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EMERGENCY Bitcoin spaces
Recorded: Aug. 25, 2025 Duration: 0:52:18Space Recording
Full Transcription
Music Thank you. Yo, what's up guys?
Professor Coyne, it's probably not the best time to invite you to co-host, but if you
do want to hop on, go for it.
We'll see how many people show up.
What up, champ?
Yo, dude, I haven't run his faces and probably probably a year now yeah for sure yeah I know it's
been a minute looks like Bitcoin is just bleeding to zero yeah I mean, nothing surprised. But ETH got that scan pump.
Didn't do anything, though.
I think you pinged me earlier today.
Like, ETHPTC can run for a while, even if BIF...
Yeah.
Like, ETHPTC is the one thing I wouldn't short, basically.
Yeah, but we're still holding this level for now,
right above that point, 0.4, 1.
Yeah.
Yeah, did ETH break 5k today?
No, I mean, that would be a nice topping level actually.
Good whole round number, and having that well
just kind of blasted off top blast so yeah I agree
we'll hold up for this faces all right guys we can get started got a little crew if you want me to
by the way is my connection fine professor coin Coyne, can you hear me?
Yeah, yeah, you're good.
Okay, cool. All right, I'll give a little bit of a monologue here.
Obviously, people have seen my bear posts, and admittedly, I got pretty bearish, especially when we went to 112.
especially when we went to 112.
I actually ended up closing, like I shorted the market.
I ended up closing those shorts at like 101.5 or something.
I longed like, no joke, like 99k.
So early.
Like it was ridiculous, to be honest.
And then I flipped back to being bearish in the you know clearly that was a mistake because we ended up having another leg up to uh 123
and then we went up to 124.5 um you know i to some degree i under I wouldn't say underappreciated but clearly there were
still some of these treasury companies in the pipeline and like ETF the ETF bid and like
getting this like last speculative wave in my opinion
pushed us to 123 124 and yeah, if you've been reading my tweets,
you've been seeing, like, me posting some ridiculous bear-tard shit.
Which, you know, to some degree I stand by, right?
Like, maybe the targets are questionable.
Maybe they're a little bit hyperbolic, but, you know,
I'm pretty damn bearish here.
And we had a good run, right?
Like, the question I keep asking myself is,
who's left to buy?
Chip you won't silent your connections off. All right. Well, why are you getting that fixed? Yeah. The left to buy, you mentioned that,
I mean, several weeks ago and there's always been a new buyer that's come in randomly,
but I think that fizzled out.'s faded obviously there you are you're back cool
uh yeah thanks professor coin for letting me know I disconnected I reconnected to my wi-fi
so hopefully now it's good um look like the treasury bit's clearly done like meta planet's
buying you know now they're buying 100 bitcoin like you can literally look at all the treasury
companies right it's sailors buying like 10 to 40 million dollars a week like sailors cooked Now they're buying 100 Bitcoin. You can literally look at all the treasury companies, right?
Sailors buying like 10 to $40 million a week.
Sailors cooked.
Metaplanets cooked.
David Bailey literally top-blasted.
What are some of the other ones?
Trump actually bought... I don't remember what his entry was, to be honest.
I don't think he disclosed it.
But yeah, basically you had two sources of bids.
We know the treasury bid is done.
Like, it's just transparent.
And the ETF bid has just been, like, dog shit.
And it's been dog shit even when stocks have been up, right?
Like, the ETF is not really doing much one way or the other.
So, you know, when I look at Bitcoin, it's like every time we've had these
sort of market tops in the past, like you look at 2021, Bitcoin runs, you know, does its thing,
and then altcoins start to get more of a bid. And like, this is like, to me, the classic end stages
of a market, which is like Bitcoin struggling. It clearly doesn't have any like, and by the way, to like to push it to 130 or 140, you need top blasters, right? And the
treasuries were the top blasters. So like, you don't have those top blasters now. It's clearly
struggling and everyone got distracted by alts, right? And like, you look at other metrics,
right? This is, and by the way, these are the same metrics I use as at the lows, just in reverse.
And by the way, these are the same metrics I used at the lows, just in reverse.
So when we were at 26K, or if you look at...
I'll talk about this after, but if you look at open interest now...
It was at $88 billion the first time we went to $123 billion.
$90 billion the first time we want we pumped to 123 like a month
a bit over a month ago right so
all right hopefully my connection is not
it just cut off for like a couple words but you're good Thank you. Okay, we're just waiting for Jim to get back in.
He's just reconnecting right now all right test test my back yeah you were back man the bulls are doing their best to keep you down
where did i disconnect that do disconnect at, if you remember?
