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🟡 DAILY RIP LIVE - OPENING BELL W/SHAY BOLOOR & KATIE PERRY + AUSTIN HANKWITZ
Recorded: April 8, 2025 Duration: 1:01:19Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic market landscape, discussions reveal a blend of cautious optimism and strategic insights as investors navigate through potential growth opportunities, geopolitical tensions, and evolving corporate structures. Key highlights include the resilience of the S&P amidst fears of a crash, significant capital inflows into equities, and the implications of upcoming earnings reports, particularly from major players like JP Morgan and Levi's.
Full Transcription
so so so Music Music Music
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Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Music Good morning, everybody in StockTwits Nation. It isuesday april 8th here with shy velour as always
i'm katie perry we got a lot to cover today yesterday was quite an eventful day in the
markets which we'll get into uh despite the hype from fin twit and kramer's doomsday chatter the
market brushed off the second crash narrative sure vix hit 60 and a fake headline
pumped six trillion that's right six trillion to equities thank you walter bloomberg um before the
white house shut down the rumor uh overall the s p only dipped 0.23 percent tech led the charge
into the green which is where we're looking at the present moment s p uh above 5,000 up down slightly Nasdaq 15,603 Russell 2000 1800 Dow Jones uh just under
38k shy good morning how are you feeling after yesterday no I mean uh yesterday we've been
saying there's gonna be some other somewhat of a relief bounce even though it's just as a noisy environment the on the weekly chart for
the queues like this is the most oversold it's been in 20 close to 20 years it's more oversold
than the covet drop bubble it's more oversold than 2022 um pullback pullback and the bubble bursting
like this was severe and it was aggressive so there's going to be somewhat
of a relief bounce and the crazy thing is a relief bounce with how oversold we were
it could be like a eight to ten percent move and right now it's bounced eight percent since the
Sunday night low so again I'm not I don't think we're in the clear until QQQ passes 494,
and that's 12% more upside even after this morning's free market gain.
So be cautious out there,
but there is a trade to be had for the short-term bounce.
All right.
Yeah, and I think the big news just for even our world yesterday
was this erroneous tweet.
It was a misquoted Fox News segment.
Should I imagine? How would you feel if that were
you if you if you posted something and led to six trillion dollars in a shift in the market is that
like a nightmare situation for a financial creator uh yeah confidence but for sure uh busted uh i
mean i don't know like i that would be kind of crazy if you can move equity
markets move trillions of dollars just based on you clicking submit on something that is
somewhat empowering but oh man uh not a situation you want to be in definitely not
yeah but you were saying earlier it did signal something which was that
if that were true you could see what could possibly happen. So I wonder if you think
the administration and Trump sees that and they're like, okay, I got that in my pocket now.
If things start to hit the fan, perhaps you could kind of shoot off a message into the ether and
recourse. Yeah. I mean, I do think it highlights the thirstiness of capital to return back to the market.
The appetite is absolutely there.
It was the velocity of that move was insane.
I think my portfolio had a 10% swing in less than an hour.
That's crazy.
But it also might indicate to a cap.
That's half glass full.
Half glass empty would be they kind of want to force the Fed hand still.
So if Trump really hasn't nothing has changed
on that front and that's what's worrisome to me where he wants the rates to go lower he wants it
so even if we bounce here and there's some kind of delay in the tariff talks he still didn't get
his outcome of what he wants, which is rates being lower.
And that's why I feel like this is just a short-term relief balance.
The real issue is still at hand.
Fed haven't cut rates yet.
And I think there might be more pain ahead.
But if I'm wrong, I'm going to wait until 12% more move and then we'll see.
But right now, I honestly might be trimming into the ads I did on Sunday night just to raise my cash position
ahead of this earnings season because JP Morgan's reporting on Friday, guys. Earnings season is
just around the corner. Yeah, we're getting a lot of earnings from the banks on Friday.
It's also yesterday we were sort of in the fray of it all, and I feel like this morning
there's sort of a step back moment. And a lot of the conversations I'm seeing are around,
okay, we don't know what's going to happen in the days or weeks,
but it's sort of a foregone conclusion that as long as this administration's in place,
the 10% tariff's probably going to be there.
And there will be other tariffs in specific pockets of the market,
TBD, if it's all of the ones cited or just some of them. And so
now I think a lot of business leaders are, like we were talking about yesterday, thinking like,
what is the move? Is the move to wait? Is the move to quickly adjust supply chain? And I think those
are a lot of the conversations happening. Interesting earnings call yesterday, actually,
from Levi's. Levi's had a great earnings call, admits everything.
They're maintaining their guidance with the caveat that obviously they don't know what the impact of
tariffs will be, but they had positive results. But the CEO, she made some very interesting comments.
She doubled down and said, you know, we're not a manufacturing business. We work with manufacturers.
So while it is their problem and they would love to source manufacturers in the U.S.,
she said it was years and years away.
So that was an interesting note that she had.
And I think another interesting piece of that was just how there was a shining, a little bit of a bright spot in retail.
But it goes back to what you were saying yesterday, Shai, about, you know, this isn't an overnight thing where they're just going to flip the switch and people are going to be lined up in factories in the U.S. making jeans.
Yeah, 100%.
I mean, I think as a bucket, a lot of these consumer stocks, retail stocks just tanked the past couple weeks.
So yesterday was a good example of just holding in line will cause a stock to catch a bit from their earnings in this environment.
And I do think that it's great to see them maintain their annual forecast.
