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Breakouts pending: $atom $link. $zeph buy zone
Recorded: Dec. 24, 2023 Duration: 3:25:14Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you for listening.
Okay, I got disconnected here.
Back here, one sec.
All right, holiday weekend.
Had to go to work this morning at 4 a.m.
Let's see if Noob can get connected here.
If anyone else wants to hang out, feel free to hop on up if you're free.
Noob, I think you're having a hard time connecting.
Can you guys hear me?
Okay, cool.
I think Noob might need to drop and come back.
It's like I got a phone call and then, like, this stupid app just, like, kicked me for some reason.
Sometimes you can multitask with a phone call and sometimes you can't.
I don't understand what the deal is on this thing.
But it just kind of varies.
Let me add you as a co-host or something, man.
Okay.
In case you could get disconnected or something.
Yeah, or whatever it's, like, but, yeah, so there's this, like, did you hear anything new about this, you know, this random Mexi FUD going on or nothing specific?
Yeah, I did.
I saw a new post, too, about it.
I guess, like, their CEO made, maybe, I don't know who exactly it was, but somebody showed, like, a screenshot of them saying that it was their CEO account and then them saying it wasn't.
And then recently, like, an hour or so ago, they just made a post trying to clarify what it was.
But I don't know.
It looks shady, to be honest.
Does the exchange look shady or the?
The whole thing, yeah.
I mean, I don't know.
Like, it's hard to know if they're bullshitting or if they're just, like, covering tracks or if they're being legit and serious, but.
What country are they out of?
I don't know.
Are they Seychelles or are they actually?
I think they're Seychelles, but I don't know exactly.
I know that a lot of people are exiting.
So if they survive this, then it would be good.
And, you know, it would show, like, strength, but.
Hmm.
Okay.
Hey, Lucky.
What's up, man?
Long time.
Hey, what's up, Sefi?
How you doing?
Oh, pretty good.
What are you up to?
Sam old, Sam old.
Okay, that's good.
I'm living life.
Hey, noob.
How are you?
All good?
Yeah, I'm good.
I think it's just bullshit with this maxi thing.
Yeah.
I mean, for the longest time, people had no trouble.
Most people have no trouble with the exchange.
I don't really know.
Survive a bloody bear market and then go bankrupt.
It doesn't make sense.
So I moved quite a bit of money into there this morning.
And I had to sell them again.
What's that?
I made this all once again because I gave them some money.
No, I've never had any problems so far.
Like, I just use VPN via Switzerland or something.
But I don't really do any futurist trading or anything.
I think that's where a majority of the problems were.
But it seems like if I just buy stuff and I just send it out of the exchange,
I haven't had any problems.
I even stopped using a VPN.
I just bring it on.
Oh, really?
Trade it.
Yeah, because it works.
You're just like, well, apparently the phone app works if you,
one way or the other.
Once you've sort of like registered the first time.
Yeah, once you get an account, you can use the phone app without a VPN.
And it still logs your, like when you go to withdrawal,
you get an email and it knows where you are because it shows your IP and everything.
Yeah.
I was like, whoops.
Oh, well, at this point, forget it.
I don't take any chances with it, but I, you know, whatever.
But like, so anytime you withdraw, like it shows your account,
your stuff is frozen.
And then it might take 15, 20 minutes to withdraw.
So then you're like, wait a minute, is something going to happen here?
But so far it hasn't been a problem.
And I just did one now and I was able to take funds off pretty easily.
So anyway.
Part of the issue is that they're non-KYC and they have a lot of like
washing that goes through there.
So it's a fine balance for them to like freeze the,
what they think is washing and illegal trades or like, you know,
money laundering and stuff like that versus legitimate people just,
and I'm not standing up for them.
I'm just saying,
and I think that's part of what they're trying to do and having trouble with.
Well, I mean,
I don't know how they would really do that in any consistent scale,
but who knows?
I'm not even sure what I think it's an algorithm would be.
From what I understand,
like from the people that have gotten like frozen,
usually are brand new traders are like,
they don't have much history,
but then they're killing it.
And so like somehow the algorithm is flagging their account or something's
happening there.
So if you get on there,
don't,
don't get too lucky.
Yeah.
I mean,
I've been doing futures trading on there and I mean,
like I have three positions right now,
a BTC a hundred X long,
which is up 300%.
And I'm like,
Hmm,
should I take it off now?
Not really sure.
And then a fat long and an ETH long.
Hmm.
Yeah.
I don't,
I don't really gamble with futures ever.
So I'm kind of like,
I'm not really sure what the deal is on their exchange,
but anyway,
there's other exchanges now too.
Like,
have you used coin X or anything up?
Like,
are they any good?
I have coin X is good.
The issue with coin X is that they,
you know,
Lazarus is the hacker group from North Korea.
Oh Jesus.
So what I got owned by them.
like what was it like three,
maybe six months ago they got,
they got all like a bunch of coins stolen.
And KDA was a part of their coins,
but they dumped all those coins a while,
a while back,
which was bullish because it didn't touch the price.
But yeah,
they,
they got hacked.
And so the,
the other reason why I don't use them is that my account for whatever reason,
when I log in,
none of the buttons work.
So I think they know where I am,
but there are another one more just like Mexi where if he's a VPN,
I think most people's accounts are fine.
I want to use BitMart.
Have you guys used that one yet?
I've used BitMart before,
but BitMart's problem was,
I think they either kicked out us users.
I don't remember what it was,
but I stopped using them.
I don't remember why,
but I do have an account with them at some person.
Cause I want to,
I want to do some copy trading.
I want to try it on a couple of accounts.
I've been following.
My grandma has an Italian passport.
So I might just KYC under her and just get under cause,
cause they blocked us.
Yeah.
I've thought about doing that with,
with,
people I know overseas,
but I don't know.
Sometimes it's like,
is it worth the hassle?
Yeah.
I need to bring her passport tomorrow at Christmas.
I'm going to have to ask her,
you know,
another one that's been getting a lot of,
and I'm,
I shouldn't say that I vouch for this at all.
I just seen people bringing it up is Bing X,
but I keep seeing people like with,
this Mexi thing using the opportunity to show Bing X.
So who knows if they have like all the coins everybody wants and if it's good
liquidity and all that kind of stuff,
but it might be another option.
Hmm.
Hmm.
Funny thing I did today.
I sent back all of my autism coins to,
I sent them all back to,
Bruce and Midas who sent them to me in the first place because I,
I was like,
wait a minute.
I didn't use a proper,
I didn't use a proper,
well,
if I want to like send them out to people randomly,
I need a more anonymized account to receive those from.
Cause one,
I like it's trackable on my shit.
And so like it can represent like some income taxes,
but besides that,
if I send them out,
it also represents,
you know,
you know,
does it represent a sale or whatever?
I just don't want to,
I didn't want to deal with it.
So I,
I started all over again.
he's going to like send them back to me now that I have once I've,
I've made a new wallet and stuff.
But anyway,
hence Zephyr,
is being,
is useful.
Like this is the reason why I care about Zephyr.
Yep.
Do you,
has anybody ever heard of Bing X?
Is Bing X any good for an,
for another exchange to use?
I've never used it.
I'm not sure.
I've neither.
I've seen it shilled a couple of times with this Mexi thing going on,
but,
and it does,
it seems to have a lot of the coins that some of the smaller ones,
but I don't have any idea about liquidity or what people's experience has
been like with it.
How much Zephyr is on,
any,
like how much,
do you have,
do you have your computer up where you can look at,
like trade or how much,
Zephyr is on there?
I don't know.
Let me check.
I wonder,
on Mexi,
I get,
I get some slippage,
but not bad.
trade Ogre had $39,000 worth of volume in the last 24 hours.
So not much,
not much.
Mexi at 1.3 million.
I can pull up the order book though.
It'll tell you like,
you know,
you'll get a sense of like how much you can buy without the price moving.
Yeah.
I think that's been a little problem with trade Ogre.
they have 982 Zephyr on the sell side,
$6,000 on the buy side.
So not a lot.
Hmm.
Yeah.
It can't be that much.
Yeah.
And I,
and I'm not really sure like,
on Zephyr like this,
it's hard to tell like exactly where sell pressure and stuff's coming from.
Some of it could be like market maker shenanigans.
Some of it could be,
some of it could be like team having to sell some in order to sort of like get
liquidity ready for other listings or something.
And some of it could be,
just minor selling.
Cause I think up would know more about this,
but I think some places that you mine,
you can actually convert your coins to whatever the coin of your choice.
Yeah.
There's one service.
I forgot that it is.
error that if it's not live,
it's coming soon,
but yeah,
there's,
I forgot what it is,
but you would,
like you said,
you mine Zeph and then you pick what coin you want it to be paid out in and
you can do like any other coin in their list.
And that's not just for Zeph.
That's for like all algorithms that are offered by that service.
But I don't know too many miners that are probably doing that.
And if they are,
they're probably going to like BTC or XMR.
Right now the circulating supply picked up to like 2.7 mil.
You used to say 2.5.
So definitely,
that makes sense over the course of the last couple months.
Cause it's,
you're producing like 8,000 supply per day or whatever.
that makes sense.
Anyway,
but like,
if anyone's interested,
Zephyr's like,
pulled back right about like 70% from the top when it hit around like 17 ish bucks.
I was kind of like,
I was hoping that some of my stuff would break out today,
before I had to go and sell it to go and buy some,
but I decided to move a little bit and go ahead and like,
get a,
get a bag,
and add to my,
Zephyr pool.
And then,
if we go down further,
like hopefully the timing is coincident with like a couple of things.
One is an Adam breakout and the other is a link breakout.
That's kind of sort of the title of the space here.
links at precisely at breakout 1580 is it's sort of like level.
And it's been sort of just traipsing around that for the past,
like,
I don't know,
month and a half.
And,
it's at like 1580 today or right now.
And,
so I just picked up,
I just have spot chain link for that.
And my goal on that one is like kind of to probably sell some at about
$32.
not that it can't go up further,
but I,
I have some that I allocated specifically to sell like just for like a
relatively quick,
recovery.
And then my hope is that like right around then,
you know,
if Zeph drops any further,
then I'll be able to like grab up a lot.
So most of the Zeph I bought has been on,
stuff that I gained on other stuff from,
and then just adding to the dip.
So like if I,
you know,
if the price of the coin drops 50% or whatever,
it doesn't matter because like that's already in the green for me.
So I'm fine.
But anyway,
so yeah,
chain link's one of them.
And then Adam's been sort of messing around with that $12 level for a
while now as well.
Both of the,
a lot of different coins are at resistance,
ready to break out.
So Adam's the other one that I have a lot of that.
If we have like a good breakout,
like to like,
I think if it breaks out of 12,
I think it'll pass.
I'm right at 17 with that one.
Is that your average 17?
I think,
I think it's going to hit right around 17.
That'll probably be.
Yeah.
16 is kind of the 16 is one level.
And then 20 ish is right there.
I think if you get to 20,
it'll probably break 20 also more than likely because it's like,
you're,
you're at to,
you're up to higher fibs at that point.
I think you're good,
but my hope.
So I kind of unstake some of my Adam with the intent that I can utilize that
elsewhere.
and I'd gotten enough yield over the last two years that like,
I'm fine with it.
And,
you know,
if it,
if it does take off and finally make all time highs like Ethereum and
everything else might then great.
otherwise I'll have some available in case I need to buy some other shit.
Like when the time comes.
Yeah.
So I unstaked mine today in anticipation of 21 days from now.
Yeah.
Because there's,
there's like some other little micro gambles that are probably worth,
playing with.
And someone mentioned that Andromeda is coming out the next week.
And,
we'll have to analyze like what that means as far as like,
you know,
how are they releasing this thing and whatever else.
Right.
Cause you know how these things dump after they release.
and then,
the other one was dimension,
but Wabi was mentioning,
which,
could also be interesting.
So sometimes just like small amounts of the new chains can be a good
thing.
Cause like,
you know,
that the upside might be relatively high,
assuming that they're launched fairly.
Now,
if they're not,
that's a whole nother story.
you know how it is with these things,
like some things open up at certain dollar value and then they dump from
there.
Cause their market cap is,
they're just overvalued on the get go,
like right from the exchange listings and others start out really low.
And then they kind of moon from there.
I don't know what those are going to be.
generally like any VC powered chain,
you can generally assume there's going to be some sort of post,
post like,
IPO or whatever you're going to call it dump because they'll pick some
dollar value that they choose to list that at.
And it might be at a market cap when you multiply by their total supply,
it might be the market cap.
That's just obscenely high.
That's where people have to be careful with these,
like new listings and whatever.
the more you,
the more you play with these new listings,
the more you realize like,
how wildly overvalued some of them can be on initial listing and initial
liquidity.
now if you believe in the team or whatever,
and you're willing to hold for years,
it's fine.
So it's like,
whatever.
But,
yeah,
like quite a few of these small cap ones though,
you have to be prepared for that volatility.
On the other hand,
like in a bull market,
you know,
a lot of things catch a bid much simpler than in a bear.
So we'll see.
but yeah,
did you,
but chain link and Adam both look,
like they're getting close.
Chain link is right there at resistance,
which is,
interesting because it's the third.
Did you guys,
can you still hear?
Hmm.
Lost them.
Okay.
That might be me.
I got third blank.
Yep.
I don't even see his mic being like showing any noise either.
It's almost like he just like cut out.
I'm probably going to phone call.
Lucky you're in a link as well.
I do not have any link actually.
I did not pick up link.
I was,
I mean,
Adam.
Yeah,
I'm an Adam and Zeph,
but not link.
I got like a,
my phone's kind of like fritzing out with a phone call coming in.
anyway,
you,
you had some wet,
had some other stuff.
I know he was asking me if I was in link.
I didn't pick up any link.
I picked up at them around eight ish.
and then,
Zeph,
I was waiting for 1430.
That's kind of a level I had marked.
Yeah.
If we're going to get down there,
but I pick some up at,
like 18 something.
Yeah.
I just got some at 18 just because like,
I tend to front run those a little bit.
just because like,
I don't know,
everyone can see the levels.
And so they might hit there,
there of course,
but I tend to get like trigger happy.
So there's just a super small imbalance of that 14 level that I'm wondering if we're going to go hit.
I don't know.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
There's not much,
there's not much by side,
like liquidity on next C either,
by the way.
it's a relatively low amount of total float on there too.
So it's interesting how there's so much volume being posted,
overall,
but you look at how much coin is there.
It doesn't seem like very much.
So I don't know.
Are you still holding your flux?
You saw flux flux.
I've got it stashed somewhere.
It's on,
it's sitting on exchange somewhere.
I haven't really messed with it too much.
Yeah.
It's still sitting there.
I don't remember what I got it at though.
Yeah.
I picked up some of that lately.
So if you want to get it into a hardware wallet,
you can use the flux ETH so that if you ever want to get it off that
exchange and still have it secure.
Yeah,
I probably should just,
I just never,
never,
I didn't really pay attention to it too much lately.
I probably,
I think the reason why he's bringing it up is it pumped like 16% or
something today.
And KDA went up like 60 something percent as well.
Both those coins are having a good day.
Yeah.
I think if the,
if the layer,
if different layer ones are actually having good days,
then,
I think we'll see some continuing continuation of the whole market.
It seems like one coin at a time is pumping,
which is kind of interesting as opposed to everything all at once.
Yeah.
There was a rumor.
I saw that,
that KDA had some like partnership science,
some contract signed with some financial partner from trad five with ZK rollups,
but I don't know if that's legit or not.
We're trying to,
I'm trying to figure it out.
What was KDA up today?
wow.
It went up like 60 some percent.
Holy shit.
Yeah.
82 to a dollar to 40.
Nice.
I think it's pumping on that rumor.
Some tried five partnership rumor.
Pretty substantial.
Pretty substantial pop.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Fox usually follows too.
That's why it's doing its thing as well.
They're kind of like brother and sister.
They're kind of on the same wallets too.
Yeah.
On Zell core and different ones.
You have the name of that wallet.
Exactly.
But yeah,
there's,
let's see here.
You know,
what looks like it's about to go today.
Steffi is a say,
if you look at this,
the daily on say,
it's been chilling right around the same area,
but the load,
the lows are getting higher now and it's wanting to pop out of that little zone.
Okay.
I'm getting ready to buy more.
I sold it the other day for like a quick gain,
but cause it came up and then came back down.
I had sold mine just like,
I don't remember what I got,
like a two and a half X and I just didn't really look at it again.
I've been pretty conservative with the,
like on the X's on some of these things.
It's like,
there are definitely some that I've been buying just because I know they're going to likely go up.
But at the same time,
like I'll just take those and dump them into something else.
I think I bought Zephyr with all my say gains pretty much.
Yeah,
me too.
I'm about to trade back into it.
I think that I think I'm going to buy a little more today just based on the daily.
It looks like it wants to,
but let me look at it here.
Maybe I should get some here.
Let's see.
Yeah.
The breakout trading is always kind of like,
let's see.
Yeah.
It's not bad.
I think the thing is though,
what's its market cap again?
Is it 500 mil?
Yeah.
It's not,
it's not the smallest.
Like it's,
it's,
it definitely hasn't done the like soul or the neutron or any of those X's like the,
you know,
it hasn't went up that.
I think it's only like three X from the bottom,
right?
It was like 20 cents or something.
Yeah.
There's very little people sort of talking about it for starters.
And then the other thing is there's nothing really to do there yet either.
And their FDB is really high,
which,
you know,
of course that's kind of a right curve type of thing,
I guess.
Yeah.
But it's trading volumes like 158 mil supposedly.
so I don't know.
It's,
it's interesting.
Yeah,
you're right.
It could,
it could pop off,
but it's hard to tell.
But at the same time,
it's like,
if you were going to pick between two coins are going to pop off,
say versus Coogee,
like Coogee might be the more obvious one.
Is it?
I haven't looked at that chart to be honest.
Just because like,
it's probably got a better community.
It's got a better,
yeah,
it's got an actual community.
And,
so that would be the reason why,
like,
if I'm,
if I was going to add something today,
like maybe,
maybe Kajira,
but like,
my Kajira I'm just holding onto,
I don't really mess with it.
and it's pulled back from like five to four again or something almost.
And now it's popping off again.
It's like four 45.
So it has a pretty similar situation to say as far as like upside,
but it's at 540 million market cap.
And the plus side of it is it's FDB is five 40 also.
So like the bet,
the better deal really is like Coogee compared to say,
I would think.
But I don't know.
Say is one of these BC back deals too.
So it might have more,
pumpers than you might think,
or shillers or whatever.
I don't know.
Hard to say.
I keep seeing that sailor like meme or like NFT on the,
on their chain.
I don't know what it is,
but.
Huh?
Okay.
Oh yeah.
It makes sense though.
Like there are all these memes are like Jimmy Neutron and,
and you know,
Eric and like all this stuff is just like memed off the name or whatever,
but yeah,
everyone's been sticking some sort of meme on every single cosmos chain,
which is probably fine.
but that's kind of,
it dilutes it a bit,
but it's good.
And it's good for transactions on all the cosmos chains,
which,
you know,
the more volume that's transacted,
the better it looks.
and,
and volume,
a lot of people will bots in different things.
We'll use volume as the,
actual indicator for whether to come play.
so yeah,
yeah,
I guess,
the main coins and all that are fine from that perspective.
Doesn't it trap the liquidity in the eco too?
When people,
cause you have to buy like say,
or like INJ or any of these coins,
right?
And then you swap them into the meme coin and it like traps that.
Especially if you buy them in the central exchange,
you convert to the meme coin and that exchange is not actually being followed by coin gecko and whatever.
Right.
Oh yeah.
The fact that you sold is basically,
not recorded anywhere,
essentially as far as like for volume purposes or for,
oracles and whatever.
But I guess it might,
well,
I don't know in the aggregate,
it should have show some sell pressure on that coin because supply goes up,
I guess,
but I don't know.
It's plus or minus.
You think we're up only stuffy now until the next June?
the biggest,
like the biggest bellwether now is like all these chains that are sitting at
resistance chain link,
Adam,
these are probably a couple of good bellwethers because they're,
you know,
they're,
you know,
reminiscent of sort of like quality in a sense.
I think if these two pop,
and,
you know,
break a couple of fib levels,
then I think we're off because then the charts all look painted very beautifully.
Like,
look,
all time highs coming.
Right.
And then,
then,
you know,
everyone's going to pile into the break of all time high,
similar to what happened to injective,
what happened now to,
there are some chains breaking all time highs actually.
but like imagine Adam's chart looking like FET's chart,
Chainlink's chart looking like FET's chart.
You know,
you see how like the,
the chart itself starts speaking volumes to people and they're like,
Ooh,
that looks like it's going to hit high and then they jump in.
So I think that's,
that's sort of the thing.
If we see a few more chains doing that,
I think we're in positive territory and I don't know,
like Bitcoin's doing the usual kind of like pause while,
while all coins pump.
