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Bitcoin Survived a War, a Gold Crash, and a Stock Meltdown - in One Week | Market Check
Recorded: March 4, 2026 Duration: 1:04:57Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by BB.
There is no second best live YouTube stream to talk about the markets.
Welcome back, everybody. March 4th. It is Wednesday. We've got a squeeze today.
It's a counter at the dump that we had yesterday. We still can't leave the Hotel California range in equities.
I can't even joke about it at this point. I hate it. But at least crypto's got some pretty good
volatility today, right? Bitcoin up about 7%, ETH up about 8% or 9%. All coins obviously following
through as well. We'll discuss all of that and then some on today's episode. We've got me, Snorlax,
Prometheus, Chimp Phone, our guest today, and of course, Chef Jackus. We're going to have a great
episode for you guys. But before we can get started, before we can start cooking,
opening up the charts and sharing our thoughts on the market, I'm going to ask very nicely if
you guys can hit that like button for us, especially for our special guest, Chimp Phone, who it's been a while since he's been on Market
Check with us. But nevertheless, guys, we will cook for you guys and have a great,
we're going to have a great stream. But yeah, I've already kind of touched on the market a
little bit. Bitcoin punching above 73K. Is this a sign at the bottom? Is this a short squeeze?
Bitcoin punching above 73K. Is this a sign of the bottom? Is this a short squeeze?
We'll talk about it on the show. As I've said a few times already to open up this stream,
I mean, ETH is up. I'm not sure what Bitcoin dominance is doing because I'm seeing Bitcoin
up more than some altcoins, which I do think is pretty interesting. But I would say also not that
surprising, right? What's going to be catching most of the bid from boomers on green days?
It's going to be Bitcoin.
It's going to be that correlation to equity markets.
But MAG7 is rebounding today.
That's why we're seeing some outsized strength from the NASDAQ versus other indices.
Will we be breaking down from this range?
Or are we about to potentially rip out from the top side of the S&P, which is currently 7000, right?
I mean, 6700, 7000, those are really the two levels to be cognizant of.
If you are trading equity markets above and below, we will have a very, very volatile move because we're talking about ultimately six to eight months of positioning now.
That is that could potentially unwind, right? And I've been saying, you know, I think that there
are risk peripheries that are probably pointing towards that break, probably more likely to be
lower. But you can never rule anything out, right, when it comes to this market,
especially when it comes to American tech. We'll see if the war has any meaningful movement on the market as well.
That's what I'm seeing right now, guys. I feel like we're very much in a...
We get a headline, volatility will give us an impulsive move higher. They crush volatility,
but the floor for bull continues to rise and thus the ceiling
for a lot of these assets and equities continues to fall. So we kind of need to see a larger crush
on volatility. Maybe that's resolution of the war. I don't know. Maybe the war doesn't matter
because the VIX was already trading elevated before that. Regardless, I mean, that's what
you need to see. You need to see volatility crush.
And I also think you probably need to see this level on the dollar
probably turn into a spot where we see a rejection as well.
But lots to discuss, guys.
How are we doing?
What are we seeing in the markets?
Welcome, Chimp Phone.
And yeah, guys, I hope everybody's having a great week so far.
When the market finally bounces.
Pretty much. It feels nice to have some green in the market.
The wipes are definitely much better, always.
They are.
You know, you should always respect the pump, even when you're bearish.
That's kind of...
In the past, on days like today i'd be like oh ha ha ha bulls you've fallen
right into my trap but and you know i'm just like now uh it's just it's respect the pump right
if you're making money on longs and i'm happy for you i will say i did here's what i saw when i
opened up x today i saw people buying spot per on hyper liquid and i thought to
myself yeah you should be doing that uh after an eight percent rally on bitcoin in a day not before
but um yeah that's anecdotal i completely missed this entire move so i can't really i'll be honest i was there right now
um i don't know what's it kind of i i have a meeting yeah go on go on
okay keep talking okay yeah i so i kind of missed it because i thought i was pretty barehold um
but also like i think people are celebrating maybe a little bit too early
personally but it does look it does look like a pretty like decent bottom chart wise um yeah
that's that's how i feel like i don't i don't really feel like i used to like i used to get
like so tilted when people would be like,
oh, did you miss this?
Blah, blah, blah, all that shit.
But it's whatever.
It's kind of good.
I haven't really been paying attention to crypto since 10.10,
so I can't really be that mad for not chopping myself up in the meantime.
I do wonder how much of this...