I'm shocked, to to be honest that they are
because you just don't maybe i'm not shocked because they just told me they offloaded their
risk in their business where they don't have to deal with manufacturing so like it's the um it's
the uh third party's problem but what do you not think the manufacturers are going to increase
their costs if you're going to use them because you're not controlling your costs in-house you're going external so i do believe there is somewhat
risk of them increasing the cost and going to hit your bottom line and you're going to adjust your
forecast so it's a little risky yeah and they they kind of hedged like it was sort of like what you
were saying yesterday they didn't they they said for now we're not adjusting it so it's kind of
this like well they can kind of buy some time and say we don't know for now for now it's the same but who knows um but uh backing up on the tariff thing uh
china yesterday uh striking back a bit uh beset basically saying you effed up china uh you're
playing a losing hand like we're coming right back that way um do you have a
point of view i know china's pumping a lot of stimulus into their economic system
who does have the upper hand uh in your view shy oh the u.s for sure uh we definitely have
the upper hand the gdp the amount that u.s consumers have weighted towards the global gdp is insane i want
to say it's like 20 um obviously the east china is the set it's u.s and china but u.s is clearly
tier one a and china's the one b uh i think that the lever that China has always pulled was a semiconductor chain that is slowly unraveling with the domestic initiatives that we've had in American AI.
So like in five to ten years, like who knows how aligned we're going to be on China on that side of the world.
But either way, like it's going to be a game of ego, ego, ego, ego.
It's going to be back and forth, back and forth.
We don't know the terminal range of how bad these tariffs will get, and that's the worry.
We're not working in the sandbox.
I made that comment yesterday.
It's kind of spiraling in a way where you just don't know what the worst-case scenario is,
so you can't control your risk because you just don't have that range uh so i don't know why best and say that said that um it is kind of like it's getting
a little uh again like we talk about all the time it's it's pro wrestling uh the chinese embassy i
don't know if this was a mistake or what but they just like tweeted out just at donald trump on x
yesterday with no other contacts it's
like is that a failed threat is it like I was like that's something I would do to like get attention
from someone like oops like I tagged you like what are we doing like I so I don't know I think that
was ended up being taken down but I'm like this to me is scary like uh these are adults making very important decisions
and whether that was a mistake or not i'm like this is the reality wherein something like that
could set off a chain of global events and that is insane to me um and not to make light of you
know the turbulence going on but this is like this is like something that happens on you know real housewives
no it's we're living in a reality show right now i mean i made a joke about that like when trump
got elected but it's absolutely the case where things are going to be like in the slow moving
biden administration like things i think we're now realizing how nice those years were were
Biden administration like things I think we're now realizing how nice those years were were
it's predictable like maybe things were breaking down under the hood but like it was predictable
now like you just what's happening this is our reality it's like right in your face that we
got to this point in society where these kind of world moving things that move the world's needle
is being treated like a high school
gossip game or just some kind of high school environment and it's like what happened like
really what happened that's crazy over here yeah it's at the same time there's like things like
that happening you have a lot of business leaders and very intelligent people making very big
statements about like where we are in a societal sense and
i'm not sure if you saw ray dalio posted an article to linkedin uh which was very uh thorough
and he basically talked about this being not don't he basically said don't don't get it twisted this
isn't just about tariffs and he laid out this sort of new world order with multiple factors
that are all like spiraling together in this moment. And he speaks to this idea that this is
like a once in a generational, once in a lifetime moment where things shift. And sort of reminds me
of like what you talk about with the fourth industrial revolution. One of his key points
is on the disruption of AI, but he talks about
the monetary economic order breaking down, the domestic political order breaking down,
the geopolitical order breaking down, acts of nature, and all of these things
in the backdrop of the tariffs, in the backdrop of all this sort of reality show BS.
You guys should definitely check it out and read it on linkedin but it is interesting when you have people like this you know this is a busy guy you got uh he he also went on cnbc to talk
about it taking time out of running their businesses in their day-to-day to comment
on what is happening uh and i think that's another interesting moment so you have these sort of
frivolous things happening and then you have these really important people stopping and saying, wait a minute, historically, we're in a place right now.
We need to pay attention.
Yeah, I think you're seeing myself included.
I wrote a doctrine over the weekend.
I think everyone's just like writing doctrines right now because we're in such unprecedented times where the global trade policy has just never been this disrupted in history like i really don't think it
has to this level extent of made-up calculus is actually going to be affecting billions of people
so i think because we're in such a unpredictable environment like a lot of people myself included radio dialogue
ray included uh dan ives included like everyone's just writing a doctrine right now of like what's
happening what's their intake what's their angle what's their input because if you don't people
might assume that you're sitting you're sitting dormant on what's happening you're just not
putting too much weight when this is truly historical what's happening right now so i
think it's really important to communicate what your perspective is on it because it's a once
in a lifetime type of chess move that's being played that you just have to like be on top of
it because things can move very quickly as you saw yesterday even pre-market right now like
things are just the velocity of of movement is crazy yeah it looks
like we're up 1100 in the dow i think what you're saying shy too is interesting as thinking about
as investors as you guys are listening and how we as investors make decisions obviously we look at
themes we're interested in fundamentals but in this moment i think leadership becomes more
important and so perhaps it's not even a thing that people like Dalio and Jamie Dimon are out
front getting ahead of things, like sharing their perspective.
But believing in some of these companies' ability to navigate means believing in this
sort of intellectual prowess of the leadership to figure out how to kind of navigate this
new world.
And it's not just about you can run a business,
you know, very well, operationally, executionally. It's do you have like the brain to look ahead,
see what's happening and navigate? And that's always important for a CEO. But I'm wondering
now if, you know, we had the IonQ CEO last week. I was very impressed by sort of his view of the
space. Is that now more important for investors
as they make decisions?
Because it is gonna be calling a lot of audibles
for these companies.
No, you nailed it where management is,
or corporate governance is going to be
spotlighted significantly.
And if you're one of those CEOs who have a track record of twisting the truth or
being super vague that's going to be a no-go in this environment because i believe i'm not saying
the levi ceo is this person but you're putting a lot of faith in levi's management saying that
they're confident in their annual guidance in three, if they were just way off sides and aggressive, you're holding the bag because it's going to get clipped. So it's really important
to have the captain of this ship that you're investing in know what the terrain is going to be
and they can adjust or your ship might sink and it might get dinged to an extent where you're
never going to recover. There's just so many. this is a type of environment where you, it won't just be burns.
