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Crypto crash continues as Trump threatens more tariffs
Recorded: March 31, 2025 Duration: 0:55:17Space Recording
Short Summary
The crypto market is experiencing significant developments, including the launch of the Guns token by Off the Grid game on AVAX and the delay of the Wayfinder TGE by the Parallel team. The ETH/BTC ratio has reached a five-year low, indicating a decline in ETH's relative value. Additionally, Terraform Labs has introduced an online portal for compensation claims, reflecting ongoing project launches. Current trends show a cautious approach to token launches, with delays in anticipation of better market conditions.
Full Transcription
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to the modern market where every day we discuss everything
to do with the modern market. That is the crypto market, the NFT market, and the down
only Trump administration decisions, which leads to some despicable price action. We
will be talking about that and more as usual loaded up session today. We've got Bitcoin
tumbling towards 81Kk we're going to be
talking a little bit about the aggressive tariff rhetoric and everything else that's kind of
wrapped up in some of the negative price action at the moment not only in crypto but across the
board we're talking about the ETH BTC ratio hitting the same low from five years ago got
some horrible stats to go through there but we will summon up the strength to do that and we're
going to be talking about guns the token by off the grid game on avax which is going to launch
today a lot of excitement there so hopefully that'll be a pocket of energy and excitement
which should fingers crossed be good but we'll discuss it in a bit we also got the latest on
price action on crypto and nfts plus a general
set of thoughts on the market rotations in just a little bit we've got legendary and bread guy
in the co-host seats with me we're ready to get into it just a reminder friends that nothing
that we do say think or anything else uh is financial advice on this show this market is
very risky and we don't know anything for sure so please proceed with caution and exercise your own judgment at all times with that out of the way it's monday
it's the 31st of march
brad how you doing damn the suspense and who you're gonna call out i'm sitting there typing
up like though you might not have been concentrating yeah i know that's see i rope-a-doped you i tricked you into thinking i wasn't paying attention
and therefore i was ready thinking i wasn't ready okay um yeah things are good things are
great i'll buy that in mind next time yeah weather's starting to turn up a little bit
did a little little shopping and shit. Not just outside stuff.
I spent most of yesterday vibe coding.
I was telling you guys before the show.
I was partially telling.
Everyone in the crowd should know that we've reached the point where we stopped telling each other what we actually do before the show
because you probably wouldn't hear it for the first time on the show.
And then here it is.
And also, it's like, look, it's only you two here.
The value of the story is so huge.
Who are these guys?
Hundreds of people should hear it.
Yeah.
I have big arms X5999 in the crowd.
He deserves to hear it more than B-Check.
But yeah, I can't get a story out of these guys unless we're live anymore.
Life of a celebrity.
But no, all right. So I didn't tell you guys the full story uh and what it was is that i spent yesterday vibe coding uh
everyone knows i make a bunch of pretty pictures on the timeline most of that stuff is hand drawn
and excaliburton excaliburton doesn't have like a straight up import thing it's like i have to
actually like hand all these fucking things right like if Like if you see a piece of bread, it's because I made a piece of bread with a bunch of sticks.
Right.
So I started vibe coding and I was like, I want to be able to import this shit.
I want an image.
I just want to drop an image and it turns into a scale draw thing.
So I built the thing out.
All cool.
I even got, I was so impressed with myself.
I videotaped myself like going through the process.
Like look what I did guys.
This is cool. And in the process like look what I did guys this is cool
uh and in the process of doing that I found a tool that was already built that already did this and
was better than mine okay yeah so that is I mean it sounds like you now don't have to do the work
so that should be good but it sounds like I was done with the work um that's the that's the kicker
I was on the other end of it and I was like all right this is cool i recorded my video i went back to check some stuff i found a link uh and then i was like ah
fuck this works well and probably a little bit better than mine didn't exist and yours was better
yes that is accurate so even though there's some is something exist which is more helpful to you you wish it didn't
exist yes uh for the to the detriment of everyone around me because theirs was publicly accessible
right mine was only a mic my thing um yeah so now i'm gonna pass along to friends so uh that's a
that's the helpful thing that i'm coming away with interesting good stuff so okay that's uh Interesting. Good stuff. So, okay. That's nice.
Spending a little time coding.
Yeah, I will say, I'm in transition right now.
Everyone's in transition at the moment, Brad.
Going from Claude to ChatGPT.
I have premiums on both.
Okay, that's an acceptable type of transition.
I was wondering where you were going there.
I'll put it, but yeah i'm transitioning from
cloud to chat gbt because like everyone was doing their stuff with studio ghibli and man
claude doesn't do this and the free version of chat gbt didn't do it um and i gotta say
claude's still way better at making if you guys are doing some technical stuff claude's way better
um it just is like it it actually takes in like things you wouldn't
anticipate for like, uh, UI UX stuff, right? If I give it the same prompt to two things, like,
Hey, spin up this little website so I can click this link on my local host to be able to do this.
Claude goes through the process of making it like all nice and like does these extra little,
little like niceties, quality of life improvements that like chat to bt just gives me
a fucking windows 95 box click the button do you think it's all brand do you think it's
it's because it's chat to bt is like just penetrated people's brains a bit more and
claude is claude like do we like claude started switching because someone started because you're
assessing it on the merit but no no because i i started switching because someone else that i respect is also very
technical was like he's like man claude hallucinates a lot which i think is actually true so
like it's very good on these like the technical tasks but like if i had said claude is the is the
earth flat he'll be like no bro that's dumb you're dumb now like i think you're wrong claude he's
like you're right i'm sorry i'm i shouldn't have done that. So like, I want a little resistance.
