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Crypto Markets In Trouble! This Dump Could Become BIGGER Than You Think!
Recorded: April 5, 2025 Duration: 0:45:19Space Recording
Short Summary
In today's discussion, the focus is on the significant decline in the stock market and its implications for the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin's resilience amidst turmoil. Analysts explore trends indicating potential decoupling from traditional equities, while also examining historical data to predict future movements.
Full Transcription
or they're decoupling from the stock market.
That's what we're going to discuss in today's show.
We're going to have a look at all things stock market related
as well as chart related for the crypto markets
because there's a lot to be covering in today's show.
Smash the like button, hit the bell notification
and subscribe to the channel.
If you're not already subscribed,
it really, really helps us get the show content out there.
And you can see the absolute sea of red
specifically within the stock market, right?
And I think this was definitely one of the few channels out there,
at least on my show, where I did warn that this could be coming for the stock market.
And we've actually hit a lot of the targets.
So we're going to have a look at what that means for crypto,
because we were using the stock market support levels as a key indication
for where Bitcoin may be.
But Bitcoin holding up, right?
Definitely, definitely holding up amidst what's currently happened within the stock market
and has created for a very, very interesting environment.
And I've made a tweet over here, which might be a little bit controversial for many out there,
but I said buying the S&P 500 or Nasdaq right here is probably better risk to reward than Bitcoin or crypto.
And in today's show, I'm going to cover exactly why I'm saying that.
And I'll allow for you to weigh up the risks, right? And you make a decision for yourself.
I'm simply going to show you where the probabilities lie as to what may potentially happen next. And then it's up to you, right? Up to you to make your own decision making
for where you're going to play the market, right? Remember, 2025 has really started to build into that narrative
of traders' paradise and investors' hull, right?
And this is why I make this kind of a statement.
This is not necessarily looking at five, 10 years out.
I'm not making the statement in relation to that,
but more in the short term, right, over the next coming days, weeks,
and maybe even possibly months, right?
So let's get
straight into it we've hit our intended target first target that we had was the 50 percent of
the week many people thought that i was crazy for saying that and look at that it unfolded really
really quickly over there we first started to get bearish on the stock market over here based on the
bearish divergence that was forming with price putting in higher highs and high lows but
lower highs over here and the momentum oscillators such as the rsi and as soon as we began to break structure within this region over here and we lost 6 000 we said risk off risk off we got to 5
000 8 5900 we said risk off start to get risk back on if you can reclaim 6 000 and look at what's
happened right straight immediate nuke towards the downside the stock market has dropped i know the to get risk back on if you can reclaim 6,000 and look at what's happened, right? Straight,
immediate nuke towards the downside. The stock market has dropped. I know the stock markets are closed today. I'm coming to bringing you crypto love and wisdom on a Saturday morning, right? So
again, that's why I smashed the like button, guys. But I think there's a lot of important things to
cover, right? So we said risk off until such time as you can reclaim the breakdown level over here,
which means that you need to get back above that $6,000 level. And since that call that we made, look at this is
unbelievable. The stock market has since then dropped 15%. And we said we're calling for a
reversion back to the mean, the mean reversion, that being towards the 200 week moving average,
which is about 4,700, where you should find some absolute massive
support, right?
So why do I say risk to reward is better over here versus Bitcoin?
Well, we've hit some of those key levels, but Bitcoin is still holding up.
And this is the game that you have to play.
You have to ask yourself the question, has crypto really deviated away from the stock
market, right?
Has the decoupling taken place with exactly one day's worth of price action?
Well, that's what we need to go into
because this is a question that many are asking, right?
Let's quickly go to those tweets over there.
You know, is Bitcoin lagging equities,
you know, and going to nuke later
or is it showing relative strength
and is it going to get sent?
You're seeing a lot of people asking this question, right?
You know, is crypto lagging or is there relative strength? And right now, it seems most people think that
we're decoupling. So we'll get into that. But we have a lot of data and things that we can look at
specifically for the stock market with much more history than what crypto has, right? And what that
history suggests to us is that after you get two consecutive days of negative 4.5% declines,
this is essentially what you're looking at. So let's quickly just change the viewpoint for you there. But when we look at
one of the worst days that we've seen for the stock market, which is what we've currently seen,
this is historically going all the way back from the Great Depression, 1929. This is what you can
look at, you know, on average, what your returns look like, you know, one day later,
you're looking at about a 2.95% bounce, two days later, a 4.29% bounce. And then things start to
get interesting as you start to push towards one month, three months, and one year later, right?
So 7%, six months later, you're looking at 17.56% upside move or bounce from following those levels.
And one year later, about a 15.61% bounce.
Now, this is the challenging question, right? Is if equities are to bounce into the next week,
which again, is very, very possible. If you look over here, again, it shows one week later,
what are you looking at? About a 2.63% bounce. What does that mean for crypto? Will crypto bounce
alongside the stock market, right? This is what we need to be looking at.
These are some of the important questions
that we need to ask, right?
And if you look at Seth, he says,
yeah, you know, I knew I should have.
