Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
Can crypto survive ? LIVE BINANCE NEWS AND Pre FOMC Roundtable .
Recorded: June 13, 2023 Duration: 2:00:52Space Recording
Full Transcription
That has gone on for today.
So, yeah, looking forward to the discussion, guys.
We'll start in about two minutes or so.
Sounds good.
Sounds good.
All right. Cool. We can get started. What's up, guys? Thanks for showing up to our post-CPI and pre-FOMC spaces.
We're here joined by a pretty stacked speaker panel. We have Merck and Payne as co-hosts.
We're also joined by Kane, Max, Tucker, and Dow.
And in this conversation, we're going to go over today's events, as well as some events that have been occurring in the crypto space over the last week or two.
So we're going to talk about all things finance, SEC, some price action stuff, and as well as some future narratives.
So I just want us to go around and just greet the audience.
And we can start off like that. But I just want to say CPI came in cooler than expected.
But, you know, looking at the B&B price action, as much as I want to be bullish, man, as much as I want to be bullish, I can't help but have like a lingering feeling in my gut.
Because I remember two days before FTX collapsed, I was talking to Max, and I'm like, yeah, I think this actually might be a bottom.
But then the next day, after I saw the Caroline tweet talking about, you know, I'll buy everything you have for 22 bucks, that was when the deal was set.
And by God, I hope CZ doesn't put out a tweet like that. I really hope he doesn't put out some tweet talking about price or anything of the sort.
But, yeah, we're just going to go around and then we can get started.
Mark, what's going on, brother? Good to have you. How are you doing, man? Glad to have you up on the panel.
And I know you were a speaker a couple of spaces ago, but I was having some audio issues.
But thankfully, it's not thundering here as much today. So what's going on, brother? Good to have you.
Yeah, what's going on, man? It's always nice to be up here. I love chatting with you guys.
Yeah, I don't have too many thoughts in the markets towards like CZ and Binance and all the news stuff.
So it might be kind of boring on that front. But yeah, mostly just because I don't pay attention to news events or like fundamentals or anything.
Yeah, I saw you posted a chart going to 18K, man. That has me terrified, but kind of a mixture of a good terrified and a bad terrified.
Good terrified in the sense that, you know, might be able to scoop these alts at significantly lower prices, but bad terrified as far as like the infrastructure of this industry, man.
Go ahead. You were saying something?
Oh, yeah. I'm glad that you brought that up, actually. Let me clarify on that.
So a lot of a lot of what I post on Twitter that's like extremes is mostly just playing into an exaggeration of my current bias.
And then if that exaggeration plays out, it is what it is. I get to come back and claim cloud on it.
If it doesn't listen, it's whatever. Right.
It's like I have a public discord now, so I'm I'm actively updating my real time thoughts on the market amongst all time frames.
And the reality is that people love to think in extremes.
And, you know, it's either we're going to 100K tomorrow or 10K and there's no in between.
But the reality is that if you are an active trader like myself and you spent seven years trading now, about 10 percent of your your career is going to be trading extremes.
About 10 percent is when you can just definitively say the market is black or white, where you can say the market is is bullish or the market is bearish definitively on every single time frame.
It does not matter what time frame that you go to. It could be the weekly. It could be the one minute.
Every single one is either bullish. Every single one is either bearish.
The other 90 percent of the time you're going to be trading nuances.
There's going to be context. There's going to be layers. It's a gray zone of an analysis.
So the way that I break it down is I like to segregate time frames and it gives me a context.
I can play into a higher time frame that is usually less actionable.
So, like, for example, BTC is currently bullish on one time frame and one time frame alone.
If you zoom out from year to day, which is hilarious to me because the other day people were arguing which market has been more brutal, 2019 or 2023.
I don't know what chart these people are looking at.
But when I go and look at the BTC chart from year to day, we're still up at 60 percent premium.
And as far as I can tell, and if I ask the four year old which way is that chart headed from year to day, they would absolutely tell me that it's still headed to the top right corner.
But the the issue with that analysis is you can argue it at 31 K just as much as you can argue it at current price, just as much as you can argue it when you get to 20 K.
It would still be the same argument. It doesn't get nullified.
It's still just as valid. So you have to be able to kind of speculate a little bit and assume, is there a specific price point where that analysis becomes less valid and significantly less valid?
But we can kind of assume that it will essentially become invalidated sometime in the near future.
And to me, that region is actually around current price. It's about 25 K.
I see a daily demand zone there just based off of my perception of support and resistance.
So I see a demand zone there. I also trade moving averages.
So 200 daily EMA, I believe. And then I believe it's 200 weekly MA.
Don't quote me on that. I'm not looking at a chart right now.
But both of those moving averages are high time frame, significant supports.
So we have both of the 200 daily moving averages, actually, but the 200 daily EMA is somewhere around 25 K.
I also have a demand zone there. We have the 200 one of the 200 weekly moving averages.
I can't remember exactly which one, but they're all kind of lined up in this perfect little like three percent range where I would imagine is high time frame support.
Now, we actually haven't technically perfectly tested that region of support yet, but I would imagine if we lost that support level, then, yeah, there's a very good chance that we will go to, I don't know, 20 K, 18 K.
Who knows, right? Because at that point, when I look at the chart, I can definitively say on every single time frame, we are bearish now.
Even though it wouldn't technically be true, I could still go ask a four year old and they would still tell me from year to day.
We're still heading to the top right corner. But I, of course, don't want to have the same analysis as a four year old.
So I want to give myself a little bit of an edge. And at the same time, I don't want to even continue making the same analysis from 31 K, which is the local top thus far into current price.
I want to be more actionable. So I've already done myself justice in the sense that I've given myself like a kind of pivot level, a line in the sand, if you will, where I can kind of cut that analysis early and assume that the four year old will eventually be wrong on them saying that we will still head to the top right corner.
But even that is not good enough. I need to be more actionable than that. If you're a trader, the entire point of trading is to take what dictates your success out of the hands of the market and put it into your own.
So if you're relying on an analysis that has so far encompassed six months worth of price action, that means that you are not actionable for a large portion of price action.
Right. So the other analysis that I tie into that, which is still high time frame, but it's just a little bit more relevant to us as it stands, is that when you go and ask a four year old, which way is the chart headed for the past two months?
We're clearly headed to the bottom right corner. It's not, oh, my gosh, look how well BTC is holding up and oh, BTC is doing this and it's just going idle.
No, no, no, no, no. It's headed to the bottom right corner. Right. Then you can break it down further. So it's like, OK, well, six months, we're going up two months.
We're going down the past month. We've just gone sideways. And as of the past three days, we've gone down.
So it's like that's the true analysis. If I'm posting a fractal or whatever, it's an exaggeration of that idea.
And the greatest thing is if instead my fractal is wrong and just the way that I've said since April 26th, hey, we're probably going to go down or actually, no, I think it was before that.
Whenever BTC initially started breaking down below twenty nine K when it topped out at thirty one, that's when I sold all my BT spot from the entire rally upwards in the first place.
I said, oh, I'm bearish now. And then I think it was a week or two later. April 26th is that date.
That's why it's sticking my mind. We got a 10 percent daily candle from the lows.
I was just talking about how I'm still bearish. Ten percent daily candle.
Your entire Twitter feed comes out and says, oh, I'm claiming clout. Look at me.
I said that the bottom would be in and I bought the dip and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah.
And I came out and clearly stated I made zero dollars on this push upwards.
I didn't buy I didn't long anything. I didn't buy any spot. I made zero dollars.
I said that at the top of that candlestick, putting my own rep and saying, hey, I did not buy this.
I was bearish. I'm I'm not still bearish, but I didn't buy anything.
I don't get to come back and claim clout. And it ended up being that in the same candlestick, we kind of initially just retraced everything.
And then from there, I said, OK, well, at best, we're going to go sideways.
And then maybe from that sideways, we form some strength again and continue upwards and resume the uptrend that we have had for the past four months at that point.
And at worst, this consolidation or choppiness or range or whatever breaks down and I can still justify sitting idle, not paying attention to the chart, just preserving the profits that I already made from the rally initially.
And that has been the stance pretty much ever since.
And the beauty of that is that in order for the market to start to align with what it's been doing for the past six months, because, again, when you go look at year to day, we're bullish, we're still uptrending.
There's still higher highs on, say, a three day or maybe a weekly chart.
Right. In order for it to start to align with that analysis, it needs to invalidate all of the current, more relevant, more actionable analysis available to us.
So it needs to break out of the little mini local downtrend on, say, the past three days outlook.
It needs to break out of the range as of the past month.
We've been going sideways for the past month.
It needs to reclaim the downtrend portrayal and reclaim key levels in order to invalidate the downtrend as of the past two months.
So I'm allowing myself an actionable analysis.
So essentially, the position that I'm in is either my fractal comes true and we go to I don't care what your number is, because essentially the way that I see it is if we lose a region just not too much lower from current price,
you will get your bids and then some more than likely.
Don't tell me that it's not you can't fathom it because altcoins just four days ago in in the span of a 48 hour period retrace the entire move from year to day.
So it's not really it wouldn't be that crazy of like, oh, my gosh, nobody could have possibly seen this coming.
I got my bids and I got more than my bids.
Actually, I thought I was I thought my bids were stinky, but it turns out that didn't really smell all that bad.
They just took a shower, actually.
So it's like it's like that's the way I'm thinking.
So either that fractal comes true and you guys get your bids and then some and I get to come back and claim clout on it and whatever.
And woo ha right to my own horn or the market reverses.
And I start to acknowledge the reversal, the signs of reversal, the strength, the things that maybe my Twitter following isn't seeing because, you know,
I'm posting the rational analysis in a discord for a thousand people so that they can follow along with the real sort of way that I'm actually approaching markets.
They're not just getting an exaggerated kind of form of that.
But yeah.
Yeah.
Speaking about things that are actionable and at support and sort of a leading indicator for the market, Payne, I see that you posted something up on the nest talking about BNB.
It seems that Binance is setting off their spot holdings on BTC and Ethereum to hold up the BNB price.
Can you go a little bit into the specifics of that?
And then after that, we'll go on over to Max and Tucker for our equities update.
Yeah, for sure.
I think this is probably the most important thing happening in the market right now.
And fundamentally, like BNB and Binance is operating like in a pretty similar vein to FTX.
And they're essentially selling all their spot BTC and using that money along with BUSD to prop up BNB because there's a huge, huge liquidation cascade that will occur below $220 BNB.
And this just feels like fucking deja vu if you were around last year from the classic.
Oh, yeah, the $22.
And like you said, Wabi, earlier, you're like, oh, you know, I hope he doesn't tweet something about it.
I think it doesn't even need to be tweeted about, man.
I don't think it's like I think it's pretty much a given like the writing is on the wall.
Some of the smartest people in the space are saying today that they're extremely concerned about it.
But like and I just think it's probably something that should be at the utmost importance of being talked about, because if I mean, what do we think the ramifications of that is?
I think I think that like that would be just absolutely detrimental to the market, obviously.
But I don't know.
I haven't even entertained the scenario of what could potentially happen afterwards.