I just heard open interest.
Okay, so open interest.
Again, open interest was super low.
It got wiped out in the 80Ks.
It was super low all of summer of last year.
I was bullish all of summer of last year.
You can go look at my tweets in July, August, September, right know you can go look at like and I'm not gonna name names but
people can remember like the same people who are bullish now I was on spaces with
and at 26k right literally 26k and they were telling me how Bitcoin is gonna go
to 20 next and it was like me and maybe air mass telling them that that you know
that was incorrect I don't know I've just seen this story too many times.
Like the market's over leveraged.
There's no bid on Bitcoin, clearly.
There's a lot of complacency.
Sentiment is like record bullish.
We've been bleeding out.
And I think ultimately like this thing's going to accelerate at some point.
I don't know when.
It's going to accelerate.
And there's going to be a lot of wealth destruction.
And, you know, every time I've seen something like this happen, it could take a month.
It could take two months.
Like, you look at what happened in 2021.
Like, it took about two months to go from 69 to 33.
Could be something similar.
Like, it could take one to two months.
We get a big wipeout and then we sort of enter into a complacency period.
But, again, you also have like
all these parasites in the space now like that's not helping so i don't know like it's just peak
and i say this like i see this every time at the tops and at the bottoms like at the 60k top
and by the way it's the exact same story now, to be honest. At the 60k top, what were people saying?
USD is worthless.
Inflation is sky high.
Fed is printing, right?
Like, you know, August of 2025 at 50k.
And he was saying, like, you know, we're going to keep printing all this shit.
Like, Fed's doing all this printing,
et cetera, et cetera, interest rates, blah, blah, blah,
like Bitcoin, new world currency.
And then like we went as low as 15, 16K, right?
Like such a stark contrast in price.
And you had major players blow up
because they just got too cocky, right?
Like the Suzu's and everyone else.
And again, these are literally
arguments it's too okay oh professor coin did i disconnect again no it was just choppy for a
minute but you're good all right let me let me know if i disconnect again so i'll just reconnect
again because I'll just reconnect. Look, what happened at the last time?
I can't buy Bitcoin because what if the $2,800 or $2,400? These are the arguments I was hearing.
like these are the arguments I was hearing.
People at
16k saying like, hey, I want to buy Bitcoin,
but the Nasdaq's going to 9,000, right?
So it's like literally the exact,
like it's the mirror image.
And then now we're back at 110
and it's like you,
because of Trump and because of all this shit
that he's done, he's basically like
pyramid longing, pyramid like bullishness that he's done, he's basically like,
pyramid longing, pyramid like, bullishness,
and ultimately like, I think this thing's
not gonna end well, so I'm bearish, you know, I'm short with size,
people are like, you're not sharing your short position,
I don't need to share my short position. Ultimately like, I'm short with size. People are like, you're not sharing your short position. I don't need to share my short position.
Ultimately, like, I'm happy to...
I don't know ultimately where we go.
In terms of, like, targets I'm looking at, I don't know.
I'm just looking for an extended period of, like, doom and then to reevaluate so we'll see what
happens but that's sort of my thoughts professor coin I don't know if you have
any thoughts here yeah I agree I mean it's hard to put a target you got the
obvious targets everyone knows of 108 100 psychological the 90 area I mean but
it's like how much time does it take to get to those levels because it's like if
you're bleeding out here for what two months four months and it's like how much time does it take to get to those levels? Because it's like if you're bleeding out here for two months, four months, and it's still like above 100, I mean, then it's like time to reevaluate.
I think it's just like time with where it breaks down on those levels.
And I feel like on every breakdown, you're going to have all these dip buyers come in.
So that might even take longer defending the 108, defending the 100, defending defending the 90 and then like being able to reevaluate from there.
And it's just how much time is that going to take though? I mean, if,
if this charts accelerating under those levels, um, yeah,
then we can, we can start to see, okay, well,
where is the buy the dip then at that point? I feel like if there,
there's a big enough flush,
like I feel like it was the same thing when it went down to around the 77 area the last time btc revisited that you know it didn't get to
70 or below but it was clearly a bottom and i remember you flipped long at the right time soon
you were expecting lower targets but for whatever you were looking at you did flip bull at that time
so expecting lower targets, but for whatever you were looking at, you did flip bull at that time. Chimp, you there? Did I lose you?
Shit, sorry, I disconnected. I changed networks.
Professor Cohen, I heard you say, like, heard you say it depends how long it dips.
If it stays above 100, you have to reevaluate,
but it could take two months, it could take four months.