People seem to be equating the fact that there's a decent
like uh narrative now because of people converting money to uh bitcoin to escape
war areas but i don't really uh i don't think that's actually happening but it's a
fun narrative nonetheless um but yeah no i missed all of this and so i'm coping pretty bad i don't think you
need to cope like uh let's not sugarcoat this crypto has been pretty shit for a long while
and it will take long while before it gets exciting again anyway so yeah yeah i know i mean
i i hope it keeps going up but the problem is for me i mainly
make money on crypto these days by playing like on chain and stuff and on chain is just fucking
terrible for absolutely ages um this whole like claim fees meta was some of the worst shit i've
ever had to be part of it was like basically crypto twitter was sitting in the cuckold chair
begging them to begging them to claim fees so that they can endorse their coin and i didn't
really want to play play those games so um yeah and all of this ai stuff is going past me as well
i come from like somewhat technical background and i just can't look over how most of these are like
vibe coded slop like anyone that's actually
making a real product isn't going to fucking launch a pump fun coin are they they're going
to hope to get acquired how they did with open claw so um having said that though having said
that I do think long term I actually think there's a pretty good and I'm talking long term I'm not
talking like in this year or something but in the next few years i do think there's possibly a pretty good ball case for like ethereum over bitcoin uh just because if all of this agent stuff does
take off and i think permissionless money will be important i think that transact if they manage to
scale ethereum to like really fast and cheap transactions which is what they said they're
going to do but fuck knows if they're actually going to do it then i think there's a pretty good ball case there and they're the ef
and all that are leaning heavily into it so i kind of like eth long term but i think it's going to
trade lower this year i kind of like the thesis but uh at the end you you totally ruined it with
saying you think it's gonna go lower first yeah yeah look i mean who
knows who knows but i just i don't know i've kind of just been thinking like us stocks are gonna go
down this year and maybe that's a heresy to say but um i don't know i just it feels like they're
juicing it unlike nothing and that's why it's been stuck in a range forever and they're like
fudging all the numbers and all of this shit just to prop it up
and i can't imagine all of this i mean i'm not a geopolitical expert but obviously we can pretend to be if we use twitter um but it seems as though the closing of the straight and all of that stuff
probably isn't going to be too good for the economy in general and all these tariffs if
they're actually coming in so who knows who? Who knows? I mean, closing the Strait of Hormuz isn't definitely convenient for countries like India,
China, probably EU.
EU is totally fucked, as we know, for you and me who live there.
But for US, it's pretty good, actually.
It's pretty good, actually.
You know, U.S. is now the largest producer of oil in the world.
Over the past decade, it ramped up its fracking.
And it's not dependent on anyone anymore, pretty much.
Like, it still does import some oil, the hard one from, like, Canada and from Mexico.
all uh the hard one from like uh canada and uh from mexico but uh i don't you know it's probably
not going to affect uh us at all um yeah yeah but i think a lot of stuff is still made in like china
and india no and so they have to get stuff over i guess they i guess they have planes i don't i
don't know all of this stuff works.
I just see people whinging and complaining and get involved.
So I don't know.
I feel like it's going to have some effect.
I'd like US stocks to get down,
but I feel like a lot of people are somehow still sidelined.
But who knows?
No, I agree with you. I think lots of stocks are ready to correct further.
The tough situation with SPX was that we saw lots of stocks correcting quite a lot,
even from Mach 7, right?
The thing is that while that was happening, lots of stocks also went up at the same time
and it kind of resulted in SPX going basically sideways for how much now?
Like six months, right?
Yeah, this is the six months currently.
So it always offset each other's move, kind of.
But if you're going to look at Microsoft,
that's a huge company and it's down 30% from the top.
So that idea of stocks correcting is definitely there and it's been happening.
Yeah, I think that's a big reason why we are bouncing now is because you know those tech names right like software microsoft uh they've given just like eight nine percent bounces from
their local loads which you know the nasdaq has been outperforming on these bounces uh it's like
you said we saw capital rotation where tech slowed down and then you had defensives bid.
And now we have a situation where, you know, defensives are underperforming tech because tech, some of these individuals were just down higher ROI.
So now they're bouncing back.
We're seeing tech lead the index once again, but you
know, I, it's kind of funny. We've kind of shifted now to the point where you have financials,
maybe showing some weakness as well. Looking at a chart like JP Morgan, the XLF, those are kind of
bleeding down into those levels where you're like, okay, well this needs to be defended too. We can't
just bounce tech and save the index. We have to. We have to make sure that financials aren't about to slide more meaningfully. And then
I look at junk bonds, HYG, and that to me looks like it's set for a much larger move down. So
to me, it kind of checks out with the weakness that we're seeing in financials. And I do think
if we have financials putting pressure on the S&P, one it's going to be hard to break out it's going to be constraining on liquidity but I do also think
we're probably going to see tech catch up to that weakness as well.
What do you think about the banking stocks guys if like what Chimfon was saying regarding the agents. Like what if they start using the stables
and bypassing the banking system? Isn't that bearish? Lots of banking stocks. I assume not
all of them, especially not like the new fintechs that are very much integrating all of the stables but what about the large ones
i think it kind of depends right it depends my point is like i think there's gonna be like a
wild west for a little bit with agents where they're kind of just people that's where i think
ethereum benefits where people are just going to like spin up stuff and they need access it needs
a bank account and eth Ethereum provides a pretty good...
I mean, you could argue any blockchain, really,
but obviously ETH has kind of got the best tooling for it
at the moment.
I'm sure that after a certain number of years,
they'll all be incorporated into a Fed chain,
but then if there's any illegal stuff happening,
they have to be somewhat liable for it, maybe.
I don't know.
It kind of seems like there's kind of a gray area gap i think where
eth benefits the most that's my impression anyway at least for like at least until like 2030 or
something maybe a little bit before um but yeah i mean who knows who knows if any of this ai stuff
is actually gonna matter i mean all these ipos planned as well this year i think are going to
be pretty brutal for stocks i think it's going to be like the Coinbase moment when Coinbase stock launched
and crypto died. I wouldn't be surprised. The space, you know, the XAI or Anthropic or OpenAI
IPO-ing should, in my opinion, bring down a lot of the market.