I mean, we'll just play it by year.
But, yeah, I don't have any I don't have any exposure to alts or anything of the sorts right now.
My thesis the whole year, I also feel like I just have, you know, I like how Mark here is talking about edge, because I feel like in the last week or two, I've had less edge than I've had the whole year.
Because the whole the first, you know, at the start of the year, the whole trade, as I was saying, was it was pretty clear to me just because everybody thought a recession was going to happen tomorrow and assets were already destroyed.
So I thought at the very least we would get a rally and that's what happened.
And and then I was also telling people around meme season that it felt toppy.
I basically told people to sell their Pepe like above a billion.
And I yeah, I think that after this whole like this, just it felt kind of complacent within the last week.
And, you know, it just didn't really there was you can see even on chain, like no one was trading volume was super down.
Gas fees are a huge indicator for that, too, where you can just look at Gawai and see how many people are literally trading.
And yeah, like if volume is just at zero and price is going sideways after a big uptrend, the probability that we get a correction just increases tenfold.
And that combined with just like I mean, we got the aggressive nukes on a bunch of alts from the whole SEC thing.
This kind of reminds me of a little bit of last year when we were just getting like all this bad news back to back to back.
And last year, you're talking about like the three situation where.
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Over the weekend. Right.
Yeah. Yeah. We just had the SEC thing.
And then the Binance stuff hasn't even really came to fruition yet at all.
I don't know if it will. But do you think do you think that Binance hiring George Connells for a criminal defense attorney is of anything significant?
And just for some context for the audience, he's essentially the former SEC and DOJ prosecutor.
So they have the money. They have the money. So I just want to entertain that as well.
I want to entertain both sides.
To be honest, yeah, I don't know enough about I don't know enough about him or what that entails for Binance to speak on it.
So I'm not going to I don't really have a take with that specifically, but I do know that I do know that Binance is like historically been noncompliant with a lot of that stuff.
And they know. And also remember that Gary was working with Sam last year.
So. Just because they have like some great some someone that they hired that might be quote unquote legit or something or that they're working with doesn't necessarily mean it's all sunshine from here.
Yeah. Yeah. All right. We're going over to Max and Tucker. Max, what's going on, brother?
What did you see in the equity markets? It seems that we're in that same situation that we were in back last November and December where equities just went straight up in a straight line and crypto sort of lagged behind.
I know you were putting out a theory that perhaps crypto was leading the moves before equities in the same sense that BNB was leading before some of the downside that we're seeing across some majors.
Yeah. Yeah. Hey, Wabi, Mercury, Payne. OK, yeah, we've got a big speaker panel.
I'm just looking now. What's up, Matt, Kane, Storlax, Tucker, Dow.
Well, we got we got a lot of people up here. What's up, guys?
It should be a fun space. But yeah, Mercury, a lot of wisdom shared.
I always appreciate hearing from you. I think you have a really like a really healthy perspective on trading in the market.
I'll say this. I'm I'm definitely a little concerned about the state of the altcoin market right now.
I understand that a lot of altcoins are down 20, 30, 40 percent in a very short period of time.
But I don't see any any serious demand coming in to scoop up altcoins, even at these, quote unquote, perceived cheap valuations.
I think that your favorite altcoin that's down 90 percent from the all time high can very easily go down another 50, 60, 80 percent from here.
And I guess historically speaking, that wouldn't be that too, too out of whack from what we've seen in previous cycles.
What's happening with BNB?
Pain is right. I mean, there's some serious players that control a lot of money that are sort of on my do not fade list that are publicly talking about BNB sort of.
Having an FTT type of situation, to say the least, and I don't really want to comment on it much further than that, because I'm not the person to speculate on it.
I'm not the person to comment on whatever's happening with the SEC and Binance and what the future holds for them here domestically in the States or, I guess, internationally.
But I will say this, if there is a chance for BNB to finally sort of topple, it would probably be now or soon.
And we've got some very, very thin books out there with an obvious lack of serious demand to prop up this altcoin market in any way.
Because if you are interested in crypto and you do like these prices, it still doesn't make sense to take on the inherent risk of buying an altcoin that's in the crosshairs of the SEC.
So, yes, maybe a lot of these altcoins have utility, and I'm sure a lot of them still have a future.
But market conditions need to dictate your purchases, you know, not your passion around the team or, you know, the problem that they're solving.
It just probably doesn't make sense here, truthfully.
I would be a little bit hesitant to try to step in front of these.
I see a lot of altcoins that are down 30% in the past couple of weeks that will probably be down another 30% in the next couple of weeks, truthfully.
Sorry, Max, I was just going to say one thing, too, where I think another good indicator for that is, like, there's been, you know,
So, yesterday we got the Yellen saying that U.S. wasn't going to be the reserve currency anymore.
We should have ripped, like, way harder than that off that news, in my opinion, than we did.
We, like, barely got, like, a 1% bounce or some shit.
It wasn't even, it wasn't even, most alts didn't even bounce, like, 0.5%.
A lot of them are just still getting completely hammered.
Yeah, so I think that's been a big signal.
And then every, like, there's been a couple different news catalysts where it should have been something.
Also, the SEC saying they were going to fire Gary was the one before that, where both of those events, back-to-back, should have been big bounces, in my opinion.
And, like, all throughout, all throughout this year, we've been bouncing on, like, we've been trading pretty high volatility off news.
And so, that just indicates to me that there isn't, there isn't a ton of people just stepping into backstopping bid this year.
Yeah, yeah, no, I would agree with that, for sure.
In regards to, to, I think, I want to dive into B&B, just again, from, like, a technical perspective.
Yeah, I mean, that, that 220, 225 area is, is definitely an area that needs to be defended.
I don't know how vulnerable Binance as a company is, if B&B were to slide.
I know that, you know, for FTX, it was, it was absolutely critical to maintaining the integrity of their business, that FTT remained above a certain level.
So, I mean, look, even if Binance itself is fine, and it's still, you know, operational, if there's an opportunity for traders and investors to, you know, exploit an industry titan for profit, even if it's detrimental to the space, it's going to happen.
You know, it's going to happen, you know, call, call this, yeah, call this a hostile takeover, or just a bunch of, you know, short-sighted traders that are in it for themselves.
But, yeah, it's probably going to happen, you know, but also, you have to be careful shorting B&B.
You're going up against, you're going up against the most powerful man in crypto, CZ, and even with him, you know, even with one arm tied behind his back, it's still dangerous to try to take down B&B with too much leverage.
You'll probably get squeezed.
It's not going to be easy, I'll promise you that right now.
Like, it will not be an easy short.
Gun to my head, does it happen?
You know, do we lose that 225 level?
Probably, just based on what I'm seeing.
I'm not sure if I want to try to take a stab at it.
I mean, look, they're twopping out of Bitcoin and ETH to prop up B&B, and I'm telling you that they're not going to go down without a fight.
So, I think this is much different than FTX in that regard, truthfully.
I think CZ is much more of a Chad, truthfully.
Yeah, like, they likely don't have a huge hole on their balance sheet.
I mean, I have no idea about that.
I can't speak on their balance sheet, because that was the whole thing where, that was the catalyst with FTX, was their balance sheet got leaked like a day or two before.
And then people identified the hole.
But, I mean, I still think it's, it's probably not as, so it couldn't, it might just not be as severe as, you know, that, obviously, because Binance is the biggest exchange.
They do the most volume, so it doesn't really make sense that they're going to, like, just collapse, like, 99%.
It's not going to collapse, like, 99% in the same way that FTT did.
So, I'm just saying that it's similar setups.
It's certainly similar.
By the way, guys, you know, shout out to Valentin, again, putting out the quickest news in all of crypto.
So, I think Valentin is actually going to flip, I think he's going to flip DB later.
Hey, Wavi, you know what I said earlier?
I've got to say it again, quick.
I'm cracking up thinking about this, man.
DB said he's the fastest moving news in all of crypto.
And Valentin took that personally.
Yeah, so, guys, the judge has declined the asset freeze for Binance US.
So, this is what I'm saying.
Binance does have a war chest.
And unlike FTX, CZ is actually fighting back.
And this isn't like Do Kwon, where he's, like, steady lads deploying capital, where he's selling Bitcoin and AVAX, right, in Moss.
This guy is actually using some of the stablecoin reserves.
And I believe TUSD is one of them.
I believe Binance was one of their largest holders.
So, they're essentially going to be using all of their resources.
But the question is, how long is that going to last?
And I actually wanted to throw this over to Matt.
Matt, do you believe this can be a Bitfinex situation?
I want to ask the room this question.
Go ahead.
I've been kicking this idea around.
I'm not really sure.
I don't understand CZ and Binance's move here, honestly.
Maybe someone can explain it to me.
If you're telling me that you haven't leveraged your BNB token, if you're telling me you don't have outstanding loans or debts or you owe or ā you know what I'm saying.
If you're telling me that BNB token just exists and they didn't over-leverage themselves, why would you need to sell anything to defend BNB's price?
Bingo!
Bingo, bingo, bingo, bingo.
Nailed it.
That should ā that should ā if you believe these news headlines, if you believe they are in fact doing what they say they're doing, selling Bitcoin, selling other assets to defend BNB token, that should scare you to your bones.
That's why I was saying it's the ā sorry.
Because otherwise, why?
The whole point ā like I don't ā look, I'm not trying to make a moral judgment.
I'm not trying to be a Bitcoin maxi.
But the whole point is to sell you shitcoin to buy Bitcoin.
Why the hell ā why the hell would I ever want to sell ā later sell Bitcoin to buy back my own shitcoin unless there is a serious hole I'm trying to dig out of?
That should scare you.
So I don't know ā I don't know what the truth is, but it is something that doesn't get brought up enough.
We've listened to these ā we've listened to these news headlines for the better part of a week now.
And this is the thing that no one brings up.
And you really, really need to spend some time, some quiet time, make a plan, and figure out like what are the probabilities for and against and what are you going to do if something happens.
That's an incredible point, Matt.
Yeah, no, that's ā I'm so glad you brought that up because, yeah, if they weren't ever leveraged, they wouldn't need to sell their other things.
And then I don't know what the game plan here is either because ā so let's just assume that that is exactly what's happening, right?
They're selling BTC and using that along with their BUSD stacks to prop up BNB, right?
What is their game plan?
I'm thinking, okay, well, the only scenario where that would work out would be if they think this is like ā this would basically have to be the Pico bottom.
And they're assuming that if they backstop it, that other people are going to come in and bid.
And they're trying to like create their own bottom essentially.
But that almost never works.
And I don't know like why ā I don't know why they would just be doing that at a point like here where there's obviously more room for downside.
It just seems kind of off and not to mention, I mean, dude, BNB is still up like 200X in the last like two years.
I was going to say that, Payne, where like BNB is the only like big cap or like blue chip crypto that hasn't lost its like bull market range low.
It's basically Bitcoin's equivalent of 29K.
Like everything else has taken that next plunge down, BNB never did.
So it maybe has some catching up to do, you know, even if this isn't catastrophic to their business or they don't have, you know, debt that needs to, you know, be collateralized by a certain amount of BNB.
