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🟡 DAILY RIP LIVE - FAFO FRIDAY W/JORDAN LEE, MICHAEL NAUSS, LIA THE TRADER
Recorded: March 21, 2025 Duration: 0:56:11Space Recording
Short Summary
In a week marked by mixed earnings reports and cautious market sentiment, traders are closely monitoring key sectors for potential growth opportunities. With significant revenue increases from companies like Micron Technology and bearish forecasts for brands like Nike, the conversation highlights the importance of strategic planning and risk management in navigating the current market landscape.
Full Transcription
Week so far
It's been a little bit on the boring side for me
I know me and you were talking Michael now things have been a little bit slower for us even with
FOMC and all the volatility and the craziness
I just personally haven't been taking as many trades throughout the week
But still plenty of opportunities and a lot going on with the market. I'm excited to dive into it with you
But how we feeling about the week?
Yeah, like you mentioned it's it's a bit boring
I think a lot of that was because of FOMC, right?
You don't have, if you're a giant institution, you're not taking a massive bet right before that occurred and
ever since then we've been in a big range, but we've been in a range.
So none of my systems actually triggered anything this week. Yeah, 100%. Yesterday
we saw a nice start to the morning and And then things just flipped right into the mid half
of the day.
And then things just went right back down.
Today, we got quadwitching, which is probably
going to be a bit of a catalyst for a bunch of chop today.
You can see, Mark, it's actually getting a pretty decent move
to the downside right now.
And just the way I'm thinking is,
unfortunately, they might make this big
move down to kind of just chop it throughout the New York session. It's kind of what I'm
feeling for the day. But obviously, we'll see what kind of opportunities the market
wants to bring them. I'm happy to trade something if it's there. I just I just don't expect
a whole lot. But yeah, indexes closed, SMP closed down 0.22% yesterday. NASDAQ was down 0.33%.
The Russell 2000 down 0.65%.
And Dow Jones down 0.03%.
So everything did close down a bit.
But we're still just really in this range.
If you guys just bump up the time frame a bit,
if you're looking at SPY QQQ, we've
been in this range for two weeks, Michael.
And maybe we get out of it today, I don know but it's been ranging markets. So well, I think great this dip is
Very important and kind of what we want to see is, you know, I you mark the lows
From the sell-off and if those lows hold
I'm a buyer and if those lows don't then it's time to go and that's kind of how I look at it
So if we pull back into this area and we find some support before we break down to new lows
I think that's very bullish accent action, right?
We went and we tested it and that test was successful and right now time to now time to rip her up rip her higher
Yeah
Just real quick going through some earnings from last night MU
They crushed quarter two with a 38% year-over-year revenue jump in a data center segment that
tripled.
So Q3 guidance also beat with Nike.
They beat earnings and revenue but warned of a double digit sales drop next quarter.
Weaker margins and consumer headwinds.
So the sentiment on Stockswoods right now is actually extremely bearish for Nike. FedEx
revenue beat but earnings missed. Sales finally ticked up year over year plus 2%. But management
warned full year sales may be flat to down blaming weather, China delays and macro uncertainty.
And then quantum a miss that weighed on broader tech sentiment after hours. And then spotlight
stock Amazon is sitting on a key technical level
after breaking out last year.
Maybe we can bring up some technicals on that, Michael,
when you bring up your chart soon and we can look at that.
Bulls are hoping its stabilization rising 200 day moving average
and improving momentum mark a launch pad.
If Amazon holds the broader market may follow the breaks down.
Brace for deeper correction. so which makes sense there but yeah any thoughts on the
earnings that went down last night no I well the MU I was looking at the MU
chart and that was super interesting where hey what they announced and the
first candle just ripped and then just fell apart so it just showed that some
algos got that completely wrong. So
they might actually be trapped a little bit to the long side. So that's something interesting to keep
an eye on as well. When you get that initial spike and then it gets reversed, it just shows, right,
because what happens is the report is released. There's a whole bunch of algorithms that like
scan for keywords and things like that. And then make trades instantly and then you get humans that
actually read it and then they know you know they spot all the problems and it sells off from there
so yeah it could be one of those things where you get a bunch of longs trapped and this thing could
fade but other than that everything looks you know pretty normal not a not a huge earnings
earnings season anyway yeah i don't think it really kicks off again until like mid-april or so
So I mean until then we're not gonna see any real crazy earnings, but April comes around
we're gonna start seeing those airlines and the bank start to report again and earning season will kick off but
If you want to share your screen Michael
Maybe we can get in here heat maps and start going over some tickers with the crew and just what we're looking at for the day.
Like I kind of started out saying, I mean,
definitely with the move we're getting so far right now
in the morning, definitely feeling a little more bearish
into these higher timeframe lows that we have
on the futures here on Spy QQQ, all that.
So we'll see what happens going into the open,
but have to lean that way right now.
Just seeing the price action I am seeing, but how are we feeling about that?
Yeah, everything's as you'd expect red, but not super red, you know, just down a percent here or there.
And now no real sectors that you would want to come in to save us are.
I usually look at things like financials if
We don't need tech if financials are rallying, but they're not and we don't need tech if
industrials are rallying, but they're not either but
This is what I was kind of mentioning on the spy. So I have
It's just an hourly chart and here's the the major swing law when it came to that event and the way I look at it
I I mentioned this a few times is there's two
major scenarios to watch
One is we knew this bounce was coming and I was on here talking with you guys about that and saying
this this was too much at some point a bounce would come in and then
the two options I see is one is we pull back and then we get buyers in a higher low and then move higher. Well, that's the first technical change of trend that we've had where people have been excited for the market to sell off so they could buy some as opposed to what was happening over the last few weeks, which there was no buyers anytime we hit new lows.