I mean, I can totally envision it in my head. Obviously, it's another thing like realistically making it happen, right?
Because if we look back at the dot com,
lots of the stuff people said is going to happen has happened,
but not in 2000, but usually like a decade later, right?
And so you had the companies that, you know, ran on the hype,
then it all died
out and then it like became a reality i can totally see uh how you're gonna like tell your
agent to buy you a vacation and and you know schedule you know stuff there and book book a car
and it's gonna pay for everything and that's be super efficient. Like you as a customer will love this.
You know, you'll just, you'll be just,
you will not even care about crypto pretty much.
You'll just be like, hey agent, you know, I want to go there.
You know, this is me.
Find me stuff.
And it's going to do everything.
And it's going to be amazing for lots of people.
gonna be amazing for lots of people so i can envision this in my head but again if i go back to
So I can envision this in my head.
the uh to like the how it revolves around the prices right i think we need to go first left
curve about this so we we can foresee this ahead ease has been accumulating for the past five years that's clear from the
chart it's been going sideways between you know on with most volume between two to four k
what's likely going to happen is that this is going to become a reality
ease is probably going to pump a lot ahead ahead of this and then sometimes down the line maybe like 2032 it becomes a reality
i'm just thinking out loud of this no i think i think that's i think that's completely accurate
i just think like sure i'm when i'm talking about stocks and everything going down that's why i
think ether's going to go down as well because i think it's going to get dragged down um but yeah
i think i like end of this the next couple this whole like every job is going
to be displaced in two years it's just retarded it's absolutely stupid um but within 10 years
yeah i could see that i could see that being a thing yeah but i think where we differ you and me
uh is regarding the expectations from the price where i think it's gonna pump pretty much from here
the price where I think it's going to pump pretty much from here.
And then it's going to, like, when this becomes obvious, then it's actually going to go into
a bear market, and then it's only going to start working.
But it's going to be, like, long, long after.
But yeah, that's totally fine.
Regarding this comment, bear markets aren't this short either.
I think that's the main topic.
Like if you're going to look at the East chart, you're not in a bear market.
You are in a bearish trend, but it was in a larger sideways period.
And I think lots of people mistakenly, and obviously the situation is totally different results, right? Like shit coins in general. Yes, they've been in a bear market
since pretty much March, 2024, which is two years now, by the way, that also tells you a lot.
So, so the bear market isn't actually sure it's pretty long because it's longer than in 2022,
actually for lots of these shit coins, but for ease, it's not really in 2022 actually for lots of these shit coins but for ease it's not
really in a bear market it's been sideways and therefore you cannot treat this like down
in my opinion as a bear market
not yet i mean it went down 70 though ether's down 70%, though. Ether's down, like, 70%, though.
Oh, totally.
But, like, again, you know, just look at last year. It dropped 65%, 66% to the April lows.
67%. And in just 130 days, 140 days, it ran to 5K.
And now it's down again.
And I understand it can be confusing,
but you're technically the same price you were October 23.
Yeah.
I guess in my opinion, I just don't really care.
Maybe my thing is I just don't
really care about classifying
it as a bear market or a bull market.
I just think it's kind of just
binge it. And it could go up from here.
If it goes up from here, I'd love that because it means
we typically get good on-chain
actions, so I'd love that.
The reason
I am trying to specify it is because of this comment where
yeah yeah yeah I suppose it's a girl, Josie girl, that Josie girl but says bear markets aren't this
short either and that's why I say that this is the reason why I'm trying to classify it not as a bear market because
to me it's not a bear market and therefore
it can be this short because
again if you're going to look
if you're going to look at the
Q1 dump of last year that lasted
120 days
and right now you're technically at
168 days to the current low
so like yes it can totally be this
short if you're gonna look at 2022 bear market that was 224 days so like
yes bear markets aren't this short if you're gonna look at ease but then again if you're
gonna look at alts they've been in a bear market
since march 2024 that's two years and ease in my opinion isn't in a bear market
i think for some things to be like in a further bear market from here like
especially from a crypto standpoint i mean you've talked about this before jack is uh
i mean like if we do break down from here we are going a lot lower in crypto uh specifically majors
your stance on whether or not we're here or if that's going to be like a down the line thing
you know it's gonna i think it's gonna differ from person to person um i i don't know i i kind
of feel like i see both sides to the argument but i still don't like the 2022 comparisons for crypto
mainly because it would imply we're in the bottoming process right now for crypto and
by the time crypto entered the bottoming process in 2022 equities
were also in the bottoming process um and i don't think that equities are in the bottoming process
right now so i don't know i i'm i'm kind of going back and forth but i do i i do agree with chimp
phone that we're probably going to see u.s equities drag everything
lower later this year it's just a matter of how deep and how long that takes
i saw like a seasonality meme thing where uh it was like midterms and stuff
that's like it tends to like go down into the midterms and then bottom around the midterms and stuff that's like it tends to
like go down into the midterms
and then bottom around the midterms
I don't know how true that is
but I feel like it kind of aligns with my
general idea
I kind of expected like a Q4
bottom but I guess a lot of people think that
and maybe we never get that
but who knows
I swear that's
the biggest consensus i've seen since you know apple was promising me for 14 12k yeah exactly
so who knows but that's why it kind of it makes sense if we go up for a bit now everyone writes
that idea off and then we just die again and then that maybe would work but who knows i'm not positioned but i'm just like i said
i'm mainly cash so literally i'm i'm a pussy at the moment yeah thank you hedgelord very good
i uh i feel like we're gonna bottom before the summer at least like short term i think we find
a bottom before uh before the summer because summer everybody likes to say the summer, at least like short term, I think we find a bottom before, before the summer, because summer, everybody likes to say the summer is, you know, a period
where you should just completely check out. But I, you know, I can think back towards the last
few years, and pretty much like all but maybe one summer, which is, I would say, like the summer of
2024. You know, we had some like very aggressive moves to the upside in risk because there's just nobody like nobody sells in the summer.
