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🟡 DAILY RIP LIVE - SPECIAL GUEST DAN IVES
Recorded: April 4, 2025 Duration: 0:37:05Space Recording
Short Summary
Market analysts discuss the current downturn, with QQQ entering a bear market and expectations of a Fed response. Despite the decline, there are indications of potential growth opportunities, particularly in crypto and resilient stocks.
Full Transcription
so I'm going to go ahead and get started. so so Wow, good morning, StockTwitsNation.
Good morning, bad morning, bloody morning.
The markets are down again.
That's why we have basically the Avengers here.
We need as many humans as possible to figure out what the hell is going on.
So with us today, we got Ace the Kid, of course, Michael Knauss and Shai Ballor.
And joining us in just a few minutes, probably after he's going to send another manifesto on Twitter, is Dan Ives of Wedbush.
So we have a lot to talk about.
Usually Shai and I, during the week, we chit-chat a little bit.
We're just going to get into it.
I'm just going to start with you, Shai.
Rapid reaction to what happened yesterday and
what you're seeing today. Well, QQQ just entered a bear market this morning. So looking at that
setup, it's pretty bearish. I mean, it's also what camp are you in right now? Do you think that
this down, like I believe this downturn really isn't macro. It's a collision of politics and
pricing. I think that the market is bracing for a tariff increase that they just clearly weren't
expecting like who underwrote china being a 54 percent um 30 35 percent on taiwan's semiconductors
like these are way above all initial estimates so i do think like we are entering a bear market
which is somewhat worrisome but but the tenure is rolling over.
Like that was the whole initial goal from Trump high stakes poker game.
And oil is also coming down to OPEC raising production.
Like I do think the Fed is going to be under a severe microscope and under pressure to ease.
And it might just take one or two circuit breaker moves in the equities to make that final push for Powell
to go the full dovish when he speaks today.
And I do think that stage sets up
for a pretty vicious rebound
because if negotiations move forward,
if tariffs are scaled back
because this is a negotiation tactic,
even modestly,
that's enough to justify an oversold nature bounce.
And do you guys have any thoughts on what you think powell is going to say today is he going to keep it neutral or is he do
you think he's going to come in hot well it's usually always always pretty volatile so i would
expect some volatility for sure no matter what data dependent yeah you do a drinking game i'm
gonna every time he's asked something and responds with data dependent,
take a shot and just end your Friday early.
Cause I think that's the guy has to hate all this,
right?
He just wants to,
I got my two levers to pull,
right?
I've got my quantitative easing and tightening.
I've got my rates and just leave me out of all this,
this other craziness.
Can you imagine if he,
his walkout song was
Fuck Donald Trump by YG?
That would be funny.
Wait.
Whatever they pay that man, it's not enough.
Because he's this economics nerd, right?
He just wants to play with his little models and whatever.
And then now he has to deal with all this again.
Right.
He's done.
That's the thing that I want to always bring people back to.
All this happened before.
We had trade wars with China.
We had Trump bullying J-Pow on Twitter.
Happened 2018, 2019.
Look at the chart.
Looks pretty much like it looks like now, which is wasn't a lot of fun.
Ruined a lot of Christmases.
Yeah, he's just I'm saying now he's doubling down.
Trump saying his vowing his policies, quote, never change, which doesn't seem factually
accurate.
But it sounds like, you know, he could give a damn about what China's doing.
But let's flip to that.
We have a 34 percent tariff slapped back our way.
Jordan, what did you see that one coming?
Is that something that was expected
for you or is this new news? Honestly, I expect it just with everything going on. I expect the
most crazy and the most chaotic way of doing things to kind of come about. But I think that's
bringing all this uncertainty in the market. And you can look at it two ways. You can look at it from a negative perspective or you can look at it from a positive perspective and
i just ask everybody to throw spy on a yearly chart and tell me what you've seen from every
negative catalyst ever and we've always rebalanced to all-time highs since that so i do think all of
this is a buying opportunity i don't necessarily think this is the bottom right here right now but
i do think the market can come in but much more But at the end of the day, these are the prices that everybody's been waiting for.
Everybody wanted NVIDIA under, you know, 100 bucks. And like now all these prices are here
and nobody wants to touch it. And it's just, it's funny. You see, the stock market is like the only
market in the world where people run from a discount. So I'm loving this trading the short
term. The opportunity is amazing with all the volatility we have. And it's just more opportunity for us to pick up lower prices for our long-term
investments. So I think it's a great market aside from the political side of things. I think just
putting your blinders on, not worrying too much about that and just playing the charts is the
best thing I can do for myself at the moment. And I think for a lot of investors, that's probably
the best bet. But we'll see what happens.
