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ELON MUSK VS TRUMP
Recorded: June 5, 2025 Duration: 3:08:27Space Recording
Short Summary
In a turbulent market day, discussions centered around the implications of the Elon Musk-Trump feud, highlighting potential shifts in partnerships and funding for tech and crypto initiatives. With Microsoft hitting new highs and the political landscape evolving, the crypto community is poised for significant changes.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Good afternoon. Welcome in. What an interesting day going on in this market. Boy, we have a lot to talk about today,
and I'm sure it's going to be very interesting. A lot of things going on. Quick market update as
we jump into it, just so we know where we're at here. We are slightly red. And by slightly red,
I mean less than 0.1% red on the S&P. Tech down a little bit more, about a quarter of a percent.
percent red on the S&P, tech down a little bit more, about a quarter of a percent. IWM, Dow,
both still green so far for the day. Microsoft, new all-time highs, is clearly the leader of big
tech. And then most of you probably know, Elon Musk and Trump are going through an ugly breakup breakup right now tesla's down 13 percent today down to 287 uh share and uh i'm sure we'll cover
all of that um a lot of other things going on trump did you see the newest one that he just said
oh gosh trump just said uh the easiest way to save money our budget billions and billions of
dollars is to terminate elon's government subsidies and contracts i was surprised that biden didn't do it oh boy yeah well there's
a whole laundry list oh i can't wait to have this conversation today oh it's gonna be uh gonna be a
good one for sure i'm working on getting everybody up here uh there were some other things that
happened too of course uh but i mean that's going to be the talk of the town uh trump and xi g however it's uh properly pronounced i don't know the um proper pronunciation
but either way uh president xi of china they spoke they're going to speak again at some point
soon um both parties kind of spun it as a positive talk um and yeah german chancellor is there he's getting a front row seat
to this entire thing too so either way i'm ready to jump into it uh because i want to know what
everybody's got on their mind evan uh i shot you co-host what are you up to evan are you having a
good day evan top ticked this short on tesla all right nothing from Evan. Cool.
Stop talking.
What up?
Do you want to lead off today before I throw it around,
or do you want to throw it around first?
I'm sure we'll talk plenty about the Elon Trump thing,
so I'll give my opinion on that.
But yeah, let's get to the panel first.
I'll just go take Leo down in the meantime, and then we can wrap back around for my usual rant at the end.
Perfect, perfect.
All right, let's talk trading markets a little bit,
what all is going on here,
and then we'll probably deep dive into that at some point.
Options, Mike, go ahead.
Kick us off, as always, my friend.
Yo, yo.
And obviously you can mention Tesla.
I mean, we're not saying you mentioned Tesla right now.
A lot of people probably traded that too.
I'm giggling here watching this today.
It's like watching two kids fight.
You knew this was going to happen eventually, and here it is.
I'm the only person that lost money on Tesla today
because I tried to long it on a bunch of flow.
My calls came in the first bounce before things really blew up.
But that aside, the markets are holding in OK.
And, you know, if we take Tesla out, which I think it's down, what, 12 percent now, give or take.
The SPY is, you know, near lows of the day.
So the Q's and the Q's obviously getting heavily weighted by Tesla.
But we haven't broken any levels. We're having a a little bit of a sell today and overall i don't feel anything's
changed you know again some of the data this morning the jobs numbers were um jobless claims
were way up and you know some of these numbers just haven't been good we have non-farm payroll
tomorrow we have abgo earnings tonight but if you look around what's going on, Microsoft, a new all-time high.
We've been talking about that for a week now and watch it exploded here and going.
Netflix put another new all-time high.
I say that every freaking day lately.
For me today, I tried to take Palantir.
It didn't work for me.
I got a little beaten up early today before I found a couple of nice trades.
That one didn't quite work out for me.
NVIDIA tried to break to the upside today and then it came back in with the markets. I added a new stock to my portfolio,
Black Sky BSKY for a long-term hold based upon what they're doing with Amazon, the satellites,
and just as a starter position there. Quite a real nice trade on Amazon as it broke out today trying to go.
And then caught a crushing trade on Circle, the new IPO today, after the first halt and just caught that for a real nice ride.
But, you know, when you look around the markets here, you know, there's nothing that really bothers me.
Hood put in a new multi-year high before drifting back down.
Palantir is getting punished on this.
Republicans are concerned about what they're doing with Trump and want to put the brakes and kill that.
The semis are kind of quiet here today ahead of Avgo earnings tonight.
Meta is holding in fine.
Apple is actually holding in fine today.
You know, this is really kind of a Tesla Palantir thing that's putting the pressure on the queues.
And if you look around, everything else still feels fine.
As far as where do I see that going?
I'm going to let stock talks really pontificate on this because I'm sure we're going to have a good one there.
I think this is just something that was going to happen.
It took longer than I expected.
And it does have the potential to fracture the Republican Party. think this is just something that was going to happen it took longer than i expected and
it does have the potential to fracture the republican party um because of elon's um clout and his ability for fundraising or to fundraise against you i think the you know there's no doubt
that the house bill is dead on arrival at this point in the senate and that's going to be so
reworked but at the same end of the day tesla as long as they deliver, they're going to be fine.
Now, if Trump was to pull their FSD license or something like that, there could be problems. But
I was just going over levels of my member. We just broke below the 50-day here. I think 280
is your next big level, then 260. And boy, 220, as long as the news wasn't bad in terms of
robotics wasn't killed, the cyber taxi wasn't killed, the FSD wasn't killed the cyber taxi wasn't killed the FSD
wasn't killed right I think 220 would be a gift for this name as we move forward
outside that non farm payroll tomorrow abgo tonight and I don't think
anything's really changed we're just sideways and still digesting and don't
have the strength yet to really power up to the all-time high
strength yet to really power up to the all-time high. Got in the bigger picture of the market
today, obviously pushing up. We got right to that 6,000 SPX and got absolutely smacked after that.
Yeah. I mean, it's a big level. 600, 6,000.
First time you touch it. Yeah. And it's not like volumes through the roof. We're higher. We're 59 million shares on the SPY today,
but it's not like there's massive selling pressure here on the markets.
I like it.
There's also a lot of other things that was going on.
Palantir today, there's a story out on them
and some of the government spending with them.
Obviously, all these other space names spending with them uh obviously all these other
these space names asts all these other names are all getting a pop right now uber was getting a pop
a lot of news driven stuff uh did you get in on anything else options mike anything other
i mean i know we talked a lot about tesla but well anything else you're kind of doing or looking at
here i i went over it i think um i added blue sky to my long-term account
um and some amazon calls for july because i like to break out and uh other than that i'm just kind
of sitting tight on the stuff i currently have i still have amazon long term i still have amd i
still have uh snow i still have the queues to spy and ibit There you go. And Microsoft might be the most resilient stock in the whole market right now, too, by the way.
Unbelievable.
Unbelievable, right?
New all-time highs.
I appreciate that options.
Mike, Wolfie, let me go over to you next and see what thoughts you have.
Yeah, overall market.
I mean, I pretty much have been trimming and selling.
You know, today's one of those days for me where like, you know, a lot of times I'm like,
what the fuck am I doing this?
I'm having a bad day.
Today's one of those days where I'm having, you know, I think you too, Emp, are having
one of those days too, where it's like, you know, whatever I'm working with is just working.
So today's a good day for me.
Ended up taking profits on Mongo sold
some data dog sold some Adobe I took up I took a position options position in in
a bio crisp CRSP you know NBIS yesterday was alerted here on the CNBC
thing it kind of took some core weaves money then I was a beneficiary of that
been booking some profits actually flipped some Corwee's money. I was a beneficiary of that. I've been booking
some profits. I actually flipped some of the calls that I had. I had 40 strikes. I ended
up rolling those up and out to 55 strikes. I have a couple of other names that people
don't really watch and they're working. So one of them was Children's Place, took some profits there.
They've got earnings, so I don't want to be too much, but, or they've got, they've got
an investor day. I think I don't, I don't, I don't remember which one it was, but anyways,
took some profits there. So I've just been kind of taking profits. I said yesterday,
we were talking about Tesla that I saw that it can get to the 200 day. I did have a short on the table.
I was lucky, I guess.
It exceeded all my targets.
Now, you know, options Mike said 280.
Below that, you have 272.
And then you have a 200 week at 255.
So I'm out like 90% of it, 95% of it.
Even the roll down now is starting to get expensive. So I'm going to
be out most of that. I think, you know, I think from that perspective, from the Tesla perspective,
I, I'm kind of the shocking part for me was that, you know, just how, like how much smoke
Musk wants right now on the front end of it, right?
So that's the shocking part to me.
The other thing that I think is interesting.
All the smoke.
He wants all the smoke.
All of it, which that's the shocking part to me.
It's not like I, it's as though he wants to out-trunk Trump, basically, which is kind of wild to me.
out-trunk Trump, basically, which is kind of wild to me. But the second thing, and I mentioned this
a couple of days ago, and now it's even more prescient, is Kimball Musk selling the top again,
basically like to the penny. So I know how people love the Pelosi tracker. Someone needs a Kimball
Musk tracker. And it's like every time this guy sells
Tesla, you see a 20 to 30% sell off within like weeks. Right. So in this case, it was days.
So that's, that's the major stuff. I know we have Avgo after the bell. I was looking for a runup
of Avgo into, into earnings. I mentioned it yesterday that i cut it um i just and then you have docusign as
well which is one that's kind of like been turning around as of late and so i'm curious to see if
that continues um for the tesla thing you know if you want some i don't know if you want some
you know thoughts or whatever but uh i can i I, I, can I interrupt you?
Elon just said, yeah, trying to drop the really big bomb. Real Donald Trump is in the Epstein files.
This is the real reason they have not been made public. Have a nice day.
DJ T.
Yeah. So, all right. Um, I, I don't,
I think this is one of those things where they could make an example of Elon.
That's just my opinion. I know briefly it was mentioned in this space that a third party might be a good thing.
I don't think Elon's the conduit to it. I think it becomes the enemy of my enemy is my friend type of thing.
I think, you know, it becomes the enemy of my enemy is my friend type of thing.
I thought it was interesting that when Trump originally talked about the bill, he reached out across the aisle to, I forget her name, the senator that did the insurance thing from 2007.
I forget her name.
It alludes to me right now. But I thought it was interesting.
He reached out to a Democrat before he reached out, you know, to,
to, to other sides of the party. And I think that,
I don't think that the Germany thing is actually like the, the,
the German chancellor or the German representative representative being in the
white house while all this goes down is actually ironic because there's another avenue for, like, enemy of my enemies, my friend type of thing.
So I don't think, you know, I mentioned it when it was at 360, there's a 50% reach rate from peak to trough.
It ends up now failing that 50% reachace, which is a general bearish thing.
And then from just like a sentiment perspective, it's going to get even worse, in my opinion, now that he said this especially.
And I, you know, I know there's a lot of, I've been one of them.
I've been a long Tesla shareholder from, you know, 2013.
So I know there's a lot of people that are really adamantly pro Tesla and Tesla's technologies
and stuff, but until like, there's some kind of decay period where there's none of this shit going
on, don't step in front of the falling knife is my, is my opinion. You know, if you're going to
just like add some for long-term nibble here and nibble there, I'm not going to tell you what to do.
But just from a trading perspective, don't try to be a freaking hero.
We talk about it all the time.
You want the meat of the move.
You don't want the edges.
You don't want the edge cases.
This is going to be a perfect example because this thing was at 325 on the highs today.
We're looking at like 280 just cracked.
So that's, that's my opinion.
I think it's going to get, I think it's possibly going to get a lot worse before it gets better for Tesla and for Elon.
Can we get 220?
Can we get 220?
Listen, Mike, I'm with you.
But I think this is one of those things.
I really do.
I think this is one of those things where if it sees 220, I think it'll see 200 before it sees higher.
It depends upon the news i think i
don't disagree i think by the way he just created dj donald's trump stock it's dropping like
freaking i mean this is just now of every public food yeah so you know and and i just that accusation
like like that accusation and that tweet i'm not going to touch the narrative. Well, it's libel.
Exactly.
It's libelous.
Exactly.
100%.
That accusation is, and you're doing it against the president of the United States.
So like if there's no meat to it and it's just that, like the purveyor of free speech, quote unquote, is at least going to get a talking to.
And that's just being generous with
how you word it. And likely they're going to come after him. And that's not something that you want
to be a part of. When I say the 220 thing, I'm just talking just strictly technicals. You can
draw a trend line. That 220 level that it hit last time was a part of an uptrend that it's still in.
It ended up holding it four times, I think. The next level for that trend would probably be around 235, 240.
So if it got to 220, my basis of that comment is if it got to 220, it would have been a break in that trend, which is a pretty substantial thing.
It's a three or four year trend.
So that's kind of where I'm coming from.
Yeah.
So I think I don't want to hog it.
I know there's going to be a lot of meat on the bone to go around, so I don't want to hog it right now.
But last note is I said a couple of days ago and I did it again today.
I'm bidding some VIX calls.
I don't think it's a bad idea to do this, especially during some of these headlines that you're going to see.
during some of these headlines that you're going to see
if you've got the
president or the wealthiest
guy in the world
making pedophilia
accusations against the president.
Stuff might get really ugly
across the board.
I'm out of breath over here.
I'm sweating.
What a day.
I appreciate that, Wolfie.
Cy, how are you, sir?
Bro, this is wild.
What the hell is happening?
As a Tesla shareholder, I'm like, this is exhausting on what's happening with Tesla stock price, especially the past couple of years.
And I'm very fortunate that this didn't drop 30.
I was just on TV talking about this.
And I went with the narrative
that I think this is just poetic chaos
where I think it'll resolve itself in the end.
I think this bomb is not going to resolve itself now.
So holy moly, this is crazy.
I'm not going to be adding tesla anytime soon i don't think
it sounds 17 now it's just crashing i you have to ask yourself like where this came from all of a
sudden how they it felt like it was somewhat of uh staged because of how aggressive out of nowhere
it was in the back and forth.
Like he,
Trump's a free leader of the world. Like why is he being so active on this pettiness right now on the back and
forth?
So I felt like it was somewhat staged,
but clearly this is like,
are the gloves coming off and are we gonna get some real Intel?
Like what's being hidden behind closed doors?
This is,
is this Elon just trying to mask over a potential
execution error next week in austin he wants to tilt the attention away from there i i don't know
it feels like there's definitely a it's a move on elon's front and yes people think that he lost
his marble he's been losing his marbles. I don't think he is.
I think this is some kind of pawn in some greater move that he's trying to get at.
We don't know what that reality is going to be.
Maybe if it's a delay in Austin,
like he wants to create chaos elsewhere
or just he's trying to leverage POTUS into something
and I don't think you can leverage POTUS into anything.
And this sucks because he lost a lot of social capital during Q4 of last year and Q1 of this
year to help Trump out.
Like he was the first buddy.
Now they're on rocky terms.
And what did Elon get to show for it?
Like after experiencing six months of essentially being the punching bag for the Trump presidency,
like there really wasn't much to show for it at all.
So I think it was a really bad game on his end.
If this is what the end terminal goal is, terminal outcome is going to be from this.
I have a hard time believing it, but either way, it's a brutal day to be a Tesla shareholder.
I'm hoping that this will resolve itself in the long run, but picking an enemy against
the East on China versus US tariffs now domestically, it's a really dangerous combo as a Tesla shareholder.
I do think this is a bruised black eye.
End of the day, I do think they are building the neural network of physical AI in the long run if you like zoom out.
But it this stock is I don't know when it's going to recover if this continues and escalates
because it went from zero to 100 real quick, like really quickly.
And I can't imagine what's going to be like tomorrow or over the weekend.
And yeah, it's troubling.
And you have to ask yourself all
right tesla is clearly experiencing this headwind who's going to benefit from this uh i gotta say
i'm sorry but if this escalates i do think space x will get affected in some way what's the
beneficiary for space x with s1 neutrons around the corner rocket lab might catch a bit from this if this
continues and gets worse I just start thinking about what's the secondary effects of that's this
pettiness that's happening right now between potus and nilon and just enjoy the show even though for
me it's what was it before today I was in it was my 10th position in my portfolio now it's probably
gonna be dropping to 13 or 14.
so i'm experiencing it's a five percent position i'm experiencing a uh one and a half percent
a headwind on my portfolio today but this is wild you got uh i've never seen anything like this but
i'll pass uh we can return back to me after regarding like earnings yesterday and uh broadcom
uh earnings this afternoon closer to the bell.
I just I'm sure we want to pass it around to see everyone's input on this new reality show that we're all watching right now.
Yeah, Wolfie, I'll pass it to you.
Yeah, jump in, Wolfie.
Yeah, I was just going to play off that.
I use the same term social capital, which is which is uh good good to be
like minds right um i posted as soon as i saw the tweet because m you're the one who told me about
the tweet i hadn't seen it and i was like what the but i posted uh immediately the same kind
of logic you want to think second order asts is another one a lot of the satellite names bounced
on the back of it as well uh uber actually got a nice little rip on the back of it as well. Uber actually got a nice little rip on the back of it as well.
Same kind of concept.
And then the...