And,
I think it's because the same people,
it's like,
they go and like gamble on alts.
They make their money,
the market makers,
whatever they sell at resistance.
And then they pile into Bitcoin and they go off,
let it run again.
They do the same thing again with alts.
And it's just the same people,
like large whales are pushing this.
So it's,
it depends on where,
yeah,
these,
if Adam and chain chain link breakout,
I'll be more optimistic for everything else.
Honestly,
that's good news.
It's good to hear.
if we get a,
like some kind of weird dip now,
like,
you know,
that gets interesting because like,
imagine if Adam goes back to nine or like,
you know,
chain link goes back to nine or whatever.
that,
that would be pretty nerve wracking.
Now I guess it's possible.
You could have like that disbelief dip and then things take off anyway,
but I don't know.
It's,
these things are always,
you can never tell until,
until you actually get there.
It's,
it's very easy to say,
like it's easy to be optimistic or pessimistic with,
you know,
no knowledge of the future.
I mean,
I know you said it,
I know you said it last night.
I mean,
you know,
we're not for those that have been sitting around the bear market,
like you,
good job.
Some of us have slowly dipped our toes back in because of battle scars.
So we're still a little early.
I would say we're still early from retail.
I mean,
yeah,
I mean,
I took a big,
I took a big loss on Luna,
but you know,
yeah,
I live another day.
What are you going to do?
and so I think we're still early from,
you know,
the normies definitely coming.
I had a gigantic loss on Voyager stock.
Oh God.
I don't want to talk about Voyager.
I think,
I think,
I think on,
and in the aggregate,
I would probably like,
it's probably half mil.
yeah.
Yeah.
I calculated 250,000.
I lost overall.
Pretty,
pretty brutal there.
So anyway,
but,
whatever it is,
we'll,
we'll,
we'll,
we'll get it back.
That's just how it is.
It's not like,
it's not the end of the world.
We'll sort it out.
But anyway,
yeah.
yeah,
I think the optimism versus pessimism,
I think the,
on the one hand,
things get optimistic in that,
like,
you know,
yeah,
like we,
we basically had seller exhaustion for a really long time.
that's,
that's the plus side,
you know,
like think of it this way.
Anyone who wanted to sell Adam,
you know,
have had,
has had plenty of time to do so.
Anyone who's wanted to sell chain link has had plenty of time to do so.
Both of them have similar sort of like sideways consolidation behavior.
and they've hit like good double or triple or quadruple bottoms or whatever,
depending on which one you're looking at.
I think it's more likely up than down.
And that's really all you can really say,
I think,
is more likely,
not,
not certain.
This is why I like,
I don't feel comfortable playing with leverage,
usually because like,
you know,
you could,
you could measure your leverage and say,
okay,
well,
like,
you know,
how bullish am I?
And like,
okay,
am I 70% bullish and I'm going to take on some leverage,
but like with spot,
I don't have to worry too much about it.
Cause like,
if I look long run,
I say to myself,
okay,
wait a minute.
Like,
is it more likely than not?
Like in two years,
let's say a chain link is closer to all time high or closer to a dollar or like,
you know,
or like closer to zero.
I think the odds are closer to all time high,
in which case then all I have to do is hold and not fumble the bag.
Right.
You don't need to worry too much about like making mega,
mega gains on,
leverage necessarily.
You just,
just wait.
I think it's just a matter of how patient to be.
And that's about it.
But yeah,
this coming year should be good.
I think everything's looking fine.
anybody else pick,
I don't know if anyone else down here grabbed their like cheap Zephyr today.
I got,
I think I got it at like 1820.
I was getting greedy.
I was watching for like,
it was in the 17s and I was like,
but I was kind of busy at work.
I got woke up at like 4am today.
Cause a lady decided to rupture her thoracic aorta and that's not fun.
So like I've been busy all morning long.
And,
so I was waking up and I looked at this thing.
I'm like,
17 something,
maybe I'll get some,
but then I was busy worried about work.
So I couldn't actually play on the computer or play on the phone or whatever.
But I was able to finally get a little bit of transfer and picked up,
I think 1820,
1840 like that area.
And then,
so I'm comfortable with that.
So like you can get like compared to what I bought at 27,
obviously I can get way more at 18 for the same amount of money.
it does make sense to scale in to these things.
Cause it,
cause they make exponential moves and you can get like double the amount of coin with the same amount of money on, you know, if, if it dips.
So eventually these things find a bitter,
right?
Like on the way down,
everyone's worried.
Oh no,
it's going to zero.
We're like,
Oh no,
it's like,
you know,
nobody likes this or something like,
but I,
you know,
I think this is one of those.
I just ignore that and just grab some at the bottom.
So I don't know,
maybe 14,
15 lucky.
It's possible.
That's the next fib,
right?
Like right,
right in that area.
If you look at the one I've been posting at least,
and then there's like 10 bucks or something like that.
I don't know,
10 bucks.
It seems like a little too easy.
I think like the breakout was what six or something.
So retesting breakout seems a little bit less likely,
but you know,
you never know.
We're way more.
The other thing too,
is we're way more volume on Zephyr now than we were when we,
when the price broke out at six bucks.
So like at that time and before that time,
it was like,
you'd be in the a hundred thousand type market.
I mean,
I'm sorry,
volume range,
200,000,
maybe at best.
And then the month before that,
it was even less like 50,000 or something up was there,
I think.
And,
and then the,
the,
volumes now run million plus per day,
whatever that's worth.
I think you'll find bidders like anywhere in that sort of 10 to 18 or this,
this whole range.
I think you'll find more bidders as we go.
Let's see.
Yeah.
I would say between 18 and 25,
we're going to probably consolidate if we don't go back down.
And then once we bring 25,
I think we'll have some clear.
Yeah.
what's it called?
cast cast lasted in these dips,
like in the early days,
that's the closest,
like approximation to a high,
high emission proof of work chain that I can like think of recent memory.
caspa sat in its first dip for about three months,
but that was in a bear market.
I don't know if that's gets foreshortened in a more bullish market like this or not.
I think it may be,
but at the same time,
hard to say,
but like three months probably is a good reference point for one impulse move like that.
And then a consolidation and then hit it on up after that.
I think it's like three months seems like a long time.
Cause you're,
you're,
we're sitting around paying attention to this,
right?
Like otherwise if it was like,
it was like my Kujira bag,
it was like,
damn,
like I didn't even look at it at like,
you know,
20 X or something.
And I didn't even notice.
I came back and looked,
I'm like,
look,
look at all this money.
Like where'd it come from?
It's kind of funny that way.
It's funny.
Lucky if,
if Kujira 10 X is from here,
that would actually be my,
like it gets close to the entirety of my,
I think initial cash investment.
And I put in Luna the first time,
which is crazy.
Cause like,
I didn't buy much Kujira.
So that's,
that's really nice.
so yeah,
I guess because like when the Kujira chain opened,
it was like at 25 cents or something.
I don't know what it was.
So whatever,
whatever amount I got from transfer from Tara to,
the Kujira chain,
it was enough to be material like where,
and I think Kujira can legitimately 10 X from here.
It's not even like,
it's not even,
I'm not even that worried about that possibility.
So that's actually what you're saying.
Sorry.
Oh no,
I think that's nice.
I think that's because I think Kujira is like at 500 K 500 mil market cap
right now,
580 or something.
So for that to get to 5 billion compared to a lot of other crap that's done
it's very feasible.
So I,
I think Kujira is one of those where it's like,
it's just leave it alone and let it ride at this point and not fumble the
bag pretty much.
And then what's your,
what's your ETF narrative right now?
Are you,
are you thinking that wall street wants it to go down to be able to get in?
Do you think they've been buying secretly behind?
I think the way ETFs work is ETFs.
They're not interested in like,
like gambling on the value of Bitcoin ETFs are all about like just simply
making a bunch of money on fees and shit really for big exchanges.
So I would think that they're not doing a bunch of preemptive buying and
anticipation of loading the,
the coffers.
My suspicion is,
is that what will happen is they've got some background sort of market
maker for them,
for either OTC or some other type of purchases of Bitcoin.
And what they'll do is like,
if you go in there and you're like,
I want to put part of my retirement portfolio in Bitcoin for some reason,
then what will happen is,
is that they'll buy it immediately as part of that process,
like real time.
So if ETFs open,
you know,
does it do like gold did back in like whatever,
I don't remember what year it was,
but when gold ETFs first opened gold,
like what was it?
Five X or something.
I can't remember the exact value,
but I think it went like $200,
like a thousand or something back then.
So the theory is like,
the theory goes that,
okay,
a bunch of people are going to suddenly want to use assets that they hadn't
before.
And just ape into,
you know,
using their retirement accounts into BTC.
Is that shit going to happen?
I don't know.
The ETFs that opened up in Europe,
this did not happen.
And today there's not really anybody that couldn't get exposure to Bitcoin
if they wanted it now.
you know,
I don't know,
like,
I'm not sure,
so sure how hot that will be exactly.
So I think it's more narrative driven.
I think it can't be a negative for the space.
Like,
you know,
it's good.
But as these things open up over the next few months or whatever,
you know,
does it actually materially lead to more BTC being bought up and you get
like a supply shock?
I don't really know.
And I guess you might have ongoing news all year long,
which is good.
So if it dominates sort of like news cycle to some extent,
like where periodically Bitcoin ETFs keep opening up,
I guess people will be impressed when the first one happens.
I don't know how many,
how impressed people are going to be as each subsequent one happens.
You know,
it's kind of like the news gets boring a little bit.
So over the next year,
at least you'll get some media penetration and maybe some search hits related
to it.
Maybe some financial advisors look into it or whatever.
But I think it's a net positive.
This idea that we're going to have like a sell the news type of event.
I don't know about that.
Like sell what news exactly?
Like,
you know,
which,
which news exactly are you going to sell?
So I don't know.
Usually we have a big run up.
Like,
let's say like all of our coins,
like,
you know,
hit like the next fib level,
the next,
like,
let's say Adam is a good example or chain link.
Let's say those things get to the couple more fib levels.
So Adam would be 20 chain link would be 32.
You know,
could you get a dip then?
Because you had this like relatively strong run up from the bottoms.
So yeah,
sure.
I think that could happen.
And then,
you know,
you,
so that can coincide with like this ETF timing and stuff.
Just looking at the trajectory on the charts and maybe you get a dip at
that point.
People will say it's due to the,
you know,
ETF sell the news or whatever,
but it's also might just be right.
The right time that a dip is due.
So I don't,
I don't know what to make of all that shit,
but like,
as long as the next year is overall positive,
I think mostly it's a matter of just like holding tight and not messing
around too much for the next year,
leaving things alone.
Yeah,
I would agree.
I mean,
I'm looking at it from the fact of liquidity coming in and it might be
another path for just injection of lots of liquidity into the space.
That's kind of how I'm viewing it.
So that's why I'm trying to just kind of pick my 10 to 20 projects.
Invest in now and just hold for a year.
Exactly.
That's pretty much what the deal is.
And I don't think it's too late now.
I think the thing is like,
if average shame link price was $7 in the bear market and it's what,
you know,
15 bucks now,
that's like barely a two X.
If you caught the very bottom,
it was a three X,
but the reality is very few people caught an exact bottom.
So the reality is like,
we're not that far ahead yet.
I don't,
I don't think it's like normies are here yet level by that point.
Usually you're talking about like a five to a 10 X has already
happened in a lot of assets,
especially non BTC assets by that point.
That's when they all show up.
So I think we're still,
it's still pretty early.
Anyway,
but yeah.
Hey,
Robbo,
what's up?
Maria,
Merry Christmas,
Seppy.
It's obviously 3am.
It's already Christmas for you,
huh?
Yep.
It is bro.
We've just finished the space earlier.
Yeah.
We just finished there.
I mean,
I didn't put my hand up until your man said like 10 to 20 projects.
I have to be honest,
like who in their right mind in the run of their bull market is going to be in
if you haven't like streamlined like six projects for the aim,
they get down like four that you're not going to manage your portfolio and a
bull.
Like you,
you,
like,
I've got about a dozen projects.
That's an unreal.
I've got about a dozen.
I think it depends on how diversified.
Yeah.
As we bull run,
you're going to close down positions,
right?
Like that's how it works.
All right.
Like then you're going to stay in a link.
You're going to stay in depth.
You're going to,
you're going to wind down,
but like 10 to 20,
like overextension is a thing I've learned through.
I've only been through one bull market so far.
And the one thing I did learn was overextension is never good.
Like streamlining and having that like clearly defined,
like zone lane is much better for you.
Mine's pretty narrow too.
Mine's,
it's not like,
like it's definitely not in the 20 plus range.
So it's like,
I'm at a dozen.
What I don't want,
what I don't want this year.
Lucky is I don't want to have like a gigantic goddamn tax nightmare.
I'm not doing shit again.
So the reality is like,
I'm not doing a bunch of D five stuff.
I'm not like lending and whatever.
And like,
you know,
the looping and whatever BS,
like,
like even the stuff that you do for entertainment in that realm leads to just
so much unnecessary traffic that you have to then like record somewhere and
whatever.
So I'm,
I'm sick of that nonsense.
So really like,
to me,
it's like just spot buys and,
you know,
letting them ride and then kind of doing some selling here and there is pretty
much the plan.
But yeah,
like some of these breakout trades to me have so far have all worked out well
because it's such early bull market,
right?
Like injective,
I bought literally the top $25 and it's now like what?
42 or something.
So I bought the top exactly.
And I,
but I bought the top because it was a breakout from the all time high.
So that was like an exceptional top.
Fetch is the same story.
Like if it hits high,
which it's kind of trickling up to,
it breaks top,
then it can just really moon.
all right,
fine.
That gamble's worth it.
Or yeah.
so definitely like as charts improve,
you can technically get in late,
late,
but you,
you miss out a lot of the early gains,
but at the same time,
like if you're not following them carefully,
how are you going to really know?
I picked up Solana when Wabi mentioned that it was kind of breaking a
level and it was actually,
it was,
you know,
you know,
running past a prior like fib.
And actually it's amazing.
Cause like from the,
the first,
the last fib to the top is actually a doubling.
It's a two X from the like middle of the price of the asset all the way to
the top.
So it's kind of funny how fibs work on log scale.
It's like,
if you like,
so chain Solana is one where it's like,
okay,
it's probably gonna hit all time high at this point.
Again,
it's going to probably run back to two 50 or whatever.
So I picked it up like one in a three figure and like,
Hey,
if I had to exit,
I'm not a huge Solana fan,
but whatever,
like,
you know,
like who cares?
if it,
if it runs,
I can,
you know,
sell it and then buy something else with it if I feel like it.
yeah.
And then another one that just broke out,
by the way,
if people haven't paid attention is,
Wabi mentioned this yesterday as well.
He's pretty good at noticing a few of these is like,
what's it called?
optimism,
which is,
the sort of,
you know,
roll up chain or whatever on Ethereum.
the ticker is OP.
And let me sort of tell you the stats on that.
Yeah.
It just sort of broke its prior high,
like at $3 and 29 cents.
And it's at $3 and 45 at this point,
I said,
I said an alarm for $7 and 35 cents just for a simple two X.
It could probably do a lot more like,
you know,
assuming he starts to run and everything starts going nuts,
but I figured a two X would be nice.
And it's a simple,
it's a simple trade.
And that like,
any,
anything that breaks any crypto,
that breaks prior high early in a bull market,
the probability is pretty good.
You're going to do well where we got burned by like break a prior high type
thinking last bull market was the double top for Bitcoin,
which was not expected by most people.
most people would have expected if it ran back to a double top,
it would have ran,
but it did not,
which is interesting.
people would juke.
People would juke into thinking that AI,
whatever it was,
the,
the,
the Ethereum,
proposal,
which was what,
August 2021,
which introduced the burning mechanism,
et cetera.
Everyone was like,
it's a triple.
Like,
dude,
I got sucker punched into that.
Like no one needs to like,
everyone thought that ETH was going to run the moon.
a triple,
a triple top super cycle.
So if you looked at the 2013 chart,
and then if you look at like the 2018,
and if you took in certain factors,
like everyone was saying in like 2021,
blah,
blah,
blah,
that it was the triple top.
It was the triple super cycle.
And they were like,
look at 2013.
Look at like,
dude,
it was all a fallacy.
It was all bullshit.
Like,
let's not be like,
it was bullshit.
In retrospect,
everything looks like bullshit in a sense.
But like,
what I'm saying is that like,
since we're early,
when we're bull market,
when was the big one?
When was the big one with Ethereum?
Was that,
when was the big one with Ethereum?
Was that August?
I don't know.
Or was that the announcement was in August?
You know what I'm talking about.
I was just thinking about the Bitcoin double top this last season,
more than anything.
But like,
early in a bull market,
if you double,
if you beat all time high,
you're probably,
in other words,
a previous cycle is all time high,
not a recent all time high,
but a previous cycle.
The odds that you're going to break that are pretty damn good.
Like,
this is just the nature of stocks.
It's nature of crypto.
Same story.
Especially if it's a long-term,
like multi-year top that you're trying to break,
the odds of a break are pretty good,
especially if the market in general is bullish.
So I think that's the case here in OP,
in Optimism.
Sethi,
people are saying,
people are saying,
the people are saying that people are already selling like the rumor.
So the ETF news,
I mean,
do you think the ETF like is already priced in?
A lot of people are saying it's already priced in,
given the current sense of like the Harvard.
Anybody that was going to buy because of the ETF stuff has bought already.
So yes,
in that sense,
like,
yeah,
it's priced in probably.
Yeah.
I mean,
but what I was saying the other day was,
if that's the case,
if you've said that it's priced in,
what's going to happen with the Harvard,
with the election cycle,
like we know the fallout from election cycles generally historically.
So how does this like,
now,
if we've already bought the rumor or people have already sold the news,
what comes next?
Typically Bitcoin happening has material effects on the market because of the change in the price to mine and the relative like new supply of Bitcoin that comes into the space.
There is kind of like this recurring theme and how much of that is memetic and how much of it is really like tokenomic is unknown.
But the,
what we do know is that the happening is more than ETF and stuff is the sort of deepest meme in the crypto space.
And we know that crypto whales live and die by it.
Right.
So there is a,
there is a element of like the happening was designed for this.
Actually,
it was designed for supply shock on a,
on an intermittent basis,
as opposed to like Cadena,
for example,
where,
you know,
it's more of a smooth curve.
And the reason for that is so that it,
it kind of shakes up the market and creates like a market cycle on purpose,
which is kind of the idea behind it.
But anyway,
I guess my point is like,
because that's the happening is coming.
If you were to guesstimate like on aggregate,
would you be more bullish or more bearish during that time period?
You know,
overall the next following year,
I think I would tend to be more bullish,
especially because we've had a good solid two years for everyone to sell.
Think about that now.
Like those bottoms mean something like we're talking about an 18 month plus period where people had the opportunity to push down the price of these assets a lot further if they wanted to sell them.
So long moving averages and how they look on a chart are enough reason for a lot of people to gamble.
Now,
does that mean like if we don't have a great market,
does that mean we're going to go like,
you know,
sideways sort of from now on and we're not going to like moon and maybe all those charts don't hit the previous highs or whatever?
That's possible,
I suppose.
But we do know that injective made it to all time high.
We know that optimism just did.
We know that FET is close.
Akash is close.
AKT keeps climbing up even today.
The AI narrative stuff,
whoever's been pumping that,
definitely bringing those close to prior highs.
Bitcoin's close to price,
close to prior high.
Let's talk about the king for a minute.
Like,
like it's not that far.
Have you done much on optimism or not?
I mean,
you mentioned OP a couple of times.
I've done nothing.
I mean,
I don't give any credit on Wabi.
I have literally done nothing on optimism,
Polygon,
any of that.
I just,
I'm,
this is purely just a speculative vibe based on the fact that it broke all time high.
And I'm willing to gamble that it'll two X from there.
On the fork in itself.
On the fork in itself.
Yeah.
And I don't,
I just have it on the exchange.
I just basically have it sitting there and I just spot it and I'll just sell it when it goes two X and be done with it.
Like,
I'm not interested in like necessarily doing too much research on it necessarily.
I just figured the crowd research is the chart.
Like the,
the fact that like people are willing to bother buying it to take it back to all time high is enough for me.
Does that make sense?
Like,
so all time high breaks are an interesting trading strategy.
I did this with Bitcoin too,
back at 20,000.
so I bought a lot of BTC,
like his,
like mostly at three K three,
and then 3,500 that region.
And then like when,
like when it hit 20 K though,
I added a whole bunch because like the all time high break is a really bullish.
Like thing.
And I'm like,
I'll just gamble some more.
Right.
So I just threw some at the top,
but I think anything that breaks prior high,
I think it deserves your attention.
Whether you understand what the project is or whether you don't,
it almost doesn't matter.
It's a purely technical trade just to make a buck.
And then like,
you know,
you can exit or whatever.
And you don't even have to ride it very high.
