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BTC SHORT SQUEEZE OR NEW BULL MARKET? BTC vs ALTs #CryptoTownHall
Recorded: June 21, 2023 Duration: 1:24:21Space Recording
Short Summary
The transcript discusses significant trends in the crypto industry, including the integration of crypto into traditional finance, increased spot buying of Bitcoin, and regulatory developments with upcoming stable coin legislation. Additionally, the launch of EDX Markets by major financial institutions highlights strategic partnerships in the crypto trading space.
Full Transcription
All right, test, I wish you start putting music.
I keep forgetting.
Romi, if you're listening, we need to start putting music in those spaces, in all our spaces,
because this is a bit embarrassing where people just see me set up.
Everyone says it's awkward.
Let me get the invites out.
I have to, it's a new Mario now.
I've got the new profile photo, so I need to act different.
I need to be more professional.
I need to have music.
And why is there a profile photo of Imran Khan?
As soon as we announced our Imran Khan space, let me get Scott up.
As soon we announced our Imran Khan's face,
my followers from Pakistan just blew up.
So I'm grateful for everyone from Pakistan.
Didn't expect that.
Yeah, I can see, look at the guy, gentleman H, Butterfly 33, sending me love hearts.
What's up, Mickey? You're making an enemy of David Sachs, man.
I retweeted it and you ruined my relationship with Sachs.
What are you doing, man?
Scott, how are you?
I'm good, man. How are you doing today?
Good man, good. I actually read the agenda today, so I don't feel as unprepared. Even though it's not much today. So it's one of the few days where there's not much on the agenda. But I read it. Yeah, there's a lot to talk about. I think it's just not necessarily new to today. But I think as each day passes with all of these sort of news cycles, we're absorbing a lot more. And there's definitely a lot to go over.
Yeah. And then, okay, can you invite, oh, there's Joshua Frank, just invited him. I'm just sending out all the invites. But in the meantime, just to talk shit for the beginning, because we don't have music, because I haven't prepared that yet. Did you see the tweet that we're getting in Ron Khan? I don't think me and you spoke about it yet.
Yeah, it's insane. That's fucking mental.
That's going to be bigger than the Elon Musk space.
Yeah, I'm trying to get Elon, so I'll ask him again today maybe.
Hopefully he'll join, that'll be epic, because it's like a perfect example of citizen journalism.
But we're worried he's going to get arrested today.
There's a lot of rumors about arrest pending today.
So hopefully, because I got, what's his name?
Me and Rand were meant to chat too, thanks to Rand Romo Mentor to interview Tate.
Andrew Tate, and then a few days before we had an interview with him, he gets arrested.
Okay.
And now if Imran Khan gets arrested before he comes on our show, the rumors will begin.
Nobody's ever going to accept our invites again, ever.
Yeah, exactly, exactly, man.
Like, I invite Trump, be like, bro, no way.
No way.
I'm being indicted.
Once I accept your invite, I'm going to get arrested.
Rand, I've sent you a co-host invite.
Thank you.
You're welcome.
Okay.
All right, I think we've sent out all the co-house advice, so we're good to go.
We'll give it a bit of time for the audience to join.
Mario, you think you're going to get every presidential candidate at some point?
I mean, you just had Marion Williams.
I don't know.
Biden, Biden won't.
Yeah, yeah.
Yeah, we did RFK's announcement of us running for president.
Sorry, I should have asked if you were going to do any living presidential candidates, not zombies.
Yeah.
Okay, well, number one, with you saying things like this, maybe I want.
So get me, Gensler.
Come on, let's go.
And number two, I probably won't get Gensler either.
But, yeah, we're trying.
We're working on it.
Like, Rand, by the way, you guys have an incredible network.
Like, we thought we've got a pretty good network.
And then when we started working together, it's like we can literally reach anyone in the world.
Because we've got such different networks.
Um, like, I don't know how the hell...
Scott is the master.
Scott is the master.
Scott, I don't know how Scott gets the access that he does.
I'm seriously.
What's your magic, Scott? Tell us.
Uh, I don't know.
I'm nice to people.
I literally don't know.
Well, obviously, I have an amazing producer, which, uh, helps tremendously.
And I think you just get momentum, you know, uh, you get, uh, one guy and then the other guy
sees that that guy is there.
But honestly, I think just, uh,
general networking and long history of doing things.
Okay, Scott, I've got another question for you.
But Danish, I see you in the audience.
If you have five, what I want to do, Dynish, if you have Dynish up here.
Get him up.
I don't know if you'll accept, but what we want to do now is we want to start doing like a quick.
So Scott, you do a quick crypto update in the finance space,
and then Danish will come on here, do a quick macro update in this space.
Just so we can cross pollinate, plus it's also cool.
Now, Danish has a habit of coming in the audience and just ignoring our request to come up.
He does that sometimes.
But I want to start doing that from tomorrow of Donichin, if you have time.
You can do it throughout the space as well.
But Scott, I want to ask you again, while waiting for the audience to join, how do you do it?
Without just bullshitting around it saying, yeah, my team, I love my team.
They're incredible.
Genuinely, what's your strategy?
To be honest, I mean, as a life policy, my entire life, I'm not afraid to ask for what I want from any person that I want it from.
And I think that that's generally been it.
you know, talk to a girl, go talk to the girl.
Talk to a celebrity, go talk to a celebrity.
I did it in my music career, and I think it works here.
If you don't shoot your shot, you have no chance.
How'd you meet your wife?
She talked to me.
I was DJing at a club in New York City, actually.
And we had a mutual friend who was a photographer, and she approached me.
We started talking.
And actually then she left, and we reconnected like six months later through Facebook, of all places, because it did the people you know.
And she reached back out to be on Facebook.
That's exactly how it happened.
Well, congratulations.
How did we meet?
I think who introduced us?
Have you met Scott's wife?
Have you met Scott's wife?
I haven't met Scott in person because I don't travel and he doesn't come to Dubai.
So we've never actually met in person, which is ridiculous.
I would say that Scott is completely out of his league here, bro.
If I were to be out of...
By like 100, Jacks.
Yo, oh, by the way, Ryan, if you, so Robert Wolfe is coming to South Africa December and I might come with him.
If I come, you got to host me and I'm meeting your family.
We're here, bro.
We're not going anywhere here.
But I'll be meeting Fred. I'll be meeting Fred before you. I love you, but I'll be meeting Fred first. I'm coming.
You should come. It's the best, it really is the best place to be in December. And I say this, having traveled all around the world in December, looking for the best holiday to places like Florinopolis, Brazil, to Mexico, to you name it, Argentina, you name it. I went all over the world, and I found that the best place in December was actually Cape Town.
It really was.
Yeah, and just,
just, Dennis joined up.
I've brought up umbrella as well.
I'll get you guys to meet him quickly.
Fred is a lot more fun than Ryan anyway.
Oh, Fred is the best.
Fred never comes up.
Fred is a brand's business partner for everyone.
I've been pushing him to come up.
He's been rejecting.
So I've just sent him an invite.
But look, you guys don't join here so we talk shit and you don't care much about us.
You just want an update on the market.
What's going on?
So we're going to kick it off with Darnish.
Darnish does the finance base in the morning with Scott.
And, you know, he covers macro stories.
Darnish, um,
one of the best hosts I know.
Give us an update.
You know, five, five minute update or longer if there's more updates.
Really quickly, I have to say that...
the it seems like the crypto updates are not going to be finance updates since all the financial
institutions own all of the crypto so it's starting to become the same space i have to say yikes
yikes ha ha funny not funny like you all have been working for the past few years to make crypto
retail and then gensler
nukes all the crypto bros and gives it to the Wall Street bros.
I have to say, I'm not saying that Wall Street is winning, but it's kind of working out a little right now.
I just had to say that.
I just had to say that I'm not trying to start a rivalry.
I'm just saying the truth.
Now, but when you say, so Don't know, when you say Wall Street is winning,
but that doesn't mean crypto's not winning as well.
I think for crypto to win, it does need Wall Street's adoption, whether we like it or not.
Maybe, but like, I mean, you guys had your own exchanges, right?
Like, I mean, we know about Binance and Coinbase and others.
Now, I know Coinbase is powering one of the big exchanges that's coming up from Wall Street.
And maybe it might be a win-win.
But to try to behave now, like...
Like crypto, essentially we're not picking winners and losers, that crypto is really meeting up to its promise.
Crypto is going to become another financial instrument for the fractional financial system.
I'm pretty convinced of that's what's going to end up happening.
You guys can disagree with it.
Short term or, hold on, short term or long term?
100% long term.
It's essentially going to become a part of the existing financial system.
And that's what's going to happen.
I agree. I agree with Danish. I agree with them. I think that it's just going to be integrated.
I think the lines are going to become so blurred that it's just going to be, it's like the internet, you know, who cares what it's built on and who cares how it works.
All financial instruments are going to be traded on some kind of blockchain. It's a fact. It's just whether it's going to happen in 10 years or 20 years.
And this concept of like decentralization and ownership and all of this other stuff that people were promising for the past few years.
unfortunately it's just going to get financialized and institutionalized and essentially will become a part of the existing fractional system.
That's just what's going to end up happening.
I disagree.
I disagree.
I think that the bulk of it will be exactly what you guys said, but that will actually push plenty of people into defy and decentralized, just maybe less people in the United States.
But I think that we're undervaluing or under discussing the amount of people who are unbanked and underbanked,
which was the entire ethos of this in the first place, who will continue to use these products as they evolve, as their bank, as their transfers, as their payment method, as their wallet.