This is the commentary that a lot of people say,
I knew I should have bought the flash crash,
bought the European debt crisis,
bought China hard landing scare,
bought Brexit fears,
bought the longest government shutdown in history,
bought the COVID plunge,
bought the fastest rate hike cycle since the 1980s and then this remains the question right bought the tariff
torture of 2025 so you let me know in the comments what are you doing um let me know over there i am
monitoring the comment section um i think that there's a lot of important things to look at so
since we believe based on these statistics that in the next week or so, there should be a bounce, you know, what is the better trade to take? Has crypto decoupled the
world? Crypto play catch up. There's also a poll that you can vote on over there. You know,
stock market has in order to hit that level, another 6% downside move. Now, I don't necessarily
think that's going to play out in one candle, you may bounce first, but structure has been broken,
right? This is now a major major
order block that led to the breakdown which is going to act as tough resistance in the future
and you might first see a big bounce like that and then later on drop down into those low levels
and then that might be the end of the correction and things reload and the whole trump tariff fears
and global trade wars starts to diminish as a narrative and things start to pick up and hopefully look good, right?
So you have a couple of decisions
when it comes to the markets.
I'll outline what your options are
and then you make the decision
in terms of what you think is the best outcome, right?
So ultimately, you know,
we showed extreme risk off in this environment over here.
And that means in order for the market
to get back into strength,
you know, we would still theoretically be able to buy back with a confirmation that the trend is looking strong below where we initially exited, which is an amazing position to be in. You have
QQQ, which has gone through level one. It's approaching level two, which comes in at 413.
But I said the strongest level of support is going to be coming in again um at that 200 week moving average and i would expect a massive massive bounce at the very very
least into that region i showed you multiple times on the daily time frame as well before this whole
move happened we actually outlined the potential for the short trade and there it was right
basically fulfilling the full tp let's just quickly change the style and coloring over here so you can
see it a little bit better so it will uh brighten that up over there this was the trade that we
outlined over here so look at that basically fulfilled that trade and that was based off of
the bear flag that you were seeing perfect bear flag over there price breaking towards the downside
and now almost fulfilling that trade now you can probably start to look to trade in the opposite
direction looking for a long so for those of you that went to crypto friendly place um and a crypto native place to trade
where you can still trade equities you know i can recommend btcc um if you look at our favorites
list over here we have all the various different stocks right we got apple um we got uh coinbase
we got gold we got meta we got microstrategy n NVIDIA, S&P 500, and Tesla.
A lot of these I'll start to look for long trades on.
So that was the short trade that we gave you.
Let me know in the comments if you did take it.
If you did, congratulations,
you should be up massively on that trade, right?
We have Tesla over here as well.
So there's Tesla coming back down over here.
I think personally for me on Tesla,
I'd wait, this is the potential as well
for another bear flag to
form which could drop Tesla down to lower levels I don't want to talk about those lower levels yet
let's take it one step at a time the first level of interest depending on when it hits would be at
this price level so you know if it came in next week up could be 160 if it loses that level you're
talking about around 112 which is going to be major support. And then I'd start to look to get long over there. Here's Coinbase, right?
You've now broken down that multi-year uptrend,
this upsloping trend line over here.
You have officially broken that down.
This has been a parallel channel as well,
which has been respected for Coinbase.
So ultimately, losing those key levels
does at least call for a reversion back towards the mean,
also known as the strong horizontal regions,
like 115, 116.
Let's quickly see on the weekly, has it lost?
You don't have much price issue over here,
but you can see that is where it started
to print the 200-week moving average.
So we'll see.
If next week you can start to reclaim this,
maybe that was just a shakeout.
But alternatively, right now,
it still
risks towards the downside right so s&p 500 nasdaq looking to come into some pretty key levels and
again um you can trade that on btcc the link is below right use that link below if you do want to
sign up because you can actually claim a sign up bonus and they're currently running a trading
competition where you can win 60 000 worth of prizes so you can trade everything over here crypto stocks forex pairs commodities um everything is on this exchange
right cool let's continue now this is very interesting right because usually when we see
a breakdown in the dxy the dollar index uh which has come down very very hard um we also managed
to call the top on this right we're looking for the deviation right over here we identified the
series of lower lows so there we go We broke structure over there at that exact
point. We said lower lows, watch for the lower high. This could be leading into the deviation.
The only thing that changed over here or didn't work out according to plan is we said this may,
right? We never say certainties, but we said the deviation over here may cause a move in risk on assets. And then we
put in the keyword, aness, right? Aness, this is a movement away from the US markets due to trade
wars. And that's exactly what happened, right? We saw the market moving out of the US, the way that
you get a breakdown in the DXY, which a the dollar measured against a basket of other assets
around the world it means that the dollar is weakening against these other currencies around
the world like the euro yen etc and consequently the stock market moves down with that that's quite
a scary sign for the us and it means that money is moving out of the us of course of course it's got
everything to do with the uh tariffs and trade wars on. So we'll see if this drops down a little bit further.