It might be actual wounds and stitches.
Like it's not going to be a bandaid.
And if you make the bad play on a corporate strategy, it might take years to recover from it, not just quarters.
And that's why it's vital that you hear every conference call this earning cycle.
Like it's going to be really important.
And I do it every earning cycle.
But I think for a lot of investors, maybe you guys don't.
You guys don't need to.
Fine.
Great.
This you do.
You have to sense the tone.
You have to sense the content.
Who's doing corporate BS, kicking the can down the road?
Who's actually like we have no visibility.
It could be like A.
It could be part B.
Laying it out there for you and seeing which companies are actually going to be affected in the near term, which are safe, and going from there.
But I don't know.
I've been burned from CEOs before, and it sucks because you always invest in it. For me, I invest in a theme.
I choose which soldier I want to take me to victory in that theme. But a lot of times,
the Snowflake CEO, for example, Frank Slootman, he was known as the goat in software. He was.
He was the old man sleeping on the wheel that that found out because he did
not believe in ai he just thought it was like a nice little shiny thing it wasn't a structural
shift that was going to affect multiple industries and because of that snowflake was playing catch up
all year last year because we they finally got a competent ceo who's ai first knows his stuff
and now they're investing accordingly but they treated last year's
investment year and because of that opportunity cost when you had a palantir who did the complete
opposite route AI first CEO knew AI was gonna be as revolutionary as I believed in was going to be
and they capitalized first mover advantage snowflake could have done that and they had the right CEO
guiding that ship and they didn't. And now you're
seeing the price differences between those two stocks over the past one, two years. That's a
perfect example of why CEOs matter when there's a structural shift happening. And this tariff
policy war is a structural shift. It's going to affect multiple industries.
Yeah. I think I want to get into the CEOs leaning into AI because
there was an interesting memo that came out of Shopify. But before that, just so for people
listening, when you're listening to these calls, it sounds like you're trying to discern how well
they understand what's happening. So they need to sort of prove without being too, uh, verbose that they, they get
They understand the dynamics and they have a point of view, but they can't, uh, they
can't necessarily over promise under deliver either.
So are there certain like things you look for, listen to, is it transparency?
Is it candor?
What are the things that when you're listening to these calls, you're like, ah, okay.
I, this person gets it.
Um, a perfect example is Sentinelinel one ceo i obviously was looking
listening their earnings call carefully after the outage uh the crowd strike outage i was like all
right well let's see how much near-term tailwind that central one will get because they're both in
the endpoints space and cyber security and i was a little worried that maybe Central One who is the new
hotshot on the endpoint was maybe going to gain some momentum because they've always had a Crowd
Strike problem because nobody left Crowd Strike and Central One's product is really good.
CEOs just touting how they would never mess up like Crowd Strike did and that was like such an
admin related error and they're like not bullying but digging
crowd strike down and then he kept saying they're gonna have some immediate beneficiaries off it
but it was so surface level there wasn't any comments some commentary i would look for is
demand is we can't answer enough phone calls we're going to be increasing our hiring fte
to fulfill all the demand we're getting that That is something that you can track of like, are they actually hiring people to fulfill all the demand they're getting?
That wasn't said. It was just like, we're going to get a lot of demand.
That's part one.
Part two is some more commentary on like the, which customers spending a million plus,
if they're incrementally going to spend more or getting more
of a pickup in that space because crowd strikes all the big dogs like they're sentinel ones all
the smbs the smaller players so i was like all right maybe if they land some bigger whales and
they comment here on like what kind of customers that spend million plus are coming to their
platform post outage that would be something that could be tracked as well. That was not said. So it's really important to find
commentary that can be backed by an actual LinkedIn job openings or some kind of KPI metric.
If you can't, and it's just fluff, it's corporate BS. So that's why a lot of times CEOs just don't
say comments that can be backed by a specific metric or a search.
And that's how you can tell what's BS, what's not.
I think that's such an important point because if you listen to enough of these, you pick up on common language use when they don't have that data.
So, you know, our customers, the product's really resonating with this customer segment, but they don't share any data. It's like, well, what does that,
what does resonating mean? They open an email, they, um,
going back to your points though about, uh, just a belief in AI,
Shopify yesterday, uh, they, they, uh,
there was an internal memo that was put out from their CEO. Um,
and it was basically kind of resetting sort of how to think about
adding headcount. I've been at companies that are very well managed and run. And so this is a normal
thing where every now and then you sort of reset your principles around hiring to make sure
you're not getting too bloated or you're not just, you know, some, there's some managers,
a mass headcount for political reasons or other reasons. And so this is a normal thing to do,
but it actually
got leaked, which leaked is kind of, I didn't, when I saw it got leaked, I was like, oh, this
must be bad. And it wasn't. But Shopify quickly noticed that it was getting picked up and they,
they're very out there on social media. So they just published it themselves. It was like, yeah,
we wrote this. Essentially the memo though, the big takeaway was that the advice they're giving to hiring managers is figure out if AI can do it before you write up a JD for a human being.
And this is the first time I've seen this articulated publicly in black and white,
and it gets to a lot of what you've been talking about, Shai. But thoughts on this. Do you think
this is going to be sort of the mindset that a lot of these companies adopt where if people want to add resources they're going to be asked to prove
you need an actual human being first 100 it's well unfortunately it has to be because the levers of
pull for margin expansion when they're getting compressed due to like this tear for is ftes
that's like the immediate that's where all C-suite go
like we have to pull that lever unfortunate it's out of our hands and now we have something as
revolutionary as AI you're going to figure out ways to leverage that in order to fulfill the
workload while you reduce these FTEs and I think like I mean I've been very public about the future
of enterprises I really do think VPs will get eliminated.
