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CRYPTO Cracks Under Pressure! BIG TARGETS On Radar!
Recorded: April 7, 2025 Duration: 0:59:34Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent live stream, the discussion centered around the current state of the crypto market, highlighting significant trends such as the decline in the Chinese stock market, the implications of circuit breakers, and the potential for growth in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and ADA. The analysis emphasized the importance of historical data in predicting future market behavior, suggesting that despite current volatility, opportunities for growth remain.
Full Transcription
Shout out to Wifey.
She has convinced me to do the live stream.
She convinced me to do it.
Hold on one second.
My trackpad's about to run out of battery.
Welcome to the stream, everybody, if you're out there.
If you're a replay viewer, please feel free to hit the thumbnail or the timestamps below.
I have a ton of tabs up right now.
I'm just going to start with this because
Plutus staking just messaged me right before I was about to go live. This is my thought exactly.
Looks like Besson and Trump did it. Multiple countries have halted trading. And this is what
we're going to talk about in the video. From everything collapsing, rates will come down soon and QE will start. That is a very applicable comment.
I mean, tariffs are important in their own world and with what Trump is doing, but remember his
other goal to basically do exactly what Buddha Staking is saying here. Bring the rates down.
That has been what we've been talking about for months now. In this video, I want to talk about
a bunch of different things, but I want to let you know at the beginning, we'll look at Bitcoin,
going to look at Bitcoin targets to the downside. I want to look at ADA targets to the downside.
I want to look at Ethereum on the RSI. I think a very useful and a very important
chart to look at. So if you're out there, please hit the subscribe and like on the way in. I
appreciate you if you're out there through this mess that we're going to get through, by the way.
We're going to get through it. Just I'm telling you. Hold on one second. I have to plug this in because right when I go live,
my trackpad battery is failing me. We're back. We're back. All right. So a lot of things to talk about. Targets, but let's kind
of start with just a couple of thoughts, a couple of kind of overviews that we get some people in
here, hopefully. I mean, sentiment not 100% great right now. So let's see how many we get into this
live stream. But Chinese stock market falls 10% at open. This is just breaking right now. Everything is breaking.
And I mean, just literally, everything is breaking. I want to put this out there. Anthony
Pompliano, the stock market is transferring wealth from the inpatient to the patient over
the last few days. I was even hanging out in the discord today and I get it. You can ask my wife.
and I get it. You can ask my wife. I'm looking at the charts and I'm just like, I'm not happy
about it either. But I think a lot of people are way too zoomed in. And this is something I want
to talk about in this video before we get to those targets. I want to look at the Bitcoin ADA
targets. I want to look at charts, but I just really want to give a zoomed out play of what is going on.
Look at the fear at four.
We are at four.
Okay.
Let's talk about why I'm saying zooming out is so important.
At least for me.
This is what I'm seeing.
And I've been here before, everybody.
I want to let you know right now.
I posted this earlier in X, but back in like 2008, 2009, when the market was crashing, and if you just go back here,
and it's crazy to think this, it doesn't feel like that long ago. Where are we at? 2008, 2009.
I was a new investor to the game. And I basically, I don't remember when. I just know I was panicking and
I was selling into it all, everybody. I was selling into it. And look what happened.
That was it for me. That was the big moment for me that turned me into a macro investor,
but also one that learns to put emotion aside. That was it. This is Danny G
failing big time. That's what that was for me. So I just want to say that when we're getting
into these environments, I'm not just optimistic because I'm just some, you know, optimistic no matter what is going on. Although I am, I will say that
I have, I have pure joy and I have, I rely on nothing that we see here on these charts. I rely
on God and my hope in Jesus Christ. That is where my true optimism comes from unfailing.
This could all go to zero. This is why I have hope. But when we're looking at charts and we're looking at just data,
that's why, especially in these moments, I can just cover these charts and do it with a smile
on my face. And so I want to present that data to you because it's really not my opinion. It's not me having a smile
on my face. It's just data. So let's kind of talk about this a little bit, okay? So tomorrow could
be the third straight day where the S&P 500 falls more than 4%. This only happened during the Great Depression. So let's see what happens tomorrow. But if you look
at futures here, we're in a red candle. Who knows what it's going to do? But let's see how this
plays out because we're looking at data that has only happened during the Great Depression.
I think a lot of this is irrational. I think the correction is needed.
I think it makes sense. I think a lot of it's irrational. And wait until we look at the crypto charts. It's just crazy. I want to explore a comment that I just got and is a great comment,
by the way, because it's very easy to think this. I just said we've been here before,
hang in there. And this comment says, I don't think we have Dan, we've been through this in a bear market, but not a bull market, but you're
going to be surprised at what I'm going to show you on the Bitcoin and ADA charts. I really think
you're going to be surprised. So let let's go back to this for a moment. This is S and P 500
data that hasn't happened since the great depression. Here's what's happening as well.
And all these things are going to tie together on a zoomed out chart in just a moment. But
brokerage firms are sending out circuit breaker warnings as US stock market futures extend three
day losses to over 15%. Japan suspends stock futures trading. This is all just happening tonight. You see futures on S&P 500.
