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Fear Index at 18. Whales Buying. Retail Running. Who's Right? | Market Check
Recorded: March 12, 2026 Duration: 1:17:16Space Recording
Full Transcription
Good morning, everybody, and welcome to today's episode of Market Check brought to you by BB.
There is no second best live YouTube stream to talk about the markets.
Welcome back, everybody.
Happy Thursday, right?
Thursdays are never beating the allegations that they're probably going to end up being red.
It seems like today is no exception, but maybe for crypto it is, which is currently flat on the day. We'll discuss all of that
and then some throughout this stream. But yeah, I'm Snorlax. You guys also know me as Tommy. I'm
joined by Tucker, Jackis, Louie, and Max. We've got a full panel for you guys today, and we are
going to cook you up some delicious alpha. At the very least, we're certainly going to try. But before we can do that, before we can dive into the charts,
the crypto, I hate to say it, it's cursed, the crypto relative strength. It seems like oil is
pumping back again. Is this a complacency or is oil just going higher? I guess we'll discuss that
and then some. But before we can do that,
I'm going to ask if you guys can hit that like button for us. Let's not look at any soybeans.
Although, although one of the smarter traders I know is getting very long agriculture stocks. So I did find that to be pretty interesting yesterday. I know that's something Prometheus has talked
about for like a year at this point so uh
maybe we do want to look at uh at soybeans but uh i guess that's up to you guys to decide the
audience i'm gonna be checking today so yeah so i guess we might be looking at soybeans so hit the
like button louis will be policing it uh it seems but uh yeah let's go ahead and dive into the charts
it's thursday you guys should
know the drill at this point what that typically entails uh a red market fridays are typically
green but i said this last week i kind of feel like thursdays and fridays will switch roles a
little bit i guess we'll see how that holds because you know thursday is red. But at the same time, you know, we have Bitcoin basically flat on the
day. ETH is up about a percent. Is this a sign, is this relative strength a similar trait to what
we saw last April where crypto front ran the bottom? Or is it a sign that crypto is just kind
of waiting, waiting and watching for equities to give its move to sell off again. Again, things we'll discuss on today's show.
Some problems going on, obviously, with private credit and under the hood.
We'll talk about that.
I'll do a video on that later today.
But obviously, that's having some impact on the market as well,
with banks selling off here throughout the week.
But yeah, I mean, Hyperliquid is up to $37.5, man. Pretty
incredible to witness that strength even throughout, I mean, whatever we want to call
this regime that we've been trading within. But there's no secret, right? Hyperliquid is benefiting
from the fact that you can trade stocks and commodities on chain. And we certainly have
a lot of excuses to do that right now
uh so how are we doing guys what are we seeing in the markets do we have any thoughts on everything
that we're seeing today um i mean we kind of know the drill with thursdays at this point or at least
i feel like we should uh that today it shouldn't be too surprising obviously it's going to be more
important kind of how we trade next week at this point.
Good morning, guys.
Good morning, good morning.
Good morning.
Good morning.
Well, I will say this. I don't think that crypto looks as bad as stocks.
When I look at certain large caps they look they look awful man and that's a bit
difficult for me to reconcile why that is um but you know looking at most of the large cap nasdaq
names it really feels like they want to take a stab down. Maybe that's short lived. Maybe it's
very aggressive. I don't know. But structurally, these look like they're topping while crypto
looks like it's trying to bottom, which is very confusing, right? Which is very, very confusing.
which is very, very confusing.
Yeah, it's hard to reconcile, right?
So when I look at the MAG-7, no, don't want to own it, want to short it, looks bad.
When I look at crypto, I'm more in level by level,
but more hedging for a catastrophe than like actually wanting to short
um you know because it's like it's hard for me to imagine a world where mega cap tech slides hard
but crypto somehow just doesn't feel it at all we have seen that before for sure like i think back to
maybe like october i think it was October 23.
That happened.
That precise thing happened.
So it can happen.
Or maybe I'm just misreading what equity is doing.
But yeah, go ahead, Louie.
It's a bit hard to reconcile what the hell is going on. Because they look different from each other.
Is there a ticker that represents the MAG or do you have to like create it there is one etf but it's not truly the
mag 7 because they have like discretionary positioning and stuff so i would have to like
add them together you gotta add them together but it doesn't take that long if you want to do it i
mean it but wouldn't that like not
really work though because it's by price then and not market cap yeah you'd have to do it by market
cap not price yeah all right let's let's just let's do let's do bitcoin divided by the cubes
there you go okay looks kind of bullish
the only problem is like it's bullish off of the back of qqq looking weak which
for usd prices means jack so
hey you can still buy 117 qqqs with uh with one bitcoin it's true
i don't know man i think i think things are gonna resolve a bit lower just given like what max said
the look of mega cap tech and and vix and oil the bad combination man it's a bad it's a bad combination
you know we pull up oil or pull up the vix
give me oil
man i know it's it's a it's a hard job being the chart guy. Can you say oil for me, Tucker?
Oil.
Okay.
Did I say oil?
I said oil.
What do you want, sex hour?
That was like some real southern hillbilly.
Oil.
The knee-jerk for mine cannot comprehend the Southern drawl.
The Neutral.
He needs some
Motor-Ole.
Some Motor-Ole.
Motor-Ole.
Tucker has more of an accent than I do.
Dude, I really don't think that I have an accent
at all. I'm pretty sure
Kansas, Missouri, Midwest
is the least accent possible.
I don't think either of you have an accent.
I think that, Tucker, once in a while, you just rip a word that sounds really Southern,
but it's not like you have a consistent accent.
