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👀 Bitcoin watch party
Recorded: July 2, 2025 Duration: 3:49:16Space Recording
Full Transcription
. Thank you. All right, by the way, i love that intro music they never let me play that in the mornings
i absolutely love that intro music can you guys hear me just want to confirm
yes all right it's connected to my car so there tends to be a delay
uh let me try it's about the airpods but we'll see All right. It's connected to my car, so there tends to be a delay.
Let me try. It's about the AirPods, but we'll see.
Every day, same shit.
Can you guys hear me now?
I hear you.
I heard you before.
All right, awesome.
Which one's better, the car, Bluetooth, or the AirPods?
Are they the exact same?
Which one's me?
Clearly the AirPods aren't working
because no one's replying.
Just kidding.
Are you guys there?
Yes, sir.
Brandon, you watching this?
You watching this Bitcoin?
I am. What an interesting time.
It's kind of fascinating.
There are two schools of thought here.
There's just more choppiness in the range.
Hey, Chris, can you hear him or did we go silent here?
No, I don't hear anything now.
I knew it was going to happen.
Hold on.
Now we hear you.
Come on, sorry.
How are you doing?
Yeah, I hear you.
Okay.
I might be going in and out, though.
Okay.
Yeah, can you guys hear me now? Yeah, just a you. Okay. I might be going in and out, though, but... Okay. Yeah, can you guys hear me now?
Yeah, just a little bit further, but yeah.
Okay.
The problem is Apple spent a billion dollars on CarPlay, and it still absolutely sucks.
It is the worst product in the history of products.
the worst product in the history of products.
And so I am, I'm just trying to, you know, do this,
given Apple's severe limitations in doing basic things like CarPlay,
but taking a step back.
Well, hold on, Mr. King of hyperbole.
I would say that I've never used uh carplay and i would i would bet
every bitcoin i got that twitter spaces is just as every bit dog as carplay must be if not
infinitely more i mean we have now learned that soham park maybe soham Parikh made ParPlay. Maybe he designed ParPlay and Spaces.
I wonder if Soham Parikh was involved with both ParPlay and Spaces.
It would make sense completely,
since apparently that guy is running all of the YC companies somehow on the back end.
There's one person that is involved.
By the way, if I was a VC, I would hire Sol Amparic to help me find the best deals
because clearly he's able to get access to every hot deal in the Bay Area.
It's quite impressive, actually.
Sorry.
For people that don't know Soham Parikh, look up S-O-H-A-M-P-A-R-E-K-H.
Oh, that's right.
He probably designed a search on X, which means you won't be able to find anything.
Yeah. X is dog shit too. You know what, you know what I love is when you're trying to type
somebody that you follow and they follow you, you, they don't come up. They don't feel like
exactly spell their, their handle. It's like just Twitter is so, so broken. I mean, in so many
different ways. I don't know. Like it's, it's, it's i don't know like it's it's it's not even winning
but it's like it's not dying in spite of itself i have no idea how because like if i want to look
up brandon i gotta say official and then it shows me like 35 official accounts and then i'm sitting
here being like well yeah is it official brooks is it official b brooks and next thing you know i can't find anybody it's
uh right it's a joke and right now you and i are the only people that i appear that appear on stage
to me although i know brandon's on stage is eric on stage too yeah yeah brandon's up here no no i know yeah is anybody else like noah or this ac not not that i
know okay yeah i don't know i'm just guessing because they're like the next in order so i don't
know but brandon and eric are both listeners they appear listeners to me this is just anyway i we
probably shouldn't waste i don't know why you started the space, but I just started a bitch. I just, I just, uh, you know what I'm realizing is whenever I do one of these spaces, they're all, I always get BMS that they are so much more fun than our morning spaces.
I'm not sure why, but I think people like chill Danish.
They don't like serious Danishish they don't like the version
of me that's like trying to be entertaining they just like the version of me that is ridiculous
and says the most insane things uh that i think somehow people enjoy this version way more
Somehow people enjoy this version way more.
I prefer hyperbolic Donish.
Whenever I get hyperbolic Donish is when I'm the happiest.
Well, so you like all, I'm always hyperbolic.
I know, that was a joke, man.
I get you.
You're being hyperbolic.
I appreciate it.
I was going to say the meta joke.
I like it.
I like it.
I was going to say that this is one of those, you really talk about Bitcoin in the morning.
Steven Yamada, the only reason I don't talk about Bitcoin in the morning is because if I talk about it for too long,
David Nikoski will short it.
And so it's my way of keeping your bags full.
You are welcome.
Because I would talk about Bitcoin all the time.
I will also say that if I talk about Bitcoin too much,
the XRP army gets mad at me.
They think I'm some form of like awful person.
And I have upset the XRP army recently
because I defected and sold all of my XRP publicly.
I probably shouldn't have said it publicly in hindsight,
but it was, you know,
I just think that everyone goes through the journey.
Before you know it, I'll be buying some Pepe and some Fartcoin,
and then I will finally return to my happy place, which is Bitcoin.
That's the journey we all go through towards riches,
or you just stay poor and own XRP.
And so it's just how it goes.
I mean, I will say I made a shit ton of money on XRP.
Thank you. I liked listening to will say I made a shit ton of money on XRP. Thank you.
I liked listening to you trading in public with that,
where you're like bucking all of the HODLer,
purists, Bitcoin-only, Bitcoin maxi is giving you shit.
And what did you, 10x your money or more in like a couple months yeah and and the way
people have been it's just so funny to me because people have been shitting on me on the tesla trade
who looks smart now who looks like what did you buy and it went up or something i i would assume
it went down yes yes and i bought calls and i was very i like shared on my own spaces i was like i was so
ridiculous by the way thank god i'm not like an actual broker or advisor because i must have
broken like a hundred rules uh like a hundred i literally was like hopefully none of them are
insider trading uh what what did you say i said hopefully none of them are insider trading no no
no inside dude what insider info will I have on Elon?
Even Elon doesn't know what...
You do interviews now, dude.
You've got some...
You have privileged information in some cases, I would imagine.
There is one really big one coming
that will be with somebody from a public company.
And I don't know.
The only privileged information I had, I guess i guess at some level was i was the first
show that asked arvin sernavas straight up if apple was going to buy perplexity and he didn't
answer the question and then that video clip went fucking crazy viral crazy viral and i was like
well he didn't say yes he just did he was like i can't talk about it essentially and that was like, well, he didn't say yes. He just did. He was like, I can't talk about it, essentially.
And that was like where the show really.
But the problem is you can't find that clip on X.
It's on YouTube.
I'm not even kidding.
You can't find that fucking clip.
It's so hard to find videos on X.
That is incredibly funny.
I don't even make money on that clip.
You want to hear the craziest part?
Somebody else clipped that interview
and put it on YouTube.
Oh, that's even funnier, yeah.
You can't even make money from it.
X is that bad.
And I will tell you that if we don't get
picked up by X Originals,
which is what I've been told...
Oh, shoot, I probably shouldn't say that.
You probably shouldn't say it.
Oh, too bad it's recorded.
Wait, here. Oh, wait, is this recorded? too bad it's recorded Wait here Oh wait is this recorded?
Oh it's recorded
Clip it guys clip it
I've been offered
X original shit
What is X original?
This is news to me
Well the cat's out of the bag
You might as well just go down with the ship now
Well
So X is trying to build its version of Spotify
slash Netflix slash sort of recorded videos and audio.
And we, with Uncanny Valley, because of the profile of the guests, not really because of the media in any way, but more of the profile of the guests not really because of me in any way
but more on like the profile of the guests we're able to get crazy people like ian bremer and stuff
uh which comes by the way he's amazing yeah i mean uh where i might i might go up to new york
to just meet with him and do another one because it was one of the coolest
experiences that i've had wait wait if you do if you do that dude at the end of the month we're
having a lofty party uh on july 1st yeah dude we'll take it offline but seriously you should
go to that there's gonna be some cool people at that event but let's take it offline well i was
gonna say that with the show, with originals,
it's going to, supposedly, it's going to be another tab that you can go to to watch all the originals.
And Tucker Carlson is going to be there.
I believe that's the biggest, most highest profile one.
But, you know, what's her name?
Khloe Kardashian is going to be there.
And so...
I wish there was a puke emoji
well hey you know chris chris you know darren um darren marble right yeah so darren's got an
x original with going public cool yeah that's what that is and so the issue is no one cares about x originals right
now because they're doing such a bad job of putting it together and i'm really hoping nikita
bear is going to make a big difference in the product because this is i mean they're at real
risk of losing creators i mean and folks that have, because like, you can go cross platform pretty easily.
And the only reason our show is not on YouTube directly is because there's an opportunity to be
on X Originals. And so if I get the inkling that by like, in the next few weeks, we don't get
picked up, I'm going to stop going to start cross posting on youtube and i'm like 90 sure
this gets clipped and goes everywhere it's just the search functionality on video is so bad
yeah you won't need to raise new rounds you just you just go like mr mr potato head who's the big
guy mr big potato what's the guy mr potato. Beast. Potato? What the fuck are you talking about? Mr. Beast.
Mr. Beast.
I don't know these influencers.
I love creators.
That's the funniest thing to me.
I'm a creator.
They're creating content.
I find influencers to be the more ridiculous. I don't know.
If anybody else doesn't think that that's funny,
but I think it's hilarious.
Because creators are like artists, musicians.
It's not making fucking YouTube videos. is just not i just i i'm sorry i like i will tell you what has really
surprised me chris what's really surprised me is the amount of work that goes into these videos
and these interviews and like i don't do any of it i just like study for like a couple of hours uh watch a couple of other uh things that
people put together for me and then go in and do the interviews um but the team works really hard
chris so it's really not about the person on the screen it's like the production team i will say
that like yeah that is a ton of work yeah they do a ton of work and so it's kind
of like i don't know i don't i don't care i don't care about the name i need a better name
i guess podcaster but i don't that's so lame ew that's so lame but yeah so
i don't know what it is but long short, if X doesn't get his shit together, I told Nikita, I said it and we retweeted it and we had a ton of activity, nothing, not even a reply.
Nikita's sleeping at the wheel.
Dude, he's so busy because the product sucks so much.
There's just so much work to do.
But the video portion of this platform brandon like
it's so bad it's so bad i don't get it like the live streams are awful
yeah believe me i know so uh like i said chris knows because chris used to join my spaces i used
to host spaces three four years ago two years ago ago, I don't know, our VC chats.
And recently, someone from the Twitter team reached out about the X Originals and if I was interested.
Because there's not really anybody that's doing kind of the private capital conversations.
You guys crush the public capital conversations.
But there's nobody that's really hitting private capital conversations. You guys crush the public capital conversations, but there's nobody that's
really hitting private capital conversations. And so I got hit up by some people and, um,
what you just said is, is why I was like, yeah, no, that's, it's not for me. A, I'm not a big fan
of, um, hosting stuff anymore and stuff like that. But, uh uh i just think they do a terrible job of marketing it
of putting it out there just the platform itself the actual product is terrible like you can't be
on these like is is is uh is donish was saying earlier today like don't do and no features just
don't let it crash how about that how? How about like, let's not crash every
freaking time we're on. Like that's a fair request. Or how about I saw you sent me an invite,
Donish, but what if I didn't see that you sent me an invite? I have no freaking idea that you
sent an invite. Like that's not complicated. Just have like a persistent thing on the screen that
just said you got invited. Because if you're not looking at the screen for the two seconds that that little banner goes up you don't know somebody wanted you to actually
go on stage so it's like it's just this is not a complicated stuff this is like on on f i've got
my kid here so on f u c k the platform that's all you have to do just on f u c k it's like it there's
so much amazing potential here but they just refuse to do it.
I think, yeah, I'm with you on that 100%.
I think we should bring Joe Carlisari up here and that we should debate some stuff, some shit, because I got some stuff I want to debate.
And, Donnish, we didn't get a chance to hit it this morning, but maybe tomorrow morning, I need people to talk with about this, the S1 filing of Figma and what's going on with that.
And I don't know.
I just need to debate some people on it.
So if you want to touch on it, we can while the Bitcoin watch party is going on, because
in a roundabout way, I think it all does tie in together.
But, you know, Joe, come up on stage.
Donnish, we got to talk about this S1.
Are we going to do it in the morning or are we going to do it now?
Just do it right now.
Go for it.
Okay.
So this is probably the most interesting IPO filing that we have.
that we have, if I was going to guess, that we've seen in the last, I don't know, five years or so.
Because they're actually doing really good with their numbers.
Like, their numbers actually look legitimate.
But the problem is, what is going to happen with AI? and I don't know how Figma exists as a product
with all of the other um AI products that are going on out there so their numbers hold on let's
just let me pull this up for a second to look at some of their numbers. For people that don't know what Figma is, Figma is a product design software where you can actually design
screens and wireframes.
And they have Figma AI, which is decent,
which allows you to take those wireframes
and bring them to life without code.
It's like no code, low code approaches to that.
But to Brandon's point, the concern is,
is the workflow changing completely
given that you can go one shot from prompt to screen?
And what's the one?
V0.dev is another one where they're taking front end.
So you could literally take basic screen uh you know make you can do you can use generative ai to make screens and then put
them in v0.dev and then it just auto codes it for you it's kind of crazy yeah so what what i think we're actually seeing happening here
is there's not going to be within the next year and like i'm i'm gonna be bullish ones within the
next year there's not going to be a front end or back end anymore there's no front end engineer
back end engineer none of that's going to matter anymore It's all going to tie in together to the point that all you do is like people, some people
call it vibe coding or whatever.
Like I've been an engineer before.
I've been a startup founder.
I built my own startups on without an engineer.
So I've done this stuff.
There's absolutely no difference now between a front end and a back end engineer because AI will do it all. So it's almost there's no need for Figma. that didn't go through for a plethora of reasons and now we're seeing them go public i think they're
going to pop when they go public i think it's going to absolutely pop like it's gonna it's
gonna be the same as uh who's the last one circle that went well also also i think long term that's
not going to be they also have a bitcoin a Bitcoin treasury, which is fascinating. Did you see that? They have Bitcoin.
Yes.
So that's exactly how I was tying it into Bitcoin.
Yes.
They are going public with Bitcoin on the balance sheet as they're going public, which is crazy.
So they've had Bitcoin on the balance sheet this whole time as a private company.
They kept it as a treasury asset, not because it increases valuations,
but because they thought that was the prudent thing to do.
And I think that that's kind of an interesting,
it makes me question something,
which is how many startups have Bitcoin
on the balance sheet right now?
And they just don't even talk about it.
Like I wonder in the private markets,
how many startups are doing this,
not for clout or BS or to build lending products,
but because it's just good for business.
Kind of fascinating.
But yeah, Figma is an interesting one.
I will say it will pop likely,
but that's only because every IPO gets underpriced.
The insiders can make money, right?
The bankers won't take it to market unless they know that their buddies can make money
and the investors get screwed because they have a six-month lockout period.
So it's a common tactic to go public.
That's why startup founders hate going public.
They just absolutely hate going public
because they know that the banks
are going to underprice the IPO
so they and their friends can make some money.
It's kind of like a complete sham.
Bill Gurley talks about it all the time.
And he's the goat.
Well, except for what happened with Uber.
I don't want to say anything bad about him because I'm hoping I can get him on the pot.
So, Bill Gurley, if you're listening, which would be really unusual.
Donish, did I ever tell you that he was the one who led our first round back in 99, 2000?
Bill Gurley?
Yeah.
Okay, this is a funny story.
I'll tell it very quickly.
When we were raising our first round, it was actually called, I think it was VStore when we raised that.
Our first round was $9 million.
Benchmark led it.
And we were debating between Kleiner and Benchmark because at the time, there were really only two big e-commerce companies, eBay and Amazon.
And Amazon was Kleiner and eBay was Benchmark.
And what we were building at the time was much more eBay adjacent.
So we wanted eBay and we said, so we wanted Benchmark, which was similar.
And so Bob Cagle was the one who led that.
And we said, yeah, we want Bob.
And they said, no, no, he's busy.
You guys can have this new guy, Bill.
Oh my God. Oh my God. So do you still know him? Can you get,
get him on my pod?
I am not like, no, I met him three times.
Like when he was at board meetings and stuff, I was not the founder.
My cousin was the founder. I was not the founder.
So I did not have like a big relationship with him,
but his daughter actually goes to Vassar now. So we've been, you know, like we DM every once in a
while more about like Vassar related or like maybe some tech stuff every once in a while,
but I by no means am like friends with Bill. So I don't want to be misrepresenting that at all,
but he did like, that's the funny story is that we didn't want him because nobody knew who bill
girly was in 1999 um and then not too long after that he started actually it might have been right
around when he uh invested above the crowd was like one of the early before it was even a blog
it's like a newsletter have you heard of his thing above the crowd oh yeah oh yeah yeah it's it was
like the most yeah it was the most prescient thing outside of both her Mary Meeker and her
internet trends. Those were the two big ones.
Well, there was one before that even. And that was, uh, fuck,
she spoke at my class at Vassar. What was her name? She had, um,
it was like some, it was like 2.0 or something. God, what was that?
She was also invited like very early at ican i forgot um
oh oh oh oh uh esther dyson esther dyson she had like oh yeah like 2.0 or 1.0 or something
which was like her like that was the first i mean we're talking like early 90s that was like the
first thing but you're right mary meeker and mary meeker the internet trends report like that dude and she's at big capital and i'll tell you this bond if you're hearing uh i know the
folks at bond capital if i can get my capital huh what's bond capital i don't know it um so
bond capital is a growth stage fund that has invested in some of the greatest companies ever.
And you've never heard of them, which makes them super sexy.
I love that.
I love that.
Here's the claim to fame.
The only place where you read about Mudro Ghani, who's one of the partners at Bond Capital, where, by the way, Mary Meeker is also a partner, is they're like the, I consider
them now the benchmark of growth stage. Like nobody knows them. You go to their website,
it's not very impressive. But like, if you look, go to their portfolio companies, you're like,
holy crap, I want my portfolio companies to be backed by them or my company to be backed by them.
It's, it's kind of wild.
But yeah, so the Mudrogani's claim to fame
is that he has been so successful
that him and his wife won DeGeneres' house.
That's, yeah, so Chris, you know he's good
when you're buying Ellen's house.
But yeah, so, but yeah, no.
What I was saying is,
bond capital,
Taha,
mood,
Mary,
if you're listening,
when we go out to raise series B,
just let us know.
Just let us know.
I'd love,
I'd love to hang out.
Dude, make,
make some room,
make some room in that round for our syndicate.
Oh, dude,
did you see the email I sent today about our first angels uh
summit no but i yeah it'd be interesting i'm open to it i'd love to check it out i mean if
i'm not telling you to come to chicago for it um but but it's it's uh kicking off lofty week this
year on august 11th it's gonna be at the bake of america building it's gonna be really cool but we
have 18 awesome speakers so it's gonna be a pretty good yeah we're just trying to build more angels you know we need more angels that'll be good yeah no
i think um so yeah again mood if you're in the mood let me know i would love to talk to you yeah
if you've got if you've got room for like a 10 to 25 check, you know
Through our syndicate give us give give us allocation and let us do it for founders
Seriously, we should talk about that. Yeah, that's what I know. It's just at this point
Allocation a syndicate
No, the problem now is gonna well, you know, we'll talk about it,icate no the problem now is gonna well you know we'll talk about it
but the the issue now is we actually technically don't even need to raise potentially again
so what we then do not raise but we might just to uh just out of paranoia so that we can,
because again, the goal is to grow faster.
So if we can find a route to go faster
and take more market share quickly, right?
Like being first to market also puts a level of pressure
and paranoia on you that is real.
And for us being the first,
essentially telehealth clinic company
we call them cloud clinics but we're the first telehealth clinic company it's
it's something that keeps me up at night don donish listen i i work with a ton of people
in in the health care space in the investment health care space one of my port codes just
Finished with their hundred and ten million dollar raise
Another one's finishing up on a hundred million raise
Like if you need if you're if you're looking for market share if you're looking for some any type of assistance Like yeah, I'll keep you posted
It's one of those things where I like
But I get it I get a 25K allocation.
It's funny.
I have to say something really funny, which is...
It's really, really important.
I hope if anybody's building a company, they're listening.
It's like, you know, like distribution is really important.
But in healthcare, it really is very, very difficult to get the product market fit.
But when you do, it's actually a lot easier to fundraise.
Like we went from 225k in ARR about two years ago.
But we opened our first cloud clinic three years ago.
Two years ago, we got to about 225k in ARR.
Last year, we were at three, and this year,
we're on track for 20, which is crazy. Again, the year is not over. We'll see where we actually
end up, but that's sort of like our equivalent pipeline right now and kind of what contracts
are coming in at. And so when you're looking at that, it really is important to realize
that everything feels like an overnight success, but then you take a step back and you say,
hey, how long did it take me to get to the point where we can open our first clinic?
Well, we spent about 4 million. Well, hold on. Did you describe, I've been half listening. Do
people know what cloud clinics are yet? Did you say that? Yeah, they're essentially, I mean,
Just explain that because I don't know if everybody knows what that is, but that's fucking amazing.
Well, we work with businesses that offer us as a benefit for their employees. And so you can do virtual appointments at home on your phone, but also we have physical clinics where the doctors
are actually on the screen and all your doctors are available at every location.
And so, you know, what I mean by that is the doctors are on the screen and there's a person
in the room, they're a paramedic, they grab the otoscope or the devices that we've built
with partnerships with all the medical device companies and across 70 different specialties,
your doctors can see you
at these clinics. So same clinic, all the doctors are available. So think of us as like a new kind
of healthcare system that's available at every location. And so, you know, when we first started,
we made a million mistakes, right? And product was all over the place. We were trying to do too much. We didn't really know our which.
I wanted to focus on initially Medicare
because I saw how badly my dad was treated,
but there was a significant amount of challenges there.
Also, it felt weird to have these feelings
towards like Medicare in general
when I know like we had to go upstream.
So wrong market entry, wrong product mechanic.
We wanted to do it in your home because that was really sexy during the pandemic. But then the unit
economics were awful. And so long story short, we were just making a million mistakes. And so my
whole thing was I'm not going to go buck wild until I'm sure I'm at product market fit. And so even though now the good thing is I
know how to raise money. So like we were able to raise money and execute. And we had this incredible
investor from unseen capital who unfortunately passed, but he just got us into the right rooms.
to the right rooms.
And we were able to,
him and someone called Ivor Horn,
like she was the,
she was a C-suite at Google.
So all these like great people
that were just like,
hey, don't worry.
We're just gonna keep backing you,
keep backing you,
keep backing you.