Okay. Now we're getting, we're going to get here. Okay. The VIX ended the week above 45,
which is among the highest volatility readings in history. The good news, when the fear gauge has been this high in the past,
stocks have substantially outperformed over the next one to five years.
I know many of you are like, come on, dude. You're talking years now.
But we're in this position. We are where we are. Almost everybody in crypto thrown off by the lack
of altcoin bull market that we've gotten. Jerome Powell dragging his feet. Tariff stuff happening.
We're in a monumental record-breaking crash right now. It is what it is on the short term.
But like a band-aid being ripped off, we have to understand
what historically happens next. And what I'm trying to get at right now is historically,
when you go to S&P 500 and we look at all these things that I just talked about,
look at the S&P 500 RSI on the weekly. Look how oversold it is. So last time, and we're talking about circuit breakers,
that is to say they're stepping in, they're shutting down trading so people don't panic
sell. That's what's happening in traditional markets right now. So we're talking about that
happening right here in this oversold environment. So again, not opinion.
This is just, I want to look back at the charts and understand something. Last time circuit
breakers came on was during the COVID crash. I don't know if you were here. I was doing videos
through it all. It feels very similar. Obviously the storyline and what's happening is completely
different, but what is happening right now feels so similar. It was like game over for everything back here. And the circuit breakers,
that was the last time they were kind of enacted on markets, right? And look at the RSI falling
into oversold. If you would have panicked in that like two weeks of just capitulation, panic sold,
got out of the market, you would have
sold the bottom. You would have done what I did in 2008, 2009. And here's the thing. I think the
circuit breakers went on like four times in March, 2020, when all that was happening. It was so bad,
but look what happened. But if you just go back, and I thought this is what's very interesting.
but look what happened. But if you just go back, and I thought this is what's very interesting.
If you just go back and you look at these charts, look how not frequent the RSI on the weekly has
even been hit at this oversold level. Last time literally was COVID. And even before that,
we were not even this low. And this was the December 2018 bear market low when the S&P 500
was hitting the 200 week moving average. And this was all the tariff fear back then, right? And also,
by the way, that was a low for crypto as well. The December 2018, if you remember, I don't know
if you were here, but I was doing videos through that. But then you just, you keep zooming out and
you're like, man, look at this. We're even more oversold
than we were back here in 2011, going all the way back to 2011. The last time besides COVID,
S&P 500 was this oversold was the 2008, 2009 crash. So this is very personal for me
because the last time besides COVID, which we survived, we got through
everybody and markets went much higher. The money printers came on. And as Plutus Staking just
mentioned to me, just commented to me, they did it. Multiple countries have halted trading,
everything collapsing, rates will come down soon, QE will start. We're heading into that
trajectory. There could be still some more downside. I'm going to talk about it. There could
be more pain. I'm going to talk about it. We're going to look at targets. But I'm just saying,
if you historically go back and just look at every time what crypto has done and what S&P 500 has done when we get to these levels, the answer is very clear.
It bounced and it went higher. And that just is what it is.
So I'm not going to get it all into the tariff stuff because it's become too much of a heated
debate with people. And when people when people get to just so heated about
these things, it becomes political. Then it becomes hateful. And it's just like, come on,
dude, come on. So that's SMP 500 data. And if you look at this, this fear and volatility index,
just look at how high we are right now. This is a very big indicator. So I don't know when it will top out,
but here's COVID just to give you a sense of what that looks like. And then here's that 2018 bear
market low. So this is where we are right now. It is getting quite crazy. So I want to go and I want
to look at this comment because this will apply to the charts.
And if you're out there right now, please.
We got 3,000 people probably, what, mostly on X, I'm assuming.
But smash the like button if you're out there.
I need to love everybody.
I really do.
I need that love.
I was just saying in the Discord, like, I don't enjoy this any more than you.
Do you realize that? Like, I hope you all realize I'm a crypto holder just doing videos. I'm in
your shoes watching my portfolio crash. So like, I'm not sitting here outside of that bubble.
I'm in the bubble with you and I don't like it, but I'm absolutely committed to my thesis on the
space. I'm committed to my thesis on these
charts. Kidding me? Look at Bitcoin right now. Bitcoin's crashing. The world is turning on the
circuit breakers and it's $79,000. Do you understand that? That's what I look at. I was
doing videos here at $4,000. That's what I'm looking at. And I'm like,
this is nuts. We're getting into oversold historically on the S&P 500 and Bitcoin's
at 79,000. And we're going to look at targets of downside, but this is the bigger picture that I'm
focused on. And that's why it does excite me, even while things are looking really bad on the
short term. And it's frustrating on the short term. Trust me, I don't even look at my portfolio. It's not good. I don't even look at it.
But that doesn't mean I'm not bullish because I'm just so bullish. I just am. And a lot of
people don't like me for that. It's okay. So let's check it out. I want to start with Bitcoin and I want to use this comment. So
I don't think so, Dan. We've never been here is what that comment is saying. We've never been
here before. And I just want to show you something from Swing High for Bitcoin. And I hope Pospone
is watching. And it's a great comment because even when I'm zoomed in,
I'm like, dude, we've never been here before.
It feels like that.
This is terrible.
28% to the downside, Bitcoin.
