Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
Crypto Crash Ending… OR Is It Just Getting Started!? [Watch BEFORE You Trade]
Recorded: April 8, 2025 Duration: 0:39:38Space Recording
Short Summary
Market sentiment shows signs of recovery with significant movements in both crypto and stock markets, highlighted by a notable 40% rise in Fartcoin and a $7 trillion swing in the US stock market. Traders are closely monitoring key support levels and potential trends that could indicate growth opportunities amidst ongoing volatility.
Full Transcription
charts this morning you may see a little bit of relief within the markets and you may be wondering
to yourself you know is the crypto crash over is the worst over for the stock market are we about
to v-shape and recover to Valhalla or is it just getting started that's what we're going to discuss
in today's show smash the like button hit the bell notification and subscribe to the channel
if you're not already subscribed and let's get straight into the show content uh for today
because it is a sea of green right if you look over here on the daily getting some massive bounces
and this shows that there is still risk appetite out there um and that could actually be problematic
right if there is still risk appetite that's the question you know um how much liquidity is there
still left to flush out of the market when you have things like Fartcoin up 40% almost right on the day. So is it a dead cat bounce? Is it the start of another new major move? These are
the things that I want to discuss. We'll have a look at some of the key things that you need to
be focused on leading into today, because I think we need to await to see what the response is going
to be from China, right? I'll show you why China is going to be so critical in today's moves for
the market.
If we have a look over here at the stock market on the weekly, well, that is still red, right? But we'll see how the stock market opens. We got a little bit of relief yesterday. Credit to Rand,
who did, you know, he often puts out these predictions, but saying that the stock market
will close green on the day, and it did marginally, marginally, marginally close green. So we'll see,
is the worst over?
Are we going to put in a bit of relief over the coming days and weeks, right?
So yesterday we saw the pump that was actually led due to fake news, right?
The US stock market swung a massive $7 trillion in 30 minutes, right?
That is significantly bigger than the crypto market.
One day swing, twice the size of the crypto market in its entirety, right, which is a huge move.
And that's on a fake tariff deal.
That's from Kabisi led over here.
And you can see basically what happened is there was a report saying that Trump is considering a 90-day pause on the tariffs.
And that's what led to the start of the pump, right? The S&P 500 rallied 400 points just in a matter of minutes and basically showcasing, you know, that the market
has a risk appetite. They want to jump back in. They want to put their money in the market.
And then it was erased, right? Immediately S&P 500 raised those 300 points of the rally.
And that is following Trump on his Truth Social, who went and made a post and said,
you know,
if China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses
by tomorrow, which is now today, April the 8th, 2025, then the US is going to impose
another additional tariff on China of 50%, right?
Which would basically mean that you're taking the total tariffs on China against China to 104%. And that's essentially what we're waiting for, right? Which would basically mean that you're taking the total tariffs on China against China to
104%. And that's essentially what we're waiting for, right? So now we need to wait to see what
China says, which means that there could still be more volatility within the market, which means
that if you are buying at these levels, you know, you're definitely playing a little bit of a
gambler's game because when the market is uncertain, it usually moves into a risk-off environment. But there are some signs, right, that things could start to change.
I want to outline those signs today. Number one, stock market coming into key support,
and number two, gold potentially putting in a bit of a top. These are things that we do want to look
at. You can also see, if you just keep it simple, right, income sharks tweet over here, you know,
when you look at the stock market, it's never going to end.
You typically find those tops
in the top of the parallel channel.
And it's never been worse.
That's your at least COVID crash over there.
This was the crash that we had
at the end of the bear market
where the bear market came down sustainably,
lower lows and lower highs and met that trend line.
And then again, we've said in the top over there,
it's never going to end targeting 8,000, 9,000 on the S&P 500. And now you've come all
the way down. It's never going to get worse. The only question that you really should have over
here is, are you going to sweep that low, right? Are you going to deviate this blue line over here,
which is your upsloping trend line and sweep below that, which is possible, but then still close back above, right? That would lead to one more leg of capitulation, right?
So a lot of important things to look at over here.
Here's your S&P 500.
We spoke about this is a key and obvious level
to be bidding straight into the 200-week moving average.
Of course, it makes total sense.
Also, when you do study how oversold,
and I use that word with absolute caution because
the market can always become more oversold, but when you look at how oversold the RSI is on the
weekly timeframe, every single time that you've come down into these levels has elicited a massive,
huge bounce within the stock market. You can feel free to go back and backtest this.