So this sell off again is very interesting to me
because if we dig in around here
and then start to push higher,
well that to me is a big kind of buy flag, buy signal.
The other one, the other scenario
and kind of what you don't wanna see if you're bullish
is just we break those lows and continue lower.
And that was just an old big old bear flag and we're just starting and continue lower. And that was just an old big old bear flag
and we're just starting to push lower.
So, you know, we'll know that for sure, you know,
in two steps.
One is if when we're pulling back here, do we dig in?
Do we see a lot of bottoming tails?
Do we see a lot of buying in this area?
And then the next one,
do we end up breaking these prior highs?
If you go to the daily chart,
I think this
is a tweet I put out yesterday, is, you know, there's something going on at this 568-ish
on the spy. Every time we get there, we're rejected.
And they clearly don't want to let it above that, right?
Yeah. So someone, and you know, things just happens because there's more aggressive sellers
and there's buyers. So at that point, there's some system out there
that's putting on sellout systems or sell algorithms.
So don't know why, you never know who,
but yeah, it's just one of those things that it's occurring.
So we need to keep that in mind.
So for me, that's kind of what I wanna see.
I do wanna see a little bit of a sell off
into the, you know, 555 ish area and then I want to see that get bought up and then we push back over
570 and go from there for me
That'd be the perfect scenario and even if that takes weeks even if we're just kind of chopping in this range for a couple weeks
I think it's overall bullish because we just we want bad news to stop
And we just want people to be to be buying around here, right?
And we know that this is a correction and only 25% of corrections turn into bear markets
So again some good probabilities, but if this low gets lost on any kind of major closing basis then
the thesis is off and that was just a bounce into an overall bear trend and
We got a we got to get out and stay out and wait for the next opportunity
Yeah, I fully agree
I've been looking at the market just kind of you know on those higher timeframes lately and like you say we're just going sideways
But we could absolutely go sideways a lot longer if we need to right I feel like people forget that we just made some
Big moves to the downside
I mean from the highs that we were trading at from, I don't know if anybody remembers,
it wasn't that long ago. It's like what? Three, four weeks ago at this point that
Friday where we really started the sell off from the highs.
I mean, from that point to trading now, we're down like 2600 points on the end queue.
It's huge moves for the market, right?
So we're not just going to bounce and V bounce right back up.
You know, you can't. I read somewhere it was the third fastest correction in history yeah like from peak to down
10 it was it was the third one so yeah it's dramatic move um but like kind of i guess this
is the example that i want to use of i don't know what this was, April 2024, something happened. The market sold off a bit, right?
This is not quite a correction.
There's only 6% as opposed to 10.
But you can see the same kind of pattern
as I was looking happened in through here,
where you had a bounce, and then when they came in,
there was buyers that came in at a higher price,
and then they were able to rally it up from there. Right.
So the buy for me would be right above here because you have the bounce,
you have the pullback that makes a higher low, and then you have a pop.
And again, it's nothing, nothing wild, nothing crazy.
It's just that to me is the way I like to look at, at bottoms.
I don't want to be the guy to catch the bottom. And I just know doing that,
I won't be, but if we get the same type of a move here where you have the bounce and
then the pullback and that pullback comes into a higher low and then you start to push
up from there, that to me is buying on a close over there. It's just way safer. And then
you're using that lower or that higher low as your as your potential out. So
fully agree. Yeah, you know, and it just it's you come up with
plans, right? And that's just the plan doesn't come up with
your own plan. But that's just the plan that I have and what I
want to see. So that really needs to see either today or
early next week, some buying to come in and and to stop us from
getting to getting to this low
because that would be the real dangerous part of it.
Yeah, especially if we sell off today.
That's what we can look for on the sell-off
and obviously this is on a higher timeframe
so it's definitely something you wanna wait
for the close on right after today.
But you can very much study today and be like,
okay, did Bulls step in at all
Are we trying to get that higher low, right?
Will I have to wait till Monday to get more information on that right?
We'll see that's where we can kind of gauge it and see and have a good idea on where the market wants to go next
Right, but yeah, beautiful beautiful explanation. I'm thinking about it pretty much the same way
I guess and that's what you should do. Yeah, absolutely.
I think that's the problem with a lot of people is they look at, you know,
they look at technical analysis and they say, okay, well what does it say about
this chart right now? It's like, well, in some cases you can look and see something,
but usually it's this planning, right? And the benefit of that too, especially
as discretionary traders, you do this planning.
So now I've kind of outlaid two scenarios and what I'm going to do in each scenario.
And, you know, there's a chance neither of those happen, of course.
But if neither of those happen, then I won't do anything.
So you plan all this stuff out beforehand.
So you're not just hitting buttons when the market's open and getting all emotional and whatever. Either we start to see buyers around here
and we end up breaking this high
and then I'll be buying a whole bunch of stocks
or we break down new lows and I'll continue to sit in cash
in which I'm, you know, 90, I think 75% total
in cash right now, just trying to take small trades.
But there just hasn't been, when the market does this,
there's really no opportunity for anything but but day trades. Yeah I'm with you I'm like a
little over 60% cash in my long term right now just because I'd rather just
sit in the you know the S&P QQQ and all my individual names I took profits on
and we still get exposure to those through S&P just don't want to have to
worry about the risk on that you know what I mean? And yeah, so it's a lot easier too,
especially when we're day trading all the time
and we're putting our focus and efforts towards that.
When I am long-term investing now, it's a lot, you know,
it's just a lot easier for me to say,
hey, spy's dipping big, great.
Let's go some cash in there and not look at it for a while.
You know, but.