And actually it's funny
to kind of bring it full circle
to Figma.
If you actually look at Figma's growth,
it was very similar.
It took a few years,
but Zoink or whatever,
he really wanted to wait till product market fit.
And he had a bunch of metrics just like we did.
And as soon as we had product market fit,
it was like, turn on the faucet.
And then we just went, again,
from zero to 225 in one year,
from 225 to three in one year.
And now we're going from three to 20 in one year.
And it seems like, oh, my God, it's going so crazy.
But like, this is the funny, I say this in the nicest way I possibly can.
But when you have product market fit, your founder can spend an hour every morning
talking shit on Twitter and your company is still doing well. That's a sign that like you're at real
product market fit. Like that's, I take that as like a badge of honor, but I will say that our
largest potential customer ever came through Twitter. Our largest potential customer came through Twitter.
And your best investor of all time, too.
That's right.
Chris Deutsch got an allocation.
Chris, I will tell you,
there's a high likelihood
you're going to get a 10x in one year,
which is fucking wild.
I need to put a foot down here
because I'm kind of pissed off.
Because Chris got an allocation.
Chris, you know me.
Why did we not have a conversation?
This was quite a while ago.
Donish, do you remember how we met?
It was on Twitter, but do you remember what it was?
No, I don't remember.
It was during the SVB implosion. And we were both on,
no, no, you were on a space and I was DMing with you. And then I think I got on the space
and I forgot exactly what it was. We were talking about it because, I mean, we were both like
living in the middle of an absolute shit storm with, I had 30 founders that are reaching
out to me like, what do we do? I mean, I had founders in literally my house Sunday morning,
doing a sound bath with this lady. It was totally not on, uh, on purpose, but it was
the, the mindfulness coach from Kellogg was at our house. This was like a pre-scheduled thing. And we're
like, should we cancel this? I was like, hold on. There's probably never been a better time
for founders to have a mindfulness session and a sound bath than literally right now.
I've got a photo of that day.
Chris, that sounds like the most VC shit I've ever fucking heard in my goddamn face.
I am the least VC shit you'll ever meet.
You're doing sound baths and mindfulness?
You're right. You're right.bats and mindfulness? You're right.
But anyway, that's how we met.
And it was, I think, later that... It was either later that day or it was...
I think it was on Saturday.
Because Saturday was when things were...
Well, it was really bad on Sunday too.
But I believe Sunday at like 5 or 6 o'clock is when
they announced
that they were backstopping.
So, yeah.
Anyway, that's how we met. I don't know if, yeah. Anyway, that's how we met.
I don't know if you remember exactly, but that's how we met.
That's wild.
Well, I will tell you, I'm hoping that, again, for people,
Chris will tell you, I don't solicit on Twitter.
It is not the approach that I take.
We, honestly, at this point, are really hyper focused on just building a
good business and the investor i don't think investors are aren't defined at this point again
late stage is a little our growth stage is a little bit different but um dude you got to invite
up the king of tennessee he's been giving thumbs down for like the past yeah i don't know what's
and i'm really curious what he's pissed off's pissed off about okay come on king come on king tell me what's up king
what do we do what are we doing come on king i just like saying king now uh i'm also gonna
invite up o'hare he's been talking mad it's like the only thing better than the king of Tennessee
the king of Tennessee is Abe Froman the sausage king of Chicago well is that
another name for O'Hare no have you not seen please tell me you know what that's
from no I do not know what that's from? Brandon, tell Donish what Abe Froman Sausage King
of Chicago is from.
No idea, bro.
What are you talking about?
Eric? O'Hare will know.
Is O'Hare up yet?
No, O'Hare is too scared.
Okay, well, I'll tell you what it is.
I cannot believe you don't know this.
Ferris Bueller.
I cannot believe you don't know that.
I know Ferris Bueller. I cannot believe you don't know that.
I know Ferris Bueller.
Oh, damn it.
Damn it.
You're right.
Are you from an sausage king of Chicago?
That's amazing.
All right.
I need to debate some shit.
Like, where is somebody at to debate some stuff?
Hold on.
It's much fun right now.
No progress being made here. King, get up here, it. I want to see why you're putting your thumb down
Anthony i'm calling out anthony
napoletano
He looks like he wants to debate some stuff
entrepreneur investor and mentor and we've got a couple mutuals
So I I want to debate anthony. Come on. You're the next contestant. Donish is right
I am always right
There's a guy that so
There's this guy isaac who is a super nice guy but he said something that was a little
bit it was around the you guys remember the the whole eating with your hands with mom donnie and
people were like oh that's disgusting to eat rice with your hands. Oh, yeah. Yeah. And I was like, back in Chicago, by the way,
because we've already been there, done that.
Yeah, but it's funny because I was like,
I guess you eat tacos and burgers with a fork.
Must be hard being so civilized.
That's what my response was to it.
It was ridiculous.
He's like, tacos and burgers were designed to eat with your hands.
We don't live in the Paleozoic age.
And I was like, what about fried chicken?
I was like, don't get caught up with the racists.
It's not a good look on you.
And then he thought I was calling him a racist.
I was like, no, no, you know,
there's a big difference between being a racist
and doing racist shit.
And when somebody calls you out for that,
your first response should be am i being racist that
should be the first question you should ask yourself when someone says hey you're doing
something racist because like a normal person would say i probably shouldn't do the racist shit
right but his response was like you're putting the racist card and i was like well you just said
and then by the way he
doubled down and it's really and i feel bad because i feel like you know he's telling me
about his family context and he's like i can take punches but uh you know going to calling people
racist is not appropriate and so i just said sorry if i was too harsh want me to delete this tweet
because i might just delete the tweet i don't want someone to have a day over it.
in fact,
I'm going to do it anyway.
here we go.
Deleting the tweet.
It is the hellscape.
I mean,
Twitter is the hellscape,
so I'm not surprised in this conversation.
He's not a,
he's not a,
let me just delete my original tweet,
and then that way everything is...
Delete it, the tweet.
There you go.
But the...
It's funny because, like, to me, it's fine.
You know, it's fine if people say racist shit,
but I don't know.
I just...
You know what's so cool?
Maybe not cool.
I don't know if that's the right word.
I've noticed in the last year or so, I've gotten a lot less racist stuff.
I've gotten a lot less racist stuff.
But what I've also noticed is my Jewish friends, my Indian friends,
my Southeast Asian friends have gotten a lot more.
So I don't know.
I'm kind of happy that I'm not getting a lot of black.
I get called an N-word and various other things.
I used to in my DMs
quite often.
But I haven't gotten that recently.
People do call me a Pajit, which is fascinating.
I don't know what the fuck a Pajit is.
Some people will say
G because they can't even say the Pah.
They'll say...
By the way, it's not a brown word that I know.
I haven't even heard that word. They'll say G. I'm, it's not like a brown word that I know. Like, I've never even heard that word. But they'll say jeet. And I'm
like, I don't know what the fuck a jeet
is. But
apparently it's like the N-word
for brown people. And I was like,
we don't use
that word. So it's not really that good of a word.
You know what I mean? Like, it would be one thing
if there was like a brown version of the N-word so at least we can say it but like the fact that i
don't get to say it like what am i going to be like what up g like we're not going to say that
but to each other you know it does kind of sound nice though i'm not gonna lie and so maybe maybe
i can make it cool brandon maybe i can say i can make jeet cool and then next thing you know people
are upset because we own the word but dude like this is crazy like i think there's like this uh
level of hate and racism that has come across south asian people which we're not used to because
we're like doctors and accountants and shit like we're're not used to engineers. I mean, like we're not used
to the racism to be completely honest. So it's been interesting to be on that side. Cause like
there are a few people, few communities that are more racist than the Brown community.
I will, I will kind of put that out there. You know what I mean? Like my people are the ones
that dole out race, but it's silent racism. We don't do it in front of people.
We just say it in our cars.
You know what I mean?
Like our parents are just scared constantly,
just constantly fearful.
This is what happens, by the way, in the afternoon
whenever I run one of these shows.
People always are like, man, he is off the rails.
But it's the funny part.
It's much better to be off than on the rails.
That's right.
Who wants to be on the rails?
You know, in the mornings, David Dowell keeps me on track.
Oh, he does a good job.
I enjoy it.
You guys are like, who's on first base?
Who's on second?
What are those guys?
Laurel and Hardy?
You guys are like none.
That's Abbott and Costello, isn't it?
Oh, whatever.
Yes.
Abbott and Costello.
You're the white guy. You're the old white guy. You should know this. Well, I am. like none that's abit and constello isn't it oh whatever yes abit and constello or you're you're
the white guy you're the old white guy you should know this well i am yes i dude i turned 50 and
less than a month chris is not old now i'm about to be offended i am i am officially in like july
30th you can call me as old as you want when you hit 50 you're like grandpa
oh my god 50. chris what are you gonna do are you on any meds
i'm just taking like like like like a half a kilogram of creatine
have you been on hims yet right oh yeah right Right. My pronouns. Yes.
I was going to say that ultimately, uh, this tells me how old you are.
You don't even know hims. That's funny. No, I know. I was kidding. Yes.
Yes. I do know hims. It's like, it's like row, but, but like the new,
new row. That's right. That's right. Okay. You got the joke. I was like,
like, okay, you got the joke. I was like, but I was going to say that the crazy part is I have a
but I was going to say that the, um,
new concierge longevity doc. And I'm about to get my lab testing. It's going to be like a thousand
markers. Probably three of them will matter, but I'm going to go all in on the journey.
but I'm going to go all in on the journey.
He's ridiculous.
I'm spending an insane amount of money,
but he comes very well regarded.
And people are saying like,
holy shit,
like this guy's crazy and in a good way.
And so I'm kind of really interested to see,
okay,
Prometheus, you know what fuck it come
on up prometheus um and i'm about to go down this journey of just doing and of one research on
myself that my interview with brian johnson yeah the brian johnson i mean it's oh he's a chicago
guy by the way didn't he start brain tree am i yeah he started
brain tree yeah yeah yeah he went off the rails totally he is not off the rails he is on the
rails he is on the right rails you should be doing the brian johnson thing chris learn from brian
in the middle of that interview i got converted i was I was like, Oh my God, he's right. I just have to
make it to 2040. If I can make it to 2040, I could make it to 2100. And then it's not even about
anything else. It's just like LTV of life impact. I just want LTV of impact. I just want it's
a problem with here's the problem with that that there is a point of diminishing return the amount of time and energy he spends on not dying is losing life you can't
spend your whole life trying to not die and not age because you're assuming that it's not good
you're assuming it's not fulfilling if it's okay you're right a hundred percent let me let me step back if that's
fulfilling for him cool that is not fulfilling for me like you're saying that but you don't know
what he's doing no no i no i i look i played a lot of sports i've been in i'm not in i just have
four percent body fat when i was in college i know how to stay in shape i'm not doing that right now because i'm very busy with family and whatever but that that was like it was great but uh like
that's not you don't find fulfillment or at least let me rephrase that i do not find fulfillment
it's solely that like just exercising and just being like fit and help you know just so that
you can keep living longer is like, it,
it's a diminishing return. That's my, that's my opinion. And that's my,
but, but let me tell you something. I went, so
I can't talk too much about it. To be honest,
I don't even know if I can or cannot, but like,
I probably shouldn't because it felt like a closed session,
but after the interview,
which if you haven't watched...
You should have made this not recorded, dude.
I know. But fuck it.
Who cares? I'm not that
important, guys. Like, nobody
listens to me. No, no. I meant for me.
I'm super important. You don't know.
You don't know.
Well, Brian, I will say that
only one person up on stage has testified before Congress.
That's true. Brandon, I need a bow emoji
and then I'd be like. That's right. But I was going to say that the
after our
interview with Brian Johnsonson he invited us to the don't die
dinner and i can't tell you who all the people were there but like like it was la it's venice it
was who you would expect to be and uh an oscar winner was there for example like crazy people
and there was like seven people in in there and dude chris he was having amazing he was
talking about longevity he was talking about health wait i'm sorry this is brian i had a kid
thing yeah brian johnson yeah brian was having an incredible time you know If you watch the interview, he's sexually active.
He's in a healthy relationship.
He is happy.
He is, I don't know if y'all heard my question
of Brandon Johnson, but it will go down
as the single question
that I've ever asked anyone
ever. Do you guys know what that question is?
Does anybody remember?
I did not see it. Go.
Of course, you're killing me.
That's bad. investor i was gonna
say um uh i asked him i was like hey one of the best predictors of longevity is healthy
relationships do you are you in a healthy relationship? And I mentioned the Harvard study and so on. And he's like,
yes. So on our show was the first time that he said publicly that he is now in a relationship.
Then I was like, okay, sex is incredibly important for health. Are you sexually active?
And he said, yes. And I said, okay, how many times a week?
And he said, pretty much every day.
And I said, this is the first time
that you've used pretty much for anything, right?
Because he's the most measured person in the world.
But then I was like, okay, do you use condoms or do you avoid them because of microplastics
that is that is my greatest question ever and he said no i do not use condoms and i was like
because of the microplastics and he said no because i choose not to and that was my favorite brian johnson story ever
it was awesome it wait hold on you brought up something like so the happiness thing have you
heard of dr seligman at war you went to wharton so he's upenn have you heard yeah no do you know
who i'm talking about oh you should interview him he uh oh he is super fascinating he is the
pioneer behind um positive psychology he created positive psychology dude you could connect with
them in like two seconds because you've got the relationship with yeah i just i interviewed uh
what's his name ethan oh my god jesus i can't believe i've his name. Dude, Google Dr. Seligman.
Ethan Malik.
Ethan Malik.
I just interviewed him like a few weeks ago.
I don't know who that is, but Google Dr. Seligman.
He has like an awesome TED Talk too.
Ethan Malik is the head of AI for work.
Okay, but this is not happening.
You brought up like happiness, positive psychology.
One of my friends took his his class um a graduate program it was like
an executive kind of like it wasn't i don't know anyway he did it like very late in life
and he started a flavor of positive psychology called positive entrepreneurship which he was
teaching for a long time at northwestern and Kellogg. Undergrad for Northwestern and then graduated at Kellogg.
And I knew a little bit about Seligman before that.
It's very, very cool stuff.
You should really, seriously, look up Seligman UPenn.
You will like it.
You will really like it.
That would be a great interview.
Like, I don't think he does a lot of interviews too.
Chris, I'm not a very positive psychology type person
so have you ever heard of positive psychology he created it have you heard of that i've never
heard of positive psychology i i have yeah i bet you brian johnson has i bet you he has tell me
about positive psychology it sounds like kooky i can't even really like this is probably 10 years
ago when i was like i knew a little bit
more about it but just like google the ted talk if i so he did he did some like really like
kind of i think this was the guy who did um learned helplessness have you heard about the
learned helplessness where he would there were like these tests where they would like um psychology
tests that they would do on dogs where they would like just beat some
until like basically beat them into submission. And then others, like if they did something,
they would, I forgot exactly how this guy sounds awesome. He's beating dogs. No, no,
there was some, like some sketch, some like sort of checkered past. Like that was a long time. I
think it was like in the eighties maybe, or like it was a long time. I think it was in the 80s, maybe. It was a long time ago. But he
created then Positive Psychology. I feel like there was
a bridge around that. Maybe he felt like he
had to make himself more...
I don't know. I'm sounding like an idiot now because I really
cannot remember. I'm telling you, just look up
Positive Psychology, Seligman, and
U.N. It's just like the show is around
AI. And I'm literally trying
to... That's why I interviewed
Brian, too, because his entire thesis... So then what does too, because his entire thesis. Because his entire premise is that AI is going to help us live forever.
So the one thing you can do right now is not die. It's actually like one of the smartest thesis
I've ever heard around life. Oh, because if you get to a certain point,
then you'll just keep living because we're going to have whatever the... Yeah, I didn't realize that that was...
Okay, yes, I've heard that.
I haven't heard this for a while, and I didn't know that that was tied to AI, but okay, got it.
So my entire thesis is now around...
I think somebody needs to actually talk to the experts around AI instead of just the hype shit.
And so I'm just trying to talk to people.
So spoke about with Ian Bremmer about AI and war,
which I find fascinating.
What Ukraine did to Russia with nothing,
with nothing was wild.
Wait, I thought it was more with drones.
I didn't know that they were using AI.
What are they doing with AI?
Of course they were using AI because they were able to do swarms of drones,
which requires AI.
So the drones were actually, um, being like coordinated together.
So swarm, we've swarmed robots for a long time, but if you think about a drones
as flying robots, that's really the approach
that you should think about them. And so when drones in concert together, you reach an action
using AI, it's actually quite powerful. They were able to attack or destroy hundreds of millions
of dollars worth of equipment deep into the heart of Russia.
It was kind of wild. And so we spoke about the 12-day war in Iran. We talked about how Israel
has really used AI and technology to decapitate multiple proxies at this point.
And it's, I don't know,
it was one of the coolest things to talk about.
His thesis, which I love and makes so much sense,
is that we're actually at a very interesting time
where you have nation states fighting technology companies
and the technology companies are actually going to win the war.
There's a technopolar change that's occurring right now.
And we're seeing some version of it between Musk and Trump, but it's actually going to
get harder and harder and it's going to become more and more stealth because what we've seen
is the tech companies can essentially control what humans sees.
So their perception of the world is associated with that.
And now with all the technology and the convergence that's coming,
we're going to see some really interesting things.
I don't want to take away too much from the interview,
but I absolutely, it was very interesting.
I'm going to make one point and then I want to get Prometheus in,
is that in my opinion now today, tech has actually overtaken on a power scale the actual president of the United States.
And that's why I think this Elon Trump thing is very unique and interesting.
And I'm not saying that Elon Musk is more powerful than the president of the United States or that
any one individual person, but the actual companies that are doing this because we've
privatized so much do hold more power than the federal government. And if you look at things
like Palantir, if you look at Teal, if you look at Musk, if you look at just a combined entity here
of that all, of a cabal of it all,
then I think that it actually has become more powerful and is actually fighting the wars that are going on and will happen in the future.
But I'd love to get Prometheus and then I see Eric.
Yeah, go ahead, Prometheus.
We're having fun, bro. Go ahead.
Hey, Doug, thanks for having me up um no very interesting conversation and you know i've thought about the
whole eternal life thing and i've actually studied over 200 close to 300 near death post death um
experiences and people seem to describe floating above the operating table
or the car crash or what have you, which suggests that the soul seems to exist on some sort of a
quantum, you know, fluid field beyond bodily death. And, you know, people tend to describe
that it's more real on the other side of death than on this side of life.
And in the comments in the purple pill, I've linked a documentary by, I don't know if you're
familiar with Dr. Rawlings, Danish, but he was a doctor who basically treated President Reagan
and he compiled just interviews of people who died, including
atheists, by the way, who didn't believe in any of this soul stuff, if you will, but, you know,
came back believers, if you will, because they experienced something so profound. So, you know,
I actually do believe we're already eternal, having studied these sorts of cases
and looked into the neuroscience
and some of the quantum physics of some of these things.
So my faith ultimately,
I think I'm the only person on stage here
who's a believer in the Lord Jesus.
I don't know if anyone else is,
but my faith is in the almighty creator of the universe, not, you know, any particular technology or even political leader at this point.
You know, it seems to me more and more that we're living through the end times as described in scripture.
But, you know, that's just my kind of like observation of this.
Are we tripping together right now?
Like, what's going on?
I feel like we just went and do a very...
This is why the evening show needs to exist.
So that Prometheus can come up here and tell it like it is.
I love it.
You know what?
I love it.
Hell yeah.
Anytime, brother.
You know what?
Because I don't talk like this
but I do have to pivot
Eric don't get mad but Joe only has
a few moments he's a very busy young man
and I need to find out
about the big
long the big long
it sounds like
a porn show
it sounds like a porn star but I've been hearing
about the big long
uh and i have heard you and dark side going at it i've heard what's happening but dude
why are we having why can't we all just get along like what's happening joe joe well well what's happening we all should yeah we all should just get along um here's the
reality like the problem is that you know we have you and i have had many heated exchanges back and
forth and talked about a lot of things but we can be uh civil and just under you know uh respectfully
disagree and have fun like say joe you're wrong in this Joe, you're wrong in this and honest, you're wrong in this. And you don't take it personally. Some people, for whatever reason,
when you criticize their argument, they feel the need to attack you personally. They feel
the need to attack your profession, your beliefs, where you come from, say you're uneducated,
et cetera. Frankly, I, you know, I'm, I'm kind of beyond it. I'm trying to stay focused on the issues. I just gave a, I was on Dr. Mark's podcast and he, he, he just posted, I think,
some of the links from it. I gave an hour long view about my view on, on this big long thesis
and how I don't think it holds up to real scrutiny. And others have contributed similar
thoughts in this. And to me, like, I know people want to become an influencer.
They want to make a name for themselves.
They want to pioneer some big catchy phrase that will be attributed to them.
It's fine, right?
That doesn't mean I have to agree with it.
I mean, it doesn't mean I have to, like, buy into it.
And I can speak my piece about it.
So if that offends you, if that makes you think I'm bad for Bitcoin or whatever, okay.
But, you know But the problem I
have is that we constantly, we need something to talk about. So I think people sort of clinging to
these sort of hyperbolic narratives. It happens like every six months. There's some crazy new
thing we got to like attach ourselves to and redefine what is, why there's a bullish case
for Bitcoin. When everything bullish about Bitcoin has pretty much been read,
said. It's out there. There'll be slight deviations on it. There's a light, a flavor of the day,
whether it be the ETFs or the Bitcoin treasury companies, and there'll be something else,
the Asian state buying six months from now. The reality is we have a once in a lifetime asset,
and it's going to continue to do well. And we can constantly go back and forth about something to make it interesting and talk about. But in my view, there's no need for that. There's no need to create some sort of apocalyptic theory that this is all going to
unravel the financial system in six months and we'll all be under a bridge eating cat food.
I don't really see that as necessary. So I will continue to do what I do, which is I try to be
sober and sensible in my evaluation. And I'll try to think, you know, I will never say it's
impossible. And I've said this many times, like this big, long thesis that there's a secret over
the counter $300 billion short that can collapse the financial system. Sure. Maybe it's plausible.
I don't even get it, Joe, to be honest, can we just stop for a second there?
The underlying premise of it is that there are active paper trades against Bitcoin, correct?
Yeah.
By the way, just so we're clear, you take the entire known market, the actual identified market through dealers, you got less than $50 billion.
Is that going to collapse the $100 trillion system? No. So what do we pivot to? We pivot to
the dark market, the over-the-counter market, which is immeasurable by definition. And as I
analogized on a podcast recently, it's like saying, there's a boogeyman under your bed.