Like a ray of sunshine in a world so dark. Michael, Shai, are you as optimistic as Jordan here,
or are you feeling a little different?
We are screwed. Run away. No, I mean, time horizon is all about time horizons. If you
guys are five plus year out investors, this is the opportunity a lot of people have been communicating. They've been dreaming of
entering this year. If you're a short term trader, even in the medium term, or you have a fixed
portfolio that you can't really have a DCA plan of cash infusion, weekly, monthly, it's slightly
worse. You'd probably should raise some capital and stay on the sidelines until the noise clears,
until these key moving averages stop sloping down and you wait for that to buck back up.
But if you're something like an anecdotal experience for me, I have cash coming in every single week.
I've been slowly adding.
I have a big cash position, 20% right now.
I'm still adding.
Today, it feels capitulary a bit pre-market. It thinks
maybe we'll get a circuit breaker because the VIX is at 50. That's a black swanny when it hits 50.
So that's typically an indicator to me, add, because there's FUD and fear in the market right
now. And there's going to be some kind of relief bounce, especially in a policy-driven sell-off.
Those are the easiest levers to turn when the market looks like it's just blood blood blood so i've been adding
uh i'm gonna be more aggressive today and hopefully my cash position will probably be
like 10 or 12 percent with some deals today michael how about you i couldn't agree more
you gotta zoom you gotta chill out you gotta. You got to realize every time we have these giant fixed rallies, at some point, there's a bottom.
I think you hit the nail on the head.
It's all about time frame.
If you're looking to buy something and sell it a couple weeks later, this might not be the time, right?
Wait for things to calm down a little bit.
But if you're a long-term investor, especially if you're young, this is this is what
you want. You want crashes. And, you know, the people who bought into them, again, I'm old enough
that I was here in 2008, where there was people who generational wealth was made buying banks in
2008. It's 2020. Imagine buying zoom and Peloton and all these names. So for me, as a technician,
I'm just looking for what is not being sold and i'm just
dipping my toe into those knowing that when the market calms down those are probably going to be
the areas that do the best so yeah make your shopping list now you don't have to pull the
trigger right now but it's it's this is the time to work it's time to get to work also just adding
some more color to that like guys the fourth industrial revolution is still here it doesn't
last only a couple weeks a couple months like this sell-off like we're seeing a sell-off
right now that's not based on broken fundamentals it purely is on a narrative deterioration and all
it takes is some kind of stable stabilization in the narrative to trigger a powerful re-rating
across the board and the bar for q1 earnings is as low as i could remember in quite
some time so if you see companies like the nvidia's out there the palantir's the metas like
if they simply guide in line not race just in line not blood expectations just be good enough
just hold the line we could see some violent upside moves and names that have been over
oversold purely in fear on something that really hasn't materialized yet.
It's just front running on an aggressive side.
So that screams opportunity for me.
But also every investor is different in their time horizon, risk profile, and how much cash they can infuse into their portfolio.
So that has to be factored in.
So where are you guys seeing the opportunities right now?
I mean, we go back to 2020.
It seemed very obvious.
It's like, okay, we're all inside. Like it was the stay at home move. What is the play here? seeing the opportunities right now i mean we go back to 2020 it seemed very obvious like okay
we're all inside like it was the stay at home move what is what is the play here i see people
sharing out philip morris charts campbell soups what are what are some of the pockets of opportunity
that you're looking for as things like tech are just getting beat down yeah philip morris looks
great actually i just brought up the chart. That chart looks
fantastic. So yeah, things like that. For me personally, it's just you look at things like
yesterday, you can run a basic scan, show me all the stocks that weren't down yesterday. That's a
great hunting ground, right? Show me all the stocks that aren't down this month. You might
not think that there's many, but I ran a scan that says, okay, show me all the stocks that are above
their March lows. There was in the Russell 3000, there was 450. So that's what I'm going to do
this weekend. I'm going to go through all 450 and find some opportunity. It's one of those,
it's out there. You just got to look, you got to hunt, right?
What about you, Jordan?
I'm taking it a lot more simply at the end.
I sold a lot of individual names that I was holding from last year.