Yeah, just going into the, you know, the pre-market action. We are just bleeding here So there's really nothing to be you know, we got 15 minutes till the open
But there hasn't been really any relief here things have just been just been selling off
So the only thing that I've been watching a little bit for maybe discretionary trade is just gold
So I shorted a little bit on a breakout or breakdown call this, you know
Head and shoulders or or whatever whatever you'd like, right? You get a little head and shoulders pattern going on there
So when I broke this trend line
Yesterday evening, I took a short into there on the futures contracts. So as we start to bounce up here, if we end up breaking this trend line today, I'll probably actually add to that short. And it's just again, it's just a trade because if I'm looking for things at extremes, the problem is the markets no longer at an extreme. So I want to find something else in the extremes and gold is the only thing that right now is
You know up a lot so I could see it coming down just a little bit, right?
You're not looking to light the world on fire anything with gold
It's not gonna move a hundred percent in your direction
But just a small trade off kind of the hourly chart see if we can get back into this
Trade off kind of the hourly chart see if we can get back into this
Test is 3000 ish area. Yeah, I actually got stopped out of a
Short on gold like we can a half ago. Unfortunately, I was I was a little too early, but maybe Michael now snails it
I'm just I never nail it with gold man. Gold never does me well for some reason
I'm just not I'm not in tune with that one. I stay I stick to the NASDAQ
Yeah, let's take a look at some of these so I got the dock here some of these earnings ones I'm not in tune with that one. I stick to the NASDAQ.
Yeah, let's take a look at some of these. So I got the dock here, some of these earnings ones.
Yeah.
My, and you.
And you, NASDAQ, come on, there we go.
Yeah, so this is what I've been saying
about the semis forever.
I know everyone is super excited to try to pick the move on the semis because yeah, it's super interesting, but it's just not it's not the ticket.
If you look at the SMH, this thing has just been completely range bound for almost a year now. So this is yeah, this is March 2024.
now. So this is yeah, this is March 2024. And we're March 2025. And the semiconductors have not
moved. And all that's happened is people have gotten incredibly frustrated trying to trade this.
And we're just we're just chopping. So this, you know, the way I look at it is that
unless we're breaking out into new highs, I don't care what any of the semiconductors, right? I don't care about Nvidia.
I don't care about MU. None of these names are interesting to me, right? So MU,
yes, it's down a little bit, capping down, but still just stuck right in the middle of the range.
Even Intel, can't get going. Same thing. Yeah. Even when it does have momentum and it tries, it just fizzles out every time, right?
And getting no continuation there.
Well, yeah, that's what, you know, we know for sure that when the market recovers,
generally speaking, it will be a completely different market that recovers it.
It just happens over and over again. You get a crash.
You have some theme that happens. That theme rallies the market, the market sells
off and then a new theme comes in. Right. So going into like coming out of COVID and
it's Peloton zoom all these names, then those names completely gone away. Some of them are
near bankruptcy or should be bankrupt. And then you get another theme that takes us out. And then you get to the collapse when it comes to
the Russia-Ukraine war and the interest rates
and all that kind of stuff.
And then out of that bear market, we have AI.
Now AI is chilled out.
Doesn't mean it needs to sell off, right?
Looking at the SMH, it could literally do this
for way longer.
It's been, it's not uncommon for this to take years to chop.
Look at what it does. Yeah, it does this consistently, right?
Yeah, it's a very massive trade here. So if we are going to move to new highs,
my thing is always what's going to take us there. And no, it won't be quantum.
take us there.
And no, it won't be quantum.
I think these things are,
I'm watching all of these things for a massive short time.
Have you been taking any trades on them
or just kinda just watching from the sidelines?
Some day trades.
I wish I had the guts.
I just really don't to swing short these things.
I think they're all zeros.
Like I think none of them, it's just the way I'm
thinking about these quantum names is that the more I think about them is okay you're creating
a new technology that may not even be possible to create and you're building it from scratch
and you're going to take a bet on some of these little tiny guys with not much cash and they're
burning through it all the time. For me if you want to to make a bet on quantum, it's Meta, it's Nvidia, it's Apple, it's the big guys.
Google can throw the entire market cap of Rigetti, QUBT, QUBTest, all these things
every year on researching quantum and it's like a line item on their income statement that no one
cares about. It's just, oh yeah were you know we dumped two billion this year
into researching quantum but whatever if we get it you know make us a bunch of
money and if not whatever there's they have tons of these R&D projects that end
up sometimes going nowhere so I just look at it I'm like do I even if this
thing even if you can create a quantum computer, something that's useful,
are you going to do it faster than Google?
I just don't think so.
So I want to short them.
I just do not have the guts to short them.
If I do, it will be like 5% of my portfolio or something.
So if it triples or quadruples from here, it's still like a little paper cut.
But then I look at it and I say, well, then there's
not much gain to be had either.
So day trade to the short side.
It's all I can do.
That makes sense.
Stay safe.
Yeah, because swinging that short,
it's just even though your thesis is spot on,
it's just it could take one morning where they gap up
off some crazy news.
And then you're just in a hole, you know what I mean,
that you don't really wanna put yourself in.
So I say listen to the fear, it's not a bad thing.
Yeah, and it's like with the meme stocks, right?
I've been calling for years and people aggressively
fighting back about how these are going,
way back here I was saying that at 120,
and I'd love to say that I made a whole bunch of money
on them, but all of these spikes that happen
in these meme stocks are like doubles.
So you gotta remember that if you're looking to short,
is that even when they go back down,
like I think this is the last time the cat man came back,
an AMC went, right, 400% higher before just bleeding back down and on its way back to
zero.
So you can be right on direction.
I just think this is why I don't focus on the short side of the market too much.
I think it's just it's a hard game.
That's why those guys, not the Citron guy, but the muddy water guy who actually exposes
scams and stuff, It's good for him.