I was just going to mention, Wolfie, almost all those names, Uber, ASTS,
all those names that popped kind of on the news are all given it back right now.
Yeah, they've given it back, yeah.
But I'm just saying that's the...
If it does have any mean, that would probably be the second or third order I'd look for.
If it does have any meat, that would probably be the second or third order I'd look for.
But the secondary comment was he asked, like, what did Elon benefit?
And he was a punching bag.
100%.
And I think the other problem with it is I think in doing this, he did two things.
He kind of ticked off other people that may have been fans of him. And then if he flips like this and makes this accusation, there's no meat to it. I worry that he's going to be viewed as the more petty of the two. And like, he will believe the narrative and push for something. And if he doesn't get his way, he'll try to crush you. And then that can come to the forefront. That's my concern with him exhausting his social capital.
I'll jump in with a couple of comments. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Like I actually completely agree with that sentiment that Elon may be a hero in the sense that he called bullshit on the previous president and he's calling bullshit on the current president.
In the sense that he's sort of like showing his independence and wanting the right things for the country and
for humanity in general. That part, you know, for people who are closely watching Elon and like
have been following him for many years, I feel like that part kind of comes through. But he is
burning his social capital in that he does appear to be a tantrum-driven child at times for people who don't know him.
And even for people who do know him because he goes into these demon modes where he's willing to rip somebody apart, including the mother of his children.
So he's losing a lot of social capital in that sense.
And I also agree with Shai, who was talking about the potential,
one of the potential beneficiaries.
I'm actually quite surprised that Rocket Lab is not up today,
but they are the only other game in town outside of SpaceX.
And they're on the verge of launching Neutron later this year and
completing that rocket, which competes with Falcon 9.
So I suspect Rocket Lab, as people sort of start to digest what is happening here and
the fact that now both Democrats and Republicans and many countries and Europe, like, hate Europe like hate this guy's guts for a variety of reasons rightly or wrongly
you know there are going to be some beneficiaries of other companies and
rocket lab will likely be one of those big beneficiaries I tend to agree with
that as well so just a couple of comments there just just one last
follow-through on that as far as I remember i haven't looked at it in a long
time but i think elon and spacex have you know the most uh satellites in space by like a wide
margin it's not like the second one is hundreds away so that just like that's to give you context
of like the gravity of how how big that that moat that they've built or they're building, how big of a risk that this is to that business.
Just to echo the Rocket Lab and some of the other comments around it.
I just want to jump back in here quick.
You know, we talked about Elon being, you know, he just – how his attitude is and everything.
But Trump's the same way.
So they're both similar, right?
Trump doesn't think either.
He just fires stuff off without thinking and says stuff.
So that's why this is so explosive is because both of them aren't taking the time to think.
They're both just firing right back at each other.
Yeah, I agree, Mike, but I think people viewed Trump as that's how Trump is.
And then I think Elon got viewed as, you know, sometimes off the cuff, but he's like,
off the cuff, but he's like, there's a little madness to the brilliance, right? And so if,
there's a little madness to the brilliance, right?
you know, he's going to go to say something that, you know, that crazy of an accusation,
and there's no meat to it, I think he might start to get labeled similar to that Trump.
Well, I mean, I agree. I mean, there better be some meat to that. That's a very dangerous
statement he made with that one. As I said, libelous, right? And so I don't disagree.
Well, I do think that there's, this is not the last of it, though.
There's going to be more comments.
He's going to get lost in the sauce.
But, like, I've been a hyper Elon fan, like, definitely a fanboy for a while.
But I'm not going to lie.
I am getting a bit exhausted on this whirlwind of just being an investor in one of elon's public companies in tesla where
it's it's a story stock like when you have two percent operating margins and you're a trillion
dollar market cap that's you have to be a story stock at the end of the day for you to justify
the current valuation and ever since november uh tesla has been catching a bid on the narrative that
trump is going to deregulate uh autonomy he's going to deregulate the humanoid process he's
going to regulate everything now that tailwind is obviously not it's not even going to return
to the mean it might return towards a headwind where he might cannibalize ev especially when the
republicans don't really
like evie and i think the industry as a whole a lot of the major players oems are going away from
evie because they're seeing hybrid as a good enough solution that the urgency towards evie
just isn't really there anymore so that's an easy win for trump as well where he can win back
deficit narrative on cutting that span.
And maybe he wasn't as aggressive as before because of Trump, Elon helping him out in
an election.
But they're doing under the belts comments like this, like the gloves are off.
And I do think that there is an exhaustion that's going to be coming at play of being
an owner of Tesla.
And if next week does not deliver, this is a hypothetical June 12th.
Isn't just a dud.
It's a bit absent where it gets pushed back two weeks.
Then it gets pushed back end of the summer.
If the deadline keeps getting pushed back, you have to ask yourself, what's the patience
level on a Tesla shareholder?
Because a lot of the Tesla shareholders today are due to them not being an EV company.
Just like myself, I'm in it because the AI software vision.
If that's not going to come to light anytime soon, you're just going to weigh in the silence
and wait it out because this could get really messy and the legality of it can also get
really messy.
It just feels like a lot of the headlines for Tesla is politics.
It's something about comp plan from Elon.
It's less about execution and it's just exhausting.
I'm sure a lot of people are feeling exhausted,
just like I am being a Tesla shareholder.
And it was a top three position for me in this year.
I have not added it at all because of all this noise.
It's now 14th for me.
I think it's crazy to say where it's almost my Rock Lab.
I'm looking at my growth portfolio right now.
It's very close to my Rock Lab position because Rock Lab just executes and has grown.
Tesla's been in this vicious range, and there's a lot of semantic layers that are anchoring
the stock down and it's just when do you just want to see that execution i'm frustrated uh i'm here
to see the show obviously it's entertaining but as a shareholder i'm like the exhaustion is definitely
wearing at me i'm sure a lot of people are feeling the same way as a Tesla shareholder. Just to put color on it, this price currently is the exact same price that it hit summer of 2021.
So for four years, the stock has been violent ups, violent downs.
downs, but then when you net net it, hasn't really gone anywhere. So I think that that is a,
But then when you net net it, it hasn't really gone anywhere.
that's a really good way of putting it, like how much patience do people have? I've always,
I've always worded it like how much benefit the data is going to get, but, you know,
patience is probably a different and a more accurate way to put it.
sorry can i ask you first what what is the risk on tesla's side here from the retaliation stuff
is it i mean obviously if there's autonomous driving regulations stuff like that but what's
what's the tesla company risk uh here from any retaliations i mean the margins is the credits
just erode their car side of the
business like although you can make the argument we know that those were kind of most likely going
to roll off either way that's what I'm saying like I was like I think I do think that's not
a variable anymore in Tesla stock I just think that a lot of people myself included like having
physical AI is going to have a lot of red tape bureaucracy associated with it yes
there's a lot of like incredible videos we're seeing in controlled environments
like the humanoid dancing and just seeing the logistics robotics and the
warehouses for Amazon even yes today's an example of an Amazon robot humanoid
robots may replace delivery truck drivers for Rivian trucks for Amazon like
there's so the application is there you're seeing the robots being at a place that nobody thought about
in a controlled environment however in the variable environment when there's humans lives are at stake
there's going to be a slow process to push that over the finish line. So that's why when we make, I'm hyper bullish on autonomy for Tesla that I do think Elon's going to capture the autonomy at scale. Nobody knows when that's
going to get there. I always thought was aggressive. That was going to be in 2026.
That was a 2027 type thing. But I think I was like, ah, I think it's 2027. But
if there is a nudge from the government side of accelerating the typical red tape bureaucracy of scaling innovations, there might be a chance.
But if we don't have that nudge from the government, I do think it's going to go through that typical frustrating extended time window of innovation scaling.
And physical AI is one that isn't as simple as
just regular AI because regular AI just offers intelligence. It's more, it's kind of a product,
but really it's just a very B2B enterprise level. Yes, there's a chat GBT more consumers, but
it's not replacing people's jobs really yet. Physical AI, there's a binary
outcome. If this succeeds, unemployment will go to 15% potentially, and not in the next couple
years, but eventually that could be a moment where it hits 15%. It's highly replaceable for a lot of
blue-collar jobs, and that's going to be a very easy margin expansion opportunity for a lot of
companies. Amazon, for example, I forgot who said this, which sell side researcher, which firm sent this note recently, but they said those robotics, logistic robotics could expand their margin retail margins to 11%.
That's insane that it would be a game changer on the DCF model, because I think right now it's, that's drastically higher than it was right now. And that's an example of these whales who are, have incredible mindshare in consumers that
are handcuffed due to convenience and pricing. If they can't really margin expansion,
their business units, that's, they're able to do that through physical AI, but there is a process.
It's highly tedious. It's highly elongated.
And I think that Tesla, for example, I'm underwriting 2027.
I know a lot of bullish analysts were underwriting 2026, even end of this year, hoping that Trump would help that out.
But if that's not the case, it's going to go through their typical red tape bureaucracy of two years probably.
Tesla doesn't belong above $300 right now.
If that FSD autonomy revenue or humanoid revenue even gets hinted at in 2027, it's way ahead of where it should be.
So that's the worry that helps answer your question.
answer your question.
Appreciate those thoughts, Shai.
Chris, we haven't heard from you this afternoon.
Let's go your direction next.
I mean, it's kind of crazy to see everything happening so publicly.
One of the theories that people were kind of throwing out there that seemed interesting was that this is just a ploy between Trump and Elon to, you know, like publicly just say words
against each other to get some of the House Republicans that have been pushing on the
salt cap increases to kind of come down a little bit.
But with the current tweet that just came up with Elon about the whole Jeffrey Epstein
thing, I think that theory is completely dead now.
So I think this is real.
This is not some kind of like 4D chess that's being played between the two.
My thing is I'm just going to kind of ignore this situation
and instead just focus on the economy, I think.
Right now, I think the job number today kind of showed a little bit
of the initial jobs claim was higher. Tomorrow, we're going to get non-farm payrolls. So I think
focusing on the real broader economy slowing down might be more of an interesting topic to me at
this point, because that's where you're going to see the real opportunities. So I think right now,
a lot of people are under-invested in longer-term treasuries.
And the reason why I say that is because everywhere I look right now, I don't know, maybe
anyone else in this comment section has something to say, but I am seeing a ton of homes coming on
the market in my area, and I'm seeing a ton of price reductions and this is like supposed to be peak buying season and it doesn't seem to be seem to be happening that way so I think irrespective
of how the the Musk and Trump situation is going I think we are going into a more disinflationary
scenario and I think this is all just window dressing you know I think we're we're gonna see
yeah we're gonna see some slowdowns coming.
I'm curious on your input on this, Chris, because I do believe what we're experiencing
in the past couple of weeks is more of a pain trade rather than a conviction rally.
I think it's just a byproduct of too much position on the sidelines.
I think Mike might have mentioned this last week where a lot of people were off-sides
on the V-shape recovery sustaining.
So I think there was just a lot of liquidity looking for a story, AKA like more passive
flows or forced alignment.
So it's not really like a fundamental reacceleration.
I do think that's what makes us like environment a bit dangerous because those ADP numbers
were weak.
Like they were absolutely weak 37 K missed.
I think the estimates were 115.
So like it's not recessionary yet, but I do believe it's a bit too close for comfort.
And the narrative of resilience is somewhat cracking if this continues, especially tomorrow's job report number.
That if the data is whispering what obviously none of the policymakers can say publicly that the labor market is actually a bit cooling off.
And what you're saying about the housing market as well,
like I do think this sets up into a dangerous environment
where like summer months are always weak volume
that if this is really a pain trade,
how long can a pain trade go?
So I'm wondering if you have like a time window
of when you think reality was set or am I wrong?
And this is actually a fundamental reacceleration
and not a pain trade.
For me, I think towards the end of this year, we're really going to see whether or not,
whether or not like the economy is strong as people are saying.
My biggest thing is when you look at when you look at shelter and housing, typically
the spring and early summer months are usually times when buyers are out and about, you know,
sellers are doing their thing. But you're not seeing nearly as many buyers as you did in the past.
And the number of sellers that are coming on the market is kind of, you know, it's accelerating.
So if you have a lot of unsold inventory going into the latter half of the summer and you're starting to see price cuts, I think eventually that data is going to seep into the CPI reports.
And so if we see sub two CPI, which believe it or not, is not that far off, and even PCE
is not that far off, then we could kind of see a combination of one economic slowdown
a little bit.
But at the same time, I think the markets actually have a position to rally if we are, if the projection of rate cuts
ends up going in the opposite direction. Right now, people are questioning whether we're going
to even get a rate cut this year. And I'm like, I'm looking at the data and everything is softening.
The Trump administration sees it. They're calling out Jerome Powell every day saying,
you need to cut, you need to cut. And so I think the straw on the camel's back is about to break.
But I think Q3 and Q4 is probably going to be the revealing part of this.
I want to dig into this Elon-Trump conversation a little bit.
I can't lie.
I feel like I want to hear Stock Talk's take on this one because obviously he's an Elon guy.
Also, someone could argue a Trump guy.
I don't know how you're feeling right now.
Yeah, I'm a me guy and I agree with certain people on certain things
and disagree with people on other things is how I would describe myself.
But yeah, I am an Elon fan and have been a supporter of his for a long time.
fan and have been a supporter of his for a long time.
And look, I have a pretty nuanced take on this, as I usually try to have on most things.
I agree with Trump on some things here, and I agree with Elon on some things.
So I'll address the disagreement first, in my opinion on it, and then I'll give some
brief comments on what's going on with Tesla stock today at the end of it, because I know
a lot of stock people in here are probably interested in that part of it.
So on the actual disagreement, Elon is right that we cannot spend in perpetuity the way
we have been spending and that every spending bill in perpetuity just gets bigger and bigger
with zero lens on the deficit or the debt.
Twenty five years ago, it wasn't an issue, neither the deficit or the debt. 25 years ago, it wasn't an issue, neither the deficit
nor the debt. And so we could maybe whistle past the graveyard a little bit easier when it came to
fiscal attitude and fiscal habits. They weren't dangerous when the debt and deficit situation
wasn't dangerous. Over the last 10 years, the deficit situation has changed dramatically.
You know, yes, this conversation has been being had for 50 years,
but really in the last decade, it has become a more magnified and a much more important
conversation because it is more pressing an issue now than it ever has been.
So Elon is right from the sense of we cannot continue to just
spend like drunken sailors with no perception of death or deficit.
That point he is right on.
I think Trump is right on the point, though, that a bill like that will never get passed.
And so the realist in anyone, I think, has to meet those opinions in the middle to say,
yes, it's irresponsible. Yes, we have to start making course correcting action when it comes
to the spending of the U.S. government, the debt and deficit, and hope that along the way, things that can boost GDP growth like robotics and AI will accelerate and like that and get the approval of all the parliamentary
or legislative people that you require to either enact, enforce it, or both?
That just never happens.
Like, we would be naive to think, and again, I want to reiterate, I agree with the fact
that there is a problem.
I also agree that we need to start addressing it immediately.
But anyone who believes that can be done any other way outside of incrementally is being naive.
Even if you think you can turn over the entire House and Senate in a single election cycle,
which you will never be able to do, but even if you thought hypothetically that you could do it,
you still would not be able to enact that sort of change.
Why? Because people, even if they're a better group of people, don't agree in numbers of the hundreds that easily.
Right. The reason the two party system has been able to pass any legislative policy at all is because they attempt to enforce a consensus view amongst the members of their party.
That's how legislation gets passed. You get all of the Republicans to agree to something or all of the Democrats to agree to something.
And in order to get to that place in the first place, you have to have provisions and pieces of legislation that you're addressing along the way.
That's what you have to have.
And you have to have a consensus view on it to get it done.
That's the only way anything gets done.
And even with that process, it still takes decades to enact any sort of meaningful change.
Do we need to readdress the process?
That's an entirely separate conversation.
But in the status quo, again, while I agree with Elon, in the status quo, getting a bill like that passed will be impossible.
that pass will be impossible, not hard, impossible. The Congress, as currently constructed,
Not hard, impossible.
has too many special interests, too many pockets to fill. A bill that dismantles parts of the IRS
or cuts overall government budget on a year-over-year basis is literally impossible to pass. There is no other, there's no debate to be had, right? You'll
get 20 votes. Maybe, maybe you'll get 20 votes if you like lobby for months to beg 20 people to see
the light and see what's good for the country. They won't. You know, all of these people want
to be reelected next cycle. And to be reelected next cycle, they have to fill the pockets of the people that put them there. That's it. Well, can I ask you a question? Didn't Elon spend the most money
in the last election? Yeah, he did. No, I'm not denying that Elon has attempted to garner political
influence, and he did so successfully in the previous election. Now he's willing to put that
political influence at risk. I mean, I don't control the guy. Do I think this is the most tactfully adept way to approach it?
I think going on a Twitter tirade is probably not the right way to approach it.
And he may be shooting himself in the foot by doing it.
He's certainly going to shoot Tesla in the foot by doing it.
But that's up to him.
However he wants to express his feeling.
All I can say is whether I agree with either of them. And I don't completely disagree with
either of them. I think it's impossible to pass the sort of bill Elon wants. And I also think
the bill is currently constructed is an abomination as have been the five previous bills before it.
