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🟡 DAILY RIP LIVE - FAFO FRIDAY W/JORDAN LEE, MICHAEL NAUSS, LIA THE TRADER
Recorded: March 28, 2025 Duration: 0:57:26Space Recording
Short Summary
In a week marked by volatility and uncertainty, traders are closely monitoring key indicators such as inflation rates, sector performances, and upcoming IPOs. With gold and silver reaching new heights, the conversation highlights both growth opportunities and signs of decline in various sectors, particularly retail and tech.
Full Transcription
so so so so so
yo yo good morning stocktwits crew hope everybody is having a great week and a great morning so far.
Happy Fafo Friday.
We're getting into the end of the week.
It's been a crazy one.
These past three weeks, really, if you look at SPY,
we've just been really back and forth in the same range.
At least this week, we've gotten some more volatility to bring some clean trades.
But Michael Knauss, how are we feeling about these last few weeks and how we're going into today? Wrap up the week.
The market's acting almost too technically perfect for me. And we'll talk about that in a bit. But
it's like a little bit scary about how well things are going. Let's just put it that way for my
trades. And it's funny as a,
as a newer trader, you go, Oh, I figured something out. I'm the greatest. And then I
think as an old man trader, you go, Hmm, something bad's about to happen. If I'm,
if I'm doing this well, I've always noticed, it always seems when things are too perfect in the
market, it's a, it's, it's fishy. You know what I mean? For some reason, it's always when it's
kind of sloppy
that it's actually better.
But yeah, excited to get into the morning.
Just kind of recapping from the week and from yesterday.
Bulls are still kind of waiting.
Markets slipping again as bulls struggle to find a catalyst.
Only three of the 11 S&P sectors closed green,
led by consumer staples.
So markets just struggling.
You know, again, we're back and forth in this range.
Volatility is a little higher this week.
So again, we're getting those bigger moves, but still, I mean, not really going anywhere.
Right.
Meanwhile, though, gold is hitting all time highs.
Silver reached as high as level since 2011.
So if you're a holder there, you're loving life right now.
Things are doing really well.
None of my shorts have worked out, Michael. I've tried a few shorts on gold recently. They're not working. So I'm holding off on that. But we got any thoughts on gold and silver kind of making
all time highs while everything else is just not really. Yeah, the thing to keep in mind with,
you know, short term trades for mean reversion or whatever, fine. For people who haven't been around for other
commodity super cycles, these things can go way further than than anyone thinks, right? And just
look at was it earlier this year, last year, cocoa, like 100x or something crazy like that. So a lot
of people look at these and say, Oh, you know, it's gold, what, who cares, right? And try to take
mean reversion trades on it.
Again, short-term day trades, I think I was on last week or the week before, and I had taken one.
So go ahead, but I'm not, for the long term, going to bet against these guys at all.
Yeah, I'm with you.
We had some data come out this morning.
We did have GDP yesterday, which, to be honest, I was expecting a lot more coming into 830 Eastern yesterday.
And we really didn't see too much.
The movement happened during the market hours, which was nice, but a little surprising there when we got into the morning.
This morning, we had PCE come out.
The Fed's pressured inflation measure was 2.5% in line with expectations of 2.5.
The core PCE inflation rises to 2.8 above expectations of 2.5. The core PCE inflation rises to 2.8 above expectations of 2.7. And then January
core PCE inflation was also revised up to 2.7. So core inflation is back on the rise. Do we have
any thoughts on that, Michael? I don't think anyone cares right now. I think it's one of those,
you know, there's moments that everybody cares about. All of these numbers come in out of favors.
I remember during the pandemic, it was all about jobs.
Every time there was a jobs report, the market would just explode in one direction or the other.
And then for a while, it was GDP, and they're trying to guess what...
Because the only thing that people care about is what the Fed's going to do.
So they're trying to use this to guess what the Fed's going to do.
Right now, I think it's just all tariffs. I think no one, you know, we've got this whole
tariff deadline coming in. So if you're talking about big, you know, macro econ events, I think
everybody is just focused 100% on tariffs and this other stuff's kind of noise right now.
Yeah, I've heard that a lot just being on spaces over the past week, two weeks, everybody is
talking about, you know, that event and just
kind of waiting for that. So it makes sense that the market's not really doing too much. You know
what I mean? Everybody's sitting back and, you know, biting their fingernails, wondering what's
going to happen. I get it. So, you know, we just got to trade the choppy volatility while it's here.
But no matter what, I'm really fine with it. I have not done very well this week, considering how well I've done
for the year so far. Just had a little bit of a mental block this week. But
even with that, I mean, the moves have been extremely clean, right? The only problem has
been me personally. So for the short term trades, even with this choppy back and forth action,
you can really find some clean trades on a week like this.
Well, and that's the I think that's the perfect mentality to have with trading. The best traders I know,
if anyone's screaming in the comments about someone else's trades or something like that,
I know that person's probably not a great trader. The best traders I know, and I know a lot of
multi-multi-million multi millionaire traders have been doing this
for 20 30 years. They're always the most Zen, like, I don't care what's going to happen. I
can't control it. I'm not going to spend any time worrying about it. Let's just sit back and kind
of rationally analyze what's going to happen and then come up with a plan and execute on that plan
when the time comes. 100%. We got Lululemon cautious consumer vibes, EPS and revenue beat, but weak guidance and margins
concerned sparked a sell-off. The CEO warned of economic and geopolitical uncertainty hitting US
shoppers. The stock to its sentiment is now extremely bearish, which makes complete sense.