We can't look at it. We don't know it's there, but we think it's there and we think it can
collapse the system. Well, can you tell me how big it is? No, but from my experience on Wall Street, it's hundreds of
billions of dollars. So let's just apply that logic, right? So there's hundreds of billions
of dollars of people naked shorting Bitcoin out there, which I don't think there's any facts of
support, but let's just assume it is true. If it is true and the positions are, you're moving
against those positions, what are you going to do? It's going to take a loss. It's going to hurt your P&L, but you're going to close the positions.
You're not just going to sit.
Yeah, I was going to ask about this. I got confused the other day because I was listening.
Well, I was driving back down and so I was listening to you and Darkseid actually going at it in Fred's awesome space, and I was listening, and I was very confused because the underlying assumption
behind the big long thesis, again,
maybe it's just that I don't understand enough
about what happens outside of the traditional markets,
but the underlying thesis is that somebody
is going to have to pay the piper.
No, the underlying thesis is this.
Because of the finite nature, and again, I'm trying to steel man the other is this because of the finite nature and again i'm trying
to steel man the other other side because the finite nature of bitcoin he keeps her opinions
because the finite nature of bitcoin unlike the game stop analogy which i think is a really poor
analogy for what what is happening what would happen theoretically in bitcoin unlike the game
stop analogy where they shut off the buy button and turned off and had told the company to issue additional shares that with Bitcoin, you can't do that because there's a finite amount of Bitcoin.
Nobody can print more Bitcoin. So that's going to cause some massive issue. Well, first off,
that's wrong. Exchanges go down all the time during moments of high volatility. Number two,
it's wrong because most of the overcounted derivatives, including the ones my firm
writes, they're cash settled, just like the CME futures.
They're cash settled.
So the dark thesis is that they're not going to be enough willing sellers to go out in
the marketplace.
Well, the number three reason why I think that's wrong is that at some price, they're
going to clear it, right?
Exactly.
At some point.
I was like, we're seeing it right now, Joe.
Yeah.
At some point, Fred's going to be like, yeah, I'll probably take 750 grand for a big price.
But he's making the argument that at some point it's only
HODLers. Isn't that the idea?
Which is not true.
It's not true.
I'm not arguing. I'm saying that is
the thesis.
It's just really...
At what point,
Jared, do you think...
Because it's not well
enunciated.
It's not clear what the thesis is.
It's sort of like there is this short that will happen. If you know, you know.
And it's like complete.
And if you say, okay, well, what evidence?
Where is this massive short?
Well, I know for my 30 years on Wall Street, it's there.
It always is there, right?
Yeah, but it isn't always there.
That's the reason why it's so confusing is because who would be dumb enough to do that in this current environment to do naked shorting of an asset that has continued to rise at the rate that it's been rising?
That's the part that I'm not understanding.
With hundreds of billions of dollars.
And by the way, it's so big that it's going to collapse the fiat system.
Joe, it's too volatile for someone to do that.
It's actually like it would be insanity for somebody to stand in front of this.
And again, if there was any proof, that's the part that I'm getting a little bit tripped up on.
Is that like, hey, even if he said, I've been talking to people on the street.
There's a bunch of people that are doing
this maybe he could connect it back to the treasury companies and say well donish look
look just just as a simple uh anecdote okay you know the james winn guy who's opening up those
massive positions oh yeah okay okay okay do you know do you know why he was doing that on open
markets because no other actor is going to give somebody that big of a position on an OTC level.
They won't do it.
If you want that big of a position, you're going to have to go through the major exchanges
or the offshore markets, the deribits, et cetera.
I think it was using Hyperledger or whatever it is.
So you can't get that in an OTC desk.
You can't get that, Fred, in an OTC desk right now.
They're not going to write you you know a hundred billion dollar position
you know i i'm just very confused because dark side is usually like i mean he's not i wouldn't
consider no one would call him like a sober thinker but it's more he's usually like pretty
logical about these things that's why i'm a little bit confused. I don't want to misrepresent.
Here, let's just take this big long thing aside.
I think there's a general thesis that,
and this has been the case at least for the last year,
that we are about to hit some imminent sort of asymptotic curve where we just go, no, no offer for any Bitcoin at any price. And the curve
just goes hockey stick up and we get to a million. That is sort of the general theory of, and how we
get there, well, it might be a big print, it might be hyperinflation, it might be a big print it might be hyperinflation it might be you know some naked
short that's being done otc but i really think the one thing i know about looking at this asset
and looking at the power law is that bitcoin does not operate like this you know it really doesn't
it's a whole other beast fred it's it there's nothing previous that we can compare it to.
Well, but right now, Fred, the truth is we're actually seeing the opposite right now, aren't we?
I mean, these treasury companies, because they're monetizing the volatility, by definition, they're short volatility.
By definition.
The marketer strategy is at the same price it was at.
Exactly.
Actually a little lower than where it was in
november right exactly so it's amazing to me that on one hand you have the discussion about
something that's just going to go absolutely berserk and disrupt the entire financial system
and meanwhile actually it's the same place it was seven months ago. But Fred, just, you know why?
Because there's OG sellers.
I mean, I said this to you back in November.
That is exactly right, Joe.
Here's the thing.
The thing is, and that's what Matthew Misinskas and Checkmady have proven, right?
Is that basically there are OG sellers and there always will be og sellers it's not like
they're there there's a price at which there are no more sellers they're all i have i have
multiple friends that are not as die hard about bitcoin in real life okay at 200 250 000 bitcoin
they're sitting on you know multiple seven figures worth of bitcoin you honestly believe there's not
going to be sellers in that market i mean i can i mean i i think that i will be a seller in that market you know yeah
it's just it's just crazy because look here's the thing people don't live forever we don't and so
you missed that fred we were just talking about living forever okay maybe maybe maybe that's
possible eventually i don't know who knows but we
don't live that long and so right if you make it to 2040 you're gonna live forever okay if well
okay according to peter diamante longevity escape velocity fred okay yeah maybe maybe but you're also
might get hit by a bus okay you know so you know that that hitting getting hit by a bus is very possible. Okay, so
Or you may take Indian Airlines, you know, and you go down
I mean, I'm so you can take all the longevity pills you want and if you take that wrong Indian Airlines flight
It doesn't really help you very much. Okay Okay. Or literally any Boeing plane. That's such a dark joke, but it's so good.
I'm sorry I'm laughing at it for my fellow brown people.
I apologize.
No, Fred, you're making that joke.
I'm not allowed to laugh at that, Fred.
Fred, that's not okay for a brown person to laugh at the Indian Airlines joke.
I'm just saying it out loud.
Wait, do you guys see it?
Eric's had his hand up for at least the past half century.
I just want to make sure other people see it. Yes, yes you see it eric go ahead sir okay well my intervention was when you go back
to uh the debate between tech and the presidency or the political power and tech is indeed getting
stronger and that's why i made the comment last time on the space that elon musk is so crucial
now to the united states not so much because of neural link or tesla but because of space text
you have to understand that the wire machine is extreme is the most powerful lobby in the u.s
yeah and the spacex rocket starship if it is so critical to the U.S., if it were to fall into any other country's hands, that thing is far more powerful than ICBM.
It would be the biggest ICBM in history.
And it's very maneuverable, can go back and forth.
It is the biggest danger to the U.S. if that was armed with so many different warheads.
So when you look at today, you know, you guys all know the founder of Telegram,
Pavel Durov, right?
Citizenship matters
and forced migration
when you're in the crosshair
of the war machine matters.
He had to move to Dubai.
Then France approached him
and gave him a citizenship
to try and lure him in.
He thought France would be okay
unlike the US.
And then the next time
he came to the Bourget Airport,
which is a small private airport near Paris,
they literally arrested him
just because they want to control his Telegram platform.
Now, Elon has both Twitter and SpaceX,
two critical things that can get him in the crosshairs.
So we all remember how Trump had to fight
all the high-tech companies last time in January 2020.
And he still remembers that.
And the showdown, if he goes against Elon Musk and if he does like the because I don't believe Trump himself, you know,
he might out of anger, say, and do a little bit and then backtrack, you know, Trump's personality.
But the war machine at some point might intervene there.
And if they forced Elon Musk out, where can he go?
I don't think they will, right?
They won't.
Yeah, it just doesn't happen.
You have to remember when your life is at stake, Danish,
nobody cares about you.
Oh, God bless America.
I just found America.
Take it out.
Pavel Zhivov could care less right now.
The same thing for Elon Musk.
Yeah, but Elon's not in danger.
Elon's not in danger.
He's fine.
He's too powerful.
Okay.
I want to go back to the big long thesis.
That's okay, because I do want to...
Thomas is up here now.
Hey, Thomas.
I was going to say, you know, Tom,
I got to say we we've been talking
about the big long thesis and i i will tell you i don't have a horse in this race i just don't
know enough and i kind of like uh the fact that we're having this discussion but it i just don't
get it and so uh and I don't want to,
like, you know,
I'm not, like,
this is not a shit on dark side space,
as you know,
like, I really respect him.
I was actually talking about that earlier.
But I just,
I don't get the thesis.
I really don't get it.
Like,
is the underlying thesis,
again,
I'm going to say it,
and then you can tell me,
no, Danish, you're wrong,
which is good,
because that means I'm going to learn.
But it's a thesis that there is an unknown quantity but very large quantity of
naked short sellers that are sitting at the sidelines when they're when they get blown up
there will be nobody to sell the bitcoin to cover and so we're going to see an exponential rise in the value of bitcoin because no sellers are going to enter or not enough sellers are going to enter
the market and then so it'll be like game stop but worse because you can't print more bitcoin and you
can't um you can't stop the buy button is that that essentially, I just want to make sure
I'm actually capturing what I'm saying.
I would say,
I would bookend the paradigms
to say that there is,
and I'll abstract it
so it doesn't get technical
around naked short selling
and market makers
and what they're doing.
There's a paradigm that says
that the current fiat system
is going to explode.
It's going to blow up.
And I would put people like Larry Lepard in that category.
Can you explain?
I've heard Larry Lepard.
But Larry Lepard doesn't say it's going to blow up all at once, right?
Or does he?
Does he say it's going to happen very quickly?
Well, I mean, I've heard him say a few things,
but I don't think he thinks it's going to happen in 2025.
I think he probably thinks it's going to happen by 2030, if I had to guess.
The big print.
The big print.
Big print and the big long.
Yeah.
But there's a view that our current fiat system collapses sooner.
Then there's a view that our current system sustains for a period of decades.
I'll put Joe Carlos Sari in that category,
that he thinks that the dollar and Bitcoin coexist,
and coexist peacefully, by the way,
over the course of the next two couple of decades.
So I think, look, I'm open to both sides of the spectrum,
but I would probably lean towards,
I don't think it's sustainable for decades.
I'm sorry, I want to understand when you say it's not sustainable,
what does that mean?
Because right now we're about to make it
way more sustainable with stablecoins.
I mean, I'm sure you're seeing
what's happening with stablecoins right now.
I think if we could do an architecture
where Bitcoin is a settlement layer for bank reserves and stable coins linked to the U.S. dollar are the transactional tokens that are settled at the Bitcoin layer, where essentially Bitcoin becomes a reserve status for the banking system, then I think you could go for decades i think that scenario plays
out that's actually like what's happening as we speak so i'm a bit confused no no so no it's it's
a it's a question of can you can you believe multiple things simultaneously that are that
are in conflict i i do all the time i consider all all possibilities. But what's more probable? That's the real question.
Right now, I would say that the hybrid models
can't believe them both happening.
That doesn't make any sense.
If you had to guess, at what point do you think
that Bitcoin becomes a settlement layer?
I'm just curious.
Oh, Bitcoin doesn't become the settlement layer.
He's saying that...
No, no, Tom, please correct me.
But he was saying the stable coins...
He's saying it's not a medium of exchange.
Tom's just saying settlement layer between banks.
That's what he's alluding to.
Oh, I'm sorry.
He's saying that the dollar remains the dominant medium of exchange in the world.
Yeah, I think...
Exactly.
Joe, I think that's the answer to your question.
That's the most probable outcome over the next few years.
Again, the issue is, can people consider a highly probabilistic stasis that we just
described, but also consider at the same time the possibility of it blowing up at some point?
And if that I can.
I consider everything, even though they're in conflict.
And the issue that I'm trying to understand is if it's going to blow up,
what are the early indicators that would lead one to think that,
oh, my God, this might be coming?
Can we talk about that?
I think there's very clear things we can point to, okay?
Number one, serious, repeated problems with the treasury market.
Problems that, you know, the treasuries are effectively going no bid.
That would have to be a necessary condition.
And if you're having treasuries going no bid, I would imagine you have numerous other sovereigns
have way worse problems than the treasury market.
So the sovereign debts across the world are really struggling to fund themselves.
Now, I would submit to you there's almost no evidence of that.
I won't say no evidence.
I would say almost no evidence of that currently.
Number two hallmark of it, I think, is that you have a complete erosion of the fiction, which we already know is kind of a fiction,
of the independent central bank.
We're moving closer to that with the idea that Donish is all over,
which is correct, like we want to pop it in there on the Fed chair that's going to basically just do whatever we want on the monetary side
to support our fiscal addiction.
Oh, man, Joe, I finally beat you at something.
First time ever.
Well, I mean, listen, what I'm saying is like we're creeping ever towards that.
And I think we've been creeping towards that really since pre-COVID.
This merger of Treasury and Fed and doing away with an independent central bank.
That has kept the system together.
The independent central bank, I think, is a necessary condition for the plates to keep spinning.
And then number three, Thomas, which I think is really critical, is if you get to a point where your interest is exceeding your growth rate.
That's the thing we keep talking about repeatedly. The R is greater than G. That comes from the
Boston Consulting Group study of sovereign debt crisis. Sovereign debt crisis, just for anyone
who's trying to catch up, the hallmark is not really a debt to the GDP level. It's not just
the absolute level of the debt to the growth level. It's not just the absolute level of the
debt to the growth engine. It's where your financing costs exceed your growth rate.
Because if your growth rate exceeds your financing costs, you're on a glide path.
You're not really, you know, like, for example, our debt to GDP level has actually decreased
since 2020, even though we're spending massive amounts of stimulus, because our growth rate
has been really high. Growth gets you a lot of allowances.
So those are the three things. And if you start eroding those three things, that's really
problematic. So the one index I look at for the first point you made, which is a failing bond
market, is the move index. And typically, I would say that the move index is yellow-red at 150.
Right now, it's at 90.
So there's no indication at this point that the bond market is not functioning.
Look at spreads.
Look at credit spreads.
I mean, the credit spreads have been really tight in recent years.
So, again, you asked, Joe, what's more probabilistic? I would say it's highly probable that nothing changes and that the dollar and Bitcoin coexist peacefully for a period of time.
reasons. One is, it's less about the monetary elements of Bitcoin and the US dollars position
and fiscal and monetary. It has a lot more to do with AI transforming society and the underlying
elements of society that change the underlying economics that drive these metrics. So I just,
I'm a believer, and again, I'm probably, and Joe, you just know this
from our, lots of our conversations. I'm probably somebody who is looking for the change faster than
it's probably going to happen. So I'll just admit that bias. I think we all want change, right? We
all want something different. That's why we're all talking about Bitcoin all the time. But
the question is, is wishful thinking overcome that bias? Is that clouding
our judgment as to how quickly this happens? So as it relates to 2025 behaviors, I think
this is a thought exercise alone. There's nothing you should do differently because you might
believe that it might blow up someday because it's not going to blow up in the short term. So
there's nothing to do this year. We look at this stuff every day. We can reevaluate a year from now and see, are we closer
to a blow up or not? I don't think it shows up overnight. It might show up quickly, but it's not
going to show up tomorrow. I just don't think it's going to play that way. So yeah, I entertain the
idea because it's fascinating to me that it blows up.
I think it ties into a lot of anthropological stuff, political shifts, a lot of things that I find interesting, especially the AI domain.
And I'm just looking for what are the early indicators.
Now, as a hedge, I think people, if they have their Bitcoin and they have everything in the TradFi system, loan exchanges or through proxies like ETFs, I do think it makes sense to have some Bitcoin for you to benefit from the participation of monetizing your stack a little
bit, either through Bitcoin loans or something like that. So I think, but you got to have enough
to reconstitute. If the system ever does blow up, pick a number. What is that? 10, 20% of your
holding should be sitting. I don't follow this logic, just to be clear. Let's just assume for
the sake of argument, the system blows up tomorrow
okay and i don't care i would say the same thing about gold is it what about bitcoin
the system blows up what does that mean that means that there's a financial contagion that is just
wreck the financial system banks cannot open credit cannot flow what do you have in that
scenario you have command and control you have we're taking over this bank we're nationalizing
it we're taking over these investment firms we're taking over this bank. We're nationalizing it. We're taking over these investment firms.
We're taking over all these entities.
So your ability at that point with Bitcoin is, okay, I'm going to engage in peer-to-peer
transactions with guys to buy gasoline.
I'm going to show up at the Amco.
I'm going to show up at the Shell, and I fill up my gas tank.
I'm going to wire you some Bitcoin right now.
And they're going to look at you like you're crazy.
They're going to say, what are you talking about?
Bitcoin?
I don't even have a wallet. I don't even know what that is,
Thomas. Yeah, there's no utility of cold storage in a Mad Max scenario. The utility is if there's a reconstituted system through some kind of a reset. So if there's somehow a cash settlement of ETFs in a force majeure situation, and then there's a haircut on all that to rebalance the system in a crisis.
And again, we're talking –
But aren't you assuming that Bitcoin is not worth $1,000 at that point?
I mean like in that collapse of the system?
I mean like where are you getting the bid that you'll be able to convert this for something of value in that system where really ammo and bullets are, you know, those are probably the primary currency you want.
I just don't get it.
And the reconstituted system, they're rewriting the rules on everything, including your ability.
I don't think that's a really great argument that Tom's making for self-custody.
But I do think there are really good arguments.
Sure.
Of course. I would say, you know, the ability to potentially leave the country, okay, and take your money
with you is a very good argument.
The ability to fight a potential really bad and unjust lawsuit might be a good argument. The ability to take money away from a ranting mad ex-wife
who is out to get you, that might be an argument. There's all kinds of arguments for why.
And then I would add another thing that Tom said, the ability to access the DeFi system,
Tom said, the ability to access the DeFi system, not the peer-to-peer payment system, but the
ability to use Bitcoin on F for Bitcoin lending or for any other thing, even converting it into
Ethereum-wrapped Bitcoin and dealing with DeFi that way, but the ability to use DeFi to access
loans or to make loans or to do other things.
So I think there is a lot of reason why you would want,
it's a good idea to have money outside of cash settled,
cash, not settled, but yeah.
Yeah, and if you're-
There's times when you could be debanked.
You know, Simon Dixon was in that debate you had
with Gary Cardone yesterday, Joe.
I thought he articulated very well
why having self-custody and being outside the system was important to him and his arc. He's
been in a situation where he's gotten upside down with the banking system and it's affected his
personal life and his business. So having Bitcoin allowed him to weather some of those storms.
So at some level, you have to decide, are you in your personal situation?
And again, it's different for people outside the U.S., but in the U.S., you have to think
through what is your situation?
What are you accomplishing with cold storage?
Other than things that you said, like leaving the country and all those things.
I'm 61.
So I could technically want to leave the country at some point.
But I have family here.
I have friends.
I have connections.
Where am I going?
Am I going to go to El Salvador?
Am I going to go to France?
Where am I going to go?
And why am I going to go?
And what am I going to go to France? Where am I going to go? And why am I going to go? And what am I going to leave behind? So to me, that's more of a less than a monetary situation. There's a lot to go with
that. And I have these conversations with my business partner and he thinks cold storage is
absolutely insane to do that. He goes, if we have a problem that where my Fidelity or
my BlackRock accounts don't work, I've got different problems.
I'm not worried about cold storage.
I don't know about all that.
Fred brought up some points.
I mean, if you get stuck in a divorce with a crazy wife, for example, and they go ahead for some reason and freeze your accounts, there are situations where cold storage is king.
I just don't understand this notion of it in a centralized custodian and even
even staking things like staking and lending people have ptsc from 2021 i would much rather
do wrap bitcoin stick it into ave borrow against it and be responsible for my own debt
no i tell me more about wrap bitcoin sorry just because i'm learning
we shifted the whole topic you i i don't disagree that cold surge Bitcoin has used a ton of optionality,
but that's very different from it being useful in a collapse of the system type situation.
That's what we were talking about, Thomas.
I would agree that in a complete Mad Max scenario,
Bitcoin is probably not going to be the...
People are going to revert to something
like bullets or you know guns and ammo or something like that as the means of exchange you know i i i
i don't think people are going to be you know bringing nodes you know on the mad max you know
no obviously not but you know generally he said something really significant i thought which is that the united
states he's he said is the last best hope for freedom for the whole world you know thomas was
asking where where will i go right i i truly believe that without the united states in the
world in its um you know best form and you guys you know like i'm not i'm not trying to suck up
to america here i'm in britain and i can tell you for a fact that it sucks to have a weak
ass leader like here Starmer who's also equally corrupt but you know like in
order to avoid the Mad Max scenario gentlemen we need to become true leaders
of our age okay I'm you guys here on stage,
you guys are the next generation of Fords,
industrialists who can actually drive
the kind of change and innovation that our...
Everyone except O'Hare.
Everyone except O'Hare.
Sorry, keep on.
Yeah, O'Hare definitely, dude.
Sorry I included him in the budget.
But, you know, aside from O'Hare,
you know, all of us here to whatever degree i believe listen like considering how messed up so many
other parts of the world is we have the privilege and responsibility gentlemen to pioneer what true
like idyllic society can look like and i know know utopia is a word people don't like using
these days, but why the hell not?
You know, like, I'm sorry, like we've had two hearings
in Congress where everyone was disclosed to the fact
that we have zero point field energy devices
that are able to move through the speed of, you know,
like that beats any, you
know, supersonic aircraft that the military has, or at least it discloses it has.
Bro, you gotta give me a heads up before we start tripping together.
Oh yeah. Okay, fine. All I'm saying is, all I'm saying is that look, it's wonderful that we're
considering all the ramifications of the Bitcoinization of society that we're seeing.
But honestly, I don't know about you, Danesh, because I hear you guys talk all the time.
All right. But I swear, like if you use one fraction of that intellectual firepower that all of you guys possess to actually drive the kind of change that we need in society like you
guys could do phenomenal things that like together we can do phenomenal things like the world has
never seen before you know to me that excites me way more than freaking bitcoin price action which
at this point i feel like we've talked to death but anyway that's just my rant for the night
okay on that note i want to learn about rapid i still don't get it and i don't know why everybody
like why the because if the trump sons are investing in it thank you prometheus i didn't
hear what you said in wrapped bitcoin it's It's a thing. I have no idea.