Cause you don't have to take much risk on those.
You can say,
well,
like if it two X or three X is screw it,
I'm out of here.
Like you like what's,
you don't need to become rich off the thing.
Like you,
you know,
take your wins.
So if you,
I wouldn't want to divert the conversation,
but we were having a space.
I think it was yesterday when we had the problems,
when the update happened and you were trying to come and speak in and it was,
we were getting rogue.
Tank couldn't come in.
You couldn't come in.
There was a few.
And we were talking about the perpetual main cycle.
So main coins,
like if we look at the individual,
like,
like sectors,
let you've got the SMP and you've got different sectors,
right?
So let's look at crypto and say,
you've got different sectors,
right?
Whether that be L ones,
whether that be like infra,
like link,
et cetera,
whether that's NFTs,
right?
Whether that's D5 protocols,
right?
So like,
meme coins,
like,
are they a forever,
like sector?
Like I'm now of the belief that people say,
meme coin season.
I think we are forever in a perpetual main coin cycle from now on.
I don't think it's ever going to stop.
Half the regular coins are all meme coins.
Like,
I don't even think like most of the,
most people are buying shit for the fundamentals or something.
You know that as well as I do.
Like,
so I think that meme coin thing is interesting because like,
if it's true,
if it's true that many people just buy crypto because of the memetic effect
anyway,
right?
Tokenomic memes and whatever other bullshit,
like,
so what's wrong with just having a pure meme coin at that point?
You know,
like,
so the,
if all you cared about was the name anyway,
well,
now you got that and you can gamble on it or whatever the hell you want.
And so I think it's fine.
It's whatever.
But I do think it is a perpetual thing.
On the other hand,
it's like in a world where you can have infinity meme coins,
it's not this,
it's the same as having infinity layer ones or like infinity,
infinity YouTube channels.
Like at one point it was easy to get rich becoming like a,
a influencer on YouTube.
Like,
you know,
people that like go and make videos about shit.
And then that became harder and harder as the saturation took place.
So the trouble with the meme coin game game is going to be like everyone's attention is diverted because there's a meme point on practically every chain or,
and who's going to be the buyers of all these different meme coins at that point,
right?
Only a few are going to win.
So that's the thing about meme coins that makes them like there's kind of a,
I think they'll always pump some,
but I think the giga gains like,
you know,
your,
your Dogecoin run or your Shiba Inu run and stuff like that.
I don't know if that can happen repeatedly.
Like people make claims like,
it's going to be Pepe this year or whatever bonk or whatever the hell these different things are.
But I don't know.
What do you think?
Like they're,
they're going to,
you're,
they're going to,
people get increasingly bored of these things or these,
these things get bigger and bigger.
Or maybe the entire space is just one big meme coin to some extent.
Like Bitcoin is a meme coin or to a large extent it is like,
that thread file also has.
Yeah.
Trad for it does too.
Yeah.
To some extent.
Like Berkshire Hathaway,
you know,
these guys running a scam for a hundred years now.
Yeah.
That's funny.
Yeah.
But yeah,
a lot of things run on just sort of narrative and meme and advertising or whatever.
Hard to know what the impact,
but like it's,
I think that someone posted something that was very funny.
It's like,
you know,
most coins are like 5% fundamentals and 95% like just meme energy.
Right.
Like,
let me just think about,
I don't know,
pick,
pick a coin,
like a kosh for example.
All right.
is it worth a half a billion dollars?
Right.
For like a blockchain with that,
you know,
you use some tokens and things to set up like your cloud services payments.
First of all,
is a blockchain necessary for that?
The answer is kind of marginally.
I guess if you want to pay for it in a decentralized way,
I guess you could,
or even provide services in a decentralized way,
you could argue,
okay,
fine.
You know,
sure.
But like,
is it,
is there a half a billion dollars worth of activity going on there?
I think the revenue on that sucker is like what?
Like under 10,000 per day.
Like,
you know,
like,
like if you had a business that was making $10,000 of revenue per day,
and you're going to,
you're going to claim its market cap was 500 billion.
You can do a P to E ratio on that and realize,
well,
like most of this is meme,
like most of this meme energy.
Like even more so than stock market.
Cause stock market also has the same thing.
You'll have some company,
they'll claim they're going to build,
I don't know what the stock pumps into infinity.
Like a good example of this was beyond meat.
B Y N D.
I remember that.
Like everything's going to be like vegetable meat and whatever the fuck
else I'm going to be eating.
Like lettuce beef or whatever.
Didn't the CEO bite someone's ear?
Yeah.
The CEO bit someone,
but that's a whole nother meme.
Yeah.
Like,
but yeah,
but what happened was that everyone bought it on extreme speculation that,
we're,
we're going to the land of vegetarianism and,
you know,
like meats,
you know,
we can make meat for cheap and like turn out of synthetics and blah,
blah,
blah.
It'll be healthier for you.
Whatever.
Right.
All the garbage.
And then like the stock pumped into infinity.
Like it went way up,
go pull up the beyond meat chart.
It looks worse than a rug pull on a,
on a crypto project.
So these things can take,
take on legs.
Like I've had some funny,
I've had some crazy situations.
I remember.
So here's another one,
the 3d printer stocks.
So 3d studio.
And like,
what was the other one?
Stratasys and some other ones.
What happened is,
there was a period of time when all of a sudden the media was talking about 3d
printing,
3d printing,
3d printing,
and everyone's just turning the,
the butter on that one.
And what ended up happening was those stocks just like,
just skyrocketed,
like from $5 to like,
I remember it was like a hundred dollars and whatever it else,
like really just did like a 10 or 20 X in,
in a really short period of time.
And it was like,
the world's going to be different.
We're going to be 3d printing our hearts and shit.
And we're going to be 3d printing our,
our everything and whatever it's going to be in our house and blah,
blah,
blah.
And that was kind of the big narrative at the time.
And,
had you bought those stocks,
at any point during like,
I don't know,
in the top 90% of its price range,
those stocks have been absolutely crushed right now.
And they look terrible even to this day.
and,
and they're still in fights about,
I don't know what in their companies and stuff.
Anyway,
the point is like,
yeah,
a lot of that memetic energy is what drives the price of stock market to mega bubbles
to the difference in crypto is like,
that's just,
we consider it normal.
Whereas in stocks,
it's like,
something bad's going on.
Like they're,
they're,
you know,
maybe the company's not doing well or something like that,
but it happens all the time.
so I don't know that the meme coin thing I think is,
is here to stay forever.
I just don't know how much they're going to pump.
That's,
that's a different thing.
Cause like,
are they going to be around?
Sure.
Cause anyone can make a token.
You could just go on a token factory and make whatever you want.
By the way,
if you guys have a funny token you want to make,
go right ahead,
make it.
It's pretty much what costs you just the transaction fees.
but,
but,
to actually get it attention.
Ooh,
that's a harder,
harder thing.
Like,
how do you,
how do you get,
how do you find a team of people,
a big enough group and like get viral,
viral recognition and YouTube videos and whatever else?
Like,
how do you get the next doge coin or the next,
whatever?
I don't know.
So you just have to have a lot of owners,
the coin who then see their coins 10 X and they want to see them a hundred
And now they just start pumping it.
That's pretty much what the game is.
And,
it's a,
it's a difficult thing to do.
I would think people get bored quick.
Even the people that have their bags go up and get bored quick as soon as
there's a dip.
So that's a tricky thing.
Hey,
happy.
What's going on?
Happy there.
Rob,
are you having connection problems or what?
Robo connection issues or what?
Oh dude,
I hate Thailand sometimes.
I fucking hate the internet.
Like dude,
I was getting like fractions of it,
but the fractions I was getting were like,
yeah,
I heard what I heard.
It was like good enough.
Yeah,
dude.
I mean,
longevity with some of these memes,
it's quite weird how like longevity,
like that L meow just pumped,
but it's like being out ages and like one little tweet.
And then it like pumps like 4,000,
5,000%.
And it's like,
I don't know,
bro.
I used to spit on main coins.
I used to look down upon them.
I used to like look at them in the gutter.
I used to look at NFTs that way.
Dude,
I've learned you can't have any bias in crypto.
Like crypto is just about making money.
Crypto is about making money.
You don't want to,
you don't want to,
you don't want to fade any idea.
Too soon.
Exactly.
And just make money.
Yeah.
Just make money.
Cash out every day.
If you cash out $10 every day or something,
that's better than nothing.
Like whatever you make in crypto,
it's just a fucking gain.
Unrealized gains have to be the worst thing to cope with ever.
If you've just like got an airdrop of 30 grand and you watch you go to
fucking one grand,
like dude,
what you doing with your life?
Yeah,
that's funny.
That's sort of true.
Yeah.
The other thing,
like what,
you know what I've done with airdrops is sometimes like what I'll do is
I'll just,
I'll get the airdrop for free.
Right.
And then let's say it goes down to whatever it goes to.
I'll double my position in it and use the airdrop is like a DCA in a sense.
And I'll just keep them both.
We keep,
keep both positions.
I've done that.
If I like the project,
if I don't like the projects different,
that's me.
You know,
the first ever heat I've got in my life,
the first ever proper,
proper heat I got from the cosmos community.
I'm going to relate this to cosmos specifically because you've got Adam,
Adam in the title was,
was when like Juno's like approaching all time highs.
And I'm just like screaming everyone that was early.
Sell your daily.
Like,
so I was like,
literally I'm living on my daily rewards.
I kept like telling people,
right.
I've just sold me daily rewards.
I'm living on it.
Like how good is life?
Like Juno at $45.
I'm telling people sell all your daily rewards.
And then dude,
it ended up at 10 cents.
Who's the most?
Well,
here's the thing.
If you're doing so well that your yield is something you can live off of,
then you need to sell the whole bag.
Most likely.
Well,
I unbonded quite a bit after Prop 16.
I unbonded quite a bit after Prop 16.
Let's put it that way.
And then I unbonded quite a bit after Prop 16.
I actually,
I only unbonded 50% after Prop 16.
And that was like a risk-to-reward ratio.
Like I was like,
well,
if this goes like real,
real south and it's all locked up,
I'm fucked.
But like,
if it does well,
the half a bag I can dump isn't like,
kind of like,
so like the Juno thing.
And I mean,
I'm a Juno OG.
So that one's a difficult combo for me,
but I'm just glad that I did what I did when I did.
And when I really had me fill at like $5,
I was like,
send the cunt to 10 cents.
I made a tweet about it on my personal account.
Not the official one.
I was like,
send it to 10 cents.
I mean,
we basically,
we touched my call like 10 months later,
nine months later.
It's pretty decent.
You're right.
Dude,
can you believe I told everybody to put your Juno into Coogee at one-to-one?
I said to everybody on Twitter,
put your fucking Juno into Coogee at one-to-one.
I think it was like about when,
when one-to-one hit.
He's me.
Yes.
Shut up.
It's late here.
The dogs will wake up.
Dude,
Coogee was like,
maybe 30,
40 cents.
Juno was like $1.
And I'm like,
if it hits one-to-one,
just like swap your bags.
And the people that did,
the people have been fucking laughing for months now.
They've got airdrops,
like they've got nutsack,
they've got whatever else,
like good luck to people.
Yeah.
Fortune favors the win crypto.
Fortune favors the brave.
Like you've got to have big fucking cojones.
You've got to have big balls.
Got to put them on the table and stick.
Sorry,
dude.
One minute.
Sorry.
Sounds like your dog's about to take your balls off.
Me dogs.
Oh no,
I've ordered breakfast.
I forgot I ordered breakfast.
I was like,
join the convo.
I'm like,
that's me breakfast.
Sorry,
dude.
One second.
One second.
One second.
One second.
One second.
One second.
One second.
But yeah,
I'm just kind of watching this.
Yeah.
Chain link is like 7.80 on the nose,
right at fib resistance.
And every time it hits that exact number,
like pretty much exactly,
you get like a pause for several days.
It's pretty interesting.
It's amazing how many people trade on these things.
I'm betting on it's breaking out.
Yeah.
I'm betting on it's breaking out too.
Like I'm pretty sure I'm pretty close to sure now.
Yeah.
It looks loaded.
As you said the other day,
I think it's going to lead the market.
Yeah.
I think,
I think,
well,
at each of these levels,
I think what happens is some of the hedge funds and whatever,
the bigger funds,
I do think they do sell the resistance and,
you know,
they exit with some of their money.
And that's the reason why when you hit these levels,
you're like right on the nose.
They have a set.
They know that like other people are trying to buy at that level because
they're waiting for the break.
So they basically like sell,
sell off to retail during these moments,
which is why like these things conform to these charts so perfectly in some
level,
because they know everyone else sees a chart and they know that some people
want to buy the breakout and other people at the same time are like,
you're buying somebody's bag right at these levels.
Like who's selling to you exactly?
Well,
clearly someone's selling.
So that's where that,
that comes from.
just market making activity and stuff where they want to,
where they want to get out some of their positions.
They can,
you know,
that's just how they exit.
But at the same time,
like they might have their bag divided up into like fifths or something or
sevenths or something.
And they just,
with each level they're selling off more of their stuff.
And so the market continues upwards if you break past that resistance and,
and whoever is actually doing the selling,
which is kind of why I like the,
one of the things I'd like about the breakout trading from the highs,
like injective and what's it called optimism and some of these things that have broken out highs.
the benefit of doing that is that there's no bag holders.
So any resistance that you face is all really at that point,
you know,
based on fib extensions,
which tend to run really high.
you know,
people aren't selling that easily if they have already waited for the all time high break.
And so you tend to run quite a bit.
So getting like a two X to a 10 X off of these breakouts is not uncommon at all.
And that being the case,
it's like,
well,
you know,
if all you did was sell it at two X,
every time there's a all time high breakout,
you'd pretty much get a consistent two X over and over and over again.
Like if you didn't get greedy and all you did was sell for a two X again and again and again,
you could do it like repeatedly.
and that you could just,
just do that.
Like,
just do that only and not do anything else.
You probably do all right.
But anyway,
but like,
especially these lower market cap ones,
really high market caps.
You got,
you got a point there about strategy.
So Rack FM,
we're actually like,
so we're going to have a few grand now that we've been able to pull together and we're going to like next year,
you know,
plan like treasury investment,
treasury strategy,
blah,
blah,
blah.
And we'll be like,
we've been thinking,
how do you do it?
And we're dividing it up into like four,
like clear strategies.
So first of all is,
our opportunities.
And obviously we're dividing these responsibilities up with our opportunities because within Cosmos,
within these different protocols,
within the very fact you've got IBC and can transfer money quickly,
right?
Kind of like bridge list.
There are like,
we've seen many,
many opportunities,
right?
We're all not stupid,
right?
If you've been around long enough,
the next one is token unlocks and dumps,
right?
The next one is airdrop dumps.
Like you have to treat those two things like quite separately.
We've been saying,
and then the next one is just pure,
like mean,
like Asian coin players.
So like,
was like divided,
like,
like our treasury strategy in like four clear,
distinct areas and like assigned like responsibilities.
And we're like,
wait,
okay.
The art,
but like,
but all six of us are in on the entire thing.
Like the spreadsheets per up,
there's like plans,
like blah,
blah.
Like,
dude,
I get what you're saying.
Like crypto in the next 24 months,
36 months.
It's just about making money.
It's the Kevin O'Leary fucking old,
isn't it?
If you're not making money in the next 36 months,
then leave crypto.
Yeah.
Through that.
Well,
if you can't make it during a bear market,
then you got something going on.
I'm a bear market.
You have something going on.
Like you should be able to.
Do you follow?
Sorry,
I'm eating by the way,
breakfast.
By the way,
chicken nuggets and all for breakfast.
Do you follow unlocks?
Do you eat into like the unlock dumps and that or not?
I haven't really paid attention to all that.
I guess you can make a calendar.
You can probably make a calendar sometime,
huh?
DYDX,
YGG,
yeah.
Yield games.
I mean,
there's been some incredible unlocks and dumps.
I mean,
a cash.
You mentioned a cash earlier.
A cash must be one of the most like,
there's real money to be made if you're fucking smart.
And if you're like on the hunt,
but you've got to have time.
Anything is like crypto costs you like all the fucking spare time in the world.
You've got like,
so there's a balance between making money.
You become like a market analyst or something at that point.
But you could also argue that you don't need to do any of that shit.
All you have to do is set alarms on trading view and go,
hey,
like if the price drops 50% from here,
I want to know.
And then you could argue that it doesn't even matter why the price dropped.
Who cares?
Like,
you know,
if you know that you're willing to buy it at 50% dump or 70% up,
just set the alarm and then walk away.
And only if it hits the alarm,
then you do pay attention.
That's it.
And then it takes into account all of that kind of drama you're talking about.
And where it drops from and whatever,
it doesn't matter at that point.
And that's another way to look at it.
Keep it super,
super simple,
right?
Because you've got to have a plan that like you can actually execute on.
Or when the alarm hits,
you're not going to be panicked.
You're going,
wait,
this is a bad coin.
That's why it went down.
And so I don't want to buy it now.
You would have to know at that time.
But at the same time,
like you have a lot of time.
Once coins drop a whole lot,
they don't go up back to square one very easily.
So at that,
after it's dropped,
you can research all sorts of things at that point,
right?
And then decide if you want to keep it or buy it or whatever you want to do.
So there's different ways,
but usually what happens is when the price is low,
the community disappears,
nobody's talking about it.
And you're like,
is this a good coin or not?
Like it's legitimately hard to tell on the way down.
When the price is going up,
you're like,
wow,
the community likes this coin.
They're talking about it again.
And look at the price go up.
So it's,
it's really tough at the bottom to know whether it's time to buy or not.
Are you talking about keeping the project?
Are you talking about keeping the project in the public eye?
No matter what,
seven,
365,
because I would have to say out of every Cosmos project,
the racks have done this more than anyone.
And people can go and talk shit about us all day long.
You know what?
When you're talking shit about us,
you're talking about us.
Like people have never got the fucking fat though.
And we're trying to be canceled.
Like you're talking about us.
Like we're still in the new cycle.
Like there's one project that has not been out of the Cosmos new cycle for like 18 months.
And that's us.
Like,
and I'm talking on the daily basis,
like not a fucking weekly fucking whatever.
I'm talking daily people like all those fucking racks or what?
Like,
like literally now look at the level of respect we've gained.
Now look at the level of credibility.
We always knew it was there,
but like we had to do it our way and we wouldn't change it.
It's beautiful.
Sefi.
Have you seen the price of racks,
Sefi on it?
Cause did you buy the token or not?
I didn't know there was a token,
but no,
I didn't have the token.
The market cap,
you know,
the market cap did a 20 X from the bottom.
nice.
I wrote the medium article.
I wrote the medium article at the Pico bottom.
The first medium article,
not the second one.
I wrote it at the Pico bottom.
Dude,
it's 20 X market caps inside bottom.
Like I love being right.
But the thing is,
you just didn't need to brag about it.
Like you just need to put out tweets where you'll make people money.
Like make fucking people money.
That's anything.
Anyone should be tuning in these places for like anyone's opinion should be
listened to.
They're not making your money.
They're not relevant.
Well,
I mean,
we hang around just for entertainment,
some too.
Well,
the autistics.
You mean that when we bring the autistics in the room,
is that what you mean?
For the entertainment,
the little,
when we do the little autistic puppets.
Is that what you mean?
Or whoever.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Well,
I mean,
we have all sorts of characters around here,
which is fun.
I know,
but we just like,
you know,
let's be fair.
We just like using the quants to make money.
Don't we?
Like,
let's be honest.
We're not making friends.
We're calling lifetime partnerships.
Come on,
Seppy.
You know the school.
You know the school.
Like,
like I'm,
I'm pretty well off without having a bunch of people like do anything for me.
So it's not for me,
but yeah,
it's whatever.
I just enjoy talking about crypto.
Like it's just,
I've been doing it for years and years.
And like,
I think it's,
I think it's just fun talking technicals and playing.
It's like a big video game.
It's just,
it's literally no different than playing an MMORPG type of thing where,
you know,
you have guilds and you have like,
you got a dragon to beat.
And you know,
if number goes up,
that means you're winning.
If number goes down,
that means you're losing.
I don't know.
It's just fun.
It's just like a,
it's just more interesting than an actual video game.
It's the same,
you know,
it's almost like imagine playing poker,
but with chips,
but like,
there's no real money on the table.
It feels different.
Right.
And I think to some extent,
like,
you know,
the crypto space is like a big video game,
but add the,
maybe the addictive elements of some gambling in it.
And it's just kind of fun that way.
But it's interesting because,
you know,
it's the,
you could just spend the exact same amount of time playing an MMO video game
and,
you know,
make no income out of it.
And in theory,
there's like potential for income.
If you play this kid video game,
right.
And that's basically the only difference.
So crypto is like,
it's like a paid paid to play.
Isn't it the ultimate pay VP though?
Isn't it like the buy,
in the cell button?
This is what I was on about,
about race yesterday.