But the dollar coming into key support over here, around 100, right?
So major, major moves over here.
Oftentimes, you see this deviation will run all the way into the other side before recapturing this and then putting in a big move towards the upside.
But the craziest thing is you're not really seeing uh equities run which is absolutely unbelievable right so s p 500 after the vix reaches 45 um where does that place the s p
500 right very very interesting to look at as well because this has been one of the metrics that i
wanted to utilize to determine when was the optimal point to go long on crypto and that's where we're
going to show the deviations where
things haven't worked out exactly in accordance to how they previously would have. And this is
where you've got that tough decision-making process to go through, right? So if we look
at the VIX, you know, historically, what we have seen is when the VIX hits those low levels,
and you look a week later, you know, then the VIX starts to drop aggressively following that,
which means that you get an opposite move in the stock market.
Generally, when the VIX spikes, you find major, major lows, right?
So I've actually marked it off when we looked at this previously throughout some of the other crashes that we had.
For example, you know, COVID.
We also had to look at the one in August over here where the VIX spiked above 50.
And we said that was a major buy the dip opportunity.
And now we're doing the same thing, right?
But notice the deviation the deviation is this that the stock market over here let's just
quickly expand that if we look at the stock market over here the VIX is lower than what it was
previously but price um has dropped lower right I mean the VIX excuse me yeah that's correct so
the deviation let's just highlight that for you the The VIX is lower, but price is also lower. You
would expect that price should have still found a high low, and that's showing you a major shift
in the stock market structure over there, right? So things could get worse. You could see a deeper
capitulation within the market, and that's something we need to be careful of. And another
thing that I look at as well is the relationship between Bitcoin and the VIX. So you divide Bitcoin by the VIX.
And what you found is that historically,
every major test, this is COVID lows, right?
Every major test, this is 2015,
you found a major, major low before leading into a massive bull market.
You had COVID lows before leading
into that parabolic advancement for a couple of months
for all of crypto.
And now you're fast approaching that level once again.
We haven't yet hit it. So I'm looking for the reaction into that we've come very very very close we got about a 28
downside move still that's not 28 downside in bitcoin but 28 in the relationship between bitcoin
and the vix which means you're coming very very close right which means typically when the vix
spikes into those levels you look for a major low in the stock market in accordance with these sets of data. And simultaneously, you also find a major low
with the VIX, right? So keep an eye out on that. It is noteworthy leading into next week.
And now let's get into crypto. And this is where you have to make some big decisions,
and I'll show you why, right? Crypto, 24-hour volume, still theoretically relatively low
with only $237 million worth of liquidations.
You know, you actually got the majority of those
coming from the short side,
only 1 million extra,
119 million from the short,
118 million from the long side.
And that's the question, right?
This is what's making things difficult
is people think that crypto has decoupled.
Now, we were looking for the vix to spike to those levels the stock market to break down to the intended levels that it has now hit and we said when it does simultaneously you should see bitcoin
trading at 70 to 72 000 but it's not bitcoin is holding up so somebody is propping up the price
over here um it could be michael say. It also could be GameStop, which raised
about $1.5 billion. And they said they may allocate that into crypto. So there's probably
some big buyers that are holding prices up. We can look under the hood to see exactly what's
happening with these CVDs and the flows and see where the trap is going to be formed. Because
there's going to be a trap, right? Either equities are going to bounce next week and the crypto
market is going to mark up
in a big way with equities, meaning it's already bottomed and some big buyers have fulfilled their
positions beforehand. Or this is a major, major trap and the crypto markets are going to lag
equities and catch up next week, meaning you should see a drop down into that 70k region.
Let me know. I want to know your thoughts. And you can see the reason
that I brought up these two tweets over here
is because I wanted to see
alternative data sets, right?
Of course, we're looking at Ansem,
36,400 views,
and a lot of votes, 5,200 on this tweet.
These are different audiences.
And you can see the results
are very, very similar, right?
60% believe we're showing relative strength
that we're decoupling,
which means the market likes to wreck the majority of the people most of the time. And
that means that the max wreckage probably comes with a downside move. Hence the thumbnail that
suggests maybe you could see a capitulation, right? And if we look over here at max as well,
well, it's the same story, right? Very, very similar results. Look at that 60, call it 60,
40, 63, 36 over here. Crypto is lagging.
Some say relative strength. Let's go to your results and see what you guys have voted, right?
So is Bitcoin and crypto lagging to the downside on the next move? And you can vote over here. No
BTC and crypto is bottom first. Or yes, it's going to drop hard. Let's click and see where have the
majority voted. So
I guess I have a pretty bearish audience. You guys have been following me. You've been listening. So
probably the reason over here that you guys are 60-40 in the opposite direction because you know
your stuff, right? You know that the trends are down and you know that there's higher probability
that things fall through the floor. So congratulations for the rest of you. You're
not wrong necessarily. 42% of you said BTC and the rest of you. You're not wrong necessarily.
