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Crypto Chat & Price Talk | Andy 0x68 | Wolf 0x67
Recorded: April 8, 2025 Duration: 1:31:31Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the impact of geopolitical tensions and tariffs on market dynamics, emphasizing the importance of community engagement and resilience. As the market faces potential declines, optimism remains high for recovery driven by strategic negotiations and macroeconomic factors.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. hey guys well we're while we're getting situated here please do me a favor and like and retweet
the space let's share it some group chats let's uh let's get this thing out there let's vibe
we're just gonna get sorted out here let's get some more people in here
and uh and vibe out Thank you. . Thank you. All right, we got 100.
That's a start.
That's a start. That's a start.
Let's go.
Let's like, retweet the space.
Let's get some more people in here.
Then we're going to hear our boy Max Cook. Thank you. All righty, everybody.
Good morning, good evening, good afternoon.
Hope everybody is doing well.
Hope everybody is a Donald Trump tariff enjoyer.
All you can do is kind of laugh because it's just, it's crazy.
It's just getting wild out there. Certainly exceeding even the most negative of expectations,
but here we are, right? All we can do is kind of be along for the ride and read and react and hope for the best, right? So we're going to talk about a lot of different things today.
My hope is that we'll kind of make this more of a discussion.
I know our man Louie was going to be joining us here shortly as well.
Because I think perhaps the best way to go about this is to just kind of talk about the market as a whole. And there's going to
be, you know, maybe a little bit of, here's the thing, I don't want to call it baseless speculation,
but it's like, you have to kind of speculate on what comes next, because it's, we're in such a
weird, sensitive, you know, news driven part of whatever cycle phase this is, right, where
the entire market is basically beholden to whatever's going on with this tariff war.
So I think we need to speculate a little bit. And normally I wouldn't lean into the news so much
because I've always sort of been an advocate that you show me the chart and I'll tell you the news.
But usually the news isn't this pressing.
Usually stocks are not nuking 20% in two weeks.
So it's a very bizarre time in markets.
It's a very bizarre time in markets. It's a very unique time. It's a very sensitive time.
And I think it's probably best to just kind of talk about a few different scenarios on how this
thing eventually resolves, right? Because that's the only thing that's going to ultimately matter
is, you know, what happens with this trade deal?
Does it get walked back? Are there negotiations?
How do markets recover from here if all of these little scenarios end up playing out or maybe they don't?
Right. So we're going to talk about all of that and then some.
Thank you guys for being here. It's always fun to hang out with everybody. And again, we'll probably have maybe a little bit more of a discussion later on. I know
Louie was planning on coming to hang out. But yeah, thanks for being here, even on the worst
of days, right? Even on the worst of days, weeks or months, markets up, markets down. It's always
fun hanging out with you guys. Just chit-chat,
just chit-chat and talking markets. So all right. So let's get into it a little bit. So for those that have not been following closely, I'll kind of start at the very beginning. All right. I'll
start. I won't go into too much detail because I'd be up here for three or four hours talking about
tariffs, which nobody wants or really needs to hear,
but we can keep it somewhat surface level and I think more or less cover everything.
All right. So Trump, for as long as I can remember, was campaigning or including within
his campaign amongst a bunch of other things. We're going to be implementing tariffs, right?
amongst a bunch of other things, we're going to be implementing tariffs, right? We've been
basically running a trade deficit for a long time, and other countries are taking advantage of us,
and we offer so much to other countries, and they don't reciprocate. He's not entirely wrong,
but of course, it's nuanced. Hang on one second. I think I got a co-host invite here. I just want to get that off my screen.
Okay. So basically, he's been always, the tariffs are not a surprise, right? The fact that there's
tariffs is not a surprise at all, right? Not surprised. But what has been going on is not
exactly what people had voted for, right?
What we thought was, okay, there's going to be some sort of like blanket tariff, you know,
maybe 10% or whatever percentage, a small tariff in some fashion towards our partners.
Maybe our, you know, our allies will get a slightly reduced one, but, you know, there's going to be tariffs across the board, right?
And no one really had a problem with that because the idea of it certainly makes sense.
We've had tariffs before, and actually tariffs sort of acting as an external revenue service or the primary source of government revenue for a while here in the U.S. was pretty common and effective, right? And
then that was replaced with, you know, looser trade policy, tariffs go bye-bye, income tax,
you know, gets, is replacing the tariffs. And, you know, we're kind of worse off in one way,
but better off in another way. We're all paying taxes in the U.S. individually, but at least we have cheaper cost of goods and things for us to consume here in the U.S.
And anyways, it's a whole long equation, but tariffs innately are not a bad thing, right?
If they didn't work, other countries wouldn't be tariffing us here in the U.S. It's really simple.
All these countries are upset about
these tariffs that are being imposed. And it's like, well, then why do you do a tariff? Right?
Like, the premise around them is not flawed. It makes perfect sense. But the nature in which
these current tariffs are being pushed is, to put it very simply and very generally, a little bit more aggressive than
the market had anticipated, right? So I'm sure everybody remembers, I think it was last week,
Trump comes out on Liberation Day. I don't remember what day it was. It's Liberation Day.
There was April 2nd, right? Because I remember he was thinking he's going to do April 1st,
but then he's like, I don't want people to think it's a joke. That's when we should have known is
when Trump was like, I don't want everybody thinking that this is a joke. I'm going to do
it on April 2nd. That should have been our tell right there that the man was going to come out
with something that nobody could believe. But basically he comes out on Liberation Day
and he's got this like poster board. And basically what he did is he wildly exceeded the
expectations of what the market had been pricing in and sort of like the rumors and what economists
were forecasting based on, you know, the rhetoric around them and people from his administration
talking. Trump came out with this poster board that had
what they're calling reciprocal tariffs. Now, they weren't perfectly one-to-one,
but they were certainly a lot more than what people were expecting. It was like reciprocal
minus 50% or something. It wasn't like quite one-to-one, but a lot more aggressive.
Market sells off. We keep getting these headlines ever since then of we're not backing down on the tariffs. We're not negotiating. I think they are negotiating, but, you know, they're puffing their chest out. negotiate with Trump because he's basically imposing these ultra, ultra aggressive tariffs
that are a bit crippling on these other countries, ultra, ultra aggressive.
And they're trying to negotiate with him and say like, hey, let's work together. We'll get rid of
our tariffs. If you get rid of your tariffs, we'll do free trade. He doesn't seem to be budging right
now. And I think the reason for that is we need China to budge.
That if we show any weakness or willing to negotiate before the big domino, before, you know, the real one that we really care about, China, because we do a ton of business and ton of manufacturing in China, I think I'm assuming that they're not wanting to show any signs of weakness, even though I'm not sure that it necessarily would be. But let's think about the tariffs in general, right? Let's
think about what it actually means for the economy. Why are stocks behaving like they are,
which of course is sending crypto lower, which is sending, I literally everything right it's not just a u.s thing it's
every market globally right it's european markets it's asian markets i mean chinese stocks are down
japanese stocks are down i mean literally everything go look up like any major index and
they're being horribly affected by what's going on right now because there's basically a trade war
that is in the very early innings of starting right now where the global economy is going to
come screeching to a halt. Now let's, let's dissect why that is. Now we're going to, again,
we're kind of speed running through this because I don't think it will do anybody any good to get
like overly technical on this and dissect it for three or four hours. Not that I even could do that,
but we're going to kind of go surface level with like, what the heck is even happening?
Why do the tariffs matter so much? So the U.S., the largest consumer of goods, we spend the most
money, to put it simply. We basically determined a while ago that, hey, we have labor laws here in the U.S. that really are not favorable for manufacturing.
