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ETF DEEP DIVE
Recorded: Oct. 2, 2025 Duration: 3:58:33Space Recording
Short Summary
In a recent discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored significant growth trends in the market, highlighting Tesla's recovery, the potential of BM&R as a crypto treasury, and the surprising strength in cannabis stocks. The conversation emphasized the importance of strategic investments in mid-cap stocks and the evolving landscape of crypto partnerships.
Full Transcription
hello
what a day
what a day
great day wonderful day my uh individual stock portfolio
is doing very nice my uh etf portfolio is also having a nice little comeback here we went right
there for a second tech going red qqq and voo both went red but nice recoveries A couple of the sectors I'm in are green as well.
My equal weight Magnificent 7 ETF is down.
Interesting.
Some of the larger names not doing super well, but overall doing green.
Tesla is one with an interesting reversal there.
Had some numbers that came in above expectations this morning.
Stocks now down 4%.
The rest of the market's looking pretty
good bmnr ethereum why why is bmr lagging all the other crypto plays because it's been so good
before look left and look left oh no i think it's because there's just so many of these things now
that it's gotten diluted right when it was just mstr it was I would bet you
BMN are wouldn't be performing better than some of the other ones though you know would be my guess
to the other crypto treasury names I'm not saying crypto treasuries the next best thing in this area
it's okay we don't gotta go from that but i i would imagine in the in within
that category bmr would probably be acting pretty well maybe it's ethereum's not acting as well as
some of these other coins are based off of i don't know i'm i don't complain about five percent
amp i don't know about you i rolled my calls i'm currently in 55s. 55s would expire this week.
If we have a nice move here,
I'll probably roll into something for next week.
But, yeah.
We have to kick it around.
Anyone want to start us off here?
Stock Geek.
We've seen you in some of the space
and we haven't had the chance to go to that so much.
Options, Mike.
We've programmed.
It's like Pavlov's dog. I say, let's go to someone. And Mike, we've progressed like a pavlov's dog i say let's let's go to
someone and mike we've programmed him damn right man go ahead it's fair it's fair ring the bell
you start strolling i'm like a dog man i can't help myself the giants also a dog but let's go
over to stock geek first stocky hey hey hey this is fighting words man yo what's going on sir how you doing what are you watching
you want to say anything nice about bm and r
you know actually uh no i do think bm and r i do think of the crypto treasury companies i'd say
it's one of the one of the more high profile ones ones. So when crypto treasuries are running, I think it's got to be top of the heap.
So, yeah.
No, I think it's – I've got it on my watch list.
I keep a close eye on it.
I think it's a good barometer of overall risk-taking on some of those crypto names.
But –
That was a nice way of saying this is shit.
I don't like it.
But this is the best poop in the shit pile.
But we'll let it go. This is also a family-friendly show no cursing guys i don't need to tell you
again all right now stock geek go uh no but i think just generally overall today um you know
obviously one of the big themes here is that a lot of these um these concept names are running
again so you've got you know oklo and ion q and IonQ and Rocket Lab and Joby and all those,
you know, those kind of a large market cap,
low to no revenue names going.
And I don't know.
It's just, it's surprising.
I thought they were cracking, you know, 10 days ago.
And I thought maybe,
maybe Oclo was going to be back at 60 in a hurry.
I took some puts on it and it has not worked, thankfully everything else in the portfolio it's your president i love you
man but nothing cracks in my market everything will just go up yeah no you just let me know
when it's time to time to play the short side there will be a day that comes when a couple of
weeks months and it's going to be whatever right now this is brutal yeah yeah but thankfully uh thankfully
we've made up made up with it um we had you know the surprise strength in some of the cannabis
stocks i got real lucky on some tilray options that were up three thousand percent and then uh
you know chinese stocks i mean god the strength in baba and baidu has surprised even even me who
was pretty bullish on that uh that whole sector whole sector of Chinese stocks that were also benefiting
from the Chinese AI wave. I still think there's some opportunities there. There's some smaller,
small to mid-cap names there that still look like they could be due for bigger breakouts. VNet,
Kingsoft Cloud, these are not going to be necessarily the highest quality names,
but they benefit from the AI data center stuff there in
in Asia. So that's an area I'm watching. You know, I've been trying to do more work on some
of the other where the markets might find more undiscovered gems for the AI-themed trade.
So looked pretty closely at some natural gas names. I'm not really convinced there yet. I've
been speaking with some people on that in the natural gas world, trying to get smart there. But yeah, I haven't made a lot of moves
today. So I'll hand it over to somebody else who wants to talk about other sectors that they're
trading today. You rugged Evan with whatever happened there. Get Evan back up here real fast. Logical,
your hand went up there. Let's go over your direction.
Yeah, again, stuff like you unmuted. Did you want to say something? Or is he not unmuted?
He looks unmuted to me. All right. I've got a muted go ahead okay excellent cool cool yeah incredible day
again I mean this market is insane you know while markets only up a few bips
dude this is a nuts man my portfolio is a 5% today which is crazy this is getting
nuts it's only over 121k bitcoin's over 121 you said
yeah i will say that it does look like things are setting up to melt up um i have taken a step back
today in my portfolio management this like these gains are just insane i I'm up 171% this year.
This happened very quickly.
I literally hit like 150% like two days ago and now I'm at 170.
I don't own a lot of things that most people own,
but I own a lot of bios
and those are doing incredibly well.
I actually still only mostly own bios.
I still think that they have the best value in the market,
especially if we start to see a weaker slowing consumer which you know that jobs report yesterday
was interesting um you're starting to see a lot of calls come through again for housing names
housing will do better if you know rates come down specifically the long end of the curve um
and if they get you know mortgage uh spreads to come down as well so you know i thought
that was interesting you know weaker consumer potentially or slowing economy potentially on
the consumer side and uh then you get the housing names to run which or not run yet but like there's
they're starting to load up like i saw dr horton calls i saw uh florida core calls i saw home depot
what happened with our what happened with RKT? I saw that they
had some acquisition of Mr. Cooper
and then they ended up dumping.
What did they do in After Hours?
They announced that acquisition a long time ago.
Like four months ago.
They completed it yesterday.
That doesn't matter.
But they did something in After Hours.
The common stock offering.
Oh, that's interesting. That's ridiculous.
I mean, the stock is up quite a bit this year, so it kind of makes sense.
But they're becoming like a one-stop shop.
$150 million.
Yeah, they're becoming a one-stop shop with Mr. Cooper being the servicing aspect,
then the Rocket Mortgage being the origination,
and then Redfin being the lead generation.
Evan, I think you might be unmuted
it's a little loud in your background but um so yeah so you know i wonder what's gonna happen
what i can say is look it's clearly set up here for like um yeah a melt up i just uh as much as
i want to participate i'm 100% long in this market.
But like this morning, I was like 150, 560% long.
So I did a very big change today.
And maybe it's, you know, a week too early.
I'm always a week too early.
I remember a few months ago, I like got impatient with like, I was at Archer and maybe like Zeta and like a couple of
these other, like, you know, really hot speculative names. And like, I closed out my calls. They're up
30%. And the next day, like the stock, the underlying stocks go up 30%. And those calls
would have been up 300%. So, you know, don't, you know, maybe use me as a signal as like,
it's about to rip from here. And probably is which if that happens you know I'm
sure my portfolio would do just fine I I end up yeah being a little too early to the cells which
is fine um hell of a year and I just want to be able to protect it um yeah I think maybe I'm
definitely incurring some uh high amounts of taxes which is something that everyone should
consider when they're
doing short-term trading and stuff like that.
So I would say that's probably one of the big downsides.
But generally speaking, I don't want to make investing decisions based off tax implications.
I want to make them off of investing implications.
So yeah, for me, it made sense to deliver the portfolio.
I got rid of like a bunch of small positions.
I have the fewest number of positions I've ever held right now, which is the number 13.
I feel good about these names.
And yeah, I still think that they're going to work from here.
And a lot of them, again, I have 90% allocation to the biotech sector, 10% to tech.
That's it.
So simplify my portfolio today, delivered.
Crazy, crazy performance i still think there's a ton of upside from a lot of the names that i own and i just want to be operating
from a place of like i want to say less stress because i wasn't really stressed but i could
imagine it gets stressful because you know you push up and up and up every single day i mean at
some point i mean there's really two scenarios,
right? Either we pull back, you know, and that'd be healthy, or we melt up, which, you know,
will suck for that extra exposure I dropped off. But like, if we just melt up from here,
then you got to assume that, you know, the more vertical you go up, the more vertical you come
down. So, you know, I'm just kind of cognizant of that. And, you know, heading into
these earnings, I think that's something that maybe people aren't talking about yet, but we're
going to start getting earnings here soon. Quarter ended. Yeah, we're like two weeks away.
Yeah. And so I personally don't want to have a ton of exposure into this kind of binary catalyst
event, specifically in like a lot of tech names that have run hundreds of percents from the bottom of
you know April and not I mean we shouldn't anchor to that but let's be real if we anchor to you know
the February highs you know those stocks were extremely expensive in February and so they're
still up from there so all I'm saying is like I don't want to be overly exposed after a hell of a
run and you know you can say i'm being defensive or
something but i'm i mean i'm still 100 allocated i'm just not in the the names that i've run
hundreds of percent and that's always been my style is to try to find value somewhere else and
you know you can clearly feel it in the bios like that they're starting to wake up and you know
again outperforming today up 80 bips you know xvi is at 102 now at new highs of day um and you
know spy is not making new high of day so there's been clear outperformance there i'm just being very
selective and uh yeah so again like here's sorry last thing and i see mike's hands up but okay
you're headed into earning season and everything's been ripping i mean i think from a
i think stock talk says this too is like look left and right now if you look left these stocks are
all up into the right and so the it becomes a tougher expectation headed into the print
so if we've just been climbing for the last three six months then the prices are beginning to um be you know this is
more than priced in a good earnings is more than priced in so you know these stocks are unless
they're able to like beat and raise um which they could they very well could I'm just saying that
the price you're paying today it's you know baking in. So, yeah, if you don't
exceed that, go ahead.
Let's throw it around a little. Mike,
do you have your hand up? Any thoughts on the conversation
there? I just want you to know
logical. It's one of my best friends in the world. Whatever he
says, I go by. But he's wrong. Very wrong.
The market's just going to keep going
up because I said so. I'm not
trumping today. He just kept
the deal. I want to key on something he said I thought was really important.
I've been saying this for a while quietly, and I'm not trying to stress it, but the longer this market goes on like it is, the worse the down reaction is going to be.
When you get a market that gets completely irrational, and we're in an irrational market, and it just doesn't want to go anywhere but up, up and up. The longer that goes on, the
more vicious that down move is. And it's going to usually comes
when people least expect it, when they're leveraged out their wazoo
being keeping a PG here. And so I think that was a great point
logical I just wanted to jump on that with you thank you I thought that was
logical. I just wanted to jump on that with you. Thank you. I thought that was really good.
really good
I'll let's go for it no you're good logical I honestly yeah I was so I think
expecting a pullback here is it's tough not to kind of have that in the back of
your mind no I don't think we're gonna get one i hate to say
if you want to play devil's advocate to yourself then that type of thinking is is the type of
market where like the pain trade might be higher look look what's going on here we can't get a dip
beyond the 21 day the mnr can't we can't get any kind of dip into this market that is any kind of
meaningfulness any goos is good news it doesn't matter whether there's good news or bad news.
You don't even need news.
They're talking about
we're not going to have economic data tomorrow.
Who cares?
We talked about this yesterday.
We're in a post-data
market right now.
Look,
this, well, let me
first just call out ASTS, which I was talking about yesterday.
Stock talk and I were talking about it tripping again.
Uh, I mean, look, I've been looking for reasons to sell.
I really have.
I've been going through my accounts, uh, through my positions with a fine tooth comb today in my Discord before the open, I laid out every position with my followers and I said, I can't find reasons to sell these things,
right? Like some things are an option, so the downside's limited, okay? Some things I'm
acquiring over time. I did de-risk my AST a little bit today of switching from commons to longer term options but i can't find
reasons to sell technically everything's great but i'll tell you this okay we are going to have the
mother of all corrections at some point this market there are so many stupid things just going
up through the roof whether it's uh you know pre-revenue stocks, whether it's, I know this
is family spaces, but shit coins, whether it's treasuries, whether it's SPACs, everything's
going through the roof. And it is going to be the mother of all corrections when it happens,
but it ain't happening anytime soon, right? And you make hay while the sun's shining.
soon, right? And you make hay while the sun's shining. So all I can tell people is just make
sure you know what you're managing and why you're managing it. What are your timeframes? What are
your risk parameters? And as long as you're doing that, you're okay. But where you get into trouble
is if you just think, yeah, the things are going to go to the sky forever and you're not raising
your stops. You don't know where you'll be wrong. And one day you'll wake up and it's going to go to the sky forever and you're not raising your stops. You don't know where you'll be wrong.
And one day you'll wake up and it's going to be ugly.
But until then,
this,
this market's crazy.
Honestly,
I haven't seen a market this crazy since,
since the internet boom in the late nineties.
Brian,
trouble tends to come in a market like this when nobody expects it.
It comes out of nowhere,
right?
Something that catches everybody off car. Well, what happens is, and everybody's leveraged out the waz nowhere, right? Something that catches everybody off car.
Well, what happens is...
And everybody's leveraged out the wazoo, right? So then you start this cascade effect.
What happens is, here's when it happens, right? It happens after the market has taught people to buy the dips.
Because that's what markets do, right? They drop to the 8 or they drop to the 21 or maybe they...
BTFD.
Right, Right.
And, and,
and by the dip works every single time until the last dozen.
Right.
And again,
I'm not trying to tell you,
I'm telling you right now,
it's been very stressful for me the last two and a half weeks,
just holding my positions.
Cause I got lots of people in my discord.
I got subscribers.
I got people on fit to it that are just crying are just crying like the sky is going to fall, especially this last two weeks.
And I keep looking at these charts, and I say, is there a technical reason to sell?
And there isn't.
But I know where I'm going to be wrong.
And one last thing.
I love fall, and I got to tell you, if I could just get our trader-in in chief to de-schedule uh pot i'd be done
i think i would just check out for the year you wish is my command
honestly i think you brought up a good point though i mean
technicals look great right it's not like this market is screaming hot it's not right if you
look at all sentiment stuff nothing's running hot it's weird because it's this slow grind up uh if you're looking for a reason to sell from a fundamental perspective
and by the way i'm trying to do conversations today i think sometimes it's a great you know
back and forth what is there uh the job market's weakening yep you know the economy's slowing yep
there are some good fundamental reasons out there to say this but this market doesn't care how about some questions from the
audience man i'm tired of hearing us talk about stuff throw some people up here to ask some
questions how about jay woods i see jay woods out there hey hey i i have a question for you first
of all uh yeah my head's exploding listening to this. I just got back from the CMT annual symposium in Dubai where I was on a panel talking about bubbles.
And I said, yeah, this is a bubble, sure.
But, you know, you can make a ton of money in a bubble.
And, Brian, you just said something.
Like, you're going through your positions right now.
And the only reason to sell is to take profits.
That's a great reason to sell,
by the way. I'm looking at some of these moves technically. And you look at the big names,
you look at the leadership, you look at the MAG-7, and you look at each of those seven
stocks individually. Okay, Tesla may run into some trouble here getting back to all-time highs.
But if you were following it technically, you saw the breakout and the run to this level.
technically. You saw the breakout and the run to this level. Yeah, this is a strong market
technically. Then fundamentally, when you look at historically, Brian, you just said this reminds
you a little of .com, and it does. Don't get me wrong. You had the internet, now you have AI,
and it definitely will be a bubble. And when it ends, it could end and we crash down to 7700 in the s&p 500 who knows but right
now if you're in it just enjoy it and stop worrying about it you don't get hit by the bus you're not
looking for something is going to change and we're not going to know what it is and when it is but
isn't that the irony is that people get more anxious when it's just going up relentlessly like people their stocks drop they'll go ah it'll come back i'll hold on to it but when it's going
up day after day after day that's when people get anxious yeah and and like look i i'll put it in
real terms i i like when i when i talk professionally i and i'm trying to be professional
here guys but like i don't know this is the fun crowd when i come and talk to you to the spaces crap um like like i own this righetti all right i i know it's
a quantum stock i know what the chart looked like i bought it at 11 and i sold some at 17 and i just
sold some at 31 and i still have a third of my position and yeah am i kicking myself thinking
oh my god it's now 34, I think?
But I know why I bought the stock.
I got lucky that it broke out.
I got lucky that it continued.
I couldn't tell you anything about Quantum except these stocks are hot as hell right now.
And when you get into one of these names, enjoy it.
Enjoy the ride. Now, is this the next big thing?
I'm not smart enough to know that. I just know that it's very overvalued right now.
And I made some money and now I'm free rolling it and it's good. But my core holdings, the things
that help put my kids through school are those big, magnificent names. And, you know, and some
of them have worked out really well, and others,
you have your winners and losers. But for people to be complaining about a bubble,
the pullbacks have been minimal. Yes, the 21-day, I use the 20-day moving average has been a champ.
It reminds me of 2017, Trump's first full term in office now. All right, we got through the whole
full term in office now. All right. We got through the whole tariff tantrum and liberation day chart.
And now we made that back. And when you look at it, technically, we're just slowly going up the
news. Forget about it. You know, because we're not going to get unemployment date on Friday,
doesn't mean it's going to change the earnings of all these companies that are leading us
to these new highs. It's not euphoric yet. That was one of the big questions asked when we were
at this panel. And you'll see euphoria when more IPOs come. We're getting them. I love it. I love
when we're getting some of these IPOs. And some of them, like this bullish and Figma, got a little
out over their skis because the retail investor is looking for something. But some of them worked
out. Circle worked out for a few more days than normal. And it looks like it's actually coming back. If you look at it from an
anchored VWAP point of view from its first day of trading, it's going to get back to 150 and then
we'll see where it goes. But there's not a euphoria yet. It's not even like 2021 with the SPAC boom.
So yes. What about Cisco?
About ready to break out of a 25-year base?
What do you think about that?
Cisco, I've been on Cisco for over a year, man. And I remember when I looked at that chart, I'm like, am I really going to say I like
Cisco right now?
And like, I do, I do.
It looks good.
And then when you look into Cisco, you know they did a big acquisition, Splunk from the
cybersecurity space was the acquisition a few years ago. And that is paying dividends. And they've been able to adapt. Then
there are some companies that are struggling. Look at Salesforce and Adobe. They don't look so
good right now. I wouldn't touch them. So there are clear winners and losers. Intel is very
manipulated, but I've avoided that. But you're right. Yes. Cisco looks good.
IBM still looks all right. Old tech, those that have survived and been able to adapt are doing
well. And when we get to that euphoric stage, the tide will lift all the boats. And we're not seeing
that just yet. Wait till Thanksgiving. Everyone in this audience, you know, you go to Thanksgiving
and you'll hear what the topics are. And, you know, I've heard the Bitcoin Thanksgiving
conversations in the past. And, you know, then I heard the bear market of 2022 conversations.
It's the end of the world. And that's kind of when we started turning the corner.
That'll give you a better idea of how euphoric this is. but I still think we are poised to go higher. And I was one
that was skittish August, September, because of seasonal factors thinking, yeah, we're overdue.
We're going to get a three to 5% pullback. I mean, I said five, because three, who goes on
and says, oh, a whole 3% pullback. That's just two bad days. yeah and we and we still may and but if we get a pullback
guess what it's going to be bought unless there's some news event that comes that we're not expecting
and i'm you never can expect what that news event is going to be that's why you never get eaten it's
this market has eaten 75 different types of these news events in all different different ways yeah i got a call from
uh yeah i got a call from a reporter yesterday i think the i think the futures were down pre-market
and we opened lower yesterday i wasn't in front of the tv to watch it and the the question was like
so what do you make about the sell-off this morning i go yeah i we're gonna buy it like that
that's what's gonna happen this isn't the story that's gonna going to buy it. That's what's going to happen. This isn't the
story that's going to take us lower. I don't know what it's going to be. And eventually something
will happen. But this isn't from a cyclical point of view. This is a very strong bull market that's
just starting. It's still early phases. Yes, you have the Broadcoms and the NVIDIAs that have gone on these monster runs.
You have some froth in some of these quantum stocks that have been on fire.
And then we're going to pick a meme stock from time to time.
What, Ford's breaking out?
Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.
This bull market is not just starting.
This bull market has been fully raging now for a while.
Since when?
Since when?
God, now I have to look at his chart well
i can do this off the top of my head sorry uh you know 2022 we were down 20 percent yes so we got a three-year you got a three-year bull market we're into the sweet spot of how long they last between
three and five years 2028 that's where it should end yes no no no it doesn't have to the average is between
three and five years so kind of means that sweet spot yeah but you're forgetting you're forgetting
april man that was a crash we alleviated it man-made or not it's still it's still a sell-off
of material material yeah but he walked it back though it didn't have to no it didn't
april did not end the bull market.
I believe the bull market started when we made new highs in the 2023-2024.
NVIDIA started it, and then we all followed along.
You don't count April.
You don't count April.
I mean, April, see, we can debate that all you want.
It's 20% intraday, 19.8% on a closing basis.
So if you go by the textbook definition, we weren't in a bear market.
I – and that was man-made.
That was – we came back.
The textbook definition is arbitrary.
20% is arbitrary.
So, I mean, look, you can't go by April.
That was self-imposed.
That was shooting yourself in the foot.
And I think you have to go from where we started that descent. Right. I think that's a better level to to judge than where we were at the bottom.
in the third wave and the third wave if you're an elliotician and i'm not but i do know it well
is the longest strongest wave and i think we're in that wave when you look at the cycles of this
market so i'm not really pushing back on the comments saying that this but this bull market's
been going on a while if you say yeah the low if uh you know october 2022 was the beginning of the
bull market and you never know it is because
that day of the low, you want to kill yourself because we're down 20%. And you're like,
oh, wait, this is the beginning of the bull market. So yeah, I think the bull market begins
once you make new highs. And we did that. And now if we can get some, if the small caps on the verge, once they, technically you have,
the risk reward is set up there to get into small caps.
There's just no doubt about it.
And if it cracks 2,400 to Russell or 240 in the IWM, you know, put a stop a little lower
than that.
You don't want to keep it that tight.
Then you get out.
And I've been hurt in that so many times and i hate
them but the process is this is where you buy this is where you buy and you should get a nice
rally in small caps when they go they go quickly so that 2400 level can quickly go to 2700 can
quickly knock on the door of 3000 um but when that goes that's when I'm probably going to be like, all right,
this is when everything is happening and this is when it's all going to go. But I really think
when you put in seasonal factors on top of everything else and the fact that we're climbing
this wall of worry, we are poised for the next four to six months to continue a rather strong
rally. And I don't want to be wrong, but I've been wrong before.
I was wrong saying we were going to pull back.