But you just think you've had a hard you're spending a hard life to go after that side of
the market for sure. Yeah, no, it's tough, especially when you're like doing the traditional
shorting, you know, style of things like actually shorting stocks versus like, you know, going
short on like something like futures or, or, you know, getting put contracts on something, right? Like actually going short the market,
you're exposed to that a little bit differently, right? I mean, you can, you could potentially
just keep losing and losing and losing your money when you're, when you're doing that.
So you got to be careful for sure.
So yeah, Amazon, I see that in the doc too. And I see, I do have the chat open. So yes,
well, if you want us to take a look at any of your stock certainly pop them in the pop them in the chat
There I'll take a look
For me, I think 200 is is a good level to play off of and I chat about this on
Monday when I did my little
Lunchtime show and the reason for a is you have this area right here.
This is where Bezos started to dump, right?
He started to sell at 200 because he got a new wife or something, sold a bunch of shares.
And then ever since then, you can see how 200 has been really respected.
So the beauty of that, and I am planning on buying Amazon if we can get over this 200 again.
And the beauty of that and the way every real trader thinks is I know exactly where I'm
wrong.
So if it gets over 200, and I love this little drawing tool that will do your risk reward.
So if it gets over 200, I'll buy it there.
And then a stop goes right under this low right here.
And then if I'm right and we get back to highs at some point, well, that's three or four
times my risk.
So I understand that we're playing probabilities.
So you start to do the math.
You say, OK, if I'm right, I'm going
to make three times what I'm risking.
So you risk $1,000, you make $3,000, to make the math simple. So then in my head, I'm risking. So you risk a thousand bucks, you make three thousand to make the math simple.
So then in my head, I'm just saying, okay, well, what is the probability that I think
that this if I, if we get back through 200, that will get to all time highs at some point.
And I think that that's better than 50 50.
So then you just do the math and it makes sense, right?
That's the, you know, I always try to go back to how actual traders
and investors think versus, you know, people who are trying to pretend they know something.
I don't know anything, but I know that this is a very simple trade idea and that the math
could work in my favor. So I'll take it and I'll either be right and I'll make 3000 if
I'm risking 1000 on it or 30,000 if I'm risking 10,000 on it or I'm wrong and I'll get stopped out
And it's Amazon. I'm not worried about Amazon gapping down like 50% overnight or anything like that, right? So
You know, those are the shots you can take and you can express those with options too
the only problem I have with that is you have to be right on direction and time and that just
You're making your life harder
I think at that point as opposed to just buying the stock
and doing it for, the other thing I guess you could do
is sell puts if you think that it's on its way back up,
but then you're capping up that side.
So, again, I'm a boring old man.
I just like my stocks, makes things a little bit simpler.
Yeah, you said something that I love.
You said, I'm trying to think like the actual traders
and the investors rather than everybody else.
And that's what we should be doing, which is all that means
is thinking about risk to reward, right?
Probabilities, not thinking about, oh, my god,
I'm going to pass a funded account if I make this trade.
Oh, my god, I'm going to make money if I, right?
Like, everybody gets so concerned with the money aspect and how much they're gonna make off a
trade rather than actually like let's put ourselves in a high probability environment. Good risk reward. Right? I have the points of
confluence needed and I feel confident about this. Let's go. Right. So I love that because that's actively what I'm doing every single
day and trying to do right and if I ever I ever slip up, I'm beating myself up
for it a little bit, because I know better, right?
And it's just like, you know, we need to trade
in terms of playing our plan and improving that
and rather than thinking about money.
Yeah, we're playing a game on probabilities, right?
That's all it is.
And everything, anyone who says that they know anything right that that is the one thing
I always say like if you're looking for traders and investors and anything to follow is anyone who speaks in absolutes run
Right this stock will go up or I am 100% sure this thing will happen or because it's it's all
Nonsense, no one knows for sure. We're making
Educated back bets and you know, this is coming from a quant right?
so everything I do I've got some sort of 30 year back test that shows that there's some edge on it and I think part of
Doing that actually kind of blackpills you a little bit doing, you know hundreds
So I've probably simulated like hundreds of millions of trades at this point with all the different back tests that I've done and you realize that there's nothing in the world that
is both insanely highly accurate and has a good risk-reward profile. It just doesn't
exist right so you either want to be accurate often and you're trying to make
a buck and when you're risking a buck right so I'm trying to make a thousand
dollars and I'm risking a thousand dollars and I'll be right 60% of the
time if I find a good setup that does that or the other
way around in which
You're right infrequently, but you make so much money when you're right and that's generally what like trend followers are trying to do
They know most successful
Trend following hedge funds and everything like this. They've got like 35% win rates
However, when they're right, they really blow it out of the water. And then it's
finding which of those fits well with your personality and then just doing that. The more
time you spend saying, okay, well, but if I really dive into this, I'll have a really good idea of
what to do and that will somehow increase my win rate. It's not really one of those, right? It's
just here's the probabilities, here's the game that I'm trying to play.
Do I think there's edge in this particular trade?
Then that's something I should take.
Otherwise, I shouldn't, I should always have an exit point
so I'm not on there trying to copium myself
and the people who get mad at other people
that are saying something that they don't like
about their stock, like that kind of thing. You're lost at that point, right? You've lost the game of probabilities
and you're just, you've gotten kind of married to something.
I call it the case of the fuck it's Michael. You get a case of the fuck it's right. And
it's just like, fuck it. I don't care anymore. Right. And that's when everything goes bad.
Well that's, there was a guy I used to trade with on the, on, um, the prop
funds. No, this was in the, in the hedge fund game. Um, when I worked in the
hedge fund space and he had, he would say instead of the fuck it's, he'd say,
let's see what happens. And it got to the point where if he ever said that
anywhere in the room, you would hear like the risk manager get up from his desk and start to walk over and just go, as soon
as you say, let's see what happens, you get out of the position because that's not what
we're doing here, right?