Right. We spend as if there is no debtor that we will ever have to pay.
And there probably isn't a debtor that we'll ever have to pay. But the consequences to our currency
and our government debt markets is what's important. OK, it's not like somebody's going
to come knock on our door and be like, cough up the money or we're going to war with the United
States. That's never going to happen. No one can touch us in terms of threatening us militarily like that. But what can happen is we can lose economic
leadership position as a result of ignoring debts and deficits for 20 years and getting to the point
where U.S. government debt at some point becomes magnitudes less attractive than it was for the
last three decades. That's how you lose leadership position. And then very quickly after,
we'll follow the loss of the dollar as global reserve currency
as a consequence of the loss of treasury quality.
So these are the real world consequences
that happen from just whistling past the graveyard
when it comes to debt.
So yes, we need to fix the problem,
but it has to be done incrementally.
And it honestly shocks me
that that isn't obvious to everyone on both sides of the aisle.
Like the idea that either side of the aisle wants shit to change so much on a year over year basis that you're going to change foundational institutions of this country for the last 30, 40 years.
Like, who are we kidding?
Are we children?
Like, this is a very simple thing. If you want policy to be
enacted, you have to consistently elect the party or the people that support that policy over
multiple cycles and hope that they can enact enough incremental change that in five years
or 10 years or 15 years, the thing you want has improved. That's it. That's how you do it in a
democracy. Sorry, it's not any faster than that.
It's not any easier than that. And so I'd love to get shit done overnight. Trust me, it makes it
harder for us to compete with China and even to an extent to compete with Russia in certain aspects
because of the fact that authoritarian governments can snap their fingers and get things done.
You know, if you want that in this country, again, that's a separate conversation, but I don't.
That's the one thing that separates us from the pack. That's the one thing that separates us with
our competitors globally is the fact that that our leaders change and it's hard to get shit done in
this country. I wish it wasn't so hard. You know, anybody logical would say, yeah, I would love for
things to to get done at the rate that they can get done in China. Well, you need a dictator for that.
And, you know, I don't want that.
And maybe some Americans do.
But, yeah, there has to be a line in between the policy that's endorsed and the way that it's interpreted.
And, like, we have to draw a line between what your principles are
and what the policy is because those are two different things.
So I agree with Elon on the principle side,
and I think Trump is probably right on the policy side that a bill of that
can never be passed.
Yeah.
What now though?
Now we're kind of throwing stuff back at each other.
Like, I don't know.
It seems like this, these, I'm curious on what you think.
Yeah.
I don't think it's good.
I don't think it's a way out of it at this point.
Unrecognizable. You know what i'm trying to well i think after the epstein comment it's it's pretty going to be pretty hard to for elon to recalibrate that relationship i before the epstein comment
honestly everything he said today prior to the epstein comment i could see them having a meeting
and being like you know what we disagreed on this but like we're all in line and everything else and doing a press release and doing a photo shoot at the White House.
I could have totally seen that.
After the Epstein comment, I don't know.
I don't know how Trump, you know, backpedals from that or how Elon Musk.
It's over.
Can I say something?
Go ahead.
Go ahead.
Saying that somebody was on there is calling them essentially a child rapist.
There is no coming back.
Sorry.
Go for it, Wolfie.
Yeah, exactly.
Yeah, I was going to say, and I'm just, look, man, I try to be nuanced as well.
I don't try to say, like, crazy shit.
But after that comment, there's a real chance of, quote, drug overdose, end quote.
Take that how you want.
There's a tweet from 2022 that I see getting dug up from Elon that says,
if I die mysteriously overnight, don't be surprised.
That's the one I was thinking of.
And then the comments, the famous comment is him leaving Twitter to Mr. Beast.
him leaving Twitter to Mr. Beast.
So, interesting.
So interesting.
Evan, you and Stock Talk
have the back and forth about
him spending money
on party. The problem
is there's going to be
a group of people that
will believe that if
he spends the money and doesn't get his way
he'll have a tirade and that's a
very easy stance to weaponize and galvanize people against.
Yeah, I mean, I'm not going to come.
I'm not going to speculate on what the political implications might be on a forward basis.
I mean, maybe Yohan starts a third party.
Maybe they reel him back in.
But I don't know.
Again, the Epstein comment made this scenario
very like incalculable to me prior to that i was like oh okay whatever it's like a spat it'll get
solved but now i just don't know like because i don't so here's the question though these people
go for it i mean actually well one one thing i was going to say is that you know there's zero
question in most people's minds that we have a political problem.
Politicians are not there to solve problems.
Politicians, as Stock Talk mentioned, are elected by people who put money behind them.
And then the politicians are putting money back into the pockets who help them get elected.
And that's not good for the
people. And that's happening on both sides of the aisle. And unfortunately, people tend to
ignore all of the issues on their side of the aisle. And one of the things that I think,
one of the things that I like about what Elon is doing is that he is showing that both sides of the aisle are fucking you over basically.
And he's showing this to the American people. And I think that people who follow him pretty closely
are pretty convinced of that, that Elon is legitimately, he's not doing this because he's
not getting enough contracts or because of the EV tax credits or any of that other bullshit that they're trying to accuse him of.
The Democrats tried to do that, that he's throwing a tantrum and he's putting $200 million behind a candidate so that he can make billions.
And that clearly did not stick or is not going to stick.
All of those stupid arguments are going to look idiotic now.
And the Republicans, Trump is going to try to do that. And I don't think that's going to stick either because the American people have seen these problems,
have seen the government waste, have seen the budget deficits, have seen politicians talk about
these things being a problem every single election cycle, and they do absolutely nothing about it.
And here it is in plain daylight where, you know, we're talking about like Doge and budget issues and uncontrollable debt going, you know, skyrocketing and us wanting to solve these problems.
And it seems like we have a ton of momentum behind solving these problems with Doge and Trump.
And then all of a sudden, the rug is pulled from under
us. And the Trump administration is endorsing a budget that's introducing $2.5 trillion of
additional debt. So clearly, the politicians are not on people's side. Something is wrong here.
And Elon being Elon and one of the most famous and most rich and
public figures is actually making this a bipartisan issue that like, I think has an
opportunity in the long term to be very, very good for America in the short term. However,
the shit's about to hit the fan. I mean, like accusing him of being on the Epstein list. You can't come back from that. It with a couple people to, let's say, back him to a new party and Trump loses that majority, well, now he can't get anything done and goes after Elon's company.
So now everyone's losing.
That's not a scenario that everyone ends up loving.
So I don't know.
It's over, though.
I don't see them going back to each other anymore.
I don't see them going back to each other anymore.
But one of the things that I think came out of this that was really, that may have been really good is that Elon was giving a lot of legitimacy to people who were giving Trump the benefit of the doubt because of Elon.
And I think a lot of people were, you know, had major problems with Trump in the first term, had major problem with the fact that he did not
accept election results. But then we got four years of Biden, and then they were not happy
with that. And they were giving a lot of benefit of the doubt to Trump because of Elon. So Elon was
legitimizing what a lot of people, including myself, consider Trump as a con artist. He was
legitimizing him and like making him have a positive view in light of a lot of people,
especially people who were sort of, you know, like fed up with the Democratic bullshit as well
on the Democrat side, where they're sort of having transgender issues focusing on the wrong things right so
this sort of like puts it back into no no the guy is still a con artist he always has been
and uh even the guy who helped put him there and spent 250 million dollars of his own money
is now realizing that the guy is a con artist and he he got conned right so let's yeah let's keep it on
stocks a little bit i appreciate it i mean yeah this is this is the the politics of stock is
part of it you don't think that he potentially damages his own you know reputation and gets
grouped into that same category though like because that's the danger for the stock that he gets started people start to view elon that way i think there's no argument
that this run in politics has been a net positive i think it's clearly been a net negative at this
point maybe maybe we've set the groundwork for something beautiful for elon musk at his own
party and president whatever tesla to the moon i don't know but i don't see how this argument this
this foray into politics has been any
bit of a net positive for any of his companies.
Yeah, I'm just asking
Hamid, does he worry
from just a fund, like the stock,
take the politics out of it, but does he
worry that people grouping Elon
in the same vein, like
he's also
kind of like a grifter that'll say and
do whatever to get whatever he wants. A hundred percent. I mean, if you're, if you're not paying
attention to the details and like have been following this guy for many years, yeah, absolutely.
He looks like a, uh, narcissist who, he does look like a narcissist who, temper tantrums and literally is on drugs the way
he acts. And like no normal person acts the way Elon does. Now, you know, like you may agree with
Elon vehemently or you may disagree with him. But one thing you can't disagree with is that no
normal person acts this way. and that is definitely not good for
any shareholder uh at least in the short term is this new though no that's what i was going to say
at least in the short term it's not good for shareholders but you know this the elon's elon's
behavior might also be what's necessary for the types of achievements he's had right like uh no
no normal person tries to freaking make an EV company and succeeds at it, right?
Or SpaceX reusable rockets where nobody thought was possible.
So these type of accomplishments are also not going to come from a normal person.
Now in the short term, this sort of scorched earth path that Elon chooses to go is definitely not good for shareholders in the short term.
You know, can I go?
Go ahead.
I want to ask that.
I want to ask about that more about price stock talk.
Can I bring you into it about like, you know, we were kind of talking about the bill side of everything.
I saw some people, you know, talking about Twitter and they were saying, yeah, and they were saying, you know, the stock shouldn't be down this much.
The stock should be down this much.
You know, there was a massive run up in the stock going into the election and coming out of the election because of the idea that Elon would be garnering a significant amount of political influence.
Elon would be garnering a significant amount of political influence the
the reality now is is that Elon has chosen to forsake that political
influence for a reason he's not a dumbass like Like, he might be, he might be, I don't know.
Well, let me ask you this for a second.
Will the Democrats, like, rally around him for fighting against Trump now?
Is that, like, some people who are here? I don't know if the Democrats will.
I mean, look, we talked about this yesterday, right?
Seems like he wants to start a third party.
He mentioned that again today.
You know, I don't know if that's going to happen.
That's a pretty hard thing to do. But if anyone has the money and influence to do it, if you're going to pick
one person to has money and influence to put together a coalition to do it, it's probably
him. And so if he wants, if he really wants to start a political party and get a bunch
of his tech friend, tech billionaire friends together and get Larry Ellison to give him
a couple billion dollars and to get all these guys to like back him, he can easily probably find, I mean, dude, those guys would be able to put
together an excellent presidential candidate, you know, because Elon's not going to run. Elon
wasn't born here, right? And I'm talking about if Elon and all these guys came together to get a
presidential candidate or a handful of Senate candidates.
Like they could find really accomplished people who are really intelligent, who would do well in debates, who can probably speak well.
And, you know, they may sweep the floor with some some two party incumbents in certain states like you don't know. We don't. Political outcomes are very unpredictable.
So we'll see what Elon decides to do politically. But when it comes to the stock, should the stock
be down today? Yeah. The stock should be down today because it ran a lot in anticipation of
Elon's political power, which has now been relinquished either willingly or unwillingly.
But I do not see a way that he recoups it. It also ran a lot last month. It's up 50% plus.
Yeah, exactly. It's been running a lot, right? Last month had nothing to
do with the political stuff. It just ran, right, on the back of the RoboTaxi stuff. Yeah, exactly.
And now this is a flush out of a lot of that expectation and a lot of that premium. And
that's pretty basic market analysis, right? That just shouldn't blow anyone's mind. But,
you know, what does this mean going forward? I do think there's a large cohort of the shareholder base that still believes
they're going to win in humanoids and autonomy.
Those catalysts are potentially right around the corner.
We'll see how the June launch goes.
We'll see what updates look like with optimists later in the year,
but those are potentially around the corner and we could get to the juncture
where, you know, the stock comes down a lot because of this
maybe a knife's down through the 200 week after this selling i don't know you know we'll see what
happens but um if it does you can find you know stock goes a lot lower and autonomy and these
things work well who knows if they will you know we'll see what happens to stock but um yeah i do
think obviously this is short-term negative for the stock. I don't think that should surprise anyone.
And yeah, Elon is clearly planning something or trying to do something
if he's willing to just toss it all to the wind like this,
which he's clearly willing to do based on his tweets today.
My question is, Chris, you can go.
Yeah, I was going to say, you know know a third party may actually be one of the
best things even if it's not for the presidency for the house and the senate i mean if you think
about how thin the margins are for either side if you get even like a few seats here and there to
you know to be like the marginal you know decider in chief of who's actually going to get the policy
decision i mean that'd be that'd be a pretty right? I mean, if you think about it,
you need what three senators and you basically control Congress because the Republicans are
going to caucus with the Republican BS. The Democrats will caucus with their Democrat BS
and basically three, four senators, or, you know, maybe like 10 or 20 house reps. And basically now
you're, you're going to be kingmaker on what actually gets decided in public.
Exactly.
Exactly.
That would be the best outcome.
Yeah.
And I've actually had this debate with people before.
Like whether a two-party system is prohibitive or accommodative to a third party.
And I think for precisely the reason, Chris, that you just outlined, I actually think it can be accommodative to a third party. And I think for precisely the reason, Chris, that you just outlined,
I actually think it can be accommodative
for a third party because, again,
you get tremendously more power
with tremendously less popular influence.
So, you know, you can, like you said,
not even three senators.
If you could win two Senate seats
with a third party,
like that would change the entire backdrop
of American politics.
And, you know, from there, like you said, a couple of seats in the House and like things
can pedal quickly, especially if those are representatives or quality representatives,
you know, and I imagine, I mean, you think about the kind of media power that Elon has
owning X and XAI, you know, I imagine they would see the spotlight a lot.
It would become quickly popularized. in Democratic areas, they're basically leveraging their thin majority to get that $40,000 salt cap
in there. I mean, just think about it. There's only maybe like 10 or 20 of them. It's not like
a huge amount of people, but they're able to exert so much pressure to get this thing across.
They're like, no, we just are not going to go with it unless you act as to what we're saying.
So, I mean, look, if Elon
gets, like I said, 10, 20 people, bro, that's it. American politics would actually be a lot better.
And you're right. I agree with you, Stock Talk. I think that's one of the targets that Elon is
likely to focus on the next election cycle. I mean, I think he's actually being very serious
about a third party. And I'm
for it. I'm all for it. Hey, really quick. Lululemon just reported earnings. The revenue is
2.37 billion. Expected was 2.371 billion. EPS is 2.60. Expected 2.60 in line.
is 2.60 expected 2.60 in nine.
Stock talk.
I did want to ask you like,
we're kind of actually,
you know what?
I have my question saved Josh.
You've had your hand up for a while.
I appreciate you.
Hey,
yeah,
no problem.
I don't,
I don't have a strong view on all this other than that.
this does increase the,
uh, likelihood that there aren't electric vehicle and other alternative energy tax credits in whatever bill ends up getting passed and and approved by the president. sort of broader market impact, which is good for potential oil demand and pricing and sentiment,
and bad for alternative energy companies, whether it's electric vehicles or solar or wind,
which have been having sort of a rough ride this year already. So just getting it back to markets a little and trying to be a little more focused on it, on that aspect. That's my one thing to
add. And then the one other sort of a little further from markets, but still relevant to that,
there is, whenever you have like a presidential scandal or other sort of big political issue like
that, there's this concept that they actually made a movie about called Wag the Dog, where you basically try to deflect attention via military conflict or other sort of similar thing.
And so there is this Iran weapons enrichment issue going on also while all of this,
the budget stuff is happening in the U.S. and this fight is happening.
And there was some chance, there was probably less than 50%
that the US would go either directly
or have Israel go and bomb Iran's nuclear weapons
and nuclear enrichment facilities,
which there was just an IAEA,
I think it is report
that they have more highly enriched uranium
than they were supposed to.
And so I think the odds of that just increased a lot
because if you're the president
and you were just accused of visiting Epstein's Island,
that's a pretty hard thing to deflect from.
I think that's a bigger thing than maybe some of the other
mud that they were slinging at each other.
And I think that dramatically increases, unfortunately,
the odds of military conflict.
I don't know. I think we're making- true social post just came out from trump i don't mind elon turning against me but he should have done so months ago this is one of
the greatest bills ever presented to congress it's a record cut in expenses blah blah blah blah blah
make america great again no way he didn't acknowledge the epstein threat that's insane
that's dodging a bit that's crazy am I the only one to think that's weird
to respond to doing an update post and not mention the Epstein comment I think
that's wild no I don't think it I don't think from a PR perspective you can
just gonna say there yeah I think you're just gonna say he's lying anyway um
stock talk I want to ask you though about kind of like the perspective of
like when we we're talking about the leverage that that elon might have here a third party
they only need a couple votes whatever like that what about the leverage of elon's entire company
is reliant on like industries that are new that have regulation that can be slowed down you know
there's a lot of excitement about FSD coming this month
and SpaceX and all that stuff.
I mean, what does that do?
Will there start to be some leverage used there on the opposite way?
Like, how does that possibly change the FSD rollout, if anything?
Because it is pretty much all based on regulation anyway.
