Cake Space

Recorded: March 13, 2024 Duration: 0:45:48

Player

Snippets

Okay everyone, let's get going, I had to use my personal account because the cake slash
bake account somehow couldn't start to space.
So I hope you can hear me on this one and we are working.
I think the bake cake account should also join unless there's any issues.
Ah great, now we have another space I think on the cake account suddenly.
Okay, I just need to tell the team that we're using my personal account.
We are using the personal account on it already.
Okay, yeah okay, because otherwise we have to switch again, they fixed it now.
Okay, then let's use that as the space to drop in here and then let's get going.
Okay, Fabio, you ready? Go live on YouTube as well? Awesome, great.
Three, two, one.
LFG, let's go.
Welcome, happy Wednesday everyone, happy March 13th.
I hope you're doing well.
We have an exciting space ahead of us, exciting YouTube live, markets are pumping.
So there's always something nice to discuss.
We're going to talk obviously Bitcoin ETF, my goodness.
We're going to talk Ethereum.
We have the Koon upgrade today.
We're going to talk Eva Chain.
We're going to talk updates on the bake site and we're going to talk inflation numbers.
Quite a bit of a surprise there yesterday.
What else have I prepared?
Ah, that's it.
I think I prepared a couple of slides just a little bit and then yeah, we get going.
If you're joining us on Twitter or X, then we're doing this as an exception on my personal account
because we were struggling getting live on the big account and yeah, at some point it
was working actually, but then we were already going on here.
So as an exception, it's on my personal account.
With that, let's get going.
Stor, Fabio, how are you doing?
How is everything on your site?
Give us a bit of the big picture overview.
Well, another week, another all-time high.
My goodness.
Routine in general is usually not so nice.
In this case, I'm taking it.
It definitely feels still.
It feels a bit weird that it is just jogging along like a staircase up, up, up, up, up.
And I just see on YouTube, you opened the ETFs influence with.
And if I just look at, I really think the inflows right now on the ETF are such a good indicator.
If I just tell you we just had the strongest net inflow ever on yesterday, over a billion
dollars net inflow, then what would you expect price-wise?
And yeah, I think that's why it's so beautiful.
Let me ask you a question here because I saw many people reporting this or covering this,
and they call this the T plus one.
So if inflows yesterday were extremely high, that means that after business hours, whatever OTC
or on the market that these issuers like BlackRock or Fidelity or whatever, they need to buy these
inflows the next day.
So meaning that yesterday's inflows is today's price discovery or price action.
Is that true?
I don't know.
I'm not the expert on this.
I listened to a podcast where they discussed this.
And to me, what it sounded like was that there's actually quite some flexibility from the ETF
issuers in what they can, how they can buy it.
I'm not an expert.
It's very interesting.
I was on a mastermind call today afternoon where there were a bunch of high net worth
individuals in there.
And then we actually agreed on trying to get one or two ETF experts on to understand this
very clearly on how fast do those net flows actually kind of have to be settled?
Because you hear a lot of different ideas.
You hear things where they are sometimes allowed to front run this.
They are allowed to only buy things on the same day.
Some are saying you are allowed to do this up to T plus two, so up to two days.
So I don't know.
I don't know what's fact and what's fiction here.
It's definitely okay.
So if the inflows would be correlated directly and we had the biggest inflow day yesterday,
that would mean we would have a big price increase today.
That would be my logical conclusion.
I mean, I agree.
I mean, it's it's it's bonkers.
I mean, I mean, look, I look at this chart.
This is the Bitcoin monthly chart.
It does look a little bit scary.
I want to be very clear on this.
But I mean, if you're watching this on YouTube, then you can see the chart on Twitter.
You I mean, just imagine.
Yeah, one got candle after another.
NGU only up.
I mean, it does look a bit scary.
A couple of points here, right?
If we are looking at the averages, then we're actually below average in the cycle so far.
There's also interesting.
So we would actually if we would be on the lower bound of the other cycles,
actually, Bitcoin would be at a hundred thousand right now.