That may not happen in the United States where we need it, but it's certainly going to happen with stablecoids all over the world.
So listen, I think there are two very separate narratives.
I think we're always taking this United States focused approach to viewing this because that's where all the news is, as if the rest of the world doesn't exist where they actually need these things.
I guess.
But I wanted to give a full macro thing to, Mario.
Go ahead.
Yeah, before you do the macro thing down, first, like, you know, you...
can you come with a better mood next time,
not sitting here shitting on us
when you're the guest of honor?
But as Dona's shits on us,
let me just give an update for the audience.
Number one, I want you to tell me in the comments.
It's the bottom right corner.
If you agree with Donish or not,
And look, Donish, you have a point when Web 1.0 came out was meant to be all about decentralization,
and it did nothing but centralize our world further.
So the whole concept of decentralization, while I believe in it, it is an experiment.
I think it will succeed.
I think now we've got the technology through blockchain for it to succeed,
but it will be a process.
And they may be even more centralization before it decentralizes.
But as a species, we've always...
opted for centralization and convenience.
But we'll see.
Hopefully I'm wrong and I'm betting on decentralization.
Mario, I want first, I want Donish to give his update, but then I want to go to Sid specifically and Dave who are actually building these things because I think they will prove that what I'm saying is correct.
But Donish, let's get that macro update first.
Yeah, before before he does, let me just give a quick update for the audience.
So in the bottom right corner, tell us if you agree with Danish or if you agree with Scott
in terms of whether decentralization will work or not, that's number one.
Number two, tell me if you like my profile photo or I made a mistake moving away from the punk.
That's a big debate is happening right now.
So comments, bottom right corner.
And number three, if you're an investor and have portfolio companies,
there's the pinned tweets above as usual.
You can email us if you want your show, your project to come on the show.
We've got a shout out or work with our incubator.
So just go on the tweets above.
You can either email us through there or DM or comment,
but preferable is email because Rand will kill me.
I mean, I'm in, my...
probably now is a great time to talk about the fact that we've got a, we've got a sponsor.
We do sell sponsorships and advertising on the show.
There's a tweet.
There's a tweet.
And we've actually got a sponsor that's joined us, which we'll talk about Matt Led on the show today.
Yeah, so we'll talk about them.
For now, what you need to know is that is a tweet.
The name of the sponsor is called Planet.
And they've partnered up with, I know who it is, but I can't mention the name until they reveal it.
I'll say this, Ran Ran.
Let me say this about the name and I'll continue to talk about them.
Just for the name, Rand mentioned the name we had a fight today because I didn't believe it.
But obviously they proved it to me.
So just to let you know that it is a pretty legit name and it took us, we had a whole debate like, holy shit, is that true?
And we had evidence.
So that's, it is a pretty impressive name.
Yeah, go and check it out.
There's a print tweet.
The sponsor is called Planet.
they are doing something amazing
taking care of the planet.
We do vet our sponsors
and we really don't want to be involved
with anyone that we don't think is real.
And they are really doing something
amazing for the planet
and they're doing it with
Someone who is known as the goat,
and as you can see,
the meme that they've got is all about the goats.
You can try and work it out.
It will be,
we'll probably announce to the next two to three days
who the goat is.
And when it happens,
I think it'll all come together for you
to know exactly who planet is.
But in the meantime, check it out.
I think you'll be very, very, very impressed.
Yeah, it's on, it's on, there's a tweet on RAN's profile, so go to his profile.
I've also pinned it above.
And just to give you a hint about the goat, it's not me.
So just it makes it a bit easier for everyone to guess the goat is not me.
But yeah, it's obviously Michael Jordan.
Yeah.
Donish, Danish, let's go through the update.
Yeah, let's go through the macro update.
So it was really interesting that you guys were talking about the planet.
So the number one thing that happened today is a Kentucky congressman has now is introducing a bill today.
to ban funds from using ESG,
and there's been this whole movement,
anti-ESG movement,
and say that these fiduciaries should focus only on profits.
Now, as a reminder, this has happened before
and it was actually vetoed as part of another bill by Biden.
But this is, you know, this is noting a shift
in bipartisan perception.
And by the way, that last bill had three Democrats that voted for it.
There's a high likelihood that more Democrats are going to vote for this.
And so there's this anti-ESG movement that is,
and we had a pretty deep discussion on our spaces at eight o'clock Eastern,
that around this, and a bunch of really big names came in and talked about
why it's good, why it's bad, why it's irrelevant.
But it was very, very interesting to go through that.
Number two, so that ESG movement thing, stay tuned because there are some people that believe that this movement towards ESG investing is actually causing a lot of the troubles that we're having with supply chain in America.
And there's a huge movement towards that.
And Donish, Donish, just in 30 seconds, what is ESG investing?
Yeah.
Yeah, so it's about environmental.
It's about sustainability and it's about governance.
So what they're talking about is, you know,
things that are supporting maybe climate-related activities
and trying to be good for the climate,
they get a higher score.
If you're focused on sustainability...
in other measures, local sustainability,
other measures of sustainability,
they get a higher score.
And then governance wise, if you have more diversity on your board,
more diversity in your leadership,
you get a higher score.
So it's the scoring system that allows people
to be able to tell individual retail or ultra high net worth or institutional investors,
hey, by the way, you're making an impact.
And here's the companies that we're going to.
If you invest in this fund, we can do this.
And what's interesting is there's been such a movement towards this that ultimately it's become the main driver and,
One really interesting bit about this.
Most ESG funds have higher fees.
So the actual Wall Street
brokers and and people that are making and the hedge funds that are running these ESG funds are
actually making more money doing ESG, you know, pound for pound, than compared to just doing
profitability only. And if you're thinking about retirement funds, this place where they're starting is
ERISA, which is the retirement funds. And they want to change the actual laws so that
retirement funds can't focus on ESG and should only focus on the pensions that they provided
that they talked about for the retire retirees and any any beyond ESG because we're going a bit
too deep just general market update how the markets look into we think we'll move to crypto very
quickly yeah so the market is looking pretty decent today's been i'm sorry go ahead we need we need to
crypto because the markets are 295 and bitcoin is ripping oh go ahead and
We'll move to crypto.
There's a lot to talk about it.
Yeah, go ahead, Ron.
Go ahead.
Ron, anyone?
Yeah, guys, who's giving us an update on crypto?
Yeah, I'll give you a quick update quickly.
So you've got Bitcoin now 295, Ethereum at 1845.
Bitcoin dominance 51.29.
So it is very much still a Bitcoin rally.
Very, very, very interesting what is going on here.
Initially, everybody said this was a short squeeze.
Then, a key young Jew who owns Crypto quant and does a lot of on chain research said,
actually, hold on, this is actually not a short squeeze at all.
This is actually driven by spot buying.
And it started, there was a heavy spot buying which started yesterday.
Specifically, that spot buying happened on Coinbase and specifically a lot of US-centric spot buying.
Now, why do I say that that's interesting is because if you think about where the war on crypto was declared,
It was pretty much in the US.
And if you think about where all these institutions are actually making the moves, it's also in the US.
And so it feels like now there's a whole lot of US related FOMO to get back into Bitcoin.
I'm not saying crypto yet.
Although it is starting to go to trickle down into the crypto market.
And now that spot buying has actually started to cause a whole lot of shorts getting liquidated.
Only now, only in the last couple of hours, have the shorts started to actually get liquidated.
Hey, Rand, I want to add to that just really quickly.
Oh, sorry, you can go ahead, Vinnie.
Hey, Ryan, so before I jump in, do you want to just tell everyone what you and I disagreed with on your show last year about Bitcoin dominance?
Yes, yes, Vinny's article does it.
Vinny said that Bitcoin dominance will go through the roof and I said it won't and Vinny was right again.
About 50% and Ryan, exact words were that'll never happen.
But what was the reason you said it back then? Vinny, Vinny, what was the reason you set it back then?
Is that exactly what happened with the SEC now?
Well, no, that was partial.
Like the belief after last year, after the whole collapse that happened in 2021 is that, look, there's a lot of scams out there.
There's a lot of coins that are pumping dumps.
There's a lot of things which are just, like, they got bad holdings and distribution levels.
Like too many, you know, too many whales holding coins that can dump.
And, you know, when these things are, when you see the carnage in the market, the safe haven is Bitcoin.
I mean, we know this.
People in crypto go to Bitcoin.
And what's happening now is exactly that thesis playing out to a different degree.
Holding securities or deemed security by the SEC will make compliance teams cringe, right?
So if you're an investment fund or bank or whatever, not banks in the U.S. don't really hold crypto.
But if you want a registered investment sort of advisor or fund fund.
you're going to be thinking at having a second thought about anything that they've called out on that list recently as securities and you're going to be dumping that stuff and you're going to be like look I still want crypto exposure you know Bitcoin's basically market beta for crypto let's just take the market risk and not worry about you know outperforming it right now and Bitcoin looks pretty cheap at these levels and so even personally I've been buying more Bitcoin you know substantially more Bitcoin and and you know a
light email weights in
ALS because
the risk is
that these
so first of all
demand is drying up for ALS
there's no new
else coming in the market
which kind of helps a bit
I think as people are
consolidating the investments
but you know
people are selling out of all
their alt coins and
And especially the ones that haven't moved in a while, there's no signs of life.
And you're going to see this decompression.
It's like a seesaw effect, right?
When Bitcoin tanks, like it did, 5,000, 20% nearly from its high, people can be like, oh, this looks cheap.
