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Crypto crash continues as Trump threatens more tariffs
Recorded: March 31, 2025 Duration: 0:55:15Space Recording
Short Summary
The crypto market is experiencing significant developments, including the launch of the Guns token by Off The Grid Game on AVAX and its listing on the Binance launch pool. Bitcoin miner Mara plans a two billion dollar stock offering to acquire more Bitcoin, while Japan's classification of crypto as a financial product introduces new insider trading rules. The ETH Bitcoin ratio has hit a five-year low, and Taproot Wizards' floor price is declining. Meanwhile, Bored Apes are showing growth, maintaining a strong ETH floor price.
Full Transcription
Welcome to the modern market where every day we discuss everything to do with the modern market.
That is the crypto market, the NFT market, and the down only Trump administration decisions,
which leads to some despicable price action.
We will be talking about that and more as usual.
Load up discussion today.
We've got Bitcoin tumbling towards 81K.
We're going to be talking a little bit about the aggressive tariff rhetoric and everything else that's kind of wrapped up in some of the
negative price action at the moment not only in crypto but across the board we're talking about
the eth btc ratio hitting the same low from five years ago got some horrible stats to go through
there but we will summon up the strength to do that and we're going to be talking about guns the token by
off the grid game on avax which is going to launch today a lot of excitement there so hopefully that
will be a pocket of energy and excitement which should fingers crossed be good but we'll discuss
it in a bit we also got the latest on price action on crypto and nftTs plus a general set of thoughts on the market rotations in just a
little bit. We've got legendary and bread guy in the co-host seats with me. We're ready to get into
it. Just to remind the friends that nothing that we do say, think or anything else is financial
advice on this show. This market is very risky and we don't know anything for sure. So please
proceed with caution and exercise your own judgment at all times.
With that out of the way,
it's Monday.
It's the 31st of March.
Brad, how you doing?
Damn, the suspense and who you're going to call out.
I'm sitting there typing up.
I thought you might not have been concentrating.
Yeah, I know.
See, I rope-a-doped you.
I tricked you into thinking I wasn't paying attention
and therefore I was ready
thinking I wasn't ready.
Okay. Yeah.
Now I know. Things are great.
I'll pay that in mind next time.
Weather's starting to turn up a little bit. Did a little
shopping and shit.
Not just outside stuff. I spent most of
yesterday vibe coding. I was telling you guys before the show um i actually i was partially telling everyone in
the crowd should know that we actually have we've reached the point where we stopped telling each
other what like what we actually do for the show because like ah you probably want to hear for the
first time on the show and then here it is and also it's like look it's only you two here like
the value of the story is so huge.
Who are these guys?
Hundreds of people should hear it.
Yeah.
I have big arms X5999 in the crowd.
He deserves to hear it more than B-Check.
Yeah, I can't get a story out of these guys unless we're live anymore.
Life of a celebrity.
I didn't tell you guys the full story uh and what it was is that i said yes i have vibe coding uh everyone knows i make a bunch of pretty pictures
on the timeline most of that stuff is hand drawn and excaliburton excaliburton doesn't have like a
straight up import thing it's like i have to actually like hand all these fucking things
right like if you see a piece of bread it's because i made a piece of bread with a bunch of sticks right um so i started vibe coding and i was like i want to be able to import this shit
i want to find out an image i just want to drop an image and it turns into a scaldraw thing uh so
i built the thing out all cool i even got i was so impressed with myself i i videotaped myself
like going through the process like look what i did guys this is cool uh and in the process of doing that i found
a tool that was already built that already did this and was better than mine okay yep that is
i mean it sounds like you now don't have to do the work so that should be good but it sounds like i
was done with the work um that's the that's the kicker i was on the other end of it and i was
like all right this is cool i recorded my. I went back to check some stuff.
I found a link.
And then I was like, ah, fuck, this works well.
It probably looks better than mine. Sounds like you wish the other thing didn't exist and yours was better.
Yes, that is accurate.
So even though there is something exists which is more helpful to you,
you wish it didn't exist.
Yes.
To the detriment of everyone around me, because theirs was publicly accessible, right?
Mine was only my thing.
So now I'm going to pass it along to friends.
So that's the helpful thing that I'm coming away with.
Interesting.
Good stuff.
So, okay.
That's nice.
Spending a little time coding.
Yeah, I will say,
I'm in transition right now.
Everyone's in transition at the moment, Brad.
Going from Claude to ChatGPT.
I have premiums on both.
Okay, that's an acceptable type of transition.
I was wondering where you were going there.
I'll put it,
but yeah, I'm transitioning from Cla to chat gbt because like everyone was
doing their stuff with studio ghibli and it's man cloud doesn't do this shit and the free version of
chat gbt didn't do it um and i gotta say claude's still way better at making if you guys are doing
some technical stuff claude's way better um it just is like it it actually takes in like
things you wouldn't anticipate for like uh ui ux
stuff right if i give it the same prompt of two things like hey spin up this little website so i
can click this link on my local host to be able to do this cloud goes through the process of making
like all nice and like does these extra little little like niceties quality of life improvements
that like chat to be teachers gives me a fucking windows 95 box click the button
do you think it's all brand do you think it's because it's chat gpt is like just penetrated
people's brains a bit more and claude is claude like do we like claude started switching because
someone started because you're assessing it on the merit but no no because i i started switching
because someone else that i respect is also very technical
was like he's like man claude hallucinates a lot which i think is actually true so like it's very
good on these like the technical tasks but like if i said claude is the is the earth flat he'll
be like no bro that's dumb you're dumb now like i think you're wrong claude he's like you're right
i'm sorry i shouldn't have done that so like i want I want a little resistance. I want my, I want my AI
overlords to have a personality and, you know, a little oomph in their, their speech. And Claude
didn't have that. Got it. I see. Okay. Um, Legendry, how's, how's your AI overlords treating
you? You've been interacting quite a lot at the moment. Any updates on your AI relationship?
