Good morning, everybody, and welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by BB.
There is no second best live YouTube stream to talk about the markets.
Happy Wednesday, February 25th, coming into the end of the month.
We know how we usually tend to trade around the open and close of our monthly candles.
We're going to talk about it with you guys on stream today,
as well as the fact that we have NVIDIA earnings.
Of course, they're pumping NVIDIA into earnings.
We'll see what happens here as we resolve into the end of the week.
But I'm Snorlax. You guys also know me as Tommy.
I'm joined by Tucker, Prometheus, and of course, Chef Jackis.
We're going to have a great show for you guys today.
But before we can do that, before we can start talking about the market,
the fact that we're pumping, I mean, right, ETH is up almost 10%
in a single daily candle.
Is this the bottoming process?
Or is this just a squeeze before a continued downtrend?
We'll discuss on today's stream.
But if you guys could hit the like button for us,
that would be deeply, deeply appreciated, as you know. So you oblige, we'll oblige. We'll have a
great show for you guys. Hopefully no soybeans today, but can't make any guarantees. But
talking about the markets, right? Because we are pumping. We are pumping quite aggressively.
Bitcoin's up 6%. ETH is up almost 10% on the day.
We kind of started this lower timeframe momentum drive right before the State of the Union. And I
made this comment on the morning call today, but I think it's, you know, love it or hate it,
or rather him, what I feel like we're all trading at this point is kind of Trump.
And the erraticism that the ad tricks, however you want to characterize it.
I think that's really what's kind of keeping this market trading as I will call it pinned.
But I have to imagine at some point, like within the next month, that we will not be pinned for any longer on the equities.
At least that's what I'm hoping. And we can finally see which way this
range wants to resolve, right? On the S&P, on the NASDAQ. And will the Dow Jones break back above
50,000, right? The infamous 50,000 level now. But all right, let's focus on the coins because
I want to focus on the coins this morning. Like I said, ETH is up 10%,
Bitcoin's up 6%. We're getting closer to trading back into kind of these local highs that we set,
I want to say in mid-February. Also, conveniently, not so conveniently, however you want to view it,
coincided around the recent local low for Bitcoin volatility.
So that continues to be what I think is going to drive Bitcoin up or down at this point.
If you're a bull, you really want to see volatility just get absolutely hammered for the next few months, in my opinion.
Because if it continues to rise, you're going to continue to trend lower.
Looks like everything across the board is squeezing, though.
When I look at small caps, Palantir up 5%, Hood's finally getting a rebound. We're seeing,
in my opinion, a mechanical bounce from tech stocks that got beat down quite aggressively on a relative basis over the last few weeks. But I do want to highlight this re-divergence,
I guess we'll call it. We've been seeing capital kind of flow from tech into defensives.
The Dow Jones made a divergence and made a new all-time high.
And now I think we're kind of seeing the opposite effect, right?
You look across the board and tech stocks are up pretty much,
pretty much universally more than defensives.
Is that because there is a larger mean reversion trade to see in,
in those tech stocks? Or is it a
sign that people just want to go back to risk? The defensive bid was just a LARP. But no,
I don't want to make that statement because I don't know. But we'll see how it all resolves.
How are we doing, guys? What are we thinking about the markets right now? Is Litecoin really
up 15%? What are we seeing in the markets guys what are we thinking about
uh about everything so far today and obviously this week
is that really 15 dude oh yeah you gotta zoom in you gotta zoom in to see it zoom in a lot yeah
in a lot yeah well circles up almost 30 on the day just crazy look at the gap up wow
is it gonna do anything probably not
probably more of this I don't know I'm not interested yet what are you guys looking at
I mean circle bottom is in circle really, probably the low tick, yeah.
That doesn't mean straight to new all-time highs, but I think it could be honestly
and I don't see much reason why not.
It's down about 75% from the highs.
Right now it's down 75%. Yeah, it went down 83%.
What are we talking about?
Jack, is you saying you don't want minus 99.
on circle no back back to all-time highs
I think listen it went down minus 83 percent AI agents discussing how they will be using stable coins for payments.
The technical is pretty clear with the deviation of the bottom. Crypto markets in the bottoming
process from my point of view. I don't see how any are gapping up here through the critical
level. I think circle's bottomed.