So I mean, that's obviously the kind of counter a bit.
The other part, if we look at bubble like territory, we're definitely in some bubble territory.
I mean, we are in this kind of bubble risk territory from like April-ish 2021.
So when Coinbase went public three years ago, a similar kind of territory here.
I want to be clear.
Bubbles are not always bad.
You just have to time them well.
But at the end, bubbles can be very interesting.
So yeah, I don't know what what other thoughts you have on Bitcoin at the moment.
Who's buying?
Let's ask.
Who's buying?
How much longer are these people buying?
Is this the halfing hype?
Is this completely independent of the halfing hype?
What is this?
So I have a few thoughts.
Like if you look at the charts and you especially in the monthly and you see these huge candlesticks
to the upside and it's definitely going hockey stick.
It's definitely going parabolic.
Everybody can see that.
But then again, we had somewhat of a it's not really a black swan event,
maybe a white one, whatever.
The ETF is huge.
And we don't really have a lot of historic precedents when it comes to ETFs on a new
asset class.
Like the best comparison would be gold in 2003.
And we had, I think, eight years of a bull run afterwards for gold and like almost a 10x in price.
And with Bitcoin, it's like all the models tend to break.
We never had an all-time high before the halfing.
Now we do.
And the halfing is built to come.
And usually takes about six months for the halfing to really take full effect.
And there is like two or three things that excite me.
So if I look at on-chain metrics, I actually mentioned this last week in a company-wide
I pulled up some glass note charts to illustrate what's going on.
And there are a few things that are super interesting.
So the build-up before the bull run, until October last year, there was two things that
dominated.
So one thing was Binance Futures were by far the biggest future platform to trade Bitcoin.
And the Shrimps, so everybody that is DCAing and has less than one Bitcoin on-chain,
they were dominating.
These were the people that were buying until then.
And then in October, it kind of switched around.
And Binance lost.
It's not monopoly, but it's market dominance when it comes to future contracts.
And now it's just CME.
It's just Chicago Merchantile Exchange.
And of course, these are the big players, smart money, the institutions, and largely
US-driven.
And also, it's no longer the Shrimps.
It's really on-chain addresses, 10 Bitcoin and above, that are really driving price
And looking forward from here, there is one thing that excites me is, so registered
investment advisor bureaus.
These are, it's a US thing, but these are usually family offices.
Small institutions, small companies are funneling their treasuries or their family wealth
via these offices.
And there is a rule that they are not allowed to trade or buy any assets within the first
90 days, which makes the first day that these offices can buy 10th of April, like
right next to the half thing.
And so we still have these two things coming up, which makes me extraordinary bullish.
And if we look at the ETF infos, there doesn't seem to be an end in sight.
It's just more and more and more.
So these things make me extremely bullish.
In the second part of this conversation today, we might be able to look into some of the
macro factors, like inflation numbers, unemployment, and of course, the Fed.
And I would say these are more the things that are on the bearish side.
The macro is, for me, at least, is currently more bearish than bullish.
And but Bitcoin seems right now, it doesn't seem to care.
So who is buying?
We briefly talked about this last week, that the theory around Jeff Bezos, that he was
spotted on a boat with sailor and that he has been selling like four or five or six
billion of his of Amazon stock.
You had not book a lay the president of El Salvador meeting up with some Saudis that
went viral on social media if they're buying or not.
I don't know.
And then you have the theory, the Snowden theory.
And Grant Cardone mentioned that as well, that nation state will be public knowledge
that the nation state is currently accumulating or was accumulating for some time.
Yeah, that would be the free balls or the free things that would throw into the room.
What who do you think is currently buying?
Who is driving this price?
Actually, besides failure, of course.
Dude, I really don't know.
I mean, that was something I mentioned a couple of times.
I used to know quite well, because I was really well connected with some of the
other platforms.
And it was easy to kind of exchange ideas and say, without kind of revealing
illegal information that you don't want to share.
It was still possible to kind of understand, okay, like who's buying, who's
And honestly, now there's only two firms that know.