No, we're playing this probabilistic game, right?
Yeah, someone looking at hood here.
Hood is really interesting.
So this is the anchored view app from the August area.
So that yen carry unwind when everything tanked.
I've noticed a lot of stocks finding support in there.
And so is hood.
So came back in there.
Very interesting to me that it's dug in.
I like the company.
I like the kind of long-term prospects of it.
I really like this long-term chart
that looks like it's putting in a giant cup and handle. The biggest thing just to note obviously with hood is it's going to be very correlated to the
price of crypto and Bitcoin. If you have, which is kind of annoying to swing trade because say
Bitcoin gets cut in half over the weekend, you're waking up down 20% on your Robinhood and just
nothing you can do.
So I like it.
I like the chart.
I like the company.
You know, I think they're doing everything right.
However, I just I really worry, especially on Fridays, buying something where Bitcoin
just completely wipes.
This is one of the reasons I'm excited for 24 hour markets period.
I know some people are, but I would love that where you could
put a stop in Robin Hood and just know whether it's two in the morning or on the weekend
or whatever. It's one of the reasons I like trading crypto so much, building some systematic
stuff for crypto because you just you can put out the trade, you can put out the stop
loss, you don't need to watch it because there's no close, there's no whatever. So, you know, it's an interesting, it's a good chart,
but again, depending on what happens with crypto.
So, we got another guest coming in here.
Oh yeah, we do.
Miss Leah's gonna come and join us
and share some trades and thoughts here in a moment
when the market opens.
Oh, here she is.
What's up, Leah?
Good morning.
How we doing? Good morning. Hi. How we doing? How we doing? Good
morning. How are you? Doing great. We're just getting ready for the Friday, you know, getting
things talking. We were just talking about what was happening throughout the week and yesterday
with all the earnings and stuff. And yeah, just looking at some setups going into the morning, but what are you watching? So I am looking at oil and Exxon, Oxy, I saw a huge flow in Oxy with the potential war Israel Iran,
it could spike oil, which already was happening. So I got some exam this week and I was trading
hymns at the early of the week, which was a nice 8% trade.
Feel free to share your screen.
Yeah, let me share it actually.
Yeah, go ahead.
I'm not sharing. That's like really boring.
No worries. You're good.
All right, right here. So just really quick trades
So hymns we played from Friday till Monday
I was a quick one night swing and
Then I'm looking into actually next week
And I do believe we're gonna have a little bit of relief rally after we clear all this negative gamma
This OPEX day wonderful quarterly OPEX
today. And yeah, so I have some low IV stocks I'm looking at, especially even the semiconductor
space and then in crypto also. So I'm looking to add some EBIT and coin. I think that coin
is in a nice solid place with a nice risk to reward at this point.
That will be my play into next week. And we also have tariffs on the April 2nd, right,
a tariff decision, but who knows what's going to happen. I think the market is not really pricing
in that this could go well. I think there is so much negativity at this point. So yeah, so I'm looking to add,
if people are scared to trade calls,
they can play with chairs or they can do spreads,
which is quite a nice play to limit your downside
in case you're wrong.
And yeah, SPX still struggling with the 57 resistance
right here, as we can see.
That was yesterday, I have my line there.
It's just like three times it tried, and it doesn't.
Yeah, it's been a struggle.
We've been talking about that.
Yeah, and then we have the JPM callers, 5650.
I think I'm missing my notes.
I always check on those huge whales, what they do,
how they hatch.
And 5565 is a support for me next one and then again things can go
against me against all my you know probabilities but I think 55 would be
like the lowest support I could think into end of this month so we can also
see I don't know how much you guys play with the volume shelves. I like them, I like to look at them.
So we are right there now.
55, 65 would be like the level I would be looking at
for a bounce.
Yeah, so that's pretty much.
Sorry, on that volume shelf, so you're just looking at that
as like an area of support and resistance?
Yeah, I call it as the bottle of buyers and sellers,
and who wins we will see.
But that's definitely a place where the stock kind of sits.
And this black line here, it's point of control.
I do not, I don't draw this.
It draws it for me.
Where the biggest amount of transactions that happen on that price level.
Right, but it's again, like if you zoom in, it's gonna it's gonna change because this is not a fixed range. It's a
visual. It's basically how I adjust it on particularly this
time right here.
Okay. Yeah. So how do you know, like, what to zoom in for? Like,
how do you know how it's just a shorter time period? Right? Yeah,
it's not like a timeframe, like daily five minutes, none of that. It's just a time period period, right? Yeah, it's not like a time frame like daily five minutes
and none of that.
It's just a time period that you can basically,
that's why it's called visual range
because you see it from here, from November 22nd,
wherever the most transactions.
You can zoom in, it's gonna change for you
if you want like a shorter period.
So yeah, so I'm looking into this.
We're gonna have really volatile deal, I think.
And what I am heavily in is
Geo and
Funny in May I've been posting it for a long time. I saw this ticker pop up
Geo. Yeah, this one for a while. I mean this was a election trade for us
Okay, huge profits because it's private prisons so when Trump won
there was of course you know we knew this is gonna go up and then here it's
really holding well around those levels so I'm in a game in geo and I'm gonna
hold for longer swing what else I'm looking at of course the usual suspects
PLTR is struggling with these levels, but it's not bad.
I mean, she's just going sideways, right? She's breathing. Yeah, it's taking a break. And Tesla, yeah. Tesla is...
I saw you made a post on Twitter. You said, I hate to say it, but it might be bottom time.