Are you transitioning at all at the moment?
Here's a story.
We talked about creative writing,
and I think it was on one of the shows with Adam from Proof of Play
when he said, nah, creative writing
is not quite there yet.
And GPT 4.5, when it comes to creative writing,
is insane because both of you have mentioned the term AI overlord.
And when I had the post on the weekend on my timeline where I was asking, what car would an ETH holder drive?
And it came up with this description, ETH holders don't bad, yada, yada, yada.
And I jokingly responded to chat GPT saying, thank you, AI over
lady. I went for the female
gendered version.
GPT 4.5 went into the most
insane role-playing mode, started
to call me a degenerate
little wallet warrior
and went on like that.
It was so suggestive in
all of its answers without
crossing the line.
Like it talked about, you know, draining your wallet.
It started to call itself AI mommy, which was insane to see like how finally it managed to walk that line without like being explicitly sexual.
And basically having to have the moderating algorithm coming in and basically censoring off the conversations.
That was insane to see how it got into this mode and also what i realized with gpt 4.5 is that it now
has a different tone depending on the stuff that you talk um that you're talking about so this was
the the the general wallet conversation basically then i'm you know i told jim like looking into
getting a car so i asked about a couple cars and stuff that I wanted to know. And then it goes like, Oh, bro, yeah, that's a dope, right? Yada,
yada, yada. And then when I talk about like my supplements, it talks very, you know, educational,
very like nerdy, it's really matching your style from conversation to conversation, which is
utterly insane, because like, I'm sitting there again sitting there again and I'm laughing when I'm reading those things.
So I have an emotional reaction to that,
which is very impressive to see.
As concerns the coding,
Brett, have you ever tried Bolt.new?
I haven't.
You should.
Take your prompt to Bolt.new.
It's super good basically at...
B-O-L-T.
B-O-L-T.new, yeah. So it's basically good basically at b-o-l-t b-o-l-t dot n dot new
yeah so it's basically super good at scaffolding building an app it can also like it's connected to
um supper base it can host your app use lovable yet okay okay i'm gonna try it uh try bolt on you
you will you will probably be pretty impressed by it it It's pretty, pretty cool. You can also, by the way,
upload a Figma now to Bolt
and be like, yo, take this Figma
and turn it into the app that I want to use.
There's a wireframe.
Nice.
Nice.
It's really good.
The superpowers, when you move all of these together,
like once you identify these AIs
that are tuned to these very specific tasks,
and then you're like, all right,
I need to vectorize my thing.
I need Bolt New to actually take this vector
and put it into a front-end UI that actually can let me just upload it
instead of actually having a call on the back end.
Gets pricey with the API calls, though.
Yeah, I kind of realized that I'm already spending like 1.5K a month
for AI subscriptions, so I definitely need to do a bit of a cleanup.
How much of that is Kaido?
Kaido
I actually have cancelled. So Kaido
is not a part of that equation anymore.
Kaido I have cancelled.
You shouldn't have said that on this basis because it
hears you and it's going to
nerf you.
Kaido's second season
in case you're listening, Kaido.
I haven't got the subscription,
but I'm open to it because I would like,
I love Kaito.
I'm having a back and forth with you right now.
And I had a post last night that everyone's kind of poking at because of someone gaming it.
And I'm helping you Kaito help me help you.
We are all very pro Kaito.
Kaito.
Good stuff. Right. Look, we need to get into the headlines. Can't just talk AI. We are all very pro-Kaito. In spite of what Legendary says.
Good stuff.
Right.
Look, we need to get into the headlines.
Can't just talk AI all day, although maybe it will make another appearance again.
Let's get into the price action as usual to get you up to speed with everything that is going on in the market, starting with the majors.
Unfortunately, we don't have a huge amount of good news when it comes to the price action.
We've got Bitcoin down a percent to 82, but that's down 6% on the week.
Ether is down almost 2% to 1.7 when I looked at it earlier.
It's at 1.8 now, which I don't know, still not that great.
XRP down 5% to $2, almost 10 cents.
BNB is at $594.
Solana is down a percent to 124. So not so big moves down the last 24 hours, but you know, bigger moves down over the last week on the meme coin side of things.
Let's see, we've got doge down 4% to 16 cents. That is all the gains. Um, a lot of the gains
given up now from the, you know, the mania phase, we've got Pepe down a couple of
percent. Trump's down a percent. Bonk is down 4%. Whiff is down four. Bartcoin is down eight,
down 30% on the week. SPX down eight. Pengu down seven. A lot of red across the board,
I would say. AI-16Z is flat, but look, all of this stuff is pretty red today. All things considered,
Mog's down five percent as well
getting into the main headlines themselves we've got bitcoin tumbling towards 81k legendary's going
to break down a little bit the tariff stuff that's going on and any other factors feels like there's
a swirling set of factors now which is kind of acting as a dark cloud over not just the crypto
market but all the markets in general. Looking forward to Legendry explaining his thoughts there. I'll have some too. The ETH Bitcoin ratio in other news is hitting the
same low from five years ago. If you're looking on screen, this chart is not nice. To be fair,
it's the same chart that a lot of charts are looking, it looks like the Tesla chart recently,
which was just completely up towards the Trump inauguration
and then just given up all the gains.