One is BlackRock and the other one is Fidelity.
And they really know.
I mean, everyone else is just kind of small shrimp now in comparison.
And it's like almost impossible to know.
Like whoever I talk to now, they all saying, hey, they are
market takers.
They are not making the market anymore.
And in the past, it was like Coinbase actually making the market or people
on Coinbase, people on Binance making the market, people on Croc making
the market.
Now they are just takers.
They are just kind of filling the art flow.
And it's just completely different than how it was before.
And it's just it's really crazy to kind of consider that.
I have two interesting points.
Maybe one just maybe the first one.
What do you think?
So micro strategies among the 500 biggest companies in market cap in
the United States, which would mean that at some point, an inclusion
S&P 500 could be possible would be suitable.
Of course, with Tesla, I think it took two years until they
It's not only market cap.
There are other conditions as well.
I think the gap accounting has to have certain requirements and so on.
So there are certain other requirements as well.
It's not just market cap.
Yeah, I would be pretty sure that sailor did his accounting
the right way.
But I don't I don't really know.
But what a potential inclusion.
A lot of people on Twitter, they talk about this being a cheat code,
basically, you know, getting passive flows from the S&P 500
buying up micro strategy stock, giving sailor the opportunity to dilute
the stock and buy more Bitcoin.
And basically, yeah, it's basically somewhat of a cheat code.
Getting free capital of all this is not dumb money.
ETF money is not dumb money, but it's just, I don't know, fundamental.
Like ETFs are the thing.
Everybody noticed that his or her purchasing power is disappearing.
And the best way to counter that is bigger ETF like the S&P 500.
So everybody's doing it.
And this would be crazy for micro strategy and sailor if they
actually get into the S&P 500 and can profit off these passive flows.
And I would even make the argument that there will be others
that are going to try the display book.
I mean, and it's going to work until it doesn't work.
I mean, at the end, right.
I mean, the question is, if this is the only thing that's going to drive
the Bitcoin price up, and that's what I always kind of criticized.
I mean, that's what kind of looking back 10 years ago, that's always what hurt
me a bit in the heart was that the Bitcoin ETF is the exact opposite
of why I bought my first Bitcoins.
It's the exact opposite.
So that's the only thing.
I mean, obviously, I agree with everyone.
Without that, the price wouldn't do what it's doing right now.
A hundred percent, but not a single person, at least in my opinion,
that buys the Bitcoin ETF, buys Bitcoin utility.
They only buy it for numbers going up.
And so that's just my only criticism.
And so if that at some point doesn't work, then it could reverse
relatively aggressively.
So I think we just have to be aware of that.
But I agree with you until this potentially reverses, takes quite
a while, and we may see half a million dollars or a million dollars Bitcoin price.
It really does seem to be a bit different this time around.
This time is different.
Like, this time is different.
Famous last words.
I recently saw two interesting statements, and I just want to throw them
out maybe for the audience to think about them.
And I also would be interested in your take.
So there was a guy on Twitter, a very small account,
not an influencer or anybody that made a statement.
So right now, if you were just starting out and you're being in,
like, let's say middle class, and you have maybe a thousand dollars a
month of spare income to DCA your way into Bitcoin.
If you start now, you will never be a whole coiner.
You will never reach the goal of owning one Bitcoin if you,
because right now it would take you almost two years
to fully accumulate the Bitcoin, and price seems to be just running away from you.
This was one statement.
And then the top comment underneath is the complete opposite,
where somebody said, so if you're the full coiner now,
and you're selling one thousand a month, you're never going to deplete your coin.
What would you say to those statements?
Is there any difference to it?
Both are wrong.
I mean, it's impossible to be able to sell a thousand dollars out of a Bitcoin
for the rest of your life.
That's not going to happen.
And so that also means going in with a thousand dollars,
never going to make your whole corner.
I think both are wrong.
There will always be this flattening off.
It will happen.
Whether this happens next year, this year, in five years,
at some point it will.
Like, the Bitcoin is not going to be the thing that's going to,
I don't know, control 99% of the net worth of the world.