Last consolidation for Bitcoin when we hit 73 or whatever
to August, 2024, down 33%.
Look at this.
We've been here before.
And oddly enough, if you go look at so many different indicators, we're in such a similar
vibe as like that bottom.
And I'm not saying the bottom is in.
I'm just saying, if you remember, it was like very bad back here in August 2024.
We've been here before.
And you might be like, well, that's Bitcoin.
Okay, we can go to
Cardano chart. Cardano from this swing high around a year ago to swing low down 60 some percent,
right? 66%. Right now we're down 58%. And you might be like, well, we were kind of still in
the bear market. We weren't completely out of the bear market. Well, I want to say we were exited the bear market
and this was a very big dip.
We've been here before.
This just happened.
Right now we're falling
while circuit breakers are being turned on as we speak.
And this, we could go lower, okay?
We're going to look at targets on these charts.
But I'm just saying,
we have a green candle right now on ADA even.
And I know people are going to be like,
you're ridiculous, dude.
But my point is like, if crypto is going to fail right now is the time it would be,
it would be going to zero right now, because on the S and P 500 chart, we are like in, like We are in an environment that we've not been in.
I mean, besides COVID, we've not been here since 2011, 2008.
If crypto is going to fail, it'll be right now.
And I'm telling you right now, I don't think it's going to fail.
So, but put that aside.
Even put aside this big dip on ADA, right? I'm saying, hey, we've been
here before. It just happened right there. I'm saying to, and by the way, this was the August
2024 low as well. So you can see Bitcoin. There it is. We've been here before. You can see ADA.
There it is. We've been here before. But I want to go back further actually into a non-bear market
environment and say, hey, ADA has been here before. Check this
out. This was ADA July, 2020 after COVID. We bounced out of it. Look, 17 cents down to 7 cents,
56% dip, 56% dip right before the massive bull run last cycle. Right now we're down 56%.
So again, we've been here before. That's what I down 56%. So again, we've been here before. That's
what I mean when I'm like, we've been here before. Because whether it was last year, whether it was
right before the last bull run, this is the volatility that we see in crypto. I've been
doing these videos almost every day for over seven years. And this is just the way that it is.
And so that's why I'm saying we've been here before.
So appreciate you guys in the comments.
I'm just looking through some comments,
seeing what you're all thinking.
Yeah, I mean, Powell is dragging his feet
he needs to lower interest rates
is what he needs to do
amen shout out to Jesus
patience is key
people saying buy the dip are just as worse as the bears
if you guys notice I don't say anything about buying or selling
I don't say buy the dip I don't sit here doing that I'm not like that
that doesn't mean I don't think it. Thank you for watching. I appreciate it.
I can respect this comment. I believe you are out of your mind. I completely understand how
you might think that, and that's okay. But come back in a year and tell me what you think.
Genuinely, even if we're sitting at zero
and I'm doing a live stream.
It's crazy.
It's just, yeah, it's,
I mean, I feel like it's just such a weird time, man, because I'm sitting here doing this video. I see how bad
it is. I see how bad the portfolios are and things, things on the macro though, are, are
lining up very well. And it's so hard for me to communicate that. It's so hard for me to sit
here during this time and communicate that because I just know that people don't want to really hear
it. But even this article, I just came across Wall Street braced for a Bitcoin and crypto price
game changer. And then I'll talk about targets for Bitcoin to the downside and Cardano. And I want to look at the Ethereum oscillator, but an existential threat to the banking industry as well as financial system.
Congress rushing to pass major new crypto legislation in the form of stablecoin bill
that could see interest paid out to people holding the dollar peg cryptos.
people holding the dollar peg cryptos. So what's crazy is right now, we're seeing a restructuring
of trade with the tariffs from a global standpoint, and it's throwing markets into chaos.
That's what we're seeing happening. Whether you want to debate about it or not, doesn't matter.
That's what's happening. There's a complete restructuring on a global scale. But while this is happening, people are being very
distracted, especially crypto holders. And I'm talking to you, me, we're not remembering the
restructuring that's happening to the financial system right now. And it's all coming to crypto.
Tens of trillions of dollars are coming to crypto. And that's why when I think of that,
which I'm convinced of, and then I go look at the S&P 500 being in this oversold environment,
and it can go lower, but historically has bounced out of this environment and has gone higher.
Those are two very simple things. Restructuring a financial system,
trillions of dollars coming to crypto, stock market getting close to a bottom is going to bottom. I don't know when. I'm not going to call the bottom. And then it's going to keep going
higher. So for a macro investor, those are some nice ingredients. But it goes on. Strong global momentum in stablecoins is likely to attract institutional interest in a digital asset that has long-term growth potential while acting as a credible bridge between traditional assets and crypto.
It's happening, everybody.
So let's go to Bitcoin.
Let's talk about price targets and all that.
Look at ADA and look at Ethereum.
And maybe some other alts,
like if you guys want to check it out.
It is crazy, the Ethereum chart to look at.