Let's go and sell some other also, or let's take cash on the sidelines and buy Bitcoin and write it back up.
Bitcoin is still very strong.
Vinny,
question,
before you go into it,
is this not what happens
every single cycle
where we think that
I mean, I remind you, me and you actually had this exact same discussion in the last cycle.
And I remember that when everybody else moved, there was the old coin reckoning, so to speak.
And that was the flashout of all the old narratives, all the EOSs and all those other old narrative coins.
And everybody went into Bitcoin.
And ETH was, I think, trading at 80 bucks at the time or 70 bucks or something like that.
And then E.C. merged out of the cycle and all of other ones actually emerged out of the cycle.
So isn't this the same pattern just repeating itself and just getting...
And what was the dominant back then compared to now as well, Vinie?
I can't remember. I think Bik-Dominence went up to 70.
Dominance, yeah. It was really high.
Guy, you have to remember, though, that back then,
Dominance didn't include stable coins because there wasn't $120 billion worth of stable coins in the market.
It also didn't include the fact that we print 700 meme coins a day.
Yeah, but Dominance right now is 55% excluding meme coins.
Sorry, excluding stable coins, sorry.
So, I mean, let's put this, pull that aside for just a second.
People trying to buy into crypto are not buying anything which is being deemed as security.
They are buying Bitcoin and they're probably buying Ethereum as well because the CFC and the SEC can find it out or whether it's a commodity or not.
But.
I think it's Ethereum is reasonably safe.
That's it.
So you've got money flowing into those top two coins.
I'd say Bitcoin is probably taking 75, 80% of the new money in.
Ethereum is probably taking 20% of this point.
And you've got the Bitcoin halving coming up, which has a psychological effect.
The inflationary effect is minor this year.
But it does take, it does take setting pressure out of the market.
So I think we're consolidating the 25 to 30K range for a while now.
And I...
And we may not break 31,000 in this sort of movement in the range.
It might go back down to 25K.
But with people sort of lining up, waiting for it to break,
when it breaks over 31, it's going to go on another run to the next level of resistance.
Not sure where that is, but the new money is not flowing into, at least in the US, money's just not flowing into alt.
And you can speak to the trading desks.
There's just no one really buying alt.
So you get the DJN's trading it, but that's about it.
And they can.
Yeah.
And they can't.
They're being deemed securities here.
But Rand, just really quick, I want to go back to your original point.
not only about the fact that this is being spot-driven,
but something that is also worth discussing.
Obviously, GBTC because of the discount
and because it still is the asset that's available
to people who want to put this in their brokerage account,
went up 17, 18% while Bitcoin went up 5% or 6%.
Microstrategy, riot, marathon, everything Bitcoin adjacent
that people can get their hands on in the United States,
especially institutions who can't buy spot Bitcoin yet or have a limit on it,
has been absolutely pumping out of control the last 36 hours.
So this isn't even just, if you want more evidence that this is spot-driven
and not short liquidations,
everything Bitcoin adjacent is getting absolutely massively bought up.
Yeah, I mean, I did my whole show today.
A large part of my show today was actually on this GBTC discount.
Because we've been telling our community to buy it since the GBTC discount was at 48%.
And what we said is at some point this discount has to close when we get close to an ETF approval,
which means that anyone who did that would have made the 13% close of the discount plus whatever the upside of Bitcoin is,
which was always a thesis.
And today our thesis is actually starting to get vindicated.
Now, the question is, would I be buying it now?
No, and I'll tell you why.
I just think that these narratives change week after week after week.
So this week's narrative is this BlackRock ETF,
and that's why the ETF related, Bitcoin ETF related shares, in this case, are moving up.
But I think that next week it will be a different narrative,
and then the GBTC discount will drop back again.
So to be honest, I think a lot of people have missed this trade.
My feeling is...
You know, maybe it's a little bit more upside, but the risk return now is not a great risk return.
There's still a long road between where GBT is today and it becoming an ETF.
Dave, you're giving a thumbs down.
Love to hear it.
Yeah, I mean, well, I agree with the last sentence that Mario said.
I do think it's a long road for GVTC to become an ETF.
That's probably true.
Most likely it will require some arranged marriage, as we discussed last week.
But I think that what I want to go back to what you were saying earlier, Scott,
because I think it describes the rally pretty well.
And look, we do our Monday shows, and you've been hearing me say this for months now.
The fact is there's two use cases in the world of crypto.
And this is why you could be a Bitcoin maxi when it comes to money,
but understand that there's technological innovation when it comes to defy,
and there could very well be future use cases there.
But the money use case is extremely important.
What do people, what captures the imagination of the average trader,
the average, not trader, the average investor,
The Uber driver who every single Uber driver who hears me say something about coin routes starts talking to me about Bitcoin. I mean, it's literally 100% of the time. It doesn't matter. Normal people, what is the narrative they hear? They hear digital gold, digital gold, digital gold.
Now, what does digital gold mean?
Digital gold means that Bitcoin takes over for the monetary part of gold.
And we could debate what the monetary part of gold is.
I generally look at it as about 75% of gold's market cap, and I'm happy to explain why,
if anyone cares.
But at any event, we know that.
that gold demonetized silver because silver really isn't monetary anymore.
And that digital gold narrative would imply a Bitcoin price of 20 times the price that it's at today, 20 times.
So Bitcoin is really still trading like an option on that adoption.
I've said that before in the show, but I want to be clear what that means.
What does it mean? It has nothing to do with decentralization. It is nothing to do with banking the unbanked from the U.S. investors' perspective. But Scott is 100% right. There's two narratives. So at the same time, we have people using it for other reasons and understanding for currency hedges, et cetera. We have U.S. investors. And the BlackRock.
announcement means something. What does it mean? Right now, the average person, and I talked about this on
your show on Monday, Scott, my brother, the financial advisor, told me point blank, he can't do anything
with Bitcoin, despite him having read it follows you, Scott, and understands. He can't put customers
in it because he has no method to do so.
There's a wall of money out there that it's not a wall going to come crashing into Bitcoin, but literally that is excluded from investing in Bitcoin.
They can invest in gold through GLD, IAU, et cetera, but there is nothing to invest in Bitcoin that gives them that ability.
A actual ETF would do that.
And just to what we're talking about, you know, the 6040 portfolio at replacing gold or
augmented gold, one, two percent, maybe as much as 5 percent of people who are really
aggressive.
But that's a double digit trillions of dollars.
And so the fact is, is we've been talking about the macro with Bitcoin for a while,
Vinny used the words accumulation phase.
I've been saying the same thing, which is pretty much every sell, every, you know, sell off is met by patient buyers who are averaging doubt.
Now, what happens when the script flips and there aren't panic sellers for those patient buyers to buy from?
Well, they average up and they don't chase FOMO, but they average up.
Now, what happens when there's more buyers because now all of a sudden there's more people can enter the market?
What happens?
That is the bull case for Bitcoin.
period. It has nothing to do with financialization. I don't understand why anybody in the Bitcoin
community would hate that. Where the bear case is, is do people start making structured
derivatives and shorting into it?
And I mean, who knows?
I mean, I've heard people speculate that J.P. Morgan wants to short Bitcoin.
I frankly doubt it for lots of reasons.
I think maybe when it hits 250,000, they'll be shorting the crap out of it to make a quick trade because they may be able to crash it down to 100,000.
But at these levels, I don't think anybody large is interested in shorting Bitcoin.
So I don't think that's as big of a deal.
There is an issue of financialization, but that's kind of the point here.
Really quick, Dave, sorry to interrupt you really quick.
We do have a bit of breaking news here.
The U.S. House Committee to vote on crypto stable coin legislation in July.
just came out that that is actually going to happen and we are going to see a vote on that.
So I think that that's actually pretty huge considering we've been waiting.
Now, I'll believe it when I see it, but considering we've been waiting for an actual vote on any of these,
I believe there's over 20 bills that have been proposed with relation to stable coins and crypto,
seems like we're going to start to actually get some answers from Congress in the next 30 days.
Thanks, Scott.
So maybe link this to Powell's comments about stable coins quickly.
Yeah, and at the same time, I'm digging into it right now, obviously, in the news.
But Jerome Powell said that it would be a mistake to leave Fed with a weak role on stable coins,
and we see stable coins as a form of money.
I'm digging through the video right now and looking for a tweet that we can pin.
But, yeah, I mean, this is...
It's pretty crazy that Powell in his comments on the Congress floor.
Tomorrow he'll be on the Senate floor is talking about stable coins effectively in the last few minutes.
And we're actually going to start to see a vote on these legislation surrounding them.
And if someone can, go ahead, Ron.
I probably worth mentioning around this bill that I think the current bill doesn't allow algorithmic stable coins or non-fully backed stable coins in the US.
And I think that it has negative implications on things like die.
I think it would also have negative implications on things like USDT, because I think the stable coins that would be allowed in the US need to be regulated in the US.
I remember there was something like that.
I don't know if there's anybody who can maybe shed some more insight on what the implications will be.
Has anyone looked into it?
Anyone on the, if no one's on stage looked into, I'll try to get a speaker that could comment on that.
And then kind of links to the next question.
I see Capcos, you're sending a lot of emojis.
If you could DM us, if you want to comment on this particular question,
DM us and tell us what qualifications you have will bring you up, if you don't mind,
instead of all these emojis.
But, Rand, are you holding, do you hold any USDT?
Yeah, I hold approximately 50% of my USDA reserves in USDT and another 50% in USDC.
Yeah, I mean, I was all in USC and then what happened with the USDC if that happened.