Yeah, I think if you can get through like 83, you're probably clear through there.
Because this was thin, you'd probably go right up to 130.
do you guys have any of this does anybody own any of this no no i do honestly i think it's
maybe still overvalued but i'm not going to get into it overvalued what is it like
it's not i just don't think it's a necessary
like asset you like you don't need to hold circle stock to be long usdc i actually i still think
coin is probably the better proxy to be long usdc growth but you know again i'm not going to get
into it i'm the most coin than that what you? You'd rather hold coin than circle.
I mean, I don't think I'd like to hold either personally, but...
What do you think about coin being bottom day?
You know I have feelings about that
i don't know i just think we're seeing mechanical bounces from tech
yeah at like the last level of support
tesla still looks pretty rough, man.
What else, boys? What else else hood's up
hood's up i mean small caps like everything that got hit over the last few weeks i guess
you know we could say that right even though a lot of these mag seven names really haven't moved
uh it's more the small caps that moved they're seeing bounces right because
they should it's rare that you just go straight down in a straight line
i don't really think that hood is going to form a bottom out of this structure but
it makes sense that we bounce out of this gap to some degree and i think we're seeing that across
the board right like a Microsoft, for example,
bouncing at a level that it probably should.
Software bouncing at a level that it probably should.
Palantir bouncing at a level that it probably should.
I just think Hood's hanging out in no man's land right now. I had a good feeling they were going to crush the VIX at some point this week.
But I also don't think that it's going to be trading lower than like 17.
The floor for Vol keeps rising in my opinion
yeah they're gonna need to they're gonna need to bring it up here
i can see them taking like equities a high. I just am pretty skeptical.
I'm skeptical not only that they can do that,
but that there's actually going to be continuation after the fact.
But because SKU got so ridiculous last week, I've been making the comment,
like I would not be shocked if they took the S&P to a new high.
They took maybe the Dow to a new all-time high.
But I think if they did do that i i kind of feel like that's just
a home run spot to be uh to be ripping shorts on equities but you know you have to be careful
right because if you're shorting here and equities do make an all-time high most of the contracts
for may and for june are gonna they're gonna get absolutely crushed so you know it's kind of an interesting spot in my opinion from a positioning standpoint
because if you're bearish you have to be able to manage that uh you know that risk to downside
i said look at others big
uni is up nearly 20 percent oh really are they finally starting to do the uh the shares
like the share the buyback kind of like revenue share model is that implemented or is
i know they talked about it for some time and i don't know
if they ever implemented it um i'm not sure if there is not some legal problems to do that but
about like two weeks ago we got the announcement that blackRock is going to start buying the unit token oh really
that cost yeah that caused the prices to to search for the day then it retraced entirely right after
since then it's ranged and now it's up 20 again oh yeah I see that candle
up 20 again oh yeah i see that candle nice yeah a lot of these um like even on bitcoin
it does look like i mean the majority of these charts look pretty similar to me
where you know as long as they haven't been down straight only i mean there's pretty decent liquidity trails on the way up
for further upside that is especially on hyper liquid like hyper liquid looks
looks primed for like 32 like take out that high that we set back in uh two weeks ago i agree
yeah you know and then people are gonna be like oh this is like a deviation to the lows
inverse head and shoulders um probably enters into like a prolonged reaccumulation period
similar to like what solana did i know that's a comparison that a lot of people are making right now is the solana hyper liquid charts um and then i think hyper liquid is
going to be a fantastic buy like genuinely
yeah i think i don't think you i don't think it's going to get back up to this quite yet.
A little shoulder. we'll see generational bottoms in man you didn't long
you didn't buy the state of the union address
honestly when when i realized like that we were probably pumping to front run the state of the union address i just kind of laughed i was like you know what that is kind of the state of
things we are at least crypto is just becoming like very correlated with uh with trump action right
But how do you explain the post
State of the Union pump, Tommy?
Yeah, there was a whole standing thing
What if some of these points like Uni is literally a generational buy,
and we are all looking at it and are like, yeah, that's nice, but I'm not buying it.
I mean, like, if you think about Uni, it just swept its 2022 low, right?
It's been going sideways for four years here, since 2022 low in June.
And BlackRock just announced that they are partnering with them,
announce that they are partnering with them,
that they are going on chain, and they will buy the token.
that they are going on chain and they will buy the token.
