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Crypto Plunges, Global stocks hit Circuit Breakers, ETH under 2017 peak
Recorded: April 7, 2025 Duration: 0:33:14Space Recording
Short Summary
In a turbulent market marked by significant declines in global equities and cryptocurrencies, discussions highlight potential rebounds, strategic partnerships in the Web3 space, and the growing interest in meme coins. As investors navigate volatility, the anticipation of stimulus measures and innovative developments in the crypto sector suggest a dynamic landscape ahead.
Full Transcription
Good morning. Good morning, everyone. GM, GM, and welcome to another episode of Omo Hour.
Today is Monday, April 7th, 2020.
We thought it might be Black Monday.
We had Black Thursday and Black Friday and then Black Sunday night.
It was setting us up for a rough start to the week.
Global markets crashing.
U.S. equities hitting bear market territory.
Crypto was falling.
But now Trump's telling everyone, don't be panicking.
And markets are starting to respond.
The question is, can we trust him or should we be panicking?
We're going to break it all down on today's show.
No Farouk.
He is traveling today, but we've got Mando in the house.
Mando, Jim, how are you holding up?
I'm holding up okay.
Yeah, I'm holding up okay.
I've actually traded pretty well the last few days,
so I've been relatively happy with how I did it.
So I've been relatively happy with how I did it.
But yeah, luckily we started bouncing as soon as the show went live.
Otherwise it would look to be a very stressed opening day of the week for us.
We can get into all that, but yeah.
We will. of the week for us. We can get into all that, but yeah.
We will.
The tone of the show, quite different starting at 10 a.m. versus how we started at 9.30.
Yes, very different.
You were tuning into a very different episode
of FOMO Hour.
Folks, it is going to be a tighter show here this morning,
but we are going to talk everything about these markets.
Stocks are falling Sunday night.
It looks like they're starting to rebound
despite Asia markets having, I think, one of their worst days of all time.
We had folks crashing down the timeline, including Bill Ackman, JP Morgan raising their recession
odds. Stanley Druckenmiller actually coming out and defending tariffs to a degree. And then Trump
has started to respond more and more here yesterday and now this morning. So we're going
to talk about that.
Crypto's potential relative strength.
Does anything look like a buy?
Or are we still selling all of the pumps and more?
So that's what we're going to talk about on today's show.
Before we dive in, shout out to our partners starting with Galaxis.
Galaxis is a Web3 platform empowering creators and brands
to build unstoppable communities with full ownership and independence trusted by icons like Donald Trump, Steve Aoki, Mike Tyson, and the NBA,
shaping together the future of engagement. And Wallet Connect is the connectivity network
shaping the future of on-chain UX. If you've connected to a Web3 app, you've seen Wallet
Connect. That blue logo, it's everywhere. An icon of trust in crypto as recognizable as
Visa at the checkout. So if you want to
learn more, follow at Wallet Connect on
X and Telegram to stay ahead of what's
next. We love our partners.
As always, now Mando, if you're ready,
let's get right into it.
Blue is the man,
macro daddy of the land.
Can you dig it gm everyone so yeah we had a pretty wild weekend to be honest crypto had been outperforming for a little bit um obviously on friday it was
um and then what you started to see on friday was that was like, oh, you know, we've had this good correlation to gold.
Even gold started to sell off.
So there was kind of this, oh, God, everything's about to nuke sort of market here.
And crypto seemingly got caught up in that as well. So you saw gold go down to 3K from, where was it, about 3,200 nearly.
And you saw global stock.
There was just, I think there was an expectation on Friday
that maybe deals would get done over the weekend.
You know, maybe there'd be a deal done with the UK,
with Canada, with Japan.
Like, maybe they'd be light at the end of the tunnel
for these sort of deals.
And it just didn't seem to be the case.
