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BREAKING NEWS: Bitcoin hits 30k!Market NEWS Roundtable with Tone Vays
Recorded: June 21, 2023 Duration: 1:27:24Space Recording
Full Transcription
Hey, brother Tone.
Tone, you able to hear me properly?
Yep, I got you.
Perfect, perfect.
Brother Tone, we're just waiting for the rest of our team members.
They should be here in the next minute or two.
But thank you so much for coming up on the show to come talk some shop, man.
Really looking forward to the conversation.
I consider you a legend in the space.
Been following you pretty much at Saigonza Crypto in December of 2017, man.
Thanks, man.
All right, cool.
I think we can get started.
What's up, guys?
Welcome to another edition of our Twitter Spaces.
We're here joined by the legend himself, Mr. Tone Bays.
And Tone, I want to welcome you up on the show.
And shout out, by the way, to all our Discord members and newsletter subscribers and YouTube subscribers as well
for taking the time to come talk some shop here on the show with Tone.
So, Tone, great to have you, brother.
How are you feeling today?
You know, over the last week or so, we've been seeing some pretty bullish news from the Bitcoin side of things with, you know, spot ETFs.
And a lot of spot buying demand has been coming from Coinbase, which is really something you see at the start of a larger rally.
So, would love to know how you're feeling about the current market conditions before, you know, we get into, you know, more broader macro topics and things of the like.
And once again, man, love, love to talk some shop with you here on the show.
Thank you so much, brother.
Yeah, thanks for the invite, guys.
Definitely, this rally has been amazing.
It's been a good four to five days.
We're breaking 30,000.
We pretty much touched 31.
We're up at, you know, 12-month highs.
And this does feel like a rally, similar to the way we rallied over 20,000, the way we're rallying off of 25 that we hit, like, Friday or Saturday.
So, I really do like it.
I think this is the continuation of the bullish trend.
I'm not going to say the bullish trend has started because I've said that months ago.
I think the bullish trend started back when we were, when we bounced off of 20.
And now the bullish trend should continue into the halving and past that.
So, definitely exciting times.
The ETF news is definitely helping fuel the market.
But I think it was going to go up regardless of the ETF news.
Awesome, brother.
So, before we get into the meat of the conversation, could you tell the audience, how did you get into the world of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, Ethereum, and all that good stuff?
How did you get into the world of cryptocurrency?
And what was it about this market that, you know, appealed to you?
And had you go into a thought process that was like, you know what, I'm going to be here for the longer term and I want to build a brand off of this and connect with like-minded individual people that are passionate about the space?
Yeah, so, I've been working on Wall Street since around 2006, 2007.
I learned how to trade before that.
I was trading on my own, but I started shorting the real estate market way too early.
I kind of ran out of money shorting the real estate market, had to get a job.
So, that job was at Bear Stearns, which a year later completely imploded because of the real estate market, ironically.
And I always wanted to just quit my job and go back to trading, which I did in 2015.
And slightly before that, slightly before 2015, I run across Bitcoin.
I mean, I've been hearing about it since 2011, but I never really looked into it until that 2013, 2015 time period when the Cyprus banking confiscation happened.
And that's when it kind of hit me that Bitcoin is the only uncomfuscatable asset the world has.
So, that's when Bitcoin piqued my interest during those 2013 Cyprus confiscations.
And when I did quit my job in 2015 to be a trader, I was going to be trading traditional markets.
I wasn't really going to be focused on Bitcoin or the crypto market.
But I just, you know, kept reading about it all the time.
That was my, basically that was my interest on the crypto, on Bitcoin mostly, not the rest of them.
Never really cared about Ethereum.
And since I was reading about it all the time, I decided to do something with it.
So, I started writing articles.
I also started speaking at conferences.
I used to love public speaking.
I used to be a teacher as well.
And getting a chance to travel the world a little bit, which I've never really done.
And speaking at these Bitcoin conferences, crypto conferences, with my expertise on, you know, the finance world, the trading world, really got me into the world of Bitcoin from there.
Tony, so when you mentioned the Cyprus banking incident, you know, I can't help but think about some of the banking crises that have happened over here in North America with the Silicon Valley Bank and things of the like.
Do you kind of see a parallel between the two?
Yeah, definitely.
There were definitely serious issues in the banking system back in 2008.
And there are some parallels.
It's not as bad now as it was then.
I mean, you have to realize that environment and what caused that environment.
Now, what caused that environment was people taking out $500,000, $600,000, $700,000 mortgages while having no job to pay for those mortgages.
That is a way worse situation than what we had here.
The recent banking failures, they're nowhere near as bad.
They're nowhere near as systemic as what happened back then.
I guess the one big problem that the world has today that it didn't have back then is that debt is now double or triple.
And because interest rates are no longer zero, that debt is going to skyrocket higher.
So government debt is actually a huge problem now where back then that was not an issue.
Cone, and to evade a potential systemic break, do you think the Fed is going to end up cutting rates way too soon and perhaps bring an uptick on inflation?
And the reason why I'm asking this as well is from a price action perspective.
And, you know, throwing it back to like a historical piece, right?
In 2019, when we had peaked at $14K, the Fed proceeded to cut rates three times in the span of four months, which led to a 50% decline.
So do you think history is going to repeat itself where they end up, you know, cutting rates too soon and something breaks within the system?
And, you know, Bitcoin ends up suffering from it?
Or do you think like this spot ETF truly brings a new paradigm where perhaps cryptocurrency can rally during these uncertain times, just as gold did during the great financial crisis?
Okay, so a couple of things to unwind there.
Let's start with gold during the financial crisis.
The moment the financial crisis happened and the stock market fell 50%, gold actually fell 33%.
So gold didn't do all that great.
Now, afterwards, gold recovered fairly quickly and rallied to new all-time highs.
It rallied big time way before the market did.
But what people have to realize is that when stock markets crash, everybody suffers.
Companies go out of business.
People lose money in their retirement.
People start spending lots of money.
People start investing lots of money.
And when people start losing wealth, they need to sell whatever they can in order to put food on the table.
So this is why gold also suffers, because some people have to sell gold.
I remember reading articles how people are like replacing their gold teeth because they want to sell the gold teeth.
Usually the older people that back then when gold was cheap, they used to, you know, put them in your teeth.
So if the stock market is to suddenly big time crash, yes, the Fed is going to have to react at lower rates to try and support the markets.
And will that help Bitcoin or hurt Bitcoin?
I think it's irrelevant to Bitcoin what the interest rate is.
But when the market crashes, again, same scenario.
Market crashes.
People lose their jobs.
People feel scared.
They're not going to be rushing out and buying Bitcoin.
What's best for the Bitcoin environment is a nice, stable market where Bitcoin proves itself to be the better asset, to be the better store of value, to be a better investment than the stock market, to be an uncomfuscatable asset when, you know, the prime minister of Canada decides to cut away your banking services because you donated $20.
And when these problematic things are happening, while the markets are fairly stable, that's the best environment for Bitcoin.
Good stuff, man.
Good stuff.
So I do have one thing to throw in your direction, given that you've been in the space for a while.
So I wanted to know your thoughts on what's going on within the Bitcoin layer as far as, like, ordinals, right?