Yeah, I mean, that's why people bid the stock up when
you know elon and and trump won because the you know the the thinking was was that um
they would be accelerating full self-driving full self accelerating you know robotics humanoid
robotics um accelerating starlink and spacex which you know obviously robotics, humanoid robotics, accelerating Starlink and SpaceX,
which, you know, obviously have nothing to do with SpaceX, but I mean, have nothing to do with Tesla,
but are still Elon companies. And yeah, can the administration choose to intentionally
hamper his companies from here? I guess. Yeah. I guess that's a possibility after the Epstein comment.
Prior to that, I would have said there's no chance, but after the Epstein comment, maybe.
But at the end of the day, I do think that they will be cautious being heavy-handed with it,
because at the end of the day,on has political power now you know he might
be sacrificing a lot of his power over the current administration by doing this but he has political
power to the extent that he a dramatically shifted the odds for a major piece of legislation
to pass on betting markets by like 40 in an hour which is enough power as it is. And it's a pretty liquid
market. But more importantly than that, there's a lot of individual House and Senate races that
he can affect with his own capital. Not through a PAC. I mean, now he does have the America PAC,
which has quite a bit of funding, but he can affect House races with his own capital now.
So he can pick and choose winners at the correct oh yeah musk did just put out elon just put out a tweet in light
of the president's statement about cancellation of my government contracts spacex will begin
decommissioning its dragon spacecraft immediately with a screenshot of trump's truth
truth.
Okay.
Dude, that is
something that will be
presidentially stopped. I guarantee
it. He will not be able to allow
he will not be allowed to do
that because that is in
national security interest and
I guarantee you
that is not going to end well for him
saying something like that.
Yeah, that's he he is clearly being a little jumpy here. But yeah, I don't know. I mean,
look, I think Elon's being like I said, I said this yesterday, too, when I said I was going to
be willing to criticize him. People don't hear me criticize him a lot. But yesterday when I
criticized him, I said he was being jumpy. I think he's being a little jumpy
today as well. But look, at the end of the day, like I said earlier, the only way to do this is
slowly. It's how things get done in a democracy. You can do it gradually and hope over time you
make some difference when it comes to the government spending. But we just can't do it in
one bill as much as we want it to. Even if this bill gets killed, the pork that Elon wants
cut out will not be willingly cut out by the majority of Congress. Yeah. Like I said, maybe
you get 20 or 30 votes. That's not enough to do anything. And those 20 or 30 people put a ton of
political capital on the line as well, just to make that vote. You know, when you vote off party
lines, you sacrifice political capital. It's why the vast
majority of
politicians vote with party lines.
With rare exception.
And the reason for that is because
they want to retain political capital. They want to be able to
climb the ladder in the party, becoming
a more influential position in the party.
By the way, I find this
interesting. Sorry to interrupt you. Rocket Lab is up
7% right now. I was just going to say, there's some deal flow in that
Dragon Space.
I thought it was the other way
of saying, oh, SpaceX isn't here.
Who else can help us in space?
Exactly. Rocket Lab is the only alternative.
And ASDS got
a nice bid on that into the close as well and jumped
about 8% on the same principle.
ASDS is the only real perceived
alternative to Starlink.
And ASDS has nothing, by the way.
It's just mind-blowing.
But, I mean...
Nothing yet.
Nothing yet.
Yeah, that's true.
Nothing yet.
But even when they do have something, it's direct to cell phone.
It's not, like, internet replacement tech.
And it's scattered. We don't want to get here i'm just saying acs is up with rocket lab
because they're both viewed as competitors to elon musk company is the point i was making but
um well wait stop talk one last thing um on the other hand people are forgetting about project
kweeper i think that's what it's called from Amazon.
That will be mobile satellite.
Yeah, that's a proposed competitor as well.
I mean, the point is, is right now, no one's a competitor to Starlink as of today, right?
No one's a real competitor.
People have technologies that will propose to compete.
Like you mentioned, Kuiper and ASC Space Mobile, they both have technologies
that propose to compete.
But again, those aren't there yet.
So yeah, I mean,
I understand why the stocks are moving though.
You know,
same thing with Blue Origin too now.
I mean, they're starting to do rocket launches.
So my thing is,
are we missing out on Amazon?
Is that the anti-Elon play
that's unspoken about?
It's too big.
It won't make that much.
It won't move Neal too much.
That's why you're seeing the smaller pure play specular names like ASCS and Rock Lab catch a bid.
I think Amazon's just too big.
Yeah, it's just too big.
You also saw Verizon and AT&T catch a bid too.
They're just kind of like StockHawk said.
There's no pure competitor. So it's just like a basket. That's a good point, by the way, bid too. They're just kind of like StockHawk said, there's no pure competitor.
So there's just like a basket.
That's a good point, by the way, Sean.
You're right.
Broadcom did just report, by the way.
It's down about 2%, 3% in after hours.
I saw revenue with a small beat.
I haven't seen all the numbers yet, but we'll see on that one.
EPS, I'm seeing $1.58, which was a beat on expectations of $1.57.
Also, Trump, sorry, Elon responded to a tweet that said,
should President Trump be impeached and J.D. Vance take over?
And Elon said yes.
So we're still in the double down phase.
Quadruple down at this point.
The question is, would J. jd actually betray trump and be like
brutus and be like yes this is all confirmed stab because if you think he doesn't need to do that
all uh elon needs to do is get a few uh republican senators and congressmen to go along with a
impeachment because the democrats already want to impeach
Trump anyway. So if, if he can get a few of, uh, congressmen and, uh, senators to go along with it,
um, then, uh, then it's, then it's a done deal. I mean, if you think about it, J.D. Vance comes
from the Peter Thiel crew. I mean, remember what J.D. Vance was highly, highly critical of Trump going into this whole
thing, right?
So I think there's enough knives out there coming for Trump in the midterms.
And if the Democrats get control, I think we've got a serious problem coming for the
Trump administration, you know?
So we'll see.
It'll be very hard to flip.
You would have to have, what, seven?
You'd have to have straight up 10 senators probably right now based on the Senate split.
But I would say that that's far-fetched, honestly.
Even after a midterm, it would be very far-fetched.
You would have to have something very egregious for Trump to get impeached here.
I know we're probably just throwing out thoughts, but it was not going to happen.
It would be more likely that he would be removed through his cabinet than impeached through Congress.
It seems like they're going to walk through coals for that man really quick um coincidentally uh the seventh largest company
in the world just reported earnings source you already read out the numbers oh yeah yeah my bad
you're good uh broco we did read out but kevin i did want to come in stocks down at four percent
now i want to ask you in general i know you know you're interested in the poli-sci and just everything in general.
Your kind of take on this, I want to keep it on the stocks area of like,
what does this mean going forward?
Are we looking at gridlock here?
Are we back to talking about this debt over the next little bit?
When we were talking about the debt, I believe in 2021,
the market kind of just went sideways to down for a while.
So it's taking a lot of the energy out of it.
And obviously there's the obvious Elon Trump aspect of it.
But what are your thoughts?
Yeah, I think, look, I mean, it's a really good conversation.
And I would love, I'm going to be listening to Spaces all night, drinking and listening to what people's theories are.
But here's the thing.
It's going to be a headline mover for now.
There's nothing that's going to shift when it comes to this budget deal. Elon Musk is not going
to move the needle. The Senate is going to probably still just do its own thing and try to come in
line as much as they possibly can with the House in order to get it passed. I don't think that this
is going to throw any type of monkey wrench into that plan, even though this is going to be a headline move where everybody's going to be focusing on it.
We also have to remember that Elon spent a boatload of money in Wisconsin, a boatload, to try to turn that judge election, and it didn't work out for him.
So you're kind of in like a battleground state.
You spend a bunch of money in an off cycle and you're still not able to capture a key position.
I think there's also going to be others in battleground states that are going to say,
okay, what do I do? Do I go with Elon or do I go with the, I'll even call it the established
Republican base right now. And I don't think there's any, I'll even call it the establishment, the established Republican base right now.
And I don't think there's any, I don't think there's any, anybody in any like contentious area that's going to try to flip and go on the Elon side.
You know, and look, I could care less about it.
This is actually more entertaining.
But I just say if you game theory this whole thing out, it's going to capture a lot of headlines, but I think they're still going to have to move forward with this.
You can't get too close to that deadline as well, because that would just be catastrophic for
midterms, especially on the Republican side. So I know this is capturing a lot of people's
attention, but I don't think that you're going to see anything that majorly shifts because of this.
I don't think that you're going to see anything that majorly shifts because of this.
Elon, and then nothing against, look, Elon's a very smart guy, right?
Good things about Elon, bad things about Elon, good things about Trump, bad things about Trump.
I love this for them because the writing has been on the wall.
I mean, nobody's gotten into President Trump's orbit and lasted for a very long time in a manner that that, you know, Elon kind of was helping him out.
So this is just something that happens. But, you know, he's also alienated.
Elon alienated also the liberal side of the equation.
So you kind of go back and look at any type of battleground, purple state.
What do you do? I think you stay close to your party and your party any type of battleground, purple state. What do you do?
I think you stay close to your party and your party leader.
The party leader is President Trump.
It's not Ilama.
So I think everything kind of just continues to move forward.
And I don't think, hey, look, it's going to have an impact on Tesla.
Yes, you're going to see the move to the downside.
Look, the 250 puts were printing off the rail.
Somebody probably already brought this up.
250 puts pretty much going out to the end of July, printing off the charts. So see what happens to the price action at 250. Could it go down more? It could. But understand this, that Tesla, out of all of the MAG-7 names, all the major companies in the S&P 500, Tesla has probably the lowest beta out of all of them, meaning that Tesla trades on its own.
We've been at all-time highs before and Tesla be basing out and trying to consolidate before
trying to break higher. Tesla can trade and disconnect from the S&P 500. Does it make it
harder to make new all-time highs? Yes, obviously because of math, but it's not outside of the norm
for Tesla to do its own thing and the market really kind of trucking along.
It's going to take a little bit of a readjustment, but I wouldn't get too concerned about it.
It's not like a massive disconnect of NVIDIA or a massive disconnect with even an Apple.
Apple has done that as well.
Apple has disconnected.
Let's say over the last year, year and a half, Apple's kind of just done its own thing.
The S&P 500 continues
to move forward. I think that's how you have to look at this. Because Tesla's down, doesn't mean
the market automatically has to be down. I mean, think about it. This company is down, what, 14%
today? I don't even know what the hell it closed. Yeah, down 14% today. We closed the S&P 500 only down, what, 0.4%, a half a percent. That's not bad. That is not bad
at all. Tesla can trade on its own. It's going to be tough, but I don't think everything's lost
because of an Elon Trump spat. I think you continue to move forward. Yeah, you're going to
have some momentum names. I know you guys kind of talked about them. Real quick trades, you can flip them by all means. But look at long term. Oh, is this going to impact SpaceX? I mean, SpaceX is in there enough where it's going to be very hard to try to pull back SpaceX's influence on the US space race, if you will, right? Unless the country wants to go back to really funding NASA,
which I think they probably should do a little bit more, or they try to find another supplier,
but any other provider that's out there, it doesn't even have close to the scale
that Tesla does. So what do you want to do? Stop development? You want to slow down your progress
because of a spat between two grown men, two grown billionaires? No, that's not going to be the case.
So even like the risk of SpaceX,
I feel like it's going to be very low risk.
Robotaxi, that could be something.
I would say that'd be petty
if you kind of really slow down the whole autonomous driving regulation,
easing of those regulations because of this.
Could that happen?
Maybe, but...
Or you mandate LIDAR.
That's exactly what I was going to say.
That'd be jokes.
I mean...
Not a good way.
It is what it is.
I just look at it and say,
hey, it's not like we're talking about a whole sector here.
We're talking about one company.
And we have seen companies, and I'm not saying this is the end of Tesla.
Honestly, like full disclosure, I literally bought calls like near the lows today because I'm taking lottos.
And I know going into it, I'm probably going to lose on them.
But once we get that 250 level, I saw a lot of movement there.
So could this be the end?
I don't think so.
I think this is just going to be a little bit of a blip on the radar.
But companies come and go as far as their leadership and their influence on the S&P 500.
And I think people forget about that, especially over the last 10 years, 15 years, where it's been just tech.
Like tech's got to run everything.
Tech's got to do this.
Tech's got to do that.
Dude, in the early 90s and mid 90s, the number one sector that was out there was energy. where it's been just tech, like tech's got to run everything, tech's got to do this, tech's got to do that.
Dude, in the early 90s and mid 90s, the number one sector that was out there was energy, right?
The Exxon Mobils and the Chevrons of the world were running the S&P 500.
Before that, you could call telecoms back in the day, but telecoms are a little bit boring.
But you go through all of these cycles, you have rail and freight, we're major influencers of indexes, right? We go through cycles. So just because a company has a major influence now doesn't mean that 10 years, 15 years from now, it has a less of an influence.
And I think that's how you have to look at these things and continue to move forward.
Broader equity market is going to rise over time. So I wouldn't freak out.
I find this more entertaining.
Even in real time, even in real time, right? Like if you've got the index that just doesn't
really go anywhere and then Tesla falls, its impact gets lessened over that time. So even
in real time, that's what happens. Yep. As long as you don't have total net flows coming out
and never coming back in, we're going to be fine
asset dollars will find places to work as we have a portfolio manager up here that knows that very
well so it's a cycle thing i wouldn't freak out like i don't know what's going to happen tesla
it's an unfortunate situation especially given like the timing of it. I don't think that the market really was pricing in that tax credits for EVs were going to be,
were going to stay in the first place.
I kind of feel like that.
I don't know why Elon kind of is jumping on that bandwagon, right?
I understand it's going to have an impact on this, on the performance of Tesla,
but I don't know, maybe one of you guys could correct me if I'm wrong,
but I've been kind of pricing in that EV credits were going away.
The market was actually pricing that in for Tesla for a very long time.
And they were really kind of looking forward to humanoid robots and robotaxi.
So to the Elon front, it's like, I don't know why you're even dying on this hill.
He took the bait from Trump. Unfortunately, he took the bait.
the bait from trump unfortunately he took the bait it pissed him off he took the bait and it's kind
It pissed him off. He took the bait.
of something that like he started something that was kind of trivial when it comes to the equity
of tesla but he's got other businesses too so it is the trump tariffs will cause a recession the
second half of the year elon must tweet just out he's not done.
So be fun.
And I don't know, you might wanna just, I don't know.
Maybe there's trades you wanna kind of stay away from, but there's other things that are on the radar
that it's gonna have a bigger impact
than this dispute in my opinion, like this jobs report.
And that's the thing, the S&P 500, yeah,
we did see this crack, but Elon and Tesla were not the the thing. The S&P 500, yeah, we did see this crack,
but Elon and Tesla were not the only reasons
why the S&P 500 pulled back, right?
Think about it.
We had compression for the last, what, three days,
four days, maybe last week
when it comes to the equity market.
If you're looking at the S&P 500,
book depth for the most part of liquidity is looking okay.
But you have ADP report that kind of shocked people, not from an equity standpoint, but we're keeping our eye out on it.
And you have a major report that's coming out tomorrow.
So you have compression in the markets.
You have a trigger of this whole spat within Tesla, Elon, that got you below this level.
Because basically we just broke this triangle pattern
on the intraday.
If you look at the 15, it was like textbook.
And it's like, boom, we break that triangle.
It's like, you also have a potential risk event tomorrow
that could show some stagflationary fears in this market.
So I feel like everything just kind of aligned
more than just blaming it on Tesla.
I think there's other things to kind of be focusing on.
Do you price in any risk that administration, investors, et cetera,
start to put pressure on the board to have him replaced
oh dude i don't know i know there's like a rumor what is that a couple of months ago stock talk
where it's like a month ago that they were going to replace them but
or they were looking at a replacement could that be the case maybe i. I don't know. I'm making this up. I would say probably 50% of the valuation of Tesla is Elon's brand.
So the board also has to think. Yeah.
Dude, I wouldn't even, I would sell every share I've owned since 2015 if Elon were not involved with the company.
Well, hold on. The reason why I'm saying that
I think there's a lot of a lot of shareholders that feel that way. Yeah the reason why I'm saying that is because if you cut the company in half I'm pretty sure
the asset value that it has on its books could be chopped up for half of the half the company's
valuations in my opinion right and the IP that's really what I'm why I'm saying like the other half
of that's Elon, but yeah, maybe
it's more. So as a board member, do you want to be that person that says, oh yeah, let's
do that and then completely cut your stock at least in half, if not more?
That's a dangerous thing.
It will. The stock more than anything.
I do just want to quickly, I want to quickly say we do have Steve Quirk joining us here,
the chief brokerage officer at Robinhood.
I don't see him up. I see him in the crowd. He should be joining us any second, though, but it should be a good conversation we have coming up here.
It's Stock Talk. You can continue there.
I forgot what I was saying. Oh, yeah.
Look, the Tesla stock in the last five years, and I owned it in the five years prior to that, too.
But the last five years, it has been more of a call option on Elon
Musk than it has traded as a traditional equity. You know, the stock makes big moves to the upside
when things are going well for Elon and makes big moves to the downside when he's having headwinds,
whether or not it's relevant to Tesla itself or not, right. The headwind doesn't have to be relevant to Tesla.
