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ETFs | Stock Market Talk
Recorded: April 15, 2024 Duration: 3:21:55Space Recording
Full Transcription
Awesome, awesome. Good morning, everybody.
Let me know down in the spaces chat in the bottom right if you were able to hear that music right there or not.
I was not able to as the host, but I am curious to hear if you guys as listeners were able to hear that music just there, the intro music.
But interesting day in the market we're shaping up to be.
It's Monday morning.
I hope you guys are excited for the stock market to be open again.
Let me take a quick look at futures.
I know we just got the retail sales data, which came in above expectations.
That tends to be a good thing.
It means consumers are spending.
Retail sales.
I guess it means prices might be up.
But it tends to be a decent sign.
Look at where futures are.
Russell is down pretty hard, but the rest of the futures are up.
I know Tesla is probably going to end up being the big news of the day, in my opinion.
Them doing job cuts.
Apparently 10% of their workforce, Tesla is considering letting go.
But yeah, it looks like in pre-market, most of the stocks are green with like an apple, red, but has moved from off the low.
So, now to down just 0.4% was down.
What, like 1.3% earlier in pre-market trading?
So, alright, not a terrible move for Apple going on there.
We did have a Goldman Sachs that reported earnings this morning.
Also a Charles Schwab.
A Goldman Sachs is probably the big one.
EPS was $11.58.
Revenue was $14.2 billion.
Beating expectations of $12.9 billion.
Let me dig in and find you some more in-depth numbers for Goldman Sachs.
We also do have a Fed speaker speaking right about now.
Fed Williams.
Latest CPI is important into affecting forecasts.
My own view is that rate cuts will likely start this year, according to Fed Williams.
So, there.
We'll see how many rate cuts there are.
Net revenue for Goldman Sachs is $14.2 billion, being expectations of $12.98 billion.
Global banking and markets above expectations.
Investment banking revenue above expectations.
Looks like most numbers above what Wall Street was expecting for Goldman Sachs here.
Total deposits of $441 billion.
There you go.
Assets under management, $2.85 trillion.
Below expectations, it's $2.92 trillion.
So, a number or two in there.
It's not above expectations, but definitely one to keep an eye on.
All right, we got AJ coming up.
Yeah, continuing to dig around, we do have Tim Cook.
He was reported to be in Vietnam visiting one of the iPhone giant's most important manufacturing hubs.
Story out of CNBC, I haven't dug in too far into.
Apple's quietly grown into Vietnam's third largest smartphone vendor.
Fair enough.
Tim Cook arrived in Hanoi, Vietnam on Monday.
While Cook will meet with Apple users, developers, and content creators during the two-day visit.
All right.
Interesting one.
We'll keep an eye on it.
Digging around.
Well, good morning.
Good morning, sir.
How you doing?
How are you?
I'm doing good.
I'm excited for the market to be open.
Just digging around, looking to some of the news.
Yeah, just kind of starting out the day, starting out the spaces here.
We had the retail sales data come out, came in above expectations.
We had a Tesla story, and I think the Apple one, which I haven't gotten to yet, was also pretty big.
Yep.
Those retail, we can talk about those retail sales numbers if you want.
Sure, go for it.
That one's always secure.
So, right, strength of consumer, strength of economy, right?
Two things I've always watched.
Retail sales month over month.
Not year over year, but month over month, right?
I want to notice trends on a three-month annualized basis.
And also personal income, personal spending, and stuff like that, right?
I know there's like a million different data releases at 830 that we all talk about, right?
But at the end of the day, why do I care about those two things the most?
Number one, as long as a consumer has more income coming in than expenditure,
and as long as they continue to spend that income coming in versus holding it, it's very hard to correct the economy into a recession, right?
Whether or not rates stay where they are, whether or not companies grow, whether or not they fix their FCF,
whether or not they fix their forward guidance, they'll bake that all in, right?
And you'll get those, like Irvin would say, those earnings coming around the corner, you'll get those expectations baked in now,
and you'll see some of those reactions because they want to front run that expectation, right?
Think of Lulu as an example, Adobe as an example, right?
It's not that they beat, but they just lowered their expectations and people freaked out,
which is just normalizing their behavior for forward growth.
In a market where it's almost 4%, it's going to be for a while, right?
So I wouldn't take that as a bear signal.
But what I would say is, as long as these two data points on a three-month basis continue to show positive strength, right?
It gives Fed more confidence to wait, which also gives the stock market more signals that the economy is strong,
which also tells you that you don't need to flip your narrative and freak out and course correct.
And that is exactly what they're doing, which is why they're in the waiting game, right?
And all the previous instances where they have cut and the economy and the stock market has crashed,
the economy was crashing before the Fed cut.
Just go read up about it, right?
And then the stock market followed.
So what I'm trying to say is stock market economy are not always in line,
but they are in line when no one has money to spend.
Because that's just the nature of the game, right?
So if the Fed wait too long in this cycle and you have the sign showing you that spending is decreasing,
that is your early signal that the Fed is behind the ball.
And by the time the Fed cuts, you would have had enough signals already to tell you that we're struggling as an economy.
Now, the vice versa is true.
If it continues to show strength by the time they cut, that's not a bearish sign, right?
And that's the way I read that information.
So that's why I care about those two data points more than personally anything else that comes out of 830.
Gotcha.
Appreciate those thoughts there, AJ.
Cam, I see we got you down in the crowd below.
You should come up.
I'd love to talk about the Bitcoin halving.
That's one of the big news stories, which will end up coming later in the week.
And I'm sure a lot of those crypto stocks will be extra volatile this week.
Even the Bitcoin ETFs, et cetera, should be an interesting one in that direction.
Actually, that made me think.
What's up, Cam?
How you doing?
Yeah.
I'm doing great.
I'm doing great.
Excited for the stock market to be open again.
I'm getting this post pinned up there.
I like to do a weekly recap or weekly kind of get ready for the week.
Jeez, that took a lot to get out.
Oh, well, it's Monday.
But yeah, I like to do that post to help you get ready for the week.
And the Bitcoin halving was first page, front and center, talking about that's going to be a big story for the week.
I did pin that thread up in the nest above, one of my favorite ones.
But yeah, what are we watching for this Bitcoin halving this week?
We'll talk more about the actual event itself.
But what about the three, four, five days that we have running up into it?
What are we watching for this week?
We're looking to just see the price stabilize, especially after the recent events of the weekend.
It was essentially a liquidity grab, but we've seen the price shore up around, you know, that's $62,000 mark.
So really, we want to just stabilize and see some breath back into the markets here and just take a couple of days to just breathe.
Post-Bitcoin halvings, the events themselves are generally non-events with consolidation followed.
But now we've got the U.S. having the spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Hong Kong have just approved their spot ETFs.
So this is times different.
It's times majorly different as the volumes, the flows are not necessarily relying on historical price action.
And they're following these institutional investors coming into the market.
So I think we're just waiting out.
It would be nice to have this one.
Let the halving play off, the event take away.
And then in a couple of weeks, just kind of review what's happened and go in for the next one in four years time.
But yeah, I think the event itself will play itself out to be a non-event.
So that's kind of what I'm watching for the next couple of days.
It's just let the price set a little bit here around $66,000.
Try and reclaim the previous all-time high, $69,000.
That would show a lot of confidence into the market and follow to the rest of the crypto markets.
So yeah, that's kind of what I'm watching.
Appreciate that.
There's definitely been a lot of hype running up into it.
So it would make sense for, you know, you buy the hype, you sell the actual events type thing, which has happened over the last little bit.
And we'll see if that continues.
So interesting story.
I'm seeing, I just did see something flash on my screen that I want to end up going, but my computer's being slow.
So the Donald Trump stock down 17% in pre-market.
Apparently they're doing a secondary share offering, selling some stock, raising some money.
I haven't gotten the full details in front of me, but I do know that the stock is down 17%.
Interesting move happening over there.
We did also have the Goldman Sachs earnings this morning.
Banks should be on watch a little bit.
Charles Schwab reported earnings as well, but that's leading to some interesting moves.
DJT, like I said, they're down about 17% in pre-market off of them doing a share offering.
I'll get more details on that one in a second.
It was actually doing something a little different and taking its own time.
But yeah, let's see what else is moving this morning.
Apple's still down.
Meta's being strong, up 1.3%.
Google's acting strong as well.
So Mega Cap 7 across the board are positive.
Majority of the market looks to be positive, actually.
Raytheon up 1.4%.
That seems about in line with what we should be expecting.
Defense contractors might be looking for a good day coming up here, which makes some sense given the whole Iran.
Israel stuff that happened over the weekend.
Although I think that did come in below, definitely with the worst cases so far.
And I feel like the market was starting to prepare for a slightly worse scenario that actually ended up happening.
So I'm in the camp that we end up moving higher off of this.
But we shall see after today.
I think today will end up being a big day to see how that goes.
And we are so far shaping up for it to be a green one.
Definitely something we'll be keeping an eye on.
AJ, any other news stories catch your eye this morning?
No, not news.
Just looking at individual names, getting sentiment down.
Goog's a good one.
VIX crush as usual.
That's a good one.
I'd continue to look at Oxy and Zom.
Obviously, banks had their stuff.
Watch out for TSM and Netflix this week on Thursday.
Or Wednesday.
Wait, actually, TSM's Thursday.
I don't know which day Netflix is.
But big earnings on there.
They're both Thursday.
They're both Thursday.
Oxy is Thursday morning.
Netflix is Thursday afternoon.
Yeah, thank you for that.
So Netflix has had a big recent run, obviously.
I'd be careful on that.
TSM, we are.
A lot of the NVIDIA news and the previous TSM news and CHIP news,
it could be possibly already priced in.
We don't know.
But a lot of news has already front-run TSM.
So just keep that in mind.
And as you continue to watch those sectors.
But yeah, outside of that, obviously, the only other thing that I'm watching,
outside of the Mag 7 that are rotating and continuing to rotate, right?
Tesla showing sometimes weakness.
Apple showing strength.
Amazon showing strength.
Finally, Google strength.
I would keep on mind Verizon, TWLO, TILIO, Southwest Airlines, LUV, and then CSCO and Cisco.
So those are my other random tickers that I'm watching.
I'll let Kevin give our news spiel.
What's up, Kevin?
What's going on, guys?
How you doing?
Can you hear me?
Yeah, we got you loud.
Yeah, I got you.
Sorry.
I was posting a tweet.
What's up, Kevin?
Good morning, Sterk.
Good morning.
Yeah, it's all good, man.
Twitter's been, or X has been super glitchy, it seems like, over the weekend and even until today.
Yeah, so I'll post this.
I write a weekly prep report, so I'll post it in the comments.
I know it's a little bit of a pain when it goes into the nest.
But we had the retail sales data.
And one thing that kind of highlighted basically last night where I published it this morning
is that either way, if that number came in, it seemed like it was going to be ultimately
bullish for stocks, right?
So if we saw a better than expected number, that signifies that the consumer is still fairly
strong on a relative basis.
Now, it's not inflationary adjusted, so we always have to keep that in mind.
But I think the market would actually like to see, wouldn't mind seeing a strong print,
even though we do have the inflationary impacts and we could have the rates pushing back or
the rate cut measures being pushed back.
Seeing that we have a strong consumer in a rising inflationary environment is also,
you know, signifies strength for the economy.
Once you start seeing the consumer spending less, but inflation is going up, and if we have
job losses, then we have a little bit of a problem.
And then on the other side of that, if it came in weak, the market could say, okay, we
might be seeing some fractures when it comes to the consumer.
Maybe that's going to push up the rate cut cycle.
So I felt like that number, this number that we saw today was going to be more of a win-win
all the way around, unless we saw like a just huge, huge major break.
We did see retail sales up 0.7% on a month over month basis versus the estimate at 0.4%.
That being said, I think the bulls, you know, they have a week where economic data for the
most parts fairly light.
I think outside of the retail sales data that we have today, the manufacturing surveys
or the regional surveys that we get from the Fed, from the New York Fed, which is going
to be called the Empire State Manufacturing Index.
And then what we're going to see from the Philly Fed is really going to give us a really good
picture as to the manufacturing landscape overall.
And the biggest component that I'm focusing on is the price is paid component.
It's actually been a fairly good gauge, even though it is a survey basis.
It's been fairly accurate.
And if we can continue to see a deceleration and rising prices, I think that also would
be somewhat bullish for the market here.
You know, the elephant in the room, obviously, is going to be what's happening overseas.
I'm not going to get into the politics of that, but I just wanted to just kind of call
out, like, let things marinate a little bit.
Get your information from both sides before trying to decide on a particular trade plan because
of geopolitical news, there's a lot that's going on that we are just not going to see
on the surface.
And that's kind of what happened this weekend.
There was some, I would call them meme coins and stable coins were signifying that gold
was going to spike and do all this crazy stuff.
And that was like Saturday afternoon, right?
And so it's like, let it marinate a little bit.
Right now, when you're looking at the energy market and oil, I just got off a segment doing
this.
When you're looking at oil, yes, there's geopolitical risk.
But guys, there's only two real factors that you have to really focus on here.
It's going to be the supply lines or basically the infrastructure for oil supplies.
If there were targets in Iran, extraction targets and things of that nature, yeah, we
could see maybe oil spike to the upside.
I think the bigger risk is Iran actually retaliating and trying to constrain traffic within the
Strait of Hormuz, which is a lot more significant than what we have seen in the Red Sea.
Strait of Hormuz has a significant amount of oil flow, not even just oil flow, just patrolling
products as a whole, going to and from those countries around that strait.
So I think that would be the factor that we have to keep in mind if we wanted to retaliate.
That would be another way in order to try to push oil prices.
But as I wrote, there's nothing in the fundamental data right now that suggests that we should see
a rapid spike in oil, and there's nothing in the economic data that suggests that we should
see a rapid decline in the price of oil.
I've been calling out $80 to $85.
It seems like a good price range right now.
That level has been holding up.
It's been treated as an area of support over the last couple of trading sessions.
But we have a nice bullish uptrend that's been intact since December.
So from a technical standpoint, it's still, for the most part, a bullish market or can
potentially advance.
But I would make like 10% of your base case for a trade plan should be on the geopolitical
just in case a geopolitical environment changes and shifts, which it will.
You still have confidence that your other fundamental and technical factors are going to be in place
in order for a bull run or a bear run or if you want something to be stagnant, depending
on your trading options.
So that's kind of what I have my eye on for this week.
Also, I have called out Raytheon, too, which is now called RTX.
But they're the ones that helped develop that Iron Dome system.
And they also produce the Tamar missiles, which are used for that system.
And there's a report that Israel utilized around a billion dollars in order to shoot down
the incoming projectiles, whether they're UAVs, whether they're missiles.
Now, that's the totality of all of their munitions.
So not just the Iron Dome, but some of the other structures that they have in place, anti-missile
systems and things of that nature.
But they're obviously utilized a lot of those munitions over the weekend.
Seems like there's going to be some fiscal measures that are going to be put in place,
especially here in the United States.
But I would suspect other countries are going to help out as well in order to replenish those
systems that and flow for Raytheon.
And I think that market would probably gravitate to that particular stock.
Doesn't mean that you hold it for the long term or anything like that.
And I'm not making a trade recommendation.
But in the defense space, that would be one that has probably the most exposure to this
particular conflict in the near term because of that Iron Dome system, which has been a
very successful system, certainly.
So that's kind of what I got on my radar for this week.
I'll kick it back over to you guys.
Appreciate all of those thoughts there, Kevin, as always.
You didn't give us any mention about oil or gas.
I saw some stuff around that over the weekend.
I believe they were spiking for a minute.
Might have come back down, given everything and how the weekend unfolded.
I saw some headlines around precious metals.
I think it might have been aluminum specifically, which also moved to new all-time highs.
Although, let me get a front.
It's 9 a.m., so this tends to be a pretty big news dump spot.
So I'm going to get this in front of me and see if there's anything interesting that's
coming out.
But yeah, what are we watching in all those areas?
The kind of more commodities, oil, precious metals space of the market, which I did see have
a couple headlines, gold as well.
So yeah.
Yeah, so I kind of touched on the energy side of it.
Once again, there isn't a true catalyst for an upside or downside move.
I think the fundamental structure is definitely in place.
Refining rates continue to incrementally increase.
We did see a buildup last week when it came to the EIA data for gasoline.
So we might be hitting that level of perfect supply meeting demand in the market right
now.
So unless that actually disrupts or unless we have a double down when it comes to consumer
and consumption of gasoline products, or we do see continued bright spots out of China.
Now, China has had some good-looking data, but it's kind of reversed itself a little bit.
The CPI came in a little bit weak.
We want to see CPI for China actually going up instead of going kind of sideways or going
down.
So that's something that we saw some weak data coming out of China.
But I think that's going to be the major factor.
Once again, kind of X out the geopolitical stuff and just look at the actual market dynamics
right now.
I think we're in a good spot.
It could be range-bound for right now.
And that's perfectly fine.
And that's perfectly fine.