Or, as I like to say it, NFTs and altcoins on Bitcoin.
When you first entered the space, did it come across your train of thought or even your colleagues' train of thought that, you know, one day you would be able to deploy, quote-unquote, innovation on top of the Bitcoin infrastructure?
Or was it always just, you know, an alternative means of payment in a store of value?
It's really interesting how you phrased that question.
Oh, just a heads up, I happen to be going into the elevator.
So in case you guys lose me, in case you guys lose me, just be aware that I will be right back once the elevator door is open.
Yeah, the elevator got them, guys.
The elevator got them.
Love elevator.
Love them.
They got Tone, bro.
Yeah.
They got Tone.
When I was joining...
Put on that point.
Never mind.
I'm going to go.
I don't remember.
No, they got him.
Yeah.
Okay, I'm good?
Yeah, you're good now, brother.
You're good now, brother Tone.
Yeah.
It was.
It was good.
Yeah.
Totally.
Okay.
Okay.
There was a project called...
The very first one, you would take a Bitcoin, you would subdivide that Bitcoin into 100 million pieces,
because that's where you can divide Bitcoin by.
And then each Satoshi, basically, is assigned a share of a stock.
So you can take Apple stock.
All Apple stock, all Apple company has to do is buy, you can subdivide that Bitcoin,
and it can now issue 100 million shares of their stock, each one assigned to a Satoshi.
That was a project way ahead of its time, and that project may still be back, but people realize that, you know,
maybe this isn't a good idea, or these are very difficult challenges to implement.
It's great that people think they can do, like, NFTs and ordinals on top of Bitcoin,
but it's very, very challenging on Bitcoin main chain.
What I advise everyone to do is to look at Bitcoin sidechains for these projects,
like the Lightning Network or the Liquid sidechain or the RGB sidechain.
These things aren't really meant for Bitcoin on-chain layer.
Bitcoin on-chain layer is supposed to be slow.
It's supposed to be expensive.
It's not supposed to be private.
I mean, that's how Satoshi designed it.
He designed it this way specifically to maximize decentralization,
to make something that can't be stopped.
And something transparent is a lot harder to stop than something super private.
Something that's expensive is a lot harder to stop than something cheap.
So, it's designed in a way to make it impossible to take down.
And then all this other stuff could be built on top of the stuff that gets built on top of Bitcoin.
So, and the whole concept of ordinals is tricky because you can't actually own a Satoshi.
You think you own an NFT, but you can't really own a Satoshi.
The Satoshi sits there in the blockchain, and you're accessing it.
And it's actually not easy to send a specific Satoshi to someone else.
These are actually challenging problems in Bitcoin.
And they're challenging a bit on purpose so that people really understand what the real utility and innovation is.
And people always forget what the Bitcoin's innovation is.
Bitcoin's innovation is your ability to have censorship-resistant digital transfer.
That's it.
That's the most important part.
So far, the only use case has been money.
It may be the only use case.
We don't know yet.
And it's way too early to know.
But it separates itself by being decentralized.
And nothing else can compete with it.
Because you can't just, you know, announce in a press release that you're building a decentralized project.
That's not how it works.
I know CZ wanted to work that way.
But that's not how it works.
Tone, one thing that I also want to throw into your direction are the halving cycles between Bitcoin.
Typically, we see a pre-halving cycle and then a dump leading into it and then the rally to all-time highs, right?
But given that, you know, the SEC sued all these crypto exchanges and then pretty much a week later, all these institutions that have stake within those crypto companies, right?
Specifically, BlackRock, they have stake in Coinbase for custodial solutions and all that stuff.
Do you think this might be a different year going into the halving where potentially we could reach an all-time high going into the halving for the first time ever?
Or do you think it's going to be, you know, just another halving cycle business as usual?
And I believe the cost to mine one Bitcoin by the time we get to the next halving is going to be about $36,000 to $38,000 to mine per Bitcoin.
I don't think the cost to mine a Bitcoin is going to be that high.
I think the cost to mine a Bitcoin now is less than $10,000.
And I think it's going to probably stay under $15,000 going into the halving.
But that is not my area of expertise.
Now, as far as cycles go, I do think that this cycle is going to be similar to the last one where the ultimate high in Bitcoin comes after the halving.
However, there is going to be a peak before the halving and a drop before the halving.
And we just don't know when.
We don't know if that's going to come in a few months or if that's going to come in January or February.
So it's impossible to properly trade the pre-halving hype and the post-halving hype.
But what I am comfortable trading is the fact that we are in a bull cycle.
And this is the time to be long Bitcoin.
You don't have to be leveraged long Bitcoin.
But this is the time to be long Bitcoin.
A few months ago, I made a very public statement after we bounced off of $20,000 and we were breaking $22,000.
And I said, we're probably never going to see below $20,000 ever again.
And now I'm saying the same thing about $25,000.
The chance to buy $25,000 was last week.
I'm not sure anyone's going to get a chance to buy Bitcoin below $25,000 ever again.
But if we rally from here to $50,000, we can easily crash back down to $30,000.
I think $30,000 is going to become the next major support area.
Right now, I see $27,500 as support if we are to pull back now.
But if we get to $34,000, $35,000, now I'm only going to see $30,000 as the support area.
And then we take another leg up.
Now, how many of these clean-cut stair climbers we have into the halving, we don't know.
I would love to see Bitcoin at higher prices.
This bear market has been brutal.
It's been hard on a lot of Bitcoin businesses.
It's crazy how when I review the people that were buying tickets to my very first Unconfuscatable conference in 2019,
when Bitcoin was under $6,000,
people were spending more money back then.
And they were more comfortable doing it than today, even though the price of Bitcoin today is five times higher.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Some very interesting points there, brother.
Wada also knew your thoughts on the equity markets, right?
You know, we're seeing a lot of outperformance from tech, things like AI.
And now even, you know, some stocks from Will's Outlook, he mentioned Rivian, has, you know, started quite a trend.
So, Tone, I wanted to know your thoughts on the equity markets.
Do you think, you know, potentially we can have something like the QQQs hit all-time highs?
And, you know, we're seeing all this development from Apple with their ARs, with their VR and augmented reality sort of things.
And, of course, with Sam Altman's OpenAI and things of that nature, do you think, like, this is going to be, you know, the dot-com bubble 2.0 going into, you know, the later half of the decade where we have a new tech sector emerge?
And it's called speculation at the very beginning.
But, you know, that's what starts these bubbles.
And we'd love to know your thoughts on this from an equity markets perspective.
Yeah, so I've been bullish on the equity markets all year.
I've been even bullish on the equity markets going back to late last year.
I became a big bull at the equity markets.
I am anticipating an all-time high in equity markets.
Maybe even this year.
If not, I'm very confident it will happen next year.
I think we're about to go into an unprecedented bull market.
Besides the AI companies that are going to do super well.
So, AI itself is going to make all companies do well.
Because AI is allowing companies to replace the most expensive part of every single company, which is human labor.
And they're going to be able to replace that with some of these AI tools.
We're already seeing why the tech sector is doing well.
And I pointed to this late last year.
When the big drop was happening, the first thing these tech companies did was eliminate the adult daycare center or foosball tables and free lunches and private chefs.