I'm not going to say I'm this amazing investor.
I got very lucky with a lot of the positions I took. I positioned myself correctly in 2022 during the dip.
And I had a lot of individual names that did me very well.
And I took those off and basically was just de-risking.
And so now what I'm looking for is sheerly just to put
that money into the SPY. I'm not looking at individual names anymore. The only individual
name I do hold now is Tesla because I love my Tesla and I don't want to sell that. But everything
else is gone. And I'm just focused on the SPY and QQQ ETFs because for me, I'm definitely more
focused on the short-term price action as like a day trader and a futures trader. So my focus is put towards that for the majority of the time. So just buying dips on the
ETFs makes things a lot more simple and just, hey, when we're at my spots, cool, I'm throwing cash in
and otherwise I'm not too worried about it. I try and keep those, the two accounts very separate
because if I'm looking at my long-term all the time, like for instance, this morning, you're
just so worried about it, right? But if I can trade the short-term and I'm looking at my long-term all the time, like for instance, this morning, you're just so worried about it, right?
But if I can trade the short-term
and I'm worried about that,
and then I can have my levels ready to go on VU,
which is the SPY and QQQ,
it just makes it a lot easier to go through these dips.
And that's what I would say for people in the chat to do.
If you struggle heavily with these long-term holds,
but you're also trading throughout the intraday,
I mean, keep the two separate and just understand, hey, the long-term is five plus, 10 plus years
out. Things are going to come down. And when there are opportunities, I have to take advantage of
them. And in the meanwhile, we'll trade during the short term and have a blast making some money
during the short term. So I just think, again, it is a beautiful market right now. I know a lot of
people, there's just so much uncertainty and people are freaking out, but this is exactly what we want.
As Michael now said, especially if you're under 30 right now, this is the time. I mean,
to stack cash and take advantage of these dips in the market. Again, I don't think this is,
by all means, the bottom of the market or the bottom of the year, but I mean, this is the time
to start scaling in. And with the ETF, something like DCAing but i mean it's this is the time to start scaling in
and with the etf something like dcaing i think that's very viable um and then having those spots
where you want to put some bigger limit orders in i that's exactly what i'm doing so we'll see how
it works out it worked out in 2022 but i was doing it with a lot more individual names so
we'll see how it goes just using spy shy i want to get your take on something with the china
tariffs because i read there
speaking of this the industrial revolution that you talk about all the time and ai the the tariff
specifically on the raw earth materials is that are those the things that we're we're needing to
get from china to power um all these systems or do you have any have you seen that that headline like does that affect
uh how how deeply does that affect tech and how deeply does that affect your thesis
on this fourth industrial revolution it doesn't affect it too much we have there's competitors
or just names out there like mp materials that kind of offer very earth material in the u.s so
we don't have to go straight to the east to get that um i think it'd be
substantial if we didn't have names like mp to provide that to us but i don't think it's too
destructive but to going off of your point on the initial question as well is like how am i
identifying which names to add in this environment you guys are all uh all the listeners know that
i'm a thematic investor the long-term time horizon
so like i focus on long-term narratives not short-term price movements which is essentially
this is exactly what that entails is short-term price movements nothing on the fourth industrial
revolution not happening so i do think that uh i'm focusing on names that are stocks that aren't
chasing temporary fads they're architects of structural shifts that will take years,
sometimes decades to play out.
And when it does, there's a ton of runway
that they're going to become the new max sevens.
I don't want to say new trillion dollar companies,
but they're going to become the new phase of mega cap companies.
So some of the questions I ask myself, like, do they have a mo?
Is it based on scale?
Is it based on customer loyalty, sticky ecosystem, or some kind of unique logistics network that
have these black swan policy impacts?
Can they control the risk costs associated internally so they have to go externally to
third parties?
So I think there's a lot of digging that a lot of investors need to do now to figure
out, like, not just the financials,
not the technicals, but the actual ethos or thematic or ecosystem of each company to see
what are the barriers of entry for competitors to enter that space? How defensible is that moat?
Because usually those are the levers that can cause pricing powers. When things are going up
and up, they can match that incremental costs and even
do more because of that pricing power that they have with that sticky ecosystem that can't be
replicated it's like the palantir like we're going to talk to dan ives pretty soon i i a couple names
that he loves i've been massive bulls on for years like palantir's aip is infused into so many
different companies operating systems like that can't be replicated.