In fact, Trump's comment comment made some comments last night, which is like Europe owes the US reparations for previous
trade deficits. And it felt like they were maybe even drifting apart. This morning, you've seen a
slight softening from certain points. So you saw Europe say, hey, we're actually going to delay our retaliatory tariffs until later this month.
And then they said leave the door open maybe for a deal to be done.
You saw that Japan's prime minister said they'd had a call with the US and maybe that could lead to a deal. We saw that,
yeah, just a general like slight softening or at least indication that there could still be
a route open for deals, not really from Trump, but from other people, let's say, and some
indications, you know, from people in the administration that countries are reaching
out. We had the figure of 50 countries had reached out for deals.
And I think everyone just felt slightly better about the market after that.
This morning we were selling off and then there was a headline first thing, which was a little bit of a bounce, which is probably the bottom looking back at it, which is the Fed is holding a meeting today.
That is actually a fairly standard meeting for them.
So I wouldn't read too much into it,
although they have done special meetings like that around COVID
and also around the SVB collapse two years ago.
It doesn't look like that's what's happening today. But
undeniably, I'm sure they'll be talking about what's going on in the stock market. And broadly,
this was up until now, like rest of world stocks have broadly outperformed US stocks. Today was
the kind of the day that that changed. So Chinese stocks closed 13 percent um in hong kong dax um
was down 10 various different european stock indexes were down five to ten percent it was
it was definitely a bloodbath kind of across the board um and i think people were definitely
feeling it um definitely feeling it this morning and wondering how it's going to get fixed.
Now, what I've been saying is that the response to this has to be stimulus.
And I think that's what we're going to see. I think we're going to see already China said we're going to do some sort of stimulus, extra stimulus package this morning.
And so this idea that global liquidity will go higher feels likely to me um and we're going to see money
printing to kind of help deal with the uh help deal with the issues so yeah i think i think i'm
not feeling as bad about stuff this morning at least i can see we can have a relief rally i don't
think i don't think we're out of the woods by any means like Trump. Trump is still pointing to the idea that, you know,
there should be no trade deficits between countries.
And I feel like his base is also kind of like they're kind of behind him on
this. Like weirdly, this is,
the story has kind of changed to lowering tariffs to like this being a way to
like redistribute wealth
and it actually feels like that's
like empowering the Trump base so I don't
necessarily think that he
I've been thinking a lot about why this
is happening
and for me it feels as though
there's been like a
kind of implicit decision that
one of the only ways to improve income
inequality in the U.S.
is to try and basically cut trade deficits with external countries rather than tax damage.
And that's kind of where we're at.
Yeah, I think that's fairly spot on.
And I'm in a similar thought.
I've spent most of the weekend thinking about this and like, what are the scenarios from here?
And I don't think there's really any scenario where Trump just like totally
backs down and reverses course.
I think perhaps the optimistic outcome is he truly was using these absurd
numbers as negotiation tactic and tries to, you know, when,
when the negotiations here and get down to 10%, 40% more, somewhat more
reasonable level, it's still going to have an impact. But I mean, I think even that's in question.
I'm not sure if he wants to do that. I've been debating this a little bit. And I use Vietnam because it's a good example.
But the general thesis seems to be that,
let's say there's a group of people that live in the countryside
and a group of people that live in a big megacity like New York.
And the basis of this is that,
do you think there should be zero trade balance between those two people?
It seems natural that the country would import more than exports back to the countryside, let's say,
or where there's cheaper labor.
Now, how this is working is basically saying there should be no trade deficit between the two of them.
If there is, we're going to tax you.
And that puts a country like Vietnam, it can import enough to to fix that sort of an issue but
and there seems to be like expectation that actually we kind of want to do some of the
stuff that's going on in the countryside in the big mega city like new york like hey actually we
want to do that too um and i think that's that's kind of what's going on here it's more like
they want to actually redistribute the wealth inside the u.s a little bit more
and that is quite a popular thing with trump with trump space and with a lot of people
um and at other times that's tried to happen it's like we're gonna we're gonna basically tax the
wealthy and that is seen as kind of like a kind of at odds with the American dream,
I would say, or like it's seen as like, you know,
it goes against incentives.