And that's kind of what Ether has done over the last four to five year period.
Although obviously Tesla is on a shorter timeframe.
And then finally, the highly anticipated guns token by Off The Grid Game on AVAX is launching
today.
That's something that people are excited about
um it's it's on the binance launch pool as well so watching that closely to see how that goes not
only for you know seeing how web 3 gaming is going but also from the perspective of just seeing how
new token launches are going in this market i know a lot of tokens are still to launch
we'll discuss that in a second in more detail. On the NFT side, Legendary, is there anything that we need to know about?
I know ETH is sliding in price.
So how are the NFTs holding up?
Yeah, very good question.
Bored Apes are doing pretty well.
They are holding well above the 14 ETH floor, sitting at 14.4 ETH.
Still up 7% over the week, up 2% over the last 24 hours.
The rest of the majors don't look that good.
Pudgies have fallen under 10 ETH.
Other collections are down as well.
One exception or one other exception are the punks.
In ETH levels, in ETH terms,
they are holding up extremely well.
Again, 42.6 ETH.
However, in USD terms, because ETH is down,
obviously that's quote-unquote only a 77k USD floor.
And also quickly wanted to check in with the Taproot Wizards side of things. Volume wise,
insane volume on that collection, more than 100 BTC 101.1 to be specific. Floor price, however,
has been trending down and is currently sitting at 0.168 btc so sliding down under the mint price at
least for um the people who are either they're minting at 0.2 btc or for the few who have minted
in the public dutch auction excellent i've got some thoughts on that in a little bit as well
because uh i put a tweet out there a lot of a lot of reaction people love talking about
uh i put a tweet out there there's a lot of a lot of reaction people love talking about
nft mints especially when you get a chance to dunk on a founder that i think is people's favorite
pastime of all uh getting up you have to speak with everything else first though bitcoin miner
mara eyes two billion dollar stock offering to buy more bitcoin we had trump pardoning arthur
hayes and other bitmex founders uh they were that was one of the old crypto exchanges.
Japan to classify crypto as a proper founder.
Did you see their dance video?
That was funny.
That was funny.
It was funny that the news came out
that he was getting pardoned
and then the dance video came out at the same time.
Yeah, for people who didn't see it,
it was just like a zoom-in photo
of like a party in like the Caribbean.
Like this dude, Arthur Hayes is up on stage dancing. He's's got glasses like it looked like almost like a daytime rave kind of
situation and it was freedom dance yes seeing the like arthur hayes uh pardon of all wrongdoing and
then like him just partying same day was uh was a funny uh combination it was nice it's a good
good clip um in other news japan's classified crypto as proper financial
product with insider trading rules uh that might not be very good for all the insider traders out
there um elon musk says government has no plans to integrate dogecoin i don't know which people
thought that dogecoin was going to get integrated into the government but he thought he needed to to clarify that. And Doge was down 4% on that news. Terraform Labs, who were behind
Terra Luna, announced online portable for investors to submit compensation claims for losses. That's
pretty interesting. A lot of people lost a lot of money there. I don't know what they intend to
recover, but in case you did, worth checking out. Wayfinder TGE by Parallel team announced it would be delayed by a week or two, people not liking this market for launches.
And then finally, Taproot Wizards down a further 20% to 0.16 Bitcoin floor.
As Legendry mentioned, they minted at 0.2. The public auction was much higher around 0.31.
I think it settled. So Minters, you know, a little bit down now on their public, sorry,
on their, their whitelisted mint price. That is the roundup. Got a few thoughts,
going to go in a few directions here, but want to throw it to you guys first. What's catching
your attention here? What's interesting you? Let's go to Legendary first. Yeah, I got a couple
of thoughts on the, on the, on bitcoin side of things but i'm going to
keep that for the main headline so instead i'm going to get into the wayfinder tge delay because
i think that will be that will be symptomatic for a few other tges that will be delayed as well
some of which tell me what you're thinking there then because i've got yeah i'm thinking similar things. What are your thoughts?
I'm thinking that it's to a certain degree.
Look, I always say it is annoying to see those TGEs getting delayed.
And to a certain degree, I can if you delay a TGE in this market conditions, it is a sign of weakness to a certain extent to do that.
Like, Godzilla guns is coming out today.
The market is shit.
Monday has been a horrible day.
And they are doing that.
And that is a sign of strength.
And obviously, they have insane action in the Binance launch pool.
We're going to get into that once we get to that headline.
So I'm not going to foreshadow too much from that.
But it's massive.
Maybe let's look at it in a positive framing.
It's a massive sign of strength if you don't delay a TGE in those market conditions. If you have to delay, it just doesn't look good.
I understand pressure from investors.
I understand pressure from market makers.
Ultimately, what it tells you is that you're trying to kind of game a moment
to have a good entry in the market.
And that either, to me, paints a picture of having less self-conviction
in your own stuff or having a bit more of a short-term orientation.
I know that's not always true.
I'm generalizing and talking in broader terms.
But that is the signaling that I see when I see this stuff getting delayed,
just wait for better market entries, especially if it's projects who have been like delaying,
delaying, oh, now too many TGs, now the market is too hot, now we have an AI meta, now the market
is too weak. That's just not a good sign in my opinion. Yeah, I was going to say, I think it's difficult to,
there's a psychology component to it too.
If you have a date that you can build up towards,
gain momentum specifically pointed at,
to regain that momentum is or can be tough.
And the message just gets really noisy.
We did that with Testnet, with MegaEath.