You're seeing Tesla try to scale autonomy that nobody could have ever dreamed about.
And that can't be replicated.
You can say, fine, Google Waymo.
But that's a very small box to the sandbox that Tesla's trying to solve.
So I'm excited.
I think there's going to be some real deals in Q2.
I don't think the selling's over. And have that dry powder ready and that list prepared.
Yeah. Michael, I want to flip over to crypto. I know you dabble in this space. What's going on in crypto land today? How's the crypto world reacting to the macro environment?
environment? Insanely well, right? If you chart crypto versus the queues normally, it's like,
it's a pretty much a one to one relationship, right? Bitcoin in particular being a leveraged,
looks like just a leveraged version of the queues. However, right, talk about, you know,
anchoring to that March low. We're well above that in crypto, it's flat a little bit,
Bitcoin's doing well, a lot of these meme coins are actually doing
fine. I went through and looked at a list yesterday. And, you know, some of the weirder
ones, right? Pepe is up four and a half percent. Fark coin's up. Doge is up 1.3 percent right now.
Atom is up 5 percent. So across the board, we're actually just seeing a lot of decent crypto action out there.
And, you know, crypto wasn't a safe haven in 2020.
It wasn't a safe haven in 2022, 2023.
Yes, it's down a lot on a percentage basis from highs, but that's what you expect with Bitcoin.
But for Liberation Day, it didn't care.
It didn't move that much.
It was actually up a little bit yesterday and a boat flat today.
So one of those things that maybe now finally people are using it as a place to go, I think
maybe because gold's a little bit overextended.
So people are looking for places to put their money.
Gold, you know, you kind of miss the boat a little bit with.
So people might be moving a little bit into crypto.
Yeah.
I was just going to pull up
the gold price too, because that also is down and went down yesterday. So Michael, your take on that
is it's overplayed. People are looking for other places to put their money right now.
Yeah, because bonds aren't helping, right? TLT was down yesterday, right? It was down the day before. So during this craziness,
bonds were not helping. Gold, yes, it's been doing fantastic, but it was still down today. So
people, we got to remember, large institutions, generally speaking, they have to be invested
somewhere. They're not allowed to be in cash like we are. So where are they going? Looks like some of it's going into Bitcoin right now.
And again, could be a place to hold that value
until they're looking to redeploy it later.
So we were talking about relative strength in other places.
Well, I'm looking at like Robinhood.
I mean, how much is that going to benefit Robinhood?
It's still above its 200-day moving average,
didn't participate as much in the sell-off
as a lot of things out there so you know if crypto is going to hold for us that are are mainly stock
investors there's a lot of places to look now either the etfs or robin hood coinbase places
like that that you could find that are stocks that you know if crypto is going to hold could
actually be good places to put our money in the meantime. That's actually a great point looking back to 2020 even that that was where that all that growth came from on those brokerage platforms.
So and even in 2022, it wasn't as dramatic, but it will be interesting to see in their next earnings calls what what the usage and behavior looks like, because, of course, they're making a lot of money on on the transactions.
Let's move over to see what's trending on uh on stock twits it feels like everything's
trending i feel like the chat's popping off guys dan's coming soon do not worry this is not
someone asked if it was clickbait it's not clickbait we would not do that to you uh he
will be here soon um but yeah let's look at so shy you tweeted about nvidia how how how significant is this
drop below 100 uh for nvidia it's pretty significant because my favorite um level for
nvidia was always the anchorage vwap from january 2024 if you use that for the past year every time
it's dip it's bounce off that level april 2024 bounce
yankei trade crisis august 2024 bounce even like the beginning of march it bounced there
we sliced right through that so there is somewhat of an air pocket right now for nvidia um once it
broke the psychological level of 100 once it sliced through the 105 level and grabbed vwap there is a vacuum right now on where
is it going to fill essentially so i think i mean the 100 week sma level is at 89 bucks
so i think i don't know i could see going there but i am nvidia is just such a narrative problem
i think there's going to be something substantially like it's going to take an earnings report for them to like really buck the narrative issue.
But technically speaking, there is a big volume shelf at $89 that course that correlates with that hundred week SMA level that I could see if things his circuit breaker level, they break 90 and that might be a bounce spot.