It's just, so, all right, I digress. So 33% dip in swing high to swing low back there in August
2024. It was looking so bad and so far in a 28% dip. It's not even that bad yet. This was worse
if we're really looking at this. So how much lower could Bitcoin go? Well, first off,
let me explain the first reason i don't want it to
go lower and i guess it doesn't matter what i want it probably will maybe i shouldn't say that
maybe it won't go lower it would be amazing to see support here and i'll explain why inverse
head and shoulders multi-year inverse head and shoulders with the throwback y'all remember i was
talking much about over a hundred thousand i just showed a talking much about over a hundred thousand. I just showed a clip. We were
over a hundred thousand dollars, the throwback, we are there. So the reason why I'm just saying
I want it to hold is because when we're looking at this chart, if this held, and maybe it could,
maybe this week could, maybe, maybe we could go lower, right? And it just capitulates,
but we get a candle close above the 50
and above this neckline
because that's the neckline.
We got the throwback to the neckline
of the inverse head and shoulders.
It would just be just unbelievable setup.
That is just something,
if you do technical analysis,
if we get a hold at the neckline
or this 50-week moving average,
which is very confluent with the neckline,
it's just going to be one for the books.
That's what it would be.
So I don't know how that will happen or how that would play out
because this week is looking to potentially be volatile,
but I will say this.
We've been surprised many times, and I'm telling you,
right now we're looking at all these, you know, all of these
headlines, suspending trading, circuit breakers being turned on. Remember when the circuit breakers
were turned on last time it happened for S&P was back here, 2020 COVID swing low that basically
marked the bottom. I just want to say that. So everybody's like, it's all over. And
then all of a sudden, big green candle, and it was never the same. So if you're going and you're
looking at a Bitcoin chart, there's a case where it could happen. But if we go lower, let's talk
about targets to the upside, to the downside. I'm sorry. So targets to the downside, if that neckline in red doesn't hold,
I have the daily up because I think it does just the best at kind of visualizing.
But it's, and I think we've talked about it already.
It's your general swing low of that August fear 2024
to the nice rally we had, swing high, all-time high.
And it's a high or low Fibonacci.
And you notice even amidst all this fear, in the midst of everything that is going on right now,
we've not even hit that area yet. So that high or low area and the targets for Bitcoin,
if this trends to be a bad week for markets and it does capitulate even more, I'd be watching $72,000 at the 618
to around $62,000 at the 786.
And that just is what it is.
And what blows my mind about it, really,
and I really mean this,
is even with everything going on,
Bitcoin's crashing to $63,000. And I realize it's probably not as
meaningful for you, especially if you just got into Bitcoin and crypto right here in October
2024. Or even very recently, I could just understand how you're just incredibly annoyed
if you just got into crypto right here at the top. But the reason why it's so meaningful to me is because I've just been
covering crypto for so long. And we've always joked about, man, soon we'll have $10,000 moves
like they're nothing. And really, that's where we are, right? And Bitcoin might be capitulating
in an environment where the S&P 500 is falling to just record-breaking oversold environments.
is falling to just record-breaking oversold environments,
and we're talking about Bitcoins in the 60,000s,
that's something else.
That is something to pay attention to.
And that's why I just don't get these comments.
I really just don't understand it.
And I don't mean to highlight negativity on the YouTube channel, everybody,
but I just don't get it. And I don't mean to highlight negativity on the YouTube channel, everybody,
but I just don't get how Victor and so many others,
I sit here, I'm throwing out just some crazy data.
And so many are.
Victor, the stock market is transferring wealth from the inpatient to the patient over the last few days.
And that's what's happening in crypto.
Victor, what are you watching? What are you thinking?
What part of the data do you not understand is what I'm very curious about. I wish I could just be like, press a button and Victor's on the live stream with me. I literally want to have
conversations with all you guys. Good conversations. I just don't know. I just
don't get where your head's at. I can't comprehend where it's at. How could you not be bullish on
Bitcoin and crypto? How? I should gather around all of the negative comments. I should work hard
to get them in a live stream and literally just sit here and talk.
I really should.
Victor said that I said the same thing months ago.
And actually what's so ironic, Victor,
and then we'll move on,
is months ago I was talking about this exact Bitcoin throwback, buddy.
We were talking about the potential for
continuation. Of course, we always do, but we were in preparation of a throwback to the neckline.
Now we've gotten that throwback as a technical analyst. I just think that's a beautiful throwback,
number one, but we're in this very high fear environment where Bitcoin's like, it's been holding pretty
steady.
And speaking of that, it's not just Bitcoin.
I know altcoins are just ridiculously frustrating.
So much of the industry has been waiting for, you know, altcoin bull market, including myself.
And it did not happen in the timing that has always happened. And that's been very frustrating,
right? And not only that, it was like app actually really toyed with us because the moment that we
all thought it was going to happen, it started to, right? November, it just took off. Maybe get a
little dip, but it never continued. And here we are. We're just, you know, recent weeks, months,
couple months. It's just, it's frustrating all of you guys. It frustrates me. I get it. I really do.
But at the same time, I can't sit here and be like, you know,
expect that, you know, we deserve that it played out exactly how we thought it would. These are markets.