But this way, basically you just tax anyone who has a trade deficit
with the U.S.
Everyone doesn't necessarily do better in that scenario.
Like everyone can actually do a little bit worse
in that scenario but the u.s is the strongest economy by far best best demographics biggest
biggest military like easily has the most firepower to deal with this so it's kind of one of
these worlds where i think the the bet here is that the u.s will do better than every other country. If this happens, um, like I would say global, uh,
wealth may come down in that world,
but you also get a situation where the U S redistributes its wealth in a
certain way. So, and I think that's kind of what MAGA is changing.
It's well, not really changing, but that like, they're fine with that.
So I don't think Trump's backing down on this.
I think this is kind of like, I think he kind of wants this.
Yeah.
I mean, he's said as much.
I mean, he came out and said our intention was not to crash markets,
but also that sometimes you've got to take medicine.
And like they've been saying there
could be some pain. I've, I've had, I'm in a lot of people have been trying to
digest this all over the weekend. Some are saying like,
at what point would we see civil unrest perhaps in the U S but I think you kind
of nailed it.
I don't know that we are very close to that scenario at all because the,
the people most disproportionately impacted are the wealthiest. Right.
And they're not the ones who take to the streets.
And I don't think most, most people are, are, are,
they're not impacted yet. I think it's still to be seen. Give me,
give me one quick second.
But yeah, I think that's basically what's going on uh i i don't think i think he might win win uh people over this way it's definitely an america
first policy and it does affect multinational corporations quite badly but again like a lot of people in the u.s don't like multinational
corporations um so and there's all other attempts to kind of solve income inequality
are generally seen as they they just they're not as popular um it's it's it's it's a weird notion
but like taxing the rich is far less popular than taxing
taxing foreign countries and even though the tax on foreign countries can reduce your
um everyone's economic wealth including the u.s more the concept is is that that is one of the
best ways potentially to reduce income inequality in the US.
And I see it, you know, like I see it from more right wing commentators that like this is the narrative.
Suddenly it's like, hey, we've actually fixed income inequality more than like the left has for like 50 years here.
Right. And that's something that is actually a little bit popular.
So I kind of feel as though this can
continue, and I don't think he's
in a rush to make deals.
Yeah.
But what's the thing for Bitcoin and crypto,
as I've said before,
I think this is going to lead to massive stimulus,
which is already happening.
And I think that there's potentially also an erosion of dollar power in this
world, or at least like what all fiat currency power,
I feel can be slightly diminished here.
Like if free trade is diminished in this world,
then you can imagine that, yeah, like few people need dollars.
Few people want to borrow in dollars, fewer people want to do that
in various different countries if that gets diminished.
So I'm, yeah, I think crypto can still do well.
I really do.
I was surprised that it traded badly this weekend,
but you have to remember it's the most risk on asset that is 24-7.
So people go in and they're like, need to short it on a, on a weekend.
You know, this is, sorry.
I literally exclaimed when I,
when I went back to the crypto board folks,
because this is not quite the rebound Bitcoin back over 80 K.
It was, it went sub 76 on the market open just 45 minutes ago and now like the weekly numbers
we just had the one of the worst three-day stretches now of course stocks are rebounding
the s&p flips green as well but in u.s equity history and bitcoin's down three and a half percent
on the week i think that's pretty,
that's a pretty strong signal and say there didn't buy,
he came out and said it.
What a great week for say there not to have bought,
I guess perhaps for our confidence because I think there was,
maybe we'll find out if GameStop was the one buying Friday.
I think Friday was where it really felt like there was a strong bid when it
was Friday afternoon and
equities kept falling off a cliff and then Bitcoin
was holding that 83k level.