I want my AI overlords to have a personality
and a little oomph in their speech.
And Claude didn't have that.
Got it.
I see.
Okay.
Legendry, how's your AI overlords treating you?
You've been interacting quite a lot at the moment.
Any updates on your AI relationship? Are you transitioning at all at the moment?
Here's a story. We talked about creative writing, and I think it was on one of the shows with
Adam from Proof of Play when he said, nah, creative writing is not quite there yet.
And GPT 4.5, when it comes to creative writing, is insane.
Because both of you have mentioned the term AI overlord.
And when I had the post on the weekend on my timeline where I was asking,
what car would an ETH holder drive?
And it came up with this description, ETH holders don't bad, yada, yada, yada.
And I jokingly responded to chat GPT saying,
thank you, AI over lady.
I went for the female gendered version.
And GPT 4.5 went into the most
insane role-playing mode,
started to call me a degenerate
little wallet warrior
and went on like that.
And it was so suggestive
in all of its answers without crossing the line.
Like it talked about, you know, draining your wallet.
It started to call itself AI mommy, which was insane to see like how finally it managed to walk that line without like being explicitly sexual.
And basically having to have the moderating algorithm coming in and basically censoring off the conversations.
That was insane to see how it got into this mode.
And also what I realized with GPT 4.5 is that it now has a different tone
depending on the stuff that you talk, that you're talking about.
So this was the general wallet conversation, basically.
Then I told Jim, like, looking into getting a car,
so i asked
about a couple cars and stuff that i wanted to know and then it goes like oh bro yeah that's a
dope ride yada yada yada and then when i talk about like my supplements it talks very you know
educational very like nerdy it's really matching your style from conversation to conversation which
is utterly insane because like I'm sitting there again
and I'm laughing when I'm reading those things.
So I have an emotional reaction to that,
which is very impressive to see.
As concerns the coding,
Brett, have you ever tried Bolt.new?
I haven't.
You should.
Take your prompt to Bolt.new.
It's super good basically at...
B-O-L-T?
B-O-L-T.new, yeah.
So it's basically super good at scaffolding,
building an app.
It can also like...
It's connected to Suburbase.
It can host your app.
Have you used Lovable?
Yeah.
Okay.
I'm going to try it.
Try Bolt.new.
You will probably be pretty impressed by it.
It's pretty, pretty cool.
You can also, by the way, upload a Figma now to Bolt
and be like, yo, take this Figma
and turn it into the app that I want to put in.
There's a wireframe.
Nice.
Nice.
It's really good.
The superpowers, when you move all of these together,
once you identify these AIs that are tuned
to these very specific tasks,
and then you're like, all right need vectorize to vectorize my thing i need bolt new to actually
take this vector and put it into like a front-end ui that actually actually can like let me just
upload it instead of actually having a call buffing on the back end um it gets pricey with api calls
though yeah i kind of realized that i'm already spending like 1.5k a month for AI subscriptions.
So I definitely need to do a bit of a...
How much of that is Kaido?
Kaido, I actually have canceled.
So Kaido is not a part of that equation anymore.
Kaido have canceled.
You shouldn't have said that on this basis because it hears you and it's going to nerf you.
Kaido's second season adjobs is...
In case you're listening kaito
i haven't got the subscription but i'm open to it because i would like i love kaito i'm having a
back and forth with you right now and i had a post last night that everyone's kind of poking at
because of someone gaming it and i'm helping you kaito help me help you we are all very pro kaito, help me help you. We are all very pro-Kaito.
In spite of what Legendary says.
Good stuff, right?
Look, we need to get into the headlines.
Can't just talk AI all day,
although maybe it will make another appearance again.
Let's get into the price action as usual
to get you up to speed with everything
that is going on in the market, starting with the majors.
Unfortunately, we don't have a huge amount of good news
when it comes to the price action. We've got Bitcoin down a percent to 82, but that's down 6% on the week.
Ether's down almost 2% to 1.7 when I looked at it earlier. It's at 1.8 now, which I don't know,
still not that great. XRP down 5% to $2, almost 10 cents. BNB is is at 594 dollars solana is down a percent to 124 so
not so big moves down the last 24 hours but you know bigger moves down over the last week
on the meme coin side of things let's see we've got doge down four percent to 16 cents that is
all the gains um a lot of the gains given up now from the you know the mania phase we've got pepe down a couple
of percent trump's down a percent bonkers down four percent whiff is down four bark coin is down
eight down 30 on the week spx down eight pengu down seven um a lot of red across the board i
would say ai16z is flat but look all of this stuff is pretty red today. All things considered,
MOG's down 5% as well. Getting into the main headlines themselves, we've got Bitcoin tumbling
towards 81K. Legendary's going to break down a little bit the tariff stuff that's going on and
any other factors. Feels like there's a swirling set of factors now, which is kind of acting as a
dark cloud over not just the crypto market, all the markets in general looking forward to legendary explaining his thoughts there i'll have some too the eth
bitcoin ratio in other news is hitting the same low from five years ago if you're looking on screen
this chart is not nice um to be fair it's the same chart that a lot of charts are looking looks like
the test of the chart recently which was just completely up uh during the towards the Trump inauguration and then just given up all the gains
and that's kind of what ETH has done over the last uh four to five year period although obviously
Tesla is on a shorter time frame um and then finally uh the highly anticipated guns token by
off the grid game on AVAX is launching today. That's something
that people are excited about. It's on the Binance launch pool as well. So watching that closely to
see how that goes, not only for seeing how Web3 gaming is going, but also from the perspective of
just seeing how new token launches are going in this market. I know a lot of tokens are still to
launch. We'll discuss that in a second in more detail. On the NFT side, Legendary, is there anything that we need to know about? I know ETH is sliding in
price. So how are the NFTs holding up? Yeah, very good question. Board Apes are doing pretty well.