You've got this one over here. You've got this one over here. Big, big, big moves, right? You've got this one over here. You have every single one of these
lows, especially when it meets up with that 200-week moving average, you do get pretty sizable
bounces. Now, the question is, once we do get this bounce, is it going to lead into a lower high?
What you can do to figure that out is use your FIB levels levels mark from the absolute high to the low over here and you
want to be focusing on that 50% level which is 5,500 and if it gets really really heated you
know 5,700 in your golden pocket over there at the 0.618 to 65 and then see if it sets in a low
high if it does set in a lower high then of course you're probably going down for another leg so
um you know i do think that this was probably a decent buy on the stock market.
But a lot of retail have been positioning in over here, which we've also spoken about,
which means retail ultimately do get wrecked, which increases the possibility and the probability
that you might get one more sweep through, right?
And if you look at some of these prior times, a lot of the biggest scares within the stock
market have resulted in a sweep below that 200 week moving average, because it's just such an obvious area
to bid, which means there's liquidity there, which means people have placed their stop losses
underneath that 200 week moving average. So the question is like this over here, for example,
you've hit that level on the nose, you rally towards the upside, you come back down, you sweep
it, and then the run begins. Will we get something like that? Only time will tell, right? So a lot to play for,
a lot to fight for over here within the markets. Another thing that I'm looking at is gold. Gold
coming into test, it's 50-day moving average. Gold typically being the risk of asset, right?
When the market is uncertain, they typically move into gold. When gold moves towards the upside,
you typically see the risk on assets struggling. Now, since gold is coming into this key area, we do have three red
candles in a row. And sometimes that's a good indication of a reversal. On top of that, you have
the TD9 sequential top on multiple different timeframes, right? So we looked at it coming
on to high timeframes, like the weekly, the three-month
timeframe over here. There it is, three-month timeframe, as well as on a yearly potential top,
right? So I want to be studying this chart closely. I want to be focused on this chart over here,
and I'm looking at it on the weekly timeframe, or actually let's go on to the daily timeframe over
here. So on the daily timeframe, focusing on the high to the low, if this has in fact topped,
because we of course also have taken out that low.
So we've got a break of structure here.
You've swept that level, right?
You can see this level over here has been swept.
There you go.
Candle closed below.
Officially closing below that level,
suggesting that maybe if there is weakness over here
and we're gonna bounce up and sit in a lower high,
that in fact, this is gonna be a major reversal point for gold. Now it's interesting because we
know that if we look at the correlation between gold and Bitcoin or gold and the stock market,
these are mostly inversely correlated, which is why you have the Spearman and the Pearson
coefficient all the way down in the negative territory, right? Anywhere around that negative one, the closest to negative one, the more inversely correlated,
which means if one goes up, the other goes down.
If one goes down, the other goes up.
So if gold goes down over here, then maybe, just maybe, this is correct, right?
Maybe, just maybe, it's never been worse.
And you hit that key level for the stock market, and you start to put in a major rally from this point.
Remember, the markets are very forward looking as well.
So we need to see, and that's the reason that they repositioned so aggressively into the market yesterday or for fake news, because most professional traders understand that, right?
If there's one inclination that things may become better, immediately the market will reposition in into the long trade, right? Because
it's forward looking. And we need to pay attention to that. So with that being said, I'll be watching
out for gold to potentially find weakness over here into that 0.5 level. That's going to be
coming in at 3,062. I would probably start to scale into a short trade over here, something like this.
Let's just actually put that a little bit neater.
We'll grab our triangle over here.
So I'd be looking to build a short trade between these levels over here for gold.
So looking to short into this region over here with, of course, a hard stop loss above these highs, right?
So that would be the short trade.
It's a worthwhile risk to reward setup because if gold does find weakness over here, essentially, you would be short gold and you'd be long risk assets like Bitcoin as well as the stock market, right?
It's a worthwhile risk to reward setup because if gold does find weakness over here,
So this next leg up on gold, as it does bounce, could lead to one more drop in the stock market as well as in crypto.
And that's where you could take out those lows, something to pay attention to.
something to pay attention to. For those of you that do want to trade gold, maybe it's not
your usual trade that you take, but keep in mind, this is on a T-sequential nine top.
This shows exhaustion within the market on the high timeframes. If you do want to trade this,
believe it or not, you can actually trade it on Bybit, right? So use the link in the description
below over here, go through over here, click on the link here for buy bit you can take the gold short trade over here claim up to a 30 000 sign up bonus um and look for the gold futures uh charts over there
right you can actually trade gold there which is amazing cool let's get into crypto okay and we have
to talk a little bit also about the vix and things like that but let's have a look at crypto over here
in terms of the liquidations this has come come down. Remember, we had $1 billion worth of liquidations,
majority coming from the long side.