I don't know, you know, I don't know if it's public like Matt explained.
Like I don't know why they need to defend it.
Like if it's just a fine token and like ā
No, it's because it would cause a huge ā it would cause a huge liquidation cascade below 220.
So like if it goes ā they're trying to backstop 220 because if it goes below 220, it's going to nuke at least 20%.
Well, right.
But the question is like what is ā like what does it matter though?
In theory, if like what's collateralized by BNB that it matters for it to be defended?
Like why the fuck does it ā why can't it just go down to 100 bucks?
Why does it matter that 225 is defended?
It's a given that if they lose 220, 225, we're going to 150, probably lower, okay?
But why do they need to defend it, you know?
Like it must be tied to something, right?
That's a great point.
So I want to kick it over to Dow.
Dow, I understand that you hold a lot of spaces with multiple projects across the entire cryptosphere.
And even some Binance chain stuff, man.
So I want to welcome you on, brother.
What are your thoughts on this situation?
And would also like to know do you think this is going to be a nothing burger?
Perhaps Binance just restructures the organization.
Maybe CZ steps down and we merely have a small crash like FTX, which we kind of already did on Friday and Saturday.
These altcoins went down 30%, 40%, just as they did after the FTX crash.
But I wanted to know your thoughts, brother, given that you do speak to individuals building out these infrastructure products across multiple chains.
And, you know, you do have an insight on what goes on behind the scenes and what these developers and such are thinking about the current situation.
I doubt you there, brother.
Am I coming in clearly?
Hey, sorry, guys.
I was in and out of the conversation.
Yeah, so some stuff at home.
But just repeat the question.
Sorry about that.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Just want to know your thoughts on the situation going on at the current moment, the crypto market, given that you do have somewhat of an insight on what goes on behind the scenes, given that, you know, you partake in these discussions with multiple ecosystem projects that have provided the infrastructure for DeFi and more specifically Binance chain.
And I know that recently you've hosted some projects building on top of that ecosystem.
So why don't I know your thoughts on the situation and if you think this is nothing short of a nothing burger or do you think there's actually something critical that's going on?
Because as the panel has discussed, it seems that BNB is being used as collateral for some of Binance's loans.
But my thing is that, you know, we all understand that some of these exchanges outside of Binance are nothing more than Binance skins or exchanges that Binance has a big equity in, right?
Any exchange that holds BNB, you can kind of speculate that Binance does have some sort of equity within that exchange.
So I would love to know your thoughts on it.
And thank you again for participating up on this panel.
Yeah, that's a great question, man.
And I love the contribution from Mercury and Max earlier.
I'm not a trader.
You're probably going to learn that from me real quick.
More of a hodler myself.
But I'm bullish, maybe not in the short terms in terms of technicals.
But I think there's a narrative that has been picking up.
And that implies Alcon as well in this LSD or liquid staking derivatives.
There's a real functionality behind it, right?
The ability to secure a network or a proof-of-stake network.
And around this new LSD, there's also a new trend called LSD-Fi, which is basically applying DeFi to LSD.
And so the ability for you to use your LSD as a collateral to get a loan or to separate the principal from the interest using something like Pandle or to get your earning right away, right?
As opposed to having to wait the end of the year, there's a lot of financial tooling that is building around this ecosystem.
And obviously, there's Lido, there's Coinbase, and Rocketpool, and a few others with different models and different levels of decentralization.
And if you just look at the stats, it's actually the biggest sector, bigger than DEX, bigger than lending, with $18 billion in TVL and growing.
And when you specifically look at ETH, the thing that's interesting is compared really to other proof-of-stake chain, it's really a small amount of that ETH that has been staked, right?
And usually for a proof-of-stake chain, you usually get between 40% to 60% of the coins being staked, right?
Because why not earn while you're hodling your token and also provide extra security to the network?
So in the case of ETH, I think it's still below 20%.
So we're seeing the early days of LSD for ETH.
And so as a network, because more secure, the notion of a risk-free rate, I know it's not exactly that,
because obviously there's no such thing as a risk-free investment.
And ETH is not necessarily what everybody would agree as a consensus that it's the less risky investment.
But it's starting to grow as a narrative that potentially in ETH and in this LSD for ETH, we get this risk-free rate.
And around that, you can start to think about all the tools that TratFive is used to, right?
Whether it's the yield curve.
Dow, Dow, Dow. Sorry to interrupt you, brother.
But essentially, do you believe that what's going on within the industry today,
don't you think that on the short term, some of this TVL will be driven out for a flight of safety?
I understand liquid staking derivatives and all those things.
And I posted a thread on my personal account, King Wabi.
I posted a thread about LSDs and all that stuff.
But if you look at the chart, the TVL is essentially going straight up.
And typically, during an event like this, there's usually a flight to safety.
And if we're having Bitcoin miners selling their stack in excess,
don't you think that some of these LSD providers might actually hedge with some stables?
And more specifically, I wanted to know your thoughts.
Like, do you think this Binance situation is going to cool off the markets for a bit?
Yeah, I get to just your question.
I get to just your question.
It's more like, okay, if you're focusing long term, then I'm very bullish on LSD.
But to your point, is there going to be some instability and volatility in the short term?
It's possible, but I haven't seen it yet, right?
I haven't seen a flight to safety so far.
What I've seen is actually more an acceleration and development of the ecosystem, right?
There's more protocols.
Those LSDs are being adopted on different chains, right?
So before it was just like Ethereum for ETH, for example.
But now you actually see some ETH going to BNB, right?
And your point about BNB is taken, obviously, the further around CZ, the case that the CFTC and the SEC and the DOJ have sound pretty dire for CZ and for Binance.
And it seems like they've done a lot of criminal things.
So I do think that the pushback that I would provide is that when you pay attention to where the flight to safety might be for BNB, of course, it will be something like Bitcoin and stablecoin.
But it can also be towards further decentralization on the BSC chain, right?
And specifically, their project like FINA, for example.
I know that sounds a bit idealistic, but I do think a lot of developers understand that in a way, in a weird, round way, what the regulators are doing is pushing the space towards further decentralization.
If you're Coinbase, you're in Binance, it almost makes sense for you to look or to take a second look at decentralization.
In case of Binance, you have Build-On-Base, obviously, the superchain that they're leveraging optimism.
And in case of Binance, there is a more concerted effort to look at the ecosystem that they have, the DeFi on BSC.
And project, again, like I said, like TINA and others are getting way more attention than before.
So I think you're right.
I think there's going to be some flight to safety, but also some flight towards further decentralization.
So I don't know how that plays out in the short term, but as far as I can tell, in terms of TVL and DeFi, it was a small shock.
Or maybe it was already priced in.
Maybe, like, all those cases were talked about that the Wells noticed, like, months ago.
So to some extent, I think people who were anticipating this already made this strategy.
So in a way, it seems like it's priced in.
Look, I'm a believer that the true flight to safety, regardless of U.S. dollar pricing, is going to be to Bitcoin here.
It's really the only ticker out there that has regulatory clarity within this space.
And we can make a good case for other names, I suppose.
But if you pull up a Bitcoin dominance chart, you'll see that we more or less broke a multi-year range high.
Whether we come back to retest it or just keep flying, time will tell.
But I think even if, let's just say, hypothetically, Bitcoin went back down to $20K or even $15K, okay, something dramatic like that, altcoins are going to get absolutely smoked.
They've got 80% to go from here.
So if you're not interested in tethering up or going to cash, the flight to safety is Bitcoin.
You know, it really is.
I don't know where else he would go within the space.
Bitcoin's going to be here a decade from now.
I don't know if I would bet my life on anything else at this point.
I think I would definitely make some bets.
But the only one I could say with absolute certainty that will be here a decade plus from now is Bitcoin.
And I'm certain that Bitcoin dominance is probably going to soar towards 57% to 65% before the actual global bottom is in, in my opinion, before next cycle.
So I wanted to kick this over to Tommy, given that he's our on-chain sleuth.
Tommy, have you noticed anything on-chain recently that could be useful for the panel as far as where that flight to safety is headed?
Yeah, you know, it's a little tough right now, Wabi, because, you know, I had the idea that we would probably experience a low volatility summer.
I assumed that, you know, we would get a high volatility event that would kind of bring that about first.
But, you know, so far we haven't gotten that.
And the local volatility that you're seeing on Bitcoin, you know, I mean, it essentially discourages speculation on altcoins.
And you kind of see that even on the lower timeframes, Bitcoin pulls back 300 or 400 points.
And altcoins can erase a structure that they spent, you know, half a day building.
You know, market makers not really willing to take a ton of bid size risk, at least not, like I said, with Bitcoin showing so much price instability.
And so we haven't really had, even though there is, you know, money flush on-chain right now after, you know, I called it on-chain QE, the whole Pepe pump.
You know, there is money on-chain, but I don't think that it's found a period of stability yet where it's comfortable, you know, investing heavily as far as what it's going to go into.
You know, I think you can speculate on a lot of different things.
You know, Milady's NFT projects in general that were kind of showing some life in late May, you know, some new on-chain projects that I think are somewhat interesting, developing, you know, things that we haven't seen in crypto before.
That doesn't guarantee their success, but it does mean I'm interested in them.
But yeah, no, I mean, so far we haven't quite gotten that surge in on-chain activity ever since that huge spike we had in April and May from meme season.
And a lot of that has to do with all this uncertainty in the market, especially with altcoins.
And, you know, a lot of these guys on the panel already kind of touched on my thoughts with that, you know, about weakness in the altcoin market.
But the Binance news I'm less certain of, I don't really want to speculate on something that's essentially like fading CZ.
But I do think it's something you kind of have to pay attention to after FTX.
You'd be, I think, naive not to just keep your eye on that just in case, especially after the altcoin capitulation we had on Friday.
I mean, that was, you know, that wasn't a small move.
Some of those altcoins pulled 25, 30% candles to the downside on a single hourly, very reflective of the conditions.
And, you know, we were talking about what gets sold to potentially protect the price if, you know, push comes to shove.
And I mean, I can tell you for a fact that if they do have any altcoins in their inventory, then they're going to sell them to defend that over instead of Bitcoin.
You know, altcoins are probably going to be sold first.
So, you know, as far as USD direction on Bitcoin, you can make arguments for either side.
But I do feel quite a bit of conviction in Bitcoin dominance, at least at this point, about to break out of, like Max said, a multi-year range that we've been forming ever since a breakdown in the early spring of 2021.
So, yeah, I mean, it's just people fleeing to certainty within the space.
And that's true of ETH as well, as well as Bitcoin, to a lesser extent than Bitcoin, but still to a greater extent than previous cycles, which I think is, you know, an interesting dynamic just because, you know, you see a little bit more favorable rotational dynamics back into ETH, you know, through DeFi, through layer ones that are now being fundamentally repriced.
But, you know, I think in general, we are seeing that flight to quality.
But if you are hoping for a bottom on, you know, altcoins and vaporware, you better hope that Bitcoin finds one or else, you know, what you're holding could mark down pretty severely.