There's no more no point in VPs.
It's going to be C-suite.
You used to have two VPs and five directors.
I think no VPs, three directors.
And you have a bunch of consultants now on a contracting.
I think 1099 is going to be the way of the future.
Prove your worth.
And we're going to
work you to the bone. And if you don't, fine. You don't have to pay your severance. We're not going
to have to pay you all these benefits. We'll cut you loose and get someone else in line to
fulfill this. And if you do really well after two years, you'll become a director. I think it's
going to be like that. And managers, analysts, they're're done i don't think they're just done so i think uh that is the future so if you know that uh it takes like six months to fire someone really
like if you're a shopify it really does like especially in europe it's years it's years like
it you have even if they really really mess up like you have to put them on a six month performance
review plan you then have to make them like prove like all right is it like can you recover from this and then that six months
is then when you can like maybe have that they're off probation and you put them on probation then
and that's like two months and like next thing you know like you have to like they should deserve
to be fired it's 10 months later you're still paying for them and then you have to give them
a severance on top of that after 10 months like you want to fire them it's it does not make
sense fiscally anymore and it's post ai world and that's why i was like capitalism is about to get
brutal and then gentick ai future we're about to enter and that's why a year ago i was just like
you need a sprint to build something for yourself now because it's not a jog anymore.
The wealth gap is going to widen between the rich and the poor.
Middle class, you're going to have to be a utility player.
You have to do something with your hands that can't be replicated from AI.
Or you have to have some kind of control on eyeballs. Or you're going to have to do something that is somewhat of a niche that you're protected
because a lot of corporate jobs are going to be replaced.
Like, I don't know.
I see high schoolers these days.
Like, I don't know what they're going to do
in six to eight years when they graduate.
Like, what's going to happen?
Yeah, that's why they all want to be TikTokers.
Yeah, I mean, eyeballs. Yeah, I think everything you're saying is so interesting what's going to happen like yeah that's why they all want to be tick tockers yeah i think i mean
eyeballs yeah i think everything you're saying is so interesting because sort of today we talk
about ai a lot of the conversation is ai becoming more human-like but it's almost like we're becoming
more like tools so like to your point if we're no longer an fte and we're a 1099 that puts us as a
line item on a budget right next to monday.com, right next to any tool really
that you could pretty much get on and off at any given time. And so, yeah, when you think about
looking at people in a company as tools and just pure resources, you strip away personal development,
you strip away culture, all these things that, you know, some, a lot
of studies show matter.
But if we're in this new era where a tool could do it or a human could do it, like you
better prove that a human being has to do it.
We just kind of fall to the level of the AI versus the opposite.
And I think this, this shows it.
And it's, I guess it's a little like dark, it's a little dehumanizing, but to your point,
this is the reality. This is where things are going and you could either you know throw your arms up or you
can look at it and say okay what do i got to do personally um but that i think is fascinating i
even you know i'm a i'm a 1099 i run my own business and a lot of times i can get clients
because i'm not you know they don't have to onboard me they don't have to onboard me. They don't have to train me.
I don't need to go through any processes. It's like, turn me on, turn me off. And that works for me personally, because that's how like my business is set up and that's how I'm economically
set up. But if it's such a shift from like, I'm working at a company 20 years, I'm building my
pension. This is my family. Those days seem just over in
many industries, specifically tech. No, I mean, I interview a lot of people with my job and
I also do some mentorship programs. My biggest thing I tell them is I don't care what your IQ
is anymore. Just get to 70% of being capable.
It's all EQ.
It's all your emotional intelligence.
That's what's going to be the needle mover in the future.
So if you're smart enough, I just care if you're smart enough.
And if you have a high EQ, I can mold you into something that can be a great performer.
And what I mean by EQ, emotional intelligence,
be able to read a room, be able to have a narrative on some,
digesting data and having a narrative,
being able to communicate to leadership in a really effective way
that's not just noise, it's tangible, actionable insights.
It's being able to not be a bad agent in the work environment.
It's being a good team player like there's all
these soft skills that were nice to have the past decade they're actually going to become a hard
requirement and i think that transition is going to be a psychological onboarding issue for a lot
of folks but you need to learn those soft skills now or you're going to be left behind and that's
something that i think public speaking classes were like oh like that's fun it's just nothing
it's like not math or science like i think that's going to become much more of a weighted priority
in the future than i don't know a math class for example because like what do you really need to do
cal i took three years of calculus at university. I got to a level of rocket science calculus. I do nothing with my life regarding calculus at all,
and AI can just do it for me now. Yeah, sometimes it is the learning process
more important than what you're actually learning. Let's flip back to what's going on
the markets because there was some news while while we were chatting uh looks like uh
white house saying they had a quote unquote great call with south korea and they're saying china
wants to make a deal exactly what you were saying earlier shy people are so thirsty for any morsel
of great news uh things have jumped up significantly the dow futures are up 1200 points
uh s p up over three percent% is the opening bell right there.
NASDAQ 3%.
Is this sort of corroborating what you laid out at the, at the onset of this show, shy,
where like any, anything positive people are just like, they need it like oxygen.
They're going to jump on it.
Yeah.
A hundred percent.
But I think people need to be grounded in reality.
reality these are words nothing really has changed uh and all it takes is just one one tweet
These are words.