Yeah, and it's like targeting those levels,
just like the 77K dip that BTC had last,
I know you were targeting lower levels or 70 or below but then you flipped bull around that 77 area and whatever data
you were looking at was right and it went up from there so you change your
bias pretty quick on that yeah and I'm willing to change my bias at any point
like I don't need to be a perma bear.
I don't need to, like, see Bitcoin go to 20K or whatever. But, you know, from what I'm seeing right now, it looks like a market.
And I've been posting this on my YouTube videos.
Like, if you go to, like, Hyperliquid, I don't know how accurate this is.
But, like, you look at all those liquidation maps.
They're all, like, super skewed towards, like, hey hey if bitcoin goes down a couple percent everyone's getting liquidated um
i just don't know like when i think about like there's like the ball underwater analogy right
and it's like at the lows you push the ball underwater and then there's just so much of a
bid and like so many people ready to buy and like first spot seller sell then leverage apes like trying to suppress the price
and then the ball eventually pops like I feel like there's like a gravity
problem here almost at the highs where it's like open interest is sky-high
there's not clearly a bit on there's clearly not really a bit on Bitcoin like
all these leverage apes are sort of like in and need price to go up in order to not get liquidated.
And at some point, like the trapdoor is going to break. And I don't know if it's like,
you know, we've, we've come to this 112 level a couple of times now. I don't know if 112 is
ultimately going to be like, I don't know if we're going to break down today. I don't know if 112 is ultimately going to be like,
I don't know if we're going to break down today. I don't know if we get another scam pump.
But I think at some point this level gives and then like you're going to have issues. And you know, the weird thing is like you read people like buying the dip, like Bitcoin dips 2% or
some random altcoin dips 2% and they're like, my god like this is the dip to buy like this is like another classic top
behavior like i remember when we went from 69 to uh and i and i by the way i should say this too
like some of this some of the reasons i'm bearish to are like proprietary data um which there's like a certain signal i look at which is like
has it flashed at every other top and it's flashed at this one too so ultimately again we'll see
we'll see if that plays out but um like the dip buying behavior is like classic shit you see at the highs, like I remember when Bitcoin dipped from 65 to 61 in April of 20, April 2021.
And people were saying that's the dip to buy, right?
Like people get trained to buy like these 3% or 4% dips because it's worked.
Or, you know, when we were in the 60s in October, November, like Bitcoin went from 69 to, you know, went as low as 61.5.
And people were saying you should buy Bitcoin at 64.5 because like that was the dip, right?
Oh, that was the dip, right?
And you get, people get trained on this because like the market doesn't really dip.
Like, you know, you don't get much pullbacks.
And so on the way up like yeah like
you need to be bidding like some of these sharper dips but on the way like clearly that moment or
at least it seems like that momentum started to stall so maybe i'm not being coherent here maybe
let me reword it a little bit like when you see people saying you should buy like a three or five or 7% dip,
that's usually a very dangerous sign.
Again, like you could have bought the dip from 65 to 61,
or you could have like had capital ready and got liquidated at some point on the way down.
Or you could have had capital ready to buy the dip at 30 or 32 or 33 or 35 like this market doesn't tend to like
when you get behavior like that going on for too long it tends to punish it and you know i this is
what i anticipate i don't know if it's gonna play out like i'm just talking about my past experiences
and what i think is gonna, like on the way down,
what I sort of anticipate is the reflexive loop is going to slowly start to shift.
And like, what are some things that I would look for in terms of being a buyer?
And I'll tell you like kind of what I was looking at at the 70s, like high 70s, low 80s.
Like, what would I look for to be a buyer?
And what are some pitfalls to avoid on the way down?
It's something along the lines of like, you know, once we,
let's say we go from here, I don't know.
I'm just, again, I'm just spitballing numbers. Let's say we go from here and three days from now,
we just wick down to 100, right?
Or we wick down to 96.
Possible, right?
I don't know if it's going to happen.
It's possible.
The problem is, like, the further away you get from the all-time high,
the more, like, people are going to get exposed.
Like, it's going to be almost harder to go up, right?
That's why, like, the bounces are going to get smaller,
and the flush is going
to amplify, in my opinion. So, like, I think you go down, you could get bounces, you might even get
bounces for a while, you know, bulls have money for now, like, or they have had money, we'll see
how much money they have, like, that's why these flush outs, by the way, take one or two months,
because it takes that long to, like, liquidate all these bulls, basically.
So, you know, we might go down, we might get a bounce.
Again, but right now we're at $1.13, $1.12, looking at $1.24.
Like, oh, the all-time high is $12K away.
If we go to $96, now the all-time high is $30K away, right? So, the dip buying you get might be for, let's say we go to 96, you might get a bounce to
101 or 106, but then ultimately it's going to fade at some point.