42% of you said BTC and crypto are bottom first. You could absolutely be right. You 100% could be
right. It's a game of probability. So the thing is, you have a lot of bottom callers. If you pull
up the tweet list over here and you have a look over here, this is literally what it looks like,
right? Bitcoin is actually decoupling, right? Bitcoin putting a tear in my eyes right now. The entire global economy is melting down in real time. And Bitcoin
is just basically flat for the past week, feeling like a proud parent right now. These are people
that, of course, long on the market, right? BT strength in this chaos feels very, very bullish.
BTC relative strength, unignorable right now. Bitcoin is digital gold, higher, send it higher,
right? You know, this is actually wild to see for the first time, Bitcoin decoupling right before our eyes.
Well, we've spoken about the decoupling.
I actually brought it up on Friday.
I know many of you didn't catch that show because I was live on another channel.
But we went through the decoupling, comparing Bitcoin to QQQ, which is most commonly correlated to.
And you can see, according to this, it's still very, very, very
correlated, right? If you look at the Pearson correlation coefficient, while the closer it is
to one, the more closely correlated it is, the closer it is to negative one on the downside,
the more inversely correlated is, which would mean one goes up and the other goes down. And
according to this, one goes up, the other goes up, one goes down and the other goes down. And according to this, one goes up, the other goes up, one goes down and the other goes down and there is no decorrelation. You need to see this happen for
months, weeks to months at a time to consider that it has fully decorrelated. So I have to take the
more pessimistic stance. Even if we have a look, let's have a look on the last 30 days. And the
last 30 days in recent times, it started to come down over here but again i said
you need to see weeks and weeks to even months of this which means we have to use the correlation
time frame on a high time frame and that's showing extreme correlation extreme extreme
correlation which means the probability is much more significant that you're going to see lagging equities and crypto is going to nuke.
It's lagging equities and it's probably going to nuke, right? That's the truth. That is the
probabilities. You choose your path, right? So this is where the decision making comes into play,
right? Let's pull up a little bit of a chart over here. Let's go into one of these charts
and just pull out our drawing tool, right? So this is where you have to decide for yourself.
What do you wanna do?
Okay, so we have a couple of options, right?
I did drop this in the Discord yesterday.
Our primary target that we wanted was around that.
We're gonna go with 73K,
but we were looking for between 68 and $73,000, right?
So option number one is you place your limit order there
and you have a chance that you miss it, right? So option number one is you place your limit order there and you have a chance that you
miss it, right? Option number two is that, which kind of lines up with option number one, because
if price does break out higher and Bitcoin can reclaim $88,000, then you've got a break of
structure, right? That downtrend structure, there we go, would have broken. You would have broken
structure over there at 88K, get back above 88K.
Then you buy the next high low, which means you're probably getting in at around, you
know, 79, 80K anyway.
And that lines up with this.
These are your options, right?
So option one, set your limit orders over there and lining that up with option one.
It's all the same option, really.
If price breaks higher, then you remove those limit orders, and then you market buy at that high price at the breakup structure.
Option number two.
So let's cross out option number two because it's already option number one.
That's option number one.
Option number two is that you just buy right now.
You just say, okay, cool.
Ultimately, crypto is decoupled with one day's worth of evidence.
It's decoupled and it's time to go max long crypto
and you take the chance.
What is your probabilities that this is gonna work out?
You know, I could put it at 50-50,
but even that would be generous to the bulls
and it's quite literally a lie
because we have enough evidence of this
that nine times out of 10, I don't have
the data set over here, but I looked at it before the show. I should have brought up for you guys
nine times out of 10 that we've seen the so-called decoupling in inverted commas.
It hasn't been a decoupling and crypto nukes towards the downside soon after. Okay. Those
are your options, right? These are your options up to you. Let me know. What are you going to do?
Let me know in the comments what you guys are going to do.
I'd really love to know.
Option number three still kind of lines up with option number one, which is that you
just do nothing.
But that's option number one, essentially, where you're waiting for breakup structure
and high prices.
So I'm probably opting for option number one for myself.
I haven't decided to ape into anything.
I still remain 100% in cash. And that's just because I think I need to ape into anything. I still remain 100% in cash.
And that's just because I think I need to protect my capital.
And if I were to try and, you know, snipe a low or buy the dip, go back to this tweet
over here, I think that there's a higher probability that, you know, crypto is going to catch up
to equities and make a downside move. And therefore,
my better bet is to buy equities instead for a quick bounce, because we have this more statistics
on that, right? So this is kind of what I'm looking at. It's up to you. It's up to you.
Those are the probabilities, right? Now, we can have a look at the charts, right? A lot of people
over here looking at this, right? Really nice strength by BTC during this macro panic.
Adam backed, right?
Bitcoin decoupling, finally.
I was thinking the coupling was fake.
Maybe market makers using Bitcoin market storage,
shortage of fiat liquidity to auto-correlate Bitcoin,
noticeable in US market open.
You have Chris Berniski as well.
BTC continuing to outperform the NASDAQ,
could be due to treasury bids, or it could be telling us something, you know, as the most sensitive macro asset, which could be true.
That could be true as the most sensitive macro asset.