They are holding well above the 14 ETH floor, sitting at 14.4 ETH, still up 7% over the week,
up 2% over the last 24 hours. The rest of the majors don't look that good.
Pudgies have fallen under 10 ETH.
Other collections are down as well.
One exception or one other exception are the punks.
In ETH levels, in ETH terms, they are holding up extremely well.
Again, 42.6 ETH.
However, in USD terms, because ETH is down,
obviously that's quote-unquote only a 77k USD floor. And also quickly wanted to check in with the Taproot Wizards side of things. Volume wise, insane volume on that collection, more than 100 BTC 101.1 to be specific.
Floor price, however, has been trending down and is currently sitting at 0.168 BTC.
So sliding down under the mint price, at least for the people who are either there minting at 0.2 BTC or for the few who have minted in the public Dutch auction.
Excellent.
I've got some thoughts on that in a little bit as well because I put a tweet out there.
on that in a little bit as well because uh i put a tweet out there a lot of a lot of reaction people
love talking about nft mints especially when you get a chance to dunk on a founder that i think is
people's favorite pastime of all uh getting up you have to speak with everything else first though
bitcoin miner mara eyes two billion dollar stock offering to buy more bitcoin we had trump pardoning
arthur hayes and other bitmex founders uh they were that was one of the
old crypto exchanges japan to classify crypto as a dance video
that was funny that was funny it's funny that the news came out that he was getting pardoned
and then the dance video came out at the same time yeah for people who didn't see it it was
just like a zoom in photo of like it looked like a party in like the caribbean like this dude arthur hayes was up on stage dancing he's got glasses like it looked
like almost like a daytime rave kind of situation and it was just freedom dancing yes seeing the
like arthur hayes uh pardon of all wrongdoing and then like him just partying same day was uh was a
funny uh combination it was nice it's a good a good clip um in other news japan's classified
crypto as proper financial product with insider trading rules uh that might not be very good for
all the insider traders out there um elon musk says government has no plans to integrate dogecoin
i don't know which people thought that dogecoin was going to get integrated into the government, but he thought he needed to clarify that. And Doge was down 4% on that news.
Terraform Labs, who were behind Terra Luna, announced online portable for investors to
submit compensation claims for losses. That's pretty interesting. A lot of people lost a lot
of money there. I don't know what they intend to recover, but in case you did, worth checking out.
Wayfinder TGE by Parallel team announced it would be delayed by a week or two.
People not liking this market for launches.
And then finally, Taproot Wizards down a further 20% to 0.16 Bitcoin floor.
As Legendary mentioned, they minted at 0.2.
The public auction was much higher around 0.31.
much higher around 0.31. I think it settled. So Minters, you know, a little bit down now
I think it settled.
on their public, sorry, on their, their whitelisted mint price. That is the roundup.
Got a few thoughts. We're going to go in a few directions here, but I want to throw it to you
guys first. What's catching your attention here? What's interesting you? Let's go to Legendary
first. Yeah, I got a couple of thoughts on the Bitcoin side of things,
but I'm going to keep that for the main headline.
So instead, I'm going to get into the Wayfinder TGE delay
because I think that will be symptomatic for a few other TGEs
that will be delayed as well, some of which...
Tell me what you're thinking there then,
because I've got, yeah, I'm thinking similar things.
What are your thoughts?
I'm thinking that it's to a certain degree, look, I always say it is annoying to see those
TGEs getting delayed.
And to a certain degree, I can empathize with that but ultimately i think if you delay a tge in this market conditions it is a
it is a sign of weakness to a certain extent to do that like gonzilla guns is coming out today
the market is shit monday has been a horrible day and they are doing that and that is a sign
of strength and And obviously,
they have insane action in the Binance launch pool. I'm going to get into that once we get to
that headline. So I'm not going to foreshadow too much from that, but it's massive. Maybe let's look
at it in a positive framing. It's a massive sign of strength if you don't delay a TGE in those
market conditions. If you have to delay, it just doesn't look good. I understand pressure from investors. I understand pressure from market makers. Ultimately, what it tells you is that you're trying to kind of game a moment to have a good entry in the market. And that either to me paints a picture of having less self-conviction in your own stuff or having a bit more of a short-term orientation i know that's not always true i'm not like i'm generalizing and talking in broader terms but that is the signaling
that i see when i see this stuff getting delayed just wait for better market entries especially if
it's projects who have been like delaying delaying oh now too many tgs now the market is too hot now
we have an ai meta now the market is too weak That's just not a good sign, in my opinion.
Yeah, I think it's difficult to,
like there's a psychology component to it too, right? If you have a date that you can build up towards,
like gain momentum, like specifically pointed at,
to regain that momentum is or can be tough.
And the message just gets really noisy.