Oh, LOL.
Different versions of it. You said the Trump sons are investing in WBTC or like a wrapped Bitcoin?
Yeah, yeah, WBTC through Liberty 5.
I mean, it's just a one-to-one ERC20 token that's on Ethereum.
You have a company like BitGo that you send your btc to they hold
it as a custodian in exchange they give you uh wrap btc which is the rc version and then now
you can play in the ethereum sandbox defy and all that good stuff but no why would you give custody
to somebody else because i mean because it's like But it's sufficiently decentralized.
The way that it gets multi-sigs,
and I don't know the exact nuances of it.
I can tell you what exactly it is.
I'm happy to do it.
BitGo is not decentralized at all.
It is a single custodian.
It is like Coinbase.
They are the custodian of WBTC, although they have now added Justin Sun as somewhat of one of their attestors, signers, et cetera, which does not make me feel that great.
but anyways it's very centralized and you can't actually get wbtc by going to bitgo and saying
But anyways, it's very centralized.
here i've got some btc i'd like to turn it into wbtc that's not the way it works you used to be
able to go to ren ren btc yeah well that went bankrupt that one went bankrupt that's that's
that was actually absorbed by ftx and that went bankrupt in FTX. So that's no longer available. Now, the problem
with WBTC, other than the fact that you have to buy it and you have to buy it off market
by somebody who has it for your BTC, and the spread's about 1% each way. So you're going to
spend 1% getting the WBTC and then one percent back getting your btc
so it's an expensive uh what the fuck why are people doing this i'm so confused like what's
the he's probably get to it but go ahead fred i'll tell you why i'm sorry fred go ahead yeah well i
mean i think noah can fill in the gaps but look once you're on wbtc you're in the native kind of world of Ethereum DeFi, right? And now you can kind of go
between, you can take out loans against your WBTC. You can, you know, you can earn yield on
your WBTC. You can do a lot of stuff on WBTC. I'll give you, I'll give you an example, Donish.
It's November 4th and November 5th, and you think Donald Trump's about to win
Bitcoin's at like whatever, 50. I don't know what it was at exactly. You take your million dollars
of the Bitcoin, you plug it into Abe, you borrow another $500,000 of the Bitcoin, and you buy more
Bitcoin, and you make, I don't know, you double your money over the course of a few months.
So I mean, I know I'm not recommending that.
That's not why the majority of people use it guys you're not answering questions it's very simple okay
fred is right in part you need to play in the ethereum sandbox with an asset right so you have
a uh basically a baseline of what you're trying to outperform and as we know a lot of the alt
corners what they're trying to do is they're trying to outperform Bitcoin. They're trying to increase their Bitcoin stack.
So what they'll do, including some of my clients, they will basically trade back and forth in the ETH sandbox to maximize their Bitcoin.
Now, to do that, right, what you need to do is you need to have the baseline.
Unlike, you know, the trading pairs that are against dollars, they're going back and forth in and out of the Bitcoin move versus the altcoin.
So they're trying to time these cycles where alts quote unquote run and Bitcoin runs, right?
They don't always run together.
Sometimes they do, but sometimes Bitcoin is making a move and the alts are just staying stagnant or flat.
So what you're trying to do is you're trying to develop your baseline for the same reason the tether stablecoins exist,
because you're moving back and forth between dollars versus the stables these folks are trying
to maximize their bitcoin holding so that gives them an eth on chain proxy for the bitcoin price
they're saying like well this represents this amount of bitcoin on east so i can stay constant
with the baseline for performance does that make sense that's yeah but just right that's what is one example and that's mainly what it was used for prior to 2020. um it is also used a lot
in d5 and one of the ways that people use it is by leveraging leveraging it and buying other
altcoins or buying more bitcoin interesting so like essentially when you take your bitcoin
and put it in wrap bitcoin your goal is to outperform bitcoin with whatever
thing you do your goal is the your goal is to literally either borrow against your bitcoin
and get something else get another coin yeah you can or tether that you can maybe
or usdc that you can then swap for another coin so you can then play in some other coin or you can use it to get some
a very small amount of yield on your bitcoin you can actually get you so the yields here but just
just think of it from a trader's perspective donish if i'm trading in all these worthless
you know tokens and i've made money i have two options at that point i want to keep it on chain
right i don't want to go to fiat i want to go back to fiat race i can either tether out i can go to as they used to say go to it go to a stable coin or i can go
to bitcoin which is what my object was all along i want to have a bitcoin uh you know a big bitcoin
i was talking to one of these d-jents today quite big uh following on twitter the guy's name is
thread guy you can check him out he's got you know he's got a he's a big youtube probably the one of the biggest youtubers right now so i i spend a half an hour
he's hilarious man the guy's funny he is pretty funny he is pretty funny so anyways we were
talking and uh he goes i i go so how much bitcoin do you just we just spread you know i'm kind of a
maxing myself i go really i go i go what's your percentage? He goes, 75% Bitcoin. And I'm like,
okay, so basically what you're doing, Fred, guys, you're making all these plays in these extremely
low liquidity meme coins and everything else. And then when you make some money, you put it
into Bitcoin. Is that what you do? And you go, yeah, exactly right, Fred, 100%. So that's kind of what they're doing, right?
So if you're in the Ethereum world, right, you basically want to cash out to Bitcoin.
And that's kind of what to Joe's world, right?
It's always been about stacking stats.
Like, I mean, most guys that were initially into Bitcoin that got into altcoins, it's
about creating more stats with less time.
Right.
So this wrapped Bitcoin is a form of Bitcoin in that Ethereum world. And there actually
is now a couple on Solana, right, that are starting. And those ones, one of the ones I'm
sort of excited about is this thing called Zeus, where that thing you actually can take bitcoin and wrap it into zeus bitcoin on solana
and you don't pay one percent so you can just yeah trustless do in and out that's sort of
well once it's on sold just to connect the dots here donish like say i have this wrapped bitcoin
on soul okay on the soul chain that allows me easy frictionless
swapping with like you know the millions solana coins whereas with bitcoin if i have bitcoin
just native bitcoin i can't do that even phantom like phantom apple that's interesting phantom
won't let you swap and they're begging just to be just to be 100 clear the value of my total bag,
it's like sitting alongside that I can use to play,
is tied to the Bitcoin that I came in with.
Correct.
So it's not tied to the value of Solana.
Correct.
Jesus, that's so interesting.
And generally speaking, it's one-to-one.
That's so interesting.
I have seen it slip, Dennis.
I've seen it slip.
I've seen it slip as much as 3% or 4%, okay?
So there are times when people wonder,
is BitGo fully collateralized?
Are they holding the bags?
Is there some problem there or not?
Or is it just liquidity?
It's just a fluke.
Or it could be.
And look, I've seen USDC slip too, right?
USDC, I've seen it trade for 95 cents on the dollar.
USDC.
It went lower than that even. It took my 20, 23. Yeah.
Yeah. No. So I remember 2018,
I picked up tethers for like 79 cents or 80 cents because there was all this
fight about tether was going out. I was able to buy tethers for like 78 cents
on Binance.
There's also,
you make the fail stablecoins,
CPEG like that,
I mean, I wouldn't hate your portfolio,
but it's a safer trade,
or at least in my anecdotal experience.
Wrap Bitcoin also has tax issues for US citizens.
So the act of wrapping, I believe,
is a taxable event.
What's interesting is I think,
I'm not sure, maybe joe knows that if you have
custodial bitcoin and the custodian wraps it for you uh like on what they're doing on coinbase
for uh bitcoin loans that's not taxable that's one of the reasons fred that i haven't like so
i've wanted to go back to bitcoin and that's one of the reasons i haven't because like you said
ren doesn't work anymore and so you have to go to SIX and you have to swap one for one. And I
don't want to take the tax hit. I would not recommend taking the exchange rate hit of 1%
per way to do it. But look, I think a lot of this know, we're kind of early days. I think that there will be much better ways.
I will.
I'm 100% sure of it.
There will be much better ways to actually do the same kind of things on regular Bitcoin
without actually wrapping it.
Fred, are you doing that with Libre?
On Libre, you guys aren't.
Yeah, so Ben and I have built this very complicated thing.
I don't want to get too much into it here because it's really Ben's project.
But basically what we have is a native Bitcoin lending platform where your Bitcoin is actually, it's still Bitcoin.
It doesn't move off the Bitcoin native chain.
Is it single custody or do you still have custody of Bitcoin?
No, it's a sharded MPC, which is,
so it's held at the chain level by a multitude of validators.
And they aren't doing a multi-seg, they're doing an MPC,
which is even more safe, right?
So it's a threshold signature scheme that's done
where people have shards of the key.
There actually is no public,
there is no private key for it.
So there's shards of the key that are held.
And this, by the way, this thing has never been broken.
So there has been no losses
on threshold signature MPC schemes,
but there has been losses on multi-sig schemes. So, you know,
all lending involves some form of escrow or custodian, right? There has to be somebody who,
who, if you didn't pay back the loan, could liquidate the loan. Or if the loan went to 90% loan to value, your loan could be liquidated, right?
So you have to have that level of, that's just sort of, that's just a fact, right? There has
to be that system. So, you know, again, I don't want to go too much into Libre, but I would just
say this is totally doable. And this is yet another reason why you may very well like to have actual Bitcoin on an actual cold storage wallet.
So I just think that there's lots of reasons.
Is it like a lending borrowing platform just for Bitcoin?
It's a two-way lending platform.
So it's not just a one-way, right? So it's not just a
we've got money, you can borrow it. It's
if you've got Tether, you can lend it. If you've got Bitcoin, you can
borrow. And it's completely transparent. And
people go, well, what are the rates? Well, the rates are whatever the lender
is. It's a marketplace.
It's really the first marketplace for capital.
It's like Tinder for Bitcoin.
What?
It's like Tinder for Bitcoin.
No, but it's more like LendingTree, sort of.
Well, it's sort of like that LendingTree saying when banks compete, you win.
When banks compete, you win. Remember that?
Remember that?
Exactly.
Exactly.
Okay. So if you think about Bitcoin loans, the way DeFi works in the Ethereum space is they have so many tokens, right?
So they have, you can lend, you can put choice of ETH, Bitcoin, USDT, you know, DA die, whatever you want, right? You have all these lending things. And
then you can borrow any of these 100 coins, right? And they're all sort of pooled. And so
there's nothing is segregated. And the rates are all sort of overnight rates that change every
single day, right? So if you say, well, what are the rates? Well, right now today, you can borrow at 4.5% on Aave.
You can borrow at 4.5%.
I just did some.
Just yesterday I did just to test it out.
I took out a loan on Aave,
put some Bitcoin in, wrapped Bitcoin,
and I borrowed USDT against it.
4.5%, not bad, right?
Again, it's not bad
as long as you pay the 1% to go into Aave.
And you have no guarantee that that 1% is not going to be 9% tomorrow.
Oh, that's the thing.
I'll give you another example.
Oh, go ahead.
Yeah.
Go ahead, Noah.
I'll give you another example.
So exactly piggybacking off what Fred said, I've been loaning my Bitcoin and ETH for the last four years.
And instead of taking a capital gains hit,
I can just borrow against them.
And I've borrowed quite a bit of Tether against them.
And then you can go and either buy more crypto
or in my case, go buy real estate.
So there's, or spend it however you want IRL.
So if you have this this idea that bitcoin
or bitcoin specifically is it's going to keep going up and you don't want to take capital gains
that you can just live on debt and like fred said the rates on other quite low during the bear
market they're like two percent right you did have that hit initially when you converted it when you
wrapped it right no no that's what i was saying i i initially locked it in ren btc so i never
No, that's what I was saying.
I initially locked it in RenBTC, so I never actually –
Oh, I see.
And that's why I haven't gone back because I've wanted to take some Bitcoin back, but I don't want to deal with the capital gains thing at the moment.
By the way, Joe's got his hand up forever.
So I want to talk about something real quick because to me, as much as it offends my sensibilities, I think it's one of the most interesting stories of the week.
And sometimes we shouldn't let our biases cloud something that's developing. I am now aware of
as many as six different Ethereum treasury companies that are following in the wake of
this move by Tom Lee. There are even more that is space on it today. There's so many of them.
And I guess what I want to know with the panel here, your honest thoughts here.
I know Fred thinks that ETH is going to outperform Bitcoin from here on out.
I saw him tweet that, which I respect his opinion on that.
Holy shit.
Yeah.
So the question, but Tom Lee's thesis for the people that didn't hear is that we're going to have this stablecoin boom.
And ETH is the second know second biggest public quote unquote blockchain
second to bitcoin it is underpriced it's due for a rally a rebound because all these entities are
going to use it he actually went in so far as to say it's the new bitcoin which i i i almost vomited
um so any anyone who wants to said that about eth on stage said that about Ethereum? Actually, Tom Lee did. Oh, yeah. Tom Lee did.
Oh, okay. I thought you said Fred Kruger.
On CNBC.
No, not Fred.
Fred may have said that, but I haven't heard it from him directly.
I have said that I do think it will outperform Bitcoin,
but I didn't say it was the new Bitcoin.
Fred, in what timeline are you thinking?
Are you talking about about the next 12 months
oh okay all right so it's a shorter timeline so so forget eth just performance what i want to
talk about is this move for ethereum treasury companies do people think this is actually
hold on hold on before we go to this show you know so the thesis so for people because i have
not publicly explained why i got xrp do you remember how much shit I got for that?
Yes, I do.
Now, I made a shit ton of money on XRP
because I literally choreographed
my entry and exit very publicly.
Yeah, I think you triggered the top.
You caused a cascade of selling
judging by the bots that attack you.
But the bots still hate me.
The bots, the XRP army absolutely hates me.
But it all started for me.
I was like, you know what?
I think that we're going to need an enterprise layer
for banks to do payments.
There's got to be somebody
who has these relationships with the banks.
So I said, you know what?
XRP is in a good position
because they've been building that those relationships for years and then i started hearing
about the genius act and as soon i swear to god the moment i heard about the genius act i was like
oh no fuck that they're gonna build their own and they're gonna just build it on different rails and
then actually it was Stripe acquiring Bridge.
And I was like, oh, shoot, now they're going to get the rails.
They don't need XRP.
So actually, sorry, XRP army.
I know you all are listening sometimes whenever you are real.
And I have to say that as soon as I saw the stablecoin situation,
it'll go into the Ethereum conversation.
As soon as the stablecoin thesis started presenting itself very, very clearly, which is America
is going to go all in on stablecoins to continue the dollar as the payment, the reserve currency
asset of the world, because you're going to need it for payments. was like oh this is what's happening this is where we're going why the
hell would they even worry about XRP like XRP to be honest between between us few 700 people in the
room I'm just saying we are XRP is going to have a slow death out of this. There's no easy solution here
because why would the banks do this at this point?
There's still lack of regulatory clarity around XRP.
It's still unclear what happens
and why would you go with all that baggage?
It's like when you were in college
and there was a pretty girl
and everybody was like, oh, she's so pretty.
But ultimately, she had a past a she had a lot of baggage and you don't want to you don't want to deal with that baggage you might there's a lot of pretty girls out there
why not go after the pretty girl that doesn't have baggage that's what's happening we're going
to see people walk away from xrp i think xrp is going to really really struggle and i think that
they are uh they this is an issue.
The worst thing that ever happened to XRP is Circle,
but even worse than that is the Genius Act.
So I wanted to say that because I've never actually formulated my thesis publicly
around why I think XRP will struggle.
Donish, I just want to say I'm very insulted by your analog.
I'm very, very insulted.
Just to give the audience a flavor what i'm talking
about look at this this stock okay this is sharp link gaming symbol s uh b e t it climbed 19
earlier in the week after they announced are you talking about brown entertainment
but i'm talking about that that's about s b e t it's in the nest they posted oh s b they climbed
19 percent uh their plan is uh i guess guess, buy a billion dollars worth of Ethereum.
And the company's chairman is Joe Lubin.
Do you know who Joe Lubin is, Donish?
No, absolutely not.
Yeah, co-founder of Ethereum.
Yeah, so he's in the mix here.
And it all goes back to there was this post that Vitalik made, and it seemed kind of salty several months back. I kind of dismissed it. But he said something like, well, the reason Bitcoin's outperformed because Ethereum is because
Ethereum doesn't have a Michael Saylor. And I think the Ethereum guys think they can just buy
these shell companies and follow the Saylor playbook and pump Ethereum. Again, I'm not sure
whether it'll work. I tend to think it won't. But I'm open to people that disagree. Does anybody
think this strategy is gonna gonna
move ethereum higher i'm pretty sure that your partner in crime danish uh david is doing this
isn't that what he what he's doing he has a bitcoin he has an ethereum solana he has a non-bitcoin
treasury company and uh based out of canada so which is a public company and it's on otc in the
us as well um I have a feeling
that's why he's been so busy recently I'm not putting anything out there we have not spoken
about it but you know he has to miss a few shows this week and he never misses shows I'm the one
that misses shows and so I think he might be busy don't be surprised if he gets it relisted because
it was previously listed and then he took it off moved it to canada because there was just not enough activity yeah i think this ethereum treasury company stuff joe
here's here's my opinion on it i think it is really smart for who it's like it's like you
can get mad at chamad for doing this back but you can't be mad at him about being a capitalist
right this is clearly a huge opportunity for anybody that wants to be able to buy a company for cheap, borrow against that company's finances to and their cash flow to be able to go and buy Ethereum, put it on the Treasury and claim just like strategy somehow claims that we're going to get a lot of value from each each Bitcoin, even though it's not changed at all and their entire thing is not working,
you can claim
we're going to operationalize
this Ethereum. We're going to allow people to stake
against it. Be an Ethereum bank in the future.
They're going to be an Ethereum bank. Become an Ethereum bank.
You know what? You could even build
platforms on top of it. We could build
products on top of it. You have Ethereum
banks. They're called validators.
Yeah, but Noah, if you are somebody who has large distribution, you have the ability to borrow
money easily. And it's going to be the same thing. You borrow fiat to buy Ethereum. And the more
treasury companies that do that, the more the value of Ethereum goes, which then means that
it validates your opinion.
Listen to this quote from Joe Luman. This is the biggest tease quote I've ever heard.
Crypto Twitter, it's in the article I posted, crypto Twitter should understand that there are
security industry rules regarding what insiders like me can and can't say,
timing rules about what we can say and do, all will be revealed in good time according to plan.
Oh man, I love that. i love that i love wait that
wasn't trump so smart that sounds trumpy it's definitely no no no we'll see what happens
it's genius it's genius this is i mean uh we saw anthony pompliano has a new bitcoin treasury
company uh we're seeing we're seeing all kinds of fun stuff right now but really really importantly
I actually think Joe and you're going to find this ridiculous I think the smartest thing people can do
is put is you know what we should all stop what Prometheus was saying before we can change the
world together as long as we all commit to buying into an ethereum treasury company joe can you make this
happen for me my friend let's start an ethereum treasury company actually that let's start a
solana treasury company now that funny you should say that then if somebody actually is already
doing it he's already got one no way i'm doing it but somebody did literally called me. Fred's already doing it. He's already got one. No way. No way, Fred. Come on. I think I'm doing it.
But somebody did literally call me today and is like, I got the shell company.
I'm not going to go over what it is.
I can't.
Laundromat?
Shell company, you know, like an OTC kind of thing.
And, you know, NASDAQ.
And look, they're like, yeah, we can raise
$100 million for this right now.
So, look,
there are people looking at
all this stuff.
Are you eating a T-bone
again?
You caught a mid-bite there.
Give the man a minute.
I will tell you, Fred, I swear to God,
I'm on the carnivore diet, guys
Yeah, yeah
It works
I was going to say that
If I see Fred and Joe
Launch a SPAC
For Solana
As a Solana treasury company
I swear to God, I'm going to be so pissed
That you didn't tell me before you did it
Let me be there early well
i will i think here's what i told the guy i said listen i think if you do do it you have to go more
degen right and you can't just do solana a fart coin treasury company the fart coin treasury
company that's what we need kind of have to throw in a little bit of the FARC coin. I kind of believe you have to.
These people need a little bit of exposure to the absolute most degenerate.
Listen, I guarantee you, if we launched a SPAC where the Treasury Reserve was FARC coin, that thing's going to 25x on day one of free.
25x.
That's kind of what I'm thinking.
Joe, we're capitalists.
You can't.
It's all completely de-tend.
FARC coin converts. I think we should do it.
Convert.
And, you know, you could have, you know, fart and fume and a very, you know, a bunch of different kind of Fs.
Wait, what?
Speaking of Fs, why not do the Fred coin, Fred?
We just like, we'll just load up on your Fred coin, Fred. We just load up on your Fred coin. No, look.
This thing has to be compliant and it has to use
the pristine collateral
of fart coin.
It's so much better you've got food in your mouth.
I mean, honestly, it's the greatest fish ever.
Wait, actually, Fred, you could just keep eating
and I could impersonate you
and nobody would know.
That's true.
But anyways, look, I do think there's something there with these things.
I honestly don't know how, you know, going back to the window of these things,
my gut feel is these things might have 12 months in them.
I'm not sure they have 24.
I don't know what everybody thinks.
But it feels to me like
these things are going to do great on the way up, and they're going to do absolutely terrible on the
way down. That's kind of my gut. Fred, here's the thing. We now know for a fact that Fartcoin
actually is a better store of value than Bitcoin for the last few months. It's definitely been
doing better than Bitcoin. So all i'm saying is i do agree with
you on the 24 month window but that's the beauty of it that's the beauty of it it's a true well
defined period where you can come in and do crazy things i will tell you mark my words there will be
so many spacks next year we're all going to be watching and be like, in awe. Yeah, I mean, you could get guys like
Arthur Hayes in, you know,
on the board and stuff like that.
Like, you know, you can get guys like
Threadguy, you know.
You could get all these, you know, total
D-Gen guys, you know.
And, uh...
Yeah, and it would...
Could be. Yeah, and it would...
It would be good. It would be good.
It would be good.
I'm just saying.
And here's the truth.
Let's take a step back to Joe's question.
Do I think that Ethereum treasury companies are going to do well?
Joe, I actually think that Ethereum treasury companies are going to do significantly better than Bitcoin treasury companies.
Significantly better.
I think the Bitcoin treasury companies are absolutelyificantly better. I think the Bitcoin treasury
companies are absolutely
cooked. They are not working.
The model, there's too
much competition. It is a crowded
chain volatility. Wait, are you saying other than MSTR?