This is as good of a rant as Stocktoffs gives.
Congratulations.
Somebody finally gave him competition.
That was awesome.
It was definitely a rant.
You have to mention you read a 1077 page research report to do a stock.
Yes. Thank you. I haven't slept in 48 hours. I literally got off. I was at a party last night.
So you're over caffeinated. Listen to me. Oh, you have no idea. I'm on my third large Dunkin'
Donuts. I was at. So I don't know if anyone's familiar with the CMT Association, but we have our annual symposium, and I got to hang out with Katie Stockton
and Mark Newton and Ralph Acampora and all the legends in the technical analysis,
literally up until 11 o'clock Dubai time last night.
I got on the plane as the Yankee game started,
and then the plane didn't have the Yankee game,
and I had no idea what happened until I got home.
Did you first time in Dubai?
Yeah.
Oh my God.
Give us a report.
If Beverly Hills in Las Vegas had a baby and then just put it in an oven, there you go.
It's Dubai.
But it's clean.
It's safe.
It feels like an American city.
It's crazy just how over the top everything is. You go to the Dubai Mall and
they have the fountains of the Bellagio outside, but it's twice the size of the fountains of the
Bellagio. The Berg Khalifa. I only went up. You had different options of how high you could go.
I only went to the 148th floor. I didn't want to go to the 153rd. Like, what's the difference when you're that high up in the air anyway? It was clean. The people were so nice. There's no crime in the city.
People were saying, look, put your phone down here when we, you know, we'll just leave it in
this store and we can go and come back an hour later. It's going to be there. It's just, I
believed it. I wasn't going to put that to the test but it was dubai is
as americanized and westernized as possible it's uh it's crazy just so high end on the luxury side
like everything balenciaga gucci uh you know it was uh it was crazy going through that mall
by the way i'm looking here we're getting a pretty big uh pretty nice little power hour pop on robin hood here moving up an extra percent or two during the
power hour robin hood's a juggernaut that that company oh my god yeah what they what they're
doing is just unbelievable oh and i used to doubt that too i'm like yeah i can't survive no they
brought the kids in the kids stayed and the kids learned. And I know because I have three of them that, you know, got very involved in trading and really want to talk about the market, invest and do it the right way, but also play around a little bit. And I think that's the fun part. That's why I love having a little, you know, money on the side and some of these quantum names or, you know, the meme, I got open door. I bought that for a little
while and, you know, I'm like, you know what, I don't need this aggravation. And I got out, but
yeah, I mean, you got to mix the two. So when I come and talk to you, Evan and everyone here, I
get really excited because I can, I can take the professional cap off a little bit. Um, I don't
see any of my bosses listening on the phone call so it's good
um and it's this is this is my crowd this goes back to my trading days on the floor instead of
you know you know be responsible on you know in front of an audience and do things like that so
but yeah the bubble talk is unbelievable thank you for letting me get involved. We're going to put you into detox mode.
Listen, I just need to go to sleep.
I'm trying to stay up to, like, 8 o'clock, but then the Yankees are on,
so there's no way I'm going to go to bed.
Oh, dude, I'm hating that they move that game to 8 o'clock
because I'm a Yankees fan and I've been miserable.
But I'm like, oh, that means I have to stay up to 11.
God damn it, I get up at 4.30.
That's so fucking hard.
What's the pitching matchup look like? the Red Sox don't have it's rookies versus rookies yeah it's gonna be a bullpen game yeah
it's it's it's gonna be a bullpen game it's good they're gonna both destroy
their bullpens let's get back to the market here all right can I get my two
cents and then I need to jump off I'm mutin talking market all right yes um you know today we hit
the top of the channel on the s p 500 and uh when you look at the charts and i've been putting out
this there when i do my videos i talk about this forever right opened right into it we sold off
there's nothing to be afraid of here we're just at the top of this ascending channel we're in a
raging bull market uh you know i i gave you guys the coin trade yesterday here
i closed it earlier today it's not it's gone even higher now um coin just filled that gap
hood is raging to an all-time high apple is looks so primed to hit that all-time high
nvidia all-time highs amd had a huge move today palantir just a few dollars away from the all-time high. I mean,
you know, this market is just giving trades. You see little names like S-U-N, S-U-O-U-N running
today. Say that three times fast. O-N-D-S moving today. You know, nice move, all-time highs there,
by the way. Tesla, you know, here's my read on tesla it was a great delivery number and then you had
tesla bulls come out and say well it was based upon the um what do you call the tax credits
expiring and all the sales were in the small cars yes that's probably true but you know it's
probably not huge and i think tesla eventually gets bought back but it gave it a great short
to me i did trade that short today by the way I'm quits otherwise the market you know it just feels
fine here and there's nothing here that's going to the markets going to care about so yeah we had a
down day well I'm not even down it we're green again but you know just nothing going on and it nice and easy japanese how's that movie quote
all right we got a quick stock talk play i know he wants to come in here he promised
it's not going to be over a five minute rant i actually can't hear him
i can't hear him either i can't hear him either i can't hear him either. I can't hear him either.
I can't hear him either.
Maybe it's like I can come down.
Oh, and Evan rubbed too.
Classic.
It's like Evan's back.
Alright, one second. Stand by.
Technical difficulties.
There we go.
It was me.
No, it wasn't you, Evan.
Hold on, I'm bringing him back up. We'll just...
Hold it in there.
Stocktalk, take that co-host so you can hear me.
Wow, Twitter's trying to stop me.
Twitter's trying to stop me twitter's trying to stop me
they knew this was going to be an epic one i was like dude dude we just had a rant so we're
going to do back-to-back rants i love this yeah i mean this one's not going to be less
ranty and much more specific on an individual stock basis because there's a new position today
uh for me and you guys know i like to go over that when i open a new position
i'm not a high turnover trader i don't day trade i don't get in and out of names uh i do my work
and i know what i own and i share that stuff with you guys a lot of you ask me after the stocks have
doubled if it's too late to buy them but you know for those of you that pay attention on these
spaces when i go over individual smid cap stocks i'm usually going over stocks that aren't talked about a lot eventually they are right when net when i
talked about nebius at 23 nobody was talking about it now at 125 everybody is same thing with credo
same thing with so many of the picks that i've talked about this year all right stuff's gonna
be ribbing one and amcor are gonna be uh two of those similar ones so i'm gonna lead this in with
a little bit of a
background about Amcor for those that missed that two weeks ago, because this is part of the same
thematic basket. So for those of you that have listened to the show for years, you guys know
that I run a portfolio that is a theme-based portfolio. I generally identify themes, very
specific themes, not things like the nuclear industry or, you know, retail or, you know, healthcare. No,
very specific things that are happening from a policy standpoint or from a secular standpoint
that I want exposure to. And then I find what are, in my view, the best pure play mid cap
stocks with exposure, not small caps, not large caps, but mid caps. Now, occasionally, do I go out of that range?
Yeah, occasionally, do I go a little bit below $2 billion or a little bit above $10 billion?
Yeah, but that general range of market caps is what I look at.
That's my strategy 101 in the bare bones basics.
Now, when I open a high conviction position, generally, I like to pair that with complementary positions.
So two weeks ago, I shared Amcor with you guys at 24.
That stock is almost 30 now.
It's up 25%.
Keep in mind, this isn't a meme stock.
This isn't a zero revenue stock.
This is a stock doing its market cap in revenue and is a critical player in the U.S. supply chain for semiconductors.
And Amcor was a name that, again, no one was talking about on Twitter, not a soul.
You can search the ticker before I shared that thesis. And the thesis around Amcor is quite
simple. It's associated with the U.S. reshoring effort around semiconductors. There is a present
and conscious effort by this administration, whether possible or not, to bring semiconductors
back to the United States. Now, for people who understand the industry, you know one thing is true.
Bringing fabs, cutting-edge fabs in volume to the United States is going to take a long time.
And so my decision to buy Amcor a few weeks ago was pretty simple.
Amcor is the biggest packaging player in the United States, OSAT, Outsource Semiconductor Assembly and Testing.
in the United States, OSAT, Outsource Semiconductor Assembly and Testing. When chip volume goes up
in a region, the immediate and direct beneficiary are the packaging partners because they are at the
end of the supply chain. They are packaging the chips for use after they have been fabricated.
Okay. So to me, the upside for Amcor and the upside case is pretty simple. They have a Peoria
facility coming online in 2028. Apple is directly invested in that facility. Apple has signed ink on paper to be
the biggest contractor in that facility. Keep in mind, Amcor was a 6 billion market cap just two
weeks ago and still is only 20% higher than that. But Apple has backed that facility. TSM is
invested in that facility. TSM is helping build that facility. It's going to be the biggest
packaging plant in the United States that's ever been built, and it's going to be owned by Amcor in partnership with Apple.
Now, that plant is the thesis behind the Amcor position,
and that plant's relation to the semiconductor reshoring effort is the thesis behind Amcor.
But there are more beneficiaries than just Amcor,
because the thesis you have to think about here is,
if you are a
company who has promised this administration that you will make chips in the United States,
that is a nuanced promise, right? The same way that all these companies who have promised the
Trump administration were going to bring automobile manufacturing back to the United States,
that's a nuanced promise. Why is it nuanced? Because they know they can't do it tomorrow,
right? No one's a fucking idiot. You can't reshore this stuff overnight. So even the
people who do have the genuine intention of reshoring, there are intermediary steps to full
reshoring. That shouldn't astonish anyone. You don't need to know anything about the industry
to understand that concept. It's simple. Reshoring doesn't happen immediately. Therefore, there are intermediary industry beneficiaries before complete reshoring
happens. And many of those beneficiaries continue to benefit even after the reshoring occurs.
Now, how do you find those guys? Well, for Amcor, what I did was I looked for
key supply chain partners that were U.S. based that had direct relationships to two things,
the growth of the AI chip business and also the U.S. reshoring effort. So not one or the other,
not like they're exposed to the growth of AI chips, but they're not exposed to U.S. reshoring.
They had to be exposed to both. And I found a list of 12 candidates that were smid caps that
fit that description. And after four and a half weeks of research, I decided on Amcor and took a high conviction position. And the stock has performed very well.
And I haven't sold a single share. And I think it'll continue to perform well.
But I want to pair it with something else. And so last night, and this is what Brian was referring
to the kind of jokingly, me and Evan were kind of joking last night when he posted BM&R.
but I was researching last night, pretty deeply finishing my research.
But I was researching last night pretty deeply finishing my research.
I like to read things that people don't read. I've said this often, but to me, the alpha in
mid caps and the reason, I mean, I just had a 300% year to date return this year. That's after
posting a 260% year to date return last year. And keep in mind, I share my positions and my
weighting with thousands of people. So it's not just performance for the sake of performance.
Like I tell people exactly what I'm doing and then do it.
And in that meanwhile, all I have done is look for these types of plays,
mid-caps that are directly thematically relevant.
And so I like to look at things that people don't read.
I don't want to read the same news that everyone reads.
Like, yeah, I have a news feed that everyone reads.
And I post some of the stuff from that news feed this morning too.
And I know there's thousands of other people reading that newsfeed,
but that's not where the alpha is generated. So I try to find sources of information that have been compiled professionally that may be publicly available, but are not often thought of as valuable
sources. One of those sources, and I'm actually providing quite an
insight here in my opinion because I know a lot of people do not look at this
okay but I'm going to share this with you beautiful people in stocks and
vision of living to listening to for years there is a bureau under the
Department of Commerce called the Bureau of Industry and Security I bet you most
people in America don't even know what the fuck that is I bet you if you went
on the street and you asked people what is the Bureau of Industry and Security they'd be like I don't even know what that is that is. I bet you if you went on the street and you ask people, what is the Bureau of Industry and Security? They'd be like, I don't even know what that is.
But I do. And I've been reading their reports for years. And I've generated a lot of alpha
from Bureau of Industry and Security reports. What they do is they do internal analysis and
surveys on U.S.-based businesses. And they do assessments of the whole domestic industry.
OK, you cannot get like even AI, as good as it is, cannot compile information.
The way that these guys do in the level of detail that they do, these guys have access
to talk to the CEOs of every company in the U.S. supply chain, ask them specific questions,
of every company in the U.S. supply chain, ask them specific questions, get specific answers,
and then compile these, in my view, very sophisticated but also simply worded
computes of the U.S. semiconductor industry. So anyway, the new position is PLAB, ticker P-L-A-B. It is, the actual name of the company is Photronics.
Now, this is a company that does something called photomasking.
So in this report that I read last night,
Amcor was mentioned several times,
which was great confirmation bias
because I found this report after I opened the Amcor position.
I didn't even know this report existed. So I was reading it last night. I found Amcor mentioned like seven times.
And I was like, that's amazing because that was good confirmation bias for you. But I was like,
who else is mentioned? And a lot of names are mentioned. I mean, they mentioned basically
every U.S. semiconductor company in this report. Like everyone who has a U.S. headquartered office
who is like U.S.-based, native U.S. companies,
they have all of them on there.
So there were a lot of companies to go through, and it took me a long time.
But there were a lot of charts to go through.
I went through every chart, too, of every one of those stocks.
But I looked at revenue projections.
I looked at earnings estimates.
I looked at consolidation of revenue on a 10-year basis for 25 different stocks. I looked at a lot of data. And I read pretty much the entire report. At first, I had AI summarized it for me, and I wasn't satisfied with the details. So I read pretty much the entire report.
And my conclusion was that we had an even more sparse semiconductor supply chain than I assumed we did.
My conclusion from that report.
And this report was written in December of 2023.
So it's not new.
But it is detailed.
And it identifies a lot of the problems that are trying to be addressed today by the reshoring effort.
It identifies a lot of the problems that are trying to be addressed today by the reshoring effort.
And what it sort of suggests is that the United States has to leverage the parts of the supply chain that we already have competitive exposure to.
And the only two areas, in my view, that we're truly competitive in are in packaging with Amcor and in photo
masking now what is photo masking what are photo masks I should say is a better
way to put it people who don't know so I could I
aren't gonna really understand this but the simplest way to put it is they are
the printing blueprints for chips when you're mass printing chips and you want
a low error rate you need very very specific, like, again,
this is really layman's terminology,
but I'm trying to make it understandable to the public.
Think of it as a cookie cutter, right?
Like when you don't,
you're trying to make a bunch of cookies that are star shaped,
you're not going to fucking take a knife and, you know,
so you get a cookie cutter, right?
And it's the same principle,
except in a much,
much more complicated and sophisticated process of photomasks.
Now, photomasks, just like packaging, are done internally at many of the big fabricators.
So when TSM wants to build a two nanometer chip, they're not going to use a third party photomask.
cutting edge chip, they're not going to use a third party for the mask. They're not going to go
to P-Lab, to Photronics and say, build us a mask for this because it's extremely sensitive and
proprietary technology, right? But what happens when a chip becomes second gen? Well, now you
don't want to photo mask in house for that chip because you're focused on your cutting edge chip.
So what do you do? Well, you push the photo masking for the three nanometer and four nanometer
chips, et cetera, out to a third party partner. And the only competitive
player in that industry in the United States is PLAB, is Photronics. And they're trading at 1.6X
sales, 11 PE. Yeah, growth is flat, but look at the revenue consolidation. In my view, the revenue
consolidation to me clearly shows that it looks like they're ready for a next leg up in revenue. And if this U.S. semiconductor reshoring effort is successful, yes, Amcor is going to be a huge beneficiary. That's my core position on the thesis. But I believe P-Lab will also be a beneficiary because they are a U-based company. And when you look at the photo mask, the third-party photo mask global market, okay?
Three companies control 70% of that market.
And P-Lab is one of them.
And it trades at 1.5 billion market cap
at 1.6X sales at 11PE
with blue chip partners,
partnerships with everybody in the industry.
The same way that Amcor traded at 1X sales two weeks ago.
And now it's trading at 1.2X sales, still very cheap. And, you know, 11 or 12p or whatever, or 19p,
actually, for Amcor, a little bit higher. But, you know, these are reasonably priced names that
have direct thematic relevance. They are US-based semiconductor supply chain names, and they're not
fabs. So you don't have to compete with TSM. And they're fabs. So you don't have to compete with TSM and they're not designers.
So you don't have to compete with Nvidia like Nvidia and TSM keep winning.
They need supply chains in the U S to appease the industry in the meanwhile.
And then Amcor and P lab are direct winners of that.
Like, I just don't see a scenario where that doesn't happen, even if it's
incremental, right?
Even if the benefit of demand is incremental or capacity
expansion like how do they not win there like if if your assumption is that tsmc arizona gets built
which seems damn likely at this point like it's way ahead of progress if your assumption is that
tsmc arizona gets built successfully and continues to get expanded and more and more semiconductor
business comes to the united states for the sake of this America first policy.
Why wouldn't U.S.-based semiconductor mid-caps with a critical supply chain role and no domestic competitors, why wouldn't they grow?
Like they're in a bottleneck.
P-Labs at the top of the supply chain making the photo masks.
Amcor's at the bottom of the supply chain making the packaging.
If you're making chips in the States, you've got to go through those guys.
So why are the stocks trading at 1 to 1.5x?
This is nonsensical.
It's nonsensical.
Hey, Stock Talk, why is Photronics not growing revenue right now?
They're in revenue consolidation period because the domestic U.S. business has not been where the chip growth focus has been.
It's been in Taiwan, right?
Because that's where the chips are made.
And my point is, is that if you believe that's inflecting, which, again, even if you don't think
the semiconductor business is coming back to the United States at full scale, even if you believe
it's coming back at 20% scale, that's a lot of capital. That's a lot of money a lot that's the tunes of hundreds of billions of dollars a year
that's even if you say 10 right like whatever you believe if you believe that even incrementally
there is going to be a shift to chip manufacturing away from taiwan and into the united states
then why are like why are these stocks trading the way they are they will see revenue growth
and they will see capacity expansion, right?
Like Amcor is the same thing.
People ask me this about Amcor two weeks ago when it was 30% lower or 25% lower or whatever it was.
People are like, well, revenue growth is flat.
Why do you think it's a good trade?
The market's clearly seeing why. Because they know when that Peoria plant opens in 2028, what do you think is going to happen to the revenue?
The revenue is going to stay flat with Apple as their biggest customer?
Of course not.
Of course not. The revenue is going to graduate. And Apple as their biggest customer. Of course not. Of course not.
The revenue is going to graduate.
And that's what happens with these companies.
Semi-supply chain companies are cyclical by their nature, right?
The orders are bulky.
They're cyclical by their nature.
So you're not going to see revenue go up every year.
These guys aren't like lean, small-cap growth companies.
They are companies that benefit from these enormous secular
trends. And you don't see the benefit in the stock or in the quarterly performance in two or three
quarters. You notice it six or seven quarters later when the company posts 116% beat on revenue
and they go, oh yeah, we expect this to continue because we signed a new partner and our capacity
has expanded. And then the stock is gone and never comes back. You know, so I try to get ahead of those potential moments. And in my opinion,
well before that happens, the market will realize the importance of US critical supply chain
partners far before then. And they'll trade at a higher premium without the growth.
Like even without the growth, they should be trading at a higher premium. These stocks should not be trading at one to 1.5x sales. Look at their peers. Some of their peers who are
not even growing, whose businesses are shrinking. Your TTM revenues down 15, 20% are trading at 10,
12x sales. Backtalk. Can you explain, sorry, one more time. Explain to me exactly what they do.
So they make photo masks, which are like the cookie cutters for high design chips.
They are, it's like where the light and the decisions are projected through the photo masks to cut these chips.
Yeah.
Yeah.
It's the very top end of the semiconductor supply chain.
Right?
It is involved in the pre-chip
fabrication process.
And so...
So they're making the machines that are making the chips.
No, they're not making the machines.
They're making the photomass.
They're a product in the chip.
Think of them as, again, to simplify it,
think of them as...
But the photomass goes
into
Micron's machine is what you're saying.
Or sorry, ASML's machine.
Yeah, I don't know how that exact interchange works.
I don't know if they like – I'm not a semiconductor manufacturer.
But in the industry supply chain process, it is these small, extremely high revenue, by the way.
I mean they do multiple billion dollars in revenue.
These extremely small
basically slips think of them as light like light slips that have little perforations in them okay
and they're like the shape of what the chip should be cut so that you can cut many chips using that
photomask you know i'm saying yeah yeah there's no there's some actually really good of those like
short form videos going yeah you can watch youtube videos. People want to do it, type in photo mass into YouTube and there'll be a lithography video
that will show you all the, like, it's a very complicated process.
I'm not, I'm a, you know, I'm an investor, not a supply, a semiconductor builder, but
I know the supply chain well.
And that's, what's important here is like, do you recognize the bottlenecks in the domestic
Do you recognize the bottlenecks in the domestic supply chain?
supply chain?
Because if there is reshoring, the first impact will be a swelling of the domestic bottlenecks, right?
That's, again, all of my thesis stuff is very logical and it should be easy to follow my logic here, my reasoning.
When you have a domestic industry that is young and immature, our
semiconductor industry is immature. We do, we have 50% of global revenue, but it's primarily
focused in design, right? And lower tier manufacturing, the cutting edge stuff,
the highly mature stuff is all in Taiwan, right? And we're trying to change that. We're trying to
bring it back to Arizona, right? If that is successful in any way,
and the volume of chip production goes up in the United States, the bottlenecks get swelled,
right? That's logic 101, not even business 101. So if the bottlenecks get swelled, who benefits
from that? The bottleneck players. And there's only two, in my view, two, maybe four, but not
in this area of the supply chain, bottleneck players in the
United States that are a sub 10 billion market cap. Everything else, Micron, all these names are
huge companies now, right? Because why? Because everyone sees this trend coming and you've had
the AI tailwind that have also driven these stocks higher, right? And they're seeing immediate
benefit. Why? Because they're the industry leaders. They're selling all over the world.
Their revenue is not reflective of domestic policy efforts. In fact, you can make the
argument that NVIDIA has actually seen downside from domestic policy efforts, right? To shut them
off from China. So it's not like domestic policy efforts are serving as tailwinds for Nvidia and these big guys.
The big guys are winning because the AI demand is so insatiable.
That's why they're winning.
They're not winning because of the government,
but the mid cap guys,
they have a unique opportunity to benefit more from government policy
initiative.
Right.
So he's saying they swapped the masks out
that's how they get the pattern on the chips
so it's not just like when they sell
one machine
it sounds like they can sell multiple chips
but I know but it sounds like they actually
change those slips in and out
so maybe they sell multiple per machine
it's not like it's one off
you don't just sell one slip
you meant that from a volume standpoint
yes you're correct that was one thing I was wondering you didn't want't just sell one slip yeah yeah yes you meant that from a volume standpoint yes yes yes you're correct yes that was one thing i was wondering i was thinking you wouldn't sell
many of these yeah yeah no no you're right they stopped but i mean evan that's why they're doing
billions of dollars in revenue like this isn't a shit code right like it's not like a like it's
trading at 11 p doing billions of dollars in revenue like they're not this is an unreasonably
priced company right and the thing is is that they they're in unique position, not because they don't have any competitors.