And we don't really care about our manufacturing jobs like we used to.
We've really sort of moved into, I'd say, more of like a high-end tech-based, you know, economy, right?
Like we love our cheap iPhones, right?
We love computers.
We love tech.
Like that's the bulk of the consumption that occurs these days.
Okay.
So we determined, hey, we can manufacture iPhones and whatever else, you know, expensive consumption
habits that we have, we can manufacture
all of this overseas. And even with the cost of shipping it back to the U S and selling it in
stores, um, it's still significantly cheaper than if we were to manufacture it here in the U S if
we were to try to manufacture iPhones in the U S it'd be like four or $5,000 for an iPhone.
I don't, I'm kind of making the number up. I don't, I didn't in the US, it'd be like four or $5,000 for an iPhone.
I'm kind of making the number up.
I didn't run the math on it, but it would be significantly higher than what it is manufacturing it in some sweatshop in China and then sending it back here to the US.
It makes a lot more sense, right?
Because then Apple, I'm just picking on Apple, then Apple can keep their cost of goods relatively low and affordable for that product. Keeping that low and affordable for that product basically incentivizes
the consumer to spend. They go, oh, hey, I can actually afford to buy this iPhone. I'm going to
continue to consume. Apple's margins are good because they're manufacturing these products
overseas and they're saving a ton of money. That saving gets passed on to the consumer. Then the consumer buys more
because they can afford it, which again flows through the bottom line of Apple, right? So it's
this kind of circular equation where it's like manufacturing overseas leads to cheaper cost of
goods, which incentivizes consumers spending more money,
which ultimately flows through the bottom line of companies. Then companies show good earnings,
and then their stock price goes up, and everybody that's buying iPhones has exposure to that stock
through index funds. So then they have more money, and then they take money out, and then they go buy
more Apple products. You know what I mean? So it's this giant flywheel of consumption, right?
It's the Ponzi that keeps feeding itself.
Okay.
Now, why these tariffs are so disruptive and why everybody's freaking out is because apparently,
I don't think it's today.
There was a headline.
I think it was another fake headline, which is becoming a major problem that we can't
that we can't trust these mainstream news sources. But there was a headline that
trust these mainstream news sources.
a very egregious tariff was put in place today for China. And I actually think it's supposed
to be tomorrow. I guess it doesn't really matter. Either it's already in place as of noon today,
or it's going to be in place tomorrow. I can't confirm. I saw it both ways. I don't think it
really matters. Okay. Point being is it's either now or it's tomorrow, but China has been basically responding, who again is our
basically largest partner in trade here and very, very important to kind of feeding U.S.
companies, even if we're going to pretend like they're not, they are super, super important.
We do a ton of manufacturing in China.
I mean, think about all the major U.S. companies, publicly traded, that you buy their clothes,
you buy their products, and they all say made in China somewhere on them. Like, that's what I'm
talking about. All these products may be developed here in the U.S. Maybe the architecture of these
products was done here in the U.S., but they were all assembled in China and then shipped back here on a boat or a plane, okay?
So what's going on right now is there's going to be a 104% tariff on China,
any exports from China. Much, much, much, much, much, much higher than expected,
much, much, much, much, much, much higher than expected, much higher than expected.
So now let's go back to that flywheel and kind of rework it with this assumption of 104%
tariff on China. You're buying an iPhone, right? You're going to buy an iPhone that's
developed here in California, in the US, but put together overseas.
The unfortunate part is that now there's a giant expense attached to that production,
that manufacturing overseas. So an iPhone is going to get much more expensive. I don't know
exactly how they're going to work in the pricing of it, right? And I'm just, again, I'm just using Apple because I'm sure most of you are listening to me talk on iPhones right
now, okay? But we're just going to pick on Apple because why not? Basically, once these tariffs go
into place, anything that comes back from China to the. is going to have a very, very heavy tax on it.
That tax is an additional expense or line item on all of these companies that are manufacturing in China.
It's another expense.
Like, you know, they have payroll.
They already have taxes.
They have utilities.
They have, you know, whatever.
It doesn't matter.
Any line item.
Now they just suddenly have one matter. Any line item. Now they just
suddenly have one more giant new line item. One major expense on anything produced in China,
anything manufactured in China. And we've grown so reliant on their partnership in this,
their cheap labor, their factories, right? Their streamlined manufacturing. Like that's their economy is basically servicing us
in the US. A huge part of their economy is basically building the shit that we can't
afford to build here because we have different laws. That's the truth of it.
So now all these publicly traded companies like Apple, suddenly you're going to have this major
increase. And guess who they're going to pass that on to, at least partially? They're going to have to increase the cost of their goods sold.
So an iPhone is going to be 50, 60, 70% more expensive. I don't know the exact number. I'm
making it up. We'll let them figure out that equation. There's rumors that they're going to
be manufacturing now in India, primarily instead of China, to try to offset some of the costs.
Who knows? No one knows at this
point. Literally nobody knows. We're going to have to wait and see what happens. But basically what's
going to happen now, going back to that first flywheel example, but with tariffs, if there's a
major export tax or export import tax on China, then it's going to increase the cost of goods sold
here in the US. So if iPhones are more
expensive, people will buy less of them. When people are buying less of them because they're
more expensive, then it hurts companies' bottom line. When the company's bottom line is hurt,
they show piss poor earnings. When they show piss poor earnings, the stock goes down.
When the stock goes down, everybody in the world has exposure to their stock because it's ginormous. It's a multi-trillion dollar company and everybody owns stocks or has exposure to it indirectly through things like crypto, which move with stocks, right? Then they show poor earnings. Then the stock pulls back. Then everybody suddenly has less money because their portfolios are down.
And then they start laying people off and then less people have jobs.
And then you enter some major recession, right?
Like it's a horrible, horrible, horrible situation, right?
It's one line item.
It's one tax that will within a couple of quarters, if it doesn't get resolved, it will
start a doom spiral.
That's basically what's going on here.
So let's work through this a couple different ways, right?
There's some outs here.
There are some outs here.
It's not all doom and gloom, right?
I think it's perhaps a fair assumption that, hey, it wouldn't look great if Donald Trump,
within his first two quarters in office, literally started the Great Depression.
Right. I think it's fair to say that the man has some degree of an ego that he likes to protect.
He certainly doesn't like to show that he's vulnerable or not doing well.
We also know that he can be a bit stubborn. And the big question really is, like,
what does he care more about? Like,
what does he care more about? Showing that he's got, you know, the biggest, the biggest dick on
the table with China and all these other countries? Or does he care more about like,
oh, the S&P is making new highs again. Like we keep winning, winning, winning, you know,
like, what's his primary objective?
What does he care about the most?
We can only hope that he cares more about, like, turning this ship around than he does showing China who's the toughest guy in the room.
But we don't know for sure.
We're going to find out at some point.
Very soon here.
Sorry, I'm getting messages.
Let me just turn this off real quick.
Blowing me up.
Okay.
So there's three parties at play here.
There's three parties at play here.
We have Trump negotiating on behalf of the U.S.
Trump is imposing these tariffs, and they're crippling the world economy
right now. So we have Trump. Our next party is every other country affected by these tariffs,
all of our trade partners, putting them all into an uncomfortable position.
And either Trump is doing that in hopes that they will negotiate and give him something that he wants,
and he's actually kind of intentionally misrepresented what he's doing with these tariffs,
or he genuinely just wants to rake in money off these tariffs and he doesn't care about what happens to the market.
We don't really know.
So we have Trump as one party.
We have every other country affected and their leaders as the second party.
And then the third party is Jerome Powell and his constituents, the man that decides interest rate policy and monetary policy here in the U.S.