We anticipate everything, but they are unpredictable, especially when we have
things like we're waiting on the money printers. We're waiting on the quantitative tightening to
come to an end. We're waiting on Jerome Powell. Now we have tariff stuff that needs to price into
the markets. We have all these things happening that just you can't even absolutely predict, right? But here's the good news. I'm telling you, the tariff stuff will be
over soon. And I think in an actual positive beneficial way to the economy and the markets.
And the other good news is we have quantitative tightening is going to be coming to an end.
And I will highlight again, in case you missed it, the comment that I got from Plutus Staking
on X right before I went live.
You see that 937 timestamp.
Trump did it.
Multiple countries have halted trading.
Rates will come down soon and QE will start.
All you have to do is study monetary cycles. All you have
to do is study cycles in general. And you will see what is setting up right now. And so much of it
is orchestrated. That's what's crazy. And I genuinely think it's for another video, but I
probably won't even do a video on it. This transfer to crypto is so orchestrated.
And I genuinely think that massive whales are accumulating.
They're getting in.
And it's happening.
Let's talk about targets.
So we talk about targets to the downside for Bitcoin.
In case you missed it, 72,000 to 62,000.
It's a higher low on Bitcoin. It's you miss it, 72,000 to 62,000, it's a
higher low on Bitcoin. It's just what we should watch out for at this moment, especially because
this week's going to be probably crazy. I will mention, I wanted to point this out and then I'll
go to ADA and then look at Ethereum. Do you see how Bitcoin price is operating right there?
Right in that same area of support, 78, 78, right at that neckline, which is crazy to me if that
holds. But notice what the RSI is doing, higher low on the RSI, showing a bit of momentum,
like it doesn't want to crash. But don't be immediately faked out by that. It's just
something I wanted to note because you never know everybody. We get this breakout,
and it could be next level, faking everybody out. It would be very enjoyable.
So this was from the other day,
quick clip Cardano video for ADA
down here in the 40s is what it is.
It's painful to even say,
I don't like it,
but you can just see even a Fibonacci,
the 786, high or low 786 is right around 50, right?
So we could fall lower on ADA,
but, and I don't like it. I don't like it at all, but here we are. And we're not there yet.
I mean, we're at 58 cents now. It's like, we're just like trickling down. It's like
little pain here and there, and we're trickling down. But here's the deal with ADA. This is ADA
on the weekly, and you can just see we have that kind of blue trend line that I've been watching. And area interest is obviously
that blue line down there in the 40s that I was talking about in the video. But similar to Bitcoin,
it's a Fibonacci, which ADA is there, right? It's in the Fibonacci. So Fibonacci from the August
2000 or yeah, well, this was a July,
no, this was August 2024 swing low to that beautiful swing high around $1.30.
ADA has retraced all the way back down to a higher low Fibonacci. 618, 670.50 is a 786. So what I want to mention very briefly, because I know we're
talking a lot about downside, is in the case of upside, the 50-week moving average is around 60
and the 200-week moving average is around 71. That range, we're going to,
it's going to be a moving range, right? It's not going to stay the same, but it'll, it'll move
very slowly. That range is just a very important range to continually watch. Not, not every day,
but keep an eye on. If we have a, if we had some type of nice green week, somehow, if it ended up that way,
breaking back above the 50-week moving average would be very meaningful. Breaking back above
this 200-week moving average in red, even more meaningful because then we're talking again,
once again, we're talking bull market reversal, bull confirmation indicator stuff.
The true bull indicators up here are still at $1.25.
It always will be.
But right now, Cardano from the 50
is around 4% away.
From the 200, 23% away.
So let's see, okay?
I'm not saying that's where we're going,
but that's an area to keep an eye on.
To the downside,
if we change this to a daily chart,
we kind of get a better visualization
of what things look like.
And my chart's not loading.
And I wonder if I'm even on my live.
Am I still live?
So here's the deal with this. Black Monday. I'm just, I don't know. It very well could be,
Lance. It very well could be. But I can't tell you how many times we've seen
this big narrative, even a bullish narrative, and then the market goes the other direction.
So I'm not saying we're going up, but I'm just saying, imagine Black Monday doesn't
actually end up happening. But it very well can. So this is why I'm just saying, imagine Black Monday doesn't actually end up happening.
But it very well can. So this is why I'm doing this video. I want targets to downside.
Hey, we got 5,000 people on 5,200 people on the live stream. Let's get that to 10% likes, everybody. Smash the like button.
people are panicking because they have invested more than they can afford to invest. I'll hold
my ADA for the next five years, at least. I think anybody holding crypto for the next five years,
at least, is going to do incredibly well. If you're new to the live stream, the only one,
I'm not going to keep going back and showing everything I talked about in this video, but the one thing I just absolutely want to just
keep pointing out is the S&P 500. It's not to say it's not going to go lower here on the RSI,
this oversold, but this is record breaking. This was COVID. We were approaching COVID levels,
got the circuit breakers in play right now happening. And guess what? The circuit breakers
were in play for COVID back here. Uh, four times the circuit breakers came on for the S and P 500,
I believe a back here in that dip. And then it was a bounce out. I'm not saying we're going to just,
you know, bounce out just as beautifully. Okay. But I am absolutely saying it is a good idea, especially with everything going on,
quantitative tightening slowing down soon. If they're going to be pushed to move a little
quicker now, it's a good idea to pay attention is all I'm saying. So I don't know what the bottom
formation will look like. I'm sure it won't look the same as COVID back here, the March 2020 low.