We had an initial date that we said, put out our date, people were excited about it, you know, we did that with testnet with mega ETH, right? Like we had a,
we had initial date that we said, put out our, our date, people were excited about it. And then like, Oh, we had to shift date because there were some technical complications and like,
whatever. So we shifted the date, which is, you know, fine in the grand scheme of things,
but then you notice, or I would notice resonating comments from people a week later, two weeks
later, they were just like, Oh, I had this date in mind. Then it wasn't the actual date. And now it is the date. And it's like, I, it's like, I kind of just lost,
lost vision of the path. And then I no longer paid attention. So like, I think there's just
like a psychological component to it on top of the, like the, what legendary is pointing out,
or just like, you know, bullish that they're, they're pushing through this stuff. Like if you
can command attention in a down market like it is now,
there's not a lot of things flying around.
You'll get all of the less attention focused on you.
Yeah, I think that's fair.
I can see Funky and Oxy with their handraise as well.
I'm gonna come to you in a moment.
I've just got this to say on it.
I think this is the real challenge here.
I think people are really playing with fire
to the extent that it looks.
Your TGE I know is super important and you want it to go well but the reason why it's so
precarious in this specific market is you know if you're if you're playing probabilities and you're
trying to assign proportion trying to assign a percentage for how likely you think markets are
going to be better and when they're going to be better. Like, what is it for
30 days time? Like you're one month closer to the summer. Like the market is absolutely driven by
macro at the moment. In what way are we in any way control or any crypto founder in control of
those things? Like I think of as a founder, one of the things I'm thinking about all the time is
only focus on the things that I have control of and the things that I don't have control of. I really like, what am I supposed to do?
And I feel like it's challenging at the moment because everyone is so helpless to what Trump
and the administration are doing. And that is what the whole world is trying to react to to be fair it's
not just crypto founders right like every major business you know you've got car manufacturers
getting hit with these humongous things being like right do we need to move our whole factory
to america in order to avoid these tariffs like they're trying to make long-term plans based on
these noises that are coming out of the states and so everyone is trying to react
to it but if your if your roadmap was to or you owe investors and you owe the community an airdrop
or a drop like pretty soon i can't see how your percentage of it being better in 30 days would be
markedly better based on the way things are going at the
moment so i feel like a delay now is leaning into what legendary said it's like it's not great
because if it's still not great in 30 days which is not very long 30 days is not that far away
if it's still not great then why why would why would you then drop it? Then you're going to delay
again? Cause the same thing will the same, you know, we're kind of in no different place than
we were 30 days ago. We were hovering in this range for Bitcoin, 82, 90, 82, 90, like 30 days
ago, probably as well. So does that mean in another 30 days, it's going to be the same?
Are we magically going to be much higher? Like i'm just not assigning a humongous proportion
that everything like there's such a hugely rosy outlook in that period of time so i think it's a
challenging scenario for people and you know i think if you if you go to drop it you're gonna
and maybe i think that's why the guns thing is going to be interesting to see which we'll talk
about a little bit later because you know it hyped game. People are quite positive about it.
Very curious to see how it does in this particular market.
Any reflections on that, boys, before we go to Funky first, then Oxy?
Funky, welcome to the stage, my man.
What are your thoughts?
Getting pretty...
Having some strong views there.
What's your take on the launches the delays
and all these things coming to market jam fam no just a couple things this i know only because of
having to work with the bob team closely a lot of times these delays are actually on the exchange
end so some teams are fully prepared to do the t, but then the exchange is the one staving them off for whatever reason.
And they also...
Yeah, but why do you think they're doing it as well, Funk?
It could be, yes, it could go right along with what you're saying, that maybe the exchange themselves are looking for better market additions.
But I'm just pointing out that for some teams, these things are beyond their control.
And they also play this kind of game where they try and leverage to get the
best tiered exchange listings.
Like,
Hey,
by the way,
X exchange is going to do it.
You know,
RTGE.
Why wouldn't you want to do it as well to get Y exchange on board?
Because as you can imagine,
they want to get the best exchanges and the exchanges themselves charge tons of money for these listings. So they
often play, you know, kind of leverage one another's names off each other to try and move up
and get the exchange listing for as little cost as possible or possibly free. So, but yes, the
point that you guys made all still stand. It's's just i wanted to at least share that in the conversation yeah i think i think that's definitely part of it um i think that that's part
of it whether you launch yesterday next week in two months time like you're always trying to get
uh the very best exchange uh the exchange action but you know increasingly i'm seeing people
opt out of it as well um i think there are certain teams that are opting out of it because the amount that people are asking for has got too much. So I appreciate the contribution
funk, something to keep in mind, I guess. Oxy, your hand is raised. Welcome to the stage,
my friend. What are your thoughts here on these delays, the general market conditions,
and anything else? Yeah, thank you. So I guess this for Wayfinder, I actually think they're delaying because of the increased momentum that they've had over the last 10, 20 days. So to put it in perspective, 10 days ago, they had 16,000 wallets that have cashed Prime, which if you don't know, they caching Prime then leads to like higher allocation for prompt.