And then yesterday, over the last 24 hours,
we've seen half a billion dollars worth.
And actually, the majority of those
came from the short side, of course.
Shorting after the moves already happened,
it's not smart.
And consequently, you're seeing them pay for that, right?
So liquidations over there, short squeeze. It's important. It's important smart. And consequently, you're seeing them pay for that, right? So liquidations of their short squeeze.
It's important.
It's important to focus on that because that short squeeze, if we look over here, let's
quickly go to the chart, is enough to easily create this bounce, right?
It's not necessarily that this is massive spot buying longs coming into the market,
establishing fair value over there.
This move up could have easily been driven by shorts, right? spot buying longs coming into the market, establishing fair value over there. This
move up could have easily been driven by shorts, right? So let's quickly see how the volume has
changed. Volume is only up 15% today. If we look at the positioning of the long to short ratio on
the top, it's more or less 50-50. So everything is as you would expect over there. We have the
VIX, which spiked up to very, very, very high level showing, again, probably not a bad place for the long term
if you did buy the dip over there on the stock market.
That goes the same is true for the Nasdaq, right?
Nasdaq actually hitting an even more key level
because you have a cleaner level of horizontal support over there,
which has been found, and the RSI also presenting similar reads.
Let's quickly see what happened over here on Tesla.
Tesla threatening to lose that 200 week moving average uh you can also see over here uh the week's not over yet so we'll see
if it can hold this trend line over here that's going to be interesting as well for tesla let's
see what nvidia did um nvidia still is a bit to go to reach fair value at the 200 week moving average
you can see that rsi as well downrending over there and rejecting following the massive bearish
divergence with price putting in higher highs, RSI putting in lower highs over there. So for
NVIDIA, which is a very, very volatile stock that swings bigger than sometimes crypto does,
I would probably wait for a break of this trend line over here with the RSI before positioning
too aggressively into something like NVID Nvidia, right? So we'll see
if the VIX gets one more spike up. But at the end of the day, in terms of longer timeframe plays,
you know, probably not a bad place to have established long trades on the stock market.
Even if you do work down a little bit lower, you know, you could always buy a bit more.
If we look at Bitcoin divided by the VIX, well, it actually has hit this key level. Remember,
we spoke about this over the last couple of weeks, we said,, it actually has hit this key level. Remember, we spoke about this over the last couple of weeks. We said every time Bitcoin has hit this key level, you typically
actually get a pretty large Bitcoin move. Now, you've come into this trend line quite a lot,
especially recently. I like to see time reinforcing a level, right? So there's a lot of time
between these two touch points. There's also a lot of time between these two touch points. You
might not be able to see it, but that's a wick that came into the trend line over there. And that elicited a pretty big move.
This is where Bitcoin came down to $49,000. And that move up led Bitcoin to rally to the $108,000
highs. But we don't have that much time that's reinforced these two levels over here, which is
why I want to be a little bit more cautious as opposed to getting too optimistic,
even though we are coming into key levels.
I'd rather wait in case this level does actually break
and you come down towards a key horizontal, right?
So I'd rather wait for some levels to be reclaimed.
Now, what are the levels that need to be reclaimed
in order to reposition into a swing trade?
Previously, we said it was this level over here.
I think we can now drop that level, which gives us a better entry point, which means
now based on our exit, our initial exit at $92,000 to $94,000 before this breakdown, we really can't
lose, right? Now you need to see price get back above this $86,000 to $87,000 region on the higher
timeframes. And if it does,
you'll be reclaiming or recapturing that 21 weekly exponential moving average, which has given us
a bearish signal as it's moving towards the downside. And on top of that, we can also focus
on the stop and reversal indicators, which are also downtrending, and those will start to get a
little bit more aggressive, right? So hopefully, we can continue to ride this towards the downside.