And, you know, this was the height of craziness where companies like Google and Apple and, you know, Facebook's where their employees, you know, come in and hang out for half a day and then do a little bit of work.
Look at Twitter.
Remember, Elon Musk has fired like 80% of the Twitter staff.
He fired the most expensive Twitter staff.
That lady that was making 17 million blocking people on Twitter.
I mean, this is ridiculous spending by the tech sector.
So the tech sector got rid of a lot of these overpriced managers.
Now, these managers, I mean, they were properly hired.
They were just unnecessary.
But they are highly qualified tech people.
And these highly qualified tech people are now being hired at non-tech companies to solve their tech issues.
And AI is going to be a big part of it.
So I think that companies are going to get a lot leaner.
They're going to be a lot more profitable.
And I do see a massive bull market coming.
There is another reason why I see a bull market coming.
And that's the rotation out of what I think is the most risky asset in humanity right now, which is government debt.
Unlike a company like Apple and Facebook, if that company goes bankrupt, there are some assets there.
They own buildings.
They own real estate.
They own printers.
You know, they own something.
There's something there to be sold.
They own intellectual property.
When a company goes bust, someone comes in and buys the intellectual property.
When the government bond can't be paid, you get nothing.
And throughout history, that has happened.
Countries default all the time.
It just hasn't happened to Western countries all that often.
But I think the problem we're about to see is Western countries not being able to pay their debts.
The United States had to eliminate the debt ceiling altogether.
And with this 5% interest rate, people are underestimating the exponential rise in government's liabilities of paying interest on national debt.
The national debt is now over $30 trillion.
And a few years ago, it didn't matter because interest rates were below 1%.
Now that interest rates are above 5%, 5% on $30 trillion is a lot.
Half a percent on $30 trillion is negligible.
But 5% on $30 trillion is a lot.
So government's biggest expense three years from now in the United States is not going to be defense spending.
It's not going to be health care.
It's going to be paying interest on debt, which is the most unproductive way to spend money ever.
And I would stay away from government bonds.
They're going to be okay for the next few years.
But they can crash to zero as quickly as Bitcoin just went up $5,000.
Some great points, Tone.
Really interesting points.
Love your perspective on all things AI and especially, you know, talking about government bonds and things of that nature.
And I want to pass it on over to the rest of the panel just to save some time and be mindful of your time, brother.
But I'm going to pass it over to Will's Outlook.
And I see the space is now filled up.
So, ladies and gentlemen, if you guys are new to the spaces, we're here joined by Tone Vays.
And we're just talking about the state of the market.
We're talking about crypto.
We're talking about equities and things of the like.
And, you know, all things regarding Bitcoin and all that good stuff.
So, if you guys are enjoying the content, feel free to follow the speaker panel.
And if you guys enjoy these spaces, we host these throughout the week.
So, without further ado, Will's Outlook, go ahead and give us your outlook, man.
Great to have you up on the panel as always.
Well, really, I was looking for Tone's Outlook.
But, you know, I do have a scenario, though, that I want to lay out for you, Tone.
But first, I want to kind of elaborate on your conversation with AI.
Man, I'll tell you, like, at the start of the AI buzz, like, I was not on board.
I was so off sides on that, too, I think.
You know, like, AI has been – it's been a thing for a long time.
But I think when you look at it, you utilize it, you understand it.
These companies, they're not only going to replace people with AI.
They have to.
They don't have an option.
It's not even a point of firing people.
They're just not enough people to consumption, right?
So, they have to figure out ways to trim and ways to kind of work around not having the employees they were looking for
and replacing them with something more synthetic.
I really have opened up a lot to that idea.
I've opened up a lot to why the bid has been in that sector.
And why it can stick to that sector.
Because I would say when it comes to tech, it's the easiest sector to actually eliminate people
and replace that with some type of synthetic person, right?
Whether it be AI or one person, you know, in the Philippines operating through VR or AR, you know,
across the world through many different hotels or motels or whatever, you know?
There's a lot of different utilization, I think, in that sector and being able to use that, that these companies, people are bidding them
because their value will go up because their costs will go down.
And I love how you laid that out.
I think it's a really great point that a lot of people probably didn't really pick up on at the beginning.
And that's why I wanted to kind of re-elaborate, you know, kind of my thoughts behind what you said.
I would say this, too.
We talk about the halving.
We talk about when the halving comes.
The halving is not really a time limit.
And that's what a lot of people don't understand or a lot of people don't even know, you know,
especially newer people to the space.
It's the halving is created from a situation which is block solved, which only so many blocks solved can happen within so much time.
But through a bear market, those blocks decrease significantly through, you know, user activity dropping.
I want to kind of lay out a scenario and just give me your thoughts on what I'll say and kind of elaborate, you know,
your thoughts on basically what I'm stating.
So, and I'm not trying to push you towards a specific, you know, answer, answer however you feel.
So, I look at it like this.
When it comes to ordinals and things building on, we'll say Bitcoin, so on and so forth,
there's a lot of, exactly what you said, a lot of issues in that sector.
The reason that I, myself, am most interested in this is because I think that it can open the door to higher user activity,
you know, faster halvings, essentially, right?
Because activity only slows so much through that higher user activity.
So, I think anybody trying to innovate on Bitcoin, even if it's a bad take, right?
Let's say ordinals was just the worst idea ever.
I think even if it's a bad take, it would increase that halving time and increase the bull market,
a.k.a. the gold rush every single time, you know, we go through these processes of bear market bull markets
and basically decrease these downtimes that we would have to these, we'll say, sideways price action after the bear
going into the real, you know, peak of the bull.
What are your thoughts on that specifically?
Yeah, so, look, to me, it may make a difference, but it makes such a small difference that it doesn't really matter.
The halving cycle, whether it speeds up a little bit or slows down a little bit, is not the main driver.
The main driver is Bitcoin's real utility, and Bitcoin's real utility is uncomfuscated ability, censorship resistance,
El Salvador switching their country to it.
That's the main thing.
Now, I'm not saying that massive use of word mills is not going to help drive the price of Bitcoin higher.
It probably will, but it'll have a small additional effect.
Like, I know people really want to make a contribution to Bitcoin.
No matter how small it is, they just need to have a contribution, and they push for that contribution.
We see this with core developers.
It's like they're so hell-bent on getting their name permanently engraved in the Bitcoin code
that they will push for any improvement to the code, even if that improvement is completely unnecessary.
People tend to hype up Bitcoin in a way that makes sense to them, and to them it's the most important thing in the world,
when in reality, for me, it's like, yeah, it's not that important.
Like Jason Lowery, for example, tries to make an argument that Bitcoin is so critical to national security,
and the United States needs to be mining Bitcoin for national security, and he wrote a whole book about this,
and this is like his entire essence in Bitcoin, and to me, it's like, yeah, I don't care.
It's not important.
Like, what's important is people putting their wealth in something that their government can't take.
That's way more important.
Like, to me, they don't even come close.
And same thing with ordinals.
Like, I don't care.
Like, fine, you like them, use them.
But there's this desire, like, just because one person really likes something,
they try to convince others to go along with it and do the same thing.
And we're all guilty of it, especially in Bitcoin.
Like, when I first got into Bitcoin, I was, like, telling everybody about it.