Are you saying inclusive? No.
MSTR is actually going to be the
worst performing one of all
of them.
MSTR has... Hot takes. Hot takes. You've got to expand upon that. the worst performing one of all of them. MSDR has-
Hot takes, hot takes.
You've got to expand upon that.
Yeah, expand upon that.
I want to hear it.
Go ahead.
So the issue for MSDR is that they have launched too many products
and those products are all competing with each other.
So whatever strategy that they're using,
they're actually crowding their trades internally.
So when you look at strike, stride, and strife,
all three of them are playing different approaches towards the same strategy, They're actually crowding their trades internally. So when you look at strike, stride, and strife,
all three of them are playing different approaches towards the same strategy,
which is they're using implied volatility
and they're fighting implied volatility.
One of them, you know, we don't know the exact strategy
that they're taking on those,
but they are competing
because they all are unitizing volatility in Bitcoin.
Now you've got 21 stations that is doing the same thing,
or 21 that's doing the same thing.
We've got Anthony Pompliano's company
that's gonna try to financialize the Bitcoin volatility.
When everybody is jumping in, so again,
how do they monetize it?
They are literally short vol, right?
Like, can everybody agree that they're shorting volatility
by definition because they are assuming
if they are successful,
they're able to convert volatility into capital,
which means that they're short volatility.
Okay, but if they're short volatility
and all of them are shorting volatility,
therefore, that is a crowded trade.
And by the way, it can actually better explain than some weird
otc crazy big long thesis which again i don't know enough about i have to be honest i don't
know enough about maybe that's why shit's not moving that has nothing to do with paper trades
it has to do with the fact that there's a bunch of companies that are making their their shorting
volatility you know dennis you know what uhSide does say, which I agree with,
is that you have this
MSTY that has, you know,
significant,
it has a significant market cap right now.
And it's just massively
selling call options on MSTY.
Which is going to hold the price up.
It's selling like crazy.
But there's a difference though.
Hold the price up.
Fred, there's a difference though. We know price. Fred, there's a difference though.
We know all those numbers.
You can actually see those order flows in buys from MSCI.
It's a no-none.
I mean, that's the problem.
But Joe, that's the point that I'm making,
which is no one has run the formulas.
At least no valuation systems that I've seen
have taken into account all of these companies.
They're trying to make money on the derivatives.
And what do you think that they're doing?
They're literally reducing volatility.
And there's a bunch of bots that invest every time there's volatility in Bitcoin.
And so there's no tailwind.
So if you're not seeing, think about it.
If you look back at the history of Bitcoin,
most of the moves have happened in a very short amount of time. We're not getting because think about it if you look back at the history of bitcoin
most of the moves have happened in a very short amount of time we're not getting any of those whale moves anymore you know why so everybody said hang on a second i can attest to this because i
told him this over a year ago and he was yelling at me and saying i was a dumbass which probably
is true the but the the derivatives complex has a role in tampering down volatility.
That's what it does.
That's why S&P 500 volatility falls, because when there's hedging activity, market makers
step in and they don't let whatever side is overly bullish or overly bearish win.
They have to either support the price or put in sell orders to make it from hitting the
point of maximum pain for the market makers, maximum pain for the market players, not for the actual people that are in the marketplace.
So when you have a developed derivatives market, you tend to see less volatile moves,
and that's what happens in a maturing market.
As markets get older, they tend to tamper down volatility.
That's not like a bearish case.
It just means it trades differently.
People are anchored to these huge you know, huge squeezes and massive moves and, you know, explosions higher.
When, you know, we really haven't seen that, I would submit, until, I mean, you see it in a few days where you get, you know, outside moves to the downside.
Those are probably some of the biggest.
And the end carry trade move, you saw a big move, you know, right under, I think, 50K.
move you know right under i think 50k um but you don't really see as much to the upside and i think
But you don't really see as much to the upside.
you have to go back really to 2017 where the market was just berserk and there was virtually
no onshore derivatives market but look i think so a lot of this stuff just boils down to is there a
way to buy it or not and i would argue that there's becoming a lot of different ways to buy bitcoin
there's a lot of these treasury companies and there's a lot of different alternatives.
Maybe they're not going to buy your version of the treasury.
They're going to buy 21.
They're going to buy Pomplianos.
So I don't know.
There's all these, they're all just competing in this field.
And I think ultimately that's going to drive MNAP down.
That's just my gut.
Exactly.
Exactly.
I don't see how it could not.
Whereas Ethereum is now a blue ocean ethereum treasury companies and so going back to my thesis i'm not
saying ethereum's going to outperform bitcoin even though i kind of believe that in the short
run their 12-month period i think ethereum actually is going to outperform bitcoin i think
the problem is ethereum is relative to Solana,
the usage traction is just not very good right now.
Ethereum and Solana had about the same number
of daily active users two years ago,
and now Ethereum has 10 times less than Solana.
But isn't that going to change
with the advent of all these stablecoins?
I think it won't.
I think that Solana is going to eat eat
ethereum's luncheon who's going to build their stable coin on solana okay but can i ask you a
question can i ask a question if if ethereum is going to lose market share and already has like
a market loss market share how come the market cap of eth is so much bigger than sol like why
why do we have an 81 billion dollar market cap versus a 310 or whatever it is?
Yeah, because Solana is full of bots and it's not real utilization, right? I mean,
that's got to be it, right? Do you agree with that? Because I think if you look at kind of the
fee revenue that's generated from Ethereum, you can look at that. And whether it's bots or not,
And, you know, whether it's bots or not, the Solana fee revenue is higher than the ETH fee revenue.
So I disagree.
I think Solana is just very undervalued right now relative to ETH.
I think it's very undervalued.
Just like at one point, Facebook was a cheaper stock, cheaper company than MySpace.
It was.
And I feel like Solana...
But Fred, do you think that the meme coin craze is going away?
I mean, it seems like meme coins are going to...
It doesn't matter.
It has nothing to do with meme coins.
Zero.
The trenches will never die.
There will always be something new and shiny.
There always will be...
I'm with Noah.
Look, here's the thing.
If you look at meme coins, they're very similar to like filters on Instagram.
Remember when Instagram came out, there was these stupid filters that you could give people the retro look or the 70s look or
whatever. You don't see those filters anymore. You know, when Facebook first came out, there was
Farmville. Have you played Farmville recently? Not me, you know. How about Mafia Wars? You ever
play that game? That thing was the rage when Facebook first came out.
So I feel like the meme coin phase is just the current phase that we're at in Solana.
You know, but if, you know, Polymarkets is moving to Solana too.
You know, stable coins are going to move to Solana too.
Solana has the installed base of wallets and has the users.
At the end of the day, the stable coins are going to go wherever there's users.
And right now, that's Solana.
And I think it's going to stay Solana.
And I think Solana is the only platform that really has the capability of dealing with a billion users.
I really think it's the only one.
It's not going to be Metamask and Ethereum. I really don't's the only one. It's not going to be MetaMask and Ethereum.
I really don't.
I doubt it.
Well, don't blame MetaMask on Ethereum.
Have you tried RabiWallet?
RabiWallet is the best wallet I've ever used in all of crypto.
You can use Ethereum on Pantam.
You can now, right?
So what I'm just saying is the Ethereum complex,
you know, it's just
the whole thing, it's just not that...
I agree with you, by the way, Fred.
I'm not user-friendly.
Fascinating. I'm kind of curious now.
Solana really could...
I really am bullish on this thing. I think it could
really end up becoming the
absolute sleeper
blowout hit over the next 24 months.
And that's why I own some Solana.
And that's why I tell all my Bitcoin maxis, I say, yeah, I do think it's going to outperform,
but it's risky, right?
Like you have to believe that a lot of things, you have to believe that this whole DeFi stablecoin
thesis is going to come to pass
you have to believe that solana is going to be the winner and not suey or aptos or god knows what
right it right now i would say solana looks like it's going to be the winner but you know maybe it
is ethereum i don't know so there's a lot of things it's not it's not as clean a bet as bitcoin is so i think if you have money in your savings account i would
say most of it in bitcoin i just don't think these other coins are even though they could
outperform bitcoin i just don't think the risk reward is as good as not financial advice but i
think suey is going to give people a run for their money soon soon cardano as well i get rug pull
that money.
Didn't Sui like
Cardano as well?
Okay, okay.
Alright, we're just throwing out all the coins now.
All the dinos everywhere.
I was going to say, didn't Sui just like
get hacked and lose like half its value
in like 35 seconds?
It was a DeFi protocol within the Sui ecosystem
and what Sui did was they froze the funds
which made people say, okay, well I guess
it's not that decentralized. I
agree, but I think it has its use cases and the tech is pretty awesome yeah i mean it's just again seems like
nfa nfa i'm just it's a gamble too yeah none of us are unless you guys are financial advisors
it's funny i always find the not financial advice thing kind of funny uh because you don't actually
have to say that nobody's taking your your suey
advice that seriously guys like uh i love you guys but i'm just saying that it's just not that
serious i was gonna say uh tom you had a comment yeah so i was gonna say 21 capital i guess is
gonna list soon what would the market reaction be i don't know mallars is uh you know sort of
a bitcoin only person but what
if they were to take advantage of this ethereum hype and say you know we just launched our whole
bitcoin that we're going to also do we're not going to do it he can't do it mallards can't do
it he cannot do it thomas are you kidding me look i almost got like shrug up and you know throwing out with chicken you know tar and feathers when i
all i did was accidentally launched a meme coin and people like fred you betrayed the entire like
jack mallard's his entire ethos is pure bitcoin if he said you know what i'm considering ethereum
i mean honestly somebody might like somebody might like you know i don't know what? I'm considering Ethereum. I mean, honestly, somebody might like, somebody might like, you know, I don't know what,
but they would be really, they would be really-
Yeah, he'd need bodyguards at that point.
I mean, like there are people that have bet that on this.
And again, it's the same problem the strategy has.
It's the same problem.
Like imagine building a company
that can only have one product.
I mean, it's, they're stuck in some senses
and that's big challenge i i do think that
i i think these ethereum treasury companies are going to do much better than people think they
will i am curious if i can get in on a solana treasury company that's i i'm i'm now starting to see the light friend i'm going to look into this
okay so i will i will keep you uh informed keep me posted yeah no i'm i'm half serious about this
but like no of course i do think that there is some value to the solana thesis um in terms of
in terms of, it may not pan out,
but it's a very clear thesis.
And I do agree with Vitalik
that they have been lacking some guy
to really say what the fuck they're doing in the ETH land.
It's not Vitalik, unfortunately.
Vitalik is not Michael Saylor.
He changes his mind all the time.
He says crap like,
well, he just says a bunch of crap that's just not good.
Wasn't that a little bit supposed to be Lubin, though?
Because he had consensus or has consensus. Lubin is arguably worse, unfortunately.
He's arguably worse.
I mean, the kind of stuff that he said over the years is not great.
Like he said, oh, of course we knew it wasn't
going to work. And we knew it was not scalable. Wait, he said that about Ethereum?
Yeah. You can go find it. Okay. So remember, he started as proof of work, right? And it was
completely not scalable. We had the CryptoKitties moment. Do you guys remember that? 2017?
but we had the CryptoKitties moment.
Do you guys remember that?
2017?
There was this app that was created called CryptoKitties.
And people were trading these like 2D crypto cats.
And it was like some of these cats would go for like,
I don't know, $500,000, you know,
and you breeded the cats.
This particular app took down Ethereum,
pretty much stopped working.
The fees went completely berserk.
And everybody's like, wait a second,
this chain's completely not scalable.
And it's true, it was not scalable.
And then they were like, oh, no, no, no, we're gonna,
basically what we're gonna do is we're gonna turn it
into a proof of stake chain, like EOS and Cardano. And then sort of solana was sort of working on their sort of version of that
and you know in 2020 uh 20 was it 2020 or 20 late 2019 right around 2020 or 20 was maybe 2021 when
they finally went live with proof of stake then they didn't have the scalability issue anymore
right but then
people were like well you know you told us that this was scalable he goes well i knew all along
it wasn't scalable it's just total he did not they were talking about this world computer as if it
was actually going to work it's that was not going to work under proof of work it just was not going to work under proof of work. It just was not going to work.
And no, I don't think Joe Lubin is credible at all in my book.
The hard part for me with Solana is seeing stablecoins in Solana will be surprising given the downtime concerns. There have been some concerns around downtime.
Like they've had crazy downtime.
And I think stablecoins just can't support that. So it's kind of interesting to see. concerns there have been some concerns around downtime like they've had crazy downtime and i
think stable points just can't support that so it's kind of interesting to see and i know that
the xrp folks who by the way just all unfollowed me in the last hour which is fine it's okay uh i
love you too uh but uh you should see the comments by the i've been called like a traitor and stuff it's
it's uh it's uh fred i know that you got killed by uh the bitcoin maxis for saying nice things
about solana uh so i got i got completely annihilated by the bitcoin maxis for saying
you know xrp might have a have an idea this is before i noticed i went to i went to a crypto meetup
yesterday and you know i have some friends who started if you ever use a wallet called edge
wallet yeah i'm sorry i'm friends with the ceo paul pui and we went down to edge's headquarters
in san diego really great guy fantastic ethos of people there there. And there's a bunch of non-Bitcoin thing, but overall, look,
it was a bunch of freedom people. Everybody there loved privacy. There was people who were pro Monero
there. I don't own any Monero, whatever. It doesn't matter. But look, I think at the end of the day,
I think at the end of the day, I'm pro-freedom.
I think we should have tokens, and we should have lots of different kind of wallets and tokens and solutions.
And so I think where we went wrong in Bitcoin land, and I understand why we went wrong,
but because things basically got out of hand in 2021
with Terra Luna and everything else. And, you know, Corey, who's a friend,
when Corey Klipstein, you know, basically started saying, ah, this is all bad. All these coins are
bad. Only Bitcoin is good. And look, at that particular time, he called out Celsius and
Terra Luna and everything else. And those were really good calls.
But I think he went too far.
And I really think that what's happened with Trump is we didn't get a Bitcoin president.
We got a crypto president.
We did.
That's what we got.
We got Brad Gerlinghouse in the White House.
We got, you know, Trump Jr.
doing World Liberty Financial.
We got Justin Sun, who's the biggest backer
of Trump, you know, Liberty Financial.
So we got a crypto thing.
And whether you like it or not,
whether you hate Justin Sun or not,
and everything, what we have is we've got an SEC that no longer is persecuting all these experiments.
And that, to me, is a good thing.
And I'm in favor of that.
Like, I don't think people should get put on trial for launching a meme point.
I think that's, you know.
What about, I mean, but some of these people were co-mingling funds, no?
I mean, that's bad. I mean mean it wasn't the concern look I mean look FEX uh Binance they're all co-mingling funds isn't that the real problem well FT I don't know about Binance right look
Binance I like nobody nobody has lost money to my, nobody has lost money on Binance.
Like, okay, so, you know, were they violating some law or something?
I have not met a single person.
And I've been around crypto and in crypto since, you know, 2015, 16 type frame, right?
15, 16 type frame, right?
I've never met a person who lost money on Binance, not one.
I've never met a person who lost money on Binance, not one.
If anything, Binance sped up the growth at that time
because it was the one sandbox that wasn't getting hacked
and wasn't, I don't know, committing fuckery behind the wall.
Also, to be completely fair,
the co-mingling accusations were around times
where we didn't actually have rules and regulations and clarity
on what's considered co-mingling and what isn't. And so this is like, this is like in the old days, right? Like they
were just running a business, not a financial institution. So I do want to give them credit.
And again, what happened to CZ is what, you know, it probably wouldn't happen in any other space.
I'm just saying that it's, but it did happen. And so long story short, for everybody that's listening, we are having our Bitcoin watch party.
Bitcoin is having some fun.
I was explaining, and I think I have consensus, but I do want to get some level of consensus,
that we are not seeing monster moves in Bitcoin because the moves are being suppressed by some of these treasury companies.
Do we all agree on that or is there anybody that disagrees with that?
Like, why is it not moving?
Right.
It's not moving because very publicly we have Bitcoin treasury companies that are monetizing volatility in Bitcoin.
Therefore, they're short volatility, which explains why we don't have volatility. think the other reason is that it's not moving as much as some people first of all it
is moving but second of all yeah you know why is it not in a massive bubble right now where you
could sort of say it's a mess look there there's been a lot of og selling of Bitcoin. Lots of people who bought Bitcoin at 10,000. My average
cost on Bitcoin is 5,000. If I can sell Bitcoin at 108,000, that's a pretty damn good return on
my Bitcoin. So I'm not in any hurry to do it. I don't need the money. I love the story of
Bitcoin. But for every guy like me who wants to hold on to Bitcoin, there's another guy like me
who's like, yeah, you know what? I'll take half off the table right here. And so people, OGs are
selling their Bitcoin. And it's not paper Bitcoin. It's not some weird short that's happening.
You even see it on Telegram, Fred. you see these old wallets that haven't been activated in like eight nine ten years
activate and then move over and liquidate their uh their bitcoin then they're not taking a crazy
absolutely it's happening but but again that's like the guys they're not selling like a
shit ton of their bitcoin they're not selling like a shit ton of their Bitcoin. They're not selling all of their Bitcoin.
They're liquidating a small portion of their Bitcoin and getting some liquidity for their lives.
Outside of Simon Dixon, nobody else should be super upset about this.
And even Simon will say, you know what?
You got to live.
And if you live on the Bitcoin standard, then when you need money to be able to eat and to buy a house and to live your life
like there's nothing wrong with that it's not there's i mean again everybody has their priorities
like people will be selling but you know i also think to i think thomas or somebody was making
this point you know people sell around these round numbers right so when we hit 100 000 there
was a lot of people who were like okay that's it's it, I'm out. You know, I hit my target. You know, I said when it was 10,000,
if it hit 100,000, I'm selling. Okay, but you know, I'm not so sure if we go to pass like 130,000.
You know, I think we may kind of get through that thing that that level. And I think we may just
cruise all the way up to 200,000. You it's very possible because people are round number obsessed why there's no reason why but people are
yeah I mean uh I'm a late bloomer as I would call myself um uh you know I was a little bit cynical
I was one of the people that fought Bitcoin until it got me. It bit me. And, you know, I got in much later than you, Fred.
My average price was 38. Well, my initial entry price was 38K. At that time, Gary,
Scott Melker, and them were like, well, if you're going to do it, you got to go in heavy. And I was
like, you know, I don't want too much of my portfolio to be bitcoin right away
i'm gonna stack and stack and stack and stack and next thing you know uh despite having multiple
exits and taking all of that money and literally uh being incredibly afraid by the way the whole
way through i'm just being honest same with me, when I when I put my money in it, you know, five grand on Bitcoin, it
was it wasn't it wasn't, you know, a meaningful position on my it was significant, but it
wasn't like it wasn't one percent. But it was it wasn't, you know, 20 percent of my
portfolio either. Right. But yeah, it went up 25 times. And when it went up 25 times and when it goes up 25 times it becomes
a meaningful part of your portfolio you know and so well I had to buy mine that's the issue and if
my wife knew she doesn't keep capital she doesn't she's not a finance person but if she knew what
percentage of our net worth is in Bitcoin now uh she would lose her uh good thing she doesn't listen to spaces uh but holy crap like
it is an insane percentage uh i don't know if i've said it publicly really good not to share this
information with your wife that's just the pro tip here do not share do not share how much
your of your net worth is in bitcoin and do not talk about the price of
bitcoin with your wife ever i'm just not you know it's funny because like literally she doesn't care
like at all like the money is like not even like a driver at least not yet right and so it's kind
of like she really took care less um because you know's just, it's just where we are in our marriage
and our, in our wealth experience.
But I was going to say like, and literally it's, but it's, it's one of those things where
it sucks you in.
And I thought in my head, I was like, okay, I'm going to have this much Bitcoin.
And then I'm going to start, you know, I'm going to change my 60, 40 rule.
And I was like, I'm going to have a new rule.
60-40 has worked for so many people for so long,
but I actually think that there's an opportunity to maybe do a 30-30-40.
And then fixed income just wasn't getting it for me.
I have to be honest, fixed income has not been cutting it for me.
And so I've actually seen myself go super risk off with gold.
I have Bitcoin somewhere in between the markets, and then I have markets.
So I'm kind of sitting in this, and people hate, again, Fred can understand this because he's been ostracized.
I've been ostracized for holding a lot of gold.
And it's just my risk off asset, like my true risk off asset.
I needed something just in case
and it's it's you know i'm sure the the gold bugs are going to be like well you should be
completely in gold because that's really a store of value and bitcoin is just uh you know following
the markets but that's just been my approach and i it helps me sleep at night i don't know
and so i think that's kind of what the what
the craziness is and i bet you that folks like gary scott milk scott milker i have to give him
credit always because i never would have bought a single bitcoin um had he not convinced me he gets
a lot of credit for that and the reasoning was so ridiculous in hindsight uh but it just helped me
it was like hey it's just part of a good portfolio because the Sharpe ratio is high and it's the highest value,
highest, fastest growing asset
that's like a high Sharpe ratio.
And I was like, oh, interesting.
But it was just like a portfolio management tool for me.
I was like, it's got a high Sharpe ratio.
It doesn't act like the market.
It doesn't act like gold.
It's somewhere in between.
It's uncorrelated.
Interesting.
It should be part of every portfolio then.
And that was literally, and now here we are, where I'm just running a Bitcoin watch party
and having conversations about Bitcoin, I feel like, on a daily basis.
David Nikosky, someone asked me why we don't talk about Bitcoin enough on the show.
And I said, if I talk about Bitcoin too long, Dave Nikosky is going to short it, and I don't
want the price to go down.
No, I'm not opposed to Bitcoin.
And I said on the show several months ago, I said, look, you can like gold and Bitcoin, right?
You know, I get paid on the equity side.
I don't, I'm just going to say, when you talk to a Bitcoin maxi, it's just buy.
Like, it's like talking to Goldman Sachs or JP Morgani, it's just buy.
It's like talking to Goldman Sachs or JP Morgan marketing a stock.
Just buy.
It doesn't matter.
Just buy.
And you know what?
There's a time to buy.
There's not a time to buy.
And you know what?
I'm all about relative strength, period.
I don't care about anything. If Bitcoin goes down 20% in two months versus gold, I will be on the front of you buying gold.
Don't buy Bitcoin, okay?
Buy it on the inflection, right?
Like that's fine.
You can be bullish several markets.
You know, I've taken a lot of questions about,
you know, some of my comments about the US market.