I think so, yeah. I mean, it's 55% down, right? So it's it's look everything passes in the market
I don't think the company is going to zero. They're having a hard time right now, but that's you know
It's it's a fun stock to trade if if not invest and at least trade. I mean Tesla is really fun to trade
absolutely
And we do the same thing is just in between this like they're taking whatever break
Yeah, we were talking about semiconductors.
They're just so sideways.
It's not really the place to be right now.
But if you like options, they have pretty low IV considering.
So if you want to play like a month, one and a half call
spreads could be a safer strategy to do.
On those, you can just or you to you play DTF
SMH, but yeah, they are very sideways
AMD and so yeah, that was that was my week. I played the hymns
I played up and I played little quick trade on PLTR and again
Like I mean I'm heavily in all these European stocks that I was mentioning and they're taking finally a little bit off
Retest and I was posting also that from friends in Germany told me that kids in the gym were talking about
Ryan metal stock so there was a
Say that's like that's like a guaranteed sell sell partial position for sure
That's like that's like a guaranteed sell sell partial position for sure
I wish I was about those before but it was still a good entry and I sold half and now I'm waiting
so my my level is around the 20 if I'm lucky to get back I would refill and
Then a UCG is doing really well. It's a bank. I'm waiting for a breakout of the 55
I've been in this one, but I don't mind adding into winning positions, if I see. And, you know, if people
think this stock is too high up, I mean, look at the monthly chart. I don't mind zooming
out. So we are not even close to the all-time high, right? There is still room to go. And
this one has a really good momentum. UC see, geez, it's a bank.
So banks are still doing pretty well considering.
And then of course, Fannie and May guys.
This one, I have my whole entire 401k in this stock.
This one and Jio and a couple of other names.
But these guys are, yeah, I've been long since
three 34 and I don't mind adding to be honest with you, like I think we are
getting another momentum now with Billy Pooley from Poole time management,
stepping in and he's going to save the company, get rid of the fraud and all
sorts of things.
So cross your fingers, right?
Yeah.
I mean, it's, it's looking pretty good.
Um, this was a here for 50 moving average break out yesterday. all sorts of things. So it's pretty good. Cross your fingers, right? Yeah, I mean, it's looking pretty good.
This was a here for 50 moving average break out yesterday.
I just closed them sometimes so it doesn't bother me.
But yeah, 50.
So we are launch part of the 50.
It looks pretty good.
You always have these tickers that I would never really,
really see.
Are you using any scanners for this?
Because I know Michael now, so you use a lot of scanners
for the stocks you trade, so you don't have to actively
be looking, are you doing something similarly?
We spent about 10 months of eight hours a day
building our own customized scanner Bloomberg,
which is extremely complex.
So we use that, and then of course,
all my hedge fund friends, they
give me good ideas.
Oh, yeah, of course.
That helps. But yeah, no, it's just great. You're always having these tickers that like
I because I'm always looking at the same stuff. And like, I'm not actively it's just not the
trader I am I'm not actively putting effort to like, find, you know, like these tickers
that nobody's really not nobody, but like, you know, the average
trader investor wouldn't really know about right, I'm trading
the Google, the Microsoft, the Apple's everything. So it's just
so cool to always see these tickers. And like you always
have to like look at what they're doing when the markets,
you know, all fizzling out.
Yeah, absolutely. Because look, I'm trading mostly the big cups
too. But this year,'ve just been, that's
great and they've been choppy.
And as I said, like I'm not a scalper.
I don't, I take a quick day trade once in a while, but it's not my preference.
I prefer trading for a couple of days or weeks or months where I can make a hundred thousand
dollars in the trade.
You know what I mean?
Like that's kind of what I like.
It's for me or my personality and lifestyle works.
So everyone needs to find what they're like.
But with those things, yeah, if the market is sucky
on the other names, I have to venture out.
And that was this year.
So I'm using more like the macro kind of thing
and logical deduction of what could work.
The GEO, of course, it's, we're gonna increase spending
on prisons, which now with the deportations, it's happening,
right? It makes sense that this will go. So that's why funny in May again, like look, it's again up today. So crypto, crypto stuck, but this is kind of the trading I'm doing this year.
There's no right and wrong, right? So these are kind of fun things.
And no, I couldn't agree more. And then, And then, Jordan, I definitely think for you and the audience,
branching out like that is huge.
Because we know themes come and go.
So there will be times where the big caps are interesting
and they're trending.
And I just think it's one of those
where to make your life way easier,
you want to be really focused on
what's going on at the time, right?
And I just think it's one of those
that people get kind of caught in traps
where they say, you know, oh, would I like to trade
my Palantir or whatever?
It's like, okay, well, what if Palantir
just doesn't move for the next six months, right?
It's not only you've lost,
you could lose money on the stock, but it's also the
opportunity costs of having, we all have limited capital, having your capital invested in something
that's not moving. In the meantime, you could have been looking at something else. So no, I think it's
huge. And I'm glad that you agree, Leah, because you have to be focused on where the money is, right?
At some point, there was times where go back and look at like Citibank chart way back and after.
I traded it last year. It was amazing. But you're right, Michael, how long was it moving?
Years?
Years, decade maybe of not moving.
Yeah, you're right. And imagine people sitting in those. So, yeah, you're right.
You just have to be flexible.
That's the number one priority as a
trader.
You cannot stuck into a certain thing.
And then, you know, people I'm up
45 percent here today.
The Nasdaq was down 10 percent last
week when I looked on Friday.
Well, that's the thing. People would
pray for some of these stocks that
you're showing. They would pray to be
in these positions. You know what I
mean? Like with the with the market the way it's
looking just fine it just goes to show that there are so many tickers out in
the market like you find what's working for you you know you get you build your
own little scanner if you're out in the audience you know what I mean and you
find find you know some stocks that work for you when the markets going down like
this I just I love to see it it It's awesome. You have to venture out. This was my trade last November here and here I sold. I made 100% on this. Like you really have
to venture out because otherwise you're gonna just stuck there and wait and look I was thinking
about what's what's can be what can be the catalyst for big caps right now. Yeah I can't find it.