And now I'm like, yeah, you'll figure it out.
I kind of grew out of it, so I don't bother convincing anyone.
They'll figure it out on their own.
But when it comes to these side things of Bitcoin, I'm not saying they're bad.
But they're not, you know, they're not as good as they're claimed.
I'm not, so that's kind of my view on it.
Same thing with BRC20 tokens.
Like, I'd rather see that stuff on a Bitcoin sidechain where it doesn't bloat these fees.
And while I don't mind high fees, high fees pay miners, and miners secure the Bitcoin network.
So for half the people that used to yell and scream how, well, if Bitcoin's going to die because there's not enough Bitcoin subsidy,
and so what's going to happen?
Well, Satoshi even said that fees are going to rise by default.
But a lot of people think that fees is not enough for miners to keep mining.
And my view is miners will keep mining at a loss.
My view is that Bitcoin is so important to the world that people will mine Bitcoin and lose money on it.
And it's a hard concept for people to understand, except every person in this space pays for an Internet bill.
And you do not profit from the Internet.
In fact, each and every one of you pays for more than one Internet bill.
You have Internet on your cell phone.
You have Internet in your house.
If you have more than one house, you pay for those Internets.
If you have kids, you pay for their Internets.
How many Internet bills do you pay?
And you don't make money from the Internet.
And the reason you pay all these Internet bills is because Internet is so important to your life.
You're willing to pay money for it.
How is that different than Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is so important to certain people's lives.
They'll be willing to pay to mine Bitcoin.
And same thing with companies.
There are companies that would not exist if it wasn't for Bitcoin.
Why would they not spend a few million dollars a year mining Bitcoin at a loss in order to make billions of dollars for their company?
So there's lots of reasons to mine Bitcoin.
You don't need these additional use cases for Bitcoin.
That's why I'd rather see these use cases on sidechains where fees remain small for the average person who just wants to use unchained Bitcoin and is not ready for Lightning yet.
I really appreciate your answer there, Tom.
Like, that's the most down-to-earth, grounded response I've ever heard, man.
I'm not going to lie.
Like, that was really good, man.
Like, and I don't come in, I don't boast people, man.
I'm a straight shooter when I talk to people.
But, yeah, I really appreciated your response there.
Awesome, man.
Now we have Doc Hollywood.
Doc Hollywood, never seen you before, but welcome to the panel.
Welcome to the show.
And more than anything, welcome to the Because Bitcoin brand, brother.
Great to have you, man.
What do you got for us?
What do you got for Brother Tone?
Thanks for having me.
I've been waiting to talk to Tone Vey since 2017 when I was watching his videos and probably learned the most of trading and kind of Bitcoin culture from the man up here.
It's great to hear his take.
I really respect that.
I also, you know, come from these different communities where I'm trying to urge everyone to slow down and not to partake in this Bitcoin gold rush and to really educate yourself with the culture of Bitcoin, with Satoshi Nakamoto's vision.
And for the laser-eyed maxis, I'm here to respect the ground that you've paid for everybody here.
So this is my real question, Tone, and I've been waiting to ask it since February.
What do you think it will take for a Bitcoin laser-eyed maxi, who we have all the respect for, to move one Bitcoin from one of their 2009 wallets to buy, not a BRC20, which is another shitcoin on Bitcoin, but to buy a piece of art that they like?
What would it take, do you think?
That's my question to you, Tone.
It just takes them to love the art, man.
Like, we've all done it.
Like, look at the Bitcoin trading cards.
People are spending thousands of dollars on Bitcoin trading cards.
Hell, I did.
I bought a couple of boxes.
You just have to find something you like.
See, Bitcoin is altering the collector's market, where I have a nice piece of art on my wall.
I don't like talking about it too much.
I also bought one of the first Bitcoin watches.
Like, it just takes more.
Like, look, there are a lot more people in this world.
There's 7 billion people now.
How many people were around during the age of Van Gogh, right, during our renaissance, where some of the greatest art came?
A lot less people, right?
And yet, some of our greatest art is from that point in time.
People were more selective.
Like, you want to separate a Bitcoiner from his Bitcoin?
Offer him something.
Offer him something impressive.
Offer him something better than Bitcoin.
And he'll buy it.
He, she, they'll buy it.
And right now, Bitcoin still has a high chance of going higher.
But I'm telling you, man, a lot of people missed the exit at 60,000.
You only hear about the 5 or 20 people that exited perfectly at 65,000.
The majority of people did not.
And I talked to a lot of people that missed the exit at 65,000.
And so many of them are like, I can't wait for it to get to 80, 90.
I will diversify.
Yeah, most people will start diversifying their Bitcoin at about 100,000 of Bitcoin.
And then they're going to be pissed that Bitcoin went to 300,000.
But they are going to diversify out of their Bitcoin at 100,000.
And you better be ready to offer them something they want to spend that Bitcoin on.
It could, might as well be a piece of art.
But will it be digital art?
That's trickier.
Because us as Bitcoin maxis, and I wasn't, you know, the crazy laser eye Bitcoin maxi.
Yeah, more of a realistic one.
And us as Bitcoin maxis understand that when it comes to digital scarcity, Bitcoin is the biggest scarce digital asset.
But when it comes to physical scarcity, we also understand the value of a nice piece of art in the physical world.
Not in the digital world.
In the digital world, Bitcoin is king for us, and it may stay that way forever.
But in the physical world, there are still things like, man, like, again, I've been talking about Bitcoin for a decade.
How much longer are people going to talk about Bitcoin without spending their Bitcoin?
But eventually old age hits us all.
So I would rather be impressed with physical goods than digital goods.
Because digitally, because of my full understanding of digital scarcity, it's going to be hard to be Bitcoin digitally.
But physically, sure.
Do any of the rare Satoshis, you know, there's like only 300 and something rare Satoshis that, you know, to the, you know, coming from like the Ordinal's Protocol, they've assigned different types of traits to Satoshis.
Do those rare Satoshis when there's only 300 or there's like an epic or whatever Satoshi that can only be mined, the first Satoshi mined after the halving.
Like, there's only going to be a few of those.
We're inscribing a Banksy, right?
That's what I thought was a way to get a lot of attention to the space and bring in new entrants and collectors rather than trying to sell it to the people that are already here.
I'm looking at it like, how do we reach the masses and how do we get people interested in Bitcoin that never had, you know, any reason to get involved?
But go ahead, Tom.
See, I'm looking at it from the complete opposite perspective.
And from the opposite perspective, what is more important, Satoshi collectibles or Satoshi the financial asset?
And Satoshi the financial asset is more important.
But the only way Satoshi the financial asset can achieve its greatness is if every Satoshi is fungible with every other Satoshi.
So while these efforts and valiant efforts to, you know, make these Satoshis unique actually takes away from Bitcoin's fungibility.
And if Bitcoin's fungibility that every Satoshi is as equal as every other Satoshi ends up in serious jeopardy, guys like me will push for a soft fork to eliminate all identifiable marks on a Satoshi.
So you have to be real careful with your end goal of what the Ordnose protocols are trying to do because you can be overruled by, you know, the node running diehard purists of Bitcoin.
Great having you on the panel, brother.