And I think a lot of folks thought it was
either strategy or GameStop.
I just don't think we're like, I would be
very, don't
confuse volatility
with we're so back or
it's so over. I think we're just in a period of very heightened, like even now you might be like, oh my god with we're so back or it's so over i think we're just in a period of very
heightened like even now you might be like oh my god we're going like we're so back
i just be aware that this is a market that is insanely volatile like i i said it um obi before
we went live i was like it just feels like we're about to bounce just because like it's not that
any good news had really come out it's not like trump suddenly changed his opinion it's not that any good news had really come out. It's not like Trump suddenly changed his opinion.
It's just like everyone just feels like they're too short.
So knowing that world, there's extremes of positions right now.
And you can gap up 10% and there'd be no news, literally nothing.
So I feel like that's also the world we're in.
So I think Bitcoin can continue to outperform global stocks, everything here.
But it had a bad weekend and it sometimes does.
Do you remember like when all the Middle Eastern wars were happening or like flare ups were happening?
It was just like, why is Bitcoin the thing?
There was a little bit of that this weekend where it was just like, right, we gonna pummel bitcoin into the uh us stock market open because everyone's freaking out um and that
that but this is a good sign the fact that it held that 76 um 76k level yeah which is it's hit a few
times again is a good sign definitely a good sign i curious if you... So I've seen more and more of the bear takes
that we would effectively erase the entire Trump pump on Bitcoin,
basically taking us back to like $66,000.
Do you have any targets?
On Bitcoin?
On Bitcoin, any lower targets that you think are possible
or the levels that you think are possible or the levels
that you feel seem safer
or curious if
that's how you're looking at it.
Feels like it's a really good sign that it hit
that level again, 76k. I think there'll be a
lot of buy walls now
at that 76k level.
A lot of them.
I don't think we're out of
the woods though like this
feels like a a relief rally rather than like oh something's gonna come and save us you know what
i mean i think a lot of people are just so used to the covid situation where it's just like we're
gonna turn on the taps something fundamentally change changed, we're going to save everyone.
No one's coming to save this market here.
It doesn't feel like it.
We've just spoken about how Trump's incentives
are maybe even to continue this.
And we've just spoken about,
and the Fed basically came out on Friday
and said, we're not going to help.
So your best bet here, in my opinion, is the Chinese
central bank, potentially Japanese central bank, potentially European central bank, British, you
know, the, the, yeah, the British central central bank and potentially then we get a yeah we get money printing from from them or
money printing by another name it doesn't feel like the Fed wants to step in here and that's
been that has been something that has happened since 2008 and it hasn't doesn't look it looks
like things gonna have to get a lot worse and the the thing that's interesting a lot of people have
been talking about the fact that oh he wants he wants to get the 10 year lower.
This is a day where the 10 year is higher. It's gone back to 4.1 percent.
You know, this is going to lead to inflation. It's not easy for the Fed to come and just cut rates.
Like Trump keeps on talking about that, but like it's not easy.
Jerome Powell is probably sitting there going, i'm gonna wait and see like i i don't want to cut rates if inflation's gonna um continue higher
so i would yeah i'd just be wary of of thinking the fed is going to save you i think you got to
hope weirdly that that you basically see money printing coming out of other countries i've seen
totally two different totally different schools of thought. Some were
saying that a rate hike is even on the cards for 2025. And then you've got
like this polymarket rate cut market has five cuts at 15% chance.
Now, let's see, four cuts is up to 20%, three cuts at 20%. So, folks, I think that's in line with other markets as well,
that what, four to five are starting to get priced in over the weekend,
I thought I saw.
But that's going to continue to be very volatile.
I mean, clearly, prices are incredibly volatile live as we're speaking.
So we were over 80K.
Now we're back at 78.6.