And maybe it's that obvious, and Uni goes to 50 now
And we are looking at it and are like, hmm, not interested.
That's not going to happen.
he doesn't but like what if definitely could
but yeah that's the question right it's like why is that not enough i like i guess you might be
buying a jacket but like why is why are those catalysts you said not enough you know for most people perhaps they are perhaps they are maybe
they are and like i mean we think of it from crypto terms and we think like oh my god this
range for four years it's totally dead right but everyone keeps using qm and when i when i think of
using qna and when i when i think of uh stocks i mean they've been going sideways for eight years
ten years and it's like totally normal before they pump a lot and like how is four years that
that long for something right again in crypto terms that feels like eternity
but in real market terms it's it's very little
but in real market terms it's it's very little
i'm just trying to be open to the other situation to the other outcome
i'm not saying i'm buying uni right now and expecting it to go to 50 but like what is i do think that the older coins
are like every cycle that these coins get older they're just going to be more attractive to me
than especially everything that launched this cycle i don't think that the stuff that launched
this cycle is going to have any buyer outside of like hyper liquid but like the coins that have gone through four years or more of distribution
of those coins you know things that ran in like 2021 you know i could i would be more intrigued
to potentially buy those at some point this year than i would something like i don't know like
celestia we were kind of joking about that yesterday on the spaces, just keeping an eye on Celestia for the forbidden INJ fractal replica.
But now what would be most appealing to me would be kind of i could be i i actually think that doge
could be a long-term coin that we look back on like why didn't i buy that at discounted prices
yes i am saying that i don't think anybody's bought magic eden token for like months maybe even years
if my puppets are anything to go off of i actually didn't didn't magic eden pump kind
of hard like a week or two ago i remember seeing them in the top volume for uh
for coin allies yeah they did pump it what a chart what's their ticker me
these charts are just brutal oh man
usd yeah not much better that's insane i remember they made it impossible to get the airdrop too so that
all the insiders could sell at the pico prices man my big question right now is our um equity is going to fall through to
the upside in a meaningful way that's kind of like my my big question because i mean you can
see that a lot of these crypto charts have some room to run here um you know move a lot of that short positioning out of the market and
you know like i mentioned earlier the charts look kind of primed for some room higher here with the
liquidity trails that we mentioned but if i look at equities it like, it's still kind of like a dull market for, for equities,
for the most part, in my opinion, like maybe caps flat on the day. If I'm looking at, you know,
the indices, Nasdaq seeing some form of mean reversion. I'm just like, how much room do we have here? You know, it's kind of like my question, right?
I mentioned on the morning call
to the people in the Discord,
I don't want ES to just like come up to 7,000
Like if you're bullish or if I'm bullish, right?
What I want to see is like expansion i want to see
displacement i want to see you know repricing be well beyond 7 000 like i want to see a 71 7200
yeah i think so too i still think that there is that
drop looming for equities but i think it could be very quick when it happens
did you guys listen to the state of the union i watched like 20 minutes a little bit yeah
i think i put out a tweet this morning where i said you know and this is kind of what i got from
it was like trump feels like that kid in elementary school who's running for class president
and he's promising like free skittles and gatorade endlessly at lunch
and then they get elected and you're like wait why is nobody getting all this gatorade and skittles
anymore and then you like find out that's just like not how it works um and i think he's doing
the same where there's like a lot of promises like you know these tariffs are going to pay off the
income tax uh you know the list goes on and on and on it like
a government match on the 401ks and like all this and i'm just like you know and then like the
tariffs are going to be supportive of all that but i mean these new tariffs i mean those will go back
through the judicial branch right they will go back to the supreme court um and do we think those ones are going to
pass right it's really hard you know like i what is the implication on the market if the tariffs
are allowed to stand versus if they're not
i think it's bullish because a lot of the spending was and is derived around the revenue that's generated from the tariffs.
And I think that if they, you know, get shot down again, I think that, you know, a lot of that, you know, quote unquote spending and those like promises that have been made.
Like, I mean, they have no substantial footing then.