higher allocation for prompt. So over the last 10 days, they've gone from 16,000 wallets to 26,000
wallets. And then even since the announcement, they've added another 1,000 or 1,500 wallets to
the cash prime amount. So I'm sure there might be other underlying issues like sexes or whatever
it might be. But I do think that they see this they have this huge wave of attention they have these like a lot of new wallets coming in cashing their prime
trying to get in on this allocation and they're like you know what i could see this kind of
continuing to go forward which i guess in reality it has more people are cashing prompt more wallets
are anyway so i don't know i kind of see them and it seems like i guess speaking to brett's
comment about losing momentum i can definitely see them and it seems like i guess speaking to brett's uh comment
about losing momentum i can definitely see where that happens a lot of the time but i mean based
on the wallets that are that have happened over the weekend it seems like they're only gaining
momentum more so so i don't know it's an interesting i mean it might be strategic where
they're like we have this wave let's kind of ride out a little bit longer and then once we start seeing it fade out then we then we pge but i don't know it's really interesting
interesting take you're not catching me with that one though oxy got too much too much momentum
too much positive news let's just delay it you're not catching me with that one
uh in the same way when i had my primes like you're not catching me with staking
when you're going to try and drop another token later it's like a i think um when the when the
staking thing was announced prime was i can't remember where it was but you know it's obviously
dipped significantly because there's this value transfer that happens like if you're going to
have two tokens the value that exists in one ends up getting averaged out between the two and someone
tokens, the value that exists in one ends up getting averaged out between the two. And someone,
I think it was Blocks in my comments on the Taproot Wizards tweet earlier today,
it's kind of going all over the place to illustrate a particular point, but he shared
this image where I think QuantumCats were trading, let me find it, where are we? I cannot find it now. That's frustrating. So I think my point is that
when you have one token and then suddenly there's news of a second one, the value which the first
one goes up to and then the second one coming out ends up getting averaged out between the two.
So quantum caps were trading at like 0.2 something Bitcoin for a long period of time. Remember like every other ordinal had dropped down in price
and then quantum cats stayed at that price. Now quantum cats are down to 0.05.
What is Wizards trading at? Like 0.16 or 0.17. So like the value that exists in the ecosystem has
got averaged out between the two. And I think something similar happened with, or something similar is in the process of
happening with prime and prompt.
I think people are super bullish prompt and for lots and lots of good reasons.
I think they are a good team.
They're doing cool stuff.
Everyone who's using that way find a product is finding it to be, I think, quite strong.
So I think that is interesting.
But yeah, I don't know i think it's definitely a trend that we're noticing because you know wayfinder not the only people
who are wanting to delay right now so certainly not something personal against them i think it's
just a challenging market and i think people are are you know having to react accordingly
um appreciate the take any any final ones boys, before we get into the headlines?
Take us into it then, Laj. Absolutely. Happy to get into it. We're not as happy because the news
is not so positive because Trump is ready to start a global trade war in two days. April 2nd
is coming, which Trump is dubbing the Liberation Day.
And basically, sum it up, tariffs will, that's a quote,
start with all countries.
There's a bit more detail in that NBC News article
I'm currently sharing on screen.
But basically, President Donald Trump said on Sunday
that reciprocal tariffs he is set to announce this week
will include all nations,
not just a smaller group of 10 to 15 countries with the biggest trade imbalances, which seem to have been the initial or the corrected thinking.
And we reported on that last week.
We said the market got more used to tariffs, got used that it's not an all-out tariff or
trade war that is coming.
But definitely Trump's rhetoric on that has gotten more
aggressive over the weekend which is something that or even leading into the end of last week
which is something that the stock markets did not like at all um s p 500 is down we reported that
asian stock markets were down as well as a result of that obviously has had a massive impact on crypto prices as well you
reported at the start of the show everything has been sliding lower btc went as low as 81.5k
eth even went under 1.8k however on the other side of things gold is still going up so that's
that's that then on friday we also have said that we were waiting for core
inflation data to come out of the US, we do have that PC data now, and it's a bit higher than
expected. So core inflation in February hits 2.8% spending increases 0.4%. We expected that to come
out a bit lower 2.04 2.7 for the inflation rate. Again, that is higher, that is a bit lower, 2.0 for 2.7 for the inflation rate.
Again, that is higher.
That is a bit concerning and 0.3 for the spending increases.
So both numbers didn't come out as positively as we expected them to come out, which certainly
also had an impact on the market.
Now, if we take a final look at Polymarket to see what the impact of this is, and we can see it pretty, pretty strongly here that when March was March 11, so at the start of March two weeks ago, markets were thinking there is a good chance 52% that we're going to see a rate, a decrease in rates
25 pips in May, when it's time for the Fed to look at that decision again. And basically,
now we are 82% certain that we are not going to see a change so that this first decrease,
the first rate cut of 25 pips is now moving more towards June. But even in June,
it's not a very certain outlook. It's a 58% chance that is in the market with $2 million
of volume, that there's going to be a rate cut. And finally, another polymarket stat that I like
to look into is the US recession fear, more so to get another fear indicator because obviously we have the fear
and greed index which also is now sliding more towards the fear set and i like this poll specifically
not because i think that is necessarily the best representation of will there be a recession or not
but just to get another fear indicator and we kind of said it that um we had reached levels above 40
percent the 44 chance mid-march the situation has started to look better,
went as low as 32 cents,
so a 32% chance of an inflation, of a recession to hit the US.
But recently, over the last couple of days,
this chance is up massively, up 19% to 38%.
So we are nearing, quote-unquote,
all-time highs for recession fears on polymarket as well.
So to sum it up, we went from having a bit more certainty with tariffs
to now fearing that Liberation Day, April 2nd,
will bring the start of an all-out tariff war.
