffs are so bad.
Stock market collapsing, blah, blah, blah.
And Bitcoin's chilling at 84, right?
And, like, I've talked to some people with capital, and I'm like, look, I think this is a good spot to deploy.
And their reaction's like, well, you know, I don't have enough evidence yet to buy or whatever, or vice versa.
And so to me, this is like the risk reward.
And plus, like, just look at the market from a technical standpoint.
The high was 74K.
Let's just call it 74.
We tapped it for six months straight. You don't think there's going to be obscene demand near the mid 70s or high 70s or low 80s? Like just
technically speaking, it's such a clean, like if you think about the story of the last six months,
we pumped up, we built up some leverage, and we basically spent three months deleveraging. And where did we find
support? At the exact support resistance flip, right? 74 was resistance, mid-70s was resistance,
and then mid-70s became support. Just like what happened in the summer of last year, right? 49
was the high. Granted, it was a much shorter time frame high, and 49 ended up becoming support.
high. Granted, it was like a much shorter time frame high. And 49 ended up becoming support.
And then we spent a couple months chopping and ultimately we went up. So I don't know,
it's like, it's about as clear a story as I can get. Like, yeah, can we go down to 82 again?
Yeah, it's possible. Can we go down like significantly more than 82? Can we go to 70?
Yeah, I guess, I'm sorry about 70. Like, can we go to 80? Yeah, I guess, or sorry about 70, like can we go to 80?
Yeah, 80 is possible. Are we going to go to 70? Like I kind of doubt that we're going to go as
low as something like a 70k. Just because, again, a lot of the selling has already sort of taken
place. And again, who's left to sell on Bitcoin? That's sort of the question people have to ask themselves.
All the open interest is wiped out. ETFs outflowed several billion dollars worth of Bitcoin.
Funds have de-risked, either at the top or on the way down. Stock markets come down, so like correlation sellers have had an opportunity to sell.
So you've had like all of these sort of sellers that have already come in.
Who's left to sell, right?
And this is what I've noticed more so like from Americans,
less so from like, maybe a little less so from people
who are located more globally.
Bitcoin's a global asset, right? Maybe instead of Chinese people coming to the US and buying
real estate, they just buy crypto. Maybe people in the UAE and Middle East, North Africa region
just go into crypto instead of speculating in US assets.
So, and I'm not saying they go into like some bullshit token.
I don't know.
Like maybe they don't go and buy BitConnect or something, right?
Like they're probably not going to buy a BitConnect.
I mean, I'm using BitConnect as an example because I don't want to throw out like any
current tickers, but it's very plausible.
They go out and they just say, fuck it, let's just buy some more Bitcoin, whatever.
And on the flip side, you have Saylor coming up with insane...
And Saylor could be a risk in the future,
but he's coming up with these insane ways of basically doing financial manipulation.
Or not financial engineering. That's the word I'm looking for.
And yeah, long term, maybe that's a problem. But short to midterm, that's only bullish demand.
He's not a seller, right? So he's coming up with smart, like, I don't know if you'd use the word
smart, but he's coming up with creative ways of getting more Bitcoin. And he's absorbing a lot
of the supply, right? Like he bought two and a half billion, I think, in this range. Like he's
probably absorbed 30,000 BTC worth of selling. So who's the new seller that comes in, right?
I think it's very possible, and I could be wrong about this, I think it's very possible we get
some sort of echo bubble at some point. And in that echo bubble, it's very plausible that Bitcoin even makes a new high.
Like probably alts across the board won't because alts is just much more of like this
PVP race to the bottom.
Like, and not only that, it's, I don't want to say smart founders, but it's, you know,
the value of extraction in alts, like
people who launch alts know what's going on, right? Like the most blatant example was that
Libra token, right? Where they just extracted a hundred million dollars out of the market in a
few hours. But like, look at Trump, right? Like Trump's another example of that, where it's just
like this obvious, like grift and money comes out of it and it's obvious like trump is
never going back to its all-time high right that should be clear so it's just like multi hundred
million dollar billion dollar grift that happens and you know with a lot of other alts this is why
like dino alts sometimes can run really hard it's because you don't have this like grift
grift mechanic behind it but with a lot of these other newer alts like yeah you probably have like a lot of this grift
mechanic still there which is why like even if bitcoin ends up like running and making a new high
sometime this year like it's very plausible that alts don't and so that's just something to consider
i suppose by the way if you guys have questions, feel free to post them into Spaces, like into Spaces thread.
If people want to hop on too, you can request the mic.
Happy to bring some people on board.
I don't know.