All right. Now, in order for us to be OK here, one of three has to give.
One of three has to give.
We either need the U.S. to concede, and Trump can spin it however he wants and walk away saying we won, but we need some concessions.
We're going to need Trump to walk back these tariffs.
he's going to have to come out and he's going to have to say, you know what?
We've done some thinking.
We had great conversations and we're willing to, you know, modify these tariffs, right?
And walk them back a bit.
If they do that, then the markets are going to pump.
Okay.
The markets were okay with tariffs.
When they initially announced like what they were planning to do,
which was like some blanket, you know, soft tariff on everybody.
It was like 10% or something.
I don't remember exactly.
I'm pretty sure the market was up like one and a half percent that same day.
They didn't care about that.
That's fine.
The market cares about a 104% tariff on China.
That's crippling.
Okay.
So party one, either Trump needs to come out and walk this back
a little bit. Okay. Now these tariffs are supposed to go in place tomorrow. So we're getting into the
final hours here. So we're going to figure this out. Option two, other countries need to bend the
knee and say, Trump, we'll play your game. What do you really want here? Do you want no tariffs?
We'll meet you at 0% tariffs. We can have totally free trade across the board. What do you want to
do? If that scenario happens and every country in the world signs up to do reciprocal 0%
tariff-free trade, open border trade, no tariffs, no anything with the US and everybody
else, markets are going to limit up 5% every single day for like a month.
Because then we go back to that flywheel example.
If there's no tariffs, and there currently have been tariffs on the US, okay?
If there's no tariffs tariffs and we can do free
trade with China and India and all these major partners of ours within our own supply chains
here, then immediately our cost of goods goes down. When our cost of goods goes down, people
consume more. When people consume more, companies make more money. When companies make more money,
their stock prices go up., their stock prices go up.
When their stock prices go up, everybody benefits because everybody owns it either directly or indirectly.
And then people have more money and then they consume more
and products are cheap, right?
That's like, that's the holy grail scenario.
Like that's the, if Max could script it perfectly,
that's how this thing would end.
That's how we all giga make it over the next few years.
If that were to happen, I wouldn't get my hopes up too much. I don't really know. Nobody knows,
right? We're just talking about all the possible scenarios here. That's the absolute best case
scenario. That's the best case scenario. All right, Trump, you said reciprocal. Let's be
reciprocal. We're dropping our tariffs against the US. Okay, great, guys. I'm Donald. I'm going to drop our tariffs. Let's have free trade.
Boom. We rip. We V-recover. It makes the COVID V-recovery look like nothing, okay? It would be
so epic. It would be so fun. But again, just understand this is one of many scenarios we're talking about.
The third and final option is Jerome Powell and his constituents step in because these countries, the U.S. and our partners who we've imposed these tariffs on, nobody budges.
And we're basically at a stalemate.
This is the option that I guess I wouldn't necessarily want to see the most but i wouldn't
be that opposed to it because i think it was a matter of time think about what happened during
covid the world economy shut down world economy shuts down every business in the world is disrupted
immediately like everything's just destroyed.
But then over the coming 18 months, the stock market V recovers to brand new highs.
How is that possible?
Well, the stock market didn't actually appreciate to new highs.
What happened is what we denominate our stock values in, the dollar dollar was so egregiously manipulated and devalued by lowering interest
rates and doubling the M2 money supply over 18 months. It's like, yeah, some earnings were okay.
Like, you know, things were, it wasn't like, it wasn't Armageddon, right? Because they stepped
in to do something. But it's like,
what really happened is like, stocks didn't like they shouldn't have gone up the way that they did.
It's just stocks maintained and they stayed alive. But how we value stocks, the thing that
we value them in was basically cut in half. Okay, so stocks repriced that way. And that was the same thing with Bitcoin. Like
the last cycle that we had for Bitcoin. Yes, there was some adoption. Yes, there was some
innovation, but it was more so a cycle that was, was built around the debasement of fiat, right?
And inflation is getting out of control. They're printing dollars. Well, you can't print more
Bitcoin, right? That was the narrative last cycle. And for good reason, right? Like it makes perfect sense. But just like understand what it
means for the Fed to step in, like the tools at their disposal, the ones that really move markets
are lowering interest rates, either on schedule through FOMC meetings, or emergency cuts of things
get really bad. And then also what they can do to help inject liquidity into the markets,
and we talked about this a couple spaces ago,
is they can stop QT and shift to QE,
which basically through, I guess it's not through a backdoor, right?
But it's like in an indirect way,
basically floods the economy with more liquidity
that incentivizes people to
start buying assets, right, which lifts everything. So that's our third option is that Trump and these
other nations don't come to an agreement. These tariffs don't get walked down. The tariffs go
into effect tomorrow. It's crippling for businesses. Markets keep plummeting. But then Jerome Powell has to step
in because equities are down like 30, 40, 50 percent from their highs like, you know, earlier
this year, a month ago. And he's like, we're having a full blown like like cascade. I mean,
this is like like the world that the world economy is going to come to a screeching halt here,
right? We can't have $50 trillion of wealth erased in a matter of a quarter from the stock market.
I mean, you talk about banks would be imploding, right? There'd be nothing left. You know what I
mean? You just simply, it's not an option to have
a truly free market anymore. The stakes are too high. You know that most banks are leveraged like
nine or 10 X on their actual assets. You know that like banks are, banks are completely under
collateralized, right? So if you get some event like that, like they always step in and they step
in because like literally the system is, it a debt based system that we live in.
It's not an equity based system.
Like credit is our economy.
It's everything.
Nobody owns their house in equity anymore.
Everybody has mortgages.
Everybody lives off credit cards.
Everybody has a line of credit for their business.
You know, it's like
everything is debt. Everything is a giant house of cards that's built on leverage. Right.
And, you know, some, you know, crypto purists or, you know, Bitcoin maxis will be like, yeah,
like let's like, let's let the market freely correct. And like, let's send this broken fiat
system to zero, this debt-based, you know,
money to zero, this debt-based economy to zero and shift to an equity-based system being like
Bitcoin, hyper-Bitcoinization. And I think in theory, like that sounds nice, but it's also like,
I don't know if I want to live in a world where like the dollar loses world reserve currency
status and like everybody's using bitcoin like i think that's
kind of a libertarian pipe dream where like i don't even know if we'd have phones to like spend
bitcoin on anymore if things got that bad you know it's just there's so many implications of
something like that like we'd be living in mad max the movie you know what i mean like people
would be like rioting and killing killing each other and like it would be like how do you value your bitcoin if like there's still fiat currencies
that are just being like you know manipulated some strong some i don't know that's a whole
other discussion right but going back before i get too sidetracked on like option number three
right if things get too bad, you are going to
see the Fed step in and do something. Now, yes, we all want lower interest rates.
You know, it's looser monetary policy. It's easier for business. It's, you know, easier to spend.
It's easier to access margin. And like, that's great. You know, we all love cheap debt, but I think the ideal
situation is that, Hey, we actually have a strong economy right now. It would be great for
unemployment to stay around where it is. You know, it'd be great for inflation to stay around like,
you know, 3%. It'd be great for the unemployment rate to be around 4%.
It'd be great for our economy to remain strong without having to artificially prop it up to
save it once again by lowering interest rates and printing a bunch of money and injecting
liquidity to basically artificially prop up markets. It's been this
same thing over and over and over again. Every single time we correct, that's what we do.
And I get why they do it, right? I mean, genuinely, it would be Armageddon if they It didn't. Our system is a house of cards, but we are not at the point of needing QE and
lowering emergency cuts, lowering of interest rates. We're certainly not even close to that
point if we didn't have this tariff situation. This is kind of a black swan situation. Okay.
