Projects
![]()
No projects found
Investors
New
DAO Treasuries
DATs
Lend / Borrow APRs
Chains
Categories
Spaces
Fear Index 8: Last Time This Happened... | Market Check
Recorded: April 1, 2026 Duration: 1:11:06Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by none other than BB.
There is no second best live YouTube stream to talk about the markets.
Welcome back, guys. I'm Snorlax. You also know me as Tommy.
I'm joined by Prometheus and, of course, Max.
I think we might have Chef coming at some point as well, but we're going to have another great show for you guys today.
Obviously, a lot of volatility in these markets over the last one to two weeks.
We thought we were dumping. Nope, we're squeezing.
Are we at war or are we not at war?
I guess we have some questions for this market.
I'm sure we'll find some more information out in this wonderful saga tonight
during, I think, Trump's speech is tonight, but I'm not sure exactly when that is.
Nevertheless, guys, we're going to discuss all of that. And of course, more importantly,
what it means for markets, both in the near term and long term. But before we can do that,
before we can talk about this huge squeeze on the NASDAQ and equities, I mean, Bitcoin's not
really participating, but is that delayed or is that, you know, maybe a sign of weakness?
Again, before we can talk about these things, I'm going to ask you very nicely if you can hit the like button for us.
And I think there's been enough volatility that I view looking at the soybeans chart today as a bad thing, even though the chart does still look bullish.
So make sure to hit the like button so we don't have to do that.
We can just pay attention to things like risk assets or at the very least,
you know, assets that we are more interested in than soybeans.
But yeah, talking about the markets.
I mean, yesterday we got, was it?
Yeah, it was yesterday.
I mean, I feel like these days have been so like,
they're all blurred together with these headlines that we're getting.
Yesterday, we found out that there's like talks of a piece or at least like a ceasefire.
It's not really that different than last week, but all that matters is the market's reaction.
Right. And this is, I think, the market's interpretation of a hard taco by the Trump administration.
by the Trump administration. And thus, we got an aggressive squeeze higher. The Nasdaq, I think,
And thus we got an aggressive squeeze higher.
is pumped probably like 5%, 6%, 7% from the local lows. Bitcoin has pumped a few thousand dollars,
but really the squeeze, I think, has been seen more so in equity markets, specifically these
Mag7 names. Is crypto lagging this pump, right? Or is the weakness that we're seeing in crypto relative to equities?
Because for the last few weeks, it's kind of been the opposite.
Equities have been weak, but crypto has been strong by not continuing to make lower lows.
Now we're kind of seeing maybe the opposite dynamic where equities are squeezing, but crypto is not really following along.
following along what does it mean for the market right is this just a sign that certain risk assets
What does it mean for the market, right?
are going to be a little bit more sensitive uh to you know a real reversal or does it mean you know
maybe bitcoin is loading the announcement a delayed reaction i guess we'll talk about it on today's
show but how are we doing guys what are we seeing in the markets i've seen somebody has already asked the question, but how is the tired of
winning index looking today? Well, I think the market is at a major inflection point.
Talked at length with our discord this morning about that, where we're seeing equities bouncing up
into sort of retest
the previous range
that it broke down from. You're seeing
Trad5
vol coming down
into a region
that has acted as support
over the past couple months.
You're seeing a lot of shit coins looking moderately curly,
but not really moving yet.
So for me, it's like I'm just not particularly interested in like...
I have to sit on the fence post just a little bit here.
I have to sit on the fence post just a little bit here.
I do, unfortunately.
I do, unfortunately.
So, you know, I think something is coming up really soon.
But I don't think this is the place to just, like, chase the TradFi pump or, like, pile into crypto quite yet.
But I definitely have some, I have a good feeling that there is some vol imminent and I will be excited to
try to play that whichever way it goes,
but I'm just not particularly confident at this inflection point on which way
that is. Yeah. Either up or down aggressively very soon. Got it. I mean,
yeah, truly, yeah.
Yeah, I hate to do that.
But yes, that's actually how I feel.
Not even being a meme about it.
What is that?
Nike.
Oh, damn.
What the hell happened to Nike?
Yeah, prices it hasn't seen since 2015. I mean, it's been
down only since
COVID.
I mean, I can't say I hate Bill Ackman
getting
smacked.
Doesn't he own like 10% of the
company?
Does he? I'm not sure.
I'm not sure. Christmas tree if i've ever seen one yeah really steady healthy
downtrend um i kind of like the vault crush that we're getting um you know there's definitely
some certainty coming back into the market a little bit is what it seems like.
You know, crush, you know, crush some of the premiums.