Tommy, you have no accent at all.
You've been Denver washed At this point man
I never had an accent growing up either
Really?
For those who don't know
I grew up in Alabama
So I should have a very southern accent
I just don't
I thought you were
College or something
Well I went to college
You wouldn't have It it'd be denver
it's all the liberal coffee in denver man yeah transformed them i had some delicious liberal
coffee about uh about an hour ago it's hands down the best coffee there is like there's
there's liberal coffee is the best like just Like a liberal pour over.
Yeah.
Best, man.
I want to see rainbow flags
very political
badges on their shirts
and nose gauge
piercings.
Some anti-ice
posters in the coffee. Yeah, yeah yeah that's what i mean like i
want to see the most like angsty liberal workers ever they grew up with their their families are
like probably worth hundreds of millions of dollars but they just grew up with like a ton
of like white guilt or something and and then they just got a weird haircut
and went to go make coffee for a living.
Man, that liberal coffee is just...
It's the oppression tears in the latte that just hits the...
But it's not actual oppression.
It's like self-inflicted, self-made, like, I'm oppressed.
And then they just make you a latte.
Thank you, sir or ma'am, whichever it is.
It is so delicious.
Are you creating an analog for the South African diamond mines?
What?
I don't know what that means.
Yeah, what? The little blood diamonds from south africa
oh that's a good movie oh great if i want i don't know what that means but i'll tell you like if i
walk into a coffee shop and they have like conservative propaganda no problem with that
just i'm not drinking your coffee you know like i's going to be just burnt. That's motor oil
right there. Motor oil coffee.
Yeah.
I don't want that, man.
I want that artistic
oppression coffee, man.
It's so good.
The real pressing
questions.
Go to Valvoline and just buy all the oil they have
how does oil against lean hog futures look that's a good that's a good question
because i'm just thinking like real memes do i have lean hog, yeah. You do have to pay extra for it, I think.
I did recently upgrade my trading view.
The ticker is HE.
Tucker, you know.
I know the ticker.
There it is.
I'm having trouble understanding you today, Tucker.
I don't know why.
Is this pair correct here?
It looks exactly like oil.
A barrel of oil paired against a hog?
It's one to one right now.
Are you telling me that one barrel of oil is trading at parity with
one hog are you trying to tell me that right now because this is history if that's the case
oh look at that what happened yeah one league one lean hog is worth one barrel of oil so you're
telling me i can take all my pigs and go trade them for a barrel of oil right now one to one yeah you're kidding me
I mean that's great news I'm sitting on a lot of hogs right now yeah just squealing in the garage
I'm going to Valvoline with my hogs right now I'm gonna trade them in
I'd like to exchange my hog for a barrel please
change my hog for a barrel, please.
This chart either looks like a great
compression
or like the euthanasia
of euthanasias.
Louie, zoom in again.
I feel like this is one where it's like
you have to bid that first
liquidation pullback it's just like silver yeah literally the silver chart it's like
silver hasn't gone on to make a new high yet though not yet but not yet not yet but yes silver did this
and now it's re-accumulating why don't we put some fractals on
I know it's a big ask
now you're getting greedy
I think this is probably the future for oil right here
you might really say it like that
yeah
future for oil Oh, yeah.
right.
Really not even.
all the bars pattern.
Why am I slow?
Wait, what's the market cap of oil?
Is it actually 5 trillion?
Dude, I mean, that's got to be hard to calculate because they're constantly just like...
I mean...
...pulled out of the ground, right?
It's got to be bigger than that, right?
Like there's just no way that Bitcoin at one point was like half the market cap of oil.
I mean, supply is...
I refuse to believe that's even a possibility.
It says
it's valued at roughly
six or seven trillion in economic value.
It doesn't have a hard market cap.
Okay.
So this is about as high as we're going to go.
Honestly, Louis, I think we're probably topped on that, man.
Cut and run?
Yeah.
All right.
I mean, dude, that's a once in a multi-decade move.
Take profit on that thing, man.
It's oil.
No, it's oil.
What are we really expecting like you know
three hundred dollars a barrel like no not happening like all trump will do if it starts
to climb and make a new high he's just gonna like basically get on the news and be like i have a
master plan like oil will be dirt cheap when i'm done and then it's going to crater. It's like, they cut it.
I don't know.
He's not going to let it pop up,
man.
He's just not. He's going to talk it down no matter what happens.
Wasn't the Treasury saying they were
just going to store oil?
That was their...
Yeah, they're not going to let it make materially
new highs, I don't think.
You know, I think you're honestly at this point playing for, like,
a deviation of the blowoff that it had.
Are you on CL, Louis?
You're on USOL.
Okay.
Pretty much the same, I know. Yeah yeah just how far back does it go put it on like
the monthly i feel like will's outlook saying that put it on the monthly they're right on the monthly
that is a little thing to say. Yeah, it's slightly different.
It's a V-adjust.
I mean, yeah.
I doubt you get really above 150.
Listen, oil will go to 200 and above, guys.
But not on this move, Justin.
That's my expectation.
When, Jakus?
What about the timing?
I do think that the timing could be like 28 when it goes to 200, but I think it's gonna get halted here for like the rest of 26.
Then sometimes 27 start to move up.