aggressive, right? So hopefully we can continue to ride this towards the downside. And then we'll
have a much safer entry without actually risking any capital because we've already positioned out
of the market. So a reclaim and hold above here would essentially get me interested again in at
least to trade it back towards the highs, right? So that is the high timeframe that we're looking
at over there. This chart is still suggesting, despite the fact that you've got a little bit of a move up over here, it's still telling me that there's a good
chance that you'll come down into the $69,000 to $72,000 region, right? So I am paying attention
to that. I'm keeping a close eye on it. My accounts are funded, and I am just awaiting
for the right signal before I actually pull the trigger, right? Of course, you know,
yesterday, you could have already started to establish a position, but I'm looking to experience
little to no drawdown on my entry. So that's the difference, right? You take on a lot more risk
when you're trying to catch a falling knife, meaning that you have to be mentally prepared
and positioned to experience drawdown, but then you might get the
best price. But it comes at a price, right? It comes with risk, with increased risk. Personally,
I don't mind buying a little bit higher, but taking on less risk or not much risk at all,
right? Meaning I would experience little to no drawdown whatsoever. I'm talking about
half a percent, 1% drawdown on my total portfolio, as opposed to if I blindly bought
over here, this would have been your risk, right? If you blindly bought over there, you might risk
eight percent, nine percent drawdown. I can't handle that. I can't handle those kind of swings
if I'm entering in with massive size, right? So that's what we're looking at over there.
If you don't already have your account funded, get your account funded. There's actually an amazing, amazing
initiative over here with Old Bank, where you guys can
actually win one ETH. Very, very, very interesting, at least,
at least, I don't know if you call this a competition, but
initiative that they have over here. How does it work? You sign
up, and you can control how many spins you get, right? It
doesn't take a lot to trade $1, many spins you get, right? It doesn't take a lot to trade
a thousand dollars worth of futures, right?
How do you trade a thousand dollars worth of futures?
If you take a hundred dollar trade on 10X leverage
and you open and close that trade,
you qualify for one spin.
Then you come through over here, you spin the wheel
and you can see what the prices look like.
One ETH, one SOL.
What have we got over here?
0.001 BTC.
We've got a hundred PI. We've got 100 PI.
We've got 10 XRP.
You've got five SUE, five Cardano, 10 DOGE.
Basically, you're guaranteed to win something, right?
And the more that you trade over there,
if you trade more than $200,000,
you get five spins of that wheel,
and then you can come and keep spinning and try and win.
So if you want to participate with that,
use the link in the description below.
I know many of you have already signed up there to Old Bank.
If you haven't already, click that link,
sign up over there.
Only this link.
There's no other link in the whole world
that will qualify you for this spin the wheel opportunity.
It's only my link exclusively.
So use it or don't use it.
All right, let's continue.
Looking at the seven-day daily exchange volume,
it is starting to attempt to turn a corner. You're starting to slowly grind up with higher lows over there, but the broader structure is still very much towards the downside, right? You can see over there, lower lows and lower highs if we look in relationship to the prior cycles where we didn't even get close to where those highs were, right? So I think it is high time to pay attention because we did speak
about this $50 billion region, which we've deviated below, right? We had like 34. But if
you start to recapture that $50 billion region in terms of daily exchange volume, that's where
things get quite interesting, especially if price does start to break structure. As it currently
stands, the trends are still towards the downside. Don't get confused by that. Remember, relief rallies can be extreme. That's why you see things like
this in terms of crypto rallying, 30%, 40%, 50%. Massive, massive rallies. Look at that. Hype up a
lot. You've got KCS, KuCoin, their token up a lot, Renda up 19%. You can see massive relief rallies,
but you're trading counter to the trend, right?
That's what you have to be careful of.
So what is the market doing right now?
Well, this is going to be a major resistance region
around that $83,000 zone.
And you can see, of course, both spot and leverage,
which is the orange and the white,
we're selling off towards the downside.
And both of them jumped in for the small move towards the upside and now they're starting to roll over and you do need to be cautious of that right um if you just draw a trend line over there
and you start to break that trend down and this is supporting that they're all moving in the same
direction then expect another move towards the downside right so here's your daily daily we want this rsi level to break you can see it's been governing price all the way towards the downside, right? So here's your daily. We want this RSI level to
break. You can see it's been governing price all the way towards the downside. You haven't been
able to break out of this level yet, but there is still a chance that you get some sort of bullish
divergence forming in the coming days and weeks. You're below all the moving averages over here.
You can see price also struggling at the yellow horizontal line. If you can get above $80,685
today, well, that will allow for your RSI to trend towards the upside. But again, I wouldn't get too
excited until such time as this RSI breaks out of that trend and price simultaneously also breaks
out of that trend. Then you can consider all of this a deviation and a bit of a swing failure
pattern, which you do have the possibility for that swing failure pattern, right? Remember,
if you focus specifically on these lows over here, well, you've swept them, right? You've
swept those lows. You did hit one of our key areas, right? You hit one of the key areas of
interest over here. You narrowly missed it, right? But nevertheless, you still came into this fair
value gap over here, and you've got the swing failure.