I would also say, too, if this escalation does actually increase and it goes beyond Israel
and Iran going after each other, and let's say Saudi Arabia gets pulled in, then that's
when I would get a little bit more cautious because Exxon and Chevron, they do have some
infrastructure that's around that area, especially when you're looking at the petrochemicals business
or the chemicals business.
That would be kind of like that one sign that might put a little bit of pressure if that
does become a target.
But guys, we're not even close or even near that.
So I'm just kind of bringing it up as if that development does happen, you start hearing
Saudi Arabia is going to get actively involved.
That's one thing I would kind of focus on.
But right now, we're not there.
Heating oil could also continue to see a little bit of a catch-up trade.
It did not trade like gasoline and crude all over the last couple of weeks, actually like
the last month and a half, if you will.
So there could be a little bit of a catch-up trade there if we do have some form of a constrained
supply when it comes to heavier crude products.
And that could also give that a little bit more of a lift.
And then also, if these refining rates in the mix or the split within the refiners are
focusing more on gasoline, they'll supply gasoline inventories a little bit more, maybe
constrained diesel inventories a little bit.
And that could also give it a little bit of a move.
I'm not sure where it's at right now.
But overnight, heating oil was actually outperforming pretty much all of those other products.
So that's that.
The aluminum side of it, right?
Like there's this huge boom that's going on right now.
There's a lot of speculators in this market.
But you can also make the case that emerging markets are showing some pretty good economic
signs.
And that's where also demand is going to come in for aluminum.
And I believe nickel also moved to the outside overnight as well.
So the Mexican peso is considered to be a risk-on type of currency.
That saw some advances yesterday as well.
So just kind of keep your eye out when it comes to the emerging markets.
Their currencies are a lot more volatile.
But that can also give you that indication that maybe there is some optimism for global
growth in the long term here, which I think there should be.
When I say long term, I mean three to six months because I really focus on week-to-week basis.
So I think that's kind of where you see that metals trade.
For gold and silver, a lot of talk about gold over the last couple of months.
And those that follow me and a couple of you are down below here, I've been talking about
silver and that ratio.
Silver has outperformed gold this year.
Even though gold is hitting new all-time highs, silver has a little bit more of a higher beta
and then also has that industrial exposure.
So we continue to see a flight of flows going into silver.
But any type of reversal could be a pretty dramatic one.
So protect your risk, protect your stops.
And then last thing I will say is grains, you know, keep your eye out on that.
I continue to talk about it.
There is some supply that's coming online from Argentina and Brazil.
There's still some price wars going between the United States and South America.
But we are getting a little bit of a cold front this week.
Actually, I believe we're supposed to get some snow like tomorrow or Wednesday in Colorado.
That can actually disrupt the early planting season.
That can push prices higher.
And then also the geopolitical events could also have a little bit of ramification when
it comes to grains.
So I think the overall trend is still to the downside.
But on Friday, we did see a significant amount of short covering within the grains from soybean
to corn.
And I think that's a good indication that, once again, those that have been in these positions
for a very long time are trying to flatten themselves out because they don't know what's
going to happen next.
And there's like a very dynamic situation that's kind of going on there.
So that's what I got for the commodities, man.
I mean, everything else from the equity side, let's see if we bounce back today.
20-day moving average has been acting as an area of resistance since Wednesday.
We need a break above that to keep this bull case going.
For the technicians out there, it looks like we have a little bit of a bull flag that's taking
place.
You can never confirm a bull flag until you actually break out of the channel.
But I know I'm not the only one that sees that.
So if other people see it, maybe we do get a little bit of a bounce back here.
And then I'm sorry, the last thing I will say, liquidity is going to be key.
All right.
CME liquidity tool, it's a free tool.
I'm not sponsored by them.
But guys, I really, really think that you guys should utilize that tool.
What it does, it basically shows you the book depth on a day-by-day basis from multiple
products.
So the E-mini S&P 500s all the way down to rough rice contracts.
And market makers utilize the E-mini S&P futures as well as the NASDAQ futures in order to hedge
their portfolio.
And so you can see a lot of action in the futures market in that depth.
And what we saw over the last couple of weeks is that liquidity has actually gone down as
far as the amount of size of the bid and the size of the ask.
So it doesn't take much to really move a market.
We guess what creates these gappy markets that we've seen over the last week, week and
a half.
You want to see those flows starting to come back in.
And if we can continue to see some size, we do see a reversal and a nice little amount
of size coming back into the market that will also dampen down the volatility.
It'll dampen down the VIX.
And then that'll also give us a little bit more strength.
So more liquidity is probably better for bulls right now than less liquidity at this point
because the headline news on less liquidity or low liquidity markets can dramatically change
price.
And that's why we kind of have these odd 15 point, 20 point drops in the E-mini S&P in
a matter of two minutes, three minutes, four minutes.
So yeah, that's what I got.
Perfect.
Kevin, I appreciate the in-depth analysis on these morning spaces and every single time
we get to hear you.
So a lot of stuff to look out for this week.
I, you know, futures and free market and everything can always be some interesting moves, especially
the night before.
We actually did a space at 6 p.m. last night, right when the futures opened.
It was definitely up a little bit, but it's just funny to see and watch the markets at that
point with the people who were trading then versus who will be going live when the market
is open.
I can't lie to you.
I'm still in the boat of, hey, you know, this is we're still in that bull market area.
The market wants to go up.
So it can handle a good bit of bad news as long as it's still getting a little bit of
good news in there.
And it can then kind of gap up off of.
So I think that this market will end up having a pretty good day today, but we'll see if I
end up eating those words later in the day.
I may still be positioned for us to move higher in the short term.
And we'll see how that one goes.
But AJ, I see you got your hand up.
Emperor Dore, you should come up.
Yeah.
Come on up, Em, so you can talk.
The comment about liquidity, right?
So Kevin hits a good point, but something that I love, love about this is talking to
people about this.
Buybacks, right?
Share buybacks, et cetera, et cetera, right?
When earnings are around the corner, institutions and other people are locked out two weeks ahead
of times, right?
So that draws out liquidity, right?
And now we have, as Evan would know, who's our stock market news guy for all earnings
coming up huge over the next two to three weeks, which in turn draws down the liquidity,
right?
And once these are gone, liquidity enters back, whether it's long or short.
Either way, it comes back, right?
So to your point, to Kevin's point, to everyone else's point, right?
I want people to just keep that in mind, right?
Yes, it leads to aggregated moves a lot faster up and down, but also timing, right?
If this was occurring during a time where share buybacks are turned off, I would be a
little more cautious.
Now, I'm not saying I'm bearish, 100% or bullish.
I'm neutral right now.
Obviously, we have a gap up.
Fair.
I've been uber bullish for like five and a half months.
I've been peeling back for the last two weeks.
Now I'm neutral going into this week, and I'm going to wait for earnings before I make
a new position for the next couple of months.
But what I'm trying to say is the timing of it is perfect, because now you have a potential
new catalyst, whether you agree with it or not, who cares, timed with earnings that everyone's
going to wait for now to decide, do we break this range of 150 points that we've been stuck
in, or do we sit here for another couple of months, right?
Just like we did in the 4,200 spot, just like we did in the 38 to 3,900 spot two years ago
for two and a half months.
We sat in 100 point box for over two months, right?
So just keep that in mind.
I know people get tunnel vision sometimes with trending markets, trending directions, which
we've had for five months.
Go back and read the history.
Markets only trend 28% of the time.
They consolidate over 72% of the time.
I'm playing the odds that we continue consolidation until broken, right?
And the earnings, if they come and go and we're still stuck in the box, the next catalyst
will be June.
And that's where I stay.
Appreciate the thoughts, AJ.
Emperor Dora, I see you're on actually both spaces at the same time right now.
You want like a computer and a phone or something?
I'm everywhere.
I'm everywhere.
At the same time.
Nice.
What's the setup though on the back end for that?
Uh, so I joined off the computer for, on Jordan's space over there.
Joined, my normal is always off the phone.
So join this one, but, uh, I jumped over there.
Just say hi to Jordan and the boys.
Uh, yeah, but like how does your computer work?
Cause I found it.
I can't talk to my computer.
They fixed it.
They changed the computer if you haven't done it in a while.
Um, it's, it's not, it's not great, but it, uh, it works.
What are you watching this morning, Imp?
Uh, right now I'm digging into some of the, the earnings from this morning and, uh, I love
what AJ just said.
So me and AJ both have, have been kind of in this camp for a while.
Um, I actually tweeted a few things last night just for some perspective on that, but we've,
we've talked about this, I don't know for how long AJ, cause the market, like you just
said, loves to consolidate.
Uh, mentioned this on the spaces last week, a few times.
You know, we, we're in the same range still.
Uh, and, and it's like, I think people get a little bit spoiled over this last, you know,
crazy four months we've had because it's either we have to make new all-time highs or we're
going to pull back 10%.
And I keep saying like, we, there's big consolidation pockets in the market.
Um, and, and we're in one and it's normal.
And we're also in between catalysts.
Kevin was talking about catalysts and stuff a while ago.
So we're just now touching earnings season.
So we, we don't really, don't really have any major catalysts other than that.
Obviously, you know, you have some fed data and some rate stuff here and there.
Um, last year we had almost exact same date range, uh, from basically late March till around
the 20, 24th of April.
We had the almost exact same thing happen where we had basically three to four inside weeks.
Uh, so like on a technical analysis type of, of look at things, if you look at QQQ, for
example, we, we've had the last three weekly candles are within, if you go back four weeks
ago, the last three weekly candles are within the range of that one weekly candle.
So we, we're not only are we in a range overall since, uh, NVIDIA's earnings back, uh, late
February, but we are even in a tighter range within the range.
So we're, we're in like a box within a box right now.
And, uh, you know, obviously over the weekend we had a lot of geopolitical stuff and people
thought we were going to get a black swan event or world war three, all this stuff.
And, you know, I'm not saying that those aren't possible, but if we look at the, the bigger
picture probabilities, like AJ was saying, um, that's one of the main ways that I focus
my trading strategy, both intraday.
And then in the bigger picture is what, what's the probabilities here.
And AJ hit it right on the head.
I mean, 28% of the time the market is trending and the rest of the time it is sitting there,
you know, consolidating it's, it's, you've got periods of accumulation and distribute distribution.
You have periods where, where the market is just consolidating.
Right.
So that's the main thing that I'm looking at.
I really liked that AJ brought that up just to give some perspective back this morning.
And, uh, you know, it seems like a lot of people were looking for things to just completely,
you know, fall off the cliff yesterday, um, and into the day, but there, there's a really
big support level right below us that it's, it's honestly, it looks like it's so strong,
uh, especially on QQQ and tech.
It looks like it's so strong.
We haven't even fully touched it.
If you look at 18,000 on NQ, for example, that, that, that level is super, super strong
going way back to February.
And every time we get within 50 points of it, we immediately reverse.
So some of what I'm looking at there, I'm going to continue digging through these earnings
and listen in a little bit, uh, until we get a little closer to the, to the bell.
I'll throw it over to Kevin.
I see that hand up.
Yeah.
And also just to kind of call out to, it's not like the old, the only reason, but there
is seasonality taking place right now on the indexes because of, uh, tax filing deadlines
that are coming up.
So we usually do see a little bit of a sell off.
Um, now once again, it's not the only reason, but there is, uh, there is a seasonality for
this week, uh, for last week or this week, last week and the week before.
So like the last two and a half, three weeks, right.
Where we do see sellers that come in in order to cover tax receipts.
Um, we have the same type of situation that occurs.
I believe it's like the second week of October, second or third week of October too.
So for those that get extensions, um, once again, I'm not making that kit saying that
that's the only case.
Right.
But I just wanted to kind of capstone what you were kind of talking about, like we saw
last year and things of that nature is there is some, there is some fundamental reasons
why we kind of see some of these sell-offs and not the only reason, but there's a catalyst
there.
Yeah.
And, um, and that's the key, right.
Is the catalyst thing.
And it's, it's funny you say that because there's, there's always even more data that
you can put with it.
So I went and pulled, uh, I went and pulled some of the stats.
I can post a chart on it here in just a minute.
Um, but it's seasonality over the last five years, we typically have a big week, uh, late
in March.
And then we have, and this is over five years of data.
And then we have about three, uh, to four red weeks, but they're very small red weeks.
And that's over the last five years.
I'll post that in just a second.
And then, uh, like you were saying exactly this time last year, it makes perfect sense.
Um, with the, you know, today's the tax deadline date, right?
Four 15.
So it makes perfect sense what you're saying as well, too, that lines up with even more
confluence there.
Um, you know, as we're just touching earnings season and you have all the tax stuff going
on too.
So I hadn't thought of that.
I'm glad you added that, but exactly the same date period.
Let me go pull this chart and I'll get it up top here in just a minute.
Kevin, did you have any thoughts to share on the Goldman earnings this morning as well?
Was there anything interesting there?
I know I personally think banks are a little bit of a black box and very tough to follow.
So I don't tend to have too many takeaways from the numbers.
Um, but was there anything you were watching this morning that you thought was interesting
and a Schwab report as well?
I don't know if we want to talk about that one, but Goldman.
Yeah, I, yeah, I can't speak on the, on the Schwab.
I thought so.
Right.
But, um, yeah, so their earnings report was actually fairly decent.
And the thing that actually put them over the top is their trading revenue.
So, you know, you got it.
They, they better be paying their, their, their traders some bonuses this year because
that really, uh, they, they did actually have a pretty nice little bounce back.
We also see, uh, investment banking revenues, uh, that were up, uh, 32% on a year over
year basis.
We do know that there is obviously some activity that is taking place that they are a part of,
uh, which is good.
And then they also had a buyback of around $1.5 billion in the quarter as well.
So that provides some stability.
This stock has been marred by, uh, bad news because of, uh, their internal operations.
It really kind of tried to, uh, go and explore the, the retail market.
Um, and that's just something that just was not, um, a part of their portfolio.
It just did not take hold the acquisition costs for a lot of the, uh, products that they
wanted to bring out to the retail market.
Just that ROI just was not there.
So they've been stripping that out.
I think there's a confidence thing that's also going on with, uh, Solomon.
Um, and there, there has been some questions around him.
I'm sure after this earnings announcement, that's probably dampened here a little bit,
but I think it's a good, it's a good report.
And I would, uh, I think we kind of talked about this last week.
I'm not sure if it was in a power hour or when we were doing this last week, but don't expect,
like knockout earnings from a lot of these financial institutions.
And the ones that are going to have the bright spots are going to be the ones that have investment
banking activity.
Um, and that's what we are, we are seeing right now.
Um, the investment banking activity was very strong.
And then also once again, the trading and the trading side of it, we have ranging markets.
That's when they usually are pretty decent.
Um, so, uh, I think that's also something that kind of contributed or directional markets.
That's when we start seeing them, um, benefit here a little bit.
And then when we have ranging markets in the fixed income, uh, realm, that's also when we
kind of see, uh, their activity when it comes to profitability, starting to push higher as well.
So I thought it was a decent report.
Um, but once again, let's start getting to some of the regional banks.
And I think the regionals are really going to tell us a little bit of a different story.
Um, completely different dynamic that they're dealing with.
So that's kind of what I'm looking for, uh, going into this week.
We've got a couple of them.
Yeah.
A couple, a couple names reporting this week.
Like I said, the big ones that I'm watching are, um, Netflix and Taiwan Semiconductor.
But there are a lot of other big names that, that report this week.
We have UnitedHealth, Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, all for tomorrow,
all tomorrow example, for example.
And then Friday we have American Express, Procter & Gamble as well.
So a lot of different sectors, uh, should be having one or two individual names.
We even like have a United Airlines, uh, ASML, et cetera.
Watch out for, uh, Taiwan Semic.
Yeah, that should be a big one.
That one I think is going to be a big one because of the sector.
A hundred percent with ASML coming out the morning before.
It doesn't tend to move a crazy amount of other stocks.
They also, uh, ASML reports in the morning, but them being a year,
a European company, it's going to come out at like 1 a.m., 2 a.m.
Um, Drew Baglino is said to leave Tesla.
Interesting.
Uh, KC, what's up?
Good morning, sir.
Good morning, Evan.
How are you doing?
I'm doing good.
I'm doing good.
How are you, uh, how's the day treating you so far?
Uh, so far so good.
So, uh, shout out to Sharky, who decided to swing some QQQ calls on Friday, right before
the closing session.
So, uh, I grabbed a few of those with him and then I also swung SPY 515 calls for today
over the weekend.
A little bit risky move, but historically speaking, I believe the S&P 500 ends up closing green,
uh, majority of the time on Mondays.
So, uh, just fairly confident with the, uh, call swing there after SPY's been getting slapped
down a little bit.
So, uh, this morning, the 515 calls are in the money.
And then with QQQ being up almost 1%, those calls with Shark will be up as well.
So it's looking like a good Monday morning.
Ooh, I love a good Monday morning.
Good tone setter for the week.
I'm hoping it's, uh, it's a good week.
I'm hoping the earnings help us, uh, go, uh, go in the direction I want it to go.
But honestly, I just hope we get some, some movements.
It's always a good time with that.
Uh, Mr. Wolf Financial, good morning, sir.