Interestingly enough, too, we did not backfill, you know, I'm not a big gap trader, but we didn't backfill the gap on the VIX from the April meltdown.
um from the april april meltdown and i'm starting to see see it on the timeline a little bit where
i think people are in my opinion a little bit too sure in calling bottoms right now
i would have liked to have seen at this point if there was going to be a higher timeframe bottom, either blowout and volatility or more hysteria. I think
there to my liking for, you know, calling a bottom, there was not that, I mean, we bounced off of
the level kind of we've been watching in the discord on the indices and some form of rebalancing
does make sense because we've been in this kind of steady state downtrend
on most names now for
about 30 plus days at this point. So
some form of rebalancing does make sense. I have my thoughts on probably
why that is. It's probably more so centered around oil is probably why we're
seeing kind of the balance we are right now um and the expectations for what's to come there with potentially the
straight of or moves uh opening up soon but i'm looking across the board and it's still hard for
me to get super long anything right now i will say my line in the sand is if you get above 6,800 on the ES,
it's probably, I don't think
you can be bearish anymore.
What level?
Yeah.
Yeah, I think acceptance back up,
you know, kind of within that upper range,
you know, the bottom is, is probably in at that point.
But, you know, you could still certainly see a rotation up to there.
It's just going to kind of be how we react from that level.
You know, I think we're pretty much at the top of this relief bounce personally.
Unsurprisingly, I think that I was expecting a hard taco from trump to come
um i said it i think about two weeks ago they are going to try to control the narrative
so that the market is viewed as okay the market has moved down because of the middle eastern war rather than all of the
issues with financial plumbing and private credit because they can control that narrative right they
can control the the narrative about the middle east just through jawboning with trump but you
know there's also a flip side to that too where if you overplay your hand and you effectively say
that there's going to be peace or ceasefire or the reopening of the straight of i love to say it straight of poor booze
um it's just a fun word man um if that does not happen the market's increasingly pricing
in perfection with a squeeze like this so if there's any deviation from that you do run the
risk of kind of having the, you know, this controlling
of the narrative backfiring. At least that's what I think. I'll keep saying this has never been about
oil. It's never been about the Middle East. It's entirely been about positioning unwind
more through liquidity and obviously the rise of volatility that kind of illustrates that.
kind of illustrates that do you know what the oil volatility ticker is
nah oh i got it oh yeah oh vx oh vx i believe oh hello hello jackas
Hello, Jackis.
I think they probably kill oil volatility into the ground.
Of course.
That's why I think there's a certain trade on oil right now,
which is only for the paid members.
Wait, sorry, what were you saying
so the old trade is obviously being 100x long when the ratio piled in in historical levels right
right
they really are just doing the whole ETH fractal aren't they
just pin it now
I think it's safe to assume that oil is
mostly going to remain in a range unless
you see the highs break
I agree
I mean where we rejected from
makes sense
kind of accept back within you know I agree. I mean, where we rejected from makes sense.
Kind of except back within, you know, below 100, you know, pretty clear trade at that point.
And to your point, I just, I think at a certain point, they just will step in.
I think that oil prices put a huge, huge, huge pressure on the administration.
Especially with what midterms coming up.
A lot of other countries are feeling the pressure.
I'd be pretty surprised if they let oil ride from here.
I don't think oil right now will make new highs,
but I think at some point it could.
But I think they'll lock it down first.
But I have no edge in trading oil,
so i think
yeah i don't really want to trade oil because i'll keep saying i don't think this is about oil
or at least the the weakness has never been about oil you've had risk assets selling off
like three or four months before we were even really seriously talking about oil
motor oil
what do you guys think uh that means for the oil companies?
Exxon, Chevron?
I haven't even taken a look at them, to be honest.
I don't think it means that much
because they will have way higher margins
for an extended period of time.
I think it's actually pretty bullish.
But obviously, no, they are correlated to oil prices,
but not like one-to-one.
So if oil is to correct here,
I think obviously, you know,
companies like Exxon, Chevron, Arterax,
they'll correct a little as well.
Perhaps do a little bit of sideways after their recent breakouts.
But then I think they'll continue to rip again due to higher margins. And obviously, I do believe that oil has a much bigger thesis for a whole decade.
But locally, again, I think prices could halt it.
This breakout is...
Yeah, I agree with the premise that this is probably the perfect oil oil price for these companies don't they talk about that in Landman
I you want it to be high to for the margins but you don't want it to be too high to where it's like really hitting consumers at the pump
mm-hmm
I think the thing is is that
like obviously I think the thing is that obviously, but also lots of companies when they are higher prices
off, obviously it's going to hurt consumers, but there is bigger parts of the economy that
will simply have to get the product regardless of the prices,
and they will just raise the price,
and the consumer will pay for it always.
But obviously, there is as much as you can squeeze from the consumer too, right?
It's true.
But the thing is that lots of like we often forget how much of stuff
nowadays is like under government contracts and so forth right like your
your public transportation won't stop doing public transportation just because
oil prices are higher now they'll still keep purchasing right trucks that are
delivering food they'll deliver the food
regardless and that means higher uh margins for these companies but uh obviously uh the
groceries will be a bit more costly because of that you know what that exxon structure looks like for me is i think i've mentioned this before
for like another chart i can't remember which one but like the tesla are you on xom okay um
the tesla move back in like i I think it was 20, coming into like 2020.
It gave you that breakout, the retest, and then it ripped.
So I'm going to kind of wonder if we're going to see Exxon maybe give that move.