It truly is. So it's a self-induced collapse that we're seeing right now. Like it's fully
preventable. There's a very easy overnight solution to it. And obviously it needs to be
done. There's like a dozen people on the planet, specifically one who's, you know, Trump putting all of it in place. Like he can literally just wake up one day and be like, okay, we're going to fix all this. And then things go back to normal.
You know what I mean? Like, it's not something that you can really model. It's not something
you can really forecast. It's something you kind of just have to like sit and watch and wait to
see what happens. It is 100% self-induced. I think the rationale behind tariffs certainly
makes a lot of sense. But at the same time, the manner in which we're going about it is,
the same time, the manner in which we're going about it is, you know, it's very hostile,
right?
And markets are certainly reacting and starting to price in worst case scenario, which is,
look, if one of our three parties, whether it be Trump bends the knee, whether it be
other countries bend their knees and give Trump what he really wants, or the Fed has to step in
and backstop this thing. If none of those three happen, I'm telling you right now,
without any question, we are going to be in a horrible, horrible recession.
Horrible. I'm just letting you know. And it's a fucking horrible situation.
It's really shitty. And I hate talking about that, but it's as clear as day. It's as clear as day.
We're going to be in a horrible, horrible recession. But here's the thing
is I'm not planning on none of the three parties stepping in. I think
that would be really, really silly for that to happen. I think it would be really silly.
I think somebody is going to step in and do something. It might be a little bit later than
we'd like. We'd like them to step in right now and do something. It might end up happening, you know, later this month.
But somebody needs to step in. There's three parties that have to do something,
and we only need one of them to act on it. Trump needs to change his tone.
Other countries need to just bend the knee and give Trump whatever
the hell he wants. Or Powell needs to step in and go, we can't let this house of cards collapse.
But somebody will step in. We just don't know who it's going to be.
But let's talk about a few charts here, guys. Let's talk about a few charts i have two charts today that's it i wanted to just
kind of talk to you guys and then um we'll have a bit of a conversation maybe we'll get some
thoughts from louis or keck um let me get a couple charts up here i didn't even retweet the space. I forgot.
Okay.
Oops.
Oops.
Well, I guess they missed most of it.
I think most people would find it, right?
All right.
Hang on.
Well, I thought I did.
Maybe I forgot to do it.
All right.
Let's talk about first a Bitcoin chart, and then we'll move on and talk about an ETH chart. All right. Let's talk about first a Bitcoin chart, and then we'll move on and talk about an ETH chart. All right. Hang on one moment. Let me get this up here. Третья. All right. Let me get this up in the nest here. Hang on, everybody.
All right, guys. So I got a chart up in the nest here.
So I got a chart up in the nest here.
Now, look, just kind of explained what's going on with these tariffs, at least how I'm viewing it.
But we really are at kind of a must hold level.
There's no way to sugarcoat it.
We simply must hold around this level.
We simply must hold around this level. Okay? Like, we simply must hold around this level.
I'm not going to sugarcoat it.
I'm not going to spin it another way.
The levels are pretty clear to me.
I've been talking to my guys about this as well, where we spent, you know, from March through October of last year, you know, kind of ranging between
like 74 and upper 50s building value to have a bullish breakout. If we come back inside that
previous range, you're probably not going to stop right there. Now you can,
you can, you know, flirt with it a little more. You can go a little lower. That's fine.
Nothing wrong with that. But I'm talking about re-entering that range, right? Re-entering that
range. I don't think there's a scenario in where we like chill at 69, you know, and like hang out at like upper 60s. Like I think
if you lose this region, you're probably going to low 60s. And then you're going to have to fight
your way back up and try to basically re-exit the previous value that we spent eight months building.
And it also just so happens that we have our 365 day or our yearly rolling VWAP right at this level.
Arguably the most important level on the chart.
Every single cycle when we've lost our 365 day rolling VWAP, that's been the end of the cycle.
That's it.
So I don't think there's really a likely scenario in my mind where we can just lose this level and be good.
Now, there can be some rallies and really exciting times.
I mean, here's the thing is you could still trade.
You can still play altcoins.
There's still opportunity, right?
I'm just letting you know that it's not going to be the rising tide that lifts all
ships thing. It's not going to be the, you know, oh, just hold spot and chill kind of thing. Like
you can, I'm kind of of the opinion that you should always have a little crypto exposure,
right? You never know what's going to happen. It's, you know, it's tough to navigate,
but like you're a crypto investor, right?
but like you're a crypto investor, right? It's an emerging asset class for sure.
It's an emerging asset class for sure.
I'm just saying it's not going to be like the easy mode.
You might have some big rallies like in bear markets,
random things will just start rallying.
You know what I mean?
Random altcoins, random trades, you know, things happen.
But like, I don't think we can lose this level.
I'll be honest, I don't think we can lose this level. I'll be honest.
I don't.
And a prime example of that is I was talking to you guys about ETH.
I think two or three spaces ago.
I can't remember.
You know how ETH had that like previous bear market range low or like the range
high was like 1900 to 2K, something like that.
And then we lost it and went back into like the range high was like 1900 to 2k something like that and then we lost it and
went back into like the previous range you know look what's happening to eth right like when you
break out of a range like a multi-month or multi-year reaccumulation like we have here on
bitcoin like we had on eth you know from a thousand to two thousand in the bear market when you spend that amount of
time accumulating and you break out and then you fail to hold the retest and you get acceptance
back into a previous range it's not like a quick easy no big deal thing you get kind of cooked
all right so bitcoin is not cooked Bitcoin is still structurally perfectly intact.
It's holding the levels that it needs to hold.
So I don't want you to interpret this as me being like,
this is it, Bitcoin is going to lose this level
and going way down.
And by the way, even if it did,
it's not gonna be like an immediate, you know, like floor give out kind of thing.
It's going to take a while.
There's going to be big bounces.
It just means like cycle's probably over.
You know, I'll be completely honest.
Like the only way, and I put this in the tweet, we simply must hold this level if not cycle's likely over.
we simply must hold this level if not cycles likely over unless QE and ZERP again, which is
option three that we talked about being, hey, Powell steps in. So it would be like everything
nukes, China retaliates, other countries band together and retaliate against our tariffs,
increasing tariffs that are already in place against the US. We literally have a global trade
war and things escalate, which I don't think it will get to there. I hope not. I really don't think it will
get there, though. They all retaliate. We have a true, genuine global trade war.
Markets keep collapsing. Then Powell steps in and goes, oh, emergency cuts, you know, 150 basis point
cut effective immediately. And we are going to be, you know, buying treasuries and mortgage
backed securities from banks, flooding banks with cash that they can now lend out at much cheaper
rates because they dropped rates and then more people can borrow money. And then when more people
can borrow money, they borrow, you know, they buy assets and then we're good. Right. That's the QE
situation where it's like, I said this today on our YouTube show, Market Check.
It's kind of a silly little example, but did you ever play rock, paper, scissors with a kid when you were younger?
And you're like, all right, there's three options, rock, paper, scissors.
And then he's like, pickle, pickle beats everything.
Ha ha ha.
And you're like, dude, that's not even a rule.
Like, what are you talking about?
That's like QE where when you get like QE and like emergency cuts, that's like your freebie
to just long everything because they're telling you they're going to manipulate the thing back up.
Okay. So in that one instance, if the floor gave out and we saw a literal global trade war,
Powell calls pickle, automatically wins. My levels don't matter. Your levels don't matter.