How are you doing?
We're good.
What's going on?
What have you been talking about this morning?
Uh, a little bit of everything.
The, the Tesla news that came out, um, definitely was something we focused on, focused on that retail
sales data, um, everything we got coming forward this week.
So it was a, it was a good conversation so far.
We got official confirmation on that Tesla news.
Um, well, there was multiple stories actually.
Well, I don't know.
We got, um, Electrek and Reuters saying that they've seen an internal memo from Elon Musk
saying that they're going to be cutting more than 10% of workers.
Um, Electrek was saying up to 20%, but Reuters was saying more than 10%, so somewhere in
that range.
There was also a story that just came out that Drew Baglino was leaving the company.
Um, that one I haven't seen extra confirmation for yet, but should be one to follow.
So Tesla's had a, had a couple stories.
Layoffs definitely being the big one.
We'll see what that stock up ends up doing.
Uh, layoffs, uh, can, the stock can take it one, one of two ways can either go up or down,
or I guess stay the same.
And we'll, we'll see, but, um, we don't necessarily know which way, yeah, we, we, we don't necessarily
know which way, um, layoffs are going to send the stock.
I, I mean, I listen, Wolf, if you want a prediction, I personally think this is still
a bull market.
The market wants to go up over the weekend.
Wasn't as bad as feared.
And I think the market's going to have a green day today.
Um, more than, uh, where it's just going to open up.
I think we'll, we'll close the day higher.
So if you need a prediction, Wolf, there, there is one.
You should also check your, uh, your, uh, email for the, the newsletter that, that may
or may not be going out during the spaces.
Nice.
I saw DJT issuing more stock.
They really care about their shareholders.
There you go.
Um, I did get those charts.
So I was talking about with, uh, with Kevin Wall ago, posted up at the top performance trends
over the last five years for both QQQ and spy.
If you want to see the actual data on the seasonality, obviously you have other layers of, of confluence
to add in there.
So everything you always put together with your overall trade plan, but some really interesting
visuals of the data up there at the top.
Nice, nice.
Wolf.
Wolf, we'll, we'll, we'll, we'll let you look at that.
Shy, good morning, sir.
How you doing?
Morning, morning.
Uh, great to see some green after all the foot over the weekend.
But, uh, so a couple places I did on Friday that looks like it's gonna, um, kind of work
out is QQQ.
I bought some, um, what is it?
The leverage QQQ.
Let me figure out what the exact ticker is.
Yeah.
QQQ.
QQQ.
I bought, yeah, I bought some of those cause it was right at the 50 day protected that on
Friday and it looked like a strong, stronger than expected finish.
And it looks like today it's going to follow through and I really do think we're going
to clear, oh, wow.
We already did actually four 41.
So like we're, once we clear four 41 is business as usual for QQQ and big tech.
And I do think, uh, earnings will be another catalyst and nothing will really change on
the trend until then.
Uh, I also bought some, I shorted the VIX with that explosion last, um, Friday where
it hit 19 album note.
Now I've known, we're just like, that's a wild movie.
They're the first in a long time.
And generally I thought it was due to geopolitical news and it's a news driven type of volatility.
And that's usually a green light for me.
Okay.
I'm going to buy SVI X to capitalize on this like bump in volatility in the markets.
Cause it's most likely going to return to the mean of 15 or 16, not even 16, 15.
And it looks like that's playing, uh, as well.
Tesla was surprising to me.
I thought it'd be green.
However, this is an opportunity in my head because it's not the same, but it kind of is
when meta went through all these org changes two years ago of this getting leaner, focused
on profitability.
And once like things went back to normal in the environment for like business spending
and like the tech recession is essentially over, you can see how much they're thriving
now.
Cause it came out of this, that, um, tough period, much more leaner.
Right now there's like growing top line, um, and their earnings are just growing as well.
I think test is the same instance where they're going to get through this like really, really
tough Evie depression.
Like the industry isn't in a depression right now.
And once they get through it, which they absolutely will, they're gonna be a lot leaner.
And they're also going to have the FSD grow to compound with this leaner org that they're
going to have after this, uh, unfortunate layout.
But they have 140,000 employees, like that's a shit ton of employees.
So they definitely have some room to get leaner.
And I think they're gonna thrive from this down the line.
So I do think this is a buying opportunity.
However, the charts are just so ugly.
So they're, uh, just be, be cautious of it.
In my opinion, I would love to see IWM kind of bounce more.
This looks like a major lagger and last week was just an ugly week for small caps.
And even prior to that, there was a really failed breakout in two 10.
And there's this, they're notorious for just head fakes after head fakes on breaking
outs, especially at their tier base.
It doesn't look like it's ready in my opinion.
And especially with one or two interest rates for this year, higher for longer.
Like I just don't see an environment where this is going to be the callous where they're
going to finally break out of this tier base.
So, uh, I could see a transition where a lot of people put their money on small caps breaking
out of the space to now rotating back to big tech, because that's kind of how the, this
rally has been past six months where the big text has been killing it, printing cash and
just like going all the time highs after week after week, I could probably see that, um, that
rotation going back towards that.
So I am putting them play my TQQQ.
I did take all of my small cap exposure within IWM trade off end of last week.
And yeah, that's kind of one monitoring, but I do think I agree with your sentiment, Evan.
I do think if we hold this 441, I, at the open, I do think we're going to go like higher.
Like I wouldn't be surprised if we get like a 1.3, 1.4% day in QQQ.
Yeah, definitely something that I'm keeping an eye on, but, uh, but we'll see.
We got the market opening in a minute here.
I see we're joined by shark as well.
Good morning, sir.
How are we doing?
Hey man, how's it going?
Good morning.
I'm doing well.
I'm excited for the stock market to be back again.
Always a good time.
Excited for earnings season to be back as well.
So, uh, so yeah, I'm ready.
I'm hyped.
Um, what are you watching today?
This is your, this is your prime time with, uh, with the earnings season.
My computer's acting a little bit slow.
I can't lie.
MacBook Air was probably a mistake getting that.
I should have gone with a pro, but here we are.
Well, what happened is they, they announced those, uh, next AI chips that are coming out next week.
So they have to go into slow down all app.
Yeah, the throttling.
Yeah.
It's time.
Time's make us all angry.
So we're ready to buy.
Should've got a Dell.
Maybe one day.
Yeah.
No, never.
But, uh, but I'll get the pro next time.
We'll see.
Market market is now open.
Market's open.
I think it's moving a little bit lower here off the open.
I'm editing now.
Yeah.
I think they would probably see a little profit taking here right at the valve.
Ooh.
Coming, coming up a little bit, actually.
Let this first couple, couple candles play itself out.
Value growth is selling off a bit at the open.
Okay.
Market on close in balance, uh, 340 million on the buy side.
Not much.
Hmm.
GCT running.
There you go.
Tesla.
What's it doing at the open here?
Moving a little more low.
All right.
Those, those QQQ calls and those spy calls, they opened up, uh, pretty nice.
I got a trim there for just about 35% on the spy 515s.
Nice.
Ooh, Marvell's moving around here.
And then, thank you, Sharky, for the QQQ call swing as well.
Let's go.
Marvell's having a strong open here.
Nice to see.
Ooh, Alazon's coming down.
All right, guys.
I'm going to, I'll see you guys later for power hour.
I hope you all have a good, uh, trading session here.
And, uh, let's see how this market reacts after everything that's happened over the last couple of days.
Appreciate you as always, Kevin.
Everyone should make sure they're following Kevin and all the other amazing speakers up here.
If you heard this morning, uh, you're definitely much more prepared for the day and the week.
And a big part of that is thanks to Kevin.
So, appreciate you, man.
We'll, we'll talk later.
I do see we got, uh, uh, a Mikey, a Mr. Stock.
Let's join us up here.
Uh, Apple.
Apple and Tesla are getting absolutely obliterated here at the open.
Especially Apple.
I'm not, not surprised for the Apple.
I mean, Apple had what, two, two days with about a five to 6% move.
Also kind of a flight to safety move there.
So, I wouldn't be surprised to see it fill this gap up.
I mean, I'm sorry.
Fill the, fill it down a little bit and pull back.
It's, uh, below pre-market lows right here.
Gap down a bit.
Out of everything that was on my watch list going into the open,
the only two red names that I had were Tesla and Apple showing the relative weakness.
So, yeah, it's not a surprise to see the, the red continued downside there on those two names.
I'm watching AMD as well for some downside, at least to fill this gap here.
It's, um, it's just not been acting well.
Amazon getting smoked a little bit too.
IWM is going higher.
It's actually getting a little bit of a pop.
Good morning, everyone.
Oh, good morning, Mikey.
How we doing?
Good morning, Mikey.
Happy Monday.
Happy Monday.
Coming in hot here.
Three minutes off the open.
Tesla 30-minute price prediction chart is posted to the top of the space.
And on my timeline, looking for a move here right off the open.
And it looks like we're starting to get it, actually.
Yeah, I need to give my stuff a little bit of time.
GCT.
What's happening with Amazon's doing nice?
Bro, look at GCT.
We're up 8%.
There's AMD basically filling the gap.
Wow, salesperson's $77.
Just broke $78.
Jeez, this really did this past week.
Sorry, I cracked open another one.
I will say they're 50 days, $77.
And they haven't really tested that this year.
So that's probably going to – I'm monitoring that for a potential bounce.
Amazon's in a gap fill now.
Wouldn't be surprised to see some of these names, you know, just fill the gap, pick up
some buyers, and then see where we go.
I'm going to play a little bit slow this morning, Monday mornings, you know.
Yeah, Monday mornings are an interesting one.
There's a lot of pent-up energy in the stock market, though, I find.
A little bit more than most mornings.
I'm hoping we go higher on Amazon.
God, I'm looking at this AMD chart.
This is freaking ugly.
I just don't even – like, it's going to go 130.
Unless it – there's just no volume.
The volume shelves from, like, between 160 and 140 is just anemic.
And there are all the technicals going downside.
I was charting that one last night, too.
And it was one of those where, like, I don't want to short the hole here, but it looks like
a short.
I know.
I'm, like, too much for – I don't have kahunas to put a short on AMD just for that
whole industry.
You never know when it just explodes.
But if you've been in a short on that name –
It's a good pair of trades if you don't belong with another name.
Yeah, yeah.
If you've been in a short on that name, I don't see any reason to get out yet.
Especially now we've broken kind of that main support that we had at –
Was it, like, 161-ish, 160-ish?
Watch QQQ for a bounce here.
Ooh.
I would take a nice little QQ bounce.
Although, just open up the portfolio updates and just –
A little nice bar down there.
All right.
Oh, this Tesla selling is relentless.
Down about 2% on the day now here.
167.7 for Tesla.
Interesting one to watch.
I made a prediction for Amazon over the next hour.
Pinned it up in the list above.
If you want to see it, you can.
If not –
Oh, up hot.
JPM, 190 call.
Ooh.
What's JPMorgan doing?
Nice.
Up 2.4% on the day.
MS, $90 call.
MS has earnings tomorrow.
Well, Goldman Sachs had earnings this morning.
The bank earnings are a day or two extra spread out.
But Goldman's up 5% off of strong earnings.
What's Schwab doing?
Why is Salesforce tanking 4%?
Ooh.
Is there any news flow that happened over the weekend with them?
I'll take a look.
BAC, $37 call.
IWM continuing to go upside here.
Watch the $200 psych level.
IWM continuing to go upside here.
Oh, rumored acquisition of Informatic for Salesforce.
That's why it's down 4% today.
Interesting.
Good morning.
I want to know why snow is so far down.
Can you guys hear me?
Yes, here.
Good morning.
Good morning.
Okay, I'm taking a little short on MES and the futures.
And then why is snow?
It cannot get over like that $1.59.
I have a trend line.
I have a trend line that snow rejected for the third time.
Yeah, I was going to say snow got rejected at $1.60, which is massive for them.
And they kind of held up better than most end of last week.
So I do think there could potentially be a fail breakout and is rotating towards names that got destroyed.
Nice job, KC.
Thank you, thank you.
NVIDIA, 920 call.
Ooh, 920.
AMD, 165 call.
Goldman Sachs, he continues to be constructive on health of the U.S. economy.
Says the market expects a soft landing, but the trajectory is still uncertain.
Tesla's getting hammered here at the open.
Yeah.
A combination of the story over the weekend with the 10% plus layoffs and then Drew Baglino leaving the company.
Baglino, yeah.
So that just hit the new squawker, I think.
I mean, it's been out, but they just reiterated it.
All right, I'm going to take another scale here on the QQQ calls.
Here we go.
Boom.
Scale QQQ calls.
Nice trade, KC.
Right off the 200 EMA on the five-minute time frame.
A dial pharmaceutical is popping here.
Alpha Delta, EDIO, Lima, ADIO.
Here we go.
Sure is up about 11% now.
16% now.
ADIO.
Beautiful.
All right, backtesting the EMAs, the 9 and 21 here.
Make sure you're moving stops up to break even or in profit here.
This trade does not go red now.
Yeah, we came down to the halfway Fib retrace from back, I think it was actually the CPI
day.
So basically that range we created last Wednesday, we rejected this level a couple times last
night, reclaimed it, and sat right above it.
Great spot there, KC.
Thank you, sir.
Hey, Wolf, check your text.
Ooh, let's change the title to Spaces, too.
Yeah, NVIDIA new high day.
And he's acting strong.
Mikey calls it out, and here we go.
Here we go.
Here we go.
Here we go.
Here we go.
All right, what else are we watching?
Bitcoin's acting okay.
We got the halving coming up later this week.
We talked a little bit about that earlier.
Keep an eye on that one.
Amazon, not to where it was in pre-market, but it's moving higher off of the open.
SMCI, 950 call.
Damn, I haven't looked at SMCI in a little bit.
Fair enough, it's still up that high.
916, pretty decent.
It's actually holding up better than I thought it might have.
Fair enough.
Shay.
Apple, 180 call.
I just want to know when Mercado Libre is finally going to turn the corner back.
They need to split so bad.
That's the only way that's the catalyst they need.
The price of the expensive thing kind of leaps or whatnot.
They need to split bad.
Yeah, I agree.
I wish they would.
And that last earnings report was kind of that one-off big tax hit they took.
I think this next earnings is going to continue the trend that they've had the last three to five years of amazing growth and earnings.
So, we're really, really hoping by the next earnings we turn this corner back off or turn this corner back around.
So, I'm wanting to nibble into equity some more that I have from lower, but I'm trying to be patient.
Is Costco ripping?
Someone just sent me a message about Costco.
It is up over a percent.
Yeah, it's up eight.
Oh, yeah.
Ooh.
That's a nice-looking four-hour and daily chart there on Costco.
Yep.
I'm very interested.
Keeping my eye on Caterpillar.
It's been in the same, like, trend box, and it tested the bottom of it basically Thursday into Friday.
Keeping that one on watch, it's been a super strong name since the beginning of the year.
Microsoft.
Look at that freaking...
430 call.
Yes.
Pump up tech so the cue calls go higher, Mikey.
Will do.
Meta's got a five-minute hammer candle, and then Apple had a five-minute inverted hammer there at the bottom, both getting nice pops to the upside.
Tesla is still fading.
Tesla is in a daily squeeze to the downside.
It looks like a failed double bottom and now a potential head and shoulders.
So, just watch for a sell-off down to 165.
After that, 163 and 160.70.
That sounded like the biggest line ever.
So, bonds are getting crushed.
And then Tesla down to 140.
Bonds are getting crushed today.
Have you guys seen that?
TLT below 90 again.
Tim, I was just pulling up Dixie to look at that as well.
Bounced off of 106.
I was really hoping we would come back below 106 on the dollar.
KDL.
$3.36.
Shares halted on a circuit breaker now.
NVIDIA ripping back up here, going for $8.90 next.
AMD going in my 165.
AMD going in my 165.
For the last 30 days, we've had about a 25.75 range average on ES.
So, I've marked those pivots potentially off on the chart, put it up top.
Thank you, sir.
That prediction I made for Amazon, which if you go into Spaces chat, or it's next to Shark's pin post up there.
Some could say that was the perfect prediction for Amazon.
And I am the American Sniper.
But that's just one person saying it.
Just a rumor, some could say.
You know what happened to American Sniper?
Um, I don't know.
I don't want to go too deep into it.
But no, I don't necessarily know.
I've seen some interviews, so he's fine.
He is most likely not fine.
No, that's a fair point.
He is not fine.
Oh, God.
I'm not touching that one.
And if you're unaware of Evan, he was killed.
Oh, was he?
Yeah.
He was, in fact, killed.
Evan, when you were like, I've seen some interviews, I was like, that's going to be AI.
Wah, wah, wah, wah.
Yeah.
What a great movie.
By Bradley Cooper.
Shout out, Bradley Cooper.
Great movie.
All right, Wolf, I'm going to send it out in a second.
Whoa, I'm seeing Amazon 185 calls for June 21st, roughly about, holy shit, 6.5 million.
Mm-hmm, mm-hmm, mm-hmm.
Was that a, oh, Chris, mystery?
I heard the same thing.