So theoretically, many people will be taking the long trade over here, but risk to reward is not that great right now.
It's putting a more to one to one if you're going to be targeting back towards the breakdown level.
And I prefer two to one or higher.
OK, if I am going to be taking the trade, you did get a big volume spike over here, which again shows interest, right? You should pay attention because you have the daily exchange volume moving up and now you've
got a big spike in the volume, but still below at least the volume profile over here, which has
been acting as resistance throughout. So you're still caught in that pocket, right? And I would
prefer to see one more sweep down more cleanly into the fair value gap at $72,510.
I think that would provide a better risk to reward opportunity.
Liquidity is building both on the up and the downside.
Over the three-day timeframe, you definitely have more liquidity on the top side.
Over the 24-hour timeframe, let's have a look over here.
Also more liquidity on the upside over there.
So again, of course, always a possibility for a short squeeze, but the trend is the most important thing.
So the areas that I'm focused on over here for today
is really this, right?
We'll see if bulls can get above that level over there.
If bulls can start to get above this breakdown level,
just call it $83,000.
You know, maybe then you can say that the low's in.
It's possible, right?
Things are front-runnable.
The key support was over here. It is possible that in. It's possible, right? Things are front-runnable. The key support was over here.
It is possible that they front-run it, right?
But keep in mind that there is a little bit of a deviation
between crypto and the stock market
because if crypto had played out,
or Bitcoin had played out the way the stock market had,
Bitcoin should be trading in the $50,000 region already
to play out the same type
of downside move. Remember, the stock market took out both April and August lows. Bitcoin is well
above August lows, which is $49,000, right? So yeah, interesting. Anyway, I prefer to trade them
when they're more in unison, because this is the way that the market more naturally moves, right? Okay, so keep an eye out on this level over here, $82,000, $83,000 or $83,000 is the level to
reclaim. That's the breakdown level, that's going to be your underside resistance. You have to treat
the trend as your friend till the end, which is a downtrend, which means that your expectation
should be a probable rejection from there, and then sweeping down into a lower low. And then we're going to pay a lot of attention at the $72,000 to $73,000 region, right? You can see on the hourly
timeframe as well, you've got your momentum oscillators are starting to turn the corner
again, starting to roll over, which is going to make it really difficult in the short term for
bulls to get back above this region over here. Again, that is the level to reclaim, right? If
you start to reclaim that in the short term,
things do start to look a little bit interesting.
On Saturday, I did a show where we started
to open up those positions on SUI and Solana.
We'll talk about the altcoins.
I did get those links for you.
Remember, they had to create the bots.
The bots are now listed below.
For those of you that wanted them,
those are the PINEX bots.
There they are.
There you can see it. There's the Solana one. It's a 5X trade. And there is the SUI one. How did we
take these trades? Let's just quickly see if I can pull those levels up. Just give me a second.
Let me see if I have those over here. Let me just find them. Key level two. We need this one over
here. These are the trade setups.
Okay, we're on the daily timeframe.
Let's pull it up.
All right, cool, cool, cool.
So we have Solana.
There we go.
The basis of that trade idea was that price on Solana
was gonna deviate possibly even as low as $78,
but we're looking to scale into the position
using the bots within this general area, right? So let's quickly pull that up. Within this general area, we're looking to scale into the position using the bots within this general area, right?
So let's quickly pull that up.
Within this general area, we're looking to scale in.
So we've taken that trade, right?
There it is, there's the Solana long.
And then for the Sui one,
the basis was that we're looking to scale into the trade
all the way down towards these lows,
potentially down to about 165,
which I'm gonna highlight the area of interest.
We're looking for a reaction or bounce
out of that zone, and then you'd be selling
into the relief rally, and consequently,
there is the sui bot.
So for those of you that want that, it is there, right?
It is there, the links in the description below,
you'd have to sign up to Pynex, and then you can come
through and copy the strategies, they've also been dropped
in the Whirlroom Discord.
All right, cool, we can have a look at a couple
of other things
and then go back into the altcoin mix
and see where things are in terms of the altcoins.
I definitely find this to be an interesting spot.
I know that emotionally,
it would be really difficult to bid altcoins over here,
but nevertheless, this is just super interesting
because you have this pivot level over here,
which is govern price towards the downside.