And this is the sort of behavior you'd see.
Now, what are some things I would look for to mark a bottom?
What I'd want to see, this is the type of behavior that you would want to see ideally, is longs getting chopped to death, you getting like wicks into support that get bought up, you have like an extended, like clearly you have like longs that have gotten totally flushed.
but interest low, you know, sentiment dog shit.
So like very low timeframe, if you look at very low timeframe,
like forced selling that like once it's done, the market just auto rebounds.
So like what were some things I was looking at in the 70s?
And like I was pretty bearish.
Like when we dumped sub 80 the first time, I thought like, oh, we could bounce here.
But then after we had that bounce, I was still pretty bearish. Like I just thought there was too much supply. What made me bullish
was once we went below 70, sorry, below 80 the second time when we went to 76.7. So like,
if you look at mid-March of this year, we went to 76.7, we printed a lower low,
seven we printed a lower low and then we auto rebounded and then when you looked at the price
and then we auto rebounded. And then when you looked at the price action,
action it just didn't like bitcoin just could not sit below 80k it could wick below it but it
couldn't sit below it so when i saw that combined with record low leverage combined with like
everyone getting washed out combined with the fact that like typically in these scenarios like bulls
like people still have money and then combine that with the fact that, like, and then the second
time, like, we went to 75, but then, again, we auto-rebounded, we couldn't sit below 80, like,
it was pretty clear, and you can go watch my video on YouTube that I posted in April, like,
I was like, hey, maybe we get a scam dump, but I think ultimately we're going up, like, maybe we
dumped, like, to a higher low, but I think we're going up. And we ended up going up, right?
And people were so...
By the way, also one thing you'll see at these bottoms
is everyone watching the stock market.
So when you see people selling Bitcoin or panic selling their leverage
because stocks are down 1% or 2%,
that is a great sign of a bottom, actually.
You don't see that right now, really but like if you see bitcoin find a bottom somewhere
and then like it pumps a couple percentage and then people panic sell it because stocks
are down like also another great indicator is when stocks are like
dooming and then bitcoin is just chilling that's another great bottom indicator i've used that one a lot that was obviously happening sort
of in the that was happening in you know march april so these are just some things to uh to
look out for i did and by the way like i have i have anecdotal stories of april too and then
sorry professor when i'll let you go like i was talking to someone this guy has nine he manages a nine-figure fund okay
and I was sending him like I wouldn't say essays but I just sent him a couple paragraphs like look
I really think this is the so I talked to him he's like look we de-risked everything in
I don't know when he said like January or whatever right like he probably de-risked everything like
in the mid 90s or 100k or whatever and I was like and I was talking to him and I'm like okay are you guys doing much trading
and he's like no not really like we basically de-risk mostly and I would I sent him like a
couple paragraphs I'm like look you really need to buy like you know I really think it's a good
spot to buy and he was just like look I just don't think we have the right, I don't think like, we're aligned on trading styles or whatever. And yeah, I mean,
like, that's the type of thing that I was hearing a lot of, right? Either, like, this is the two
stories I was hearing in March, April was like, either funds that had sold the top, but they just
didn't want to get in because they thought we were going to go lower, right?
Maybe they could rebuy in the 60s or whatever.
Or funds that got obliterated on something like Solana and they had to de-risk everything and they were just sidelined.
So that's why the more I was hearing about that, the more I was talking to people, the more I was like, okay, this market's probably just going to go up.
But again, it's the
opposite story now right like everyone's leveraged everyone's max bullish when clearly the treasury
bid's not there so anyways professor coin I've gone on for too long so I'll let you let you go
that's good input I remember you sharing that though at that time with stock market like you mentioned it just made me think like how es is flat right now
bitcoin's been underperforming the market for quite a while and we think okay if it could play
catch up it never did instead it's bleeding even more while es is flat so it's like the reverse
what you were saying like when Bitcoin bottoming pattern happens,
you want to see the market tank
and then Bitcoin's just staggering.
This is the other way around.
ES is nearly flat right now
and you see that weakness in BTC.
And when the stock market, for example, in 2018,
it made new highs while bitcoin just went like
going straight to zero so um i i think when the market actually does pull back
that's a scary time for bitty you know at the 108 level 100 as support seeing how it reacts there
weight level 100 as support seeing how it reacts there uh and going into september everyone's got
that whole seasonality thing i mean whether true or not true it's still coming up and bitty's pretty
weak right now so i think the 108 level or one after it breaks below 110 108 to 110
that's a i think that's a big danger zone.
I think you're just going to see the same thing play out.