All right, next topic, I wanted to bring up the SEC Stabilization Act.
And essentially, they're proposing, instead of one chairman, for there to be sort of a panel of decision makers.
And given what's occurred over the last year, year and a half in this market, you know, Gary Gensler has essentially created a catastrophe worse than 2008.
I believe for the first half of 2023, there's been greater total destruction in the banking sector and all those things across the financial markets, more so than the great financial crisis.
So I want to pass it on over to Max.
Max, I understand that you were a part of a DAO before.
So I wanted to know your thoughts.
Do you think the SEC, right, the chairman of the SEC should be split into a group rather than the tyrannical mind of one individual that perhaps has a vendetta?
Because we did find out, by the way, ladies and gentlemen, that Gary Gensler actually applied to be an advisor for Binance while he was essentially doing this pseudo-KOL thing for Algrant.
Max, I was talking about Sam O'Dow.
Max is texting me saying Max Dow.
No, brother, I'm talking about Sam O'Dow.
So I understand that when it comes to things like that, essentially it's like governance proposals and all of those things.
And it's sort of like the crypto model, right?
A lot of these things that occur within the crypto market, like the ETH merge and things like that, the merger from proof of work to proof of stake,
these things are essentially voted on via the governance token, right?
Whether it's Ethereum, whether it's Uniswap and all those things.
So I kind of want to entertain the possibility of perhaps the future in the next, you know, 10, 15 years as far as regulation and all those things are concerned.
Instead of having one individual, right, Gary Gensler making all the shots, perhaps it's a group of individuals at the chair.
So I wanted to know your thoughts on that.
Do you believe that Gary is going to lose against the courts?
Because we're starting to see that, right, in real time with a judge not approving the asset freeze on Binance US, which I believe was very unjust.
Yeah, I'm probably not the best person to speak on, like being in a DAO.
You know, I was around a community during, like, the early formation of their DAO.
I wasn't super involved with the community, you know, once they actually launched.
I was actually building because Bitcoin.
But I can definitely, you know, give my opinion on, you know, what that would mean.
I think it's, I mean, look, I don't see why there's any downside to, you know, having more opinions in the mix.
I definitely think that there is a potential conflict of interest from certain pieces of information that I've seen floated around Twitter,
where Gary Gensler, I believe it was in 2018 or 19, actually applied to work for Binance, maybe as like a compliance officer or something like that.
I don't know exactly what it was, but he did not get the job.
And now it just, it just feels a little bit, it feels a little bit personal, truthfully.
But look, I also don't necessarily believe that the SEC's approach is abstract in this case at all.
You know, what do we expect when they go after you?
This isn't going to be a situation where they say, all right, well, I think that, you know, Solana and AVAX are securities.
And, you know, we're going to keep working hard.
And if we find any more, you know, we'll add them onto the list.
What they do is they just do a, they just do a blanket.
They throw everything they possibly can at you to see what sticks.
And then they slowly peel it back.
So a lot of what we're hearing and seeing right now, it's not going to stick.
But they're going to hit you with everything that they possibly can in hopes that a majority of it does.
So whether Gary Gensler gets removed from office forcefully, I have no idea.
I don't really care necessarily.
I don't think that, I don't think that he's acting alone in this.
Of course, he's the face of it.
But look, I mean, it's, I also think it's, it's silly to think that like Gary Gensler is single-handedly trying to bring down crypto.
Who does Gary Gensler work for at the end of the day?
I mean, he's out here to protect the banks at the end of the day, at least in my opinion.
He's here to protect all the big guys in TradFi.
So crypto, you know, crypto, not Bitcoin, crypto, I guess maybe potentially Bitcoin, never stood a chance of escaping this sort of regulatory, you know, regulatory cloud that has, you know, flown in, you know, far away from the horizon.
And it has just been like raining all over us.
Did we think that we were going to just suddenly like have global crypto adoption without the SEC getting their hands on it?
Absolutely not.
So this is that part of not just like the four-year cycle, okay, whether you believe in it or not, I don't really care.
This is that part of like the adopt, the technological adoption cycle where you have to fight for what you truly believe in.
This is that part where it becomes really difficult.
And it's reaching that point of, oh, this isn't just like some piddly little black market that a bunch of like internet nerds are gambling on.
This is becoming disruptive technology.
And the banks stand the most to lose, probably behind the United States of America, the federal government.
But I guess maybe in that order, right, the federal government and then the banks probably have the most to lose from this.
And I can assure you, just like CZ doesn't want to go down without a fight.
Talk about a big dog, you know, don't fight the Fed.
Well, guess what?
They're coming to you.
They're picking the fight.
Gary Gensler is not acting alone in this.
I mean, this is this is going to be a problem for years to come.
And whether, you know, crypto survives in the current state that it is, I don't know.
Part of me thinks that the next cycle won't there won't be as much opportunity in altcoins as there was in the past cycle.
I think it's going to be really hard, at least for us in the United States, to, you know, have some of these like on chain plays.
I have this terrible feeling in my gut and I could be wrong.
OK, I just have this feeling in my gut.
And I first started to I started to feel it and speculate on it right towards the end of last cycle that.
For one, you might not be able to custody everything as easy as you can right now to they might put try to at least attempt to put restrictions on actually transferring assets around to non-KYC wallets.
I think that'd be a natural next step because eventually it becomes extremely difficult to track.
You can send it anywhere.
I mean, it's a threat.
It's a threat to our domestic monetary policy to be able to have billions of dollars of assets leave this country without any friction for us.
You know, not that any of us in here necessarily have a billion dollars, but for the user, for the owner of those assets, of that wealth, it's unbelievable.
I mean, it's a dream to have frictionless, permissionless money and assets that can travel through space and time.
But for a government that's hoping to collect tax revenue every time that it changes hands or moves around, it's extremely disruptive and difficult for their processes.
So we'll see what ends up happening.
But, yeah, I'm absolutely in favor of like more of a committed approach, you know, than just one man, I guess, sort of steering.
Absolutely.
Dow, go ahead, brother.
Yeah, I agree with what Max is saying, man.
That was a really great analysis.
And I just noticed that, yes, I don't think that Gary Gensler is acting on his own.
He was appointed by the White House.
I think that's the process, right?
Become the chairman.
You have to be a commissioner and all of them appointed by the White House.
So he responds directly to the executive branch.
And it seems that there are some check and balances in the American institution in the sense that the judicial branch is different.
The legislative branch is different, i.e. Congress and the Senate can actually have a voice and can moderate activity of the SEC.
And I think we're starting to see some pushback.
Obviously, it's political.
It seems like most of the Democrats are on one side to stamp down crypto.
And there's some Republicans who more or less say, no, we want innovation.
But the context, in my opinion, is that Gary Gensler is a very smart guy, brilliant guy, great career in TradFi.
And he's ambitious.
And most of us, I mean, I'm sure there's a lot of financial nerds here, but most non-financial nerds don't remember Jay Clayton.
Like, the last SEC chairman is gone.
Like, he's a strategic advisor for a company that no one cares about, right?
And if you're Gary Gensler and you have ambition, if you play ball, usually people will, you know, tell you that you have, you know, opportunities here and there after your tournament is over.
And I think for him, there's been floating on Twitter and other social media that he's looking to become the next Secretary of Treasury after yelling.
So, in my humble opinion, obviously, there's no facts behind it.
It's just me trying to figure out what is going on.
So, if you follow the money, like, people like Soros or JP Morgan are the massive donors for the Democratic Party.
And, you know, there's an election that's around the corner.
If you want more funding, you need to play ball.
I think for TradFi, it's not necessarily about stamping down crypto per se.
It's simply about slowing down their adoption so they can position themselves.
JP Morgan just had an article that got released today saying that they hope that there's going to be more regulation, more clarity in the U.S. for crypto.
The CEO of Soros Corp, whatever organization he has, right after the announcement that the SEC was going after Coinbase, was at a conference saying that, hey, crypto is great.
They just need adults in the room.
So, it seems that, in my opinion, right, there's this expression that people have is, if you're a retail investor and you miss the train, you have to wait for the next train.
If you're an institution and you miss the train, you bring the train back.
And so, I don't think it's TradFi is trying to step down crypto per se.
I think they're simply trying to figure out which company, which protocol, and how to make sure that they have everything in order, that the teams, the experience, and the investment ready to onboard and to be the leaders of this new technology.
I think they're going to be a part of this new thing.
I think they're going to get bailed out.
They're either going to get bought out or they're going to have some sort of restructuring, selling of assets.
Because if you're a business, right, if you are a business that has been here for over 10 years and you are a major key infrastructure player, regardless if you like Coinbase or not, regardless if you like to trade shitcoins or not, they do have a large majority of the current Bitcoin supply on their sheets and also from their customer user base.
Regardless of the downturn in the market from institutional player activity.
So, if you can go into somewhat of that detail, because I understand that there's going to be some court hearings in regards to the current debacle between the SEC and Brian Armstrong.
Go ahead, brother.
Floor is all yours.
You kind of put me on the spot here, but I'm not saying Coinbase is going to zero or anything.
I was just saying that it's worth noting that their bond yields are pretty concerning.
They have a lot of debt and they've been slowly downsizing since basically the top of ā or since about April 2022.
And it's not making as many headlines because they're kind of just doing it slowly and perpetually.
And, yeah, their corporate debt is pretty concerning.
But I do think ā again, I agree with everything you said where I don't think that ā I think it will get backstopped because it's such an essential ā it's such an essential exchange to the ecosystem.
And then it's also, again, the only publicly traded exchange.
So, yeah, I'm not trying to like flood it or something.
I just think ā I always try to look at ā even the incredibly unlikely scenario is always worth entertaining.
And even if you're like extremely certain about whatever your thesis may be, you should always be like trying to put a probability to all the different outcomes that are the most likely to happen.
And so, yeah, it was just a little concerning.
And I was like, man, I don't know.
Also, they just ā they've fumbled a bunch of plays where, you know, if you guys remember last year, they had a Coinbase NFT platform.
And they spent a ton of money on that.
And it basically shut down.
They like released it way too late.
It literally had no volume.
And it was like basically just an open seaport.
And, yeah, it like went to zero.
And they spent a ton of money on that.
And I'm not super confident.
And, you know, I think Brian Armstrong is a really smart guy.
I think he's a good spokesperson for the company.
But I think that the people within the company are not very competent because they just aren't in tune with the culture where they don't know like what people want as far as like the users.
And it's still a relatively clunky experience as far as like if you want to like do their Coinbase wallet and stuff and all the DeFi.
Sorry, I just burped.
But, yeah, and you want to do all the DeFi and, you know, mess with stuff on chain.
It's kind of a hassle on Coinbase still.
And they've just seemed to drop the ball really consistently over the last like year and a half or so.
And it's also, you know, I don't know why their like their stock didn't catch a bid the way it should have.
It like underperformed this whole year.
Even off the like it's only up about this similar to Bitcoin.
And I still think ultimately it'll be probably be a good trade once we get in a real a real uptrend.
I'm talking about like the equity ticker coin because it's a really low market cap.
And I've discussed this before.