It's just, it's one of those situations where, like the COVID crash was more blatant but I remember I remember during the COVID crash it was like so obvious on
some of those dips that it's just like a clear buy and people just wouldn't buy right but then
you know when BTC dips from 110 to 104 it's like then everyone's trying to buy the dip it's like
I've talked about this ever since I started doing spaces four years ago you know when markets are up only people want to buy the first
micro dip and that's how they ultimately get liquidated like they want to buy the first four
percent dip on bitcoin they want to buy the first leg down on alts and when the market's like been
down or depressed for a while people look to sell a while, people look to sell the first pump.
People look to short the first pump.
And you can hand evidence on a silver platter at market highs.
Go back to last March.
I wrote that massive-ass thread around 74K.
You can hand people 15 points of evidence on a silver clatter that they should be cautious.
And they'll be like, yeah, but, you know, whatever. Right. And at the bottom, like you can hand people
like the most like blatant pieces of evidence that the market's probably bottoming. And like,
they still won't take it. like what more evidence you need then
the Nasdaq's been down five percent two days in a row and not only has Bitcoin
not made a new low it's not even come with it it's come with like it's five
thousand dollars off the prior low I mean like what more evidence do you need
right that's that's sort of my thought process here you know combine that with
sentiment being shit, multiple months
of already going down, and miscellaneous, like, et cetera, et cetera. And like, maybe
I should also talk about what do I want to see to think like, hey, this range might break
down. What I'd want to see is like some sort of local pocket maybe it's a two-week or three-week pocket
of people re-engaging in the market people re-leveraging you know that's what I would
want to see like look at the the Doe Kwan top in 2022 and you know I fucked that like I ended up
fucking that one up because I bought the dip which worked for a bit and it didn't like in the 30s
back in the 30s again but like you had two weeks of up only with the DoCo on top.
You sat at elevated prices for two weeks.
That's why the market broke down.
Look at the Sheik handle in 2019.
You ended up sitting above 9K for multiple weeks, right?
So I haven't seen that.
It's one thing if we were to go to, you know, 95K tomorrow, sit at 95K for three weeks, you know, see like all these alts pull a double over that course of that three weeks.
Then I'd say, yeah, like there's I think there's like a good amount of downside risk here.
downside risk here. But to look at the market and say, like, hey, like, everything's just going to
go straight to zero, I think it's just a mistake here. So that's sort of where I'm sitting right
now. Let me see what, let me see some of these questions. Someone says, but how are we not
getting 80K liquidated? I mean, look, that just, look, it's possible. Maybe we do go to 80.
80k liquidated. I mean, look, that just, look, it's possible. Maybe we do go to 80. Maybe if,
maybe if the Nasdaq continues to fall off a cliff, we go to 80. But what, like,
that's also part of the market, right? Leaving a lot of people in the dust, like, oh, I'm not
going to buy until we run 80. Oh, I'm not going to buy until 72. Like, how many times have we,
have I seen on my timeline over the last month, like, I'm not a buyer until 72.
And 72 has not come.
So, I don't know.
I think the risks here are just so asymmetric to the upside.
And not to say, again, that we can't dip from 84 to 83.
But I think if we go from 84 to 77, I'd be pretty shocked.
Someone said, do you think Bitcoin could have a delayed reaction
as opposed to NASDAQ?
I think Bitcoin had its reaction
already, before the NASDAQ did its thing.
I think crypto already deleveraged
to a large degree.
Bitcoin pre-deleveraged
in some ways, for lack of a better word.
And then the NASDAQ is deleveraging now.
And initially there was this tight correlation because you had massive ETF outflows as this was happening.
You had massive ETF outflows late Feb, early March while this was happening.
Now you don't, right?
Yesterday was a minus 5% day.
And there was less than 100 million in outflows from the ETFs.
The BlackRock ETF actually had inflows.
So what does that tell you?
These things aren't as correlated as people think.
At the bottom, everyone thinks that they're more correlated than they are.
And we're sort of just in that process of market finding a bottom,
people sort of being in denial of it, in my opinion.
And eventually, like, we just start going up.
All right, let's see if anyone else has questions.
Or if anyone wants to hop on, feel free to request.
Maybe I'll just talk briefly about what my outlook is.
And then if there's no other questions, maybe I'll call it a wrap early.
By the way, if you guys aren't in my Discord,
I'm starting to be more active in there again, Zucap.
I'm starting to post my trades in there regularly again.
So if you're not in there, join my Discord.
It's pinned in my bio.
I'm just going to retweet it right now.
Why not?
I'm starting to be more active in there,
and I'm trying to get the ball rolling in there again. So, uh, if you're not in there, hop in.
Uh, okay. So what are my thoughts on like what the market's going to do? Because obviously,
you know, tough to say, but my base case, I'm gonna let in one speaker here. Um, my base case
is like, we could chop more, but I think we're going to eventually just start
grinding up.
And I think at some point you're going to get a stock market day, maybe you don't, but
if you get a stock market day where it's like plus 3%, plus 5%, you're probably going to
get massive outperformance in Bitcoin.