Nothing really has changed.
uh or comment that bucks this narrative of the deal is gonna be fixed in your term
for this crash so be cautious out there guys like the even though we're up significantly today like
we might be even up five percent today fine but i won't be bullish until Q's clears like 490. I think that was the range I said 495 or we have structurally in writing
that the tariffs will get delayed 30 60 90 days or that there's some kind of negotiating that
they've been in the middle either way like we're still in this mess that's not changing at all from
last week except the narrative
is falling price action right now yeah in writing not from walter bloomberg he's we don't he's in
time out uh we are gonna bring in a super special friend of the show austin hankowitz he is one half
of the rich habits podcast which you all know and love uh and austin's here to weigh in with us on
everything that's happening and everything he's seeing um out there in the market austin are you with us
i am but for whatever reason it seems like my camera's not wanting to participate you're an
invisible guy right whoa that's not that new invisibility tech that i saw man that harry
potter cloak is just really really doing me great here um good thing
you got a voice for podcasting you have that rich deep voice that you don't even i appreciate it but
this is not cool um yeah i have no idea what's going on i'm sorry i just tested it earlier and
uh it was working and now it seems like i guess because i don't have like the producer sort of uh rights i can't manually
toggle my uh camera on and off so maybe someone behind the scenes can try and toggle my camera
on and off for me here okay so now we're off maybe we go back on weird i'm not sure what's
going on there um well luckily we can hear you and we have access to your brain which is
the most important thing although we always love to see your face austin well i even wore my green
t-shirt today like i always do because that's like the that's like the thing now i come on the daily
rip i wear my green shirt and i cross my fingers for a uh a green market and you know we're getting
a little bit of that this morning so i don't know if you see the
comment here from our lovely producer keith uh camera input not syncing something off with that
if not we'll just roll we'll just you know we can go camera off in solidarity we don't care this is
live tv like yeah let me let me do a quick unplug replugug action. And then if not, we're just going to rock and roll. How's that sound? Okay.
Sounds good, Austin.
All right, Shy.
It feels like he was, that's my subconscious talking.
Like that voice.
I know.
He's the voice of God.
Poor Austin.
You know what?
That happens, guys.
It should.
Maybe it'll pop back up but you know um regardless it
seemed like you guys i was kind of tuning in here for a second you know the the nasdaq is up three
375 bips at the moment um rolling higher right now and shy you're kind of still on the sidelines
the sidelines you're like guys i'm not falling for this it's not something i want to be a part of
you're like guys i'm not falling for this it's not something i want to be a part of
no i mean i i added significantly past week or so i went from 18 cash to five but like i'm i'm
definitely might be trimming in this strength and i think we're gonna have more of a balance like i
think it's not just today i think we actually might be bouncing till the weekend and then
people are going to sell off because nobody wants to hold over the weekend with who knows what's going to happen so i just think that i hope people don't like don't
add now like oh the market's up three percent like things must be like much better than they are like
the tariffs probably get removed and that's the trap i think i still believe i really hope i'm
wrong i really do trump wants to force the Fed's hands for rates cuts.
That has not happened. A lot of people are going to be trapped in this bounce.
And now there's going to be a new low in the market in Q2. And because people are trapped,
there are going to be offsides on it and capitulation will occur. So I hope I'm wrong.
I really do because I think QQ will go to 380 that was always
my level i was like i think it's going to hit 380 or spy is going to hit let me see my spy level
um yeah i said spy is going to hit uh 460 to 465 so i still think we have a new or low ahead but if i'm wrong great i'm 95 invested uh and
if i'm right i need to probably raise some cash ahead of the earning season because
awesome do you think what's what do you think is gonna be more of a spotlight in next month
earning season or tariffs tariffs 100 tariffs i mean think about it at at its core this is kind
of something i want to talk about too right right? Because like, you know, I'm not saying now, to your point, Shai, is the time to jump into the markets and get bullish again.
But we're also seeing some very interesting valuations across the board.
Google, for example, is being priced as if they're going to go bankrupt, trading at only 14 times forward operating cash flow.
It's now cheaper than it was during the COVID crash. Think about that for a second. The world was ending.
No one wanted anything to do with stocks during COVID. And now Google is cheaper than it was back
then from a valuations perspective. And now the same thing with Amazon. It's only trading at,
And now the same thing with Amazon. It's only trading at, you know, it's priced operating
cash flow as well is trading as low as it was back in 2009. 2009. And so like, you know, to
answer your question, Shy, I think that, you know, you can have these companies that are reporting
strong earnings with guidance and all these incredible things that come with being a large
multi-trillion dollar company that is profitable in printing cash flow for their shareholders. But if these tariffs, if this policy uncertainty,
if all these things are happening behind the scenes, it doesn't matter what the underlying
company is doing. And we kind of saw this, I think it was maybe Friday. I was in Canada this last
week, so I apologize if I'm not exactly sure on the dates here, but we saw just a blanket
sell-off when it came to the markets, right? It didn't matter what the name was. It didn't matter
what sector. Everything was down 5%, 7%, 10%, 12%, 13%. And so despite what I think will likely be
a better than expected earnings season here for Q1, I think the attention instead is going to be on the tariffs,
the uncertainty, what Trump is going to tweet about, things of that nature. And also for
everyone that's like, who is this magical voice coming out of nowhere? Sorry, I couldn't get my
camera to work this morning for some reason. I tested it even before this and it worked.
I feel like we should just make the hero image like a giant photo of Austin the whole time.
I'll take it.
That will not be awkward at all.
Yeah, just a big zoomed in picture of my eyeballs or something, right?
Austin, when we used to do the show together, my friends called you Clark Kent.
Oh, I'll take that.
I'll take Clark Kent.
You could picture Clark Kent, you know?
Yeah, a little nerdier version.
Yeah, follow him.
Oh, there he is. There I am little nerdier version. Yeah. Follow him. Oh, there it is.
There I am. Boom. All right. Only we could like animate your mouth to move. Okay.