I think it's going to ultimately be a great deal.
And I know that there's like some other great traders who also think that it's going to be, you know, it'll be a bid.
Because I do think it has like a market cap less than like a bunch of, you know, less than like Shiba and Doge or something.
It's like eight.
I want to say it's like eight or seven billion.
But, yeah, I just it was just a little concerning about, you know, they've basically been consistently taking L's for like two years.
But, yeah, I don't know.
I don't have anything else to say about that too much.
I want to pass it back over to Matt.
Matt, I understand that you went through the horrific muted bear market of 2015, where the only thing that was trending was Monero and Dash, right?
And some XRP drama.
So given that, you know, we're starting to see some similarities, you know, towards the end of 2015, early 2016 with the issue that Bitfinex was having.
I believe they had a hack, right?
And then lots of a lot of like the infrastructure plays during the industry at that moment were having some trouble, right?
And, you know, we're currently seeing that a lot of these crypto projects that were based here in America, right?
Like Decentraland, Algorand, and Polygon, and what have you.
They're being forced out of America and being delisted off these platforms.
But really odd how Decentraland is being forced out given that recently Apple announced their Apple Vision VR headset, which, you know, whether you like it or not, that is going to be an innovative product.
And I believe it's going to be devices like that, that quote unquote starts the next wave of innovation or the metaverse and all that other stuff.
Whether crypto is integrated within it or not remains to be seen.
But why don't I know your thoughts on that, Matt?
Do you believe that this time is different or do you simply think it's just another muted year in the market relative to 2019, 2015, 2016?
Because I understand that, you know, a good friend, Joe Carlesser, Uncle Joe, believes that this time, in fact, is different.
But, you know, when I look at the equity market and the tech development space with AI and the metaverse and all those things, I kind of feel that, you know, perhaps there is some optimism for the crypto space to integrate with the TradFi tech space.
So I just want to know your thoughts on that, brother.
And also, you know, do you believe that Coinbase is going to come out of the situation alive, perhaps through an acquisition?
Right.
I understand that a couple of months ago, myself, you and Magoo were speaking upon how Citadel is actually, you know, the receiver and the maker for most of the trades in TradFi.
Similar to how Wintermute is the receiver for much of the trades that occur, quote unquote, on chain, the crypto space.
Do you believe that eventually there will be a merger between TradFi and crypto and all those things of the like?
Sorry for my sorry for my rambling.
I'm a bit excited with all these news and we have a pretty stacked speaker panel.
But before you answer, Matt, before you answer, I do understand, ladies and gentlemen, that we have a little over 200 listeners here.
So just an introduction.
We are Because Bitcoin.
We are a global financial media company that covers all things, digital assets, equity markets, commodities, emerging markets.
We do these spaces every day.
We also have YouTube shows every day and we put out real time market data, real in time.
No matter the time of the day, we're trying to be the fastest company that puts out news first at hand.
Shout out to Valentine, truly.
And if you guys, you know, enjoy the space, feel free to follow us and turn on bell notice for real time news data to keep up with all of our shows.
And just to throw it out there, starting in July, we will be focusing a lot more on YouTube.
We'll still be doing spaces, but there's going to be a major YouTube marketing campaign and content and all those things.
So feel free to check out our YouTube channel as well.
And if you guys feel like supporting us, it would really mean the world to us if you can check out our newsletter.
And feel free to try out our Discord for a seven-day free day trial.
So, Matt, go ahead.
The floor is all yours, brother.
And thank you so much for being patient.
After Matt, we'll go on over to Kane.
I know he's excited to say a few things.
And then we'll have our equities update from Tucker.
Wow, yeah.
A lot to answer there.
I'll try to take it one at a time.
Yeah, for some reason this last week, I think some of you saw it too on your timelines.
There was this realization that, wow, this bear market is so much worse than 2019.
And I can't help but chuckle to myself and feel like, where have you been?
Obviously, it's been worse than 2019.
We knew in 2022 this was worse than 2019.
Yeah, the 2015 bear market has always been my working model and still is my expectation.
Long story short, 2014 was down only, very similar to 2022.
And 2015 was a massive one-year consolidation.
Where, yes, there were some Bitcoin rallies in there and then second capitulations.
But it was largely sideways for the better part of the year.
And I still think, honestly, that's my expectation for 2023 in my heart of hearts.
But, you know, that doesn't scare me.
That doesn't depress me.
And that's a good thing.
The longer the consolidation, the stronger the bear, the stronger the bull, as they say.
So, not to mention, quite frankly, we also know that Bitcoin decoupling is a meme.
It's never true in the medium term and long term.
Bitcoin, if anything, you can argue it leads markets or you can argue it eventually follows and catches up to broader markets.
But eventually, it correlates back to the broader global economy and liquidity.
So, when that happens, both to the upside and to the downside, that's anyone's guess.
But, you know, you just take a look at NASDAQ, S&P 500, your favorite blue chips, et cetera, et cetera.
Like, if those keep putting in solid week-after-week gains, I feel like, honestly, once the summer is over, Bitcoin could snap back into a correlation with that.
And then, what was the other part?
Oh, AI.
You know, there's always a new hype.
There's always a new technology or hopium for the future.
You know, I personally think there is some legitimacy to AI.
I don't know where that goes in the short term.
If anything, the short term always seems to shake out the players from the pretenders and figure out who's investable and who's just, you know, trying to hang on for the ride.
So, it's just way too early days to make anything, say anything definitive.
But, it sure is interesting to watch.
Excellent, as always, Matt.
Thank you, brother.
Kane, I want to welcome you up to the stage.
How are you doing, brother?
What do you have for us today, Matt?
Hello.
I'm doing good.
Hello.
Thanks for having me up.
I'll keep mine short.
I really didn't have anything.
But, I noticed the theme of a lot of the talking today.
And, the theme that's being repeated, it seems, is essentially risk management.
I'm really just a button masher.
I don't spend time looking at fundamentals.
I have no desire to learn Greek and be quant.
I wake up.
I look at a chart.
I press a button.
Number to go up.
That's it.
And, I'm going to assume that most people here, if we follow up, it's Pareto Distribution, maybe one or two millionaires.
There's a couple hundred thousand or six-figure.
But, the lion's share of the people in here, you're just, like, the amount that you have to invest with or trade with is a meaningful amount of money to you as a person.
And, it seems that the common thread here is essentially risk management.
And, I would, the only thing I really have is, like, you're going to listen to a lot of people talk about a lot of different things, pontificate, muse, ramble.
So, at the end of the day, if your risk distracts you from your normal life, you need to de-risk.
Period.
Whether that's cash, whether that's Bitcoin, whatever you think it is, you need to, I would say this is a time to still be prudent on your risk.
But, Bobby, good to ask you this.
Would you say, in your opinion, is the risk of being rugged on anything in crypto higher or lower than it was two weeks ago?
I would say definitely more careful.
I did state this a couple of weeks ago, how, you know, after Pepe, I was just in a mood where if I see things cheap, I'll accumulate them.
But, I have had a couple of days where I have upped the leverage.
And, when I say upped the leverage, I mean more than, you know, the 80-20 ratio that I like to have.
By 80-20, I mean 80% cash, 20% in crypto, and then just, you know, dollar cost average in on a weekly basis.
So, there have been moments where I have gone in, but I've also gone out pretty quickly.
So, I'm in more of a quick rotational sort of standpoint, but I do believe there's going to be, like, an event later this year where you're going to have an opportunity to scoop lower prices.
But, at the same time, I do believe we might V-shape out of them.
But, as far as this current moment, like, I would not put anything where, like, you know, as you're saying, keeps me up at night, worrying about my risk.
Like, I sleep comfy.
Because, you already have a system and a structure.
You gloss over it very quickly.
But, 80-20, like, I would argue that a majority of, especially younger investors, don't even have that.
That, like, kind of going back to first principles, having some sort of dynamic playbook for where you are as an investor, as a trader, and the current conditions.
If you're younger, if you're newer to trading or investing, you have to have, you've heard people talk in the last couple months about the conditions being hard.
They have been.
It's required multiple different skill sets that change.
Like, I'm a, I love range trading.
I have not been, it's not been my jam to have NASDAQ go up only.
Like, it took me a minute to adjust.
But, I'm not going to ramble.
I appreciate you guys having me up.
I enjoy listening to all the talks and the views.
Yeah, it's just been, it's been a fun market to trade.
Equities have.
Bitcoin is hot garbage right now.
So, no thanks.
I'll pass on that.
Yeah, it's, it's, it's definitely kind of, like, muted over the last couple of days.
And something that I've been doing is, you know, buying LDL anytime it dipped below two bucks and it would, you know, pump 15, 20%.
I mean, it's still up, like, 10%, 8% off the low.
But, I did expect, you know, some more volatility towards the upside.
But, I have, I have, like, a feeling in my gut that we might be in for, for a shakeout.
And then a rip.
But, if we rip, I'm still positioned for it.
And, and that's, that's the thing.
How I'm coming into, you know, the halving cycle.
Being prepared for anything really going into the halving.
If we nuke and knack 40%, I'm ready for it.
If we rip and then do nothing until the halving, I'm ready for it.
And, there are a few, there are a few times in your life where you end up having one, two, three big trades in a short period of time.
That really have you in a more relaxed state.
I don't feel a need to just be behind charts all day, man.
I hate to say it, but, like, meme coin season kind of, like, helped me out a bit.
It gave me that extra budge.
So, you know.
No, don't, don't, don't hate to say it.
Don't hate to say it.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Yeah, because I understand, I understand, I understand that, like, when some people bring up tickers and price action and all that stuff, they, they, like, the people on the receiving end kind of feel like, oh, you know, I've been sidelined.
It's all, like, I've, I've lost money.
So, I don't want to, like, ruffle any feathers here or anything of the sort.
But, you know, these, everyone's time will come.
Like, eventually you will get that banger where you can kind of just sit back and be like, you know what, man?
I just want to accumulate high caps because in two or three years, prices will be higher.
And, you know, whatever time perspective you have that you're comfortable in, dollar cost averaging, just go ahead, go for it.
But I feel pretty comfortable in my 80-20.
And when I say 20, you know, this thing can extend all the way to, like, 28, 29.
And then, you know, I'll rotate that for extreme dips.
But I would say after, after the halving, that's when, of course, I, I, I upped the ante because, you know, new projects come on.
And one thing that I'm excited about, not to shell or anything, is ordinals.
I actually feel more, like, comfortable looking at things being built on BRC-20s, ordinals, all that stuff, more so than, like, on-chain stuff.
But we'll see how that plays out, right?
We'll see, we'll see how that plays out.
But I want to pass it on over to Tucker.
Tucker, what do you have for us, man?
What did you see in the equity markets today, man?
And what are your thoughts going into FOMC tomorrow?
And I do want to share this to the panel as far as rates being paused or risen.
I believe Credit Suisse actually thinks that they're going to raise hikes.
I don't even know why they even have an opinion still.
But Citibank, Visa, Credit Suisse believe that we're going to get a 25 basis point hike.
The only entity that believes that we're actually going to get a cut is Parkway Advisors.