Maybe not quite as aggressive, right?
Because I think Tesla with a pretty small market cap back then.
This is also COVID.
Yeah, but I think I see the point, Tome, and I do agree with it.
I think obviously it's not going to make me sell my Exxon position,
but I do think that some correction like this is totally possible and if it happens i'm looking to to add i think yeah
i think what we can definitely take away from what's currently happening is
there's going to have to be some sort of further reliance for the future for American oil manufacturers or refineries.
I think that's pretty clear, you know, and the trend's probably just beginning, if I were to guess. This is a crazy move.
I like the stream you gotblins, he's right. I don't even know what the like button's at, but you better not make me look at soybeans
today. you know prometheus you mentioned that we didn't fill that gap on the vix but we have done today
is we pretty much filled all of those gaps on individual names from the last week oh to the upside yes what uh what names specifically uh nasdaq
meta has basically filled it um tesla i think filled it
let's see if the dow got it dow hasn't gotten it yet
it's a soy day
nah brother it's uh it's arm day it's definitely not a soy day i assure you
dude i've been i worked out once in the past like four weeks which is so strange for me i would hate that yeah i mean i bet you're
healthy though yeah feel feel like recovered don't feel like any aches or pains or anything
that can be nice nice. What do you guys think about the fact that Bitcoin hasn't gone higher with that
news that we have this aggressive squeeze in equities like a 3%, 3.5% green day on indices across the board,
and Bitcoin is still just kind of cut.
I mean, I think it's just chewing up through lots of sellers in this range.
Accumulation zone to me.
I think it's going to break out when it's ready.
Or break down when it's ready, but I think it'll miss the breakout.
It's the SpongeBob meme.
You can go when you feel like it.
Pretty much. i mean we did just have a new uh quarterly and monthly value or quarterly and monthly um
open up so you know it makes sense that take a little bit to kind of get into stride from a directionality standpoint you know and i mean
the levels are pretty clear within the range um
and i don't want to be i mentioned this to the discord this morning but
you know if we can start to see confirmation of a breakout unlike what we saw earlier in the month right or earlier in march
middle march where we had the failed acceptance above the range we accepted back within um you
know if we can finally get acceptance outside of the range you know you can take bitcoin pretty
easily from 75 up to 85 um without much thought at same with ETH you know take it all the way up to 27
from 22 that's a solid 20% move and I just don't want to be an early buyer of you know altcoins or
you know much of anything because one I think the range could continue to range if I were to place a bet.
I mean, I think we could very much well still see
another easily two to four weeks of ranging
before we see some form of breakout on either side.
on either side so i just kind of want to play like patient i want to play the patience game
So I just kind of want to play the patience game.
and i think there's opportunity in stocks specifically um and in higher volatility
assets like crypto is just i mean it's anemic it feels like you know
well it's anemic but i do think if Bitcoin breaks out from the range, all coins are going to reprice pretty quickly as they tend to do.
Yeah, I agree.
I am kind of skeptical we're going to break out from the range at this point, though.
The question though, too, is like kind of which one for me, at least, right? Where,
The question, though, too, is like kind of which one for me, at least.
where's money going to go to seek that opportunity? And for me, it's probably more
major focused than individual name focused. You maybe see a little bit of on chain heat up, but
I think people are pretty just fried in alts you know and
i don't think it's something like where oh you know nobody's buying let's buy so it's going to
reprice higher kind of thing because you need some form of belief within the individual you know or
within the sector itself within you know alts or individual names to drive prices higher.
And it just feels like a lot of that belief is really left.
And so if people are seeking some form of upside appreciation, to me, it's probably more major focused.
Like I'm not super intrigued by altcoins right here.
I need to see more for majors first
yeah i was thinking i don't want to beat a dead horse but when we speak about majors i will say there's like if you want to accumulate any major i think the absolute last one to be
accumulating is solana. I agree with that.
I think it's fair to say that Hyperliquid is more or less,
maybe not yet by market cap,
but sentimentally replaced Solana as a major at this point in time.
It's a good point.
I agree.
I think there was that kind of like,
I don't know, call it like the silver to Bitcoin,
or you can call it, you know, whatever you want to Bitcoin, whether it's like speculation vehicle
or is definitely shifted towards hyperliquid. I don't hear anybody talking about salon anymore.
And I don't see a use case for salon anymore anymore because there's better projects for traditional financial rails.
Onchain has gotten taken out to the woodshed, right?
What does Solana do at this point?
It's like if people want to speculate, most people are doing leverage.
leverage and so it is hyperliquid before we cook to elsewhere i seen a chart today on sol
And so we're going to Hyperliquid.
yeah regarding the on-chain activity and it went literally parabolic in like 2023 24 and
yeah in december 24 and it's literally right now all of that activity went back to zero
Now, all of that activity went back to zero.
Like it's not yet at zero, but like it started at zero before that.
And it's basically back to zero now.
Like it's like 1% away or something.
So as we discussed before, this is good for the space.
The degens got degent out.