Alts BTC bounce higher, outperform on every bounce that Bitcoin has.
Yeah, I think one thing to look for in terms of a bot,
by the way, I totally agree with you.
The ES is flat, Bitcoin's bleeding, right?
That's not a good sign.
And ES has been like...
Actually, the stock market has been making new highs
and crypto has been bleeding even to some degree.
And another point with the alts, totally right.
I think we could continue to see that.
What I would look for in terms of a bottom would be...
And by the way, we saw this with Solana, for example, when it went down to like 120.
Like what I would want to see for a bottom is like Bitcoin flat and all it's kind of getting wrecked or like all sort of just like, like not wrecked, I would say, but like all it's already wrecked.
Sorry, maybe that's a better way of putting it like.
right maybe that's a better way of putting it like um and what would i want to see it like
And what would I want to see?
let's say we go down and then we find a bottom in one or two months and then we have a big bounce
what would i want to see to be like okay the bounce is over i'd want to see certain alts just
pumping like crazy and i i talked about this in my video yesterday i've talked about it a bit like i
could be wrong about this you know i might pick a different canary in the coal mine in the future. But I think certain alts like Solana are like huge canaries in the coal mine. Just because like so much grift has been done on Solana, this cycle that like anytime you see Sol really outperform or really pump, like it's a heartbringer of death. And like, we saw that the days by the way right like solana pumped uh one you know 210 or whatever it was um like you literally
have trump grifting money out of the ecosystem you have everyone grifting money out of the ecosystem
right so like there's going to be negative pressures i think on seoul um again i could
be wrong about this i don't i wouldn't use this indicator like in isolation
obviously as I wouldn't with any indicator but like when Solana if so like if you had a situation
where again like let's say Bitcoin goes to 90 and then Solana goes to 140 and then Bitcoin bounces like to a hundred and then Solana goes from 140 to 185 like that
would be like huge red flag and by the way like if you look at if you look at the big wicks Solana
has done above 200 like those have basically been a top on bitcoin every time like the first time it did it was uh right around 120 the next time was at 124 and obviously made a
new high like you know in the last 24 hours i don't know i just think that's gonna be a good
heartbringer like i'm actually you know i've been short for a while i've actually been pretty calm
about it or not calm but like i don't know if calm is
the word i mean professor coin you can i guess you can testify to some degree like yeah like
i'm pretty active in the zoopap members chat yeah and he's not even worried even as you're
you've been waiting you've been making profit on your alts that you've shorted so like in the
meantime that's been going well right yeah i mean like and I've collected a shitload of funding like
you know I I don't know like I've been pretty comfortable in my shorts obviously
if we go to 120 sorry if we go to 125 or something like you know maybe I'll reevaluate but
I just don't see it at this point and I feel like you know just looking at something like
hyper liquid it doesn't look like many people look like many people are holding shorts at this point.
Like, in my mind, like, I have a pretty comfortable next month
or month and a half game plan.
And I don't know, like, I remember feeling kind of like this in 2018,
like when I was taking trades back then.
Just something about being in low leverage
directional trades where I know it's going to take a long time to play out and I'm just living
my life otherwise and just feel the same the same way now about it like it's a low leverage
directional short and everything sort of seems to be lined up in my favor
and i'll just let it run its course until i see like at least a couple indicators of a
of a bottom to uh close out and like potentially flip long but that could take a month that could
take two months i don't know and it could be a lot lower like you know in terms of like potential
targets i still don't think something like a 60K is off the table.
People kind of scoff at that now because we're at 112.
But I saw Bitcoin go from 60 to 30 twice in 2021.
Like a 50% haircut.
So it wouldn't totally shock me.
So it wouldn't totally shock me.
And by the way, like one other thing I want to say too,
and then we can actually open it up if anyone wants to hop on to give their
opinion, you know, even if you disagree.
One thing that, uh,
fuck what was I going to say?
One thing that wouldn't totally shock me.
And then I lost my train of thought.
You're talking about 60k
yeah it was something unrelated to 60
that's okay anyways if anyone wants to hop on like go for it
if you disagree go for it you can hop on give your take
and like oh this is what I wanted to say
I see people like calling for bitcoin at 600 or a million or whatever.
Like people act as if like we're early in the cycle.
Like you have to ask yourself, where are we in terms of like, or people now saying there is no cycle, right?
There is no cycle top.
Like it's just an infinite like up only regime.
By the way, classic shit you hear like at tops.
Bitcoin's pulled like an 8x off the lows and you could again like put a put a twitter filter go read all my tweets
from december of 2022 like obviously i was bullish before then too but
you know it's clear clearly like 8x off those levels. We're not early in this market.