And then I went all into USDT and then the other day there was a USDT replay and I was like, fuck this.
I'm going, screw this.
I'm going into both.
I'm going into 50-50 and that's just the way it's going to be.
Because I know the narrative, a small narrative that was being discussed earlier is that BTC is the safest bet.
If you want to hold in anything that's closest to being stable or a safe haven in crypto,
BTC is a better option than stable coins with the current lack of clarity.
What do you think of that?
Yeah.
I mean, look, the majority of my money that is allocated to crypto is currently allocated into the market.
And the majority of that is obviously allocated into Bitcoin.
But with that said, we do keep some dry powder that we can invest in the case that there is a market dip.
Now, if there's a market dip and Bitcoin goes, I don't know, for whatever reason, if finance, you know, if there's DOJ charges against finance or whatever else, if that happens, you want to have some USD reserves.
Now, if you do want to have some USD reserves, you don't want those exposed to crypto so that you can use them to buy the dip, so to speak.
Well, then where do you keep them?
And I don't know, I think for me, the safer strategy is just a basket of USDC and USDT.
Vinny, I'd love to hear what your view is there.
I have a question for you, Ron.
Where do you think the tens of billions of dollars worth of UST's holdings are being held?
Where do I think that they're being held?
They actually gave a breakdown and it's mainly in T-Bels, basically, short-data T-Bels, mainly.
Okay.
Obviously, they have to have some cash as well.
Yeah, they gave a breakdown the other day.
I think we, I don't have the tweeting in front of me.
I think it was actually yesterday when there was, they gave that, they gave a breakdown of exactly where their reserves are.
Yeah.
But my biggest concern with USET is that the US government has taken basically at an angle and doing a war with crypto, right?
And I don't think it's far fast to believe that they're going to hunt down and find whoever the custodians are these.
bonds, these treasuries and cash are, whether it's banks or whatever, and try to seize it.
And they've tried to do this in the past already.
So USDT, the token, represents the sum total of all the cash and cash equivalent that these guys are holding in various institutions and places.
And if the U.S. government is able to track down where it is and freeze or seize these assets, the value of U.S.D.T.
plummets.
And so, you know, it hasn't happened yet.
But we also have a meeting in this sort of regular environment where they're getting very, very aggressive.
So I wouldn't personally touch USDT right now.
So where would you put your money?
Would you put your money on to USC?
Yeah, I think USC is the safest option at this point.
Yeah, look, I mean, we were in USC, and the reason why we exited a little bit of our USDC holdings was because we felt that USDC was too exposed to the United States.
And the problem is, you know, with the US regulatory attack, you just don't know what their next group is going on.
Yeah, but the US government can't, they cannot really freeze...
all the USC assets and take it away.
They could sooner do that than they could do a USDT because the assets are regulated and power in the United States.
They could have done a long time ago.
They could have done it so they can Valley Bank went under.
They could have done it.
By the way, that would that would massively screw Coinbase.
Yes, and they wouldn't want to, but they haven't done it.
So that tells you, the fact that they haven't done it means that they, like from just a pure regulatory perspective, constitutional right perspective, they can't really do that.
Okay.
But USTT is unlicensed.
It's out the country.
It's, they can argue it's aiding and abating terrorism.
They can use.
the, you know, the Patriot Act to go off them, whatever.
It's a little different, Ron.
So I'm just, I'm just questioning here that I personally don't hold USET and I just don't like to...
Look, I agree with you.
I agree with you.
I agree with you.
I agree with you, Vinya.
And to be honest, I'm uncomfortable holding USDT or USCC, but you need to have...
Like, we have a very small percentage of our crypto portfolio, which sits in what we call cash.
And that is to capitalize on any opportunities should there be a marketer.
That's where we keep what we call our dry powder.
I mean, I don't see any other option of where to keep it.
I'm not going to keep it in diet.
I'm not going to keep it.
Because if the U.S.D.C goes down, die is going down with it.
Where else do you keep it?
USC, I really think UCC is safe.
Here's my question. So obviously we just broke that news that we're going to get a vote on stable coins in the next month or so. But this is a consensus. I'm seeing a lot of places. Berenberg major funds said today this was broken in CoinDest. Stable coins defy likely to be SEC's next target in U.S. crypto crackdown. So.
If that's the case, if the SEC is going to come after stable coins,
but we also have Congress looking to legislate around them
and somewhat at least protect some of them,
does that mean that stable coins become the next sort of major battleground
here between regulators and legislators for this market?
Yeah.
In my opinion, the only stable coin that will stand up to scrutiny right now at scale
is USCT.
USET is not going to stand up to scrutiny at all.
Hold on. Hold on. Hold on. Hold on. Hold on.
Let's just agree.
Yeah, let's just agree on one thing here.
All of these USD back stable coins are all securities.
We had this discussion on this space before.
It's very simple.
They're not backed by USDA.
They're not backed by USDA equivalents.
They're all backed by a basket of.
teables, bonds, and debt.
No, but there's no expectation of a gain.
That's not true.
You're not existing with the expectation.
No, exactly.
You're both wrong.
You're both wrong.
You're both wrong.
I'll tell you why you're both wrong.
We had this discussion on the spaces last time.
There's two reasons why you're both wrong.
The first thing is if USDC DPEGs and I bought at 91 cents
in the expectation that's going back, that it's going to be 100,
Oh, that's so false, dude.
That has nothing to do with the actual asset.
That has to do with traders trading it on an exchange.
Yeah, it's like in my Nike sneakers, if my Nike sneakers,
I paid $1,000 for drops down to $800.
Is it a security now?
Jump in, Sid.
Yeah, that wouldn't make, like, the investment in a common enterprise type aspect
in the how we test stuff.
Like, it's, you know, a sort of pure secondary market trading.
It doesn't seem like it would stand up there.
Yeah, but remember folks...
The Howie Test is the only part of the definition of a security.
You know, all of these concerns about, you know, is there an expectation of profit?
Is there a group and everything?
That's only a small subset of the overall definition of a security in the United States.
The overall definition of a security is very broad.
It includes all kinds of things, including debt, including stocks, equity, bonds, CDs, and
and investment contracts.
And then this thing called investment contract is defined.
And then that was further clarified by this court decision called Howie,
which sets up these prongs and everything.
Most people focus on it and say,
oh, if it meets Howie or doesn't meet Howie,
that makes it a security or doesn't.
But the definition is actually more broad than that.
And it includes all kinds of instruments.
You can look up the definition.
It's extremely long and broad,
and courts have held up that it should be interpreted broadly.
I would also add we had five lawyers over at our office yesterday.
And one of the things that was mentioned is that the Howie test historically has only been used for primary issuance of assets.
It hasn't been used for secondary trading, right?
So the idea that something started as a security and then became a non-security, right?
And so if the argument is that, okay, if it de-pegs, I don't think that holds up to how, I mean, historically at least how he's been used.
And we've seen that argued actually in the library case that it's potentially, I mean, John Deaton literally like American hero fighting for the little guy, making basically them say that the secondary sale there is probably not a security.
They're fighting for the same exact thing in Ripple.
And I don't think, to Josh, to your point, people understand the implications.
I was talking to James Murphy, Meta Lawman.
And he said if these secondary sales are deemed securities, that's basically the, that would be deemed retroactive as well.
And think about all of the.
funds and VCs and everyone in the United States who has bought and sold these things,
which would effectively be retroactively legal if all of the secondary sales were deemed securities.
So it's very unlikely they would be.
Yeah, but so, Ryan, just on your point regarding Stables being securities,
you've made the assumption that there's a, you know, people would want to make a return
if it deep pegs.
Have you spoken to other attorneys that share that same view?
I mean, we've had multiple attorneys on the spaces and on my show.
And they've made, but they've made the same point.
There's an expectation of a return.
Like, you can make that argument, legally make that argument,
because it's just so, it's just seems.
But what if it never depeg?
That's ridiculous.
No offense, but that's ridiculous because they're not meant to depeg.
That's, that's something that's not.
But even if there's any legal grounds to it, they could try to twist it in their advantage.
Like, I've just, for attorneys to make that point, that means it's even a valid discussion, which I'm surprised it is.
Guys, you're not investing in stable coins.
You're investing in a fund.
that is managed by a bunch of fund managers at Tether and at USC,
and they sit there and there's an investment community.
But you're not expecting a return.
Yeah, yeah, and you're not expecting a return either.
You're using it as money.
You're not investing in it at all. They're investing, so potentially what they're doing on the back end, but yeah.
Look, I'm not a lawyer.
These are just opinions that I've got on the show and on the spaces.
And to me, it sounds like they could easily be challenged as securities.
You know, I wouldn't be surprised.
Let me ask you a question.
Why did the SEC go after BUSD and Paxos?
To attack finance?
And why did they not go after USDP, which is Paxos other coin?
But on what grounds?
But on what grounds?
We don't know the grounds.
We just know that it was enough to scare Paxos and finance.
By the way, and by the money.
Brian, Ryan, right.
USDC was on its knees.
literally with the whole Silicon Valley bank debacle at 80 cents.
They could have let them...
They could have just let the whole thing collapse.
They could have seizing USC that's not part of the recovery.
We're not going to rescue it.
You know, it's a...
They can't, hold on.
How can they rescue Silicon Valley Bank without rescuing?
Yeah, exactly.
How can you do...
Oh, absolutely.
No, they could have excluded it.
They totally could have.
But, but Vinny, if they consider it...
Yeah, but there's also too obvious.
If they call USDC a security, that's a better way of doing it.