But individual entities such as Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley believe that they're actually going to pause.
So I want to know your thoughts on that, Tucker.
Are we going to get a pause?
How are you feeling about the equity markets?
What are you seeing, brother?
And good to have you.
And thank you for being patient up on the panel, man.
Yeah, yeah, for sure, man.
Just been enjoying the discussion.
And I love what you were saying, Cain, about risk management, because that's what I was thinking the whole time that you guys were going back and forth about B&B is just risk management, right?
It's like if it looks and smells like FTX, like I have zero incentive to, A, hold B&B, obviously.
B, you know, be bidding altcoins right now, in my opinion, just personally, right?
But like, you know, what's the RR here, right?
Like, the risk is so great that it, you know, that they rug and pull an FTX.
It's just not, you know, in my personal opinion, it's just the RR is not there for me.
But just wanted to say that and shout out Cain real quick.
But yeah, yeah.
In terms of equities, you know, obviously we had a great CPI print today.
Everything was as expected.
Obviously, we beat by 10 basis points to the downside on CPI.
Everything else was literally in line with expectations, which has been the trend the last few months.
You can pretty much go off of their consensus expectations, and they've been pretty dead on.
You know, obviously, as opposed to at the beginning of the hiking cycle, they were off by anywhere from like 30, 40, 50 basis points.
So that's kind of been nice.
But yeah, in terms of tomorrow, I'm thinking that we get a pause for sure because it's priced in and Powell does.
He never deviates from what's priced in.
So I don't really expect any shenanigans there.
I don't know who these people are that are expecting a rate cut, but they're wrong.
And obviously, Credit Suisse's opinion is invalid.
So yeah, no, I'm definitely expecting a pause.
The issue, and I was talking about this earlier today, is if he throws in language around a skip, which is just so dumb, in my opinion.
Honestly, transparently, I think if they pause tomorrow, that they're done, regardless of the language.
Which, right, I really probably think they're done.
But if he does throw in language about potentially hiking at the next meeting, given that it's already priced in 60%, that we do get a hike at the next meeting, which obviously that'll change tomorrow.
It'll throw a wrench in, you know, the Goldilocks period rally thesis a little bit, right?
And there's a few things that I wanted to touch on there.
A, this Goldilocks period of risk rallying, you know, post-pause, pre-cut, has pretty much been front-run for like a year at this point.
Not a year, six to nine months at this point, right?
The market has been bidding pause the last six meetings, basically.
So I question how much more room for upside there is from that standpoint.
Um, I can't remember my other point there.
But, yeah, I think, I think we get a pause, we get a rally, it's muted, right?
I don't, I'm not expecting anything super explosive.
You know, obviously we'll get a whipsaw tomorrow.
It happens every time.
But, um, I think just from the recent moves and positioning from what I've been saying of, um, asset managers getting short and hedge funds covering their shorts, which is activity we saw around Jackson Hole last year.
I think with the overextension we've already seen from this rally combined with the front running of the pause, that while I think we'll get upside from a rally or from a pause, that it will be muted.
So those are the things I think, um, are kind of put together to bring, you know, have that thesis.
But, um, yeah, I mean, in general, I think, you know, it's a pause, it's a rally, it's, it's nothing, it's nothing crazy or special.
But what's, what's going to be interesting is how the market reacts next week, the week after, right?
The, the interim between now and the next meeting, given a pause, right?
And especially whether he, whether or not he uses skip language.
Um, so yeah, that's, that's kind of what I'm expecting for tomorrow.
Um, but yeah, I think, I think that's about everything.
Actually, that's, that's all I can think of.
Matt, go ahead, brother.
Yeah.
Um, I agree with Tucker.
And, uh, some of the other sentiments, I think pause is priced in tomorrow.
And so we have to ask ourselves, you know, smart money loves to look forward to the next
catalyst.
And what's that next catalyst?
I think it's later in the week, initial jobless claims, and then later unemployment.
Uh, last week we had a, a little bit of a spike in initial jobless claims, a little higher
than expected.
It was, um, don't quote me on this, but I think it was like two, 260 K.
Something roughly that 260, 270 K.
And they're expecting lower.
Um, I think the markets want to see that as a one-off.
They'd, they, they would sleep better at night.
At least the bulls would sleep better at night.
If it came back this week as 250 or even lower.
But if, if it's another higher print, initial jobless claims of maybe 270, 280, or God forbid,
300, that's a perfect catalyst reason that the bulls are going to take some profits is
now you're getting tea leaves of, wait a minute, is the jobs market starting to finally soften,
maybe even turn over.
Um, I've, I've said multiple times that, look, I'm, I lean bullish.
I'm, I'm, I'm bullish, uh, uh, uh, leaning because of the jobs market, because we still
haven't seen unemployment soften.
We haven't seen this big, uh, uh, jobs capitulation and everyone getting fired.
It's been rock solid 3.5% for almost two years now, better, the better part of a year and
a half.
And no matter how hard the bears try to squint, um, you can't find that bearish data in the
last 18 months, but that doesn't mean anything about tomorrow.
So if we start to see that soften, like, yes, I absolutely, I absolutely change my short-term
medium-term thesis and I absolutely will, you know, take that data into account.
So let's see what, you know, fed funds, the pause, it's almost all already done.
And so the market is going to look for what's next.
And I think it's jobs.
We have Will's Outlook.
Will's Outlook, welcome to the panel, man.
Want to give you some stage time.
What are your thoughts, brother?
How are you feeling, man?
I'm good.
I mean, I'm more on the bullish side on crypto.
I'm not going to lie.
I know a lot of people are, you know, kind of down and out on the positions, but, um,
just a lot of pattern play really, you know, I'm playing out the patterns.
Everything looks like a flying out for upside.
Uh, we're getting kind of slowing, winding down pressure to the downside where, you know,
you're getting to a point, you're getting to a pinch point where price has to make a reaction
at some point.
Right.
And if you can't entice sellers and you have to entice buyers, that's basically it at the end
of the day.
Um, and that's, that's what I think we're leaning more towards right now, at least for
Bitcoin.
I'm not talking about for like the whole crypto market as a whole.
I think risk is really taking a smack in the face when it comes to crypto.
Like your, your, your, your S coins, everything just got completely obliterated.
Uh, Cardano got smacked.
I'll go got smacked.
Like there's a lot of good projects out there that got really crushed.
Um, but they all, to me, you know, when I looked across the board, like a lot of people
were very scared, like, Hey, this thing's going to go deeper.
I looked around a lot of bullish divs, a lot of bullish divs.
So like, I'm playing, I'm playing the charts as they are right now with, with liquidity.
Now, can these things fall deeper?
For sure.
They can.
Um, I just, I think you're so close to the downside that like, is there, is there a point
in bidding much lower as opposed to DCA until you get to that lower?
And I think that's really kind of the question that people have to ask themselves.
That's kind of the position I put myself into.
I put myself into a retail, retail investor position, which is not, you know, sell my
bags at the high and then, or not, not, I met at the low and then buy my bags at the
high, but more in the, in the aspect of taking a long-term perspective on a lot of my entries.
So I'm looking for things rolling floors, things that are kind of very, very, very undervalued.
Um, I had discussions with Max.
We talked about ARC and all these other things that, that, you know, have been just completely
obliterated throughout the year.
Um, and even if they see lows again, like they're, they're so close to their, I would,
what I would consider their lowest points to where it's like either the company is going
out of business or, or it's, it's found, it's found a low, you know, it's found, it's found
the, it's close enough to the low where it's a safe buy.
I would put it that way.
Right.
Um, there needs to come a point where you had to be like, all right, I'm safe to start putting
money in versus a, we're still in a waterfall pattern.
I don't think we're in a waterfall pattern anymore.
I think if we see more downside, it'll be slow.
It'll be degraded.
It'll, it'll be, it'll be ridiculous.
Like it'll feel horrible, but that's, that's how bottoms tend to tend to round out.
Um, I think we're in a bigger distributive pattern with Bitcoin.
Um, we are in a distributive top, but that distributive top still goes higher in my perspective.
Um, but it rounds out into an ABC back down the light 1920 K as the support into the next
move up.
If we're going to see that higher low, um, you know, so like when it looks, when I look
at that, that makes me optimistic.
When I look at, at NVIDIA and Apple, I don't know about Apple, man.
I'm looking, I'm going to just keep putting that out.
I don't know about that one.
Um, there's just not a lot of, not a lot of upside you can really make out of that.
It's a trillion dollar company.
Um, you know, they're, they're bidding AR, but I can tell you this, if you look into Microsoft,
you'll believe me, you'll understand that Microsoft is way ahead of Apple when it comes
to AR and VR.
Um, yeah.
And then on top of that too, we, we've discussed Facebook.
Facebook's like a kid's version of VR more or less with a little bit of AR interaction
and all that good stuff.
But if you guys worked in a space of AR, you, you would understand that VR, like I've worked
in that space for quite a bit of time.
Um, and I, I know a lot of the market leaders, um, at least on the construction side of things.
Right.
So like, when I look at that, like, I already know where that, where that liquidity holds
value.
And that value to me would be in companies like Microsoft, potentially even Facebook.
I mean, Apple may try to sell, but like, I just, you know, I don't see them catch it
up out of nowhere, unless, unless they can, you know, maybe, maybe buy a company that's
already kind of, you know, in the know and in the move when it comes to AR.
AR, VR.
So I'm not as bullish on them as I am at something like Microsoft or Google or something like
that.
I think Google's, you know, they're kind of showing their face too.
They're not really kept.
I mean, they caught a bid, they broke out and they're kind of just settling here.
Uh, Amazon, I think is, is still decently undervalued a little bit, um, based on, based
on the rest of the other, uh, big tech companies, right?
If you look at it for a percentage for a percentage, uh, Amazon is, is the trailing, right?
Of, of, of, of all the bigger ones.
So very interesting price action, especially when you look at something like AWS, for instance,
which has to me, you know, infinite value, really.
I mean, your top 100 companies are using AWS.
You got a good, good chunk of the, of the world on AWS using that as their front face for
their platforms and everything else.
Um, it's pretty crazy that, that Amazon sits where it sits, but you know, as far as a price
per value against these other, these other stock companies.
So I, I, again, I think there's, there's room for upside, um, spy.
This is something I discussed with max too.
Um, it's really weird.
It's really crazy.
I do fully anticipate this to play out, but every time spy has found a bottom, uh, historically
and, or gotten to a bottom, it tends to come back down.
And I say tens as an always comes back down to form a lower low, um, on a second bottom.
And it always W's out of its position.
It never B's it's a really weird pattern, but if you just scroll out, put it on the weekly
monthly, you'll see exactly what I'm talking about.
Uh, 2000 to 2010 was, was a double.
The COVID lows were, were a double into a lower low, um, current market.
I expected to double into a lower low.
And then previous markets, I expected to double into a lower low, but they have, they have doubled
into a low low.
Now, does that mean there's not room for upside?
Of course there's room for upside.
Um, every time spy has historically done that, it's either a double top, right?
Before it's, it's formed a lower low or B gone over the previous high, which is potential
to, right?