I'm sure it won't look the same as COVID back here, the March 2020 low. However, pay attention
to that move. Pay attention to the 2018 bear market low because we're in those levels.
So pay attention to this 2011 swing low. We're at those levels.
Back to ADA. Here's what it looks like on the daily chart now that my chart finally loaded.
So it's just trickling down. It's just trickling down. The one piece of hopium that could very
quickly fail and just absolutely stop being hopium could happen in an hour. It could happen
overnight in the morning is this bullish divergence. So we have like a lower low
on price. And the purpose of this video is not to just do bullish data, but lower low on price,
higher low on the RSI. We need a very quick bounce. But even from this back here in February,
you can just see RSI trying to put in a higher low and then price back there
right around 67 cents.
Now we're all the way down here.
So there's some bullish divergence on the ADA chart.
And I think for good reason, right?
Like I think ADA chart is generally just very bullish.
And we can't help as altcoin holders what's happening right now, like with the tariff
and with the markets. We just can't help as altcoin holders what's happening right now like with with the tariff and with
with the markets we just can't help it but i will say i think i think ada is holding up pretty well
i really do um this is just an altcoin chart in general studying these charts over the years
doing analysis almost every day but the fact that ADA is just holding on the way it is,
same with Bitcoin and others, during this chaos, it's something to keep an eye on.
That's a good idea. I'll have to keep an eye on things and assess as we go.
I'll have to keep an eye on things and assess as we go.
Dan, are you possibly seeing it could maybe extend Bull Run into 2027,
or is that not a thing?
It's such a thing, Marco.
I think Mike Alford on X,
I think I recently showed a post of Mike Alford on X
kind of saying something like that.
2026, 2027.
That's kind of the super cycle narrative.
And I've not really talked much about it
because I just know the comments that I'm going to get.
Even maybe some people are thinking that right now.
You're moving the gold post.
You're moving the gold post, dude. You're such a scammer. But this is what I'm
thinking. And I think so many people are. I think and there's a lot of smart people that I follow
that I think are that are that are thinking this. That's the one thing is I do my analysis.
It's good to look at people that have been in the market longer than I have in crypto that are very well respected. And I like seeing them like incredibly bullish.
They're macro value investors like myself. That makes me say, you know what? I'm not,
I can't be that crazy with the data that I'm seeing to be bullish. And so somebody said, you hit 400,000 subs. I haven't hit it. It's been grueling. It's been
almost impossible in this current state of things. But thank you, dude. I appreciate it.
But yeah, extended cycle. Absolutely. I mean, we have to give these markets time to play out, but just think about this, right?
If you go to the S&P 500 chart, I know there's so much going on here, but if I can just draw
your attention to quantitative tightening, beginning back here, bear market. And by the way,
crypto bear market looks very similar. That was the bear market, right?
If you go to ADA chart, I keep coming to this ADA chart and it's not loading,
but there's quantitative tightening starting.
Bear market, grueling, still waiting for it all.
We're still waiting for quantitative tightening to start slowing down,
for quantitative tightening starts slowing down, but we're getting very close. And so if things
but we're getting very close.
really do kick off and if it plays out this way, I always say if, because you all know we have to
anticipate everything. It could all fail. It could all go to zero. I don't know. But if crypto is
bullish, if trillions do come into play, if the institutions are buying and positioning,
if it plays out and quantitative tightening is about to come to an end, especially now
with what's going on right now because of these tariffs, absolutely. I don't think we're looking
at a scenario where it's like all over right here in October, 2025. I think it's a scenario where
things are extending because
of the monetary cycle itself and because of what is happening. Not to mention, I think
people are going to be very pleasantly surprised with the effect of tariffs on the US economy.
And everybody's saying recession too, recession 2025. The one thing I just want to sprinkle onto that is for the last
around 70 years, the year before the recession was worse for the markets rather than the year
of the recession. Meaning the year before the recession was worse. So that means if 2025 is going to be a recession,
it doesn't mean the market is going to react so bad.
The market is not the economy.
And I think that's a very important point to remember.
I just want to say, I hope you have a great week
a great start to your week
I hope you cheer up
and I'm also going to have to
ban you now
they're coming out of the woodworks, everybody.
Coming out.
Next FOMC meeting May 7th.
I don't know.
We're going to get like an emergency one.
Yes, I'm sorry.
I'm talking too much.
I will talk about ETH.
So ETH is crazy. ETH down 61% from previous swing highs. It's incredible to look at that
when you're comparing it to ADA. ADA is not even down that much from previous swing highs.
You look at ADA bear market low to where we are up 165% still. There's some positive data, I guess.
Even though I wish ADA was at like $3 right now. And Ethereum up only 78% from the bear market low.
So really crazy to see Ethereum struggle so much. And I don't know. There's so many theories on why
that is. And it very simply could be
because perhaps the only thing Ethereum has going for it
is the first mover narrative.
And I'm not sure that's much these days.
And I hate to say that.
It's not going anywhere.
It's an OG.