Upside is very capped. There's a lot of hot money flowing around. And, uh, you know, ultimately we
could go, ultimately I think we're going a lot lower. So with that being said, let's, uh, let's
bring on some, some speakers. I see NLF has been waiting for a while. So I'm impressed at these,
this time of night that there are speakers
dude I wasn't even gonna run a spaces but I'm like you know what this is urgent
it's been so you need to save some people some money and their entire inheritance and everything
you know what if this is a top it's a good timing because I remember when I first ran
my spaces it was at that 60k top in October, November of 2021.
Yeah, I remember.
All righty, NLF.
Oh, he requested and then he dropped and then he requested again.
Dude, I'll tell you a funny story before i before nlf comes up
one of the reasons i stopped running spaces i just got so tired of uh
i just got so tired of um copying on and people just saying such a dumb shit at the like
i remember one time at 26k or whatever i ran his faces and some guy hopped on and was like,
Gareth Soloway has been right about every call.
I was bullish at 26.
And then some guy was like, Gareth Soloway has been right about every call and he's calling for a move to 10k next.
And I was just like, okay, I just can't deal with this anymore.
All right, we got NLF off.
What's up, brother?
How you feeling?
Yo. Yo. uh all right we got nlf off what's up brother how you feeling yo yo what's up bro i don't know if you just pulled out or what but speaking of which i'm thinking of
dipping in um here yeah uh it's good to see you here man it's good to see you guys uh just gonna carry on
with your last point there i guess um i could carry off anywhere dude you made a lot of good points
um let's just say uh time frame i think you're wrong because if I said you're right, then the conversation couldn't continue.
But yeah, I think, I think we see 125 actually.
I think I'm not afraid that's in the cards,
but the reason for that is no reason
because Bitcoin can do what it wants.
And I do think we're going to triple top
like we did in the 2021 cycle or 2017 could happen
again which is like what a 90 drop almost and yeah like you guys said both uh it's just a matter of
time do you think that's worth that risk reward uh of time really if you don't have money
time is your best friend and if you have money well i guess time is kind of working against you
because you got to make a decision right and we're definitely entering that volatility stage.
Yeah.
sorry,
I'm,
what's your timeframe on that 125?
So what's your timeframe on the 125?
And then don't you think the risk reward?
So let's say that's like what,
13 K from here and your downside being quite a bit greater. i could keep going i don't know you guys are
both muted so um he can't hear me nlf can you hear us brother yeah overall like i am in agreeance though with like the bear sentiment and um you know all these grifters all these
top blasters all these people just taking advantage and that's you know
it can be it can be a sign right but um
if you guys like
i would say keep your faith in your game plan like you guys are doing good i like what i'm hearing
hell yeah i got a quick question yeah go for it so i know uh like with the s&p 500 and that
it's like overvalued and like the infinite money supply just like keeps pouring into that and it
always goes up and to the right is that happening for bitcoin or like is that going to happen in
the future where like bitcoin becomes like the next boomer investment you know i i think like
long term bitcoin does benefit from the fact that like for real little chimp open my message someday
or like whenever you got time i know you're a busy guy but fuck man it sounds like you're doing
great so like fucking shit i guess you don't have that much time Send me another message brother. I'll read send me another message. I'll talk
Definitely read it. Let's make these happen more often
Sounds good brother. Thanks, NLF
Cannot cannot lose. Sorry. What was your question again?
That's the passive bit the passive. Okay, so
So I think crypto is in a better spot than stocks
because the one issue stocks have is a lot of boomers own it.
And so as they get older and as they retire and as they have to sell,
that's actually going to be a drag on stocks.
So the reason stocks have gone up and done so well
is because of the 401ks and everyone contributing.
I don't think it has as much to do with Infinite Money Printer as people think like i think a lot of it doesn't like i used to talk
about him a lot people gave him gave me shit for it but uh if you go read mike green's work or go
watch some mike green videos am i the only one who can't hear chimp no and we got we gotta kick
him off or and he'll join you let me remove him from speaker. Maybe that's what's causing it.
Like you can go watch some of Mike Green's videos.
By the way, this guy called that COVID melt-up perfectly.
And like his thesis is like, you have a lot of passive flows and a lot of this type of stuff that's been pushing stocks up.
But at some point it's going to reverse.
And he thinks it's going to be sooner than later.
