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DO WE TRUST THIS RALLY? | STOCK MARKET TALK
Recorded: April 1, 2026 Duration: 2:22:52Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. What is up?
What is up, everybody?
Hello.
Welcome to the spaces.
I hope you guys are all doing well.
Maybe a little bit off the highs, but still a green day.
Not so bad, not so bad.
A little follow through here.
Nice to see.
I hope everyone is doing well, though.
I appreciate you guys all for joining us.
Shout out to Brian Lund for the first one being on stage.
Beating Options Mike today.
Suck it, loser.
Get second place.
Wow, I thought one of you guys would comment there.
Beating Options Mike. No, I'm just going to let that stay out there with no comment.
All right, there we go.
But yeah, it's a nice little green day in the market.
There was a couple of news stories today.
SpaceX finally filing for that IPO uh ipo i don't
know what i was trying to say there options might get rugged we did also have eli lily they got
approval of uh a weight loss drug pill interesting they're joining nova nordisk how did that end up
playing out here in a little bit eli lily where's this at? Up 4%. Micro was the best performing name on my watch
list. Stock was up 10%, 12%. Now it is up 8.5% at 366. Nike was the worst performing stock on my
watch list. Getting hit a little bit. Nike could be doing better. It's still down. It's down 15%
now. I saw we get a little analyst, a couple analysts,
price target downgrades.
Bank of America downgraded it to neutral from hold.
I'm sorry, neutral from overperform.
So Nike stocks struggling today off of some weak numbers,
stocks hanging out around $44.
Start of the week, it was at $54.
Did you know that if you had invested $10,000 into Nike stock and held to today,
you would currently roughly have $3,400?
Could be better.
Nike stock is a name that has been struggling a little bit.
Like I was saying, SpaceX, they filed for IPO.
It looks like they're on target for a June IPO coming up.
Apparently April 21st, they are doing an Invest investor day event to get a little bit of information.
Surprised they didn't do 420.
That would have been more on brand for Elon.
Obviously, a lot of stuff going on in the macro in Iran, Strait of Hormuz, part of the world.
There were some comments from Trump this morning.
There were some comments from the other side saying, but maybe the other side of stuff. There is a President Trump speaking tonight at 9pm Eastern, around 9pm Eastern.
So be on the lookout for that.
I saw Intel was moving up.
They had a little headline that they bought back a facility from Apollo Global.
Apollo Global bought from Apollo Global for $14.2 billion.
49% equity stake that they bought back in their
fab fab 34 in Ireland what I thought was a little interesting here is Apollo and their affiliates
bought the 49% stake in 2024 for 11.2 billion dollars and we just had Intel coming in and
buying it back for 14.2 billion so a little bit of money being made there i see some of our friends
down below wolfie and monotone urkel i sent you guys invites feel free to come up and hang out
we do have you mr options mike i thought maybe you kicked me after making fun of me so you know
yeah yeah it would have let you say something and then kicked you there you go we did also have a
couple more headlines tesla uh they are going to be giving out their delivery numbers.
Is Tesla going to move off its car numbers?
I don't know.
But I actually was seeing some of the European registrations,
and they're up pretty aggressively in March.
And I'm sure the Europeans are no fan of Elon Musk at this point in time,
but I'm sure they're less of a fan of these crazy oil prices
and gas prices that are impacting them a little bit in that direction. So Tesla's delivery numbers might be interesting. Only a month of it
was in March after the conflict began, but one to keep an eye on. ADP, US private payrolls,
employment came in a little bit better than expected here this morning, which I know employment
has been maybe not the main focus here,
but it's been the second part of the mandate that people are seeing weaken.
So good to see that number coming a little bit above expectations.
Obviously, initial jobless claims tomorrow and the market being closed on Friday.
But I believe we are still getting NFP out Friday morning, interestingly.
So still some more jobs data to watch out this week.
We had a nice full panel here at the start. How are you doing, Mr. Brian Lund? First one up to the panel. Doing pretty good,
doing pretty good. Looking forward to a long weekend. I think it's funny if you bought Nike
11 years ago, you would be exactly flat and it would be the same if you bought Disney.
Who would have thought 10, 11 years ago that those names would do nothing over a decade?
Do you think that's what happens to Apple?
I think Apple, they just have so many levers to pull.
They have so much cash.
I mean, just look at this.
I don't know how the narrative is going to turn out, but look at AI and look how everyone wrote them off on AI, right? And it looks like they're about ready to do an end around. I mean, that
company, I don't know. I think what will be interesting with Apple is when Tim Cook goes,
whenever he goes, who will be the next person that comes in and what sort of attitude will they have? Will it be just like status quo? We just want to print cash and be a consumer
company or will they start to innovate again? But they certainly have all the elements needed to
just continue to be maybe not a cutting edge innovator, but always a company we're going to think about first. But when it comes to
the market in general, there's a really interesting dynamic. I wrote a, or actually I did my daily
update last week and I said, this market is creating a lot of non-believers. And that means
people that just don't believe that this market can go back up or that we can get to all-time
highs or whatever. And I don't know if we can or we can't, but that's a fool's errand trying to
predict it. I see a lot of people hating on yesterday's rally. I see a lot of people hating
on today's follow-through and saying, this isn't going to stick. This is a fake out. And I just, I don't see the value to playing that game. Like, so what? Like,
what if it does stick or what if it doesn't? What's more important is do you have some sort
of framework which you can analyze the moves in the market to give you an idea? Are the percentages
in your favor? When it comes to the market, there's two extremes. You can invest in Apple
and you'll never lose all your money. You might not do so well, but you won't lose all your money.
Or you can invest in a super speculative biotech and you'll probably lose all your money. And then
in between, there's a wide spectrum of options and percentages and chances. And the better you
can refine your methodology to put the odds in
your favor, the more profitable you're going to be. I would suggest everybody go look at my daily
update video yesterday. It's on my Twitter feed. It's free. And what I did is I walked by step
by step through yesterday's candle to evaluate it on a lot of different metrics to say, okay,
where do we think we are with this candle? How does it stack up against other reversals that we've seen?
What do we think the odds are that this is going to move in our favor?
But at the end of the video, there's no declaration like this is it or this wasn't it.
It's just, okay, here's a piece of the puzzle.
And now we need to see a few other things to give us a better idea of whether that
was it or not. So that's all I'm doing is just taking it day by day, evaluating information in
the market and price action as it comes in, but trying to argue whether that was it, whether that
was the low, or we're going to go back and test it. That's a great discussion to have at the bar with your buddies but i don't really see how it helps anybody make money
hey we'll find out time will surely tell now i'm sitting here thinking i feel
nice about the green good thing we got the first follow day here maybe it's a change of character
getting back into a chop market we'll see i don't know but um i don't know if i'm sitting here
trusting it yeah i gave it a i gave it a b plus uh rating yesterday i think it's got a lot of the
elements you want to see um but then like i said that's just one part of the equation we need a
follow-through day which so far it looks like we're going to get here today.
Then we need a retrace, hopefully as shallow as possible.
And if we get that retrace, then that move after the move will be a better spot, I think,
to try and get involved in some names that have set up.
What's really interesting is even with yesterday's big move and even the follow-through today,
I don't see a commiserate move in a lot of names. Yes, there are some individual things that are doing well, like OPTX, which is something that I've talked about here for months now. But other than that, I don't see the same type of moves in names. We might still get that.
moves in names, we might still get that.
But yeah, right now I give it a B plus on that reversal,
and we'll just see if it can progress to an A plus.
We shall see.
Mr. Monitive, I see you joining us up here nice and early.
How are you doing, sir?
Doing all right, thank you.
How are you guys?
Doing well, doing well.
I think of you as more a little bit
of a longer term maybe swing term trader longer term investor I know I see on the trading spaces
like a little bit but but tell me some of the stuff that you're watching this market I know
it's been an interesting single stock market so I don't know how your style has changed you were away, now you're back maybe it was the perfect time for a trip
tell me more, any of these individual stock stories
interesting, anything you're seeing
I also want to ask you about Micron at some point during this
but yeah
well let me
so first of all
this next two week period
is for me the most interesting
always in terms of data as we set up to start the earnings season.
So officially, we are in the pre-announcement space here for the next two weeks.
And, you know, as the analysts start looking at the data and other sources and non-traditional sources, they're going to tighten up the expectations for the quarter.
So that's, to me, this is a very data analysis-rich period of time.
So that's what I'm spending my time on.
Right now, right, we're standing at about a little over 14% earnings growth
and 9% revenue growth.
I think that's a little rich, but
some of that is crazy when you look at a sector level, right? Over 40% earnings growth expected
in technology. Obviously, that's coming from a handful of mega caps that are that are you know expected to have massive growth so the numbers are
are large i um i am worried that unless they tighten down significantly we might
we might start seeing some potential for uh you know a negative surprise not necessarily huge
misses but certainly you know uh either just meeting or, you know, or not beating convincingly.
So remember, against Q1 of 25,
that was not a slow quarter by any stretch.
So, you know, we are trying to, you know, project a growth against a
very strong quarter. And this is one of the largest
numbers for the last few, four or five quarters now, I think
since 2024 Q4, this is the biggest
growth, minus one quarter, which we did
17% or so.
So expectations are still a little out of line, in my opinion,
and they need to come down significantly.
So the earnings results themselves turn out to be not a negative surprise.
Other than that, within that data, what I still think is going to be an
upside surprise is energy. Energy is expected to be flattish for earnings and a tiny revenue growth.
And given that we've had a whole month in the quarter where the uh where the crude prices have risen significantly and have stayed
elevated i think the expectations are uh you know going to rise and but more importantly i think
companies are going to handily beat very very very low expectations so those are those are my two thoughts on the market as a whole.
But yesterday, I was very surprised.
There was an 8K filing from Snowflake.
So Snowflake had a new CRO that they appointed chief revenue officer. And along with that, they filed an 8K
where they also confirmed their Q1 and full year guidance.
That to me is super bullish.
Forget for a second what that guidance was,
but at the end of the quarter, three, four, five weeks
before their earnings are out to come and confirm
guidance while doing an 8K filing for an officer change is pretty darn bullish. And today there was
a whole bunch of upgrades on CRM and there's a few other things like that. Here is the beginning of
a thesis. I could very well be wrong, which is why I'm saying it's the beginning of a thesis.
The expectations for software is pretty low.
The pullback on software is pretty deep from their highs.
Now, those highs might be meaningless because, you know, it was overvalued potentially.
value potentially. And I agree. I don't deny that for a second. But against low expectations with
And I agree.
I don't deny that for a second.
data starting to confirm that they're likely to make their numbers or better, the possibility of
outperformance within the software side, I think, is higher than the rest of tech, in my opinion.
That's why I'm saying it's the beginnings of a thesis so that's what i'm working on to get more data to see if you know that has any legs but but i
that's that's where i'm leaning to now for significant size swing trades into earnings
but but the um but but but this release from snowflake and uh and today's upgrades on CRM, I'm pretty comfortable that that's a good sign.
Anyway, those are my thoughts.
What are some of the early earnings in the software sector that you'll be watching?
Do you have those in mind or is it just kind of still a couple weeks out, you'll figure it out?
I did start to see companies suggesting when they're
going to be reporting early right it's it's way too early but but among the things i'll be watching
from from the mags um i want to know if anyone is going to come out and say they've had significant
damage in the gulf in gcc and they have to take a write-off for it or something
related to that I actually want to see you know if anyone else comes out with it or anyone not
anyone else anyone actually you know fesses up or if it gets covered under national security I don't
know what what possibly the reason could be, but we've heard that
there have been some...
The only one I've heard publicly was the Amazon one. It seems like multiple times.
I was seeing another report this morning as well.
There was some report that there was a hit on a Microsoft data center too, but this was
a couple of weeks ago, but there was no follow through on that so so might might have just been a rumor but you think about this right expansion
plans have to be on hold insurance has to be through the roof you know planning for any
investment at this point in time in in gcc is going to have to be questioned dramatically
in GCC is going to have to be questioned dramatically, you know,
under different circumstance, under different, you know,
business economic outlook, safety outlook, heck,
than anything that was, you know, prior to this.
And the fact that the partners who might have been funding much of that
expansion are probably going to be busy, you know,
trying to rebuild their countries and water and, you know, airports and other resources prior to, you know, writing big checks for
data centers. So that's something that I'm not, not that it's going to hugely change my mind,
but it's a worry that that i want to know whether this
there's any problem there or not but i think there's a knock-on effect to you know to to
fundraising for uh for data center build from this so
i appreciate you monitors that feels like a a topic wolfie would have some thoughts on
you're watching some of these tech companies building infrastructure in the UAE and in the Gulf region.
Feels like a Wolfie type of thought process.
Nah.
Nah.
I read you wrong.
Yeah.
Not usually.
But I don't think it's a year for tech.
So, no, not for me.
More interested in the...
Is there anything more American than Honeywell?
You can get your AC and your intercontinental ballistic missiles in one place.
I don't know.
Did Boeing make AC?
I mean, Boeing makes the planes.
They got jet engines.
I'm sure they can make an AC unit now.
I don't know, man.
Yeah, I don't know.
But, I mean, Boeing's got data center jets, right?
Or jet engines, right?