AI or something, right? Yeah. Some of that chat GPT video stuff. But, you know, on this,
this notion though, is like, I just really want to emphasize, right. Google's sitting on $95
billion of cash. They're not going anywhere. So why are people
pricing them as if they're going out of business? And that's what I really want people to understand
right now is like the market is blanket selling everything, just like it's blanket selling,
buying everything today. Like nowhere really seems to be safe. But I do want to also emphasize
all the glitter is not gold. For example, American Express,
as you guys probably have seen, their stock price went crazy vertical, I'd say over the last six
months. Yeah, AXP, I think is their ticker. American Express went crazy vertical over the
last six months. And then over the last call it, you know, several weeks here, their stock has sold
off dramatically. And their PE multiple went from 22 times, which was crazy overvalued at its peak,
now down to about 16. But even though they've experienced this dramatic sell-off from those
recent highs, their long-standing PE multiple is closer 14 and a half to 15. And even in the
bear market of 2022, it got all the way down to 12. And so like people might see these sell offs
happening around the market, and they might get excited about Oh my gosh, get to get into American
Express now at like this lower price. But just know that like, just because it's a lower price
right now, doesn't mean historically speaking, it's a good valuation to get into because some of these names were so overvalued.
Just call it, you know, 8, 12 weeks ago.
Yeah, we got American Express reporting in just over a week.
They're going on April 17th.
So to everything you were saying too, Shai, I think it was awesome.
I was asking Shai a few days ago like what when will
we kind of know how bad slash not bad this is and he's like let's let's follow the earnings that's
gonna be uh what do you expect like shy or austin that axp or just in general earning season with
companies like this to austin's point that was on a great run and then got cut off at the knees
point that was on a great run and then got cut off at the knees well i i think it's i actually
want to go back to like google uh before we get because i think google and this earnings season
will be really important as well and google has and don't give me that shot don't give me that
stuff with the chat gpt stuff man we're talking about google here it's gonna be a very it's gonna
be a very balanced take um so google clearly the reason Google's trained so cheap or undervalued is because the cannibalization of their search business is at risk of AI.
I think that's why there's a narrative problem with Google.
It's the same narrative problem that NVIDIA has right now with their training data is going to be cheap, hardware business is going to go down.
... down. So I think, Austin, you agree, Google is going through one of the most complex
pivots in its history, which is maintaining its dominance in search while also trying to position
itself for the next generation of computing AI. But AI is also going to be affecting their search.
There's a balance right now. But I do think Google is in a really great... I think the market's focused too much on the headwind of its search
business and not enough on the structural tailwinds that's coming from their infrastructure layer and
also their cybersecurity stack via the whiz acquisition if it goes through. So there's no
denying that AI is going to become a real challenge to the traditional search model.
Yes, it might go from 95% market share to 90%,
but that 5% delta will hit their bottom line.
But this also isn't just about chatbots stealing a few queries out there.
It's about a potential structural shift in how users seek and interact with information.
And in self-searching, myself included, I know a lot of my friends, they just ask agents
to find, compare, and even transact what the service, transact what's the information they
want to know. So that's going to cut the monetization surface, in my opinion, of ads and
reshape click-through dynamics, which is essentially the bread and butter of Google.
essentially the bread and butter of Google. But the more LLMs I extract away from the service
search experience, it's hard to justify what their future margins will be and their fundamentals.
And that uncertainty is why it's trading so undervalued. So that's a risk. If you disagree
with that, then this is an incredible opportunity. And i do believe that google's position really nice
nice in the agentic ai future we're about to enter and i think that nobody really knows the one-to-one
headwind to tailwind but if it's one-to-one this is going to be substantially higher and i think
that's something that it's worth the risk almost It's like it's getting to that level.
It's become so undervalued that it's priced into the stock almost right now.
And it's okay to say like their bread and butter is going to be cannibalized by AI, but also know the other end of like how they're going to have structural tailwinds of it.
And it might be one to one.
Yeah.
No, I'm right there with you i guess the only um you know thing
i'd want to jump in on additionally here is like what what about amazon's case then right amazon is
trading at a operating cash flow uh multiple that it hasn't seen since 2009 and i don't know about
anything that's like around the corner to disrupt amazon when it comes to their like core business, right?
Like AWS is still rocking and rolling.
That's obviously how they make most of their money.
So like to your point, I totally agree.
Like there are underlying shifts that are happening for Google that are making investors be a little bit more uncertain.
Therefore, they want to get into it.
You know, they don't want to have such a high valuation multiple when they go buy this stock.
Totally agree with that.
But I would argue you can't make that argument for Amazon, right?
So it's like that kind of then goes back to this idea.
We're just seeing such blanket selling happening across the markets, no matter the name in general.
So full transparency, I bought a little bit of Google yesterday,
I put 250 bucks into the stock. And same thing with Amazon, I put about 250 bucks into Amazon
as well. So yeah, it's at that point now where it's like, you could argue that, of course,
absolutely, any of these names that we're talking about right now could go down another 10, 20, 30,
40%. We all remember COVID. We all
remember the 2022 bear market. It was wild to see some of these names go down by 60, 70, 80%. And
you're like, oh my gosh, why is it still going down? But I think having that long-term viewpoint
when it comes to investing into these companies and knowing that, yeah, like, you know, despite these short term uncertainties,
I am a long term bullish investor into this underlying thesis of, you know, Google's business
or Amazon's business, you know, NVIDIA's business, however you want to describe your sort of
portfolio there. So yeah, I'm right there with you, man. And I just, to your point, though, I would be,
um yeah i'm right there with you man and i just to your point though i would be
i'm cautiously optimistic in the short term but i do think that over the next 18 to 24 months
we will see all of this and be like wow i wish i bought more yeah i think oh totally and i go ahead
okay go on no i was just to say regarding... You go.
I mean, regarding Amazon, Amazon is my top position.
I've been adding, and I think it's really important.
The quick color I want to make on Amazon is they're not immune to the higher import duties.
They're going to be affected by the tariffs.
I think that's what's in their narrative of discretionary spend might get cuts due to all the tariffs outcome.