Let's go on over to BRC20 coins and then we'll pass it on over to LadyTraderRaw and then to Tucker and Snorlax.
BRC, what's going on, brother?
Great to have you on the panel again.
Hope you're doing good, man.
What's up, brother?
How's it going?
Thanks for inviting me up to speak.
I appreciate it.
So I just want to touch on a couple of things Tone said.
Well, well said on a lot of your thoughts.
You know, a lot of us are into ordinals and things to to make Bitcoin fun again and spend our Bitcoin.
I've followed you a while as far as trading goes.
I do like some of your points as, you know, the 27.5 ranges.
We may follow some of those same different numbers.
I do like a 31.2 to 31.5 range.
And then if, you know, the monthly closes over kind of where we're at, I do like running back towards that 50s.
Um, to touch on that, I do think a lot of it has to do with on-chain activity now, since a lot of people aren't buying, you know, Bitcoin per se or assets with the current situation around the world economics at the moment.
So I've got some questions where I've been kind of going in some rabbit holes and reading a lot of these messages on chain since you've been in Bitcoin a lot longer than I have.
You know, when you see this recursive stuff coming up now to to limit that size on chain to really make things that are immutable, say music you lost back in the day from LimeWires or hidden underground.
stuff that you can't find anymore that would would be stored on Bitcoin forever.
You know, I see a lot of a lot of things about Wikipedia links and stuff that they've broken down, naval codes and messages on that stuff back, you know, back in 2013.
So why do you think it took this long for things like recursive to come up when those are messages back in 2013 about using scaling size and stuff on Bitcoin?
Man, that's a really good question.
It's a hard question to answer.
I think one of the reasons why things like these projects, like BRC20, like Ordinals, the reason why it takes so hard to get them moving on Bitcoin is because there's very little profit to be made from it.
One of the reasons why everyone pushes Ethereum stuff is because people are holding Ethereum and same thing with Solana and all these others and the pool of people who you're trying to sell these projects to, your pool of investors into these ideas.
When this pool of investors is coming from Ethereum and Solanas of the world, these people are already proven that they're willing to invest in anything and everything.
And in order for this stuff to really evolve on Bitcoin or even to get moving on Bitcoin, like what happened with Ordinals and what happened with BRC20, it needs to be done by someone who knows they will probably not profit from it.
It has to be more of a passion project and not for money.
And second, it has to be simple.
And since a lot of this stuff has already worked its way through the shitcoin space for years, it was simple for someone to just package it all together and, you know, tweak a couple of things and launch it on Bitcoin.
So it has to, this is why Bitcoin doesn't have to be the first mover, right?
And eventually everything is going to get on top of it because by launching on top of it, there's very little, you know, I think I explained it.
There's little profit to be made from launching it.
So it must have already been, the tech must have already been worked out somewhere.
Appreciate that response.
Awesome.
Good stuff, brother.
All right.
Now we're going to pass it on over to LadyTraderRaw.
What's going on, miss?
Great to have you back on the panel.
Hey, thank you so much for the invite.
Doing great.
Looks like we have pretty bullish moves today that we are seeing in crypto market in general.
Again, we talked about it yesterday as well about just being cautious.
So I still am bearish short term until the end of the year, until the next halving.
I absolutely do not see it, you know, going above, even if we get above a little bit, you know, 32 to 35.
I don't even see it going there.
But if it did, definitely not above that.
And I do see some bearish news coming in pretty soon.
I don't know what it would be, but just following the historical data, which is what I've done so consistently and very, very much like a robot when it comes to historical data.
I was able to get a nice short off of 30.5K.
That was my entry today.
So I'm in that trade.
I don't I normally don't take day trades.
It's every once in a while I do if it's a really neat setup.
So it was one of those setups.
So I'm carefully watching that.
If the price moves back up there, I'm definitely going to get out.
And but my bias is short still for this market.
It's going to be choppy.
It's going to be confusing.
If you go back on the chart, if you look at what actually happened in 2019, we saw some pretty similar moves on Bitcoin back then as well.
We had and it was right before halving.
Right. This is what happens.
What happens is that according to historical data, this has happened pretty much every time since the existence of Bitcoin.
Right. So if you go back in 2013, we saw a major run up after that 2012 halving.
We saw it. So a bull market, then a bear market the following year, which was 2014, where we all got crushed, myself included, actually, didn't know what we were doing.
And then we saw a similar move in 2017, right after that 2016 halving.
Right. We saw Bitcoin make a mega move in 2017.
Price made a top in December.
And then we saw the bear year, which was 2018.
And that was actually something that I was anticipating.
In 2021, we saw something very similar.
We saw the halving in 2020 and then a mega bull run in 2021.
And then 2022 was the bull of the bear year, actually.
And the price got crushed. Right.
And then it did bottom out in November last year.
So and when it bottomed out last year, this was very similar to if you go back and look at 2018, exactly the same price action.
Right. We had the barrier in 2018.
Price got crushed and then it bottomed out end of the year.
And then it started to make that half the next half of the year.
2019 was actually bullish.
And it was something I also predicted this year very publicly that we will see that six months pump.
You know, the first five to six months, we will see that pump.
And then the second half of the year would be bearish, which is what we saw in 2019.
Right. This is based on historical data.
It's not my personal opinion.
This is what has happened in the past.
Will it continue indefinitely?
I don't know. At some point, it may stop working.
Right. At that point.
Happy to comment.
Yes, go ahead.
Yeah, happy to comment on that.
So I also put out in the beginning of the year that we should be entering the bullish cycle.
And Bitcoin tends to start rising in price with approximately 60 weeks before the halving.
So within that year time range, Bitcoin starts to rise.
Now, in prior, right before prior halvings, there did tend to be a couple of crashes.
Now, it's really hard to judge the 2020 halving because the crash that took place before the halving had everything to do with COVID and the thing that happened over at BitMEX.
And so that was a 2020 halving.
And the 2016 halving, yes, we also fell quite a bit before the halving, but we also went up quite a bit before the halving.
We bottomed in August.
There was a double bottom where we fell to below 200, then rallied all the way to 500, I think, before going back down to 250 and then hanging out at 250 for a little while.
Then we rallied again before the halving.
So I personally think that not only are the $15,000 lows are in, the $25,000 lows are in as well.
But that doesn't mean we're going to go straight up.
My price target for the halving is approximately $40,000, which is not that different from the current price of $30,000.
Now, to me, the biggest indication that the bull market is back was the way we pulled down to $20,000.
All my best TA signals all coincided on that pullback to $20,000 and the massive rally off that $20,000 between my MRI indicator, multiple moving averages, the prior swing high support.
Like, everything coincided on that rally off of $20,000, which is why that was the most bullish I was.
The move from $20,000 to $23,000, that $3,000 move, that's when everything changed for me.
When we were consolidating, you know, at $16,000, $17,000 at the end of last year, I was still potentially leaning even a little bit more bearish.
And when we pulled into this $25,000 last week, I was leaning bullish, but it wasn't as clean as the $20,000 bounce.
That $20,000 bounce changed everything for me, so right now I am bullish.
I'm not expecting, like, massive upswings.
And there are not even black swans, but we know Mt. Gox Trust is about to sell coins.
We know there are other headwinds.