And the space can recover from this and i think again even
though i might be like i think so solely asd might go up when i look at so ease or so bitcoin i don't
think that soul is really worth it i've been saying that for a long time oh it seems like it's breaking down too yeah oh wow yeah versus
eth i mean finally yeah i mean you can use actually the i believe the sole ease on uh
yeah it's it's not much different but it seems like so is on binance which is a tradable pair
like sol is on binance which is a tradable pair by the way is breaking down and the target is 0.025
to me down here in this said region um yeah that could that could go as well we'll see i
well we'll see i i listen i mean i'm not bullish on sol anytime soon but um
but i do think that at minimum it's coming at uh like lower prices let's say yeah you know
this looks like minus 40 this looks like uh the hyperliquid chart
This looks like the hyperliquid chart.
Yeah, I see what you mean there.
This looks identical to the hyperliquid chart.
Oh, I see.
You're telling me not to short Sol ETH here.
I think we should put a pair trade on.
I hate pair trades.
Explicit pair trades. i like contextual pair trades right
where you're using the pair to figure out the usd direction but i do not like just explicitly
trading like long opening two positions simultaneously effectively
why is that?
just there's a lot of scam wicks with pair charts
especially like a bitcoin pair charts
so you can have the right idea
but end up against some like volatility that you didn't expect yeah i mean it looks like the sole eth pair is like in relation to here on hyperliquid
so it looks like it's gonna you know move down in a big big big big way
now what does that mean for the markets i mean you know place your bets but
yeah i mean this loss of value is just egregious i mean losing all this value just confirms the
distribution and you know it's always been funny to me about this chart is the biggest move for upside obviously
happened from like late 2023 into early 2024 like that's when the pair marked up four to five x
but the on-chain season happened during the slow grind up for soul eat that lasted basically a year and a
half um and so i think the fact that we're now in a downtrend is pretty reflective of
the weakness of just generally speaking soul on chain like there's not working i saw the chart that the jack has mentioned
for on-chain activity how it had just like capitulated and i'm kind of going to ask
myself all right is soul eath going to do the same thing now because contextually when we
look at the way this pair is traded over time if it's now a reflection of on-chain activity then
sole eth should probably reprice a lot lower
yeah sole btc look like
i think the next i mean the next narrative driver in my opinion is going to be fundamentals
it has to be um because i i think if it's not it's
i don't think you're going to see any new meaningful money flow into the space
and also i think people are just way too rinsed and washed from uh on chain
the cycle to like yeah to like want to come back i definitely from the standpoint of like new money
coming in yeah i mean jack as we did talk about that was like we need the death of solana on chain to happen for this asset class to recover
yeah of course it's good it's coming um i still like we discuss uh
altcoin season i i don't think we will ever see an alcohol season of the old where everything pumps
like obviously you know things will pump you know when there is a risk move so you'll see like
you know luna pumping too but it will pump like 100 and then and then again bleed down i think uh
the next like waves of risk in within the space will be will be stuff that's integrated within
threadfi to some degree you know stuff that that has a use case, generally speaking.
And obviously, you know, there will be stuff that's just used for speculation,
but not all stuff that's used for speculation.
So what do I mean with that?
Dodge has pumped each cycle with the market.
I think that will keep on happening and few few individuals as well
such as pepe probably um but likely you know not everything you know i don't think uh
because again it's there's a simple logic behind in the past we had just a very few names
so it was not hard to pump everything.
But now it's so diluted that the market will be picky.
What it buys.
Yeah, I agree with that.
That's a big learning lesson people had this cycle.
My opinion was you just can't throw shit at a wall
and expect to get the freest 10x of your life.
I'll be honest.
I tweeted this yesterday.
The sentiment in equities right now reminds me a lot of altcoin bag holding in 2021 and 2022, where you could pretty much hold any company.
where you could pretty much hold any company.
And really, I think the way I've talked about this before,
if you guys used to use Twitter and X during that bull run,
you could just search up a cash tag and you could find a ton of great alpha
on why this would be a good asset to hold.
Now you click on a cash tag in crypto and it's full of bots and drainers
and other stuff like that.
But in equities, it really does remind me of like
2021, 2022, all coin bull market, where they have like these very tribal communities, they don't
even pay attention to index pricing. They're not paying attention to Bitcoin pricing, right? They're
paying attention to the way their shitcoin or their shitco is trading, irrespective of everything else.
And the type of tweets that I'm reading,
it's like I'm seeing a 2021-2022 flashback in a lot of ways.
We had the alt season, but for equity small caps,
is kind of what I'm saying.
I could see that.
I mean, equity small caps went berserk
if you're in the right ones. Did we get some news or something?
What?
Why?
Oh, I just...
Vol's getting slammed.
They're doing it again, man.
They're going to call the top on the VIX again.
They're going to be disappointed.
Just my opinion.