So, I don't know.
For me, it's like all of this war stuff.
The more interesting part for me is the structural commodities shift,
whether it's, like, fertilizer, whether it's oil, whether it's like fertilizer, whether it's oil,
whether it's gas, whether it's, you know, net gas.
And today it was Alcoa.
Like all the collateral damage from that stuff,
you need the stuff to actually go into the stuff
to build the stuff online, right?
So that's more where I've been most of the year.
It's where I'm at paying attention to mostly now.
I will say the last week I took advantage of some of these discounts.
Bought Meta on Friday.
Posted it on Twitter when I did.
You know, MU, was it yesterday or the day before?
It all seems like one big day but uh you know
micron bought some calls on the on the dip bought some boeing now that i'm speaking of it um bought
some other stuff too but like i think i think we're in a trade of a trading market more than
we're in a uh investment market and i think the the trend is is clearly from the upper left to the lower right
currently um and i think all the headlines around it seem to be you know if you're if you're gonna
call it nefarious seems to be manipulation uh or it seems to be uh damage control and uh you know
sentiment shifts and i think you could uh map out extremes you
know i've talked about on your space and other spaces before like when the vix rate of change
gets above 50 it's usually some sort of tell for short term uh we've talked about like gamma
positioning you know multiple spaces in here as well and i think that's kind of like the best
guideposts i think brian's right like the best guideposts.
I think Brian's right.
Like you don't want to read too far into stuff
but I do think that like for like longer term trends
so right now, you know, if you back out on the S&P
we've effectively been in a downtrend since the end of February
which is when all this stuff started
and I think we have to like really clearly reclaim above that and specifically the 200
days basically to act as an anchor before we can start talking about like building some
sort of constructive behavior.
If you go out to the QQQ, we've been consolidating since October. We double-topped it in late January, early Feb, and we've been slowly
coming down. Specifically, I think you also got to think about where leadership is. So
leadership is very concisely, like if you go through, anybody who's listening, you go through
my profile, I posted a thing this morning about like sector leadership.
Leadership has been very clearly energy and effectively nothing else.
Right.
So for the last 12 weeks.
So when you see that, it's basically telling you that like you kind of have to like be way better at picking something um or you know you could kind of just throw your hat in the bucket
the energy bucket and you know rising tide lifts all both type of thing um but the more for me the
more important part is um you know under the hood things like financials which are basically kind of
like the lifeblood uh they're they're the worst performing sector right um tech which everybody loves is loves, is like the 9th of the 11th worst.
And then consumer discretionary, which also has a lot of tech in it,
is the 10th worst out of the 11th.
So there's been a real shift,
and the things that people are mostly favorable towards
for the last few years and invested in are no longer there.
And you see how aggressive these moves get,
though. You get like the meta sell off last week on the back of the lawsuit. Google sell off with
it. Google's RSI saw a tweet was like the lowest RSI relative to the S&P since the great financial
crisis. Shows you like how extreme things got really quickly. But yeah, so we get this like
sell off and meta on the back of that lawsuit last week it effectively sells off from 600 down to 520 uh sort of aggressive self in like two days um
goes into an uptrend and that has been in since uh 2024 and you know here we are back revisiting
that gap and you you can flip a coin, right? Flip a coin to Trump tonight,
flip a coin if it's going to gap up tomorrow to try to test that 20 day or gap back down to that
five day and retest that trend. So like, I feel like if you are trading in these extremes, so
when we get to these, whenever we get to these like extreme readings on the bullish side, which
eventually at some point we will, it's a time to like pump the brakes. And then when you get the other way where
things are like the sky is falling, people are telling you oil is going to 300 in a week,
like pump the brakes the other way and try to like find asymmetry in your favor. And
that's kind of like the easiest way I could say it. But like, outside of that, I think the last few years, people have been,
you know, people have been creating drag, that's the best way I could say it,
on their portfolios by just holding, whether it's volatility or holding puts
as hedges. And I think this year, those types of things are brakes, right? So like,
if you just think of your portfolio as a car, you could have a sports car, right? You could have
like a Ferrari, you could have like predominantly tech and all that stuff and make it like a Ferrari
and high beta. But, you know, no matter how fast your car is, you do need the brakes when you when you turn the corner.
So I think, you know, this year, for the better part, given that we've got all these like exogenous things happening in the background, like having brakes, knowing knowing to have the brakes, number one, number two, knowing when to like tap them.
So like when you get to these extremes on the bullish side, you know, adding the protection or like, adding the volatility, like, that's kind of like how I view it. And that's effectively where we're
at. Right now, as of today, like going into today, you know, like I said, I had positions
at medicals that like, you know, compounded in multiples, MU so on. But like, going into
today, for me, it was like, I want to lighten up. And I want to like take off a lot of the
stuff that's on the table.
I don't want to press my bets one way or the other.
I know like, again, I'm going to echo what Brian said.
People like to say, you know, I think we're going to hit this and then we're going to fall.
Like, yeah, it's possible.
It's good to have opinions. But like, I don't want to, I don't want to try to, you know, press into those opinions
and like really like lean into them.
You know, you can nibble things.
So like if you take a look at like Exxon, for example, I think I'm gonna put a number around this,
let me pull it up. Exxon was trading as of Monday opened, it was trading, you know,
basically 17 points higher off the lows today. That's almost 10%. So if you if you're one of those people that
are like, Okay, like I want to like take a nibble. Yeah, exxon came back down to its
prior all time high. And it's 20 day on a effectively a 10% sell off. But it bounced
like a, you know, 567 bucks. Yeah, sure. Is that a way that you could possibly play having
a hedge in case things go crazy in the next couple of days?
Yeah, well, it seems like USO was the tail and was the hedge on, you know, where these conflict issues are going.
So, yeah, that's like a nice little derivative.
So, I think things like that is kind of like how I navigate and think about it.
And then lastly, again, like I mentioned AA at the top,
like there are, you know, casualties on the back of what's happening over there
that, you know, have created these short-term bottlenecks for some of these stocks.
You saw the LNG stuff a few weeks ago with like LNG and VG and GLNG
once one of those gas fields was hit, you know,
effectively now we're rolling off on the LNG back from 300 on LNG, the stock I'm talking about,
basically about a 10% sell off there. But when it when it initially happened, you saw that stock
go from 250 to 300 in like two days and that's not usually how that one
moves uh same thing with vg you saw it go from like 13 bucks to 17 in a matter of like two or
three days so you know when when you get these corrections in some of these names that have
effectively benefited from these short-term bottlenecks you know it's a good way to consider putting on, you know, a small, a small nibble, a small protection edge moving
forward. But secondarily, when you see headlines that like something happened in the region
for like one of these, whether it's AA today, whether it was LNG back then, whether it was
VG back then, it, if you are one of these
people that wants to be active about it, you can trade it using short-term calls or mid-term
calls or something like that.
And that's effectively where we're at.
I don't want to be going into tonight, going to Trump.
I remember what it was like literally one year ago tomorrow, where liberation turned
into liquidation day very quickly um you know and i
don't want to be on either side of that coin tonight so going to tonight i've effectively
taken off like a majority of my short-term stuff whatever i want to own like mid the long term
that i'm comfortable owning independent of like this uh war i'm happy but i don't think it's a time to get too cute um for for various reasons uh
the the least of which being one i don't know what the hell he's gonna do and second of all
like premium across like whether whether it's put premium with the vixen at 25 or whether it's
called premium on the back of like the moves that we just had i think it's going to be a little bit elevated and you can get washed either way it is kind of crazy that we are exactly one
year removed tomorrow from liberation day so i guess they wanted to avoid uh doing on april
fool's day which makes sense but uh last year april 2nd that was liberation day that was the
the start of the crash we were pretty much a year to the day at this point.
I don't know.
Interesting times, interesting signs.
Yeah, but the low of the temper tantrum was on the 8th.
I think two weeks after?
Yeah, not even a week.
That was the lowest close, and then we just went straight up from there.
Liberation Day 2.0.
How are we feeling?
Feeling good.
Feeling great.
Feeling fantastic.
I appreciate you, Wolfie,
for hanging out with us here.
What do you think would have to
change your mind on tech?
Is there any stuff you come in and see?
Like I said,
new information comes in.
I know you're not against the stuff, but what do you think?
Yeah, yeah.
I don't view... So I think the better part of the last six years,
we've effectively kind of been...
We've had the net benefit of an increased appetite for risk,
an increased interest in stock market in general, like retail participation,
and a lot of money that got flooded into the system that just needed to find a place and
they just kind of like gravitated toward tech. And I think there were a lot of like concurrent
tailwinds that kind of built and shaped the last several years, a half decade
plus, you know, really favored tech, right? And I think because of that, people were just able to
just kind of like passively be in a lot of this stuff and just like make, you know, boatloads of
cash. I think right now, like, again, you look at Microsoft,
I don't know, I haven't looked at it,
like the, you know, the leaderboard for losses
on the year for like two weeks now.
But the last I checked,
Microsoft was like leading the way lower out of the mags.
You know, Meta, if you go back to Meta's last quarter,
their last quarter, the stock gapped up on a surprisingly good quarter.
And if you just fast forward, like, what has it been, like two months now?
The, you know, the stock is back below, you know, where the lows were, like, one or two
weeks prior from the quarter.
And when that happened it was
like oh my god what's going on with meta should i sell it should i hold it like that that was
kind of the talking point um so there's just like two examples amazon sitting back towards 200 a lot
you know there's the capex problems um there's there's like all this stuff that's kind of like
what used to be tailwinds for passive investing.
Now, like people are like, okay, show me, right? Like even NVIDIA, excuse me, puts up these like
insane numbers that like everybody expects the thing to go, expects the expectations to be even
higher. Sometimes they surpass them. And then like the stock is like, woohoo for like three or four
days. And then just kind of go sideways, go look at go look at a chart from Nvidia. It's basically gone nowhere since like summer of last year. It's had these, you know, ranges that go above and a little bit below, but effectively just kind of has been trading in a range for, you know, about nine months now.
is it that needs to change? I think we're in a situation where a lot of these, a lot of these
names kind of have like a pull forward number one, a lot of like the bigger stuff. You know,
it's not it's not normal. And I'm using normal in quotes here for, you know, a company that's like
a trillion dollars to double or triple in a couple of years, and then like people keep expecting it
to keep down that that path and that rate. And I and i think you know we're in like some sort of like digestion period number one
on that stuff and number two like expectations get ratcheted up a lot uh and then the most
important part for me uh is like they're the commitments on the capex side, first of all, it's like insane to expect them to put out that kind of money and then be able to make enough money to offset it and then like really have your stocks go up higher.
Second of all, like there's a lot of ancillary derivative businesses that are associated with that stuff, you know.
businesses that are associated with that stuff you know um and so if i had to choose i'd rather
be in the smaller stuff that might get like the tailwind stuff like stock talk uh has talked about
his amcor for example and some other names that other people have talked about so stuff like that
i'd rather be a part of and then the the third one i don't think that we've priced this in yet
or like we've even started to broach this topic but there were a lot of commitments for some of this CAPEX stuff from some of these regional partners in the Middle East that, you know, have been
on the bad receiving end of, you know, this conflict.
So like, take a look at like the UAE, for example, like they've been hit by Iranian
for example, like they've been hit by Iranian drones and things like that, right?
drones and things like that, right?
So like at some point, my concern on that would be like at some point,
if they keep getting hit with stuff, they might have to use some of their
quote-unquote commitments and their money to like take care of stuff domestically for them,
in which case like some of these projects might get pushed out, right? And if you get some of these domestically for them, in which case, like, some of these projects
might get pushed out, right?
And if you get some of these projects getting pushed out,
well, now you've got, like, expectations
that are ratcheted up a little bit higher
than what people are expecting,
at least in the short term.
And so, like, I just kind of, like,
want to see it play out on that front.
And then the last part is, like,
just if I just do bare-bones math,
like, the, you know,
some of the valuations on this stuff I remember
we were in space and like uh I think it was amp he was asking like uh what's what is like are these
things overvalued like people kept dancing around uh you know whether something's overvalued or not
but but like by traditional and historical measures a lot of these names were overvalued going into the end of last year.
And so like, if you get like a reset on a valuation front, which I think in some cases we have,
like, like, if you take a look at like ExxonMobil last week, ExxonMobil on a forward basis was
trading more expensive to NVIDIA, right? And vice versa, NVIDIA was trading cheaper than
ExxonMobil on a forward valuation.
So I think when you get more stuff like that
and valuations become reasonable
and maybe you get some plateauing,
maybe you get some moving average support
or something like that.
From a technical perspective, I'd be on board.
If you get some clarity on like,
okay, whatever this conflict is,
it's not going to affect the global capex spend
any more than people expect.
That's cool.
But beyond that, for me, I still look at tech.
Like I said to you before, I think a few weeks ago, Clear Security, that's a tech company,
right?
It's a service, but it's a tech company.
That was one of my names for the year. And I think it's, you know, I got an added tailwind on the back of the TSA stuff.
But like, you know, as soon as World Cup rolls around and people need to avoid lines and, you know, people want to use it to get into stadiums earlier and stuff like that, that could be a tailwind, right?
So, like, I'm still looking for some of these tech-centric plays.