And I,
I've been quite silent about it,
but I got annoyed about all these people,
what he can and can't do with his own tokens.
And I'm like,
dude,
you realize it's like sweat equity.
Let you cheeky fucking cunt.
Sorry for the language.
I say Curry's down there and she doesn't appreciate swearing.
I was like,
you cheeky bastard.
that's worse.
That's less,
sorry.
I was like,
you cheeky bastard.
How can you tell people?
How can you tell people what the can and can't do with their like one salary?
Or they're like,
that is just like,
so like incorrect in the grand scheme of the human universe.
Like in my opinion,
like there's nothing worse than saying to people what you can and can't do with your own fucking money.
People will buy like tokens with like team allocations,
whether it's Juno or whether it's like,
I don't know,
say network or Celestia or whatever the hell it is.
And then the team sells.
and then people say,
the,
the team is dumping on you.
It's like,
what did you think you were doing?
You were buying a security token that basically like,
you know,
that the team is going to sell to fund operations.
What did you think was going to happen?
And I think as long as you're aware that that can happen,
people are happy when the numbers going up,
right?
They don't care about any of that shit.
But as soon as the number goes down,
they dumped on you and they did this and they did that.
It's just simply nonsense.
I think for people that don't like all that stuff,
buy yourself some Bitcoin or be done with it.
You've just brought up a brilliant test case.
I mean,
that's the whole thing about Jake.
So like,
you know,
there was all this outcry,
right?
But the,
the thing about what Jake was doing is it was happening on chain in real
time at the time.
But when fucking Stargast was pumping towards 80 cents,
no one fucking cared.
When Stargast is at the fucking 0.5 of a fucking sense.
all of a sudden the community has to develop a conscience.
This is the thing.
To be fair,
to be fair,
like when many of those tokens hit their tops,
and that's when some of the devs are,
you know,
may,
may,
may have been selling some,
they didn't necessarily mark the top because they sold necessarily.
The,
the entire market took a nosedive when UST took a nosedive,
as far as Cosmos is concerned and everything on osmosis got killed.
Right.
So there was definitely a AMM sort of battle that people are playing.
And,
you know,
like it didn't matter what you did right or wrong,
everything was going to go down.
Right.
So I don't know,
like,
like I don't like blame,
you know,
Jake or whoever for like building a project,
deciding to invest in it,
become an early investor,
sell some of the tokens or whatever.
And whatnot.
Like,
this is just like,
why would you,
he didn't,
he didn't,
he didn't,
or whatever he did.
I don't know.
He stayed.
Yeah.
He stayed.
He farmed.
Then he sold the farm and rewards from us.
so it wasn't a case of just dumping.
Right.
Right.
He did use strategy.
Like,
but the thing is,
nobody had a problem.
The wallets were traceable.
All of this was there on chain.
Nobody had a problem until the times got tough.
I mean,
crypto,
this is what we all need to remember.
This is,
I'll tell you what,
Seppy,
I actually came up earlier originally to say something to you.
Is it like,
yes,
we know your spaces have got longer.
We know they've become more frequent.
However,
at the depths of the bear market,
at the depths of the despair,
at the depths of the lunar crash and the FTX crash,
you were there.
You were putting out content.
You were putting out material.
Right.
You were flying the flag.
Right.
I know,
looking down in this audience,
from the people I do know,
who was here and who wasn't.
And that's what will be remembered.
Right.
The people that have built through the fucking bear and built like consistently with integrity.
And that's right.
Really.
It's really coming.
Like,
it's really becoming relevant and prevalent right now,
Mind Seppy,
as to who has been here when times got tough,
because times are going to get tough in three,
four years again.
And like,
who do I want to be hanging around with?
Snowflakes?
Or fucking chads?
I think I'll take the chads over the snowflakes any day,
man.
Well,
you have to keep an even keel over the years,
right?
Like,
because if you're going to be around for a bear market times,
you're going to like get some of those lows at that point.
And,
and you want to be able to sort of like,
again,
you know,
buy the bottom or whatever it is,
like,
you've got to keep an even,
even strategy and keep going.
You cannot,
you just can't get depressed about these things.
And so I think the,
the,
the lesson for most people is like,
well,
if you're allocated too heavily in certain things that you ought not to be,
especially for whatever your like overall,
you know,
you know,
portfolio or life,
you know,
like it allows,
then what will happen is you're going to be pretty depressed when the shit
hits the fan,
which is,
which happened to a lot of people.
And,
you know,
so like,
you know,
you know,
I lost plenty of money,
but like,
that's still not a lot compared to what,
you know,
all my other assets or whatever it works.
So that's a different story.
But I think like there's a lesson there.
And a lot of people that get wrecked,
they disappear,
not because they are necessarily immediately bored of crypto.
They're just,
there's just so much PTSD that they're like,
oh shit,
like that's a lot of money.
I just lost.
So then,
or at least I felt like they lost on paper and,
and they just can't bear to see it.
Cause it's just a lot more fun when number goes up,
right?
That's just a given.
When he goes down.
Yeah.
But wait a minute,
wait a minute.
They are not going to be the people that are going to make the real money in this upcoming cycle.
So like,
it's where do you draw the line between like,
say to people,
wake the fuck up,
get out your PTSD.
I mean,
I lost about,
I lost about 38 grand on the back of just giving 70 grand away between me ex-wife and me fucking family.
Right?
Like,
I literally made six fucking figures.
And in the blink of an eye,
I was back down to four.
I have had to work me way up the fucking decent,
like,
you know,
mid five figures.
And I'm decently positioned for moving forward in the bull market.
Like,
bro,
like,
you're not going to make it in crypto if you're not a fighter.
Like,
unless,
like,
Sephi,
I get what you're saying about crypto is like a pure sideline.
For people like me,
it wasn't,
it was a lifeline during like COVID when I lost my job.
Like,
all right.
And in a foreign country,
like it was a lifeline.
I've been through a lot since like,
literally,
I cannot live.
I'm going to have to go back to England and fucking live with my parents if I fucking didn't have crypto in my life.
And it's the people that like me that I believe that like want to fight.
You're paying the bills.
You're paying the bills.
How you're just like earning yield or something or you're like trading or what are you doing?
Fucking dude.
I was fucking selling the link top to pay the fucking mortgage fucking two years ago.
Man,
I've just been living on pretty much.
I mean,
I do work those pick up a little bit at the minute,
but because I'm not focused on crypto,
like I'm going to really have time for work.
Like,
it's quite a difficult combo.
In a way though,
it's probably healthier if you have to spend your crypto.
And you have to spend it on the rent.
Because then you say to yourself,
wait a minute,
okay,
I'm up this much.
And I've got like,
this will pay six months of rent.
And if I don't have that,
I'm going to be on the street.
So there is a,
there is kind of like a healthy selling that will happen.
And if you know,
you have to have that money for something versus if you just like,
you know,
are purely speculating and number goes up and then number goes down and whatever else.
I think I made 900 books.
And they'd made 900 books on Saturday and literally in the space like two and a half hours.
And it was out and in the bank in fucking seconds.
And like,
I don't know.
I forgot.
I haven't even looked at a chart and that chart since.
Like,
I didn't give a fuck.
Like just we talk,
we keep talking about unrealized profits.
Unrealized profits should be everybody's in crypto.
If you're in crypto to any degree whatsoever,
these two words should go through your mind every night before you go to sleep.
And every morning before you wake up,
unrealized profits should be the biggest thing in your mind that you should be like,
because you need to realize them all because they'll always be something else for investing.
They'll always be the next like fad,
next meme,
blah,
blah,
whatever.
But like,
if you up a 10X and then you wake up the next morning and it's fucking back to fucking,
I don't know,
minus fucking 50%,
like you're going to hate yourself for a week.
Like no one ever hate themselves taking profit.
It's got to be relentless.
It's got to be drilled into your mind.
Because,
you know,
I said,
when you see these like games and you see these life changing stories,
it becomes a fairy tale.
It becomes like this,
thing in your head.
And honestly,
in the real,
listen to what I mean,
didn't it get married to your bags?
Didn't it overextend,
like overextend yourself?
Like,
in a real run up of the ball,
fucking four or six,
maximum.
Like,
real hardcore picks.
Like,
where you've got pure conviction that you really feel like.
It's just,
it's,
I don't know,
2018.
And,
you know,
look at what the game was then,
Seppy.
And look at the game now.
And tell me,
are we in the same game as what we were then?
And I wasn't even around then,
but I've researched it.
Keep changing.
Yeah,
we keep changing.
Exponentially.
And the next one's going to be even,
even these like infra,
like,
supply chain management shit.
And like these infra,
like what's the latest one?
Deepin.
Decentralized,
physical infrastructure networks.
Deepin,
right?
So like,
dude,
it's another buzzword.
That's another.
It is.
Deepin is just another buzzword.
Like literally supply chain was the buzzword in 2020.
Like that's where I fucking,
but VAT,
VAT and all the rest of them.
V chain,
all that shit.
Yeah.
Exactly.
You know the score.
Like,
it's just another narrative.
Like generally infra,
unless it's like chain link or one or two others,
infra doesn't really do like too well.
Well,
that's because there's a,
there's a gigantic amount of execution risk on those.
so it's like,
it's easy to say,
we're going to run the world on V chain,
but it's a whole nother thing to actually make companies do it.
It's just,
that's the reason why that's the,
the execution is really,
really tough.
It's just vaporware.
That's why fetch is a pivoted.
I mean,
since the early Bosch days,
like the 2019,
2020 Bosch days were set.
Like they've really pivoted,
like with the AI stuff.
And I think with infra stuff,
you can basically throw a small bag at them and you would basically want to like,
just simply hold them forever.
If you got them early,
early,
early.
And then the reason why you get a very small bag is if,
if it moons,
like it's like,
you know,
the 10,000 X's or whatever,
well then don't worry about it.
It's,
it's great.
Right.
Your,
your moon,
your moon bag did well.
If it doesn't,
and it goes to zero,
well,
who cares?
Because like you didn't care that much about it enough to research it and pay
that much money anyway.
And you just don't care.
So that's a good way to think of those is like,
you know,
a hundred bucks or whatever,
you know,
whatever's small for people like stay really small and don't worry about it
afterwards,
but just don't mess with it either.
Just in case it goes up.
but anyway,
church,
church,
he was asking,
by the way,
real quick,
he was asking him comments about something I wanted to cover real quick.
he was asking about the,
what does he think about Levana's token and whatever's going on with that?
And,
I was going to say like,
I've picked up,
I definitely picked up some of Vana.
I got dumped on because of that market maker shenanigans thing.
I'm not necessarily happy about that,
but I just basically added some,
Levana on the way down a bit.
and,
again,
like,
you know,
you can go by market caps and things,
but the reality is like these things get released at unrealistic market
caps.
They hang out at unrealistic market caps and then they moon to unrealistic
market caps too.
So with Levana,
you know,
just figured I would just have a bag of it,
at these market caps.
If it's successful,
you know,
something like that could still do like a,
you know,
20 X from here,
it's all feasible.
it just depends on again,
like how well the team executes so far,
their projects have been running well and people like their purpose platform.
So there's no reason why like those same fans of that platform might
ultimately end up being the bottom buyers of the actual coin.
And then slowly,
like it'll pick up some steam,
I think.
So I'm underwater,
on my LBN position that I bought last week.
And,
I just sort of left it alone and I'm,
I'm just sort of riding it.
So it is what it is.
but then again,
like how many things have I written down like 90% or more,
a lot.
and then like one season later,
I'm doing fine.
so some of those,
like the,
the key to some of those early buys is definitely like,
don't buy too much.
And then also don't,
like if,
if it's at any amount,
like that you're going to feel like,
okay,
if it goes down 90%,
I'm going to panic and I'm going to sell low and you should not be buying it.
Period.
End of story.
Like these are the new,
the,
all these new coins and things that come out,
new projects,
you're going to get shaken out and then you're going to wind up selling the
bottom.
And then it doesn't just doesn't make any sense.
Like why bother?
So some of them,
you can just still simply hold,
they do a 90% down,
but when they come back to previous levels,
they might do like a 20 X from there.
So you really have to be careful about,
yeah,
like fumbling those bags when worrying about your portfolio level and shit like
this.
yeah,
be careful over allocating.
don't put too much into those type of new project coins and things.
Cause you have no idea how much dumping,
pressure they're going to have or execution risk or whether or not there's
smart contracts or say for all these other things.
Like just,
you have,
you have to assume that whatever you throw into those things is going to go
to zero,
by the way.
It's a 50,
It's a,
it's a 50,
50 right now.
And I'll tell you why.
Shall I?
Yep.
It's a 50,
50 between the,
product itself,
which is absolutely first rate in my humble opinion.
I've been like flipping around with LaVonna and like literally just soul.
And like,
I've had like seven out of eight hits in the last like week or something.
The product is exceptional.
the integrity of the team.
Well,
that's another conversation.
So it all depends on whether you can put like your biases aside and just say
like,
fuck it.
I don't give a fuck about the history,
the reputation,
their very,
very recent history with the mock and make a situation who has,
by the way,
remained anonymous.
I will say that.
I mean,
I've been in these situations before and all the chains and that,
and the mock and makers that have done this have been named,
but,
not at the minute with LaVonna,
as far as I'm aware,
unless anyone can contradict me,
I believe they're,
not named.
I wonder why.
Well,
what happened,
what happened was that,
the,
the,
the listing that they had was on,
things on met C and I was on gate,
no gate.
I'm sorry.
Gate.
And the problem when you list on an exchange is that if you set up,
I know all about the gate situation and all about the gate situation,
how it works.
And I do,
I mean,
dude,
listen,
it was a fuck up.
It was an absolute fuck up to the highest level of degrees.
Like I didn't want anyone to bullshit.
The round and pussyfoot around the LaVonna thing.
And that's why he hasn't been near Racka Femson.
Cause he knows we wouldn't have them have them on.
And like,
I like,
certainly there's real like history,
recent history.
Like they're fucked up big time.
Let's not fuck around.
Yeah.
I mean,
what happened there was basically that they list an ICO price at gate.
And that price is different than what was already,
a there's like,
it doesn't make sense to provide an ICO price on gate lower than the price
that is already trading on osmosis.
Right?
Like that is simply unacceptable.
So that's the,
that's the mistake right there.
And then the market maker is going to basically ARB that difference.
And that's just going to be automatic.
That's just what's going to happen.
That's how that works.
So really,
if you look at it,
it's not really the market maker's fault for having done their job.
It's having released a like ICO price on a,
on an exchange that doesn't make any sense.
Like,
it's like,
this is what happened.
I think more than anything.
so it's basically,
I mean,
in your trade,
it's net like it's negligence.
It is.
But at the same time,
like,
I don't think they knew.
So the way,
the way these exchange listings work is they figure out like in the
background,
okay,
we're going to be launching on this such and such date.
And nobody knows what the price is on osmosis was going to be at the
time,
but they probably already had an agreement with the exchange ahead of time.
So some of the problems,
is like timing and logistics with these damn things.
but what you shouldn't do,
you shouldn't harm,
you shouldn't harm your original community,
which is the people that bought on the original,
like on osmosis,
because that's the community that is the most loyal.
It's not about that.
It's not about that.
Isn't it about,
so it,
right.
If you,
if you're on,
it's about that to me,
that's what it's about for me.
Like you don't harm your original community that bought your coin at a
lower price.
I'm sorry.
How much,
price,
how much got airdrop?
Where though?
How much got airdrop?
Where though?
It didn't like a lot more get dropped like on chain than got dropped on
gate.
So if you're part of like the gate,
like mining program thing,
don't you get access to like,
so like it wasn't this some airdrop on,
yeah,
yeah,
yeah.
So like there was a lot more airdrop,
I believe on osmosis and with the people got on gate who were part of like
the mine and other thingy program with like whatever the stake that,
you know,
what it's like on Q coin same with KCS token.
I'm sure like,
like osmosis,
like the price went down because like people were dumping the airdrops,
right?
Well,
I mean,
the airdrop came afterwards that after this thing,
right?
So that's a different thing.
So yeah,
any airdrop dumping,
that's going to happen.
How did the price drop so much on osmosis compared to gate?
How did that actually happen?
what happened was that there was the ARB difference between the price on
osmosis and gate.
That's what caused the initial dump because the market makers had to sell
what was on osmosis in order to like,
like buy on gate to,
to ARB the price back to equal on both exchanges.
Wait a minute.
You're telling me it was just a launch price.
Is that it as a launch price?
Really?
I'm not sure.
Yeah.
Well,
I'm not sure exactly what happened.
Yeah.
But there's something like that.
Yeah.
And the gate price was a lot higher,
but I thought,
I thought the fact that I thought it was a airdrop.
I thought people were dumping Levana on osmosis,
which took the price down,
which meant they had to like align the price with like,
well,
it was on gate,
right?
I might have this story wrong.
I need to go and revisit this situation.
Like someone needs to fill me in with a Levana crack properly.
Hold up sec.
One minute.
All I don't know is someone dumped off a million.
Anyway,
the way to think of these things for people is like,
you're never going to be able to identify or,
nor are you going to be able to pre-research any of these kinds of issues,
right?
Like you won't know for sure what's going to happen.
So this is true for any coin,
any team,
whether you think they're legit,
whether you think they're not,
whether you think they're good people,
whether you think they're not,
all that stuff is just water under the bridge.
Cause at the end of the day,
even like good teams make horrific mistakes from time to time.
So the way you have to conceive of all these kind of like new coins and
things is just assume that like,
you know,
95% dumps can happen regardless of what price you think is fair or what price
you think you bought it at.
And on the flip side of that,
a hundred X's can happen with no rationality whatsoever.
So like that's part of the game here.
And if you're,
if you're in a coin that you believe can do a hundred X,
then you need to understand that it can do a 90,
you know,
95% drop from wherever you bought it as well.
And that's just normal for the space.
So there is no way you get those kinds of multiple gains without having that
simple,
like same level of requisite risk necessary.
Right.
Because if the,
here's the thing,
if that was not the case,
like if what I'm saying is not true,
then like,
let's say you're talking about in the stock market,
let's say,
you know,
Facebook IPOs or something like that.
I remember that IPO,
like the price dumped considerably after the IPO.
And that's because it was perceived that like the team had done what price,
the stock too high.
And therefore like the market cap,
you know,
is not justified.
And like,
you know,
the,
once it gets listed,
sellers and buyers show up,
but then the team decides to sell maybe and dumps the price or whoever.
Right.
Or maybe like,
yeah,
like some of the VCs or whoever might've sold things like that.
So if you have something that is like undervalued,
then the team doesn't make any money.
And the,
the newcomer might make money.
Like the investor might make more money.
On the other hand,
if it's overvalued,
the team might be the one they can dump.
They can make more money.
And,
and,
and the other way around is not true.
Like where the retail gets screwed.
So someone gets screwed at some point,
no matter what happens.
And like getting a perfect fair launch for a perfect fair price.
It's a very difficult thing to achieve.
even if it's like a legit team and they're nice people or whatever,
like,
and they're trying to do a good job.
someone always gets burned on price action.
Someone always buys higher than they,
they ought to.
And number goes down and other people,
you know,
you know,
don't deserve it.
And then it goes up or whatever.
Like,
so I don't know what to make of all that.
rubble.
It's like,
there's almost not even a reason to sort of get that into the details of all
that,
because like,
unless you're going to be an analyst and literally put in,
like,
if you're going to invest a million dollars or $10 million into something,
okay,
I can get it.
Like you're going to spend all day and night,
like researching all these people and sorting all this shit out.
but like if you,
are,
are throwing a hundred bucks at something,
like it's better to just gamble and go,
okay,
wait,
it could go to zero or it could go to infinity and I'm just not going to
worry about it.
Right.
Like what,
like,
like who has time to sort out like all these nuances of these teams.
You don't.
So saying that,
are,
are all of your like collectives crypto assets just a meme at this point
compared to the other like traditional assets,
whether that be like real,
real estate,
stock shares,
whatever.
Like,
like is crypto just a meme to you at this point?
I've got the hiccups by the way,
I brought so bad.
I've been doing a lot of video.
Yeah.
Many of them are without a doubt.
I mean,
like take for example,
is there any reason injective is worth what it's worth?
of course not.
Like there's not even close,
right?
Like it just happens to be the beneficiary of the pump of mentals or
whatever.
You know,
could you have guessed for sure that that would have been the one that
would have run up this much?
I don't think you would have been able to guess for sure,
no matter how much you did research on it.
Sophie,
Robo,
can I add one thing on the Nirvana story?
I'm not sure if you're aware,
but there are a lot of LPs on the PERP protocol,
just like USTC or INJ or whatnot,
around the PERP protocol,
right?
And they supposed to get the funding fees or a share of that and they're all
on the water,
but they got all the airdrops.
So I think that adds to the sales pressure.
And it's actually interesting because some of these pools are down like 80% to
the dollar.