You also have, when you measure from the high to the exact low, the 786, which is coming
in over there at 66.27%. So I want to pay attention, right? All I want to do is just pay attention to
see what the reaction is over here. I'm never trying to get in too early into these trades.
But if we do see a big move up in the Bitcoin dominance and some kind of
a swing failure pattern at that 0.786 level, you know, that's going to be interesting, right? Maybe
it only happens in May, right? If we draw the trajectory up over here, you know, this leads up
into May, June, maybe it only happens in May or June, which is after the Fed have already had a
couple of meetings. I think that we also have CPI coming out this week, right? So definitely pay attention to that.
Let's quickly go to Forex Factory over here.
And maybe they reposition their stance
leading into, of course, May, into the meeting over there.
And then you see a breakdown in Bitcoin dominance
and we actually do get some sort of relief, right?
So it's still a bit too soon for me personally to say
that the absolute crypto cycle top is in. No doubt it's bearish until proven otherwise.
But we do have CPI coming out on Thursday, right? So there it is, US core CPI month on month and
year on year coming out on Thursday with unemployment claims. And then on the Friday,
which is sometimes their real measure for what the inflation rate is doing,
is the PPI, right? They're going to be looking at the PPI on Friday. So it's going to be very,
very interesting times indeed, right? Cool. So that's Bitcoin dominance over there. USDT dominance,
you know, you got a little bit of a rejective candle pretty much coming almost perfectly into that downsloping trend line that we have marked off over here on the daily. So if we just contract this a little bit,
got that downsloping trend line over there.
So when this comes into resistance
and Bitcoin comes into support,
usually looking for the other side of the trade
where you reposition from USDT into Bitcoin.
And I told you yesterday
and the days leading up to yesterday
that you could look to scale
into Bitcoin. But as I've just said in today's show, personally, I'm going to wait for signs of
strength, because I prefer to trade with momentum, where the trend is towards the upside. So if I
position into Bitcoin, I want to buy into strength with momentum moving towards the upside, as
opposed to attempting to catch a falling knife, right? But this is a good leading indicator
as well that will showcase to you when things are starting to change. So it's not enough information
yet over here. We've been tracking this step by step. Remember, if we look at the little pink
box over here, and I'll highlight it again to this pink box over here, we've been trailing this all
the way. We said, you know, if you can break below the pink box down here, we'll get long Bitcoin.
If you can break below the pink box here, we'll get long Bitcoin. If you can break below the pink box down here, we'll get long Bitcoin. If you can break below the pink box here, we'll get long Bitcoin.
If you can break below it over here,
we'll get long Bitcoin.
Then it was this level over here.
This was the fake Trump pump over here
that was artificially caused
through his Truth Social post.
We said, if you can break below that,
we'll get long crypto and Bitcoin.
Then we moved it over here.
You know, now we're sitting somewhere around here.
Like, let's keep it safe.
Let's stick with that level.
If you can break below 5%, then you can start to open up swing longs on Bitcoin. And then what probably
happens simultaneously is Bitcoin has recovered and reclaimed $86,000. And that shows that there's
much more of a safe entry back into the market. ETH BTC continues to get hammered. This is the
level to reclaim. If you really,
really want a tight entry, I guess you can go over there at about 0.02157. But in my experience,
it's always better to remain a bit more conservative. The true conservative entry
would actually still probably be here because that means that you have to get back above this
200-day moving average, which is currently downtrending. You need to break that
trend. You have plenty of opportunity. You're not going to miss the move, right? That's something
you need to get into your head, right? You're not going to miss the move. When you have moving
averages aggressively downtrending like this, what first needs to happen is you need to establish
a trading range. You never V-shape like this, ever, ever, ever. And if you did see a move like that,
I can tell you with 99.99% probability, it's going to be met with massive resistance and
immediately faded back towards the downside, and it's going to create new loads. So what would the
reversal on ETH BTC look like? What should your expectation be? Your expectation should be that the 50 and 200 moving average will start to
roll over like this, right? It'll start to roll over like this, and it's going to take a long time.