That's not going to happen, right?
It's going to be significant, but it's not going to be that.
So that's just this.
To me, that's the same crap as when people say that,
I don't know, XRP is going to hit a thousand dollars.
So what is their favorite number?
Like five hundred eighty six dollars.
It's the same thing.
It's not going to happen, right?
So, I mean, it's the same thing here.
And to me, it's also why you need to be a whole coin.
Like it's just a random amount of a hundred million satoshis
that gets put together for a whole coin.
But it's actually irrelevant.
At some point, I really hope we calculate at least a million Bitcoin
or in, yeah, like in the thousands of a Bitcoin or,
or I don't know, at some point, probably in sets.
But that's still going to take a while
because at the moment, that's really not comfortable, convenient.
But, yeah, I think if once, let's say Bitcoin gets close to a hundred million,
to a million dollars, then counting in a hundred millions would be a cent.
And then it's fine.
So if we get close to that, suddenly we have, I think, even 0.1 cent.
So then we're talking about a hundred thousand, right?
I mean, why not?
That's doable.
I think then suddenly, like a sat being worth 0.1 cent, that's okay.
We get there.
So, yeah.
Exciting.
What about, my question was, what about ETH?
But you go first.
Yeah, I wanted to bridge into ETH or altcoins as well.
So ETH has definitely been performing quite well this year,
especially if you consider that Bitcoin dominance is holding up.
Pretty stable at around 53%.
It really gave Indo in the last week.
In the last week, Bitcoin dominance really lost.
Just a lot of alt-pumping.
Yeah, like the Bitcoin, the high on Bitcoin dominance was end of February.
February 28 at 55%.
And now we are at 54%.
I mean, it definitely had a reversal, yeah.
But I mean, I agree.
Ethereum has done really well.
Better than most altcoins.
So a friend of mine actually sent me a screenshot earlier,
which they kind of list how far away from all-time highs altcoins are.
And there's like a list of 30 altcoins.
And you have coins like, for example, XRP, Cardano, Doge.
They're all more than 300% away from their altcoins.
They would need to do a 300% increase until they reach their altcoins.
The same goes for Litecoin.
And you have others like, I don't know, internet computer or Filecoin that needs
2,000 or even 4,000% until they would reach their altcoins.
So it's definitely, we're not yet in this extensive alt season,
everything up, everything breaks, it's all-time highs.
It's very, it's only pockets of things that are currently really
outperforming or pumping.
And I would say it's mainly Bitcoin, Ethereum, and you have some mean coins,
especially newer ones that are outperforming or pumping like crazy.
And of course, Ethereum has two things.
One is today's hard forks.
I don't know how to pronounce it.
Dan Koon?
Dan Koon, yeah.
Dan Koon.
Which is happening today.
I don't even know exactly what it does.
In the main thing, I can quickly explain it.
The main thing is that concept of blob space.
And the idea here is that all the rollups, layer 2s and so on,
don't compete with traditional transactions to store into the Ethereum blockchain.
And that's going to just bring a lot of transaction fee efficiency into that entire space.
The concept of data availability is really going to get improved,
especially for the entire fee market.
And so that's why everyone is just excited,
because it's going to help a bit with the scalability for Ethereum.
That should happen today.
So also on big, we're going to be offline with Ethereum.
I don't know.
I think from 7pm onwards, Singapore time, I'm not exactly sure, 9pm.
But soon, we're going to be offline soon with Ethereum,
almost I think for an entire day, but just for the safety so that there's no...
So just please, if you are using Ethereum on big, don't panic.
I think most platforms actually go offline with Ethereum over those hours
just to play it safe.
So maybe this is just me, but on hard work days, I don't touch anything.
So I don't make any transactions on Ethereum, nothing,
until I read several statements that this is completely resolved
and everything went fine.
Don't use bridges.
Don't deposit.
Don't withdraw.
Don't make transactions.
It shouldn't be that difficult to stay away from.
Trust me, I think it's like always this day.
And then that's the day that everyone suddenly feels like,
I need to do it today.
