All right, give us a few minutes while we're waiting.
Where is the event? Give me one second
Roaming one of the producers is right. Our speakers are pretty motivated today
Has it travel snafu? So I think it's stuck at the airport, but
So we'll just get started and kind of keep going. There's a lot to get through today. I
Know that we have to discuss some of the stuff that's happening in
Crypto, but I really did want to start with sort of like an overall understanding what's happening big news
Yesterday or overnight was around Pakistan and Iran
It's important from a geopolitical perspective of Pakistan
Attacked back at Iran and is now retaliating as a reminder
Pakistan is a nuclear armed country
And they are now having a conflict with another country that is very close
To being a nuclear power. This is
Out of left field and you know, I have to remind people that as inflation continues to
cause trouble chaos will ensue and so this is this is kind of what happens when inflation goes unchecked for a long time and
Pakistan, you know similar to Argentina really struggled with inflation more than other countries
So that's really part of it. But also part of it is there is this sort of Pakistan first agenda right now
They expelled over a million Afghan refugees from Pakistan back to Afghanistan
And that's causing a lot of trouble as well. And so there's a lot of regional conflict
but as this regional conflict continues to
As people have bigger badder weapons and they start having regional conflicts
We all have to worry about these stupid regional conflicts becoming much much bigger
And I think that's kind of you know
The reason why some of us are very much against the military military industrial complex because it only breeds more of this
So why don't I mention that the geopolitical tensions are rising quite strongly, you know
And it's not surprising. This is happening around the time that they are, you know, people are in Davos right now
We've seen a lot of interesting videos from Davos
The one that for some reason is circulating like crazy on
Twitter is the one from Millet, I guess it was a good speech but people are like super excited about it
Like it's as if like, you know, he is the coming
He's the second coming of Christ. I'm actually a little bit confused about why that speech was so great
but I think largely because he was talking about collectivism, which I think is an interesting topic but
Any anybody have any news that they want to start with while we're waiting for people to come into the room
My only thing is that this should be like if anyone was watching all the debates and all the presidential speeches and stuff
This should have been Haley's moment is you know, and I feel like she completely skipped
The fact that she's an ambassador. There's global chaos. This is my thing
She touched on it briefly and that was pretty much it and so I'm curious if in New Hampshire
She's going to talk on all the geopolitical
Because as you point out that leads to geopolitical inflation, so I'm really curious if she's going to
I don't know if the right right word is utilized, but I expect her to really
Take this issue by the horns and utilize it. So we'll see
The the bigger challenge for her is she's seen as a quote-unquote globalist
And so the more she talks about foreign policy
The more it becomes obvious that her views are more in line with what they are talking about it Davos than what most Americans want
That's the real issue. She's actually got a losing
Also as a reminder, she sits on the frickin she sat I'm not sure if you still sit on the book
The board of Boeing but man that does not look good
to be to be somebody who came from
Politics to bringing Boeing into your state
And your state, you know got a lot of jobs
But also Boeing came into your state got a bunch of tax advantages and tax abatements to now you going and working on Boeing's board
Guys that there's a word for that. It's called corruption
You know Haley and people know the reason why I'm gonna be tough on her is because I'm I'm kind of a pacifist
I actually don't believe that any of this helps. I'm very anti-war
But Haley literally represents the neocon wing of the Republican Party
She wants to fight in every war that she possibly can because I bet you she has some shares in Boeing that she really wants to
So that's why Justin I think there's not finance
But it is the financial incentives of these politicians is that I think it's a very losing message for her
The average Republican does not give a shit about Ukraine, which is good dad. Whatever. It's just the
The reality of the average Republican. Maybe I'm wrong Justin
You can correct me because I know you know a lot more about politics than I do
But most of them are not for the war in Ukraine a lot of them don't want to get involved in the in the Middle East
especially the younger sort of you know
Gen Xers and millennial Republicans, they really want to stay away from any issues in the Middle East
They support Israel's right to exist, of course, but they want to be careful about American boots on the ground for a foreign war
And I think Nikki Haley is seen as sort of a pro war hawk
And Justin I'll let you respond to that. I just want to make sure that I'm not like miss
I'm not a Republican as you know
I'm an independent. I actually don't even know what I am anymore. I'm politically homeless
You know, I'm assuming that that's the reason why no, I think you nailed it
I think that's what she's concerned about for sure
but I think there's still a message to be had there because you know, if you're the