They're not in a rush.
If there were, they would have taken action a long time ago.
No, no, no, no.
Guys, they could have easily said these stable coins are, you know,
securities that are facilitating money laundering and illicit trade and terrorist financing
and we're freezing these funds.
They could have totally done that.
No, but that wouldn't have been in context of the bank going down.
They would have done it differently.
And they can still do that today.
And by the way, I had a discussion with a mutual friend of husband.
I'm not going to mention them in case he doesn't want this discussion to be public.
He called this this this this um alt coin rally or this Bitcoin rally and this old coin demise
Um, uh, uh, very early on in the game. And he said to me, this is exactly what's going to happen.
The SEC is going to come after all of these securities. And at the time I thought, oh, come on, man.
You just, you know, you're just becoming a Bitcoin. Including stables. So he said,
They will start off with these securities in inverted commas, and then they will go to stablecoins.
And I said, well, how the hell are they going to ban stablecoins?
And he says, look, they've got many, many tools in their arsenal.
There's many, many tools in the arsenal, including if an instrument is linked to the US dollar.
And that instrument...
is used for elicitivity or for funding terrorism or for whatever else,
it gives the US a right to go after that instrument or that or that person or whatever else.
And that's just one way that they could end the stable coin.
But that's not as a security though.
That's a whole different argument now.
Yeah, that's a different thing.
That's what I've been saying.
Yeah.
No, but no, but I think your original point, you know, I actually agree with you, Rand, you know, that it is a security. If you look at the definition, you know, again, people are getting caught up on this how we think. That's only one, that's like one 30th of the definition. You know, if you look at the definition, I just looked it up here, it says,
A whole bunch of stuff.
Security means any note stock,
Treasury stocks to your security future-based swap,
bond, debenture, evidence of indebtedness,
on and on and on.
Then you get down here.
Certificate deposit or group or index of securities.
Treasury bills are securities.
So if you have a group of treasury bills,
that is definitely a security 100%.
Hold on, but you're saying, but, but, but Bruce, are you saying that the, the Howie test is one 30th of the definition?
The Howie test is not, you can, you can, the Howie Test is only part of it.
If you, if you meet the Howie Test, your security.
If you do not, you could still be a security.
You know, the idea, like you mentioned the thing about, you know, looking at the efforts of others for profits and assuming profit.
Yeah, if you're talking about Howie, that's relevant.
But there's ways to be a security that you don't have to, you don't have to meet those things.
I'm not a lawyer, I'm not a lawyer, but guys, if you have a document, if you have a proxy, if you have a token that represents an investment, sorry, a holding, not even an investment.
a holding in a fund that is actively managed.
You cannot tell me that that is not a security.
I mean, right.
Right.
Any, it doesn't even have to be actively managed.
Even, so hold on, guys, guys, even if, I know we're not lawyers, but even if there's no expectation of a return,
that's something just, sure, sure, sure.
Yeah, the expectation of return is a Howie prong.
That's a Howie prong.
Howie is not the whole, you can look up the whole definition.
I mean, it's real easy, just, you know, definition for security in the United States.
Are we, I always, I've done this a hundred times.
The FTC disagrees, though.
I mean, if you look at the March, the March,
finance,
the,
the,
the March,
lawsuit that they brought against Binance.
I'm going to read directly from the CFTC.
Digital assets include virtual currencies that are digital representations, blah, blah,
whatever.
Certain digital assets including Bitcoin, Eith,
light coin, at least two Fiat back stable coins,
tether USD and the Binance BUSD as well as other virtual currencies,
as alleged here in our commodities as defined under Section 1A9 of the Act 7 USC.
So the CFTC is a security.
They did not mention USD.
They did not mention U.S.C.
No, no, but they did mention they did mention BUSD and U.S.D.
There.
A commodity is a, sorry, just to be clear, a commodity is a security, but in U.S. law,
commodities have been carved out of securities laws, but they are securities.
And you've heard Gary Gaines and said that thing as well.
This is so confusing.
Look, I want to move it.
One step ahead, Sid, I'll let your answer,
but also if stables are considered securities,
what does that mean for crypto?
Go ahead, Sid, first of your thoughts.
No, I was just going to say,
I mean, conceptually things like Tether and USC
are closest, you know, closest to like Disney bucks
or Disney money, right?
Like, if you think about the utility
that we all get from using them,
it gives us the ability to trade, you know, to...
to buy and sell stuff on chain without having to use Fiat to do so.
So it's like an integral part of the utility of any smart contract ecosystem.
And, you know, you purchase it not with the intent of making any profit from it,
but with the intent of just using it for, you know, for buying other stuff.
So it is like I think...
If you look, I know the Howie test, we've sort of gone past that, but like looking at the Reeves test and family resemblance stuff, it's just hard to say that anyone is purchasing this stuff with any expectation other than just using it to buy other things in the same way that, you know, we purchase like Disneyland tokens or things like that that give us purchasing power in a given ecosystem.
The idea that you have to expect profit to be a security is an incorrect assumption.
A lot of people are making that assumption because they're familiar with Howie, but that's not, it's not the whole piece of it.
It's only one little piece of it.
That's the piece about investment contract.
There's about 30, 40 terms in this definition of a security.
A note, a stock, treasury stock, security, future-based swap, bond, defenders.
Bruce, can you give us examples of securities that are not, that period?
that people don't expect to return from that exists today?
Exactly what Rand is saying.
Money market funds.
You know, anything that's not an investment contract.
If something's not an investment contract,
so if you go in front of a judge,
And the SEC says something's a security.
The judge is going to look at this definition and say, what is the definition of the security?
Does it meet the definition?
And if it's something, I mean, you could have equity, for example, where you're not, well, that's a bad example.
Equity where you weren't expecting profit or some other thing where you're not expecting profit.
There's things that are designed to maintain level.
There's things where you're actually designed to lose money because they're a hedge versus something else.
You know, you're shorting something.
You know, there's all kinds of different things that are securities, but the main one that I think is relevant to this is if it is a group or index of other securities, always when you have a pool of other securities, including T-bills,
that's a security 100% always.
Because otherwise people could just put a bunch of securities in a thing and have a new vehicle and say, oh, this isn't a security.
So if it holds T-bills like a fund, you know, that's a security for sure.
And money market funds, you know, are very similar to stable coins for those people who know TradFi.
Every major firm, Fidelity BlackRock, all these guys have their own money market funds.
And those just stay, you know, right in, you know, basically like a cash equivalent and sometimes have a return.
Those are all securities.
But the definition is what matters.
Forget about Howie because you could just ignore the Howie piece.
Howie isn't part of the definition, by the way.
Investment contract is part of the definition.
And then a court case is.
said howie is how you define investment contract.
But you could just delete that piece out.
You could delete that piece from the definition.
You still have all these other.
So Bruce,
let me ask you another question.
And we need to get another space on this
with a bunch of attorneys, guys,
because this is pretty surprising to me.
To say that something could be a security
without an expectation of a return
is something that I didn't know
and something I've never heard mentioned.
But Bruce and Joshua,
my next question is,
if stables are considered securities,
what happens to crypto?
Yeah.
Well, it would be bad. I mean, in the United States, I think, I mean, you know, a lot of these things are surviving outside the United States.
The United States used to be the end-all be-all of the global economy and could kind of dictate things.
And I think a lot of the people in power are living on the fumes of the past and they think that they still have that kind of global power.
But, you know, things like XRP and stuff like that, even if they're banned in the U.S., they still have worked elsewhere.
So these large stables like Tether, I think, will still exist.
But...
You know, it's certainly a big problem.
You know, and one of the big problems, by the way, when something is a security, whether it's Ethereum or a stable coin, in the United States, it severely limits how people can use it.
You know, it limits wallets, it limits applicate.
You can't just custody it.
basically no firm can work with it unless they're a registered broker dealer.
So it's kind of the kiss of death in the United States, whether it's a stable or, you know,
Ethereum or anything like that. If they're named securities, it significantly limits the
You know, we should be talking about that with things like Cardano, too, because, you know, as you see as alleging Cardano is the security, that's, you know, very, very detrimental, at least in the U.S.
You know, I think they'll be fine outside the U.S.
But, you know, it does have pretty significant impact if something is named a security in the U.S.
Yeah.
Well, they said Cardano, Solana, they said Cardano, Solana, Cote, Matick, Mattick,
I mean, they've, they've, I think the message that they're saying is anything can be a security or certainly any proof of stake token can be a security.
I mean, they really cannot use it, right?
So if you have, for example, this Starbucks partnership with Polygon to use Polygon, if Polygon is a security, Starbucks would not be able to use Polygon, right?
It creates a huge problem.
The same thing goes.
The coin or the actual protocol, though, Josh.
But you need the, you need the, you know.
Right, well, I mean, you obviously need it for gas fees and such.
Yeah, you need the coin.
So you literally could not have any.
And keep in mind that there are non-financial uses of blockchains, right, that just become totally, it's a huge problem for layer ones.
But also it's a huge problem for stable coins because there are, you know, use cases of stable coins, which are, you know, obviously they're financial nature because they're actually using stable coins.
But there's no, you know.
it might not even be a trader in investment.
You might just want to use stable coin,
I don't know,
as an in-game currency to interact with something
or anything else, right?
Which becomes completely impossible
if they're named securities.
All right, guys, let me,
let me,
I want to ask,
go back to discussing the markets.
I don't know,
we've got Gareth and Patrick here.
Guys, can you,
if you don't mind,
can you give us an update on
where you think the market is at now?