So you just get like these huge outsized periods of risk on behavior.
Small caps last year in equities, obviously ETH ran from 1500 to 4K or almost 5K.
or almost 5k uh in 2023 bitcoin made that uh made that second move towards 30k and altcoins
gave really nice moves as well 2022 even in the heat of the bear market man we had that that
whole like almost mini alt season in the summer so you know i feel feel like everybody says to check out during the summer. I think it's kind of like this prime period where we just get bounces.
So I feel like I'm probably going to be bearishly inclined until the summer and then I'll be bullish for the summer and we'll kind of see where everything is trading into and out of that.
That's kind of like my plan for the year.
But I do think we're going to front run that whole like Q3, Q4 bottom.
Because especially for crypto, man, everybody has been predicting that.
You know, the Q4, the October, November.
I don't even know what date people are using.
But like the Q4, we'll buy the Q4 lows on crypto and then we'll ride off into the sunset forever.
I don't know if I can...
What if?
What if?
What if it was that easy?
Do we not feel this is a little euphoric
for a high timeframe bottom?
Like the sentiment?
I mean, it's insanity on the timeline.
I mean, they're like,
man, I told you.
I told you. It's like that bro at the
pickup game you know when you go to like the park and you're playing the pickup game with the
bros and there's like that one random guy and he's just like chucking threes from half court
and he's just air airballing every single one of them and then he hits one of them he's like man i
told you i was going to make that and you're just like what are you talking about like you know and it's like the guys that have like literally rode every single bag they
hold from 120 down to 60k and we get a bounce off the bottom and they're like man i told you we were
gonna bounce and you're just like dude what are you talking about like i don't like i don't know it's i um yeah that's that's how it feels um
i that's how it feels i've been a work yes one day it will work um a broken clock is right two
times a day um or twice a day but i mean i've been saying in the discord to everybody in the discord,
we saw over the weekend, specifically a big, big, big buyer on Coinbase coming into the market.
And I mentioned that, okay, like as long as that buyer remains within the market,
like they provided a lot of plunge protection over the weekend. Bitcoin would have gone a lot lower had Coinbase not stepped in.
And I said, okay, as long as whoever that is, whether it's Coinbase themselves or some big institution or money manager or whatever, as long as they're within the market, I mean, the bottom, at least locally speaking, is probably in.
I'm seeing equities telegraphing and move lower
with the VIX and volatility and thinking that, you know,
this is more than just some form of like, you know,
relief bounce in like the broader scheme
of a higher timeframe downtrend.
You know, I'm like, it just is what it is, right?
Well, I do not know about the timeline being euphoric i don't think so and honestly even
if it was i don't think it matters because the reality is that most people are absolutely out
of the market they are decimated whether it was 10 stands or anything before or anything after
the reality is that 90 and i think it's maybe even more,
of people would be absolutely put on the wrong side
if this was the bottom right now.
Now, I'm not saying it is yet, obviously.
No, you cannot confirm that until it gets confirmed.
But I'm saying nobody pretty much is even trying to think that this could be the bottom.
If anything, the consensus right now is, yeah, I'm going to short, you know, whatever it is, move higher into a move lower.
And yes, you have some people who think, yeah, this could be the bottom, but we are going below 60k still.
You know, we're going gonna hit like 55 or something but uh nearly
nobody can envision the possibility of this being the bottom in my opinion or even if they can they
will not and are not positioned for it so i think it's going to take more time uh to know if this is
the bottom or not i think that one we did not spend enough time at the lows for this to
be like in my opinion like to know if the lows are in i think we need more time um and then we'll
know um and it's not like it's not a price-based thing for me it's really a time-based thing i
think with the aggression and the sell-off that we had you know from the beginning of the year
until the really the beginning of february uh i just generally generally speaking thinks it's thinks it's going to take um longer
reaccumulation than what a lot of people may think um you know i'd mentioned i talked to
the discord this morning about how bottoms actually form um but you know there are people that you know again it's kind of like one of those gotcha
moments they're like oh i rode down my bags all the way and you've you know had great short trades
the entire time but now that we got to bounce since the lows haha you're wrong kind of thing
um and it's really like complacent behavior like it is extremely complacent behavior
in my opinion that again um is just very indicative of me of like a bottom not being in um at all
um you know i had mentioned and to some of the people that are commenting
um in the comments my only short position
in crypto was on Zcash. And we closed that out two days ago at 220. So I was flat on crypto.