I will say what definitely lightened the blow, in my opinion, for the sell-off
was the kind of obvious lead up
into the attack on iran um by design yeah if they had they not done that
you know that lead up to it i think you would have seen much much much much more explosive move
from volatility thus far and uh and just like the broader pullback
yeah i mean i said this earlier in the show but making the market narrative about the war
they can control that narrative they cannot control the blow up in
private credit but they can use controlling the narrative of the war to suppress volatility
because you just bring in a ton of hedges and you can keep squeezing them repeatedly
i do think that is by design.
They know what they're doing, right?
I mean, I think it's safe to assume at this point that like,
when we're talking about the way they manipulate the market,
it's not by chance. Because every time you see a speech by Trump,
he's talking about
if the market is up or down on the day like without fail so you know they're watching it
i think trump puts the valuation of stocks
at more or less like the utmost importance for him like for him that's a measure
of like how well he's doing honestly so yeah i mean i mean it's very easy right because
so like people can see that and they can say yeah markets are up like like it's it's some
tool that people can measure plus let's not forget that boomer is still the wealthiest generations
in the history of mankind and they have their savings in the stock market so
they care a lot currently 75% of American wealth is owned by boomers isn't that insane yeah it's crazy so listen also the highest level ever
by the way the number one thing that matters when there are elections is where is the stock market
and then there's everything else like like the future of young generation, that doesn't matter, right? It's stock market first because that's Boomer wealth and then it's the young generation
future.
Yeah, tell me about it.
You guys see SpaceX filed a confidentiality for the IPO?
Yeah, I think they're trying to keep the market propped up for that as well.
Insiders are going to eat
on the SpaceX IPO.
But they were nice enough to reserve 30%
for retail, guys.
Dude, retail is going to get rinsed
on that IPO.
Rinsed. Absolutely rinsed.
Literally.
I saw something last night. I don't even know
if it's real or not. I'm pretty sure it was, though.
But I'm pretty sure
that
OpenAI just completed
the largest ever private seed round.
It was like $122
billion.
I'm just like, guys guys just go public already like you're just skipping extraction you're just refusing to give retail the chance to like invest and you're just doing all these
crazy private rounds and then you're just gonna ipo and dump on everybody it's so bad
and they are like yes that's what we are doing
what are you gonna do about it I'm gonna fade the IPO is what I'm gonna do
but what's so shitty about it is like dude I've been using this tech for two years now
it's like if these were public companies I would have bought some of their stock years
ago.
But no one's been able to participate
at all.
It's terrible.
I mean, it's all through
these private deals.
And people are
very much trying to get into them.
I was seeing somebody reposted
a tweet yesterday about how Instagram hustlers are trying to get into them. I was seeing somebody reposted a tweet yesterday
about how Instagram hustlers are trying to find their way
into the Anthropics seed round.
Or not the seed round, but a private deal.
And I almost feel like...
I also saw another tweet earlier this week
of this person who had a friend
who thought they were invested in the space
private round but apparently that um what's the uh what's the word for for like the tradable asset
of like private deals i can't remember the name of it oh gosh what is it i can't either
but um yeah he thought he owned a part of of a private deal in SpaceX, but apparently it had been sold to some offshore fund.
So, he doesn't know if he owns it or not.
Oh, man.
Sounds really, really illegal.
He didn't borrow against that expectation.
He'd be in trouble if he did that.
Oops.
Yeah, I mean, I think the market, too,
is just kind of over all the noise from the administration,
to be honest.
Like, coming out saying that there's going to be a ceasefire and then the iranian foreign minister came out and says
they will not accept a ceasefire
like
i think it's just kind of one of those things of like actions speak louder than words
point yeah i agree I think it's just kind of one of those things of like actions speak louder than words at this point.
Yeah, I agree.
What Polymarket says about a ground invasion.
It's been pretty reliable.
Oh, we can bet on what he'll say to the,
in his address.
How nice.
Didn't?
I saw something when I was gone, but he had a speech,
and weren't people expecting him to talk about something,
and he just went up there and said that John Deere and Caterpillar
need to make their tractors cheaper?
That sounds about right. I think i remember that i mean
they the poly market odds are currently 54 chance of a ground invasion by the end of april
it's a coin flip but it peaked it peaked at like 70 to 75 uh over the weekend so it has come down
that's gambling tommy yeah it is but look i mean poly market bettors are typically pretty
well informed after all lots of i mean it basically just removes the veil of uh
of sophistication from insider trading,
which we already know happens in markets.
What do you make of hood here, Prometheus?
I see you got it up on the chart.
Oh, yeah.
I think, I mean, one, I think it's probably oversold here locally.
You have a pretty strong daily bullish divergence forming.
You're accepting backup within.
I was shorted until this morning.
I took off some, or until yesterday, took off some exposure when I saw this divergence forming.
But you're accepting backup within your previous month, the previous quarter value.
Hood may find a bottom here. You know, we are down over, you know, what, 50% from the highs from over 50% drop. So, you know, I mean, I don't hate hood here. Um, I actually longed a little bit, um, this morning when we accepted
back within this value, you know, at least playing this for some form of localized balance,
some form of rebalancing. I mean, just looking at these highs, right. I mean, generally speaking
with a divergence forming with kind of this kind of structure, you're going to get some form of
rebalancing to the upside.