It sounded like it.
Q, Q, Q, bouncing at that same level again here.
It's in Q.
That's our huge level, 277, that we've mentioned so many times at this point.
It's actually on your volume profile.
It's the point of control from year to date, basically.
So, Sharky, I like what you said while I go looking at the average range, and also want
to add Monday is typically our lowest range, total range intraday throughout the week.
Monday's actually your lowest amount of movement across the indices in Q&A as well.
Love to set a range and play off of it on Mondays.
Let's break it.
Amazon, new high of day above pre-market high.
Let's go.
It's absolutely ripping.
No way.
Ripping, babe.
You're not Joshua-ing me, right?
188.69.
It is above Friday's opening high, just barely, but yeah, it's getting a nice pop here.
Mike, what strike were those?
What strike were those Amazon calls that you said?
185.
Evan, bring Frank up.
Oh, sorry.
Yes, sir.
Frankie.
Evan, I know you think your Amazon prediction was good, but you should check out the Tesla
one that I put in the top.
Hit on the first candle.
There you go.
I think mine might have hit on the first candle, too.
Oh, first candle, Warriors.
What's up, Frank?
Morning, guys.
How are you?
Doing great.
Good start to the day.
My Amazon is ripping.
There you go.
I sold out a half of it because of you.
530 call.
I sold out a 210 to currently at 170, so it was Frank.
Then you can just hope you're wrong.
It's a great theory.
We're just ripping across the board here.
I'm seeing more bearish flow on Tesla, so just watch for a continuation downside, and
I'm seeing more bullish flow on NVIDIA, so watch for a continuation upside.
Apple's pulling back a little bit, too.
It feels like we're back into where we were the rest of the time, that Tesla and Apple
are not participating.
The rest of the Mag 7 is acting pretty strong.
Yep.
I mean, as an Apple bull, I would take Apple going up, but I guess it is what it is.
What do these?
Tesla's going to go down another 20 bucks.
First case always is stock going up and making you money.
Second best thing is your prediction hitting.
Third best?
Well, actually, no.
First best is...
I get a really good tweet out of it.
Second best is stock goes up, I make money.
Sign of the times.
Yeah, exactly.
Although, now that I'm trading a little bit and I may or may not have an Amazon call right
now, it might be flipped.
When it's the long-term stuff, I can care less day to day.
Shout out to the 800 people in here.
Let's get this thing to 1,000.
If you haven't already, hit that retweet button on the space.
I just retweeted it out.
Let's get this thing to 1,000.
SMCI, new higher day.
NVIDIA, new higher day.
AMD is about to make a new higher day.
For those who took the call-outs, congratulations.
Don't forget to secure profits, please.
Yep.
AMD getting that really nice pop.
NVIDIA just broke above 900 and still flying higher.
NVIDIA's got a trend line it needs to get over up here and hold over 900 and we're cooking.
Well, if it's scheduled for 10, 10 a.m., by the way, the newsletter.
Oh, nice.
I thought it already went out.
Thanks.
Come on, Amazon.
It's pulling back a tiny, tiny bit.
Yeah, Apple's getting incorrect.
Damn, just like that, NVIDIA 904.
Oh, I know.
AMD and NVIDIA are just...
AMD are 165 calls.
They're almost in the money.
Oh, my God.
Oh, Mikey, the 910 ones you called out.
There might have been 920 on NVIDIA.
920s.
But those aren't even that far off at this point.
Fair enough.
No, Microsoft at 430 should be in the money today as well.
SMCI should hit 950.
Wow.
SMCI.
Look how many buyers were waiting on AMD at 160.
Mm-hmm.
We're going to have to break the ice.
All right.
If anybody's in the QQQ calls, manage those calls.
They're still up very nicely.
They're still green.
I'll post the chart here in just a second for the reason behind that trade.
Yo, quick shout-out to the homie Jesse Henderson in the audience.
I'm currently inside of his apartment in Harlem trading over here.
So...
Oh, shit.
Yeah, yeah.
I know.
He's got a beautiful apartment.
Yeah, it's nice in here.
I like it.
I like it.
I'm chilling.
I'm listening to New York City around me.
Hearing sirens and garbage trucks.
Tesla 165 puts coming in active.
Just having some za'atar bread and tzatziki.
Very classic NYC.
Tzatziki.
Tzatziki, y'all.
I love eating some tzatziki.
Microsoft, do high a day.
Where's Microsoft at?
Nice turnaround on Amazon as well.
Apple down 1% on the day now.
Ooh, Microsoft is strong.
Yeah, that's a nice movement there.
Amazon's still holding above that pre-market, though.
Dixie's ripping a little bit more than I want it to.
I mean, it makes sense that it's ripping, but I don't really want to see that continuing to go up and making highs.
Geez, Tesla.
Geez, Tesla.
Alright, fair enough.
You guys weren't lying.
Oh, man.
Evan, Jimmy John's just DM Dally.
Really?
Yeah.
That's cool.
Jimmy John's is actually good.
Yeah.
See what we can line up.
Uh, actually, yeah, Jimmy John's is good.
Jersey Mike's is very good as well.
Jersey Mike's is, like, crazy how much stuff they put in the sub.
Yeah.
Jersey Mike's is good.
I play sacks.
That's just the truth.
10 a.m. coming up.
Watch out.
Tends to be some news here.
Packets.
Business inventories and home builder confidence index coming out at 10 a.m. Eastern.
Not the biggest news stories.
My newsletter will also be sending out, so that's actually some major breaking news.
You're welcome.
Stock market tanks.
It would be funny.
You see how much Mark Cuban's paying in taxes this year?
Was it, like, a quarter billion or?
Yeah.
Yeah.
Like, $220 or something.
$288 is what he said.
Jeez, $288.
Happy tax day, everyone.
Don't forget to pay.
Didn't he, like, sell a bunch of the Mavericks or something?
Yeah.
I think that's what this actually was.
I think that's what this actually was.
There's actually an interesting conspiracy with that, that he's, like, trying to build a big casino or something down, like, southeast of Dallas.
That'd be cool.
Phoenix Suns guard Grayson Allen agreed on four-year, $70 million extension.
Casey, what's your bot saying about, um, yes?
Duke boys for life.
You want me to give you the inside scoop before 10 a.m.?
No, when you're ready.
You usually got to pay extra for that kind of action.
No, no, so, uh, currently the bot is short.
Okay, because I'm short still, so.
But we got data potentially for a little mover here in 20 seconds, so, um, we'll, we'll see what happens.
ES moves so slow sometimes.
It's the only thing about trading it besides NQ.
It's just a very slow ticker.
I have a, uh, a pretty big battle here of, you know, profit-taking over the weekend versus, you know, people trying to buy or still thinking they may come down.
There's just no, uh, no clear direction here.
That data should basically be hitting the wire.
Again, I don't think this is too much that's going to move the market, but.
Tesla has had one green candle this entire morning in 30 minutes.
Business inventories came in, in line with expectations.
Housing market index, in line with expectations.
Both in line, uh, sideways it is, I guess.
Fair enough.
Ooh, the newsletter should have just, Microsoft New Hive Day.
Hey, Wolf, can you change the setting on the newsletter so that you can read it without being subscribed?
Actually, I'll do it.
Yeah, but both those data points came in line with expectations.
Shouldn't really give us much movement, although the market is moving higher right now.
Um, I guess maybe in line is not bad, so the market's going to take it as good.
Uh, IWM just made a new low of day.
NVIDIA, it's actually coming down a little bit here on the five minute.
NVIDIA, 9.06.
Just the fact of how expensive it is, and just, um, dollar-wise, not necessarily, like, P.E. or, like, whatever, internalized.
Um, it just moves so quick.
AVGO, 14.50 call.
9, 10 and a half a second.
Kind of crazy.
Bro, Evan, you're killing it on Predictogram.
82% in the past 30 days, you're at a top one now.
Top dog.
Was, am I now, I know I was a little bit behind you.
No, no, no, I'm looking at it right now.
You're, you're number one, I'm number seven now at 77%.
Jeez, I need to get, I need to make some moves this morning to get up there.
What can I say?
I'm number two on the seven day as well.
It's been a good time.
This is what got me to start trading.
I can't lie.
I was like, all right, I'm killing it.
Let's test the waters.
Let's go.
I remember we were all talking, asking you, uh, in California.
What's going to do it?
And I guess it was just this.
I was going to say that futures chart on, um, RTY doesn't look great.
In one year, you'll be trading a dog with hat.
There goes IWM.
Nasty red candle to the downside.
I watched the five minute per day trading.
If I was going to day trade it, it looks terrible.
Yeah.
IWM relative.
Yeah.
At least on the press.
Yeah.
Shark, I got M.
I got M into the shit coins, I guess, because he was sending them to me this weekend.
I have not treated one, but he's got me looking at him on Saturday morning at 8 a.m.
I don't know what I'm doing.
Well, I think he even might've gotten, uh, Frank there.
I think he might've sent me a message that said, uh, what did he, it was, I was actually
going to tweet it.
I don't want to put him on blast.
No way.
He was like, it's, he's like, it's cloudy.
And I'm looking at coins.
I'm like, dude, it's 4.30.
I was Friday.
Yeah.
I bought it.
Uh, AV.
What is that shit?
Wait, what?
AVAX.
AVAX.
Okay.
AVAX is not a shit coin.
That's like a legit blockchain.
Um, I bought.
Nice.
I was going to say, there's no way like you figured out how to trade Solana meme coins.
That takes like, it takes, you got to put your head down a little.
No, yeah.
To get those other ones, it's, they make it so difficult.
You got to transfer it from, you know, one coin to another coin.
It's like, you got to jump through a hoop.
You guys are turning Frank into a degenerate trader.
Yeah, right?
And now it was pretty, it was a little bit of fun.
It was not, you know, small.
Throwing pennies at it.
But I'm long it, so.
Another Tesla person, like, uh, Rohan Patel, like, not, not low down, is leaving Tesla.
It's a couple, uh, executives.
Yeah, interesting.
Wait, are these, like, they're part of the layoff plan or they're, like, resigning after the layoff plan?
I don't know.
Damn, Evan.
Someone on call sheet made a hundred grand last week.
There you go.
What the fuck?
Jesus.
Did you guys see, uh, MKBHD, like, bankrupt that AI company in, like, one sentence?
Uh, you see what you're saying is he did a review on the humane thing yesterday and said it sucked, pretty much.
He said it was the worst piece of tech he's ever reviewed.
What was the ticker for that one?
Uh, it's not publicly traded, but it's, um, the humane AI pin.
Got a bunch of hype.
Yeah, I'm gonna look that up.
All right, IWM just got a nasty candle down.
That was a really, really good short there.
Let's give it up, yes.
Yeah, I'm looking for a little bit more downside here on Spy.
So, Spy and IWM both show a five-minute squeeze, um, and it's been trying to curl downside since 945.
IWM got the squeeze in the five-minute move down.
Spy has not yet.
It's still kind of relatively flat.
I think it's worth mentioning that ES has not made a higher high in a couple weeks.
Oh, boy.
Like, on a four-hour chart.
Uh, Google is getting, uh, that's four green candles in a row here on the five-minute, just straight up.
Evan, we got new Jets uniforms and a logo.
Oh, boy.
Yeah, I did see.
I didn't look too far into it, but...
Sorry, it doesn't look very different.
Yeah, that's what I was just wondering.
Heh.
It's like in 1999 when Japan redesigned their flag, and it was literally the exact same thing.
They just made the shade of red slightly brighter.
Jets' uniforms aren't amazing, so it's not like it's what we're, like, um, you know, goaded at.
That's okay.
All right, I'm about to take a scale here on Spy.
All right.
Oh, there we go.
Just gave up the 0.5 retrace on ES as well.
It had reclaimed it.
Just took a scale here.
This is, again, now, like, the fifth time we're hitting this area.
Out half of the position here.
Kim, you were short ES, right?
Yes.
Yes.
Oh, there we go, baby.
Oh, they got rid of the black.
No way.
All right.
I'm going to sell another quarter position here.
I'm out three-quarter position.
Oh, Kim, this is...
What is happening?
Jeez.
Yes.
There we go.
I'm just showing you guys I can trade with the boys.
Oh, we're opening rain.
Oh, we knew that, Kim.
Let's go, Kim.
Oh, the ATM bot strikes again.
All right, I'm in a runner now.
That's mine.
Holy shit.
Shy, that was...
Holy shit.
What a candle.
Shy, that was the newsletter hitting people's inboxes.
Oh, my God.
If you are subscribed to my newsletter, my Wolf, Shy, we're doing a data visualization one.
Yeah, check your inbox.
Dollar up to the higher day.
I think that SPI graph that we sent out in the newsletter scared people off a bit.
That was a nasty candle down, too.
That was a beautiful candle down.
Oh, God.
Well...
The only thing is with that tick...
I mean, it takes a while on that one.
You got to be patient for it to go your way, I think.
Yeah.
I was in SPI 510, April 19 puts.
I got them at $1.75.
They went to $2.25 there on that drop.
I'm going to mark the orbs.
Here we go, baby.
ATM bot.
Short.
Alert.
Alert.
Alert.
Alert.
That's two for...
Sorry.
Two for two today, upside and downside.
Still in football mode?
Alert, alert.
It just happens.
Sound like Derek Carr up in here.
Omaha, Omaha.
Omaha, Omaha.
I got a DM or two asking about the newsletter.
I did pin that up in the nest above if you guys do want to see it.
Get subscribed.
Cool stuff coming.
Very quick read.
Like three minutes.
Yeah.
Oh, and it keeps going.
All right.
I'm scaling out majority of the position here.
I'm going to leave one contract left and that's it.
Ooh, a little runner guy in there.
That's nice.
I'm going to let him run.
Get some exercise this morning.
And I swung silver overnight.
Not you.
And I'm glad I got out because it just...
It got...
I got out this morning on open and it got pumped.
It's getting pummeled.
Really?
Silver's been strong and I know you've been backing it for a while now, Kim.
Yeah, I swung it last night.
Holy shit.
But it's...
You know, when it makes those big moves, it gets hammered down.
I almost shorted it, but I didn't.
So, I didn't trade it both ways.
Look at the VIX right now.
I was going to say, did something drop?
Because the VIX is exploding and you've clearly seen the market just like...
The five-minute candles are disgusting in the past couple of months.
Really, it's not based on Donald Trump's court hearing.
That's the only thing I've really seen on the news.
I mean, I think bonds...
That's why I was mentioning the bonds this morning.
I mean, the bonds getting smashed down and the yield's way up.
I mean, I'm always kind of cautious when you see those big moves.
I know you are too, Frank, typically, right?
But I'm out.
I didn't ride it the whole way down, unfortunately.
Yeah, well, damn, that was a good downside one.
Yeah, right before that one.
Watch, watch.
They even broke it again.
Let's go.
We're fully in a gap fill now.
Are we still short, please?
Wow, QQQ's about to go red.
20 points.
Oh, these contracts are up $110 a piece.
Thought there'd be some profit-taking, but not like that.
Did you take SPX?
Yeah, or SPY?
I wish.
I took SPY.
I traded the futures instead because the contracts were a little expensive.
I'm all out.
Is this insane?
Rocket alert, siren sounding in northern Israel.
Dude, ARKK is down 11.5% this year.
QQQ is up 8.2%.
What are they doing?
You know what's wild?
Coinbase is a huge weight at ARKK, and it's still down 11%.
It was the largest holding for a good little bit, but yeah, Tesla.
Makes some sense.
Ooh, actually, Brendan, those do look cool.
Watch this, 512.50 here on SPY.
Whenever I see DJT, I do just think Dow Jones transports in my head.
Yeah, yeah, I can't get over that.
Israel War Room Twitter account is the one that reported the rocket alert sirens.
I think NVIDIA is coming down next.
That's your dirty mouth.
I know, right?
Too bad Mikey isn't on.
Talk the other side.
Talk a little SMCI.
I can't wait to see that tweet, Evan, today, like five times.
It's like, IRS, no, we're not going to tell you how much you should pay.
Me, $4, IRS, jail.
It's like, just the full match.
I had to post the one that was like, don't forget to post all your, or report all your
illegal transactions.
It's tax day.
You got to do some stuff.
Also, the day that the Titanic sound great.
Oh, really?
I don't know.
I don't think so.
It's close, though.
Because I remember my friend's...
Oh, yesterday, yesterday.
Yesterday.
Sorry.
Then it was my friend's birthday yesterday, I think, actually.
Fair enough.
Yeah, shout out to Facebook for reminding me that it's my little brother's birthday today.
That's, yeah, what is one of Facebook's best features?
That's top tier feature.
Okay, to be fair, I have six brothers, so there's a lot of birthdays.
Well, like, you legit have a wolf pack in your family.
There you go.
I have multiple other step-siblings.
I'm not counting in there as well.
Mark, it's still moving lower here, although coming back up a little bit, actually.
Cuse.
Cuse is in the gap.
All right.
It's still up about 0.3% on the day.
4.39.
Still in that box.
He loved the box.
Okay.
What's that supposed to mean?
SMCI holding.
Oh, nice.