Majority of my short exposure was in equities. Covered some of those shorts on CoreWeave
yesterday at the lows. On Tesla, I'm kind of watching. We're at about break even right now. But I mean,
Bitcoin and crypto is kind of like a no trade region for me. We hadn't really swept any of
the lows out. We hadn't swept any of the highs out. You were sitting right in the middle of the range
the other day for Bitcoin. And so if you wanted to take a long position in the middle of the range,
be my guest, be that guy that wants to take longs or shorts at the middle of the range, like be my guest, be that guy that wants to take longs or shorts at
the middle of the range. I prefer not to trade like that. And if you longed it at the middle
of the range, congratulations, good for you. Keep doing that. Let's see how your equity curve looks
like in 24 months. But at the end of the day, I think it's very, very, very important to realize,
like I said, my higher timeframe structural outlook,
like we said, if I'm looking at equities, because equities are far more important than crypto.
Everybody wants to view signal from crypto. Crypto, I could give less a damn about. The broader scale picture of where we're at, at least from a higher timeframe perspective for
the indices in particular are far more important than what Bitcoin is doing. And that's
the same for in relation to altcoins and Bitcoin. There's no signal in altcoins if Bitcoin wants to
do something. Like if Bitcoin wants to do something, like let's say Bitcoin wants to go up,
right, or down, like your altcoins, everything is derived from Bitcoin. It's just the alpha
relationship within the financial markets.
And I do think that we are in a topping process similar to what Tommy thinks for equities. Like,
I think that there's massive distribution on these charts that is occurring. You know, the framework that you can buy every 6% dip on the S&P, I think is just completely
psyop to everybody at this point. You know, I'm going to continue to remain in the camp that
I believe that they're telegraphing lower prices. I have invalidations and that's part of risk
management as a trader. And that's a beautiful thing. I have no problem flipping long Bitcoin
here targeting ADK either. I talked about that with the discord as well um you know you accept above uh some certain areas and
you know get certain structures forming i think there's fantastic long opportunity long long
opportunity presenting itself in solana and ethereum potentially up to 2500 for eth potentially
up into like 110 for solana and there's you know going to be fantastic room to the upside um
going to be fantastic room to the upside. Structure forms and you just watch and see,
but it is what it is. So that's kind of what I'm seeing in the markets.
I think the elephant in the room that absolutely nobody wants to address when it comes to high
timeframe here, they hate it, is The relative amount of US household wealth in US
equities is at all time highs and like 10% above where it was at the tech level highs.
For me, that's kind of like the single most damning thing when I'm looking at crypto and it's like we find a cycle bottom and then have another
three or four years of excess after this it's kind of difficult for me to comprehend what that looks
like right given that context like equities are already at historically stretched valuations
and I feel like the AI narrative is being it's's malleable like crypto, but it's being,
I think it's being used as a way of like trying to sigh up people into thinking that valuation,
like that these constraints are no longer constraints for the market, which is what
you see at the top of every bubble, by the way. It's always how it's a new paradigm.
So, you know, I'm just going to continue to lean into that.
We don't really see, we don't see that relative share of household wealth be so high in U.S. equities at the beginning of a bull market.
It's at the end.
So that would be what I have to say about that but you know sentiment i think i think it's going
to be it makes sense to me that it's people are still very hopeful right because we have these
narratives at the same time it's like oh ai ai money jobs right right chimp phone um we have uh
no what were you to say yeah yeah no exactly that's true that's true it's
just a literal slop takes never-ending articles and posts about money being worthless jobs being
worthless and ai is the only thing that's gonna say oh my god it's so fucking annoying it's really
never-ending the the like i can see so i think you guys have it
the same how split you probably are about ai like on one side that that's the light side
you see so many you know great things like when you think about the not sure if you guys saw the
uh a knight of the uh seven kingdoms right recently do you guys know
guys i need to watch it i it's on my list i need to watch it i'm finishing up some other things
and then i'm i'm gonna watch it it's like there is no way none of you guys see seen it but whatever
but like yeah uh it's obviously you know a tv show from the you know
game of thrones world uh the recent one and it's just been huge everyone was like yeah that's
amazing and it truly is but when you think about it it was really just six freaking episodes uh
that are 30 minutes long and it's like you get that after two years of a break,
you get six episodes of just 30 minutes.
You're like, what?
And I can see the light side of AI,
how it can so much help create these movies way faster,
perhaps, or anything.
But then the other side the dark side is like all
of this AI slope all of these like social media gurus telling you how AI is
going to replace you and it's the end of the world and it's just but that's
horrible to read to to just every day it's like the same. Here's why the end of the world is bullish for my bags without even a hint of irony.
I mean, that's literally what it is.
I mean, we're now at the point where we're trying to use something like what happened with Block last week as a bullish catalyst for the market.
Like, yeah, we're going to cut all these jobs and it's going to pump the crap out of the
market but only enough so that i can sell at much higher prices and don't worry i'm not going to be
back holding on the way down that's just kind of exactly it's all just short-term gains it's so bad
it feels like borrowed addiction almost like it is it is like jack has said earlier it's not far
off to imagine that like like the dot com
eventually it all becomes true but not in the years that people are i mean people are saying
like super intelligence by 2028 like really do we really think that's gonna happen or is it just
everyone's ipoing this year and everyone's saying it has equity in these private it's literally
gonna be elon telling you that self-driving teslas are coming this fall
since 2016 yeah yeah like i mean ai is incredible i mean i use it every day it's so good don't get
me wrong it's really really powerful but like this whole like displacing the entire job market
and changing the world and curing cancer in like three years is just unbelievable to me absolutely just
it's like when cars came out like the guys that have shoveled the horse shit you know it's like
well they had to stop shoveling shit but they just found somewhere else to to work you know
maybe it was like on the assembly line or whatever it's like you get drop job destruction but
creation at the same time like there's a whole slew of new jobs that open up um you know there's many many many places that ai can
is just going to have a very very very tough time penetrating from a uh
from that kind of perspective it honestly reminds me of of crypto four years ago, like just being real.