You know, how high this balance is, we'll see, but at least some form of, you know, reset on the RSI.
And yeah, do I want to be buying here from a long-term hold perspective? Not necessarily.
And the reason why I say that is because you did get below. I mean, one, this is a, you know,
is because you did get below. I mean, one, this is a, you know, extremely fragile structure and,
you know, distribution. I need to see probably some more, you know, accumulation happen here
before really jumping on the bandwagon that I want to be, you know, a buyer at these levels
for a long-term hold perspective, but I think it's worth a trade right now. I think it's worth a long right now.
Just playing the chart. I'm not trying to take too much into a lot of my trades right now with the macro backdrop and the geopolitical backdrop, just because I think there's a lot of noise and
it's very, very, very difficult to make sense of all of it. And I think that for majority of people,
myself including, it's probably just going to cloud my judgment, honestly. And I think that for majority of people, myself including, is just probably, it's probably just going to cloud, uh, cloud my judgment, honestly. And I think just playing the chart just makes
sense right now. Um, so that's kind of what I'm looking at here. You know, we'll see. I mean,
if you drop back down below, you know, start closing the daily below 69 again. Uh, you know, I'll exit,
I'll exit this long, the long position. And then I probably won't reshort it. Um, unless we get a
really good setup, you know, some form of like retest here and then I'll, you know, enter in and
retarget down to like 49, which was my initial targets, but it's kind of what I'm looking. I
think if you get, you know, around $50 on hood, I think it's kind of what i'm looking i think if you get you know around 50 on hood i
think it's a fantastic buy opportunity for like a long-term hold perspective and just like fill up a
little bit of your uh stock portfolio with it because i don't think robin hood's going anywhere
i think that trading continues to go towards that you know kind of like casino gambling mentality
you know user friendly interfaces which robin hood is you know and
no matter what we think i mean they have done a fantastic job like i mean fidelity is fidelity
uh you know there's what td ameritrade you know list kind of goes on and on i had a friend who
was trying to figure out their 401k on fidelity and he's like i literally don't even know how to use this um and then they go on robin hood and it's super simple and super easy so
i wish we had something like robin hood in new york
i love rob note honestly like it's a platform
as a platform yeah i think it's great um but one thing europe would do is probably regulate
uh revolute sorry regulate uh robin hood before it even comes to europe yeah that's what that's
the most you think like before a first child would be born, you know, Europe would regulate that child.
Truly a socialistic heaven.
Speaking of Europe, congratulations, Jackis.
Ooh, thank you.
I suppose you mean the football. do once the World Cup I mean it's been 20 years for check the last time we played the World Cup so it's a
huge achievement oh you guys got in we got in but obviously no it's like way
more like I believe the World Cup qualifiers are a bit unfair, to be honest.
Because, like, the qualifiers are way more tougher, way more competitive in Europe, you know, versus like some Middle Eastern countries that compete from that region against each other.
countries that compete from that region against each other.
But at the same time, you know, like Bruce Beattles, our current
national team isn't the best.
Like 20 years ago, we had one of the best teams, I would say, and they failed miserably,
unfortunately.
But it was a really good team.
Nowadays, it's like game-wise, not really good.
But they play as a team, which sometimes is more important.
You know, there's a heart behind.
There is a unity and uh and the team now is
and the fans you know kind of united over the past two games as well so both games we were the
the worst team but we want both both games and i like that to be honest but again i think at the world cup you'll need more than that
and speaking of also bosnia advanced over yeah
oh god that was uh that was rough for the italians like i do gotta feel a little bit bad
but uh you know you can't get a red card in a match like that a stupid red card nonetheless
it's just mind-boggling to me a country like italy is going to miss three consecutive world cups yeah nuts it's absolutely
nuts man and it sucks to be you know a fan of the u.s team and i mean jack is like you said
your team will play
as a team, but this is supposedly
our golden generation, and we're not even
remotely competitive with better
competition. Not even remotely.
Two friendlies against
Belgium and Portugal
before the World Cup, and
there's nothing that I saw
over the last week and a half that gave me
any confidence that the United States
can do anything at the World Cup.
But maybe we see a change for the better.
For me, yeah.
Oh, sorry, I was going to say, can you look at, like, Doge?
Sure.
I'm curious what you see with Doge.
Curious what you see with Doge.
I mean, I do like to see, I mean, if I'm, so if I'm just looking at this,
I do like to see this kind of like, is it what looking at,
what is looking to be some form of base and accumulation getting put in here?
Yeah, I think, you know, know again these unmitigated highs which is completely opposite of bitcoin but i mean granted it's a shit coin um i think if you
can start accepting outside of like this clear very very very clear value that we've created
yeah if you can start getting, you know, accepting outside of this range in confluence
and the RSI on the dailies curling up too nicely
with this compression.
Doge might be worth a punt, like super small size.
If you're looking for some form of upside here from Bitcoin.
Yeah.