And Amazon's going to hit
especially on the retail side where a significant portion of its third market third-party marketplace
is kind of dependent on chinese manufacturing but unlike companies that rely on external
freight carriers or some kind of warehouse partners like amazon does control every step
of the value chain and that's really important because they can, that control means optionality in this environment.
When the goalpost keeps getting pushed out, optionality is at most the biggest weight
of the, anyone's competitive advantage right now.
They can subsidize pricing on select SKUs, or they can lean into the U S base and fulfillment
centers that they've invested significant amount of money over the past decade for faster domestic rerouting or some kind of shift seller incentives to encourage nearshoring without having to disrupt all the user experience from the prime members.
There's a level of agility right now that almost all competitors just simply don't have.
And that's just the e-commerce side.
I'm not getting against the AI side,
but again, it's really important to know the full picture
and not just treat it as a near-to-false price action
when you see Amazon dip, dip, dip 30% in like two months.
Sure, it deserves to get hit a little,
but just also be fully aware
that Amazon controls every step of the value chain. So there is
optionality and optionality is vital. 100%. And I guess the other thing I just want to share,
if we reflect upon Katie, unfortunately you weren't here, but the first time I jumped on
the daily rip with Shai and Jordan, we talked about an ETF called QQQH. And this was the, excuse me,
the Nios NASDAQ 100 hedged equity income ETF.
And essentially what it does,
it's invested into all the underlying holdings
of the NASDAQ 100,
but they sell covered call option contracts,
roughly three to 5% out of the money,
then use some of that premium to buy puts on the NASDAQ,
offsetting potential downside risk. And what's cool is, year to date, the Qs as of yesterday
when I was doing this research were down about 17-ish percent, whereas QQQH is down only 10%.
And that 7% delta, again, were those put options that were coming in to help support some downside
risk. So as we've got now thousands
of people listening on Twitter about all the cool things we're talking about here, if you are someone
like me who wants to continually be investing, buying the dip, dollar cost averaging, things of
that nature, I think QQQH would be a really interesting name to add to your watch list,
because again, you're owning all the underlying constituents of the NASDAQ 100 and you have full
exposure to that while also sort of implementing a downside risk strategy when it comes to buying
some of these put options. I think it's like 10 or 12% in the money. So definitely check out QQQH.
It's something that I've been sort of buying throughout this year and really excited. I did
obviously with the 7% delta, negative 10% versus the negative 17 when it comes to the queues
yeah I think the conversation you were having you guys were both making important points Austin
saying don't don't kind of fall victim to like this blanket uh sell-off across everything but
to your point shy some of these businesses are facing existential threats I think the one thing
I'll call it on Google is I don't know if you guys saw this, but they just sacked their former head
of Gemini. So there's obviously frustrations there, or they're looking to make a shift.
And similar, Apple also kind of struggling in that front. And the other thing about Google
that I think is interesting is when you talk about Google's search market share, the 98%,
whatever it is, it's less gpt is less about taking search
share but it's like creating a new category entirely so the total volume of internet searches
is going down in favor of other behaviors interacting with these ai tools and so
google might always have 90 they might have 99 99% of search share, but that TAM statistically
is going down and there's a new category being created.
And something I think that's interesting is a lot of those players are privately held
that are owning.
You got the Anthropic, the OpenAI, like those aren't public companies.
And so it's an interesting moment for investors to watch that shift and say, okay, I see this
TAM going down, but like, I might not have access to to get to these pure play players yet
uh and that that's interesting to me as most of those companies i mean i don't i don't think
there's a major pure play ai consumer is there a company that's that's publicly traded um not that
on top of mind but that's actually something i'd love to get your perspective on, Katie, which is like, what's your take on like some of these companies staying private for longer?
Right. Tesla IPO'd at $2 billion. Now they're a trillion dollar company, essentially.
You think about like the open AIs that just raised, I think it was at a $300 billion valuation.
We've got SpaceX at a 300 something billion, 400 something billion valuation.
What's your take on these companies staying private for longer?
I think there's two things.
One, they obviously are well-capitalized.
The second, though, is the innovation in financial technology,
where there's a lot of ways you can actually invest in some of these.
There's secondary markets.
There's things like the ARK Venture Fund.
There's things like the ARK Venture Fund.
There are publicly traded bundles of, you know, you could trade in on like a SoFi pretty soon.
You'll be able to invest in a basket of consumer VC companies as a retail investor.
And they're looped in with Apex, which is sort of the, Apex is sort of the underpinning of a lot of these fintech platforms.
They fractionalize the assets and make it really easy to transact. And so not very long from now, you'll be able to say,
I like this CPG startup and invest on a Robinhood or a SoFi or a public directly. And so I think
that changes things a bit because the public markets was how regular people got access to
these companies. But now that the technology is advancing,
it might not have to be publicly traded for someone to have that same access.
And so I think that's changing really rapidly and something to watch.
And a lot of what I've been reading and especially what we'll see in times of
volatility is when the public markets are volatile,
people are looking for alternative assets and it's just becoming easier and easier.
There's even
legislation that's been put forward to revise the accredited investor guidelines. And so
I don't know if they're going to need to, to your question directly, Austin, I don't know if they're
going to need to necessarily if you can reach that same number of retail investors at scale,
not being a publicly traded company. No, I'm right there with you. And, you know, speaking of these CPG brands,
Poppy over here getting acquired for like $2 billion. I mean, you're totally right. I would
have loved to. I drink this stuff all the time. I would love to own equity in some of these brands
and these companies. And, you know, as we're talking about privately held companies in Google,
right? Aptronic, I think, raised $160 million, the humanoid robotics company from Google.
So there's a lot of, you know, privately held companies that are doing some very interesting
things, especially as it relates to AI, humanoid robotics, search, everything in between. But
something you said that really, really made my brain go, wow, was I didn't think about, to your
point, this idea where the search that comes with,
you know, just online search, the TAM is going to get smaller as more and more people
look toward using the Groks, the chat GPTs of the world to do their search.