How crypto is going to replace the financial system and all of these rails for on and off ramping capital payments, whatever.
And most of it was just complete garbage.
Went down 99%.
And we look back now and we're like, yeah, it deserved to go down 99%.
It probably should go down another 99%.
And obviously there are going to be winners, but I think people are a little too caught
up in the speculative fervor of technology and obviously asset appreciation, the wealth
effect that that's caused.
And they're just not really able to be objective about what AI is right now, which is, I'm maybe going to be a little bit more of like
a hater on AI than most people. But like, I really, you know, we've seen these improvements
with Claude, but marginally speaking, like the chat GPT moment was the real, like, that was the
most innovative moment of the entire AI cycle in my opinion.
And everything else has been kind of like these incremental benefits or
incremental,
like these incremental improvements to the technology.
And we're just kind of like our expectations have way outpaced the reality.
I can't even get Grok to make me a good profile picture. It's an idiot. It is honestly like an idiot. Sorry, Grok. Sorry. I know my
future overlords will likely be artificial intelligence and technology, but it's like,
I don't know. I think we're just, if you know the theory of reflexivity, it's where expectations outpace the reality of price. And that's where I feel like we are with AI and where I feel like equity markets are at this point. Like the S&P, if it had traded in line with market expectations on the tech, the S&P should be like twice as high as it is right now. And I'm being dead serious when I say that.
But we haven't moved in six months.
Nobody is buying the S&P up here.
Nobody is buying NVIDIA up here.
I mean, it's just, yeah, we're at the point where like expectations are way past what the reality of the technology is.
And now eventually we're going to see that downswing in the same way that
we saw with crypto. And people are going to want to buy the dip, right? People are going to want
to buy the dip in the same way that they did in 2022. But a lot of them are going to buy the wrong
asset and get carried out. And a lot of them who are super bullish up here are not going to be
super bullish at the bottom for AI. I think we are in a secular uptrend for ai but there are
going to be discounts along the way i think you're kind of you're kind of being irrational if you
don't think that we're going to get discounts on the ai trend in my opinion
but i digress yeah yeah i don't know it's all just it's all nuts at the moment it's all crazy everyone's kind of
balled up like mad so who knows i i expected to go down though this year
i just need people to shut the up for like more than a day as well. Like that would just be brilliant as well. Like it's actually insane.
It's just a big time.
We are up one day, it's
moon, the other day we are
down and it's goblin town.
Yeah, it's just, I just, one
day just to shut the, like just
make them shut the fuck up. Like it's
so, it would be beautiful.
I will be, i will be doing victory
laps when their stocks finally fucking go down you guys remember ellie and capital yes from 2022
he was like yes i mean he was like one of the biggest bears for a long time.
Like, I'm pretty sure he was bearish for pretty much the entire uptrend in US equities.
And now he's like making fun of bears pretty much every day.
So not to single out one person, but I saw that.
I hadn't looked at his profile in probably like two years.
And then I looked at his profile last week and I was thinking to myself, well, well, well.
Well, well, well.
Saylor also coming out today saying you can buy more Bitcoin than people can sell.
Saylor's been coming out like every day for the last few weeks or for the last like two or three weeks i feel like trying to get people to buy bitcoin am i crazy for saying that i feel like he has been right
oh fully he's been i mean manic on the timeline
i guess my sailor did you say that is that sailor yeah yeah yeah he said that we can buy more bitcoin than they can sell
yeah i mean if you were like the amount of money he has on the line i think i would be
going crazy as well so yeah he's he's also got like the eyes of the world watching him and kind
of wanting him to fail so i can't imagine that he's you know i his his
brain is just fried probably about definitely actually seeing those ai pictures he posts all
the time bro's been my yeah yeah he's he's been put he's firmly been put in a microwave and
fucking scrambled that's for sure well i don't know because he's kind of got those acoustic
properties that you know make allow him to disassociate on another level i'm sure
acoustic
who's the what's the other guy tom tom lee's like the eth version of him right
yeah yeah i haven't even looked at the bmr he's insane as well like these people are just
absolutely fucking insane it's it's crazy to me
yeah i mean he's a degenerate is he korean i don't know but if he's not that's incredibly
racist of you i died wasn't i don't make any deduction from that i'm joking i'm joking uh
yeah i don't know i don't know also had deep seek are dropping a model this week does this matter
does that matter anymore i feel like it doesn't a few people were hiding so but i think the only reason deep seek mattered before is because it came out
of like nowhere whereas this time everyone's like it's coming out this week it's gonna bring the end
of stocks and it's like i don't think that's how it works buddy i really don't think it is
they straight up just lied about the number of nVIDIA GPUs they trained on last time.
So they're going to lie again.
Who is that?
The last time DeepSeek dropped the model and shot them,
they were like, oh, they trained it on like 200 GPUs.
You don't need all these GPUs.