It's not there. Where is it, right?
Yeah, Apple looks again like it's a bear flag breaking down.
They're just going up because they keep doing share buybacks.
I am not a fan of Apple lately.
I don't know about you guys.
I do love Apple in the fact of everywhere I look,
there's Apple, especially in my age group.
Everybody has an iPhone, AirPods, the whole thing.
But I just hate, like lately as a company,
they really have no significant growth or innovation.
Just a simple fact of like the way that they keep everything
so safeguarded as well.
And like, you know, green text messages with Android,
nobody else, like there's so many great earbuds out there,
but none of them are as compatible with Apple
because Apple won't let them be.
And it's just like, think about how many more
great products that like we could have and use
with Apple and think, I don't know,
just the whole company lately has kind of just pissed me off
to be honest with the way they're doing things
But I don't anymore either. I mean, I guess I own it through the S&P but like
I never owned it. But yeah, I agree with you. Their innovation is completely in the toilet and
There they have no like they need to change all the branding and everything. It's just like really boring
The problem is there's no other like real
Competitor to it like how you gonna take apples like market share, you know, like how are you gonna do that? It's just it's
with them. But yeah, meta, I mean, I got some meta two days ago, and I was very happy yesterday,
Meta I mean I got some meta
but now it's again limbo, a little bit like tiny first buy after I exited here. I like
to have my trades on my chart so I can then teach people with that. But yeah, I got a
little bit of meta and my next levels of buying would be like 550 or lower somewhere around I mean sometimes you just have to have cash and
Be ready to buy for a long term when it looks really ugly
And you're not sure but I'm a little bit worried with those guys because of the advertising
Revenue and if we have recession fear of course the advertising companies are really
Screwed up in those times. Yeah, so
Something I just keep noticing too is I just keep
pulling up Spy on a monthly chart and this dip we're having is amazing but at
the same time every real like I guess actual dip we've had where it's been
like okay we're actually like down trending for a little bit in midst of
the of the bigger uptrend every time we've done that we've had a few consecutive down
months. And this is the first real down month we've had since the highs, which is where it has me
definitely pausing on buying the dip just for long-term investments. Obviously it's not bad to
maybe start an investment on a huge dip like this. I don't hate it. But at the same time, just noticing,
looking back, okay,
well, every time we've actually taken a dip, we've had
consecutive months to the downside. And this is the start
of it. I'm kind of trying to be a little more patient and just
wait for wait for maybe, you know, some more down months to
see if we get it. But at the same time, that might mean I
miss out on a on a beautiful dip here. But I'm okay with that.
Because we already are invested at lower prices from you know a year and
A half ago, so I'm not too worried about that, but it's just a matter for me
You know trying to stay patient as patient as possible
gold is just
Tanking right now is it are you lucky?
No, I got it. I got into early man. Oh
got in too early man oh the kids eat this month gold gold yeah Mr. Michael
Gold gold yeah
now it's a short gold and I was short like last last week week and a half ago
and I was too early I played this I played I am breakout here I mean you Here. I'm out now, but thanks for looking good. Yeah, doing really well.
I mean, you know, for me, these things are just not moving that fast.
And also with the commodities, if you don't trade the futures on them,
I wake up, there is a massive gap and then it doesn't do much in a day.
Yeah. Yeah.
So gold. But I think everyone is in gold, silver
and all this.
Just miners had a huge flow last week.
So yeah, silver.
No, I 100% agree there. I trade the futures when it comes to most of these commodities,
because yeah, intraday when it comes to stock, they just they don't move at all.
Like this gold trade was something I set up at like seven o'clock last night, and then,
you know, just been in it ever ever since so I like it for that for
more longer term
You know position trades, but yeah
Especially some of these ETFs and then you get the the gaps in the ETFs and then they don't move and it gaps the next
Day and it doesn't move. It's really hard
Yeah, if you do the futures, it's great.
I need to get into that too to trade the futures so much better
with those guys.
And then also one thing I was going
to tell you when I'm already talking about the Funny in May,
there is the preferred stock, FNMAS,
which it's quite safer to trade also.
It doesn't move as fast as funny in May but
when it comes to holdings in case they would ever go private this stocks this
this shareholders get paid first so that's another one if someone is holding
it for a longer term so I have both I have funny in May and I have this
preferred one.
But again, like it's all on OTC. People can even, I think you can even buy those with Robinhood.
Yeah, I posted this actually on Twitter. I posted it on January 2nd and I'm going heavy into this.
Funny and May right here. And people are like, we can't buy it.
Gosh, what a beautiful buy. And CrowdStrike I'm looking at as well.
If we get about. Yeah what's your take on that because CrowdStrike has been I feel like
very quiet for a while now. It's moving a lot no this thing. I don't know I guess when
I bump up the time frame. All my trades we- All my trades here, I like to trade this kind of breakouts here, here, here.
You see all my trend lines just boom, simple.
I like one line that said,
I missed a boat here.
I didn't buy again, no falling nice,
but here's my setup.
If we get about a 50 moving average about this chop,
then I wouldn't mind going long.
There would be another set up, right?
You miss one set, I'll be create another one.
That makes risk reward sense.
So I have my alert set.
I do it this way, like $2 below the breakout
I'm having on my alert.
I get a text and email from TradingView.
And then I will probably go into CrossRack.