Like today or never.
It's always...
Like you say, it shouldn't be so difficult.
You have 12 hours.
Don't touch your ears for 12 hours.
And everyone's like, no, it's in those 12 hours.
I need to do everything in those 12 hours.
And of course, after today's hard work, we have another...
Potential?
Two, three months.
Potential through three months for an ETF.
You pulled up a tweet from Eric the Bloomberg analyst
that also covered the Bitcoin ETF extensively.
And they say their approval rate or their approval odds
are down to 35%.
Should I just read the tweet?
Yeah, fine.
Read it out.
I think it's good.
So Eric says, yeah, our odds of Ethereum ETF approval
by May deadline are down to 35%.
I get all the reasons why they should approve it
and personally believe they should.
But all the signs slash sources that were making us bullish,
2.5 million out for Bitcoin spot are not there this time.
Note, 35% isn't zero, still possible.
And long-term, we think it will happen.
So basically, he's expecting a later point this year.
Altcoins, I don't know.
Defetching update at that point, I think makes sense
before we switch to some other stuff.
So maybe Altcoins in general, we briefly touched on that
and their performance.
We also, the last two weeks, we briefly touched on this.
Now, the time to rotate capital.
And maybe before we go into DeFi chain,
just one thing or one point there.
If this time is not different, yes.
Right now, could be a potential time to rotate capital.
At least historically, when Bitcoin broke its alt times highs,
we saw Altcoins really taking up speed
and starting to outperform.
But we don't really know the same thing
if a broad altcoin season is going to happen this time
because most of the capital comes into an ETF
and is not going to rotate down the risk curve.
They're not signing up for Coinbase
or for a bigger exchange
and kind of rotating their capital down the risk curve.
Of course, you still have people that came out
of the class of 2021, class of 2017
that kind of know these capital rotations
and that are already kind of playing that,
front running that, expecting that.
And yes, sure, it can be possible,
but we might need to have a little bit more data
before you can really make an educated guess.
On DeFi chain specifically,
so we saw, we had that DFIP,
DeFi chain improvement proposal
that established a dynamic fee for the new token system
for all the assets, real world assets
that are traded on DeFi chain.
And it definitely helped to stabilize the USD price,
which is currently at 70 cents
and definitely kind of washed out short term speculators.
We still need a bit of time to kind of see follow through
and I would say it's already a success
that the price seems far more stable.
We see more buying volume than selling volume,
which is great.
And we have, so one important thing that I wanna mention
and probably the most important update here
is there have been major efforts
in bringing transparency through all things development
and engineering on DeFi chain.
And two of the main factors are
there is a public Trello board
where you can see each and every issue,
roadmap, goal, thing that has been worked on,
updated in real time at completely public,
where it can hop in and kind of look where things are at.
And then next week on Monday
is going to be the first public community engineering call.
So this is a call where a bunch of core developers
and our head of engineering and so on,
they're all in this call.
Personally, I'm also gonna be there.
I think you two children.
Yep, I will be there as well.
And this is a public call,
meaning everybody can join and listen in.
There is gonna be a segment first.
I'm gonna open the call, welcome everybody,
do a bit of the moderation.
Then we will have some of the core devs
talking about everything that's going on.
And in the end, we might do a Q&A session
where community members can ask certain things and so on.
Calls are planned to happen once a month, approximately.
So I think every second or third Monday, every month,
we're gonna have a call.
And we just confirmed today that we are gonna try
to have a recording available
for everybody that cannot make it,
because especially for Europe time zone,
this is 10.30 in the morning.
So for Singapore, this is 5.30,
which most people should be able to attend.
And but on the European side, of course,
if you have a job, a day job,
it's kind of hard to tune in at 10.30,
but there's gonna be a recording.
So these are maybe the two or three most important things
that I wanted to mention.
On the cake side, let me also update you on this.
We have done a bit of a soft launch yesterday.
You should be able to actually swap any coin
into almost any coin on bake.
Not everything is swappable into everything yet,
but next week, there could be another push
where then everything should be swappable into everything.