They do have global competitors, but they don't have any legitimate domestic competitors. Neither of them do. Amcor or PLAP.
you know, interesting to me. And that's what makes it unique is this idea that you can,
you know, you can find parts of the American supply chain that may not be ready to be the
big boys yet, but they sure as hell should not be. I don't even know what the market cap or P-Lab
is today. Like one point to me, that just does not make sense. It doesn't compute in my head.
And usually when that happens, I'm onto something. And usually when that happens, I on to something and usually when that happens i buy
something and you know eventually an analyst upgrades it or whatever but i this one scratched
my itch sometimes last night when i was reading this name kept like it only popped up in the
report once by the way photronics was only mentioned in 170 pages once amcor was mentioned
multiple times global foundries was mentioned multiple times micron was mentioned multiple times bunch of names are mentioned all the time but um
For chargers only mentioned once what big what mega cap name in there were you like? All right?
Pleasantly surprised for how it goes. I know that's not what you thought their insights on micron was really good because of how well
Microns done, you know, and that report came out two years ago or end of 23
Right, so from that perspective you read that report. out two years ago, or end of 23. So from that perspective,
you've read that report. I didn't read it in end of 23. I wish I had. A lot of the stocks talked
about it. And they weren't even, keep in mind, this isn't a report about stocks. This is a report
from the Bureau of Industry and Security talking about our semiconductor industry, saying how
vulnerable it is or how unvulnerable it is. They're talking about the strengths and weaknesses
in American semiconductor. This is a really, really insightful piece of paper. Anybody can
go look it up. It's on their website, Bureau of Industry and Security website. You can go look it
up. December 2023, assessment on the microelectronics industry in the United States.
But this is how you learn. A lot of times people hear me talk about these theses and they're like,
oh, dude, where did you learn about semiconductors like did you used to work at semiconductors i was like no dude
i mean i literally was in medical school i dropped out of my third year medical school to trade stocks
and that's it i just learned this stuff because i read and i try to understand it the reason i'm
able to hold these stocks like centrist you know which i still haven't sold and it's a triple since
me okay or nebius which i still haven't sold or robin hood triple since May. Okay. Or Nebius, which I still haven't sold or Robinhood, which is still haven't sold or Kratos. The reason I can hold these stocks when they 5X,
6X and the technical guys are selling them after 20 or 30% move, because I know the companies.
Like I understand the relative valuation. When I see them go up higher, I'm like, yeah,
is it a little stretch, but it's still justifiable. This is why.
The guy who's just looking at the charter, the guy who's just looking at the balance sheet can't tell you that. Right. And the mid caps, you can front run a lot of shit
because there's not eyes on them
like there are for large caps.
Like every Wall Street analyst in the world
is not looking at P-Lab or Amcor.
In fact, most of them don't even cover those stocks.
So when something happens
or is developing within those companies,
it's much more likely to go under the radar
when Wall Street's not exposing it
or somebody on Twitter's not exposing it.
So that's why this sort of research matters in my opinion to be able to find these stocks because otherwise what's going to happen is that you're going to be trapped in this
game of like i always say just chasing the next hot thing you'll never really understand what you
own you'll kind of just be like i'm just in this because these stocks look good man like the theme
like this i hear this all the time on Twitter
from smart people, by the way, like, yeah, the charts on this theme look good. Theme looks good.
You know, I'm going to get long on this theme and like, okay, yeah, let's try. Maybe the charts
look good and they do pop. And like, maybe that theme ends up going to be a five-year robust theme
in the market, right? If you don't understand the theme, you're not going to hold through that, right?
You're going to sell on the first leg and be like,
oh, I'm not going to buy back, dude.
It's twice where I thought it was.
And that's 6x where you thought it was.
That's 10x where you thought it was.
And you're like, oh my God, I missed this enormous trade
because I bought a bunch of stocks.
I had no clue about anything about them,
but I just knew the charts looked good.
And, you know, so I bought them for a one week swing trade
and they ended up being the biggest theme
of the entire market for 10 years.
Like that would suck. Right. That feeling sucks. Yeah.
I know people are like, oh, if you make a profit, it doesn't matter.
I don't know about that.
If you have incredible size in a position and you sell it for 20 percent and it 10 X's, that is a shitty feeling.
I don't care what anyone says.
And it's a shitty feeling for a reason, because it is a reflection that you didn't really understand what you were holding.
Right. That you were purely holding it for a setup or for a low P ratio or because your friend mentioned it.
That's not a recipe for success. You're not going to super perform the markets doing that.
And like people are wondering, oh, do your portfolio? Your portfolio is a 200 percent performance like six weeks ago.
You're 300 percent now. That's smart stock picking.
I mean, look at the names I talk about.
D-Pro, which I talked about just the last three days,
is up another 10% today.
When I mentioned D-Pro on this basis to you guys
on September 18th was the day I mentioned this
on this basis.
Go listen to the recording.
I talked about it for 20 minutes.
The only small cap stock I've ever mentioned.
It's doubled in 10 sessions since September 18th.
Nebius, up another 9% today.
Digital Ocean, which is one of my nearer positions, up 8% today.
Energy Fuels, up 7% today.
Keep in mind, Energy Fuels just in an offering two days ago for $550 million.
I posted on the Discord the day of the offering.
I said, stupid offer.
I mean, I said, smart offering.
I like what they're using it for.
Stupid reaction.
Let the panic end sell.
The stock not only got bought up immediately after,
but it was up 8% today, you know, rolling back into the highs because I understand the stock.
I saw the offering and I was like, perfect. They're spending the money on the right stuff.
The stock's, this dip's going to get bought up. I literally posted that in discord two days ago.
The stock was red for both of those days. And look at it today. It's up 8%, right? P lab. I mean,
yeah, just opened it this morning but a nice day
today five and a half percent centrist energy five up another five percent robin it like i mean yeah
it was a great day in the market everything was up but this isn't it's not just today that we've
been doing this you guys have been seeing i've been posting portfolio updates all year and the
last thing i want to say is that is that i got a comment today and somebody said why do you only
post your portfolio updates when you're down?
Or sorry, when you're up.
That's not true.
I've been posting portfolio updates regularly
since the beginning of 2024.
And I even posted them this year in April
when my portfolio was red on the year.
Were there anyone in the comments then saying,
oh, this guy's only posting his portfolio when it's up?
No, it's for the sake of transparency. Is it nice to be able to flex that? Yeah, it's great. I'm proud of it. But
that's not the purpose. The purpose is actually showing you guys that I'm not just talking out
of my ass when I get up here for two hours, that I actually do what I say I do and that the
performance proves it. So that's why I share it. Not because it's really good performance. It is
really good performance, but is really good performance.
But I shared it in April when I was down 4% as well.
Go, you can find the post.
I talked about why I was down 4%, what my hedges were.
I'm talking detail.
I posted like a three paragraph post with a screenshot of me being down 4%.
You think that's nice to admit?
But look at the portfolio now.
It's up 300% on the year from the lows.
So be transparent.
Be honest.
Share your ideas honestly.
I come up here and talk about stocks with conviction all the time.
Do they all go up?
Lately, yeah.
But not always.
Earlier in the year, there were ideas I shared that didn't do well.
That's fine.
You know, but just be honest about your ideas.
Share what you think.
Share what you have conviction.
Put your money where your mouth is and see what the results are.
I think they'll be pretty good because you tend to get rewarded
for that sort of straight-up transparency on Twitter and in life.
All right, there we go.
It was a good new recap on a new stock, new category.
I enjoyed that part.
We tailed off a little bit towards the end, but it was good.
It was good.
We got them in a little bit. We'll, but it was good. It was good. We got them in a little bit.
We'll see.
We'll come back to this one.
We'll circle back around these stocks as well.
We did hit the market close there.
S&P 500 closed the day up a tiny bit,
but it was enough to get some new all-time highs in there.
So good for the S&P 500.
It counts as another day there.
Not much other stuff crossing in the after hours, though.
Wolfie, do we still have you?
What's up, dude?
How are you doing, sir?
First of all, I'm curious if you have any thoughts on the reshoring theme
Stock Talk was talking about, his plays so in p lab yeah so he's actually
uh that stock's the stock i've owned since 2022 um it's a good stock but i would i would say that
there's a couple the better analogy you could have given you is it's like a stencil so when
you stencil stuff you have like a sheet that kind of goes over it thank you much yeah so that's a
better analogy that was actually the one i used in my original write-up in Discord,
but I forgot what I had said.
Okay, there you go.
That's a better analogy.
There you go.
It's a stencil.
So that's a better way to explain to people who don't understand.
There's a couple of like, I don't want to say problems,
any issues, I put them in quotation marks.
Like I'm not, it's a good company.
So I'm not like, it's run pretty well.
But there's a couple of things to like actually consider. it's a high capex business because you got to change things uh pretty good
pretty you know pretty consistently as chips kind of evolve and then like with their biggest there's
a couple of like really big bottleneck things to consider so if they if these types of things
change then it will work but uh part of the reason
that i've caught it uh pretty significantly over the last year or so is you know they didn't get
to first of all they when they get they get a couple customers those those customers are like
their main their main sources of revenue so they kind of like push them around a little bit tsmc
being uh the main one that kind of does that.
But then outside of that,
the five nanometer and three nanometer,
which is like the AI stuff,
those are a lot more complex.
And a lot of these companies have defaulted to doing,
you know,
the lithography part and the Photronics part like in-house to kind of like
offset costs.
So those are like the two major headwinds to really consider and then they've got like a
flat panel business that they are still hanging on to without really making you
know real headwind into some of the competitors and one of the competitors
corning they haven't made like real inroads there so in my opinion they
should just kind of cut that and really focus on something else um but that's kind of like the pushback i'd give but
yeah i mean if if if the tam expands which it should expand then you know everything
across the board should expand so yeah that's that's really is that is that like i think
there's an unavoidable capacity and TAM expansion coming.
Like, unavoidable.
Like, I don't even think they can run away from it if they wanted to.
That's kind of how, like, when I look for thematic opportunities, I want them to force the stocks higher.
You know?
I don't even want management to be able to mess up.
You know? I want the thematic opportunities to be so strong that it's almost impossible to impossible to mess up now it's never impossible all right
why aren't you an open door yeah i don't the housing theme is a complicated one at a time
i think and i think i actually think that what kaz is doing there is he's actually moving pretty
quickly so it's actually impressive but i mean i don't know it's a it's a wild it's a wild no i'm kidding let's get let's get back i don't i don't like those i don't buy those stocks, I don't know. It's a wild... It's a wild story. No, I'm kidding. Let's get back.
I don't buy those stocks.
I don't buy meme stocks.
I guess maybe it's not a meme stock.
I don't know. I don't want to dismiss it as a meme stock.
But I don't buy stocks that
everyone on Twitter posts about every day.
And some of my positions
become stocks like that over time.
And that's okay
if they grow into a name that everyone ends up
talking about i'm fine with that right like in 2015 2016 there wasn't this big tesla fan base
on twitter like when i bought that stock and now there is you know and nebius there wasn't this big
fan base and now there is and kratos there wasn't this big fan base and now there is and like so
when there becomes a big fan base i'm like okay that's fine there's more people talking about it
and i own it lower but i start to become less interested in accumulating those stocks.
Like one thing a lot of people will tell you who follow me in our community is I don't really accumulate core positions I've owned for a long time.
Like I let them ride.
I don't sell them.
Like I haven't sold any Robinhood, but I haven't added any either at this crisis.
Right.
So, yeah, that's important.
Open door is a turnaround.
I would say more so that even than a meme stock, I mean, the, the core fundamental problem
for open door right now is that the gross profits, the, the minuscule gross profits
they make on flipping houses isn't an ever to, isn't enough to cover overhead.
So they're obviously trying to figure out ways to make the business like less capital
intensive, try to get revenues in other areas besides home flipping.
But like still the core business is home flipping and like book value keeps deteriorating.
And like you don't have, I mean, you just don't have that great of a business attached
to it right now.
So it's like, it's still a very speculative bet on like what it could be in five or 10
years.
Yeah.
All right.
Let's get back to the P lab.
I'm more interested in that one,
honestly.
so yeah.
you know,
there's a couple of things just like,
the segment that they kind of focus on isn't,
it doesn't move as fast.
It's like, it's like a more mature segment.
So there's that, that to consider.
And then the, the, the real major, major one that kind of like stopped them, uh, from
really, from really growing was, and I guess this is his thesis.
So we'll see flip coin, but, um, they were, you you know a lot of their growth or a sizable portion of their
growth was coming from you know international side china specifically but our export controls um
you know kind of put kind of put things in limbo for them and it limits how much
you know how much work they could they could do in that space so that's those are like the
the overarching things that i'd say um you know it's a solid company like i said i've owned it from
you know a couple years now uh it's moved pretty nicely i i did think that at one point you know
maybe maybe he hits the sweet spot and this is where it happens but when i first bought it i
thought it could do you know what some of these other smaller,
you know, smaller picks and shovels type names have done. So, you know, it's worked,
it's worked nicely. I'm not going to complain. It's like a hundred percent or so, but,
you know, from here, I think if, if the onshoring happens, if they're able to,
if they're able to kind of get a couple of more customers, so they're not pushed around
on pricing a little bit, I think that'll work out for them.
But yeah, no, outside of that, I'm happy to continue with other stuff if you want.
Yeah, I mean, I can provide more detail on the thesis if you want.
I don't know if you're asking Wolfie or me, but...
Yeah, keep it on this topic, and then I'm good to move around to some other stuff with Wolfie and then honestly we got more time to for any round after that
you any retorts to that stock talk or you want to I mean everything is really
making an argument he owns the stock I mean yeah you know there's the I'm just
I'm just giving the things to consider for the audience who are The things the things that consider
Yeah, the things the things to consider for like exactly like these are the things that will frustrate you, right?
Like the business will be solid but you know, it's the the fat business domestically is dominated by TMC and Intel
And they've decided that hey, we dominate if you want in on this
We're gonna undercut your prices.
That's one thing to consider.
China restrictions, that slows their international exposure.
That's another thing.
So these are just things to consider
and what you would want to see happen.
Do they source their materials in the US?
A couple of things I just want to specifically mention
to two things.
First of all, the China exposure.
Second of all, the sort of static nature of the business. So first of all, the China second of all the um the sort of static nature of the
business so first of all the china exposure is not a risk to them because again as i mentioned
earlier third-party photo masking is not used for cutting-edge chips okay so like when taiwan's
making a two nanometer chip they are not going to photronics it would it wouldn't be it wouldn't be
a 1.5 billion market cap if they if taiwanemi was going to them for the most cutting edge chips, right?
So cutting edge chips from everyone, all the facts, are done in-house, period.
Everything, front to back.
Photo mask, all the way down.
And many times, even packaging.
They don't even want to go to no-sav for packaging because everything about the chip is so proprietary.
They want everything done in-house, okay?
And TSM operates that way for the most cutting edge stuff.
So that's the first point. So the thesis is not And TSM operates that way for the most cutting edge stuff. So that's the first point.
So the thesis is not that Photronics is going to make the most cutting edge chips.
The thesis is that Photronics is going to make the other chips.
Because most of the volume is not in, like most of the volume that we talk about from the hyperscaler guys who are trying to get the best shit is from there.
But all of the other volume is still in those second gen chips, in those three nanometers and four nanometer chips.
And by the way, those chips are useful for a variety of fast growing applications like aerospace and defense.
And it's not just data center growth, right?
Everything digital is growing.
Everything digital needs chips.
Like the chip trade is not a cyclical trade anymore.
In the last five years, the chip trade became a very much secular trade because of AI.
And I think it will remain one.
Like chip growth is not going anywhere.
It is going to be very, very explosive, the growth in the chip industry.
And so that's point one, that chips are continuing to grow.
But on the foreign exposure side, they don't have any risk because they're not in cutting edge chips.
And all the foreign export controls are only on the most cutting edge chips.
So that's point one. Point two on the risk of the complacency of the business.
The entire thesis is around the business awakening in the reshoring effort.
So, yeah, the business has been a little stale and the business has not grown.
Yeah, that's the,
so I'm just going to dumb it down.
so his thesis is basically the same thesis that I had.
I'm not the same,
but similar thesis that I had back in July when I was saying that I was going
along Intel,
which is when we're negotiating,
you know,
with China about,
you know,
chips and import controls and doing all that stuff.
We're going to do tariffs. We're going to leverage the chip thing. The thing that most people kind of
just like don't consider is all of everything now has a chip in it. Right. And so the U.S.
is really strong with the three and five nanometer stuff and the AI and like cutting edge and all
that stuff. But we've kind of just let other people specific or other
countries specifically china take over the shit side this is what i like to call it sorry i'm
going to assume after five o'clock it's not a family show but uh we just kind of we just kind
of like let other people take the crappy stuff and china had it and so i think the the thesis i had
in part first of all i thought that the United States would
take like an actual active role in Intel.
That worked out.
But the reason behind it was I felt that we were going to make a real push to kind of
onshore a lot of other types of chip, which would only give us more bargaining power and
more leverage.
And I think that's the same kind of thesis he's kind of going for.
And if that happens and, and these are like the more mature, you know,
the more mature technological segment, which is kind of what's capped their growth.
But if we decide that we're going to just F it, you know,
we're just going to do everything. Then I think, yeah,
then the entire TAM expands and then you're going to need it.
And they already have the relationships in-house with some of the other guys.
And that's where it will grow.
My point to bringing up the GeoPol stuff and all that stuff was, you know, initially a few years ago when they were expanding their business,
one of the levers that I remember the management was talking about was, you know, doing the international stuff. And now that's like hands off, like you don't want to,
especially for a company this size with some of these small companies. I think StockDoc said it
before on here, the benefit of these small companies is if you get a contract from one
of these bigger players, or the government or the DOD or whatever, that contract might not mean a lot to those bigger players,
but it'll mean a shit ton to you, but that's a double-edged sword, right?
So if you, if you get a, if you get a contract from, you know,
one of these bigger players, it's international, for example,
I'm just playing devil's Africa here. And then, you know, that,
that international rule has changed because the Trump administration wants to onshore stuff.
Well, now that's really crippled your business.
So I think they've done a good job not pursuing that, kind of like getting ahead of themselves.
But the bet here is just that we bring onshore for everything, and then everything just kind of grows from there.
If I'm wrong, that's my understanding.
You're pretty much generally on.
I'll be a little bit more specific as to where my thesis was sort of born.
And this applies to Amcor, and it also applies to P-Lab today.
In fact, it also applies to my centrist position.
This is sort of a big theme in my portfolio.
And it's not even a theme.
It's a thing that happened that made me start thinking, and this is the conclusion I came to. So some of you might remember, and I've referenced this before, Trump had a meeting with Apple.
And prior to the meeting, Trump announced on his Twitter and stuff that Apple was going to be making phones in the United States. I'm sure you guys remember this because it was a widely debated
thing on Twitter. I don't even say debated, but widely memed thing on Twitter. And people were
like, oh my God, an iPhone's going to cost $5,000. And Dan Ives wrote a report on it. And you guys
remember that, right? Anyway, about three weeks after that, Trump invited Cook to the White House
and had a big media thing, a big announcement
at the White House tomorrow.
If you watched it, I watched it in full,
you watched it carefully,
all that was said
really was that Apple's going to try to move
manufacturing here, try to move
chip manufacturing here especially,
and also they're going to make glass
in here.
And when he said that, Trump looked at the camera and he was like, really pumped up about it.
He's like, yeah, we're going to make the glass for the iPhones here over time.
And everyone was like really excited about it.
I thought about it and I was like, the fuck?
Like, that's it?
They're going to make the glass here and that's going to appease the administration?
And then I really thought about it and I was like, wait a second, that's the only way to do this.
Like if you are a company and you want to appease the White House, I mentioned this earlier with,
in part with the thesis, you have a few options. Either bring the whole factory here right away,
which is impossible, or you find ways to make it look like you are making the thing in America that can't be made in America.
And if you're in the semiconductor business, there's two really easy ways to do that.
We're outsourcing parts of the process.
And what are the two, in my view, the only two viable places that you can outsource in the United States,
part of the supply chain, photo masking and packaging.
Those are easy to outsource.
You can go to these guys and be like, look, we can't build the whole chip there.
You know we can't build the whole chip there.
We know we can't build the whole chip there.
But the White House is telling us to do this or else we're going to get 40% tariffs.
So why don't you build the photo masks? Say they're made in the US, we'll use them to make
the chips and Amcor can package them at the end. And then the chips, 25% made in the US. Does that
work, Mr. Trump? And he's like, yeah, we can sell that. That's the thesis. That makes the most sense
to me. If I'm running game theory on this, if I'm running game theory on this from the White
House standpoint or from the company's standpoint, either way, you end up at that conclusion.
That's the path of least resistance. The White House can sell it and market it for the elections
and say, look, TSM is packaging their chips and getting third-party photo masking done in the
United States for all their second and third generation chips. That's sellable. That wins votes. That gives the, I don't want to say gives
the illusion, that is effectively reshoring, successful reshoring. And it's done without
the need to build any factories. These guys have facilities.
You know, P-Lab erected in just in August of 2025, just two months ago, P-Lab erected the first high-tech photo masking facility in the United States in Boise, Idaho.
And Amcor is building what will be the biggest packaging facility.
The thesis is not rocket science here.
The thesis is this is the easiest way to bow to the king.
For these companies to say, please don't put 30% tariffs on us here. Look, we're trying
our best. We're doing parts of the process here, at least. And over time, TSM will build more fabs
and we'll do even more of the process here. That's the simple thesis for both Amcor and
PLAB. It's that simple. And yes, there's nuance. Yes, these are not sexy businesses. These are not high growth, high beta businesses, but they are reasonably valued.
Trading at between one to one and a half times sales, both of them.
And trading at 11 to 15p, both of them.
It's also a billion dollars, right?
So, you know, when I'm nitpicking when i'm nitpicking this
when i'm nitpicking this i'm just i'm just giving people because you know you're you know he's when
he speaks he's enthusiastic about it so he comes off a certain way that someone who might not even
consider they're like oh he liked it i'm gonna go buy it so my what all i'm doing is just saying hey
here are the things to consider but at the end of the day it's a billion dollar company and you know the most in my opinion the most likely uh scenario for
like real rapid expansion on the share price is just someone says you know what f it billion
dollars is just loop them in uh and then just buy it that's my opinion uh but yeah solid solid
solid company no real shit talk about it nothing just just wanted to kind of give people the things that as for me who I
owned it why I like it's not like a concentrated position for me that's
that's that was it for me by the way side note while we were talking rumble
ink to deal with perplexity I think that's got Evans name written all over
it well listen whoa I'm a big perplexity. I think that's got Evan's name written all over it. Well, listen. Whoa, whoa, whoa.