So we're just bouncing all over the board
i am curious you said you had a good weekend trading like is any are you buying are you just
scalping i know ov came out and shared that he effectively sold an autoglyph and bought ai16z
i bought i bought fart coin on friday which has probably been my best trade for the
weekend um and then i have just traded around some of the l1s and timed some of these moves
relatively well um getting in and out so that i've been i've been definitely more day trading
over the last because the swings have been insane.
But like the gap down from Sunday,
I largely avoided.
And then I bought just before we went live.
And I just told you to OSF,
like I was like,
I think we're going to bounce here.
I bought a bunch of things.
So I've traded well the last few days for sure.
It's probably one of my best trading periods for the last three months.
Well, you love to hear it um i feel like i've been talking about this maybe too much but this fart coin strength is just like
insane to see we just we're having global market meltdowns
and it's good that it's like the circuit markers are being hit yeah it's good that it's returned to the common like uh fin twit right
it's definitely being spoken about on fin twit again a lot more which i think is just interesting
because it was a period where it was like oh it's over but now like it's like oh my god fart coin
is the one thing outperforming the s&P 500. And that's a great story again.
Yeah, these things die not from FUD, but in silence.
You want the attention factor.
And I mean, now the mindshare is off the charts.
Cookie's still measuring this.
And they still have Bartcoin in the AI bucket for what that's worth.
But it's 30
uh means in general means in general held up okay here in my opinion spx as well had a
had a decent period here he's back at still at 520 or 500 ish those two in particular have held up
very well.
So is there,
I was thinking about this a little bit over the weekend.
Like,
is this a sign of like financial nihilism returning to a degree?
Like,
like markets are all fucked.
There's nothing I can do about it.
I'm just going to go back to the,
if I can't buy what considered value assets,
because they're all going down five to 8% per day,
strong stocks are doing the same.
Like why not just fire it into memes?
I don't know.
That's just a thought that was crossing my head as I tried to wrap my head
around why these memes are outperforming and like these
are the top two movers of the entire top 100 crypto tokens right now as far coin sbx
so it's pretty undeniable
yeah yeah i don't really know like it feels like those two in particular are just going to be like the ones,
at least in the broader meme coin space.
Those two have been chosen as the ones that people want to own on days like today.
I would tend to agree.
Does that mean
it's going to displace?
Are they going to displace other traditional memes
or are they just the new
additions?
I think one of the questions here.
It's like, where's Mog?
Mog's green today.
Mog is getting destroyed.
Yeah.
It's $120 million.
Wow.
Yeah, Mog's been destroyed.
Like, honestly, annihilated.
Perhaps there is a changing of the guard to a degree here.
I think the other chart that's been absolutely destroyed is ETH Bitcoin.
I don't know if you've been seeing this,
but this morning it broke 0.02.
It was at 0.019.
It was 52 ETH for one Bitcoin.
And where is the bottom?
Are we going to see 75 to one, 100 to one?
Are there scenarios where that happens?
It's just 52 seemed like a far fetched number.
On January 1st, it was 27 to one.
And now it's 52 to one.
Try to pull this up.
So we're just kind of running out of words to talk about this at this point in time
yeah um ether is dead it's over i'm sorry guys i'm not talking about it the amount of air time
that it gets on different shows for this it's um it's just painful like
i i talk about this over all the time but like it's um yeah it's just
it's just not been a good hold and and it's under it's even underperforming today
right it's underperforming today so sad very sad it's a tough one it's a tough for my beloved
punks bitcoin ratio uh which got whacked in this eth down move the punk floor held even
but with eth getting crushed punks back down to 63k uh so now 20% below Bitcoin, more actually right now.
So not exactly what we wanted to see here.
I'll go around the horn.
I think that's a really good summary on the market, Mando.
Thank you for that.
It was a quiet weekend.
I think a couple of headlines that jumped out.
One, Tether basically said,
if the US is not going to embrace USDT,
they're going to launch a US.S.-friendly stablecoin.
So I think that's perhaps barriers for Circle.