Well, not nice if you're in shorts.
Shai, I'm going to be 4 for 4 on the predictions this morning, so good luck catching up.
He's not even here.
Oh, he is.
Yeah.
Good luck catching up.
What a heater you're on.
Jeez.
I mean, yeah, I need to make some plays.
Let me see how my plays are doing.
I did bet for a Tesla bounce on a field breakout, and I just did some upside.
So we'll see.
We'll see, Evan.
We'll see at the end of this week.
It's going to be a volatile week.
Like, yeah, I'm 2 for 3.
What a loser.
Well, my third one could still work out.
It's got like an hour.
Can you guys hear the sirens in the back?
Yes, I can.
Sounds like New York.
Oh, yeah.
In New York.
And no one can mute me, too, and get away from my singing.
But you like it better when I sing it, right, Kim?
Yes, absolutely.
He was 60-point bounce on NQ.
We back-test the orb here.
This is a good spot to try to short.
Yeah, this is a lower-range back-test if you're bearish.
This is not.
Is this the first time that Drew Beg Lino's leaving?
Did he leave before and come back?
They're saying because of Sawyer's post saying that he's been there for like 18 years or something, 16 years.
I guess.
I don't know.
I think he's been there for a long time, though.
A little team.
Oh, the e-maps looking interesting.
Very green.
Except for Tesla, Salesforce, and Apple.
Well, MOH down.
Melina Healthcare.
Real estate REITs are a little bit down.
Not much.
Utilities, not super strong, but a little better.
The solar stock's down in phase and first solar.
Getting some red.
But besides that, Palo Alto down a little bit.
A lot of green across the board.
Fear and greed index.
Wants to get down into fear.
It's at 46 right now.
It's actually frozen.
That's a lot lower than we've had in a while.
It is.
But although, like I said, it is frozen from Friday, so I don't know if it's what's happening now.
I would guess probably a couple Fed speakers talking at some point today, but not too much else.
We got most of the data out of the way that we should be seeing.
Daily is speaking tonight.
We do have Jerome Powell speaking tomorrow at 1.15 p.m. Eastern, so we'll keep that one on watch, but we'll have plenty of time to react.
Where's he speaking at?
I don't know.
It just says that he is speaking.
Jerome Powell.
I guess we got to figure it out.
Nope, that's not the right one.
That is.
Moderated discussion with Tiff Macklem, governor of the Bank of Canada, with Jerome Powell.
At the Washington Forum on the Canadian Economy.
I don't know if much is coming out of that one.
There we go.
We got Emperor Door coming back up.
For the QQQ call scalp this morning, the chart is now posted.
It should be at the top of spaces.
So, again, it was the 200 EMA on the five-minute time frame.
So, if you zoom in, you'll see the little purple line right there.
That is the 200 EMA that lined up just above the 440 psych level there on QQQ,
which that was the reason for the call entry earlier for that nice pump to the upside on those contracts.
Ooh, Neely.
Hello, hello.
Interesting.
NVIDIA back under that 900.
Into the chop we go.
Wolf, are you excited for the Bitcoin having this week?
Oh, yeah.
It's going to be on Saturday.
I'll be doing a space on Friday about it with a bunch of Bitcoin bulls.
We've got Gary Cardone coming on there.
We've got some other folks that will be in the mix.
Hashtags?
I don't think hashtags are going to be a part of that.
It's going to be with Stacks, which is the native coin inside of the main Bitcoin wallet.
I don't even know what you just said, but yes.
All right.
Long story short, when you download a Bitcoin wallet...
I don't even know.
The most classic Bitcoin wallet is called the X-Wallet or the X-Verse or whatever it is.
When you download it, it has two coins on it.
Bitcoin and Stacks.
So, I'm doing it with Stacks.
Stacks.
Nice 40-point rejection off the Warback test.
You know, on the way down, Apple has not performed as bad as Tesla has.
At least today.
It doesn't look good, but it doesn't look as bad.
There's a lot of back-and-forth geopolitical stuff and threats going on right now.
That's, I think, the whippiness in the market.
Because over the weekend was definitely not as bad as expected.
At least as the market...
I don't know if it was expected, but as the market was fearing.
So, we'll see.
Anyway, that's why I was saying at the start of the day, I was thinking this might be overall a bounce-back day and we end materially higher.
It still could happen, but the market is definitely still on edge a little bit.
I think we had it.
Frank, is this just a day destined to be in a box?
This is typical Monday.
Get in position and have your drift off.
It's whippy.
It's a scalp day.
Get in, get out.
Nothing wrong with that.
Nothing wrong with that.
Interesting.
I'm trying to look at the analytics, Wolf, and it's saying that email metrics are currently delayed to high send volume.
Yeah, I noticed that it wouldn't let me update.
Did it let you update the gating?
Yes, it did.
Okay.
It wasn't letting me update it because it said it was still sending.
Yeah, that I saw.
I ended up waiting and then did it.
Oh, okay, okay.
I see what you're saying.
This is the area it spent most of the night at right here in NQ.
Frank, how often do you trade?
Like, it's 7 p.m. on a Sunday.
Is Frank trading?
Last night, I did trade.
Yeah.
Was it just because we were on spaces or would you have been either way?
It was after we got off.
I bought the dip in the NQ.
How did that happen for you?
I didn't look.
But I didn't stay up late.
I blew them out.
I had a goal in mind of like 20 points and 30 points and I hit it.
So I failed.
I wanted to get some rest.
Hey, that's fair.
I mean, we have what?
How long is the stock market open throughout the week?
Four hours, eight hours and 30 minutes a day.
I was watching my A back.
You got 43 hours of the stock market a week.
You don't necessarily need more.
Exactly.
Some could argue you actually should be having less.
Well, last night, I was watching the Masters.
We had that great conversation and then I saw an opportunity.
I couldn't help myself.
Scotty Scheffler winning the Masters.
There you go.
Good times.
Shout out to Scotty Scheffler's caddie,
who has now made more than most golfers in professional golf.
Caddie gets 10%.
Wolf, will you be getting the caddie or Scotty onto your Wolf Sports spaces?
Oh, wow.
Yes.
Scotty Scheffler will be coming on next week as he starts his victory tour.
Starting it off with Wolf Spaces.
Book it.
As I speak to him for my extensive golf experiences.
I've seen it.
I've seen it, actually.
Listen, I know that part of golf is definitely hitting the ground, right,
and kicking up some dirt.
They usually do that when they hit the ball.
I just don't hit the ball always.
I just sometimes just hit the dirt.
You could tell when Gov is golfed, going right after him.
I carry around one of those things with the extra green dirt pebbles.
Yeah.
Yeah, but everyone does.
It's fair.
Yeah, but I stocked up on him.
The spy chart is now posted as well.
You'll see the five-minute squeeze to the downside.
That was the reason for my entry.
But then Kim worked it out of me when she asked what my bot was saying,
and the bot was already in a short position as well.
So you'll see where it alerted the short.
My algo went short.
The five-minute squeeze was saying downside.
It was – I think Emperordor kind of said the same thing,
that something with the – it was still making lower highs there versus the
cues, and it was relatively more weak.
So there was a lot of things showing that downside was coming there on spy.
So a lot of good things there for the short.
So hopefully people made some money there.
I was short.
I was just early.
I just wanted your bot to confirm it after I was sitting in that cage for a while.
I'm coming back in here on Tesla, and I nailed that first prediction right off the
open, coming back in here an hour later, and throwing in a second one.
Just pinned it to the top of the space, posted it on my timeline.
If anyone wants to see the chart, you can just scroll up there, click into that.
It's free to see.
And feeling really good on this one.
I'm long silver futures again on that dip.
I'm going to hold kind of a tight stop on it this time.
It's interesting.
Oh, it did have a little bit of a spike last week.
By the way, I appreciate all the speakers up here, and the people who have joined in
throughout.
I see Kevin down below, and we had a bunch of other people coming in and out.
You should make sure you're following each and every single one of the speakers.
I appreciate all of them for coming on and joining the spaces and hanging out with us
and sharing their traits, their knowledge, their information, all that great stuff.
So check them out.
Give them a follow.
Truth is, if you don't enjoy what they're doing and tweeting, you can end up unfollowing
them later.
But I find spaces to be a great way to find new people.
So when you're hanging out in these and someone says something smart, interesting, or whatever,
go in, tap their profile, give them a follow.
And I think that will improve your experience on this app.
But yeah, I appreciate everyone for joining in.
We've still got a good little bit going here.
Probably another 30 minutes of live trading and then another hour and a half of total market
time.
Yeah, look at the 10-year, guys.
The 10-year is just crushing IWM.
You know, there is a 20-year option later today, too, by the way.
Not today.
10-year, 2.7%, dollar strong, IWM down half a percent.
Vic's futures are all over the place, too.
You don't see it move up and down like it's been this morning.
Typically, do you, Frank?
Oh, you don't really watch that.
No, 17.
I don't really watch.
I have it on my screen.
But if it gets extreme, I watch it.
But I scan it.
Frank, look at Dixie.
That was one of the first things I said was I was worried about that 106, and it bounced,
right?
You know, it was like 105.9.
So, oh, new high of day.
You know, we didn't quite get that gap from Friday.
I think we're going to go get it at some point.
But it's Monday, so you don't...
I wouldn't be surprised to fill the gap and still end up closing slightly green on the
day or something.
Right.
I agree.
But, you know, like we were texting last night, like, you know, reach up.
Like, it wasn't going to be the same as it was last week, where they, you know, just rip.
And they had everybody scared this morning with the rip, and now complete reversal.
All right, we were about an hour into the U.S. trading day.
Silver's back green.
Red.
It's going back and forth.
It would be really cool if this was all just a head fake and we actually closed the day higher.
Oh, I'll say.
You know what?
We'll put in some upside predictions here.
See how that does?
Okay, so this is how silver moves.
So, I bought that dip, right?
Just one.
And all I did is bought one SIL, and it's up $200.
There you go.
How much did the...
Oh, you guys should look at it.
Oh, yeah, no, that is a nice little move there.
I'm just looking at SLV.
Yeah, I mean, it's like, it's a really fun one to trade as that silver's futures.
You just have to be careful, but that's with anything.
It kind of moves like NQ, I guess.
I guess.
Yeah, my portfolio is fighting.
My portfolio itself is fighting around the...
I'm currently down 0.00%.
Now down 0.01%.
I was just up a tiny bit.
Buy.
Up about 0.4%.
Cues.
Still up about 0.3%.
Some of these big MAG-7 names are coming down.
Russell's red, isn't it?
Yeah, down 0.3%.
Still, honestly, not...
Russell's red.
But Russell's made a big correction off of, you know, 210.
So, you know, I'm looking at Russell, like, as a possible purchase, but you can't buy it
when yields are this high.
It doesn't...
It needs some help.
Add some buy volume, just come in there, unusual.
Yeah.
I think we're in the box, guys, already.
Well, we're outside of the box, but...
Well, the lower box, I mean...
Yeah.
We're back in Fridays.
I've basically got a sitting between two boxes.
Just filling in between the two.
Yeah.
Yeah.
The Equal Weight Magnificent 7 ETF is up about 0.2% on the day.
It was up as much as 0.5%, so...
Eagles just extended Devontae Smith for three years.
Yeah.
75 million, 50-something guaranteed.
That's cool.
That's a good deal.
I can't believe he's been in the league long enough to get an extension.
Casual 25 million a year.
Casual.
Bro, he is such a stick.
I can't believe he's, like, succeeding in the NFL at the wide receiver position.
He's, like, literally a twig.
But good for him.
I do think that I am bigger than him.
God, how are the gains coming?
We're back on the grind.
I'm pushing to 190 right now.
There you go.
Israel says they have no choice but to respond to Iran attack.
They have.
Devontae Smith lifted at 6'1".
Yeah.
24 to 48 average.
They're...
Yeah.
Devontae...
Yeah.
Yeah, Shai.
Devontae Smith is what I was as, like, a freshman in college.
Israel Defense Minister to Pentagon.
No choice but to retaliate against Iran.
I mean, there was a choice, but, you know.
Well, yeah, I don't...
I don't think apart what he's saying, but I'm just reporting the news.
Whatever happened to make love, not war?
I still think nothing's going to end up coming out of all of this.
War makes more money.
And they'll just do something more symbolic, like kind of what Iran did.
Well, actually, Kim, in Hebrew, you actually read, instead of left to right, it's right
to left in the book.
So it's make war not love.
No, I'm just kidding.
Sorry.
And it's coming from a Jew.
Don't...
There's just funny Jew jokes.
I dove in this morning.
Looks like banks are acting well today.
Actually, Wolf, it would be war make.
We had those earnings this morning, Sharkey.
Actually.
Well, actually, the Gurgaven meme that he always posts.
Wow, it is bouncing oil.
Up 3%.
That was it.
Goldman, right?
This is a tough market, I'll tell you that.
Yeah, that equal weight mags ETF wants to go negative right now, actually.
I'm so confident, are you, that the inventory level is going to be a higher tax rate.
$84.
$95.
Damn.
Jeez, look at Cobble.
Oh, Lord.
This year, and in fact, because we monetize inventory on our last few years, we're going through
a year where we had very high depth in our inventory last year.
A.A.V.L.
Share his reason.
Couple that with more depth this fall, I think that.
There is off the highs now, pulling back a bit, uh, $5.
For the union.
To go out for Victor Lima.
...subscribe to this high depth strategy.
Well, inventory is a...
Well, you two had a good day yesterday.
A lot of them ended up with a lot of inventory, uh, when you think about the broader retail industry.
But when you think about your own business, would you remember...
Yeah, the video?
Uh, the video did fine, but a couple shorts did good, too.
And then I recorded something, too, with Jaguar.
So, I don't know.
I'm excited.
So, think about a traditional retail...
Their inventory cost is around $45.
Uh, the Costco gold short.
Um, not gold short, just gold video.
Short, no, gold short.
Yeah, that's what it was.
Okay.
Did good.
That took a lot to get out of.
I'm just going to show it up.
But, um...
...is wearing something that is new to her.
You know what's weird?
The e-commerce stocks are kind of holding up strong today.
Like, Copang, uh, Sea Limited, Etsy.
I know Fiverr's not really e-commerce, but they're up 7%.
Airbnb's up 2%.
Platform Play.
Uh, Shopify's, like, flat-ish.
So, that's some strength today.
Interesting to know.
They're slapping it down to $200, I guess.
Nice.
I want to hold it up, though.
Let's go fill that gap.
Yeah, I think they want to go for that gap, Sharky.
Yeah.
When's stock split for Millie?
That's the big question.
I was talking about that earlier, Evan.
I'm short, guys.
Here?
Yep.
I shorted it at 05.
Small.
Just a starter.
I think they're going to go for the gap.
You've got Meta, Microsoft, several other names trying to fill the gap, too.
Oh, my God.
Look at that.
They're pulling it.
Yeah.
Order filled.
Those spy puts from 175 are now at 315.
Just made a low, low.
I closed my position.
I'm done for the day, personally.
So, I'll just be hanging out with you guys.
But I'm not taking any more trades today.
I got a tight leash.
Yeah, damn.
This is ugly.
What's leading this?
Amazon's holding in okay.
Okay.
The yield's at 4.62% is a breakout.
So, I think that's part of this.
And then geopolitical.
Look at it on Amazon.
This is around where you want it to hold.
We're all catching a big bid right here.
On that news headline.
I'm in runners.
This is a shot.
We didn't fill the gap yet, though.
Frank.
Look at USO just ripping.
Yeah.
Yeah, oil.
That's what I was just saying.
Oil's ripping.
That news headline's getting around.
Gold is taking off as well.
Silver's ripping.
Look at VIX.
Frank was saying it.
You get your head ripped off real fast trying to short VIX.
Yeah.
From 19 to 16, that was decent.
But this, he was trying to fight that.
Amazon.
Come on.
You're actually doing well.
Oh, yeah.
Come on.
It's not just a way of life.
It's how he helps everyone stay safe.
He's what's the small stuff.
The poor.
Chop, chop.
Wow.
I shouldn't have said anything about Apple.
About Amazon.
It can automatically stop and wait for that alone anymore.
So you'll never feel the pressure.
Welcome to the next wave of water.
Next wave of water.
There's no real earnings after the close today, I don't think.
Well, I know there's nothing big, but.
I don't think there's anything outweary at all after the bell.
No, nothing.
Biggest is a company called FB Financial.
FBK.
Skillsoft.
That sounds like a meme stock from back in the day.
You do have some before the open tomorrow to keep your eye on, though.
Some more banks.
UNH, I think, is going to be a pretty big one to keep an eye on.
J&J.
Bank of America.
Morgan Stanley as well.
PNC Financial.
Bank of New York Mellon.
So, Regionals, the mega, the last of the big six U.S. banks, and then UNH and J&J.
Northern Trust, and then Ericsson, too.
Ericsson being a Swedish company, I'd imagine they're going to be reporting at like 2 a.m. or something.
Maybe even 1.
Yeah.
Well, they're probably reporting after the bell of their market, right?
No, I think it's before they're open.