Something like that is my estimate, but it's really hard obviously to predict timing because
you never know how long some of the ranges can take but uh and then you're like when you have a
range usually the market's waiting for some trigger to pop it and oftentimes there's a fake
out first too something similar to what we saw here was this move there was that uh there was
that like range then drop down then secondary drop down you know because because the first
spike was actually already the iran strike in 2025 and that already sent the prices pretty high
but then it got halted price bled down for a double bottom
and then boom what i'm thinking about is that i do not know what will cause it
what will cause oil to go to 200. i do not know what but it will be interesting
i don't think it's going to 200 man it's going higher probably in the midterm year for u.s elections to the worst thing it's
time and time again it's been shown that the most crippling thing for u.s elections is high gas
prices like they are not gonna let this thing go much further i'm telling you midterm year no way
no i'm not saying it's happening now. I'm saying in the next few years.
Okay.
Yeah, right.
I'm not saying right now.
I'll forget about it by then, but you could be right.
You could be right.
Yeah.
I'll move on to a new shitcoin or something.
You know, I don't know.
When oil memes.
Oil? Yeah, I really haven't. When oil memes. Oil?
Yeah, I really haven't seen many oil memes.
It's so funny.
I have this one friend who's not in crypto, I guess, but he listened to my advice in 2021, bought some meat, made some money.
He's been sending me this meme.
It's literally just called u.s oil
and he was telling me about it and it's been doing well i don't know what i did on this move but i
probably did well it's just like the classic like normie
normie friend finds a meme coin that outperforms everything you've been watching for the last
year you know classic
yeah i mean if you look at this like leading into like i feel like everyone's looking for this you
know like oh oil just popped i'm seeing like the like the the fractals oh last time we saw oil big spike in oil we were in the 2008 crash right like
oil well i mean even if you take it from down here but even if you just take it from here
you know it rallied for a year and a half before eventually you know crashing
and like i'm assuming this is kind of around where 2008 happened as well.
You know, so like, obviously a little different, this is a big move.
Like this was like a little more gradual, but you know, and it did the same thing
in 2021 as well.
Right.
This rallied for two years before, like we saw markets officially kind of top so like we're seeing this oil spike everyone's like
oh bearish confirmation you know like oh you know everything's fucked well i mean you could
be saying that for another year or two before anything like that actually happens you know
but i'm no expert on this to be honest uh so that's all i'll say
the thing i think is interesting with uh with oil right now it's kind of how it's
looks to be impacting uh yields and treasuries
because obviously if oil prices are going to stay elevated it's going to be harder for them
to keep a lid on some of these yields I agree with that I. I think the current oil situation is definitely raising
uncertainty, which obviously makes the yields go up. At the same time, I think both Trump
and Iran will be forced to capitulate soon. Trump will be forced to capitulate due to midterms,
so he cannot be extending this war into them and Iran is running out of ammunition. So,
like both nations are playing with time here in my opinion. i think when it gets solved uh it's gonna make oil prices to range as
things will stabilize um for some time obviously and then uh
and then uh yields will probably come back uh where they were before
I think Treasury is pretty bad right now.
i think treasury's pretty bad right now
Like TLT, I think, looks horrible right now.
And obviously, it's not going to be one for one with something like the 10-year, but if TLT does dump, there probably is a spike in yields coming.
spike and yield is coming
we're at support right like in theory we should be bottoming out here uh on tlt but
We're at support, right?
it's like we're seeing lower and lower bowl into support which feels dumpy to me like that looks perish what oh we lost tommy what the rocked
yes uh you'll be forced to use evs by not by government enforcing it onto you but simply by oil
being too expensive but I think by the time the the tech the cars the EVs will
get actually much cheaper and it will be pleasant experience by then because
like the infrastructure infrastructure will be built
their prices will be cheaper and they are actually kind of all righty so
i don't think it's going to be in the current uh in the current way where evs are mostly for
for people with higher salaries to put it lightly
yeah they're gonna become more affordable you know they already are by the way in china louie
they are way more affordable china is leading this way but when China is trying to export over to Europe or
really like to other places it's you know those countries put in place
tariffs onto those because otherwise it would totally ruin their industries.
I'm speaking mainly about Europe here.
Yeah, they usually lead the way with stuff like that.
But yeah, I mean, they got to just become more affordable to be realistic.
But I mean, I see a ton of Teslas out there man maybe it's just the area
i live in i live in i guess i see a lot too louis i see it on yeah i see a lot right and i i actually
i mentioned this on a on a show i think last week but like um they just like a tesla dealership just
sprouted up out of nowhere which i've never seen one before
near me so that was that was interesting too we've got some um some rivian dealerships by me
really see i've never seen one of those i haven't seen any of those dealerships but i do see a lot of those driving around
in check uh recently i've seen lots of ads for byd and neocars
but they are still pretty pricey due to the things i mentioned
i mean cars are expensive in general right now too dude it's crazy how much cars are as expensive in general right now, too. Dude.
It's crazy how much cars are right now.
I actually can't even believe it.
Cars cost what apartments used to cost.
Not so long ago.
Yeah, car payments are like almost a rent payment. but yeah rivian chart this is tough you know
i want to like it yeah i want to think it's going to do this but i'm also like i've been
watching for that to happen for like two years it feels like what this no no no like the finally it pops up you know yeah but
it just just hasn't wanted to do it we will be buying the generational ten dollar double bottom
later this year i don't let me find myself out of it maybe
I thought myself out of it.
Yeah.
I mean, if oil remains elevated, I think there is a narrative for these EVs.
I know Jack has just been talking about that a lot as well.
I think, you know, you could front run that for sure.
Like, NIO looks really good.
This is one more playing in the Discord as well.
This looks pretty constructive here.