You know, Iridium is another one I mentioned on here.
RDW, even though it's like defense tech.
I'm still looking, but the tech plays that I'm looking for
are smaller now.
They're not looking at the mega cap stuff.
And I'm looking for things that have a cohesive story
or a cohesive theme or a cohesive fundamental reason
for me to own it, independent of all this
other stuff like this mega cap passive investing stuff. And that's that's kind of like until further
notice. Right. And I think if we ever get back to a rate cutting cycle that doesn't affect yields,
which is the next part, I think I think if I had to push it, if I had to guess it probably
sometime next year. But if we get back to that, then yeah,
all the darling favorite
tech names that everybody's in love
with probably get bid.
But until then, for me, these are all
things that I think are worth
considering.
To quote Shark Tank, for that reason, I'm out.
Good mic drop moment, honestly.
Memorable end.
Sometimes I end my conversations in sentences and we don't know if I'm done or not.
It's a good one.
Monitiv.
I wonder if you have any thoughts
to throw in here off of
what he's been saying there.
No, no, I mean, I don't disagree.
I think you have to be really selective,
even within sectors that are hot or in the right teams.
I think you have to be extremely selective,
far more so than, you know, any of the recent quarters.
And I think it is important to pay more attention to um to financials uh you
know more than ever pure growth is not going to just cut it anymore but uh i don't disagree with
anything wolf said and and you know earlier i'd mentioned the same thing right uh you know half a
trillion dollars or so was pledged by different uh gulf countries either for their own sovereign
trillion dollars or so was pledged by different uh gulf countries either for their own sovereign
um you know data centers or for projects uh you know outside uh including a lot of them in the
us and every one of those needs to be questioned is is is that money really going to show up
um is that is that capital still you know is still liable to be, you know, produced when the partners make the
call. And I very much doubt that it's possible at this point in time, the damage is just
too vast and their needs elsewhere are far too great, right? But, you know, I'll give
you a strange example, right? Qual qualcomm the only data center project that they
talked about was a project in saudi arabia is saudi arabia really going to go ahead and build that
uh you know when they have you know much greater problems to deal with and they have
far less revenue coming in because they're constrained on their exports you know i i'm I wonder if that money just instead of not getting spent it just gets spent on
the market.
I think it's time to reevaluate every one of those. I wonder if that money just, instead of not getting spent, it just gets spent somewhere
else in the world.
So yeah, I mean, do they just kind of transfer stuff more to the US?
That's what I was kind of hinting at.
Like if they've got, so for example, if they've got to spend more money to rebuild some of
this infrastructure that they've had destroyed.
Well, then like all of a sudden they might not have any more money for data centers that they're not going to see a return on for the next five years.
Because if you've got data centers, but like people in your country don't have access to like, you know, consistent clean water, you've got a revolution on your hands, right?
So like, I think we have to see how it plays out.
I'm not calling for, I'm not being alarmist.
I'm not trying to sound the alarm and say the sky is falling.
But I think you have to be measured about it
and say that there were sizable commitments from that region.
And we've seen that any real pullback in commitments
or any real pullback in spend on the data center front effectively
has like a real material hit on some of these names. Second thing is, you know, what Monitor
was saying about some of the software stuff, like if you want to go through the weeds and you,
and you, you know, know the business, like someone like him, he knows those businesses better than I
will, right? So if he wants to go through the weeds and people like Monitor want to go through
the weeds and they've got a better feel for that stuff, I'm sure you can find real values than I will, right? So if he wants to go through the weeds and people like Monod want to go through the weeds
and they've got a better feel for that stuff,
I'm sure you can find real values.
I just know myself,
I'm not going to know more than he will.
So like I can do the math on some stuff.
I could buy some things that I might like.
So there have been times in the last month or two
where I've said that I went long,
like CrowdStrike, some software names.
But I'm not looking personally, I'm not looking to commit, you know, for extended
periods of time on some of these mega cap names, because I personally, my knowledge
base doesn't extend as far as it does in that sector.
So I don't know enough to know like whether or not some of this stuff is temporary, or
whether stuff is going to move forward.
And you guys started this call off by
saying, who would have thought 10, 11 years ago that if you invested in Nike and Disney,
you wouldn't have made any money. And that's effectively my thought process on a lot of
this stuff here. I don't want to find myself in a situation like that. It could be worse,
right? You could lose money, but I don't want to find myself in a situation like that, it could be worse, right? Like you could lose money, but like, I don't want to find myself in a situation
where I think like something is, you know, misvalued, but I don't understand it as well
as I should, or I'm not educated enough to understand as well as I should.
And then now I'm sitting here for five years and I'm stuck in this like stock.
And now it's like, oh, I've lost 20%.
If I get, if I get 15 back, I'll get out.
Like, I don't, I don't want to be in that spot at all.
Yeah. lost 20 if i get if i get 15 back i'll get out like i don't i don't want to be in that spot at all
i hear you it is a very fast changing market nike stock if you bought it five years ago you're down 60 percent 10 12 years ago you're breaking even i think is what brian said right 12 years ago
is the break even point roughly something like that so i don't know i hear what you're saying
the break-even point, roughly something like that.
I don't know.
I hear what you're saying.
I don't want to
hold you to this. Everything changes
quickly. I know we're saying
you're cooling off of it, but you're not
quite saying you think that's going to happen.
Do you think a lot of these large companies,
the Apples of the world,
do you think a lost decade is
more likely than not for Apple as the world? Do you think a lost decade is more likely than not for Apple?
As the stock?
I don't know.
Stuff changes?
But where you're looking right now,
where you're sitting right now?
I mean, so I think one thing
that I find interesting on Apple,
and I don't know how it's going to play out again,
like I don't think I'm educated enough
to make some of this stuff,
is like there's an argument to make
about Apple eventually,
you know, having whatever LLM they want on device and then the device functioning as like your personal, you know, your personal assistant.
There's like there is an argument there and I don't know what that read through is. But outside of Apple, I think if you look at like some of these stocks, some of them are like more than halfway or halfway at a lost decade.
Like look at Tesla stock, for example.
You get these like sharp upsides, sharp downsides, but like zoom out again, like pretty much for the most part of the last five, six years has been stuck in a range, right?
So halfway home.
You know, if I had to say lost decade decade i don't think apple will be a decade i think
i think maybe like half right on apple specifically but um yeah i don't i don't
it doesn't appeal the best way i can answer this just doesn't appeal to me the same way
i treat it i i consider it like a utility right like it's like a utility stock like everybody
needs the cable company or not everybody needs the phone company. And I think
everybody, by and large, needs Apple because of the phone. So if and when that gets disrupted or
displaced, we can have a conversation around that. But yeah, a decade, I'm not willing to say decade,
A decade, I'm not willing to say decade, half decade, sure.
Caveat being the device thing.
What do you think of software?
What do you think of Microsoft?
Is it more in the boat of closer to a lost decade,
or are we less in the boat of saying that and feeling that?
Yeah, I don't, I think if Microsoft's going,
like all of these CapEx intensive names, like I just, I'm't I don't I think if Microsoft's going like all of these CapEx, CapEx intensive
names, like I just I'm not interested, man.
And, you know, Microsoft went through a lost decade plus, I think, on the heels of dot
com.
So if you go back to dot com, like people, I think a lot of people, it's like the net
benefit of of like the last, of the last five to ten years where
more people have participated and they've been excited and they've been rewarded.
But just go take a look at Microsoft between 2005 to 2000.
Shout out Steve Ballmer.
Would you let Steve Ballmer run your company?
Would I?
It depends on the company.
Even the Clippers, he's done a shitty, not a shitty job, he's tried,
but his scandal is pretty not good.
No, it depends on the company.
I don't think I'd let him run my tech company, no.
But yeah, Microsoft, if you go back 99 to 2009, or 2014, excuse me,
basically traded sideways.
And then 2014 breaks out of 60 bucks and here it goes up and up into the right to 400. So like, yeah, I don't I don't think it's something that's going to recover and reclaim an all time high. Again, like there's caveats. One of the caveats here would be like if they decide to pump another seven trillion dollars into the economy.
be like if they decide to pump another seven trillion dollars into the economy and like okay
then you know again all bets are off because everything goes up but if i had to lean one way
or the other i'd lean to sideways to down on a stock like microsoft especially with like uh the
ai revolution and people being able to um you know handle a lot of stuff i'm not talking about
businesses businesses will need this forever uh but I'm talking about individuals being able to use some of the stuff outside of those ecosystems. And then
again, the CapEx thing, how long it's going to take, how much it's going to be, and how long
before they start seeing dividends from it. I don't know. I'm seeing a report for what Trump will be talking about tonight.
Apparently Politico is saying,
Trump to declare Iran war winding down in address tonight.
There's a second part to that.
What is the second part? I haven't seen it yet.
And other nations need to help open the Strait of Hormuz.
There you go. Okay.
Let me get that second part of this as well.
But yeah, I mean,
I feel like that's what the market
is expecting him to say.
Has been over the last little bit.
I don't know if we're seeing
a crazy tick up here,
but that headline did come out
in the last 5-10 minutes, correct?
Or is I just seeing it
in the last 5 minutes?
3.28?
Ooh.
Yeah, that's a 20-minute-old headline.
Yeah, I didn't want to break it too.'s been out for a while hey listen honestly i sometimes i'm distracted brian as you know
sometimes i'm medium distracted sometimes i'm locked in we're in between somewhere between
locked in and medium distracted but enough that i'm not on the timeline going deep into uh
into headlines here.
So, interesting.
You're just a man, and we appreciate you.
I'm trying.
We bought a ping pong table as well that is in my room right behind me.
So I've hit a ball or two against it.
If any of you guys come to anything we're doing, meet up in person,
there's a ping pong table.
Watch out.
I'm going to get rocked.
All right. Do we have your stock
talk I'm here I've been listening I've been listening to you guys chat how's
your ping pong skills quickly I'll be you that's for sure okay well let's get
the challenge going at some point but you got any thoughts on the conversation
here any parts interesting before i ask more specific stuff
no i mean look we're getting follow-through for the first time since the start of the war that's
nice to see um but we're not above the 200 moving average and i know i keep saying that and people
are gonna be like wow that's overly rudimentary that's how markets work markets are pretty
rudimentary um you know generally the more. Markets are pretty rudimentary.
Generally, the more layers you add of analysis, the more you're going to just confuse yourself and overanalyze.
But good things don't happen when markets are below the 200-day moving average.
It's just a pretty age-old saying.
Institutions look at it.
Traders that have been doing this for decades
look at it. It's just a good barometer of sentiment. So is the 50-day. You can kind of
think of the 50-day as caution 0.1 and the 200-day as caution 0.2 if you're really a noob
and you've never looked at a chart before. That's a pretty simple way to think about it.
But when the markets are below the 50-day the 200 day, you're not in a favorable
environment. And so recoveries can happen quickly, can happen in two candles, three candles,
four candles, but the recovery needs to happen is the point. And so I own stocks. I benefit when
we get bounces like this. There's stocks that I don't sell no matter how volatile the markets get.
But as far as opening new positions goes or getting aggressive on the trading side, I'm going to wait for that to happen.
So, again, another good news candle today, if what Trump says tonight the markets like adequately and we're green again tomorrow, you probably get a 200-day recapture.
And if that holds into the close,
that's what you want to see.
And that's where I'd be willing
to maybe throw some darts.
Now, if you look, I said this yesterday,
if you look back at 22,
the hallmark of that year
was rejections at the 200-day moving average.
We're a rocket scientist to see it.
You can just scroll back and look at it. It's there
in front of your eyes. It's not me
talking about some sort of
astrology.
Yeah. The 200-day
moving average. We're not there yet. Not on the Qs,
not on SPY. SPY actually got rejected
I think pretty much right there this morning
at the highs, if I'm not mistaken.
Let me pull it up.
I think I saw it a little bit lower.
Didn't get quite there.
As I said, I think it got rejected right there.
I see it got up to 5.88 and it got up to like 5.
Yeah, it got rejected at the 21.
Yeah.
So, yeah, I mean,
you can't get super excited about a two-day bounce
after a month of selling if you haven't recovered any ground.
And we haven't yet.
So, you know, if we're trading above 663 tomorrow, then my bias will be a little less cautious, right?
And I think there's this, like, feeling on markets, especially with, like, newer traders, that you have to have a really strong bias at all times.
You have to be either bullish or bearish or else you're an idiot.
No, that's not how it works.
You can be neutral when you're in these in-between zones.
I like to call them no man's land.
When you've had a month-long, a three-week-long, however you want to phrase it, downtrend, and you're waiting for reversal to be confirmed in that downtrend.
That's a totally okay stance to take, right?
Instead, what people do is they read the headlines and they go,
I don't know if I can believe this headline.
What headline's coming up next?
What is he going to say?
How are the markets going to react?
It is not your job to determine that.
You know, I tweeted a tweet from Peter Lynch this morning,
which I think is maybe particularly relevant right now,
but is relevant really all the time.
I'll post it at the top here.
But Peter Lynch said this in an interview
that I was watching last night,
so I decided to just write it down as a quote.
I don't know why I didn't just clip it.
I probably should have done that.
But I was watching a Peter Lynch interview last night.