BlockFi is going to sell coins.
So many people sitting in losing positions since two years ago that are dying to break even.
There's going to be all these headwinds, but I just don't see them crashing the price down to any significant levels.
Because I think that there is enough people right now that are already in FOMO on that fear of missing out.
And there's also a chance that countries have started mining Bitcoin, besides El Salvador, with this geopolitical mess that is happening over in Eastern Europe.
So, and if countries haven't started mining Bitcoin yet, I think they're about to.
So, as the price rises, I think it's actually going to bring more interest than less.
And that's why I'm not anticipating significant lows.
Of course, anything can happen.
Yeah.
No, I can definitely see that being a case.
And if we even go back, like, all the way to 2015, right, if we look at the charts there,
there were some bearish moves in the second half of the year, but it only lasted until about, you know, August.
It was choppy and bearish.
And then, obviously, we did see that major crash in 2020 before halving.
But I'm not talking about that crash, though.
I'm talking about what happened in, you know, 2019 before that, right?
The second half of 2019 in which we didn't really have...
Yeah, let me comment on that.
Let me comment on that.
The run-up in the first half of 2019 went from $3,000, and I'm just doing this by memory.
I don't have the charts in front of me.
I'm actually sitting in a hotel lobby.
So, from $3,000 to $4,000 was a bit of a slow bleed.
But then we rallied from $4,000 all the way to $14,000.
That is a massive upswing.
And right at the very top, in June or July 2019, when Bitcoin was at $14,000, I remember doing a video with my friend Ugly Old Gold, who's in his 70s, and he's been a trader forever.
And he talked about the backwardation that took place.
While Bitcoin was $14,000, the futures markets, three months out, were pricing Bitcoin at $15,000.
And we basically called the top because the price of Bitcoin went up too far too fast.
We're talking a 4x move in a few months.
Now, for Bitcoin to repeat that, I don't think we went up that fast from $15,000.
But even from $15,000 to go 4x, we're talking $60,000.
So, yes, if we go up to $60,000 in the next few months, we can repeat the 2019 scenario.
But we're not rising fast enough.
And the futures markets are not 8%, 9% into backwardation.
It's just we're not rising fast enough for that.
And this is the same view that I have as to why I was laughing at people that were predicting a 1929-style crash of the S&P 500.
We're not even close.
In order to get a 1929-style crash of the stock market, you need to double the price of the stock market for four years in a row.
Like, if you look at what the stock market did in the late 1920s, I mean, the stock market was rising 30%, 40% a year for like four or five years.
And then we had a 90% crash.
And I think we're not even close.
Now, if the S&P doubles or triples in price over the next two to three years, which I actually believe that it will, I think the S&P is going to double or triple in the very near future.
And that is the kind of environment that is needed to get a massive crash.
And Bitcoin is no different.
It's just on a shorter timescale.
Yeah, no, I can definitely see that perspective for sure, that we haven't really pumped fast enough, you know, for it to make that kind of move.
So I guess we'll have to wait and see how it plays out.
I do see, however, today S&P 500, which on daily chart, I mean, to me, it did create that, you know, reverse head and shoulder, right, which can be extremely bullish.
However, I noticed that for the last few days, it's been decoupled sort of from BTC, right?
So Bitcoin has been making those green candles on the daily chart.
S&P 500 is making those red candles on the chart.
So at some point, they are currently decoupled, but at some point, it's going to start to follow, you know, they're going to start to follow one another.
So that would be very interesting to see where, you know, we will end up.
But this was a beautiful move today, you know, the way up and, you know, hitting that really the shoulder of that, the head and shoulder pattern on daily chart on BTC.
So very excited to see what we have in store.
My game plan is still waiting out until, you know, the end of the year and really purchase whatever I need to buy for the long-term hold in January.
You know, hopefully that's my game plan.
So, Will, before we pass it on over to you, I want to give Tucker Snorlax some time with Tone.
Snorlax, if there's anything that you want to bring up to Tone's attention or anything you want to ask him, feel free to do so, brother.
Hey, guys, unfortunately, I am running low on time, so maybe like five to seven more minutes.
No problem, brother.
No problem, brother Tone.
Perfect.
Yeah, no, I only had one question for you, man.
I saw in your bio that, you know, you were a quant on Wall Street.
I wanted to ask you kind of more about that experience and how it's shaped the way you view markets today.
All right, so for full disclosure, I might have stretched the word quant a little bit, but you do get a certain number of characters in the description.
So, I was on the quant team, but in order to really be a quant, you need a PhD.
I have a master's degree in financial engineering, and my contribution to the quant team was managing the data in and out of the risk models that we were building.
And, unfortunately, I spent my entire Wall Street career on the risk side of the industry, not on the trade side.
So, there's two types of quants, you know, those that write the trading models and those that write the risk models.
I was on the team that was writing the risk models.
And so, I was at Bear Stearns during 2008, but our unit was actually needed.
We were building risk models for the hedge funds and running hedge fund data through our risk models so that the investors in these hedge funds have an idea of how risky their investments are with these hedge funds.
So, in 2008, when, you know, hedge funds are collapsing left and right, our services are actually badly needed by the pension funds, by the fund of funds, by, you know, CalPERS, the California Teachers Pension Fund, which is the biggest pension fund in America.
So, that's been my Wall Street experience is building these models.
And, it's not as exciting as, you know, the movie Wolf of Wall Street will have you believe.
In fact, the majority of the people that work on Wall Street, you know, just go to work, do their job, come home, and live a pretty boring life.
And, that was kind of my experience with Wall Street.
It was more on the boring side than on the exciting side.
It's a lot more fun being a trader.
Definitely more exciting.
All right, we'll bring it on over to Tucker and then Will's Outlook, and then we'll start wrapping up.
Tucker, what's going on, brother?
Yeah, I know you're short on time, Tone, so I'll keep it quick.
I guess I just, I wanted to talk about the bond market super quick and wanted to get your thoughts.
I'm kind of under the assumption that the Fed will have to end up cutting to zero.
And, it's, so that's one thing.
In the somewhat near future.
But, I guess number two is, it's difficult for me to get kind of long-term bullish risk in general, while the three-month, ten-year is so inverted.
You know what I mean?
Like, it's just, it's been too accurate every time of predicting downturns and recessions.
So, just wanted to throw that to you.
Yeah, so, two quick comments.
One, that's been, that, in a way, that has been your minor shortfall, is that while I completely agree with you, the inversion of the yield curve has led to recessions.
But, it's led to recessions like a year to a year and a half later.
And, the inverted yield curve can stay irrationally inverted for a long time.
And, we have an unprecedented irrational inversion of the yield curve because the rates were zero for so long.
So, we were in an environment where, while I agree it is scary that the inverted yield curve does lead to recessions, I'm not worried about it until later.
And, with the amount of money printing that they're doing, here's one more thing that I, I'm not sure I mentioned earlier.
People are going to be scared of putting their money into government debt.
So, they will rush into the safety of the stock market.
And, it won't matter how irrational earning ratios get.
It won't matter that Tesla's valuation implies that every person in the world has three Teslas.
It won't matter.
It'll be this irrational push into equities because they'll feel that's the safest place for their money.
So, between all of those things, and yes, there probably was already a recession, but the government has altered its definition.