It could be sniffing out that liquidity is coming.
It could be, right?
We oftentimes see Bitcoin dump before the equities do, and therefore it could bottom
before the equities do as well but
again you're playing with fire to gamble it's a bit of a gamble right and we got crypto face over
here using his market cipher b and um you know uh i think he's a great trader so i'll definitely
give him that bottom is in folks so many mid high time frames looking good support held during
today's dump bottom is in um boys and girls he says again over there so again it's just
about the probabilities right let's start from the top and move our way down right high time frames
six month candles i dropped this in wellroom yesterday i had a look at this i found a very
very interesting i said we've never had a bull run before with more than five green six monthly
candles in a row okay which would mean that if this six-month candle does
turn green, we've got two months and now 26 days left to go, then we would have reached the typical
limit for bull cycle, right? So usually that's how many you see in a row for six-month candles.
We've now done four, one, two, three, four. Look at the 2017 one. That last one was extreme, right?
Again, the reason that I'm bringing this up is I just want to emphasize again, this is for at least the rest of this year, traders paradise, investors hull,
because even if you do catch this move as a trader, of course, we're going to catch it,
we're going to jump straight in. But investors will probably hold on to hopium that you're going
to extend beyond into 500,000, 600,000. That's even if we do get that type of move,
and they're going to get absolutely rinsed, right? But according to the statistics and the data,
well, we had four green in cycle one, four green in cycle three, and so far we're on four green.
It was only cycle two, which was the 2016-17 cycle, which produced five green candles in a row.
And if we did get that, it would mean that basically we have to rally for
the next two and a half months, or it's actually about three months, right? Because we got two
months, 20, there's 31 days in a month. So two months and 26 days left to go. The next three
months, you basically have to mark up aggressively, which means that the chances are pretty high that
if you haven't already put the top in, you're probably going to put the top in within the next three months. All right. These are just facts, right? This is the
stuff that we're looking at. Volume continues to diminish over here. It has put in, in the short
term, a little bit of an upside move. But again, we had a look at this over here. You can see based
on the liquidations, it is relatively low, you know, broadly speaking. Okay. Now let's look at price on some of the low timeframes,
like on the hourly, right?
You can see over here, you know,
price has been trying to put in higher lows and higher highs
in the very, very short term on the hourly, right?
But you can see over here, spot is selling.
So how is price doing that?
Well, it's because of leverage.
Leverage is trying to prop price up over here.
These are leverage traders, right?
The white line is inclining,
so moving towards the upside with price.
Spot is selling.
I always prefer to go with the spot sellers
because even if the leverage traders get their way,
eventually they're going to take profit.
And when they take profit,
if they don't get liquidated, they take profit.
Then you're going to see prices come down
and in alignment with what we're seeing on the spot market, right?
And you can see over here, look at that.
Look at that massive buildup.
The funding rates on the hourly going very, very positive.
Weekend traders fomoing in.
These guys usually get punished.
Their punishment could come sometime tomorrow on Sunday, right?
So you can see open interest rising.
You've got the funding rate rising.
And we have the evidence over here of the spot coming down, right? CVD spot is coming down. So
a lot to look at. I know some of you may be like, what the hell, bro? You're talking about so much
different stuff. I don't know what's going on. For those of you that don't, I do cover this stuff
in Whale School, right? If you go into the Whale School course content over here,
and you specifically go through to this section where i cover liquidity right you'll find all of this
information so go there click on liquidity you'll see we have a lot of valuable information over
here you can do quizzes you do all sorts of stuff but um you know identifying levels of ranges and
liquidity etc we go through all of this course content For those of you that want to take your trading
to the next level, you want to go a step further,
there is a link in the description below
that will take you through to Whale School.
We've already started, right?
We're in the middle of a cohort, cohort number 13.
Proud to say we've had over 60,000 people
who have done this course.
If you want to be one of those,
eventually there's going to be a price point on it.
But for now, you don't have to pay the $2,000 price.
If you use the link in the description below, you can join for free.
23 days to go before we start with the next cohort, right?
Where you can learn how to trade in less than 10 days, right?
Less than 10 days.
So use that link below and join into WellSchool.
All right, let's continue.
So Bitcoin, according to this chart,
you know, if I wasn't sitting there on Twitter, on YouTube every day, because this is part of
at least my job is, you know, reading the newsroom, I need to read the newsroom, I need to see
what all the other analysts think to create and compile these shows. But if I was simply
a trader in my mom's basement, and I had no social interactions and didn't speak to a single soul
and I simply just pulled up my chart like this, it wouldn't even be a question of how bearish
things are, right? My charts would just say we're going down to 68 to 72k. It's as simple as that.