And he said this.
He goes, if you spend 14 minutes a year on economics, you've wasted 12 minutes, which is just hilarious.
But it's true.
He goes, there's economic facts and there's economic predictions.
Economic predictions are a total waste of time.
How are you, the investor, supposed to predict interest rates if the Fed can't?
supposed to predict interest rates if the Fed can't?
That's a great point.
It's a great point.
Like, your job as a capital allocator, portfolio manager, investor, trader,
however the hell you define yourself,
is not to guess what is going to be said or done or happen in the economic data
or where interest rates are going to be in 10 months.
That's not your job.
If you base your investing philosophy around that,
I don't think you'll do very well.
But more importantly than that,
you'll be attempting to determine things
that massive teams of economists
who have far more data than you do
can still not determine, right?
I mean, just to take this,
if you don't take my word for granted,
go look at the history of the Fed Fund's watch tool
and look how volatile it is.
Look how quickly it can go from pricing in
five cuts to a year to no cuts in a year, right?
What is that an indication to you?
That is an indication to you
that the Fed doesn't even know
where interest rates are going to be at a given time. So how the hell are you going to figure that out? You don't. You don't bother. That's
literally the point. That because you cannot hope to compete, not even compete, let me be clear,
you're not competing with these guys. It's not like they can predict it either.
The PhD economists at Harvard, do you think they predict when recessions happen? No, they wouldn't be at Harvard.
They'd be on a trading desk somewhere making billions of dollars if they could do that.
And even the people on the trading desks can't do that.
So stop fooling yourself that you're going to somehow read into headlines or economic events and determine what's going to happen months or years from now in the
economic day. You will never be able to do that consistently. You may have a market cycle where
you get lucky, like my research and get lucky and spot something and throw your conviction behind it
and you call a crash one market cycle. You may have that happen. You're not going to do that every market cycle of your life. No fucking shot. Not
even a 0.01% chance that you'll be able to do that every market cycle. So the point is, is why bother?
Right? I mean, if you have the same odds of nailing a market crash as you do a zero DT with 30 minutes left till expiration, why would you bother?
You know, it just doesn't make sense.
So a lot of people are obsessing themselves, and I see people's feeds obsessed with this, with the idea of trying to determine what Trump is going to say tonight or what the impact of what Trump is going to say tonight or what the inflation data will look like in April and how they should position themselves according
to that, that's a fool's errand. What you should just be doing is listening to what price is telling
you in these moments. And if the market is willing to buy itself up back above the 200-day moving
average again, that is an indication to you that the market is seeing resolution.
And if the market is not willing to do that into the end of this week
or into next week, that is an indication to you
that market participants are not buying the resolution
and are not willing to endure oil prices at –
the 100 is an arbitrary mark, right?
We have some people this morning that go,
oil is back below 100, like economic fear over.
I mean, if oil hovers 95 plus anyway,
I mean, that's still a huge economic weight on Europe
and a lot of the rest of the world.
So don't obsess over these things.
You know, just ask yourself,
is the incremental buyer willing to pay more?
That's what markets are about.
And moving averages are just an indication of that, by the way,
which is why I reference moving averages so often, but that's all they are.
They're just indicating to you that the incremental buyer is willing to pay more
over a given period of time.
That's it.
It's a magic line.
And when the incremental buyer is willing to pay more,
things tend to go well in markets.
When the incremental buyer is hesitant and cautious and not willing to pay more, that's when you get corrections and crashes. Period. End of story.
That's literally as simple as it is. And so if you just sit around and wait and have some patience,
the price will eventually dictate to you how the market feels about the resolution to these things.
If you don't, and you're just like, again, I always use this phrase too,
a chicken with your head cut off, reacting to every wick up and down, not only are you going
to drive yourself crazy, you're probably not going to make any money. So yeah, your job is not to
make predictions. We can talk about it. And we talk about this stuff like more for entertainment
than anything. People want to hear people discuss like what could happen? What are the implications?
That's fine to do.
But once you start managing your portfolio
based on your predictions of the economy
or your predictions of a geopolitical conflict,
that's where you've taken it too far.
And I see a lot of people doing it,
which is why I'm so emphatic about this right now.
But I see a lot of people on my feed doing this,
you know, saying like,
well, oil is going to go to 156 and then there there's going to this, this, and this are going to happen, and then yields are
going to be here, and then the Fed's going to do this, and then like, how the fuck do you know that?
Nobody knows that. Stuff can change so dramatically in one month. So this is part of why I always stay
exposed to some degree in the market, because I don't want to have the burden of deciding when it's appropriate to reenter the market or to miss two recovery days that we missed.
But on the flip side, I'm more than willing to degross exposure into weakness too for the same reason, because I don't want to have to guess when the selling stops.
And I don't want to have to guess when distribution like we've seen for the past month
leads into a crash. I don't want to sit around worrying about that. Like, oh, could we crash?
I mean, we've had a distributive double top in the major indexes for a month.
That is a circumstance in which crashes do happen. Is it going to happen for sure? No.
But that's why I'm willing to degross into weakness, which is what has always been one of my methods of risk control.
So you have to figure out what works for you, but as long as you're not sitting around rubbing a crystal ball and managing your portfolio in light of that, that's what you need to avoid doing. And that's what a lot of people are doing right now on Twitter and,
and happen to do every time we get into events like this.
So yeah, I just wanted to emphasize that.
No, it is fair.
It's tough to be here on a show every single day in times like this one, you know, we've talked to you about how many buttons you should be pressing and all the research and stuff.
And there is a lot of noise. And even if you want, even when you start to sift through it, there still is a lot of noise, no matter how you do it and look at it, no matter what ways you're bringing it down.
If you sift it too far, you're going to miss too much.
It's an interesting one I do see logical down below we did get the market just closing there there aren't really too many interesting earnings
we did get the S&P 500 closing with a uh a nice green days that the second day in a row of a green S&P 500?
Monday wasn't so bad, but we did close lower there.
S&P 500 closing up 0.8%. NASDAQ closing up 1.2%.
A little bit of a follow-through day.
A little bit of a different theme than the week before.
A little bit before that.
Let's get logical up here as well.
I'm excited for us to have earnings season to be back us to have
some earnings to talk about here on spaces but we do have nothing reporting here after the close
let's just give it a double check it was just nike this week yeah literally nothing on the schedule
again i want to remind people the market is closed on friday so tomorrow is actually the last
trading day of the week and then also president trump President Trump should be speaking tonight at 9 p.m. Eastern.
At 9 p.m. Eastern, President Trump should be speaking.
Politico is saying that he is going to declare victory.
Tell people you need help with the straight-over moves.
We'll see how this conversation ends up going.
But I think the market will be watching that one.
And as we were talking about here, Stock Talk's going to be watching for
a recapture of this 200-day.
Right now I'm seeing it at like
$5.94, $5.95
on SPY, $5.95.50 there.
Oh, that's QQQ, sorry.
What do you look when you're looking at 200-day?
Yeah, SPY, it's closer to like $6.62.
The best thing you could see is a reclaim and it doesn't fail pushes probably higher
comes back to retest it and then it goes that'd be like the best possible scenario
stock talk are you on your toes here for a rejection at the 200 day and maybe you unload one or two things or are you still in that
it's a tight mindset i'll degross into weakness if i need to i mean i'm operating with a big
is weakness as in if we as in if we go lower i will sell stuff that's what i get that but are
we looking at a rejection at the 200 day are? Are you looking for maybe a break to new lows?
Yeah, yeah.
If we get, let's say we get, actually, it doesn't matter what news we get tonight, good or bad.
Okay?
Whatever happens tonight in the speech, tomorrow morning, let's say we rally into the 200-day and get rejected.
Yeah, I would probably degrowth some exposure, and I'd probably put on hedges too.
Now, if tomorrow we gap up and just blow through the 200 day, then no, I won't.
I may even pick some stuff up. So it just depends. Depends on what the market reaction looks like tomorrow. I don't care what Trump says. I care about what the market reaction to it is. Because
it's not, again, it's not my job. It's not any of our jobs to attempt to determine what the
consequences of headlines are. It is the market's
job to do that. It's your job to react to what the market thinks. That's my view on it. And
yeah, so I'm not going to like listen to Trump's speech tonight. And then like after the speech
is over, I'm not going to have some master plan. I'm going to wake up in the morning,
see how the markets are reacting to what he said. wake up in the morning, see how the markets are
reacting to what he said. And by in the morning, I don't mean in pre-market. I mean, I will wake up
in pre-market, but I mean, that's not the reaction I'm going to be assessing. I'm going to be
assessing the open market reaction to what he said. And if markets feel confident that it's
enough to bring oil prices down and settle the qualms that the markets are having right now,
great. If the markets do not feel that way, they will show you tomorrow.
If the markets don't buy that the conflict is over or that the strait will be reopened,
they'll probably flush tomorrow and you'll probably see oil back up.
And if they do believe it, you'll probably see oil continue this small breakdown. I mean,
we'll call it a breakdown, but this small reversal it's had, you'll probably see oil continue this small breakdown. I mean, we'll call it a breakdown.
But this small reversal it's had, you'll see oil reverse that and that's it.
I mean, it's all one big trade.
People are like, oh, I'm trading tech.
I'm trading this.
I'm trading that.
Like, no, everyone is trading oil right now and has been for the last month.
You're just either long it or long something else.
Really oil and fertilizers, I'll say that. You're either long oil and fertilizers,
or you're long something else, in which case you're indirectly short oil and fertilizers.
That's really what positioning is like in this market. Again, markets are one issue organism.
This is my opinion, but I believe markets are one issue organism. In other words,
there's always one forefront issue that they care about the most. And resolution of that issue or
lack of resolution in that issue is what they're responsive to. So in 22, people thought it was
oil, but it was, I'm sorry, people thought it was interest rates, but it was really oil combined
with interest rates, right? Because oil was contributing to the inflation narrative.
And if you look at the first big countertrend rally in 22,
it came when?
When oil topped, right?
And then you saw a countertrend rally in 22
from like 270 to 350 or something crazy like that.
I don't remember what the exact numbers are,
but you can go back and look on your charts what they were.
But there was a massive countertrend rally
when oil had a top in 22
because people saw
it or the market looked forward to it as a potential reversal in the trend of inflation,
which may slow down the pace of rate hikes. That didn't happen because rates went higher
throughout the year, but markets anticipated that. And when rates didn't fall through as the market
expected, what happened? That counter trend rally rejected. Coincidentally, right off the 200-day moving average.
And then we made new lows at 250-ish going into the end of the year.
So, yeah, price will tell you is the short answer.
And not in pre-market, not in the overnight session,
not in futures, but in the open market session.
That's where the rubber meets the road. And a lot of people get faked out because they see
pre-market gap ups or pre-market gap downs or overnight gap ups or overnight gap downs. And
then they feel like they're to buy everything they ever sold back or sell everything they ever owned.
And those people get stuck, usually get stuck out of the market or get stuck in the market, one of the two.
And so, yeah, wake up tomorrow.
First of all, listen to the speech tonight.
I think you should, whether or not you're going to react to it or not.
Listen to the speech tonight and then wake up and look at the open market reaction.
You know, I'd wait at least an hour into the session
and see what the stability looks like.
See if liquid leaders that had great recoveries today
and yesterday, see if those liquid leaders
are taking out their overhead resistance, right?
At least the ones that aren't already at their 52-week highs,
see if they're taking out their overhead resistance.
Like that can often give you an indication or a cue
on how sustainable the market follow-through is going to be. And like that can often give you an indication or a cue on how sustainable the market follow through is going to be.
And it's going to give you a cue or indication
on how likely an intraday fade will be.
So you can look at these things.
And if you're a day trader,
it probably matters more than if you're a swing trader
or investor like I am.
But again, I said this yesterday a bunch of times, but markets are not easy, but they're simple.
You just have to like listen to price.
And you have to know when you're in these sort of flux zones where you have the right to have a relatively neutral attitude.
to have a relatively neutral attitude. My positioning isn't neutral right now, but my
attitude towards the navigation of the indexes is pretty neutral, which means that I'm open to
staging a recovery. And I'm obviously open to there being further downside. I think there's
appropriate enough scenarios for both. But once structure repairs, my bias will shift back to being more bullish.
If structure does not repair, then my bias will remain cautious. It's really that
straightforward. So all I care about personally, a lot of people care about different things,
but all I care about when it comes to market backdrop to macro is the S&P 500 trading with good structure. That is like the singular factor
that I care about. Outside of all the noise, all the conversations, all the headlines,
is the S&P 500 trading above all of its moving averages? That's when you know you're in a good
market condition that you can take a lot of risk in. Just that singular factor alone has served me
very well over the years. Saying the S&P 500 is above all the moving averages, I can throw darts.
Oh, the S&P 500 is below the 50-day? All right, 0.1 of caution. Oh, the S&P 500 is below both the
50-day and the 200-day? All right, 0.2 of caution. Now buckle your seatbelt and either be patient
or depending on how aggressive the
trend is in the other direction, participate in the downtrend. And in 22, I did that.
I didn't do it at the start of the year. I actually waited until mid-March, I think,
in 22, but then I started shorting RK. And so if the market tells me this time,
hey, the trend is going to be down for the year or for the next few months, then I will position myself not in hedges, but in positions to the short side.