One of the things I like about Rivian, too,
on a fundamental level,
is it's kind of like an indirect proxy of longing,
the shift in innovation from san francisco to texas
because rivian has a ton of like a lot of their manufacturing occurs in america i want to say
texas in particular so that's kind of like a underrated narrative for Rivian that will probably, like there are not many ways that you can kind of capitalize on that shift.
Right. Like Silicon Valley is effectively moving to Texas right now.
Frisco, Austin. Those are like kind of the two main they're becoming like tech hubs.
And I think you're going to see a lot of Silicon Valley people who aren't moving to miami uh they're gonna end up moving to texas
tesla already moved right a while ago they like led the way with that i believe so
Yeah, we got all this EV talk and then Tesla looks like this, you know.
yeah we always ev talking and tesla looks like this you know um
Bipolar chart.
Yeah, Tesla is just something else.
You know, part of me says this is going to pull an ETH, right?
With like the minute all-time sweep of, sweep of the all time high,
and then come all the way back down.
And then another part of me is like, is this just a, you know,
compression before like a big like parabolic move? You know, I don't,
I don't know. Um, but I think we're going to find out soon.
to find out soon it's still hanging around up here um when spacex launches which i think the
It's still hanging around up here. Um,
earliest date and i looked it up yesterday was like june then i think it becomes a really intriguing
but maybe spacex ipo is also just like a massive liquidity drain at the same time.
So I'm not sure.
That's for real.
That's it.
It actually irks me so much that all these companies are just fueled by private rounds.
Public never got a chance to invest in them.
And then they're going to IPO at the most egregious valuations and just dump so hard on
retail just taking up just taking it straight out of the crypto vc playbook and uh it's going to be
one of the single greatest wealth destruction events for like retail that's just clueless on
how frothy these IPO valuations are they're going to dump on them so hard man they are going to dump on them so hard they are going to dump on retail so freaking hard
it's going to be really sad
they're going to go down 95% off their IPOs
all of them
that's when you buy them
to be honest
if people are going to buy it
it's their fault
they deserve it
yeah it's just
I think about
all of our parents' generation got the opportunity
to shove money mindlessly into tech companies
and DCA-ing into the NASDAQ,
and they just got filthy rich off doing nothing.
And our generation doesn't have that opportunity.
You miss the boat on all the NASDAQ blue chips. um and our generation doesn't have that opportunity you know like we don't you miss
the boat on all the the nasdaq blue chips and then finally like the new tech of our generation comes
around and that's filled with just vcs all private rounds ultra high net worth like institutions and
individuals not available to the public until it's over a trillion dollar
valuation it's a complete scam man i'm actually very disheartened by that whole like process it's
it's very you know it's let's put it this way it's like it's very un-american it's it's kind
of the antithesis of the design of the free market i mean people could buy microsoft in the late 80s you know and
hit like a million percent return just by holding it with a small amount of money you know by apple
in the early 2000s amazon early 2000s netflix early 2000s and it's like there was a real
opportunity to like for the public to just throw some money at new tech, you know, innovation and print on it. And it's like, oh, so now like
our generation finally gets like the new tech. We've been using it for two years, but no one
was able to invest in it because it was totally boxed off. It's a complete scam, man. That's bullshit that they're all going to IPO at a trillion plus valuation with no public markets available for years.
While retail like us, who would have invested in this thing two years ago, if it had IPO'd at $100 million, $200 million market cap, we would have all been throwing money at it because we've been using it for that long. I don't know. It's pretty shitty, man. I wouldn't
touch those IPOs for at least a couple of years. Let them crash 95%. Let Che Math Pahoopala do to
dump on you, you know, with all of his friends from the all in poop cast, you know, let them
dump on you. They're going to shill you, tell you it's the best thing ever on IPO
while they dump on you.
And then you come in a few years later
and you buy it up. But it is bullshit.
It's complete bullshit.
It's retail.
The public has been
completely boxed out
from all this new tech, which is...
It hasn't been that way in the past.
It hasn't been that way in the past you know it hasn't been so
but you know what they say don't touch them you're gonna get dumped on by a bunch of snakes so
you know what they say easy times create weak men and weak men create tough times and we are now in the tough times. And tough times create strong men.
They'll be very strong, Mux.
You'll be very strong from backholding your ease
bags for five years.
I will be.
They're creating very strong vibe coders.
For real.
I almost find much more annoying the fact how, not the AI slope, the AI slope is pretty nasty, but like every single, you know, guru out there telling you how ai is going to
take away your job and you're gonna be you know living on a ubi i mean i think that's the end goal
the amount of that i see on twitter that's just like like cla, Claude just like, like, here are five amazing prompts that like,
I gave Claude that like made me five grand in like five and a half milliseconds.
Dude, how about you shut the fuck up and go do anything other than being a Claude shill?
You know what that sounds like, Max?
What?
The Uniswap ads back in 2021.
A little bit.
I can see that.
My Uniswap bot made me one ETH in five minutes.
Here's how.
That's real.
Yeah.
They make it seem so easy.
And if you've played around with any of these tools
you know like it is not like it's you're you're way more productive like it's the bot is doing
stuff that you don't know how to do or if you do know how to do it it would take you
fucking forever well dude everybody's vibe coding but you're vibe coding nothing like what are you
actually doing and not even that like you like you got to go back and forth over and over and
over and over again to like tweet things and then sometimes they do get confused sometimes like
they'll go back and they'll go back to an older code and uh like or mix things up and like you
gotta like they'll fix the mistake but
like it's like you gotta like going back you can spend a whole day going back and forth with a bot
and like still not get as much done as like you would think so like yeah these guys online they're
like oh it's so easy and you know dude they're they're unpaid clod shills man that what they're
doing is they just post something that gets like decent engagement from the algo yeah that's all it is and then they make like 17 from like a twitter
stimmy check and i'm like was that really worth it for you like that that's your life now is like
being like an ai shill poster on x it's terrible bro x has been destroyed i actually i it makes me so sad man x used to be so fun
like three four five years ago it is terrible now man it is insufferable it's insufferable man
i was really hoping elon would would make it better it it it made it truly so much worse. I have no question about it.