Like, you know, we did that with Testnet, with MegiEth right like we had a we had initial date that we said put out our our date people were
excited about it and then like oh we had to shift date because there were some technical complications
and like whatever so we shifted the date which is you know fine in the grand scheme of things but
then you notice or i would notice resonating comments from people a week later two weeks
later that were just like oh i had this
date in mind then it wasn't the actual date and now it is the date and it's like i it's like i
kind of just lost lost vision of the path and then i no longer paid attention so like i think there's
just like a psychological component to it on top of the like the what legendary is pointing out
we're just like you know bullish that they're they're pushing through this just like, you know, bullish that they're, they're pushing through this stuff. Like if you can command attention in a down market, like it is now, it's not a lot of
things flying around. Uh, you'll get all of the less attention focused on you.
Yeah. I think that's fair. I can see funky and oxy with their hand raise as well. I'm going to
come to you in a moment. I've just got this to say on it. I think this, this is the real challenge
here. I think people are really playing with fire
to the extent that, look, your TGE, I know,
is super important and you want it to go well.
But the reason why it's so precarious
in this specific market is, you know,
if you're playing probabilities
and you're trying to assign proportion,
trying to assign a percentage
for how likely you think markets are going to be better
and when they're going to be
better. Like, what is it for 30 days time? Like you're one month closer to the summer. Like the
market is absolutely driven by macro at the moment. In what way are we in any way control or any
crypto founder in control of those things? Like I think of as a founder, one of the things I'm
thinking about all the time is only
focus on the things that I have control of and the things that I don't have control of I really
like what am I supposed to do that and I feel like it's challenging at the moment because
everyone is so helpless to what Trump and the administration are doing. And that is what the whole world is trying to react to.
To be fair, it's not just crypto founders, right?
Like every major business, you know, you've got car manufacturers getting hit with these
humongous things being like, right, do we need to move our whole factory to America
in order to avoid these tariffs?
They're trying to make long-term plans based on these noises that are coming out of the
States.
And so everyone is trying to react uh to it but if your if your roadmap was to or you owe investors and you owe the community an airdrop or a drop like pretty soon i can't see
how your percentage of it being better in 30 days would be markedly better based on the
way things are going at the moment. So I feel like a delay now is leaning into what Legendary said.
It's like, it's not great because if it's still not great in 30 days, which is not very long,
30 days is not that far away. If it's still not great then why why would you
then drop it then you're gonna delay again because the same thing will the
same you know we're kind of in no different place than we were 30 days ago
we were hovering in this range for Bitcoin 82 90 82 90 like 30 days ago
probably as well so does that mean in another 30 days it's gonna be the same
are we magically gonna be much higher?
Like I'm just not assigning a humongous proportion that everything like this, such a hugely rosy
outlook in that period of time.
So I think it's a challenging scenario for people.
And, you know, I think if you, if you've got to drop it, you're going to, and maybe I think
that's why the guns thing is going to be interesting to see, which we'll talk about a little bit
later.
Cause you know, it's a hyped game.
People are quite positive about it.
Very curious to see how it does in this particular market.
Any reflections on that, boys, before we go to Funky first, then Oxy?
Funky, welcome to the stage, my man.
What are your thoughts?
Getting really...
Having some strong views there what what's your
take on the launches the delays and all these things coming to market jam fam no just a couple
things this i know only because of having to work with the bob team closely a lot of times these
delays are actually on the exchange end so some teams are fully prepared to do the tge but then the exchange
is the one staving them off for whatever reason and they also why do you think that why do you
think they're doing it as well funk it could be it could it could be yes it could go right along
with what you're saying that maybe the t maybe the the exchange themselves are looking for better
market additions but i'm just pointing out that for some teams, these things are beyond their control.
And they also play this kind of game where they try and leverage to get the best tiered exchange listings.
Like, oh, hey, by the way, X exchange is going to do RTGE.
G E. Why wouldn't you want to do it as well to get why exchange on board? Because as you can imagine,
Why wouldn't you want to do it as well to get Y exchange on board?
they want to get the best exchanges and the exchanges themselves charge tons of money for
these listings. So they often play, you know, kind of leverage one another's names off each other to
try and move up and get the exchange listing for as little cost as possible or possibly free. So,
but yes, the point that you guys made all still stand
it's just i wanted to at least share that in the conversation yeah i think i think that's definitely
part of it um i think that that's part of it whether you launch yesterday next week in two
months time like you're always trying to get uh the very best exchange uh the exchange action but
you know increasingly i'm seeing people opt out of it as well um i think there are certain teams that are opting out of it because the amount that people are asking for
has got too much so appreciate the contribution funk something to keep in mind i guess uh oxy
your hand is raised welcome to the stage my friend what are your thoughts here on these delays the
general market conditions and anything else yeah thank you. So I guess this is something for Wayfinder.
I actually think they're delaying because of the increased momentum that they've had
over the last 10, 20 days.
So to put it in perspective, 10 days ago, they had 16,000 wallets that have cashed Prime,
which if you don't know, the cashing Prime then leads to higher allocation for prompt.
So over the last 10 days, they've gone from 16,000 wallets to 26,000 wallets.
And then even since the announcement, they've added another 1,000 or 1,500 wallets to the cash Prime amount.
So I'm sure there might be other underlying issues like sex or whatever it might be.
But I do think that they see that this they have this huge wave of attention.
They have these like a lot of new wallets coming in, cashing their prime, trying to get in on this allocation.
And they're like, you know what, I could see this kind of continuing to go forward, which I guess in reality it has.
more people are cashing prompt, more wallets are anyway.
More people are cashing prompt, more wallets are anyway.
So I don't know. I kind of see them.
So I don't know, I kind of see them.
And it seems like, I guess,
speaking to Brett's comment about losing momentum,
I can definitely see where that happens a lot of the time.