It has done that.
Um, and when, you know, the good 20, 30% beyond all time high before it is a foreign forming
that lower low again.
Uh, another thing too, that I think people should keep an eye on, and this is a really important
one.
I would say something I discussed with, uh, the BB group this morning is the 10 and the
two, right?
The yield inversion.
So we are still inverted.
And once you see that un-inversion, you need to be highly cautious of the market, you know,
looking to tip back over.
I realistically think we will see that un-inversion about the same time spy tops.
If not a little bit past, if it's going to go higher, if it's going to form a higher high,
it'll be a little bit past.
It'll be basically like an ABC move and then a run right back for the lows again.
Historically after the un-inversion, we've gone into recession scenarios, right?
And that's why I think a lot of, a lot of traders, a lot of people positioning, you
know, like the downside was there, but you're only on the first end of the curve,
right?
You're going to get a secondary, at least on the spies end, right?
As far as other indices, like I've seen them bottom about the same time spy does, but they
don't historically always form lower lows.
There's been quite a few times, like, you know, you got DJI and it's other ones like
they'll all form higher lows or something like that.
But at the end of the day, let spy do what it does.
Follow the spy, follow the 10 of the two, understand once the un-inversion happens, that's your time
to be really kind of risk off and more, you know, looking for good entries because you're
going to get a second chance to re-enter the market, I think, at better prices, right?
At better valuations.
So like, if you were a bear, you missed the run, like you could take it up to the highs,
but I think like taking it beyond that.
And this is why I'm like optimistic on, I know I'm talking a lot, optimistic on crypto,
though, because I think about the time we see the un-inversion is probably after the
bull market.
It's really weird, but usually about one year after the un-inversion is where you start
to see that recessionary fear.
And that'll be like your bubble pop and then crypto go back to its lows again.
And then spy will form a lower low and DJI will probably form a higher low and Russell
will probably form a higher low and so on and so forth.
And then everybody will say it's over again and how all these things are going to happen.
But once you get that lower low in the spy, you got to take bids.
It's 100% you got to take bids.
I'm not up here offering financial advice, just giving you my opinion on the different
things that I align to try and follow through with that.
One more thing to add to that is watch oil.
Oil is literally round bottoming, right?
So if all this plays, oil is going to ramp back up again.
Inflation is going to ramp back up again.
I would say in two, three years.
And I think that that's going to be the catalyst for this double top pattern for spy,
if not a little bit higher, into lower lows.
But I think you have room to bid here, right?
You do have room to bid if you want to bid long here.
I just think that like either A, being all in and then understanding that you got to get
out or B, being partially in, having dry powder ready to go for buying more dips is a good
scenario here, even if prices reach all time highs with spy and these other indices also.
So indices are a great way to evaluate it.
But spy, oil, you know, inversion of the 10 and the 2, these are all important signals
that I think people should really pay attention to moving forward.
I want to mention something real quick.
It's been kind of evolving.
This is a really entertaining bear market in crypto.
We have CZ tweeting at 52K SKU, who's a really good, I assume, derivatives trader.
I don't know exactly what he trades, but he's a really good trader.
52K SKU was basically overlaying Bitcoin and BNB with, you know, CVD, you know, spot and
perp CVD, basically indicating that perhaps Binance was actually selling, you know, their
Bitcoin into Tether, you know, basically to prop up BNB, either through perps or, you
know, converting Tether to spot Bitcoin.
And then CZ fired back at him and said, for basically, that's that's not true.
That's FUD.
And then he actually screenshotted 52K SKU's tweet and then put out his own tweet and said,
for this is CZ's tweet now for Binance have not sold Bitcoin or BNB.
We even still have a bag of FTT.
It is amazing.
They can know exactly who sold based on just a price chart involving millions of traders,
FUD.
So maybe Binance isn't selling unless CZ's getting cute with his words.
Just saying.
I think he's getting cute.
I think he's getting cute with his words there.
And the market isn't really buying it either.
Or else you would have seen it squeezed pretty hard.
I think he's getting cute with his words there.
No one's accusing CZ and Binance of selling BNB token.
They're freaking out because they think they're buying their token back.
I think Travis Kling has a great reply to CZ as well.
He says, you know, quite to sum it up, quite frankly, you've Binance has been caught commingling
customer funds with their own assets.
So it's kind of hard to take your word for any of this.
I think he's probably getting cute with his words as well.
I mean, he was pretty specific.
He said, Binance have not sold Bitcoin or BNB.
Okay.
Are you selling something else?
I don't know.
We even still have a bag of FTT.
Okay.
Probably because there's nobody to unload it on.
You know, it's just.
Yeah.
Who would you even sell that?
I think he's getting cute with his words.
BNB is not even a good deal.
Like who is bidding this?
I just don't understand it.
Like everything is skewed towards.
He's not.
He's not Doquan.
Yeah.
He's not an idiot.
I know one is accusing CZ and Binance of selling BNB.
This whole this whole worry out there is why are they buying it back?
Yeah.
Well, they could also be converting BTC to BNB and that still follows his statement.
But all I know is that he should not mention FTT, BNB, and Bitcoin in the same sentence.
Yeah.
Facts, man.
Yeah.
We'll see how this plays out.
It kind of feels like the calm before the storm.
I don't think the market is buying it or else I think we would have squeezed a lot harder
off that and then Sisyphus and a bunch of people were saying in Silico, too, that they're just
they're saying don't buy it.
Yeah.
I don't think it's I don't think it's just time to go super long or believe in base value
right here because I feel like a bunch of people are going to press him.
And the more he replies and talks about the situation, the more room for error there is.
And so, yeah, let's see.
It doesn't seem like a great trade to be long here unless you're really trying to just maybe
catch a squeeze or something.
Man, I got to say, like you said, Max, this is the most entertaining bear market of all time.
And there's nothing that can really top that because you get to just interact with billionaires
and you have billionaires screenshotting CT, like pseudo anonymous people on CT and like
posting GIFs and and just saying for like when the SEC news came out, I'm like crypto
is so everyone in crypto is so mentally ill.
And this this space is so like I agree with you on that, Mercury.
I definitely agree with you on that.
There are a lot of mentally deranged people that will save the most.
Bile thinks the strangers, dude, like what you bought this token.
Oh, my gosh, you are the worst person in mankind.
You know what I mean?
It's unreal.
Like when when the SEC news comes out, everyone's sitting idly like waiting.
Is this billionaire going to tweet like a paragraph and like denounce everything?
Or is he just going to tweet for that was the state of the market that day for dude for.
Twitter is literally just like it's like everybody knows everybody right now.
The fact that CZ's like replying to these these traders and like getting in the weeds and even
seeing this stuff is just hilarious to me, man.
It's so funny.
It's so entertaining, man.
It's this just the best, you know, it's in the world.
I agree with Tucker, though, like the fact that he is doing that.
And by the way, I'm texting Tommy about this as well.
We were talking about it before I just kind of narrated it here on the space.
I it's kind of it doesn't feel like this is bullish reinforcement from CZ.
This feels kind of like panic tweeting to me where like Caroline's coming out saying
like, like, like we'll buy all your FTT at twenty two dollars or whatever.
Like this is just kind of it just doesn't feel right.
You know, this this feels bizarre to me.
I think there's there's something going on for sure.
You know, and at a minimum, if something's not going on, I think that finance or CZ is
probably feeling the walls caving in because he knows that if BNB goes down, it probably
makes their situation worse.
I don't know what that means.
We don't know what kind of like hidden leverage is behind this.
But yeah, this doesn't feel bullish.
And I also don't like that he's mentioning FTT.
So I'll just speak objectively as a purely I'm a chartist, right?
That's the only thing that I know.
I don't know anything about CZ and his balance sheet.
I don't even know CVD, truthfully.
I just know my system.
And I was telling Payne this earlier in DMs.
If you go look at the BNB chart, we tested that range low that everyone and their mother
and their grandmother even has drawn on the chart 220.
We tested that.
We bounced from it and we reclaimed a key local trend.
If you go look at the 15 minute 200 MA and 200 EMA, they're a beautiful trend portrayal
for the way down.
And we just reversed it.
We tested that support.
We're currently bouncing off of it.
So I'm not saying by BNB, I'm not saying that the FUD is true or that the price or like
the chart is the arbiter of truth.
I don't know anything about that.
All I know is objectively, if I was totally detached from all of crypto, I didn't know
anything about crypto Twitter.
I didn't know who CZ was.
And I just was scanning through the altcoin market.
BNB looks a lot better than some of these altcoins as it stands.
And that started all of 6 a.m.
this morning.
Mercury, don't you guys think there's a counter argument to that?
Because if we looked at Luna, and again, you didn't know anything about Luna, the way
it worked and all that stuff, and you're like, shit, Luna's 60 bucks.
The all-time high was 130.
This thing looks good.
But yeah, you didn't know the mechanisms behind it.
Wouldn't you say the same thing would apply for BNB, given that there's some evidence
coming out?
You know what, Wabi?
I was trading Luna on the way up into that high, and I made money on it.
I made money because I didn't know anything about the tokenomics.
I was just trading the trend.
And if you go look at the Luna chart, before it went to zero, it was using three hours.
I know that's very obscure.
What I'm about to tell you is very obscure.
You're going to be like, what the hell?
What are you using?
But I'm always just going to try and find the best, most efficient trend per trail, because
I only use 200 MA and 200 EMA.
So I'm not using 55 EMA, 88, 100, 150.
I'm not using all that.
So I just need to switch the time frame to find something that's actionable for me.
I traded Luna on the way up, and then it broke the trend, and then I didn't touch it
again.
I don't short very often, so I just didn't touch it again.
And ever since it lost that trend, it went to zero.
That doesn't, I don't care about that, because that's what a stop loss is for.
So, I mean, I traded the trend.
It went up.
I made money.
It lost the trend.
I inevitably have to give back money because I'm a trend trader, and trends break.
That's what they do.
And then after that, I don't look at it again.
And then the chart looks like shit, and then it goes to zero, or it doesn't, or it pulls back
deeper, and then it reclaims the trend again, and I pay attention to it.
Whatever, right?
But all I'm saying is that BNB reclaimed a local trend after testing the same range low
that it's been testing for the past year, and it bounced, and that's it.
That's all I'm saying.
There's still a high time frame trend portrayal.
There's still the mid-range.
There's still the range.
Like, I'm not saying it's out of the woods yet.
I'm not saying it's the greatest discount in the world.
I'm not saying any of that.
All I'm saying is, purely if I were to just look at the chart, it set up a scalp long,
and that scalp long would currently be up about 4% right now.
Mercury is correct, by the way.
Like, if you ignore all of it, and you understand how to, like, read lower time frame candles
and trends, it actually looks good.
But I don't trade BNB regardless.
Like, I've never traded.
I think I've taken, like, one trade on it ever.
I tried to short it once, got stopped out within, like, an hour, and was like, I'm good.
I don't want to trade BNB.
I have, like, 5 to 10 names that I like to kind of stick with that I really understand
how they move.
But, yeah, I mean, Mercury is correct.