I'm a big perplexity fan.
I'm talking about the perplexity side.
Oh, yeah. Listen, I am
a big fan of...
I was surprised to see the stock go up like 20%,
honestly.
There we go. It's giving some
of it back, right?
It's up 17%.
That's pretty nice. Yeah, it's kind of like they we're gonna do some sort of bundled subscription it
didn't seem like that crazy of a partnership uh partnership includes several initiatives
including the integration of prevent disease tools drive more discoverability on rumble.com
new subscription bumble uh bumble rumble premium with perplexity pro
collaboration addresses fundamental fundamental product
challenge and digital video helping users is payment going across equal partnership
i think they're going to integrate perplexity's technology so that they can drive proper content
to people who want to see it which is a very unique way to kind of tackle against YouTube, in my opinion. And then I think what will probably end up happening is
Perplexity will have access to that data, and then they'll just like repackage ways for them
to bolt on. It's pretty easy.
So you think this is a no money exchange partnership?
Oh, I don't know about the money side side i was just talking about the product side uh i'm sure there's money involved in it well it says in uh the company announces a strategic
partnership partnership includes uh several initiatives and introduction of a new subscription
bundle combining rumble premium with perplexity pro so basically my guess is i don't know if that'll be an increase
in in subscription price but they probably split it and the idea is that they'll drive
users that way to to sign up so now instead of just signing up for rumble i get perplexity with
it that's my that's my uh two cents on it.
I'm going to just kind of go into, you know, what I saw, what I did, all that stuff. That's cool with you.
All right, cool.
So, yeah, the last several, you know, last several weeks, I was we were talking on here.
I was talking about some of these boring health care names and these boring, you know last several weeks I was we were talking on here I was talking
about some of these boring healthcare names and these boring you know bio
names I said I was at first obviously like there's other people that been in
them but I said that I liked some of the some of the action one of them that I
mentioned was Merck Merck did like it's just honestly just a headline she's a
trend headline but the awesome move all the short data stuff i'm out on uh we talked i think what is it like 10 days ago
now uh when we got the mike alfred bkk t headline um we talked about how you know he was on with
cypher and iron and that was a possibility for some sort of rip on the back of it.
And, you know, shout out Mike Alfred.
Space is OG.
Well, just go take a look at that stock.
It was in the teens when we talked about it.
Evan and I, you and I went back and forth on it about Mike Alfred.
Stock went to freaking 50.
It's pretty insane.
insane um i'm gonna kind of you know i heard the conversation at the beginning i i i'm with
I'm going to kind of, you know, I heard the conversation at the beginning.
everybody like yeah we got to talk about being cautious and stuff but i will say like that i
kind of agree with uh his name is jay woods i kind of agree with jay in that we haven't seen like
the call like gamma squeezing random shit co-names like the same way that we
saw in like 2020 2021 and we we haven't really seen it with some of the the favorites like we
saw it you know leading up to the tesla print uh on the on the you know on the um delivery numbers
they kind of like gamma squeeze some of the stuff but it hasn't been as persistent as it was back then. And back when like, you know, they also did it 2019 and 2020.
So I think when you start to see stuff like that, it'll be persistent for a few months,
at least before we could, you know, start to potentially worry about that conversation,
unless something exogenous were to happen. Unless there's like a headline that we don't consider so i think as long as you're not like over levered you're not you know going full
tilt into things and you're you're trying to figure out you know kind of like you know regardless of
of uh regardless of like agreeing or disagreeing with a stock pick if you're if you're like what
what stock talk just kind of laid out i was thinking of it
this way blank blank blank like that's the exercise right the exercise is not can i make like i'm
gonna buy this and how much money can i make the exercise is what's my downside risk and then like
you know what's the reason that this could multiply you shoot those shots if you're wrong you're wrong
but that's kind of like the exercise uh we have seen, you know, some of the chase stuff is like in the eye on cues of the world and things like that.
Those are more short squeezes.
I think there will come a time probably like later this year, probably, you know, around December where we start to see that.
And maybe early in the next year, people start chasing stuff.
And it just kind of like feels, you know, kind of like what we saw in 2020, 2021 with some of these names. And that's kind of, in my opinion, where we're going to see some of these tells. I mean, you saw some of like what we saw in 2020 2021 with some of these names and that's
kind of in my opinion where we're going to see some of these tells i mean you saw some of the
breakouts today in some of these names that have been beaten up for example so take a look at like
circle circle uh traded to 300 on the highs traded back to 100 and then today uh broke out of a
really you know long-standing downtrend since it made that high.
Went from 133 to 150 in a straight line.
So, like, we are seeing it in some spots.
And then you see how aggressive some of these moves happen and some of these left for dead value, you know, kind of like nice mix of value plus, you know, tech.
Plus, like, it could have an AI thing down the line.
Like, you see, like, see like things like uh prime bio
crisper today hit 70 again a lot of these bios bi ib i talked on talked about on here uh a few
weeks ago as well stock was up like 13 14 in two days amgen vertex like you you name it right like
there are these pockets of like of left for dead values that end up kind of ripping. And, you know, for me, I'd, I'd really
appreciate seeing some sort of, you know, reset that we can get some sort of sell off,
nothing crazy, just like a minor sell off, um, you know, into the end of the back half of this quarter, because if you get that sell-off
and you don't take out the gains for the year,
the impetus is going to be for people
to kind of chase performance.
And that's kind of like what I'd like to see.
But the problem is that the pain trade has been higher
and still higher because the call,
like the people that like put the call,
people aren't going out there and buying this thing hand over fist like they
were back in 2020. Um, they are in pockets at times. So again,
I mentioned like the IMQs and stuff like that. They're these,
these things keep rolling while the breadth kind of expands. I did a,
I did a, uh,
a live stream yesterday where I was just charting.
And then at the end of it is still in my feed and go into it. Like the last 10 minutes or so,
I kind of like talked about that,
that phenomenon more in more detail.
I think like the S&P or not the S&P,
the NASDAQ I think was up 12% in the quarter.
And it's supposed to be a weak quarter.
It was up significantly in the month of September.
It's supposed to be a weak month. And there up significantly in the month of September. It's supposed to be a weak month.
And there weren't really many places that didn't work, right?
So that is not a sign where, like,
things just kind of fall through the floor, right?
So you need to see some sort of, like, you know, shrinking,
narrowing in the price action.
And then there has to be some reason that people kind of, like,
need the money, and then that's when you have those things. The things that kind of watch for
are again, like we don't have jobs numbers probably tomorrow, or we're not going to have
jobs numbers in the future, who knows how that's going to work. But like, what's the reaction going
to be to that? You know, how are the yields going to trade on the back of that? You know,
how's the Fed going to navigate all of that? And then like, from there, you could just kind of do your back of envelope stuff about what things should trade at and where
we should be at and all that stuff um i do like that sometimes you get these like dislocations
in the market so an example i'll give is like take a look at uh something like uh clear clear secure
everybody knows clear at the airport stock traded to 39 39 this is like it's all-time high backed off in the last
like we're gonna have not the company not not so hold off the product we go
in longer short hold on a second a long second I don't disagree I don't have the
product I don't like the product only people having access to that data but
you do have a lot of events coming into the United States.
And I do think that this is something
to kind of pay attention to as like the World Cup comes,
as like, you know, the Olympics come,
and as these events kind of grow,
I really do think there's a market for them
to possibly kind of pivot
and add some of these services to those events.
Like if you can go through a clear line in a sporting event,
now you might get some more signups.
So like these are some things to kind of consider just from a technical
perspective, it's filled its gaps back.
It's down like 25% in a week and a half.
You got basically a long against 30 bucks if you want it.
Like I'm not,
I'm not suggesting this is like a long core investment or something like
that,
but I'm just kind of speaking to how quickly some of these things unwind and, and, and how quickly you could have opportunities, uh, should you get them? Another one that was kind of
making the rounds in the last couple of days was Netflix, right? So Netflix has, you know, some,
it's become the ire of guys like Elon and some some of the uh right-wing uh talking heads
did you cancel netflix
no i i don't think that i don't think that i saw people saying like they're gonna you know
i'm not like one of those like i know i know so but but anyways the point is that Netflix now, on today's lows, traded about $30 from its 200-day.
So if you get an opportunity where this thing kind of like, let's say you get some sort of sell-off event,
and you basically get this sell-off into the 200-day, now you've got an opportunity if you didn't buy Netflix to buy Netflix.
Or if you feel like, hey, I want to buy Netflix against this 200-day.
hey, I want to buy Netflix against this 200-day.
Another one that we've talked about, Evan, that the last time we talked about it,
I told you that I sold a lot of it given that it moved so quickly.
I sold the calls.
I didn't sell the shares.
It was Rivian.
So Rivian went down today on the back of their delivery report, right?
So the deliveries were up 24% quarter over quarter
and it was above expectations.
Unlike Tesla, Rivian doesn't benefit truly
from the federal EV tax credit
because they only apply it to leases.
So the reason people were selling Tesla today
is kind of like they view it as like a pull forward
on demand for the cars because you want to take advantage of the EV tax credit.
And then the pessimists will say, and then I'll go back to the way it was, right?
But in the case of Rivian, that $7,500 tax credit was only eligible if you lease the cars.
only eligible if you lease the cars and it wasn't for for sales and they still be that tells me it
And it wasn't for sales, and they still be.
was like more of a the q3 performance was mostly out as is more operational than like a one-off
the second the second thing and this will kind of push the stock lower is they narrowed their 20
2025 delivery guidance to 41 500 to 43500 vehicles, which is 500 lower than their midpoint from their previous forecast, right?
So people have sold this stock back into its 200-day today on the back of, oh, well, they revised lower.
The thing that I would counter, and who knows, we'll see how it plays out is to me this is 2026 story
they have a a mass market vehicle coming there are two vehicle coming it's a more affordable market
uh a more affordable vehicle which is supposed to try to go into the volume market by the way
we got a squawk out trump reportedly considering to give taxpayer rebates of one to $2,000 using tariff money. Hell yeah.
So the,
the,
the point I'm saying about this is traded back to its 200 days.
Today,
there's an uptrend just below this level.
Now,
if you,
if you were one of these people that while Evan and I were talking about it going from,
I think it went from 12 to 16 in a straight line while we were talking about
you're like,
Oh shit, I wish I bought it. It's a 2026 story. That's why I own the stock. It's not
for 2025. I think you, in my opinion, if you want to trade around levels, you can for 2025. But for
me, it's 2026 story. If they can get any kind of, you know, any kind uh tick up in sales or or vehicle adoption once they have a mass market
vehicle they become a volume vehicle uh producer that's where that's where the story kind of
changes for them that's where the narrative kind of changes for them that's the setup
so the point of me bringing up you and bringing up rivian is to be like yo go buy these things
it's like if there's opportunities that you feel like you missed on, you don't have to chase them. That's the, that's kind of been the benefit of this market. Um, and then, you know,
when you get these drawdowns or whatever, if you want to take a shot, it gives you an opportunity
to take a shot and then kind of position yourself or set yourself up for, uh, those kinds of,
those kinds of trades. And the last, the last note I'll end with is,
I'll get two things. One, one is Oxy. Oxy sold off their chemical business to Berkshire B.
I think like the stock sold off today, but I think that's something that I'm going to start looking at in the next couple of days for like, you know, some sort of position into the next year, because if they sold off the chemical business, which was their higher
debt load business, that, that, that debt load comes off their books. It should increase, you
know, their cashflow. It should increase their, their cash on hand. Um, and I do think if you,
if you kind of pay attention to the Buffett playbook, using that cash to buy back share with Buffett owning 28% of the float as it is,
and with their balance sheet looking better now that they've gotten this debt load off of it,
it could be a situation where the stock kind of floats up and people are just like,
why is this out for me?
So that's one that I'm going to take a look at.
The other thing is, Evan, this one's for you.
Apple's trading just like, it looks like a coiled freaking spring sometimes.
You're like inches away from an all-time high.
I really do think that if you do get any kind of like, you know, any of these mags that kind of sell, this is one of those names that they just kind of go in and buy.
this is one of those names that they just kind of go in and buy.
So I really do think that if it were to break out here in the next couple of
days, they will,
they will be forced to chase the Apple and we will be forced to deal with
hearing about it from you.
So it's the last thing I'm kind of like paying attention to next couple of
days.
If video is making it really hard to get for Apple to get back to the
largest company in the world, but she's chasing down Microsoft aggressively.
Doesn't have to.
My new internal
target is for Apple. I own a good bit of
NVIDIA as well. Great company. It's been killing it.
Internal target is for it to be
the largest company in the world so I can
gloat to some people.
But yeah,
no, Apple. Here we go.
$260 to that level.
We'll see.
It's been getting some price targets around $295, $300.
Stimmy at the top?
We're getting stimulus checks, maybe.
Stimmy at the top?
The top just got topier, sir.
You guys...
Are we really getting a Stimmy with the S&P 500?
You're getting a Stimmy,
and they're rolling back the pattern day trader.
Stimmy checks going straight to Robinhood, dude.
Oh, my God.
I don't own enough Robinhood.
Oh, my God.
Let's put it into, like, Invest America accounts or something.
Invest America account for everyone.
I said that's what we do instead.
I maybe want to go to the gym, seeing the stimmy check headline.
Maybe you go to a little bit of a nicer gym this time.
You get a stimmy.
You get a stimmy.
Maybe you go to an Equinox now instead of the gym you're going to.
I do have an Equinox membership.
I only go on the weekends.
What a day.
During the weekday, I go to my apartment gym because it's a nice apartment gym
and it has everything I need
and no one goes there
and I just have it all to myself.
But the weekends,
you like to go to the bougie gym.
I get it.
So on a steam room.
What's an Equinox membership?
Talk to some girls.
If you don't mind saying,
what's an Equinox membership run in Texas?
Well, I pay for me and my brother,
so I want to combine membership,
but it's 175. In New York City, like 300 something but I got it I got a long time
New York I was like three something and I'm like I don't know man yeah I think I
think now per person at the Dallas Equinox is like that price per person
but I've had it for a long time so but the Dallas Equinox needs a stop you
didn't you stop paying 170 a month for two people not not a lot like I got it
on a deal for two people like early early now it's like I said now it's like
I think it's 200 per 175 or 200 per person so it's a lot more expensive now
but it's not as nice as other otherinoxes like the dallas equinox
should be nicer the one in the city is like not it's nice but it's not like there's another read
there's another except another read there's another gym in dallas called john reed that's
like a little nicer but i don't like the vibe there it's like too the lighting weird man they
opened them here yeah it's just weird it's just like too much like i just want to work out and
get out of there i'm not trying to have like a party it's like set up like a uh it's set up like yeah they
have a lot of loud music uh dimmed lights with bright colored paints it's it's uh yeah and like
every mirror has like a led light around it i'm like dude what is this a rave or a gym it's so
weird but anyway yeah i just couldn't, I was going to go
to that place and I was like, no, not a, not a lifetime guy. Is it? No. Uh, I mean, I used to
a long time ago to lifetime because there was, there was a period where I was trying to just
funny. Cause like, I don't do it anymore. I was trying to like learn boxing for a period and
lifetime had like a really nice boxing room. so me and a buddy used to go and try to learn but I just didn't have it for boxing my arms are
maybe arms being long is a good thing for boxing but I feel like my arms are too long maybe I
just started working out too much I'm too big I don't know it just I just felt weird boxing I was
like dude I just felt like I would feel better doing it we did it for months too like bought
the gloves and everything but yeah I did
go to lifetime for a while when I was trying to learn boxing but uh not anymore now all I don't
even like I just do weights now I should do more cardio I just do weights now
what an interesting day in the market hey we're here talking about gyms now
no dude the stimmy check got me fired up though i'm about to go
drink a cup of pre-workout and go over there i love hearing about stimmy checks at the top i
want to see more of where this is coming from too the the articles and stuff i've obviously seen the
headline going around um i'm waiting to see more of an article see where he's live hey evan the the perplexity thing
yeah so basically for perplexity someone someone uh dm me is at the point i forgot i didn't i did
not think of it uh but this is basically 100 the point um the video data is basically 100 to 1,000 times written data.
And now Perplexity gets training data with Rumble, you know, so they can train their model.
It's cut off of YouTube.
So, yeah, I think that's for them.
It's not about the money.
It's more about having access to that.
So I think that's a really good point.
I want to just throw it out there. Rumble gets, I guess, access to that so i think that's a really good point i want to throw it out there rumble gets i guess access to it i don't know that's just a perk it for rumble it makes sense because now you have a perk it's not 10 percent well people where when people sign
up for rumble premium they will get access to perplexity so if i'm someone who wants access
to perplexity i can do both now i don't have to watch ads i to perplexity, I can do both. Now I don't have to watch ads.
I get perplexity, all that stuff.
And then for perplexity, it's not about making the incremental dollars there.
It's to have access to the data.
Now they have a fire hose for training data from video.
Okay.
It makes sense.
It makes sense.
I just don't fully understand why this talk is up to
lunch but we'll see we will see you know since we are coming to the end i know i didn't chime
in at the start when they're having the great debate about um pullback calling but i know
people in the comments were tagging me like can't wait for stock to jump on this one i don't actually
have a lot of aggressive comments to make on that i think what they were saying is pretty reasonable
and i think i want to preface this by saying it's always reasonable to be cautious,
especially when you're up a lot.
If you're somebody who's been that long in the market for the last two years
and you've had life-changing money, take some of it.
Change your life.
You know, market will always be here.
So I want to preface everything I say with that.
But I do also want to say that there is no alpha in saying the market is up a lot, so it should pull back.
I repeat, there is no alpha in ever saying the market is up a lot, so it should pull back.
That's obvious.
Everyone knows that.
What matters is, is how deep and when the pullbacks happen and that is
unpredictable completely no one in the history of mankind has been able to consistently predict
the duration and timing of corrections consistently not the best ta guys know what
right so you have to keep that in mind when you're hearing this type of commentary i i like all the
guys in there brian and jay and all the guys that were talking about that.
I think they're all smart guys. They've been in the market a long time. They know their stuff.
But we have to contextualize what you're hearing when you hear that.
You have to understand that, in essence, people are sort of trying to predict when that's going to happen.
And most people, I don't think the guys on the panel do this, but most people who do that do it so that when we do correct, they can say, look, guys, I told you it was time to be cautious.
Look, remember my warning?
That's why they do it.
Most people.
I don't think the people on this panel do it, but that's why most people do it.
And so you have to contextualize everything in here with regard to caution in that way with your exposure in the
market. And the truth is, the hard truth is, there were reasons to be cautious in January of 2024.
There were reasons to be cautious in July of 2024. There were reasons to be cautious in February of
2025. There were reasons to be cautious in April of 2025. There were reasons to be cautious just
last month. And in that period, look at what has happened to stocks from January 2024 to now.
So yes, it is important to be cautious. It is important to take profits. It is important to
change your life if you have life-changing money on the table. Yes, yes, yes, yes, yes. Do all those things. Don't mistake what I'm saying here. But also,
when people are exercising that caution, contextualize it. Put people to the fire.
There's a reason. Some people say I'm aggressive in these spaces. I am. I am. And I'm confrontational.
And I do, sometimes when we have guests, challenge them or interrupt them and ask things, right?
But it's important because it's important to get people to concede what they are exactly saying, right?
Because a lot of times when you hear these rants about be cautious, you know, the market is going to correct guys.
If you ask the person, okay, what exactly are you saying?
Are you expecting a crash?
When are you expecting a crash? When are you
expecting a crash? What have you done to prepare for the crash? How have you edited your exposure?
Once you start asking those questions, many of those people will not have the details to give
you. And that's the problem. That's why I am confrontational in those moments. Not because
I'm a permable. I mean, I am a permable. Everyone should be a permable. You should always be long
on everything. I mean, the markets are made to be long, net long for most of the time.
Yes, crashes will happen along the way.
Yes, you'll lose your ass sometimes.
Yes, you'll be wrong sometimes.
Yes, sometimes stocks will go down and not come back.
Those are all the risks, right?
And the management finesse and the execution finesse is what solves or at least mediates
those risks.
But this idea that you can profess this long thing about, hey, guys, you need to be
cautious about X, Y, and Z, and not have any sort of plan of implementation around that caution,
or have any actual specific actionable things you are doing around that caution,
then it is just noise. It is just fear mongering. You know, I throw that term around a lot when
people say like fear mongering, they say like, well, you know, what is fear mongering? Well,
to me, it's quite a simple definition. It is when you are making a point with, and this is with
regard to markets. I'm not talking about fear mongering in real life. That's an entirely
different thing. You know, making people feel like something crazy is going to happen in real
life, totally separate conversation. But in the markets, fear mongering is simply the idea of expressing extreme caution without any sort of actionable approach or detail or timing or execution associated with it.
That's precisely what it is.
It's this idea of talking about, you know, all of the things that have been talked about.
Student loan risk, stagflation risk, commercial real estate risk, labor risk, all of the things that have been talked about, student loan risk, stagflation risk,
commercial real estate risk, labor risk, all of these things.
And they were risks and they are risks.
And someday one of those risks will materialize and the market will crash.
It always crashes, right?
When I say the market will crash, does that surprise anyone?
No, everyone knows that it's going to crash eventually. When I say the market will crash, does that surprise anyone?
Everyone knows that.
It's going to crash eventually.
So where's the alpha in saying that?
Like, where's the alpha in expressing that caution?
What does that generate?
What opportunity?
The answer is nothing.
It's just noise.
That's why I often when we have these macro conversations, I have such a confrontational approach because I just don't get it.
I don't get why people are wasting their time ranting about that stuff or opinionating about
that stuff because they know it's not actionable.
They know they're not acting on it, or at least I hope not.
And I hope all these people that haven't been talking about these things for years have
just been buying puts all the time and just burning money.
But maybe they have, you know, but most of them
are not acting on it. They're just talking about it. That's the difference. It's so fundamental
to understand this because so many people get misled because the people that they're listening
to are providing these general umbrella blanket points without any sort of specific detail or any sort of idea of what people should be doing in response to that.
If you get up here every day for two years, like some people have, and say, well, guys, markets are bubbly.
You say that every month for two years, eventually the bubble's going to pop.
If you say every month for two years the stagflation is coming, eventually there'll be stagflation fears. If you say every month for two years
that stocks are overvalued, eventually they'll be overvalued, right? Like,
does that make you a genius? No, it makes you an idiot. That's the truth.
It only, like, the only thing that counts in markets is execution and timing. That's it.
And the timing part is really fucking hard, really hard, unimaginably hard. And so you're going to generate the alpha on the execution part and the stock picking part
if you do generate it mostly. And you might generate a little bit on the timing side when
you're lucky or when you're really precise and really well studied. And that's it. That's the
whole game. Everything else is noise.
Once you just accept it, just look in the mirror and say the market will crash, you become freed of this nonsense that you hear every day on Twitter, all over Twitter every day.