But I mean, based on the wallets
that have happened over the weekend,
it seems like they're only gaining momentum more so.
So I don't know, it's an interesting,
I mean, it might be strategic where they're like,
we have this wave,
let's kind of ride it out a little bit longer. And once we start seeing it fade out then we then we pge but
i don't know it's really interesting interesting take you're not catching me with that one though
oxy got too much too much momentum too much positive news let's just delay it you're not
catching me with that one uh in the same way when i had my pr it. You're not catching me with that one. Uh, in the same way, when I had my primes, like you're not catching me with staking when you're going to try and
drop another token later. It's like a, I think, um, when the, when the staking thing was announced,
prime was, I can't remember where it was, but you know, it's obviously dipped significantly
because there's this value transfer that happens. Like if you're going to have two tokens,
the value that exists in one ends up getting averaged out between the two. And someone, I think it was blocks in my
comments on the Taproot Wizards tweet earlier today. It's kind of going all over the place
to illustrate a particular point, but he shared this image where I think quantum cats were trading.
Let me find it. Where are we we i cannot find it now that's frustrating
so i i i think my point is that when you have one token and then suddenly there's news of a second
one the value which the first one goes up to and then the second one coming out ends up getting
averaged out between the two so quantum cats were trading at like 0.2, something Bitcoin for a long period of time.
Remember like every other ordinal had dropped down in price.
The, and then quantum cats stayed at that price.
Now quantum cats are down to 0.05.
Um, what is, was it trading at like 0.16 or 0.17?
So like the value that exists in the ecosystem has got averaged out between the two.
And I think something similar happened with, or something similar is in the process of happening
with Prime and Prompt. I think people are super bullish Prompt and for lots and lots of good
reasons. I think they are a good team. They're doing cool stuff. Everyone who's using that
Wayfinder product is finding it to be, I think, quite strong. So I think that is interesting.
But yeah, I don't know. I think it's definitely a trend that we're noticing because, you know,
Wayfinder are not the only people who are wanting to delay right now. So it's certainly not something
personal against them. I think it's just a challenging market. And I think people are
having to react accordingly. Appreciate the take.
Any final ones there, boys, before we get into the headlines?
Take us into it then, Laj.
Absolutely.
Happy to get into it.
We're not as happy because the news is not so positive because Trump is ready to start a global trade war in two days.
April 2nd is coming, which Trump is dubbing the Liberation Day.
And basically, sum it up, tariffs will, that's a quote, start with all countries.
There's a bit more detail in that NBC News article I'm currently sharing on screen.
But basically, President Donald Trump said on Sunday that reciprocal tariffs he is set to announce this week will include all nations, not just a smaller group of 10 to 15 countries with the biggest trade imbalances, which seem to have been the initial or like the corrected thinking.
And we reported on that last week.
We said the market got more used to tariffs, got used that it's not an all out tariff or trade war that is coming.
to tariffs, got used that it's not an all-out tariff or trade war that is coming.
But definitely Trump's rhetoric on that has gotten more aggressive over the weekend, which
is something that, or even leading into the end of last week, which is something that
the stock markets did not like at all.
S&P 500 is down.
We reported that Asian stock markets were down as well as a result of that.
Obviously, it has had a massive stock markets were down as well as a result of that obviously has
had a massive impact on crypto prices as well. You reported at the start of the show, everything has
been sliding lower. BTC went as low as 81.5k. ETH even went under 1.8k. However, on the other side
of things, gold is still going up. So that's that's that. Then on Friday, we also have
said that we are waiting for core inflation data to come out of the US, we do have that
PC data now, and it's a bit higher than expected. So core inflation in February hits 2.8% spending
increases 0.4%. We expected that to come out a bit lower 2.0 for 2.7 for the inflation rate. Again, that is
higher, that is a bit concerning. And 0.3 for the spending increases. So both numbers
didn't come out as positively as we expected them to come out, which certainly also had an impact
on the market. Now, if we take a final look at Polymarket
to see what the impact of this is,
and we can see it pretty, pretty strongly here
that when March was March 11th,
so at the start of March two weeks ago,
markets were thinking there is a good chance,
52% that we're going to see a decrease
in rates 25 bps in May when it's time for the Fed to look at that decision again.
And basically, now we are 82% certain that we are not going to see a change so that the first
decrease, the first rate cut of 25 bps is now
moving more towards June but even in June it's not a very certain outlook it's a 58% chance that
is in the market with two million dollars of volume that is going to be a rate cut and finally
another polymarket stat that I like to look into is the US recession fear, more so to get another fear indicator,
because obviously we have the fear and greed index,
which also is now sliding more towards the fear set.
And I like this poll specifically,
not because I think that is necessarily
the best representation of will there be a recession or not,
but just to get another fear indicator.
And we kind of said it that we had reached levels above 40%,
the 44% chance mid-March,
but the situation has started to look better,
went as low as 32 cents,
so a 32% chance of an inflation,
of a recession to hit the US.
But recently, over the last couple of days,
this chance is up massively,
up 19% to 38%.
So we are nearing, quote-unquote,
all-time highs for recession fears on poly market as well.
So to sum it up, we went from having a bit more certainty with tariffs to now fearing that
Liberation Day, April 2, will bring the start of an all out tariff war. And on top of that,
inflation data looked a bit worse than we expected, which ultimately led to both
some pressure on the stock markets as well as crypto prices plummeting.