And I'd maybe go look for a trade there to
be honest like i think nvidia is not going anywhere at all yeah uh jordan you seem very chill locked
in i feel like you're multitasking over there which is like oh i'm always looking at these charts i
know i think it's like amazing because you're just like f it like oh yeah i'm chill you guys are
crazy uh is that so you're you're in your you're in your bag you're in your zone right now but is You're just like, F it. Like, I'm chill. You guys are crazy.
So you're in your bag.
You're in your zone right now.
But is there anything else you're kind of looking for signal-wise or watching as you are playing the game here today?
I guess I do want to see what happens with Tesla today.
Tesla does love its Fridays.
And it's been holding up, kind of just going sideways for the most part on the daily.
So I'm kind of interested to see if it gets anything going today.
And obviously, if Tesla is ripping or tanking, that's definitely a bit of a catalyst for QQQ and the NASDAQ.
So definitely want to keep an eye on what Tesla is doing.
But we've just been going sideways.
That's why I'm excited Dan Ives is coming on, too.
I know he loves Tesla. I want to get his thoughts because we've kind of just been doing nothing here at the bottom of this range since we hit that
217 area. Interested to see where we're going to go from here. But just for the morning,
looking at NASDAQ, I mean, I'm kind of expecting a bounce this morning as of what I'm seeing now.
We came down into a big area. We've hit targets for a lot of the bigger shorts from the past two weeks.
So, you know, I'd like to see some buying step in today, but I don't know for sure.
It's looking really weak right now in the pre-market.
We're making these higher lows, trying to get the structure changing, but it looks weak.
I don't see any real strength.
So I want to see how the morning goes, see if we can get some real strength going.
Maybe we can actually hold the low that we made today and get some buying going. But the weekly profile for this
week has played out exactly how last week has, which is Monday, Tuesday, we're a manipulation
of price to the upside to just bring it lower. Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, Wednesday was the
Wednesday was the high of the week. And that was the last two weeks, we've seen that exact model
high of the week. And that was the last two weeks we've seen that exact model play out.
play out. And so, you know, not surprised to see the market down even more today. And but I would
like to see a retracement back down since we've had that profile play out two times in a row.
That's just not normal from what I've seen in the market. So would like to see a retracement. But
again, I've said this for two weeks, everybody loves to think oh the market just can't go lower we're down 11 12 this or that we can't go lower we absolutely can go
lower i'm all for you know taking part in the dip on the long-term side of things but short-term you
have to realize that it's extremely hard to pick bottom you're probably not gonna do it and even
if you do you're probably gonna take losses so many times up to the time that you finally get right that it's not even worth it.
Like, okay, you're right now, but who cares?
You were wrong so many times before, and how much money have you lost on those times?
Are you going to be able to make that back on the winners, right?
So at the end of the day, this market can always go lower.
Don't think for a second that it can't because that's exactly when the market's going to show you, hey'm going to make new lows and i'm going to keep going and scare the crap out of you right and
that's what you're seeing in this whole market and again it's just funny put it puts by on a yearly
chart and it seems like we haven't even made a dent in the moves up that we've made right so
it's all in context it's all a matter of your time frame and how you're trading obviously
everybody's different so everybody might have different thoughts there but i think again mass freak out is not the way to
react to this in my opinion right we have to take it and say hey this is happening for a reason
right and how can we be a savage and take advantage of it instead of like whine and cry
about it right you see everybody just whining about it it's like okay i understand but this is happening and it's going to happen no matter what so how about we figure out how to make
as much money as possible from it and set ourselves up for the future and that's that's all i'm
interested in right now um with the charts so i want to put that speech to like the battle hymn
of the republic or something and just blast it to the airwaves um well speaking of could things get worse so jp morgan
they lift their recession odds to 60 i think it was 20 like 10 days ago uh either them or
a different another bank put it there bullish uh you think you i guess raise your hand do you guys
think it's higher than 60 raise your hand if you think it's higher than 60 i think it's it's 90
if it lasts more than six six months if it's less than three months
it's not no recession so like I think that's like fitting in the middle of like time frame on how
long this if this is a bite not bark um I just don't think that Trump his ego is too big to cause
a man-made recession to be honest like I just don't think that's gonna happen
Michael you said bullish you mean you're bullish on recession or bullish?
Every time the bags come out and start to pick, and it's funny, it's actually taught in the CMT
curriculum, the magazine indicator. As soon as we start to see economists on the economists that,
hey, it's a bad market. As soon as JP Morgan starts to say, hey, we're definitely going into a recession,
all of those, those are very bottomy things, right?