And on top of that, inflation data looked a bit worse than we expected,
which ultimately led to both some pressure on the
stock markets as well as crypto prices plummeting. And on top of that, we had a few other
rumblings from Trump, which were around Russia and Putin, like explicitly coming out being
annoyed and saying that, no, I'm actually annoyed you know for a lot
of times he's kind of either accused of being too friendly with him or presenting himself as being
friendly with him so as a good thing because they're you know suggesting that he might be
able to figure things out I think for the first time he's been quite outwardly and publicly
negative in that situation so there's that escalation i think or at least a verbal
escalation you also had the thing i don't know the validity of this but third term the third term
headline where he's kind of suggesting that you know i think in the states you are literally only
allowed to be president for two terms and he started suggesting that maybe there's a way around and if you you know
things can be done to to um to get a third term which is incredibly disruptive for people's
perception of the state of the states i think if you're literally going to throw out the complete
rule book um and the way he talked about that was I feel like maybe that came across
as concerning because he basically said there's
like three ways obviously way one is you know
you need to change the constitution
and you would also need the approval of
75% of the states to
change the law and allow for more than
two terms way two would be
vice president in
the next run and then step up for whatever reason
and take over as a president.
And then exactly what you have said.
And there's also another way which he did not comment on what that way would be.
That sounded ominous.
Yeah, ominous.
Let's phrase it like that.
I also see Funky with his hand up on that.
I'm quite curious to hear from him as our political correspondent.
Bring it in, Funky.
Real quick.
So my wife, right after Trump got elected again,
she said he is going to be the president for the rest of our lives.
He's left it at that.
So he's going to become sort of like,
you know, autocratic dictator or something like that.
I have no idea.
But it's interesting because until you guys mentioned it,
I was literally making her sandwich.
I was like, what?
In my head, I'm like, he literally said this like that he wants to run for a third term so this is
all news to me so you guys are breaking the news for me but uh i'm not surprised at all yeah i mean
definitely go google it it sounds like legendary had heard some of the more details i just kind of
seen the quick headline and clicked into it quickly definitely don't just keep an eye on like
this kind of rhetoric look you know i think
a lot of times out of 10 people used to come used to say these things and people be like oh he's just
he's just talking don't worry don't mind him he'll like he'll flip soon because he you know cares
about markets and whatever but um you know some of this rhetoric is definitely not slowing down and it's kind of um except not accelerating but the the the every additional
new piece of rhetoric seems to be more extreme in some way and so okay fine you're doing the
tariffs that's like i guess part of your economic mandate maybe you probably argue that that's the
case but like throwing away the constitution and just doing something that has never been done
before trying to find a creative way around a rule which is in place for a very particular reason is something far beyond
what people are expecting now and it's definitely not going to help the markets in terms of
thinking that we're in a stable situation so I think that's you know I just wanted to add that
on top of your your story there led bread uh curious for your thoughts yeah it's all like this is him this is this is what we've come to understand no like
even though like this happened last time dude didn't like he's always he's always just like
yeah i could i could probably get around it i could probably do it like when it comes to different
like terms and last time did we believe it?
Did anyone believe it?
Or do you think it's still a bluff?
The difference is last time,
he explicitly said it is a joke.
He added that part.
And also then Republican party members were saying,
yeah, he's just trolling, he's just joking.
But this time, if you quote from that interview,
it was exactly what I described with the scenario
that NBC News presented.
Vance is winning the next election.
Trump is his running mate.
And then he, for whatever reason,
steps up to be president again.
And then he said, Trump said, quote unquote,
that's one method, but there are others too.
And then he was asked to share that other method,
and he simply said no.
I think the most dangerous part of it is my response.
They flood the zone so hard with so much ridiculous stuff
that he can say things like that.
I'm just like, man, it's kind of just what he does.
It's week 27 of the year and this is the 27th time i've had to deal with dealing with something
that that trump has said that is like outside the bounds of normal and it's just like whatever
the problem is i get i get like a little asleep with a lot of it because like i just like i don't
want to be bothered and eventually he's going to move on something and at that point i'm like oh fuck he was he was serious
and like that's that's when it gets dangerous yeah i think i think some of this stuff from a
yeah i mean you never know how much to dwell on it when as people who are reporting on the stuff
because look a we're just playing a guessing game we've said this before when the president's market
in the
sense that everything everything is being driven by the decisions that they take at the moment
whatever tweets that they're putting out is like incredibly powerful um but also you just don't
know the veracity um and there's some as you said the volume of stuff that's coming out it's hard to
place the the appropriate weight on each piece of
news when someone is known for being very hyperbolic and over the top all the time anyway so
look we're just sharing the variety of ways that things seem to be challenging at the moment uh
legendary maybe a final thoughts put a bow on this before we move into the next one
again we're playing a bit of a guessing game here but
where do you see this shake out like pre-summer like is there any do you have any indication
of anything here like what's the what's the read i've seen a lot of people's takes and a lot of
people's just kind of up in arms at the moment on the on the third term stuff really on the tariff
stuff however
I don't
at least I don't hope and I also
partially don't think that he
wants to focus his
second presidency entirely
on being on this like all out tariff war
so I do hope that this
situation will improve
leading into
the summer but it's very
very hard to predict what will happen
because he's been going back and forth
on that so much and I feel like
if he's now shifting to
the rhetoric of going
on a trade war against
all nations then it's easier for
well every other country in the world to
kind of get together and be a bit more unified in their response. Because if he's singling out targets,
like if he's singled out Canada, what can Canada do realistically? Nothing. Same with the EU,
they can't do anything against that. But if he's not going against everyone,
then that power momentum or the power pendulum might shift a bit.
then that power momentum or the power pendulum might shift a bit.