Used to be a name I had some shares in, but I mean,'ve i've departed from every name in my portfolio except
for tesla which i'm just yeah just look at the long-term chart on lulu it hasn't gone anywhere
since 2020 i know no more things sideways i want your take on this real quick michael because i've
kind of been in the camp on you know like, when I feel that there's opportunity in the, in names like Ulta, Lulu, those,
those consumer names I I've been in the past liking to take a little action on
some of the dips in the thought process of like makeup thing,
like in terms, I know Lulu's not makeup,
but Lulu is kind of in that category of the female consumer and how much,
how much is being spent at stores like that. I've always been in the category of the female consumer and how much how much is being
spent at stores like that I've always been in the mindset of like you know if if the women are
constantly buying this up especially in makeup like that's something I always want to be buying
dips in especially in like a recession at least I think so right because that's something I would
think that would never really turn over or go out of business. But I want your thoughts on that because, you know, I could be completely skewed on that.
There is a meme, to not be offensive to anyone, but it's the, have you ever heard of the Becky Index?
No, no.
What's this?
And the Becky Index, generally speaking, I think it's underperformed a little bit lately with the whole AI thing.
But the Becky Index, the idea is that you're buying things that white girls name Becky like.
So Starbucks, Lulu, Peloton, all these things.
And generally speaking, it does very well because you're right.
It's one of those that us men don't consume very much.
I think I've had this shirt for like probably 10 years now.
Exactly.
As long as you can't see the holes.
You guys have seen me in this hoodie how many times?
So, yeah, it's really, it's the leader of consumption. It's also, they say, when it
comes to housing, it's the woman that picks the house, right? If you watch any of those
shows where they're selling homes, right, you've got the man who's like, ah, it's fine. And the
woman's like, no, the bathroom's like, so, no, so that makes a lot of sense. But when it comes to technicals, I just look at something like this,
and I don't see a dividend marker.
Generally on TradingView, there will be a dividend marker at the bottom of the screen.
So I don't see that they pay a dividend, and they just haven't gone anywhere.
So when I look at these things, you always got to bring it back to the technicals.
It's not – it has to do something, right?
Technicals aren't reflecting my thoughts, basically, at the moment.
Yeah, so when I look at this chart, I say, listen, if you want to buy the support around
250, sure, that seems like a good trade.
If you want to buy the breakout of 500, that also seems fine.
But this kind of range, I think, can just absolutely kill traders, right?
This, to me, seems like one of those, you know, iron condor or straddle selling strategies
where you could just make money off the fact this thing's going nowhere for a while and
then wait for something.
And this is where, you know, someone I've followed for a long time, Jeff Mackey, is
really, really good because he does a lot of this retail stuff.
And he just talks about you just go to the stores.
If you think the price is wrong, go hang out, go walk around, try not to be too creepy,
go walk around with Lululemon for a while, a couple in your neighborhood, and just see
is it packed?
Are the people just running out the door with stuff or is it dead?
For this chart, I don't think there's anything really to do.
Yeah, no, option sellers are having a field day.
Gosh, it's amazing.
They usually do.
Yeah, CoreWeave IPO watch and video plans
to buy $250 million worth of shares at $40
under the original $47 to $55 range.
Raising doubts ahead of the debut.
Retail traders are cautious cautious what is that chart looking
like on nvidia right now oh we're just so one we're still not going nowhere i haven't i haven't
been up to date with what nvidia is doing at all michael because it just hasn't concerned me i mean
i'm watching nq and es all day so i haven't even looked at the chart i don't think i don't think
we'll go anywhere and i know we're going to talk about this IPO.
And I think there's another one coming down the pipe too. And what I'll say is that
I think it's 85% to 90% of IPOs undercut their IPO price at some point in the first six months.
And again, I'm a quant. Jordan knows this. Everything I do is quantitative and I'm a big math guy.
I look at it and I say, okay, if there's going to be an IPO, I'm definitely not interested on day one, two, or three.
I want to see that first six months where it undercuts.
I think a perfect way to look at IPOs is Kava.
and is kava because i don't think there's any better example here of of an ipo and an interesting
ipo is when you have the initial ipo and then of course it undercuts the ipo price just like
clockwork and then as it starts to break up back through that's the kind of thing that i look for
in ipo so and the reason i say this this, I know there's a lot of people pumped
for this one because there hasn't been a big IPO in years and just want to kind of calm everybody
down and just say, hey, relax and just know that it could be, right? It means 20% chance that it
just rips and never sees those IPO lows, but there's an 80 to 90% chance that we see it. So don't get too excited.
Yeah, don't get too excited, Vax.
We had GME down 22%. I know they had earnings,
and things have just been rough there.
We could take a look at that, I guess.
But App 11 down 20% as well,
hit by a short report over ad practices.
Ooh, yeah, it's not looking too good.
That looks like it wants those daily lows huh
they got hit that uh um on muddy waters or something didn't they
was that gosh this one or was that a pps i know i can't remember that might have been a pps i'm
not sure but well yeah this one just you know it a high flyer, and it looks like there's some profit taking coming in.
Yeah, it seems like the first sign of, like, any,
I don't want to say aggressive, but aggressive selling.
Like, this is kind of the first sign of it you've really seen
actually breaking structure to the downside.
If you mark, like, that previous day low that we kind of popped off of,
we definitely got closes below that.
But it's one, right?
It's 3,000%
up. The question is, what
more do you think it's going to do?
Do you want to be the guy buying the stock after it's
gone 3,000% in
two years? I think you're right.
I think, again, if you want to take the shot,
there's a pretty big level here.
You had the gap. You've got
this low right here. We're
bouncing in the pre-market.
I think it was, was it earnings or something happened in the class action lawsuit?
That's never a good thing.
But yeah, so we have a little bit of bounce.
So yeah, short report.
I think it was Muddy Waters I need to look at because not all these short reports are
created equal.