And could we say that we've at least likely seen the bottom
and we could see a reversal either ongoing now
or in the near future?
In the meantime, before you guys go...
Sorry, just not clear, Mario, let's focus on Bitcoin, not...
all markets right now.
Oh, man.
I think it's great that we got Gareth here because Gareth was on my show yesterday.
And on the show yesterday, Gareth said that if we broke above that 27,500 level or whatever it was,
then you would turn more bullish.
And if we broke through 30,000, then you're going into full bull mode, bro.
And guys, and guys, before you respond, Scott said only do Bitcoin.
Listen to Scott, but if you want to be nice to me as well, just mention some else as well, at least ETH and maybe Sol and Polygon will be nice to get an update.
Yeah, I just didn't want to dive into Forex and stocks and, you know, gold.
Oh, yeah, just, I wanted, I wanted Bitcoin and maybe a bit of else.
Oh, perfect.
Thanks, thanks, guys, being nice.
And before you, Vinny, go ahead.
Yeah, right now, I was just saying, I said the same thing.
Once Bitcoin goes over 31K, basically, it's going to have a very big run until the next resistance level.
I'm not sure where that's going to be exactly, but.
Why 301K, Vinny?
Because that's, we've been range bound in that range for a while now, right?
So, the bottom of the range is like 25, the top of the range, like 30.5.
and there's been a lot of sideways accumulation.
And so the market's building up for a breakout through that.
Now, do I think it hits, it's a 50-50 at this point.
If it goes to 31, there's a break above, or does it go back down and revert down to, you know,
a higher low, maybe 26, maybe 27.
Let Gareth have a shot here because Gareth's actually been super,
Gareth for me is one of the most accurate chart to start there.
I get him on my show quite often.
He's called this rally very, very, very well.
He told the whole community is shorted 30,000.
Gareth, talk to me about what you see now,
specifically after we had a show yesterday.
Yeah, so like we said, you know, per that show, we did break through that 27,000 area,
and that's led to this bigger pump where you get short covering, right?
I mean, it was a bullish consolidation pattern down.
We broke out above 27,000.
And then the 31, 30 to 31 is a huge level.
So I'm bullish up to that level, and then I'm a skeptic, right?
So the way technical analysis works is that until proven, you know,
you remain a skeptic at supports, whether supports or resistance level. So the reason why 30 to 31,000
is so, so key for Bitcoin is it was basically the mid cycle 2021 lows. So if you remember,
in early 2021, we ran to 65,000. We then dipped and we kept on hammering on 30,000 over and over
again. And then we ran all the way to 69,000. So psychologically, we're now at the underbelly of what, what
was formerly support. It's now resistance. So that's the level that I'm watching for.
Now, if we do break through 30,000, 31,000 and we hold above it, then I got to say that, yeah,
I mean, I think at this point, the lows are in for the cycle at 15.7. A lot of people would argue
that they're already in. I just remain a skeptic because, again, I've seen...
rallies in bowl markets. Like, and I pointed this out, I think, yesterday on your show,
rant is that in 1929 to 1930, the markets fell 50%, and then we rallied back 50% before
dropping 80%. So we've had these type of big rallies, and you just have to let the markets
kind of prove themselves before you jump on board. The only other thing that I mentioned,
and I know I was supposed to 100% keep it to Bitcoin, I will mention alts,
I did take profits on a salana trade.
It ran into that $17 level.
So I was long Solana.
I'm still long Cardano as well as Maddoch looking for a little bit more upside.
Why, Gareth?
Why, Gareth?
Why?
Especially with the recent news, I'm surprised to hear that.
Yeah, so I bought them last week on the dip.
There was some technical levels.
And just keep in mind for everyone listening, I'm a shorter term trader.
So all I'm looking for is a little bit of a float up and then I'm grabbing my gains off.
For instance, on Solana, I banked 10% with members, right?
So I'm not looking for mega moves.
I'm not getting married to these things where I'm holding for a long period of time.
It's much more of a shorter time frame trade based on oversold into technical support.
And then also, if Bitcoin is going up, the idea is that Bitcoin can lift
all boats a little bit or rising tide lifts boats.
So those were just a couple little tidbits there.
So again,
keep in mind already out of Solana,
already booked that,
and then in the money on Cardano and Maddoch,
but looking for a little bit more here
as we approach that 30,000 level on Bitcoin.
Gareth, I just tweeted an ETH chart.
Mario, I don't know if you can just go into my profile.
It's the last tweet on my profile.
Yeah, I'll pin it.
It looks to me like ETH just broke out of a channel that it's been in for a long time.
I think we spoke about that channel yesterday on the show.
And I think, yeah, I mean, I'm very keen to hear from you if that channel has been broken out of it.
Let me take a look here at Eath here.
Bear with me.
By the way, while waiting, I don't trade.
Ran, I don't know how you have the guts to trade.
Scott, are you a trader before we give the micrath to garrath?
Yeah, I mean, that's all I did for a good decade, but now I don't as much because I have no time because I'm talking to you idiots all day.
We've saved you losing a lot of money, so you're welcome.
Thank you, Mario, thank you.
Hold on, which tweet you want me to pin, Ryan?
Hold on, I see, I see it didn't actually tweet.
I'm going to tweet it now quickly, but it shows the channel.
I'll quickly tweet it for you guys now, and then you can pin it.
In the meantime, while Ryan is pinning this,
and Gareth is researching something,
just a good reminder for the audience to check the pin tweets.
You have to scroll through them.
The last one, the latest one, is the sponsor, which is Planet, which I know we'll talk about at the end again.
So they're a sponsor of the show.
Should definitely check him out.
They've got a pretty exciting announcement coming up.
And the other two are for any project that wants to come on the show as a sponsor.
Or I'm trying to convince – we're going to do Shark Tank pitches as well if you want to join those pitches that we do.
Or you want to work with our incubator.
So email us in the pin tweets above.
In the meantime, Gareth, Ryan is tweeting his little prediction.
I'm tweeting.
He's tweeted it now.
Let me just, while Rand's tweeting that, just let me point out one more thing is that one thing that I'm finding intriguing today is that today we are seeing a big sell-off in Nvidia, in Tesla, in some of these big cap tech.
And we're seeing it's almost like there's a rotation of capital.
And it does make me wonder if there was money that was hiding in, you know, things other than crypto.
Yeah.
and going into these tech stocks, which have made all-time highs ridiculously.
And now you're seeing maybe some money flow back towards the crypto markets
as people gain confidence in crypto, again, specifically Bitcoin and ETH.
So, Gareth, just check the PIN tweet as well from Ryan, if we're seeing an ETH breakout.
I would like to get your thoughts.
It's treated by Rand, so definitely take it with a grain of salt, just a heads-up.
Yeah, so, so, Rand, your, your technical analysis is definitely getting much, much better.
Yes.
So, so you are above that trend line.
So the key on that, when I'm looking at that, is to say, okay, where does it
closed today, right? So intraday, these levels can get pierced all day long. It's where does it
close at the end of the day? If it closes above, for me, I never chase this stuff, right? If you look at
this, Ethereum's already up from $1,700 to $1850 right now. You know, as a technical trader, I'll never
jump on board. But what I do do is I make a.
mental note and I say, okay, let me watch to see, does it make a bull flag and stay above
this levels?
If it does, bull flag signal consolidation or re-energizing the move and then the next
leg I'll look to buy in.
So you have a potential breakout here, but again, let's see where it closes today.
But didn't you tell me, didn't you tell me that you always buy the breakup or the retest
or that child?
One of you told me that you wait for the breakout, don't buy in the channel.
If you get a breakout, you buy the breakup.
Yeah, I don't buy the breakouts.
I purposely have lost way too much money thinking it's a breakout and then getting
cooled.
So I instead look for, I say, okay, it's broken out and it's confirmed.
Now I watch for the pattern to form afterwards, which essentially think about this.
Like...
You run a marathon, that's your breakout.
You run that long of a marathon.
You can't get up and just run another marathon right afterwards.
You need to refuel your body.
You need to rest your body.
So when I look at charts, I look for that sideways chop, which is the refueling process before the next leg up.
And I'll buy that refueling process.
So, Gareth, before we got to Patrick to get his thoughts on everything on the markets,
everything you're saying excludes any black swan events.
And in the horizon, there's so many black swan events, it's really difficult to use technical analysis.
Yes.
Yeah, no, it's very hard.
When you get these type of crazy moves, especially in crypto,
crypto is such an emotional asset, right?
You know, the less institutional involvement, the more emotion because it's more retail
investors.
So people in crypto have to be ready for that, right?
I mean, you have to allocate the proper amounts in a portfolio knowing the volatility
you're going to be way more.
So what I mean by this, Garrett, is this the announcement, the SEC crackdown, the, what
was the thing, the Senate hearing, Scott, is that what you were referring to?
Yeah.
We saw the comments by the feds by Powell.
We've also got a lot of things happening in the background.
We saw the ETF applications.
There's so much shit is going on.
It's very difficult to use.
So I was like technical analysis plays a small role in what the markets are doing.
Is that a first thing?
I don't know, Mario, I will tell you, though.
Mario, it was all in the chart.
You know, this time, like, it went right down to 25,000 area, which...
pretty much everybody was watching and that's the got pushed there by the bad news and right
at the perfect timing the good news started to come in and that was the most predictable level
for a balance so you could make the argument listen i i love technical analysis but uh i have to fight back
yes i used to look at people like scott and think to myself i'm going to be honest scott like
i used to think to myself what a loser these guys yeah i still think that i agree i still think
it about myself it's fine hold on no no no they draw lines on charts
and they really think that the charts are going to come back their lines.