The one thing I'd say is A, we don't know, but B, there's too many people now. The consensus thing
seems to be like, look, it's going to be difficult. Summer, this is a write-off for now.
This is what I'm noticing. It's like everyone knew, or at least we spoke about on the show,
look, inauguration is going to be this big moment, probably sell. It's like everyone knew, or at least we spoke about on the show, like, look,
inauguration is going to be this big moment,
probably sell that.
But if you remember,
as we got towards inauguration,
a lot of people started to say,
give me a little bit more.
Give me a little bit more.
Like,
just want to,
everyone wants to push out the thing
one more quarter.
Everyone always just wants one more quarter.
And I think what's happening now
is people can see that this is bad, but they want it to better so they're just like okay well summer's a write-off
just give me one just one extra quarter you know q3 q4 things are going to pick up things are going
to pick up like that's how it's going to be um things will improve in just a few months and
I don't know guys I don't know then just i'm just putting a question mark
there because i think too many people are well a depending on the the this tariff stuff if any of
it goes through there's like really long-term consequences of this stuff if the point of some
of the tariffs is to onshore companies, like, no, stop producing
all of your stuff over in that country, bring all of that stuff into the States so that
you don't have to pay the tariffs.
That's like a multi-decade corporate plan that people need to figure out and plan for
and try to implement.
And the confusing thing for me that I don't know how to evaluate yet, but this is just
going to explain my thinking. I don't know how people would be able to do that in confidence
when this is probably such a contentious plan that if the Republicans were not to win again
the next time, what would be to stop the next organization from reversing it? And in that case,
what is the point of any companies implementing
the plan now if they think that there's a reasonable portion a reasonable percentage
chance that it's going to get reversed later on so you might just like eat shit for three and a
half years assuming that it's going to go bad and they're going to have to revoke it at some point.
But that's just part of my thinking here.
Any final thoughts, Ledge, before we keep moving?
Yeah, very much agree with that.
I think it's exactly what you have been doing right now, right?
Thinking of how it could go, what could it mean for the next party stepping in?
Are we looking for having another quarter after the inauguration now we're looking to postpone the action into fall like
it seems that this uncertainty is like really the dominating narrative right now and you're like
still trying to find the positive things into that like I remember that a couple of weeks ago,
this was all a master plan to get JPOW to bend the knee
to get rates down.
Now the stock markets, while they're basically
a very objective commentator of what is happening,
just stop liking that and stop thinking that this is what
is going on because we've been going down for quite a while.
And I do think that it's exactly this uncertainty that's dominating
and nobody really knows what to make of what statement
and which of that to take seriously and which not.
Ultimately, as we just said, you have a president flirting with a third term
and nobody's really able to say, is he joking?
Is he serious about that?
And that basically goes for all the other things as well.
And it's hard to operate in those conditions with stability as a financial market.
Okay, I think that's fine.
I think that's a perfect final sentence on that point.
Very, very difficult to operate with stability in the financial market when this kind of activity is taking place.
place let's keep it moving that's enough on the political side for today uh bread talk to us
Let's keep it moving.
That's enough on the political side for today.
about the eth btc ratio which is hitting a bit of a milestone point but not specifically for a good
reason yeah do we want to gross um i mean i will because my lord and savior b check put it on the
thing look guys i it brings me not much joy to say this but the
headline is eth btc ratio hits same low five years ago i don't know if you guys are aware of that i
wasn't until i logged on this morning but we are we're here um so we have three little posts we
can look at for talking about this first one here we have mike dudas he's showing a chart of the
ratio with on the five-year time horizon. And you can see significant progress was made and
has since evaporated over that time span going from 0.02 to up to 0.08. So, you know, 4Xing and
then back down again. So we're back down to it. That's cool. Then you have a, we'll go over to
Ansem. Ansem had another post on it. And he was just saying, uh, last time ETH BTC was this low, uh, was ETH was trading under a hundred dollars just
to give you a perspective of time and like, you know, just like relative dollar figures, like
a hundred dollars, like everyone over the last four or five years has said like, man, if I could
have ETH at the $77, if I could have ETH at the $100, we're in the Vibes space of that same dollar
figure. And you can see that by going to our third post, which is showing from Cointelegraph,
the quarter returns for Ethereum. And the last time that we were down in this Vibes space,
it's back in 2018 with a Q1 return of negative, was it negative 46 then?
It's negative 42% today.
Not awesome, as you can see.
And then, you know, I saw that and I was like, yeah, but like it probably went up after that.
And then you look and like, ah, had a positive quarter, single double percentages, and then
hammered, hammered again two following quarters.
Like that's a lot of red in the future.
If we're just going to do like a history doesn't repeat, but it rhymes situation. So buckle
up buckaroos, because if you are looking to the past to, to guess what the future is based purely
on this, right? We're not talking about fundamentals. We're not talking about a new
paradigm. A lot of stuff has changed since then, right? We have infinity other chains. We had like
ETF as a thing. one of only two that are
approved right now we have a favorable macro conditions outside of trump being insane right
like there's like there are things to look forward to uh but questions still remain and uh just
purely looking back over the last quarter uh it's been a rough market market for you if you are an ETH holder.
Yes, that is true. That's one of the tweets I wrote over the weekend. The biggest mistake I've spoken about on the show before, the biggest mistake I made the cycle, despite being able
to make profitable trades outside of ETH, if the core holding is not going up, then you're kind of
missing out on a lot of the gains. That's like one of my core reflections. Everything outside of Bitcoin is tech and we're investing in tech and sometimes tech is good. And then
sometimes other tech is either providing it very, very stiff competition or coming right up
behind it in order to try to compete with it. And whatever tech you have has to continue to
be able to compete. As Kusho says if if anything's going bad in your life
right now it does sound like what he said if btc is down bad and probably the source of my life
problems right now why not i think a lot of these holders might be feeling similar one final
statistic on that which is really horrible when you hear it out loud, but that's going to send a shiver down your spine. One Bitcoin is 44.5 ETH.