I think Muddy Waters, for example, who said he, I think he's leaving and he's not doing the game anymore. He's just, he's like, I've done it all. He's pretty
good. It's the Citron guy who's, who's not so much. So, you know, know which ones are, are doing
these, but it's at a support zone. It's a stock in a wicked uptrend. If you want to take a shot,
then at least you know where you're wrong. And for me, when it comes to trading, that is all that matters. It's just, I am wrong under 220.
So, okay. So you size yourself. So if it breaks under 220, you're not too upset, right?
Yeah, 100%. I like that. And then especially even if you're a more risky trader, more active trader,
if that does fail, right?
Let's say you do take some shots at those lows and it does fail and we get working into that gap.
I always love some of those gap trades, trading to like a 50% retracement of that and maybe even getting a full gap fill to the downside, right?
So if thoughts change and we're breaking those lows and getting a clean back test of the start of that gap, that could be a nice little short. It would definitely be a smaller trade
than what you're looking for to the upside,
but opportunity on both sides here potentially.
So love to see that.
You got any other tickers you want to throw on for the chat?
I've always got tickers,
but the main thing that i'm i'm really focused on is if we're
going to get any participation in in iwm so iwm has been kind of the dog on the way up it's been
the dog on the way down i'm looking for for something something here to happen so uh but i
wanted to talk a little bit about how just these avWAPs, I know you guys have Brian Shannon on here as well.
Again, he's a personal friend of mine and a mentor.
I've been watching his videos on YouTube forever.
How well these have been working.
So if you don't tune in when Brian Shannon's on, what are you doing?
But I'll just give a quick summary.
An anchored view app is a moving average that, in my opinion, matters.
You notice I don't have any real moving averages on the screen because most moving averages are just a 10 period
moving average is the last 10 prices divided by 10. And that's all it means, whether the candle
had 100 million shares done or whether it had two shares, right? It values that closing price the
same. The anchored view app is essentially just a moving average from a certain point that
includes volume with it.
So what it does, it tells you basically what the average price is if someone is dollar
cost averaging into a security.
So this is the SPY.
And this is a SPY just right from the all-time highs.
And you can see a couple times here, every time we bumped up our head against it, this
acted as resistance.
So when I said in the open that things were just going too well, it wasn't a brag.
It was just that I've had three or four day trades and a long position here on bumping our head against that.
And then when we came down yesterday on this candle, and then again in the pre-market,
we came right to the Anchored view app from Lowe's.
And the reason that this is important is because when it comes to hedge funds and large institutions
and things like that, they fill their orders based off of these view apps. And there's a whole
reason why I can go into if people are interested, but it's essentially comes down to how,
how do you know if you got a good price if you're trying to buy 100 million shares over five days, right? They use
these as metrics. There's a lot of VWAP algorithms that go on. So the fact that we are respecting
these so well just made me think that this is a very algorithmically driven market. And some of
the emotion may have just kind of been sucked out of things I don't know what you think about that yeah I mean I'm I'm with you 100% I love this little tool you have
especially for just keeping it you're keeping it so simple it's like hey we're breaking below this
with aggression and peeking our head at it and just getting constant rejection I'm gonna continue
to maybe short from here or hold off on longs. And when we start getting that support again, I just think it's perfect.
It's awesome.
Well, I know before, we'll go through some of the charts.
And again, in chat there, I've got chat open.
You can post whatever tickers you want.
We can take a look at them.
But I know we were talking about me getting into some futures trading.
And that's essentially.
Oh, Michael's been getting into it.
He's been getting into it.
Diving too deep.
And this is a strategy I've chosen, right?
So those are the trades I took on ES every time we got to that zone on the SPY.
And then the only trade I've taken so far today is natural gas,
just a little bit ago, just right at this level.
The idea is that this is the anchored view app from this major high right here.
And you can see how many times it was respected.
And again, just like I mentioned to the person who was talking about APP, is that if I'm right and the thing falls in and we break this low, that's an amazing trade.
And if I'm wrong, I'm out right here.
So I don't need to be any more than 50% accurate to know that, you know, the risk reward is, is there.
And just to show what a junkie Jordan's turned me into showing this kind of
stuff, right. Is here's the, the NQ.
And I took this one last night on this candle.
I just had a resting order out and I get an alert that we got filled.
So this is midnight and 1am. I'm getting on my phone
I'm scalping. You future traders better watch out Michael Nels is coming in hot. Yeah you you've
I'm gonna send my wife after you when she goes what are you doing on your phone at one in the
morning so listen this guy Jordan he's got this kid out in California.
Listen, this guy, Jordan, he's got this kid out in California.
But yes, no, that's so again, it's a basic game plan.
And I guess when we go and we start looking at the market on intraday basis, you can see VWAPs here as well.
So it's one of those things.
The reason I love this so much and I love this, these ideas is because they're very quantifiable.
I don't do anything with my money until I've done
a backtest. I've proven there's some sort of edge that exists out there that I can then exploit,
again, using a bit of discretion, but that I can test and I can put my hands on. It's what I do.
It's what we do over at StatsEdge Trading too. Every trade we make is based off of 30 years of back-tested information. So
yeah, so as soon as Jordan got me into this game, I'm like, okay, well, can I do the same stuff I'm
doing from a swing trading side to another side? And then again, I think the big thing is the fact
that we're rejecting or we're playing in these levels so well. Again, this isn't something that
We're playing in these levels so well. Again, this isn't something that cares about macroeconomic
events and things like that. That's what this market is, right? This market cared about
every tariff news. Technicals did not matter on the way down, right? I was coming on here,
I was looking at support zones, and we'd hang out there maybe for a day or two, and then just fall.