Markets are going to pump because they're going to basically print more money. They're going to flood the system with
liquidity. They're going to make it cheaper to borrow. Okay. So that's your one out. Option
three is like everything's fucked, but you're fine because they're going to manipulate it.
That's what it is. Okay. That's what it is. Now,
okay that's what it is now
I hope that we're fine here and I I think that we can be right like it's never really
served me well or anybody to like panic at support you know sometimes you can get away
with breakdown shorting and I understand that this is a very dire situation and things look super ugly
and you know there's all this negativity out there but I really don't think it makes sense to like
start panicking like what are you gonna do like you have zero control over the situation
your altcoins are already down bad bitcoin's down down bad. If you hold stocks, your stocks are down way worse than Bitcoin here.
You know?
Like, probably best to just wait and see.
There's so much headline risk both directions.
Today, we had bad headlines.
Oh, 104% tariff being imposed on the U.S. from China today.
They're retaliating.
Okay, bad headline.
We go lower.
Yesterday, we had some decent headlines.
Price floats higher.
It's like you're probably best served
just waiting 24 hours
to see if these tariffs actually take hold.
And then you're probably best
just like making an informed decision after that.
Never good to panic at support.
Never good to get overly bullish at resistance, although sometimes it's fun.
You got to pump it up.
It's always a great time.
But you understand what I mean.
It's a very, very new sensitive phase of the cycle right now.
And we've seen a pretty poor escalation today with China.
So it's like, do you want to sell into high timeframe support on the day that the news is escalating against us?
Or do you want to wait and see what happens?
I don't know.
The truth is nobody knows.
It's an awkward spot.
It's really awkward.
But we're at support.
That if you take the news out of it,
if everything was fine
and there was no tariff stuff going on
and Bitcoin was down here,
I'd feel a lot more confident that we were going to hold.
I'd be like, yeah, we're going to hold this yearly VWAP. Like, let's run this thing back.
Yearly VWAP is concrete. So sometimes it helps to just pretend like the news doesn't exist and
just look at the levels. I think the levels look fine. Okay, now I have some hopium for you guys.
Who wants to see some hopium? Do we need some hopium on a day like today?
I feel like we do.
I feel like we need a little bit of hopium.
There's nothing wrong with hopium, right?
Now, let me get this out there, okay?
hang on. Give me one second guys, I'm posting it right now. Thank you. All right, almost done.
Hang on.
Hang on.
Sorry for the wait.
Sorry for the wait.
All right.
I got another fractal.
I didn't make this one, but my in-house chef personally made this for me.
We were talking about this today on our YouTube show.
this today on our YouTube show. Here's your hopium for the day, guys.
Here's your hopium for the day, guys.
Now, this is an ETH fractal to Amazon during the great financial crisis, the housing crisis,
the, you know, the movie, The Big Short. That was this time period, okay? This was 2007 to 2009.
Now, at the time, Amazon was not the juggernaut that you know today,
right? Not even close. People were not buying and consuming on the internet like they are today.
Amazon obviously started out, you know, in the late 90s, 2000s as like an online book,
you know, seller. Who wants to buy books online when you can just walk down to the store and buy it?
Well, it turns out everybody wanted to buy books online and they also wanted to buy everything else.
Okay. Now, there's been a lot of comparisons over the years to crypto as a technology
and the adoption, the network adoption of crypto as it relates to tech companies.
And you can actually track crypto adoption and overlay it with that of the internet.
And it's strikingly similar.
And crypto is actually growing quicker than the internet was.
But in terms of like new users, new wallets, I mean, think about like how we value a lot of these tech companies, right?
How many users do they have?
How many accounts do they have?
What's the average revenue per customer, right?
something like Amazon being a new technology that's still highly speculative, but has a use
case of some sort in its early phase is not all that crazy of a comparison.
Now, looking at this fractal, they're very similar, right? They both had their like initial
kind of parabolic run-ups. Then they had their despair,
bear market lows, little rallies in between. And now they've both gone through these pumps,
where they didn't quite get to all-time high, but they got kind of close.
And then during the great financial crisis, which by the way, we had a volatility blowout that was
comparable to what we're seeing right now. The know, the VIX is, the VIX spiked to like 60 the other day.
I think during the GFC, it was maybe like 80 or something like that, but very similar, right?
Amazon pulled back 65.7% from its swing high to its capitulatory low.
to its capitulatory low. ETH has pulled back 65.67% from its swing high to its capitulatory low so far.
Same exact percentage. Same exact percentage as Amazon pulled back here, and it swept the same low,
the same pivot low. Now, let me put it this way. We still need one of three parties to give.
We need Trump to walk it back. We need Powell to step in, or we need other countries to bend the knee. Something must give.
And I'm going to tell you right now that there's a couple ways that this resolves here.
Either we get a fractal like this and we run this thing back turbo.
And we recover very, very quickly.
And it's off the back of the narrative de-escalating.
Or, ETH is genuinely dead.
Like, I think if ETH loses this region,
I don't honestly think it's going to survive.
It might be blockbuster to Netflix, you know,
where all these new L1s are actually the better tech
and nobody cared that ETH was the first mover
and it just is fucking dead tech.
And I know that there's an upgrade happening in like May,
but I'm just letting you know, like,
there's really not a,
because like if you lose this level and you go down, if you lose this region, like, let's just say like 1300-ish, we'll give it a little wiggle room.
If you lose this region, then you're probably going to go down to the bear market lows of like 1000-ish.
And then you're going to bounce back up to 1500 and you're
going to reject from that level most likely. Because I look at things like BNB and soul.
And it's like, this is a pretty isolated ETH issue for this cycle. That's the truth.
ETH issue for this cycle. That's the truth. Certainly to my surprise, I knew ETH was slower
and more expensive, but I didn't think the market really hated it that much.
My mistake. There's still the most stable coins on ETH, the most liquidity on ETH by a lot.
Market doesn't seem to care too much about that, apparently. So this is either one of those point of maximum opportunities, or ETH is like actually fucking dead.
I'm not kidding.
Like, I don't think you're going to go down to the bear market low and be okay.
You could rally off of it.
You could rally 100% off of, you know, the bear market low.
And I just don't think you're really,
it's going to be one of those charts that just like, it's the euthanasia roller coaster,
where it's not going to get above the highs that it's set in 2024. It'll bounce back up. Maybe
we'll see 3k again at some point, but it's just going to keep printing high timeframe, lower highs
for every bounce that crypto gives.
So like this is your point of maximum opportunity where either like you bet on ETH surviving and thriving and it literally recovers hard off this low like we've seen tech companies do
during points of maximum fear, which of course is if it's good tech, maximum opportunity,
or you're fried.
It's that simple. You've lost every single level.
Every support has turned, you know, tried to hold and then was immediately lost and flipped into resistance. You're at your point of got to hold it. You can't see bear market lows and be
okay. You could bounce off of it. Again,
like I said, you can get some big bounces. And by the way, as we talk about ETH, of course,
the big question is like, what does that mean for ETH beta? Well, I mean, if ETH goes down more and
then puts in a hundred percent move, you know, off of its bear market floor or something like that,
you're going to see beta rip. Like there's still plenty of trades to be had. East is not literally going to zero. Certainly not. But it might just slowly fizzle out with time
if the market has literally just determined this is tech we are simply not interested in at all.
There's better options now. This is Netscape or whatever, this is Blockbuster and now we have Netflix,
then it's not going to go on to do what we hoped it would do.
But if ETH is good tech and it's going to be around for the long haul and it's going to be
one of our future crypto mag sevens, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla, whatever, but for crypto, then this is your region.
This is your hold it or delete it off your watch list region. Seriously.