Plus, you have to figure with this automation AI stuff, as we discussed earlier, that could also have a bit of an effect where you don't realize it's a recession because some things are going up in price a lot, but some things are not.
But, like, the AI, and I don't think there's anything magical about AI, it's just better computer algorithms, they're going to make life, you know, better and cheaper in certain ways.
So, I'm not that scared yet, and I'm letting the TA prove it to me.
Like, hey, the moment we take out a significant low on the S&P, I'll be bearish.
Until then, I'll, you know, I'll ride the wave into a new all-time high on the S&P.
Good stuff.
Will's Outlook, man.
Any closing statements you got for Tone before he leaves, brother?
Well, look, I'm not even going to waste your time.
Everything you've said has been on par with my exact thoughts, man.
Like, I really appreciate your time.
I'm in the same boat as you as far as following the market in the same exact way.
I've also discussed the yield curve and stuff like that, and that it comes later.
I think a lot of people, you know, they don't realize the lag that happens with these markets.
But, yeah, definitely don't want to waste your time.
I appreciate your time, and I hope we can chat more in the future.
All right, cool.
So, with that being said, thank you so much, Tone, for taking the time out of your day to talk some shop.
Feel free to come on up anytime.
We do these spaces throughout the week, brother.
So, you know, hopefully looking forward to having you up on the panel more, especially as we get to having cycle underway.
So, shout out to all the speakers as well.
Tucker, BRC20Coins, Will's Outlook, Snorlax, DocHollywood, and LadyTraderRA.
And for the new listeners here on the Twitter spaces, we are BecauseBitcoin.
We host these spaces throughout the week here on Twitter spaces and on YouTube.
If you enjoyed this conversation, feel free to give us a like.
And, of course, give us a like.
That's for YouTube.
Apologies for that, fellas.
Feel free to give us a follow and turn on bell notice to keep up with real-time market news data and to keep up with all of our shows.
Really means the world to us, guys, that you guys are showing up to these spaces pretty consistently.
And Tone, you know, this was a great conversation.
Learned a lot.
This was some meaningful and deep conversation towards all things, you know, Bitcoin.
And we even touched upon some AI and some broader macro outlooks and all that stuff.
And, you know, glad you got to chop it up with us.
And, you know, it was quite a sight to see you interacting with Will's Outlook.
Potentially you can rebrand, sir, to Tone's Outlook.
I think that would be pretty cool, man.
But, you know, we won't hold you up for any longer, man.
You know, I hope you have a good rest of your day, man.
And God bless you, your family, your friends.
And best of luck to you, man, for, you know, for what's coming in the next couple of years.
I think we're in for a good treat, man.
I think we're going to go into a super cycle.
I think you want to say something, Wabi.
Yeah, no, I was just going to say thank you for having me up.
I had a good time.
Thanks for the really good questions.
And, yeah, happy to come back.
And, yeah, check out some of the events that I organized, guys.
Unconfuscatable in Las Vegas in December and Financial Summit down in Dubai this year in November.
Oh, well, we'll definitely go to one of those conferences in November, brother.
And hopefully we can meet you and talk some shop in person, man.
Really great conversation.
That was perfect.
So, Tone, man, have a good rest of your day.
And stay safe out there, brother.
And as usual, guys, this conversation is recorded here on Twitter and will be uploaded onto our YouTube channel.
So, appreciate you coming on, Tone.
I'm not sure if anyone else wants to stick around.
But, Tone, we'll let you go now, brother.
Thanks, man.
I don't want to hold you up too long, man.
So, take care and God bless you, man.
It was a great time talking all things markets with you, man.
Really appreciate it.
I'll stick around for a minute, Wabi, if you want.
Yeah, no problem, man.
No problem.
I think we can talk some shop for about, like, 10 to 15 minutes.
But, Will, is there anything that you wanted to bring up?
Yeah, I wanted to touch base on exactly what he said.
Man, this has been my exact conversation that I keep having with people.
It's like, dude, the yield curve.
I'm not saying you, Tucker.
Obviously, you're just wanting to get a different perspective and see if his perspective has changed from what you've heard.
But, like, I've discussed this with a lot of bears.
I'm like, dude, the yield curve is something that comes later.
It just comes later.
You've got to wait for the un-inversion.
Once the un-inversion starts to happen, be cautious, right?
All that good stuff.
But, like, it's been a major, I would say, point of my consensus on why I'm directionally along right now.
So, I'm just kind of playing the moves as they come, man.
Like, I'm not even worried anymore.
Like, before there was a lot of worry, I would say.
Like, you know, the way things were looking.
But I would say right now, like, I'm just looking for value and continuing to buy value.
That's my biggest thing, man.
I think it's been a pretty good week so far, man.
A lot of these altcoins have rebounded pretty hard, man.
And so far, my thesis with the optimism token outperforming Arbitrum has come to pass, man.
I don't really see anything else on Ethereum as far as, like, as far as the blue chips go outperforming.
And when I talk blue chips, I'm talking about, like, a basket of altcoins that tend to lead in the higher market cap region.
And I'm comparing this to 2019, right, where we had things like Synthetix Network, REN, and also Chainlink lead that initial, like, altcoin rally.
And I think for the next altcoin rally, whether what's going on right now, I think, like, tokens like Optimism are going to be leading the next bull run.
But, you know, if we do get a buying opportunity to buy Optimism once again at, like, under 90 cents, I'm just going to double down on my bag once again, man.
I think it's going to do phenomenal.
But I'm definitely going to take some off the table, probably, like, 5%, 10%, rotate that into something else.
But what were you going to say, Will?
I was just going to say, like, I'm glad you're bullish on Optimism.
I think there's a lot of value out there, right?
Like, just a lot, a lot.
Like, I can go through charts all day long and find you stuff rolling floors that have real value that are being used in every single big business right now, right?
Yeah.
You have to show you sectors that continue to get liquidity from who?
From the people that print it, the government, right?
EV market is a government printing machine.
Will, and Tether also printed 2 billion plus over the last week or so.
I think that had something to attribute to this current pump.
You know what I'm saying?
But, yeah, that alt drop that occurred almost two weeks ago, man, it's still sticking in my head.
Like, almost every long, I'm pretty sure every long just got destroyed, like, completely decimated.
I posted, like, 20 charts showing, like, so many bullish divs on so many different altcoins it wasn't even funny.
Yeah.
And, like, all of them are bouncing.
All of them are bouncing.
Yeah.
Lady Trader, what's going on, miss?
Hey, so I just wanted to jump in real quick and talk about AI because I did hear you mention it, that there was a discussion, which, unfortunately, I missed.
But AGIX, which is one of the top alts for AI, Singularity, that's actually one ecosystem that I'm very carefully tracking because they are launching a lot of ecosystem coins.
There was one recently, Cogito, they're doing something with green coins.
So, you know how we have stable coins right now.
Now, this one, they came up with a new concept called Tracer Coins, and this is actually tied to, instead of being tied to a fiat currency, it's tied to a green index, which was pretty neat.
So, AGIX.
That's a lot.
A green index?
Green index.
Yes.
And you know Sophia.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
You know Sophia the robot, right?
So, Sophia the robot, that's part of Singularity.