And as soon as we get some drawdowns or whatnot,
I think that these pools will recover because I think the protocol works,
which is kind of an interesting thing to look at.
But at the moment,
I think that led also to some dump in the token price because they are like,
I'm so much underwater.
I'm just trying to recover whatever from,
from selling my airdrop,
right?
It's just my guess.
I don't know.
Again,
noob,
it's like,
I think why buyers and sellers are doing what they're doing in the market,
is a very difficult thing to really be sure about.
And let's say you were sure about it.
How's it going to help you for sure?
It doesn't really,
this is why I don't research all this stuff.
It's like,
it's almost immaterial.
Like let's say you knew for sure,
like an X project,
this,
this,
and this happened.
Is that going to prevent you from having that same thing happen in the next
project you buy?
I don't think so.
Like,
and not only that,
but like,
even if you did learn exactly what happened,
like on the next project that you buy,
it's probably going to be a different set of black swan events or,
or BS that might drive some of that.
So I don't,
I agree.
I try not to,
I try not to overthink that stuff personally.
Like this is the reason why you'll notice why,
like I,
I just do simple shit like fib levels and fib extensions.
And the reason is because like,
I like,
if you start to,
if you start to bother with all the rest of it,
then you'd get like into a quagmire of,
of like,
you know,
rabbit hole research that just goes nowhere.
So honestly,
I like it because there's so much thought,
there's so much many pissed off people.
It's always good to get a good entry on the stuff,
right?
They have a shiny,
nice website.
It's working on,
on osmosis.
It's pretty,
pretty sound.
Everything liquidity is there,
you know?
So yeah,
it looks like shit.
It's a chance,
right?
That's how I see it.
Yeah.
The question now is like,
okay,
so like the LBN token price has gone down.
Like,
what is it now?
Let me see.
20 cents.
So the question is,
is it a good buy now or not?
Right.
That's,
that's the real question because you're going to get like,
let's say you bought it a dollar.
You can get a lot more at 20 cents.
So the question is,
is it still not low enough or does it need to go down to two cents?
And then it's a good buy.
I don't know the answer to that.
Yeah.
But let's say you give it a year,
you know,
but that's the trick,
right?
Even,
even knowing all this,
how do we know exactly what would be construed as a good buy here?
I think the guy is crazy enough that the protocol won't stop.
You know,
I think it's like this weird genius.
Yeah.
Jonathan's autistic enough or whatever.
Yeah.
He's,
he's obsessive enough to get it done.
Cause like,
think about this.
He's been around since like,
you know,
Vitalik and company were starting Ethereum.
So Jonathan's been around a bit.
So if he were sort of like just some sort of simple grifter or whatever,
like,
why would he try and try again?
Cause he,
he had good stuff happening on Terra,
but the thing when Terra crashed their entire treasury and all of their
thing went up in smoke.
Right.
So he had to basically start over.
So you can feel for why,
like they've had a hard time and maybe,
you know,
there might be strapped.
He has got a quest,
a history of questionable behavior though.
Like,
let's not be fucking,
let's not be around the bush.
Such as what?
I'm not going to go there.
Cause I wasn't involved at like,
but I've got very,
very,
very good friends that were very deep in the community.
I'm talking like discord modes and listen,
dude,
I'm just going to say extremely questionable,
sketchy history up to this point.
And if anyone's going to come up on the stage and argue,
well,
come on them,
but I can't,
but I do know,
but I'm not going to come up here and sell me friend out and say,
you know,
I've heard this and that.
Like anyone who knows,
but,
but again,
it's the same thing.
It's like without specific evidence,
you know,
like all the evidence in the world,
what you're talking about,
but it's not going to influence my decision unless the evidence is made like really clear to me.
And if it's,
if it's enough,
if it's important enough to be available,
it's important enough to be public.
It's fine with me.
Like,
so it's like,
if you're worried about throwing someone under the bus,
I don't care.
Like if the reality is if someone deserves to be thrown under the bus,
they should be,
it's fine.
But the point is like,
like,
so hearsay of,
of various people saying various things.
I don't know what that means.
Like businesses deal with this all the time.
The CEO of a bit of a company is always blasted for somebody.
They fire someone there.
There,
someone's upset.
They,
you know,
don't pay the salaries enough,
like for their employees and the unions get upset.
There's always someone pissed.
So like in business,
the thing is the leader always gets a lot of shit,
especially if things don't go well.
especially like in the terror crash,
for example,
the,
you know,
like where I'm sure like,
all hell broke loose in terms of his organization or whatever.
So I don't really know exactly,
but the,
the point is like,
you know,
each of those specific things that have to be addressed on their own merit to
make it really useful to us to judge one way or the other.
Cause the question is like,
have lots of people done lots of shady shit in their lives?
Sure.
Right.
Like,
like,
so the question is what,
what shady shit deserves forgiveness and what doesn't,
I don't know the answer to that.
Like,
but the probability that like,
if you take any given crypto organization with a team of,
let's say a dozen people,
the odds that some fraction of those have done dirty deeds,
the odds of that gets close to a hundred percent.
I would say the point is not even what you're saying is now what he's saying
is the redemption arc.
And he's right.
The redemption arc in crypto is very fucking shallow.
I've never known any industry where the memory like is so fucking willing.
You've got people that can rogue and come back three months later and be
declared a hero.
Like how many times have we seen this over and over and over again?
Like I can give you 10 cases of like villains to heroes.
In like three to six months.
It's ridiculous.
but I mean like,
for example,
someone could say something negative about you,
for example,
they might say,
well,
he's fighting somebody's project because he said something about something.
And so I'm not a dev.
I'm not a dev though.
I'm not a dev.
Sure.
Sure.
But you get my point.
Like,
but at the same time,
like as soon as you're sort of in the human realm,
you're something in the human realm.
And the minute you start talking,
next thing you know,
people can be upset with what you said.
Like take for example,
like I was interested in like the,
the token mechanism of Luna and UST.
And I thought it was really cool and shit.
And like,
and it was like,
Oh yeah,
I think that like it could actually have really cool price action if this
thing works and does what it's supposed to do.
And you know,
the team doesn't fuck up and you know,
TFL has a gigantic bag,
but I'm really still interested in Luna.
And I had an outsized bag of the thing.
And so I thought it was really cool.
thing,
you know,
basically gets wrecked and,
you could argue that,
well,
he said that it was a cool thing and therefore like,
that's why I bought it and blah,
blah,
blah.
And he's a bad guy.
Or you could say like,
I had a whole bunch of money invested in the Voyager people.
Cause I was like,
I really wanted them to succeed.
I really felt like we needed like,
you know,
crypto apps that were,
you know,
more newbie specific and like,
whatever.
And I like,
did I know that they would fucking like,
you know,
like lend a good,
you know,
you know,
whatever it was,
$20 billion or however much it was,
or I don't remember the exact number,
but like a gigantic amount of money over to,
you know,
hundreds of millions of dollars.
You're going to like lend to three hours capital.
I didn't know that.
So like a lot of things that happen in the space,
I think also happened because your opinions are based on good intentions,
but that doesn't necessarily mean that things are going to
come out well.
And that's probably true of like crypto founders and stuff too.
In business,
there's always trade-offs in terms of like the,
the positions you take,
the,
the investments you make,
the people you get involved.
And especially in crypto,
it's hard because like a lot of the people in the space,
you don't have any way of vetting them exactly.
So even if the CEO is a nice guy or whatever,
and two of the people are scammers in the group,
it's going to wind up falling on the,
the CEO,
the problem is in a decentralized system.
You exactly have the problem of not everyone that you meet,
you're going to be able to vet and you're going to be able to like,
make sure that they're good people and whatever.
so yeah,
like in crypto more than anywhere,
the probability of having some sort of scammer involved is high.
and those of us who tend to be optimists,
as far as like people are concerned,
where we don't tend to,
like think bad about people as like our primary,
like,
you know,
mode,
like we're more likely to get burned than people who are ultra skeptical.
On the other hand,
I would argue the ultra skeptical people don't make any money.
Like I want you,
I want you guys to memorize that.
if like the number of times that Apple stock was fudded,
right?
Like,
you know,
like if I believed all of that over most of my lifetime,
then we wouldn't be like sitting here talking on these iPhones today.
Like,
you know what I mean?
Like,
so the reality is like the winners,
end up being almost largely optimists,
regardless of all the other reasons why you might get duped into whatever.
You know,
the metrics of the VC,
right?
They,
they,
they have like a nine in one chance of a win.
And yeah,
one of their,
one of their things,
10 X and the other ones go to zero.
Yeah.
Something like that.
It's just like marginally cashflow positive.
So they can still lose the money on the other projects and still make money.
Right.
yeah.
If they get enough.
Yeah.
If they get into the right things.
Yeah.
But yeah,
to be fair to Jonathan,
to be fair to Jonathan,
he hasn't really give a fuck like at any time.
I see.
I mean,
if you want to epitomize a project that's like given zero fucks about what the community was saying or thinking,
it will be Levana.
I mean,
that's a pretty shining fucking example.
So fair play on that point.
Yeah.
I don't,
I don't know.
Like the other thing too,
is like this decentralized community stuff.
Like to some extent,
like I think,
projects shouldn't give a flying fuck with the community things.
Like,
like I'll give you a great example of this.
Like,
let's say Apple computer.
Like if Steve jobs gave a fuck with the community thought,
we wouldn't be standing here on our phones today.
That's just the facts.
Like that's reality.
Like most people had no idea what they were talking about.
Like in like 99% of people in tech,
like who are observers of tech or participate in tech have maybe a modicum of understanding what they want out of the tech,
but they don't certainly don't have any clue of how to design or build it.
He was a modern day Nazi.
He was a modern day Nazi.
Like let's not be fucking like Steve jobs was a modern day Nazi.
Like the Apple headquarters back in the day was run.
Like people wouldn't believe like the security access.
But unfortunately that was the only way to get the job done.
And that's what it was.
And,
you know,
it is what it is like.
yeah,
the innovators and the people that have to be really aggressive in business are not necessarily friendly and nice people and are not necessarily the like,
like,
put it this way.
Had Steve jobs not been successful,
they would have just,
he would have been number one,
he would disappear into nothing.
No one would ever even remember him,
but his behavior would have been considered wholesale and acceptable.
Had he not been successful.
So did he die?
Did he die of it?
So what?
I mean,
this is the crack,
isn't it?
Right now.
Did he die of it?
He was pancreatic.
He was a,
basically,
he was a kind of a goofball.
He didn't,
he was like a holistic thing and he got pancreatic cancer.
You know,
he had it.
You know,
he had it,
right?
You know,
you're saying the doctor's letter.
He had AIDS.
Like Steve jobs.
Jobs.
Jobs didn't have AIDS.
He had a,
he had a liver.
Dude,
the weekly,
I'm not saying the weekly leads don't,
they're just done.
The doctor's letters in there brought,
fuck.
it's bullshit.
All right.
You know,
you don't get a liver transplant if you have AIDS.
So it's not even feasible.
So he had a liver transplant because on the UNOS list.
So the,
the United,
the,
the organ donation list,
right?
So he got a liver transplant because he fucked up.
He should have just got his pancreatic cancer cured,
by simply resecting the damn thing.
Cause that was well known that simple solution.
He didn't want to have an operation.
He decided to drink vegetable drinks and other bullshit instead.
And so he went the holistic supposed route instead of just simply getting the
damn tumor out.
And then the cancer created a situation where he winded up having to have a,
you know,
like it affected his liver and whatever else.
And so he wound up with this gigantic transplant thing and he was on
transplant meds.
He was not,
he didn't have AIDS.
He had,
he was,
this is how people look when they're on.
Sorry,
dude,
I've just actually got a DM.
Wait,
I've just got a DM.
Sorry.
HIV.
So there's a doctor and a fish,
he's official doctor.
Right.
With the liver,
Rick and make,
Rick and make,
making the recommendation for a specialist because he's got HIV.
I mean,
WikiLeaks has just dropped this like two weeks ago.
So like,
yeah,
from what he didn't look like,
he looked like a liver transplant patient.
Did a dump.
WikiLeaks did a dump about,
they did like a massive dump,
like,
like how many files?
Like what,
all the rest of the other files we already knew were in play,
but they're like collated it all together.
And they did,
dude.
So he said he was allegedly HIV at the time.
I don't know.
Anyway,
whatever,
who cares?
Hey,
the point is like he,
the,
the,
yeah.
Anyway,
at the end of the day,
he tried to keep it quiet though.
He tried to keep it quiet as a thing.
And that's,
that's the interesting thing is he tried to keep it quiet.
You wouldn't be living in Thailand now.
And crypto wouldn't be where it is now.
If it wasn't for Steve jobs,
it's that's,
it's truly that simple.
Like,
you know,
like I've got a moment.
I mean,
pre,
pre,
pre Steve jobs,
pre Steve jobs.
None of our lives would be what they are now.
If it wasn't for whatever he did,
every single one of us would have different lives.
Every single one of us.
there's no yes and no.
It's one of the,
like his work,
like what,
whatever did he did to organize the teams,
to build the computers.
He did changed every single one of our lives for every minute of every day
that we live now,
for sure.
Like we would all,
we wouldn't even be in the same universe.
It wasn't for him.
Okay.
Well,
what do you think about the man himself?
Who?
Like take away state jobs,
take away his achievements.
Like,
like,
like the man himself as a human,
as a human.
And obviously his history is family history.
And yeah,
I mean,
basically,
don't get me wrong.
I mean,
the guy is quite simply kind of like,
he has that sort of like,
sort of just that strange esoteric behavior.
Like he's always been just weird.
It's that simple.
Like you,
you're not going to be able to fix that.
You know,
like the Coldplay song,
fix you.
It's a little bit more than weird,
isn't it?
It's a little bit more than weird,
isn't it?
Yeah.
But,
but then again,
I've,
I've met people 10 times weirder than that.
So it's like,
at this point,
like having met like murderers,
rapists,
serial killers,
and every other type of human being,
it's like,
like there's no human being that surprises me anymore.
Like,
it's that simple.
Like paranoia,
he's paranoia,
like led to a lot of people leaving Apple.
Sure.
So like the whole thing about the security situation,
about like,
like Apple was so regimented,
like you were at that level and that's it.
You couldn't go any further in the company,
like in regards to like the doors you could go through and the security,
like there was this inner sanctum of like,
and he created this real weird culture mind before they even start a
manufacturing abroad.
Like,
he's a weird character.
And a lot of why like the latter half of Apple was successful is really Tim
Cook.
He's just like a,
you know,
he's just an obsessive.
He doesn't have Johnny Ivan.
I'm Johnny Ivan.
I mean,
Johnny Ivan as well.
The British,
the British.
Come on.
Well,
Johnny,
I would get designs.
Surely.
Yeah.
Helped out in terms of like getting designs that people wanted to play with for
sure.
I agree.
But yeah,
like,
but,
but the supply chain,
the amount of work it takes to build all these things every year,
year after year after year it's,
and making sure that like someone supervising that,
like,
you know,
basically Tim Cook being essentially gay and a bachelor with no family with
like just completely committed his entire life,
like a monk to Apple pretty much is what like led to the latter success of
keeping it going.
you know,
and even a CEO,
he's maintained like,
you know,
crazy high revenues and everything.
it's like 400 companies,
isn't it?
It's like in the supply chain of Apple is around about 400 individual
companies.
I don't even know how that shit works.
It's amazing.
there's few people on this planet that executed at that level in the whole
history of the human race.
Right.
Like that's,
it's that simple.
Like all the personal.
To protect the IP.
Yeah.
what they've done is to protect the IP.
There's other like,
like,
contract out these individuals,
little components that they would like,
only those wouldn't know how to put together.
Like,
it's like,
like the con like produce like the serious IP on mass and mass,
I should say,
like in a,
in a,
viable,
economically viable,
like way.
it's like really weird.
How they like get that little component from there.
And then they'll put it together in their own little way by their own design.
But they's like,
dude,
they have got the create.
I think Apple might have one of the craziest supply chains in modern day
history.
Yeah,
of course.
Yeah.
It's amazing stuff.
I mean,
even like companies like T,
Taiwan semiconductor just run an amazing ship.
I don't know if you've seen the work they've done.
Like their factories in Taiwan are just ridiculous.
Like next level sci-fi shit going on over there.
Like,
you know,
like,
and if you want to talk about paranoia,
you think it's going to take 20 years for the Americans to make a plant as
good as what they've got going on in Taiwan.
Like literally these are light years ahead of anything we can even imagine.
well not,
not quite that light,
not that far ahead.
yeah,
you shouldn't underestimate the likes of Intel and AMD.
Didn't Biden,
didn't Biden do a 5 million investment?
Didn't Biden do a 5 million investment?
Where is it?
Like,
Arizona or somewhere?
They've got,
you've got the plant.
The issue,
the issue in Taiwan is that like the Taiwanese people are just excellent,
sort of like obsessive engineers.
And,
it's very difficult to find that kind of a crew anywhere else in the world at
this moment.
That's the issue.
It's not so much that like,
they're more Chinese.
Yeah.
You have geographically stable,
like locations in the U S that you could easily build these things.
The issue is the specific people involved are very,
very impressive.
And,
that's the hard part to replicate right now to,
to produce semiconductors at the scale and pace that they produce them is
really tough.
but anyway,
you know,
what's one of the best,
you know,
what's one of the best careers there?
it's like an individual kind of start look like optician.
So my friend Vivian,
great friend.
I've been friends with us since we've backpacked on like 2007.
And she's been in Thailand.
I've visited me a couple of times.
Bro,
she's an optician.
She makes so much money.
She tells me like what she tells me like,
like Taiwanese are obsessed at like looking at things like from an early
age.
That's all they do is like computer games,
like TV,
like just staring and staring at things.
But like,
the high IQ East Asians are very,
very interesting.
Like,
the Japanese,
for example,
have been obsessed with cameras since their inception.
Like if you go to any tourist site,
go anywhere in the world and you'll find that the Japanese person is
literally living with their camera.
Like they're just like shooting pictures all the time.
Like they can't even enjoy the space without taking pictures of it.
Have you noticed this?
Is Kodak Japanese or no?
Is Kodak Japanese?
Kodak was Eastman Kodak.
That's American.
But the,
but a lot of the Japanese camera companies,
Canon and the Nike,
you know,
whatever Nikons or whatever.
What was it?
Fuji or something?
Yep.
Fuji.
but a lot of companies that are Japanese,
like the obsessiveness with photography and the precision,
that they built equipment.
So like the Germans were also similar in that's like Zeiss and some of the
other like optics and whatnot.
So yeah,
between the Germans and the Japanese,
you have like two groups that are just extremely obsessed about precision
engineering and whatnot.
And so like,
yeah,
very few people beat the Germans and the Japanese in this regard in,
in many of these areas.
And a lot of like,
and a lot of American groups that are companies that were built,
were actually,
a mixture of.
I like.
Wait a minute.
Right.
One second.
One second.
Hey,
me out.
I like how you mentioned the German,
right.
And I'm,
I'm going to bring this in.
So the,
the,
the Germans and the German workforce,
quite an interesting conversation for,
for several reasons.
But do you know,
do you know about how,
what,
like how they're like,
how they call each other and stuff,
in the German workplace,
Seppi?
Do you know the call each other?
You probably know,
though.
You're German.
you know.
Yeah.
Generally,
they call each other by their surname.
And generally,
do you know,
like in like workplaces,
like you might have these car plants or whatever.
Do you know,
generally,
like it's,
it's not a thing to like,
want to go out with your colleagues.
It's like actually against,
I mean,
Liv might come in and be like,
oh no,
this is not true.
But culturally,
like generally,
this is like the international opinion of like,
like,
you know,
business people who go and visit them.
It's a general talk about thing.
Like when you teach cross culture,
cross,
cross cultural communication,
it's late for me,
by the way,
cross cultural communication,
and specifically cross cultural,
like sensitivity.
Then like these things like to come into play,
like Germans generally in the workforce,
like in the plants and stuff,
the colleagues of the by their second name,
they're not encouraged to go out with one another,
like workmates,
work colleagues are not encouraged to have like a relationship.
Now in the UK,
it's the exact opposite.
I don't know about you,
Sepi.
Like unions and shit or something or what?
Like it just reduces productivity or something.
They just have this very weird.
Yeah.
I think I must be focused on productivity and nothing else like that.
That get your head down.
And you know,
the less you congregate with people,
like the less gossip that's going to go on a Monday morning.
You know what I mean?
Sepi,
if you haven't been out with your work colleagues on the weekend,
there's like no gossip to be hard.
Like you got to get your head down and there's a few of the tricks.
Work gossip tends to,
work gossip tends to favor the negatives about the workplace.
Usually like a vast majority,
I would say probably like 80%,
I would guess,
right.
If you imagine people at companies and work and hospitals and different
things,
like you'll,
you'll notice that like people aren't necessarily gossiping about the
positive aspects of the company.