I will do that.
I'm not going to just sit there and stare at the market.
So we will see.
But right now, we're at a very indecisive moment in the markets.
You had roughly a 5% to 7% correction in most of the major indexes. The Q is a little further than that.
You have a very volatile geopolitical event. You still have a headline-driven market that,
in spite of everyone saying is not responsive to headlines, is still quite responsive to headlines.
And you have a speech coming up tonight.
You have a short week this week.
You have a long weekend.
You have additional U.S. forces moving to the Middle East.
So it's really hard to read the cards here and say, are we going to get an escalation, which could happen?
Or are we going to get a de-escalation?
And that's what the market cares about here. You know, the strait wasn't open in the last two days.
But the market ripped.
Why? Because it interpreted the headlines of the last two days as de-escalation. And if Trump proves
the market wrong tonight, you'll find out tomorrow, right? And the price action. So yeah, at risk of
being very repetitive. That's my view.
Yeah.
It is fair.
We are caring how the market takes it,
not necessarily what he is saying.
It should be an interesting speech.
I don't even know if you necessarily need to listen to it tonight.
But, I mean, we probably will.
It probably is more noise than anything else,
and you can just kind of wake up in the morning and see what headline and how the market reacted and go from there.
You know, Tesla does have its Q1 delivery numbers getting released, I believe, tomorrow morning,
which we'll see if... I did see some stories around like France and other European countries,
which, I mean, objectively aren't buying a lot lot of cars but it was up like 200% year
over year or something in March for France but I do wonder if this this conflict sells some
more cars for Tesla I don't even know if the market cares much about their deliveries
there's the Tesla deliveries anything you're watching I know you own some it's more that
legacy positions not something you're sitting here buying watching I know you own some it's more that like a seat positions
Not something you're sitting here buying I've heard you talk some doubts into the world on Tesla more than you have in the past
But yeah disappointed in the robot actually roll out
Apparently it's going into mass production this month
We'll see
Yeah, we'll see allegedly but that is some of the tweets I was seeing going out, like Sawyer put out that post.
And they do put out deliveries tomorrow morning.
I'm sure they had a good March, would be my guess.
It feels pretty easy for them at this point, given what's going on in the world and gas
prices.
I mean, I'm sure they're doing well.
We've talked here a little bit.
I mean, I really think coming out of this,
you were talking there about what the market's focused on, and oil and energy seem to be the underlying of it. And I don't know how many times you get fooled before you think like,
I don't even know about clean energy, but just being able to create your own domestic supplies
of energy across the world. It seems like an easy
thing that should be
happening and will happen. We'll see.
I don't want to have to rely on Europe to do something that's
obvious, but
I don't know.
I'm just interested to see
what kind of the outcomes are coming from this.
Tesla does
seem to be a company that is in the right area.
But it's a whatever trillion dollar valuation.
This is a story on robotics, the clean energy at this point.
SpaceX also going.
They filed for their IPO today.
A lot of random, unconnected stuff going on in the Elon Musk world, as always.
StockDoc, How's your favorite CEO
feeling? How are you feeling right now?
I'm not feeling about Elon.
Yeah. I mean, there's a lot of stuff going on.
Tesla deliveries tomorrow.
Do you think that, I mean, listen.
You just gave this whole thing talking about
you're going to let price react.
There's not much to talk about in the market tomorrow. We'll see tonight.
So I want to ask you about Tesla. I know it's not much to talk about in the market tomorrow we'll see tonight uh so i wanna i wanna ask you about tesla i know it's not gonna move your investment
stuff but it's big time the delivery is coming out tomorrow morning are you watching at all
I cannot hear you if you were talking.
Okay.
I actually don't think he can hear.
Okay, Moniton went off because he couldn't hear too.
Okay, I think it was on me actually.
Or it was on him.
There we go.
Let's get StockSniper back up here.
Let's get Monitif back up here as well.
Yeah, yeah.
Can you hear me now?
Yeah, I got you.
Tesla deliveries tomorrow.
Feels like an easy setup.
I mean, yeah.
I mean, expectations are low, but they should be.
I haven't cared about Tesla deliveries in years, to be honest.
I don't think the market cares about it either.
I mean, that stock trades on sentiment and sentiment alone.
You know, it's an Elon sentiment vehicle.
That's what Tesla is and has been for many years.
I just don't think the market, I mean, I don't care,
but I don't think the market cares either about deliveries at all, to be honest.
I mean, unless they were like a 50% miss or something insane like that,
then yeah, they would.
But as long as deliveries are relatively in line,
relatively, you know,
the market doesn't care in my view at all.
So yeah, I have no view on Tesla deliveries.
I haven't even thought about them in years.
The RoboTaxi program expanding and the Optimus program are all that matters for that stock, in my view.
That is fair. That is fair. What do you think of the energy storage part of the business does that have anything on it yeah i mean that's the that's the brightest spot in the business um
you know it's not a good enough reason to buy the stock because it's not a big enough
business to to justify the valuation but like if you know
yeah it's the most exciting part of the business for sure i'm a big fan of energy storage bss in
general um the nurses systems which i own has a not huge segment but small bss segment um
none of the other bss plays on the market are really interesting to me.
So I guess from that perspective, yeah, that's a potential reason to own Tesla.
They are technically the U.S. leader in battery energy storage systems.
At least I think they have the best product.
So, yeah, I mean, their energy business is a great business.
I actually don't want to discount that.
It's a very, very good business.
The car business just sucks right now.
Not just for them, but in general, the auto business sucks right now.
I mean, Wall Street Engine, we were actually talking about this earlier on chat
about the recovery in autos and auto chip-related stocks
and when that might be around the corner.
But the auto business generally, in general, isn't great right now so yeah i mean that should change if rates come down this year i was gonna say when
but if rates come down this year that should help a little bit um but i don't think the market case
about the auto business at all that's fair
at all.
That's fair.
Do you think
on rates?
So the answer on rates
I really think is how long does this conflict go on?
If it's within a couple
weeks, I think the conversation shifts
a little bit. Not how long the conflict goes on.
Not how long the conflict goes on.
How long the straight remains closed.
That's fair. That seems like it might be a different...
Those are two different things.
For a while there, it felt like the same thing, but tonight
it sounds like it might confirm that it isn't.
Yeah.
I guess depending on that is the answer.
I don't know.
If I was putting money,
if I was on the polymarket odds or whatever it was,
I would probably be
betting we get one rate cut this year. That's where I
would be gambling. I lose gambling
a lot, and that's probably not the most likely outcome.
That would be where my money
is at this point in time.
Well, you missed my whole rant on the start of this space,
didn't you, about not predicting interest rates?
No, I did, but that's why I called it gambling.
I'm messing with you.
We lost money in casino.
Vegas took money from us.
Look, this is what I'll say.
You're not going to get a raging bull market with oil above $100.
Okay?
Period.
It's not going to happen.
So, whatever we need to do to get oil sustainably back down,
which might be hard at this point, to reverse the impacts.
Whatever we need to do to get oil sustainably back down is what we need to do.
I mean, even Stiefel said, Stiefel put out a scenario analysis for the war in Iran last night.
And their bear case scenario for oil was $85.
Their bear case.
Right?
So that's not a good thing.
You just want to see resolution in that.
Because energy prices are a huge headwind for everybody and everything.
It's not just a factor of the input costs that make prices go up for
basically everything, but it's also the impact of gas prices, which in the U.S. tend to affect
consumer behavior pretty dramatically, right? People drive a lot in the United States. I know
a lot of Europeans are in shock about that, But the United States is especially sensitive
to consumer gas prices
because we are a car economy.
We have big-ass interstate highways
and we have parking lots every block.
We have people driving to work every day
instead of taking public transit.
It's not a uniquely U.S. thing,
but it is a U.S. thing. And
when you see consumer gas prices go up in America,
they've gone up by 35%, by the way, since the war started from about three to over $4
a gallon. When that happens, that's a 35% change, right?
People hear three versus $4 and it doesn't sound significant to them,
but that's a 35% change.
That means like over a tank, you're paying 35% more.
For a consumer who's cash strapped for paycheck to paycheck,
that's a lot of money, right?
That's a big difference.
You know, you go from paying whatever, 50 or 60 bucks to paying, you know, 80 or 90 bucks for a gallon of,
several gallons of gas, that's a problem.
And then it impacts their consumer behavior, their discretionary consumer behavior in other categories.
Right?
Things like buying apparel and buying food at restaurants and these sort of things.
The discretionary category spending goes down.
And it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure that out.
So it serves as a headwind to companies' earnings.
It serves as a tailwind to inflation. It serves as a headwind to consumer discretionary spending.
And so it's just not good for the economy to have oil above $100 a barrel. And everyone knows that.
And in 22, when we were in a bear market for pretty much the entire year, that was also the case.
Except that time, we also had rate hikes to pair with it at a very steep frequency.
And we also had a very cash-rich consumer, which we no longer have.
And so the cash-rich consumer was viewed as a sort of punching bag for the Fed.
When the Fed knows consumers are really strong, they're willing to be aggressive with policy.
Now, the consumer is not as strong as it was at the beginning of 22, and the Fed recognizes that.
And so they don't see the punching bag in front of them.
They are in between a rock and a hard place.
Right? And that's when you start, and I hate that I'm the one saying this word now because I got so
mad at people for saying it for years, but that's when you start risking a stagflationary environment.
When the Fed is between a rock and a hard place and you have inflationary pressures and you have
a consumer that's weakening simultaneously,
that's how you risk, increase the risk, I should say,
of stagflationary pressure.
So we don't want to see that, okay?
So we want to see the straight-of-or-missary open,
and hopefully sooner than later.
And, you know, de-escalation is step one of that, I think.
But who knows if we'll get it, when we'll get it, how we'll get it.
So that's what we have to be patient for.
Okay, have you ever...
Do you think Rivian is a stock that you would ever buy at some point?
Or is it ruled out?
No, I wouldn't.
I'm not even interested in the EV business anymore.
You know, when I bought Tesla back in 2015,
my thesis on Tesla was that,
and that's over a decade ago now,
but when I bought it back then,
my thesis was that there was going to be an EV revolution
and that EVs would go from basically
0% market share at that time to capturing 10%, 12% market share. That happened. And I made
a lot of money on Tesla stock. It's not a big part of the portfolio now, but back then
it was, you know, I bought it at, I have a cost basis under 20 bucks on that stock,
you know, split adjusted. adjusted so yeah my thesis played
out with tesla which was that there was going to be a surge in ev adoption globally and take it
from zero to ten percent and it did and it happened and you know kumbaya great but i don't
i'm not like at this juncture i'm not sitting around going how do i get more ev exposure
like that's not at the top of my mind.
So, no, I'm not interested in Rivian.
Do I think maybe Rivian could go up if they continue to deliver vehicles?
Sure, but no, I'm not along it.
I don't know.
I just feel like a push towards energy independence
wouldn't be a crazy outcome of stuff like this.
And I know it's called clean energy in a lot of different ways,
but being able to domestically create energy. The US is fine. I mean, we have plenty
of oil and gas, actually. I mean, we're an exporter. I mean, how long does that last?
I don't know. But like, we're good for a little bit. But I imagine there's something going
down that pike. Like, are we always gonna have gas cars? Is that a thing? I mean, it feels like not.
But it has, I mean, what are we at at U.S. penetration of EVs right now?
I don't know what the percentage is.
I'm looking.
I want to know hybrid as well.
I would imagine a lot of hybrid.
Like every investment cycle has phases.
I think it went from EV hardware being an investment cycle back in like 2018 to 2020.
And now I think that cycle has shifted to autonomy. I think that there's
much more opportunity in vehicle autonomy and robotic autonomy now. Like that's where I think
your focus should be. If you're somebody that cares about thematic relevance, which is important,
if you want a portfolio that super performs over a long period of time, you need to adjust it for
thematic relevance. This is something a lot of people make a mistake with. They find a company they think is sexy,
it serves them well for a few years,
and then they never rotate their portfolio
and they just hold a basket of the same stocks for 20 years.
You're not going to super perform doing that ever, period.
You have to pick up exposure in newly relevant thematics.
Like, you know that there's that quote, the Warren Buffett quote, like, in the short term, markets are a voting machine, in the long term, they're a weighing machine.
There's truth to that from a fundamental value perspective.
But it's also misleading from a thematic perspective, because in the long run, markets are a voting machine in the thematic
perspective always because themes change, okay? Relevance and hype changes and that changes
valuations. Anyone who tells you that that is not true is either just deliberately lying to you or has not been in the markets for long enough or doesn't pay attention to the action in individual stocks enough.
One of the three.
significantly long period of time and been a market participant. One thing that you know to
be true is that multiple expansion and compression happens all the time in almost every industry.
Like many of these industrial stocks involved in data center cooling and data center
construction and copper wire outfitting and electrical plumbing and hardware.
The multiples that they're trading at today are historically very high.
Okay. Why? Because they are thematically relevant. That's why. That's why the multiples have expanded
for all these industrial stocks. And people point to it and go, well, that's a rotation, a flight to safety.