It just didn't care about technicals here. And that was because it's a very emotion driven market where people are like super,
super into it. When you get this sideways consolidation, this is where technicals,
I think, play a little bit more, more action, just because there's not that emotion. Everyone
is waiting. It feels like we are in a holding period waiting for,
most likely, that's April 2nd. Is that when all the tariff announcements are? I think we're just, everyone's just chilling until then. Yeah, pretty much. It definitely makes it
easier to identify the volatility when it finally steps into. You know it very quick. It's like
these past two weeks, we've been consolidating back and forth and then this this new week we got i instantly knew when we opened up monday i was like oh volatility's here
we're back a little bit for sure um just with the price action surely that we got and you see it a
lot more this week you see a lot more emotion driving driving the price rather than those past
two weeks we saw it it very much felt like everybody was just waiting and like you say it still still does feel like
that into the into April there but at least
we got a little more and one thing that
was very interesting I'll see if I may
have deleted the I had these reminders
yeah I didn't think I did clear them
Optuma which is a great charting
platform and it's they do courses for
the CMT, and a great follow on Twitter. They were talking about how in so far year to date, 67%
of all stocks are outperforming the S&P 500. And on this down day right here, that's 75% of all
stocks were outperforming the S&P 500. So this shows you kind of just what
we've been talking about that it's very much this is currently localized and localized into
dealing with these large cap names, these big stocks. It's all focused there. So there are
other places under the hood that I think that people should be
focused on that are doing much better. Outperforming doesn't mean going up when the market's
going down. It just means that, again, outperforming. So one of the sectors that I'm
super interested in is just financials. The XLF, AVWAP from the August low. This was the yen carry explosion. A lot of support found there. So
financials have been doing fantastic. So boring financials for boomers like myself with a lot of
gray in your beard would be JP Morgan, Bank of America, all that. But for people who want to get
a little bit fancier with it, well, Robinhood's technically a financial. And then you can see the chart looks pretty much the same. Now, Robinhood has the added exposure where I think it moves a lot with Bitcoin
and crypto. So you got to keep that in mind. But look at the same Anchor View app from the same
price in August, right? Support there, support there. And it's been support right here as well.
So Robinhood's a thing that's interesting to me to me even though and i'm sure you saw this on on twitter or stock twits yesterday they did the
stupidest announcement of all time yesterday did you see this yeah the money delivery cash delivery
i i don't i don't understand it but it's guess, you know, I guess.
Sure.
If we want money delivered, we should be able to do it, I guess.
But like, why?
Like who needs to ever do that?
Tell me right now.
I mean, it just doesn't make sense.
I don't get it.
I don't get it at all.
But the the memes obviously were hilarious.
For those who don't know what we're talking about is that on Robin Hood soon, I guess you can say, I want you to deliver me $200 in cash and a guy will bring it to you.
And I guess, I don't know, put it on your doorstep or something, which is all of the problems you could imagine.
But the funniest tweet was what happens when my Robinhood cash delivery guy and my drug dealer show up at
the same place because what it's 2025 we need cash for like I don't know it's just like it seems like
a backstep from where we've been going for so like I can I can send money from my phone like
anywhere in the world with crypto or it's just a complete backstep i don't understand but i don't and the infrastructure
behind deliveries just seems like again i live in this i live in the middle of the woods and i don't
i use my watch to pay for everything i don't know why we need we need cash give people all the
options right and let them choose as long as it doesn't cost you i guess but yeah um you know
down a little bit this morning off that news. I don't think that
surprised too many people, but overall, I really like this chart. And then if you want to go
super long-term on Robinhood, this is starting to look very cup and handily,
where you've got this big move. Those who have not read How to Make Money in Stocks by William
O'Neill, you definitely should. There's a lot of
successful traders that me and Jordan know when it comes to Andrew, who's just been killing it.
He's a William O'Neill type of guy and Nick Drendel and all these guys are very,
and the pattern is pretty simple, right? You have a prior high, you have a downtrend, you have a sideways trend, and then an uptrend, and you find resistance to that prior high, which is exactly what happened.
Then you just wait for some digestion as it gets back through that high. Generally speaking,
not everything works, but it's a really powerful pattern that can do very well. So yeah, this is a
huge watch for me. Again, and the idea being that
financials are holding strong, they're not doing nearly as well. If we just take that chart and
you compare it to the S&P 500, you can see how well it's done. And if you compare it to the Qs,
you can see how well financials are doing. So, you know, the market usually doesn't come to an
end if your banks are doing higher. Usually those are the ones that show you a sign of recession at the same time,
where you had December 22, 23, in the 2000s, then you go back to 2008.
Obviously, they're the cause of everything.
But yeah, if you have finances doing well, that's great.
And then the other sector that's super interesting to me is XLI.
This is industrial.
So, you know, we've had a couple years of AI, right, AI doing everything.
But at the end of the day, to be a strong economy, you have to have good banks and good lending and all of that.
And you have to have people building stuff, right?
And industrials are, think of your Caterpillars and John Deere's and whatever.
It doesn't matter what they're building.
If they're building AI infrastructure or whatever, it doesn't matter what they're building.
They just have to build something.
So, you know, I really like the look of these names as well.
And it's one of those, I don't see the world necessarily ending too hard. If these
are doing well, right? If banks are making new highs, if industrials, if industrials are doing
well, excuse me there, just messed everything up. Sorry. Oh, it's got this snap thing. There we go.
I have much better. Yeah, so it's one of those things where if those are doing well, I don't think
any of the economic reports I'm too concerned with, and I'm not too worried about anything
kind of ending there. So those are the two areas that I'm watching. And if we look at
the heat map on the just to show the the pre market action,
and then take out everything that's not moving.
You can see overall red today, but very kind of pinkish.
So not doing too bad when it comes to most things, just down a little bit.