But based on all the different personality types and the, you know, all of you guys that are over
here that want both takes,
I present the data from both perspectives. But again, if I were just somebody in my mom's basement,
I would be saying that price is coming down over here. It's not even debatable, right? I mean,
you just have a complete strong rejection candle over here. And this tells you that things are
incredibly bearish, right? And therefore that crypto is most likely to uh at least catch up to what equities
have done which has moved towards the downside so that chart is bearish um until such time still
as you can break back above the pink box and that remains the same right you did get a little bit of
a spike up in volume but it's really not much overall this is still a declining trend the volume
profile is still rejecting price over here and it's still calling for a move into at least the volume gap, right? Look at that volume gap over there. You can see
this. It's going to suck you into the zone over here, right? And then that's where the action
will take place, right? We'll see if price can hold up. We're still targeting the fair value gap,
$72,500. Again, if you want to learn more about that, all you have to do is jump into whale school. Okay. This is me trying to look for a bullish outcome in the market. Me looking for
a bullish outcome in the market would still be this. It would still be calling for a drop down
over here to the bottom of the falling wedge. And falling wedges are traditionally bullish chart
patterns. So it's called it a correction within an overall bull side move. And then we'll see what
the bulls are made of. If they can hold price up over here and break through these levels. We've outlined all the key
levels along the way that bulls need to get above. First it was 95, then it was 92, then it was $88,000.
Well, now it's $88,000. That's the level to reclaim, right? But the thing is, even with
reclaiming this $88,000 level, you're still going to hit into resistance. This is an SR flip, right?
Support, support, support, support.
Resistance, next test, probable resistance,
and ultimately prices are going to come down, right?
So as Otto says over here,
I'm so tired of winning.
And did you say thank you?
You better say thank you.
Let me know in the chat.
Say thank you in the chats over there.
All right, so we're still waiting for that.
Now, of course, guys, it could be invalidated,
but I have learned over time
that it's best to side with the trend.
And that's why that saying is,
the trend is your friend until the end of the trend.
Just remain with the trend.
Which way is the trend?
I mean, it's not rocket science.
The trend is literally towards the downside
and form of lower lows and lower highs.
When that trend intercepts
with a key horizontal support,
that is usually where you can at least try and buck the trend.
But we haven't hit that key horizontal support yet.
So if we do get a bit more of a pump over the course of today with the stubborn bulls,
then you can see this week over here.
You know, there's a possibility that you come for that inefficiency 50% of that week,
which has moved into
like 86 000 and then you just smack it down into next week uh or on sunday right so we'll keep an
eye on that what's interesting about that is if you look at the liquidity as well there is some
liquidity building overhead at 85 300 got 50 million dollars almost worth of um short traders
stop losses that are there so there are shorts that caught this move.
And you may just come up and they put their stop losses too tight. You may just come up and take some of that, which would be the equivalent of testing 50% of that week,
and then you drop it back down, right? So that's what we're looking at over there, right?
That is your liquidity. The USDT dominance is still broadly in an uptrend with higher highs
and high lows caught within this parallel channel. And we're still looking for that 6.24% move. When you look at the altcoins,
you know, altcoins against BTC are still getting absolutely smashed. In fact, the last panic that
we had, which came on that week of early February, right, when there was absolute carnage within the
markets, well, we're fast approaching that, which means altcoins are getting obliterated.
So interesting, interesting stuff within the market. We should look at total as well.
You can see this, right? Total over here. You know, this is really the danger zone. If you
start to come below this, I wrote it as the dead zone DED, dead zone in crypto. That's 2.15 trillion,
right? So starting to get into dangerous territory over here for the total cryptocurrency market cap. I guess you can try and draw this line as conservatively as possible.
When drawing a trend line, I prefer to see as many touch points into the body of the candle
without breaking the body. It's okay if you break some of the wicks. So that's probably the line of
best fit, which means you really don't want to take out that low from the 10th of March, right,
on the total cryptocurrency market cap. And especially you don't want to take out that low from the 10th of March, right, on the total cryptocurrency market cap.
And especially, you don't want any closing candles below this level.
You also are coming into, you know, a demand area, right?
You can see this candle over here is a demand area.
This is major demand.
So, therefore, you probably want to see price bounce out of this zone.
So, we'll have an answer soon enough as to, you you know whether this is still a bull market or not
i said we haven't been able to answer that question yet again guys for those of you that
want to commit to your education and you want to learn more about the markets um join whale school
right sign up join whale school we cover all of this over there if you look in the link in the
description below as well you'll see l bank over here you can skip the KYC and get your 50% signup deposit
or your trading bonus for joining.
So there it is.
This will give you a user ID once you sign up.
Every exchange comes with a user ID.
That user ID will get you into Whale School
and all the other schools, right?
Not just my school.
There is over here a lot of other schools, right?
So if you look over there, there we go.
We've got Sniper School, Whale School, Crown School,
and the Trading Accelerator School, and more and more of these schools will be added in the future and
that single trading link the user id will get you access uh forever for free so you never have to
pay the trading fee okay cool um there's a few more things i want to get into right so that is
the total cryptocurrency market cap let's have a look at some of the altcoins. So let me know in the
comments if there is anything specific that you want to have a look at. And we can go through
everything, right? Okay, let's see this. Here's a question. You know, if it is lagging, why? If it
is lagging, it's because Michael Saylor is probably defending those levels, right? We can go to here,
Saylor average buys.