Most of the time I would think I can be wrong,
but I suspect that's probably true.
Would you like someone calling you,
like a colleague calling you by your second name or not?
I don't think that fits well with me.
That doesn't resonate with me at all.
Interesting.
Sorry.
I don't know.
I want to be called by my nickname.
If you're a good friend,
I want to be called by my nickname.
If like,
you're not a good friend and I want to be called by my normal name,
like Andy,
like,
like,
which is my nickname for me,
real name kind of thing.
If you know me well,
you're going to call me Robo.
You know,
there's just something about history.
You know,
it's like before World War I,
parents actually called the parents and mothers,
sir and ma'am in Germany.
Right.
So this is a cultural thing.
This was a respect issue.
And we even use that kind of pronoun in a formal way.
If we address anyone,
if you get a letter from the government,
there's a different you,
in a formal way,
it's like the,
like in Spanish,
in Latin languages,
you have the same in English.
It's just the same word.
this actually kind of faded out in the last 20 years,
I would say,
different.
Now people call them by the first names usually in the workplace,
but you're kind of invited to do so.
Or they,
the first day they tell you at the workplace,
we call ourselves by the first name,
but there's still some industries where they try to keep it informal because if you greet clients,
that's a no go,
right?
If someone walks into your office,
you want to say Mr.
So-and-so,
So-and-so all the time,
you know,
never call a client by their first name unless they offer you to call them by their first name.
So it's still a thing,
asking for respect to the other person,
right?
yeah,
it's nothing about the work politics or some,
that's just some made up bullshit.
It's just what,
what,
what used to be,
let's say just tradition,
right?
In the past,
no company.
I like that.
The labor laws here are that bad.
If you impose something like that on your workers,
you know,
you get a fucking big loss.
Well,
generally,
generally like,
well,
the way,
the way culture works is culture is an epiphenomenon of genetics.
So the genetic nature of a group of people is what ends up giving you that culture.
It's almost like,
imagine,
I don't know what the best way to look at this.
Like,
so imagine you have like,
the colors of a movie encoded on the,
on the DVD disc,
right?
Like it's,
so you have the different,
code on there that gives you all the different colors that pop up when you,
you know,
shoot it onto a projector.
so like your,
your DNA contains like the blue color and the yellow color and the green color,
whatever.
And then like the mixture of that makes the movie.
And,
so if you think about like the individual sort of colors on your DNA being kind of like
the individual people,
then the final culture is the movie that plays out as a result of the mix,
the genetics and all the different billiard balls bouncing off each other,
all the people doing things in that particular,
sort of like community,
whether it's a country or whatever.
And so if you have like the genetics of the population has a lot to do with like how people
behave.
So I think what I tend to do is just go down to the generality of like,
if you have,
a culture like Japanese culture or you have like German culture,
whatever,
there's a tendency,
like if you were to destroy that culture,
so for example,
blow it to bits in world war II or like whatever,
then,
and if that genetic population is similar,
you tend to notice that they tend to build back a genetically similar or a,
or a culture that's very similar in a lot of the,
especially in the work ethic and some of those elements like,
the attention to detail.
So the,
the both Germans and,
Japanese are both interesting in that,
like it's both high IQ populations.
We're talking about some of the highest IQ populations in the world reside in a couple of these locations that I think the only exception would be Ashkenazi Jews,
which are actually higher than both in terms of like average IQ.
Wait a minute.
I don't know.
High IQ combined with work ethic.
It's not about high IQ that the work ethic of Japanese and Germans are both incredibly insane.
Yeah.
So they have both very high IQ and a very high work ethic too.
So the very industrious groups,
like only a Japanese swords,
like,
you know,
if you look at like the obsessiveness,
which with the,
you know,
a katana is created in,
in Japan,
right?
Like,
you know,
thousands of folds or whatever it is,
like just obscene amounts of like,
ridiculous rabbit hole behavior,
extremely obsessive,
like craftsmanship.
this is the type of thing you see,
like that can be only genetic.
This is the reason why,
like,
you're not going to replicate Taiwan semiconductor in Ethiopia or whatever.
It's just not going to happen.
Like the,
the,
the,
the,
the nature of that,
the particular people has to be fit for that particular type of work.
And,
and I think it's very tough to replicate it outside.
It's not a function of racism or something either.
It's,
or you can call it whatever you want to call it,
but the point is like genetics matters.
And if you don't think it does,
then,
well,
you try to find,
you try to develop a semiconductor,
you know,
a factory in South Africa,
and then you tell me how that goes.
You know what I mean?
Like it's like there,
there is an effect that this is the reason why it's very difficult to represent.
Like back to what we were talking about.
It's very difficult to move like Taiwan semiconductor to the United States,
for example,
now because,
but to say that it's not possible.
Well,
that's why China,
why China can walk in.
That's why China can walk in tomorrow.
If they want to,
like,
I didn't even know what people like people to like,
or China,
Taiwan,
or people,
if they want,
like,
listen,
if it had been feasible on the table,
they would have done it already.
Like literally,
why wouldn't you?
Yeah,
because you can't maintain the supply chains if you invade them.
That's why.
The entirety of the thing would collapse essentially.
Yeah.
So it's a very fragile.
Yeah.
Like very,
very high tech societies,
like what Taiwan has accomplished with Taiwan semiconductor is extremely fragile.
It's not anti-fragile.
Like the smallest,
like perturbment of that system.
And you could have the whole house of cards tumble down because it's so,
so detailed.
Like,
just think about like the superconducting super collider in,
in Switzerland or whatever.
In CERN.
In CERN.
Yeah.
Imagine running the CERN in South Africa with the infrastructure.
It's not going to happen.
Right.
Or imagine running it in Argentina or something.
It's not going to happen.
The amount of like infrastructure and like civilization required to create those
specific things is extremely,
extremely high and very difficult to replicate quickly.
but,
but I don't,
I don't,
I don't know that they did.
I don't know that the China closed down that their only fucking semiconductor plant,
the Samsung one during the COVID thing.
So like,
you know,
the,
the,
they should China shut down their owning fucking semiconductor plant during COVID.
So like,
however long,
like it's,
it's a very,
their semiconductor thing.
Cause obviously another building in Arizona,
I mentioned that one earlier,
the building,
another one as well in America.
Didn't Biden sign like a 20 million fucking,
20 billion dollar bill.
That's the thing that when you can just print money,
you can actually attract people by just getting gigantic salary.
Right.
So there's always ways to subsidize.
so the U S is pretty good at that kind of shit.
Like,
so like,
yeah,
you,
is it a waiting game where,
okay.
There were,
does America,
right.
The state hope to hold off China from invading Taiwan until they get their own plants.
Like syrup.
Is that like the long game?
Is that what we're saying?
Probably.
Yeah,
probably.
I mean,
here's the thing,
like having so much semiconductor focus on Taiwan doesn't help anyone in the world.
Honestly,
that's just way too much.
Like,
it's just too much of a breaking point for,
you know,
all,
all the world's technical systems to fall apart.
If you can't get parts and you can't get,
you know,
supplies.
So it's the current,
wait a minute,
dude,
it's the current,
it's the biggest current attack vector in the entire world right now.
Yeah.
It's literally like the,
if anyone in the room's in doubt,
your entire world functions on these things like people,
like literally people,
you're going to wake up in the morning and have nothing without semiconductors.
Like they are in everything that you do in your fucking life beyond belief.
What you even know people didn't even know.
I was like how relevant and how important the semiconductor topic is.
I've been talking about this for like,
this,
this isn't,
this isn't 30 years ago anymore.
and it didn't matter.
Right.
So dude,
I've been talking about this for 18 months since,
see,
the thing is,
that me originally,
I originally was one of those stupid people that thought China was a threat.
When I really did like me real research and I really found,
and I realized that China is not a global threat.
And the very fact that they spend their entire time taking care of their internal politics,
pretty much while,
you know,
peacocking to the rest of the world.
And I was like,
all right,
okay.
what I've been told by like,
you know,
I'm not going to say MSM,
but even like,
you know,
beyond that,
even black pill,
I wasn't like,
it took me a long time to realize that China's not the threat that we've been led to believe that it is.
And it's a bit of a smoke screen.
And it's,
it's,
it's a thing like every country,
can be a threat.
Like the boogeyman.
Like the boogeyman.
It's more of the economic threat.
I would say,
you know,
it's not so much.
It's a red,
it's a Russia of the 1970s and 80s,
isn't it?
Yeah.
There's a different way to look at it.
Like if you look historically at civilizations,
the boogeyman always comes,
whether you can predict which boogeyman is going to be the biggest one,
that's the hard part,
but it always,
the boogeyman always arrives.
That's why,
that's why you always have to be prepared basically.
But anyway,
Hey Mohawk,
what's going on,
man?
I want to ignore you there,
but no,
all good,
man.
I can definitely,
hop into,
you know,
the perfect timing with,
the China smoke screen.
What's your opinion on China?
Fuck China.
Okay.
China,
China,
China.
Can I touch on the,
the comment about genetics predetermining culture?
Yeah,
go for it.
I mean,
there's,
there's undoubtedly a correlation between,
ethnicity and genetics,
right?
When you have a particular group in a particular area for an extended period of
time,
you definitely have a kind of a uniform evolution of the genetic makeup,
but I mean,
what,
what is causing you to say that it predetermines culture?
Isn't culture something that evolves simultaneously with that?
I mean,
that's to an extent.
Like if you look at like mind viruses and things and like the passive information,
from mind to mind.
And then of course we extended that because of books and like other forms,
forms of knowledge.
So we,
we actually pass on knowledge to each other,
outside of our bodies,
which,
I think we're the only,
you know,
you know,
we're some of the only creatures that do very much of that.
I think there's probably some,
some small examples of,
you know,
creatures that etch things or whatever,
not like who knows,
but the point is like,
yeah,
writing and all of that does play a role,
in like what culture is,
but like at the end of the day,
our biological needs,
our bandwidth in terms of our hearing bandwidth,
our seeing bandwidth and all the other things is all genetically determined.
And therefore our culture is by and large determined by our biology.
because like if,
for example,
I was going to have,
if I had bird DNA,
mostly,
then I would behave like a bird and my culture would look like that of a bird.
I am not a bird because I have the DNA of a human and therefore there's that.
as far as like,
there's definitely environment affects culture.
So for example,
if I take the same hundred people with the same DNA,
or similar DNA or whatever it is from the same group,
and I drop them on an island in the,
in the ocean,
on the ocean,
they might behave,
you know,
based on their,
you know,
inputs from the environment differently than if they were to have the same group,
in a jungle or something.
So your,
your genetic fitness,
plays a role in whether you can survive a certain environment.
We know that that's just simple survival of the fittest.
And it's why like,
you know,
certain organisms don't survive in certain niches.
Like for example,
if I take fish and I drop it on land,
it's not going to survive.
so there's some of that as well,
as far as like,
the,
the way genetics and culture and everything work.
but if you just take a general,
a lot of,
a lot of that assumes a kind of homogeneity of,
of genetics over a really great swath of.
Sure.
But like,
if you keep it,
keep it simple though,
think about this.
If I get a room full of like 30 kids with down syndrome and I were to sort of like say,
okay,
go build me Taiwan semiconductor.
would you think that's rational?
Of course not.
But it's as simple as that.
That's all you have to know.
That's all you have to know.
Like you can dumb it down to just that pretty much.
And,
and I,
I agree with that completely.
For me,
it's,
it's more about the predetermination,
right?
So I'm,
I'm somebody who comes,
I'm,
I'm a first generation American from,
from a German Swiss and Austrian descendant parents,
right?
So we,
most of my relatives are in Southwestern Germany,
Southwest of Freiburg.
the region is,
the dialect of the region is,
is Alemannish,
right?
So Alemannia,
right?
Germany,
a bunch of different nicknames.
one of the,
the things that makes that area unique is it's not strictly Germanic heritage.
There's a lot of Celtic and Gaelic mix in there too,
if you want to go back to tribal societies.
So it's,
it's not really a homogenous makeup,
but it makes up a really significant percentage of the German population for the last couple
of hundred years.
But you have this mixing of many different cultures and including getting all the way
back to the early Roman conquests in that region,
but they still share a lot of the same cultural norms as,
you know,
what you would call the greater Germanic people.
you know that English,
you know that English is not a language bro.
So obviously I'm a professor of linguistics.
So you do know that obviously English is not a fucking language.
English is predominantly made up of five different elements,
which will be Latin root words,
Greek root words,
French,
weird French,
Flemish,
and ancient Germanic.
Dude,
how much of the ancient language comes from ancient Germanic?
It's like,
who we are.
It's like our roots.
It's like,
like,
it's like,
like,
well,
hold on,
but back to,
back to what we're talking about.
So Drew,
like what I'm saying is not to be construed as like too simplistic,
as in like,
if I know a group of people's genetics or where they came from,
that they're,
I know for sure they're going to build a Taj Mahal or some shit.
Like,
that's not what I'm saying.
I'm saying that like,
if you look in the retrospective scope and you say to yourself,
like,
why were certain civilizations built a certain way?
Like,
why is,
has Japanese civilization been so advanced for so long or how long,
you know,
whatever groups,
right?
Like you have to sort of say like over a thousands of years of period,
something has to do with the intellectual prowess of that group.
Otherwise they wouldn't be there.
And on top of that,
it could be other things like how violent a group could potentially be,
or perhaps like how well a group can survive starvation.
So it's like,
for example,
if a meteor strike were to hit us,
right.
And you just had a pocket of civilization left.
Would it be necessarily the Germans that would make it,
or would it be the South Africans that would make it?
It might not be the Germans necessarily.
Right.
So like,
so also I'm not trying to say like,
I'm not trying to make some eugenics claim that like one group is better
than the other or something like that,
because you don't know that for sure.
Cause you don't know the future and we don't know what future niche,
niches the future is going to require in terms of skill sets and physical
prowess or height or shortness or whatever the hell it is.
Like there may be a whole bunch of different reasons why it's not the
people you think that would be the ones that would survive in some
catastrophe.
That would be the ones that actually make it.
Right.
So like,
you know,
like,
but,
but the world as it stands,
like it's made up of like,
you know,
some levels of sort of like genetic homogeneity.
And that has resulted in some of the,
the cultures that you have witnessed.
And then there's the,
the additional thing is like,
let's say the Japanese come up with something cool in their culture or the
Chinese or the Americans or whoever,
like,
is it now possible through the magic of the internet and magic of verbal,
you know,
language and the magic of like photography and whatever else books and
whatever,
like,
is it possible to have a layer of society that is not purely genetics
based?
The answer is sure.
But at the same time,
like,
think about this.
Africa has tons and tons of resources,
like,
like a fuck ton of resources,
gigantic continent.
Yet,
despite having all of that information already set aside for people,
like,
okay,
how to make electricity and how to do nuclear power and how to build
submarines or whatever the fuck else.
That's a complicated one.
Cause there's a greater variety of genetic diversity in it in Africa alone
than there is in the entire rest of the world.
Sure.
But at the end of the day,
like none of all of that,
like gets washed aside.
If like your civilization is not building Wakanda,
right?
Let me give you an example,
Sefi.
I posted something that may be inappropriate.
Dom,
your voice sounds terrible,
by the way.
It's really hard to listen to you on that mic or whatever you got.
I'm in the car.
Yeah.
Just skip it.
Cause like,
no one's going to like hearing that.
Like,
it sounds terrible.
It's really sounds like really noisy,
but anyway,
but,
let me drop something in here.
So I think,
one of the factors that you have to take into account are environmental
conditions.
So if you are in an unfavorable,
scarce environment,
like cold climate or whatever,
right?
where you have harsh conditions and you can actually make your life more
comfortable.
If you know how to use your brain over a thousand years,
it kind of,
activates the,
the proper epigenetics that are already available.
That's exactly my point.
That's exactly my point is that there's,
there's a simultaneous environmental factor that,
that,
sort of evolves the genetics of a particular group.
Right.
Yep.
Yep.
I mean,
and it's,
it's,
it's hard to determine the timeline.
But the thing is like,
we don't control any of that.
Remember this,
you don't control any of it.
So in the sense,
like we don't control the nature of the like environment that we were born
So like,
for example,
I didn't choose my parents.
I also didn't choose where they decided to raise me.
I also didn't choose which like school I got sent to elementary school with
or whatever else.
So like,
while yes,
environment does play a role like at the,
in the aggregate,
like how much choice do most people in the world have about what environment
they live in or don't live in?
And they have almost no choice at all,
relatively speaking.
So like,
well,
I never argue.
So I'm not sure like it matters.
That's true.
That's,
that's like,
that's like the bonobos argument,
right?
You have the scarcity on one side of the river and then you have,
you have another group of bonobos that have,
you know,
every resource imaginable.
And then on the one side,
you have,
have like this,
this warring group that commits atrocities among their group because of that
scarcity.
Right.
And now as a result of it,
there's,
there's a distinct genetic difference between the two groups after,
after several thousand years.
Right.
I mean,
I wouldn't say that the group across the river,
was genetically predisposed to,
to be part of a warring culture.
But I think that those genetics emerged because of the scarcity of resources on their side of the river.
Right.
I mean,
that's,
that's,
I do know this though.
Like if you look at the way AI is going and all of that,
the thing is like,
we are experimenting with new cognition as we speak.
And like most of the sort of like human differences and all the stuff we've like,
you know,
we look at are largely going to be kind of stripped away bare.
And like,
like AI is not going to be particularly PC.
Yeah.
It's kind of fortunate.
And it's going to be extremely brutal in terms of judging you and me for what we are or are not in terms of our capabilities.
It's going to be quite,
I'm completely,
it's going to be quite depressing.
It's going to be way more judgmental than you,
Sophie.
it's going to be,
it's going to be judgmental at a level that is just absolutely epic that like most people are simply not ready for.
Like,
it's that simple.
Sophie,
I've been very patient,
very,
I know,
you know,
I mean,
if we're talking about genetics,
are we going to have the fucking dick size conversation or not?
Because I ain't seen no yellow dick fucking bigger than mine.
And I ain't seen no fucking black dick smaller than mine.
So like,
I mean,
we need to have the dick conversation if we're going to go into the genetic group.
you know what I'm saying though.
I've never seen an Asian dick.
I've never seen an Asian dick bigger than mine.
And I've never seen a black fucking dick smaller than mine.
Like bro,
come on,
help me out here.
Genetics.
Let's talk.
Am I coming in for you now?
Doctor.
Yeah,
you're done.
I just want to highlight an example of like the social factor.
How big's your dick?
How big's your dick before?
Yeah,
listen,
it's,
it's all about the energy.
Okay.
The let's,
what is it?
The motion of the ocean.
You got to be able to ride the motion of the ocean.
It's not about the size of the vessel.
All right.
Now,
that being said,
I think that speaks to,
maybe the,
the possibility that those big ships might sink in the event of a big wave.
you know,
just because you got the big,
the big vessel doesn't mean you're not going to capsize.
If you got the,
you know,
small nimble vessel,
you might be able to,
you know,
ferry your way through.
Well,
that's like,
that's like if bigger was better than you'd still have T-Rex and like
fucking,
pterodactyls flying around.
but instead of we have like crows and like,
you know,
like little birds.
Exactly.
That's my point.
And you know,
I think T-Rex evolved into the chicken.
As far as we know,
I think you guys are undervaluing the,
the importance of,
of dick vein placement.
Well,
I just want to make this one point is that,
you know,
the cultural environment is,
I think what allows,
you know,
it's a,
one of those factors that maximizes the capacity.
Like,
so organizational organizational capacity is something that is like culturally
ingrained.
And maybe that has something to do with the environmental factors that
influence that culture,
you know,
like,
for example,
the Han Chinese and like Northern Europeans,
they,
they live in colder environments.
And typically,
you know,
that led to the need for,
you know,
organizational capacity to be able to plan and,
you know,
structure their society in such a way that would be able to survive the
elements.
And so those,
those environmental factors kind of bred a certain kind of culture that led
to a certain kind of genome.
Like if you were to say,
right,
it's the simple way to look at this is your DNA and my DNA,
on their own.
If we were never to meet,
we don't form a culture together,
but as soon as one person's DNA meets another's and another's and another's,
and then you couple that with the environment that it happens to be in,
whether it's the cold,
whether it's on an Island somewhere,
whether it's in space,
then that is the full sort of context of the culture.
Yes.
Like genetic beings do not like live without specific environments.
In fact,
the entire point of DNA is that environments are different and they change,
which is why adaptability and DNA even exists in the first place.
DNA is the concession that you can't see the future.
It is the proof that the future is unknowable.
If it was,
then for 5 billion years,
life hasn't figured out how to see the future,
which is why we have genetics.
we don't have immortality for this reason.
Immortality is basically death.
It's like basically cancer,
right?
Cancer cells are immortal.
I don't know what's happening.
They have those strange anomalous,
instances where people have these kinds of visions and like,
dreams that literally,
you know,
verbatim predict things,
which does speak to some degree,
a kind of organization,
and predictability.