That's the truth. One can only attempt to defend it for so long before you must say,
the market is telling me it's bad tech.
But here's the thing is like, I don't think it's bad tech. Like maybe I'm old school,
but I actually like, I actually like using ETH. Maybe I'm, you know, maybe I'm, I'm a rare breed
these days, but I also like Blockbuster, right? I liked the human aspect of walking into the store,
picking out my movie, the smell of it. You buy your bunch of crunch at the counter and you,
you know, you touch and feel all the movies. I enjoyed that back in the day.
I'm not that old, but like, I remember it and like, I loved it. It was a fun thing to do.
So maybe I'm just nostalgic and reminiscing on the good old days of ETH, right?
Who knows?
I guess time will tell.
It's not up to me.
But as much as I might like Blockbuster, eventually I must say, okay, if the market has determined
that this is a dinosaur, it doesn't matter.
matter. We prefer Netflix. We're going to bid Netflix. So I'm letting you know that if ETH
We prefer Netflix.
We're going to bid Netflix.
is going to be one of our Apple, Amazon, NVIDIA, Microsoft, Google, Teslas of crypto,
one of our top 10 forever, this is it, ladies and gentlemen.
This is your 2007 to 2009 great financial crisis for ETH.
But here's your hopium for the day.
You are at your level, ladies and gentlemen.
So we're either going to look back on this chart and this space and go,
yep, that was the death of Ethereum.
Turns out it's blockbuster.
Or we're going to look back and go, man, remember how scary
that was. I can't believe that we're trading at $12,000 per ETH a year later. It's going to be
one of the two. But I'd say for now, hold on to some hope because Bitcoin's at support. It's trying to bounce. ETH is still very much so usable. I love using ETH personally.
Maybe it's just me though. But I'm holding out hope. I am guys. I'm holding out hope.
But there's your Hopium for the day. there's your point of maximum fear maximum opportunity
but the big the big question is is eth blockbuster or is eth amazon on in 2008 we're gonna find out
with that said,
we got some other people up here hanging out with us.
I'm going to pass the mic.
Who wants it here?
Anybody can have it.
Just make a noise or put your hand up or something.
Then anybody's welcome.
Yup.
Louie Meatstick, what's going on, bro?
What's going on, Max? Thanks for on bro? What's going on Max?
Thanks for having me.
What's going on everybody else on the panel?
Everyone listening?
Glad to see everybody here.
We got 330 people in here.
That's a decently sized space.
For the overall sentiment of the markets right now.
It's always a positive, man, that that's always a positive, even more than last week.
So that's a great sign guys.
You know, we, we have a strength in numbers for sure.
And yeah, a true core community here.
Right?
And we're not just here to be community members, obviously. We're here to make money.
Or else, you know, why would you be here?
You know?
But Max had put everything beautifully, guys.
You know, ETH is at that level.
ETH is really at that level.
You know, I told the Discord yesterday,
and we've been optimistic on ETH for a long time,
even when most haven't been.
But there comes a point where, you know, there's a difference between being optimistic and not looking at what's in front of you.
So we're at that level, right?
We're at that extreme level of being oversold, being sentiment absolutely horrible, people giving up.
And a lot of it has to do as well with the global macro
environment that we're seeing. And I definitely don't claim to be some global macro expert,
right? That's not my forte. I'm more of a, you know, I'm a charter, I'm an analyst,
you know, I trade price action and I trade the charts.
the trade price action, and I trade the charts.
So ETH does need to be saved here.
There's no doubt about it.
And I like Max's comparison.
Like, is ETH going to be the real tech, right?
Is ETH going to be, you know, I like his comparison.
I used his comparison on stream today.
Is ETH going to be
the Amazon or the Google of the internet boom? Or is it going to be like the Netscape, right? Like
only a select few will make it to the future of the crypto asset class.
And some will make it, some won't.
Some will make it, some won't, some won't, right?
Some won't, right?
I have several reasons to believe that ETH is not in fact dead.
But again, as an analyst, as a chartist,
it's getting very close to the point where it's hard to defend at this point, right?
it's hard to defend at this point, right?
But again, we're in this macro environment
where it's very headline driven, right?
Volatility swings in both directions.
The outlook on the economic future right now is uncertain, right?
It's uncertain at this point.
But I believe we are one or two headlines away
from that all changing. And that's kind of what they're setting it up as.
One thing to note is that, and I've talked about this in the Discord over the last couple of days,
is we've seen the effect of the tariff news headlines on the overall market.
It seems like every time over the last couple of weeks,
you get a negative headline on tariffs,
markets overreact and have large negative correlations to the downside to that
news.
But one thing I've been talking about over the last
week or so is we should start to be aware of when these big negative headlines happen,
you know, eventually these headlines are going to start to have less and less effect on the market locally, right? Maybe at least in the short term.
Eventually, you get enough bad news to the point where the worst of the worst case scenario has
been priced in and the market's just waiting for a reason to bounce back, right? Because markets
are extremely reflexive, they're extremely forward-looking
um so i think what we've seen especially in equities right over the last month is an extreme
extremely volatile extremely reflexive pricing in of uncertainty uh and trade war. And we've seen on the way down how each and every news article or tweet from Trump or whatever it may be, retaliatory tariffs, whatever it is, having that negative effect.
But what we should be looking for is when these news events and these news items start to have less and less effect.
Because when we start seeing that, I really do think that we'll be close to some sort of bottom or at least a local bottom and seeing a reversal.
And a great, great example of this, which is, in my opinion, I think we're starting to see it, was we got a massively bearish headline today, guys.
On, what is it, the US placing 104% tariff on China.
Like, that's a big, big headline.
Bigger than most headlines, in my opinion,
we've seen over the last week.
And to be honest,
equities haven't really moved much on it.
We were up like a percent or two before that happened.
Now we're barely in the red.
We had less than a 1% reaction to this news.
Crypto dropped a little bit, but it already looks to be bouncing back. And I think this is
extremely important to look out for because eventually the bad news keeps coming, but price
does not react to the downside. Eventually the market runs out of excuses to drop.
If price is in the worst case scenario,
negative news headlines have less effect on price.
Once you start to see that,
you're in the area of where you should see a market reversal, right?
And you have to remember as well,
bad news usually marks bottoms.
It's not good news.
Maybe good news helps you come out of said bottom,
but bad news is what marks bottoms for markets.
Example, I know not many of you are here,
but 2022, in the depths of the bear market,
we already had a horrible, horrible bear market, right?
Bitcoin was about 65%, 70% off its highs.
All coins were 80% to 90% off their highs from 2021 after a year long of downside.
And then, you know, markets started curling up, looking positive,
And then, you know, markets started curling up, looking positive, looking like we had a chance.
looking like we had a chance.
And then, boom, we had the massive, massive FTX blow up collapse.
Markets dropped, right?
Another 10% or so.
And when we got that bad news and we got the initial drop, it was general consensus that we were going much lower.
But in fact, the tick low on the day of that news marked the low for markets.
And from that point on, Bitcoin, and mostly Bitcoin, but Bitcoin, altcoins, ETH,
all rallied off the lows from there. And that was the start of the climb off the lows. So eventually, bad news will mark the low. And more and more bad
news that comes out following that has less and less impact on price. And eventually, the worst
case scenario is priced in and the only other way to go is up.
So that's what I would be watching for you guys specifically. I know there's a lot of negative headlines out there. There's a lot of talking heads. Everyone's scared. No one's certain.
But I think we're getting close to the point where we just got a big negative headline news
event with a 100% tariff on China, which is absolutely absurd. And the markets dropped a
little bit and are leveling out, or at least tempted to level out. I mean, I could be a
little early on that, right? We could see some follow through, right? But it's just like an
example from what I'm seeing today and what I'll be looking for, right? Because eventually the
worst of the worst is priced in, right? the worst of the worst is priced in, right?