Oh, before they're open, so yeah.
Okay, that would make sense, yeah.
So, that would be, yeah, like 1, 2 a.m.
My first cell phone was a Sony Ericsson.
Yeah.
I just got flat here.
I kind of feel like they want to test that gap and then grind higher and close green, but
I think we might get a little shock on the downside first.
But that being said, I'm flat.
It's too, it's pretty whippy.
That almost got away from me.
I had it.
Hey, if you want to stay long, and you want to stay in Eclipse, I like the way Amazon's holding up.
If we're going long.
I don't really want to be long anything right now.
I know.
I'm feeling that.
Media coming down hard now.
Never fall in love with any stock, that's for sure.
So, Brandon, thanks so much for being with us.
What did you see?
What's the reaction so far?
I may do that long-term DCA soon.
They have no emotion.
They'll torture you.
The first thing is that the market is responding to the various...
NVIDIA is about 15 bucks off the highs now.
Kim had a great short in the yes up there.
That was awesome.
I wish I would have shorted it again, because I kind of saw it, but I was...
I shorted like...
I don't want to manage both.
I shorted like 15 micros up there, and like, it just, you know, it came in so quickly.
I had a good trade, but I covered them too soon.
Me too.
But like, it's a Monday, and it's hard to...
Mondays are tricky, and if you can scalp your way around it, it's pretty good.
But, I mean, seriously, I'm making more on ones, you know, on the silver.
I'm actually out of silver now, by the way.
And it'll probably go higher, I'm guessing, but I got out, because I just...
I was very happy with my overnight trade and then scalping it this morning.
But it moves so fast, you can make such good money on that one.
And you can lose it too.
As long as the geopolitical tensions are in the air, I think it's a great one to trade.
You know, it rejected hard at that, you know, when it got close to 30, and then it rejected again off 28, 94, off of 29.
So, now it's trying to find its legs.
Well, Brandon, you touched on what I've been wondering about, which is where we should be looking for the ripple effects here.
What industries we should be keeping an eye on?
It sounds like oil, definitely, but also rare minerals and those long...
Oh, NQ, I did just look, NQ gave it all back.
I did not see that.
I mean, I shorted it at, like, 09, and then covered some well below, and then it ripped on me.
And I added, and now I just, I gave it up at, like, the figure.
I just, like, ugh.
So, we're testing the low again.
Let's see if we get a double bottom here.
Or a break.
Evan and Wolf.
I'm actually going to head out for the time being.
The spy drop there just went over my daily goals.
So, no need for me to continue to trade, but I appreciate you guys having me on.
You as well.
You called it out as well that you were short.
So, all worked out, baby.
Great job, as always.
I appreciate you guys having me.
We know you'll...
Yes, sir.
We know you'll be back on Spaces at some point later tonight.
I'll still be on Spaces later with the normal guys, just talking and everything.
But I'll most likely be at the park or something, hanging out with the kids, staying away from the charts.
That way, I don't get the urge to put more money on the table that I don't need to be doing.
Casey, I love that.
That's such a great lesson for everybody, is just knowing when to stop.
So, I love that you're saying that.
Yes.
Say it again, Casey.
You made your goal.
You're walking away.
Yeah.
I mean, the thing is, I mean, we're here to make money.
And the money that I make and everything, it's being provided for my lifestyle, for my family, stuff like that.
So, I mean, don't take it for granted when you make $1,000 in a day.
Believe it or not, I know people want to make millions of dollars.
But $1,000 a day, it can really, really add up and go a long way.
Just stick to your strategy and have conviction in your trades and just get after it.
And don't give that money back to the market once you've hit that goal.
Don't get greedy.
Just be consistent.
And it adds up, I promise you guys.
Well, $1,000 a day over 280 trading days is $280,000.
Yeah, a quarter of a million dollar salary.
Yep.
Exactly.
And that's the goal right now.
I mean, easy six figures.
It's nothing crazy, but everything grows with time.
So, it's a marathon, not a sprint.
So, love you guys.
And I'll see you for the Thursday session.
Thanks for having me.
Thanks, Casey.
Take care.
Thanks, Casey.
They seem to have held there so far.
Hold.
Come on.
Let's see what happens in this next pop.
We're still kind of extended from like five-minute EMAs.
Okay.
It seems like I've said this a lot lately, but I'd rather, when we're in this area that
we're currently in, I'd rather be short from higher or long from lower.
This is not an area I want to touch right now.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
Okay.
is it what's what's what's it doing up four about two percent two percent okay yeah i just
did a random yes i was i was like uh is my stuff wrong no i mean obviously it's been fading out of
an amazing run there for you know up into the march madness area but um kind of interesting
here at this level if it's gonna hold here and and uh continue the uptrend
i won my march madness pool
i got i got bent over did you pick uconn i did pick uconn i feel like i might have picked uconn in
mine too
you got the final four right i got three uh i got three of the final four right get the final game
right hey when do uh nba playoffs start soon this week these seasons over i think it's the
playoff play-in tournament now wolf would know tournament what was the question when the nba
playoffs start august uh sorry april 20th august 12th whoa no they start they start okay so the game
start you have the play-in before then okay perfect and i knew it had to be getting close i was looking
at the records the other day when we had that space start any day now
well this is not good spies lost that 5 12 50
better get its butt back over oh five minute hanging man on qqq and spy here
i still haven't taken a single day trade all day
no me either short me either just waiting for the setup
we did mention that lower back test for the short but i just kinda
i was just yeah it was it was it was so quick i missed it yeah
i think we might see it again
i think it was right
in a minute
I'll just fill the gap and get it over with so we have something to work with.
Making new lows here.
Okay, this is, we're getting real close here.
Alright.
Damn, another down candle, Jesus.
I remember back when my portfolio was close to even, just an hour ago or so.
Way back in the day, like, you know, 45 minutes ago.
Yeah, I think they're going for this gap.
They're almost there, but like, it might not stop there.
You know, NQ tends to go a little further, right?
Yeah, I'm watching the gap more on QQQ and SPX.
You know, I'm looking at, you know, the 50 level.
Yeah.
I don't know.
Meta and Microsoft are both getting pretty close to the gap fill on those individual
charts.
Okay.
I'm going to have to try to save the market here.
Here's, uh, QQQ is going green to red right up this level if it continues.
NVIDIA only up five now.
All right, I'm on.
Oh, Sharky did the deed.
Sharky's in.
Damn, Salesforce is down 6% right now.
Geez.
What's going on with it?
That's a big move.
Hey, uh, we're trying to acquire a company or something.
I guess the market isn't limited.
All right, I'm on.
Oh, Sharky did the deed.
Sharky did the deed.
Sharky did the deed.
Sharky did the deed.
Sharky's in.
Damn, Salesforce is down 6% right now.
Geez.
What's going on with it?
Hey, uh, we're trying to acquire a company or something.
I guess the market isn't limited.
All right.
This is, uh, you know, this is a combination of a lot of different things.
This is the Dixie, the Beals, um, Israel, Iran.
Throwing in a PLTR, 30-minute target level.
Pin that chart to the top of the space.
I don't do a lot of PLTR ones, but I usually have pretty good luck with them.
Yeah, I'm the opposite.
I'm the opposite.
I don't do a lot of them, and it was pretty bad with them, so I haven't tried to go in.
I always, because the move's always like, uh, it has to move like 10 cents or like 7 cents
or something, and I'm like, oh, it's gonna do that.
It has to.
And it just doesn't.
I don't understand whether or not this is just an indictment.
I'm pretty bad with that.
This is a $25 range here for ESM.
Historically.
Evan, did you see this?
What'd you say?
Iran seized an Israeli ship.
Yeah, that happened on Saturday.
Why are people tweeting this stuff out now?
Like, come on.
Yeah.
I thought it was a Portuguese ship that they.
It was owned by an Israeli billionaire.
How that ship was not being protected, I don't know.
But.
I'm not one of these characters that.
I would think that they would be protecting them.
But.
I did take a little flyer with you.
Sharky.
I bought like.
Eight.
I'm seeing the wick up.
I think I'm gonna scale some.
Yeah.
This candle on gold.
Like a one hour candle.
Here.
Order filled.
We filled the gap.
In the queues anyway.
Yeah.
In queue basically, yeah.
There we go.
I think we got Will up here now too, right?
Looks like it.
And VDL.
Getting back up there.
Back up at 1.8 billion AUM.
How's it going?
Well.
Doing well.
How are you guys doing?
Good.
Busy morning.
I know.
Yeah.
Yeah.
What have you been watching this morning?
I think specifically, obviously just looking at why the market originally was up, you know, given all the news of the weekend.
But it seems like, again, you know, the earnings, the earnings came out stronger than expected, particularly on the retail side.
So fundamentals are still good.
But, you know, clearly the macro is probably the bigger issue and, you know, how that plays into today and then this week more broadly.
All right.
Meta's basically filling its gap here.
Will, how do you read into all this geopolitical stuff that's happening?
Yeah.
I mean, it's, it's, I guess you've got to take it one day at a time and we'll, we'll see kind of how it escalates if it does.
But the market's been very resilient, you know, so far.
You know, you think about what happened in, with Russia and Ukraine and obviously they're still rumbling on, but the, the market is, has been really resilient in the face of a lot of, a lot of problems or potential problems.
And the fact that it was up a little bit this morning also was kind of interesting to me, you know, given what happened over the weekend.
So we'll see, you know, it's, it's a kind of a, always a push and pull between, is there going to be, is it going to be some restraint, you know, shown in the Middle East?
Like, things going to, things going to resist escalating here.
And, you know, as we know, just from the, the earnings season that we're now in, so far it's been good.
It's going to get back over 75 in a second.
I don't know if, Shark, are you able to hear Will?
Sorry about that.
That's all right.
Very good.
Sometimes there's just like, people just straight up can't hear other people.
And then, there were a few other things I wanted to get your thoughts on real quick, Will.
The dollar, the Dixie, if you've been watching that today.
I haven't seen it today, but I know gold obviously had a drop on Friday.
So, typically when that happens, the dollar would spike.
And, you know, I'm guessing that that's probably what we're seeing this morning.
Frank, you were talking a little bit about the dollar earlier, right?
Yeah, dollar at 106.202.
So, macro-wise, that's a problem for the market.
And then we have yield, 10-year yield at 4.636, up 2.5%.
That's a problem for the market.
And then the, you know, the Middle East is becoming more of a pull of a problem.
Because it's a back and forth now, right?
So, I think the market wants to build in a premium in oil and probably in other things.
You know, that's a powder keg.
You know, people, if you look at the history of Israel, they are resilient people and they don't back down ever.
And after October, what happened in October, they're different than the United States.
You know, we usually, you know, it's an eye for an eye.
With them, they play for keeps and they're not going to let this go too easily.
Because they're in it and they'd rather, like, send the message that they can be ruthless because they can.
Because they have to.
Because they're, they're the, there's only, it's a tiny little country.
And, you know, I think that we have to build some risk into it because they're the 51st state, whether you like it or not.
So, we're in it with them.
And anyone that doesn't think that is naive.
So, I think that that's the headwind.
You know what I mean?
And Biden would love for him to, like, back off.
But, like, they're an independent country.
They're going to do what they have to do.
This is probably a little different when the rockets are shot at you and not at one of your friends, right?
Exactly.
Yeah, it's a pretty heated situation.
And I know, Will, you kind of obviously, you know, looking at it from the market perspective, but have you, you've been investing for a long time.
Have you seen situations similar to this in past years and ways that the market typically reacted to it or ways that, you know, you've seen people best approach the market during them?
Yeah, so there have been, obviously, you know, unfortunately, a number of conflicts, you know, around the world.
It almost seems like, you know, the world keeps becoming a more dangerous place.
Even though that, you know, we're kind of used to, you know, peaceful situation here.
But, you know, you've had various different Middle East conflicts over the last 20 years, from Iraq, Afghanistan.
And then you've had, you know, other situations arise that cause geopolitical, you know, geopolitical instability.
And I think that's always been a buying opportunity, really, if you look over the long term, that you have to sort of expect that, you know, these crises will be contained at some point.
But there's an opportunity to buy, you know, whether it was specifically, you know, in Russia, Ukraine, or any of these other situations going back the last 20 years.
It's just, it's always hard, you know, from an investment perspective, to have that perspective, you know, when the going gets tough, or when it starts to become really volatile, and you don't know, you know, how it can escalate.
But I think, again, what I saw, particularly maybe would help you guys on Friday, I know it wasn't necessarily anything to do with, obviously, what was going to happen over the weekend with the Iranian attack, you know, on Israel.
But I think what you're seeing is people looking to leg into stocks like Nvidia, you know, etc.
I mean, Nvidia, from my perspective, what I can see on my platform, you know, seems to me like when there's a big down day, you know, that's when people are buying and may sound counterintuitive to some of you, but we see almost more activity on down day than an up day.
So it tells me that, that people are still bullish on these key stocks, and they want to get in, you know, when there's an opportunity to do that, you know, when the market's down.
So what about gold here? Because that's where I saw a lot of people turn to that gold spike.
And obviously, you guys over at Granite Shares have BAR, the Gold Trust, now over a billion in assets.
They're up 14% almost this year, and gold is, you know, from 2020, really, until about a month ago, was flat.
I mean, it just didn't do much.
But now it seems to be breaking out and starting to move.
Do you see that as something that is buoyed by everything that's happening right now?
Yeah, definitely.
You know, there's a lot of things going on in the gold trade, you know, from central banks buying gold kind of at unprecedented levels in a way that is a continuation of a trend that's been going on now for 10 years plus.
But I think one of the things, this is just my opinion, is that, you know, up until really very recently, the world was moving to a consensus around, you have the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency, and then second, you have the Chinese yuan.
And it was sort of this, you know, somewhat inevitable narrative that you hear about, you know, the Chinese economy overtaking the U.S. economy, and therefore, by default, you'd have the Chinese yuan at some point replace the dollar as the world's reserve currency.
I think that is starting to change or has maybe changed a little bit, and investors are no longer looking at that as being a sure thing and indeed thinking that, okay, the Chinese yuan may actually not be the world's second reserve currency, and actually, it could be something like gold.
And so I think central banks accumulating gold is a sort of quasi-endorsement of that at some level.
And then the other thing is just to, you know, diversify, you know, foreign exchange reserves, because typically the countries that are buying the most gold are big exporting countries, so accumulating lots of foreign exchange reserves, you know, dollars, other currencies.
But weirdly enough, despite the fact that gold has had this incredible run, we haven't seen much activity on the kind of inflow side in that sort of environment.
And certainly, like we've seen before, you know, when gold went to then it was an all-time high, you know, in COVID in 2020, we saw huge amounts of buying, huge amounts of interest in gold at that time.
And I think what's different this time around is there hasn't been that fear trade or that fear premium injected into the gold market.
So the gold price rising has been largely a function of, you know, good fundamentals coupled with a weaker dollar and obviously inflation expectations, interest rate expectations coming down.
So I think that, you know, if we start to see some fear of, you know, this conflict in the Middle East starting to spill over, that brings that fear premium.
And that's what gets investors motivated to buy gold because right now I think the opportunity cost has been more of a, hey, if I'm holding gold and I'm missing out on, you know, gains in the stock market, I'm missing out on, you know, equities and, you know, all things being equal, equity risk premium should be higher than the risk premium for gold.
So the fact that, you know, gold was actually outperforming the S&P this year, you know, I think that that was a function that sort of got people to think and, you know, really what gets the investors motivated on the gold front is when there starts to be a fear premium at play and people start to use gold as a defensive asset.
And so maybe we start to see some of that.
Apple just got a big pop, by the way.
Appreciate that, Will.
Let's get some other thoughts from the panel, too.
And if anyone has questions for Will, feel free to throw them in.
I saw Jax, you jumped up on stage.
Jax, you got some thoughts here on what's happening in the markets with the geopolitical side of things, as well as we're talking a little bit of gold, a little bit of tech.
Yeah, so geopolitically, I'm kind of in a wait and see mode.
I have a decent amount of capital on the sidelines.
I think that's kind of what most people are waiting for is they're trying to see if this conflict is going to escalate a little bit more and then continue to buy any dips that happen.
And I suspect that things are going to even out.
I suspect there will be a ceasefire in Gaza that will be prolonged and that the Iran situation will simmer down quite a bit.
So I'm going to continue to invest.
I'll continue to watch.
But I don't see this escalating too much farther, in my opinion.
Got it.
And then we are definitely going to be talking some ETFs on here, too.
Evan, if you want to update that title.
So, Jax, I know you mentioned to me you've definitely been around that ETF field.
We've had several chats now with Will, who's a multi-billion dollar fund manager.
Curious on just your thoughts here in general on using ETFs in a time like this in the market.
So, full disclosure for everyone on the panel, I used to work at BlackRock and no longer work there anymore.
But ETFs always are like they're very highly tax advantaged.
It's better to kind of buy the bundle of assets than buying the individual assets themselves.
For example, like if we want to buy gold, usually people don't want to go out and buy their own gold bars and throw it in their safe.
So it's a lot better to go out and buy the ETFs.