That I guess my I happen and I happen to know her calm
Well her Iowa comms director and I'm just like dude
After the debate I was like dude like this was her moment like the foreign policy issue
She kind of screwed past it and he's like, I know I know
But I think there's definitely a way to say hey as the president of the United States
Like the things that happen at home are the things that happen abroad and you need to manage those things
There's no choice. But yeah, I agree. Maybe she was trying to stay away from that and she didn't get the right balance
It's hard when every word you say is analyzed
And over this whole campaign thing, I mean gosh, this sounds terrible
Um, so I I think there are a few views in the republican side as you know, I'm not a republican either
I'm not a democrat. I'm an independent
uh, and I also I think I wrote a piece in the register years ago when I had that show just
About being politically homeless or something like that similar language, which is really funny
Like they're in the republican side on the ukraine issue. There are I think three views there's one
They're the republicans that really care a lot about ukraine
And they they want to pour unlimited
Like zero cap cash into that fight
They you know, I think maybe haley would probably be on that side because on the debate
One of the debates I think that's kind of where she went. She wouldn't say a cap. I could be wrong
I think that's kind of her position
Then there there are the republicans and these two groups kind of get lumped together, which I think is sad
But there's the republicans are like we care deeply about ukraine
But also we have our own problems at home and we can't just keep sending money
There's got to be some type of limit. There's got to be a runway and there's got to be an actual strategy
The strategy can't just be keep sending money. That's not working
um, so that group is often lumped into the more extremist group that is like
We don't care about ukraine at all who gives a crap screw them because there are those republicans, too
Uh, they are at least in my experience a very very tiny tiny percentage
Most fit into the whole there needs to be a strategy. We just can't throw money at things
But they really struggle to communicate that position. Therefore, they just get lumped into the people who don't care
By the way, my my opinion on that, uh, this is a personal opinion. Obviously, uh
Is that war is like the debt ceiling it only keeps going up and that's just how it works
And so that is my my new opinion on this is like they will never stop. They will never relent
They will cause geopolitical issues. They will arm
Malicious they will arm people just so that there's more conflict because they make more money when they're in conflict
That's where I think one of I think actually ramaswami who didn't pull past eight percent in iowa
I think that's where he was actually very successful
She got really great traction in iowa
Um, so she's definitely not I mean, I talked to the uh,
Uh, president clinton senator hillary clinton's, um, pollster and strategist
yesterday two days ago for the other podcast I do
And he was saying that honestly haley is the one in the winning position here because she has more momentum coming out of iowa
And even though desantis one he's not growing his percentage
Um, but but to go just do you see the iron? Do you see the oh, yeah for sure for sure
Ramaswami was fascinating is
uh, kind of one of his winning lines was
Something about how are your raytheon shares doing or how are your friends over at raytheon doing and that really resonated
But you know, she got she did get past that and she got her momentum back, which is kind of surprising
By the way, I just put up a tweet in the nest
I was like, oh should I tweet it now that justin has made me do it. I did tweet it. Donald trump had a very clever
Uh clever post or truth or whatever the hell they call it. Uh where he put a photo of haley in a hillary
It's just so good. He's I don't know who I bet you he's involved in a lot of this
It's kind of funny. Like it's just so clever. It's very donald trump
What's crazy about that is she got the hillary comments before from desantis
Um, desantis kept saying oh, you're a hillary puppet
You're you know you whatever like I don't understand why we can't respect other candidates certain positions and not like them on other positions
I don't I don't like the whole that that kind of language. But what's really funny to me is she knew that little
Uh, she knew that attack was coming in the final debate. Um, she knew that was coming and despite it
She did her whole desantis lies.com fact checking website
Which was exactly what hillary clinton did in the donald trump debate. So like you know, this attack is coming
And she said it over and over and over again if it was a drinking game
I would have not been drunk. I would have been like dead from alcohol poisoning
It's crazy. Uh, eric your thought on this and I did I did want to get back to the geopolitics real quick
And how it's affecting the markets but eric, uh your thoughts on on the conversation
Yes, well, I agree with most of what justine said
You have to understand that nikki haley is really seen as a war hawk
And the electorate part of it significant part is getting tired of it because now there's a world war it costs a lot
Inflation is through the roof. They don't have money for the united states anymore
So they're wondering those who don't know too much, but they're wondering why exactly is all this happening? Where should we go?