Let's have a look.
There is something over here
that you can utilize.
Where is that?
On which thing is,
I feel like it was on his website.
Here it is, this one.
I think it's this one,
portfolio tracker.
So yeah, we can have a look
at Michael Saylor's buys, right?
So these are,
let's see the buys in dollar terms, right? So we, the buys in dollar terms, right? So we put the
buys in dollar terms, right? So the bigger the green, the bigger the buy. I mean, this is
problematic, right? Of course, this is why he's going to be defending this level because he will
be massively underwater. Like you can see the green dotted line over here is basically his average
buys, right? He keeps bringing the average
up because he raises more and more money and buys more and more as price moves higher and higher.
So therefore, his average buyers are giving us a price level over here. It's just under $70,000.
So that means if we collapse down to those low levels, which I've outlined as targets,
which we should already be at, he'll be underwater, which is why he keeps putting
in bigger and bigger buys. I wonder if you can zoom in on this. Let's quickly see over here. Can we zoom in? There
we go. Look at that. I mean, these are enormous buys. He's putting in bigger buys at the highs
than he is at the lows. I get it. Everyone probably only wants to give him money when
things are looking good and at the top. So I guess if he had access to all this money,
he probably would have taken those buys at the lows. But I guess if he had access to all this money, he probably would have taken those buys at the lows.
But I guess people naturally,
same as you guys on YouTube, right?
No offense to any of you
because you guys are here right now.
But what typically happens
is the YouTube views increase
as price increases and we reach a top.
And then it decreases at the most important time
when everybody should be there watching.
They're not.
It's absolutely insane.
That's why.
Make sure you turn the bell notification on, right?
Follow me on X.
Follow me on Twitter.
All the links are here below to my socials.
That way you can be in tune when something major happens within the markets, right?
So that's the answer.
To give that person an answer, I forgot your name.
Apologies.
But for the person that just asked,
you know, why is crypto lagging?
It could be because Michael Saylor has been buying.
What we should do is we should actually go through
to Michael Saylor's Twitter account.
And let's just quickly see something over here.
Saylor, let's quickly go to Saylor
and just do a quick scroll through.
Let's just see if he says anything over here.
Usually what he does, once he's bought,
he makes this specific see if he says anything over here. Usually what he does, once he's bought, he makes this specific tweet.
And he says, need more orange, which is usually over here, right?
Need more orange.
There we go.
That's what he means.
Need more orange on this chart.
That means that Sailor has bought.
So go to his Twitter and you look for that.
Then you'll know that he's bought, right?
How much does he tweet?
We've got the fourth.
So let's quickly say, as he said, anything over here recently? as he said, need more orange. We haven't seen it yet. If that tweet comes on Sunday, then
you know, on Monday, it's going to be announced that he bought. Okay. So there was the last one
that he had. He didn't, there we go. Look there. Stay orange. This is what he says. Exactly this.
Needs even more orange. Once he makes that tweet, you know that Michael Saylor just bought.
And that's the reason why price wouldn't be at 70K yet.
And if it goes to 70K, he's at break even.
Cool.
All right, let's get into some of the altcoins, right?
So I've been looking at a bunch of the altcoins.
Ether's coming very, very close to our levels over here.
Very, very simply, we've outlined
that Ether is in this like massive trading range.
There it is.
So therefore the trading range finds support over here.
Major support in the trading range will be around that $1,400 level.
And that's why we've been building that ETH position, right?
There it is.
There's the ETH arbitrage bot, which we've been building over there.
We also have a hedge position bot over here, which is both long and short at the same time,
just slowly accumulating, right, keeping us safe within the market but i actually want to try and
maybe open another one so i've been looking over here at um solana okay let's go back to solana
so this is one that i want to open this is using the the grid bots with pinex
um you know solana is really marked down very very hard and i was having a look at this as well
the previous time you know solana marked down massively, very hard. And I was having a look at this as well. The previous time, you know, Solana marked down massively.
If you look at that, there we go.
Let's just quickly highlight that.
So Solana marked all the way down about 71%.
And then it went and it put in a massive bounce, right?
First 71% and it bounced almost 90%.
So far, this has been almost the same, right?
So far, it's come down 63%. If Solana continues to
mark down, that would be the 74%, give or take, within that region, which means I kind of want
to scale into positions over here just for the mean reversion bounce, right? And you could easily
bounce into this as underside resistance over here, which would give you close to 100%, right?
Could be anywhere between about, I would say, like 90 and 140% move just off of that bounce.
So I've decided that I actually wanna open
another series of trades.
I was marking it out before the shows.
This is it, right?
I'm basically looking to buy into this green zone over here.
So between 68, I'm giving a couple of dollars,
give or take into a worst case scenario.
I'm not necessarily suggesting that it makes it all the way there.
Again, if you do look at my actual chart over here, I've highlighted,
you know, 77 will be super key support.
You probably start getting buying interest even before then as you sweep 100, right?