So again, it's very much, it feels like a wait and see market. So what we have today, that's more our Monday and then Tuesday. And I
wouldn't be surprised if we, I'm on back here Monday, and I wouldn't be surprised by Tuesday
if we are still within these anchored view apps. So that's kind of the bet that I'm making. So
anytime we're going to dip under this one, I think I'm probably going to be a buyer over the next few
days. If we get over that one, I'll probably be a seller over the next few days. Because I just think the whole world's waiting for whatever this
tariff new is going to be. That's going to be a wild day where everything's going crazy. And then
the market can do what it wants to do. Whether or not this is the low or not, I think will
more or less be determined on April 2. Yeah, agreed. And on top of that, I mean,
we just have all this, we have plenty of
data next week as well. NFP at the end of the week, unemployment rate. I know Powell's speaking,
unemployment claims, services, PMI. We got a bunch of stuff next week that's just going to bring
extra volatility and extra emotion into the market as well. So yeah, the way I look at it, right, the bull case, we're above this 576. And we can hold
above that view app, I actually have a investment strategy that looks for stocks that are under
an AVWAP from all time high for at least a month or two, and then breaks it. So that's this exact
pattern. And this is a lot of what we do. And the bear case, I don't necessarily think it's this Anchor View app. I
think it's just this low right here, as long as we're above that low. So we're open. So let's see
what the market does. Yeah, market is open. I know we got Leah coming on too. What's up, Leah?
How's it going? Hi, guys. Can you hear me well? Yeah, you're good.
Okay, perfect. Good morning. How's the week treating you?
It's been a crazy one this week.
We're getting some more movement rather than the past two.
But yeah, how are you treating it?
You know what?
I'm thankfully in those stocks that I always talk about,
so they are doing pretty well.
But my crypto portfolio is very upset.
Don't look at it. Yeah I'm not I'm just like oh you know it's it's interesting psychologically when the market is not doing well I mean the stock market
in the U.S. specifically people are just depressed you can feel like this really anxiety between
people and it's affecting everything like everyday life decisions with like vacations or
rentals like I see it also with my rental properties it's much harder to rent now because
of the market so yeah but um I just did some um some hedging uh on Tuesday and Wednesday and I'm
glad I did and I sold my bounce that I bought on friday on monday so i could have waited
one more day but you never know i got a lot of tech uh that i was posting online what i was
buying and i got out of most things um on tuesday did you ever end up trading any of that tesla
off the i did yeah we made let's go yeah we had tes, we had Tesla at HIMSS. I was in HIMSS.
We made 15% on that one.
You can share your screen, by the way.
Feel free.
Yeah, let me share my screen.
Actually, I always forget that.
Don't worry, you're good.
Share here.
Yeah, so I had a good week,
but literally it was Friday till Monday.
That was it.
Like I didn't hold it longer.
I could have held one more day but again you never know
and now I'm just hatched I have 560 strike puts on spy for April 17 and I sold 550 puts
so it's a wider spread but it gives me a little bit of hatch and it gives me a little bit of safety also in case that
we go up on the tariff. But so far we are not. This looks to me like a perfect bear flag. I
don't know, Michael, what do you think? But this is like a book perfect so far.
Michael Leccese It's always very, very hard on the first bounce. Because the first bounce can
either, yeah, it can either be a bear flag or it can be a low. And that's why I keep saying we need to see what happens on the next like major pullback on
on Tesla and the spy itself. Like if we on Tesla, if we pull back to, you know, 250 ish, and there's
buyers there, and then we push higher, well, then it was a higher low. But yeah, if we just end up
breaking down, it does look like a bear flag to me and the same with the spy. So, you know, I've got my hopeful hat on, like, like you mentioned,
everyone gets a little bit bummed when the market's down. So bull markets, my buddy JC at
All Star Charts always says that bull market parties are more fun. But we have to trade whatever
whatever we see. And again, right now, they looking very bear flaggy, but I hope just for everyone's sanity that they don't turn out being.
Yeah.
Yeah, that structure look on the market can be a little deceiving sometimes
because you see those higher lows with kind of a weak bounce in the market
and you think, oh, those have to get taken out to the downside.
And then that one day comes that just rips us through all the highs,
and you're like, well, that's not a bear flag anymore, is it?
So got to be careful there.
But, yeah, I think everybody's just really waiting for all the tariff news.
It's pretty uncertain until then.
But as I'm sure you've noticed, Leah, just this week,
we definitely got some at least bigger moves,
even though we haven't
gone anywhere really on the higher timeframe. We have gotten some bigger kind of swings throughout
this week, which I've liked. Oh yeah, this is insane. Even two days ago, yeah, for futures and for,
yeah, it's great if you trade that. What is this? Yeah, that was the Friday. So we traded this.
And then, as I said, I have some hedges. I'm going to wait. And we are also like silver and then as I said I have some hedges I'm gonna wait and we are also like silver
and gold I mean silver's just doing so well yeah yeah I um silver's been amazing it's
beyond my all my targets the violet line is my target so it's it's just well to me it's uniform
with Bitcoin with Bitcoin just being so quiet it it makes sense to me that
gold is continuing and silver's silver's doing well but i feel like as soon as those turn around
is going to be a we might already see it in bitcoin after the fact but i would anticipate that that's
a little bit of a tell when those start to finally give it up and the risk comes off on like gold and
silver i feel like the risk could be back on on bitcoin since they're so about the question is when right question is when yeah it doesn't look so good with
the data to be honest with you and we have the highest inflation expectations we had in a long
time so if inflation is going to skyrocket which we i predicted with this administration and i
wrote 16 pages article on that i don't think they're going to lower the interest rates any
soon to be honest with you so
it just doesn't it just overall doesn't look good and with the tariff chaos guys um i'm just seeing
things pretty bleak right now again like you know i'm i'm as i said i'm long in in geo i'm long in um
long silver gold geo is just absolutely amazing we've been in this one uh this is like one of my biggest positions
and just trade trader it's a trump trade right this stuff that's what you do or as you said you can trade futures and when it comes to individual stocks it's pretty difficult this year um i would
suggest that most people just chill and wait because it's a great time to lose your money if
you don't know what you're doing which is pretty um it's difficult trading market for most people i mean we trade for many years
and it's easier for us maybe but for regular people it's it's really frustrating
that's tesla yeah tesla is going back down no not my tesla save her
no i think that's right.