No, it is an expansion in the valuations of traditionally cheap companies
that historically have traded at very low valuations because they're not interesting businesses
that now are seeing demand spill over from AI, thematic relevance to AI.
And so their multiples are expanding.
If the AI build-out stalls or slows,
what do you think will happen to the multiples of those industrial companies?
They will compress.
And if hype leads us to, like, let's say, I don't know,
10 years from now, there's some other big new technology or thing,
from now, there's some other big new technology or thing like quantum or whatever.
like quantum or whatever,
What will happen to the multiples of data center and AI related stocks?
They will compress.
And that bubble of multiple expansion will move to another thematic category.
That's how it works.
The way you should think about it is that there is this bubble that traverses the market and expands multiples in industries broadly and rapidly. And it moves from theme to theme and industry to industry. And to super perform the markets, your job is to find out where that bubble is going.
your job is to find out where that bubble is going.
Can I ask you something, though?
Yes.
We're in a world where the straight-up removered-locked oil is at $100, $120.
People are sitting there watching gas prices go up.
Those calculations on the Tesla website that show this price versus gas savings
and stuff like that start to look a little bit better.
And EVs are here at 10%.
The bubble is not on EVs.
It's pretty off of it.
You're talking about Rivian and a $15, $16 billion valuation.
For you, I'm sure we want to see some of this stuff happen first.
But, I mean, what are the chances that the bubble comes back to the EV area as gas prices
stay elevated for a little bit?
Yeah, I mean, there's a chance for that, right?
But there has to be a catalyst for thematic interest.
Like, what started the AI bull market?
Well, what started the AI bull market was the release of ChatGPT in late 22
and the wide release in early 23.
Okay?
That started the AI bull market.
What's happened since then?
What happened in 23, 24, 25? AI stocks went vertical. They didn't go up a little bit.
They didn't go up 10, 20%. They went up hundreds of percent in three years. Almost all of them. I hear you. I can't think of... Yeah. Do you think oil
over $100
is a sustainable catalyst
for EVs?
That's what I would argue here.
No, no, because it's...
No, because oil
can't sustainably
stay over $100.
So no.
Like, the people
who are out there
who are putting
three $400 price targets
on oil
are retarded.
I'll use that term.
They're retarded.
Oil cannot go to $300 a barrel.
Why?
You will see demand destruction far before then.
Far before then.
I mean, forget about $300.
Forget about $200 a barrel.
Like, you will blow up the economy way before then.
Okay? You might see it spike there maybe i mean i still think 300 is not gonna happen but maybe maybe you see it spike to 200 on some crazy sort
of energy crisis maybe and what you think that's gonna sit up there at 200 a barrel for like
like four or five years and create i know 100 no i mean whatever even 100 it's not just like
oils the ramps and this is also historically true go back through the spikes in oil
and gas in history they're not like they don't last sustainably and you know what they are is
they're a headwind to the market that happens when there's chokes on
energy prices and right now we're having a choke on energy prices and the war in russia and ukraine
was a massive disruption to global energy right i'm sure everyone remembers i mean not everyone
but if you were in the market in 22 i'm sure you remember um when r Russia's exports were sanctioned for oil and gas and how much
clamor there was in Europe about the winter and about net gas prices and about oil globally
and the stability of energy markets globally.
Everyone, I mean, not again, not everyone, but if you were in the markets, you remember
how much clamor there was about that.
And you saw what happened to oil prices.
I mean, go type into your LLM what happened to oil prices in 22? You can go and revisit it if you don't
remember. These things happen and they almost always are a headwind to markets when energy
prices surge like that. And so is high gas prices a tailwind to EVs? No. What I will say is this,
I think every energy conflict is a nickel in the tip jar, if you will, proverbially speaking, for the need for more nuclear energy and more renewables.
I am a proponent of that because the reason we're seeing so much conflict in the world and the reason we have seen so much conflict for the better part of the last 20 years, even though people feel like we've been at peace, most of that conflict has been centered around energy and resources.
You know, do you think Russia wants the parts of Ukraine that they want for no reason?
No, they want it for energy distribution reasons, agricultural reasons, fertilizer reasons. That's
why they want it. Okay. Do you think the wars that the United States had in the Middle East had no resource angle to them?
I mean, you'd have to be naive to think that. Everyone and their mother knows
that the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan had an energy angle to them. Do you think the war in
Iran has an energy angle to it? Do you think the war in Venezuela or not the war, the kidnapping
of the Venezuelan president, the attempted overthrow of the Venezuelan regime
and the seizing of Venezuelan oil?
Do you think there's an energy angle to it?
Do you think Iran's ability to hold the global economy hostage
via striking energy facilities of countries
that are unrelated to the conflict,
do you think there's an energy angle to that?
Yes, the answer is yes to all of those questions.
And as long as nations are dependent
on other nations for their energy, energy is everything, right? It's everything. It's the
production of everything. The production of food even requires energy. Even if you have the
agricultural resources, you still need energy to actually put food on people's tables. You need
energy to power factories, to make cars, anything.
You need energy. So it's the lifeblood of an economy. And when nations and global economies
can be held hostage or can be compromised because of energy, that is a feeder of conflict.
That is a feeder of conflict.
I agree.
Yeah, and so, yeah, in the long run, what I'm trying to say to your earlier question is that it is, these conflicts are a tailwind to the need for more nuclear energy and more renewables.
They point out the need.
They highlight the need for those things.
Now, have we acted on it? Sort of.
We haven't done it sporadically enough, I think.
But, you know, I think over time people will begin to realize, wow, we need more energy independence as a nation.
And if every nation on Earth genuinely takes that stance and puts the money behind it to take that stance,
you can start solving the problem
of just perpetual conflicts over resources and energy.
And then the extension of those conflicts
by holding those resources hostage.
Like, the Iranians know they can't win this war.
They know that they cannot defeat the United States
in all-out war,
but what they do know they can do
is they can hold the global economy hostage
via energy.
Right? And they can
pressure the global economy and put
political pressure on President Trump to end the war.
That's what they know they can do, even if they can't
beat the United States in all-out war.
yeah, it is a problem.
And I think these things do highlight the problem.
Yeah. Yeah, it is a problem. And I think these things do highlight the problem. I guess we're in the stage of seeing if they will act on the problem.
I didn't really want to call on Sam because I know you're on vacation.
But you are here.
Do you have anything you want to add?
I am on a long flight.
Oh, you're actually on a flight right now?
Yeah, I'm on a flight right now.
You're actually not, I don't think you're allowed to be on the voice floor.
You're not on a flight.
I'm on a flight.
Did you say I'm not on a flight?
Oh, then you told me I'm not on a flight.
I was like, I just said I'm on a flight.
Saipa, you know the rules here.
Is that allowed?
That is probably not allowed.
But who knows?
What's that on?
How are you connected to the internet?
As effectively as you are.
It's magic, man.
It's magic.
Starlink?
Did you ask me how he was on the internet on a flight?
How is he on Spaces?
They always offer internet.
I mean, flights
have good internet now.
For Spaces, though?
Yeah, I've listened to
Spaces before.
I've been on
Spaces before.
Yeah, I mean, most airlines have really good internet space on flights before. Yeah, I mean
most airlines have really good internet now
on flights.
At least in my experience.
This is pretty good internet.
Are you on a United flight?
With Starlink?
No, I'm not a United flight.
I don't even know what kind of internet they have.
But it's Airframe.
Oh, well.
Yeah, I'm probably going to pass the torch on
because I don't even know if this could be in that or anything.
I'm just listening.
It's honestly been pretty good.
I will say one up to the Wi-Fi there.
Starlink, Amazon Leo
as well. Amazon Leo
stealing that Delta contract. I was a little bit
surprised. Dude, honestly
this Wi-Fi is actually better than what I have at home.
I'm not going to lie.
Let's do a little speed test.
Ruin the internet for everyone else.
It's ridiculous.
So how about
that 200 day moving average rejection?
That was like right on cue for those headlines that come out.
I didn't see us quite at the 200-day.
You saw us a little bit below it.
We got close.
We really got rejected at the 21 EMA, but I mean, whatever.
I mean, same principle.
I mean, you need to take it out tomorrow, I think.
You know, because I don't think you're going to get a ton of people excited to hold over the weekend with all this shit going on.
So if you can't close above it tomorrow and you probably get some selling into the close and then, you know, you're going to get a fake out.
But look, markets are really good at faking people out. That's why you have to be patient here because as long as you don't reverse
the highs of yesterday's candle tomorrow,
then you still have buyers waiting in the bay
because you are tucked underneath the 200-day moving average here
with an upsloping 90MA.
That's not a terrible setup,
but you need to see momentum here.
We haven't been able to string together two green days in a month.
Now we finally got two.
We'd like to see a third year to follow through and ideally take out that 660 level overhead.
But you don't need to guess.
Just wait.
We'll see tomorrow if it happens.
Yeah, just wait. We'll see tomorrow if it happens, you know? Yeah, for sure.
I mean, one thing that I've noticed
in the last couple of days
was obviously the large amount of volume,
but it's just been relentless trend day upward
the entire day.
I mean, I'm sure you guys mentioned
that there was a lot of volume yesterday in the market,
which is really good to see.
But I mean, same story, same story. The whole time, relative outperformance has been
really centralized around semis and that continues to be. In fact, Microsoft was actually red today,
which is kind of surprising to see. And IGV was basically flat. And the leaders just
continue to lead. Whatever was leading the way up before the correction, whatever was leading the way up before the correction, whatever was outperforming
on a relative basis going down
has been leading up
the most after this.
And, you know,
there's not really much you need to do
other than that.
I mean, you know,
there's tactical trading
that I've been doing the last couple of days
because usually I love,
I love getting those trending days.
When you get the trending days like that,
it's very easy just to ride the wave
and buy the dips and stuff.
But other than that, I mean, like, you have the optics trade continue to come in i know stock
talk was mentioning viave uh which has been an outstanding performer i'm not in viave though but
uh i have i'm in the amcor trade just been doing really good on semiconductor has been really good
too massively outperforming in the last couple of days. Fastly made another local high.
Higher than where it was when it was last at this point.
SB500 and Qs.
Marvell made a new local high as well.
Broke the 100 range and broke out.
Just like something like that.
It just makes the portfolio just act really well in this environment.
Especially, you know, when I size it correctly
at the opportune times.
But what I've really been focusing on
is buying things or looking to buy things
that are thematic or part of the theme
that are,
I know this sounds like something
Stockler says all the time
because it's true,
but it's like that are breaking out
of moving averages over a long-term base.
And that's exactly what Marvell did. And look at it today, we're breaking out over a long-term base. And that's exactly what Marvell did.
And look at it today.
We're breaking out of a multi-month base for Marvell.
And they now have the catalyst that NVIDIA invested $2 billion into the company via NVLink.
They also have the Protonix catalyst as well lately from their recent earnings report
when they sent them a conference call.
I mean, there's a lot of good things going on in the market and software has just not
been the place where I'm going to buy the dip on right now.
And the market is kind of telling you that.
So I'm going to continue to just kind of wait things out.
Still sitting like 7% cash.
I actually added some hedges today.
Somewhat near the top.
I got super lucky in that one, but I just found it very sus how things were kind of converging right on the line.
And also about one year ago, it was actually April 2nd last year, we had a rip into the
Liberation Day speech.
And after hours, when Trump did his Liberation Day speech, pulled out that chart, Mark thought
that, now I don't know if that's going to happen or not, but I sure as hell
am going to be a little bit skeptical there and buy some hedges that are a very small part of
the portfolio, 1% portfolio. And guess what? If we drop, it's probably 2% of portfolio. That'd be
good. My pro is still going to be down, but at least I'm hedging a little bit. Everybody go up?
Well, I'm talking about something that expires in May. Unless we gap up like 3%, 4% tomorrow,
which already even matter,
my pro is going to be significantly higher than that.
So, opportunity time to do things like that for myself.
It's not really for everyone,
but I see the pro that go up significantly
in the last couple of days,
coming right into significant moving averages.
I feel like I need a little bit of protection just in case,
and I have no problem taking it off if we continue to see upper movement.
But, you know, we are seeing a bit of downplay of the war,
but it was really weird is that you're seeing continued escalation
versus what he's actually saying, right?
So I thought it was pretty interesting the stance that Iran had today
as far as basically saying that they are not being aggressive here and that's
whatever prerogative the president has
is a much more aggressive timeline.
You know, it just
you're really at a kind of fork
on the road over here. We either go up or we go down right now.
I don't think we're going to
exactly consolidate over here.
VIX is still at 25. VIX actually did go
green for a second today, which is very
interesting to see, but still buyers came in even after you actually did go green for a second today, which is very interesting to see. But still, buyers came in
even after you got that little bit of a pullback
for the 200 days or the 21 EMA.
So I'm just going to wait and see what happens
and just enjoy things.
I mean, I'm on vacation, but I love the market.
So, you know, there's really nothing to say about that.
I don't really get super stressed in situations like these
because I'm not like sitting on super crazy leverage
or anything right now.
So it is what it is.
The portfolio is doing well.
So just kind of enjoying it right now
and hoping for the best tomorrow
and hoping for the rest of the week.
We have Good Friday off, right?
So markets are closed, I think.
Yep, markets are closed on Friday.