But, you know, obviously he doesn't know for sure either um i think bitcoin bet is a beneficiary
of the fact that no not many people own it and so like as younger people like assuming there's
not some mega ai like no one works anymore like as younger people like get into 401ks and contribute
money like some of that some of that ideally goes into crypto and bitcoin
and over time it could like you know lift itself up a bit as a result so i think from that
perspective like bitcoin definitely has uh it could be a beneficiary of that but the issue
that this space has is it's like a bunch of these boom bust cycles and it's very reflexive it's basically you know
what stocks were like 100 plus years ago which is like super reflexive crazy shit going on these
cycles and it's like always sort of comes in a little bit of a different flavor but
the issue is like you get these big booms and then you get like reflexive flows that follow and then you get parasites which naturally come in.
And then those parasites just take a long period of time to wipe out.
So, yeah, I think like the long, long term horizon for Bitcoin probably is, you know, quite positive.
But I think, like, locally, we could,
you know, you could easily get big bubbles.
Like, we went to... And by the way, like,
people were talking about crypto
like being a new paradigm at 60k
in 2021, right? And we went down to 16.
So, like, big swings, big
movements, big volatility is
just not a... It's just something you have
to expect and anticipate in this space. I don't know if that answers your question but and
if you have a follow-up go for it no I'd say I'm still curious thank you yep
KR what's up brother you know it's nice to see you back on spaces I mean just
throwing it back to like the 2022 days I would be driving to work listening to your stuff and the market would just straight up be imploding right like 3 hours liquidation
and lunar liquidation all this stuff and like you said it was virtually the complete mirror image
we're trading at like 20k and people would be like i'm not buying here because go to 14k or
like garrett's always says go to 9k or whatever right yeah i i definitely agree with you there
where it's like the virtually the complete mirror image there's also some other data points though
that i want to bring up for us being like the coinbase premium ever since we went to like 125k
this should have just been trading negative the whole the whole way and perhaps has been trading
much much higher right which just signifies the fact that the spot beta
we were used to seeing the last like really two years
ever since we bought them is basically disappeared, right?
From the ETFs and from the treasuries.
So that's really, really bad.
The second thing as well is I think the four year cycle
is also very, very strong.
Like virtually everyone i
know wants to sell the october top based on the having track thing right but the issue with that
is when everyone thinks the same way it kind of becomes like a self-fulfilling prophecy in the
sense that if we start dumping like we are now it seems kind of retarded to not sell like one month
beforehand given that if everyone agrees that it's very late cycle it
like i mentioned it becomes a self-fulfilling proxy as well so yeah overall i definitely
agree with you chimp and it's just nice to see you back on spaces man
really appreciate it kr this those are some very kind words yeah i mean i agree with you like the
coinbase premium's gone like you know i'm looking at it right now. Coinbase is trading at a discount, actually. And by the way, like people can always find coins and sell them. Like, I don't want to go through the whole thought experiment. And I know you didn't ask for it, KR. But I'm just saying like to everyone listening, you know, you can go through the thought experiment of what's Bitcoin's market cap, how much money needs to come in to move it to the upside.
That's why I sent it in the members chat in ZooCap, which is a Discord I run.
You can find it pinned in my bio.
I sent the analysis before we even broke above $112.
I said, hey, the highest I think we could go is maybe $125, maybe $130.
I said $k is virtually impossible
um you can go through the math yourself you know when you guys have the time and
go through that thought experiment and you'll see like yeah like it's unless like
100 billion dollars comes into bitcoin and maybe even more than that like
going to 200k is actually like virtually impossible right now uh yeah and kr like you're right like and like
that 2022 time you know i made some mistakes too by the way like getting too bullish at
when luna first blew up or getting too bullish like when we dumped you know when we were having
that you know i faded the luna buy actually which is the funny part but then i tried to buy you know
in the high 30s the funny part was like when we ultimately did bottom it was so obvious like we went into the
20s and then obviously when FTX collapsed like the fact that Bitcoin barely went like two thousand
dollars lower on like such a massive collapse like it's kind of and it's the same thing here
too like something and this is something I'm very,
I've been guilty of for years now, which is like, I'll get bullish or bearish too early,
but then like once I see the, once I see like the whole picture, it's very obvious like, okay,
the market's topped or the market's bottomed. But the problem is like, I tried to anticipate it
a leg or too early. And that definitely happened to me this time around too.
I remember when FTX blew up, I just looked at the market.
I looked at order books.
I looked at open interest.
I looked at everything going on.
I looked at the fact that $116 was holding really well.
Bitcoin basically did not want to trade below $116.
And I was like, this is for sure a bottom.
But I tried to convince myself the Luna collapse at $30k was a bottom but like you know i tried to convince myself like the luna collapse and at 30k was a
bottom and in hindsight it wasn't but by the way like if people bought any of those levels like
ultimately you ended up actually making a great buy if you just held for like you know a year or
two years like you were up a lot a lot if you held for three years you were up a shitload right
um or if you averaged in like it's kind of the same in reverse here in the sense that like,
yeah, if you sold out, like, I still think this is the case, like, if you sold out 106 or 108 or
114 or 121, like, we're all going to look back and be like, oh, those were pretty good sales.