People theorizing about the macro, people writing sub stacks.
There's guys on Twitter who have millions of followers, some of them hundreds of thousands of followers, who have sub stacks of 45 pages of detail. And if you want that for entertainment purposes, right, to say like, yeah, I want to read about the macro because I want to learn about the economy.
That's great. Learn about the economy. There's nothing wrong with that.
But you have to concede that. If you want to say I want to read macro for five for 50 hours a day to like generate single stock alpha no if you're a commodity trader ignore everything i'm saying
because then it does matter right so it just depends on who you are but you know if you're
a single stock trader which a lot of i i don't know i'm gonna guess that most of you are single
stock traders and investors i I'm going to guess.
I don't think it's a bad guess. The vast majority. Okay. Then it's mostly noise. And you've been
proven that year after year after year after year after year, you've been proven that. And the one
time that we did go down in the last five years in 2022, it wasn't because of anybody's macro
narratives. It was just because rates were going up. You didn't think a genius, right?
And so markets will come up, they will go down, they will do all this dancey bancy stuff. But at
the end of the day, when people are giving you theses or giving you speeches or narratives or
tweeting stuff, hold their feet to the fire, ask them to be specific. If somebody's telling you the
market's gonna crash, ask them to tell you, what are you doing to prepare for it? You know, what
is the what is your plan of of execution are you selling all your
stocks are you selling just your trading stocks are you selling your long-term positions are you
going to be holding stuff through this after the correction are you going to have positions that
you still own pull people's feet to the fire right and that's how you get i think to the bottom of a
lot of a lot of those uh rants and theses What's up, Jaguar? Yeah, good afternoon, everybody.
I just came up to ask,
it seems, would you take 49ers 8.5 for tonight?
Seems pretty big.
See, you always ask this season.
I don't sportsman anymore, so I'm just not the guy.
Evan's probably the guy.
Evan loves sportsman.
I think their whole offense is out, so I would...
You're saying plus 8.5? I probably wouldn't even...
Yeah, plus 8.5, 49ers.
I mean, that seems like
big spread for a team that's
3-1 on the season.
I mean, they still
have McCaffrey, right?
He was
hurt. Maybe he came back. I don't know.
I honestly have not been paying that much attention either. I don't know. I honestly have not been paying that much attention either.
I don't know. Seems weird.
Jag.
Yeah.
All right. So listen, we got the stimulus checks maybe coming in here in after hours.
So maybe we're doing some of this stuff on Robin Hood.
I've seen your post. You've been posting one or two of these names.
I don't want to call it a D-Gen name per se,
but we're in a bull market and we're dancing while the music is dancing.
You've been trading some of these ones.
You got a new one you want to talk about here?
D-Gen names?
I mean, if you are referring to IonQ.
We got Will up here. He's got a 2X IonQ. We got an IonQ.
We got Will up here.
He's got a 2X IonQ ETF for you if you want it.
Yeah.
I mean, I've been long IonQ since low teens.
I've been long Rigetti since $2.
It's at $35 now.
Rocket Lab since $16.
And now it's at $52, and I think it's going going to 80. It's going to break out here pretty soon. But if you're looking for a new name, in which I just yesterday, first time ever,
I opened a new position, and I'm starting to really like this story. I'll give it to you.
I'll give it to you. It is called Amprius Technologies. Simple, A-M-P-X.
A-M-P-X, Amprius Technologies. So I bought, like I typically do, you know, if I, let's say, if I want to take a $ name, you know, I would put 80 or 80 to 90 percent of the amount I want to put in
in common, and then I would buy with the remaining 10 to 20 percent of the size I want to take in,
I would buy leap calls with it. And that's exactly what I did over here too with AMPX where specifically I went with high Delta in the money call
options April 10. I bought those yesterday for $3.85 and then that's
that's about 12% of the total size I took and the remaining 88% of the size
I took I bought Commons so you know slightly above you
know little over six figure position the plan is to hold this for at least six to
nine months and see how it works out maybe even longer but for AMPX
Ampryous technologies the key here is this you know know, that we are in a bull market for drones.
We all know about it. We all trade them.
Kratos has been a phenomenal trade for a long period of time.
But it's not just that, right?
There have been so many new ones that have just surfaced with pretty darn strong momentum across the board lately,
from Dragonfly to OUST to many names. I don't
want to name them Andas and so many others. But do you know what is the one common denominator
in all of them? I mean, we can pick and choose which drone system you like the most and what
company, what each company is doing and
what end markets they are addressing, but there is one common denominator in all of
them, which is battery.
Who makes the battery?
Who makes the most advanced batteries in the world for all the most advanced drone systems,
whether it's for commercial or military applications.
It's this company, Ampryous Technologies, symbol AMPX.
Now, here's the thing.
What many people probably don't know about this, and this the lead back in March of 2025, this year,
when they announced something very interesting.
Across the world, there are five large battery makers for drone system.
On average, all of them make batteries that have the density of anywhere from 200 to 400
watt hours per kilogram density, that is WH slash kg, watt hours per kilogram, anywhere from 200 to 400.
So, for example, a drone system used for commercial
application like amazon just to deliver packages may use something very very you know you know
low density such as uh you know 200 or 250 but then for a military application you know that
it may use 400 but nobody makes over 400.
And there are five of them worldwide everywhere.
Until this company came along, Amprius Technologies, who broke the story in March of 2025,
that they're making 517 specific number,
but let's just call it 500 plus watt hour per kilogram, wh per kg density.
Now, what does this mean? Imagine sending a drone system at very high altitude and leaving it up
there running on battery for two consecutive weeks. Think about the temperatures there. So
cold. It has to be able to perform at those sort of temperatures. It has to stay up there and
function. It has to be so density, the density of the battery has to be so fantastic that it could
continue to perform like it's supposed to. That's what this company has
done, the breakthrough. They tested this with Airbus Ziphyr drone system, who put this battery
on in one of their drones, and Airbus sent that drone for 67 days above the clouds and stayed
there without any kind of problems. So ultimately, after several testings, including by the U.S. military as well,
this company broke the grounds for a factory in Seoul, South Korea, in May of this year.
That's where they want to make these batteries,
and it makes sense because of the talent and many other operational expertise that is easily available in that particular part of the world.
And then about a couple of weeks ago, four weeks ago, three weeks ago, they got their first major order, which is a $35 million order from an unnamed customer for a military application.
an unnamed customer for a military application.
But I think we can all tell that this is either the South Korean government
itself or the United States government.
We don't know.
But the point here is this, you know, so you want to go pick,
you want to go buy the picks and shovels for the drone technology,
the most advanced one.
advanced one and i started to really like the story for ampx and and and i think that they're
And I started to really like the story for AMPX.
gonna see more and more contract activity come their way and i think the stock is cheap here at
1.5 billion dollars in market capitalization trading at 12 and 50 cents i think it can double
triple quadruple from here over time so there you go yeah i appreciate you on that one ampx always love when we can get a jaguar
thing honestly we are late for a conversation we were supposed to do at the top of the hour
i appreciate you i can't cut off a jaguar uh rant too far or not a rant a good a deep dive into a
stock i always love getting these plays and it was my bad on the host but i appreciate you jaguar
appreciate everyone i do see we got will mr will ryan joining us up here and by the way that ticker there he's talking about was ampx
um i did prompt him a little bit with the eye on q i know he's been trading there will we got a
2x etf there that you launched it's been doing pretty well uh i o n l but how you doing well
we appreciate you joining us up here doing well thanks, thanks. Yep, good to be here. Thanks for having me.
Appreciate you for joining in.
I don't know if, is that a name that you've heard of before?
Listen, Jaguar's coming out here with the cool different plays
that I have not heard of and it's put on my radar.
I don't know.
We got 2x ETF on this one yet.
New one for me, but I must admit with the with one and a half billion market cap
it's probably still a little bit small um really for us to consider for uh you know a leveraged etf
so you are the ceo over at granite shares we'll get one or two stuff pinned up in the nest above
and talk through a couple more of these ones we got a lot of 2x single stock etfs but there's a lot of etfs from before this uh drup is one we've talked about
for a long time on here and it's kind of taking a back seat to some of the new stuff we've been
doing but that's uh that's a cool one to be watching um why don't you introduce yourself
a little bit for the audience obviously you guys have been launching a lot here.
I want to talk through the Yields Boost suite a little bit.
I want to talk through some of these single stock 2x ETFs a little bit.
But why don't you get us started here? Yeah, sure.
We appreciate you joining us.
Yeah, no problem.
So for those of you that don't know me and haven't heard me in one of these spaces before,
my name's Will, Will Rind.
I'm the founder and CEO of GraniteShares. We're an ETF
issuer, which means that we're an asset manager that specializes purely on the launch, creation,
issuing, management of ETFs. So everything exchange traded funds. And we run now a global business. I started the company close to eight years ago.
So we have 12 billion under management.
We're a global company based out of New York City.
We run products in Europe and Asia as well.
And I think what we're probably most well known for
is what we call high conviction ETFs,
which sort of fall under
the categories of leverage.
And we have super popular yield boost, which are probably the highest yielding ETFs in
the market or certain market.
And those are all options-based income funds,
which pay weekly.
But we have a range, a broad range of products
that range from, as you briefly heard with Evan,
stuff that is on commodities, such as physical gold,
commodities, platinum platinum equities etc
your mic is cutting in and out
a little bit
we're hearing most of it but I just want to make sure
we're not missing too much of it
apologies for that
it was mostly okay
I don't know if you want to
sometimes the spaces can be weird
the headphones can be weird but
we were getting most of it was It was just small cut in and out.
Okay, sorry. Did you miss it? Was there anything
that was cut off at any particular point?
No, so when you were talking the 2X single stock
ETFs you cut out there, but you kind of came back
with the yield boost ones.
I think you sound better now.
Why don't we keep it going?
Yeah, keep it going? But yeah, I just want to keep it going.
Okay, yeah, no worries.
So yeah, we do a lot of different strategies, as you know.
I mean, from leverage single stocks to yield boost to high yield ETFs with options and others.
So a lot of different things.
Yeah, so one of these yields boost ETF etfs if any of you guys are income guys
i'm sure you have heard of these etfs uh if you first of all actually let's take a step back new
website first i don't know when when did this change within the last week or two
yeah it was actually just this week so we're working on it for a while. All sort of new branding, etc.
These things always take longer than than you expect or or than you hope.
But yeah, we went live, so we're still ironing out a few kinks on this.
If anybody finds anything funny, then please please feel free to let us know.
But yeah, new new look and feel.
Yeah, I like it. I like it.
And I like that we have a couple, like, tags on here, too.
The new tags, the trending one.
Let's be real.
NVDL is probably always trending out of all of these ones.
Especially now.
I mean, you know, it's had its moments, obviously.
But the last few weeks has really started to accelerate again.
NVIDIA has been moving.
NVIDIA, but that's one we all know.
The one that's also interesting for me,
IonQ.
What have you been watching with this IONL ETF?
I know it's marked as new here.
I don't know when exactly it ended up launching.
But this is one of those teams
that have been extremely popular right now.
And I know, I'm sure that have been extremely popular right now and i know
i'm sure people have been racing to trade it i'm looking through the aum so i i find these 2x etf
providers like yourself to be in a very interesting position because with a bunch of different names
you get to see where people are trading not just where they have invested where they are you know
trading but where they're also
accelerating that trading as well uh i would imagine you've seen that in the intel one the
intw etf but uh yeah i find yeah i was about no no it's it's a good one i think um you know iron
q is one of these stocks i think where there's a cult following behind it. And obviously,
there was a huge amount of activity around the stock when it was in real danger of getting
kicked off the NASDAQ. But it sort of subsided a little bit since then. And I think you've still
got the core fans that believe in it, but for people that are more interested
in whatever the relevant momentum stocks are at the moment,
the big moves we've seen are Intel, you just mentioned.
That's been huge in terms of interest.
Who would have thought from just a few months ago?
Micron's been another one.
Barber, another one.
And then your kind of ones that everybody's familiar with, your Palantirs, your NVIDIAs, your Teslas, etc.
Damn, I'm seeing the 226 million AUM on the website for BABX.
I want to see how that has been growing.
But the China trade is alive and strong. Interesting.
Yeah, I mean, the performance,
I mean, less so much,
I wasn't necessarily referencing just the
assets under management, but the performance
has been amazing in terms
of the 2X Intel,
the 2X Barber,
and the 2X Micron.
They've just really, really exploded to the upside
over the last sort of little period here.
I did pin up in the nest above a link or a tweet
with a bunch of the 2X ETFs in there.
Jaguar, I know you kind of impromptu joined us here a little bit.
I know you actively trade the 2X ETFs.
One question that I get all the time, or you actively play around in them,
is why use these?
Why do people come in and use these?
And I'd love to hear Will's take on it, but Jag, I'd love to hear yours.
As someone who I trust, the audience trusts,
and we're fans of how you go in and use these when you do, and if you do.
And honestly, if you don't, you don't.
I know we've talked actually um um evan i don't trade um any levered etfs in fact i've been on spaces right here before
many times when i'm an individual stock picker and even i don't i don't even trade the regular
one x etfs as much only when i'm hedging against the market corrections or when I have a view on the
entire sector. Like most of these oil and gas stocks, for example, they move together. Generally
speaking, there's a high correlation, right? So it's hard to separate one from the other. They
just tie to the oil price. So in that case, I'll just trade XLE, XOP for that matter.
So otherwise, aside from those unique incidences, I actually
don't trade ETFs much
or definitely not
the 2x or the 3x.
Sorry about that for disappointment.
Okay,
pulling my heartstrings a little bit.
I don't know why I thought you did, but we're good
on that one. I appreciate you
being here.
Stock talk. Actually, never mind. Will, what do I ask you? What do you see as some of the use cases for these 2X ETFs? What type of traders come in and use them? I'm
sure you've had a lot of conversations with the different people investing them. Some people
extremely successful. Maybe some, I don't know. Oh, damn, CON all over a billion. But yeah, what are some of the reasons and the use cases you're seeing people really using these?
I mean, let's start with the most obvious.
This is about risk and reward.
And for the right product at the right time, this is an opportunity to make a lot of money. So I think if you bought
NVDL when we launched it and held it to the day, you're up 2,500%, something like that.
And so it's a simple risk reward sort of thesis. And for those that are bullish, you know, on a certain stock,
then adding 2x leverage, you're even more bullish. So I think that that's like the absolute,
you know, simplest, the base level, which I think everybody appreciates. And then you get to,
you know, some of the other nuanced ways to use it, which ultimately still probably boil down to
performance, albeit expressed in different ways. But you get a ton of interest over earnings season
and people looking to play earnings, be it on the long side or the short side of certain companies.
People are active in the pre-market, the post-market. We have people
trading around the world. So in the day session in Asia and when the market is closed here,
we have people using them as alternatives to options. We have people using them for hedging
strategies if they have a long position in the underlying stock.
The underlying stock position is done well.
They don't want to sell that and release a capital gain or a tax event.
We have people trying to create losses by holding the short ETFs.
And I guess just so many different reasons or other different applications,
just like ETFs themselves, that people use them in so many different ways
that it's endless.
Well, a lot of those strategies seem more advanced than some people think.
There are definitely people just using these to speculate going in more,
but it does sound like there's also probably some really advanced people using this stuff
for different tax strategies and other things like that.
So I sit there and ask,
I'm trying to wonder who's buying these.
And it sounds like it's not just retail.
Yeah, I mean, if you look at,
this is a public resource,
but in the US,
if you're an institutional investor,
meaning you've got 100 million or more under management, you have to file something called a 13F report or 13F filing. And if you
look at there, there are many public websites that offer this, but just one whale wisdom is one that
people may or may not be familiar with. But it's a very boring sort of part of the market,
which you would have no reason to even think about
other than for the reason I'm about to mention,
which is you get a snapshot into who's holding these products
if you look up the 13F filings.
If you look at NVDL and you look it up on Well Wisdom,
it's free, by the way.
You don't need to sign up or anything.
And you look at the 13F and you sort the holders by size.
I mean, you'll see every who's who of Wall Street on that list from the most famous hedge funds, trading firms, and things in the world, right down to financial advisors, online brokers, and everything in between.
So I think once you get past a certain size, it's an instrument that's just used by everybody
in different ways. I don't mean literally everybody. I just mean by all sorts of
different players in the market. And so I think it's just a massive oversimplification sometimes
when you hear people say, yeah, it's just retail investors or whatever.
Like that's a very lazy way of looking at it because the reality is you have a huge, huge number of very sophisticated people using it.
That is very interesting.
I have never actually looked on here.
It says there – I have used well wisdom. when i'm playing around with it right now there are a lot of them
on here it says there's 500 events under the nvdl is that yeah you will i'm gonna ask you and i'll
get to the granite shares thing i'm sorry the yield boost thing i'm excited for it but do we
have uh do we have a baby on the 2X single stock ETFs?
I have a list pinned up in the nest above with pretty much every single one.
You guys are adding so many, so I did it five days ago.
I don't even know if that still would encompass every single one.
Do we have any babies?
Or are you going to default on this question?
It's okay.
No, I mean, I think, look, I probably have to go with NVDL because that's really the product that defined the entire category.
And now you have many successful leveraged single stock ETFs. But I think NVDL was like the granddaddy of them all because we launched that literally just a couple of months before ChatGPT was released to the world and before the NVIDIA trade exploded.
And no one was paying attention to NVIDIA before that, apart from those that were super dialed in to what was going on.
what was going on um and so nvdl has just sort of been that been that standard bearer for
the category itself um and obviously for all the wealth that the nvidia the stock has gone
on to create for everybody who's been a holder sometimes i know those answers can be tough i
appreciate you for answering that will
i want to ask you i want to switch over here a little bit this yield boost suite of etfs uh the
most popular ones based on aum actually by a good bit we got tsyy which is the tesla you uh yield
boost one but coyy the coinbase one and nvyy the nvidia one are popular what's your thoughts on this this whole
obviously you think there's some good stuff around it but why do you think people are enjoying this
this yield part of the market i'd be curious also like it's so i i know these this question seems to
be difficult to to get answer because we don't know but who is like what type of person is buying
this etf and how is it different from like the
two X single stock person?
That's a good question. I mean, the,
the honest answer is we don't entirely know.
And the reason for that is because as many of you,
many of you know, if you listen to kind of ETF,
people talk before that we're in a slightly weird position where we never take an order from anybody.
We're disintermediated by the stock exchange first and foremost and then the broker themselves.
So the broker actually has the client and the point of sale.
We never have the point of sale.
So we can look at things like that 13F report that I mentioned and clearly we can talk to people if they reach out to us.
But other than that, we don't have that sort of exact information.
That being said, I think when it comes to yield boost, so first and foremost, by the way, are very high yielding income ETFs that pay weekly
distributions to investors.
Like just to give you an example of what I mean by high yielding, I mean typically 100%
plus, and in some cases over 150%.
Now, the options-based ETF movement has become very popular.
It's very popular on X. It's very popular on X.
It's very popular on YouTube.
And I think there are a number of different ways.
This is not the only reason, but I think from what I gather,
what's going on is there's a movement of people that want to
or are trying to create a income stream that is separate and lives entirely
separately from their job. So in other words, most people in North America only have one income
stream in their lives, and that is the income that they receive for whatever job that they do.
receive for whatever job that they do. Now, that's all very well until you lose your job.
And there's no, let's say, safety net or no sort of secondary source of income. So I think what's
going on is there's a big movement out there that is really highlighting this as a significant risk
in your financial life. And people are building portfolios of high-income instruments to try and deliver a passive source of income independent of the job that they have.
And I think this will become even more important when we start talking about AI and the potential impacts on the job market from AI, which we
haven't seen obviously just yet. But that is my strong take on what is going on. And
this sort of started with, you can name different acronyms like the FIRE movement,
the financial independence, retire early. I think it is a sort of a subchapter of that,
if you want to call it that, where this is not about necessarily long-term retirement.
This is something else. This is about creating a second source of income, passive income,
reliable passive income that is independent from your job. And when it comes to that,
that is independent from your job.
And when it comes to that,
people are going to be constructing portfolios
using very precise ETF tools
that deliver high income
or specifically designed for delivering high income.
And I think that's what you see with your boost.
That's what you see with other competitors of ours
that are out there with these sort of options-based income ETFs.
I'm looking at them right now.
I don't know how big of a claim this is.
It's the fourth biggest right now.
My read is the Bitcoin one, XBTY.
I don't know if it's going to be the biggest.
Maybe there's one that's always just going to be sneaky there.
But I have a feeling it's going to be one of the most popular ones.
The most popular in the Yearboost family family that's my long-term read give me an xbty if you put me my guess on it in the long term just something about i would yeah and the
no no i think i think that's right and you know these i wouldn't read anything into the AUM today other than the fact that TSYY, which is the biggest one for us, just has been out for the longest.
So we launched that December 18th, I think, last year.
So that was the first one we launched.
But the others are really kind of increasing quite a lot.
And so I think who knows in five years time where where that will be.
So the big thing people talk about on these ones is like nav,
nav erosion, or whatever it's called, you know, the correct
way. So that's definitely a part of these strategies, you are
trying to get more income out than you. But once you explain
more to me a little bit about this, what are some of those
conversations you have, mitigateigate it, maybe.
Yeah, what type of market this thrives in?
The sort of the Nav erosion thing
started with a big competitor of ours.
And what they are doing is
they have something called
a covered call strategy.
And with a covered call strategy, you're selling an option and the proceeds
from that option create the yield or create the income for the investor. That's obviously fine,
but what also happens is you get exposure to 100% of the downside of whatever that underlying
is. So your upside's capped at the amount of distribution you receive,
but you're getting 100% of the downside.
So we thought the obvious kind of improvement to that
and the way that we designed Yield Boost was to do a spread strategy.
So instead of just selling an option
and delivering the proceeds of that option to investors. We are selling a put
option and then we're also buying a put option to provide some downside protection. So that's the
sort of the unique twist that differentiates the yield boost from a bunch of other covered
call strategies out there. And then furthermore, what I think the majority of
people are referring to when they talk about NAV erosion is just the value of the underlying asset
that you're selling an option on going down. So in the case of Tesla, for example,
Tesla's had a very mixed year, but for the vast majority of this year, the underlying was just
going down. So if you had invested in Yield Boost, for example, you were actually outperforming the
Tesla stock. In other words, Yield Boost, Tesla, T-S-Y-Y, was going down less than Tesla stock.
But I think that's something that, again, is just a sort of education point that people have to
understand that in the most case,
what you're talking about when you're talking about NAV is just the underlying asset going
down, which I'm afraid there's not really much you can do about that.
However, one of the things you could do clearly is reinvesting the distributions and that
at least keeps you in line, which is what a lot of people do. But I think it sort of goes into the myths category,
whether it's myths of leveraged ETFs,
myths of options-based income ETFs, et cetera.
And it's always worth clearly explaining what the facts are.