Yeah, I mean, I like the compression. I like the, you know, kind of was looking to be accumulative, um, in nature, you know,
generally speaking, I mean, we get these, we get this kind of price action, obviously at the lows,
I'm sure you know that. Um, so, I mean, I think, you know, um so i mean i think you know super small size potentially worth a punt and um
you know your invalidation is an acceptance you know below this range obviously but
not the worst looking of charts
you just got to kind of ask yourself like you know a lot of people or i should say the
expectations buying altcoins is that there's going to be you know more volatility in the
altcoin than there is in you know trading something like an ethereum a solana bitcoin
you know some of the majors um but does that actually come to fruition is the real question.
Yeah, Doge looks interesting to me like i i really feel like the market is at such an inflection point um do me a favor now can you pull up e dominance i was talking about this uh this
morning with our community um this chart is like either this is bottomed and about to start ripping
higher um or we basically just broke down but it's like maybe just zoom in on it a little bit
and go to like the daily or something like if you drew a diagonal across all the highs
from this recent downtrend,
kind of maybe even tighten it up and
like connect it a little more, tighten it up
a little bit like that, right?
I'm like, if this chart ends up breaking higher
and like it looks like your RSI is kind of curling as well,
that's usually a good risk on signal for shit coins.
So I'm like, either Doge and all these coins are just like omega-bottomed
and about to, at minimum, bear market rally.
Or maybe this is just another tap tap before rejection but i don't know
it's at a very interesting spot that's for sure yeah i think so too i mean you kind of got perfect
retest as well uh backfilling a lot of the inefficiencies from the move that we had up uh in the middle of last year and it's not a structure that i would
like really would trade to be honest um i see exactly what you're talking about though
i yeah i mean it's difficult because i mean if you look at this right
and you're like okay you
kind of needed to like hold these lows right like these lows were you know slow is pretty important
you potentially have a setup potential kind of like po3 style setup and we saw this
interestingly enough max on pepe right before its Coinbase announcement.
You know, you kind of potentially are in like this PO3 deviation.
And that would be in confluence with getting back above your previous year VWAP.
I think if you can, you know, accept back above here, that's a fantastic, fantastic look for ETH dominance.
fantastic fantastic look for e dominance and deviation plays are you know if you do get a
deviation you get confirmation of the po3 right confirmation of the acceptance back up above the
support or below the resistance or however you want to setup brewing um i would want to wait for confirmation and i
that's kind of what i was saying like you know if you want to be long eth here i mean
you know we're still technically within the range but i mean if again if you can start accepting outside
of the range you have just holding spot you know a 20 move up to your next target region
which is fantastic and i mean majority of people are probably going to be taking that on you know
some form of leverage you know whether that's altcoins, whether it's actually trading leverage.
And that's a great, great, great move on super, super low leverage or even just spot.
Just kind of looking at it like that. So again, just waiting for the confirmation of the range
break. And I don't see any world in which, you know,
you should not be looking for, for longs.
I think remaining flexible on both sides of the trade is really important.
And people are just so stuck in like being on one side and at least having,
at least just having contingencies.
Like I understand you need to have conviction in your trade and in yourself and in um and what you believe but um you know being flexible here is
very important like for instance right oh alerts are going off i thought i'd turn that off um
for instance like you know i'm short a bunch of individual names but then on the contrary some of those shorts are
inherently like long stocks in a way right and i think just playing the individual chart is very
very important right now because like i mentioned i think just the overall noise within the market
creates a lot of clouded judgment or will create a lot of clouded judgment or will create
a lot of clouded judgment most
including me
do we care that today is april fool's day
I'm not trading
off of that personally
to be honest
are I making forget about it to be honest
are they making fools of us
they're definitely laughing at how easily they're manipulating the market with these headlines man i'm i'm certain of it i will acknowledge this for eath
eath is famous for not cleaning up its lows when it bottoms eath is famous for it it's eath is the
greatest to ever do it when it comes to like completely ignoring the lows yeah like truly
there's no second best it is only eath i mean it's a piece of shit, but when it comes to this one thing, it's the greatest.
You know?
The greatest.
It's like a guy playing hockey, and he can't stick handle.
He can't skate.
He boozes before the games, but he can fight, and that's all he can do.
He's a one-dimensional superstar.
He doesn't even have a good slap shot.
Yeah, you have him at the point, and he just rips slap shots.
That's all he does.
He fights, and he rips just one-timers.
But he can't do anything else.
Doesn't play defense.
But when it comes to leaving the lows behind,
ETH is like there's no second best. the lows behind, ETH is...
There's no second best.
There's truly only ETH.
So I don't mind the ETH bottom here.
It actually looks more like historical ETH bottoms than not.
My problem is Bitcoin is kind of the king of cleaning up the lows.
Bitcoin is kind of the opposite. cleaning up the lows, right? Bitcoin's kind of the opposite.
Bitcoin's your all-around player, likes a stick handle, good team player, team captain, a good leader.
Bitcoin likes to clean up its lows.
So I don't know.
I'm torn.
I'm really torn. I hope Bitcoin doesn't need to clean up its lows.
But that concerns me just a smidge, if I'm being honest.