Like, if this is all just 4, as CZ says, it looks really good, you know?
But then I also agree with Matt.
It's like, why does it look so good, you know?
It is hard to just blatantly ignore what's going on.
There's a lot of traders, some that I know personally, that do not take into consideration
the news at all.
They do not look at it.
They don't weigh it in their trade decisions at all.
And they are literally lights-out traders.
And they just trade, like, strictly price action and momentum.
And, I mean, what Mercury's saying is true.
Like, you could have made money on bounces, like, right before the FTT collapse.
And I've no doubt that Mercury and other traders did.
But it's, you know, it's not necessarily a game that I like to play personally.
I mean, I'm a part of a crypto media company.
So I do the exact opposite of ignore the news.
But, yeah, it's ā I mean, he's right.
Like, it actually looks good.
It's just a little sketchy, truthfully.
Yeah.
And I was saying, too, when I was talking to Mercury earlier, he pointed that out.
And I was grateful he did.
And I think I agreed with him.
And I was like, yeah, it's fine.
I'm not ā I told him, you can ask him.
I was like, yeah, it's not a short year.
Definitely wouldn't short it year.
Like, but I could see it just being a trap or something.
And then he was like ā it was cool because he's telling me about the technicals.
And I was telling him about the fundamentals.
And I think ultimately, like, everyone has a different system.
But that's the system that works for me personally where I try to just incorporate, you know, as much information as I can from all the different, I guess, styles of trading.
And then just, like, form a thesis based on, like, you know, my own thoughts of the probabilities of different outcomes.
And so, yeah, everyone has different styles and stuff.
But I do think fundamentals are important.
And I don't know if they are more important than technicals or less.
That's a whole different argument.
But I think you shouldn't just ignore information from anything.
You should just be soaking up information from as many different people or types of content as far as, like, if it's technicals or if it's news or if it's, you know, tokenomics or who the holders are, how many holders there are, you know, what they're doing.
You know, you should just be sourcing information from all these different places.
I think that's probably the best ā one of the better strategies.
You know, boxing yourself.
Obviously, like, Mercury is an absolute beast.
He's in, like, the, you know, top 2% of traders on this app as far as technicals.
Not many people can do technicals, but that's what he's good at.
And so he knows that and he kicks ass.
But that's not, you know, I know technicals, but I'm not, like, some ā I'm not great at TA as far as, like, just the way, you know, I don't ā you know, I just look at shit.
I'm like, oh, Charlie's pretty decent.
But I also like sentiment trading and stuff as well.
You know, like, buying a bunch of hated rallies this whole year was, like, basically all my best trades.
And, yeah, it's pretty ā I mean, that's what's beautiful about trading is that everyone can find success in different ways.
But personally, I think that you should just be soaking up information from as many different places and people as possible.
Awesome, guys.
This was a very informative discussion.
We had all sorts of viewpoints here on the panel.
I want to thank all the speakers.
Shout out to all the speakers once again.
Feel free to follow them, ladies and gentlemen.
And if you guys enjoyed this conversation, we are Because Bitcoin.
We're a global financial media startup company.
We're roughly about six months old.
And we produce content here on Twitter.
Give real-time data.
Do Twitter spaces, as you guys are experiencing right now.
Put out threads on all things of the like regarding all financial markets.
And we also produce some YouTube content.
So feel free to give us a follow.
Shout out to Mercury.
Thank you so much for taking the time out of your lovely day to come up and talk some shop, technicals, and all that stuff.
Shout out to Payne, Matt, Tucker, Max, Will, Snorlax, and all the other people up on the panel.
So feel free to give us a follow.
Every single follow counts.
Turn on bell notice if you want to get some real-time data.
I saw that Max requested to speak up once again.
So feel free to tune in tomorrow, ladies and gentlemen, for our post-FOMC Twitter space.
We're going to have a number of people on the panel as well.
I'm going to go ahead and tweet that out probably tomorrow after our YouTube show.
So right at around 12 p.m., 1 p.m. Eastern time, once I have everything locked in with our guests, I'll go ahead and tweet out our post-FOMC spaces.
And thank you all so much.
Max, are you able to hear me, brother?
It seems that Max dropped off.
But, yeah, we'll wait for him to give our closing statements.
But any last words, guys?
Mercury, is there anything else that you want to say before we close the panel?
Brother, thank you once again, man.
Nothing that I want to say.
I just want to thank you guys.
It's always fun to come in here and talk to you guys.
Payne, Matt, Wabi, Max, all you guys.
I just really appreciate it.
It feels like a safe space.
I get to come in here and chat with like-minded people.
That's awesome, man.
It's always a good time.
Hell yeah, bro.
Much love to all you guys.
It's all out.
That's what we're trying to do here, man.
We want Because Bitcoin to be a hub where, you know, if you want to throw up a space, you come and collaborate with us.
And we'll engage with your audience and all that good stuff.
And that's another thing that I want to mention.
If you guys are a part of any community and you want to collaborate with us, our DMs are open.
Of course, that is subject to approval by myself and the rest of the team.
But if you guys are a part of a community, you guys want to collaborate on a Twitter space or on a YouTube panel, feel free to reach out to us.
If you're a part of a project that you feel, you know, could use some spotlight, you know, we'll try to bring them in for our roundtable spaces and talk all things markets.
Or even for yourself, if you ever want to come up on the panel and speak, we'll see what we can do.
So thank you, Mercury, man.
You know, we wouldn't be here if it weren't for individuals that would actually want to partake in these situations.
We very much enjoy having a panel with diverse opinions and from different markets.
Just last week, you know, we had Michael Green and we were talking Bitcoin.
And, you know, Max and him were kind of going back and forth.
We had some really good conversation with a few individuals that week.
So thank you so much, Mercury.
Appreciate all the love, Big Doug.
Payne, any last words, brother, before we wrap up?
Not really.
I would probably just definitely keep an eye on this B&B situation.
I think it's probably my stomach is telling me that I'm going to get some volatility one way or another.
So that's about it.
Matt, any final words, brother?
Yeah, I have a simple rule.
If I don't understand what's going on with an equity or an asset, then by definition, I'm the sucker.
I'm the idiot in the trade.
So if you find yourself in that situation, just stay away.
Don't overthink it.
Beautiful, man.
Tucker, any last words, brother?
Tucker, there it is.
There's the thumbs down.
Snorlax, any last words, brother?
Not too much.
Just, you know, Binance News gives you a little bit of a pit deep in your stomach after everything that happened last year.
So hopefully nothing too serious there.
And yeah, Bitcoin dominance.
That's, I mean, that's how I would be trading it personally.
Flight to safety.
Beautiful, brother.
Will's Outlook.
Any last words, brother?
There's the thumbs down, man.
You got to love it when Will's Outlook just does the thumbs down.
Max, feel free to give the closing statement.
Then I'll shut off the space, man.
Floor is all yours, man.
Yes, sir.
All right, guys.
Great space.
Really great space.
I enjoyed this conversation.
Big thank you to everybody that came up and spoke today.
Our special guest today, Mercury as well.
Mercury, it's always great speaking with you.
I hope you'll come back soon, especially if we get some more interesting price action developing.
But I also agree with Tommy.
There's nothing that I hate more than serious risk to the space or systemic risk that affects a lot more than just your net worth.
It's scary, truthfully.
We're looking at it now and we're talking, oh, what if BNB goes to $100?
Or what if ETH goes on to make new lows?
And Bitcoin does too.
It's scary when that happens, even if you're expecting it or preparing for it, because the FUD doesn't stop there.
Then the stablecoin FUD comes about.
Then the exchange FUD happens.
And then you're losing sleep.
And it's really crappy.
So, look, I just want to urge everybody, just protect yourself, even if all of this ends up resolving itself.
And it may and it may not.
I don't know.
I don't have a crystal ball.
But just protect yourself.
Do not go all in on anything and just protect yourself because things can escalate quickly.
One minute they're fine and the next minute they're not.
And I guess it works the other way, too.
One minute everything's melting down and you feel like, you know, the sky is falling and then suddenly you get a, you know, a God candle and we come back from the dead and we're resurrected.
Yeah, Mercury, I see you got your hand up there.
Go ahead, man.
Yeah, man, I'm sorry.
I know you're closing out, but I just wanted to add one thing to that.
Is it possible that we're all just traumatized and we kind of have like PTSD and we're experiencing the same thing that we experienced?
Yes.
But at the same time, it is good to be paranoid, especially when you're in something as new as crypto.
You're going to survive if you're paranoid.
And that's the only way that you will survive if you have a constant sort of sense of paranoia.
And that's going to be the thing that really allows you to continue moving forward.
And again, I know I've said this before in a previous space, but you just brought it up and touched on it a little bit, is the definition of a bear market has totally been redefined with this bear market specifically.
And that is it's not just about price going down anymore.
It's about hedge funds going out of business.
It's about people moving offshore.
It's about exchanges being insolvent.
It's about stable coins getting depegged.
So really, at the end of the day, if you're still here after all of that, all you have to do is stay paranoid and make sure that you survive in all of those senses.
Risk management, that term has been totally redefined.
It's not just about how much are you risking per trade.
It's about how exposed are you to a specific exchange or any exchange or are you on a liquidity pool that's potentially going to get hacked or all of these kinds of things.
Is your stable coin actually stable?
So survival is number one priority.
And then when the conditions get better, we can thrive.
And that's all I just I wanted to say.
I'm happy that you put your hand up.
That's a really good point.
And, you know, look, with with what happened with FTX, too, the lesson with all that is one, not your keys, not your coins.
You know, learn how to custody your own assets, ideally in cold storage.
But if not, you know, a wallet that you control the keys to.
And second, with crypto, be the first one out the door.
You know, don't be the one, you know, out here posting.
Oh, I, you know, I for one, I'm standing by FTX.
Like I, you know, this is all FUD and I'm actually depositing more money to trade with.
You know, look how that age when these events happen, even if you're overly paranoid, be the first one to panic, not the last.
Because guess what?
A lot of people still got their money out of FTX.
I believe like a billion or multiple billions in withdrawals were processed up until the point that they couldn't they couldn't make good on them anymore.
So just again, I don't know if this is going to happen or not.
We could be talking about literally nothing right now.
And I hope that we are for what it's worth.
But if things escalate, be the first one to panic, not the last.
But yeah, guys, thanks for tuning in.
Thanks so much for being here.
This is a really great discussion.
Please give everybody on the panel a follow.
And yeah, like Wabi said, we're because Bitcoin, we're a financial media company with a very heavy emphasis on Bitcoin and digital assets.
We also are rolling out some products that help support the business.
If you want to learn more from us and get a more intimate look at how we position in these markets and how we narrate, you know, help support us, help support the business.
I know there's not a lot of demand in bear markets for premium Discord services or newsletters, but I promise we work very hard to make it worth your while.
So consider giving it a try.
We do free trials on all of our stuff.
So definitely check it out.
It's in our bio.
And yeah, we'll see you guys tomorrow.
We run these spaces every single day.
So take care, guys.
Much love, guys.
We run these spaces every single day.