And on top of that, we had a few other rumblings from Trump, which were around
Russia and Putin, like explicitly coming out being annoyed and saying that no I'm actually
annoyed you know for a lot of times he's kind of either accused of being too friendly with him or
presenting himself as being friendly with him so as a good thing because they're you know
suggesting that he might be able to figure things out I think for the first time he's been quite
outwardly and publicly negative in that situation so there's that escalation i think or at least a
verbal escalation you also had the thing i don't know the validity of this but third term the third
term headline where he's kind of suggesting that you know i think in the states you are literally
only allowed to be president for two terms and he started suggesting that
maybe there's a way around and if you know things can be done to to to get a
third term which is incredibly disruptive for people's perception of
the state of the states I think if you're literally gonna throw out the
complete rulebook and the way he talked about that was, I feel like maybe that came across as concerning,
because you basically said there's like three ways.
Obviously, way one is, you know, you need to change the constitution, and you would
also need the approval of 75% of the states to change the law and allow for more than
two terms.
Way two would be vice president in the next run, and then step up for whatever reason and take over as a president.
And then exactly what you have said.
And there's also another way which he did not comment on what that way would be.
That sounded ominous.
Yeah, ominous. Let's phrase it like that.
I also see Funky with his hand up on that.
I'm quite curious to hear from him as our political correspondent.
Bring it in,
Funk. Real quick. So my wife, right after Trump
got elected again, she said he is going to be the president for the rest of our lives.
He's left it at that. So he's going to become sort of like autocratic dictator or something
like that. I have no idea. But it's interesting because until you guys mentioned it, I was
literally making her sandwich. I was like, what? what like in my head i'm like he literally said this stuff like
that he wants to run for a third term so this is all news to me so you guys are breaking the news
for me but uh i'm not surprised at all yeah i mean definitely go google it it sounds like legendary
had heard some of the more details i just kind of seen the quick headline and clicked into it
quickly definitely don't just keep an eye on like this kind of rhetoric look you know i think a lot of times out of 10 people used to come used
to say these things and people be like oh he's just he's just talking don't worry don't mind him
he'll like he'll flip soon because he you know cares about markets and whatever but um you know
some of this rhetoric is definitely not slowing down and it's kind of um except not
accelerating but the the the every additional new piece of rhetoric seems to be more extreme in some
way and so okay fine you're doing the tariffs that's like i guess part of your economic mandate
maybe you probably argue that that's the case but like throwing away the constitution and just doing
something that has never been done before trying to find a creative way around a rule which is in place for a very
particular reason is something far beyond what people are expecting now and it's definitely not
gonna help the markets in terms of uh thinking that we're in a stable situation so i think that's
you know it just wants to add on top of your your story there
ledge bread uh curious for your thoughts yeah it's all like this is him this is this is what
we've come to understand no like even like this happened last time dude didn't like he's always
he's always just like yeah i could i could probably get around it i could probably do it
like when it comes to different like terms and last time did we believe it did anyone believe it or do you think it's
still a bluff or the difference is last he explicitly said it is a joke like he added that
part and also then republican party members were saying yeah he's just trolling he's just joking
but this time like if you quote from that interview,
it was exactly what I described with the, you know, scenario that NBC News presented.
Vance is winning the next election.
Trump is his running mate.
And then he, for whatever reason,
steps up to be president again.
And then he said, Trump said, quote, unquote,
that's one method, but there are others too.
And then he was asked to share that other method and he simply said no i think i think the most the most dangerous part
of it is my response right like he does they flood the zone so hard with so much ridiculous stuff
that like he can say things like that i'm just like man it's kind of just what he does like
it's just it's it's week week 27 of the year and this is the 27th time i've had to deal with
dealing with something that that trump has said that is like outside the bounds of normal and
it's just like whatever the problem is i get i get like a little asleep with a lot of it because
like i just like i don't want to be bothered and eventually he's going to move on something and at that point I'm like oh fuck
he was he was serious and like that's that's when it gets dangerous yeah I think I think some of
this stuff from a yeah I mean you never know how much to dwell on it when as people who are
reporting on the stuff because look a we're just playing a guessing game. We've said this before when the president's market in the sense that
everything,
everything is being driven by the decisions that they take at the moment,
whatever tweets that they're putting out is like incredibly,
incredibly powerful.
But also you just don't know the veracity.
And there's some, as you said,
the volume of stuff that's coming out it's hard to place the right of the appropriate weight on each piece of news when someone is known for being very
hyperbolic and over the top all the time anyway so look we're just sharing the variety of ways
that things seem to be challenging at the moment uh legendary maybe a final thoughts put a bow on
this before we move into the next one again we're playing a bit of a guessing game here but where do you see this shake out like pre-summer
like is there any do you have any indication of anything here like what's the what's the read i've
seen a lot of people's takes and a lot of people's just kind of up in arms at the moment on the on the third term stuff really no no not on the tariff
on the tariff stuff however i don't at least i don't hope and i was a partially don't think
that he wants to focus his second presidency entirely on being on this like all-out tariff war so i do hope that this situation will improve leading
into into the summer but it's very very hard to predict what will happen because it's been going
back and forth on that so much and i feel like if he is now shifting to the rhetoric of going
on a trade war against all nations then then it's easier for every other country in
the world to kind of get together and be a bit more unified in their response.
Because if he's singling out targets, like if he's singling out Canada, what can Canada
do realistically?
Nothing.
Same with the EU.
They can't do anything against that.
But if he's not going against everyone, then that power momentum or the power pendulum might shift a bit.