But in terms of like what it has going for itself,
I think there are things like Cardano
that have so much more, especially in terms of like what it has going for itself, I think there are things like Cardano that have
so much more, especially in terms of market share to capture. That's why there's more upside for
Cardano. XRP, very similar story. So Ethereum right now though, what I wanted to discuss is
the oscillators because again, look at this. So we've been hopping around a lot of charts. We talked
about targets on Bitcoin to downside, ADA on the downside. If we look at the RSI for Ethereum,
kind of like similar to what we were just doing on S&P 500 going back to like 2008 on the RSI
and what that oversold signal really signals. Ethereum, kind of similar, right?
Not going back as far,
but look at every time we've fallen
pretty much where Ethereum is right now.
It has been a bottom.
Let's just say that.
Does that mean this will be the fourth time,
gonna be a bottom?
It does not necessarily mean that,
but like the S&P 500 data,
I'm one that tends to think, yeah, we can go lower on the short term. So even the weekly RSI
here might go lower, but the bottom is getting close in my opinion. It could be grueling. You
can even see this bottom, we look at this as a bottom,
but it took a while and it was grueling, right? It bounced out and then it went down again.
So I don't know what that will look like, but what I do want to point out to you is
back here, quantitative tightening beginning even bottomed out. Right here,
even bottomed out. Right here, quantitative tightening ended.
I should say, you know, quantitative tightening around 2018, beginning of 2019, it didn't end.
We got signals that it was getting ready to end. And then it was like September, October 2019,
it really ended.
But we're getting into a similar area like that right here on the ETH charts is what I'm saying at a similar oversold area.
And so what happened next?
You know, a bull market eventually ensued.
COVID was sprinkled in there right now.
I think we can almost look at the tariff move that's happening sprinkled in here kind of as
COVID was. So that's what I think is happening right now. And the cycle is thrown off and it's
throwing a lot of people off, but we have to just readjust with the data and put the data together.
And so you see all of these things kind of coming together. COVID was not the end.
And quantitative tightening had just wrapped up right here. Pariffs, this whole thing happening
is not the end. Quantitative tightening is wrapping up very soon and Ethereum is oversold.
and Ethereum is oversold.
I don't think that's moon boy stuff.
Right?
I'm trying to offer very
just obvious data.
And maybe, again,
maybe, I don't know,
maybe it doesn't play out
bullish on the long term.
And I'm completely wrong about crypto.
Appreciate you guys cruising through
you Seth Shepard.
I recognize that name from the Discord.
What's up, Seth?
Not saying we don't have a capitulation wick,
but I think markets are recovered by this summer.
It's like, it's a good prediction.
I don't like doing predictions, tend to agree seth really do
thank you for watching daniel appreciate you
man we got a lot of a lot of people to ban in the comments.
My mod is like, I think, ahead in time.
We got Jerome Powell literally here.
We appreciate you, Dan.
You lost here without your input.
Thanks, Jerome Powell.
Great.
Jerome Powell.
Hey, Jerome Powell, can you go bring up a truflation chart, please?
Unbelievable.
I didn't even talk about this today.
Ticked down again, truflation, this leading indicator.
Now it just ticked up a little bit, but 1.46%. Leading indicator for CPI data coming
out very soon. That's the other thing that is getting ready to happen. So this is going to be
just a crazy week right now that we're stepping into. So please be prepared. We talked about
targets. I think it will be interesting to see if the targets can hold. RSI, again, on that Bitcoin chart looking very interesting. Let's see how that plays out. Kind of very curious.
Very curious.
But going back to the Bitcoin chart,
there's our higher low Fibonacci from the August 2024 low,
$72,000 to $62,000 target.
In an event, we get capitulation.
So let's see.
Don't know what will wake up tomorrow, everybody.
I really don't.
And then ADA.
Target to the downside.
I should have kept the Fibonacci on the screen,
but swing low to swing high,
lower end of the Fibonacci, 50 cents.
And if it does continue trickling down,
I meant to talk about this.
You see this trend, this trend line,
just lower lows, grueling, lower lows.
All the while, a little bit of bullish momentum on the RSI.
Don't know if it will hold going in this week, something to keep an eye on.
But lower lows, and you can just see this could trickle into the 40s.
It could capitulate into the 40s.
It could be a very, very brutal time, everybody.
So I just want to say brace for impact if it happens
i don't want to say don't freak out but i'll be doing my best not to freak out and i'll be
zooming out myself on all of these charts s&p 500 include included one thing i didn't mention
last mp 500 as we've we've really been focusing on the RSI being
oversold is the 200 week moving average, 4,600. I mean, it's not even far away at this point.
It's an 8% move away. If we go back to COVID, you can just see we're kind of hanging out there. We are
about to capitulate to the 200. This is in 2020, by the way, that was an 11% move, but that week
we saw a 15, 16% red weekly candle. And then it was really looking bad, right? Maybe we're
stepping into this kind of week down to the 200-week moving average.
It is looking like it's game over.
Circuit breakers, there they are.
Last time it happened.
And then that week,
and the week I'm talking about, by the way,
is S&P 500,
fall to the 200-week moving average.
That was not even the bottom.
We went lower.
So are we in this kind of environment?