You know, like I said, you know,
go look at markets around the
world. They are all beating the U.S. market. Like, I can be bullish the U.S. market at the right time,
but I can be more bullish something else, right? So it's, you know, again, everything's relative.
You know, if you bought a house in Austin and it went up 10% two years ago, but a house in Seattle went up 40%, it's all relative.
And that's what I track, and I got a sophisticated algorithm that does that.
So I see O'Hare in the room.
I've known O'Hare for quite a long time and is a good friend of mine.
So hopefully he's not probably a Bitcoin maxi in this room, but he'll acknowledge that he's doing what it's doing. He's a Tupperware maxi.
Yeah.
He put all his money in Tupperware.
If you all don't know, O'Hare bet on Tupperware and then Tupperware went bankrupt.
And that's how I...
I'm just kidding.
O'Hare.
I know O'Hare...
I'm still looking for three missing leads.
If anyone's got one of those green ones, it's about eight inches.
Just kidding. for three missing leads if anyone's got one of those green ones it's about eight inches just good i bet you i bet you tupperware the company made so much money from lost lids and
lost pieces i'm telling you that's that's their entire model that's how they made their real money
uh but o'hare bet on tupperware because for o'hareHare, Tupperware, he's not here, I feel.
I feel like he's not listening, really, which is awesome.
Because I now get to roast him, and then he's going to hear about it later.
But for O'Hare, the real store of value is Tupperware.
That's why he actually counts his wealth in Tupperware, which I think is fascinating.
You know how Simon Dixon says, I think of my wealth in terms of how many Bitcoin I own.
O'Hare thinks of his wealth
in terms of how many Tupperware he owns,
which I think is just incredible.
Eric, are you a big Tupperware connoisseur?
I just love that O'Hare is not even like responding anymore.
He's just playing noises.
It's just noises.
What David just said.
I just got home here.
So I've been listening to you guys yapping about Bitcoin and crypto for what, 80 minutes now.
While I just walked almost six miles.
So while you guys sat around on your tush pontificating all things crypto i actually got
some exercise in almost uh well let me end my workout i'll tell you so yeah so 5.45 miles
while you guys were yapping look you know my take on crypto the whole thing uh this is just
the manifestation of risk-taking uh this is kind of where we are in the cycle uh bitcoin uh ethereum
litecoin cardano the list is long fartcoin some of you guys mentioned fartcoin uh fred was in
here talking about fargo all this is just part and parcel with risk-taking when there's a risk
appetite and money's flush uh this is what happens and uh i'm not certain that it's going to end well here um there's a lot of
volatility in the crypto space it's a highly volatile uh we literally were just talking about
how there's very low volatility in the coin right now unfortunately that's not the case but you know
look i uh if you want to trade in in in bitcoin and ethereum and Ethereum and these other things? In fact, if the one thing you do is not trade Bitcoin and just buy and hold Bitcoin in the last three years,
you would have outdone all your Tupperware trades.
You know, it's funny you always bring that up.
But what the noobs like you don't realize is that Tupperware was three times I traded it.
The last time, yeah, it was a zero.
They went through a reorg.
I'm not going to rehash what happened there with the company.
You can go through my feed and look at it because I documented it very well.
But the previous two times before that, there were gigantic wins.
So, you know, before you guys started to find a gigantic win bang and let's
walk bang in the drums you want to know how big of a win that was uh that was over 10 000 percent
let's put it that way okay wrap your fucking skull around that danish um so and of course that was
all with options right that wasn't just the stock that was with options but anyway my point is this
you know this is all a manifestation of risk taking if people are willing to take risk and there's plenty of liquidity out there for people to do so, they're going to do it.
You know, that's all this is.
Where are we heading right now?
Are you heading to a risk on or a risk off environment?
Well, I look, I think we're kind of in right now.
This is I would say this is if you had like a red, a red light, a yellow light and a green light.
I would say we are past the green light and onto the yellow light here.
I would be cautious.
Based on what actual metrics are you looking at?
Just job numbers from today?
Well, just everything.
I mean, all of it, right?
There's just so many things that you can look at.
Look, there's a lot of things you can look at that are very positive,
that bode well for kind of a risk on environment. And then there are plenty of things that are,
you know, contrary to that, you know, that are very negative, that are not good for like a
risk-taking environment. I mean, one of the things I think people are kind of whistling past the
graveyard here is if this bill does not get through Congress to the House, if we are bouncing this ball back and forth for the next two, three months, that's not going
to be good for stocks. It's not going to be good for risk assets and certainly not good for crypto.
So, you know, one thing I want to just touch on, you guys talked about this earlier, and I was just,
like I said, walking and listening, this idea that this is like a riskless thing to do. This is absolutely the opposite of riskless. The more people getting
involved in Bitcoin and these Bitcoin treasury schemes and yield codes to try to enhance the
yield on the return. If you buy Bitcoin like the old school OGs, Fred made a good comment,
and I largely agree with Fred. A lot
of the OGs in the space have been selling Bitcoin. They've been cashing out of Bitcoin.
So if you think about, like you talked about your cost basis, Dinesh, this is a very important thing
to keep in mind, cost basis. The average cost basis for the average owner of Bitcoin is much,
much higher today than it was just a couple, two, three years ago.
There's just been a tremendous turnover in Bitcoin.
And so I think that, you know, it's one thing to have a guy that's owned Bitcoin for, you
know, say 12 years, 13 years, that's comfortable.
You know, I think Fred mentioned his cost basis is somewhere around 5000 of Bitcoin.
His perspective on Bitcoin and his appetite
for the ability to hold it through a drawdown
is much higher than the average holder of Bitcoin today.
You couple that with all of this derivative business
around Bitcoin, around crypto at large,
but Bitcoin specifically.
Do you understand how the derivative business works at all?
Like what they're doing?
Some of it I do, some of it
I don't. Some of it I look at and I'm
thinking to myself, my God, this is just one gigantic
steaming pile of shit.
I mean, it's just, you know, I agree with
Dark, you guys were talking about.
Sorry, I got to...
Let me just say this.
Are you also shorting the financial institutions
like JP Morgan and others right now?
No, I'm not short banks. I have been Morgan and others right now? I am not.
No, I'm not short banks.
I have been short banks in the past.
I'm not short banks at the moment.
I think there'll be a time to short banks.
There'll be a time to short credit card companies and, you know, just the financial sector at large.
But right now, no, I think, you know, again, we're kind of a risk appetite.
Yeah, because I was going to say that ultimately that what we're seeing right now, look, the Bitcoin treasury companies, all these treasury companies, what they're doing is they're increasing their multiples by just holding Bitcoin.
There's no real financial work being done.
There's a couple of companies that are doing some financial undernone, which, by the way, I've been very much against.
And actually, folks that are up
here have said I'm an idiot for this. You know what this reminds me of? This reminds me of like
the late 90s mortgage market, where you had kind of a, through the eight seventies, eighties,
kind of into the nineties, you had kind of a traditional mortgage market. And then, you know,
90s, you had kind of a traditional mortgage market. And then, you know, investors decided,
you know, we need more yield, we need more return on some of these mortgages. So then they started
doing all kinds of, you know, structured products around mortgages. And you're starting to see that.
But you're missing, you're actually missing a very simple component, which is most of the
companies that are holding Bitcoin actually don't have financial products against it.
We are at the very early stage.
All they're saying is, hey, we're going to borrow money and hold Bitcoin.
And Bitcoin is going to outperform what we're borrowing.
No, just let me finish.
The companies that are actually doing the derivatives, all they're doing is they're actually monetizing implied volatility.
derivatives, all they're doing is they're actually monetizing implied volatility.
And no matter how much I hate on Saylor, he actually has tons of clauses that essentially
say, hey, if I don't make money this quarter, I'm not going to pay anything out.
And so that is, I mean, I can't believe that people are buying these products.
I think they're insane to buy the products.
The way you have to look at this is very simple.
There's a lot of, there's a tremendous amount of counterparty risk to crypto and Bitcoin specifically here since this topic of discussion is Bitcoin.
There's a tremendous amount of counterparty risk in Bitcoin right now.
That wasn't the case 10 years ago.
What does that mean?
What do you mean exactly? involved with so many different plays, you know, that, you know, leverage on top of leverage on
top of leverage trying to extract yield one from the other, that, you know, the minute that the
price of Bitcoin starts to go down or somebody gets called, this is going to snowball. This is,
this is, this could be a kind of- We've seen the actual, actual-
Well, we haven't seen it. We literally nearly had like a World War III event.
Look, I'm just going to go here, like- We've seen the actual, actual. We literally nearly had like a World War Three event.
I'm just going to go here.
My prediction.
Yeah, my prediction.
Let me just give you my prediction.
My prediction over the next 12 months, Bitcoin, if there's a hiccup in the economy and the
financial markets, Bitcoin is going to take it on a chin, probably worse than you saw
in 2022.
We have a foreign country.
Give a number.
What number?
No, that's a good question.
Go ahead, O'Hare.
Give us an actual year prediction.
Look, I don't know the number.
I mean, I'm just going to say it could be worse than 2022.
And the reason for that is there's vastly more risk.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
I'm sorry.
Well, then worse than 2022.
What was the low of 2022, Noah?
I think like 16,000.
Well, one thing I'll say is don't ever say it can't get worse than crypto because in 2018, after all the ICO bullshit and BitConnect and all the scams back then, everyone said, you know, and then it happened again in 2021.
You know, the other thing, too, is just because there's not a lot of SEC oversight, you know, we all love it.
You know, when there's less regulation in the market just at large, that tends to be a good thing, right?
in the market just at large, that tends to be a good thing, right?
But when there's fewer rules and regulations, there's also more propensity to do really
risky things, especially if it's not your money, right?
With other people's money, kind of like what Saylor's doing and many other people that
are getting into this game.
So when I think about the ecosystem around crypto and Bitcoin, it's not getting less risky, it's getting exponentially more risky.
And I think that's what people are missing here. And when you have a hiccup,
and again, I don't understand exactly how it's getting more risky instead of less risky,
because having individual holders of Bitcoin, they could all liquidate much faster than any of these companies
that if they liquidated a single Bitcoin,
their entire company unravels.
How do you liquidate Bitcoin?
You sell it.
Who are you selling it to?
Right?
There's a bid in us.
No, but you don't understand
how these treasury companies work.
If you have a risk-off environment,
listen, if you have a risk-off environment,
bids go down.
They go down hard.
In the case of crypto,
bids can disappear
and when something goes zero bid okay that's not good i'm not saying bitcoin's gonna go zero bid
but a lot of the stuff around bitcoin's probably gonna go zero bid at some point
can i make a counter argument to this go for it yeah so i actually believe we're coming into a much
like lesser risk environment now because now we're
finally getting actual regulation, like the adults in the room in the SEC and the administration
actually defining what a security is and isn't, all these lawsuits being dropped.
Yes, there is a dimension now as the industry is maturing, you're seeing more and more sophisticated loan products.
You know, the likes of, you know, counterparty risk, which you mentioned, I get it.
But I also believe that, you know, look like every industry takes time to mature.
OK, like look at where we are today with um you know social media which we weren't even
just like like say two decades ago so like it it takes time for you know uh like legal services and
you know what gary does like for example managing taxes and all these things to come together
in such a way that that you know you have more sophistication and predictability and security
in an industry. And so at least with Bitcoin custodial dimensions, look, you have a game
theory dynamic. Every country in the world right now, like the smart ones are scrambling to create
their Bitcoin reserves. Major corporations, everyone's woken up to the fact that this is
hard money by which the future is going to be determined. And so obviously you're going to have
some financial services that come around this space who are going to be phonies and frauds.
And in that regard, David, I hope you keep calling them out and we all keep calling them out.
But having said this, I also believe that we're finally getting some actual adult maturation in the industry, wouldn't you say?
I mean, the truth is that the Bitcoin ETFs led to a lot of passive investors in Bitcoin.
There's been a whole new crop of people that have come in. So people have it in their 401ks,
it's sitting there, it's a part of their portfolio construction.
All of that is one side.
The other is we've got companies whose entire basis
is built on holding Bitcoin and never selling Bitcoin.
MicroStrategy or Strategy Bank being one of those.
They will not let go of their Bitcoin
because if they do, it unravels their entire company.
So it's actually like completely antithetical
to what they do.
We were talking about 21 earlier.
You've got all of these other businesses that happen to be holding Bitcoin in their treasury.
Figma is going public, and they had to disclose that they had Bitcoin on their balance sheet.
They have nothing to do with Bitcoin.
The company has nothing to do with Bitcoin.
It's actually one of the fastest growing companies in tech, and they happen to have Bitcoin on their balance sheet. So this is like why the issue is sort of like a nonsensical argument because we're actually,
because of the general approach that Bitcoin has, which is you actually have less available over time to be mined. That automatically means that the volatility
technically should be increasing, which is what is the ultimate reason why the strategy and others are trying
to short volatility because the natural progression is going to be increased volatility because
you're playing with a smaller liquidity pool.
Additionally, there's a bunch of lost Bitcoin, right?
And so we've seen some of the whales, yes, take some money off the table, just like any
other company.
By the way, today, Jeff Bezos sold hundreds of millions of dollars of Amazon.
No one's going to say that Amazon is going to be a Ponzi scheme like that.
So that's what I'm saying.
It's like kind of silly to hear some of these commentary.
It just is a very clear indication of a lack of understanding of how Bitcoin actually works
and what is actually happening.
The institutionalization of Bitcoin immediately...
Amazon is an operating company with cash flows and assets.
So is MicroStrategy, actually.
So the only asset that MicroStrategy has is Bitcoin.
Actually, that's not actually correct.
That's it.
That's all they have.
That's not correct.
They have stocks.
Do you know how balance sheets work?
Go ahead.
Listen, their software business is really not something that I think you want to focus on. That's not correct. They have stocks. Do you know how balance sheets work? Go ahead.
Listen, their software business is really not something that I think you want to focus on.
No, no, no.
They have stocks that they are selling their stocks.
I think comparing it to Amazon is probably not a good comparison, but go on.
No, my point is right now, actually, they're giving away convertible debt, or they borrow
on convertible debt, and they're giving away these financial instruments actually strike stride and strife and by the way you're making me defend a company that
i think is actually bad for the ecosystem but you say that they're not an operating business
is so silly because they're actually generating profits right now so you can actually go online
give yourself a little bit of a tour and look at how they're generating profits the way that they're
generating profits is they're actually trading on behalf of people
that buy their instruments.
And they're trading on behalf by shorting volatility,
just like a hedge fund would.
So are you saying now that hedge funds
aren't operating businesses?
This is the problem.
It's like, they're not, and again,
you're making me defend somebody
who I really think is bad for the ecosystem.
But at the same time,
you can't have nonsensical arguments and go away with it
because while I might not be Joe Carlos Serloseri i do know how to how to debate and this is like
this is one of the funniest parts of it which is people keep saying things because it's like
talking points but unfortunately what you are the argument you're using right now was a good
argument three years ago maybe four years ago when there weren't people that were operating entire businesses on top of this.
You know, I don't want to call out Gary's brother.
He is literally building an operating...
Hold on, hold on.
I'm going to finish.
I'm going to give an example so it'll be helpful for you.
It's an education of a whole area tonight.
So, you know, one really good example is Grant is actually taking income that's generated from real estate and using it to buy Bitcoin.
actually taking income that's generated from real estate and using it to buy Bitcoin. That is
actually so that he's giving access to an entire new type of investor, which is a real estate
investor, to a new asset class that can appreciate. And so the fiat actually goes down in value of
year. There's all of these really interesting ideas that are coming off. And it's actually
stabilizing Bitcoin. Because last I checked, Grant Cardona is not going to sell hundreds of millions of dollars of Bitcoin. And so this is a really simple example of how we're
seeing people operationalize Bitcoin. And the more we take it away from paper hands and give them to
diamond hands, aka treasury companies and these businesses that are built on this infrastructure,
the less volatility we'll actually have in Bitcoin, which by the
way, is bad because then people can't financialize it as much.
But that's okay because we're going to see it ranging from 100 to 110 for weeks like
we've been, which is why we have the watch party.
So I just wanted to kind of push back a little bit.
You called it a crazy volatile asset.
And it's like, well, it's crazy volatile compared to some of the other assets that are out there, but it's not that volatile compared to where it was before.
So I just wanted to think about it.
Can I ask Goher a question?
Because I've been curious about this myself, and I don't understand.
So these companies that are adding Bitcoin to their treasuries and having their valuations like 10x overnight i i wonder what the sustainability of that is and
i've had spaces on this but i haven't really had someone you know give me the other side of it like
what what percentage these companies are leveraging to buy more versus what percent are allocating
their treasury moving from one asset to another or just like adding their company revenue um
allocating that to bitcoin i'm just i just curious. And I feel like the more leveraging. Yeah, good.
Yeah, I don't know. I don't know. Someone have to look that up. That's that's irrelevant.
That's a good question. It's a relevant question. And, you know, I think this reminds me of the
late 90s where companies that were that had zero exposure to the internet at the time. The internet was just fledgling.
The pipes were being laid, T1 lines, fiber optic cables across oceans, all kinds of things were
happening in the mid to late 90s. Big boom followed by a gigantic bust. And companies
would just come out of the woodwork and just put a dot com on their name. And lo and behold, the stock would go 10x.
And I think that's largely what's happening right now.
You know, if you're not in, then you're out.
Right. It's like if you're not in, you're you're kind of out.
So I think a lot of companies are incorporating AI, for instance.
Same thing with AI. Right. I mean, you know, just a couple of years ago, you know, the the the companies that were kind of at the forefront of AI, you know, people were looking at them going, wow, look at the returns here.
Well, maybe we should incorporate AI somehow into our business model, even if we don't really generate any meaningful revenue or revenue at all.
You know, just if we can announce that we have some type of a plan for AI, you know, it'll get the stock going.
And remember, at the end of the day, that's what
everybody wants. They want the price to go up from lower left to upper right, whether it's stocks or
crypto or whatever, or houses, real estate assets. You want them to go from lower left to upper right.
And how do you get them to do that? That's one way to do it is just join the bandwagon,
jump on a bandwagon, whether it's crypto or AI or the internet.
So I think that's happening a lot right now.
That's certainly...
No one's saying to invest in the treasury company.
Sorry, one second.
But it's actually a really good example.
I actually like that example quite a lot.
So if you could have invested in the internet itself,
you would have done it hand over fist
in 1999. we're not telling people to invest in the bitcoin treasury companies in fact i directly tell
people not to do that uh people that have been listening to the shows they will there's many
many months maybe over a year of proof where i called microstrategy actually a ponzi um
i i am not a big fan of strategy. I am not a big fan of strategy
and I'm not a big fan of these treasury companies,
but what I'm saying is you should invest
on the infrastructure layer because that will continue to grow.
And so I'm not telling people
to go after these treasury companies.
I'm actually telling them to spend the internet itself,
which by the way, has been very, very successful despite the dot-com bubble bust.
I wanted to touch upon something we talked about in this morning's show.
You know, if you look back at history, you know, when you get these outrageous valuations, you know, historically, like, you know, I was a product and lived through that, you know, 2000 bubble and and like nailed it to the to the top, the day of the top.
You know, in in back in 2000, in 1999, you could have listened and went to, you know, who the premier Internet company was, was actually yahoo you know we would fill up and you know i worked for a
brokerage firm and we would fill up at every one of our conferences you know tim kugel who was the
ceo of yahoo like you don't even see them anymore right like it's we don't have a yahoo stock
anymore right it's it and it's like the phone that's you know the greatest invention like the cell phone
you know do you get did you ever have a motorella razor a blackberry like and that's where like
you know no one can tell you who's going to be the winner whether it's ai you know in next year
or five years down the line i'm going to tell you more AI companies are going to go bust than make it. And I couldn't tell you who the winner is going to be.
Based off of history and everything that we know, and history is never wrong, right? Like we have,
we can document it. We can see it's used through stock prices, through companies that still exist,
right? You know, if you look back at, you know, the technology companies in 1999
versus what's still in the S&P 500 today,
well over half of them are gone.
Well over half.
The index has changed.
The index is a managed index.
So it always buys the leadership
and it doesn't catch it all the time.
When did the Dow add the Apple to it?
It wasn't that long ago and Apple already had a 10,000 percent move.
It missed the biggest move in Apple when they added it.
This, by the way, this isn't just this happens, you know, over and over and over.
I mean, back in the 1920s, you know, the early 1900s, you had the radio and television revolution. Prior to that, 30 years prior to that,
you had the railroads and energy stocks. So, you know, you go through these kind of
technological advances and, you know, internet was one of those things. AI is another one,
crypto or blockchain technology to some extent. But I would say, again, to me,
this whole ecosystem is just leverage on top of leverage on top of leverage. And it wasn't that
long ago where people were just puking this up. And of course, we have a very short memory of
people in the investment space. When times are really, really good, and they're really, really
good right now, guys. Right now, it's really, really good, right? Stock market's at an all-time high again.
You forget that if you look at year-to-date numbers, if you look at the S&P 500 year-to-date, we're just single digits, right?
We went down a lot, I think 26% down at the trough just a couple months ago, three months ago.
And then we had a 35% rally from there or something like that.
So the reality is it's been a volatile year. Same thing goes for Bitcoin and crypto.
And right now we're kind of in that golden zone where everybody's happy, everybody's punch drunk,
only good things can happen, right? This is what I'm hearing, you know, from everybody,
whether it's in stocks, whether it's in crypto, whatever it may be,
it's just all positive. And this is why I said, if this was like a yellow, red or green light,
I would say we're kind of in that yellow light zone where you just have to be really cautious
here. Could we continue going higher? Sure. Of course we can, especially if this bill gets passed.
It could get passed very quickly.
My take is it's probably not going to get passed for quite a while. They wanted to get this thing
passed before 4th of July. That's not looking like it's going to happen. It may. And the market's
front-running that. The market's also front-running the idea that the Fed's going to cut rates,
because Donald Trump wants the Fed to cut rates. So on one hand, the Congress is going to spend
more money. We're going to add something like $5 trillion to our national debt. On the other hand,
we want to lower our interest rates so we can basically service that debt or at least be,
you know, reasonably close to being able to service that debt. So the reality is, I mean,
there's a lot of, you know, kind of unknowns at the moment. And, you know, it's like we're walking along this like,
you know, path that at some point, you know, you can give you can give way. And, you know,
like I said, I'm not I'm not trying to be overly bearish, but I'm also not going to be
very overly bearish. Look, I managed, look, we, we manage, uh, you know, we manage a,
a small mid cap value equity strategy and,
we see every single day,
you know,
we're,
we're keeping our eye on,
on the ball here.
And,
and we,
you know,
we have our,
basically our fingers on the pulse of the market every single day.