I'd love to hear Chef's take on that.
Because I know, Chef, you probably are more aware than me.
ETH loves to leave behind the lows,
but Bitcoin not so much.
What do we make of this?
I would answer with a simple argument.
I want you, Prometheus, to keep BTC like this.
Right here.
Zoom out on the weekly.
Okay, like that.
And now just put ease beneath it.
Sorry, you can go more to the right, but after, you know.
Yeah, I only need a 2022 bottom
okay
and 2021 sorry 22 2022 bottom with the current price and ease down below in a new pane.
And you can delete the oscillator if you can.
If you don't want to, then just... Okay, and leave me 2022 and leave me...
Yeah, and so I want you to draw a line beneath the the june 2022 and ftx bottom
like that towards the low towards the low
like this yeah it doesn't have to be press no no, just like, sorry, the June one low,
just like a divergence, basically.
Yeah, just below.
Yeah, it doesn't have to touch it.
You do the same on ease.
Right here.
Yeah.
And now I want you to show the current prices as well.
So like, changing the scaling.
Yeah.
And I want you to connect the April low from last year
to the current low.
And I want you to do the same on these and i think my goodness and i shared while
as of now i still cannot rule out a sweep of 60k look what shrek just said
you cannot fully rule out a sweep of 60k and bitcoin just it but i think there's a good chance
that uh that it doesn't really go much lower than that
i like it.
Now, what do you think of... What do you think of this?
The Omega compression.
I like it.
That's my thesis.
What if ETH does this? That's my thesis.
What if ETH does this?
Oh, no.
That is Max Payne indeed.
I can't take that.
My mind is too fragile for another rejection at 5K, I would probably be rather if he's just died here
than to see another two years of range.
Yeah, I think I'm pretty clear on this.
Just die immediately rather than have another years of range.
I think that's the worst outcome ever.
Second that.
Yeah, could you imagine?
I don't want to imagine.
I think we already sort of got that, though.
Like, that thing. Yeah. I think we got that with got that though, like that thing. I think we got that
with this latest move to new all-time highs and rejection because there was sort of a range before
that, right? And we had that move up and that rejection. So I think we already got that.
But you can always get one more.
Let me...
Instead of one more sweep of the lows, one more 4K rejection.
One more suicide maybe how's our netflix fractal looking jackass looking good i'm looking good yeah yeah
i mean it's looking like pinpoint that's great news i love to hear that
like pinpoint.
That's great news.
I love to hear that.
To be honest,
that outcome
made total sense to me
before finding the
the fractal.
At what point do you think eth is at on the netflix chart
you need to go to the left the board over here yeah oh my goodness
i love how he can't scroll it down.
Yeah, zoom out a bit more.
Sorry, zoom in.
Or scaling.
Maybe a lot.
No, I'm just kidding.
I think you'll be able to see at which point we are.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, right here. Hmm.
Hmm.
What does Vitalik have to do for you to do this?
What does Vitalik have to do for you to do this?
I think he needs to actually buy Ease for once
instead of dumping it on us.
Or maybe he needs to stop dancing in front of the public crew.
Or maybe he needs to dance more.
I don't know.
It's one of those. I would take that. I think he needs to dance more i don't know it's one of those stop i would take i think he
needs to dance more yeah yeah he needs to bark at robot dogs more yeah it's that's not even a debate
like we can't pump until that happens so did netflix like acquire paramount or something what was this pump
i thought uh paramount acquired um
what was it was it netflix oh did they wow
a lot of people don't know this but netflix has like
tens of billions of dollars in long-term debt like 80 plus billion dollars in long-term debt
uh-huh
warner brothers plus billion dollars in long-term debt uh-huh Warner Brothers
that's right
hmm i will say the price action has been super super hideous this week on bitcoin yeah
this week on bitcoin yeah
yeah i'm not really interested in trade i just have not been interested in trading crypto perps
recently um said that multiple times over the last few weeks but it's too much risk to shorting it
don't really want to long it more interested in using it as signal for the rest of the market all right you guys want to
wrap things up it's probably a good spot all right guys thank you for tuning in to market check
as always a reminder that we host this show throughout the week
on the following days when the New York Stock Exchange is open,
Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.
So yes, we will be back on Thursday and of course Friday as well
to wrap up your week.
And I guess we've got a speech tonight,
so we'll be able to decipher what that means for markets as well.
But until tomorrow, guys, thank you.
Reminder that we host these shows. I already
said that, but we start these shows around 1130 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. So you guys can catch
us tomorrow around that time as well as throughout the week. But also make sure to tune in for Market
Talk hosted by the legendary King Wabi. That is an X Spaces, not just hosted by Wabi, but also
through the Because Bitcoin account on X.
So make sure to stay following and subscribe to both so you can be notified, not just when
we schedule those spaces, but of course, of course, when we go live.
Thank you guys for tuning in, though.
We hope you have a great rest of your day and we'll be back tomorrow.
But until then, have a have a great rest of your day great
rest of your week if for some reason we don't see you again uh this weekend of course stay safe thanks