So I think it's like bearish if they get shot down i think it's bullish if they stand
um interestingly enough i was about to say that's kind of funny to see that shift
yeah i don't have a i don't think they're gonna stand to be honest so i guess we'll see how that
goes i don't one thing i will say though is i have no idea when that situation is going to resolve right like i have no when do you know when they have
to make a decision on whatever they just implemented like last week i have no idea
no honest because i know when they're gonna
it's funny how the market will care about these things even cause massive volatility and then you
look back in a year and the market doesn't even care anymore
same thing with cpi fomc these events just have like no movement or they don't cause any movement in the market anymore but do you remember how during the tariff drop during q1 last year when
you said that you are buying people would would tell you that like you are stupid how
can you buy i mean this is an unprecedented time in history like we do not know how much these
studies are gonna affect the world economy how how can you buy i mean i i need to wait to see how it all resolves and like the stock market has been up only since so
that's crazy that perspective to me that today nobody cares but like
exactly a year ago this time you know people were freaking out
time you know people are freaking out so i found that with the tariffs the new ones will not go to
the supreme court um and the reasons that the old one did was because of how they kind of like
structured the act um and that these new ones are specifically for just the executive branch or based around
you know the president um so looks like they will be implemented for at least 150 days until if and
when congress um wants to extend them or not so looks like we have about five months that they'll be they'll be on
i think hype might be a decent one to short after this bounce
yeah i agree where do you think it goes jackas
i think like 30 to 33. yeah like 31 33.
hype last because it gets that last
people getting liquidated on
shorts, not revenue going
Big move out of solana and eth today
what about link oh god yep things up 15 on the day that's how crazy these moves can be when they are low enough. Like when the market is so low, a single day
candle that basically changes nothing, right?
JOHN MUELLER 1, I remember when we used to have those candles
Yeah, it feels like another lifetime.
Or just yesterday, depending.
Do we like link i do like link
just like it feels like one of those coins that will never die
you know it's like the david goggins of the crypto market you tired son
yeah link will probably present a really fantastic buying opportunity
you know it's not going to be one of those coins in my opinion at least as of right now that I could
see you know doing insane numbers but I mean obviously it appreciates when the broader market does. I don't know, man. I think we need to be open.
It basically just retested the 2022 base, right?
And when we think about it, I just discussed Uni, right?
But Ling is also one of these legacy coins and I could totally see
how we like retested this whole base now everyone kind of gives up and as I as I outlined in
crypto land it's like forever right like when you think about it we haven't moved up since the two since the june may 2022
but in like stock terms this is totally nothing this is like very short actually because lots
of stocks they take like 10 years to go sideways before they start ripping and i mean i could like
i mean we could totally see link here and uni and the market be bottom and these turn around and we
see 60s 80s oh wow i think it's very much possible from these prices
i can imagine i'm trying to imagine
well so the funny thing is that most at least in the stock market most value stocks at least
the ones that perform the best uh going forward right not going to talk about tech because
it was a little bit different but a lot of like value stocks bottom before before the low in 2008
right before like the actual capitulatory bottom yeah and i remember michael berry or berry berry
writing about that i think it was like a week ago
talking about how these assets like he was he was buying them as early as like uh you know i mean really realistically before the blow up of lehman before that last leg down for basically majors
and uh yeah they would have the best buys for some of those assets were before the actual capitulatory bottom from like the large cap assets.
So something that's always stuck with me.
Some of these altcoins could already be bottomed in theory.
But I don't, I will say I don't know that that's a chance that I'm ready to take. take i would like to see the regime on altcoins shift to slow grind up versus constant bleed down
you know we buy discounted prices on altcoins and then it's like it gets
even more discounted i just want to see the uh the type of of the way that we're trading change what you looking at um yes on top yeah we've got yes on top is 2008 coca-cola in the middle
and then amazon on the bottom and interestingly enough the more speculative name being amazon um
i mean it was up 30 off of its lows while es went and made new lows
and i wonder if it's going to be one of those regimes where, you know, I mean, we have seen obviously this flight and this rotation to defensives across the board, right?
Energy staples, healthcare for some aspects.
But they do very, very, very well.
I like the healthcare stocks, by the way.
Sorry for interrupting you, bud.