And then it just turned out they just illegally trained them
and they're going to do the same again.
So people are going to run that same narrative and be like,
well, they used four GPUs that you can buy from eBay.
But actually they've got like a thousand trillion black world chips sitting in some mongolian field
that they're training on or something like that that's uh that's one what do you guys think about
the moves in asian markets over the last 48 hours?
Oh, yeah, the Korean market?
I mean, it makes sense, right?
CT started paying attention to it.
So as soon as CT start trying to trade other things,
I think it's that Alexander Good.
Is that his name, Alexander Good?
Yeah.
Yeah, he did that tweet, which was like,
as soon as you see CT pivoting to other markets, it's got like a two lifespan and it's true it's you is the hit rate is genuinely insane on that i think it
happened with gold in like october or whatever it was it happened to the korean stocks it's
finance listing silver at the high yeah yeah yeah yeah That was crazy.
They never miss.
The best accuracy cycle was Binance listing
something at the top.
The craziest thing I've seen Binance do
was Binance Junior.
I mean, we're trying to liquidate the children now.
What are we doing that was the
funniest thing they've ever done what did they list at the high sorry what was that silver oh
yeah yeah silver yeah yeah yeah yeah the binance jr stuff is the funniest thing they've done
you got it you got a trick because the thing is it'll train them to never trust anyone and they're
going to come out as like the best traders in the world
because of the neuroplasticity of the brain.
It's so smart.
Honestly, China, they've got a super army of children training,
and they're going to take over the markets in 20 years
when they've all grown up.
China?
Yeah, yeah, think about it.
Binance is onboarding the children to the worst market ever
so that they can train and become the best traders ever
and steal the Americans money
This is the CZ's master plan. I
Know
Vegeta tell me it ain't so no
well i was bullish on copper oh no i gotta rethink my life decisions now
Well, I was bullish on copper
would you guys buy as bet sharp link i'd rather just long ethereum honestly i think as that could outperform ease oh my god that chart
oh my yeah this is rough
i mean
i feel like that uh that pump may it's kind of like the circle chart
oh yeah i just rather long i don't know what to make of it i'd rather just long eth honestly i think it's just like the circle chart but
i think circle is finishing the rally right now around these prices
i still think circle is just playing out the coinbase uh the coinbase fractal
the ipo fractal that is
for the first time in like two or three weeks i'm kind of interested in shorting coinbase again
and dive back into it yeah it's just like these
crypto options don't really have
they're overpriced right
I don't wanna
I was saying this in the call this morning
I don't wanna harp too much on beta
is Tommy robotic or is it just me
oh no
it's very rare
but it is very rare yeah this is
it's like crypto pumping it's like what is going on
because i feel like i feel like when the market's moving down or obviously when the market's moving
higher everybody is is looking for beta that's going to outperform the alpha in either direction.
And I think if you're playing beta too heavily right now,
you're going to end up,
you might end up cucking yourself, honestly,
because like if we get the move
that I think we're going to get on a lot of these alphas,
IV is just going to cut into your profits if you're too fixated on playing the beta to the downside.
I think alphas are going to move just fine.
And the options pricing is probably going to be more important than the beta itself.
I don't know how you feel about that, Prometheus, but that's kind of what I've been noticing is that, I mean, for one, obviously options are going to be way more, they're going to be cheaper on names where the relative bull that you're going to see is going to be lower typically.
But I think we're about to see some pretty extreme bull across the market.
So I think they're just better options to be holding than explicitly seeking shorts on beta.
Yeah, no, I mean, I agree.
I kind of took a hedge out on SQQQ the other day, kind of got back above the levels that I wanted.
And the reason why I took out a hedge on SQQQ to flatten out some of my energy exposure was that because exactly to your point, I mean, you got to be very careful positioning with
options. A lot of people view them as kind of like convexity or, you know, higher leverage
levered bet on whatever it is, you know, underlying they choose. But if you're not careful and you
don't actually understand how they're priced and how they actually move um and you dive into like let's say some puts yesterday where volatility
is trading at you know what like 25 28 wherever it was at um you know those are expensive right
that is you're you're paying outside of the historical norm for the premium for whatever uh underlying it is you're
wanting to trade so because of that i want to be very very mindful you know that like and like you
should be mindful when positioning into options is to be looking for um particularly you know, compressed low volatility tickers. And if you can find those on beta
and you think that, you know, the beta has yet to really have its move in whichever direction,
you can get some extreme repricing in those options. Like, I mean, you captured Coinbase
on the move down. Like coinbase looked like it was kind
of flooring out there for a while and then um you know and kind of was compressing a little
bit around like the two where'd you catch it at 270 265 yeah basically like 270 265
basically like 270 265 i was surprised the options moved as much as they did but i guess it's pretty
big move relatively speaking so yeah yeah when you get that big blowout like that i mean you get a
massive massive massive repricing but um yeah it's interesting options are super tricky um super
tricky investment vehicles and a lot
of people just just i mean they literally gamble with them they don't they have no idea what
they're doing um but if used right they can be very very very nice payouts you're gonna let me about convexity do do it love me some convexity
i was uh you know one asset i think we can kind of take some signal from too is palantir
right which obviously gave us this really nice pump
back into 155 this morning i think uh i think that's that's to me getting ready for another
leg down as well so i think uh i think when it begins that we're probably going to see a lot
of these risk assets that have bounced probably do the same thing. Palantir got the buoy, though,
from being a defense stock now, right?