The analysts turn bullish only when it's about time to buy.
So I'm looking for more of that.
Again, I'm with Jordan.
This thing could certainly go much lower.
You know, we're getting 5% down days.
It definitely could go lower.
I just think it's one of those times
where it's too late for me to short. So I
have to start looking for stuff to buy and kind of waiting for those particular moments. So yeah,
the more we see Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan, all these guys turning bearish, the more bullish I
get, right? I wish I had an indicator for that. But yeah, as soon as we see the Economist and we see the cover on The Economist
talking about how the market's dead and Trump killed the market, that will probably be the
time you jump in with both feet. But if it's only JP Morgan so far, then it might be a little bit
more time to go. It's funny you mentioned that, Michael, because at the beginning of the year,
all those analysts were extremely bullish at the beginning of the year. And now they're all flipping. Might give you a little tell on something, huh?
They're all backwards looking. That's the thing. Whenever they follow the momo,
it's as crazy as it sounds. They don't want to stick their neck out. Why would they?
They don't get paid to do that. So it's always backward looking. And that's why
typically when Kramer says a comment, for example, it's because the mover has been made it's been priced in so that's why the inverse occurs all
the time when kramer says something like just know this about this game yeah everyone chases price
everyone's a closet technician following trends uh it's just us technicians are we're out in the
open with it right i have no idea what's going to happen, but when the trend changes and starts to point higher, then I'll start to buy stocks until then.
But yeah, you'll get more and more of this.
You'll start hearing like back when I used to day trade full time on a prop desk at a hedge fund.
One of our favorite indicators was the market turmoil, the CNBC market turmoil.
You could almost guarantee that
that was near a low and then it was time to start lagging in the stocks. By the third market turmoil
cast, then you knew it was time to go in. It was time to buy.
Do you think it's effed up though, to be honest? I was a college student who actually relied on
these figureheads on speaking on what's going to happen in the markets. Like I participated when they verbally said something.
I was always behind.
I was always holding the bag or like I was like, I'm negative.
Like that it's frustrating to see, but it's really important to hear what Michael's saying,
what we're all saying on these talking points are backwards looking.
You have to get from the moves.
And I was a college student and I was trading at a desk all day.
One of the things that I would do is Kramer came on at 3.30 in the afternoon.
He would come on and there's literally a floor of people managing millions of dollars waiting for him to talk about a stock and just taking the other side of that trade intraday.
And it was a way to make money even back then.
So it's one of those, we used to do it physically.
Now I'm a quantitative trader.
So now robots do those, that kind of thing.
And it's just the way it works.
By the time it's gotten to his editors and it's gone through all the channels and then
he talks about it, you're just at the end of a trend that's been existing for some time or else he wouldn't be
talking about it. Yeah. As we close the opening bell, I want to kind of shine. I talk about this
sometimes this the tariffs taking our medicine. I think, Shai, you've likened it to Ozempic.
So I feel like it's like more like ayahuasca now. Is it what is it cyanide? But the post from Trump this morning was very metaphorical.
He said the operation is over.
The patient lived.
It's healing.
Prognosis is that the patient will be far stronger, better, more resilient.
Shai, do you still think this is like Ozempic or do you think it's something else?
And then I'll flip it to you, Michael and Jordan.
I think he's just grasping at
a lot of leverage I don't think he even knows specifics on what that's like I don't know what
the hell that means I just like I know big pharma it's just big pharma he's gonna tackle and I just
think he's pulling out all these brute force levers to overwhelm the environment the reality
to force his force everyone's hand like he just made a comment
right now like china just played their their cards wrong on retaliation so now there's probably
going to be some other retaliation that trump's going to do on top of that like until someone
breaks and i can tell you guys this the u.s will not break so like it's just going to be at the
expense of investors consumers until everyone else kind of waves a white flag a bit or they start
negotiating. But in that meantime, it's going to get ugly. QQQ is going to break 400. It's going
to get bear market environments. And I just know in the long run, which again, we're long-term
investors, we will be fine. It will bounce. Nobody knows when, but it will. But don't get greedy. Live to trade
another day and just be cautious. Michael Jordan, what do you think? Do you think this is
like the reset moment, or is this something worse? And not even politically, just looking at what
you're seeing in the numbers. I think short-term pain for long-term gain at the end of the day, right?
We need interest rates down.