Okay, I appreciate that.
I am just now seeing in here there's a T tqq y uh tqq y and then a y spy
those ones i might actually change my mind those ones might end up being a little bit more popular
than the uh than the uh xbt y one so i've been watching the the payouts of these ones a good bit
but and obviously they're paid out weekly you guys are posting the annualized distribution
rates in there i'm seeing one or two of them hovering around 50%. As I'm saying this out
loud, my guess is that's going to be the index ones. And then some of the more single stock
ones are hovering around 100%.
Yeah. So put that into context, right? The YSPY and TQQY, which are diversified,
you know, indirectly linked to the NASDAQ and S&P 500. So if you
were investing in a regular covered call ETF, like a QYLD, for example, which is just a covered call
on the NASDAQ, then your yield is around like 10 to 12%, something of that order.
Now, if you do a yield boost equivalent, which is TQQY and YSpy
is very similar, then the underlying for that is we're selling options on a three times leveraged
NASDAQ ETF or a three times leveraged S&P 500 ETF. So you're getting essentially three times that premium and hence why you're getting about
50% in terms of yield. So that's a huge difference from just the underlying covered call. So just to
be clear, the Yield Boost ETFs themselves are not leveraged. They are a put spread strategy where
we're selling a put and simultaneously buying a put. But they are able to generate these high yields
because the trick is you do that on underlying leveraged ETFs,
which obviously have two or three times the implied volatility
of an unleveraged equivalent.
Gotcha.
And I've seen these expanding uh quickly so uh i am i am you know clearly the suite is
going well there's some interest around it before i i mean massive it's it's just supply and demand
i mean we started this with nothing we're close to 700 million now um in aum it's the fastest growing you know suite that we have and we're just getting
pounded with inquiries from people telling us to launch more and people can you know look at
our registration statement they see what we um what what ones we have on the shelf so to speak
and you know people are asking for for more and all the time. So we've been trying to launch two a week over the last few weeks.
And yeah, it's been pretty crazy.
I've been watching this.
Was the Robinhood and the MicroStrategy?
No, it was Robinhood this past week.
That one feels right.
Was MicroStrategy as well?
Yep.
it was so we did micro strategy last week in palantir gotcha and then we had um hood this
It was.
So we did MicroStrategy last week in Palantir.
Gotcha.
week and um ion q so oh sorry smci smci sorry i've seen this i know where we're going i'm feeling a
fund of funds coming of this pretty soon how does something like that perform differently than like
a y spy obviously like hey like the stocks you
have in it are going to be different but like how is it different if you were to do an ever single
one in the S&P 500 strategy versus doing it on one of these indexes or something like that?
Yeah I mean I think you can sort of see that if you were to aggregate a bunch of the singles together in a managed fund, then automatically, if you put a bunch of singles together, which are yielding in excess of 100%, then the yield is going to be much higher.
So I think that's the sort of the big level of interest in doing that.
And that's why we get a lot of a lot of interest in that
particular subject all right and then i'm going to shift this around maybe we'll bring some people
into it we don't talk about it much we got an utf in here over billion aum that's in an area that
has been super hot recently but it's not one of these i don't know i don't even know what
categories we got bar bar uh i'm sure you're not spending so much time on this one, but we got a, if you're looking
at GLD or something like that, it's basically the same thing with a lower expense ratio.
I know gold has been an extremely hot topic recently.
We're adding a lot of new stuff in here, but BAR has been one that you've had for a while,
so I'm sure there's some underlying uh enjoyment there
you got any thoughts on the gold market well i mean it's just again one of these sleeper markets
where it's gone to all-time highs it's outperforming you know the s&p the nasdaq um this year and gold is really in the sweet spot. It's really only bested by platinum
in the precious metal space, which is finally sort of broken out after many years of kind of
flat performance. So it's been a really interesting time. And I think, just two seconds on that,
gold, we don't have to talk about that much because everybody on this planet knows what gold is. And
typically, people just like Bitcoin are fairly binary towards it, either they love it or they
hate it. And for those that love it, it's an easy way to get exposure. What's going on simply is, to me, gold has become the de facto alternative to
the US dollar. And we saw officially just over the last few weeks that gold surpassed the euro
in terms of official reserve holdings. And so gold officially is the de facto alternative. But
I think this has been something that's been going on for many years
now whereby people around the world are worried about the amount of debt that has been taken on
by governments around the world and that there doesn't really seem to be any real effort to
rein that in or any credible pathway to reining that in and going in the opposite
direction. So if you look at, for example, Global M2 on a chart against gold, it tracks
very, very closely, and that is the money supply. And so gold has always been that sort of antidote
to paper money. And sometimes it's easier to say,
maybe don't think of it so much as the gold price is going up,
but it's the value of paper money going down.
The devaluation of the currency.
They love that one chart.
There's one or two in there.
But yeah, let's make it some good points.
Let's bring some other people
do we have you yes sir uh fantastic a lot of a lot of great information diving into different
things here a lot of things going on but i got free and great having will on again anytime will
is on one of our spaces i always have to ask ask about D-RUP, the disruptors.
Will, how has D-RUP changed?
Has the holdings changed much?
I love the concept still.
Just curious, any updates around what D-RUP's doing, the holdings there?
And I remember when it was first presented to us, it was so interesting that NVIDIA wasn't included in this.
But some other really great names were.
I'm just curious how the names have changed
and the thoughts around what
D-Rupt has been doing.
Yeah, no, I mean, it's
been,
the performance has been incredible.
So it's done exactly what it says on the tin, but
I guess in that space, there are
a number of ETFs
that claim to do different things in the growth market.
So it hasn't maybe had the love that it should have had.
But I mean, you can look on the website at the holdings for Drup and for any of our ETFs every day.
I can't remember the last time that we talked about it.
So what was in the portfolio then versus now. But I think it's a strategy for those that are interested,
which aims to provide exposure to the top 50 most disruptive companies
in the US market.
And that's based upon research and an index from NASDAQ.
So it was designed to be an alternative to the Qs,
but focusing on a more narrower concentrated
basket, but focused more on disruptive companies that participated in the sort of S curve of
growth, not just in one particular part of the growth curve, but in all of it.
And so what was interesting was that it wasn't just a MAG7 fund like so many
of these other ETFs are that claim to be growth strategies. And because or in spite of the fact
that we didn't own NVIDIA, we didn't own, I think, four of the seven, the performance was still
better for long periods and maybe still is.
I can have a look.
Then the cues itself.
So very interesting idea.
Yeah, that's what originally caught my attention was,
I was like, I have tons of exposure to Mag7.
Just the way I invest, everyone's different, right?
But I just know I have a ton of exposure there.
I know a lot of people have a ton of exposure there.
And so that's what caught my attention originally.
One follow-up question,
how often are you guys shuffling the names
and the holdings, the allocations on this?
Is it a monthly basis?
I know you guys use that score,
that disruption score.
How often are you shuffling the holdings around?
Every quarter.
So yeah, it's on a quarterly rebalance.
Perfect, perfect. Appreciate that. Evan?
Yeah, no, I appreciate those thoughts there.
Let's go over to Mr. Sam Solid in here.
I don't know, Sam, if you had a chance to dig into the post
that we have up in the nest above or
look into the website they got a lot
Garnet Show's got a lot of 2x single stock
names there's a lot a lot of
different tickers
I did like today it's all working
I want you to pull out one
of them and tell me
one or two things you like about the single stock
in there it doesn't matter your favorite
one it could be something like that,
but yeah,
you can take a look through that post up in the nest above Sam.
I know you're,
you're posting some good posts about the news.
I saw your nebbiest one from the morning.
Yeah.
But,
but what are we seeing?
For me,
my first look through this Intel one is obviously it's the,
it's a beautiful trade in this market.
And then for me, meta has been acting a little bit weird.
So maybe this FBL is one that I'd want to dig in a little deeper on.
But I even cheated and gave you two.
So I guess you can give me two.
But don't give me more.
Do we got you?
We lost Sam. do we got you we lost sam we didn't lose a sam yeah we'll get him right back all right mr talk
i i don't know if you were calling on me no i was calling on sam but how you doing
um any names on there you want to take a look through the list any names on there? You want to take a look through the list?
Any names on there interesting for you?
I know you're looking at names that nobody was looking at.
Yeah, we got you, Sam.
Yeah.
Okay.
Sorry about that.
I was talking the whole time.
I was wondering how come you're not handing me the baton.
Anyways, was this something I said yesterday?
I don't know.
Anyways, out of all of these tickers, I want to stay data center focused.
And correct me if I'm wrong. Well, actually, I don't even know if I'm going to be right or not.
I'm just guessing by the flows. Have you seen a lot of flows and have you opened up more blocks
in the NVIDIA two times? But what about the SMCI two times? SMCL. We already know the news about the Neo
Clouds expanding, starting contracts with a lot of the hyperscalers. We already know that NVIDIA
is going to be a beneficiary of this. We already know that there's other components going to be
involved in this, but what I think hasn't really, has been kind of forgotten a little bit. It was
up 10% yesterday, pretty much flat today. But what I think is going
to be a big beneficiary of this is Supermicro. Supermicro and Dell specifically, because you
also had the Dell two times. And the reason why is because if they're building all these data
centers and buying all these... Is this me or him? I know you're on mute now sam
it's not you all right well at least we got at least we got some of the thoughts out about it
the dell and the super micro
yeah dell dell i guess was one that um was a little that has been a little bit disappointing.
I thought there'd be more interest in that for some of the reasons that Sam just said,
big data center play, SMCI as well.
But that hasn't really been to date where a lot of the flows or whether the interest has been.
I think it's,
like I said, I've mentioned some of them, but by no means all of them, but you've had big interest in the likes of the Microns, the Babas, the Intels, for different reasons. But those have
gotten quite a lot of interest. Coinbase and the crypto stocks, always the same as well.
And then AMD probably is the secondary one to NVIDIA.
There's been a huge amount of, I would say,
resurgence in interest in AMD over the last month or so,
which has been interesting to watch.
But yeah, there's just a lot of activity across
the board. I apologize. I had to disconnect to my Wi Fi. I don't know what's going on my Wi Fi. But
maybe it's all this Bitcoin mining I've been doing using the using the Canaan ASICs recently. But
no, I think that I think those that the Dell two times and SMC had two times, I think those are going to start getting bit up.
I mean, honestly, if the market stays bullish, everything's going to go up because everything is honestly working today.
But I think people kind of forgot about those.
I think people kind of forgot.
Look, look, you need to order more servers from these companies.
And I think they're going to get bit up.
But just a little bit of speculation.
Sorry, Jack.
I know you had your hand up.
I don't see a hand up over there.
My bad.
That's so weird.
All good.
I guess my internet is not working.
Sorry.
Should I go, Evan?
You can go around the room.
It's okay.
I just had a quick question for Will.
Yeah.
So you spoke over there about something very interesting,
which was using credit spreads to enhance yield.
That got me, I thought that discussion was very intriguing.
The question I have is what specifically are you picking strikes
and how are you thinking about what is the minimum acceptable return
when you want to do a credit spread?
Because naturally the goal is to watch that spread expire for max gain, right?
Expire worthless, essentially, out of money.
But how do you go about it?
Like, what is the process involved in picking the strikes and the returns minimum that you're
looking for?
And expiration as well.
Yeah, no, great question.
So, I mean, first and foremost, that's why these funds are actively managed. And we have the license to trade all sorts of different strikes from out of the money strikes in the money or at the for trying to get the most amount of income or
yield with obviously downside protection.
So typically what we're doing is we're selling good options either at the money or close
to at the money, just depending on, again, the liquidity and or the value of those
strikes. These are weekly options. And then at the same time, we're buying put options.
And those put options that we buy are almost always out of the money. Typically, we're buying
options that are around one standard deviation out of the money.
And that's the strategy that we're running.
But again, that can be optimized depending on market conditions.
But broadly speaking, that is the spread strategy that we have,
is we're trying to go close to at the money for the maximum amount of yield or distribution net of the amount
we pay for the downside protection on the put.
One standard deviation.
So what happens in scenarios in which, and these are weeklies, right?
So I'm assuming the holding period is for, like, when do you execute the trade?
At the start of the week and then you hold it until Friday?
Or when does it begin?
So typically we do it on Fridays.
We do it on Fridays, and then that would mean that we trade the options on Friday,
of which the payment, if you want to look at that,
would typically drop into people's brokerage accounts the following Tuesday.
So the credit that you receive for selling the credit spread
gets paid out as dividend to clients?
Correct, yeah. I mean, we refer to it as an options premium, of spread gets paid out as dividend to clients. Correct.
Yeah.
I mean, we refer to it as an options premium, but yes, what we receive for selling that asset, which in our case is an option, that is the principle, that is the amount, the
money, the value that we distribute out to shareholders, less obviously the cost of downside protection.
If the stock falls through the short strike
and distribution has already been made,
how do you go about this?
What are the mitigating factors at that time?
What are the mitigating factors at that time?
Well, that's the scenario where the portfolio falls in value.
So you're selling the option, you're receiving that premium, and therefore your upside is capped to the amount of that premium you receive.
And so therefore you're exposed to the price movement to the downside.
And your protection against that is you have a put option, which, like I said, comes valuable
around one standard deviation.
So if it falls below that, then that's where you get the downside exposure to the price,
whatever that may be.
I see.
Okay. Okay.
Yep.
Just for to understand the mechanics of how you go about it.
Yeah.
Interesting.
Thank you very much.
Yeah, no problem.
How active are those, Will?
Obviously, if things really get moving in one direction or the other,
is your team pretty actively managing those?
Yes, especially when you have now 10 funds and growing like crazy with multiple portfolio managers.
So there's a lot of activity on those funds as there are with the leveraged funds.
Just for an example, and this is by no means a unique day because in some respects, I feel like when we hit highs, sometimes
the volume in the market is a bit more muted than when there's a bit more choppy behavior.
But we traded over $3 billion today on our platform.
So as you can imagine, with that kind of size, that we have a huge amount of activity going on.
For the income strategy ETFs, I have to say, considering that we're at all-time highs and
just continuing to press all-time highs, I'm surprised.
Actually, does the VIX have a 16 handle in front of it?
I'm not sure.
But I'm surprised the VIX is actually pretty, not in the 12s.
And that's actually going to provide a little bit of cushion as far as the IV for a lot
of stocks and therefore increasing the premiums.
You guys are collecting out the income strategy.
So do you see from maybe a statistical perspective that these funds are returning more in terms of income in the short term?
Yeah, I mean, I think the way that I would sort of look at it is, you know, first and foremost, the higher the volatility in the market, all things being equal, then the higher the yields.
Because if you think of volatility as an asset class, then what we're doing is we're selling that asset class.
So the higher that asset class goes, you know, the higher that you sell, the more money or the more profit, yield, whatever you make.
So there's no doubt that if volatility starts to go up, then you'll get high yield. And if you look
at it on a micro level, that a stock like Tesla can go through periods where the volatility is
lower, and then up until the last week or so, the volatility is higher and therefore the yield
will also be higher. I think what's also happening though here is as the market climbs higher and
higher, I mean, clearly if you're there for long-term growth, then it doesn't matter. You've
got Tom Lee out again today on CNBC calling for 7,000 by the end of the year, and he's probably right. But increasingly,
what I see on the yield side is more people that are electing to maybe convert some of that growth,
that that's the right way to put it into income, and have that in the portfolio along with
growth investments. So people looking to effectively take advantage of the volatility in the market
and really sit on that yield, and especially as the market keeps going higher and higher.
So I think there's a bit of that going on as well.
What a time to be alive and invested.
Always. what a time to be alive and invested always Will we've been going for
probably like 45 minutes on this
topic here we're coming closer to the top of the hour
is there anything you want to
leave the people with is there any
stuff on here that we maybe didn't
cover that you
want to make sure we're talking
on here
I don't think so you want to make sure we're talking about here?
I don't think so. It's just a good discussion on markets. Like I said, I mean, I'm fairly positive on what's going on. And I think that there are more tailwinds than headwinds between now and the
end of the year. So it wouldn't surprise me if we go higher. And like I said,
I mean, I think that whether it's leveraged single stocks, whether it's yield boost,
whether it's gold or platinum or whatever, that there's always an ETF out there that
you can use to achieve whatever objective you're looking to know, you're, you're looking to do.
So yeah,
I can't,
I can't really think of,
anything too much more to add.
We appreciate you for,
for being here.
Well,
I know you were saying you're announcing the yield boost.
We're,
we're releasing a new one or two new ones every single week.
So I mean,
expect some,
some headlines out next week on that one.
I don't know if there's any.
Yeah, I mean, I think probably the main thing also is that if everybody
or for anybody that is interested in this,
please do follow the Granite Shares X account and the Yield Boost X account
because especially right now, we just launched a new website.
So there are a few teething issues with the new website.
But to get the weekly distributions, they'll always be put out on X.
So if you're following us on X, you're definitely going to see that versus any sort of potential glitch on the website.
Hopefully, we won't have that.
But just, I think, a reminder that if anybody's interested please do follow us on
on X
I also put the website down below if you want
to go in and check that but I can vouch
on the ETF tracker I've been
running that one I
literally just get half the news that I need about
all the news I need about GratitShares from their Twitter
account their X account it is a great
follow I did notice the YieldBoost account
being launched a little bit ago within the of weeks. I see it starting to get
some growth there. Yeah. And for folks that maybe just want to just have that and where we'll just
be posting the distributions, which a lot of people clearly are completely down. People really
enjoy the distribution announcements. They really do love it.
It's huge.
I mean, today's our announcement date. So, you know, today's the date that we get absolutely swamped with, you know, everybody calling in, you know, what's the distribution, et cetera.
So Thursdays is up.
And that's very much on everybody's mind
when it comes to distributions.
In the graphic,
I sat there and wrote out every single one,
and now I have to do like 10 ETFs as opposed to like five.
So the graphic's just getting longer and longer.
You're giving me more work on my post.
Yep.
No, always. It's supply and demand.
The simple laws of supply
and demand. If there's no demand, then we're not going to
launch any ETFs, but as long
as there's demand, we'll keep doing it.
Alright, Will, who's going to win the Premier League this year?
Liverpool is on top right now.
I hate to say it,
but I think it's Liverpool's to lose. As a Man United fan, that really, hate i hate to say it but i think it's liverpool's to lose as a man united
fan that really really pains me to say all right will man united finish in the top half of the
league this year okay i'm gonna have to be an optimist and say yes we're gonna pull it off
will i had to think i had to think about that we're gonna get ninth okay we're gonna just slide
on up there and get ninth okay they'll save it we gosh yeah i'm a cowboys fan and a man united fan
what do i do with my life okay is there a betting contract on that i just want to know
it definitely is a betting contract we got on this stuff. Man United is perennial underperformers.
I would take a bet on them.
Honestly, if you gave me enough odds,
I'd take a bet on them to get relegated.
Who'd they beat?
They had a big win recently where I was like, damn.
They beat Chelsea.
Yeah, that's what it was.
That was a big one.
And then quickly lost to Brentford, which was not.
Evan, ask the right question here.
Will, who has the most Premier League titles again? Can you just remind me? quickly lost to Brentford, which was not. Evan, ask the right question here.
Will, who has the most Premier League titles again?
Can you just remind me?
Ah, well, there you go.
That's United.
Oh, of course.
All right.
Well, I just wanted to make sure Evan was aware of who had the most titles.
And Liverpool has, what, two, I think?
I am getting a... They're giving...
Calci is giving the 6% or like 6 out of 100% chance that they get,
they do get relegated.
6 out of 100.
Yeah, I don't know how to say this in the right way.
Basically, if they want to bait you into something,
I don't know if they want you to do this,
they'll put like 3% and it's like cheaper than the cost of money,
so that's kind of what it is.
Like their low base on stuff is like 4.
And Man United's at 6.
So it's a little bit above it, but basically
they're not going to get... Actually, you might like
this. Man City's at 7. They're saying
there's a higher chance Man City gets relegated than Man U.
That's from
financial engineering that they
pull off.
Alright.
Interesting.
Alright guys, have a pleasure. We appreciate you, Will. pull off all right interesting fun times all right guys
we appreciate you
will
granted chairs
founder
we appreciate you
being here will
doing a lot of
great stuff
i did a post
yesterday of
how many etfs
2x etfs
over 100 million
you guys have
i think this might
be the most
there's eight
which is uh
pretty strong intel coming in there.
And maybe we got some more soon,
but I was impressed by that.
You guys are the Kings in the space.
So appreciate you guys for coming in,
hanging out and giving some thoughts.
And thanks everyone.
And getting the,
the right person on top of the premier league.
I was looking at the sports
contracts for today on Robin Hood, and Will, we
appreciate you.
San Francisco is at 20 cents
Jaguar, and the Rams are at 80 cents
right now.
Yeah, I don't buy that.
It seems
too odd.
So you think San Francisco is going to keep it closed?
This is one of the things that I feel like arbitrage or something in there.
I think not only they would keep it close, they could just even win.
San Francisco wins.
They could just win.
Where are the Lions at?
All right.
My quant told me to buy San Francisco at $0.23.
I put in $20.
Look, you don't have to stay in all the way until it goes to one.
You may get a double on that at some point in the middle of the game
by halftime or first quarter.
Just take it.
That's the beauty of fading in Robinhood, right?
Yeah.
So I took the other approach.
I just buy dips on the good teams.
Yeah.
That's literally my approach.
If it dips to 50, I buy it.
If it dips to 30, I buy more on good teams.
If you get the start of the game where underdog is doing very well in the first half,
and then you get the halftime, and you see the odds get split by that time,
I think it's worth the shot to take the superior team at 30 cents on the dollar, 40 cents on the dollar, and then look for a bounce.
To me, same line of thinking, but if I see the Rams at 50, like, okay, I'm buying quality down here.
You know what I mean?
I feel like if they're under 50, you have a high chance that the better team is going to jump back above 50 at some point during the game, and you can at least take profit.
I don't understand why they're both even, right?
Obviously, it's home for the Rams.
San Francisco has a lot of injury.
Is it injury or something?
It is not even.
The Niners are not good.
Peersault and Jennings and Purdy, I think we're all out.
Okay, I don't know what that means I get that but they have McCaffrey
I mean that's a horse
You don't want to bet against
That's just my view especially when you're playing with
I mean I don't consider Rams to be
High quality if you ask me
But I guess others would disagree but
Yeah
That just
Anyway I think 8.5 points is too much.
That's all.
I do agree with that.
It's going to be an interesting line to watch.
The Bucs have been doing really well on these lines this year.
Well, Stock Talk, you taking a bet on this one?
Is he even still up here?
I don't sports bet anymore, really.
I know what he bet on today
and I joined him
and I apologize for missing stocks and spaces.
Yeah, you missed my
conversation about semiconductor
reshoring and all the
great boring stuff. I'm a fan.
I'm a fan. I'm a fan.