And it's one of those, I hate to ever say easy,
that there's times where the market's easy and the market's hard.
So let's just say easier.
And there are times when the market is much easier
and much more conducive to people trading it.
And it's just not that right now.
So if you're new, and especially if you're struggling,
summer's around the corner, right? Just take some time and go to the beach and do something
that's a little bit more fun than banging your head against the wall. And just know that
eventually, at some point, there will be that again, right?
That will occur again where there'll be a lot of fun to be had in the market.
I just don't think it's right now, right?
I just don't think it's one of those things where... It might be the whole year like this, Michael.
I'm prepared for that.
I've been prepared for this since the end of last year.
Well, and it's year three of a bull market.
So we've had two back-to-back 20% up years.
So if year three is just hanging out, I don't think that's the end of the world either, right?
I think it's one of those that the market should take a break.
My worry is always just the people out there that are the real DGens.
They don't have the wherewithal to understand that, yeah, the market's going to
be a little bit of a nightmare right now or for that period of time, and that they should do
something else. And then if you're not someone who has the ability to actively trade, that's fine.
You have to hang out and do something else. And then when you start to see, you know, these giant gross stocks
hitting new all time highs again, and you know, everyone's having a good time, then you know,
maybe dip your toes back in. And I think an easy way to do that is just say, okay,
the market's going to make all time highs at some point. And that's probably the time that
things are getting fun again. And now, you know, us three, we're going to be participating in the market all the time.
But, you know, we've had plans and we've been doing this for a while.
And this is this is what we do.
But for the average person out there, right, maybe just go to the beach.
Sit on your hands.
I can tell you right now, if I was just if I was not like as active traders as we all are, and I was just, you know, an investor, I would be sitting on hands and just DCAing into the S&P
constantly. And when we get those big downturn months, you know what I mean? Where we have
multiple consecutive months to the downside, that's where I'm throwing bigger limit orders in,
you know, up in the size on any limit orders that I'm taking. I mean, and that's really what
I'm doing right now.
I'm just also actively trading on the short term, right?
But that's really what I've switched to
because I personally, you know, last year was great.
And the last two years have been amazing
and I've done very well.
But I'm not gonna sit here and say
I am the smartest trader individual
and I knew everything was gonna happen.
I did not, no.
I got very lucky with the dips I bought in the market. And now I'm realizing, hey, I really don't want to,
don't really want to lose any of that. So I took a lot out of the individual names on the long-term
side of things and just keeping with SPY, keeping it simple and keeping it easier, as you were
saying, Michael, just because like, I mean, I can't be stock picking in this market right now
and focusing on the short term as well. It's just a lot.
So instead, kind of just keep it easy
and throw everything into the S&P on big dips.
And if you want to make it really simple and binary for yourself,
there's Jim Fahmy, who's just a great,
he's been trading for a long time, he's a great follower.
He's just got a basic idea that, hey, if the SPI is below the 50-day moving average,
I'm going golfing.
And if the SPI is above the 50-day moving average, I'm looking for, and you know, not
to say that that's going to be a perfect system or anything like that, but it's just the way
of thinking about it where you don't have to, you've got a kind of binary check.
And I know people who do this with the VIX as well.
If the VIX is at a certain level, they're short-term trading.
And if VIX is at a lower level, then they're long-term trading.
But yeah, you can come up with a little system for yourself and say,
okay, I'm going to set an alert on my trading view,
and I'm going to wait till the SPY is back above the 50-day moving average.
And when it is, maybe I'll look for some stocks to buy.
But until then, it's going to be a messy market so let's just leave it alone yeah for the
short term trading for sure for certain swinging it's like why would you do look at the chart i
mean below 50 you could have saved yourself one month of stress and chop and doesn't make sense
i mean look if you understand the macro of the of the companies you understand financials then sure buy
some dips but i also don't think that the div was so excellent that we would be adding to those names
for long term big time you know what i mean yeah but also like when you think about the mega cups
they were pretty beat up but it doesn't mean they can get beat up more like when we remember two
years ago what happened you might think 20 30 down on mega cups
is a lot but then you realize it's not it can still go down much more so yeah that's my trading
i'm just really um i'm doing a lot of research now i read i've been in this name again i don't
want to pump any stocks god forbid it's not the financial advice but it's a huge write-up on
got for bits not the financial advice but it's a huge write-up on European satellites and
aerospace so this company is pretty it's pretty good it's out now we're near to Starlink but
Europe is trying to become self-sufficient with that and not be depending on Elon Musk so this
company is what I added to my investment portfolio for longer term.
And yeah.
You can always count on Leah to have these tickers that I will never bring up on my chart,
but they're always having these great setups on it.
I love it.
But this one is, I mean, I'm telling you,
the prisons are, oh yeah.
My God, this probably goes to 36, 37.
No, it's doing really good.
Not too long, yeah.