My base case right now is that we can probably get some sort of echo bubble here. And maybe it's not even an echo bubble.
Maybe it's just a continuation of Bitcoin on the trend that it's been on since Jan 2023.
But, you know, alts obviously, you know, maybe alts as a whole don't, like, make all-time highs again.
But that's my base case.
I think, like, there's been a lot of pain.
It's going to take time for people to accept
that the pain is probably over. And this is how these things work. It's a, you know, I like to use
the word confidence cycle. You know, confidence was at a 10 out of 10 in December. I would say
confidence is like at a two or three out of 10 right now. Like people's hopes and dreams about
this market are pretty
shot so with that being said let me let's get these two speakers in here ymf what's up brother
hey brother um shimp i'm i just wanted to say that um i understand like everything you say about
uh btc and whatnot and its relation to like it's literally the biggest asset in crypto and even this kind of
like in its own kind of in its own kind of lane as opposed to the rest of the crypto market
and most of the most of the people on twitter are mostly macro guys and traders who have been in the market for years and years and years um but for newer participants
who have probably foregone going down the traditional route of buying into bitcoin
initially like a lot of people are like knee-deep in alts i just wanted to like ask for all of the
people that are in that situation what are your your thoughts on Ethereum and the rest of the broader altcoin market,
altcoins?
I think alt as a whole probably don't make a new high.
There's just too much predatory behavior in them.
I think if you get it at the right time,
you can probably outperform Bitcoin,
like if we get some sort of echo bubble. But...
So I think that you just be careful. When the time comes, you probably want to rotate
back into Bitcoin, let me put it that way.
Okay. So for anyone who's probably been caught offside for a long period
and just waited in alts,
would you say now at this inflection point,
you should probably be overweight Bitcoin as opposed to,
and taking the hit on whatever alts you are holding
and just holding Bitcoin?
It's hard to say. I lean towards like maybe stick your alts you are holding and just holding bitcoin it's hard to say i lean towards like
maybe stick sticks your alts uh but uh midterm like
uh it's a tough one like eventually you're gonna want to make that rotation let me put it that way
yeah yeah yeah but it just depends on like because obviously now it's you're kind of like
caught between a rock and a hard place you don't want to you know accept the losses that you've
already had and then you also don't want to miss on the potential that well you'd always know
bitcoin is going to go up in the long run but you always
want to be able to catch that upside rather than you know start praying that and praying that like
it's almost like you're praying for jesus is coming when you're like you know 50 down on
some of your positions or you get what i mean so it's like yes yes it's a tough one but thank you for
thank you for your words and thank you for having me on the stage no no worries all right we got
non-negotiable in the house non-negotiable what's up brother what's up man how you doing doing good
bro how have you been i've been doing good uh it's finding a really funny day in the markets
right now i just see a lot of fear and uh it's pretty confusing to
me because yeah this is when things are as bullish as they can be this is when you want to buy
although i'm a little confused about like your idea of an echo bubble though
um by echo maybe echo is not the right word i just think like i think that the trend that we've seen in Bitcoin over the last like two, two and a half years could continue. And then like alts maybe have some sort of more of an echo.
parasitically drained by like, you know, founders or founding groups that are like very predatory.
But I think Bitcoin can continue its trend. That's sort of what I'm trying to say, I guess.
A hundred percent. But like right now, it seems to me that Bitcoin is just going to have like an
insanely parabolic move that I wouldn't call it an echo bubble i agree with the alts i think some
alts are going to go absolutely insane and they're going to run to all-time highs but
you know like that's probably like one out of a hundred one out of a thousand um you know i
wouldn't be surprised if we see bitcoin at 200 000 by q1 of 2026 you know like march of 2026, you know, like March of 2026, like 150 to me would be a conservative target.
Like I'd be surprised if we're only at 150 by March of 2026.
It wouldn't, it wouldn't surprise me if we're like, if in a year from now, we're talking
about Bitcoin at 150 to 200, that would not be surprising at all to me.
And like, that's what gets so crazy to me right now where like today's
just like one of the funniest days i've seen in markets we have bitcoin at 84 000 and no yeah like
for a while it's like oh bitcoin's not going below 60 bitcoin's not going below 60 and sure we wick
to 49k but it's the same setup it's like okay are we gonna go to 70? Maybe, you know, sure, maybe we could go to like 76.
But it's like, if we find ourselves at like 150 Bitcoin, $200,000 Bitcoin, that's the whole thing
about the $60,000 price level. Like, you have that run up in a year to 150, 200,000. It's like,
good luck ever buying Bitcoin at these cheap prices ever again, like people will be priced
out for the rest of their lives. Yeah, it's that's the thing too like people don't look to buy when there's
these dips and like the 60k point dude is such a good point because you'd hear like every time we
dip below 60 you'd get all these like bear trolls that would come out and be like well you know we're
not we're not below 60 anymore like we're. It looks like we're not holding 60 this time.