I had somebody on my Discord while
I was doing that and they were like, I don't like
listening to boring stuff, but if it makes me money,
I'll listen. And I was like, isn't that
true? Isn't that true?
Have you looked into P-Lab
before? It was the Stock Talk name
he called out. Jag definitely knows about that company.
Wait, I'm sorry. Key Lab?
P-Lab. P-L-A-B p lab oh yes okay so i've never traded it and i have looked at it but uh kudos to you if you're behind it
because when i first looked at it the story looked pretty intriguing but sometimes you know
you come across so many good things but you can only have so much stuff in your portfolio right
i mean so um and i just uh look past it but i'm pretty
sure it's a good one when i looked at it it looked pretty intriguing at that time too
yeah i'm sure as you know they do photo masks and yeah i opened amcor a couple weeks ago i know you
probably know that name as well i'm sort of trying to build a mid-cap basket uh you're dude we are
very similar styles so i mean you kind of you're going to get
a lot of my thinking here i'm trying to build a mid-cap theme basket sort of around um this
effort to reshore semiconductors and as all well-studied people know it's going to take
years to bring fabs and volume here like tsmc arizona i check their progress every week and i
read the taiwanese news updates about it.
It's going amazingly. It's going swimmingly. There are some people who are concerned about some talent problems and this and that.
But as far as timeline goes, I mean, they're over a year ahead of schedule.
So it's going to take years to build real fab volume, if ever, if it even ever happens here.
But in the meantime, you know, people need to kiss the ring.
And for sort of, I don't want to say the word pretend they're making chips in America,
but you know what I mean by that.
Give the illusion that they're making the chips in America by doing parts of the supply
chain here.
And so my thesis on Amcor was they're at the end of the supply chain in packaging.
They're arguably the world's leading OSAT, certainly the domestic leading OSAT.
And there's 6 billion market cap, direct partnerships with Apple, with TSM, the biggest facility ever put online in the United States
for OSAT, supposed to come online in 2028. A lot of visibility for capacity expansion and revenue
expansion for Amcor for me. So that's my core exposure in the basket. But I felt like I wanted
more. I didn't want to just own the tail end of the supply chain. And so last night I was reading
this assessment report from the Bureau of Industry and Security at the Department of
Commerce. They put it out in December of 2023, but it's really good. I'll actually DM it to you,
Jack. You'll want to read it. It's your type of stuff. It's very, very detailed analysis of the
semiconductor industry, personal surveys and interviews with
like 20 CEOs. And it's all done by the Department of Commerce. It's done very professionally and
officially. But anyway, I read it last night and a lot of names were mentioned. They mentioned
every US semiconductor name in the report at some point, but Amcor was mentioned a lot,
which was good confirmation bias. It's always good to get a little confirmation bias, but
Photronics was mentioned and they were sort of mentioned casually. They're only mentioned once was good confirmation bias. It's always good to get a little confirmation bias, but, um,
the Photronics was mentioned and they were sort of mentioned casually. They're only mentioned once in the 107 page report, but I started looking more into them. And in a way they're the bottleneck
at the top of the chain for any spillover chips. Right. And the sort of beauty about
these third party contractors, both on the packaging side and on the photomask side
is that they are insulated from a lot of this executive action around chip restrictions
because as we know the executive action around chip restrictions is almost exclusively dedicated
to the cutting-edge chips and the third-party guys aren't photomasking or packaging the cutting
well actually an amcor in some cases is packaging the cutting-edge chips but in the photo mask side, they're not packaging. They're not doing
it for the cutting edge chips. That's all done internally at TSM or whoever is fabbing those
chips. But the three nanometer and four nanometer, once those get pushed out in priority for TSM,
they will third party the photo masking and they always do for all of their old lines.
third party, the photo masking. And they always do for all of their old lines. And then there's
an opportunity pivot there for me. So, you know, these companies have had six or seven quarters
of relatively stagnant performance, but they're both trading at one to 1.5 X sales there, you know,
P-Labs trading at an 11 P, Amcor's trading at a 19 P, I think with a massive capacity expansion
on the horizon. So I'm not even that worried. I don't think that that's that rich of a valuation.
Trading at 1x sales.
And they're partnered with some of the biggest companies in the world in an effort to reshore.
And the cool thing about this, in my view, is you don't even have to believe that the reshoring is going to happen to think that these guys are beneficiaries.
Because even if it goes halfway, they still win. In fact,
you could argue they win more if it doesn't go all the way. Because in an era where people want
to provide illusion that they are American made or that they are providing jobs in America or
providing investment in America, just like the analogy I made earlier of, hey, Trump, we're going
to make the Apple iPhone glass in America,
and everyone cheers, and they get the Made in America stamp just for doing that.
The same way that that has happened, semiconductor companies need to present that illusion,
both to the administration and to the American public, so that the administration can sell it to the American public.
And so once you start thinking about game theory in these ways, I think these supply chain companies become interesting.
Most people, I mean, Jag, I know, knows about these companies because he's very well studied.
But most people on Twitter, you aren't going to see talking about these companies.
You know, if you search P-Lab, you're going to see a bunch of bots.
If you search Amcor, you're not going to see anyone talking about it really at all.
Before I mentioned it earlier this year, it's certainly none of the big accounts.
And that's a good thing sometimes, because sometimes you get positioned in these stocks,
maybe you get some longer dated calls,
you get some nice cheap shares
before anyone really understands the story.
And then you're two or three headlines away
from a complete repricing.
Like Amcor in the two weeks since I opened it
is up almost 30% and it's not a meme stock.
It's not a bullshit stock.
And I know the market's up.
I'm not implying that like, you know, only Amcor's up. What I'm saying is, is that these are
generally kind of slow, slower moving stocks, not as high beta as a lot of their mid cap peers.
But if you believe in the thematic backdrop, there's a lot of argument for them to be repriced.
There's a lot of argument for them to trade at least above 1x sales.
I mean, come on.
In this environment, you know, there are small cap, forget about the mid caps, there are
small cap semiconductors right now trading at like 70 times sales with bare bones growth.
You know, newly featured growth that showed up three quarters ago, maybe they posted
a 14% EPS growth.
Some of those semiconductor names, just by virtue of being connected to the industry, are trading at 15, 20, 30, 40, some even 60, 70 times sales,
like retarded valuations. And then you're looking back and you're like, okay, but there are
reasonably priced real beneficiaries that are highly likely to get capacity expansion from an
effort to reshore, successful not so yeah i think it's an
interesting trade but yeah i know you looked into it before jay but you should look maybe look into
it again i think it's interesting here and i think there's a good shot that both of those stocks see
a real repricing in the next year year and a half in my opinion as this becomes more obvious um was it you um stock talk who bought 2200 of the march 25 calls
in photon fotronics today i did buy a lot of calls okay i didn't buy all 2200 of those but i bought
a lot yes um what was it what was the striking march 25 25 calls were being bought all day today.
Was that the strike?
Yeah.
Yes, yes, that's the strike.
But again, I don't own all 2,000 of them, but I do own a lot, yes.
Yeah, it could have been your room also following you.
Yeah, people in my room also, I'm sure, bought some.
But yes, I bought a lot of them.
But that's just like yesterday. When I presented the bull case for AMPX and the April 10
calls, they were about, by the end of the day and then some more this morning, there was over
$650,000 worth of those calls were bought, all by Jack Clines, essentially, in AMPX April 10 calls between yesterday and today morning.
But anyway, look, while you were talking, I was pulling up some more research on this.
They have this facility in Texas that is going from mid-range nodes, 14 to down to 8 and 6 nanometer nodes, that's going to increase the demand for
much of the applications that require that, you know, from robotic surgeries and all sorts of
things. And the 14 nanometer goes into things like toaster ovens. And then 6 nanometer, you know,
goes, 8 nanometer goes into much more advanced stuff. And then the 3 and then six nanometer you know goes eight nanometer goes into much more advanced
stuff and then the three and the two nanometer goes into the smartest you know ai applications
and and and satellites and military applications and all of that so this is definitely going to
increase the end markets that they'll be able to serve that texas facility
is is uh should be coming to completion soon, because in the earnings call, George Macri-Costas,
I think he's the CEO, he mentioned in one of the responses to the CapEx question that came,
and he said, I quote, basically, we are looking at about a three-year high, three or higher than normal
capex. Part of it is end-of-life tools, which also give us more capability. We have been able to
extend the life of many tools for much longer than normal. So part of it is end-of-life tool
replacement, which again gives us extra capability, but also investments, strategic investments in Asia for increased ability and more advanced nodes.
Bingo.
And that's the key over here.
Have an in-house in the United States, a facility in Texas that can make more advanced nodes.
Once this CapEx trend ends, that's when free cash flow will skyrocket,
revenues will take off, margins will expand, and the company will be far more domestic-based than
international-based. And that's what you're betting on, and that's a long-term view, and I think the
market will reward this stock when that happens. They have another facility in Idaho also.
I'm not sure what they're doing there,
but they briefly spoke about it in the earnings call
as it relates to capturing reshoring demand.
So they must be doing something there too, Idaho,
but have to kind of read up on that, see what's going on there.
But yeah, I like the name.
I think it can work gradually higher initially.
But then once the market realizes that CapEx trends are normalizing, orders are coming.
That means margins are now starting to expand.
That's when the stock can really take off.
But that takes a process, right?
It takes a while to go from higher CapEx trends to a higher margin business.
And by the time everybody sees that the multiples has
expanded materially and earnings expansion are skyrocketing and that could happen with
this stock in a year two years from now yep you're right on with the texas facility and
to the point of the texas facility jack one other facility you should look into
this is actually a big part of my thesis or was part of my research when I was looking
into P-Lab the last couple of weeks.
But there is something called a multi-beam mass rider.
And for people who aren't familiar with the EUV industry, multi-beam mass riders are different
from traditional mass riders because they allow you to curve the beam.
They allow for what's called, in semiconductor language, called a curvilinear EVU class beam.
That's what it's referred to as. I know that's technical language. But the simple way to put it
is the multi-beam mass writers are a upgraded class of tools. And there was no multi-beam
mass writing facilities, merchant facilities in the entire United States of America.
But in August of 2025,
they finished installation in Boise, Idaho, of one of these multi-beam maskwriters.
They are the only company in the country who not only has one, there are others in the country,
but has one that has the talent to operate it and has the clientele to use it. And why that's
important is that all of your HBM and AI logic chips need multi-beam mask
writers, all of them, not just the cutting edge ones.
So what are the two biggest chip themes in the market right now?
HBM and AI chips.
That's literally the two big singular biggest themes.
And you need multi-beam writing to do it.
And Photronics is the only facility in the United States.
So that's a very, very important thing too.
The same way that Amcor's peoria facility coming online in 2028
will be a beast of its own in the united states the photronics facility in boise idaho is a beast
of its own and all of the stocks i've talked about this year have some of these sort of unique
i call them assets but they're not balance sheet assets. They are physical assets. Centris Energy, American centrifuge plant in Piketon, Ohio.
Class of its own.
No facility like in the United States.
White Mesa Mill for energy fuels UUU.
Class of its own.
No facility like in the United States.
Same thing.
This is a completely different industry.
Nothing to do with nuclear.
And those stocks I talked about months ago and have done very well, great.
I'm not even trying to call back and say, look those stocks these are new ideas amcor i talked to you
guys about two weeks ago yeah it's already up 30 but i haven't sold a share b lab i just talked to
you guys about today sure it's up five percent today we'll see how it does there'll be pullbacks
there's pullbacks on every stock be red days there'll be minus four or five percent days
whatever but focus on the story here what i am focused on right now is a mid-cap thematic stock picker
is nationally strategic facilities. That's the big theme of my portfolio. It's true across the
aerospace and defense mid-caps I own. It's true across the nuclear mid-caps I own. And now it's
true across the semiconductor supply chain mid-caps I own. They all have, every company on that list,
I can name eight companies in my portfolio, has a facility
in this country that is unique in some way, shape or form. In some cases, it's the only one of its
kind. In other cases, it's the only one of its kind with the customers and talent to make it
useful, which is basically the same thing. And in other cases, it's a facility that is directly supported hand in hand by the U.S.
government.
But in all three of those cases, value must be assigned to the facility outside of the
business.
And I'll reiterate this.
In the case that a company possesses a strategically important national asset, value must be assigned
to the asset itself outside of the operating business.
And this is why a lot of people have missed the repricing in aerospace and defense mid-caps, in nuclear mid-caps, and now, in my opinion, are going to miss it in semiconductor supply chain mid-caps if they're not paying attention.
It's the same exact playbook.
And I'm betting my bottom dollar.
I mean, not my bottom dollar, but I'm betting in size on these names, right?
Between Amcor, Amcor is what today in my weighting.
Let me go look at my position weightings.
So I have currently 17 positions.
Okay.
So Amcor is a little over 11% weighting, 11.06% weighting.
And P-Lab, I opened at a 5.5% weighting this morning.
Obviously, a lot of people were finding out the idea and chasing it.
So I did get a little bit of a head start on that.
And that's almost a 6% weighting now.
So between the two, that's almost 17% weighting my portfolio.
I mean, that's not, I don't size stuff like that when I'm not convicted.
The last thing I sized like that was the nuclear trade in May to give you reference with, with LEU and UUU in May.
Those stocks have tripled since more than tripled both of them. Okay. The stock that I sized before
the nuclear trade, Nebius at 23 was the last stock I sized this way. So I don't size stuff
like this. My money's where my mouth is. I could be wrong.
I'm not saying I'm going to be 100% right.
If these stocks see a brutal drawdown and breakdown below, if their monthly charts,
I'll put it this simple.
If their monthly charts break down below the major moving average, I'll be out of these trades.
But for now, I really like the story.
I really like the thematic.
They're priced reasonably and everything makes sense to me.
So that's why I've shared them with you guys. And again, I try to talk about stocks that not everyone on Twitter is tweeting about every day.
I try to do that, my best to do that. And over time, as these names grow, yes, people will talk
about them. You know, people, every one of their mothers talk about Nebius now, but I try to find
them when they're not, when they don't have $17 billion Microsoft deals, because then you're in the name solo and you can
own it not forever, but if you're young, yeah, close to forever, but you can own it for a long
time. You can own it through multiple cycles. Whenever this market does crash and turn over,
there'll be a new cycle. And some of the names from this cycle will be leaders again. Some won't,
but some will. And it's good to have
those names. It's good to be able to say, Hey, I kept that name from last cycle and I still have it.
Oh, Hey, that's, that's awesome. Like that's what the goal is here, guys. And the goal,
the trading stuff's great. I do the trading stuff. Jag does the trading stuff from time to time.
Trading stuff's great. And you can generate some capital in the meanwhile,
you know, it should be obvious where that money should be going right to your investments and
to pay your taxes when you need to.
Sam, what's up?
So I wanted to touch on a couple of points.
You already went on the high bandwidth memory.
So you got the big players.
You have Samsung, SK Hinex, and then you have the, well, not necessarily building all of their memory in the US, but you have Micron. And then you also have the technology, which is basically building machinery of ASML.
And these are clients of a photo of a P-Lab, right? So if you really think about that perspective,
both of those stocks are trading at or near all-time highs. ASML had a deep pullback recently.
time highs. ASML had a deep pullback recently. Everyone bought the dip in that one. Micron as
well. And then you think about what other companies are going to be using these photomass
for a lot of these small nanometer chips. I agree with you. I think that the market hasn't caught on
yet. They're probably starting to sniff it out. The market does a really good job of sniffing
stuff out, aside from listening to you guys. I mean, it's just that they go where the money flows,
and we haven't seen it really flow dramatically into P-Lab yet.
But this thing has been based enough for the last two or three years.
I know a few people who have been in this for a long time,
just staying in the low 20s.
And it's been having good earnings,
and then gets projected around the $26, $27, $28 level.
If we break out of that base,
then that's going to be a multi-year base breakout.
And that'll be very interesting to see because it has all the catalysts right in front of
So I think that's a pretty good opportunity.
There are a few trades that I was in recently that took a lot of profits in and sold calls
against my leaps, namely Marvell technology, as well as Micron.
And there's obviously more room to go above there.
But at some point, you're going to start taking some profits
and just rotated it into P-Lab.
Mostly in shares.
I didn't buy those strikes that Jag was talking about earlier.
But I don't think it's going to happen tomorrow.
But if it does, great.
If it doesn't, then it'll be time to accumulate more for me.
I mortgaged my house and bought P-Lab.
And one point I want to make about a lot of the stocks I bought recently,
I own more names trading under 2X sales,
and I know that's not a valuation metric.
I'm just being generally referential.
I own more names under 2X sales in my portfolio now than I ever have.
Why?
Well, markets have gone up a lot,
and I made a lot of money speculating.
And it's great to speculate.
I still have speculative names in my portfolio. I still have names that even I think
are overvalued, but I own them so low. I'm not going to sell them here. And so, you know,
there's ways in these moments of markets to manage risk. You can take off short-term options,
exposure, you can hedge, you can put on callers. I mean, Jag gave a great seminar on callers a
couple of spaces ago. We have all our space recorded so you can go listen to it. You can do
all these sorts of things to manage risk. One of the ways I do it is I like to,
on my newer positions, like when I'm opening new positions in these nosebleed markets,
I want them to be reasonably priced with secular tailwinds that are going to be really hard to
escape, right? And I think earlier when me and Wolfie were talking about this, I'm looking for
thematic tailwinds now at this point in the market that are going to be hard to dodge.
Like I want to find themes that are going to be so forceful from a policy standpoint that you'd have to be an idiot to not be able to benefit from them if you're in the industry.
Because I don't want to depend on management teams at this juncture, right?
There's a lot of risk in depending on management teams at this juncture, especially when you're living up to big valuations. But if you can find names in
relevant thematics trading at sub 20 PEs under sub 2X sales with real opportunities for growth,
I mean, who's to say that there aren't real opportunities in this market still,
despite the nosebleed valuations for a lot of names? Yeah, Palantir's at an insane value.
I couldn't touch it with a 10-foot pole.
I couldn't even justify it to myself.
Could it keep going up?
Sure.
Robinhood, which I even own.
I've owned since sub-20 and I still own it.
It's a crazy valuation.
I can't buy more of that.
You know, even Kratos, which Jag loves and I love
and we've loved since the 20s and sub-20s.
That stock's gone crazy.
The valuation's crazy.
Do I still like it?
Yeah, I think they're going to win a huge contract.
And the market cap's probably going to go up more.
Look at that monthly chart.
But am I going to accumulate it here?
You know, I said at 20 it was going to 100.
You know, Lockheed should have made a bid.
Lockheed should have made a bid for Kratos' long time.
They might still, dude.
I don't know what's taking them so long.
But this is the same. This is i felt about uh boeing too where they've missed a lot of
opportunities in aerospace uh where they could have consolidated supply supply chain um you know
there's uh hwm uh how met aerospace uh similarly uh you know there similarly, there are many other companies that have been a big boon for Boeing,
and they missed all those opportunities.
Of all the big ones in the defense sector,
Northrop Grumman is the one that has more aggressive M&A strategy than some of the others.
than some of the others.
Many, many years ago, more than 10 years ago,
there was a stock called Orbital ATK, symbol OA.
You know, you can Google search it, Orbital ATK, OA.
That was an aerospace stock.
I fell in love with that company, everything about it,
and I just kept owning it, owning it, owning it,
and one day, the news came out that Northrop Grumman is acquiring the company, and when that happened, I was so disappointed
because I don't want that stock to go away. I just love the company so much, but I ended up
getting acquired No Longer Trades, and I've always felt that Kratos would be one of those two where such a perfect fit for lockheed right which is
being threatened with the air force you know so many programs uh with government looking for cuts
these are 100 100 million dollar jets and the future is drones come on why can't you see that
it's like right there in front of you you know and then but they never made the move and so anyway you're gonna end up buying them
20 billion probably probably when they could have done it when it was 3 billion or 2 billion right
i know when we were buying it yeah they could have bought it when we were buying it they just
read our twitter but i mean no dude this is the thing like now everyone talks about kratos right
like when we were talking about it two two years ago no one was talking about it that's the point
of these things is like when you position yourself like me and Jag don't have to ever sell our Kratos. We can wait for the
acquisition. It could go up, down. It could go to, it could fall back to 30 bucks for all we care.
The thing is, is that when you position yourself in these names early, when everyone knows about
it and Wall Street's raising the price targets, you're laughing. You're laughing. You can do
whatever you want. You can sell your leaves.
You can trim your leaves, exercise your leaves. You can do whatever you want to do.
The possibilities that it opens up to think outside the box before you see the explosive
revenue growth, before everyone's talking about it, before the chart looks like the strongest
chart in the market, right? When that monthly starting to, when that monthly chart starting to show you things, it hasn't shown you before when, when,
when the story's starting to line up and all these puzzle pieces are starting to fit together.
And you're like, dude, you know what? Six months, wall street's going to start upgrading this.
The charts going to have more volume. There's going to be constant bids under it. Like go
look at Nebius in may when we
bought it at 23 was the chart as sexy as it is today no in fact a lot of people didn't want to
buy it they're like this is shit stock it went down from the 40s to 20s i don't want to buy it
thing can't hold its gains that was exactly the time to buy it the click house news had come out
the click house valuation was skyrocketing in private markets very few people know new nebius
even owned a 30 stake and the stock was going lower and lower. Those are the moments where you, it tests your knowledge about these industries
and your knowledge about these names to say, what the hell? Clickhouse just, just fetched an $8
billion valuation. The company owns 30%. The stock is trading down. And at that time it was a $6
billion company. It made no sense. Anyone who had baseline knowledge was like, this is a monster
buy. Right. And then before that like, this is a monster buy.
Right?
And then before, this is months before the Microsoft deal.
Now everyone wants to buy it for the Microsoft deal.
That was never the thesis in the first place.
And, you know, that's the beauty of this is companies evolve.
They change.
They grow.
They get bigger.
When you're in early, you become the arbiter of your own fate on these things. Start talk.
You're a robot.
Huh?
You are pretty robot-y right now.
Is it like my voices?
It's like you need to disconnect your Wi-Fi.
Oh, well.
That's bad.
I have good Wi-Fi.
I'm actually wondering what Leo's doing right now.
Is Leo just like...
Is Leo like, alright, I'll buy some photo labs.
Leo literally just sits in my lap
during spaces.
He like lays on me and just listens, just hangs out.
It's like your most loyal audience right there.
Oh, he's the best.
Leo's the best.
With me, he's great.
But if other people are there, he doesn't understand how big he is.
He doesn't understand.
He's like literally an 82-pound lab.
He's a big boy.
And so when like people will come over, because me and my brother are both tall. My little
brother lives with me. And so, uh, he, we're both tall. And so, um, he like, my brother's six, six,
I'm six, five. So Leo doesn't like think we're big. He'll jump on us and like, you know, pop up
at the door and he, we just push them away or whatever. But when little people, not little
people, but shorter people, I don't want to say little people, shorter people come over,
like, he'll jump on them and, like,
knock them over because they're big. But he's just playing.