I mean, some healthcare stocks look fantastic um i think ones that rely on the whole medicaid model are gonna have issues
moving forward specifically like united healthcare and a few others i'm not saying that the companies
are going to implode by any means it's just you know i think they'll do fine just kind of like a revaluation period is obviously
the balance sheets change a little bit um but i mean they're i mean companies like that are
fundamental to like society right i mean united healthcare makes up like i think it's like 20
of the united states population's um insurance you know, and like Medicare solutions,
Medicaid solutions. So, yeah, I mean, that's significant, that's structural. And I don't
think that that is going to like shift anytime soon, like I said, from a revaluation period,
but kind of what I was alluding to was, you know, this move that we've been seeing higher in defensives, you know, typically
we do see in kind of like a later stage cycle. You know, I mean, these generally happen when capital and liquidity is kind of trying to find that flight to safety.
But I don't think that that means that, you know, tech and higher beta stuff is not presenting
or will present a fantastic opportunity. And because of that relationship that we just discussed,
where energy just caught the most recent rotation for moves to the upside,
you know, and if tech's leading to the downside, I mean, you would think that tech potentially
actually is the bottom, does have its initial bottom before energy potentially, right? Because
there are more sellers now, arguably, or there more are long positions to exit in defensives where the majority of that positioning has been pushed out in a lot of
these tech names. Similar to what we saw here in relation to the EES, Coca-Cola, and Amazon,
right? Where obviously, you know, Amazon kind of bled significantly in the beginning parts, gave up a ton of its ground
that it made here in 07. But once you got to understand from a market dynamics perspective,
it's just buyers and sellers. And if there's no more sellers left in the chart,
for the most part, your asymmetric opportunity is to the upside. Now you do have
to be selective in what you buy, because I'm not saying you can just go buy anything and everything
and buyers will magically present themselves. But if you do see buyers start to entering into an
asset that has been discounted in a meaningful way and they start to come in at, you know,
whatever opportunity it may be or whatever price it may be you know
that's generally a good signal and to tommy's point like with altcoins if we switch on over
to altcoins here like you want to see you don't want to see these like i mean these squeezes are
are fine like there's there's nothing wrong with them um but you want to see like an actual sustained bid come in um and that would be great
signal in my opinion uh that you know whatever asset it is that you're looking at that okay like
you know this is maybe one that i need to be paying attention to moving forward you know
maybe it is like a link you know a uni swap um right and time will tell like time time will tell, like time, time will tell. And if you're patient and you kind of keep
your eyes open, you'll be able to see that within the chart. I do like DeFi as,
you know, obviously something that's going to resurrect. That's always kind of like
The next time that we do meaningfully trend higher,
we're probably going to see DeFi be the main fundamental narrative for altcoins.
But now I'm looking at the DeFi chart.
And it's not really a structure I think that we typically bottom out of.
But it's hard to imagine.
I do think the Clarity Act will help a lot in regards to whether or not, you know, the path forward at least, least right for like the uni swaps um for like
the chain links stuff like that right um maybe not so chain link as much but definitely like a uni
swap and a plethora of other names like ave this kind of goes on and on but um you know if that
kind of gray area becomes more clear from a regulatory perspective, then you can kind of start to really paint the picture moving forward on what it is, you know, that's going to be able to benefit from whatever structure is formed with the clarity act
it's funny to me defy will pump after getting regulation
on principle i kind of hate it
but you know. I think about
Ultimately. I mean, that's the bull case, right?
Is that ETH is a fed chain.
Have you guys seen mr robot
they've talked about it they call it e-coin oh really yeah they don't want they don't want to
make bitcoin an important part of the u.s financial system in the show because it's controlled by
like a bunch of people that we don't know, like anons and ancient Chinese miners. And so they
were like, but with eCoin, we control the ledger.
chat i need to know have you guys followed in already but are you still waiting
What do you guys make of this chart?
Jackis, what are your initial thoughts just looking at this? um
uh I don't know I think like a little bit lower
what is that this is the um Bitcoin miner Bitcoin minersf which i mean really shouldn't be called bitcoin miners etf anymore it should just be called data center company etf but
it's a interesting chart you had your livermore cylinder yeah
i don't know about that one a little exacerbated but
it's like are we forming a shoulder here did we form a shoulder here you know
i'm definitely does that look like the spx 6900 chart hold on let's let's look so windy here right now no it's not really the spx 6900 chart
i have a hard time buying Bitcoin miners right now. Yeah.
So I think I would say there's more risk buying Bitcoin miners than there is buying like defile coins right now.