I don't know about that.
It's probably just mostly luck.
Just when you have like billions of people with so many permutations,
occasionally someone's gonna be right about something.
Right.
So this is just like,
I don't know.
It's like,
it doesn't mean anything to me,
but yeah,
but like,
yeah,
but basically lots of different genetic beings in,
in an area will result in some culture based on some mixture of that
environment in that space.
But my point is like what I was trying to say earlier was like the,
the culture that's required to create certain,
situations like an,
an Apple computer or like a,
or a Taiwan semiconductor has been like the point of debate for a very long,
or for that matter of special forces military,
which,
you know,
you know,
something I deal with a bit,
but like,
basically the,
the idea is like,
okay,
if you're going to create like a group of Navy SEALs or something,
is there something we can do to predict the,
the,
the higher likelihood of a successful SEAL team?
what do you have to do?
Like,
so the U S government spent quite a bit of money trying to figure out,
Hey,
maybe we can give them some tests,
like maybe like,
you know,
written tests and maybe we can give them,
you know,
like,
whatever else.
And so,
but like at the end of the day,
like what,
95% plus of people that are picked for testing and SEALs teams,
don't make it.
The washout rate is very high.
It's either like they can't handle the,
the,
the strain.
They can't handle the physical pressures.
They can't handle the mental pressures.
Most of them can handle the physical pressures because these are all ready
people that are elite military people that are joining.
And these are folks that are coming as volunteers.
Like they're wanting to apply for teams.
They don't want to necessarily,
they're not being drafted for them.
And so they want to be in the thick of it in the most harshest conditions.
And they think it's bad-ass and shit.
And even then 95% of people can't make it.
And the military spent a lot of money and effort over the years trying to figure
out like,
Hey,
wait,
maybe we don't have to test fucking 95,
a hundred,
a hundred people just to find three possible candidates.
Maybe we can find some special testing,
maybe genetics or whatever else.
And,
still has not been a great way to sort that out.
yeah,
it's,
it's been a very like protracted process to try to fix because it's a big
waste of money to do all those training sessions and,
not be able to actually form a team out of it.
Right.
So like people have been thinking about this a lot.
And then like,
even for corporations and stuff,
like if you're forming a new company,
I mean,
imagine if you're like,
you knew for sure you could create a team that could build a company like
Taiwan Semiconductor.
Wouldn't you want to know how to do it or,
you know,
or Apple computer or whatever.
So people have thought about this a lot.
Most companies and cultures succeed,
but some combination of genetics,
half,
half decent environment,
half decent exposure to certain resources.
And then a whole lot of luck.
Like,
you know,
like,
like it's purely like a luck game for the most part.
And,
and,
passion,
passion.
This is important.
Yeah.
But passion comes to you from genetics.
So it's like,
you know,
you have the,
you have a passion of a human because you have a genetics of a human.
Otherwise you have a passion of a bird because you have the genetics of a
bird.
So like how your brain acts is by and large,
a function of like your genetics,
making a brain.
Right.
So like passion is always encompassed in that.
When you say DNA,
it encompasses everything about who you are,
that led to you being able to enter the world and interact with your
environment and learn stuff and,
and behave in certain ways.
Passion is just part of those behaviors.
In my mind.
But like,
yeah,
I think what you're describing is like,
wait,
what makes one passionate for some reason?
That's another problem.
We don't know how to make people passionate about stuff as an automatic.
Like if I go and take you to a dozen art galleries,
is there any guarantee you're going to become a painter?
Like sparking the so-called passion or the obsessions is not really clear how to
do that either,
by the way.
And that's another military like,
and,
like training issue as well.
So like that's,
that matters because like,
think about like when you,
enlist for the military and a bunch of enlistees come in,
you're like,
Hey,
I need to figure out how to like assign these different guys to different
posts and things.
Maybe if there's a special test that can tell me,
and,
there are,
by the way,
tests that can help,
like encourage success.
But do you know for sure that like,
you're going to find the most passionate jet fighter pilot or whatever you're
going to find,
you know,
top gun maverick or whatever,
or are you,
are you sure that like,
you're going to be able to discover or spark that passion in a new recruit?
for sure.
You don't know either of those things.
Isn't that an aptitude test?
Isn't that what they call an aptitude test?
Yeah.
Yeah.
There are psych,
psychologic aptitude tests.
And there's like just IQ aptitude tests.
There's like,
manual physical aptitude tests.
But even if you do all that,
like let's just say,
let's assume someone was born with the genetics to have the aptitude to play the piano really well.
And for some reason,
this person just didn't like the sound of the piano.
Like,
what the fuck are you going to do?
Right?
Like,
so this is the thing,
like there's a mixture,
not so much of this is not predictable,
which is why like,
racism is silly,
for example,
like it makes no sense to think that you're just some superior race.
Or just superior,
like whatever,
because the reality is you have no fucking clue what you're going to be challenged with in the future.
And whether you're going to be able to meet that challenge,
you have no idea.
Right?
It could be a challenge you can't meet.
Like,
for example,
if you were to tell me,
something crazy,
like if you don't memorize a thousand numbers in order and cite them out,
I'm going to kill your family.
Guess what?
My family's going to die.
There's,
I can barely remember fucking 10 digits of a phone number for any long,
like the period of time,
like for,
for most,
like if you were to tell me,
like some people are really great.
Like for example,
at names,
for example,
and some people are really great with memorization.
Some people are really great.
I get where you come from.
It's quite,
it's quite interesting.
You mentioned,
you mentioned the fighter pilot example,
because there is a next evolutionary step from that,
which is like a space pilot.
So like the aptitude to the physical aptitude test actually does become quite like important in the example that you give.
Like,
yeah,
of course.
Yeah.
Yeah.
there's definitely physical aptitude.
So that's why like you have to be able to meet certain training requirements before they'll even let you into some of these things.
Right.
So your vision has to be at a certain level,
your,
your reaction times and a few other things.
Right.
They do test certain things to,
to allow you to get in.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah.
And that were two tests.
I mean,
is that,
is that like a kind of higher level,
like thinking test?
Is it like a manual dexterity kind of like,
yeah.
And there are people with the passion to fly that would not necessarily make great fighter pilots.
Like it's not even all pilots that can make great fighter pilots.
And that's another tricky,
best tricky thing.
So like,
yeah,
passion and all this stuff is very hard to like decide like how to stimulate it,
how to detect who is going to be passionate,
all those kinds of things.
But this is why the bell curve type of situation matters.
Like if you have a civilization like Taiwan or you have a civilization like Germany or whatever,
and the aggregate population has a relatively higher IQ,
the aggregate population is relatively more obsessive than not.
The average population tends to not mind long work hours and,
and they consider that fulfilling,
right?
Those features in that group are going to result in a different type of productivity
than if you just have like,
you know,
the Island Boys or whatever,
like,
you know,
singing songs and whatever.
And like,
they can't be bothered to do anything,
but like maybe gather some food and eat for the day.
So yeah,
the nature of...
Have you heard of selection before?
Have you heard of selection before?
So...
What type of...
Selection.
Selection is the process for like,
becoming like a member of the SAS,
their special...
Yeah, yeah.
...of the US.
So in the UK,
I mean,
across the world,
the SAS is regarded as being like the number one.
Like,
I know you Americans might want to talk about your Green Berets and this and that,
but like the Green Berets will say,
they're the SAS are the number one.
Like,
there's no question about it.
But,
dude,
you would be very,
very surprised about the people that actually get onto these,
like,
like,
they might have 2,000 people at the start of selection,
and they'll like,
whittle it down to as little as like two or three.
They've like,
literally in one year,
but normally round about 20.
And then after like,
the extended like training,
like Belize and places like that,
and the Belize jungles,
they do,
they'll get them down to like,
maybe like four or five,
like selection.
So long we just die.
dude,
dude,
that's the other part too.
None of die,
you're right,
during selection,
every year,
people die on the Brecon Hills in Wales.
It's like people from,
like I say,
I've mentioned the Green Berets,
the Navy Seals,
others go to Wales to go on the Brecon Hills and to go through this.
Let me tell you,
sir.
for one,
trained with the great Bear Grylls.
I don't know if you're familiar with Bear Grylls,
but I learned very much from that gentleman.
Dude,
the only reason I wouldn't be familiar with,
sorry,
we're done in school with intelligence.
We had the,
the only reason I wouldn't be familiar with Bear Grylls if I didn't have a TV.
I'm talking about Bear Grylls.
Don,
your voice is gone,
man.
It's robot voice again.
So anyway,
but like,
I mean,
Bear Grylls,
I mean,
if you,
you haven't got a TV,
if you do not Bear Grylls,
I mean,
what's he talking about?
Like,
I get Bear Grylls.
if you study with him.
Here's the thing,
like,
if you're not a,
the way I think about all of this is simple.
Like,
if you're not a geneticist and you're not curing genetic diseases or using this information for anything useful,
the,
the really,
the only thing that you can use this information for generally is figuring out like,
what are going to be your prejudices ultimately?
Right?
Like,
how are you going to decide to use this information?
And the reality is that everyone,
whether they like say it out loud or not,
it has their prejudices as far as like how they're going to use like data about civilizations and how people behave and everything else.
And the,
I think the,
the,
the reason to learn all of this in a certain way and to understand that like,
you know,
if there was a genetically perfect version of anything on this planet,
we would just simply have millions and millions of that and nothing else.
Right?
And if you notice like genetic diversity and genetic adaptability are super important for like general survival.
And the reason is because the world does not know what the future looks like.
Nature does not know what the future looks like exactly.
There's going to be like,
you know,
the sun's going to get hotter for a while and the earth's going to get colder.
For a while and whatever else.
And if everything was homogenous,
then everything dies.
The entire nature of how life works is,
is this biodiversity.
And,
so like this is,
this allows you then to say,
okay,
well,
in like a group of people,
like maybe my ability to record memorize,
you know,
15 numbers in order to save my life is not that good.
But at the same time,
like those are my weaknesses.
Don't put me in a position where I have to memorize 20 digits in a row.
you know,
that,
that guy over there is better at that than me.
And so like the thing to sort of like get good at is realizing what you're not good at.
And then identifying like what other people are actually good at,
and like finding the,
the,
the spot for that person where they can do something useful in your either organization or team or like life or whatever it is.
But like there's generally most people have some sort of redeeming quality.
There are some people that have almost no redeeming qualities.
There are those people out there,
but most people have some.
That's,
that's applicable.
That's applicable to what I've been saying about crypto for how long now?
So I've been saying in crypto for two years,
like I'm not the greatest like TA guy,
right?
But I've got the intelligence to follow the people that are the great like TA guys.
So like,
therefore why should I put my fucking daily energy into something that I'm probably never going to be great at when I can just like literally turn to the people I know who are fucking great at it and like listen and follow their advice and like I might be great on fundamental analysis.
I might be great.
You know what I mean?
I've got other talents and other like,
but I'm not great on standard TA.
So why should I waste my time?
I shouldn't.
I should just like literally put me faith in the people I know that are really fucking good at it and like put my energy into something else.
And this is just like evolution of like how fucking we are as people.
Like I'm not kidding you.
I will live well.
It's just like we tend to specialize.
So therefore like.
Exactly.
You can find useful.
I would use anyone.
I would use anyone and anyone's talents to help me like proceed in my life and get better.
And like,
like I'll take knowledge and I'll take whatever.
Dude,
I am not fussy.
Like I will literally like.
I would rather someone play me music than me play on a piano,
which I'm not as good at.
Right.
Like,
like,
like I don't have any problems with that.
I'm a genetic inferior when it comes to music.
And that's just how my life is going to live.
I'm going to,
but like to,
to like fantasize that I'm going to be as good as music as some Mozart or something.
There's a zero chance in this universe that's going to happen.
It doesn't matter how much passion I have.
Like it's just not going to happen.
So I think you start realizing,
wait a minute,
like where your place in the universe is to some extent.
And then you say,
well,
okay.
Yeah.
Where do you deploy your energy?
That's exactly what your energy.
Yeah,
exactly.
Like,
it'd be like if a bird decides to live under the ocean,
it just doesn't make any sense.
But when it comes to cognitive activities,
human beings get very depressed about being told that they're not good at
something.
But when it comes to like a common sense stuff,
like,
well,
you know,
a fish can't live on the land,
you know,
it'll probably die.
Then people all agree.
Okay.
Everyone nods their head and agrees.
It's very funny about genetics like that.
People get talked about like screams of racism until you just dumb it down to
something simple.
You're like,
oh yeah,
fish is going to die if you put it out of the ocean.
And so,
but yeah,
like when it comes to cognitive behavioral sort of traits about human beings,
if you have any conversation about these things in a public space,
everyone gets upset or somebody gets upset about some shit or takes it
personally.
It's just how human beings are.
It's a very difficult thing to actually,
and also,
it also depends on how comfortable that person is within their like particular,
like frame of life.
Like,
so quick example,
you are living in your own house in your own home country at the minute.
Your kids are off to college.
You've got,
you've got a cushy life,
right?
like I'm living in a foreign country.
I'm never going to have that level of security.
Like I'm always like beholden to like the Thai government,
me employers.
Like I'm always under lock and key in regards to like behaving myself,
like,
like being able to like live me,
like even though I can live my life and I have got a free life.
I don't have that same like mindset as you.
Right.
And that's very important.
Yeah.
You know what I mean?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Like you're a lot more comfortable regardless of wealth.
It's quite likely.
You're a lot more comfortable.
It's quite likely.
There's a lot of environments that I would not thrive in.
Yeah,
but wealth,
wealth doesn't,
wealth doesn't,
it's not all about wealth.
It's about the security,
the social support,
the network.
Like I have zero network,
zero social support,
zero governmental stuff,
like nothing.
It's me.
And that's it.
That's it.
Like I'm obviously a pain divorce.
That's another story,
but like,
it's me and I've got mouths to feed.
Right.
Like I've got two dogs to like look after.
Like that's it.
Bang.
I'm on the edge every day.
Like,
you know,
let's be fair.
The Thai government could kick me out tomorrow.
Like that can't happen to many other people.
So like it's horses for courses.
But like that edge we've all got to keep.
Do you get charged for ring prices?
Is that something that actually happens?
Or is it generally pretty fair?
Med-eye.
Med-eye.
Pom,
Pom,
Pom,
Pom,
Pom,
Pasatai.
So like,
Med-eye.
Pom,
Pom,
Cha-cha-yai.
Or peg my,
Dude,
I mean,
I don't go down that route.
All I'm saying is,
like,
I'm very aware every single day.
This is why I've been gone mad about the 2FA.
People are getting hacked on 2FA with their mobile number.
What are you playing at?
I've had to learn security by default.
I can't have anything connected to a mobile number living in a foreign country.
I'll be fucking stupid.
Like,
everything's on an app.
It's backed up.
All the codes are backed up.
I can jump on a plane to fucking El Salvador tomorrow and I'm Gucci with everything.
But like,
I need to understand that like,
I might have to be on a plane to fucking El Salvador tomorrow.
I mean,
Thailand's had more coups than anywhere else in the world in history.
It's always on a knife edge politically.
Like,
I'd be stupid to even think like that.
So like,
I like what Sefi's saying,
but also there's a double-edged sword where like,
if you're someone like me,
you know,
you have to also be very aware that like,
okay,
things can change like on a daily,
very,
very fucking quickly.
Quick,
quick non sequitur.
well,
maybe not.
To Rack's point about being garbage at technical analysis.
Sefi,
where are you drawing your,
your FIB extensions from?
Unlike Chainlink and Injective.
So there's a simple way,
simple way to kind of theorize this stuff.
so like,
I think what you're asking is how,
how are you picking a swing high and a swing low?
Like,
how do you even bother?
Yeah.
I mean,
like,
like you have,
you have preset FIB extensions from,
from the last cycle at like 51 for Chainlink.
Right.
But,
but how do you get up to a 140?
Like,
I can't figure out how,
how you're drawing it.
So the,
so there's two ways to do these on long timeframes.
Let's use,
let's use Bitcoin as an example.
Cause I think everyone probably has a reference point in their head for the history of Bitcoin a little bit compared to everything else.
So let's just use that for reference.
So the bottom of the,
the sort of like,
you know,
bear market for BTC,
you could argue was something like 3k,
you know,
back in like,
what was it?
18 or 19 or something like that or whatever it was.
And then,
the top was sort of like at whatever,
let's say 70k just for reference.
So 3k to 70k.
so today is 2023.
that price history is basically fact at this point,
right?
You're,
you're,
there's no debate about where the bottom was and,
you know,
where the top went.
Now you don't know with absolute 100% certainty that BTC couldn't go to 3k again,
but the probability is much,
much lower,
right?
Yeah.
So you're following me so far.
Absolutely.
so you have a pretty good sense by historical measure where the bottom was and where the top was.
And if you just simply draw an extension from that to that,
what does that do?
Is it creates a series of like,
levels that suggest in a volatile market where.
It's are likely to go and where extensions are likely to go.
Right.
And,
okay.
So then you say to yourself,
okay,
well is the most recent dip to 15 K or whatever that was.
Is that like,
you know,
are we sure that's the low for the bear market or not?
if you feel like,
okay,
I want to use that.
You could,
if you feel like you're pretty sure that's the low,
but I would say like,
you don't know that for sure.
Sure.
so the prior history of going back further history is more certain,
than like trying to be certain that's 15 K is the bottom.
Does that make sense now?
Like,
like,
yeah,
because the more time goes by,
the more fixed in like stone that,
that history becomes.
So like,
if you use that for BTC,
then your next extensions,
like,
so to the bottom,
you draw at three K or 3,500,
whatever it was.
And then you,
you send it up to like,
you know,
70 K the next extension ends up being like 150 K.
Right.
Now,
if you draw it differently,
if you say,
okay,
I'm going to use the top for the beginning of the extension,
the swing high,
which is like 70 K and,
and then 15 K is the bottom,
because I feel like that's probably the bottom.
I think a lot of traders feel like that's a sufficient and back,
backward history enough to be like,
sure,
that I'm going to use that.
That creates a slightly different set of numbers with,
I think the next extension over the all time high is like a hundred K.
You see how different that is though?
Like,
so then you could say yourself,
another way you could look at it is some traders are going to use the method.
I first mentioned and other traders are going to use the mention that when I
mentioned second.
Right.
So then you could say,
maybe the thing to do is if you're trying to sort out your sort of like targets,
maybe the answer is you do both and maybe you sell some at a hundred K and
then you sell the rest at 150 K if it gets there.
So that's another,
so what do you,
so what do you do for a,
for newer projects?
So newer projects,
you don't have much price history.
Say for example,
Zephyr,
all you know is the bottom was about buck 80 or something like that.
And you know that the local top was a 52.
How do you know that?
Because we did it like a,
that's like a 50 X or something,
25 X or whatever it was.
Right.
So you had this gigantic impulse move and then you had a big pullback and not only
that,
but this pullback made,
went more than 50% below the previous high.
So you're pretty sure this is a deep enough pullback.
What you don't know is how low the price is going to go.
It's like right now it's like 18 bucks or 17 bucks or whatever.
Right.
You don't know for sure where the future is going to take you.
So there's almost no point in drawing another,
drawing anything else,
but the first fib lines that I did when you would do,
when you might redraw it again is only if the,
like you beat prior high and do another impulsive move upwards,
then you can go in the retrospect,
like you can go in the rear view mirror and say,
okay,
the 17 K dip,
like $17 dip.
That was definitely the dip.
That was the bottom.
Right.
And then you could draw a new set of lines,
but you really can't do that.
Like for what a while,
like you might have to wait like a year for this to be definitive.
That's,
that's the part that's,
that's worrying me about,
about it a little bit.
Right.
So if I'm looking at the injective chart,
I mean,
there are a couple pullbacks in there,
including the most recent one.
We went up to what,
like 76 or sorry,
not 76 to,
to 44 and then back down to 38.
I mean,
now there is like a magnetic of,
yeah.
So with injective,
like if you say,
what is the theoretical buyer of the top of the,
the,
the breakout going to think.
So I did exactly that.
Right.
I bought an injective at 25 and I'm like,
what am I going to do with this bag?
And there's extensions at like 50 bucks.
And there's another one at like 90 or something like that.
Right.
So if I,
if I kind of think about it that way and I go,
wait a minute,
like,
do I want to sell at 50 or do I want to sell at 90?
How much gas is in the tank on this little sucker?
It really depends.
If the market is generally doing well,
let's say like other chains start to pop off and like Bitcoin starts to head
towards all time high that then you should revise to the upper targets on the
extensions,
maybe go two or three extensions up and go and just wait for the moon.
Right.
If the general market's not doing that great.
Or if you're like,
you know what?
A 10 X,
two X is good for me.
Screw it.
I'm out.
Like an argument can be made that like,
if you just successively make two X's over and over and over again,
you're going to do really,
really well.
And you don't even need the five X's and the 10 X's.