You've got all these crazy European stocks stocks i'm canadian i couldn't
even tell you where the tsx is okay that's an american one that's private prisons oh the geo
yeah that just talked about the last one of these weird stocks that you find and yeah i couldn't
i couldn't tell you what's happening up here you can pick like stocks but it's really difficult this year you have to really combine
not only technicals but more like the macro and think about okay what's going to happen in next
couple of years with this administration what do i think that that is going to go and that's how
you need to think as well which is not easy for many people yeah and i i think that's always a
good chat to have right and again i'm as aT, I think everyone expects me to be totally cheerleading charts. But you have to, I think,
just like, right, mixed martial arts, or whatever it is, a combination of, of things always help.
So right, I'm a quant, right? So I run models and systems and back tests and then combine it with charts.
And yeah, it's the same kind of thing is, you know, there's generally not one discipline,
just like the people out there that are great macro people, but they don't look at a chart.
And, you know, so they can be right about what they think is going to happen in the macroeconomic
environment, but still not good traders. I do think it's the combining of those things that ends up being the the best way to do things whatever it is whatever two skill sets you have i think
combining both of those gives you an edge over someone who's just a technician or just a
fundamental analyst or whatever i combine a lot of quant data and i do a lot of quant
when it comes to spx every morning just looking at the hedging and flow
and gamma and all those levels so that's how I establish my levels on SPX and then I trade
based off of that even when I trade individual stocks because they're going to be moving
mostly with the spy especially the high beta ones so yeah this is my my levels on spx if we get there
there is a huge jpm uh strike on 5565 which is kind of my level 5565 right here uh which would
be the worst case scenario into the tariffs if we get there but that's kind of what i have in
my mind and if we would get there that would be where i would be heavily playing the bounce because that's pretty much you have this insane amounts of orders
in those options and when you see where are the strikes of those like colors or or butterflies
whatever the institutions are doing you know that the gamma is negative until then but the moment
they close those positions it's gonna bounce so that's what
i do every morning i set up my my lines and i play with that so today we're gonna probably just chop
we're gonna we're gonna chop i have levels on spx if i would trade it i don't trade it but a lot of
my uh members do and then um yeah i played by by that that that. That's like my structure for the day if I want to trade.
And when I see that SPX is hitting my support, then I can play reversal, for example.
But I would never trade individual stocks without looking at SPX, for example, or SPY for that matter.
I have the level on SPY too.
Yeah, and I think that's another good lesson for people is that you know we
i get the question all the time it's like hey why do you spend you know you're a quant you have a
system that tells you what to buy and where why do you spend so much time looking at you know the
the the markets and the technicals on the chart is because um that's where a good amount of
discretion can come in and you know things like also we talked about, you know, with the tariff event that's going to happen on Tuesday or Wednesday or whatever next week.
These are things that your models don't know, because you're backtesting over, you know, 30
years of data, well, this particular event hasn't happened before. So, you know, it might say buy
this here, but you know that there's this massive announcement coming in a day or so, and you just might say, okay, well, I'll just wait until then.
And having that understanding on top of just quantitative analysis, I think, is huge and ends up helping out a lot of people.
Super important. Yeah.
Well, look, we just need some sort of a certainty, and that's why also gold and silver is rallying because they are rallying in uncertain times right and and in uncertain times it's like hold your gold hold your silver right
exactly yeah so now also even if the even if the targets news are not the best that we expect
as long as something is signed the market can settle and we can have some sort of a bounce,
but market just hates uncertainty.
That's the number one thing.
Like if we know that news will be terrible and it's, you know, set in the stone,
things are signed and the market kind of adjusts, but yeah, we need something.
So until then, I think we're stuck in limbo.
We can play it.
I mean, it's a nice, I mean, if you play this, right? So it's a nice bounce, even if you dip down there and go lower, that's a pretty good trade double range on this, on SPX or SPY. like like for for for listeners you're on a tilt you know you're overwhelmed just things are choppy
you get stopped out of everything you you open take time off really it works magic for me too
and um yeah yeah because i'm with you i think the nothing like you mentioned right the market
hates uncertainty so as long as there's on tuesday, I think it is, it lays out, okay, here's the plan for tariffs.
This is what the countries need to do to turn off the tariffs or they'll never be turned off.
And this is just going to, it's going to be like this for, I think it's four years down there for each administration.
And I think that's eventually fine because the business will figure out ways around it.
And then the market will at least be able to understand.
Because as a quant, you've got to understand that most other large institutions are also quantitative.
Could you imagine trying to update your models on different companies when the tariffs are changing intraday?
Like it's just, it's a nightmare.
Like it's just, it's a nightmare.
This is why when people say the market hates uncertainty,
they send some poor intern down.
He said, okay, you got to update your models
on all the automotive companies because of this tariff.
And then by the time the kid gets back from lunch,
you go, okay, now the tariffs have changed.
So go update them again.
Yeah, it just doesn't work like that.
But Ferrari already figured it out.
Ferrari said yesterday
that the 25 tariff they will take over the 15 and the customer will take the 10 so that's a great
market thing yeah but they can afford it i guess it's gonna be more difficult with middle class
cars i was gonna say not everybody's gonna be able to do that yeah and people already don't
have money right now so i don't know how they're gonna even afford 10 more for cars like i was listed in a parking garage and there are
literally no american cars it's like 90 of cars are like from somewhere else so we'll see what
happens i i'm sticking with my european cars i don't care about the tariffs i've always been a
german car lover i love my german cars yeah the best it's like yeah Ferrari is nice too but it's like having a high
maintenance girlfriend yes that is very true yeah I've heard horror stories from
some of my buddies with those and and Lamborghinis of just oh that's even
worse they drive them for me, it doesn't matter.
Italian, they're very temperamental cars.
I had Alfa Romeo before.
I spent how much on this car and I drove it for a day
and it's busted.
And it's just like, well, I'll take my Volkswagen.
Thank you very much.