Both are baited a Bitcoin, but I just think, you know, a lot of these miners like look jihan woo sold his uh his mining company's entire position of bitcoin that's an ancient whale and that's an ancient whale it's up
to you to determine whether or not you think someone like jihan woo is dumb or smart money
but if it is a sign that a lot of these miners are just going to be selling a ton of bitcoin
i'm you know obviously wary about buying their stocks
what's their ticker yeah i know they sold all those i got a kick out of david and
mike alfred talking about iron.
I guess this does kind of look like the chart that she showed a second ago though.
iron made David said he thought it would go to four bucks.
He said he'd take out the April lows.
It's an aggressive price target there's a good space
do you guys think that quote-unquote jane street manipulation is noise or do you think that it is
anything meaningful to the market
i think it's part of the market right i think it's a part to the market? I think it's part of the market, right?
I think it's a part of the market.
I wouldn't say that it's like,
I think if you're blaming a 50% correction
and the 2022 crypto market on Jane Street,
but I don't want to be like too harsh,
right? Because they clearly like this is clearly a deep pocketed player with that does a ton of
volume, not just in crypto markets, but just broader North American equity markets. I said
this on the space yesterday, but the fact that Jane Street does 10% of all North American equity
market volume is just mind mind-boggling for
me to think about when you think about all of the different players uh that transact inequities are
not volume but the number of transactions rather um so they're very active i have no doubt they're
manipulating crypto on a lower time frame but you know jane street's not going to have more influence on this market
than someone like finance or even coin i agree so i completely agree with that take i actually
messaged that to somebody this uh this morning that exact thing but you know it's crazy like
you said jane street does 10 of the. They also don't have to disclose their positioning.
Which is, I mean, a little criminal if you ask me, but.
They're operating in a major legal gray area, in my opinion.
Regulatory arbitrage is arbitrage, though.
Right? Yes yes it is oh micro strategy poor soul
i don't know that you're going to get a bigger sell on mSTR until you actually see volatility go up. Like that is what breaks the entire crypto market
Because everybody, MicroStrategy's business
is just selling volatility is effectively what it is.
They hold the Bitcoin, Bitcoin goes up,
they generate yield on the Bitcoin by selling,
or yeah, by, by, with covered calls.
covered call isn't going to hedge the downside
of the Bitcoin that they hold.
So, you know, they're vulnerable to tail
risk but there hasn't really been tail risk in crypto this cycle you know most of the downtrends
have been very controlled yeah i know like one of the like so this uh specifically strk which is the perpetual preferred. I know a lot of people, you know, bought this thinking that,
oh, like it generates, you know, an 8% dividend.
Sometimes it's even more than that.
But if you look at like the net real returns,
it's literally negative from like an annualized basis
and i'm like yeah the fixed income vehicle yes and i'm like i mean that's been a huge proponent
of like micro strategies business model over the past what 24-ish months, 12 months at least, at least 12 months. Yeah.
I mean, it's not a coincidence that when DVO rises,
you see these fixed income vehicles start to drop more meaningfully.
I'll keep saying, I think the key to downside in crypto is all about bitcoin volatility like we have now flipped we've now flipped it you know like for so long bitcoin vol going higher
was with price upside and now like that flipped definitively on October 10th.
And now, as long as we're in an uptrend on volatility, the market's going to be in a downtrend.
So I'm interested to see how Devo is going to react coming into the low that we set on February 15th. Because, you know, if we line it up with Bitcoin,
that was the high of the range so far,
more or less around like 70 to 71K.
So I think, you know, if we break that low on Devo,
we're probably going to break that high on Bitcoin. yeah man oh man
bitcoin is a freaking rocket ship this morning
everything is nice volatility i'm gonna lie yeah oh yeah
wow look at these 30 minute candles can we unpin?
All right. I got to run, guys.
I think that's time to wrap it up, Dermot.
That might be it for the show then today, guys.
We have a bunch of team members busy doing back-end stuff right now.
Today, obviously, but rest assured, guys,
we'll be back for another episode of Market Check tomorrow.
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Market Talk has a typical start time around 3.30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.
So we'll see you guys there later this afternoon and throughout the week.
But until tomorrow, thank you, as always, for tuning in.
And of course, guys, stay safe.
We'll see you tomorrow. Outro Music