There's a big camp of people that think all this uncertainty is sheerly to bring those interest rate down and get people to start buying bonds, which I definitely can agree with to an extent.
So at the end of the day, I think that's all it is.
I mean, we had a
very over inflated market these past four years i mean everybody we all talked about it too that's
what's funny everybody we all talked about it we're all trading it we're ripping off war news
and everybody is saying like oh we shouldn't be ripping we shouldn't be going this high we
shouldn't be going this far um and to me i I was just, oh, that bell's still going.
Oh, there we go. That bell was going for a minute. They really want to let us know that it's time to
lose money. Or make money if you're you, Jordan. But it's just, it's interesting because to me,
it's just, we're rebalancing completely from what was created these past four years, right? It's
just a simple rebalance of
we were ripping when we had all these wars going on. Everybody was saying, hey,
we should not be going this high, but we are, right? I was just following price action. I knew,
you know, fundamentally, we probably shouldn't be going this far this fast, but that's what
we're doing. So I'm just going to play the charts. But now everything's starting to actually feel the
effects of these past four years. And I mean, I think trump's trying to fix that right i mean he's bringing in he he's
saying no we're eliminating all this spending we're bringing down the debt and we're gonna try
and fix things at the end of the day so i mean i'm trying to take advantage of that i think that's
exactly what's happening even if it's not let's say that's not what's happening either way it
doesn't matter the market's still dipping The market's still giving us opportunities. So
as for the reason why things might be happening, I mean, I have my thoughts, but I don't really
care. It doesn't matter. Prices are coming in. That's all that matters. So we want to take
advantage of those. The reasoning why, it's just like, I mean, again, look at every negative
catalyst for the market over the past years. And it's like, do you really care what happened and why it happened?
Or were you just trying to take advantage of the opportunity?
And that's where I'm at.
I just, no emotion, blinders on, strictly facts and logic.
Yeah, just ice cold.
Ice cold, no mistakes.
Oh yeah.
R.P. Val Kilmer, may he rest.
Michael, what's your read?
Because I think you guys are all bringing up an interesting point,
which is looking at the longer term.
And there's been a lot of conversation of how long is it going to take
to actually get this manufacturing muscle back up and running in the US?
You got to build things.
You got to hire people.
You got to train people.
Years.
Long time.
How many years?
Two?
Ten?
This decade.
Let's cross your fingers if it happens this decade. It takes two to three years. Two, ten. This decade, let's cross your fingers if it happens this decade.
It takes two to three years minimum.
If it happened today, it's going to take two to three years just to put the infrastructure in place.
The execution alone is going to be another couple of years.
It's going to take a long time.
We put a man on the moon.
I don't think it will get that far.
I think it's going to get to the point where there's going to be enough pain.
He's going to get some concessions from these other countries, declare victory,
and we'll be here next year talking about something completely different.
I don't think it's one of those that it's going to exist for his entire four-year term.
You know, you guys have midterms coming up, all that kind of stuff.
So things need to change
at some point. So yeah, I think at some point you're going to get some sort of, I had a great
meeting with XYZ person from this country and we're lifting the tariffs. And then as long as
he has something to show with it out the other end to kind of maintain political capital and all that,
then we just move on to whatever's next in the market. What is happening?
we just move on to whatever whatever's next in the market what is happening what is happening shy
what are you looking at one of my socks no one of my stocks is like up three percent green i'm like
wait there's something green what's green digital ocean digital ocean ticker d-o-c-n it's a small
cap pure computing play that's a weird move i'm trying to figure out why that is. Sorry, that's all I was saying.
But regarding, yeah.
No, I love that.
If you guys are seeing anything randomly in your portfolios and you just want to clue us in, do it.
Go ahead, Chey.
No, I mean, let's see semi-electors.
I think SMH is getting whacked right now.
And there's some discounts potentially in like, wow, ARM is at 90 bucks almost that's interesting um
asml is not catching that much of a heat which is surprising because they have that exposure
in china revenue like a decent amount so they're holding on pretty strong but smh is just that was
one of the better shorts to do the etfs last week. Technically speaking, it was ugly and that setup was just there.
But we're in the fourth industrial revolution.
You have to ask yourself, some of these components of these semiconductor ecosystems, there's
bottlenecks right now.
There's pricing power right now.
And the networking component like Broadcoms, Marvell, Estera Labs, that's where the hot
pocket is.
And there's also from the China.