So if we do get a massive capitulation, I'm looking to scale in down over there,
and then I'm looking to offload on that bounce based on the concept of what I've just shown you, right? 70% drawdown. And then Solana
puts in a massive bounce of, you know, anywhere between 80 and 130%, right? And then we're looking
to exit into the red box. So you can either do a copy strategy where you're copying someone else's
bullish trends and the AI, or you can customize it. I'm going to add in the customized strategy, right? So my lowest price is 68 because that's the
area I want to buy into from here down to 68. My highest price I'm looking to go is probably about
189, right? 189 give or take. I want to exit that position over there. I'm going to put in 50 grids
for this trade over here. So it looks like that. You can see it's posted the that position over there. I'm going to put in 50 grids for this trade over here. So it looks like that.
You can see it's posted the grids over there.
So it's going to be buying on the way down.
And as price starts to bounce over there, it's going to start to exit.
I'm going to put in $2,500 on this trade.
First, I'm going to change the leverage.
I want a bit more volatility.
I'm going with 5x leverage over there.
And I'm putting in $2,500.
And that is the trade that I want right so let's create that let's just check everything so you got your pair Solano USDT long and I want to also
open up a few for example on Sui is another one that I'm interested in possibly on Sonic as well
which has extremely high volatility but sometimes sometimes this is the easiest, safest way
to manage your risk and enter into these trades
because you don't get greedy
where you single-handedly try and, you know,
front load the whole trade in one go, right?
As opposed to scaling in incrementally, slowly, safely,
which is what these grid bots help you to do.
So that's what I'm looking at over there.
I'm happy with all of this.
It looks good and it's been created.
There we go, ping and it's ready.
Okay, so Sol, I'm scaling into that.
I will be able to share this with you guys, right?
I think I can share this with you.
Just let me quickly see.
I will maybe put it onto the next show.
I think I might have to copy the link off of the let's just see it's probably
okay I'll create I'll create the link for you guys because if you look in the description we
already got the other two of you if you want to follow those there it is PINEX there we go
PINEX automate your trading strategy you have to sign up over there you actually get a sign up
bonus if you click that let's just see how much you're getting okay um there you go you're getting a thousand usdt right so just for signing up
registering um and completing a kyc immediately you get 50 and then for if you deposit ten thousand
dollars you'll get a thousand dollars which you can use to trade with right so that's the pinex
trading bot over there these other strategies are listed below so you don't have to go and manually create them.
If you want, you can just copy those.
But first you have to sign up
and then you can click copy.
And I'll make sure that I drop the new Solana one as well.
Let's have a look quickly
at some of the other coins over there
because I do want to create a few more, right?
Sui.
Okay, so here's going to be major key support for Sui.
So theoretically, you could open a similar trade on SUI
where you're looking for a possible sweep of the range lows, right?
So let me maybe just draw it up on the actual exchange.
Let's go over here.
Let's go futures, futures trading bot.
Let's have a look for SUI.
Okay, I think I'm going to open up the SUI one as well.
And this is if we do get that capitulation towards the downside,
then I expect some of these targets to be hit, right?
Because I do expect at some point
you're going to put in a bounce,
a mean reversion bounce.
So I'm going to be targeting this order block down here.
It's about 163 for SUI.
Let's grab our box over here.
This is kind of the area of interest.
You can see this was previously
a major, major support region over here for SUI.
So again, I'm not saying we're definitely going into that zone, but I'm interested to scale in
within this area, right? So that's the green box. That's the area that I'm looking to get long.
And the area that I'm looking to offload, and we're not getting greedy over here, right? We
simply just want to buy into the green box and offload into the next resistance, which you need
a lot of work to get back above this order block over here so i'm going to target the top side of
the order block um and it's going to look like this right so those are the areas right so we're
going to create this one as well and i'll make sure to share this with you guys um okay futures
trading grid let's create let's go to customize we on SUI, that's perfect. What is our low side?
140, right?
So we're going over there with a 140.
And then we're going to go on the high side over here
with 3.1, right?
3.1 over there.
Grid, so I'm going to do the same with 50.
And I'm going to put in one also 5X leverage on this,
take on a little bit more risk.
And we're also going to do the same,
just a 2,500 equity into risk. And we're also going to do the same just a 2500
equity into that. And let's create that. Okay, perfect. So we got those ones running. So we got
the two trades, right? So we'll check you guys say the polls are changing, right? We'll have a look
at the polls here as well. And then if there's any other requests, do let me know. So if you guys do
want to follow
along again use that link get your sign up bonus i'll update from the next show which is going to
be on monday for those of you that want to copy the sui and solana bots as well uh that will be
there um so uh yeah i i think that's the best i'll probably do it on monday show all right let's have
a look at the poll just do a quick update on the poll um all right so we got 44 of you believe that btc has bottomed right and 56 of you think that
we're going to drop hard interesting i think we'll have to see next week uh what else what
else let me know in the comments guys is there anything else out there um otherwise um i think
maybe that is it i'll catch you all on the next one. I hope you have a
great day, everyone. And I will see you on the next one. Cheers for now.