A strategy is there a strategy and the reality is the biden administration has absolutely no strategy
Sorry to say but as a geopolitician
They have no intelligent strategy except trying to escalate wars to make more money off of wars
So then how they interact with the voters to try and convince them trump has the win in the sales
More than nikki haley or even desantis and now that rama swami who had a little bit of you know
Good ideas to bring to the table has endorsed trump. I see the momentum on his side
Yeah, that's what's crazy is the guy who everyone thought would start a bunch of wars and like I'd never voted for trump
I have no problem with anybody who did
But um the guy who didn't start any wars is the guy who everyone thought would start all the wars and I just
That's that's a whole other topic. Maybe one time we can talk about
Uh trump's behavior and persona and why I feel that actually helped him in
In geopolitical discourse, maybe is the right word, but that's another topic
Yeah, uh, uh, by the way, uh, the other big thing was around jamie diamond's comments now, uh reminder
That jamie diamond is a political figure. I bet you he has his own pollsters on who's gonna win the election
So it's interesting to see him turn the corner and make that comment. Everybody was celebrating it
Even I was celebrating it and then I thought about it last night
I was like, well, I wonder if jamie diamond is just trying to get on the good side of trump again
Uh, but he did put some comments out on cnbc. They asked him
Uh in the same breath that he was shitting on bitcoin and he had good comments on that
But uh, you know on the same breath that he was doing that
Uh, he also then went on and talked about
Uh, you know how many of us feel which is there's actually no reason for us to hate each other
uh, you know and to say that oh people that like trump are
Are like him in terms of their values and their morals or that they're bad people because they believe in
A guy that you know is concerning for a lot of americans
Uh, so people are fighting at the things, you know at the dinner table
He just kind of blew it all out and said look this is stupid. Like why are we doing this and
I it's interesting. It made me want to
Be a bigger, uh fan of jamie diamond. That was definitely one of his best comments. I definitely recommend
Watching that video it's incredibly well spoken now again. He is a politician. Don't let anybody
Tell you anything differently. Uh, he is a politician that makes more money than any other politician
well, maybe less than nikki haley, but um, he makes a lot of money and so
uh, you know, he's he is the
The highest paid government employee as we have called him before so I think um
Very interesting commentary seems like there's a lot of conversation around unification
The one thing he did say which was interesting is he gave trump credit for being right on a lot of things
And it's important for us to do that
You know, I think we've gotten into a culture where if you don't agree with someone
That that you automatically when they turn out to be right
Uh, they you automatically act like they weren't right
And I think he was right on a few different topics
Um, you know and so it is important to recognize that I like how jamie diamond kind of put that out there
You know, yeah when you when you recognize the accuracy of other people's positions that you don't like
People respect you more and believe your opinion more when you criticize their other opinions or them as a whole
So I I think that it is very it's much easier said than done what jamie diamond has done
or has said, excuse me, um, and
I think you know being in a setting where he's able to do it without being antagonized makes it a lot easier
Certainly, I think almost all you know
Um, you know feel that way but when we're in arguments about anything
Um, you know, we generally turn it personal
Um, I I find it in business all the time
Um, you know the biggest tell to me is when people say to me in a business argument
Oh, this isn't personal of now. It definitely is personal
Um when when you say that and so, you know, certainly we should all strive towards that because yes
Ad hominem attacks are inappropriate. I don't think it helps anyone or anything
You should always be talking about thoughts and ideas and points and not about the person
Um, but certainly, you know, i'm sure that jamie diamond has violated his own
Um, his own rules at times and nevertheless, it's something we should all strive towards and uh, you know
I agree with with your comments on what he said
Yeah, uh, it's interesting because in the same
interview people asked him about the bitcoin etf
And about whether he would recommend it
Or whether you know his advisors would recommend it to their clients and he gave it like a non-answer to be honest
I mean it was kind of a hey, I wouldn't do it for myself, but people should be free to do whatever they want
Um kind of explains why the bitcoin etf has been such a failure in terms of uh uptake from rias
Uh, the you know, the data is there people will kind of get upset at the word failure, but clearly
I I mean, I I remember people
Saying that there was going to be a quadrillion dollars that were going to flow into bitcoin
Immediately, it was going to be is going to make everybody rich
And look like I said on this show and i've said on other shows
I believe that bitcoin is going to be an asset in most people's portfolios long term
I think etfs are a good way to get there, but it's going to take time rias move slowly
Uh, they just do they're they're they're they are