Test it out.
One of the biggest questions people also always have
is can I swap DFI now?
Yes, because we can finally now do the exchange thing.
So this is something that was asked for a lot.
We're definitely gonna go into this direction.
So now it's not only entering services and products anymore.
Now it's really about being able to swap into both directions.
So one big wish that customers have or had,
we are executing on that.
So yeah, if you wanna support us,
if you wanna support the platform,
then please use us for those swaps.
We're gonna be offering more and more routes,
more and more directions.
So just test it out where we are already
and what we already have.
Also, we launched the AI bundle,
which is obviously one of the most exciting kind of coin bundles
that crypto has seen in the past couple of weeks.
Check this out as well.
Very, very popular.
So yeah, if you just wanna diversify into the AI space,
check this out.
So quite exciting.
I'm really proud of the team of all the things
we have built over the last couple of weeks and months.
Actually, so much progress and yeah,
actually really cool work.
So that's exciting.
So check this out, take a look,
and you're gonna see more and more,
hopefully next week,
may lead into the week after.
So yeah, that's gonna be definitely quite cool.
Why is the DFI BTC higher than the other way around?
Okay, didn't know.
Not sure.
Not sure.
Okay, could be.
I don't know.
I actually really don't know the pricing.
I don't know.
Not sure.
Could be that.
Okay, I don't know.
I believe you.
I need to check.
I don't know.
We've had a bit of a fucker yesterday with inflation numbers.
I don't know, Fabio, have you followed it?
I'm gonna pull up here.
Consumer prices in the US.
I mean, it was not much more than expected.
I think expected was 3.1.
And at the end, it came in at 3.2.
But I think the bigger shocker is more it went up
and it's not going down.
Again, the Fed is always trying to go for a 2% inflation number.
What happened there was the market really reacted to that.
And you saw this also with bond yields.
Bonds really suffered from that,
in a sense that bond yields went up.
So existing bond holders really suffered a bit from it.
And here are now the interest rates probabilities.
And March, I mean, we have another week for the next meeting.
And basically, no one is expecting a change to interest rates.
And now even in May, and just as a reminder,
a couple of weeks ago, people were already expecting a lowering of rates in March.
Now there's almost no one expecting a lowering of rates in May anymore.
And yeah, we are now at 60% chance of June.
So we're talking about in three months for the actual first lowering.
So quite interesting to see this.
There are calls from Jamie Diamond that say we shouldn't be lowering rates.
It's way too risky.
Yeah, quite interesting to kind of see this.
Market really kind of reacted a bit shaky to that.
Crypto didn't today.
But Fabio, how do you see this?
How does this tie in with the recession?
How does this tie in with the soft landing?
For my side, maybe as a thought just at first,
I think the Fed got a lot of flack from a lot of people.
I would say so far, they have hit it quite well.
I think there's not so much to criticize because I think they had a really tough road.
Obviously, I mean, the game ain't won until the time is up.
So far, we're not through yet, but quite interesting.
So these have been my thoughts on this.
What are yours?
So maybe I'm putting on a tin foil hat for a little bit,
but I kind of tried to pull up a statement and I couldn't find it right away.
So I'm going to paraphrase or just my interpretation of the statement.
But I think two things on inflation and the Fed.
So the first thing is Powell hinted several times between the lines,
not basically saying it out loud,
but I think the Fed is going to adjust their inflation targets.
I'm 80% sure that they will do that.
Until now, they always said 2% is the target of inflation.
And I think probably this year, they are probably going to adjust that and say,
okay, look, it's 3% now or it's 4% now because it's a different market
and things have changed, whatever the reasoning will be.
But I'm pretty sure they're going to adjust their inflation targets upwards.
And then the second thing is many, many people,
of course, the mandate that the Fed has is price stability and inflation,
basically, to manage inflation and tie to employment.
But I would say right now it's more they're kind of weaponizing the dollar
and it's more a deficit play and more much more tied into politics than people like to admit.
And I think Jerome Paul is playing this game better than anyone potentially could.