It is...
It's awful, bro. It's awful.
People are...
The incentive structure
is so backwards on the whole
thing. People are...
They are encouraged
and promoted and furthermore
financially rewarded
for just posting slop
dude it's like at least though you we have a slop detector at this point you know so we can i feel
like i can read three i can read three words of a of a post now and tell you almost immediately
if it's ai because they have like that. But what I'm more talking about.
Is like fake breaking headlines.
That upon first glance.
Can seem real.
It's written by a person.
But they're incentivized to just post something.
That's not true and polarizing.
Because it will spread and get engagement.
And then they get money from Twitter.
Like there's a war going on right now.
Breaking like. Israel's largest base,
bombed by Iran.
Whoa, this account looks legitimate.
And then you go to the comments
and someone's like,
at Grok, is this true?
No, this is not true.
Blah, blah, blah.
And I'm like,
dude, this person probably just made like 500 bucks
because there's millions of impressions on this fake tweet it's it's a complete show man it's a complete
show you show it's terrible but people used to not do that stuff because why would they they
didn't get paid to do it now they get paid to just lie on the internet. You can't even get reliable news from it anymore.
Like what's real?
What's fake?
This looks real.
It's got millions of likes on it.
10 million impressions, breaking headline.
Oh, turns out it's just some like grifter account that's, you know, trying to get engagement.
It's awful, bro.
It's awful.
And it makes me sad because it used to be awesome.
And now it's super shitty
elon ruined it man it's all what what twitter is becoming is it's just going to be a giant
it's just going to be ai talking back to each other it's gonna be ai talking to ai and then
engagement farmers that are trying to make a living getting engagement from basically ai accounts on x yeah horrible man
go pick up a golf club and book a tea time do you know of any alternative like like are people
on reddit now or is it filled with ai there as well i have no idea it's just over is all i know
i have no idea it's just over is all i know i've spoken to a few people who were you know on on
ct before elon took over and basically all of them confirmed to me the same experience that
after he took over the like sure you can have subscriptions sure he does you know
like pay something for the ads which wasn't there before but before then it was
really like people trying to help each other uh trying to network everyone was growing it was
pretty exciting uh again i i thought it's just subjective feeling but it seems it's the same for lots of people.
Yeah, it's terrible, man.
Absolutely terrible.
I don't know.
I've started to think about even just like posting on TradingView.
Like as much as I don't want to do that.
Like at least there are people who are like exclusively charting, you know.
But I'm like, I spent years building a Twitter following just for Twitter to get hijacked by a bunch of complete freaks, you know.
So I don't know.
It just needs to go back to normal, but I don't know if it will. at least they have this paid sponsorship uh tag nowadays i think that's a that's a good
move forward what is that it's like if someone is like paid to talk about a product which i don't
know how they know this but it'll say on the bottom of the the post like paid sponsorship
so like you can't have like these kols coming out shilling something and not disclosing that
they were paid to show it again i don't know how
they know no you have to you have to tag it manually you tag it manually that it's uh
they're just not gonna do it promotion because if you don't do it then uh
yeah exactly they catch you
i know man i know like remember back in the day when the internet was starting
all the forums he would type a post and then he would be coming the whole week to chat.
Like some some of these forums were actually live for like years. I mean I mean a single thread in them.
The internet did used to be better. I won't lie.
I mean, I was kind of like, I opened up the other day on a weekend and the first thing
I read was negative and I'm thinking to myself, nope.
Nope, not doing this again.
Going outside.
But as you said, this is bullish for humanity because people will essentially be disconnecting
more.
Yeah. And going outside. is bullish for humanity because people will essentially be disconnecting more yeah and going
outside people are starting to wake up to it like i'm starting to see these ads it's called like
brick where like you can set i don't know it's like a bluetooth device or what but you got to
put it somewhere in your house um and it'll automatically turn off like whatever apps you know
that are distracting like x instagram all the bullshit and in order for you to be able to get
access back onto those you got to physically walk to the brick like tap it um but it's just
no i've seen that my one of my good friends has that he like keeps it in
his car so like he can't go on apps or something and then like if he wants to go on them he
literally has to go sit in his car like in his garage to yeah so like makes it a hurdle yeah
it makes it a hurdle like yeah like you know fuck it like i don't need to it's good i i've
been there i mean i'm i need something like that probably the problem Well, it's good. I've been, I mean, I need something like that probably.
The problem is like, it's like, and my wife actually said this the other day
and she's right.
Like sometimes I go on X to like see what's going on in the markets.
Like sometimes you get like news pretty quick on there and you like get some
insights and then, but then like I scroll again and I get distracted and then I
find myself like scrolling for like 30 minutes you know it's very easy to just accidentally
waste an hour doing nothing I mean it will become a lot how you are able to
work with the algo what accounts you'll. And if you are able to like flip your X to be just your following and then in a recent
manner.
Right.
So sort you will sort by by recent and not by popular.
And and this way you can actually get decent content.
But the for you page is.
Ah, here it is.
Let's talk about the markets.