You know, uh, they they won't do anything because the downside risk they're getting paid to do nothing matthew
They're getting paid to do nothing
They're literally just holding your cash putting it in a predetermined
uh set of the you know, uh
Investments and so as all of those systems get put in place
Um, and it did by the way didn't help that gensler kind of fucked the bitcoin etf. Not gonna lie. Uh, he did
Uh, he did he scared the crap out of like the tradfly industry by messing with it the day before maybe on purpose
And that will be very interesting. But yeah giant, you know again, uh
Looking now it's been what a week. I mean a week and a half. Um
I mean we're not seeing numbers skyrocket. David. We've not seen that inflow skyrocket if you're taking the ground gbtc
I think a lot of people were just looking for a way to get out of gbtc into a better
Attack situation a better situation with the etfs. Uh, do you expect I mean, I expect long term for the etfs to be successful
But uh, would you call this a success?
No, I barely any inflows, you know, I think it's interesting. I wonder
Uh, you know from the etf issuers standpoint, um, you know how much
Versus efforts and resources put into the approval process
um, and not only the approval process but but but all that that includes inclusive of
The technicals of the listing and so on and so forth
But certainly the concerning consternation around the scc and gary kensler and is he won't he will he so on and so forth
Robbery, uh, and then false, uh, you know, uh statement of the approval, uh day before the actual approval
I think is is is not far enough back in the rearview mirror
But you know a close friend of mine is an independent ria with a considerable amount of assets under management
He does invest on behalf of his clients in lots of alternatives and he said to me
He does not have any clients asking about crypto
The types of clients not only rias have but i'd say generally right most people in the world. I would say
A very large portion eighty percent are returns chasers
Um, and so, you know until now i'd say bitcoin has generally been
So unless you were for some, you know crazy reason
Um, you know an early or an early investor, you know, particularly interested in technology so on
It hasn't been on most investors minds, especially because of all the you know, ad press
Uh rug pulls frauds so on and so forth
And so people essentially had taken it off their radar screen the etf approval process certainly didn't bring it back
And so now we're going to need a period of time where
And I can't I can't say for certain that it's going to be a resounding success inside of the next three months six months
nine or twelve or twenty four months in terms of the etf
But there's going to need to be something and then that's why the you know, I think the asset class is more than just speculation
Um, you know, I think that they like we we've spoken about on other spaces
You know the amount of capital
Uh that is coming back to
More venture related activity in the blockchain and the cryptocurrency space is considerable right now
Um, and so therefore there will be breakthroughs will they happen overnight? I don't know
Um, but certainly they will happen over time and I think at some point
You know it is going to be you know, bitcoin and crypto are going to catch headlines once again
Returns will start to look, you know considerable once again relative to the rest of it and at that point in time
You know the investing community will then again do what it
does which is chase returns and then we will see
You know the wave come in that's my expectation for things at least at this point
I don't believe you know that it's just going to come out of nowhere that all of a sudden
The quadrillion is going to be dropped into this, you know on on any given monday
So so that's that's that's where i'm at on it and that's okay. I mean for people that again are are you know
in this for the long term
Just presents buying opportunity. I mean this this um event has removed a ton of risk
From the asset class or at least from the asset of bitcoin
You know, we could argue about the asset class generally of cryptocurrency
Um, but it's removed a bunch of risk in terms of staying power in terms of legitimacy in terms of regulatory legal
You know tax, you know, we now have companies that are able to go ahead and
Their investment in cryptocurrencies are in their you know portfolios in their treasury holdings, right not to say tomorrow
You're going to find corporations going ahead and barreling into cryptocurrency because they can now market to market
As opposed to what it used to be which was a screwed up, you know accounting rule where you could you know
You could only mark it down, but you could never mark it up
Um, and so, you know again, I I think it's it's part of the maturation process
I'm clearly a believer, you know long term and so therefore, you know
Come what may you know, I think that this was this was a good event
Uh, but yeah, I mean if we go into a period of a lull here
Certainly until the having by the way the having is a real deal in terms of an event that's going to happen
Whether it's going to be a positive or negative or a nothing burger. I can't tell you based on history
It's going to be positive. But certainly bitcoin will be
Put into the narrative overall very much
Uh forcefully, you know come march and so, you know people could go ahead and anticipate that as well
Certainly, you know people will trade around that as well
Um, you know buyer beware, uh, but hopefully, you know, that could be a good catalyst as well
Sorry me about an issue. Did anybody else have a comment around the ctf before we move on?