The worst of the worst is priced in.
That's because markets are forward-looking.
So once again, I'll repeat,
I am still very optimistic for crypto and markets as a whole.
ETH needs to do something, though.
It really comes down to ETH doing something and first and foremost,
Bitcoin rallying out of this consolidation that we've been in for the last three months.
Bitcoin's holding up very well given everything we've seen, right? Everything we've seen in the
global macro, Bitcoin, especially the last couple of weeks, Bitcoin's holding, you know, local structure and still in a normal, you know, 30 to 35 percent pullback off the highs, which we see historically in Bitcoin bull runs.
So, again, you know, when you start getting the worst of the worst news, that's not usually the time to sell or get out.
If anything, it's the exact opposite. You should be looking for opportunities, right?
You know, especially if there's, you know, younger men and women here, you know, 35 or under.
You should be more focused on looking for opportunities
than looking at everything that's going wrong
and everything that could possibly go wrong.
Historically, these drops,
especially what we're seeing in equities,
are historically great opportunities
in portfolio builders.
So whether it's whatever,
it doesn't have to be Andy,
it doesn't have to be Wolf,
but just in general, you should be really looking for opportunity in times like these.
And that's exactly what I'm doing.
With whatever capital I have left, I'm looking for opportunities to get positioned
and to take advantage of discounted prices.
So that's all I have today.
You know, Look for opportunity.
Don't let the doom and gloom get to you.
I know it's super noisy out there.
And really look to see how these negative news events start to have less and less impact on price.
You start seeing that, it's really time to start paying attention.
Because then you're one positive headline away.
Or you don't even need a positive headline. You could just slowly grind and the markets start
climbing that wall of worry back to the upside. So just keep those things in mind. That's all
the kind of advice I have here right now. I think crypto is going to be a-okay. One more thing,
One more thing, tariffs have zero direct impact on crypto directly.
Zero.
Absolutely zero.
They have impact on global trade.
They have impact on companies.
They have impact on countries.
Crypto itself, although investor sentiment, all that,
obviously there's indirect effects to crypto.
But directly speaking, everything that's going on right now has zero effect on crypto directly.
So just keep that in mind.
Just keep that in mind.
And I know it's a long shot and I know it might sound crazy.
But I think moving forward and moving out of this, if we still start to see uncertainty, you know, we could see a scenario where Bitcoin and crypto as an asset class do become an uncorrelated asset class for people to invest in that's not directly affected to global trade war, to tariffs, to countries, to GDP, to companies.
So just keep that in mind. Although we're correlated as far as markets are, equities are up,
crypto's up, vice versa, we are setting ourselves up to be one of the only asset classes in the
world that might actually have a slight chance of not being directly affected by all of this.
So keep that in mind, look for opportunities, hang tight,
doing nothing is also a strategy and a position.
I do that a lot of the time as well, myself. All right.
That's all I have to say. I hope everyone's doing well, stay safe out there,
remain level-headed.
And everything's going to be all right, in my opinion. If not, we lick our wounds and we look for opportunity elsewhere down the line. But for now, I'm still fully positioned.
And I'm looking for mean reversion bounces at a minimum from here for stock market,
crypto, everything across the board. So that's all I got. Thanks for having me up, Max. you know mean reversion balances at a minimum from here for stock market crypto everything
across the board so that's all i got thanks for having me up max uh and i hope everyone has a
great rest of the day thanks louie appreciate your thoughts as always bro all right tech
what's going on man how you feeling what are you seeing out there talk to us man i'm actually feeling good i don't know man i like
at the end of the day i feel like um with every recession we've ever seen with every
massive market move down we've ever seen uh the markets recover in time right all it takes is a
bit of patience a bit of good vibes and uh and
we'll get there and i'm not i'm not even the slightest bit worried i i realize that crypto
is the only chance that the general public is gonna have to you know level the playing field
with the big boys and and i'm gonna hang on to that and i think that this paradigm shift is gonna be very rocky
but i feel like it's inevitable um and my whole life i've found success by by just being water
and moving with the flows and right now the water's a little bit rough but we're still water
and we're still here so at the end of the day you know this is all kind of noise and yeah
At the end of the day, you know, this is all kind of noise.
And yeah, the short term, it could be painful or it could bounce back.
But at the end of the day, it's out of our control, right?
And what's in our control is to stay positive, make sure people are staying healthy, and
support each other through these hard times.
Because, you know, maybe not everybody can take things as easy as the next person beside
you.
So just know that you're, you know, you're not alone.
There's what, 300 people in the space?
Like, think about that for a second.
Like, we've got 300 people pulling up into a space when, you know, when Trump just hits China with 100% tariff.
And all the markets have absolutely been obliterated.
People don't know if Ethereum is going to be here tomorrow.
And there's still 300 people pulling up.
So you've got to understand that there's actually a lot of value in that.
There's value in people.
There's value in time.
We're here.
We're people.
We're putting in our time.
And we're not going anywhere.
And I think that when everybody starts really questioning things, I find I've noticed that that's when things kind of turn, turn the other direction and maybe it'll take some time.
But at the end of the day, I'm not fucking going anywhere.
Like I was here with when ETH was at $700.
You know what I mean?
Like it doesn't this shit.
It just it comes and goes.
And and it's all relative to time. $1,700. You know what I mean? Like it doesn't, this shit, it just, it comes and goes and,
and it's all relative to time. And I think that if we are patient and we put in our time, we'll get rewarded. And, you know, of course there's going to be opportunities. Of course,
there's going to be some despair, but at the end of the day, man, we're still rolling. We're in,
and surprisingly through the group chats and whatnot, um, chats and whatnot, I've seen people staying
positive. I've like, you know, just in the wolf chat alone, there's probably only been three or
four people that have left in the past month and a half. And there's been, you know, probably about
six to 10 people added to it. So like, I'm seeing people come in, buy the dips, engage with the community. And it's very cool to see.
And I love seeing people get these special entries into these projects.
And I remain bullish on Pepe, Andy, Landwolf,
because I know that the people are here and we're not going anywhere.
And what the market is doing is completely out of our control.
And, you know, since we were talking,
I guess the White House put out a thing that's saying that,
you know, at 12 tonight,
the tariffs are going to go live on China.
And then Canada barked back with 25% tariff on auto industry.
So, I mean, it's going to be volatile.
But at the end of the day, I think that it resolves.
And I think that when it does,
there's so many catalysts that can push us higher with all this negative news and all this negative sentiment that has just been piled onto us for the last three months.
Like, it'll just take a few things to really start sending things in the other direction. And then, you know, you get the traders that get their confirmations and they start wanting to put liquidity back into the market. So, you know, you might bleed down for
six months or something, and it can all be reset in two months of green. So I've seen that many
times before, and I think we'll see it again. But obviously, it's not easy. And everybody needs to
take care of themselves. You should never put in money that you can't afford to lose, of course.
But at the end of the day, I'll tell you what.
We're not going anywhere.
And you have support here, unlike a lot of other places and a lot of other projects.
So I'll keep it nice and short today.
But I appreciate you guys pulling up.
Because I know it's not easy being in
Max or Louie's position when you're,
you guys are talking about the markets every day and the markets are just
shit.
You know what I mean?
Like it's,
I don't have to do that.
So I'm a little bit blessed,
but I know like for you guys,
it's,
it's gotta be difficult,
man.
Cause it's like,
another day.
And yeah,
Ethereum's down.