Yeah.
BTCs once again, although still ranging,
but I still have to point out this again and again
and again that every single time there is nowadays an SPX drop or WIX spike or
oil spike BTC just refuses to go lower anymore yeah like here yeah I will say eventually you have to look at it and go it well we
haven't really seen equities sell off that hard yet that I will say like I
don't know if I think Bitcoin would hold up if equity is really sold I think Max
to stop you there right there I agree but if you're gonna look at the March 4th
to March 8th sell-off, that was SPX dropping basically five percent in a what was it like
two days, two days. That's pretty big sell-off for SPX. If you're gonna look at how Bitcoin behaved
every single time in the past that happened,
you would see a wild nuke.
But this time, Bitcoin only, you know,
like it dropped from the range highs, yes,
but it didn't even make really a new local low.
That was in my opinion a first sign. i do agree if you know if spx were to drop here to let's
say 6.5 k you would probably see ptc correct but i don't think it would make a new low actually
anymore that would have to be spx truly going to like at least 6K. Yeah.
Yeah, I talk about this example a lot.
Where, and again, S&P hasn't really dropped yet, so to be fair.
But in this move specifically, you know, the S&P dropped 17%, right?
But Bitcoin was already, like Bitcoin was like already down here before like the big leg down for the S&P.
The S&P dropped 17% in like two weeks.
That's a big move down for the S&P. The S&P dropped 17% in like two weeks. That's a big move down for the S&P.
That's significant. And what did Bitcoin do? All it did is that. It made like a 2% lower low and then V-shaped recovered hard. So that's where I think a lot of people are going to get messed up
if we do get a bigger drop, right? They're going to be looking for bitcoin to do something like this when in reality
yes when in reality it could do this you know and everyone's looking for that doom and gloom
super low at a minimum or maybe maybe we get the sweep, but
this is significant.
And this goes back to Bitcoin
front running a lot of the downside
in global markets.
Because it does.
Bitcoin topped in January.
And the S&P
made fresh all-time highs and didn't drop until a month later, right?
While Bitcoin was already heading down.
Granted, on the first drop, like S&P finally dropped.
You got an initial leg down farther for Bitcoin.
But we've already kind of seen that, like, in a way, in my opinion,
unless this is going to get way, way, way, way, way worse,
which Tommy would probably say yes, right?
But, you know, wait and see.
It's something to think about where, like, there's no guarantee
if the S&P does drop from here, wherever that may go,
that the Bitcoin has to make, like make a big leg down with it.
So that's just something I've been talking about, and the data tells us that doesn't have to.
So I wouldn't bet on it being a guarantee.
guarantee.
I mean, I'd love for Bitcoin to rip here, man.
I would love it.
But, I don't know.
I'm just like spooked by equities.
Yeah.
Who isn't?
I don't know.
That's true.
This compression we're seeing up here, although not much yet,
but this kind of like flag here or pennant, whatever we're doing, reminds me a lot of this as well.
I said that you're going to point out the April price action from 25.
Now this.
That was such a sick move when it happened.
Yeah.
You know, like, we had the range.
We deviated it, got back inside, we were compressing here,
everyone was looking for this, and we broke up.
We didn't deviate it to the downside though this time, 30 points.
Yeah, you're right, you're right.
We did not
although i as well expect higher but i i don't really put much weight onto what btc is doing here hawkler like it can you know what i learned from the markets is that btc can go to 60 uh 65.5 k another three times just as it can go to the 72k another five times
and just keep on ranging
yeah we could just stay in this range you know
yeah we could just stay in this range you know
this is a good range though here actually when you when you think about it it's getting
really extended now to the point where it becomes close to the one we had at the end of last year and early January.
Actually, if you're going to take the low and put it up to January 1st, that's about 40 days.
You're coming close to that peak.
Yeah, this was about like a month and a half-ish, almost two months. We're at a month right now.
How long was the last range?
Like two?
Two months.
And a half?
The fact that we got this higher low here has me thinking that the odds of us going higher are higher if that makes sense
what do we make of micro strategy is anybody watching it oh i am but i'm not as much interested yet. It's still trading at 1.21 MNF.
And I really, like before I would get interested,
I want to see kind of that sideways price action for some time.
Perhaps like maybe, like let's say Bitcoin is bullish here, right?
And goes higher again.
Obviously, MSTR price will reflect that.
But what I would love is that if BTC price, like spot price, goes higher than MSTR does
and MSTR MNAV gets below one ratio.
Right now, it's still higher
i think that uh micro strategy looks a lot like oracle actually like the the downtrend that is from the highs
interesting not exactly like the whole bubble but like the downtrend from the high is trading pretty similarly
But in like what way?
What does it imply?
I'm not sure what you mean with it.
I mean, I don't know what it implies.
I just think it's trading kind of as like beta tech still.
Oh, I see.
So you think that they are like selling off together?
Yes.
I wouldn't say it's like exactly correlated,
but I do think there is some relationship between the two.
Although indirect.
I mean, technically it does make sense, right? Like Oracle is a software company, and we know that BTC was correlated to software.
So...
Software ETF is quite... I feel like the software ETF just looks like Microsoft.
Interestingly, I guess, you know, that makes sense. Do you guys have any thoughts on the private credit stress that we're seeing right now?
Not really.
I guess I've not read up enough on it.