It, you know, it's the same way, like when there's like days where SpaceX has a big success and Tesla stock gets bid on it and people like are scratching their heads and they're like,
Tesla has no financial relationship with SpaceX. Yeah. It's because it functions as a highly
liquid call option on Elon Musk. So yeah, the stock should have been down today.
Like I wasn't surprised at all.
I saw people who were like,
you know, it shouldn't be down 15, 16%.
Wasn't surprising to me at all
that it was down that much.
You know, because again...
Did you guys already talk about this?
I'm sorry.
Did you guys already talk about
the decommissioning thing?
I just saw that headline for SpaceX.
Did you guys bring that up? Yeah. okay sorry i must i must have just got up
rocket lab was rocketing gotcha okay we got that gavs yes yeah we got steve up here roll us into
this i'm super excited to have steve on and steve i apologize we did not know how crazy this day was
going to get on social media when we scheduled this a couple weeks ago. But I would love to bring
you into the mix and get your thoughts here. We are seeing massive, massive moves in the market
being caused by social media and politics and other things like that. So before I roll into
maybe some of the more in-depth items, just as a quick introduction, Steve Quirk, Chief Brokerage
Officer at Robinhood. For those who have seen the many markets that they're formulating,
he is the man and the legend behind all those.
So, Steve, how's everything going by you and exciting times here on Spaces?
Very exciting time.
It's been kind of an interesting day.
I will tell you, I haven't really been able to see a lot of it.
I'm in New York doing – I was doing a Piper Sandler conference
and some media following in some
meetings. So, you know, I just kind of like was episodically looking at the market, but yeah,
plenty of movement, that's for sure. Well, let's kick it off talking Tesla,
because Tesla is one of the, there was a report that came out from Robinhood recently that tech
and AI names like Tesla, NVIDIA, Palantir, Amazon, and Apple are the most popular
among Robinhood customers.
And when those tariffs were first put into place, that your customers use ETFs more than
average to increase market exposure.
So Tesla, huge move today.
It's down 14.5% in regular trading, down another 2.19% in after hours.
When you get these massive days, what does that look like on the back end
for y'all at Robinhood? What date are you looking at? What's interesting to you here?
Well, you rattled off probably that some of the stocks that sit in our top 10 almost on a daily
basis. Customers kind of go back and forth in these stocks. I will tell you, you brought up the data on
what had happened as the tariffs were, most of the news on the tariffs were unfolding.
Customers, retail customers kind of stepped in, like we saw it in a couple different ways. Number
one, they have the deposit months. We had the two of the biggest deposit months in our history
in March and April. And they just stepped in and bought a lot of, a lot of these names were down,
there were names down 30, 40, 50% based on the tariff news. And these are some of the most
popularly traded stocks at Robinhood. And we saw a pretty nice bounce as a result of that. And then
they started unloading some, you know, as a matter of fact, I think NVIDIA was one of the most
popularly sold in the last short period of time. So I think there's a lot of more back and forth,
but people, you know, people have definitely have an affinity for Tesla and some of the other ones.
I do have a question for you.
This is a little bit out of the traditional markets, but it's on the prediction markets.
I've traded some of your prediction markets.
You have some fun ones, right?
Sports, presidential elections, items like that.
When you see data and things like this happening, like with everything going on with Elon, like
I just saw, you know, Pi Market as an example, put up like six new markets about like, how many tweets is Elon going to do today? You know,
will things get released about Trump? Um, I'm curious if you see Robinhood going in a similar
direction there with like these unique prediction markets being listed on the platform. So where
people have their trading and they're investing, they also have some of these other items.
They also have some of these other items.
You know, so far we've limited it to election, a bunch of economic figures, price of gas, and some sports.
I think our primary, like think of it in the same capacity that you would think about what securities you can trade on Robinhood.
There are many, many OTC securities that are caveat emptor, you know, trade $10 a day.
We're not going there. You know, we want to make sure that whatever we provide access to
is highly liquid and that there's enough interest in it to make it interesting enough to provide.
Because, you know, we have scale. We have 26 million customers that are getting access to this. So
we want to make sure there's no Hotel California contracts. If you know what I mean,
you can check in, but you can't get out. Yes, yes, yes. Great points. Evan,
Stock Talk, I want to bring you guys into it before I ask a few more. Evan,
what's on your mind here when you look at everything going on with this market as well as Robinhood?
Well, so I was seeing a lot of the headlines coming out of your conference appearance this morning.
There was ones about like Robinhood customers strongly buying the dip. I believe that was around April.
I thought the one around the credit card was pretty interesting and seemed to get a lot of people talking about that.
So I was curious if we could talk more. Robinhood now has more than 3 million people on the wait list was the headline that was
going around there.
I know in general recently it was kind of talked about the role.
And I know you're the chief brokerage officer, so it's a little bit kind of on the sideways
of it.
But I'm curious on how that's going.
The credit card's been going really well.
I mean, if we look at the if we look
at the feedback on a continual basis around it and just you know talk to a lot of the customers
who are using it watch their behaviors they love it um and you know with the with the credit card
and you probably heard this from vlad and jason our cfo and others uh deepak who rolled it out
um you know being methodical about that and making sure that we do it in a prudent manner is pretty important from a credit card standpoint.
But I would say overall, the enthusiasm around it is off the charts.
I mean, you can't beat it 3% on everything.
It's pretty magical, and the experience is cool.
Yeah, Sam.
Hey, great to be here, Steve.
Appreciate you being on here.
I mean, probably less of a question and more of just like a comment
of what I've been seeing as far as the revenues for crypto options
and trading has really been expanding.
You know, obviously the market wasn't doing that last quarter,
but we look at today and clearly they are happy about it.
I mean, I guess you can't really disclose anything,
but I guess the comment was that there has been a lot of trading
with crypto near all-time highs, a lot of heightened options trading lately,
especially with the stock market near all-time highs bouncing from the below.
Kind of gets a little bit excited for the earnings that are coming up in a couple of months with Robinhood.
Just seeing how much activity there is in the stock market, especially with the retail basically buying the dip in April, gets a little bit excited with that.
And honestly, I work in a software background, so I'm very cognizant about like software utility and flexibility and seeing things being resolved especially customer support it's nice to see that Robin Hood I
haven't personally ran into any UI issues or anything so that looks really
good but even on a brokerage standpoint maybe like when things get a little bit
crazy in the stock market the application might slow down a little
bit but as far as that goes like I haven't really seen anything bad on my
side are there any I would say from a brokerage standpoint,
are there any improvements you're planning on releasing maybe in the upcoming few weeks?
Maybe you're not on the sports betting side,
but like some new features might be releasing at sports betting.
Because there's one thing that I was actually looking at,
like having the scores of like certain games and stuff on there.
And I'm not sure if you could comment about that, but I'm just curious.
I would say, well, first of all,
like I'm getting back to the beginning of your statement.
Like we released some metrics this morning,
our May metrics, our preview of our May metrics
and our equity trading sequentially,
so month over month was up 10% to a record.
Option trading was up 5% to a record.
Margin balances were 9 billion, which is a record. And the cash tweet balances were 30 billion, which is a record. Option trading was up 5% to a record. Margin balances were $9 billion, which is a record.
And the cash tweet balances were $30 billion, which is a record. So the customers are very
engaged and active. Retail investors, I've been making this argument with some media in New York.
I would argue this is the second time that retail has bailed out the market in the last five years.
You know, during COVID, they came to the rescue with the institutions pounding all the, you know, cruise lines, hotel, airlines, everything else.
And this time, you know, I mean, they had to step in in a different way.
And, of course, you know, I'm not saying that they're the ones that turn the market around, but they certainly put a stop on it. Retail has now become, as you guys talk
about, a much bigger part of the equation, which is awesome. And they have the conviction. These
are young people who are going to have a long investing career. So they have the conviction
to step in, which is pretty cool. So I think those things have me so optimistic about the future for, you know, this generation of investors.
As far as what we're going to do to continue to iterate for them, you know, on the EC front, I think the sky's the limit.
There's so much there.
And sports is one component of it.
But I would say there's so many other ways that we can allow people to be a little more precise in their
investment thesis. The election, great example, you know, hey, listen, the election moved a lot
of sectors, a lot of individual names. If I already had a portfolio and I said, look,
I don't want to pick apart my portfolio based on the election. I just want to, you know,
either create a hedge on the election or benefit from it.
Gave you a nice avenue to do it.
And even if you didn't do anything on the election, we had massive numbers, 800,000 accounts open, half a billion contracts traded.
But we had even more people just looking at it.
The market moving news happened two hours before the major news networks were announcing swing states.
Yeah, really interesting pieces there.
Great questions from Sam.
I love that we're able to just have these direct conversations.
So I appreciate you coming on here and chatting with us.
Stock talk, I'll check in with you for a second, see if you had any thoughts or anything that you wanted to go over talk about here if not i do have a couple other items i wanted to touch on
i do too yeah i did think uh the presentation you guys had this morning was impressive you know um
i'm a robinhood shareholder i think it's a you know great company and you guys have been executing
well recently you know i'm wondering if you know one one thing i've heard ever since the launch of
robin hood's uh your guys's first professional trading tools is that there's still a lot of
features that people are looking for you know better watch list features namely at least for
me especially um and other features do you think that there's going to be um you know more of a
concerted effort to develop those things?
And I feel like you guys have the team to do it, certainly, based on those recent releases.
Well, we're already doing it.
So we kind of have this balance of delivering on things that are innovative, the prediction markets, 24-5, new asset classes,
with the things that are kind of necessary, like joint accounts, tax lots,
some of the things that really are important from a customer standpoint.
And I think, you know, over time you're going to watch us, and we'll do it in a relatively quick manner.
We have pretty good product velocity.
Fill the gaps with account types, asset classes, capabilities.
You know, we hear loud and clear.
One thing we are is very connected to our customers,
and many of you are our customers,
in terms of what's most important to them
and how quickly we can deliver that
and what the prioritization of that should be.
I'm kind of curious.
You have another question?
Okay.
I'm kind of curious on the uptake of some of these like new areas like
futures and even Robinhood legend and strategies,
the managed product and just kind of curious any insights there on how
people are starting to use them.
If there's one kind of area of acceleration or something like that,
that you're,
you've been excited about and there's kind of newer markets that you guys
have kind of moved into.
Sure.
I'll start with the last one first.
So strategies were,
it's pretty new rollout.
Surpassed 75,000 accounts in just around two months,
about $250 million in strategies, which is our advised
portfolio. I call it light touch advisory. On the futures and index options front,
you know, the adoption has been pretty robust. I made this point at a conference today.
I think we rolled out futures when I was at TD Ameritrade in about
2010 or 11. And it took us about four or five years to get to the volumes that we're doing today
in under six months. So they've been very well received. Now, I will tell you that
this has been a very good market to roll out a product like futures, which trades around the clock. And, you know, look, a lot of this market moving news is happening when the
market isn't traditional market is not open. So that helps. As far as index options, you know,
that's been, I mean, from our more active, engaged investors and traders, that's been the number one
request for a very long time. Because it's a very long time because it's a product that
they utilize when trying to get deep market exposure. Do we have Ahmed on stage?
I see him in the craft. I did send him an invite. Sometimes X doesn't always show when they're out,
but if he wants to come up.
Okay.
Yeah, I'll see if I can get him up, but no worries.
Stocks, did you have another question there for Evan?
No, Evan already touched on the credit card thing,
but yeah, that was going to be my first question,
but I thought that was really impressive as well.
I think the demand for that product has been awesome.
I mean, it's honestly just like flat out,
and I'm not even propping you up just because you're here, but it is flat out one of the best credit card offerings on the market.
We've heard that loud and clear from a lot of people, the experience in general. And look,
I have one, I use it all the time. It's pretty cool. The one other thing we didn't really talk
about too much, but I think is very interesting is
some of the behaviors that we've seen from customers and one of the ones that
that we've been highlighting is when when markets get volatile and I mean
extremely volatile like 60 VIX which we don't see that often and we see moves
like we saw in the last month. Customers, they move away from
individual names and they move toward broad-based ETFs. Thesis is they have more conviction in
the idea that the quote-unquote, I'm using air quotes, market will bounce than they do on an
individual name. So it's almost like they're diversifying
their conviction. Because, you know, if something happens to an individual stock, it might not,
it might not come back. But if something happens to an individual stock, and I have the SPY or QQQ,
if the broad-based market rebounds, it's going to obviously rebound as well.
And so like if you look at the notional volume of our trading, it's like 80% individual names, 20% broad-based ETFs.
During this bout of the tariff volatility, we went to like 60-40, 60% individual names, 40% ETFs.
And now we're back to 20, which is, it's kind of fascinating.
And by the way, this is not unique to Robinhood.
It's kind of a market phenomenon as well.
So that's just something that I think is pretty interesting from just an overall retail trading mentality standpoint. I've seen markets over the last couple months, and I'm just curious on how they react. I don't know how granular the data gets on age and what you guys see on the back end,
but I'm curious how the younger cohort of people on the platform
might be acting a little bit differently to the older ones.
I'm just curious how they're going around this time.
A lot of times you go in and ask, how would you react if your favorite stock
or your entire portfolio was down 10%, 20%? You fill in know, you fill in an answer. But sometimes in markets, you actually
get to find it out. So they actually reacted. Yeah, you actually hit the nail on the head.
Like, understand, like, it's one thing to say, here's how I would react. You know, when I get,
I'll use a Tysonism, you know, when I get punched in the face, it's another thing to see what
happens when you get punched in the face, right?
Your reaction might be different than what it would be.
One thing I would say is, like, if you look at our customers, like 80-some percent of them that were around during the meme stock and during COVID are still with us.
And so, although this is very different than either of those, I would argue they have some scar tissue.
Like, they understand that markets can move in an irrational manner for a period of time.
And, you know, having had experience with it, I think it's really valuable.
Because to your point, if it's your first time, this is new to you.
And it's, you know if it's your first time um this is new to you and it's you know
probably a poor analogy but like first time you watch a horror movie you're scared out of
out of your mind you know the 14th time you watch a horror movie you're like all right i got it i
know what's going to happen here um and it makes it a little easier to uh navigate
i could uh jump back in here for a second if that's okay uh first off by the way for everyone
that's in here if you haven't already give steve a follow let's pump up the them followers over 5k
he does a lot of great media appearances shares a lot of items uh you'll often see myself and evan
at the different robin hood gold events i got to interview steve at the last one as well that was
posted up to youtube so make sure you're checking out some of these different items. One thing I wanted to talk
about was just acquisitions, right? Closed acquisitions of trade, PMR, right? You've
expanded into Canada. What's the future plans that you could share with us here?
I think the future plans I'd say is like, we i mean those are both geographical acquisitions but
they're also capability-based acquisitions so like for example bitstamp which we shared some more
detail on and closed in the last couple days um it gives us an ability to um to interact with
institutional customers which you know our crypto offering has been strictly retail.
And as a result of that, it gave us capabilities,
you know, oldest exchange, oldest crypto exchange,
I think that exists with a lot of institutional capabilities.
It's already got 5,000 large institutional customers
and half a million retail customers.
It also provides us with 50 licenses all across Europe. And, you know, it's not a small feat to get those licenses. So
that's really helpful for us. And as, you know, we get more clarity on regulation on what's
permissible in the U.S., a lot of those capabilities, you know,
we can bring over here and utilize for U.S. customers as well. Same thing on the WonderFi
front, which, you know, we announced that about a month ago, probably even less, a couple weeks ago.
That's just a Canadian entity, which gives us similar capabilities. And then on the trade PMR front, we've largely competed on the self-directed side.
Robinhood has.
And we haven't really dipped our toe in the water from a wealth management side.
But if you look at the TAM on the wealth management side, it's three times what it is, two and a half at least on the self-directed side.
So a lot of our customers have said, hey, look, you know, I'm very confident in my ability to manage a portfolio that's this size.
But once it gets to a size that's a multiple of that, you know, I would like some help from an advised
standpoint. Or, you know, I'm 20 some years old, and suddenly I'm a 35 year old, and I've got a
couple kids and a house. And, you know, I just don't have the wherewithal to do this all on my
own. So I'd like some help. Yeah, there has been some pretty cool expansion that's moved into that
area. I like a lot of the features that have continued to come out, little things that, honestly, you really do listen to the feedback,
because there's little pieces that I've just asked for here and there that I've continued to see come into the app and the platform.
Emp, do you want to jump in for a second, talk about the active trader side of things?
It's actually kind of hit on what I was interested in.
I'm very interested in Legend.
I love the Canvas idea there where you kind of create your own areas on the chart.
I'm wondering how the further development goes on that.
I was excited to get that back in November, I think, when it launched.
What's the projection looking that for maybe some updates
to that where where's where's legend that now and kind of where's it going well um we have a couple
teams working on that continuously and base it's based on a lot of the feedback from from you and
others um on what you want to see next first thing we had to do is get every asset class on there
which we've done now you got crypto and other things on there then it's the capabilities you know expanded
expanding on the charting capabilities and even on widgets think news widgets you know quote widgets
um and and we just have a long runway there which is being prioritized by the feedback that we get. You know, we love to listen to the customers and they're very, very eager to share with
us what the next most important thing they need to see on Legend is.
But the pickup on it and the adoption and just the engagement and usage has been fantastic.