And you show, you take three chartists, you show them the same chart,
you'll get six different opinions about where the price is going to go.
And they'll always say this to you.
They'll always say to you, if it goes up, then X, and if it goes down, then Y.
Like, they can never tell you, listen, it's going up now.
They say, if it goes up, this is the level if it goes down.
But the truth is that since I then started following people like Gareth and I did Gareth's course and I did Sheldon and Sheldon's course and I've been following Scott's stuff.
Man, you can't argue that there is something in this technical analysis.
There is something, yeah.
Can I make a counter-argument?
So studies have shown that trading in general, I don't know about technical analysis, but
there's a lot of studies that show that trading just in general doesn't work unless you
have a whole team, you have algorithmic trading, or you have behind-the-scenes information.
Unless it's an inefficient market and crypto today is it still at least Bitcoin is it still an inefficient market as it was before because out coins are and there's a good argument to be made there
But Bitcoin is becoming especially with institutions coming in is becoming harder and harder and gareth
I say this with all respect because obviously you're making a lot more money than me I don't even trade
But it's just becoming harder and harder for technical analysis to work and that will only become harder as institutions come in more and more
more
Yes, so I would just counter that and say that I've actually found it to be more of an irrational market.
Even the stock market's gotten more irrational because you've had more of these individuals ever since 2020 with COVID.
People have just retail has just flooded in.
And that's actually been dangerous for traders too because it creates these kind of super spikes.
We saw GameStop AMC.
We saw the crypto, you know, all coins in 2021 and Bitcoin.
And so you have to be actually very, very careful because things do get irrational very, very quickly.
Right.
on a trading basis. So I would just counter that, you know, my bread and butter is stocks and
commodities. And I use technical analysis every day. And weirdly enough, it works. And I'll say this
last little bit here. The reason why technical analysis to me works on all asset classes that have
volume is because you're not trading the asset. What you're doing is you're analyzing human psychology.
Remember, every market is made up of millions of.
people and emotion doesn't change.
5,000 years ago, people were still fearful and greedy just like they are today.
And that's really what you're trading when you're trading charts.
Yeah, I kind of misspoke.
Before going to Patrick, I misspoke.
The more efficient markets become, the more likely technical analysis going to work because
then you've got enough data, you've got enough traders where herd mentality works.
So if anything, maybe technical analysis didn't work before because crypto was too inefficient.
But trading in general, because I've had many discussions on this,
trading in general tends to work in inefficient markets
because you've just got the opportunity to know information before others.
The competition is limited.
Or have information that others don't have,
and whether that's right or wrong, it's your problem.
Now, I'm a horrible trader.
Even though I used to have a crypto punk, I'm very...
you know, very, very traditional.
But let's get a quick update from Patrick on the markets.
And in the meantime, just for the audience, let us know,
do you like those technical analysis updates?
I actually enjoy them.
And even though I'm talking against them,
I follow Gareth's advice.
So I'll probably be buying into the market when we break through 31K,
even though I'm a horrible trader.
But Patrick, I would love to get your thoughts on the markets.
Hi, guys. Yes, well, look, Gareth, I've had him on my show a couple of times, and a lot of what he says, it's true. It's like everybody, that's why I want to ask all you, you're the Bitcoin guys, look.
Is it, is the price going up in Bitcoin for you justifying your thesis?
Oh, the price going up, my thesis is right.
And let's say Bitcoin goes to 5,000.
Is that going to change your thesis about the utility of Bitcoin for like whatever you decided is?
Like, I'm buying Bitcoin because it's the new money, whatever.
Right.
That's something people have, it's confusing.
I listen to the guys, the fundamentalist of Bitcoin has to go the moon,
or it's the next best thing.
And then after that, there's the traders of Bitcoin.
So often it gets confusing.
People think that thesis is,
The price has to go up to justify a thesis, but at the end of the day, it all depends.
What do you want to do?
Do you want to be right on your thesis or you want to make money?
So if you want to be right, you want to write a trend, right?
Look, I nested some charts, but I guess they got removed from the nest, so I put them in the tweet.
Yeah, put them in a tree and just, we can put it above this in one tweet.
It would be good, Patrick.
Okay, good.
Well, I put them in the Twitter space tweet.
I don't know if somebody could grab them and nest them.
Yeah, I'll do it now for you, Patrick.
So look, I like Gareth's on a smaller timeframes and I'm a big macro guy, you know.
And this is what I tell often when I get into hiccups with Bitcoin guys and I say, look, you got to be careful.
Everybody says there's a halving cycle.
Every four years, Bitcoin, you know, it does its thing.
But guys, you got to zoom out.
We've been, the stock market has been there for 100 years.
Yeah.
And you'll see their cycles.
There's bull cycles and growth stocks.
It goes up from 1980 all the way to 2000.
Then they hibernate for 10 years.
And then after that, other asset classes take over, right?
Whatever commodity, et cetera.
So you've got to be really careful thinking that your shorter-term cycles,
you're having cycles, will behave the same as those cycles go on.
Because if a microtitre wave, so the big tsunami wave of macro-tile
capital flow shifts and because there's too much inflation, margins to contract, P to E contraction,
all that stuff, then you might not have the results that you've had previously in your cycles.
But that said, I put a quarterly chart of Bitcoin quarterly guys, reduce a maximum amount of noise.
And on a small timeframes, yes, I know you guys are looking at 31K, which is going to be some good resistance.
But the quarterly defined breakdown for Bitcoin was at 35K.
So for me, I like to see the price on a quarterly basis close, close above 35,000, either Q1, Q2, Q, whatever, one of those Q4s.
But look what happens after, guys.
Once you've done that, you're above the wall.
In the next year, there's probably going to be a retest of that breakout line from above.
So while everybody's going to be buying above 35K, you got to be careful because after that, you could be going sideways for a year, two years.
Right.
As a macro like chart trader, I want to wait until all that volatility moves away.
I want...
Let that play out, get a higher low, and then once I get a beautiful breakout line, and I'm probably, if I ever I go back in Bitcoin, it's probably going to be above 45,000 easy.
I want to ride that crazy move.
Remember you guys, that crazy move where all the lasers rise started coming out when I think it was in 2020, when we broke out above 10,000 and we rocketed up to 65,000?
That's what I want to play.
Right now, it's to look, and drop, when you drop 70% from a peak, a blow off top peak, there's damage, guys.
You don't recuperate like in a V shape.
You're going to go up, then it's going to go down.
And once that settles, then we're ready to rock it upwards.
All right, well, I don't know whether to be bullish or bearish.
I'm generally bullish because I just don't see any more.
I don't know what more blood could be in the waters.
Dave, Dave, just trying to jump in.
Go ahead, Dave.
And then right after this, Scott, I really want to talk about the ETS that launched.
That was meant to be the main point of discussion.
We haven't even mentioned it here, Scott.
Oh, yeah, those.
Yeah.
Right.
Yeah, the things that matter, maybe more than charts and nice pictures that you like to do.
Dave.
I think it's really important to understand context of charts, right?
You know, I think, look, I've studied, I've run stat-arb desks for 15 years, and pure charting doesn't work.
But what does work are people like Garrett who can put charts and what's going on in context of markets and correlation among assets, all sorts of things.
Last year's price action was the result of forced selling people who had many people who had bought with conviction and put their place, put their Bitcoin on the wrong platforms and those and Bitcoin as collateral had to get sold.
And I use that word had to because that matters. Every single one of them is now mentally short.
until they buy back in. And it is really important to understand that context. So, you know,
there's there's huge air pockets in the chart up to the all-time highs. Yes, of course,
technical traders are going to trade around it. But remember, something really, really important here.
The amount of Bitcoin on exchange has been coming down. The amount of percentage of long-term
holders has been going up basically for a year now.
pretty close, you know, pretty much after or that.
So that context needs to be considered.
All right, Dave, Dave, I'll just summarize, before I go to Vinny, I'll just summarize what he said.
Technical analysis does not work, but I like Gareth a lot to say that.
So you're welcome, David.
No, no, that's not true.
I'm joking.
I'm joking.
It's a tool like any other tool.
I agree.
I agree.
Sorry, I'll let you finish off and then before I go to Vinny.
Sorry, Dave.
No, no, I think I was finished.
I think the bottom line is that you need to consider the context of where people sold.
I mean, resistance works because people, you know, of what happened.
But forced sellers are different.
than non-for-sellers.
You had to sell Bitcoin
because it was the only thing.
That created a lot of the price.
I think the way I'd say it
and then Vinie,
I've got a question for you
just about EDX before we go to the ETF.
Scott wants to talk about the ETFs.
I want to talk about EDX.
I'll talk about EDX.
The thing I want to say is that
there is a lot more important factors
to determine whether you should enter the market or not.
Regulatory action that we're seeing now.
Scams.
The list goes on.
But then the question that I have
Sorry, the point I have is that technical analysis comes in for timing after you make a decision based on other factors.
Is that a phase statement?
Yeah, it's a risk management tool, right?
And so that's why I always laugh at people argue about their strategies or if they draw...
Supply and demand, Ichimoku cloud, descending lines, it doesn't really matter.
It's your way of managing risk.
You can read tea leaves and, you know, piss on a unicorn if that gives you your interest.
As long as it gives you a definable area to set a stop loss and to take profit and to size your position, that's what it's used for.
It's a risk management tool.
Did you just say something tea leaves and piss on a unicorn, draw on tea leaves?