But you've been repeating the same thing since 2021,
2022,
literally at some point you were repeating it every single day. I'm sorry. Who's, who's this is Omar. And I've been repeating the same thing since 2021, 2022. Literally, at some point, you were repeating it every single day.
I'm sorry, who's this?
This is Omar.
And I've been listening to you.
I've been repeating this since when?
2022 or 2021, at least 2021.
Is that right?
Yeah.
I don't know about that.
Yeah, I mean, there's records on your X account.
You've been saying the same thing.
And at times, you were giving all your energy on a daily basis, just bashing Bitcoin over and over and over and over.
I just want to understand.
I'm going to ask you a very simple, very simple.
Oh, our Bitcoin was down how much in 2021?
It doesn't matter.
See that?
You just showed me that you don't understand Bitcoin.
We're not here.
It doesn't matter.
Nobody here is trading Bitcoin.
You're right.
I don't understand Bitcoin.
If you did, you wouldn't ask me about what happened in 2021 because your bas passion of bitcoin hasn't ended in 2023 or 2024. it's been going it'll
never end omar omar it'll never end well i mean good for you we need all types of people to make
a world and that's fine you know i mean that's right that's right it takes two to have a market
correct yeah exactly but i i just want you to answer one simple question where do you think
with all your knowledge because it sounds like you have plenty of opinions but not much knowledge,
where do you think Bitcoin is going?
That's cool.
Where do you think Bitcoin is going?
Well, Bitcoin is going to go where the collective body of holders decides it wants it to go.
But you've been nothing but negative.
You sound just like those who hope that bitcoin is going to end
at zero so just say it well i don't think it's going to zero i've never said it was going to
zero so what do you think it's going to go down 95 could it go down 99.9 absolutely so noah noah
let me let me go back to your question about is it going to no it's unlikely but you know no let
me let me go back to your to your to your question earlier about those Bitcoin treasury companies.
Let me let me tell you what they're adding Bitcoin because they've actually, unlike our friend O'Hare, have done the work to study Bitcoin and they're adding Bitcoin as a hedge against fiat devaluation.
Have you done how much studying have you done, Omar?
Because you keep talking about how little I've done.
Hundreds of hours because you've still. Hundreds of hours. You've still not given us a single fact, a single point that's actually valid when it comes to your theory that Bitcoin is not going anywhere, that it's going to crash.
That's all I'm asking you.
All you've been repeating since 2022.
No, I think you're misrepresenting what I'm saying, Omar.
I don't think you need to clean the wax out of your ears, my friend.
No, I'm not.
What I'm saying is Bitcoin is the purest manifestation of risk thank god thank god we are
in a risk with records of what you've been typing your posts are there what don't you understand
about your posts are there since 2022 every single day four or five posts a day bitcoin is not going
anywhere look at you guys watching bitcoin go here i mean mean, that's all you've been doing. It's like, at least when we listen to Peter Schiff,
he up all day long.
He actually sometimes, yeah,
he does open up arguments that are up for debate.
You make no sense, bro.
You make no sense.
And you were not a walker.
You were probably...
I've never said you shouldn't own it or trade it.
That's not what I've never said.
Well, you can't say that
because you can't dispute the right of... I mean, Well, you can't say that because you can't dispute the rights of it.
If you own the match, you can't.
Gentlemen.
Gentlemen.
Okay, I think we lost Eric because he has hand up for like an hour.
Uh-oh.
Eric, come back up.
He lost feeling in his arm.
Eric, come back up.
Well, actually, I'm going gonna start closing up the space i wanted to hear from
gary but uh i think he keeps jumping up and down i don't know if he's yeah let's hear gary he just
hopped in here let's yeah but i want to go go ahead gary yeah look uh um i mean it was good to hear
that uh and if you guys just let me finish my comments, I'd appreciate it. But
the gentleman that was speaking that does the mid caps, you know, that that makes sense to me.
If you're running a mid cap book, you're going to have a like, of course, you're if you look,
if you're in Bitcoin, you're into super growth and you're going to be bullish. If you're doing mid capscaps, you're going to have a justification why mid-caps are good.
If you're in real estate like my twin brothers, you're going to build the case why real estate's good.
So, look, everybody has – David's probably one of the most neutral people, in fact, I think, when I hear people talk.
when I hear people talk. Now, Don, I'm very surprised that you call Strat a Ponzi because
I think you don't understand how Strat came about. And I would say that he has done so much
for this industry because these products were going to come, come hell or high water. These are not products that are just popping up out of La La Land.
They are part of Wall Street.
And I'll bet you that over half the instruments he's launched has come to him from Wall Street.
He didn't cook the idea up in his backyard.
Cooked the idea up in his backyard.
So I think actually, now all these other players coming to the market, that's a different thing.
You don't really know what their intention is.
His intention was to rectify the problem of trying to create a, and I will predict it.
I think you were going to go through this metamorphosis yourself.
you were going to go through this metamorphosis yourself. He was in a business that he couldn't
hire the right people because Microsoft and Google and everyone else would over hire and overpay.
So he couldn't be competitive. He found himself in the land of giants.
And no matter how his business was, he was never going to get really big.
And I got to tell you, I've done this my whole life. It's always felt like I was in a land of giants. Okay. Like ExxonMobil would be,
oh, cottage industry, Visa, MasterCard, cottage industry. You know, yeah, it's $3 billion a year,
dude. You know, some companies are making $200 million a year and they're calling these cottage industries, which really kind of magnifies how inefficient our whole market is, right?
Because there's all these people making businesses out of really just artificial problems.
Yeah.
Yeah.
So look, that's a great point.
The artificial problem.
I love that phrase because oftentimes in industries like this, for instance, people are looking for a solution to a problem that really doesn't exist or have a solution for a problem that doesn't exist.
Or they're trying to achieve. So you're trying to achieve something. You have a problem. You're trying to achieve, keep all your customers happy. right? And you have a lane you're running in.
So you're going to tell that story.
And that story is going to be risk adjusted and blah, blah.
Now, I actually think if I'm a mid-growth guy, a mid-cap guy, this is the perfect strategy for a Bitcoin strategy for a failing business, which I think most mid-caps are failing businesses.
They're just not going to survive in this world.
You're going to have to be fucking huge, man.
I mean, huge to survive here and have a really strong balance sheet.
That doesn't mean everyone putting Bitcoin on their balance sheet is going to be strong.
But I think it will help you.
I think it will help you if after four years, if you're able to hold on four years, people like Donish will start to look at building businesses and taking all the risk of a true operating business.
HR risk, legal risk, risk management, currency risk, external risk.
It is so far greater than the risk you take on like Bitcoin and
relative to the energy as long as you have some duration and I think four day
years is a perfect duration yeah for you know for your investment style and for
my brother's investment style which is much longer so I that's where I think
this is going to see this treated as real valuable currency well one
thing i was gonna say is right so just you missed the the portion where i was forced to defend
strategy you completely missed that which is fine it's okay i think you would have really enjoyed it
watching me squirm saying nice things about michael thaler but uh but i actually agree i think i
disagree that you're doing that because you're just not studied up on him i think what he's doing
is really really uh extremely bright and extremely transparent okay in the enron i think it's bass
this was a total black box i think it's bad for the ecosystem and i think it's bad for the ecosystem
i think because the entire business then you're like to control markets it's bad for the ecosystem. And I think it's bad for the ecosystem. I think Gary's right on one thing.
But you like to control markets.
It's extremely transparent.
See, that's the problem.
Gary, you're right.
What strategy is doing is extremely transparent.
We can kind of see it.
Revolutionary, O'Hare.
Revolutionary.
Never done in a public market before, ever.
Yeah, but I would say what they're doing is quite risky, actually, not only to them.
Come on, man. Come on, dude. Your mid-cap
comes to you and says, hey, I'm going to be able to borrow money at 2%, and I can borrow a trillion
dollars. You're not going to invest in that company? No duration. It's 2%, man.
Yeah, I'm not sure what you mean by that. Well, because that is the strategy.
That is the core principle. No, I understand what Saylor's doing.
Listen, what Saylor's doing with OPM is absolutely fantastic.
I mean, what he's done.
Well, you do OPM, dude.
What he's done.
Well, we invest people's money into operating businesses.
Yeah, but it's OPM.
But it's OPM.
Right.
We invest people's money into operating businesses.
The only guy here that doesn't. I don't invest anyone's money but mine.
Gary, with strategy, there is really no operating business. It's just number go up.
And if the number continues to go up –
This is what I was explaining, Gary, earlier.
O'Hare.
So O'Hare, you think that J.P. Morgan's derivatives desk isn't an operating business?
Exactly.
Of course.
O'Hare is your business, not an operating business? Yeah, you're not an operating business, so course come on where is your business not
yeah you're not an operating business so we don't need you either there like he's literally running
a hedge fund that monetizes implied i can't wait to get away from an operating business by the way
if you want to talk about operating businesses they're just filled with fucking friction and
risk i just filled with it yeah just legal oh my god somebody
wants to do something with me they got to send me an eight page well gary by definition if you're
running a business you're going to have all those things you can't just have a business that that
that basically takes something and buys it and then buys it again and then buys it again and
then continues to buy it because the number's
going up wow at some point when the number doesn't go up anymore the number goes down
for strategy yeah but bro come on man let's let's think about when we were in economics isn't the
the greatest possible opportunity in life is just to buy something that's going to go up for the
next 20 years and if you have duration of four plus years and you're not cash constrained, why wouldn't you sit on a beach and fucking write books and learn about philosophy?
Gary, you know this better than anybody.
And get super fucking rich.
Hindsight's 20-20, right?
If we could look in the rearview mirror and say, look, I should have invested in Amazon's IPO and held through the ups and downs.
Bingo.
You know what I mean?
Bingo, bro.
It's always hindsight's 20-20.
But we're in the 21st century now. You and I, I don't know how old
you are. I don't have to. I can
ape in on this one. I see it coming a mile
away. This is the same thing, dude.
Yeah. This is
the same thing, but I think it's actually bigger.
Saylor actually admits
that Kegers dropped. By the way,
Bitcoin in five
years will be worth more than Amazon.
MicroStrategy will not.
That's a bold prediction, Gary.
Excuse me.
MicroStrategy will not.
MicroStrategy will not.
MicroStrategy will continue to receive.
Either way, it's a bold prediction.
Either way.
I'm just saying that five years, I think it'll be bigger than Amazon.
By the way, you know what?
Here's a crazy guy.
I'm going to throw this out there.
I'm going to throw this out there. I want to see what you guys think. Amazon. By the way, the only reason it will be bigger than Amazon is just technically.
Bitcoin,
at that stage,
O'Hare,
Bitcoin would be
the size of a Mag 7.
I think Bitcoin
in the next two or three years
is going to do
like a 20 for one split.
They're going to get
the price down
and increase the supply
of Bitcoin.
So instead of having
21 million Bitcoin,
they're going to go to
like 42 or
O'Hare does not understand how Bitcoin works. Jesus Christ. Well, that's what's to like 42 or I don't need it. It's not a little bit. One works
Well, that's what's
Oh my god
Sound like no, no, no, he's kidding. I know he's kidding. That's no he's not kidding. He's actually he actually believes it wait
Oh, here you are kidding, right?
No, he's not that's no he's that's I'm trying I'm telling you he's not kidding
Oh, here for that no that's what i'm trying i'm telling you he's not kidding oh here he can't do that
he's a troll this can't be no he's not oh here's a good dude he's a good dude i'm sure he is he's
a good dude yeah i'm sure but come on man well look the reason i say that is this it's very
simple you know it's the law of large numbers you know the higher the price of something goes up
right the fewer people can participate and you know this is one of the reasons the tech literally
can't do it, though.
It defies reality.
Berkshire Hathaway, Berkshire Hathaway, Berkshire Hathaway.
And also the unit basis policy is so stupid.
It's infinitely divisible.
But still, though, it can't do that.
There's no way for it to do that.
Well, look, I think there is a way.
And I think what will end up happening is enough people will get all to get oh yeah you'd have to get like 51 percent nobody's going i think that's going to happen that's my hair you don't understand how
it works man like this is when you say things like this when you say things like this do you
know what consensus even means like i know it's crazy to think that by the way is it as crazy to
say that or is it crazier to say that michael's that strategy is going to be bigger in market cap than
than uh no i agree i think i think that that's equally crazy one is crazy and the other is not
possible the likelihood of the expansion of bitcoin versus my comment no no chance. No chance. Oh, no, no.
I agree.
I agree with that.
I agree with that.
I said one is not possible, one is crazy.
The reason I say that is this.
You know, if you look at the truth over the internet.
You actually don't understand what you're saying.
It's kind of like saying that you're going to suddenly grow a third.
No, no.
You actually don't.
You don't know what the fuck you're talking about.
Because it's literally like saying that somehow you're going to implant another leg.
It's not like a a normal
aspect of it you would need to get consensus from 51 of the holders of bitcoin and that's
going to happen at some point you're going to see it happen jesus christ oh my god unfortunately
that's it and by the way when it happens people are going to realize that you know what bitcoin's
not you know there's nothing special about. There really isn't anything special about Bitcoin, right?
I mean, there really isn't.
So the reality is, like, the higher the number goes, and we're like 105,000, 6,000, whatever it is right now.
By the way, can I just add, though, here, what you're saying is not only preposterous, but it's illogical and not probable.
Well, is it as preposterous as saying it's going to a million?
It's not efficient, okay?
There's no reason to do it even if you could because there are so many instruments I can buy, dude, that I can buy for $20 and access Bitcoin.
I can buy $2 stock.
I can buy $0.39 stock.
That's what all these treasury strats are right they're surrogates for bitcoin period
that's correct yeah so it's just like in the etf space there are now more etfs out there
than there are stocks that the etfs trade which is one which is one of the reasons why a lot of
the etfs that are new today in the last five years trade other etfs think about that for a second
this is the same thing that's going on with bitcoin and this is why i say there's more years, trade other ETFs. Think about that for a second.
This is the same thing that's going on with Bitcoin. And this is why I say
there's more risk.
There's no risk today.
That's conflation, dude.
There's ETFs of ETFs.
That's very normal.
That's been going on 40 years.
It's not normal, Gary. That's what I'm saying. It's not normal.
Fund of funds is very normal.
It's very normal, man. Come on.
Yeah.
How do you think?
I think there's more.
This is why I think there's more risk than people really want to believe.
You may not want to believe that there is, but.
It has nothing to do with believing.
It's just like your arguments don't have a sensical, logical basis in them.
The chances that you're going to get 51% of Bitcoin holders to suddenly approve an expansion and dilute themselves.
Has it happened before?
And dilute themselves.
Has it happened before?
It has never happened before, actually.
It's never happened before.
It's never forked?
Exactly.
It's forked.
Yeah, they forked it off, but they didn't change the total supply.
That's not like when you're getting together.
Jesus Christ. That's what I'm saying. That's the next step. That's going to getting together. Jesus Christ.
That's the next step. That's going to be the next
step. Watch. How, though?
I just want to know why you think that.
Why, Noah?
Can we guys, instead of doing that, hey, O'Hare,
tell me what the mid-cap returns
have been for, like,
in the last one, three, five
years. Let's talk about returns.
Oh, no.
Returns for what?
Returns for mid-cap overall.
If you bought a mid-cap.
Listen, our strategy.
I'll give you an example.
You asked, I'll tell you.
You asked, I'll tell you.
Okay, so this year, for example, first quarter of this year, the market was down.
Our benchmark was down.
We were up.
So we picked up about 400 basis points, just over 400 basis points.
What's your benchmark?
In alpha, the Russell 2000.
Okay.
So we've got you folks for you that don't know.
Okay.
So most funds manage relative to a metric.
Okay.
So this is the Russell.
And how does the Russell 2000 done?
One year, two years, three years.
Yeah.
So, you know, it's right now, I think year to date,
it's down. OK. The Russell as a group of stocks is down, but not every manager that's in the Russell
or benchmarks against the Russell is down. Right. It's all about stock selection.
So, you know, and I'm not here to talk about my strategy. I'm here to talk about Bitcoin and the risks around.
I'm just trying.
But but see, this this is why I love people like you, because you can educate the audience on what the type of returns and the opportunities are.
So just just for that, though, the Russell.
I'll give you an example.
I mean, I can go look at it, but I'm trying to paint right now.
But the Russell one through five would be awesome for the audience to understand because they're going to compare that to what they're doing, you know, whether it's strategy or Coinbase or Bitcoin.
Well, you can't really compare equity returns to crypto returns because crypto is obviously – crypto is like a lot.
But maybe Donish is going to compare it to his private equity opportunities.
So let's get the returns. That would be awesome for the – Donish, I don compare it to his private equity opportunity. So let's get the returns.
That would be awesome.
Donish, I don't mean to take over your room.
No, no, this is fair because ultimately.
So I'll give you another.
Okay, so let me answer it this way.
Let's talk about the risk profile inherent in equities and inherent in like crypto.
I'll give you an example.
No, no, again, crypto is not Bitcoin.
I need you to separate those out because, again, if you're going to start using numbers hold on a second i'm looking at my gips verification okay just so you know if you don't know what gips is
look it up okay but i'll give you a year we talked about 2022 okay 2022 was a down year for equities
2022 okay i'm looking here the russellcap Value, which is our benchmark, was down 12% full year.
Now, 2022 was a year that I think the NASDAQ was down 30.
The S&P was down 20.
Russell was down, like I said, about 12%.
In 2022, that same year, our strategy was up 6.5%.
So you had a relative return.
Jesus Christ. Okay, well, you asked me the question, so I'm telling you, right? same year our strategy was up six and a half percent so you had a relative return jesus christ
okay well you asked me the question so i'm telling you right so you know it's it's all about uh the ability to pick stocks right so you can't really what you know it's it's really kind of it's it's
a hard question because you know you can't really compare i think hey you can't really bitcoin gary bitcoin in 2022 was down how much full year
yeah i don't know i mean it went from 69k to like 15.5k okay so how much is that noah what is that
what was what was bitcoin down in 2022 16 well it would have gone down to 16.5 so it would have
gone down eight times that's fine so 70 it was a 70 plus percent drawdown of
bitcoin yes for a fact dude absolutely you're correct yeah yeah and oh no and wait wait wait
that price though you would have bought 69 000 if you would have bought the very tip of the dick
you would have bought 69 000 let's hear you bought a hundred a thousand units thousand it doesn't matter how many you bought let's see about one exactly bro rolls down to 16
if you're a real fucking clever cat you would have bought that whole motherfucker all the way
down and all the way back here but if you didn't if you only bought the top and sat on it for three
years you would be up about uh 45 i'm pretty cool with that kind of stuff. By the way, it's better than my real estate
and it's better than any private equity guy brings me.
But Gary, if the queen had balls,
Gary, I'm sorry, I have to rush back, Gary.
One of the valuations of my company
has gone up much more than that.
Guys, guys, guys,
most people just aren't programmed
to sit through a 60, 70, 80% drawdown.
They're just not.
That's true.
You know, they're just not.
Most people are going to shit the bed,
they're going to fucking sell, and that's it.
I think that's what happened
in times like 2022.
I think we're going to see that again. There's no question.
It's not whether it's going to happen.
O'Hare, O'Hare, O'Hare, let me just say one thing
please because I have to go about what you said earlier
about increasing the supply.
I just want to go back to the whole consensus thing.
Just so you understand how it works. It's almost impossible. here about the increasing the supply I just want to go back to the whole consensus thing just just
so you understand how it works okay it's it's almost impossible and this is why okay the the
consensus first of all is not purely minor controlled okay the the miners can produce
blocks but if the full nodes reject them the blocks are considered invalid so even if 51
of hash power mined a new inflationary chain,
most of the network could refuse to recognize.
It's almost impossible.
So please just-
Almost impossible.
That's the key, right?
Almost.
Yeah, almost.
So you're saying there's a chance.
Of course.
There's always a chance for anything in life.
Hey, listen, guys, if I could just bounce in here
because I stopped doing the art so I can pull the data up.
So if I go back to 2025, excuse me, 2023, okay, so that's two and a plus years.
The Russell 2000 IWM as a symbol is up 27.83%.
Okay, so that's two years, roughly 10%.
Does that sound about right, O'Hare?
Well, the IWM is the growth part of the Russell.
Oh, which one do you want me to get, man?
IWS.
Which one should I get?
IWS.
This is so mean.
This is so mean.
I know where this is going.
IWF?
No, I just want to make sure I do the right one.
IWF?
S, as in Sam.
Oh, excuse me.
S as in Satoshi, Gary.
Those that are watching at home, are you guys playing along with what's about to happen here?
It's quite me.
Hey, I also just wanted to say real quick to O'Hare.
There has been a fork of Bitcoin that increased the supply.
Look up Bitcoin Diamond, i believe it is 210 million and see how that fork see how that fork
has done since it forked off and then also things could be priced in satoshis 100 million satoshi
in the bitcoin so you could just account for the pricing of satoshis that doesn't change the value
of a pizza you can cut i know it does i know i know but yeah i mean to o'hare's point yeah, I mean, to O'Hare's point,
I mean, everything he's talking about
has already been talked about for 10 plus years
and it's just hilarious to hear it all over again.
It's funny.
It's like, I have to say something,
which is like, no, hold on, hold on.
It's sort of funny to be on this side.
You know, I've made many mistakes
when it came to Bitcoin.
My entire thought process has been this.
Gary has fought me on this.
I have learned how stupid I was before.
And to watch somebody else go through their journey, it's very interesting.
When you see it, you're like, oh, wow.
So let me just give you the numbers, okay, guys?
So I went and put the IWS, and I go back.
It'll take me back as far as I want, but I went back five years. Is that okay?
Is that legit? So five years is about 2020, right? We would be up 77%. So if I put a hundred bucks
in, I'm up 77% on the Russell IWS. Is that cumulative, Gary, or is that compounded annual return?
I'm just doing simple, buddy.
So we can get there.
There you go.
I'm going to trade Bitcoin.
Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.
Yes, I can.
Let him cook.
Let him cook.
Come on, come on.
Let him cook.
The same return over that same period of time on Bitcoin is $48,450.
Now, let me go to more recent.
One year ago, the return, if I'm doing this correctly, the return for your IWS is 17.
Wait, Gary, so what's the five-year return then?
Yours was 75% and mine was 45,000%.
I think that's what I said.
So if we go to, let's just pull up one year.
I think this is right.
Let's go back to January 2024.
Let's say I invest in your fund or in the IWS.
24, here we go.
Wait, wait. O'Hare runs the I iws you run the etf the i shares that's about
that's 30 percent that's the benchmark joe that's bitcoin that is using it's not the
bitcoins up 287 okay sorry that's correct go ahead gary yes, so a two-year period, it's up 38.