That was part two of my question was going to be, will we get to see some outside
features, API type of stuff where maybe on a day like today, where you have news headline after
news headline that's scrolling down the left side of my legend screen? I think we're going to do
better. I think you're kind of leading me into one of the other things that is probably worth talking about, Cortex, which, you know, will, you know, to your point, customers get hit with a lot of movement and a lot of headlines on individual equities or the market in general.
It's hard for them to dig through and figure out what's really moving the market or an individual security.
Like you can go four sources and you're going to get four different answers sometimes. And so, you know, one of the
first things we're going to do with Cortex, and we're already, you know, at a pretty good place
with it, is do that for you. So use AI to basically look at every single source of information.
Most of, a lot of the bigger sources have their traditional feed,
and then they'll have breaking feeds, which are, you know, more timely news. And, you know,
it's able to basically look through both of those and determine, you know, which is, which is the
likely catalyst for something moving, and then give you more. Yeah. The deeper you want to dig,
the deeper it'll go. And then the next iteration of that will be, hey, thanks for letting me know
why something moved or what the opportunity is now, what should I do with it? Right. And how,
how can you help me decipher what would be the best way to capitalize on it or to,
way to capitalize on it or to protect myself if need be.
you know, protect myself if need be.
You've got your crystal ball out today, Steve, because that was my third question or my third
follow-up would have been on the AI. You hit exactly where I was going. So no further questions
from me, Gav, I'll throw it back over to you. That was fantastic, Steve. I appreciate your time.
It's like freeing your mind.
You did. We were walking down the same path there.
We were walking down the same path there.
I saw you guys put out another APY bonus today.
I'm just curious, you know, what's the strategy as you continue to go throughout the years?
I think you're driving more and more people to put their cash in here.
Now there's banking, right?
Other pieces together with it.
Obviously, you're on the brokerage side.
But when you look at the full picture, where does that continue to expand out to later this year and next year?
You know, I think, so the offers have been really successful, like our match program and what we do
from a retirement standpoint. And what we try to do is marry those to things that we roll out.
those to things that we roll out because so you have really we have done a lot in terms of
enhancing the offering and providing more value and more features, more asset classes.
But sometimes that's not always that's not always visible to potential customers or even existing
customers of other brokerage firms. And so you have to give them a reason to take a look at you. And when they do, you know, and they
see everything that you're doing and there's an enticing offer, it's really powerful. And it
attracts a lot of customers, either new or existing customers from other brokerage firms.
existing customers from other brokerage firms and it pays off.
So we do those episodically along with the launches of some of the things that
we're rolling out.
Makes sense to me.
I know we just have another minute or two.
I see Amit trying to come in again.
I think he's trying to come up a couple of times.
If we do get him up,
Evan,
just let me know.
Looks like he's up here now.
We've got him.
I just got him on stage.
What's up, Amit? What's up, Steve? just let me know. Looks like he's up here now. We've got him. I just got him on stage. What's up, Emmett?
What's up, Steve?
How you doing?
How are you?
I'm doing very well.
I just, I've been busy all day, but I saw you guys were live and I was like, no, I need
to listen to Mr. Steve Quirk talk about profit here.
So yeah, I just want to congratulate you guys on all your success.
I guess if I got time for one question, you announced today 3 million people on the credit card wait list.
Yeah.
I guess the question here is what's the broad strategy for the credit card,
and do you think it could be one of the real big businesses at Robinhood?
I actually do, yes.
And I kind of mentioned it earlier before you joined.
Like the role, you know, we do have 3 million on the wait list.
We've been somewhat methodical about the way we roll it out. You have to be kind of, you know, you have to measure, you know, behaviors and make sure that we're doing it in a manner that's, you know,
going to be beneficial for us and the customers. But I do think it could, it has, it has the
capacity to be really, really a great catalyst for people to do more of everything, more of all
their financial transactions and
everything they do from a banking standpoint and investing standpoint on Robinhood, which is,
as you know, because you've talked to Vlad quite a bit, that's his vision. Every financial
transaction that you do should be in Robinhood. And, you know, a lot of people don't want four
apps when they're managing their finances.
So having it all in one place and having the experience be consummate with what it is from an investing or even on the credit card side, it's a win-win.
I have to say, on the credit card, I know I'm stupid, but that 1,000-point mystery box that you guys added in i get like excited to spend money now i will say much as crazy as it sounds i have actively
and consciously spent more money on that card because of that promotion and i don't even know
if it's not good for me it's just i want to do it yeah so there you go that's the little things
awesome well listen i appreciate you guys having me on i gotta hop um but thank you very I want to do it. Yeah. So there you go. That's cool. It's the little things. Awesome.
Well, listen, I appreciate you guys having me on.
I got to hop.
But thank you very much for the opportunity to chat with you guys. Thank you so much, Steve.
Appreciate you coming on.
Looking forward to more conversations together.
Definitely.
Take care.
Perfect.
You take care as well.
Amit, don't go anywhere.
We got you in here.
We got to hear your thoughts on today's market man dude i so i mean it's it has been a pretty wild day unfortunately
i was not able to do my market close dream what a day to miss the clothes but um yeah it's i think
i might still go live at like 9 00 p.m eastern tonight but it's just i'm at an event right now
it's been really busy i tuned in for like two minutes when I saw Steve was here.
But then I just have to go because something pulled me away.
But I think I have like five minutes right now.
I mean, this is insanity.
I cannot believe it's happening.
I was with a couple people when I saw the tweet about the Epstein file.
I was like, oh, we went there.
Like, we actually went there.
So I don't know.
I'm still gathering my thoughts.
My biggest concern right here is not even about Tesla stock, but the entire market is kind of feeling a
sentiment shift if Trump goes nuclear back at Elon and starts doing kind of policies that may be
anti-growth, you know, policies that obviously would affect SpaceX, Tesla, et cetera.
I don't know. It's a little scary if this is the black swan event, which I really don't think it
is. But if it is, then it would be just crazy to witness.
And I think this is one of the most interesting times in American politics, because when you have a bromance like this that gets fractured to this extent with Elon dropping the nuke,
then obviously there's going to be some ripple effects.
And I kind of think it's deeper than the bill.
I mean, I really do believe when Elon says, hey, this bill is crazy and he's going this
hard, but for him to go this hard with the tweets he's putting out saying he should be
impeached, maybe it's deeper than the bill. And I guess we'll, we'll find out over the coming months.
Where are you sitting? Um, so a lot of stuff got cooked today. Um, Palantir was one of them,
uh, took an eight and a half percent of haircut there. Not really sure, uh, if that was warranted.
Um, obviously Tesla at 15 and a half percent, um, you posted and you were like, well, how
do people, someone was like, well, how do you play this now?
And you commented, you're like, well, short Tesla, you know, maybe if you got it at 350,
but now it's a lot more complex than that.
Yeah.
I mean, uh, the short Tesla trade is, I mean, it, it kind of feels obvious, right?
Even at these levels.
Cause it's like, all right, well, if Trump's going to go, Hey, I don't care about EVs anymore.
And I don't care about self-driving, uh, because most of his base doesn't care about EVs or self-driving,
then he could immediately redirect the administration and the organizations in the
administration to just say, we're not going to focus on this. And that would obviously be bad
for Tesla. But I also think there's a big cult around Tesla. People have been waiting to buy
this dip. And if this dip gets anywhere near that 220-215 level, which was the low in April, I think people, like myself, I would buy that dip, you know, because I really didn't buy
it back then. And that doesn't mean it can't go lower, but I don't know if that means it's the
best short. The thing that's interesting here, and there's a guy named Rango, who I'm friends
with, and he commented on under my post, like, I think 10 minutes ago, he's a former Tesla employee,
he's not there anymore. And he said, the only reason Elon would be doing this,
this is his take, not mine,
but I do think there's some logic here.
I think he worked at Tesla for like the past five years.
He said, Elon tends to do this stuff
if something's not going right in the company.
And we saw this before the Twitter acquisition, right?
He crashed out, made a big deal, yada, yada.
And that's because he had to end up paying
50 or $45 billion for the company.
And so his thesis is, hey, maybe this robo-taxi launch is going to be a dud. Maybe there's some
real issues happening. Maybe they're not going to launch on June 12th, or even if they do,
it's not going to be a good launch. And that's why he's causing all this hoopla in a different
domain to kind of distract from that. As a pound-tier shareholder, I think I'm a little
bit of a winner. I know the stock went down 8% today, but at least people aren't talking about
the New York Times article. They're talking about something else.
But I don't know.
I feel like there's a deeper part to this whole story,
and we're going to find out over the coming weeks.
I enjoyed the Alex Karp interviews.
Well, I only heard the CNBC one, but I did enjoy it.
And you know what?
I was sitting up here.
I was saying, hey, does this affect the rollout of this robo-taxi? Is it going to get blocked and slow down because of the regulatory thing? Hey, I guess maybe that's the point. It's out of my hands.
the finance media. We've got a lot to analyze. And the other thing I think is really interesting
is like someone like David Sachs, right? Big Trump supporter, I would say way more loyal to Elon than
Trump, but who knows? I guess we'll find out. But that's kind of the question, right? If you,
if you love Elon and Trump, now you've got to pick sides, like you've got to pick a side.
There's no way you can stay in the, and you can, you can stay in the middle if you want,
but most people are going to, like JD Vance is not going to pick Elon. No way. Right. But he's
a big fan of Elon. So who in the administration turns on Trump? I
think very few of them who in Congress turns on Trump because they want Elon support. And then
who in the general business media, like a Chamath, David Sachs, all these guys, like,
how are they going to navigate their public persona right now in terms of who they support?
I think all of this stuff over the weeks, we're going to know more about. I think an'd be pretty hard
to do that, but maybe one or two senators if you can as well. And you financially guarantee their
reelection and guarantee to financially support them in the upcoming election cycle, where it's
clearly going to be a volatile election cycle with all this tariff stuff and now this fallout.
So you guarantee to support them. And by virtue of that, you corral them into effectively a new party.
But do you think a third party really has legs in this country?
I think, look, I.
Even with Elon's money, could it actually happen?
Yeah, that's what I was going to say is I think prior to this, I would have said absolutely not. But I think he won a lot of political influence in the cycle, whether or not
he's giving a lot of it away away today. I think he is giving at least some of it away today.
But he still won a lot of political cloud in the election cycle. And I also think that
if anyone can do it, it is probably the richest man in the world, you know, who can individually guarantee 10, maybe 15 elections a cycle on a micro level and then be able to affect enough change in the ability to pass legislation that he garners more power. I mean, I don't know. I don't know if he's serious about it or not.
He's just speculated.
But if he is serious about it,
the best way to do that is money, obviously.
Yeah, yeah.
Well, I think the question is,
is like, okay, I don't see how you get to the president,
but we were talking about this earlier.
Congress and all that stuff is so close
where you can get enough swing ones in there.
Like you pretty much need them to pass anything.
Both sides.
So, yeah, I don't know.
Dude, I just can't believe this is happening.
Like we are all never going to forget where we were when this divorce happened in front of us.
And I, you know, I was wrong.
I thought they would last.
Maybe you guys had, I really thought like they were at Mar-a-Lago together.
Elon and his kid are with Trump.
You know, Elon's being seen as the uncle to to Trump's grandkids. And it's like, OK, so this is cool.
This is going to work. But these are really big egos and personalities and they have different agendas.
Elon actually I genuinely think he wanted to do something about fraud and abuse and the spending bill completely guts it.
So it is just unbelievable to see it happening play out.
But I think over the coming weeks, we'll get more details on why it's happening.
Yeah, just to echo off that, not very long ago, I was at UFC 314 and I was like 30 feet behind them.
This was less than two months ago and they were sitting next to each other and Trump was playing with Elon's kid and they were watching the UFC fights together and having a grand old time. So do you feel like something else triggered behind the scenes?
It sounds like what you're saying is that, right? The bill is a part of this and Elon
strongly believes there, but something else snapped, something was said, and then that
brought all this to light. Or is this just, hey, this is just how they engage.
Well, I think that's what Trump said today, right? He said, I asked Elon to leave, and then he got mad.
I guess the question from Elon is like,
why did you ask me to leave?
And maybe it is as simple as Trump realized
Doge was getting in between his ability
to actually meaningfully get this one big, beautiful bill passed.
And that's why he said, all right, Elon,
you can't keep doing all these cuts
because I can't get my bill passed.
And I do agree.
I mean, the Olin podcast did a great comparison last week where it is net better to have this bill than not.
But I think Elon's being reasonable and saying, like, I'm not saying don't have the bill.
I'm just saying cut something here because you're really not cutting anything.
And I feel like that's what's causing this.
But it's hard to not imagine there's not so – I mean, to say the Epstein thing, like, that's a nuclear weapon.
You don't unleash you don't.
And I would Elon's been more right than wrong.
I would not doubt that.
I know we don't have any evidence yet, but if Elon is close to the administration and
he knows some of these stuff for him to drop that means that it feels like this is more
than just about a deficit bill.
And and I just don't think we have the answers yet.
Yeah, if you want to play devil's advocate, you don't go administration.
You say he owns all the Twitter inboxes.
I'm excited to see what happens next.
Evan?
I mean, I'm curious about this Palantir event we've been seeing going on.
I know it's an AI con.
I saw some photos in front of the robo-taxi there.
But I'm being curious how that's going.
I've seen a lot of exclusive interviews.
How is the event going for you, Amit?
By the way, if you're a fan of Palantir Robin Hood,
you have no idea what I'm talking about.
I don't know if I'm not supposed to talk about it.
But you should be following Amit.
Also, he does an awesome YouTube live stream.
I was going to ask Amit if he had any thoughts around the Palantir news that came out today
that kind of set it down a little bit.
Did you get a chance to check on that at all, Amit?
Yeah, so I saw the CARP interview this morning on CNBC with everyone else.
I think, and obviously I've got a lot of thoughts about it, but I'll just keep it brief
and then I'll get out of here.
I think that the New York Times did not actually study what Palantir software is, what the underlying mechanisms of the architecture of the software is.
And the idea that Palantir is building an evil surveillance database is just, it's not true.
It's just, it's like just factually false.
And that's what Karp said today.
He said point blank, we are not surveilling Americans and creating some master database.
I don't know if people remember, but Trump was, but Trump wanted to make the Muslim ban database back in 2015.
Palantir said we would never do something like that.
So when Karp says Palantir is the last platform that you would use to surveil Americans,
I believe him because we have evidence of Palantir not working with Russia, not working with China,
and obviously not working with agencies that want to do really horrific things.
And so Palantir is a platform that integrates data, aggregates it,
and allows you to get insights and take actions from it.
It's AWS does this, Oracle does this, Azure does this.
Are they the most evil companies in the world for having all this sensitive customer data?
Meta has all of our data.
Amazon has our data.
Google has our search data.
These are the companies that I feel like should be getting called out for what they're doing,
not a company that's helping the IRS more effectively find audits so that tax
revenues are more effective for the country. So, I mean, the whole article, I think, is based on a
lie. I think a lot of journalists are bored, by the way. And now I don't think they're going to
be bored based on what happened this evening. But the tariff story got boring. And then people
needed an excuse to make up a story about something going on in the world that's scary.
Palantir got framed as the evil boogeyman trying to steal all your data. The New York Times
business reporters, quite frankly, don't know anything about Palantir software, but I think
they have disdain for Trump and Palantir being the sort of evil scapegoat that they can use to
get at Trump because they're winning so many contracts, because they're actually building
good software, not because Trump wants to spy on everybody, I think was the angle. And then you
have all these left-wing extremists and right-wing extremists that came together on this idea that here's the
one big boogeyman we have to talk about. And I think that's how this whole narrative got started.
It's just pure propaganda. And, you know, the stock is the stock. You could have any opinions
you want about the valuation of the stock, but the merits of the story itself, I think, are just false.
And, you know, now that this whole Elon-Trump thing is happening,
I think the media has way more juicy stuff
to talk about.
And so I think in a month or two,
this is not going to be a story that has legs
or people are going to care about it
because it's factually false
and there's probably just more interesting stuff
to talk about.
Well said.
Stock Talk, any thoughts here?
On Palantir?
Yes, sir. No, not really, not on Palantir. sir no not really not on palantir no i'm it's a bit
obviously gonna go to for that all right i gotta leave but me and stock talk are doing a podcast
soon it's gonna be like a twitter spaces podcast we've been trying to do it for the past couple
months we've both been so busy so everyone watch out for that i think hopefully like mid-june early
july we're gonna launch it and uh, we'll be talking back next week.
Yes, sir.
Next week, okay, cool.
We will get to you guys more details when we have them.
But have you jumped on.
We'll chat with you soon.
And we'll give you guys some details around what that show is going to be.
We'll keep it nice and short, nice and punchy for you guys.
We're not going to make it like a lot of the other Spaces shows. I know this one, which
I love and I've been doing for years and we do every day, is really, really kind of, you know,
covers everything. We're going to try to do something, you know, a little bit different,
a little bit more dynamic. So it'll be great. Look out for it. Appreciate you, Amit. Thanks
for jumping in with us. Yeah, it'll be fun.
All right, guys. Thanks for having me. Talk later.