Like he's such an eloquent speaker and he played, as you said,
until now he played it very, very well.
But I think they're going to optimize for deficits and not for inflation coming forward.
And that's also the reason why I would say they're probably going to adjust their inflation targets.
Right now, if they would lower rates, we would have a really,
probably potentially a big wave, another wave of inflation.
So it's too early, they can't.
I think Jamie Diamond is, he's not right on a lot of things in my opinion,
but he's probably right on this one.
And I don't know, I can also foresee a scenario where they don't even lower in June,
where we are going to wait a bit longer.
But then again, the elections are going to play into that as well.
I think June lowering would probably help the Democrats and Biden.
Because in, I think, beginning of November, we have the election.
And so there's a lot of factors and a lot of uncertainty.
Yeah, I don't know, what do you think is a lowering in June on the table?
And would this actually be bullish?
I'm not sure.
I think it would only lower if the market really has a setback,
if there's really a harder, soft landing on the table.
At the moment, it doesn't look like it.
At the moment, the landing looks uber soft.
It looks like a perfect touchdown.
If that thing kind of changes, and there's a chance it does.
Liquidity is a bit on the dryish side in the general markets.
Then I do think they're going to be quite aggressive on lowering the rates
and trying to really stimulate.
But if they keep landing like they are landing,
then I don't see why they should lower.
I mean, at the moment, they have all time highs in the markets,
both on crypto stock.
I mean, risk on is as risk on as it can be.
Interest rates are as high as they can do them.
So I don't see why they should lower.
It makes no sense.
What do you think about?
It doesn't matter what index you bought or you're buying.
I'm diversified quite a bit.
I have some ETFs in India, some in Saudi Arabia, some, I don't know, dividend ETFs.
Even in Europe, almost everything is making new alt and high.
Even gold and everything at the same time.
What do you make of that?
Is this something that scares you or is it something that you say,
okay, it doesn't really send a message.
But usually when gold makes new alt and highs, kind of signals a flight to safety, maybe.
Yeah, I mean, I saw this part that gold has been tracking the liquidity also really well.
So general money liquidity.
And I mean, here I put up this slide about a lot of Chinese, Chinese purchase power is
actually rushing into gold because there's not much else.
The stock market in China has not been good.
Property market is really struggling.
So then gold becomes the only kind of safe haven there, if you want to call it,
because a lot of Chinese don't have access to crypto.
So I don't know, I see it a bit of, on the one hand, tracking global liquidity and it does.
Bitcoin has been tracking global liquidity really well.
But I think it's not only that right now on Bitcoin, it's really ETF that drives a lot.
I mean, I do really kind of sit there and think, wow, it's just insane.
I was actually speaking to a really good friend of mine who,
I don't know, just like myself, probably has more liquidity on the sidelines right
now to put in if there were a setback and both of us were sitting there and saying, hey,
does this make sense?
Should we not actually have had way more in risk on and where we too cautious?
I don't know.
I think it's a bit difficult to kind of gauge, right?
Because I mean, it may turn on a dime and we may be wrong.
And I don't know, everyone is wondering, where's all this liquidity coming from?
But the liquidity is definitely there.
And you can see that the leverage is not as high as it is during these really crazy times.
It's just there's so much liquidity, it seems.
And money market funds still have massive liquidity.
I don't know.
It's at some point someone has to pay the bill.
But for now, it doesn't look like that anyone has to pick up the tap.
It's I don't know.
At the moment, the party keeps going.
Yeah, like I'm taking it, especially.
We all are.
I mean, it's fantastic.
I mean, yeah, nothing to complain about.
Yeah, like, you know, I've been sitting on my gold position for more than 10 years to finally.
Okay, look, sure.
Into 2020, we saw the run-off like gold basically had this cup and handle.
And after the great financial crisis, I think in 2012, until 2015-16, we had a big drawdown.
That was and also that was a time when I built the major part of my position.
Of course, it is up a bit, but I was expecting and anticipating a breakout on gold much earlier.
And it's gold is a bit late to the party.