You might have to fill me in oh it's just uh like all these private credit funds are uh like seeing recalls effectively
and or like capital calls margin calls whatever it might be withdrawals they can't really meet
them because private equity and private credit isn't exactly
a liquid industry. So it's, you know, I mean, think about it like, okay, you have, so like,
yeah, say you have equity in something like Anthropic, for example, that's done great,
but it's mostly paper value, you probably borrowed against it. somebody all of a sudden wants their exposure to anthropic
like you gotta you have to credit them to some degree maybe not like anthropic like these fully
private rounds but uh i mean some of them i'm sure have gotten like vested uh some of it's vested i
assume at this point right like with what they're exposed to but the crux of it
is it's a very illiquid fund so or like very illiquid vehicles that people are trying to
get their capital out of so they're taking haircuts in order to be able to get that capital back
um assuming that the capital that they're getting back is even good so I think there is obviously a lot of potential problems that could come out of that.
We're seeing financial institutions like JPM, Morgan Stanley, and today Deutsche
basically come out and have to halt the withdrawals or at least halt private lending.
Really? Not like withdrawals from the bank from their private
credit department but i mean i i'm in the camp that it's a domino effect that we're seeing
right like contagion is kind of starting to take effect and maybe it just translates into like an SVB sort of moment where you get a small pullback
and the move index goes up and they are stimulating somehow, but I tend to think there's going
to be some consequences this time.
Like look at Blackstone, for example.
I think it's bx.
Oh, oh boy.
Imploding. oh oh boy imploding and as as move is going up i mean we talked about it yesterday as move is
going up xlf is selling off pretty correlated with it so oh man
yeah that that looks pretty brutal.
That doesn't look like it's going to stop.
I don't even know where that's going to stop, man.
I was looking at that chart this morning.
I keep thinking about your MSTR city fractal, Tommy.
It's not very nice. No, it it's not and it's a little spooky
yeah i uh i mean i look i think like bitcoin's going to be impacted by if there's going to be
larger contagion in the market i think it's going to impact bitcoin it's probably going
to impact all risk if tech starts to sell off as a result of financial contagion.
Hmm.
Weekly RSI on this thing is lower than COVID.
Wouldn't this signal potential fed intervention somehow some way
they will i imagine they'll try at some point right like the move index hasn't moved enough
i think for them to like i'm sure i'm sure basent is watching it though i mean he's a he's a chad
we all know that uh i'm sure basent is watching it though i mean he's a he's a chad we all know that uh i'm
sure basen is watching it but i don't think that the move index is necessarily elevated enough
that the uh that they're going to step in just yet
What does Bitcoin look like against the PMs right now?
I think looking at the just Blackstone chart itself, what I think is that it is going to
bounce to perhaps like 130 and then probably roll over to like 70.
I want to say that looks like,
I'm not sure what I was looking at recently.
Make sure.
Yeah, I guess it kind of looks like,
no, not exactly.
Like Blackstone stuff, these large conglomerates start having to puke a lot of their housing.
They've been buying up back onto the market.
I wonder what that means for housing.
Well, we know they're going to try and keep the housing prices preserved, right?
Because there's a family stake in real estate right now that's pretty significant.
From the administration, that is.
VNQ, I think, would be the ticker to look at for that.
It's been in a perpetual range. how it's bullish yeah i actually like not that bearish on that chart i wouldn't say that i'm like
i know how to feel about it because I'm not a real estate mogul. What?
We hired you because you were the real estate mogul guy.
Tommy, get it together.
That would honestly be so poetic of boomers
to take profit on the market into real estate,
leave young people holding the bag on stocks,
and then just pump the shit out of real estate. That would actually be so boomer of them.
Yeah, it would be.
With all their savings currently. I mean, people people use like a defective savings account right The Blackstone current price action reminds me so much of Pendle action.
Oh, jeez.
Good old friend.
I feel like every few months or so, I hear the name Pendle thrown around.
And I don't know why it keeps lingering.
It just doesn't go away. It just stays.
Something like that.
That would make sense. The chart looks bearish but currently is heavily oversold.
Make it randomly bounce.
Fell off. Probably not, but it does look the same though
yeah i'm just like looking at this real estate etf right now man
like this actually does not look bearish
they're just gonna pump the crap out of real estate over the next decade aren't they
well yeah real estate held up and then rates are gonna start coming down
they're gonna pump it yeah it's gonna increase demand yeah young people will be living in
tents on the streets boomers just hate us
just sucks they were just such they're just such beneficiaries of like the best time to be
a complete idiot with a little bit of passive income to invest.
And I think that they're so damn smart because they just had a 401k and a Roth set up in 1985.
You don't get it. You just got to work harder, man.
Your generation just doesn't work hard enough, man.
You guys just don't know how to save
and invest man if you could just build yourself a time machine and just go back to you know the
very beginning of ue and zerp and political market manipulation and just mindlessly dca into it
while holding some like mid-level management job for 40 years
without actually accomplishing
anything you could make it just like me
you want to buy my house for 3 million bucks
I bought it for 200k 40 years
it's over
if you buy into the system and help us
and serve us during
our retirement you can have this too
and they say it without an ounce of like help us and serve us during our retirement, you can have this too.
And they say it without an ounce of like, without an ounce of like irony.
They totally believe it.
They do.
Like, yeah, I just don't really get crypto.
I don't really, I don't really see the value in it.
It's not, you know, it's not pinned to anything of real value. You would say that because your retirement account has $9 million in it. It's not pinned to anything of real value. You would say that
because your retirement account
has $9 million in it
and you haven't learned shit about
investing the whole time. You would
say that. I wish I
could say that too.
You would say that.
You would think that
too.
The cushy boomer.
The cushy boomer.
The cushy boomer, man.