You know, it's interesting everybody was talking etf for a long time and then i'm just scared of them obviously
You're just scared of what i'm scared. I'm scared of the i'm still scared of crypto and yeah, anyway, that's
No, that's fair. I think and that and that's a good person. Exactly. You probably should be
Because there's a lot of there's a lot of grifters, you know, there's obviously very serious people in the space
But there's a lot of grifting in the space. Well, I I think that's been so i've said i'll expand on that a little bit
That's probably too short. But um, i'll shortly expand on that just so danish doesn't get scared about my reply. Um
I've always thought like all it takes it, you know cryptocurrency seems to
Scare politicians for obvious reasons. They want to be able to control currency
Um, and all it takes is a g7 g6 meeting for them to say we don't like this anymore
And then it's relegated to like an online gaming credit system where you like buy points and you can exchange it for digital goods
But that really keeps it from ever hitting scale
That's always been my fear from day one is it just takes one meeting and poof it's gone
But justin that that that train is increasingly increasingly leaving has left the station
That that's my feeling in other words
Yes, I i've heard that we've heard that argument for a long time now
And you know as as time rolls on
As you know, we've seen momentum. I I think
We're at a you know, a point of no return on that point. I I don't think it's possible at this point
No, no matter how bad the use case may be how nefarious the activity is
And which it isn't right. It's overplayed. I mean from a substantive standpoint in terms of numbers and so on
But even from a headline perspective and a shock value and a reputational risk perspective
Even if that were to happen
We're still at this point. The s class is so far beyond
That narrative that it can't knock it off the rails. At least that's my that's my firm feeling
100 I'm in this weird camp where like i'm conflicted with um what I like and things I think are a good idea
So if I didn't if I if I didn't know how governments historically have acted acted to control things
I don't like the fact that governments can control and essentially manipulate their currency. I don't like the fact that they can
Essentially control the stock market based on their whims and how they feel today, right?
I hate that stuff and I do agree that digital currency that's outside of a government control
It has some decentralization is a really really good solution
However, like I just said that would be my general fear. So i'm I kind of have it's definitely, you know
It's something sadly. It's something I like and I think should grow but it's also something I fear
I guess, you know, no different than like
Legalizing marijuana. I also think that should be
For for years, I thought that should be 100 legal everywhere, but I know how governments are right?