So at the end of the day, we got to show our appreciation to these guys because they're the real heroes here.
Keeping the sentiment going and giving people insight.
You know, you can hear it's actually kind of it's kind of nice to hear Max on edge because it's like he he's a very positive person
and i know it's hard for him but like it when i hear him like in this situation where he's like
okay this is the level i feel like we're that much closer to the like to the pico bottom so
um yeah eath might be make or break um but we'll see. I mean, at the end of the day, World Liberty Fi yesterday just announced
that they're going to launch USD1, which is a stable coin on Ethereum,
and they're going to airdrop it to all World Liberty Fi holders.
So we're seeing utility come out of the president's project
where he's going to be dropping stable coins to people on Ethereum.
You know, you you got Sony on Ethereum
building a layer too. You got base, like you have a lot of liquidity. Like there, there's just so
much about Ethereum that I just don't think it's going anywhere. And it's, of course, it's, it's
disheartening when the, when the price isn't reflecting, but we'll see what happens. I mean,
the Pectra update is going live may 7th
which is the exact same day as the fomc meeting which is kind of interesting that those lined up
um so maybe that's a catalyst where we see a bit of a bounce but um i don't know if anything's
going to happen when when trump's going back and forth can you can you actually sorry to interrupt
can you can you tell us a little more about that Pectra update?
That's not really my wheelhouse. I literally read your tweet out. I saw on MarketCheck today because I thought your tweet on it was very interesting.
And you seem to know a lot more about that.
Can you tell us a little more about that Pectra update and what it means and what are the future know the future catalysts and you case use cases for
this update yeah well i've i've read a little bit about it i'm not like a super techie guy by any
means i'm just a memer but um from what i gather um you're gonna be able to like right now um to
validate the eth network you you have like a 32 eth um validator um that's gonna get increased to
i think it was like over 2000 right so you're you're going to be able to stake a lot more ETH. And, you know, people are saying that it's going to create a lot
of stability in the network. And then there's a bunch of other updates going live that are going
to like lower gas fees and make the network more efficient and also more safe. So I think that it's a push for like, you know,
you're seeing the ETFs where you're going to have this ETH staking.
So now you're seeing the actual ETH foundation make some moves
where I think a lot of these like larger money can come in and stake on ETH,
which is very bullish because at the end of the day,
it's going to increase, like I said, the efficiency in the
network and also the stability and safety. More validators, the better. So it'll be interesting
to see how it plays out. And it's cool to see, you know, finally something happening with ETH.
And we should see some lower gas fees and whatnot. But I mean, ETH was always built to be built on top of um and i think that that's
what a lot of people fail to realize it's like the power is in like the l2s and and having that very
secure stable base layer um so i think it's going to just take time right i think that uh at the end
of the day it it is what it is and and this I don't think any of us expected the markets to do what it's doing right now.
But like I said, it's out of our control.
And it's like, do you believe in Bitcoin?
Do you believe in self-custody?
Do you believe in all these things?
And if the answer is yes, then what are we even talking about you know what i
mean um it's not one bitcoin is one bitcoin you guys like one eth is one eth right um i understand
that it's hard to look at your portfolio and see it down like we're all down right um but at the
end of the day it's it's if you believe in the tech if you believe in the tech, if you believe in this movement, like do you believe in crypto?
And that's what it boils down to.
And all these things are just,
it's just like the beta train, right?
We need the markets to perform so Bitcoin can perform.
We need Bitcoin to perform so ETH
and our projects can perform.
And at the end of the day,
you're seeing people are still pulling up.
We're still showing up.
We're still working.
We're not going anywhere because, you know seeing people are still pulling up. We're still showing up. We're still working. Uh, we're not going anywhere because you know, we believe in this thing and, and, uh,
that I'm riding with all you guys. So let's, let's just, uh, try to keep a smile on if you can. I know some days are hard, but if man, if you're feeling stressed out, like the best thing you can
do is just touch some grass. Like there, there's no need really, if you're locked in and
you're, you're comfortable and you're willing to wait, like there's no need to check the charts
every day. Like if it's okay to unplug a little bit and, uh, spend time with your family or
whatever you need to do, um, to keep that mental health in check, because I think that that's very
important. So I just want to throw that out there. And yeah, I just want to say that I appreciate all you guys still showing up every day.
Yeah, thanks, Keck.
It's just funny when the first thing that popped into my mind when you said,
guys, I've been here since ETH was $700.
My first thought was, well, you're about to be here again when ETH is $700.
Yeah, but that's the thing, though, is like nothing will change for me.
Like, you know what I mean?
I'll buy more.
I just I'll I'll start I'll start selling other stuff.
You know, my I have hard assets like real estate and stuff.
And if if I if we go to those levels, I'm shoving.
I don't care.
Right.
Because it's like at the end of the day, I believe in this.
And I think that this is the opportunity that we need like i've traded in the
stock market and got absolutely wrecked and like i've seen the synthetic shares get created i've
seen like the dark pools and how these guys move it's like there there has to be a different way
and i believe that crypto now that we're getting regulation i feel like it's it
right like now we're past the point of acceptance now that was the big hurdle for crypto was like
the point of acceptance right and i know that bitcoin would survive without it it doesn't need
it by any by any means it's kind of why it was created. But now that we're seeing like institutions and stuff
and countries like buying, man, like it's just crazy to me that we're talking about ETH at $700,
right? Like you've had acceptance. We're seeing regulation. We're seeing ETFs staking. Like,
man, at some point, the thing's going to turn around, right?
And the market always does.
Like, look at 2008, right?
Everybody thought the world was over.
And look at where it's at now, right?
So fast forward four years, fast forward 10 years, fast forward 20 years,
we're going to look back at this and be like,
holy fuck, that was a generational opportunity.
And, like, you're're not gonna find those kind of
gains in in in the markets like like you will here in crypto um it just moves at like a
hyperbolic rate so i totally agree i totally agree with you well bitcoin's at support
bitcoin should hold at support.
And something that Louis said that I always remind myself of, and I put out a tweet the
other day about this, where typically you'll see bottoms begin to form when you get bad
news and it stops having such an immediate piss-poor effect on price.
I mean, it's the old buy the rumor, sell the news.
Okay, so if buy the rumor, sell the news is true,
then what's the opposite of that, right?
What's the opposite of that?
It goes both ways, right?
Buy the rumor, sell the news.
Okay, so then what do you do next?
I think it goes both ways, right?
I don't think you can just cherry pick one.
I don't think you can just cherry pick one.
But a lot of good points.
Keck, thanks for your thoughts.
Stay optimistic, guys.
We'll see what kind of news we get over the next 48 hours, right?
I'm hoping that there's some de-escalation in this tariff situation or debacle.
And if we get a de-escalation, I mean, the market's starting to price in, worst-case scenario.
And that's becoming pretty apparent to me.
So let's see if we can get a de-escalation.
Let's see who wants to bend the So let's see if we can get a de-escalation. Let's see who
wants to bend the knee. We have three outcomes, right? We have Trump can bend the knee a little
bit and still claim victory. Other countries can bend the knee a little bit. They can still
claim victory somehow, some way. Or I guess last case, Powell steps in and we run back the old Ponzi playbook. Print more money,
lower interest rates. But guys, that's where we're going to call it today. Thanks so much
for being here. Follow everybody on the panel and we will see you again next Tuesday for another
Boys Club Megaspace where we convene as two communities. Rock solid. We talk about markets
and hopefully we get some updates,
right? A lot can happen. This market's moving a million miles an hour right now.
So I have no doubt that we're going to get some updates in the very near future. But guys,
thanks again for being here. See you in one week. Take care. Thank you.