That was really eye-opening to me.
Yeah, the monetization too is totally different.
So Google, I mean, that's pure advertising.
There's seasonality.
They have decades of data that shows when certain things are happening in pockets of the industry economy,
there's a lot of, what Shai was saying, there's a lot of predictability there.
Growing at a steady place, like they know if a certain amount of VC dollars come in,
that segment of their advertisers is going to go up a certain amount.
This move to the other stuff, that's subscription.
That's way different.
And I think that's the, like Google might, you know, blow it out of the park.
They might crush it.
They're Google.
But it's very different than being an advertising business.
And that's what they've been doing since forever.
Totally agree.
Are you guys still Googling a lot
or are you mostly going into...
Well, it depends.
I think it depends.
That's true.
It does depend.
When do you Google versus use a tool?
I'm going on Google
if I need someone's contact info,
if I want to go to a website that i know already exists if i want to uh get directions because i can google maps
right just real quickly like that um like for example i had to call my bank i didn't know their
phone number so i'm not going to ask grok what the phone number is of my bank i'm just going to type
in the bank i use and then contact us and then then the contact us page pops up first. So like, that's like a situation where I'll use Google. But when it
comes to like, for example, I'm sitting on like 350,000 points on my Chase Ultimate Rewards card
or whatever, right? So I've got all these points. And so I went to Grok last night and I was like,
hey, Grok, build me a super cool vacation that I can use these points
for and really enjoy myself. And so Grok's like, hey, cool. How's it going? This is fun.
And gave me like a 12-day vacation with different specific flights and the different like points and
like all the crazy things about that. Google couldn't tell me that. Google's not smart enough
to tell me that, right? So I guess it really depends. If I want to find,
I'm now thinking like, now I reflect upon it, Google has become sort of a yellow pages of
sorts in my brain where it's like, if I need to look or find someone or something or a business
or something I know already exists, I'm looking to Google for that information versus if I want
like straight up intelligence or advice or perspective
or knowledge in general on a topic, then I'm using the chat GPTs and the Groks of the world.
But we'd love to get y'all's perspective on that too.
No, I mean, you're right though. If you want some actual company specific information,
I would for sure go on Google I think for fact checking I used to
Google fact checks a lot that's my biggest thing where I was like oh is this true or what do you
um I dug in I researched more about specific current events on Google before those days are
behind me now so I think that's the psychological change that's probably happening, accelerating right now.
And to go off with Google, like Google got priced like they were a monopoly before.
The other structural tailings I called out, like the AI and like cybersecurity, that's not a monopoly.
That's a massive competitive advantage they have, a presence, but nobody else could do what google did on search and that's why it's
like oof that if that monopoly is over like what happens the behavior you guys described is like
exactly the existential threat because google ads work when you're not sure of what you're looking
for and that's when boom an advertiser is bidding against what you're searching for to pop up so like
in your case austin in the past that might have been the points guy buying ad space you click it you sign up for some program that's how they make
money um so if you just use google as a conduit to a website you're not going through the ads
and that is it is just like a glorified yellow page i think that's the that is the big thing
like google ads work because you are capturing someone at a point where they might, they kind of know what they want, but they're not sure. And an advertiser can get in there with a lot of intent. If you have the intent as the consumer, you might not click a paid ad there, you might just go to the website. And so I think that's, that's the interesting thing they got to figure out. It's like, I don't know, will there be paid ads within these gen AI tools maybe google would be great at that but do people
want that um so we could we could have a whole show on google but it is interesting to think
about like what you guys are saying like your day-to-day activities and backing up be like
wait what is the business impact of this at scale um yeah it's it's it's fascinating let's do
one more check of where we're at in the markets right now.
It looks like we are rebounding still.
So Dow up about 3.38%, S&P up 3.5%, NASDAQ 3.9%.
How do you guys feel going into the day?
I feel a lot better than I felt yesterday, or rather Sunday night,
when the futures were pointing to negative 4.5%.
Yeah, I don't know.
I think, again, dead cat bounce, sell the rip opportunity.
I agree with Shai and Katie here.
I think we're going lower.
I think there's going to be a lot of turbulence in the coming weeks and months as more of these tariff conversations shake out.
coming weeks and months as more of these tariff conversations shake out. I think Trump this
morning was talking about how China really wants a good deal, but they just don't know
how to start the conversation. It's like, okay, so we'll see. There's a lot of stuff to go to here.
But at the end of the day, the most important thing for people listening to do right now is
to have a watch list. They have names that they want to buy at specific prices and they know why that price makes sense
to them if it's a valuation perspective if it's a growth assumption whatever it might be i've got
a watch list i'm sure the two of you have watched list that you're saying hey i want to buy this
stock at this price and i really want to encourage people to have the discipline and the wherewithal
to stay invested you know the only people that get hurt on the roller coaster are the ones that jump off early have a plan and stick to it
shy your thoughts let you close it out for no it's hopefully a green day for all of us
i will say tariffs going to play i'm air quoting tomorrow we'll see if it gets delayed so there is somewhat of a risk uh just keep that in mind of a
intraday fade uh of profit taking but yeah i mean i just said that spy was oversold
uh at 20 on the weekly uh 25 on the weekly charts now they're at 35 so the mean is usually like i
think around 45 to 50 so like this is a great recovery where it's not over.
But there's no real issue taking some chips off the table to see how tomorrow's going to play out.
Because tomorrow is tariff day.
So we'll see.
Tariff day.
All right.
Well, we will be back tomorrow at 9 a.m. Eastern right here.
As always, you can get answers in StockTwits. Click on the What's
Trending. Listen to earnings calls to Shai's point. Listen closely to those earnings calls.
And we will be here tomorrow to figure out whatever's going on tomorrow. So thank you
everyone for joining in and we'll see you next time. Thanks everyone. Sorry my camera sucks.