That means nothing to me.
Like that, I don't do that.
I don't do trading.
I don't do ratios and stuff.
So like, you know,
I hear these things.
But neither do I.
I don't do the ratio that much either.
But just the number 44.5,
like that is the highest it's ever.
Well, you know, I spent for five years but for me
eth is higher our btc is higher so it's always just been like a big number that's just like me i've never really tried to contextualize it for me i think the thing that's worth
the thing that's worth like um maybe observing here is that i like the eth price action has that been awesome and it's frustrating
because there has been so much useful stuff that has been built atop and connect with like arms
reach away from ethereum right like kaido kaido just people got six fig airdrops uh from from that
which is you know it's the token exists on base right which is apparently ethereum so like there's
a lot of consternation
because like you're you're really close to stuff that like like have pockets of green shoots that
is valuable uh it's just not all translating to direct value accrual to ethereum which is
frustrating because you know the thought was you know traditionally just like oh that's just an
index on all of the apps being built on top of the thing and if you view like l2s and the things on top of the l2s as like the thing that is built on top of ethereum
then you're like i should be getting some of that but you're not you're not getting all that uh and
that's frustrating frustrating is one way to describe it. I agree. I can concur with that. But look, the plight of ETH is not something we can get into.
We try to get into it routinely.
We have been getting into it routinely, but we can't do it more today.
We've only got a few minutes left in the show,
and I do think it's worth getting into this GUNS token buy off the grid.
Big, big anticipated game.
Well, the game's already out.
People are playing it.
People actually like it.
It's actually a good game. People seem to enjoying it it's on a box but the token itself i think is
launching today legendary what do we need to know here what are we looking out for what's exciting
about it what do we need to know yeah absolutely it's a very very exciting tge today we don't have
the time to get into all of the tokenomics and details. I'm just going to keep
it with the key facts. Long vesting, very minimal unlocks on day one, basically just the community
incentives plus the Binance launch pool drops, no unlocks for a month, five-month gap before the
next release. Also, founders and team have a 12.8% allocation, Guns Foundation 9% advisors, 5.3 or 5.29.
So not the highest of figures.
The interesting thing here is that we're not talking about a, quote-unquote,
like simple in-game token.
It's actually an L1 that is being built that is there to cover all gas fees
and the Guns ecosystem, pay for skins, upgrades, subscriptions, battle pass,
purchases on the
guns P2P marketplace.
This thread goes on to make a comparison basically how this is different from Fortnite, Warzone,
PUBG, Apex Legends, etc, etc.
Basically saying everything is tradable, everything is decentralized, player owned and lives on
lives on the blockchain. Going into the launch pool on BNB, we can see that 4% of the total
the blockchain.
token supply is going to the launch pool and initial circulating supply when listed on
Binance is going to be 6.05% of the total supply. The impressive fact and figure there is that by March 2025,
GANs hit 14.5 million wallets,
480 million plus transactions.
Obviously, massive numbers for Web3.
But what I find the most impressive number,
which I always like to look at,
is if there's a Binance launch pool,
obviously, to see how much money is staked
in anticipation of the TGE.
And that number is absolutely crazy for guns.
It is $15.8 billion by 1.6 million participants.
So very, very excited market.
Is that like a country's GDP staking for the guns token?
Say that again?
Is that like some country in the world's GDP staking against the guns token. Say that again. Is that like some country in the world's GDP
staking against the guns token?
Probably, yeah.
If you look at some very small,
not successful state.
Maybe they'd be more successful
if they were staking for the guns token.
Okay, look, interesting stuff.
We will see how that goes later today then and we'll report on
it tomorrow as you said like this is one that has a bit of energy behind it and in this particular
market where things are more challenging do you think they're careening for the same same outcome
that ethereum has i like we're talking like oh guns is so great for AVAX. Oh, it's building, oh, it's own L1.
Oh, it's its own token.
Oh, it's its own thing in its own little pocket.
I think there's going to be some frustration on the horizon.
Too much excitement, if you ask me.
It's a great game, right?
They raised 100 mil in six rounds, but like 16 billion staked.
And I mean, it's one of the first playable, arguably,
AAA games that's coming out of that,
but it's not like if you just compare it to a traditional game,
it's not a multi,
multi,
multi billion dollar token.
It shouldn't be.
I get it.
They're building the ecosystem of building and along.
They're not the only ones to do that.
I'm not trying to talk that down by any means,
but in this market market seeing so much excitement
i don't know how well this will do in a couple of months to be honest
i guess yeah okay so look on the one hand there's the gaming aspect but then on the other hand it's
like it is a l1 token um which i think probably adds a bit of premium to the price immediately um so we'll see
we'll see how that goes we will report on it as usual tomorrow we and hope you enjoyed the show
today we do this every single day monday to friday at 7 a.m eastern time for one hour live on x x
video youtube apple and spotify thank you to legendary and bread for co-hosting with me thank
you to funky and oxy for their contributions as always and thank you for joining us thank you for
commenting like crazy dancing on eth's grave and the youtube comments it might not always be
delightful but it's at least I get some enjoyment from the pain
there um thanks so much for being with us as always we'll be back again tomorrow take care
and goodbye