What's up, Monadiv?
Yeah, I was DMing you.
I think I'll take the other side to what Amit said.
to what Amit said, the problem is not whether it's true or not. The problem is, you know,
The problem is not whether it's true or not.
Palantir's had an extremely positive narrative all this while that helps. That narrative changes
to a negative narrative. It doesn't matter whether it's true or not. I mean, I give you a dozen
examples of stocks that have lost, you know, 20 30 percent and this then just don't move back
even with a lot of positive news that is the problem you don't want to lose that narrative
you you lose that it's very very very hard to get it back and on both sides it's not just it's not
just you know one side screaming on both sides there is a lot of mistrust about how much data should be collected in the first place.
And it just so conveniently happens that Palantir is in the middle of that process,
whether marginally or partly or fully, it doesn't really matter.
It's a narrative problem. And that's what I think is going on here.
And that's what I think will continue to hurt them for a while. That said, I have Palantir.
I only sold a part of it, you know, and I'm going to keep the rest.
So, you know, it's it's I think it'll come back.
But this is not something that's that can be dismissed as, oh, yeah, it's just overreaction.
It'll get better.
There is a big risk that the narrative becomes very negative
yeah i mean narratives can change quickly you're right and a lot of stocks trade on a ton of
premium and it's why i talk about you know you can't have it both ways you know if you are somebody that loves speculative stocks that go
up a lot and trade at really rich valuations and they're the leaders and the stars of the market
i'm talking about stocks like tesla palantir um you know even robin hood to an extent especially
over the last year uh these sort of parabolic stocks that just go up you know
five six hundred percent in a five-year period you have to be able to stomach the volatility when
markets do not have a bullish attitude you know and that comes and goes yes markets broadly go up
in the long term no one needs to tell you that. Everyone knows that markets, you know, in the very long term, markets broadly go up.
But not every stock always broadly goes up.
A lot of them sometimes go down for 10 years straight.
Some of them go out of business.
Some of them trade flat for 10 years straight.
So you also have to be mindful that you know individual stocks are not the market
and when you buy a stock you have to you're you're you are
implicitly accepting the conditions of volatility that that stock provides you right if you're going
to buy a stock that you know goes up and down 10 or 15 on a day depending
on what's going on and what sort of narrative is around the stock which is true for stocks like
tesla which is true for stocks like palantir which can be true for stocks like robin hood
which is certainly true for even more speculative stocks that are really popular like asts or you know any of these super popular retail names okay
they are inherently more volatile not only because sometimes they have smaller market caps in the
case of tesla that's not even true but you know some of them it's more so because the attitude
of the shareholder base is more fickle when you have a large amount of retail shareholders
of a stock institutions don't buy and sell i mean some fast money funds do again there's exceptions
to everything i'm saying so i want to add the caveats as i'm going but broadly speaking major
institutions are not buying and selling on a wick on you know a headline that doesn't have any objectively quantifiable implications
you know but retail traders do do that uh retail traders do panic and uh you know and they do chase
and they do drive stocks up 25 sometimes in a day or drive them down 25 in a day so you have
to understand the attitude of the stocks that you own and like if
you're if you're going to accept the condition of i want a high beta stock that's going to go up a
lot when the market's going a lot then understand when the market's not going up a lot you might
have to deal with a 30 or 40 drawdown and you know uh not complain about it because if you are
about it because if you are complaining about it you just the flat answer that is you shouldn't
complaining about it you just the flat answer to that is you shouldn't own those types of stocks
own those types of stocks or you should own them over shorter time periods one of the two right
you either look to trade those stocks or you or you don't own them at all if you're not okay with
the volatility there's no other answer so yeah i that's just me kind of reiterating that i think
to people who on moments like this with stocks like Tesla or stocks like any of these types of stocks that I mentioned, even Palantir was down like 9% today, right?
You have to accept that condition.
Otherwise, you go own low beta oil and gas stocks and industrial stocks and commodity stocks that you can predict better, you know they aren't gonna or most of
them are gonna tank you know 30% on you in a day so yeah you choose the
conditions you want to invest it that's up to you you don't blame the market or
don't blame the stock you know you know what stocks can do by virtue of where you
should know that before you buy them you should study you know hey how high beta
is this stock relative to the market?
You know, what's the average daily range of the stock?
You know, what sort of moments have happened
in recent history of the stock,
which you could find out just by scrolling through a chart
and finding out the date and searching up the news.
Like you can figure these things out in 10 minutes
about any stock.
And then you're like, okay,
I know what to expect here, volatility-wise.
And then you take that risk or you don't.
Pretty simple.
Evan, anything else you want to add in here?
No, I was thinking that.
I think we're at a decent place in this one.
You definitely should make sure you're following the speakers.
Great conversation with Steve. Shout conversation receive shout out as well
Yeah
People want us up to some topics out but I think we've talked about a lot here I'm kind of at this point where I want to see how stuff ends up playing out
You know like we're in a weird spot right now
I thought I thought the timing was weird outside of the way that we were talking about it earlier.
The timing of we were starting to get some sort of, you know, Trump talk to Xi.
There's some sort of progress that felt there.
There was a headline about the U.S. and Canada have been having backdoor conversation.
And then the Germany-U.S. conversations.
I thought that this type of headline capturing the momentum behind that stuff
is really interesting to me.
Because it seemed like if you would have backed out a week ago and said,
we're going to get those headlines coming in a week, I think people would have looked at it and thought pretty bulled up.
But now we have to put other things ahead of it and put some of this, not in terms of like money wise, but just to put the, it's going to capture the financial narrative and the front pages and all that stuff.
Yeah. and the front pages and all that stuff.
I will say,
I think this was coming to a head and not the start of it.
Uh, I think obviously,
even like you go back to Jared Isaac,
three days ago.
If you want.
Yeah.
I don't think we even talked about anything else about the rest of the market
i was gonna say i mean today was actually i know a lot of people um at the end of the day but oh
yeah planet labs raven was up like 50 which is crazy um it's back to prices not seen since like
what six months ago um but yeah that was that was actually a crazy move for that stock i didn't think
it was gonna squeeze that hard i didn't know the short interest was that high uh but nebius group
which we've been talking about on this show for the last what week and a half that month and a
half no i mean i mean i mean i'm talking about for my trade i've been pounding the table on it
for the past week and a half here every day um but yeah we we nailed that 884 on options by the end of the close uh over 100
on equity from our entry all documented all time stamped on the timeline you know um no no uh hey
believe me we were long we just straight up talked about it on the 9th on the 6th of may on the 12th of may 15th of
may 21st of may pound and pound to the table the stock has gone from 23.97 to 48 49 bucks at the
highs today you know even close 46 despite the pullback of the markets this thing is going
absolutely parabolic and what this really is is not only price discovery after the squeeze that happened
with core weave um and i was talking about this yesterday as well but uh also price discovery
around their taloka ai data business um which me and sam were discussing what literally two days ago right here and
around AV ride as well.
So I think this name continues to just perform really,
really well.
Obviously it needs a pullback at this point,
but who knows when that's going to come.
If it busts through this 51,
52 highs,
this thing's a relatively new IPO,
you know,
so this thing is just going to absolutely rip to the upside.
If it can bust through this 51-52 spot in the coming days.
So, yeah, that position has just been absolutely the main performance driver of the year
for us so far at this point because we went into it with conviction,
went into it with size, and really right at the right time.
It was pretty much near the lows.
The lows were 1831.
We got in, you know, 23, 24, 25.
We added more on the breakout over the 200 day and just insane move,
insane move over really just three weeks time.
So yeah, Nebius Group, amazing stock.
Like I said, become a core position for me this year, along with Centris Energy as well.
So, you know, I'm not a top seller on those names.
I did sell some of my options today.
We had the 40 calls.
Like I said, those were up like almost 900%.
So I did sell half of those, locked major profits on those.
But, you know, I'm going to let the rest of the position ride.
It's going gonna become a core
position for me it's now over 10 allocation for me uh after today's move so very very big position
for me uh especially considering i'm running 17 positions right now so yeah we also picked up some
asts lottos into the close after that elon fight happened. So that's good to see that thing ramped into the close and did very, very nicely.
Exometry, which we've been talking about a lot of these spaces, or sorry, I've been talking about a lot of these spaces,
which is the software company that pairs manufacturers with people in the supply chain,
obviously a tariff beneficiary, but just a unique company in general.
They had a nice move today as well up four percent and this stock pushed up into this 36 spot if we can break
over that in the next few days you actually have a golden cross happening on the daily as well for
that name um and consolidated nicely now for three weeks straight above the newly emerging 200 week
moving average by newly emerging i mean you know the stock is hasn't been around for 200 weeks straight above the newly emerging 200 week moving average by newly emerging i mean
you know the stock is hasn't been around for 200 weeks prior to that so that is really really
beautiful uh technical strength on exometry xmtr um which again isn't the sort of name i would
typically invest in but it's been a beast you know myst, Mystic shouted that out. And what has it been now?
Five weeks of holding it.
Shares are up 44%.
So, you know, that's another, becomes another core position.
You know, I mentioned this four or five days ago
when I was doing that portfolio review year,
but, you know, Nebius, Exometry, Centris Energy,
those are going to become core positions for me heading out of this year.
Kratos as well, but that's been one that I've owned for a while so you know there's no that's not a surprise
there but you know kratos again held up really well today as well just held that 40 spot after
breaking out past it which was which was nice to see um i did open a new position today in bloom
energy after that rpc rbc note this morning i thought it was a a pretty smart note and i do
like the daily setup you know this thing is been climbing trying to consolidate and tighten over
this 200 day moving average and it finally did it over the last few sessions now you have 921
pointing up you know 100 day resistance overhead bumped into it a couple of sessions ago,
tried again this morning, market pullback sort of pulled it back down. But this thing consolidates here between 19, 20 bucks,
could get a nice move over 21 on that.
And stock is also 25% short,
which I love trading stocks that have high short interest
because you can get explosive moves if they end up working well.
Warby Parker, which I brought up a few weeks ago, which we opened a position in, was up 4% today.
It actually had a pullback in the last couple of days with that Google news, which was silly because the Warby Parker AI glasses partnership was with Google.
But I think once the noise gets out and assuming the markets hold up, that's always a caveat to any individual stock trade is assuming the markets hold up.
But assuming the markets hold up, it's just thinking push back, push up past 22 bucks.
I think you get a nice move on Warby Parker, too, honestly.
And, you know, not as high bid of a stock as some of the other ones that I trade, but it can make nice intraday moves.
And, yeah, I think the stock deserves a re-rating on that partnership frankly
and i don't think that initial move from 17 to 20 was uh quite um i don't think it was a good
enough valuation of the opportunity for them so you know you look at luxotica which owns ray-ban
which is the partnership with meta that's like a massive company so yeah warby parker at a 2.5 billion
market cap you know i think it's interesting and currently i have you know shares and options but
you know that's a position where depending on how it matures depending on the analyst commentary i
see around that product you know maybe i end up making it a longer term position. We'll see. But you can't ignore the highest volume ever, you know, on that daily candle.
What was it?
10 days ago, 12 days ago.
So, yeah, I think Warby Parker remains interesting as well.
And that finally recovered that silly Google sell off.
So Mercury Systems, which we talked about, holding up really well today despite everything. talked about holding up really well today despite everything
kratos holding up really well today despite the reversal in the market so yeah um a lot of stuff
still working i think if you focus on the individual stocks you focus on the quality
names that have good technical setups that are holding up well that still have thematic opportunity
i think you'll be fine in this market like you know even with the the drawdown in tesla today
my portfolio is still bright green
because of Nebius and because of Magnite
and Exometry and Warby Parker.
And these positions outweigh the move.
So if you have a nice...
Some people don't like diversification.
They say it's for idiots.
I disagree.
I think it allows you to participate
in multiple themes at once.
I think that's the advantage of it.
And so on days like today, it helps
because you don't see drawdowns in too many names
when you get a reversal like that into the close.
So yeah, good day all in all.
Like I said, one new position with Bloom Energy
and just some recaps on some of the stocks
that we've been pounding the table on,
or at least I've been pounding the table on
over the past couple of weeks with Nebius and Exometry and some
of these other ones.
So, yeah, good day.
Did anybody get a chance to dig into Broadcom?
The numbers came out.
The conference call has been going on.
I have the chart over here in the corner of my screen.
It's just going all over the place.
I've seen several headlines coming out of it.
I didn't know if any of you guys, I know we've got a lot of other stuff going on,
but I didn't know if anybody had a chance to look into it at all.
So I took a look, again, just going off.
I've not listened to the call yet, but just going off their report, look, 25% growth in software led by VMware, right?
That deal was questioned heavily.
And just as with, you know, so many times before this, Haqtan has shown again that he can squeeze costs cut projects
and you know keep the core uh growing and he's proved that here 46 growth in in in ai uh
chipset revenue driven by networking again uh mid 60 67 67% margin, guiding for 66% margin.
It's still very exceptional performance for such a large company.
Reading off from that, they called out AI networking, three lines into that. So that I see as a positive for, you know,
all the custom ASIC, non-NVIDIA solutions,
you know, having, you know, bullish demand also.
We know that NVIDIA's numbers are solid
and their guidance was solid.
So it just shows the health of the overall AI market,
hardware market is still very, very
good. So that's what I got from just looking through their press release.
I don't know if Evan's playing catch up a little bit, but there are several headlines coming out
of the call. Year-on-year custom AI chip deployment to exceed expectations was one of them I saw. They also
said they still expect at least three customers to each deploy one million AI accelerator clusters
in 2027. There's mostly positive headlines that I'm seeing come out of the call is stock price all over the place. It did, it dumped on something a while ago. Marv,
the CFO said profit margins are shrinking due to bespoke artificial intelligence chip projects.
That's right when that came out is when I saw the stock kind of dip to that new low,
but it's recovered back a little bit here, just down 3%. Yeah. So, so, so remember the, the,
the only mature program they have where they can collect royalties is, is,
is with with, with Google, the, the rest of the,
the rest of the customers are still very early in the cycle or within,
you know, the first upgrade cycle or first change cycle of their,
their custom ASIC, AI ASIC.
So that, that part is, is sort of par for the course. It happens. The rest of the silicon, he didn't talk much, at least in the press release
at all about anything outside of the AI world. So maybe there's further slowdown there,
but that could mean, you know, we're cannibalizing some of the CapEx from custom
CPU solutions to this.
So I don't know if that's the case.
Again, I've not listened to the call.
I'll wait for the transcript and go through that.
But it does make sense that in the beginning, the design cycle, in the integration cycle, the margins are
lower than when the project becomes mature and you have less, you know, you collect your
royalty without having to necessarily spend as much time and effort on it as you did in the
first cycle. So that makes sense. I don't know what else was said
that could have caused that pullback.
Yeah, a couple of the other headlines I saw,
Monitiv, non-AI chip cells near bottom
and slow to recover.
Yeah, that sort of makes sense.
That's what I was alluding to that.
I didn't know that because it was not in the press release.
So it is very possible that many of their customers
are cannibalizing their regular data center CapEx
to concentrate on AI CapEx.
So there are lots of customers that are not going to have additional CapEx
available. They're going to keep it steady or grow it very little. And where the demand
is, they're going to go there, which is clearly, you know, AI specific compute. So that's
what I thought. Now you're confirming that.
Yeah. compute. So that's what I thought. Now you're confirming that.
You have to give this guy credit, right? He takes mature businesses within the tech sector. He clears out wasteful spend.
He shuts down projects that are not core and that are not likely to contribute increasing margins.
And he doubled out, he doubles down on places where, you know, there's broad agreement that that's where the core competency of the company is.
And that's where they need to go.
And he turns it around.
He's done that time and again.
And now he's done that at scale with VMware to,
to grow the overall software business.
my product was almost flat,
you know,
four years ago before,
you know, before, you know before the offer came on the table.
And he's turned that around dramatically.
I mean, 25% overall growth in the business, even if you, even if, and they called out
VMware as the cause for that, right?
So assume VMware grew at close to 30%.
That's phenomenal growth.
So it just goes to show what a good manager can do,
even in tough situations.
And I think if we get into a tighter economic situation,
you're going to see hot dance abilities
and the team he's put together
and the processes they've put in place.
You're going to see
them outperform because versus, you know, a generic large tech company, which always
struggles to find cost cutting places or efforts and cuts the wrong things.
These guys have done it so many times and they do it on a regular basis.
They're going to execute far
better in a weaker environment than almost any of the other larger tech
evan are you around
i am i am doing some work on the other side on the outside i cannot lie
uh i figured you were catching up with some stuff a lot of things going on here
didn't know if you uh saw anything on the broadcom that stuck out to you
no i have not looked i feel like a lot of us are playing catch up on all the all the stuff
that's going on obviously great conversation we had with Steve
all ago from Robin Hood in the middle of the craziness of the day.
But I'm trying to go back in my mind here
and think about what else even happened today.
Because obviously the headlines got completely stolen
by the entire feud between Trump and Elon.
Seems like there was some other news stories that we are missing.
You had a Trump-She call.
Yeah, okay, there you go. There's one.
I mentioned it when I gave a blurb like 10
minutes ago, but Trump and She had a call.