The one thing I'd say is A, we don't know, but B, there's too many people now. The consensus thing,
the consensus thing seems to be like, look, it's going to be difficult. Summer, this is a write-off
for now. This is what I'm noticing. It's like everyone knew,
or at least we spoke about on the show,
like, look, inauguration is going to be this big moment.
Probably sell that.
But if you remember, as we got towards inauguration,
a lot of people started to say,
give me a little bit more.
Give me a little bit more.
Like, everyone wants to push out the thing one more quarter.
Everyone always just wants one more quarter.
And I think what's happening now is people can see that this is bad, but they want it to be better. So they're just
like, okay, well, summer's a write-off. Just give me one, just one extra quarter, you know, Q3,
Q4, things are going to pick up. Things are going to pick up. Like that's how it's going to be.
Things will improve in just a few months and I don't know guys.
I don't know.
Then just, I'm just putting a question mark there because I think too many people are,
well, depending on the, the, this tariff stuff, if any of it goes through, there's like really
long-term consequences of this stuff.
If the point of some of the tariffs is to onshore companies like no
stop producing all of your stuff over in that country bring all of that stuff into the states
so that you don't have to pay the tariffs that's like a multi-decade corporate plan that people
need to figure out and plan for and try to and try to implement and the confusing thing for me me that I don't know how to evaluate yet,
but this is just going to explain my thinking.
I don't know how people would be able
to do that in confidence
when this is probably such a contentious plan
that if the Republicans were not to win again
the next time,
what would be to stop the next organization
from reversing it? And in in that case what is the point
of any companies implementing the plan now if they think that there's a reasonable portion
a reasonable percentage chance that it's going to get reversed later on so you might just like
eat shit for three and a half years assuming that it's going to go bad and they're going to have to revoke
it at some point.
But that's just part of my thinking here.
Any final thoughts, Ledge, before we keep moving?
Yeah, very much, very much agree with that.
I think it's exactly like what you have been doing right now, right?
doing right now right thinking of how it could go what could it mean for the next party stepping in
Thinking of how it could go, what could it mean for the next party stepping in?
are we are we looking for you know having another quarter after the inauguration now we're looking
to postpone the action into fall like it seems that this uncertainty is like really the dominating
narrative right now and you're like still trying to find the positive things into that like i remember that a couple weeks ago this was all the master plan to get jpaw to bend the need to get
rates down now the stock markets while like basically a very objective commentator of what
is happening just stop liking that and stop thinking that this is what is going on because
we've been going down for quite a while and i do think that
it's exactly this uncertainty that's dominating and nobody really knows what to make of what
statement and which of that to take seriously and which not like ultimately as we just said you have
a president flirting with a third term and nobody's really able to say is he joking is he serious
about that and that basically goes for all the other things
as well and it's hard to operate in those conditions with stability as a financial market
okay i think that's fine i think that's a perfect final sentence on that point very very difficult
to operate with stability in the financial market when this kind of activity is taking place let's
keep it moving that's enough on the political side for
today uh brad talk to us about the eth btc ratio which is hitting a bit of a milestone point but
not specifically for a good reason yeah do we want to gross um i mean i will because my lord
and savior b check put it on the thing look guys i don't it brings me not much joy
to say this but the headline is eth btc ratio hits same low five years ago i don't know if you guys
are aware that i wasn't until i logged on this morning but we are we're here um so we got three
little posts we can look at for talking about this first one here we have mike dudas he's showing a
chart of the ratio with on the five-year time horizon and you can see uh significant progress was made and has since evaporated over that time
span going from uh 0.02 to up to 0.08 so you know 4xing and then back down again
we're so we're back down to it um that's cool then Then you have a look over to Ansem. Ansem had another post on it.
And he was just saying last time ETH BTC was this low,
was ETH was trading under $100 just to give you a perspective of time and like, you know, just like relative dollar figures, like $100.
Like everyone over the last four or five years has said like,
like, man, if I could have ETH at the $77, if I could have ETH at the $100, we're in the vibes
man, if I could have ETH at the $77, if I could have ETH at the $100,
space of that same dollar figure. And you can see that by going to our third post, which is
showing from Cointelegraph the quarter returns for Ethereum. And the last time that we were down in
this vibe space was back in 2018 with a q1 return of negative it was
negative 46 then it's negative 42 uh today not awesome as you can see and then you know i saw
that and i was like yeah but like it probably went up after that and then you look like ah
had a positive quarter single like single double percent percentages and then hammered hammered
again two following quarters like that's a lot of that's a lot of red in the future if we're just going to do like a history doesn't
uh repeat but it rhymes situation so uh buckle up buckaroos because uh if you are looking to the
past to guess what the future is based purely on this right we're not talking about fundamentals
we're not talking about a new paradigm a lot of stuff has changed since then right we have infinity
other chains we have like etf is thing. One of only two that are approved
right now. We have a favorable macro conditions outside of Trump being insane, right? Like there's
like, there are things to look forward to, but questions still remain. And just purely looking
back over the last quarter, it's been a rough market for for you if you are an
eth holder yes that is true uh that's one of the tweets i wrote over the weekend said the
biggest mistake i've spoken about on the show before the biggest mistake i made the cycle
despite being able to make like profitable trades outside of eth just the core if the core holding
is not going up then uh you're kind of missing out on a lot of the gains. That's like one of my core
reflections. Everything outside of Bitcoin is tech and we're investing in tech and sometimes tech is