You don't even give a shit.
So you could make an argument.
The doubling,
the dulling money theory.
Yeah.
You just double over and over again.
I mean,
it's a lot easier to double something over and over again than it is to three X or five
X it again and again.
Right.
So that might be a way to think about it.
Well,
to be honest with you,
I've had pretty shit luck swing trading this time around here.
I think I'm in like a 20% deficit,
which is God awful.
But,
I'm thinking maybe just,
just holding,
drawing some,
some FIB extensions and then maybe selling half,
when I get to certain levels on,
on certain projects.
And then I was also kind of,
the other thing you could do is true.
Like if you have like about a dozen different,
different coins you're following.
And this is the reason to have more than a few coins to follow is that you can then say,
wait,
Hey,
look,
I made a two X on injective over here.
Maybe I can eat a three X out of this,
but Hey,
wait a minute.
Zephyr is down like in the nether world.
And it like,
you know,
you know,
the odds of further downside are starting to get mitigated because you're getting already
down low.
Right.
And you could say,
well,
I'm just going to rotate into something that's,
you know,
like that's,
you know,
has had a deep pullback instead.
Right.
So that you,
you can make that argument because think about this,
like a 10 X from the current Zeph price of 17 bucks is only seven,
170 now.
Right.
So like,
that's how everyone's thinking.
They're like,
wait a minute,
can I get a 10 X on this thing or not?
And it's,
it's a lot easier.
I think you cut out for a second there.
He's on duty.
phone call.
Jesus Christ.
Like right,
right at the pinnacle of the answer to.
Sorry.
I got disconnected for a second there because of phone call,
but I missed what you guys said.
we just,
we figured you had a phone.
sorry.
but anyway,
yeah,
but Drew,
you see what I'm getting at?
Like,
I think it's just all you have to do is use the extensions,
go wait,
there's the moon level.
And do I really care about this project enough to hold to that level?
Or is it like,
Hey,
I got a two X or three X or whatever the hell it is.
And you're like,
wait a minute,
but there's like these opportunities over here.
Maybe I want to like,
cause like next month or whatever it is,
right.
We'll be a very different moment than today.
And you'll have different ideas at that moment.
And the,
so there's always a chance to just pivot at that point and decide to do
something else.
If you really want to play.
yeah,
I'm just,
I'm having a little bit of a hard time trusting my ideas at the
moment.
Yeah.
Yeah.
That's always the thing.
Yeah.
Well,
everyone has a hard time knowing for sure.
Like,
I mean,
who knows for sure,
really like where the bottom or whatever is or where the top is.
You don't know for certain the fibs and everything are just like a
guidepost to a large extent and make sure that you don't under imagine
where things will go.
Like when I drew out the fibs for BTC from the previous season,
like I knew that there would be resistance at 37 and a half,
37,500 or whatever that number was.
I think 37,
eight or whatever.
And I knew it was going to sit there and it exactly did that.
And I knew it was going to do it at the next.
So like the levels do help you sort of plan out and you go,
wait a minute,
like where,
if I bought BTC,
like where am I going to sell it?
So what I did,
a good example here is like,
I bought Bitcoin at like sub 18 K this last round.
And my thesis was like,
the closer it gets to the price to mine it,
the more I'll buy of it,
which is exactly what I did.
And then I like sold it at like,
I think 27.
Why did I sell it at 27?
because like at that point it had done a pretty good run up.
I had,
you know,
practically like two X,
you know,
on my whatever,
you know,
or like maybe 1.8 X on my Bitcoin.
And at that point it's like,
well,
what can I do with this money?
And at that point,
like chain link hadn't broken out yet.
And some of these other things hadn't broken out yet.
I'm like,
you know what?
I'm just going to go back and like grab some alts because like the upside's higher
and chain link hadn't even moved yet.
It's like,
it was like $7 or some shit.
It just like doing nothing.
Right.
So that I picked it up at seven.
So now it's at what?
So I did better off basically by rotating in that example.
if chain link now like goes to 32,
I'll have done even better off.
And,
I might as well just keep holding at this point.
but then there's also like,
you know,
how much did you really gain if you talk about like capital gains taxes and stuff?
Right.
So like,
so this is the reason why I like chain link to me,
the thesis was seven to 21 was a rational thesis.
Cause if it three X that made the trade worth it.
If it didn't,
then it like,
it would have been a wash essentially or,
or close to a wash.
Right.
So it depends on what you're trying to do.
But my thesis is generally that all it's typically are going to outperform BTC,
you know,
off their bottoms,
which is generally almost always true.
Right.
Like assuming you bought the bottom,
or you scaled into the bottom,
you can definitely win that way.
so that's kind of how I did that particular move,
but I had a sense of the target,
you know,
where BTC would go and approximately where it would stop and,
you know,
that kind of thing.
Right.
So anyway,
it's the,
the,
the fibs and all that are just a way to just like help your imagination more than
anything.
Where do you,
where do you see fetch topping out?
Fetch.
so it's hot.
Like it's prior highs of buck 20.
what is it today?
Like 70 something.
And,
there are no fib levels left until prior high.
So I have no reason.
There's no reason to sort of mess with it.
And I bought it at like 37 or something,
maybe whatever it is.
So it's like at a two X or something right now.
So what I'm doing with it is just basically holding it.
And my intention there is that if it hits prior high,
the odds of it extending past that are very,
very good.
And it's close enough to prior high with no substantial resistance that I think
it'll just keep climbing just very slowly.
The AI narrative sort of like spilled off a little bit.
And so that probably slowed it down some,
but in a bullish market,
you know,
nobody cares that they see that all time high.
And they're like,
you know,
let's get it right.
They just wait.
and then like,
so what,
where do you go past the buck 20?
I think the next level is like four 80 or something like that.
So that's a five X from there.
And then like from my original buy at like,
you know,
let's say 50 cents that would represent something like a,
you know,
you know,
10 X,
right.
so theoretically,
right.
If it's,
if it's got like a five to 10 X and so does chain link,
why wouldn't you just consolidate all of that right now into,
into link after,
after the recent gain?
Right.
the reason I'm,
I haven't done that is because FET's charts more bullish than chain links
is in that,
like the hard resistance is that last one before prior high.
So they're slightly different risk sort of risk assessments essentially.
And I think,
so you,
so you think the timing is that it's going to peak like significantly earlier
than chain link.
And then you'll be able to catch the last leg of link after it's,
yeah,
I might be able to catch the last leg of link.
or like,
well,
first off if Fetch makes it to the next extension,
remember after breaking high,
most of these coins will go to extensions above,
not one that puts Fetch at like $10,
which is obscene,
but like it's,
that's a more,
much more substantial sort of overall sort of movement.
Right.
So 10 would be like impressive.
but if it gets to five to 10 range,
that's a pretty good spot.
And I figured that's,
that was my goal for Fetch was like right in that range.
I might sell it.
but yeah,
like,
am I going to be better off doing that or like cycling the chain link?
I don't know.
Like,
I have no idea.
Like it's more of a,
a gamble on the chart and keeping these two things separated just in case one doesn't play out the way you think it is may also be a good reason to stay in both.
Right.
Cause like if chain link can make it to one 40 or something like that and Fetch can make it to 10,
does it really matter if you caught the exact one?
Right.
Like you're,
you're at such high multiples,
who cares?
so there's a little bit of that thought in my head too.
yeah,
so I don't know.
I tend to get like be in a,
a variety of things just so that if one moon's way faster than the other,
then I can cycle into the other one.
and I'm paying attention.
The thing is if you're don't have bags in different places,
the problem is you're not paying attention to like enough price action and you don't get a bird's eye view of what's going on.
I think.
And I like to have that kind of view,
but you can also file it on another chapter of fumbling the bag,
right?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Another chapter of fumbling the bag.
Yeah.
Like it's,
it's also possible drew to like have something with high conviction,
not move very much for some reason.
Right.
Like,
like chain link is the one like,
technologically doing a lot of the most shit yet.
Like injective is no more than a meme coin at this point.
And it's pumping like crazy.
So what the hell does that mean?
Exactly.
Like,
you know,
like,
so being right about the fundamentals in crypto does not make you write about the price action automatically.
And that's,
that's a fun,
fun aspect of it.
Like I literally bought soul at like a hundred.
Right.
Whereas like,
you know,
I could have bought it at 15 or whatever too.
Right.
So why did I do that?
Is because like,
it essentially has confirmation at this point.
There's only one FIV left on its history chart back to all time high.
I'm like,
fuck it.
It's,
I buy it a hundred.
It'll probably go back to all time high.
And I've made like a one and a half X on it.
And it's a low risk.
I didn't buy very much.
Like,
I'm not buying like mega wads of like stuff at the top or whatever,
you know,
but the point is like,
you know,
it's,
it's probably going to get back to our prior high.
That's my thesis.
And it's like,
why not just write it?
So that's not a very high,
I didn't put a lot of money into it.
I just put a little bit.
so yeah,
a few of these things like,
and same thing with injective.
I bought the breakout,
but I didn't buy very much of it.
I bought like a little bag with the intent that,
well,
if it,
if it three X's or whatever,
fine,
I'll throw that into Zephyr.
That's kind of like my,
my intention is to buy a little bit and then like use it for other stuff that I want.
cause I know Zephyr is high volatility,
right?
So the thing is like,
it can drop a lot.
And therefore,
like if I buy something that has already three X'd and then put it into that,
I'm going to feel a bit more comfortable because then like I can lose like six,
70% of the value in the thing and still be sitting comfortable.
at a break even if I,
if you know,
while I'm waiting.
the,
you know,
it's just how you,
how you have to think about the volatility and what you're going to do.
So I'll,
I'll basically do a few random bags that I'm gambling on that if they go up,
then I'll use that to then invest in something else.
That's high risk,
high volatility,
low market cap and just play.
cause that's kind of funny that way.
It's like,
you don't have to have very much of something that a thousand X's right.
Like,
and you're done really,
really well.
you don't have to have,
like your life savings and the thing at that point,
you do really well with just a modest amount of money.
Right.
So that's exposure to some of those things is,
is worthy,
I think.
and,
and then like,
you know,
running up a few of the,
and some people do this sort of thing on leverage shit too.
Like they'll just go to like a chain link or whatever,
and then they'll go out and take like leverage.
But the problem is,
is that like,
I don't know,
the number of times you're going to get quasi liquidated and whatnot is just too
great.
And now you're just wasting money and time,
like getting liquidated over and over again.
And,
I don't know,
like,
you know,
traders will say like,
okay,
if I can win,
like,
you know,
55% of the time,
I'm going to,
you know,
come out ahead.
But like,
but is that 5% win worth your time?
I don't know about that.
That's maybe,
I'd rather just sit around spaces and fuck around and watch that,
watch like,
you know,
like put a million trades in and watch them all day.
That's not nearly as fun to me.
I just like to just vibe with it instead of like have to,
so yeah,
you're,
you're,
you're,
you're,
you're,
what you find fun matters too.
Like if you are entertained and you're having a good time,
then,
you know,
you'll,
you'll be able to like chill and do the thing.
But if you're always having to obsess about it,
then it's,
it's,
it's makes it harder.
So I don't know.
But,
Drew,
what are you doing?
Your injective,
like,
or whatever you,
or fat,
like,
where are you letting it ride to?
I mean,
originally I was going to let it go to,
what's the number?
right?
I heard you on an earlier space spaces.
And I was thinking that was maybe the fifth extension then rotated into
link.
but I don't know,
probably spending a little too much time on Twitter.
And,
you've got guys like crypto wizard who are shilling it like crazy to be like
the B and B of this cycle.
you know,
there's that psychological element.
It's which one.
which one,
crypto wizard.
What was he,
you'd be talking about,
that injective is going to do that.
You mean,
or which one?
Yeah.
Yeah.
He's,
he's been touting it.
Like it's like,
it's going to be like the B and B chain of this cycle and,
you know,
end up,
end up top 10,
top five.
Yeah.
I think it's quite feasible.
What,
what price is,
what price does injective have to be to get to like that 30 billion market cap
level now?
What are we,
what are we at now?
Let me see.
like how far,
what price would that be at injective?
okay.
So injective currently is at 3.4 billion market cap.
So that's a 10 X from here.
So that would be like $400 injective.
You're going to ride that wave or what?
Like,
what are you doing?
Like,
geez.
Nah,
man,
I don't,
I don't know about that,
but I mean,
I picked it up at 25 and I,
I figured if it has that kind of upside,
then the odds of me getting a three or four X are pretty good.
Right.
That's the thing.
The hype wave is so unpredictable,
right?
I mean,
I mean,
in six months people could be,
you know,
talking about injective,
like,
you know,
this was supposed to be the next big thing and it stalled out in,
in February,
you know,
I mean,
yeah,
you,
where,
where you get buyer exhaustion,
who really knows,
right?
You're,
you're a hundred percent correct on that.
I mean,
how much stuff is there to do on injective?
A little bit of stuff.
So like put it this way.
so far as ecosystem goes,
Kujira blows away injective.
Like it's just,
it's just much better already,
like by orders of magnitude better.
And it's only a 500 mil market cap.
So that's another argument one could make is like,
Hey,
you know what?
Ride the,
injective for a little three X.
And if Kujira hasn't moved yet,
just dump some in there and be done with it.
Right.
Because like the,
the quality stuff usually picks up a bit over time.
What's the TVL on Kujira right now?
Ooh,
I don't know.
not a hundred percent sure.
Let's take a look at that.
And by the way,
I'm not claiming it's like a great price now or anything.
I don't really like,
it's already,
it's already made its pump.
I don't know how much it's going to retrace and all that shit too.
but,
TVL is like,
yeah,
a hundred mil and the chain,
the coin price is five 50.
So yeah,
there you go.
But they're,
they're doing a little bit of a handshake with injective too.
They want to do some collaborative shit and all that stuff too.
So who knows?
Who knows?
Yeah.
Like where,
where all these things go stuff with the best fundamentals or best like user interface
doesn't always get the most traction.
Again,
it's whoever can paint the chart.
Like if the chart looks really good,
repeatedly,
then people tend to pile in.
Yeah,
exactly.
Right.
So like what is fetch talking about?
Yeah.
It's fetch does fuck all basically.
I mean,
like this,
let's be fair.
Like we're,
we're in it just because the chart looks good.
That's it.
Yeah,
man.
Well,
Hey,
I appreciate it.
Sorry if I'm bugging anyone with my,
amateurish questions,
but I think they're,
they're good questions.
They're good.
They're good talking points.
Yeah.
A lot of people have the same questions anyway.
Yeah.
Everyone's having fun.
More like me on repeat.
you know,
yeah,
that's,
that's it for me.
I'm out.
It's time.
it's good.
Like,
it's good to be able to explain your,
like one is what,
what are my questions?
And then like,
it's good to be able to explain whatever your theoretical thesis is going to be
ultimately.
And does it make sense to you?
And does it make sense to other people?
And that's a good way to bounce it off.
You know,
I do it all the time.
I do it all the time.
Like,
like,
you know,
someone will say,
you should have bought this.
And I'm like,
really,
is it too late?
And I'm like,
and they're like,
And then I was like,
all right,
fine.
I'll get some.
That's,
that's somehow my,
that's the end of it.
Like I just sort of sometimes just ape into something because I couldn't be
bothered to sort it out,
the details.
And then I'll,
then I'll chart it,
look at it and go,
wait a minute.
Like,
do I want to buy a little bit?
Do I want to buy a lot?
What?
That kind of thing.
Hey,
George,
what's up?
We're trying to say something.
I couldn't tell.
Hmm.
Anyway,
but yeah,
while we were talking today,
like nothing really happened today.
Like,
I think everything just sort of dipped a little bit and that's about it.
So yeah,
even though like chain link was at 1580 at resistance again and whatever else,
like no,
no breakout or anything.
So I don't know.
I guess it's possible.
Like everything dumps too.
We should always be concerned about that.
So I don't like leverage stuff.
I'm okay with waiting a few more months for everything to come back up,
but it's frustrating having to deal with like liquidations or whatever.
Bullshit.
I don't know if George is aware or what.
Happy you still there or what?
I think everyone's just roaming around.
Let's see here.
What other things are happening today?
Let's just kind of look at the little let's see here.
Yeah.
Like quite a few things kind of dipped away from their trajectories here.
Akash is still doing good.
It's a two 56 suddenly climbing injective with a little pullback.
Astro port is steadily climbing.
It's like 25 cents.
A little bit of that.
Luna went to like a buck and then came back to like 95 cents.
That's just still at 72 cents.
So pretty much sideways.
It seems like not a lot of people are like doing a lot of Christmas crypto
buying or whatever.
Let's see what happened to BTC 43 K no change.
Neutron made it to a buck 20.
I think Neutron's kind of a decent buy if you can get it again at like close to 80 cents
or something like that.
Probably a good place.
Yeah.
It's like a buck 20 right now.
Anything else?
Let's see.
Yeah.
Kajira's at 447.
I think it probably needs to hang around here for maybe another month, maybe,
in order to get enough like volume consolidation for this level.
Anytime something pumps a lot, like does a 5X or something like that,
you should expect a lot of like dipping and sideways action for a while,
for months at a time.
Zephyr is the same boat right now.
Zephyr is like at 18 bucks.
And it's pulled back about almost 70% from the top, which is a really good entry area
if people haven't gotten any.
Now, bear in mind, and then at the bottom, and then at the bottom, and then at the top
was like at 52 bucks.
And volume is about 10 times as much as it was back when it was at those lower prices.
So, it's materializing some new areas here, and it's got a big, like there's a lot of gap fill of volume in the like $9 to $20 range.
So, somewhere in this range is a good place to pick some up.
I added some today at about $18.20.
But then I got, I got some at $27.20, I got some at like $25, $20, and now at $18.20.
And I was hoping, like some other shit I have with moon, and I could like, hopefully the timing works out just perfect,
whereas this is, this is at a dip, and that's, you know, other stuff is high,
and then I can maybe like double my position now of, of it, but we'll see how that goes.
Anyway, any other comments from anybody?
If anyone wants to hop up, chat, ask questions about their coins and their charts or whatever,
it'd be kind of fun.
Sometimes it's cool looking at some new chart that you haven't looked at in a while,
or haven't seen, kind of see if there's some kind of interesting opportunities.
Let me see what happened to that OP chart, the optimism.
I was, so that optimism just sort of broke out of prior high, in case anyone's wondering.
That's, the ticker is OP.
Its market cap is $3 billion with an obscenely high, fully diluted valuation of $15 billion.
And it broke out from its previous high.
Now, these things can go to obscene valuations, because these are like popular layer twos on Ethereum.
I don't know too much about the Ethereum ecosystem to say one way or the other.
I just bopped the chart pretty much.
And let's see, the all-time high on this one is $3.78, I think,
which I think it made just recently.
And, well, it made that yesterday, I think.
And we're down about 8% from that.
I bought right around here in this area as a breakout play.
I'm just going to hold it for probably a 2x.
So I bought it like $3.50.
I'm going to sell it about $7.
So just a quick trade type of thing.
If I had a lot of conviction in this thing,
I would have bought it at the very bottom of the bear market.
But I just couldn't be bothered, apparently.
So in a bull market, you'll feel like you've missed out on everything.
That's just how it works.
You just have to decide whether the charts are worth trading or not.
AK had a question about, what are your thoughts on Levana?
I think we talked about Levana a bit earlier.
It's price is definitely a lot lower than before.
So my position's underwater.
As far as exactly what a good price to buy in it, I'm not sure.
I haven't really formed much of a thesis on it.
So pretty much what I did with it is I've allocated some to it.
And I've just sort of left it alone now.
And then if I find that, like, you know, let's say price is down.
Well, it's at $0.20 right now.
I think I picked up some of it at $0.50 and some of it at $1.
Arguably, I should just get more now.
But I'm not really sure what the bottom is for this exactly.
So I just kind of have been waiting for a while and see what happens.
Plus, there's been some airdrops and other shit that, like, might cause some selling pressure.
And therefore, like, my first entry was just the cost of entry, I guess.
But I'm down on that particular buy.
So I think we'll just see.
I could decide whether to add more.
Anyway.
Yeah, I don't know.
A fair amount of number of these sort of charts are, like, seem like they're topping out at resistance and looking kind of wobbly.
So I don't know if they're going to continue upwards the next couple of weeks or what's going on.
The more dips there are, the better, in a sense, because then you boot out the leverage traders.
They get liquidated.
And then you can get more continuation upwards.
You want the spot buyers is what you want.
And it takes time to accumulate more spot buyers.
Anyway, I think if no one has any other comments or anything, we can kind of get going.
Yeah, it's late here.
Is it late there, too?
Yeah, it's Christmas, you know, tomorrow.
Yeah, the fam here wants to get some dinner this evening.
Sort out the gifts and whatnot.
So I think we'll do that.
Okay, guys.
Yep.
We'll catch up later, then.
Talk to you later, sir.
Bye-bye.
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Bye-bye.