Volkswagen is amazing.
It's an amazing car.
I'll know exactly.
I'll know that when I need to get in it,
take my kids somewhere, that it will work.
And that's about it.
But it's very interesting to see, you know, Ford and GM, little downticks on these news.
And it must be that they're planning for retaliatory.
Their parts, yeah.
Their parts are not made in the US, I think.
Yeah, see, that's where us Canadians are getting hit.
Because I think we make a lot of your parts and we ship them down there.
Canada.
And actually, Ford had factories in Canada, too.
They changed it lately.
But these cars were all made in Canada.
Majority.
Yeah.
It just changed, I don't know when, but not long ago, actually.
So, yeah.
So, Ford was hit pretty hard now no and what else was the gm
you said yeah i looked it overnight too how is it doing yeah it's hard too yeah it's just yeah
anyways no comment um well i hope we're i can in the us are friends by i'm planning on coming down
for the cash tag awards i just don't want to get beat up in the street with uh
i'll be good we're jumping yeah i just don't i don't know how to i say a a lot i've got this big beard i don't know if i can hide i'm american and i'll and i say a so it's okay okay i figured
they got that that's how they'll find me i'll talk about a boot too much. Yeah, yeah. It's Canadian. Get them.
Yeah, so we will all be there in New York.
That'll be good.
Yeah, it's going to be fun.
Shout out to Cash Tag Awards.
I know we've talked about it plenty on the show,
but for the audience, shout out to that.
We're all going to be there.
It's going to be a great time.
I'm excited. And it's funny.
I'm watching as we're chatting like this.
The markets have done nothing.
No, no.
Absolutely.
They're all going to do anything.
Yeah, I'm probably going to kick my feet up on my stream and not do much for the whole day.
I'm watching a five minute chart here of the SPY and flirting with pre-market lows,
but hasn't, not up, not down, just hanging out.
So, you know, we're not being too lazy.
It's just, there's nothing, there's nothing too much going on.
Yeah. Nothing exciting. I would stay away from longs below 5700 because as I explained the gammas.
I'm with you.
And then again we have the elephant in the room which is the 200. That's the technical part.
But again, also the option flow is showing that it's not an ideal situation to enter longs below.
You could like play very small bounce, but yeah, we need to get the ball.
I know it's tough, but just you don't have to trade every day, guys, like in the audience.
You do not have to put a position on every day.
It's beautiful when we can get, you know, back to back plays all the time that are clean
and we have conviction on.
But really, again, in this market, market i trade three four times a week and take and i'm day trading right
so it's just a matter of your style and and you know what kind of setups you're waiting for and
how you're capitalizing but just just remember that a good trader is not necessarily taking
entries every day that doesn't make a good trader right just make sure you're hitting your risk
reward you're following your plan and it's all that matters especially in this market that's
what i've seen the best traders do is they're not trading more they're not doing anything
different except for being way more patient and playing the only the a plus setups in this market
and just having very strict rules for themselves of if this happens then i'm doing this very simple
and it's i, I think just having
a strict plan for yourself when the market does turn into the market that it's been,
that's how you survive, right? And not getting too caught up. And when you're losing, when you're
making mistakes, you just accept, Hey, I'm wrong. Everybody's wrong all day long. Okay. There's not
one person that's right constantly. So it's not about me being right or wrong. It's about, okay,
when I'm wrong, can I like dig myself out of this hole can i manage risk am i able to keep the losses small and
continue to you know make bigger winners than my losses and that's all it is right so yeah
not to lose everything in this kind of situations my um my old trading mentor back when i was a
discretionary trader one of the things he'd always say say is that you know you've made it as a trader when you sit at your screen all day and do absolutely nothing.
Because there's just nothing out there that meets your setup.
He's like, that's...
That's today probably.
Yeah.
It's the hardest part sometimes.
You know, you end up seeing patterns in clouds if you stare at charts too much.
You end up seeing, oh yeah, this clouds if you stare at charts too much you end up seeing
oh yeah this is a setup that i really want it's like you're just kind of tricking yourself because
you're bored and again for me i just i leave i'm gonna go walk the dog and get out of the house
it's finally not insanely cold in canada but uh just do do something to get yourself away from
the screen.
And like Lee was talking about, it doesn't mean you're done.
Read books, read.
I've got an academic paper that was published about this trading method that I'm going to
read today, right?
Just because you're not trading doesn't mean you're not working on your trading.
It just means you're doing-
See, that's what's so hard.
You think I'm not taking entries, I'm not not on the charts i'm not getting work done where it's like sometimes a trader's hardest work
is stepping away from the computer but it's just because trading is one of the only things
in the world where it's like you cannot necessarily just brute force your brute work
or brute force work your way to like the top you know what i mean you actually get paid and
rewarded for impatient or for being patient and holding off you know what i mean you actually get paid and rewarded for impatient
or for being patient and holding off you know what i mean rather than i need to work 10 times harder
it's actually not necessarily the case a lot of the time most people don't need to do anything
else but just follow their plan and get right with their mental books what's that when i don't i've
write books i've write i've read articles and books when I don't read.
I do research.
Love it.
I write fun stuff like fiction.
I've read about research on certain companies or products.
Yeah, shout out to you, Leah.
You're always putting out a ton of content on all your social media platforms.
So everybody make sure you're following Leah and Michael Knauss on all the platforms.
Yeah, and I think we're good to wrap up for the day. But always a great morning with you guys on Fridays.
I hope everybody in the audience enjoys the day and trade safe.
Remember, play your plan, baby.
If the setups aren't there, close the screen, walk away.
Go enjoy the weekend.
So everybody have a great weekend.
And we'll see you guys.
We'll see you guys next week.
Thank you guys. Bye. Bye.