Yeah, I mean, you can use whatever strategy.
I don't know what you guys do over there.
Piss on unicorns, man.
That's the comparison you've made.
But Scott, why?
So we were talking to me in the background, and I'd like to get your thoughts on it.
We're talking in the background on EDX, and you said, like, this has been covered already.
I think we should focus on the new ETFs.
But I made the same with that I just don't think it's given enough attention.
I think it's really, really big news that is underrated by the markets.
Do you agree or disagree with that statement?
I definitely agree with that statement.
It's just that it's been news that's been percolating, I think, since last September and been talked about last November,
something that was covered.
And it's just the fact that it's effectively starting to launch now.
But I think.
It's huge because it's obviously Fidelity, Schwab, and Citadel securities.
And this is really the first time you're hearing Citadel.
We've heard Fidelity, obviously, they've been mining since 2014 or 15.
Schwab, we've heard the name Citadel is massive.
When you put Citadel and BlackRock together in the same week of news,
it's pretty astounding that you're talking about the Bitcoin space.
But I find really interesting about the EDX markets is that A, they're
having four assets available, which is Bitcoin, Ethereum, Lightcoin, Bitcoin Cash.
I always laughed that Lightcoin and Bitcoin Cash slide in because they're effectively not deemed security,
so they just go ahead and throw them in there as if anybody cares about Bitcoin Cash.
But, and the fact that it's going to be non-custodial, I think that's the most interesting part, is that they're basically saying that it's a matching engine peer to peer from what I can read into, and they're not going to custody any coins and are not working with a third-party custodian to do it.
So I don't know if anybody's looked deeper into that.
You've also mentioned Fidelity. You can kind of use that to pivot to the rumors about Fidelity acquiring grayscale.
Am I right in saying that's the rumor that's been circulating?
It is a rumor that's been circulating.
We had, I think his name's Andrew on the other day, and he was the one who had tweeted about it.
We can't really get much...
Okay, I can just tell you that I've spoken to four people at Fidelity,
and I wouldn't expect otherwise, but they've all been very dismissive
and sort of pissed off that that rumor is going around, to be quite honest.
But that could mean it's because...
But that'd be...
Exactly. Exactly.
Being pissed off is a good thing.
Right.
So I don't know necessarily how to read that, but listen...
The bottom line is Fidelity has been the most bullish institution in the crypto space, period, if we're talking about large institutions.
Like I said, they've been mining since the early years.
They understand this space.
They've been involved in almost any way, shape, or form.
They allow their clients to buy and sell the assets.
So that wouldn't be a surprise.
But quietly, while we've been talking about what Fidelity is going to do,
We saw Wisdom Tree file for an ETF, Invesco again, bitwise refile.
I mean, everyone's getting in line here, obviously, now that they see BlackRock.
The question is, do they know something that's up, or is it just, oh, shit, black rocks here?
We've got to get in line for when these start to get approved.
And that is a tougher question.
By the way, Bitcoin just hit $30,000, at least temporarily.
Holy shit.
Did it just hit $30,000?
I don't even look at the markets.
I thought we're still back at, like, hitting 20.
We just hit 29K or something.
Maybe give us...
Hold on. How much has it risen in the last 24 hours?
And what are the else looking like?
Yeah, let me take a quick look, honestly,
because I just happen to see it flash by on our...
What does that...
Oh, yeah, yeah, Gareth, what does that mean?
Where is Gareth and Patrick just dropped off?
But Gareth, what does that mean that Bitcoin hit it 30K?
Are you more and more bullish?
Is that a big thing?
You just mentioned 30 to 31K.
Well, we just broke through 30K.
Is that barely just broke?
So I know it's too early, but is that...
Should we be celebrating? Should people in the comments be going, yay, and putting these emojis of that stupid rocket going to the moon?
Gareth?
Don't leave me now.
Gareth, is our rocket going to the moon, Gareth?
Gareth, our bags are gonna pump.
Should I enter the market, Gareth?
Did Gareth just say buy all of the alt coins?
What did he say?
Yeah, I think so.
He said, buy all the meme coins if Bitcoin go across 30K.
If you want to correct that, Gareth, you've got to be quick and unmute.
That's how I baked Scott.
That's usually works.
I think he said something about Pepe, I'm not sure.
Go ahead.
head.
Scott is joking.
We all don't hold Pepe.
Trust me, man.
You don't want to mention a meme called his name.
You'll get a lot of hate if it pumps.
So we don't,
none of us on Pepe and Gareth did not mention Pepe.
You're welcome, Scott.
I'm covering your ass again.
But Scott, give us a quick market update.
How much do you?
What's the market response to last 24 hours?
And then if Gareth doesn't jump in,
we'll try to get ran to give us his thoughts.
If that's massive news if we broke through 30K.
But go ahead, Scott.
I'm seeing Bitcoin now, 29876, but I'm just checking quickly up about 12% in the last 24 hours, which is pretty major.
And Ethereum now...
lagging pretty hard 1848 up 7.35% in the same amount of time.
So obviously all coins underperforming Bitcoin, which I think is largely expected.
What about the rest of the else?
What about the rest of the else?
All the ones that were deemed the security by the SEC, do you want to give us a cut down to those?
I got a, I can't at this exact moment.
If you give me one minute, I'll be able to pull that up.
I just wasn't, I wasn't ready for it, man.
Let me pull up coin market account.
It is what it is.
Let me get,
let me get, sorry,
Ryan, if Gareth is not here, are you there?
Look at all the technical guys suddenly are freaking out.
Suddenly they can't add you, suddenly is glitching for them.
Yeah, we're not the other...
I'm here. I'm here. What was the question?
By the way you told everyone to buy Pepe while you were gone.
Good job. No, no, he did not.
Everyone, Scott, stop it, man.
It's going to stop, bro.
But Gareth, so did Bitcoin just break 30K or was that not true, Scott?
It tapped it depending on the exchange you look at...
All right, so...
It's the same thing that happened at 29 before it broke through.
So, Gareth, if we actually break 30K, I know you mentioned 30 to 31K, what do you need to start becoming more and more bullish?
Like, does it need to break it and stay there for a certain period of time?
How important is 30K, not 31K, and how long do you need to see it above 30K?
Yeah, so the high from the previous move up was 31K. So you really want to see it get above 31K. And then you need to see a daily close there. And really what you want to see is even multiple days after it's just staying there. It doesn't have to continue up. In fact, it would be better if it just goes sideways. That would create that bullish flag pattern that would then dictate that there's not a massive amount of sellers. So when a bull flag forms after a move, what's happening is that
There are sellers right at that level because it is a level where it's had previous resistance, but there's an equal amount of buyers.
And that's the beautiful thing about it.
When you can have a move up like Bitcoin has had and you have an equal amount of buyers still that are negating the sellers, that's a very, very bullish thing for the next wave of sellers to overpower those sellers and charge it up.
And charge it up, can you repeat again, where do you see Bitcoin?
If we break 31K, close above 31K, assuming no Black Swan events,
could we see the beginning of a new bull run and how would the next two years look like?
Again, assuming no...
And we could kind of wrap the space on this final beautiful point
that Gareth would give us on the markets.
And before that, let me just remind everyone...
The pin tweets above. We do have our sponsor. We're now starting to accept sponsors.
So the first sponsor is a project that's going to have a pretty big announcement coming in.
The project's called Planet. I'll pin it above again. You should definitely check him out.
And they have the goat. We're calling it the goat because Rand is not allowing us.
I'll be announcing who's going to be their sponsor, not advisor, but the face of the project.
so they teamed up with a global superstar.
So you definitely check out Planet.
That's number one.
Number two, if you do want to shout out on the show,
or more importantly, what I really like,
if you want to be incubated by us and have us,
help you out with whatever you need to build your project.
We're doing this since 2017.
Hit us up as well.
The pin tweets are above with the emails,
or you could just DM any of the hosts that you see.
And lastly, we'll see you again tomorrow after Gareth gives us a final quick update.
I gave you a chance.
I gave you a chance, man.
You can't just...
Come on, come on, come on.
Yes, sir.
Before you let Gareth finish this, because we've got to do the right thing and let Gareth summarize this, but just give us finishing thoughts.
But am I allowed to show one of our own products that I'm very excited about one of the...
Of, yeah, man, of course.
Go ahead.
And I will not end the space as you shill it, I promise.
Here we go.
Here we go.
Five, four, three, two.
Oh, man.
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So people are chatting about why the bubbles are red and green.
Now, we are running a promotion for the next 24 hours.
Anybody that downloads the apps and is caught speaking in the bubbles can stand a chance to win $1,000 and $2,000 if you have been speaking in the bubbles.
I just sent you a tweet, if you could pin it.
It's also a tweet that's pinned.
I've already pinned it
It's pinned on your profile
I've already pinned it just now
It's a minute ago
To get this community talking in the banter bubbles as well
We really believe it
That's the best way to drive the community
So thank you
And I think now we should hand over to Gareth
To give us some closing thoughts
Right Mara
Should I rant
How close are you to Gareth?
You know what I mean
How close are you to Gareth?
Be honest
Garrette's family bro
Garrett is part of it
He's a...
Are you sure?
Are you sure, yeah?
La Familia la familia
All right. Well, based on your feedback just now, I will give Gareth the final word. Scott, do you mind if I give Gareth the final word? Just want to see if you know what I mean. Can Gareth give us final feedback?
All right. Scott and Rand approved this. Please, final words on the market. Everyone's waiting for it or yours.
All right. All right. Final words. Watch 31,000 on Bitcoin.