I like it's volatile's it's volatile stock
It looks pretty nice. Is that it definitely picked up a lot more recently, too
It was here having the break, but I mean that's normal right stocks do that
As long as they don't like the the ETF on this one to hack or I think the other ones bug
Yeah, good ways to get there they're mostly like oh there's a lot of
crowd strike in there but then you also get just some of the other what pan w
a handful of these cybersecurity names I the more the older I get more I love these thematic ETFs. Yeah. Oh, yeah Like a bug that's cute
You have a bug in your computer. Yeah, hi, see our crypto singies are they moving?
Yeah, i'm gonna i'm gonna get into some of those for april guys like ebid mstr. I love trading mstr
It's such a yo-yo now. It's also taking a break, but I think this one made me a lot of money
It's a good trading vehicle. It's a trading vehicle.
Yeah, it's nice.
I must.
Yeah.
Yeah.
From the 311, we have the 50 in the way, but let's say 314 up to the point of control.
342 would be kind of my setup.
Maybe.
Maybe. point of control, 342 would be kind of my setup maybe. I'm so scared of this stock just because it seems like a ticking time bomb and those can
sometimes be the best short-term trades.
Why do you think ticking time bomb?
Because of all the notes they're issuing for Bitcoin?
Yeah, and I got to look into it more but I did I just saw a couple videos of people just explaining the I'm gonna
issue debt and then buy Bitcoin and issue debt and buy Bitcoin and
It just seems like one kind of catastrophe move and in Bitcoin and this whole thing comes unwinding the you know the
people would no longer want to shares and they'll be devalued and he convert the
debt at lower prices and all of that.
I just need to get my hands on exactly what's going on more because it seems like a Ponzi
scheme.
That's just
It could be, but it could be when Bitcoin gets, I think the level for MSTR to get margin called is like 15,000 on Bitcoin,
we would have to get down there. Oh, 15,000. Oh, okay. Well,
that would make me feel a little better. Because yeah, yeah,
they're good. They're good. Yeah, they're good. I have the
whole research on this. And then also, the convertible nodes, I
think aren't into like 2030 or something like that. We have
time. I would okay about it right now.
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
That'd make me feel a little better.
I mean, look, I wouldn't hold it long term,
but it's fun to trade it.
Oh, it's an amazing leveraged Bitcoin vehicle, right?
It's gonna move pretty close with Bitcoin.
But yeah, the juice you get on it is crazy.
You used to be able to get those in the miners,
but they've just been dead in the water for the last little while and I think it's just because everybody jumped ship
They've been shorted really heavily that's the problem too
But I have Mara. I hold it like stupid for so long
And I have I have Mara. I have coin. I have EBIT. I have veto. I have BTEX. I have I have Mara I have coin I have a bit I have veto I have be text I have Bitcoin
I dumped all my a theorem. Sorry, do you guys know those levered be text?
so this thing
Just pays you so much dividend. It's ridiculous
This be text. Is that two times? Oh, yeah, it's two times. Yeah, very nice
So also it trades crazy, but it also dividend and then beta.
Those are fun.
As long as you're not just sitting and holding
when it's going against you, obviously, right?
But those are fun to trade for sure.
I love the leverage tickers.
Yeah, I have both.
Yeah, I'm in crypto pretty nicely.
We'll see what happens.
Because honestly, I've been in crypto since 2017.
And this always passes somehow until it doesn't. We'll see what happens because honestly I've been in crypto since 2017 and
This all always passes somehow until it doesn't but current situation. I was just posting I think they're gonna start buying Bitcoin right what did they approve 80 million or 1 million of Bitcoin?
Yeah, 1 million Bitcoin. They are discussing to add into the reserve since yesterday
are discussing to add into the reserve since yesterday.
So I think, yeah, I think it's just, it's going to stay here.
No matter what horror stories we're telling ourselves
and how weird it sounds, I bet when they started using gold
as reserve, people were also back then thinking,
what the heck is this?
You know?
So we just have to adapt to these new things, I guess.
It's here to stay, and it's just something I own.
I'm with you. I'm buying it every day, personally.
I just DCA a little bit every day when we get to levels where I'm actually interested,
then I'll throw a bigger order in.
But other than that, just don't even think about it and just let it buy every day.
Honestly, it would be the best thing To just do for all these years. You mean levels not seen since two days ago
Yeah, but yeah, here is it senator Cynthia Loomis reintroduced legislation that would direct the US treasure to buy 1 million Bitcoin
It's about 80 billion dollars over the next five years. So yeah, it's it's a very pro crypto government right now which is great and I wouldn't sell my crypto at all
Tesla is going see let's go Tassie she's trying Leah called the bottom yeah I
also said that working most likely will bottom next let's go but anyways if you
are just looking on different data I'm not looking just on technicals, I'm really looking at like super deep gamma
levels and GX and the flow and what institutions are doing and volatility,
especially volatility. If you don't follow volatility, then the volatility is getting
crushed since FOMC and hopefully it's gonna get even lower next week. So we'll see. I have just covered the majority of that gold short. Just amazing. I never expected a 1%
down move in gold. So it's one of those, these commodities don't move too much. So I took most
off. I was trading the micros. I think I had 15 micros and I've got like three left now
It's just a hold it probably likely be out by the end of the day
But yeah, just one great trade great great risk reward
So just showing that you don't look a gift horse in the mouth
Especially when it's something like a commodity like gold you get a 1% move in gold. You're super happy with your move on. Yeah. Oh, yeah.
Especially when they don't move so much as we said.
Nice.
Wonderful.
Well.
Well, good stuff, guys.
I think we're good to wrap up the morning,
but I appreciate both of you coming on as always.
And everybody trade safe today.
And enjoy the Friday.
Enjoy the weekend.
We got some time off.
And then we'll be back on it for Monday morning.
So everybody again, enjoy.
Trade safe.
And we'll see you guys next week.
Have a good weekend.
Bye.
Bye.