Then you need to form a trading range where price will probably bounce and oscillate between those
two levels, and then it will break out of that trading range, and then that's considered the
deviation. Of course, if you want to be a bottom buyer that's a
different game that you're playing which has a very low success rate because you probably in that
instance would have tried to buy the bottom everywhere over here and then you try to buy it
over here and then you try to buy it over here and here and then that week over here and you're
trying to buy it again and it just keeps going low and low which means your average entry is over
there which means you could have had better capital preservation and just waited for the confirmation of the move and the
breakout out of the trading range. The trading range will typically form following a strong
downtrend. It's very, very rare unless you have a sudden crash like the stock market has had that
you get a V-shaped recovery. And even then, it doesn't always have to happen, right? So those are the things
you need to be very, very careful of. Keep a watchful eye out on the USDT dominance. Keep a
watchful eye out as well on the four-hour timeframe for Bitcoin. If it can start to reclaim back about
that $83,000 region, maybe just maybe we're going to put in a bigger move. But it's, of course,
heavily affected right now by the trade wars, right?
You've got these giants like China and the U.S. fighting it out, right?
And it seems like Donald Trump, of course, is pretty stuck in his way.
It doesn't look like he's going to back down.
I don't know if China is going to back down either.
So it could get very, very interesting.
So it's all about capital preservation.
In this game, you need to survive.
You need to survive to thrive. If you get blown out, you're out of the game. It's over, right?
Game over. There's no chance of coming back. So protect your capital while you can. Let's have
a look at some of the altcoins. So just again, going back to Solana, let's clean this up a little
bit, remove our little circles over there. Okay, cool.
Look, you know, right now it's finding resistance at the previous month's low. So we'll see what
happens over here. You know, if that is the low, I would still anyway expect another sweep down
towards about 100. And then you'd look for the deviation, the reclaim above the previous month's
low. And then you can start to say, you say, maybe you can target up to about 126.
So eventually there is gonna be a big relief rally, guys.
There'll be a huge relief rally.
I've said this before,
it's gonna put in about 100% move, right?
At some point.
But right now, this is still bearish, right?
So your breakdown level is 122.
If you can get above 122,
then you know the relief rally's on
and this thing's probably gonna ascend much higher.
If you look at SUI, and again, just to remind you, that's part of the reason why we're scaling into
positions using these grid bots, right? Let me quickly see if I can bring this up just to
show you exactly the way that it works. So here's the grid bot. One second, one second,
let me just see. I don't want to dox uh too much information over here uh let's
quickly pull up those grid bots there we go we got it over here there we have it so that's your
grid bot for example sui so the way the grid bot works is price comes down buy buy buy buy buy into
the green and then when price starts to move up into the red it will sell sell sell sell sell
and then it keeps doing that and it oscillates between those various different levels. And that's essentially the aim of it. Yeah. So
when you do get the relief rally, those bots are going to sell into that relief rally for both
Solana and Sui. Okay, let's have a look at hype. You know, hype, maybe a little bit of a scary
picture. I didn't want to introduce it to quite quite yet, but I forgot to remove this part of
the chart. So I guess you guys are going to see it now. Firstly, what I want to say is it's hard
to chart something that doesn't have too much price issue, right? So all we have to work with
was this parallel channel. You can see where the highs were capped over there at the top.
And then we have this downtrend over here. So we're looking for some sort of a low.
That was actually Monday low. That came pretty much perfectly into there. And you're getting
a bit of a relief rally. Similar to Bitcoin, there is a possibility for a swing failure pattern,
right? A swing failure pattern where bears try to take control. And this is your range low. You're
treating this as your range low. Deviates. If you can reclaim that range low,
yes, it opens up the long trade, right?
And then you're gonna find a bit of resistance
at the previous month's mid-range at about 16.60,
and then again, around that 19, $20 region.
But what I wanted to identify or showcase to you,
in crypto, this does play out quite a lot,
and it is quite scary, so hold your breath,
but there is a bear flag, right? Right
now, the bear flag is playing up. It would be invalidated if you can start to get back above
1340. So this is where the risks come into play, right? A lot of these charts are presenting these
really scary bear flags. I'm not saying this is absolutely going to happen, but it's something
you have to entertain as possible, right? That's the most important thing as a trader is never think that
you know exactly what's going to happen. Look at things from a probabilistic standpoint. Is this
possible? Well, it's in a downtrend and it's a pretty strong downtrend. So is it possible? Of
course, it's possible, right? Is it likely? I don't think so. I don't think it's too likely
because for that to play out,
you'd need to see another 92% drop.
So probably not gonna happen, unlikely, right?
But it's possible.
It's always possible.
The alternative is I'd rather treat this
as a swing failure,
which came perfectly into this level over here.
You hit that key zone that we're
looking for, break back above, move up to about 14, 15, come back down into this just around $12.