Yeah, Good Friday.
Markets are closed.
I think Treasury markets are open, if I'm not mistaken.
We do get NFP in the morning.
I think treasury markets are open.
We get NFP Friday morning.
Maybe currencies are open as well.
But yeah, stock markets close and all that stuff.
It's kind of a weird time.
I used to actually work at a bank.
And it was like a very weird time because banks were open,
but the stock markets were closed.
So it was just crazy situations and processing and jobs and BI jobs.
You have to deal with the background from that.
But, you know, it's just really interesting to see how we have a short week, but excessive amount of volume for it to pivot.
Crazy times.
Stock Talk, does the market be in close on Friday?
I mean, we're feeling like tomorrow is a
big day we're watching for reaction yeah i mean it's important i mean look things don't need to
happen right away what i want to know is the market being closed on friday though um does
that make it more important i mean kind of no i don't know i don't know people don't want to be
into it can be less important people don't want to be long into the weekend. That's a scary three-day weekend.
We have no idea what's going to happen.
Like, I don't know.
Does that maybe delay it out and be like,
hey, the real follow-through I want to see is on Monday
to see how we did just over a weekend?
Yeah, I mean...
Maybe that makes tomorrow less.
Yeah, I'm likely not doing anything
until we get clarity on the straight of our moves i'm i'm not gonna be
buying anything i'm probably not gonna be selling anything i'm just gonna be waiting until we get
clarity on the straight of our moves because i know i'm not an idiot i know that if oil stays
where it is or even around where it is we're not you're not going to get an immediate resumption of the bull market.
You're just not going to get it.
You don't get bull markets in the middle of energy surges like this.
You just don't.
And so if you want the bull market to go back to singing the same tune
it's been singing for the last three years,
It's a bit of a tall task here. You have to get energy to calm down. And the first step to doing that is likely to get the straight back open. There's no short-term alternative to the straight of Hormuz. There's no snap-of-the-finger decision we can make that will just make the problems disappear.
it's a bit of a tall task here.
You have to get energy to calm down.
that will just make the problems disappear.
The strait has to be reopened.
Now, is the U.S. backing out enough to do that?
Will Israel continue to strike Iran anyway, even if we do do that?
I don't know.
And so, yeah, that's what I'm waiting for.
I'm waiting for that to happen.
And I'm waiting, more importantly than that, for the indexes to recover their structure.
And they have not done that yet.
And so I need both of those things to happen.
I need index structure to repair itself.
And I need the energy situation to have a light at the end of the tunnel.
Right now, there doesn't look like there's a light at the end of the tunnel.
And so we need to create that light at the end of the tunnel for the energy situation,
either by de-escalating or by
escalating those are really the two two scenarios you either escalate and invade iran uh which i
don't want just personally i don't want that to see that happen i don't think most americans do
or you de-escalate and leave the region and hope they open the strait um for the sake of
international sympathy.
I don't know what other reason they would have to open it because they can allow the
ships that they want to pass through.
I heard somebody's accusation or not accusation.
There was a theory floating around over the weekend like, oh, hey, well, if we leave the
region, if our aircraft carrier strike groups leave the region, then Iran will just open the strait because why wouldn't they for the sake of their economy?
That's a silly take because Iran can already allow whichever ships are related to their economic interests, like the Chinese ships that they let through yesterday, for example.
They can already allow those to go through. You know, the question is, why would they allow US allied ships like British and Australian ships? Why would they allow those ships to go through even if we did leave the region? You know, if in their view, they haven't yet exacted revenge or whatever.
So that's the tricky part here is that is de-escalation going to lead to the strait being reopened or is it just an attempt to calm the markets down, which I think it will do.
I don't think it's a permanent solution.
So we have to find a way to address the energy problem.
That's the real problem here, not the war.
I said this a couple of days ago, too.
Markets do not care about the bombs.
They care about the energy disruption. Precision airstrikes, no matter how many people die,
and I don't mean to minimize the loss of life, but no matter how many people die,
precision airstrikes or fire bombings or whatever, the market doesn't care about any of that shit.
The market cares if there's an oil disruption. and that's why the market cared about the war in
russia and ukraine too at least initially was because there was a disruption in agricultural
goods in oil supply and uh in fertilizers and that the market responded to it you know i mean
and then we had rates going up on top of all of that so
yeah the straight has to be reopened one way or another escalation or de-escalation and i guess
we'll find out a little bit more about what that's going to be tonight um one thing i will say is that
if trump does come out tonight like cbs news and he says, we're going to wind down operations.
I think that does decrease the likelihood of a ground invasion.
And I think markets will like that.
But if he doesn't present a clear plan along with that as to how the straits are going to be reopened,
if he just says we'll leave it to Europe, markets may not like that. So it's tough to judge what the reaction will be, because
that's what everyone's reporting that he's going to say. You know, all the major news source
outlets today said he's going to say, we've accomplished our objectives, we're leaving the
region, and those who need energy from the Strait of Hormuz, it's your job to open it up.
and those who need energy from the Strait of Hormuz,
it's your job to open it up.
Well, if that's the case
and Europe doesn't respond to that call,
then you still have the energy problem,
whether you have a war or not.
And that's what the markets will care about.
So we'll find out more tomorrow and tonight,
but I'm not sure that we'll be out of
the woods. And my definition of out of the woods is spending multiple sessions, ideally above the
200 day moving average with a resolution in the energy situation along with it.
Want to switch up with another different type of question here.
One of the topics that Sam brought up was NVIDIA investing in Marvell.
I'm curious your thoughts on a company like NVIDIA,
one of these just large Mag7 type names,
not one that you normally invest in.
The strategy of kind of just putting out $2
billion investments into a bunch of different companies and curious your thoughts on that.
There's a lot of stuff they can do with that cash. They could whatever invested in other
things within the company. They could dividends, share buybacks, whatever it is, but they're
choosing to do this. It doesn't feel like something that's super common.
I don't know if you have any thoughts on it.
I mean, obviously it's not going to push you to buy. Maybe it's a catalyst for stocks, but what do you think from an NVIDIA perspective?
They've been doing it a lot lately.
They did it with Nebius.
They did it with Light.
They did it with Coherent.
What do you think about it from a large-cap strategy?
Is it a dumb idea?
Should they just buy back stocks?
It's pretty, I mean, I don idea? Should they just buy back stock? It's pretty, I mean,
I don't know if they should buy back stock here.
You either invest in growth
or try to,
you know,
reach your tentacles out.
What Jensen's trying to do
is reach his tentacles out.
I mean,
when we were at the Q&A
with Jensen,
Evan,
me and Evan
and Ahmed were there
a couple of weeks ago
at GTC.
When we were in that
private Q&A with the press,
he said,
he was asked this question about the investments that he'd been making recently.
And his response was that he's trying to, you know, get exposure to all parts of the
AI industry.
That was his explanation.
He's like, I want, I want NVIDIA to have, you know, our hand in all of these different
baskets.
So his approach here is reaching his tentacles out.
He's got money in Nebius.
He's got money in Light and Coherent and in Marvell now.
And his perspective is, okay, let's see if any of these turn out to be massive conglomerates in the long run.
And then our $2 billion investment will be worth much more more i think the risk reward is pretty good for him you know because
he also has the ability to a degree as the most powerful semiconductor company on earth well the
second most powerful i would still call tsm the most powerful but he has a an ability as the second
most uh powerful semiconductor company on earth to sort of dictate the fates of a lot of these companies too.
So, you know, it's sort of activist investing in a roundabout way.
Not really, but in a roundabout way it is.
And so I think that's interesting.
Yeah, I don't mind his investment at all.
Marvell is a company I think is a really, really solid company.
I actually thought about buying it late last year.
I should have, but I thought about buying it late last year
and making it a major position.
But yeah, it's a little bit extended here for my taste
from a trailing valuation standpoint.
So I'll be patient.
But yeah, I do like that company a lot.
And I think it was a good investment.
Interesting.
I'm excited to see what their 13Fs start to look like here at some point.
It'll be fun to watch.
You have any thoughts on lithium or uranium here?
I know we've talked about this one a little bit and I've asked this
way and it's been a bunch of different conversations you still own leu lithium was a name from my
something we were looking at 2022 you have definitely said that you are not super interested
in it I have seen relative strength and lithium names this year though a lot of relative strength
in those stocks but now I'm not you know what though But that's what stock talk says when he's not interested and he just wants to not throw me off
No, there has been relative strength in those names. I mean, that's not a lie
That's actually true they've been lithium I think the late ETF or whatever it's called has been like very strong this year
li mi which is
Leverage is a four percent five percent what's lit up let's see
i don't know if it's over the whole year but i remember looking at a relative strength graph
like a week ago and i remember the lithium trade being on it so yeah there's some relative strength
there but no i'm not interested in it from an investment standpoint anymore i had a thesis on
it years ago but i was too early and I just didn't time it right.
But, yeah, that was something I was interested in years ago.
Like I said, I think that's largely attached to the EV trade in a way.
So, yeah, that's just not something I'm interested in right now. I'm much more interested in, like, robotics and autonomy in the next stage of all of that than I am in EVs and lithium.
It's not really an area of focus for me anymore.
The reason why SolarEdge has had excessive outperformance
in the last week, like it's literally sitting there,
it's 52, I think it's 52, but it has not went down
with the market.
I don't know.
I mean, you know, relative strength.
I don't know if there's any catalyst for it recently.
Yeah, it has to be a micro catalyst here
because the other solar stocks are not doing well.
I don't know.
Just in case I don't know,
I'll probably just end up looking it up. Yeah, I don't know. I wish I could answer that for you, but I don't know just in case i don't know i'll probably say i'm looking it up
yeah i don't know i wish i could answer that for you but i don't know i don't follow that
stock really anymore but chart looks interesting here look at it's trying to bottom out
yeah man look at that freaking chart it's like breaking out of a multi-year
yeah wow yeah nice chart it's an israeli company so maybe there's something there maybe they're going
to get some contracts from from israel because israel probably is going to put a lot more into
solar just to have you know safety and energy uh you know at a at a at a home level so i'm just
guessing i have no idea but but it does explain that maybe that's the reason.
There's one other thing.
Just going back, I am not a fan of companies investing in other public companies,
especially investments of this size, because it creates havoc on your adjusted income, you know, all the time, right?
One-time items create huge problems.
The best examples are, you know, Coinbase where, you know, quarter over quarter, you
have to adjust, you know, the circle numbers out of it because that moves it, you know,
a few hundred percent sometimes.
It's not going to move that much for NVIDIA, but it adds up.
If you have a dozen public companies and you've invested a couple of billion in each of them
at the, you know, somewhere near the peak of the, you know, AI valuation here,
it can cause havoc for quarter over quarter comparisons down the road.
So you have to, you know, really pay attention.
But then, you know, it's also possible that, you know, market reacts
as soon as they see the headline number,
that would be an opportunity for a trade there.
I personally don't like the idea of public companies
investing in other public companies
because it creates a mess.
Yeah, I have definitely seen it.
Some of them are weird.
Sometimes we get some massive negative prints.
Like Michael Saylor and Strategy deal with this. I think they had like a negative $70 EPS or something.
One of these quarters. Fair enough.
Yeah, Marvel's not even a small company either. So I found that kind of odd as well.
I don't know.
I just thought it was an interesting strategy,
something I hadn't necessarily seen too much going on.
We should be having Paul.
If you are in here, Paul, you should request up,
joining us up here in a second or two.
Yeah, one of the things I did want to talk about was uranium and lithium and that whole part of it
i think it's an interesting conversation that we have coming up here
so one other quick comment right uh an investment in uh
in uh in marvel right uh sort of, and Intel, right, taken together,
now AMD and Avago are the outliers, right?
Everybody else is sort of related to the, you know, the NVIDIA-led complex here.
complex here. Maybe there's some push to do something with ASICs there. I don't know.
It just seems to me that the loser in all this will likely be if it works. If it gets
written off, then yeah, maybe nothing. But if there is a strategic partnership there
and it goes beyond just a passive investment,
then it does isolate Avago or Broadcom and AMD.
So, I don't know uh it definitely does and we'll see what ends up playing out here but my goal is my thought process here it is a growing of the the tentacles and
you might even just make an investment in all these other ones
i imagine this is going to be a theme that's just going to keep going on for NVIDIA.
What is Marvel's market cap?
$3 billion.
$93, okay, yeah.
I think you said maybe $3 there.
So, I mean, pretty big company.
I wonder how big they'll be willing to go.