I still think the chart looks like a textbook bubble chart, though, right?
Like, we came out of the trow, euphoria.
We're in complacency right now, maybe denial.
So, yeah.
Guys, if the bottom is in, which coins would you buy right now?
Just only Hyperliquid, that's it.
I would long, I mean, I'll give my targets targets i obviously won't give the entries to the people
listening here um but i would long ethan soul ethe targeting 25 soul targeting 110 to start
we'll see how we react out of those levels i mean i first need to get confirmation on a range break on these names.
I think that is really important.
I like a Hyperliquid Long, too.
I like, you know, kind of my baby Kida.
I actually like a Manad, too, interestingly enough.
They seem to be kind of twapping it.
Manad looks pretty good.
You could probably get like a 50% to 75% move out of it.
I know Louis has been big on Monad,
but I have no idea what it is, what it does.
I haven't even checked.
I am wary.
I mean, at this point, I don't really want to buy any token that isn't
buying their own token or like company that's not buying their own token. Because most of these
things just have like ridiculous emissions still. Manad, I think the structure does not look that
bad. Ironically, it actually kind of looks like the high time frame dollar chart now that i'm looking at it
um like very very like monthly or three month chart on the dollar but i uh i just um the whole
team is leaving i don't i don't have a lot of confidence in buying a token where you have
people like the whole team is leaving at the current valuation right like
monad is it's kind of become a bit of a meme how three or four team members have all they've all
left the company as soon as their vesting cliff uh was reached have you guys you've seen those
memes right like yeah oh yeah monero is probably like a free layup if we've bottomed i don't think
it's gonna be like there is a free layup sorry i zoned out i i would say monero is probably like a
free two three four x over the next like five to ten years if it's if we're bottomed here um so it's not like great speculative
gains but i do think monero will continue to appreciate over time because i think on a
fundamental level it's just a bit on non-sovereign like storage value yeah but then there's the argument that if it's going to get brought into
like i don't know i think there's a lot of protocols that are bringing it in natively
so that's a risk to monero because if ethereum brings stealth shit and by native then people
use that i don't love the it's kind of ironic like you want to have
more places to trade these assets
but I also think you don't right like
Monero started trading with the market
when it got listed on Hyperliquid
and that I think
hurt the rally a little bit
yeah
yeah
I mean same happened with Zek as soon as zek got listed in hyper liquid it
was a local top for a bit but then it did like 7x in like a few months i bought 100k of that
at 100 and sold it for 90 because i was so tilted that uh kraken slipped me so bad and i immediately
wanted out and then it went to 700 within like a month
so they slipped you for like 10 on crack yeah on cracking for the 100k that's so bad isn't it
it's terrible and they want to ipo i so so bad for an exit too yeah
our boy barry there in the comments
he did very well off of Zcash
caught it at the lows
posting all about it
thesis and everything
Barry's talking about Nier now
yeah Nier is good
Nier is actually really good
their team can ship
whether it translates to the token is another thing
is this a Binance Cabal token? It was actually really good. Their team can ship. Whether it translates to the token is another thing.
Is this a Binance Cabal token?
I don't think so.
I think it's just people kind of... They ship a lot.
There's kind of like a super app thing
where you can trade any coin privately
across any chain.
It's pretty crazy.
Do they have a pretty large user base?
Have you looked into the metrics behind that?
Are people actually using the protocol?
Probably not. Probably no one's using it.
The tech is really good.
It's good tech, but no one
seems to use anything these days.
I remember
Pentoshi
shilling me the absolute
dog shit
on Nier tokens
in 2022.
Man, that man was shameless.
He still
is, but
we won't have sour grapes yeah we were speculators
aster had 20 active wallets last week that's that's how many of those were cz i know
How many of those were CZ?
I know.
Dude, I went on there.
Are those Aster metrics true?
I did see people say that.
I saw something like a few weeks ago
that had pretty similar numbers.
I'm assuming you could go in and check.
I mean, I wouldn't doubt it if that's the truth, to be honest. You could go in and check.
I mean, I wouldn't doubt it if that's the truth, to be honest.
I got on there, you know, use the platform one time and looks like I was watching a slideshow.
It was like, I'm never using this again.
I saw there could be a loyalty.
Stop it.
Nope.
Nope. So I just. Nope. Stop it. Nope. Nope.
Nope. Nope.
Nope.
Nope.
That's not real.
You played yourself.
Who takes one trade on Aster,
fucks himself on the next hyperliquid air drop?
I don't think that's...
They would be crazy for doing that.
That would be a bad look for them, I think.
Bad look? I think that's a great look
no no
that's like dissuading people from using
competitors that's lame as fuck
that's like something CZ would do
yeah some little
DS energy
why would you use anything other than hyperliquido
at this point?
other than like a risk standpoint
yeah no i agree i agree i mean i my friend is farming
nado or something which is on ink
but i know like there's that like that group of guys um guys that are doing that with the ink chain.
There's three protocols, right?
I forget what they even are, but they're hard shilling them right now.
Jeez. yeah i've got a drop sorry sorry boys i'm gonna you're good chip thanks for coming on man yeah it's good fun it's good fun see you guys soon all Later. It's probably a pretty good spot for us to wrap the show up, guys.
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