There was a headline on
backdoor channeling call between
Carney and Trump,
Carney from Canada,
and then there was a headline
about some agreements that
the united states and germany had um and that happened and then probably like an hour later
all this stuff kind of popped off but those were like the main that was like the main way
that the amazon story from this morning correct sorry. Sorry about that. That was the other one. Amazon, the Amazon story that Stock Talk is talking about right now.
Those are like the main ones that I, but I have a, whenever you, whenever you guys,
if you guys are going to run through any of these, go for it.
But when, when you guys are done, let me know.
I have a question.
No, go for it.
No, go for it.
So I wanted to make sure, because I saw the Musk decommissioning thing.
I wanted to make sure that I understood that that was the case. Anything that's tied to national security can kind of fall under the Defense Act, which Trump can just sign, Defense Protection Act.
Trump can sign an executive order that just basically nationalizes it for national security or, you know, bans his ability to take those kinds of actions.
And that's really serious from just a contract standpoint
it's serious from him being a ceo standpoint and stuff like that but i just wanted to to see if you
guys haven't i know you guys talked about the decommission thing but do you guys you guys think
anybody's gonna get in his ear and and uh do you think that anything like that could possibly happen
so so the powers are actually far wider than that
but the likelihood is i think very small this is just you know very early days i don't think i
don't think you're gonna see anything that far but the powers under that act are far wider than that
so you know obviously the department of defense is a big user of Starlink.
Department of Defense has contracts with almost all his companies. So the powers are far-reaching, but I don't think he can unilaterally act on that.
He's going to need Congress. He's going to need approvals.
to need he's going to need congress he's going to need uh he's going to need approvals it's almost
certainly going to cause bigger headaches if he does anything remotely close to doing that
because there are big problems that come out of that so it's not it's not just him if he does
that then at a nato level they have to have you know uh reactions that follow from that.
So it's not something that, well, with Trump, of course, anything is possible.
But that's extreme thermonuclear action at this point.
I think it's way too early to even posture that.
The Wolfie, they, they, they could just stop him from shutting down a program. That's easy enough to do.
Yeah.
Yeah.
I just, yeah.
That part is easy.
That, that, that doesn't even require, that doesn't even require, uh, you know, any new
act or, you know, any executive powers.
The DoD has contractual obligations, has terms in their contract where they will have very strict
production, end of life, extended support, spares, all of those are written into the contract.
And any of those will be enough to force his hand irrespective of what he wants to do.
It's not his decision alone.
So it's as simple as that.
So it doesn't even have to go to the president.
The DOD itself will take action if if if they think that it impacts an
active program or anything that that could cause them to you know have problems in the in the in
the near future they will act we're we're still we're still making parts for, you know, missiles that we stopped production in, you know, 30 years ago.
We're still keeping lines open without production for many lines that we don't actively manufacture anymore.
That's how it is with defense, right?
There's a, you know, it's easy for companies to jump in.
This market parades all these companies that get talked about, get a $2 million, $3 million contract, but there's a dark side to dealing with defenses, all these things.
You get to have to maintain unprofitable lines for a long time to come.
Those are the other sides of dealing with defense.
So the second question is,
this is just a thought.
I wonder if any of this has to do with the Iron Dome stuff.
And then I would start to think like what companies would be beneficiaries there?
Look, I think it's more general than that. I'll take it one level up, right?
So, so far,
a lot of what has come out has come out at the cost of defense primes.
You're going to see a section of the old establishment go back to the defense procurement heads and the defense chiefs and say,
Hey, we warned you.
This is the problem with dealing with newer companies that are not used
to our process, that are not used to how we deal with. So in some sense, this will
be positive for the primes, the older mega defense providers to lead these efforts rather than, you know,
having smaller companies completely, you know, do these things themselves. At least certainly
in critical programs, you're going to see more and more of the work go through primes and the
subcontract work. So Golden Dome is not, it's not a simple project. It's not going to happen in this
administration. That's just crazy. It's not going to happen in 10 years. It's going to take much,
much longer than that. It's just silly to, you know, talk about, oh, we're going to get it done
in 15 billion, a hundred billion. None of those things. Those are all impractical. So, you know, will we get it started? Yeah, will Starlink and possibly other parts of Musk's organizations participate in it?
Almost certainly.
I don't think they're going to be cut out easily.
I remember, you know, part of this is also the kind of business and revenue that comes to the states where these programs are going to
be executed on. So the entire Texas contingent is not going to stay quiet while only Starlink
is punished for something. It's not that simple to do. When comes to you know that level of uh bills you're gonna find somebody
you know stuffs in a provision that negates uh you know bans even if trump wants to do it it's
going to be very difficult to execute at a you know at a bill level to to any of those things so
i think it'll continue i think what you will see is that it'll all still be under a larger prime
and you know lockheed has been talked about
that i still think that's probably where it goes as the prime and then you have a whole bunch of
works up to you know everybody else that could probably do a better faster cheaper job than
lockheed can but you know for all the reasons i already said, the establishment is far more comfortable with doing it through that known and well-tested method.
And they're going to have at least a sympathetic ear for going back to that for the next few weeks or so.
For the next few weeks or so.
Do either of you know much about the Dragon program?
I mean, isn't that what just supplies the International Space Station?
What other...
I don't know much about this.
So, like, how deep does this go?
How much?
He has more satellites in space than anybody.
Well, right.
So that's, yeah, but the dragon piece,
I'm more taking the approach of what cards does Elon have here against Trump?
And would he, I mean, at what point is he like going against the U.S. government
more so than Trump? Like this is, I don't know, I'm just, my brain's going down. think backwards, right? Because I've taken the approach that I think it's a lot easier at this point. It's a lot easier for them
to kind of use him as a scapegoat. They even play that he's not really American
card if they wanted to, right? I feel like they can
unify enemy of my enemy more than the other way.
That's my quote-unquote fear.
So when you're saying it's him versus the U.S. government,
that's kind of like my base case, is that this is not a Trump thing.
And then some of the second, third, fourth orders, right?
He wants to put a chip in people.
That's one of his companies.
He has access to, or not access, he owns the access to the quote unquote town square, right?
So there's just a lot of, in my opinion, different levers where I just, I hope someone gets in his ear and says,
for your own sake, for the sake of your own companies,
et cetera, et cetera,
just don't boil this anymore.
But I don't think that that's how he operates or how it's going to operate.
So when you say that U.S. versus the government versus him,
yeah, to me, that's kind of like
how I think they're going to play it.
Yeah, that's where it gets a little murky for me,
because I sit there and some people will take that as,
Elon, your spat is hurting others, not just Trump.
It's against the U.S., the NASA program.
Yeah, like I could not set her up are up there yeah they could go out and say
doge doge uh was put he said he wanted to put doge in place to cut you know some of the stuff
you didn't you displace people's work it's like a very easy thing and then the other
handle they can pull is okay cool um we're to tax the 1% of the 1% even more.
And that's like a retaliation at him and like a handful of people.
And like who's going to side with that on his side?
Nobody.
And so it's like a very easy win if they wanted to pull that lever and it could just kind
of flip everything on its side.
I just don't know, man.
I just hope someone gets in.
I don't care one way or the other for me,
but for Elon's sake, I hope for his sake,
someone gets in his ear and talks some sense around that big of a picture.
So, Wolfie, I think the immediate impact
is probably going to be, you know,
taking Elon out of the trade discussion immediately
pushes down chances of getting approvals for starlink in so many countries where it's not
approved for example in europe right so i think those actions could happen immediately but or or
or getting uh you know uh some some specific tax uh you know at least under discussion in a trade deal, that impacts Elon.
For example, I think he has an additional tax that he pays for EVs he imports from China to
Europe. Those were under discussion in the trade deal. If those disappear, that's bad enough.
discussion in the trade deal though if if those disappear that's bad enough right so so it doesn't
even have to be full real action it just taking him off the table in those discussions will
actually affect him dramatically and quickly and our allies right or anybody that we are talking to
and our allies, right? Or anybody that we are talking to, if they don't think that they
have to give something to Elon to get a deal, they won't put it on the table.
I'm sorry, Mantov, could you repeat that last part? You cut out for me.
So what I was saying was, when we are discussing trade with our allies
it's been reported many many times that you know part of the discussions was to give elon's company
something if that's taken off the table if if if the counterparty in our trade discussion feels
that they don't have to give in something to elon to get a trade deal they won't nobody's going to do this willingly especially
with someone that's not in a good standing with the administration right so so those things are
probably more immediate impacts in the next uh you know couple of quarters canceling existing
contracts i think is much further away on either side neither can can he get out of it, nor can they just cut it all out.
New contracts, different story.
But where he's in already,
it's going to drain out very slowly.
That's kind of why I wonder where the cards fall here.
I mean, I would assume the u.s government has the much stronger hand right i mean that just makes the most sense but i just
wonder what what cards does elon hold and did he blow them all today i mean i don't i think there's, so the other aspect of it is, you know, you don't want to alienate the best of the best, right?
So I think he knows that he's going to be granted more slack than, you know, Joe Schmoe CEO.
But I, yeah, I don't think push comes to shove.
It's very easy to make an example.
In my opinion, it's very easy to, quote, unquote, make an example of someone or do only like five to 10 people fall in, I don't think anybody, you know, constituent wise across the board would have any problem with it. balanced about what they could possibly do as I could be.
And I think that would probably be the easiest one.
But outside of that, you don't want to, I think just from a U.S. standpoint,
you don't want to lose the biggest space company on the planet
with more satellites than anybody else on the planet in space
because you
pissed somebody off, right?
So that's like...
Somebody brings up for it, but did you guys see
what he said about
Trump having 3.5 years left?
Did you see that?
No, go for it.
I don't know if somebody brought it up, but
he said Trump has 3.5
years left as president, but I'll be here for 40 plus
years.
Yeah, he's just
yeah, I don't know, man.
They've
literally revoked
things
that are a lot less. Let's just put it
that way.
I don't know that there is a winner in this in the long run at all um
yeah bitcoin i just looked over bitcoin dropped down to almost 100k
i saw that it caught did it catch the port right at 100 100 k5 basically 420 that area yeah markets will do their thing and panic on this i mean
you know like everything we talked about this i think during the deep seek sell-off but
everything in markets is just like a risk curve, right? Like there are different things that happen that either add to or reduce the
risk in the market and things like this. It's like, yeah,
does this up the risk a little bit? Sure.
Probably add some political volatility, some unpredictable,
unpredictability to policy, you know?
So you have to price that in a little bit. So yeah,
will my markets take a little pause for a couple days or a couple weeks?
Sure.
I don't think that's far-fetched to think.
We've come a long way in a short time.
And as long as we hold the 200-day moving average, I personally won't be concerned about it.
But like I always say, if we sell below that, then that's when you start thinking about being defensive
and not putting a bunch of long exposure on the table but
outside of that volatility is volatility right like i mean you know if you're a new trader who
started like in covid the one advantage you have versus a lot of other five-year periods is
you're you probably you should be at least used to volatility by now you know between the covid crash the recovery um you
know the tariff tantrum from earlier this year all of the rate cut market tantrums and no more rate
cuts and the labor data sell-offs and you had a lot of you had an eventful five years for volatility
so um you should be used but by now still panic every time
the markets go up or down through a couple of percent like you know don't do that they just
don't do that and i guess if you're super leveraged in weekly calls or something i get that i get why
you would panic because you know if your whole net worth is in weekly calls and it matters a lot what happens over the next three days but like making money in
markets is not about like acing a two-day move you know even if you are a day trader you'd have
to do that really consistently but markets are about like making money while you're right and not losing much money while you're wrong.
Because you're going to be wrong.
You know, I've been hot recently, but there are periods where I'm cold too.
A lot of stuff I try doesn't work.
You know, the point is to take advantage of those periods where things are working.
Make sure you're capitalizing on it.
Even if you're an investor.
By capitalizing on it, I if you're an investor by capitalizing on it,
I don't necessarily mean sell your stock, you know,
but capitalizing on it in terms of making sure your capital is allocated to the
right places. Maybe you're taking trims on parabolic runs.
Maybe you have options layered into your position that you can trade around.
You know, all these sorts of things.
It's just a matter of paying attention a bit of active
management you are seeing precious metals catching a bit here right now sorry i have my screens up
see that i was looking at yeah yeah the future is just open though like right as you are looking at
it yeah we're sitting on the daily nine for QQQ and Spy, both.
We're literally right here in After Hours.
Yeah, like, I mean, let's see.
I mean, even if you do get more pressure here, you're, what,
Spy's down a quarter of a percent After Hours.
Where's the 90%?
Yeah, we're right there, sticking right into it.
We've had a couple stick staves at that spot, right?
You go back three or four sessions.
Yeah, multiple times.
And if you look left, this is the consolidation that we've been in for three weeks.
The question for me as a trader is, is this a look above and fail?
And do we traverse the range back down
towards the bottom side now which i think is probably more likely than anything just given
all the circumstances going on yeah but if if you've been a trader you know to your point you've
been trading this market and you know you got long anytime in the last two months. You're up nicely. Most people were probably
trimming or sitting. And I don't know, my approach to the last few weeks was, okay,
I'm not going to deploy a whole lot here. If it does float higher, I'll just wait it out.
I mean, hopefully, I know some people probably aggressively were adding recently here, and those are probably the people freaking out.
But I think if you do get a dip in the market, that your more seasoned investors and traders are waiting to probably deploy a lot more capital.
I think there's a big bid probably waiting under this market if it starts to pull back the next week or two, maybe three weeks into the quarterly options expiration.
next week or two maybe three weeks into the quarterly options expiration yeah but conversely
you could also but the conversely your point's not wrong but conversely take a look at where we
stopped today right 599 spot 70 yeah 6k 6k on the nose basically right and we and that's the
that'll make the third or fourth time that we get to 6K, can't close above
it. And then just look at some of the names that have moved up massively. Microsoft made an all-time
high today. And if we were to fail here, like market-wise, Microsoft-wise, that's a double top,
right? Some of these nuclear names that went parabolic, they basically stopped at their previous all-time highs.
That's a double top, right?
Even HIMSS came within 2% of the all-time high before it failed.
And so, yeah, I don't disagree.
I think the capital on the sidelines or people might be enthusiastic to take a shot lower.
enthusiastic, take a shot lower.
But the problem, I think, is
just from a technical setup,
if we were to fail here, we kind of have a lot of
ammo for a bigger move down, possibly.
For the range's sake,
you got a 3% between now and the 200-day,
if I remember correctly.
And then like 3.5% between today's, or 3.7% between today's high
and the gap up above the 200 day, whatever that day was, I think it was May 12th, and that low
that we set after it against the 200 day. So yeah, basically call it a 4% range, break one way or the
other, has to break aggressively, can't just kind of fail there.
And today we tried to poke our head above it and we failed.
So we'll see technically, but I wouldn't get overly excited to find an entry in the
short run.
And I kind of want to see it prove itself.
I'd kind of want to see it prove itself.
Yeah, I mean, one of the things that was on my radar was basically a look above and fell into this.
The first time you get to 6,000 since what, late February?
Yeah, February.
Yeah, so I think this was a major target you have the the consolidate but when i look at a
consolidation like this a look above and a failure back into the range you most of the times you
traverse it and uh you know test the other side of it and then see what it's made out of but that
would make the most sense to me i'm not you know i'm not calling it either way i don't i don't know
how far it could go but i think it could cool off a decent amount here.
I mean, that's my base case is that we continue this pullback and maybe even dip into that gap a little bit over the next few weeks.
But, I mean, we don't have a whole lot of catalysts.
Obviously, we get the jobs report.
There's some macro stuff.
There's all the para stuff still kind of up in the air.
So, I mean, I guess you could argue there are catalysts there but you know earnings company-wise we're pretty much going into the the dead period until the next earnings season
yeah that's what that's what makes this um headline today so interesting from a trading
perspective like you don't have anything outside of tomorrow,
basically don't have anything until the Fed, right? Like there's just like kind of a quiet period.
And so, you know, what, what is, you know, what, where does this kind of spread, right? And so if
it were to spread anywhere, if there's any sort of like uncertainty or it bleeds in elsewhere,
that's where it becomes
kind of an issue in the short run not not like a long term just like the next five to ten day
window basically when does that fed blackout period actually start because we had a lot of
fed speakers today but i feel like let me see i've got the calendar
june 6th so friday's the tomorrow's the last day that we'll hear from any fed speakers as well
yeah you won't hear from him for 10 days, basically.
Stock talk, is there anything else you wanted to hit on today?
No, I'm good. Aaron Rodgers to the Steelers.
I don't know if that headline got lost.
Oh, shit.
He picked the worst time to announce it.
Or best, depending on what he wanted.
Yeah, right?
Rodgers to the Steelers.
NBA starts tonight.
Finals.
Not intrigued.
I mean, my night looks like digging into more of this stuff
and watching some basketball
and getting stuff done
alright
appreciate everyone
we'll be back next week
we don't do stocks on spaces on Fridays
we do have live trading all day tomorrow and some other stuff going on.
But as far as this show goes, we'll be back on Monday afternoon.
We'll see what transpires over the weekend.
I'm sure we'll have plenty to talk about as the fallout of this either continues or dust starts to settle one way or the other.
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