And then you can start to say that's your deviation and you can look for the long trade,
right? Okay. So that's what we're looking at over there. What else have we got? Let me know in the
comments if there is anything else that you do want to see.
How's Casper doing?
We haven't looked at Casper for a while.
Still a very, very long-term downtrend, still strong towards the downside.
Similar to so many of these charts, you have swept the previous month's low, right?
So if you've swept the previous month's low, you can always zoom in on a lower timeframe to try and look for a little bit of an entry over here.
Look, if it comes back
down, starts to test the previous month's low at about 0.055, you could easily take a long trade
with a stop loss below. So there may be some long trades, at least in terms of relief rallies that
we can be looking at for the future. Let's quickly look at Fartcoin, right, which had an absolutely
enormous move. Let's see how that one's looking up. Where is it?
It is Fartcoin, right?
That's had the big move.
Yes, there we go.
Let's just check.
We'll go back to that.
Do I not already have this one charted?
Okay, we'll go to the one on, let's go to,
okay, it's not written like that.
That's a problem.
It's the full name.
There we go.
We have it.
Fartcoin.
Okay, there we go.
This is Fartcoin, right?
So this is a pretty sizable move, right?
It is definitely at least experiencing a bit of a relief rally.
Areas that you need to be careful of is a sweep above the previous month's high.
Here's the previous month's high.
If you sweep that previous month's high and deviate, that says that the relief is over
and you open up the short trade.
Why?
Well, that is your prior support, support, support.
Therefore, your next test of that level,
you'd be looking for resistance.
So I'd be zooming in on a low timeframe.
And since the directional bias
for the rest of the market
is more downtrending and short,
you should expect that this won't be too different, right? So don't
get too excited. You know, it held the previous month's low, rallied to the previous month's high.
If you sweep that previous month's high into this price zone that was resistance over here,
that would actually mean I wouldn't just take the short blindly, but if it moves up and then
swing fails like that, right? Puts in a high, puts in a lower
high, that's where you start to take the short trade. So I'll map it out for you so it's a little
bit cleaner over here. You know you're looking at something like this, right? Watch in the coming
days, it may be put in a big spike, maybe even rally as high as like 80 cents, but if you put
in a sharp reaction towards the downside, set in another lower high over there, that's where you
look for the short trade, trade it back down towards the previous month set in another lower high over there, that's where you look for the short trade,
trade it back down towards the previous month's low.
That would be a great trade,
especially if the broader market is still risk-off.
Okay, cool, what else, what else, guys?
Let me know in the comments.
I'm keeping an eye out on the comment section.
For those of you that do wanna learn more,
remember you can always join Whale School.
The link is in the description below.
It's completely free to join if you use one of the exchange links below. All right, cool. Pepe,
I see there are some requests on Pepe. It looked a little bit promising over here as it broke this
downsloping trend line, held that level, ran to the previous month's high, and now it's come down.
So I guess keep an eye out as well on a potential swing failure pattern.
If things go risk off again and you sweep that previous month's low,
reclaim, that might open up a bit of a range trade.
You can trade it to TP1 at the mid range,
TP2 at the range high over there.
That's kind of what you're looking at.
Okay.
All right, cool.
Generally speaking, guys,
when you break out of high time frame ranges which is
what we saw in bitcoin you then enter into the start of a new trending move and then you'll
re-establish a new trading range after that downtrend now bitcoin has lost a key range level
right this was your range right this was your range between the let's just make them both pink
so between the two pink levels over here um there we go this was your range between the let's just make them both pink so between the two pink levels
over here um there we go this was your trading range you started to lose that trading range this
was our first sign in the markets that something different is happening right um now we need to see
if it holds this if you do start to lose this level that's where we know that we're in big big
big trouble right so we'll find out um soon. Other than that, I mean, I think,
you know, just keep your eyes out on the markets. You can always look at banter bubbles as well in
the newsroom section over here. Keep an eye out. They're usually first to showcase if, you know,
China says something specific under the newsroom section. See once the president of China actually
comes out with if he's gonna back down or not.
If he's not, probably that's where you get the next leg down
in both crypto and equities, right?
But I do think we're approaching peak fear,
which means at some point we're gonna put in that relief.
So all the links are below
for everything that you guys need.
That is it from me.
Thank you all so much for watching.
The rest of you, I'll see you in Whelroom later today.
I hope everyone has a safe and steady day out there. I'll catch you on the next one and much for watching. The rest of you, I'll see you in Whelroom later today. I hope everyone has a safe and steady day out there.
I'll catch you on the next one.
And cheers for now.