And, like, if you bought any of those dibs below 60,
you're still up, like, a pretty penny.
You know, you're still up probably, like, 50% or something.
So it's like, yeah, like, we dipped below 60, so what?
It's the same thing.
I think it's the same thing with 80.
Like, yeah, we dipped below 80, like, so what?
You know,
it just gets auto bought up.
Yeah.
A hundred percent.
It just,
yeah,
that's all I was going to say.
I was trying to like clarify the echo bubble and things are looking insanely
bullish.
Yeah.
I mean,
I'm in a,
I'm in agreement with you, brother. I think it's just a matter of time. And I think a lot of people are psyoping themselves into like reasons to not be bullish when they probably just should be bullish.
Thanks, man. You have a good day, bro. Thank you, bro. All right. We got Jesse in the house. What's up, brother? Hey, how's it going? Thanks for doing the spaces. I hadn't caught one in a while.
So I hear everything you're saying.
My question is, if equities have entered a structural bear market and we are going to go into a recession, can you see Bitcoin making new highs in that environment?
I don't see why not. I mean, Bitcoin is a global asset. So if equities crater across the board,
obviously that's not as conducive to other risk assets going up. But look at gold. Gold is still above $3,000. Is it correlated a little bit to equities? Maybe, but it's holding up just fine.
And when I look at Bitcoin, I'm like, why can't it go up? You know, it's,
it's like this decentralized asset, you know, like in a world also where there's all these
tariffs and all these, all this freaking like government, what's the word? Meddling. Like,
if anything, you know, if you're a rich individual, it might make more sense than ever to own some,
some Bitcoin. So that's sort of my thought process. Like, I think it can. You know, maybe we're talking about a
difference of like Bitcoin going to 130 versus Bitcoin going to 180, right? Like, if the Nasdaq
settles at 14,000, maybe Bitcoin goes to 130. If the Nasdaq settles that back to like 22,000 or
whatever, right? Like, let's say it just goes back to new all-time highs.
Maybe we're talking about Bitcoin at 180 or something.
So, you know, whatever, like the quote unquote next, like we've had these, like sort of like
these highs, right?
Like over the last two and a half years, like first we topped at 25, then we topped at 32.
Then it took months to break 32.
Then we went to like the mid 40s
then it took like a couple months there then we went to 74 that took like six months or uh
what was it eight months sorry that took eight months you know now we went to 110
sort of in a couple months again you know the, the next leg up, like I said, maybe if things are in the shitter,
maybe the next leg up is only to like 130, right?
Or something like that.
If things are back to normal,
maybe it's to 150 or 170 or 180 or whatever.
So that's sort of how I'm thinking about it.
I think Bitcoin can go up,
but it's just going to affect
like the magnitude of the move.
Interesting, thanks. And what do you think is a safe liquidation level for longs now personally i think
i don't think we're going to go to 76 again but if you want to be safe maybe 70 maybe 60 like i
don't know it just depends on your preference.
Like, I don't think we're, like, the way I'm looking at the market right now is I would be very surprised if we go to 76.7.
So it's hard to say.
Like, is it 76.7?
I mean, if you're risking only a smaller percentage of your net worth, then yeah.
only a smaller percentage of your net worth then yeah is there an off chance
similar to the summer like where we were waking down that we wick to you know
74 or 72 like yeah that's possible but I find it unlikely like there's just so
many bits down to 70 that it's I think it's gonna be hard to like crack through
sub 70 but that's sort of how I'm thinking about it right now.
Like this just looks like such an, like, it wouldn't even surprise me to be honest if we don't even trade below 80.
But obviously that's like pretty close.
So that's a pretty high risk.
But the way I'm looking at the way we're trading and the way that the Nasdaq's trading, like if you told me Bitcoin's not going to trade below 80 ever again,
that wouldn't totally shock me.
Interesting. Thank you.
Yeah, thanks, Jesse.
All right, guys, I'm going to call it a wrap.
I just want to do a quick spaces.
I might end up trying to schedule these, like, at a set time moving forward
as I, like, start to do these spaces again.
I'm looking into some a couple different things I guess one is like maybe streaming with charts and etc to
sort of show what I'm thinking um I'm also thinking about like you know putting out videos
or whatever if people don't have the time to listen to these like short videos summarizing
my thoughts I put out an article last week summarizing why i was bullish um so thinking about different things like that uh but like i
said i'm trying to be more active in discord as well so if you're not in the zoocap discord
go for it go join it's pinned in my bio i've been starting to post trades there again that i'm
taking and so yeah appreciate it guys until. Until next time, thanks again. And if you
guys have any feedback, send it to me, because I'm all ears. So thank you, guys, and take care.