Nothing better than just the cushy, overconfident,
the cushy, overconfident boomer
with a lack
of empathy
towards the situation in which they help
create.
The cushy boomer.
I love the cushy boomer.
Well, actually, I do
kind of think it might be an empathy issue,
man. It's like if they do realize, they
actually don't even care. They're like, oh, I do kind of think it might be an empathy issue, man. It's like if they do realize, they actually don't even care.
They're like, oh, I'm getting it.
But also, I don't really care.
Why would they care, bro?
They don't care.
And I wouldn't care if I was them either, to be fair.
Why would you care?
It's not their job to care.
And it's not even their fault really
um it's some of their faults you know it's it's you were like 60 years old and you were just
making like you know 700 grand a year from your like job you've been at for four decades
and you had a retirement account with like 25 million bucks in it of just like
premier like blue chip companies and you never had to sell it and you could just
pull you could just borrow against it forever and you just like owned your house outright
probably had like a sick cabin and you're just just loaded off of not really having to do why why would you care
you know why why would you care what do you mean people are struggling the economy's great yeah
oh man fuckers
honestly and now i'm now i'm forced to sit here and
pray to god that ethan bitcoin don't collapse to zero. It's my only chance.
Or I could buy Nvidia at $4 trillion, maybe hit a 2x
in 20 years.
You'll buy SpaceX
at $1.6 trillion in
market cap. And then get
rugged 95% and then
have to bag hold for a decade to get
back to break even. It's going to be
awesome, man. Don't worry.
Boomers are going to be the ones who make the most
amount of money from SpaceX.
Yep. They are.
I'm laughing,
but it's a painful
laugh. He's crying inside,
guys. He's just putting on a strong face.
Well,
maybe you can buy stuff
worth trillions today and going to sell it for quadrillions two
generations later, just like the boomers.
Yeah, that's gonna be great.
Yeah.
My dollar is literally gonna be worth absolutely nothing, but at least I'll have this quadrillion
dollar Nvidia share.
I understand that none of you, you know, you guys had free market forever and built the greatest nation in the history.
But let me share a story with you from a communist country
that was overtaken after World War II by Russia.
Communism, absolutely, crippled everything.
And you know what they did in 1953?
Inflation, there were two separate markets.
There was like the official one, and then there was the black market,
which everyone was using, right?
Like outside the prices were totally different than the official prices.
And so the official party, the ruling party, right, knew about it.
And they didn't know what to do about it.
So they did a financial reform.
And what they did was that they basically cut it to zeros.
And now they did like an exchange rate for, actually, they did like an exchange rate for
new, from like the old currency to the new.
But also what happened actually later on was that we had, I think, do you guys still use
pennies?
I have not used the pen they stopped minting yeah I mean yes I know like we have them but we
don't use them it's not getting it's getting phased out Jack is like like I
don't know about you guys but but like, there's, they stopped
minting him.
So there's like, they're becoming a big shortage.
So like businesses now, like food places and stuff where people still use cash and
stuff like that, like they have to round up or round down on the change.
They get back to you because they can't get pennies anymore.
So it's, it's currently being phased out right now i see
that's interesting well we had something like pennies too but they canceled them in i believe
like the year 2000 already and back then they still had value like you know when you went to
to buy a jesus like uh like bread or something like that you know just basic
food let's say it used to cost like 50 pennies back then and then you know
when everything became like one crown more expensive they cancel the pennies
but nowadays we are at a state where nobody uses one or two crowns anymore and so
what i think is going to happen in like a few years here in czech is that they first cancel
the pennies which was only like 10 pennies 20 pennies and 50 pennies right and then they
totally cancelled them the lowest accounting number was one crown which is like above it right so like a penny
and dollar and here it was like something else and then the crown check around and
nowadays you cannot buy anything with one crown everything's more expensive and so what i think
is going to happen is that they will sooner sooner rather than later will delete the one crown and
then the two because you cannot buy anything for two either only five will
be left and then they'll cancel five and then the lowest accounting number will
be ten crowns again just like it used to be pennies and I think it's gonna happen
in in US too they'll cancel panties completely.
They're going to cancel cash altogether.
I just hope they don't cancel panties.
Yeah, like cash phased out completely is coming, in my opinion.
I think it's time to end it here, boys.
That's it.
History lesson.
You will have your digital dollars
and you will like them.
But thank you guys for tuning in.
Wait, wait.
Read this one.
In the UK, before pennies, we had shillings.
Now we shill each other.
Yeah, introducing $10 coins.
But yeah, guys. yeah introducing ten dollar coins but um yeah guys thanks for tuning into today's episode of market check covered a ton of different topics um on this fine thursday but nevertheless we will be back
tomorrow to wrap up the week and a reminder that we do market check live throughout the week when
the new york stock exchange is open on the following days, Monday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. Our
typical start time is around 1130 to 1140 a.m. Eastern Standard Time. So we'll see you guys
tomorrow to wrap up another week. But before you wrap up your day, head on over to the Because
Bitcoin X account for a market talk hosted by the legendary King Wabi. Those
spaces have been unbelievably entertaining recently. If you've been tuning in, then you
know what I'm talking about when I say that. But yeah, we'll see you guys later this afternoon
for that show. Wrap up your day with some more great market commentary. And like I said, some great entertainment.
So Market Talk is typically live around 3.45, 3.30 p.m. Eastern Standard Time.
And it's hosted by the Because Bitcoin account Onyx.
But thank you guys for tuning in.
As always, we hope you guys have a great rest of your day, a great rest of your week. And of course, as always, thanks and stay safe