You don't have to worry about the storage of that gold.
I think ETFs are always a very good thing to invest in.
In terms of which ETFs, I don't have a strong recommendation on which to go into.
But I always think that ETFs are very good.
I'm personally looking at a lot of the crypto ETFs and the action that may be coming in that space.
But I'm not sure if you guys really touched the crypto markets here.
I think it's more tried by, if I'm not mistaken.
Yeah, I think we talked a little bit about both of them.
I actually am curious, Will, what are your thoughts on these new crypto ETFs that are now launching?
There's obviously the Bitcoin backed ones.
There's talks of Ethereum ones coming and how that affects the ETF landscape.
I think what ETFs are really good at is where you provide market access.
So where you're accessing a particular market that you can't currently trade in your stock portfolio.
So Bitcoin is a good example of that or cryptocurrencies are a good example of that where you're accessing the asset class of Bitcoin, if you will, through a listed security.
And that's important because it kind of unlocks not just the retail audience, but it unlocks the advisor based who charge fees on the basis of managing a portfolio.
So for them, if a client goes and buys Bitcoin and they go and buy it on Coinbase, for example, the advisor doesn't get paid for that because it's not in the book.
It's not in the managed assets.
So that really helps in terms of institutionalizing an asset class and getting more.
And that's, you know, to Jack's point, that's exactly what happened with gold, whereby, you know, it's not that necessarily people couldn't buy gold.
People have been buying gold for thousands of years, but they could only buy gold in terms of coins or physical bars.
And there's difficulties with that.
And it's not necessarily the availability.
It's that it's a bit of a kind of a hassle and you're typically paying premiums to buy and then you're selling back at discounts.
So it's not really an efficient way to track the gold price.
And so when gold ETFs came along, clearly opened up or unlocked that asset class so that people could own gold in a portfolio.
And that's been super successful.
So with cryptos, I think that it's, you know, if you look at the success of the Bitcoin ETFs, it's just it's undeniable that that has been a massive success.
Actually, way, way more successful than I would have predicted, to be honest with you, before the spot Bitcoin ETFs launched.
And I'm surprised not just at the amount of the absolute amount of dollars that have gone in, but also the kind of the breadth of the asset or the AUM distribution through the issuers.
So it wasn't just that everybody just bought the BlackRock one, although that is the number one or the leading product by market share.
But people went and bought ETFs from other issuers as well.
And so that was kind of interesting to me that there was demand not just for the ETF itself, but for the ETFs from different issuers, which I think is sort of shows the strength here in terms of that demand for Bitcoin.
So when you have a hit like that, it's like a hit record, you know, in the music business that whoever's providing that hit record will want to follow it up with another one and another one.
And so there's an easy pathway leaving aside the regulatory hurdles in terms of offering now a spot ETF on Ethereum or other particular cryptos that people might be interested.
So definitely I'd expect more. And I think from our perspective, what's been interesting to us is that what it really means, I think, also is a broadening out of interest in the asset class itself.
So not just Bitcoin spot, but as you guys know, we have the 2x leveraged Coinbase.
So we have Connell, which is a ticker C-O-N-L. And, you know, that has had a huge amount of interest, you know, as well as obviously the spot Bitcoin ETF.
So I think people are looking to play the asset class, play the industry with not just the actual cryptos or the tokens themselves, but by taking a view on which stocks are going to become the winners.
And again, no different to what we saw in gold, where people will happily trade gold and gold mining companies and the gold mining industry clearly has matured over the last hundred plus years where you have all sorts of different companies from miners to streamers to all sorts of different people participating in the value chain.
And I think the same you're starting to see with crypto as well.
So you've got the big custodians or the multi-custodian broker type players to miners, and then you'll have other companies as well that will be able to generate value and generate revenue from crypto, providing obviously that the interest continues.
So to me, it's an interesting space. We are tackling it from the stock perspective.
But I think it just shows you that the interest is there and that industry is going to be going to be broader than it is today.
It's interesting to look at the assets of CONO, your guys' 2X long Coinbase ETF.
Just how much like it really kind of looks like when a lot of these ETFs came up, just the interest in the kind of ETFs around crypto in any way possible picked up as well.
Because Coinbase was even running heading into the end of last year and a good little bit of last year.
But the AUM really only started to pick up for a CONL, the 2X Coinbase ETF, after the Bitcoin ETFs came out, which I think is a little interesting.
I'm watching. Sorry. Go ahead, Will.
Yeah, no, sorry. I was just going to say that it's a really interesting one.
My own take of it was that, yes, last year, sorry, was one of these like really weird years that, you know, crypto was completely dead, you know, off the reservation in terms of interest in the first six months of the year, pretty much.
And the interest was all about AI. And about, you know, somewhere between the last six months or definitely last four months of the year, you know, crypto came back, Bitcoin rallied, you know, massively.
And if you look to the performance of Coinbase, it just took off, you know, like a rocket and actually CONL ended up being our best performing ETF of last year.
And so most people would have automatically said, you know, NVDL, the 2X NVIDIA ETF.
And the performance obviously was amazing, but Coinbase actually eclipsed it just at the last dying, you know, embers of the end of last year because the crypto rally was so strong.
And then I think once you start to get some momentum like that, then, you know, the asset flows typically come when people say, hey, this is something that is not going to slow down, at least for some time.
And therefore, you know, this year, beginning of this year, we started to see a lot of inflows coming in.
I was going to, I was going to jump in and add that I'm really watching that, like, CONL that you guys have for the Bitcoin halving that's coming up, obviously, this weekend, as well as Coinbase has earnings in about three weeks on May 7th.
Yeah, there are definitely a few pieces to go over.
Shai, you got some thoughts for the convo here?
Yeah, well, let's just say I'm part of the camp where I do think this Iran-Israel-Mittal East conflict is actually going to be prolonged longer than most people think, where it's not going to be weeks.
It's actually going to be months and potentially a couple quarters.
Do you think in the near term, this upcoming earnings, like the next week or two where the big tech big dogs are coming in, they're going to out, if they do outperform like previous quarters,
do you think that would be a good enough catalyst to kind of distract everyone from their geopolitical tension?
Or do you think that really the VIX at 18 and continuing around that range is going to be a major headwind on kind of liquidity in the market until the noise clears out?
Probably, probably, probably more of the latter.
And again, there will be certain stocks that I think will be able to get cut through the noise, so to speak.
But I think for the most part, it's just going to be tough for stocks to rally in a meaningful way if there's conflict, not just kind of continuing, but continued uncertainty.
And that uncertainty is manifesting itself in a higher VIX and then higher interest rates.
So that's going to be the headwind, at least before the conflict started.
You saw that on Friday where yields went up and stocks went down fairly significantly.
So, yes, it's going to be a bit of a tough earning season, I think.
And despite good fundamentals, I think some stocks will do well.
And I think to the points mentioned earlier, it's time to maybe think about buying into certain stocks if they sell off in this particular earning season.
But, yeah, I mean, if things continue, that's going to be tough.
And, again, that environment manifests itself in a higher VIX and higher rates.
Great points.
I'm also surprised about the appetite of investors right now in the market with all this tension and noise out there.
We're honestly, like, we're not that much further off in the all-time highs.
Do you – why do you think that is?
Do you think it's because a lot of people are aware of the crutch of 2024 where there's an election year and there's a certain floor on how much will go lower due to that kind of political – not manipulation, but, like, noise?
And – or do you think it's because of the trillions of dollars on the sidelines at the end of the year knowing that the dips have been bought and probably will be with that amount of dollars on the sideline?
So, it can only go as low as – I don't know, like, barely a correction, not bear market type thing.
Or is there, like, a third option?
I didn't even call out that – why the appetite is so strong right now in the market when it is kind of fearful to be involved right now, but you're not seeing in the price action.
Yeah, I mean, I think, Shay, that the Israel-Gaza situation, you know, up until that happened, you know, clearly the narrative was very, very positive.
But, again, it's horrible to say, perhaps, but the Ukraine-Russia situation had largely disappeared from the news pages and disappeared from investors' thinking.
And so, the geopolitical premiums, you know, all of the panic that we saw at the beginning of that conflict had come out of the market and things had sort of returned to normal.
So, you know, after we had this sort of situation with Israel in Gaza, up until, I think, very recently, again, that had started to ebb out of the market in terms of premium, risk premium.
And, you know, people really just focused on what was still a really positive story, meaning that the U.S. economic growth was good.
As you know, an election coming up, you know, it's not supposed to be political, but, you know, one can't help but thinking it will be political.
And that, you know, the Fed will drop interest rates, you know, one or two times, you know, maybe more this year.
And that sort of a good story, a good investment story only gets better because rates come down, inflation's coming down, you know, earnings across the board are good.
And like you said, that there's a lot of cash on the sidelines that's sitting in 5% plus money market funds that if rates go from 5% to 3% and those money market investors, you know, give up their 2% whatever yield, then a lot of those people are going to come out of money market funds and go into equities.
And, you know, I'd say that really up until, and again, I don't want to be too negative about it because we clearly have to see what the response is, you know, from Israel and, you know, just have to have to, you know, watch what happens in this situation.
But leaving aside that for a second, the narrative has been overwhelmingly positive and people have come in and bought dips, you know, when they've happened because, you know, all things being equal, this has been a strong year and, you know, continues, I think, to be strong, albeit, you know, the geopolitical, you know, situation that we now have in the Middle East.
Beautiful. I love that answer. Appreciate that.
Yeah. One last question. I put, I mean, obviously, the solar and EV industry is just getting massacred due to the high interest rate environment. Consumer spend is diminishing quarter after quarter. And it's just like, looks like there's no bottom in sight.
Totally okay if you don't really have a pulse on this, but like, which industry between solar and EV do you think will recover first in this kind of, honestly, they're in a depression, both industries.
Like, which one do you think recovers first? And if you have an answer, why do you think that is?
So I don't, I don't have a strong view. So this is just a pure guess. But if you had to push me, I would say the EV industry would recover first.
And the only reason, my only logic behind that is I think it's less, less manipulated, if that's the right word, by, you know, Chinese industrial policy.
And so I think that in the solar market, you know, it's just very difficult to, you know, compete, you know, in a world where you have, you know, huge amounts of solar panels and solar technology being exported from China, which is vastly subsidized by the Chinese government at, you know, prices which you just can't compete with, you know, here in the US or in Europe.
So that that's going to take some time, you know, absent the US government and or Europe doing something about tariffs and maybe trying to kind of intervene in that way.
But it's going to take some time to work its way out of the system.
I don't think necessarily that with EVs, there's a sort of the story is as bearish as people think in terms of demand.
I think that the demand is certainly not there in China, but that's obvious because the Chinese economy is going through a really difficult time at the moment.
But the numbers here, I don't think are that bad or something that they're not as bearish, I think, as sometimes reported.
I think that the EV market, the EV trend is here to stay.
And with advances in batteries that are coming down the road pretty quickly, that that product will continue to be refined and will continue to be better.
So I don't believe that the thesis has gone away for EV.
I think that, you know, certainly in the case of the Chinese market, that the economy is going through a bad time at the moment.
And we don't know when that will recover.
But I think it's probably a better place to be than in solar at the moment.
Jax, what else is on your mind when it comes to this market and you're kind of looking around and hearing about some of the things that we're discussing here?
For me, most of my attention is personally on the crypto markets.
I spend a lot of time in that space.
I'm curious as to whether if tensions continue with the Iran-Middle East conflict, if crypto will be seen as a quality investment, as like as a hedge.
But usually, historically, what I've seen, if you go back to like something like the crash of 2020 is when there was large amounts of instability, crypto markets actually crashed and people took a huge flight into safety of dollars.
So thinking largely about what will be that like flight to safety if this conflict continues, I'm still thinking through that.
I actually like to open it up to the panel if people think that like gold is the very good investment if dollars, if this conflict were to continue.
Yeah, a bit of a flight to safety, perhaps.
And Will, maybe you can comment on that.
Plus, you also do have the Coinbase double leverage ETF.
So I wonder if, you know, when if crypto becomes that area of safety, if that's the one that starts to run.
Because I hear a lot of people that tell me, hey, I don't really trade too much crypto.
I just buy Coinbase stock because that's like betting on the house.
That's where they see it.
Yeah, I mean, I think it's that that that has to be at the end of the day.
And that's probably the one part of the crypto thesis that hasn't really played out.
And, you know, so far, you know, crypto is traded very much as a risk on asset, whereas something like gold trades very much as a defensive asset or risk off asset.
So, again, it's it will have to see kind of how all of this shakes out.
But you saw the Bitcoin price drop, you know, fairly significantly yesterday on the back of the Iranian kind of attack news.
And I think that's largely a risk off play as much as anything else.
So I think as the market matures, you have a better chance of crypto being able to establish that narrative of being a flight to safety or risk off.
But I think right now, you know, certainly the data shows us that it's very much a risk on play and that whenever there's whenever there's a defensive moment or there's a dislocation in the market that people have run for dollars, you know, clearly number one or U.S.
Treasury is number one and then gold, probably number two.
And crypto hasn't played that role.
But I think, again, it's it's still I mean, the asset class is still so, so new in the grand scheme of things.
And, you know, it's maturing all the time.
So I think it's it's it's maybe we shouldn't write it off yet, but certainly want to keep keep watching as the market matures.
Yeah, that's something I keep an eye on, too.
Well, what's on your mind with this market we're seeing today?
I think it's a little bit of fear, but I don't think it's going to last as everybody knows historically.
You know, war as as much as war, nobody likes it.
It's obviously a very bad thing.
It has tended to have more bullish effects on the market once once things start to play out.
So I don't think sell offs are necessarily going to be long lived.
But again, I'd also prefer no war.
So that's just my take.
I know right now, technically, we gapped up.
But I think that's because there was like severe fear leading into the weekend.
And then things seem to have cooled down when there was a report of no retaliation.
I think that let people, you know, feel a little bit better, but I still think there's still a lot of fear going into it of what might still come.
So I do think we may see a little bit more fear sell off.
And then overall, I think we'll the market as a market standpoint, I think it will mark will bounce back stronger.
What do you think about some of the granted shares ETFs?
I think you might have been on space with us beforehand once with Will, but curious to get any thoughts here on these as trading tools in this market.
My favorite is actually.
What was it?
The one with the D.
D-Rubber.
Yeah.
D-Rub.
D-Rubber's the GOATS of ETFs for most.
I think that one looks extremely appealing.
I'm waiting a few more days before I start nibbling some up.
I was kind of annoyed at myself last week because I actually wanted to play the NVIDIA 2X Bowl on, I think, either Thursday or Friday.
And I just didn't.
And then I was like, damn it, because it bounced back nice over the next day.
So I missed that one, but I will definitely be keeping an eye on those as even short-term trading plays.
Yeah, that D-Rubber one, I haven't looked at it in a second here, but I know that we were chatting a lot about DRUP for the audiences, the ticker there.
It's been consistently outperforming the markets this year.
I believe it's still up above QQQ here right now.
Will, one of the ones that...
Question for Will on that one.
So do you ever change up what is included in that ETF?
Do you guys reassess and maybe add another ticker in or remove one if they're a little bit less disruptive or something else is entering the disruptors?
You know, like, if you think something else will be performing better type of thing, do you guys adjust it at all?
No, absolutely.
So we do a quarterly rebalance, which means that just per the rules of the strategy, that all the stocks get scored on a quarterly basis.
So if there's a company that was in one quarter and then doesn't make it, or in other words, the score is not high enough to be in the next quarter, then it gets kicked out and will be replaced by another stock.
So, you know, our goal, or at least the strategy is designed just to take the top 50 stocks.
And so if you're in the top 50, I mean, most of the stocks are fairly consistent, so you don't get a lot of turnover.
But clearly, if a stock was to drop, then it would be ejected one quarter and then replaced with another one.
Awesome.
So, Will, can you walk me through your bull thesis on Microsoft here to make it such a large part of the fund?
Yeah, I think with the fund, remember that it's not my bull thesis per se, but it's always in the context of the fund's bull thesis, if that's the right way to say it.
So the fund has an investment objective and a specific investment strategy, and that's it tracks the NASDAQ Select Disruptors Index.
And that index is designed to provide exposure to the top 50 most disruptive companies in the U.S. market.
And it scores those companies on a number of different factors, on six factors, one of which is to do with the value of a company's patent portfolio.
And, you know, there's sort of the mode that that provides, plus you have other scoring factors around profitability and around revenue and margin, etc.
So, in particular, Microsoft is rated the highest in the market, and therefore it's given the most weight at the moment.
So, it's the, you know, the most disruptive company, if you will, in the eyes of the index strategy.
So, that's the current situation, and the bull thesis on Microsoft is not so much a, it's not so much like an abstract thesis around Microsoft.
It's more about how does Microsoft score vis-a-vis the strategy.
And, you know, that score is the best, and therefore that's the highest weight in the portfolio.
And, again, that could change if the score changes, you know, from quarter to quarter or from year to year.
Got it.
Yeah, I like the clarification that it's more about the fund-specific strategy versus your strategy, because that is going to be different.
Do you have any plans?