good. And then sometimes the other tech is either providing it very, very stiff competition or
coming right up behind it in order to try to compete with it. And whatever tech you have has
to continue to be able to compete um as kusho
says if if anything's going bad in your life right now it does sound like what he said if btc is down
bad and probably the source of my life problems right now why not i think a lot of these holders
might be feeling similar one final statistic on that which is really horrible when you hear it out loud but that's going to send a shiver down your spine one bitcoin is 44.5 eth that means nothing to me like that i don't do that i don't do
trading i don't do ratios and stuff so like you know i hear these things but neither do i i don't
do the ratio that much either but it just the number 44.5 like that is the highest it's ever well you know
I spent for five years but for me that's definitely like ETH is higher or BTC is higher so it's always
just been like a big number that's just like me I've never really tried to contextualize it for
me I think the thing that's worth the thing that's worth like um maybe observing here is that i like the eth price action has that been awesome
and it's frustrating because there has been so much useful stuff that has been built atop and
connect with like arms reach away from ethereum right like kaido kaido just people got six fig
airdrops uh from from that which is you know it's the token exists on base right which is
apparently ethereum so like there's a lot of consternation because like you're you're really from that, which is, you know, the token exists on base, right, which is apparently Ethereum. So
like, there's a lot of consternation, because like, you're really close to stuff that like,
like have pockets of green shoots that is valuable. It's just not all translating to
direct value accrual to Ethereum, which is frustrating, because, you know, the thought
was, you know, traditionally, just like, oh, that's just an index on all of the apps being built on
top of the thing and if you view like l2s and the things on top of the l2s as like the thing that is
built on top of ethereum then you're like i should be getting some of that but you're not
you're not getting all that uh and that's frustrating frustrating is one way to describe
it i agree uh i can concur with that but look the plight of eth
is not something we can get into we try to get into it routinely we have been getting into it
routinely but we can't do it more today we've only got a few minutes left in the show and i do think
it's worth getting into this guns token buy off the grid big big anticipated game well the game's
already out people playing it people
actually like it it's actually a good game people seem to be enjoying it it's on abax
but the token itself i think is launching today legendary what do we need to know here
what are we looking out for what's exciting about it what do we need to know yeah absolutely it's
a very very exciting tge today we don't have the time to get into all of the tokenomics and details.
I'm just going to keep it with the key facts.
Long vesting, very minimal unlocks on day one,
basically just the community incentives plus the Binance launch pool drops.
No unlocks for a month, five-month gap before the next release.
Also, founders and team have a 12.8% allocation,
Guns Foundation 9% advises 5.3 or 5.29. So not the highest of
figures. The interesting thing here is that we're not talking about a quote unquote, like simple
in-game token. It's actually an L1 that is being built that is there to cover all gas fees and the
Guns ecosystem, pay for skins, upgrades, subscriptions, battle pass,
purchases on the guns P2P marketplace.
This thread goes on to make a comparison,
basically how this is different from Fortnite,
Warzone, PUBG, Apex Legends, et cetera, et cetera.
Basically saying everything is tradable,
everything is decentralized, player owned,
and lives on the blockchain.
Going into the launch pool on BNB,
we can see that 4% of the total token supply is going to the launch pool. And initial circulating
supply when listed on Binance is going to be 6.05% of the total supply. The impressive fact and figure there is that by
March 2025, GANs hit 14.5 million wallets, 480 million plus transactions, obviously massive
numbers for Web3. But what I find the most impressive number, which I always like to
look at is if there's a Binance launch pool, obviously, to see how much money is staked in
anticipation of the TGE. And that number is absolutely crazy for GUNS. It is $15.8 billion
by 1.6 million participants. So very, very excited market.
Is that like a country's GDP staking for the GUNS token?
Say that again.
Is that like some country in the world's GDP staking against the GUNS token?
Probably, yeah, if you look at some very small, not successful state.
Maybe they'd be more successful if they were staking for the GUNS token.
Okay, look, interesting stuff stuff we will see how that goes
later today then and we'll report on it tomorrow as you said like this is one that has a bit of
energy behind it and in this particular market where things are more challenging we think they're
careening for the same same outcome that ethereum has i talking like, oh, Guns is so great for
AVAX. Oh, it's building. Oh, it's own L1.
Oh, it's its own token. Oh, it's its own thing
in its own little pocket.
I think there's going to be some frustration
on the horizon.
Too much excitement, if you ask me.
It's a great game, right?
They raised 100 mil in six rounds, but
16 billion staked.
It's one of the first playable, arguably AAA games that's billion staked and i mean it's one of the like first playable
arguably triple a games that's coming out of that but it's not like if you just compare it to a
traditional game it's not a multi multi multi billion dollar token it shouldn't be i get it
they're building the ecosystem of building and one they're not the only ones to do that i'm not trying to to talk that down by any means
but in this market seeing so much excitement i don't know how well this will do in a couple
of months to be honest i guess yeah okay so look on the one hand there's the gaming aspect but then
on the other hand it's like it is a l1 token um which I think probably adds a bit of premium to the price immediately.
So we'll see.
We'll see how that goes.
We will report on it as usual tomorrow.
We hope you enjoyed the show today.
We do this every single day, Monday to Friday at 7 a.m. Eastern time for one hour live on x x video youtube apple and spotify thank you to
legendary and bread for co-hosting with me thank you to funky and oxy for their contributions as
always and thank you for joining us thank you for commenting like crazy dancing on eth's grave
in the youtube comments it might not always be be delightful, but at least I get some enjoyment from the pain there.
Thanks so much for being with us.
As always, we'll be back again tomorrow.
Take care and goodbye.