You know, similar to like 2021, if you sold at 55k, or you sold at $68k or you sold at $61k, you look back months later and you said, oh yeah, all of those were fantastic exits actually.
At the time, if you sold at $55k and it went to $65k, you're looking at yourself and like, oh shit, I fucked up.
I still think that's probably going to be the case here.
Again, I could be wrong.
Obviously, markets have a way of humbling you. But I still think if you sold 108 two months ago and you just closed your computer for four months or six months or eight months, you're going to come back and be able to buy at significantly lower prices.
All right, we got a winter mute.
What's up, brother?
Hey, guys.
Yeah, everybody expects this kind of thing, so I'm just going to throw it out there.
What the hell?
I mean, I think you made a lot of good points about it's probably a good place to de-risk
here and trade down or trade for the downside.
And seasonality is with that and all.
But, you know, so many people have this cyclical thing going on where, you know, traditionally
we have the dip in September and then back in late October, everything peaks.
And that pretty much coincides with the timing of the halving cycle.
And a lot of people have targets of like, you know, 150-ish for the end of the cycle. So it seems like a lot of things have targets of like you know 150 ish for the end of the cycle so it
seems like a lot of things are colluding for that so i don't know if you put any credence in that
i think it's all over here i think that would be a little unusual for this but you know not like
every cycle is anything but a rhyme for the previous anyway but i was just thinking you know it seems like the general consensus is more like we peak
in october rather than here i would be surprised about that because it would mean that like the
like the reason i'd be surprised is when i look at like the market right now and i see all this
leverage i just think it's going to be really hard to maintain that for the for the next two months
um i know there's a lot of cyclical stuff
and people look at these monthly data,
but the way I kind of like to think about it
is I like to zoom out and just think about
where we're sitting in terms of leverage
and where we are in terms of sentiment
and everything else.
And sort of what I'm thinking is
the point we've gone to is going to require
a month or two months of flush out.
And by the way,
like we saw that in March,
April.
That was one other reason I got pretty bullish is because I was like,
okay,
you know,
you're not going to get a dip to 80 and then it immediately rebounds to 110.
Like that doesn't make sense because a lot of people are wrecked.
But once you had sort of sat in the eighties for a month a month and a half and you gave people
time to de-risk and sell and you know go to cash then it was like okay you know there's probably
actually not that many sellers left when I look at the market now I still think that like I think
virtually no one sold and people are actually leveraged buying dips and whatnot still.
So I think, like, I would be surprised if we go up in October.
Like, I would be surprised if we go up and make a new all-time high in October.
But, you know, I'm just going to play it sort of one leg at a time, I guess.
Not sure if that answers your question at all.
No, that's cool.
I think, you know, everybody's got their own play on this. And I certainly agree.
We've got a lot of complacency in the market at this point.
And there's no reason for it not to pull back at least for a month or two.
All right, guys.
I didn't want to run this for too, too long.
So I do appreciate everyone hopping on.
Professor Coyne, thank you so much for hopping on, dude.
I was not expecting you to hop on and co-host.
I appreciate the invite.
I appreciate it.
So anyways, guys, thanks a bunch for hopping on.
If people like the spaces, I'll try to run them more regularly.
It's just been so long.
And with stuff going on in my personal life,
it's just hard to run these at the times that I used to run them at.
So that's why I've been recording YouTube videos instead.
So if you haven't subscribed, go find my YouTube and subscribe to that.
Because I post videos there with actual charts and other data that I look at.
And it's totally free, right?
You can just look at it.
Also, if you want to talk to me outside of that, there's the Zoocap Discord that's pinned in my bio.
So if you join that, become a member there for free.
I think you just have to make an account on one of our affiliate linked exchanges.
I'm pretty active.
Professor Coin can tell you I'm sharing a lot of shit there.
At the lows, I was sharing stuff.
And at the highs, Professor Coin's actually seen my positions I'm in.
He can confirm their, uh,
you know,
respectable size.
Very much so.
And it's funny when you,
when you post on Twitter,
how sometimes it's serious,
sometimes it's not.
And then you like confirm it and do.
So I think being in the discord is important.
Yeah.
So anyways,
guys,
appreciate it.
Thank you for hopping on.
And,
until next time,
take care. And I'll, if you want to send me another message I'll give you a response so I missed it my bad all right guys
take care everyone thanks again