But in my opinion, the breakout to the upside is long overdue.
And right now you have, of course, people like Peter shape waking up and crawling out of their
cave. But probably, you know, if people would love to look a potential idea, trading idea,
silver and gold miners could be extremely interesting.
Both are forming some nice patterns and both follow gold in their tracks, usually.
So I think definitely silver and gold miners could be a potential play for the coming months.
And yeah, everything else is weird. It feels weird.
Yeah, I mean, look, I mean, I'm up nicely on my portfolio.
Of course, I would have loved to be all in crypto over the last year.
I'm not. I don't regret it.
I don't think I would feel comfortable.
I think I would be super nervous every night.
I'm not. I can sleep really well at the end.
I prefer that. And yeah, I think that's always the key.
So I mean, that's just I mean, sure. Looking backwards, shoulda, woulda, coulda.
Yeah, I mean, that's the key things.
I think that was a really nice update. Anything else that we need to mention?
I mean, that's these are the things that I brought.
I think we covered Bitcoin, e-pay chain, what's happening on the big side.
We covered general markets, gold, anything else?
Um, uh, I had something in my mind in the beginning of the, of the session.
But let me see what note you wrote in there.
Uh, no, half of it is happened price. Then it was the only thing, but that's maybe the
final point.
Maybe just a personal question here. Um, have you received DMS calls, uh, out of your family
or personal circle or, or people, you know, in general, where you would say, okay, these
are new people or people that, that are coming back, uh, just a personal question.
Not yet. Nothing. Zero.
No, I haven't. So I don't have those and I don't have those typical candidates.
Like I have my couple of candidates. So I have a couple of candidates who go into altcoins
when then it's from your time to sell, they're not doing it.
And then I don't have those candidates that come when I should be selling.
So they haven't come at the moment. What about you?
So I had a birthday party. Uh, my son, it was my son's birthday.
And, uh, we had family and friends coming over and, uh, funny enough, uh, I had like my
mother-in-law and a few other more distant family members buying mean coins right now.
And, uh, I had a bit of a discussion with them.
Dog, cat, what are they buying? What, what is the mean coins they're buying?
Dog with head, uh, Floki, uh, Shiba Inu. Uh, and they usually, they, they take $20,
$50 positions, uh, in, in, in those, in those mean coins.
And then you'll love it.
It's more gambling than investing. And I had, uh, one, one person, uh, that I haven't seen
in like more than five years, uh, reaching out on, on WhatsApp and asking where and how to buy.
And if the normal questions, uh, by now, wait for the dip, where to buy, what to buy, uh,
a bit of that, but nothing that compares to, uh, how, how all of this went in 2021.
It's, it's dismal. So, uh, and just of course, personal, personal anecdotes are one side of
the story, but there's also data that kind of implicates, okay, is there an actual influx,
influx of people. And if you look at Google search terms, uh, both Ethereum and, uh,
Bitcoin are ticking up. Yeah. We're still low in comparison to 2021, but definitely on the way up.
Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. 100%. Definitely on the way up. And, uh, as we saw with 2020, uh, I think in
December, November of 2020, we, we broke the all-time highs or we were in the vicinity of the all-time
highs and it took another month or two for the public really to kind of, uh, step in and, and,
and for this being, uh, of course, if Bitcoin breaks its all-time highs, it's on the newspaper
of almost every financial, uh, publication. And also in the mainstream media, Bitcoin makes new
highs. And this is like the start where retail starts to pay attention. Um, and usually
historically, uh, don't, um, call me out on a date days, but I think the moment Bitcoin hits an
all-time high, uh, confirms the levels, it takes 18 days historically for Bitcoin to double in price
until now. Um, and yeah, so the, the, the, the coming few weeks could be, um, or, uh,
could be very, very interesting. Cool. Definitely interesting. Cool. Nice update. Nice story.
Appreciate it. Everyone, if you haven't done so already, make sure you're on the latest version
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Thank you so much. Everyone stay safe, stay healthy. Good fortune. Good investing till next time. Thank