And so that's that's kind of my view on it. I think it's a great thing
uh, it's definitely it's it's
It's like a capitalistic solution to capitalism, right? All these good things that i've heard agree agree agree
But yeah, my concern is just the fact that governments sometimes don't like it and they're just like yep
Nope, we're done. That that would be my fear. I do agree that the train seems to be like looking like it's leaving the station but
People have regulated government and regulated much bigger
Can you hear me? Okay. Yeah, we can you're a little bit choppy just as a heads up
Okay, uh, so so so the most important asset manager in the world
Cara Larry to Jamie Dimon on the banking side
That bitcoin is and scary point taken is bigger than any government
And certainly is for that reason a good thing in the world now, you may not agree with that
I may not agree with that right because of what we're so used to traditionally
But now that larry fink is on the saw on the on that side of that argument
Again, I don't I believe that train has left the station and there's no going back on that
There is nothing any government can do at this point
But embrace but embrace bitcoin it can remain neutralized the bitcoin
But the only active step is to embrace bitcoin shutting it down is no longer an option
David if that was the case bitcoin will be 100k, which is not
Right. I'm just I'm sorry. I have to keep pushing back. I said this before too, which is there's something else about this situation
We're not even at all time highs right now
Like if you really believe that that this is the case we would have seen a significant increase post etf
We would have seen continued in close
Not at all because at the end of the day the predominant opinion out there amongst people
That are smart and have money is justins
It is right. This is a tectonic shift
It's it's it's a paradigm shift in the way we think about the transfer that the recording of assets
And the transfer of assets with no governmental intermediary
It's it's it's it's big and it's gonna it's gonna take a lot of time
You know to get to that point. Um
And again, I clearly i'm okay with that
Um, but I I think the train has left the station. There's no way you could put this genie back in the bottle at this point
The only time will tell because remember
That trump was no friend of bitcoins either. So it's kind of interesting if he is likely the nominee
Uh, you you will have multiple administrations that have been
resistant to bitcoin and to
Cryptocurrencies in general, so it's quite interesting to see where things shake out. Um, I mean maybe this is the maybe this is isn't quite directly applicable
But I kind of thought that the as far as like ai doing whatever the heck it wanted
You couldn't put that genie back in the bottle
And maybe this is just a blip, but i'm starting i'm starting to see chat gpt return
Uh when I ask it for prompts it basically says back
Do it yourself or I can't do that because I can't go to this website because of terms of use or something
Well, maybe maybe regulators and maybe all these private companies are putting that genie back in the bottle and i'm kind of worried
I'm worried at least in that case i'm worried if we're going to push it backwards
But that's I mean, it's kind of a different topic. I will say that unless you have
Chat the the premium version you're using 3.5 and 3.5 tends to do that quite a lot
No, i'm using the i'm using 4 4.5 or whatever their up time i'm paying for it
And it's still I use it every single day and I haven't gotten that maybe I can help you with some prompting help here
But yeah, I use it literally like when I say every day I use it every single day and it's uh
It doesn't give me that I think it is the way that you prompt it
And I actually even build my own gpt which I will not give people access to
And so what I was going to say is, you know, uh, I wanted to move on away from crypto because that that is a deep dark
Grifty hole, uh, we're going to stay away from that. Uh, just kidding. Uh, and we're going to move on to more important things, you know before
Everybody got in here. I did mention another conflict, uh around the world
Just like as many know we were talking about the red sea conflict way before others were
We were very concerned about it and then it continued to escalate and we saw
Inflationary pressures come in I put in some some tweets if you guys uh go to my account you'll see
You know around what's happening with container prices what happened with the baltic index what's happening overall for inflation?
That is a very pro inflationary situation
And it is not yet resolved when you have the us government come out and say we really don't want a conflict with the hooties
Did you guys see that the biden administration came out and said we really don't want a conflict
With the hooties. Are we fucking kidding?