Obviously, you're launching a lot of these double-leveraged funds.
Do you have plans to launch more things along the lines of drop, where it's a little bit different than just taking a single stock, and it's more about formulating that strategy?
Yeah, no, absolutely.
I mean, it's funny, because all we did was ETFs like that up until we launched the first, you know, leveraged single stock ETFs about a year and a half ago.
So clearly with leveraged single stocks, once you start a new category, then there's a sort of an emphasis to try and build a platform and like a decent offering for people.
So it's not just like a one-off stock.
So that's why we've been focusing a lot in that particular area and building out, you know, some of the largest, most popular stocks that people like.
But we do have, you know, clearly other ETFs in our suite that are not leveraged, that are not single stocks, that are more like, dare I say, traditional.
And, you know, we'll continue to design ETFs that we think will provide value in the market from like a broad stock perspective or bond perspective.
So absolutely, as we develop the business, we develop the business in multiple ways.
It's just right now we've been focused on the single stock area because it takes a while to kind of build out that offering.
So you have a decent amount of stocks where people think of leveraged single stocks, they think of granite shares.
And so say, oh, you know, granite shares must have something, you know, so we come and look at the offering that we have.
And we have the most comprehensive, you know, offering of those out there.
But it's not going to be all that we do.
It's just think of it as like when you start a new category, you want to build out that category as much as you can before being able to then, you know, move on to something else, so to speak.
That's awesome.
Kim, do you have any thoughts on the convo here?
I just traded the last, it was either last week or the week before I, you know, the options on coin, you know, it's been really back and forth.
And I'm like, I'm not going to buy the options this time.
I'm going to try to trade the con out, right?
That's the ticker, correct?
And I did that.
And I did, and it was like a day, it was up like 15 points or something.
I think it's when it went up to like 265 or 270 or something like that.
So I was really happy.
I just traded in and out of it.
I swung it for a day or two.
And so, yeah, I really liked it.
And then I traded the, is it NVDL?
Yeah, NVDL.
Yeah, the two X NVDL.
NVDL.
So, again, I just, you know, getting used to it, position sizing, you know, so just was, did small amounts, like a few thousand dollars.
And just to kind of see how it trades and how, what's the relationship to the actual stock, you know, dollar wise.
So that's what I did.
And I really did like the product.
And I'm like, okay, this is a way if I want to get long.
And I know you have the shorts as well.
But if I want to get long or, you know, I've had for quite a while some options on NVIDIA that I was just way up and didn't want to necessarily take the profits because they were long dated.
And so then I was like, well, that's a good way to protect because I don't want to be buying puts for myself on NVIDIA.
It just costs you a lot.
And if you're wrong, it's the theta decay, right?
So I was like, well, that would be a great way to kind of hedge my long options positions on NVIDIA would be using the short.
So I'm just getting used to the sizing is kind of what I'm doing.
But, yeah, I like that.
Right.
Sounds good.
Very nice, Kim.
Evan, what else is on your mind here?
Yeah.
No, I appreciate this.
It's actually a beautiful day outside right now in New York.
So definitely trying to take that in.
We are right basically back at earnings season here.
We're actually in it.
And I think these kind of leveraging stock ETFs are actually very interesting during this earnings season because unlike options, they do trade in after hours and pre-market.
So, you know, I never really like to hold through the earnings reports.
I think that's not a great strategy.
But, you know, playing the earnings in after hours, you know, maybe when you see a move that's a little bit too much or something like that.
And the kind of couple hours after you get the earnings, the call being done, it's actually a pretty interesting use case for these ETFs.
And, Will, I would love to get your thoughts on those and kind of the fact that they are open and trading in after hours might be beneficial during these earnings seasons.
And if you see any volume or activity around that time.
Yeah, thanks, Evan.
Yeah, we do.
And short answer is, you know, before the market open and after close, you can see in the pre-market session and the post-market session that some of these trade a lot.
And I think, you know, sometimes, you know, people look in the pre-market and they see the futures are down, for example, then that's normally a decent indicator that the market is going to open up lower.
And so people can then execute, you know, trade in the short and or, you know, the opposite.
If you see the futures are up, you know, the market is going to open up most likely.
And therefore, you're able to put in an order, the pre-market for a long product.
So we see a lot of that.
We see a lot of investors around the world, frankly, trading.
And that's partly, you know, some of the volume in the pre and the post-market because, you know, something like, well, I mean, a number of these products, but definitely NVDL, which is the 2X NVIDIA, has really become a kind of a global superstar.
And so you have people all over the world trading that and if it's outside of their time zone, you know, all they can do is put in an order and wait for that order to be executed at the U.S. Open.
And so you get a lot of volume in some of these names in the pre-market because there's people around the world that are trading and it's not obviously the market's not open in their time zone.
So that contributes to that flow as well in the pre-market.
That's interesting, Evan.
So I feel like we covered a pretty good amount here today.
We can do another, you know, five or ten minutes, see if anybody has any other questions or items that they want to cover.
I guess I'll just flip it over to Shai real quick.
Shai, we've been talking about these for a little while.
You've mentioned interest in drop and some of the others.
If you were going to be working things like these into your portfolio, what's your process for analyzing them?
It's a little bit different.
And I've seen your spreadsheets.
I know they're pretty thorough with models and breakdowns.
How do you go about analyzing ETFs like these?
Yeah, first off, like kudos for the drop one.
That's my big time favorite just because a lot of these ETFs, like they say, it's like disruptive.
But really, there's a couple, they sneak a couple of names in there that's like not really part of the ETF thematic that shouldn't belong there.
But this drop, every single one of these are just monsters like Microsoft, Google, Meta, J&J, like Adobe, Texas Instrument.
Like there's this monsters over here.
And I'm loving it because it's covering a lot of the thematics, not just like the tech.
It's covering health care.
Even industrials are involved in there as well.
So one of the ways I flag like these kind of companies or ETFs are, I look at all the names.
Do they actually have a moat?
And I can already tell you for this drop one, almost all of them do.
So boom, check.
Next one I go is, all right, fundamental profile.
For these kind of king of disruptions, like I want them to kind of have enough cash flow to be able to fund potential growth avenues down the line.
And a lot of these, like they need to have 20 plus percent free cash flow margins, in my opinion.
Just on the fundamental profile, just like be able to fund growth strategies down the line.
And a lot of these have that.
So always like it's a two-prong approach where you look at the moats.
So like more of the thesis and theory of each company and like what they're trying to tackle or disrupt in the next coming years.
Like right now specifically, the biggest disruption is obviously AI.
So that's why I love seeing like meta, Google and Microsoft, like essentially being 20% of this drop holding.
I'm like, beautiful.
That's amazing to see.
And the next disruption for like the biotech space, which I think is just prime for M&A, is going to be J&J, which I do think they're the specific healthcare stock where they have a ton of cash.
They're not really – they don't have the thumb on like the high growth areas right now, but they're going to be because they have – that's just how the biotech world works.
Like the big dogs eat the little fish.
The little fish are usually the hot disruptive companies that create this brand new drug or brand new whatever's in the pipeline is revolutionary.
That's like the Viking therapeutics essentially.
They're just going to acquire these Viking therapeutics and then vault themselves up to the race again where like they're leading the path.
It's always going to be J&J and NVO and then – I'm blanking on other names, but there's always like – there's a big four in biotech.
They're always going to be there no matter what, in my opinion.
So J&J is a perfect way to also play the healthcare space of this like disruptive drugs that are coming down the line because there's going to be a ton of drugs coming down.
Exempric-related, NASH-related, just like even genomics.
I do think genomic names will start getting acquired next couple years or a year or two by these big pharma names.
So that's an interesting exposure as well.
And then Adobe, I think Adobe is like – there's few stocks out there that have the fundamental profile as Adobe where I'm looking it up right now.
I mean, jeez, they have 40% free cash flow margins.
That's absolutely absurd.
And in my opinion, yes, there's some potential – it's definitely overdrawn.
But like there might be some headwinds on AI tools out there for Adobe's specific mode.
But I just don't think so at all.
So regardless, like I think Adobe – everyone can agree that Adobe's just been a disruptor for such a long time.
And you find – let me try to reframe this back to the beginning.
All right.
So the way you – like the first step is like finding the mode for each company and then validating that mode through the fundamentals.
And going through the drop – each fund, one by one, each name within this fund, you can see the fundamentals back up the initial thesis that you found when you looked into the company.
Like they have those juicy free cash flow margins.
They are gap profitable.
They're growing their top line above average with what the market's doing.
And they've been doing it for years and years.
Like they've cemented themselves at the table and they're staying at the table due to their fundamentals.
And they're going to continue just disrupting.
Like I know it's like a pun on the name, but it's continue disrupting.
And if they're not producing anything organically through R&D, they're going to just go acquire another company who has a product that might disrupt the market because they have the luxury with the free cash flow that they have producing every single year.
Like Adobe alone, I'm looking at their fundamentals.
Like there's $8 billion this year alone in free cash flow.
Just this year.
So incrementally, every single year is going to be $8 to $10 billion in free cash flow.
That's a ton of software names that they're going to acquire in the private and public markets just on one year's free cash flow.
Like that's the optionality that these disruptive companies have the luxury of having.
And that's why it's really important when you examine these kind of ETFs that they have these kind of fundamentals to back up the most of these companies.
Like I love Cathie Wood, but like she's got a lot of fucking garbage, a lot of garbage in our R&K fund of companies that, yeah, revolutionary ideas.
Like if you look at the fundamentals of those companies, like they have minimal optionality because they have the luxury of printing cash like a lot of these monster names and drop where R&K has like Roku's like kind of a mess.
Teladoc's definitely a mess.
There's a ton of genomic names within R&K that's just like, why is it involved in here?
Like they're not going to make any revenue for years and years and they don't really have the luxury of any kind of corporate strat.
There's just relying on data and like partnership deals.
That's the only flow they're going to get.
It's like, it's just like more idea driven where like this like specific drop is like idea driven backed by fundamentals.
And that's an important pairing that you need to have to outperform the market.
Great stuff.
One point I was going to make, and this is kind of an interesting thing as to, you know, the likes of the J&Js with Big Pharma is that, you know, I think that, you know, first of all, what you're, what you're kind of articulating is, I think, something that we've seen.
You know, now over the last 12 months, which is the year, you know, of the incumbent, meaning that, you know, we've learned that some of these incumbent companies that have, you know, strong moats, you know, huge balance sheets, lots of free cash flow.
It's just really hard to compete against those companies.
And we talk about the tech industry, you know, all the time.
But one point that I think is really super interesting about the large big pharma companies is that the advent of AI, I think, is going to make these companies really, really attractive.
I mean, clearly not all of them.
But one particular thing has sort of got my attention, and that is that in AI, when it comes to the big pharma companies, you remember that a lot of these established companies have been doing drug trials, experiments, and things for decades.
Now, that information is not public, so meaning that the company is the only entity that has all of the information about all the trials that they've done, all the different experiments, et cetera, over the years.
And now there's a unique opportunity, I think, for using AI, and it's going to be a slightly different application than people think, because it's analyzing the existing data sets that are stored at these massive companies.
And the gains that I think will come from that will be huge to some of these incumbent companies, because they have the data.
And obviously, the AI models need the data to provide the breakthroughs that I think people are looking for and being excited about.
So one of the reasons I personally think that, first of all, healthcare, just more broadly, is the second most represented sector in DRUP.
And the reason why healthcare is so exciting is not just because of the potential for a lot of these startup companies that are doing great things, but it's actually a big potential for using AI in the large, most boring, established big pharma companies, because they have the biggest data sets.
And I think that's where some of the biggest gains will come from.
Yeah, I'd like to double back to a point I heard a bit earlier about the larger tech companies being able to acquire.
So if we look at something like Adobe, Adobe had to abandon their $20 billion acquisition of Figma.
I think in the, although these companies have a lot of cash, I think the ability for them to actually acquire these smaller companies will be quite difficult.
And I wonder how you guys see that affecting the larger incumbents, because you talked about it being the year of the incumbents.
Huge.
Like, I think the Google HubSpot, like, I don't think that should get halted.
But just because HubSpot, there's a ton of competitors, like Adobe's a competitor, Salesforce, like CRM is a highly competitive field where if this gets, if this gets halted, there's a big issue at play for any kind of deals for big tech going forward.
I do think, I love what Will was saying, where like, and also you, Jax, like you were just kind of referencing where they are limited.
So they can't really go for these kind of companies, like they're like on a mid cap, but they could just go acquiring the data route where HubSpot has a ton of data.
And I think, could this be a way for Google to acquire HubSpot just to get that, like, all those first party data sets into their AI or LLMs?
Like, they need that potential infusion.
That's a great plug for HubSpot.
Like, yes, $40 to $50 billion is a really, really expensive price to pay for HubSpot, especially in the CRM space.
But I think that data is so valuable and we're at, we're at the time where like absolute early innings of this like AI thematic that data is legit like gold right now, especially for the LLM space of like what they can actually turn into.
Like, they need it right now as soon as possible so they can actually innovate and adjust and tweak as it goes on because it's an absolutely necessary step where like data is a new oil.
So, like, it's truly, truly a real saying, in my opinion, for the climate we're in right now.
And more customers as well.
You know, that HubSpot and all these products, it's a consumer product business.
So, they've got, you know, tons of customers that for a large company like Google or whoever, you know, it's always interesting to acquire, yes, the data, but also, you know, a huge new database of customers.
Perfect.
Perfect.
All right.
We are going to move into wrap up in just a minute or two here.
Maybe one or two other questions.
First one that I thought you will, for anybody that is interested in learning more about these ETFs or some of the processes behind how they are run, where can they go to do their due diligence?
Yeah, the best place is to go to the website directly, which is graniteshares.com.
So, you find all the information on there.
And like any fund or any ETF, there's going to be an official prospectus and a host of other, you know, fairly comprehensive documents that give you all of the risks, et cetera, associated with it and the details around the strategy.
So, the website is definitely the best place to go if you're looking to do research.
And then just more broadly, you have LinkedIn, Twitter, other places where, you know, we're going to be, we have a subscriber or an email list you can subscribe to from the website, et cetera.
So, you know, please feel free to reach out to us.
Obviously, if you've got any questions on anything that we do, but I think the most comprehensive place will be the website where you can have all of the fund documents and materials.
Yeah, that definitely would be the best place to go about this and go checking it out.
I also encourage everybody to follow our speakers that are on stage.
We, of course, have Will joining us, the founder and CEO of Granite Shares.
We've got some awesome investors and traders that are on with us pretty often in Shai, Whale, Emperor, Jax coming up on stage and giving us some new information as well, talking from that crypto angle as well as some of the institutional background.
Jax, did you have any other thoughts on this convo that we were having up here?
I think this was a great wrap up.
I think everyone was able to take away a lot about ETFs.
And I think people should, if I can mention one more crypto thing, there will be a crypto ETF, a Bitcoin ETF, launching in Hong Kong.
And to kind of keep an eye on how that may affect some of the inflows.
Got it.
Yep, we'll continue to keep an eye on that.
Shai, any final comments for you?
Be very, very cautious of ETF titles.
I think people actually look at the holdings to see if it actually makes sense to own this ETF based on what the title is.
Because a lot of them are just noise and misleading.
So it's due to your due diligence.
Like, drop is definitely not one of those.
Like, they actually symbolize this disruption.
So, like, that qualifies.
But there's a lot of false starts out there.
Yeah.
Great, great point.
Like, an AI is a great example where you have AI ETFs have been around.
And if you look at the holdings of an AI ETF, you might be surprised in terms of some of the names that are in there thinking, wait a second, does Goldman Sachs do anything with AI?
I didn't know that.
And it's, you know, maybe the CEO mentioned it once on an earnings call sometime.
But, yeah, some of these funds can be a bit limited because there's diversification limits or restrictions.
So, you have to provide a minimum amount of stock.
So, let's say it's like 25, 30 stocks.
And, therefore, if you're trying to hit a specific theme, you, by definition, have to dilute a lot, which can obviously make the product much less valuable to people.
Really good points.
All right.
Evan, I will turn it over to you to close us out here.
Yeah, it's been a fantastic morning so far.
Started on the spaces around 830, some pre-market talk, we did some live trading, and then got a really good ETF masterclass in here with Will and Jax and everyone else.
So, definitely go in, give Will a follow.
Appreciate him joining in on these spaces.
And we're lucky to be having these conversations with him and his team.
Shout out to NVDL.
Was at $2 billion AUM for a little, just under it.
A tad bit now.
I think we get NVIDIA new all-time highs at some point.
Soonish, a couple months.
Maybe it's earnings, whatever.
And I'm sure NVDL will be doing great during then.
Awesome, though.
Appreciate the spaces.
Make sure you're following the speakers.
I know we've got a couple more stuff coming later this afternoon.
So, stick with us.
But, yeah.
Enjoy your lunch hour here on the East Coast.
West Coast.
Good morning.
And, yeah.
Appreciate it.
Talk later.
Thanks, everybody.
Appreciate you, Will.
Thanks, guys.
Love you, Will.
You are.
Have a great day.
We'll be right back.
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