The AGIX, I feel like they are kind of being the underdogs right now because not a lot of people are talking about it.
Obviously, the people know about AGIX because it's listed on Binance.
It's out there.
It is one of the top alts in the AI sector.
But I don't see a lot of chatter about those ecosystem coins like Sophiaverse, which is going to come out soon.
Cogito is already launched.
And it's like, people, why are you not paying attention to this?
It's pretty crazy.
Yeah.
Yeah, I think for assets like that, which are way higher on the risk curve, I think people would ape into that once QE is on and all that stuff.
And I think Pepe was an anomaly, to be honest, because it's the original meme of the internet, right?
But, you know, that's doing pretty well today.
And I believe Max like called out the exact bottom along with Will's outlook on the Pepe BTC pair, which is up quite significantly.
And so, you know, it's been going pretty well.
I see we have Matt here on the listener panel as well.
Matt, if you want to come on up and talk some shop.
You know, you know, he was one of our fellow bulls that was also enthusiastic just as much as I was when, you know, all it's capitulated and BTC went to 25K.
And, you know, one thing that he said was, you know, for the first time since BTC was at 19K, I'm excited to buy again.
And you had every single narrative really having the stars aligning, right?
And it's usually, like, the silver lining for the local bond to be formed is always, like, something related to Binance.
And, man, if Binance was just a regular, like, TradFi Institute, it would have been shut down by now.
But...
I know a lot of people talk about it.
It's just like, could they eliminate their U.S. one short?
Like, it's...
Yeah.
But that doesn't mean anything.
Like, all they're going to do is freeze assets, discuss it, go to court, yadda yadda.
Guys, I also did want to mention that there was a wick.
There was a wick on Binance U.S. to over 100K.
And this is, like, the second time.
It's the second time that it happened.
I posted it last night.
Yeah.
The first wick to 100K plus...
130K.
...was in December.
Yeah, the first one was in December of last year.
And then we rallied from, like, 16 to 21 in a short period of time.
And now we have our second one.
So, you know, perhaps we do hit that 35K target, which I'm eyeing.
35K to 37K is my minimum target.
But conservative target, you know, early 40Ks.
And maximum, like, bull scenario, like 50K, early 50Ks.
So, you know, I'm pretty enthusiastic about what's going on.
And, of course, like, you know, buying LDO at $1.50, sub $1.50, I mean, dude, that's a deal you can't refuse.
I'm more bullish.
I would say, too, if you go back to the date where we were at the bottom of Bitcoin, I think 24.8,
like, look through my timeline and look how many charts I posted with Bitcoin.
You have a good outlook, man.
I think we're going to start doing some little rebrands, right?
Me and Tucker are going to do a rebrand.
We're just going to post some gym videos.
So, maybe Will can also rebrand and just, like, you know, teach people how to cook, right?
I think that would make for some good content, right?
Instead of just talking about, like, why we're bullish or bearish, I think we should just pivot, a complete 180 pivot,
and just turn into, like, a fitness page or a cooking page.
I think that offers some quality entertainment, man.
And, Matt, I actually had an idea for you, bro.
I understand you like going biking and rock climbing and all that stuff.
So, perhaps you can introduce the rock climbing community to Bitcoin, man.
What do you say?
How are you feeling, brother?
Yeah, I feel like there's plenty of Bitcoin surfers.
So, I'm going to have to think of something, some untouched, maybe the half-marathon, marathon crowd.
I don't know.
My wife's got the triathlons on lock.
So, I don't know.
There's something, like, we can play around with that.
Plenty of time at the bull market, right?
Good stuff, man.
I like hearing those words from you, bull market.
So, what's going on, bro?
How are you feeling with the market, man?
Hut 8, another phenomenal day, man.
Truly another phenomenal day.
Yeah, all the quality Bitcoin miners, the best-in-class Bitcoin miners are absolutely ripping.
That was definitely to be expected.
You know, if Bitcoin's putting in a 5% or 10%, you've got to expect the best-in-class miners to put in a 15% or 25%.
And, you know, honestly, I don't think they're done.
I forget who mentioned it earlier, but as you move out across the risk curve, smart money is looking for deals across the board.
They're not willing to buy NVIDIA, Apple, Amazon, etc. at 52-week highs.
Now they're looking for the mid-caps and the small-caps.
Who hasn't, you know, where's the diamonds in the rough?
Where's the stuff that got mispriced?
Who never capitulated in the bear market and is looking to rise out?
High beta moves, man.
High beta moves.
Yep, exactly.
So, you know, I have my favorites.
I'm not here to shill anything.
But for me, the range for Bitcoin, though, is still $25,000 to $31,000.
Can't talk about $39,000 or $45,000 or $50,000 until we break and hold $31,000.
That is resistance going all the way back to, correct me if I'm wrong, but winter 2020.
And then it ended up being support in 2021, the summer sell-off from China mining ban.
But anyway, long story short, we got to break and hold $31,000.
So the healthy move here is consolidate right here underneath that $30,000 or $29,000.
Let the shorts and the bears get confident again.
But I'm trying to add some shorts right here as rocket fuel to punch through.
That would be the healthy move.
Great stuff, man.
Great stuff, dude.
I am still of the belief that, you know, two years from now, this is going to be looked at as a big accumulation zone, man, to be honest.
And, you know, I still haven't opened an equities account yet, man.
And I just, I don't feel, I don't feel the excitement.
Maybe, maybe if coin gets under like $30,000, something like that.
No, no, no.
Yeah.
Forget coin.
Yeah.
I don't think we're going to retest those levels.
But.
So, Marathon, Riot, I can name them all day long.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Agreed.
Clean Spark.
And let's see who else.
Cypher.
Like, if I couldn't own Bitcoin, I would short coin and long one of those best-in-class miners.
But all the news that you've been repeating recently this week, this is not good news for Coinbase.
Every single ETF that's getting filed, every single bit of news that we learned about the new EDX market maker exchange run by the biggest TradFi players in the biz, more or less greenlit by the SEC.
They're already in business with the SEC on all other types of equities and commodities.
Like, none of that is good news for Coinbase.
So, I don't want to own any Coinbase at all.
You got a good point there.
Coinbase, I think, can be risky, but I'm sure we will have some opportunities on it.
But I agree with those ETFs right now, Marathon Digital, the miners, and then Riot.
Those two I definitely have on my watch list.
And I'm waiting to have probably one of my biggest trades of my lifetime on those two.
That's what I'm waiting for.
I was able to get early, early options on some Bitcoin mining companies through leaps through 2025.
Like HUD-8, for example, I got a 100 contract option for 50 cents on HUD-8 with a 350 strike for January 25.
So, I'm just chilling on that right now.
I kind of did those moves when Ordinal started moving and saw this on-chain activity.
So, that's where a lot of my plays are in my Roth right now.
Good stuff, guys.
I think this is a good place to wrap up.
Unless anyone else wants to bring up any subjects, we can entertain the conversation for a couple more minutes.
But if this is all we got, I think this is a great place to wrap up.
But, yeah, I want to thank everyone in the audience.
Thank you all so much for showing support day in and day out.
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Goodbye.
And God bless you all.
And God bless you all.
God bless you all.
God bless you all.