Yeah, it's definitely not a small company at all
um they're up like 20 in the last few days so it's like how much can this
company move like i guess it's considered a large a large cap now so
there have to be some serious money plowing into the same a little bit
yeah this rate nvidia will soon be running a semi etf on the side
we're a little mini berkshire half the way for him in here in the semiconductor space
spin off the business
which which etf company or sorry which semiconductor company
you think is next
where would you put your money
no idea man
all I want to see
is that
mid 70s or higher
margin number to stay
that's it
that's how long we know this AI, you know, infra demand is going,
right? When you start seeing that number slip significantly, then it's a problem. That means,
you know, their ability to dictate price is potentially weakening. One quarter doesn't do
anything, right? It could be for any number of reasons but if we start to fall
behind consistently you know below that 75 mark uh then then i would worry right now the rest i
really don't care what happens it was interesting we do have um with the IPO Google they own 7.4% of SpaceX I
believe that was before the merger with XAI and stuff so I don't know what it is
necessarily now but Google should get the benefit of that one-time hit here
most analysts I have I have seen recently put at 1.75 trillion Google's Google's profit from
open AI investment is something in the region of 110 to 125 billion I mean come
on W's in the chat that's pretty crazy that's wild that's more than that's about what buffet made on apple he said
yeah and they have just under 15 percent of uh of anthropic and two or three percent of
databricks and uh 80 something percent of waymo you know it adds up their their uh you know it adds up their their you know private investment shop is doing
did one heck of a job at one point in time listen when you're shooting for
those big 10 20 X's you just need one or two winners in there and then it pays
for a lot of the losers yeah but can you imagine if if it lists at 1.75
trillion and comes down to 1.25 trillion,
adjusted numbers for Google might actually be a loss in one of the quarters.
Yeah, I mean, they'll get a big benefit first,
and then there'll be a loss coming down.
I do hear what you're saying.
It'll be more volatile.
But you take $100 billion.
That's their gain.
How much do they invest in it?
I think they invested a total of $7 billion or something but but it's irrelevant right i mean
if they take that profit it would be awesome but even even if the price were to increase
substantially after that if they take that profit it goes a long way in strengthening their balance
sheet even further and you know because even further because they've been raising
debt, right? It's not a problem
yet, but
you can't keep going at
the rate they're going forever, right?
$175 billion in the coming year.
So take
$100 billion profit would not be a
bad way to, you know,
get control of that tax.
That was a good one sorry mine just made me laugh
all right seasons are changing the allergies come you know you gotta you gotta clear the throat every once in a while i get it who i was uh stock talk it was no one sorry
uh It was Stock Talk. It was no one. Sorry. Listen, Google also owns a lot of Anthropic, too.
Yeah, I mean, look, I still don't understand how Anthropic is valued at $350 billion if OpenAI is valued at 850.
So I guess the only way that makes sense is OpenAI is really not that valuable, right?
It's nowhere close to that 850.
Otherwise, I think Anthropic's number would be larger.
But 350 is a very large number.
I don't think OpenAI is as valuable as they claim.
think open ai is valued is is as valuable as they claim i mean you you you're starting to see reports
that you know secondary market you know there's not much takers for large size offerings of of open ai
it's one messed up company
you got me wanting to write a post here on Google Google's taking the company could be worth more than 100 billion dollars Wow then at Rappick to I mean
all right that's it's it's the benefits Google's gonna have 150 billion dollars
from investment yeah I mean 20 probably I think all said and done,
including the stake in Waymo,
they're probably sitting on close to 200 billion in profits
in their entire portfolio.
That's pretty crazy.
Make sure you cite ex-Google employee as the source on that.
I don't get it.
Oh, okay. I do get it.
Oh, come on.
That was an easy one.
I said I came back.
I got it after.
It happens sometimes.
It's been a long day.
What's up, Brian?
It's just another day living the dream. Just another day living the dream.
I was watching your stream a little bit.
I saw you shout out the like button.
And then I also saw you shout out Leverage Shares a little bit.
Shout out, shout out.
We got themes tweaking up in the nest above.
We got a bunch more tickers up in the nest above.
Our channel partners, channel friends, leverage shares support us,
allow us to do all our spaces for free.
There's a tweet pinned up in the nest above with all their sector ETFs that they have,
if there's any ones that are interesting for you.
But how are you doing, sir?
Pretty good.
A little follow-through day, back above the daily nine.
Top of the day rejected the 21, and basically some of the back test area so i don't know um kind of expected today to happen
the way it did now the question is what happens next is do we get some follow-through what does
be honest here you're going to be trading during when he's talking tonight.
This guy is going to be on the futures chart.
Frickin click clacking, right?
Probably.
Probably.
I mean, because I think today and tomorrow or tonight
and then tomorrow morning is your reaction to whatever he says.
And then by tomorrow afternoon,
it's going to start tapering off into the holiday.
So I think there might be some opportunities tonight.
You trading any of these prop firms?
I hear there's a lot of codes going.
A lot of discount ones.
What do you trade on?
I'll get a few different ones.
Give me what we're using.
Top Step is the main one.
I'll trade a five.
And then I'll start trying out this Lucid one as well.
But I'll have uh i'll have
him up ready to get ready to go whenever he starts talking 9 p.m eastern so if you're uh in la at work
and you get off at five you'll probably still be in traffic when he starts but you might make it
home in time chat to code wolf and get the best discount at those prop firms.
They're all doing some discounts here. Yeah, with Vanquish, right?
They're doing 50% off. We're just trying with Vanquish that does
they're an options
prop firm. I know there's probably a lot more
options traders here in the crowd.
So if you're
trying to learn options,
I don't know, I would highly recommend
don't blow your own money trying to follow different people's trades or learn to trade or whatever you're trying to learn options, I don't know, I would highly recommend don't blow your own money trying to follow
different people's trades or learn to trade
or whatever you're doing.
Try a prop firm out.
I feel like the way prop firms
work too,
I think Logical could cook on Vanquish.
Well,
they're only
day trading.
Interesting.
Logical,
especially Stock Talk could never
work on those because they're
for day trading.
But if you're
a good day trader,
get on there, make some extra income on the side.
What it helps me do is for
longer swing trades, it helps me not think
about them and keep them to the side
because I'm day trading in the action. I'm mostly doing the futures, but it separates that from looking at my
swing trades with every in and out move, which, you know, Stock Talk does a great job of having
conviction. I have that like, I want to over tinker with things like trade. And so for me to
like separate that, it's actually helped me a lot to separate swing
trades kind of out of mind, out of sight and just do the day trading elsewhere.
That's fair.
Do you use like these trade connectors or whatever?
So you're like, so like you're taking the same trade across multiple accounts?
I do a little bit.
Not like some people like Jordan and some others where they link all these different accounts across.
I like to trade maybe two accounts together at the most and make a profit on that one, shut it down, and move on to the next one.
That's what's worked best for me.
Every trader is different.
Everyone has a different psychological battle that they'll go through as a trader,
whether it's the greed side of things or the fear side of things,
cutting it too quick, holding losses too long.
For me, it was like being up on the day and then taking another
trade and like giving some back that would start, that would like trigger me into the spiral. So
what, what I did was just, okay, that account's done. I made a good trade on that one, shut it
down, move somewhere else that has a zero baseline profit for the day. And for whatever reason,
that was the mental trick that my brain needed to kind of separate things.
Yeah. All right. That's fair.
How was your day, Evan? There was a ton of headlines today.
There was a lot of headlines.
I'm sure you covered them all, but boy, there's a lot of stuff in our little group chat that we have.
Yeah, there was a lot of stuff.
We had a lot of back and forth from the conflict and what they're going to say tonight.
The SpaceX IPO, that's interesting.
Finally getting that.
Yeah, well, June was the target date I saw on the headline today.
Yeah, June.
And then 4-21 is when they're doing a little address on it, Analyst Day.
I thought the Eli Lilly thing was pretty interesting as well.
I don't know.
I didn't think it was that great even if they would get to.
What was the headline on that Eli Lilly?
Was it GLP-1s and pill form?
Yes.
Eli Lilly's first weight loss pill got approved.
It's the second weight loss drug out there, but it is there at first.
I was in the pharmacy the other day down here,
and there was a whole list.
We go V and all the different ones.
There was like five of them.
It was just,
they just had it right there at the register
letting you know that,
hey, if you're fat,
we've got the solution.
We got you covered.
Eli Lilly, nice day.
Yeah, I'm not surprised on that one.
I didn't think it was the craziest news days.
There was a couple stories.
Craziest of news days.
There's a couple stories.
One or two big ones.
But besides that, I don't know.
I think this is a market kind of waiting.
People are afraid to put out the things that they have.
I also think that the fact that it's a shortened weekend
shortened week
I don't know, a long weekend.
Yeah,
holiday week for a lot of people.
Yeah.
And that's why I kind of think, okay,
so you have tonight,
I guess we love to do
game theory these days, but you have
tonight, you're whatever Trump's going to say,
which is a big wild card.
Then you'll have reactions to it in the overnight futures market.
And then really at the open tomorrow, you'll have further reactions,
either repositioning or more short covering something.
You'll have a reaction to whatever his comments are tonight.
And then probably by lunch tomorrow,
you have people start checking out into the long weekend. I mean, yes, Friday is not a true federal holiday, but the markets are tonight. And then probably by lunch tomorrow, you have people start checking out into
the long weekend. I mean, yes, Friday is not a true federal holiday, but the markets are closed.
So anybody that's in the market-related activities, they're probably packing up the desk
around lunch tomorrow. Yeah, that makes sense. I would. I'm sure tomorrow I'll still be here on Friday as well.
But most people are going to be packing up early.
I will say we were supposed to be joined here by Paul from Leverage Shares.
But I do believe that he is in the other side of the world.
So I think something's happened there.
But, you know, we are big supporters of the Leverage Shares team.
They're big supporters of us.
We do appreciate them, as always.
Posting some really great content on their account.
There is a tweet pinned up in the nest above with a bunch of the ETFs that they have that we talk about going forward.
We'll talk about it more when they are on here.
But we always appreciate Paul and the Leverage Shares team.
They got a lot of single stock ETFs here. They got a lot of single stock ETFs here.
They got a lot of single stock leverage ETFs.
They have a lot of thematic ones in here kind of covering lithium.
The LIMI ETF is their one.
They have URAN, which is the uranium one.
They have a humanoid robot ETF under the ticker BOTT.
But, you know, just make sure you're going in, being informed investors.
We do appreciate them for supporting us, working with the team.
Big supporters of the stuff that we are doing.
Really appreciate the Leverage Shares team. Big fan of Paul as well.
Guy who comes on here most of the time. Yeah, good stuff.
Are we getting this moon launch tonight?
Are we talking about the stock market?
Oh, like them going to this Artemis 1 mission? Are we getting this moon launch tonight? We talking about the stock market?
Or like, oh, like them going to this Artemis 1 mission?
No, the actual mission tonight where they're supposed to launch and go to the moon.
Engineers have now resolved a problem
with the hardware that communicates
with the flight termination system.
I mean, too many...
They're supposed to launch tonight.
The flight window opens in like an hour.
It's 624 to 824.
Eastern.
Gotcha.
This makes sense.
Okay.
That makes sense.
What you were saying last night, but too, as well.
Here's what I'll say, though.
Come back to the moon.
We're going to the moon on the same night.
We got a speech here where we're coming up to retest this moving average.
Guys, clearly we are going to break through
that moving average tomorrow.
Evan, every time you say this, you jinx
800 people on this thing. It's just clearly going to happen.
I mean, we're going to the moon.
Watch out. Now, if the flight
doesn't take off, that's a different conversation, but
we are literally going to the
moon.
Well, you know, just from the market perspective,
nothing, what's changed? we have a low oversold
oversold back into the moon short covering we're going everything's changed well oil is still at
on the moon right now it's still at a hundred dollars a barrel and that that's still a problem
yeah we'll see what he says tonight
I don't know
I do appreciate everyone for joining us
you should make sure you're following the speakers
shout out to Ryan
StockSniper
the Wolf account
if you enjoy live free content
a lot of stuff like this
make sure you're following that Wolf account
StockTalk as well
he's taking up a lot of stuff like this make sure you're following that wolf count stock talk as well co hosting these spaces going on the uh he's taking up a lot of time on these spaces and you know we
enjoy it i'm sure a lot of you guys are here for him so make sure you're giving him a follow if
you aren't already check out the cool stuff that he is doing posting some tweets out there
and obviously the group the link in his bio if you enjoy these live free conversations if you
enjoy the spaces make sure you are following this account you should give the uh you should
turn on notifications for the stocks on spaces account anytime we go live it is just monday
through thursday 3 to 5 p.m eastern but we don't tweet that much it's mostly just spaces and then
when we're also going live so just spaces content but
i appreciate everyone for joining in.
Stock Talk, is there anything you want to leave the people with heading into tomorrow?
Just listen to the speech tonight.
Pay attention to the action tomorrow.
the 200 days, like like right above our heads on both spy and the queues. 21 EMA, 200 airs sitting pretty much a couple bucks off each other. So
pretty close. You know, that's 659 to 662 band on the S&P 500 overhead. You need to take that out.
If we get rejected there tomorrow, and especially
if we get rejected there tomorrow and fall
back below the 90MA,
that's probably not a good sign.
In that kind of situation,
you may want to lighten up exposure, maybe pick up
some hedges, yada, yada, yada.
So, yeah.
Let's just see what happens. Listen to the
speech, and then watch the market reaction tomorrow morning.
I will see you guys.
Well, I guess we will be live tomorrow.
We will be live tomorrow.
I forgot it's not Friday.
It's Thursday.
So we'll see you guys tomorrow.
I'm manifesting the title.
Big green day, 200 Day Recapture.
What are we buying?
2% down day.
God damn.
I should have picked up more hedges today.
Listen, watch out. It's coming.
You know, best letter in the alphabet?
Flying V. Have a great one everyone