And then Circle also is reportedly, I think this is more tied to some rumors.
It hasn't been like they haven't come out and said this, but now they're thinking about delaying their IPO because of all the,
effectively because of the FUD from those Coinbase fees and perhaps trying to get
better deals lined up
to make some of those financials
look better.
Yeah.
I think it's a tough time, right?
You have a period where
they're trying to crash the 10-year,
which is basically
their business model.
And then you have crypto in general not feeling so great.
They probably just don't think they can get that valuation right now.
I don't think, if you're in circle,
I just don't know why you're trying so desperately to IPO.
Like you've got this great business,
but maybe they desperately need to get out of the stock.
I don't know um kind of feels like you know do you see tether worrying about ipoing
like four billion a year like yeah exactly do you really like desperately need to sell equity
in your company just just click the coupon every year. I don't feel sorry for circle executives that missed their IPO window.
Like if you needed that, then you need to run your business differently.
I think that's a fun angle is it's the question of why do they do this?
Is it because they see their business model falling apart as the Trump administration tries to bring the 10 year down?
Which we'll see if if that's actually going to pan out for them.
I guess any surprises this morning before we wrap things up?
You know, it seemed like. Everything was crashing crashing we're rebounding it felt like interest
rates spiking caught people off guard this morning so i guess anything that surprised you
uh or any final thoughts as we go into this interest rates just pay attention to bitcoin
i think that's the main thing like uh bitcoin to me i think it's gonna it's probably gonna have another retest above 80k um here i
i'm i'm still not of the view that
something like solana is necessarily going to be like a screaming buy for the next couple of weeks like i still
think that like bitcoin dominance is up again today so it's approaching 64 percent um i just
i just feel like that's an up only chart whatever happens for the next for the next few weeks
yeah i think that that's fair i did hear Choose Rich Nick on the Nifty show this morning
talking about how he feels
like Solana is actually
an interesting buy
with Bitcoin here
just because he felt
like the downside
is somewhat capped,
perhaps in like the 20% range.
It's like if you think
80 is a strong floor
for Solana
and you can buy it at 100,
decent risk reward there.
Just because your chance to have it scout back to 140.
I mean, Sol was 140 a week and a half ago, right?
So you have a chance to catch a bigger move than Bitcoin,
but at the same time,
I'm not personally racing to buy Solana.
Yeah.
I think it's more like a...
This isn't just a Solana thing.
This is like an L1 thing.
It feels as though people are leaving crypto right now.
And those stories can take a long time to come back.
And it's not that I don't think solana will dominate
when they do it's just more like it's the same reason why eth is like not trading that well
there's so much block space right so you've got to hope that like your your chain stays relevant
in a quiet period and solana it feels as though a lot of the activity on there was, was more left curve as well.
So I don't know.
I really don't know.
I think that's fair.
And also I think watching ETH not have a successful comeback cycle here,
I think is also perhaps hurt upside of Solana rightfully or wrongfully is
people saying like this whole next man up,
like there's always going to be a next hot chain
and maybe you aren't meant to hold these
beyond their initial big cycles.
So that's a real narrative out there.
So I think that's one that we'll continue to watch,
but we'll see.
Is it going to be turnaround Monday, folks?
I don't know.
We're starting to see signs of it.
So it looks like...
The White House just denied
that they are delaying tariffs.
There was a fact that they might be delaying tariffs,
but they just denied it.
So we're back down again.
Yeah, we're turning around the other way.
So expect more piercing volatility,
I think is is the,
is the takeaway,
but folks quicker show here on Monday,
we will be back with a longer show tomorrow.
That is it.
That's going to be our show.
I want to thank our listeners.
I want to thank our partners as always.
I want to thank Mando.
We'll be back tomorrow,
10 a.m.
10 a.m.
Eastern till then.
Go make it a great day.
Goodbye. am eastern until then go make it a great day goodbye Thank you. .