He's, like, harmless, you know, but people get
scared of him because he's big. But he's, like, a lab.
He's a big, fluffy, goofy lab
and he just, like, hangs out.
But he's the best. Dogs are literally the best
thing ever.
I almost wanted to invest in Chewy once upon a time
because of how much money I spent on that platform,
but I never ended up doing it.
But Chewy is probably my biggest expense
outside of my regular business.
I'm curious, because I'm not a regular
in these stocks on spaces anymore. It's only when I can
find time between work and kids, family and whatnot, like today. Did anybody, because
the whole year has gone by, but did anybody here among the speakers in the panel ever got behind any of these uh quantum stocks
i traded it i used to i used to be on ion q back in the smack days i used to trade it back then and
i traded it to like the the 40s i had the the nine dollar calls they went up like crazy and
i sold them just because they were up so much but never looked back at it the valuations just
never made sense to me but they're great momentum stocks.
I mean, dude, they've done amazingly.
Evan, you own BMNR.
You can get behind that, but you can't get behind Quantum?
He just loves Tom Lee, Jag.
He just loves Tom Lee.
Evan thinks everything's just Bitcoin unless Tom Lee's fine.
Today's not the day, guys.
Today's not the day. I. Today's not the day.
I rolled my calls, Jaguar.
You'd be proud of me.
Maybe I should have rolled them out a week instead of until tomorrow,
but I made some money on my BMNR calls.
But, yeah.
I don't know.
I struggle to buy Quantum, if you want my full truth.
Stablecoin is the Ethereum thing.
I've been behind it for a while so i own q
it's volatility pretty insane so i i've i haven't owned it but well i mean i traded it in terms of
shares but lately i've just been selling call credit spreads put credit spreads on it and the
volatility just pays off like i don't even need it to close out of the money or anything but
you already get paid in the volatility look you know if i'm a jaguar if i'm getting degened into
anything i think someone could talk me into nuclear somehow if there's a point which i still
struggle with at this point before quantum look there's no question that a lot of this stuff is
running on hot air and nothing attached to the fundamental story
that's coherent enough to support these valuation or price or anything. One day,
the rug will get pulled and there will be no floor to be found in any of these.
That's what happened in .com where momentum was great. Everybody was getting rich.
It felt great.
I didn't have much money at the time.
I was still in college.
I was a sophomore, and I didn't even own a computer.
I would go to the computer lab and open up this Windows 3.1
or connect from a modem, that old-school modem,
and then basically try to trade these stocks with $700 to my name.
This was literally 1998, 1999. It felt great.
But the pain that followed when that bubble popped was excruciating too.
Not to me, because again, I didn't have much at the time anyway,
but I know firsthand the people, including professors in Michigan State, that just
lost a shitload of money very, very fast. There's no floor. When the rug happens,
there's no floor in any of these quantum names. I'll be the first to say, and that's why I do
these callers, right? I have a caller in IonQ q i have a caller in seven different stocks in my portfolio
there's no floor in in these in these nuclear stocks i mean come on seriously
aqulo this could be at 20 one year from now and it would not surprise me you know i mean
yes the smr names i agree the supply chain names, I would disagree. Yeah. Supply chain names have floors. Yeah, I mean.
Supply chain names make money.
I mean, don't forget what happened.
And remember when the whole WFH, work from home category, the thematic category blew up in 2021?
How many of those things lost 90%, 80 a year right oh yeah no i agree but
that's that's that i mean there are is differences right i agree with you on the smr names oclo
smr and any these small modular reactor names insane valuations anybody remember zoom video
i agree zoom video symbol z i don't even know how they're still around like to be honest i don't know you
like people couldn't live without that stock everybody had to own it because it was the
thematic leader right work from home get online face-to-face online conversations the daily
active users everything was just absolutely ripping non-stop $500 stock.
Right?
So, yeah, this is all great.
But I've seen enough of it when I know that even the best of the best,
you know, they just tumble big time.
Like even my favorite name is right now, Rocket Lab.
It's a big thematic idea. Space tech huge it's not gonna go away anytime soon is
spending globally on space tech is happening in every part of the world
from China to Australia to UK to United States and it's gonna continue to just
go up in numbers but yeah it would not surprise me that rocket lab at some point on a really really risk
off environment gets cut in half there you go but i love the name yeah it was half like a few months
ago there you go yeah yeah same thing with uh asds like just a few weeks ago you saw the acquisition
of the uh spectrum from echo star sats. And ASD has got cut in half.
And it's more than doubled today.
It is totally set to be driven.
I mean, I would say, you know, the news catalyst that they did have
just in the last couple of days regarding, basically,
they're on track to build out their Bluebird 6 pipeline,
launched the satellite, sending them out to India,
and they're going to launch it on October 14. I say you know that is a bullish catalyst but like i would also say like
okay look um they're still not generating that revenue uh there's a lot of promises right i mean
owning this stock in the 20 range was great the thing has run so much so i'm going to continue
trimming off of it and just rotating the other names like we're just talking about one today i
mean a lot of these opportunities really do come around but like they're not asd is the company i probably don't
for a while but like not in the size that i've had it when i opened in the 20 like i'm going to trim
that one all the way up and then also you're talking about rocket lab like i remember no one
wanted this stock at four dollars i did not buy it at $4. I bought it in the teens, but no one wanted it at $4.
Yeah, I didn't buy it at $4 either. I bought it around $16 and then I just kept buying any
dips I get. But same thing with Tempest AI, which is another one of my favorite stock right now. And
I think it has a huge upside potential. Tempest AI went from 200 million dollars in annual sales three years ago
to now guiding 1.2 billion this year they're gonna yeah it's crazy the the so um and i think a
company is a huge future still but again we have seen these vicious sell-offs when they happen in the hottest thematic momentum ideas.
And yeah, so you got to stay sane through those moments.
And the best way I have always found, you know, so I don't lose sleep over when those happens, is by simply having some sort of hedges in the portfolio.
And for individual names at times
i do these callers and that's what i've been doing for the last couple days
and um and not much on the index level at the moment it's just on individual stocks if they
if i get called away on my ion q position at 105 dollars per share so be it. I would not worry about it.
Yeah, I think people need to realize that, especially new,
like what Sam and Jack are talking about right now is very true.
New traders need to realize this who haven't been through multiple cycles.
You know, if you, if, I mean, I guess if you started in 2020,
which a lot of you did, then maybe you can say that the COVID crash in 2022 was enough of a correction for you to get experience of what a correction looks like.
OK, fine. But that doesn't mean that you are going to learn the lesson.
A lot of people round trip stocks in 22 and then, you know, are now holding names that they don't really have confidence could hold their valuations
but aren't expecting to round trip them again. You will round trip them again when the market
crashes if you don't know what you own. You have to know the difference in themes. There are themes
like Jag brought up the work from home theme. That's a great example where everyone was behind
that and thought the economy was going to change in a way where no one was going to do anything
one was going to do anything in person anymore. And Zoom went to an insane valuation. Peloton
in person anymore. And Zoom went to an insane valuation. Peloton went to an insane valuation.
went to an insane valuation. Look at the stocks now, right? Now the narrative is not alive. The
narrative of like, everything's going to work, even though it is trending that way, more and
more people are still working from home and more and more digitization is happening and more and
more services are going digital. So that trend is still true. There's just not as much hype around it. You see what
I'm saying? Like the idea that society was going to trend to more, a more indoor anti-social work
from home environment did happen and it's continuing to happen, but the stocks spiked
800% in two years on the idea of that. And when the hype faded, even though the trend in the economy
continued, the stocks faded. So you have to know, this is the really, really hard part of stock
picking. In my opinion, this is what separates elite stock pickers from good stock pickers from
just okay stock pickers, is knowing which themes are durable. And yes, in a market crash,
everything is going to sell off. But knowing which themes, we'll see secular tail are durable. And yes, in a market crash, everything is going to sell off.
But knowing which themes will see secular tailwinds and when the markets do come back,
will be the first names to rebound, will be the first names to get bought back up again.
That's the hard part. And to me, there are exceptions. Like in my view, and I'm just
speaking my book and where my money where my mouth is, in my view, those are the industries that,
that, that I think nuclear supply chains, semiconductor supply chain, uh, right.
Aerospace and defense, but specialized aerospace and defense in the mid cap sector, right?
Those are the themes that I think are going to come back. AI data center, uh, robotics.
That's like my money's where my mouth is. are the names the exposures that i have do i think
they're susceptible to drawdowns of course of course they could go down 30 i mean even robin
went down to 30 bucks in the april correction you know that's whatever 140 whatever it is today
you know everything went down stuff is going to go down but the question is is will you feel okay
holding some of those names through that drawdown and into the other side. Did you, Stock Talk, did you or anybody, did you see this quote from over the weekend,
last weekend from JP Morgan's Michael Sembalest?
Let me read this to you, right?
to you, right? This quote came out on Sunday. He said,
This quote came out on Sunday.
Oracle stock jumped by 25% after being promised $60 billion a year from OpenAI.
An amount of money OpenAI doesn't earn yet to provide cloud computing facilities that Oracle hasn't built yet and which will require 4.5 gigawatt
of power, which is equivalent of 2.25 Hoover dams or four nuclear plants, as well as increased
borrowing by Oracle, whose debt to equity ratio is already 500% compared to 50% for Amazon, 30% for Microsoft,
and even less at Meta and Google. In other words, the tech capital cycle may be about to change.
End quote. You know, when you put things in perspective, just the obscene amount of CapEx numbers that we talk about, toss around in discussions on a day-to-day basis, and really think about it, it's like, is this even real?
relationship between OpenAI and Oracle that led to that massive spike on an RPO number by Oracle
would require 2.25 Hoover dams to be built to provide enough energy just to get that $60 billion
number per year from OpenAI. When I read that quote from JP Morgan's research note,
it immediately reminded me of another very, very popular note
that you can Google search this yourself too
from during the dot-com bubble from the CEO.
It's a very famous quote from CEO of Sun Microsystem,
Scott McNeely.
And this is what he said.
I quote, this was in 2002, towards the end of the dot-com bubble.
I quote, at 10 times revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends.
That assumes I can get that by my shareholders.
That assumes I have zero cost of goods sold, which is very hard for a computer company.
That assumes zero expenses, which is really hard with 38,000 employees.
That assumes I pay no taxes, which is very hard. And that assumes you
pay no taxes on your dividends either, which is kind of illegal. And that assumes with zero R&D
for the next 10 years, I can maintain the current revenue run rate. Now, having said and done all
this, would any of you like to buy my stock at $64 per share?
Do you realize how ridiculous that basic assumptions are?
You don't need any transparency.
You don't need any footnotes.
What were you thinking?"
End quote.
It's a famous quote in one of the interviews that Scott McNeely of Sun Microsystems gave back in 2002.
And it resembles very closely to what we heard from J.P. Morgan about that reaction to earnings report from Oracle.
You know, context is necessary.
We can sit here, we can talk about how much fun it is to ride this momentum in unprofitable tech basket
that just keeps
going up and up and up you don't need any basis of any signs anything at all
you just basically pick a number and go and I pick a stock and it just keeps
going up and up and up and there it started off with one or two or five you
know sexy themes and now they're everywhere with zero pre-revenue
companies everywhere just in drones
there's like a dozen now or how many it started off as as these crypto treasury companies one
micro strategy and now everybody believes that if you simply raise capital by doing secondary
offerings and and buy cryptos you can become rich because everybody will come and buy your stock,
such as BM&R. Sorry, Evan, but this is what's going on across the board. This has become a
business model. Enjoy this ride while it lasts. Nobody knew back then too, when I was in college,
during dot com, as to when it would peak. But eventually the time did come. And then
everybody was looking at moving averages and trying to figure out where to put their stops in.
And those stops were getting difficult and difficult and difficult. That's it for me.
Listen, guys, I'm not going full in BM&R like it's a bear market. We're dancing while the music is dancing,
and I bet you this Ethereum dance, if we keep going,
is going to be very pretty up the next little bit.
And these guys are telling me,
I got to go look for what everyone else isn't talking about.
BMNR.
No, I'm kidding.
But I appreciate you guys.
Are we doing a little bit of a workout there, Jaguar?
As soon as I'm done here, I'm going to try to figure out what to bet on.
What's my betting slip is going to look like.
Trying to figure out the parlay bets.
I heard parlays are losers bets.
I heard a number say you should not be doing parlays.
Look, we'll see how far the government can allow these prediction markets to push the envelope before the team of lawyers are coming after them.
Because here's the problem.
Are you in DraftKings right now still?
I use FanDuel.
I use both, but lately, though, I've been using more and more FanDuel.
I was just going to say this, that none of these states are making any tax revenues from these
prediction markets. It's a big loss of revenues for them. And I don't think that all these states
in the past so many years that have legalized sports betting are just going to sit there and
do nothing about it. I think they're going to send a team of lawyers after everybody that is going
into prediction market. And I think there's going to be consequences. And I don't know how or when,
but I think it's coming. And so do you think those consequences get over to Robinhood?
My thought process here is what a great management team to move quickly on something,
do it in an unrisky way. I feel like just take some revenue from it it probably does get banned I think maybe
we'll see I don't think it will get banned
I think the answer to this will be
because this is they're disrupting it
right and so I think they will continue to do
it but I think that
I think one of
two things is going to happen the most likely
thing is going to be both DraftKings
and FanDuel themselves
will also get into prediction
market. They'll say, okay, now you can go to DraftKing and you can bet on where the S&P 500
index will close today. Take the over or under on some number. Or you can bet on over and under on
Apple revenues next quarter. Things like this. And imagine how fun that will be, right?
But you know what's interesting?
At least according to Robinhood and stuff like that,
95% of the volume is on sports.
People really just want to talk sports, bet sports at this point in time.
Even when I look on Kaoshi and stuff like that,
all the markets, only markets that have volume really are sports.
They're kind of difficult.
Yeah. Ultimately, I think the real losers at the end of all this all the markets only markets that have volume really are sports they're kind of difficult yeah
ultimately i think the the real losers at the end of all this are actually not the online sports
betting operators i think they will adapt i think they'll get into the sport the the prediction
market themselves i think the real losers are states government big loss of revenues for them
government big loss of revenues for them and along with it you can say the
Indian tribes because you can't open online casino in any state until you
unless you do a partnership with some you know Indian tribe that's domestically
based in that state right like in the state of Michigan they have drafting
David it's called Odawa I think Odawa if you go to the app here you will
see it right up at the top so that's where the difficulty comes in so I fully expect
that there's going to be there's going to be a pushback with lawyers suing and whatnot but
there's another piece to all of this too that I think it's quietly happening in background that's not
getting enough attention. I think I mentioned this in one of the spaces a couple weeks ago.
Back in early August, all 50 attorney generals from all 50 states sent one letter signed by all of them, all 50, to Pamela Bondi in Washington, asking her to ban
the offshore betting market in the United States, the illegal offshore gambling market on sports
betting in the United States. That's a massive, massive market to go after. That's literally in hundreds and billions of dollars in legal sports betting that happens every year.
You can't find that money anywhere in online sports betting operators, DraftKings, FanDuel.
You can't even find them in casinos, right?
It happens from Cayman Island and other places.
But it's not like they cannot be stopped.
They can be stopped and they can be caught.
Why would they do that?
Because all 50 states believe that if you stop that, that's going to have a huge impact in tax revenue increases for all states, including the federal government as well.
So there's a big move and you're going to get this breaking news at some point, probably with a signature from Donald Trump.
And when that happens, where is that money going to go then?
Well, logically, it will have to then go through one of these sports betting sites.
Draft King, they become the beneficiary of it, or FanDuel, or maybe even the prediction markets.
It's going to go through all of them then. It's a big amount of money.
I can show you the link for that letter if you'd like to read it.
So I look at these stocks that have come down recently,
but I think they're all going to bounce back and give them some time.
I would not be surprised if Flutter is right back to 300 plus.
DraftKings is right back to 45 plus within the next coming months.
Interesting plays.
All right.
We got a hard cut off coming up here a little bit.
Got kids, got life.
The host has got to go and use their phone.
We appreciate everyone for joining in.
Make sure you are following the speakers up here.
Jaguar, I'm curious to hear more if you looked into that parlay a little bit.
What do you got coming at me?
I need to even set some fantasy lineups.
I think I'm going to do a parlay for tonight.
I'm just going to take the plus 8.5 for the, what you call the, for 49ers.
Yeah.
And then I'm going to parlay that with,
I'm going to parlay that with,
with plus 250, or sorry, 250 passing yards from,
from Stafford.
Basically, yeah, because if the game ends up being close, right?
I mean, it's not as big of a spread.
Then I think there's going to be more passing from the Rams, right?
And so that means you would expect him to hit that number 250 yards.
I mean, again, this is gambling.
This is not some stock advice or anything.
There's a 38% chance on Robinhood, 38-cent contract,
that the Rams are going to win by 13.5 points.
Wow.
That's crazy.
So I took the other side of that.
Yeah.
All right.
Book it.
If it hits Jaguar, send it to me.
I appreciate you.
There was a lot of alpha.
These spaces are always recorded.
You can go back, listen to different parts.
You should make sure you're following Jag, Stock Talk, Sam.
If you enjoy this type of live free conversations,
make sure you're following Jag, Stock Talk, Sam. If you enjoy this type of live free conversations, make sure you're following the host of this.
Our amazing person behind the camera up there,
behind the screen, got seven minutes left
where they really have to go
if someone wants to squeeze something in.
All right, I'm going to drop up there too.
Thank you very much, everybody, for having me.
All right, catch up later.
Yep.
No NFP coming out tomorrow morning.
Interesting.
We'll see.
Maybe the...
No more macro data,
stimmy checks,
oxidized.
Again,
can't get a 1% pullback
without the Treasury Secretary
saying we're going to save the markets.
We're going to cut rates in two weeks.
Yeah, I mean...
What a market.
Is the Fed shut down?
Every baby in America starting next year, don't forget, gets $1,000 with the Spy.
So, I mean, talk about tailwinds.
Yeah, it's going to end horribly like it always does.
But enjoy the party while it lasts.
What else can you do?
What else can you do?
You guys know.
I mean, I don't mean. I'm not going to go on the rant again.
You guys know how much I ran about this.
There's no point in trying to predict when it's going to end.
It will end.
Just have fun until then and make sure you manage your risk on the way down.
And when those monthly charts start breaking down, in fact, you know, we talked about this
about the spy, right?
On how long it holds trend on the higher timeframes, right?
Yeah.
We talked about this like three weeks
ago me and m were telling you guys pull up the the spy chart go look at your 200 week moving average
or even if you don't look at the 200 week right let's look at over the past five years
i mean even the 200 day outside of your big corrections right he's been pretty reliable
but let's say you want to say, you know, StockDoc,
I don't even want to worry about the breakdowns.
I want a line that never gets broken
unless it's really bad, right?
Look at your 200 week or look at your 100 month
or your 50 month or your 200 week.
Those lines never get broken unless it's really bad.
How do you know that? 2022 defended the 200 week, defended the 50 month. In fact,
they're basically overlapped. Go look at the candle at the lows of 22. Okay. You could have
been long 22 and said, you know what? If the market breaks down below the 200 week move rates,
then I'm really going to unwind. But if it def that spot that i'm going to be a buyer i'm going
to be a dip buyer if that was the only thing you thought in 22 none of the other noise that
listen to any preachers if you just said you know i'm just going to watch the 200 week of the 50
months you'd have been fine you'd have been a dip buyer instead of a seller at the lows same thing for april april the lows are 479 the 200 week was at what like 460 ish back then
okay where was the 50 months in april 450 months was around the same spot 450s 460s and the lows
were 479.
Okay.
Oh, what about COVID, right?
Okay.
Well, COVID was a real market crash.
Even in COVID, even in COVID, the 50-month was defended.
Go look at the eight.
Pull up your charts.
Pull up your 50-month moving average on your monthly charts.
Go to your brokerage, your trading view, or wherever you have it.
I'm not making this up.
Go look at it 201 77 was the lows of the candle but look at the close of that monthly candle
above the 50 month in on the covid crash where everything went down 80 it's still still still
still still still defended the 50 month moving average so moving average. So, don't listen to me.
Don't listen to anybody who comes on these spaces and talks about narrative.
Just watch the 15-month moving average on the S&P 500.
Period.
And then go to sleep at night and rest easy.
That's it.
For the rest of your fucking life.
That's it.
Just watch the 15-month moving average and ask yourself regularly is the market trading
well above the 50 month moving average with strength on the lower time frame if it is you
should be long and if it's not then you should start asking yourself questions when when you
see monthly breakdowns you start even if you start getting towards that 50 month line because
keep in mind to even visit it you need a significant drawdown, right?
So you've already managed stuff on the lower timeframes, or you should have by the time that point comes, right?
But when that point comes, then you have to ask a couple of hard questions.
What do I really want to own?
What do I really not want to sell at all, right?
And there should be stocks like that in your portfolio.
There should be stocks like, no matter what happens here, even if we do go to the 50-month, I'm not going to sell this. And those moments are where your
conviction is tested. That's real conviction. We talk about conviction a lot when bull markets,
it's fucking easy to have conviction. You have conviction or anything. When the stock goes up,
you're singing your own praises and having conviction, right? The hard question is going
to ask when the stock goes down. That's when you really know, what do I actually want to own?
Like own, not just make money on the stock,
but what piece, which company do I own a piece of
that I want to continue to own a piece of?
That's when you really sit down and think about your thesis
and you're like, you know what?
Do I really know why I own this?
I said I knew the company, but I really know it.
People start finding out, they don't know who the board members are.
People start finding out all sorts of things when stocks go down.
I don't advocate for that.
You should do what I do and learn the company like a glove before that happens so that you can make the decisions instantly rather than having to figure it out when it's down.
So it doesn't take a genius, it doesn't take a scientist, it certainly doesn't take a top caller or a bear
to figure out when the markets are going to top.
They will tell you through price.
Not me, not Big B,
not any of the guys who have come up
and shared macro theses recently.
The market will tell you,
hey guys, it's over.
Simple.
What's up, Imp?
I've just got that hard cut off right now. I've got, Imp? I've just got that
hard cut off right now. I've got to jump. I've got to...
Good. You're good. I mean, I need to do
I need to go to the gym. I've been sitting here on spaces
all day. Four hours.
Yeah, I know, right? Great day.
Great day. Alright, guys. We'll see you next week.
Yeah, everyone have a great weekend.
We'll be back on the show on Monday.
Whole thing's recorded, like Evan said.
Take care of everyone. See you guys.
If I have a second, tomorrow, we're going to be doing a live stream.
Em's going to be driving.
This guy.
This guy is a beast.
If we ever see that, I wish that Empt Kent was up here, but I appreciate you, sir.
Go enjoy whatever rest of the night you have. Thank you.