Gary wants to compare apples to oranges. Go ahead, Gary.
Yeah, well, you know, when I look at my return, my accountant doesn't ask me how many oranges did I make.
He asked me how much fucking money I made.
That's right.
Gary, give me that orange bill.
You know what I'm training to do now.
Actually, your accountant doesn't care because you didn't sell any.
I want to tell you though, what I have trained my accountant to do though, finally, I am so proud of myself because of people like you, my lawyers and my accountant now ask me how much good going do you have.
Go ahead, Gary.
Go ahead, Gary. Go ahead. Don, it's what I was trying to say was I have
trained my 72-year-old accountants and lawyers. They no longer ask me
what the P&L is. They literally ask me, hey, how much Bitcoin do you have?
They are starting to think in Bitcoin times. Listen, I appreciate your comparison here,
and I completely understand what you're getting at.
But here's the thing.
And again, the most recent example, let's go back to 2022.
We had a market dislocation in 2022.
The NASDAQ dropped 30%.
Bitcoin dropped 70%.
And a well-thought-out, concentrated portfolio value stocks returns 6.5%, positive net of fees.
So the return profile for Bitcoin is, you know, yeah, it's like rocket fuel.
When things are really good, it's going to outperform stocks.
When things are really bad, it's going to outperform on the other side, to the downside.
Yeah, hey, O'Hare, just for clarity.
People have to understand that, you know, you can't just take upside without having that downside.
And if you're willing to hold through a massive drawdown in Bitcoin, that's great.
You know, if you could hold a 70% drawdown.
You would recommend that, would you not?
Wouldn't it not be a very financial decision to hold through that downturn instead of trying...
Oh my God. It's not about holding. It's also about deploying capital. Exactly.
We all talk, we all talk a big game about deploying capital when the shit it's the fan,
but the truth is that most people are shit in the bed. Okay.
They're not buying fucking Bitcoin when it's down 80 fucking percent.
What are you talking about? I did.
I'll buy that one. You want me to post receipts?
I take that back.
You guys are all 6'2", 225, fucking ripped and living on yachts and buying Bitcoin when it's down 80%.
I take it back.
I'm 6'4".
I'm 6'4".
I'm not ripped, but otherwise.
Everybody on Twitter is the same, right?
We're all buying the dips and selling the rips.
Look, if you're around for two cycles, if you're around for two, I made the mistake of not buying the first drawdown in 2018, in December of 2018.
And I told myself I would never make that mistake again.
And so it went below 20K.
A lot of us that were around last cycle aped in hard.
It just takes a couple cycles.
You're stuck on a 70% dip back in 2022.
Well, guess what?
If you had bought Bitcoin and NASDAQ index,
you would have returned 120%, 130% on Bitcoin versus only 28% or 30% on NASDAQ.
Omar, guess what?
If the fucking queen had balls, she'd be king.
Exactly.
So what are you talking about?
You keep repeating the same shit, bro, since 2022.
He's actually a reptilian, but anyway.
We out.
Oh, here, can you explain i i was i was enjoying
uh watching the new season of squid game and i got like 30 dms that you need to get in this
room to talk to o'hare so what's going on wait hold on i need to say for the record i really
like o'hare and i'm thankful hold on hold on o'hare you gotta hold on joe joe o'hare said that within the next two or three years, they're going to double the supply of Bitcoin.
They're going to increase the supply to 42 million.
Can you guys hear me?
I think some people can't hear you.
I can hear you, Chris.
I can hear you.
Go ahead, Chris.
OK, if you can hear, I just need to say, Oh, here, in spite of all this, I really like you.
And I like you even more because you came back to your actual name.
Oh, here. And I like I like the you, and I like you even more because you came back to your actual name, O'Hare, and I like the avatar too.
So go ahead, Joe, but I just wanted you to know, O'Hare, regardless of all the shellacking, I like you.
Yeah, yeah, that's key.
All right, let's keep going, Joe.
Go ahead.
I can take a beating.
That's okay.
Thanks, Chris.
I mean, O'Hare, what I don't understand is that you seem to have some animus towards Bitcoin that just seems almost unhealthy.
I just hear it in your voice.
I'm worried about you.
Joe, it is.
You know, it's funny.
It's one of those things where you start building a personality around a belief system.
And that belief system is being a contrarian and this is
one of those really interesting opportunities where the core tenant of a person who does mid
gap investing where they're looking at a very low risk profile uh you know and uh you know and a low
reward hold on hold on it's contrary no no no no so you don't understand it's not low reward profile. It's contrary. No, no, no, no, no. So you don't understand. It's not low risk profile.
Nothing.
Okay.
We have a very concentrated portfolio.
No more than 30 names, no fewer than 20 names.
Right now we have 26 names in the portfolio.
And yet how much did you make low risk?
It's not low risk.
And then what was the reward for your
for your high risk version of mid cap investment?
So far, we're positive for the year.
The the Russell, the benchmarks actually down. We're up for the year the russell the benchmarks actually down
we're up for the year so you know but again so you just you just defended yourself as a potential
not just a value investor but a growth investor no he's a benchmark investor and that's what i'm
saying is like so the benchmark is so weak it's ridiculous my business is bitcoin big fucking dick man just rolls out
and it performs forever and ever you got that right gary don't ever forget it either
that's really gross roll it out we have to fold it and roll it
bro i i my it's too much for me i just smack it down there
hey joe joe so what's your opinion
we have ladies listening gentlemen let's calm down now let's calm down Yo, what's your opinion? I'm getting sick, Gary.
We have ladies listening, gentlemen.
Let's calm down now.
Let's calm down.
I was going to say, Don, don't act like you haven't been in the gym. Guys, let me just say this.
Listen, as I've always said, I have a lot of friends in Bitcoin.
I have a lot of friends that have been in Bitcoin a very long time.
I will never, you know, again, the first rule of Bitcoin is you don't talk about what you own, what you don't own.
Number one, okay, you just don't.
All these people that are on social media
talking about all the Bitcoin they own,
it's just, to me, a bunch of LARPs, okay?
Here's the thing.
Am I a LARP?
Yeah, that's kind of a funny commentary.
Do you guys know people that do that?
I don't know anybody.
I've never heard anyone say something like that.
Everybody, are you kidding me?
Every day in these rooms.
Literally, every day in these rooms.
O'Hare, how much Bitcoin do I own?
O'Hare, how much Bitcoin do you own?
I understand the Tupperware joke.
No, no, no, that's off limits.
That's off limits.
He's trolling.
There's no way this is real.
No, no, no, Omar.
I'm telling you, this is one of those situations where we have folks who have built entire personalities around this opportunity.
And it's super interesting because literally the one thing that he's holding on to is somehow we're going to break consensus.
It's the benchmark.
It's how people get paid, dude.
His salary is paid relative to the benchmark look at the benchmark of all players guys so again the benchmark will be bitcoin my
friend so and that's the point that i make your pe firms you will yeah look at coins look ultimately
ultimately like gary i was i've been thinking about a comment that you made the other day which
is i am working really hard running my companies, going out there, raising money, building product, and actually providing a service.
It's a ton of work, right?
So I am actually looking at my actual, is it worth it for me compared to-
Oh, be careful what you say here, Donish.
I know, I know.
Donish, let me just say this.
Oh, here, let me finish my comment.
Let me finish my comment real quick because it is actually really helpful.
And for me, I actually did the analysis, Gary, and the value of my stock in my company has
gone up faster than Bitcoin, at least for now.
And we're going to continue to monitor it.
But that is actually how I'm going to continue.
It's a good frame of reference to say, hey, are we moving fast enough?
Is there a better place for me to deploy my capital?
And so this is actually completely-
Is it liquid?
Is it liquid?
It is not liquid.
So that's not a fair comparison.
Hold on a second.
For me, it's a fair comparison.
It is a fair comparison for me specifically.
How is it fair when you can't actually realize it?
You can't realize the game.
Well, I can't realize it.
It's not – that's fair.
Donish, if you were evaluating that, if you took it to a real evaluator, they would cut it in half because of the lack of liquidity.
Well, a 409A would be much significantly lower.
But Donish also has faith that it's going to get to an exit.
I mean that's important.
We have a lot of people in the audience though, Donish.
You've got to explain that to the audience, right?
Like what Adonis said was, hey, my returns for my own company that I own my own shares in has outdone Bitcoin.
Joe says, no, you can't liquidate your shares today.
But I will tell you, and again, this is important.
It might be up 1,000%, but no one's going to give you that value.
But I will tell you.
Hold on, guys.
Guys, let me respond.
It's always linear.
It's lower left to upper right.
It's whatever we say the value of the portfolio is because there's no mark to market.
It's just whatever we tell you it is.
So again, the easy thing for me is that it has outperformed Bitcoin significantly the last two years specifically.
So much so, Joe, that even if they did a 409a
it would and your benchmark is what you raised money at or what exactly so he raised money just
recently and that's an evaluation of the company right and no no actually i'm comparing this to
the 409a post-raise so that's i'm actually using a very conservative model. And for me, that worked out. I know. It's been a very good year.
So that's the, again, from our perspective.
Well, wait, your 409A has outbeat the performance of Bitcoin over the life of the company?
Over the last two years, just to be very clear.
Over the last two years.
Over the last two years.
Okay, but still, that's pretty good.
$12.
Like, you know, he might have never raised money before, or he might have raised $100.
No, no, I've raised money multiple times in this company.
But the point, again, remains, Gary, if you listen to the point, it's like, hey,
at this point, I continue to outperform, so I should continue to run my company.
That's my benchmark that I'm using.
I don't think increase in fiat value is that valuable.
It's comparing in Bitcoin.
That's actually been a really good way for me to think about it as an operator. Gary, the moment I see our growth
not outpaced Bitcoin, it may be an opportunity for me to start having real conversations with
my executive team and saying, hey, what are we doing wrong? Is this worth it? Should we look
for an exit? And so that's like, it's actually a really helpful framework for business owners i
think yeah this is scary though in what i do why and and think about this for a second
i don't know for angels like could you beat the kegger of of uh bitcoin i think that's pretty
hard i mean as an angel i think that's pretty hard and I mean, as an angel, I think that's pretty hard.
And even as a VC, like that's hard, you know, like, but the point that I'm trying to say is,
is if all the VCs and angels go bucket, we're just going to go own Bitcoin,
then that's a lot of innovation that goes away. Yeah. So that's, that is kind of scary.
I'm not speaking from the VC or angel investor perspective.
I'm speaking from the founder perspective.
No, no, you're right.
I'm saying this is a conversation that I've been having
since I dug more into this with all the yahoos on this stage
over the past eight months now, whenever that was,
you know, like just pre-Trump election.
And so like, that's a real thing.
And I do have to think about that.
So I have paired back even, and I'm supposed to not be investing at all anyway, right now. Like I'm
really trying, I'm like, I need some exits so I can have a little liquidity, but I am still
deploying capital. But when I get real principal returned after a couple of these exits, that is
going to be top of mind. And that's not good for the ecosystem, for the technology and innovation ecosystem.
But again, so that's like, I'm a capitalist.
Well, for me as a capitalist
and somebody who's building a company,
similar to Gary's brother,
you know, I have my lane,
I know what I'm executing on.
And if I can't,
and if I can't outpace Bitcoin,
for me, in terms of percentage growth, and again, the 419A takes in full time.
Can I just interject for a second?
Hold on, Joe.
Joe, hold on.
This is really, really key.
This is really important.
This is the profile, the return profile for Bitcoin right now. really critical because you're what danish is saying is so true for all all investors which is
if i can't get the type of return commensurate with the amount of risk i'm taking i'm going to
go somewhere else and if the return profile for bitcoin going forward is less than it has been in
the past but the risk is still the same but that's true of any asset i think a lot of people are
going to move no that's wrong that's That's totally wrong. It's not.
Joe, all he's saying.
It absolutely is.
It absolutely is because the risk profile is lower.
Exactly.
I don't think so.
I think that's literally the main point.
I agree with Joe on this.
That's the main point.
Let's just use an example here because I've talked to this at length.
I actually gave this analogy to a trial, okay?
When you're talking about CAGR, when you're talking about risk-adjusted return, when you're talking about what the goal of a fiduciary is when you're maximizing capital,
you cannot focus only on the rate of return. The analogy that I think is appropriate is
think of you're driving a car, okay? And you're trying to get to your destination. That destination
is whatever your financial goals are, right? You can't focus only on how fast the car is going.
You can't focus only on the kegger.
What you have to focus on are all the other variables.
What are the road conditions?
What are the likelihood of crashing?
What's the braking distance?
All these different factors.
So when we have these discussions, it's kind of stupid because people focus only on the kegger.
I could always think of assets that are going to grow faster than Bitcoin.
Joe, Joe, you are literally saying what I was saying. Let me finish. It's not just a kegger. I could always think of assets that are, you know, going to grow faster than Bitcoin. Joe, Joe, you are literally saying what I was saying. Let me finish. It's not just the
kegger. It's the risk profile. It is the risk profile, but here's where you're mistaken.
You're mistaken because if you look at sharp ratios, if you look at actually portfolio
construction, including Bitcoin in the mix is supercharging your returns. So the thing that
doesn't make any sense that you completely keep missing is you think of a strategy like as applied,
we're all it's 100% Bitcoin. You could sprinkle in Bitcoin into your portfolios already. And what
you would have is a sharp ratio that is far more favorable to all of your clients. But you're just
saying, I don't want to do it because Bitcoin has this high vol. Yes, the volatility is vitality.
It gives you better returns. So why wouldn't you do that alongside your value portfolio it makes no sense it like you're
literally doing a detriment to all the people that are giving you money joe joe joe do you manage
money no you charge a fee for your services okay it doesn't matter don't attack me don't attack me
the argument the argument is i'm giving you math let me just say this let me just say this when
you're managing other people's money and they have a drawdown of 70%, 80%.
They're not going to have a drawdown of 70%, 80% when you have a 2% allocation.
Hold on.
Let me just finish what I was saying.
And you have to sit across the table with somebody.
Oh, Harry, you're not listening.
He's saying it's part of a good portfolio.
It's a portfolio strategy theory.
I don't want to own something that has the potential to go down 80%.
If it's 2%, but if it also has the potential to go up.
I don't give a shit if it goes up 5x.
Hold on, let me finish.
I can own a stock that goes up 5x over five years, okay, with a risk profile that's much lower than Bitcoin.
Why not do that?
That's my point.
Because you have to pick that individual stock, whereas Bitcoin is an asset class.
It's an asset class.
So the point is, I can show you with math that the Sharpe ratio is going to be more favorable for your portfolio with a Bitcoin sprinkled in.
But you're just saying, I hate Bitcoin, so I'm not going to do that.
I'm not saying I hate Bitcoin.
That's not what I'm saying.
long so so and joe you know i don't hate big we have spent we have spent much a long time
trying to help o'hare understand some basic aspects of portfolio construction like sharp ratios
like where it's dope before you joined i shared the same i even shared my journey it was very
personal we got really intimate in this room. I talked to, I mean,
Gary was talking about rolling out his penis. I mean, it was all kinds of stuff happening here
and we got all into it. All right. Ultimately, there are some minds that aren't ready for change.
It's just, it is what it is. And O'Hare, you will find your way to Bitcoin. You just don't know it
yet. I never use the word penis, by the way, you have a dirty mind, young man.
I wasn't even talking about that.
You have a dirty mind.
You need to talk to your mom, okay?
I was getting sick.
Look, Danish, ultimately what I'm saying, and I think Joel and I talk about this all the time,
all I'm saying is, listen, know what you own.
And when you own Bitcoin, yeah, you could have outstanding returns in environments that are conducive for risk taking.
We are in one of those environments right now.
On the other side of that, the flip side of that, the flip side of that is Bitcoin has tremendous volatility to the downside in risk off environments.
You have to understand.
That's great. That's a positive. That's a positive.
Because you can buy. Most people are not like you. They're not going to be able to hold on
90%. It's not about holding. It's about buying. It's about acquiring assets. The vast majority
of people are going to be rich. They ain't going to be rich. What you just told the audience,
they're never going to be rich. The vast majority of people, O'Hare, that are in these spaces are not purely trying to survive and minimize drawdowns.
That's not who we're talking about.
We're talking about people that are trying to maximize returns.
I want to max.
Is that what you're telling me, Joe?
Rich.
No, it's not gamblers.
It's risk-adjusted return.
It's sprinkling various assets and buying on dips.
I want to be like Donish.
That's portfolio construction theory.
Donish, can you go into your thesis of why you think micro strategy is going to blow up someday?
No, I never said that micro strategy is going to blow up.
You need to come to Jesus on that one.
That's just not right.
Look, guys, guys, I am on my...
I am on my journey.
I made a little detour through XRP, back to Bitcoin.
Everybody has their journey.
My thing with micro strategy is I think they're bad for the ecosystem because I think that
their core strategy is to short volatility, which is actually suppressing price action
in Bitcoin.
That is a core belief.
Now, I also don't like the approach that they're taking.
They're not shorting anything.
They're not shorting volatility in Bitcoin.
They are monetizing implied volatility.
On MSDR.
On MSDR, not on Bitcoin.
So my brother has a piece of real estate and he wants to...
On MS... I'm sorry. That's a good point. Sorry.
Let me... It's MSDR. It's not Bitcoin. They're shorting volatility on MSDR. That is a false... has a real estate and he wants to and somebody on ms i'm sorry that's a good point sorry let me let
me i said something you are it's not bitcoin they're shorting volatility on msdr that is a
so so don't buy msdr but by shorting which is what i that is literally my point just so people know
that is joe just said it perfectly that is actually the point which is
does not make it a fonzie scheme i think it makes it a more like a multi-level marketing.
Micro strategy.
It's a pyramid.
It's a pyramid.
Yeah, but that's not a fair comparison
because micro strategy will be,
Alex, I'll walk you through it.
So micro strategy will be worth a lot
because of the Bitcoin it owns.
And you could just own Bitcoin
and Bitcoin will continuously outperform micro strategy moving forward.
That is the underlying piece.
So you like the Jim Chanos, Jay,
you want a short MSCR long Bitcoin.
Which is what I've been doing, by the way.
You can go to my old spaces
for the last month and a half.
Anybody that's been listening,
they have heard me say
that specific exact place.
And by the way, it has gone incredibly well.
Gary, it's gone so well
that it's making me question
my entire overall portfolio construction strategy.
Shorting MSTR and buying Bitcoin
has been the best thing I've done.
You need to do that, O'Hare.
Why don't you short MSTR along Bitcoin?
Just run that trade.
It's a good trade, Joe.
It's gone really well for me.
I'm being serious.
I want O'Hare to run it for his investors.
I've got my hands full in Tupperware.
You know, there's only so many things you can do at once, you know.
All right.
So we have tried our best to help O'Hare see the light.
But, you know, not everybody is ready to succeed.
Bro, we're still working on your brown little ass, man.
I mean, you still got a bunch of hang-ups.
I have hang-ups around microstrategy.
I just can't get over the fact that somebody is hoarding all of this Bitcoin and trying to financialize it and is actually hurting clear price action in the market.
Now, is it we're behind closed doors, OTC, and nobody knows and it's going to lead to some big long?
Absolutely not.
I'm not convinced of that.
But do I think that they are actively suppressing volatility?
Absolutely.
And I think it's bad for the ecosystem.
I think there's a bunch of people that are waiting for quote unquote a pop and you're
not seeing those pops come in, which is why we're not seeing the price action move.
And that's just an opinion.
It's not like, uh, by the way's not like they're allowed to do that.
It's completely legal.
It's going to blow a lot of people out of the water.
All you guys that think it's not going to happen,
it can't happen for whatever reason you think it is,
when it does come, literally it's going to be eye-popping, eye-watering.
I'm just telling you guys right now, there's so much risk on top of risk.
I've heard this in the equity market for 25 years.
When everybody decides they want out, they need out. When everybody decides they want out, they need out.
When everybody decides they want out, they need out.
Who's going to be the other side of this?
Tell me.
I'll be buying it.
You think Michael is going to be able to soak it all up?
I'll be buying.
ETFs are going to be selling.
I'll be buying.
This is so funny.
Joe will be the bid out there.
O'Hare, your clients will be buying this steady land
on the point you know when i bought in i bought in in i think it was may of 2020. i was waiting
for a long time and that's when i first got it oh here i can i can i can post the receipt
of 10 bitcoin in march of 2020. you want to see it i bought 10 bitcoin in march 2020. you can post
the receipt if you want.
The world wasn't ending.
I have no reason not to believe you.
Yeah, that's when I bought.
10 Bitcoin in 2020.
Joe, did you hit it at four?
I just missed it. No comment.
I got it at eight.
Damn you.
So guys, now that we're done with our big swinging contest, it's time to go to sleep.
We have a show at 8 a.m eastern we got shit to do
why do you care you rarely show up yeah i'm gonna go
and then half the time we got to hear about your personal life so like oh my god i mean
we were all figuring that you're in your underwear scratching yourself anyway.
That's true.
I hope you all enjoy.
O'Hare, you've got to check out the F1 movie this weekend.
When you have time, go check out the F1 movie.
It's pretty good.
Hey, I just got back seeing the dinosaur movie.
I can't remember.
You saw the new one?
Yeah, the Jurassic Park.
Yeah, it was fucking good.
Was it good? I want to see it too.
The F1 and that one. Those are the two.
Wait a second. Gary, you had a chance to go
see F1 and you went to see Jurassic Park
12? I went with my kids,
dude. I think they're on
8. By the way, Superman comes out
too. Superman comes out.
Nobody watches that DC bullshit. I'm waiting for Superwoman. I think that're on a... By the way, Superman comes out too. Superman comes out. Nobody watches that DC bullshit.
I'm waiting for Superwoman.
I think that'll be awesome.
Superman's my greatest hero.
Adonis reminds me of Superman every now and then.
Can you guys imagine him in a cape in his underwear?
I've seen that.
I've seen it.
It would be awesome.
With a Bitcoin logo.
Oh, man.
I think ChatGPT could do that.
No, please don't do this, guys.
Please.
Have a wonderful night.
We will see you tomorrow.
Somebody get Don a discussion interview with Michael,
and I'll put large amounts of money that he comes back
like being a disciple.
Gary,
I will do that and I will ask a million
questions, but just know that I might upset
Michael by asking questions.
But I don't think he's... He sighs
on all the time anyway, so
it's fine. He'll just think I'm an idiot, which is
fine. All right, gentlemen, have a wonderful
night. We'll see you tomorrow.
Thanks, Donesh. Goodbye.