We have to hit the 200. We have to go lower. We have to feel the pain.
So many people getting flushed out. So many people leaving. Is that kind of where we are?
Right? How is this week going to play out? Are we going to hit the 200 week moving average?
What is that going to do to crypto? Keep an eye on all of these things.
That's what I'll be doing.
But you better believe I will be absolutely zooming out.
Yeah, people, I agree with that.
Well, a lot of people are not understanding the big picture here, and that's okay.
I see Marco talking about the Bitcoin.
I should have talked about this move on the Bitcoin chart,
because you got to be very careful paying attention to one indicator.
That indicator is, you know,
you're going to see lots of headlines and stuff about it.
It is the 50 day moving average crossing below the 200. Later, you're going to see lots of headlines and stuff about it.
It is the 50-day moving average crossing below the 200.
That is apparently the big one.
Incredibly bearish.
Look at that move.
So the reason I'm bringing that up is because if we scroll back a little bit
and we go look
at the last time it happened,
you see Bitcoin capitulating
August 2024.
That 50-day moving average
crossing below the 200
literally marked the bottom.
So we can't use one indicator like that at all,
especially on a daily chart.
It's so unreliable.
It could be an actually very bullish indicator.
We can talk about how an indicator like that
could be a lagging indicator.
The reason that the 50-day moving average is even doing that is because Bitcoin has fallen so
much because,
because Bitcoin has consolidated so much.
If Bitcoin were to bounce soon would be the time that it does.
And that's why this is kind of like,
that's why back here it actually marked the bottom.
So I'm not saying it's going to do the same thing,
but I'm just saying, I think we have to be very careful with how we read that.
But yeah, I mean, we could have a situation where it kind of,
you know, does something like that because Bitcoin goes lower, because we're hitting the
higher low Fibonacci, swing low to swing to swing high, back down to the 62, right?
62 is the lower end of the Fibonacci.
72 is the upper end.
Maybe we're falling.
Maybe that's what capitulation looks like for Bitcoin.
In which case, that 50 is definitely going to be, you know,
going a little bit lower, more volatile.
And then maybe we're putting in a bottom.
I don't know.
Maybe some of the bears out there are completely right
and we're going all the way back down to 20, 30,000.
I don't know.
Maybe that's what's going to happen.
Always anticipate upside and downside.
I'm not saying that's what I think is going to happen at all.
We all know that.
Time to buy Ethan Ada.
Honestly,
it could be a very, very, very, very true statement that most might not even understand
until they look back on that statement
and they say,
man, that was a good time to buy Ethan Ada.
Why didn't I buy Ethan Ada?
That's what happens.
That's why it's so uncomfortable to buy the fear.
And maybe I will end with that.
Historically on the S and P 500 chart. And this is just historically going back. We went back so
far on this chart. Historically, the bottom happens. I'm not saying tomorrow, but the bottom is getting close.
And many of us were here together right here. The last time we were in this oversold environment,
circuit breakers coming on. And before we knew it, the bottom was in. I don't know what that
will look like this time, but I'm just saying,
please be prepared. Because even right now, you probably, when I say this, you're going to be like,
shoot, I did forget about that. Because everybody's so distracted by all this capitulation.
But do you remember what's going on right now? Do you remember what is happening in crypto?
Do you remember that Gensler's not there anymore?
That we have a pro-crypto administration
that wants crypto to go higher?
They want the stock market to go higher.
You better believe they're orchestrating everything they can right now.
They're tolerating and allowing the short-term pain, right? But Bitcoin Reserve,
nation states racing for Bitcoin. Do you understand the bullish atmosphere that we're in right now
while S&P 500 is entering record-breaking oversold area? That historically has been
the buy indicator. If you would have bought every
time it gets here, that's where S&P 500 is getting. So what do you think happens for crypto
when the bounce finally happens? And I'm not saying it's happening this week,
but I'm just saying, if you can just zoom out a little bit, we're probably in a way better area
than we were right here.
And isn't that crazy to think about that?
Everybody's fine and bullish back here.
But when everything resets and in a healthy way,
longs are getting liquidated.
It's just nobody wants to be bullish. but i will sit here and say now is the
time to be bullish and that's only because of what the data says going back a very long time
on these markets and so crypto i think is is so well positioned right now to you know do very
well in that environment when things do bounce.
And that's kind of what I'm waiting for.
I'm surviving out here, just like the rest of you.
And I don't always enjoy it.
You can ask my wife, Sarah.
You can ask her.
She knows.
So let's see what happens going into this week. I'll be doing a video probably early tomorrow as well
because when markets open,
it's going to be very interesting to see
what stock market does, what crypto does.
We have our targets we looked at in this video,
and if you were out there hanging out with me,
definitely appreciate it.
Y'all make it, I mean,
you really make it more tolerable
to go through this stuff.
Hop on here and see the comments and everything.
So I appreciate, I really do. I appreciate you guys. I think it's going to pay off very well.
And I think we're going to have a lot of fun, but we have to go through the tough times too.
But that is life, isn't it? So hit the subscribe if you're not a subscriber.
Smash the like button if you enjoyed the video and enjoy your night and have a good
start to your week. I'll see you in the next video. God bless.