Like is this where we are now like where we're asking them to be nice. We're asking pirates to be nice to us
Uh, anyways, that was pretty embarrassing. I will say it's because it's hard to fight
Go ahead get it. Yeah. No, no, I just I want to push back on you on that because of the fact that you know
Whenever we talk about war and conflict, um, and this is a serious point and I understand your point in terms of how
Not ironic how sad it is right to go ahead and and and essentially make that statement that way
But the truth of the matter is is the american public in no way shape or form wants to see any sort of
You know, uh armed conflict that the us is directly engaged in
That may even remotely lead to boots on the ground anywhere in this world
Um, and so therefore I think you agree
Essentially with this sentiment the message may have been said in a comical way in a sad way
Um, but at the end of the day, that's the truth of the matter this government is going to avoid armed conflict at any cost
Um, you know so not acceptable, you know by the american public
I mean to be fair we're involved in two right now
right, uh, and and uh, I don't think that the average almost three almost three, uh, the average american
Uh is is not in favor of most
International conflicts, especially with what's going on
Uh at the southern border interestingly biden did come out and talk a lot about the southern border this week and immigration reform
So happy to see that that's actually now becoming a bipartisan issue
But on that on that point, this is um, kind of what I was alluding to earlier that but now that you're going into it
Maybe this is a good opportunity
Shockingly that trump. I don't know if it was just because of his personality or if he knew what he was doing
But I think that's one area that trump really excelled at
Is we often think that the best negotiation tactic is an american negotiation tactic
Which is be kind and ask nicely first
But culturally around the world not everyone shares american values people think differently some people are more like
You know, they respect you if you say i'm gonna crush your skull
They're like, oh wow that guy's serious. I you know, that that's kind of more respected around the world not here
So I feel like um, that's something trump understood now
I don't know what the long-term negative effects of that but when he goes to
North korea and tells kim jong-un
You know, I have a bigger nuke button than you do and i'll wipe you off the face of the planet
It seems like that gained respect and I don't know if he and then you know
They have this bizarre friendship and I maybe he said
There's some leaked audio where he said the same thing to putin like hey, if you go after ukraine
Or we'll just uh, we'll hit moscow
Deal with it. And I think that in some way, I don't understand, uh different cultures as well as maybe I should I don't understand but
That there's a different version of negotiation that for whatever reason trump understood and many of our american politicians don't
Which is forced equals respect
So anyway, well the the other side of it though
The reason why we may be in the position that we are
Is also because they saw the relationships that we have with our allies becoming weaker
And I think that that was the the double-sided coin, right? Like the other side of the yeah good call
He did make us seem weaker, uh in the world because we didn't have
Uh strong relationships, uh with our allies, but I wanted to uh, paul before I just want to make sure that we we
Mentioned about this new conflict. I mentioned about the Houthis
But I really want to talk about this conflict before we move on paul unless it's related to this Pakistan Iran conflict
Uh, did you ever keep going?
So the reason why this conflict is really big is because
Pakistan exports a lot of food products to the united states and to europe
And iran is actually the the financier of issues around the world
But also is a giant producer of oil
We have to take into account what the impact of this will be iran is not a
The you know not officially a nuclear power, but it might as well be and pakistan currently has access to nuclear weapons
This issue has been a tit for tat
But it has the the risk of getting escalated and I expect this fully to affect commodity prices around the world
I I want to to mention this just as a heads up on how much
Because iran carried airstrikes inside pakistan territory on tuesday
So on thursday pakistan carried out airstrikes, uh inside, uh, you know this morning
Pakistan carried out airstrikes inside iranian territory
Uh, this is a very complex issue
It has to do with sunnisha politics. Uh, if people are familiar with islamic sectarian politics
it has to do with it's really a
A long-term frenemy situation the current administration not iran con in the last administration
But this administration is incredibly resistant
to influence from iran iran actually
terrorist groups inside pakistan
And that has really rubbed the pakistani administration in the wrong way
iran has tried to destabilize pakistan before this is like a very very big
I'm I'm just putting my hand up and I know that part of the world pretty well
I'm putting my hand up and i'm letting you guys know that just like we were talking about with the red sea
This issue has the potential to get escalated
if we start seeing regional
uh issues remember iran currently is is embroiled in a
uh in a conflict, uh through pop proxies with hamas and hezbollah
Uh, and uh, you know there this could have the
I mean i'm gonna say the words, but this could have the ci's prints all over it in pakistan again. Pakistan is now
The the current administration of pakistan is very pro-usa
Is very much embedded with usa as compared to iran khan who was very pro-russia china in iran
So this is a very complex situation
pakistan could be the proxy
For america's activity in iran
Uh, i'm putting my hand up and saying guys, this is getting escalated
Uh, and so just wanted to make sure that people are aware of it
And the the impact on commodities and the impact on oil will be significant in my opinion again
If if we can see this to remain a regional conflict, that's great
I I would be very very happy if this did not escalate because to date to be clear and i'll go to david to date
It's just been tit for tat, right?
They did airstrikes pakistan did airstrikes, but that part of the world
Has a tendency to escalate very quickly
And so I just wanted to bring that up and I know we have some people that do emerging markets here
But wanted to see what they could what they would be concerned about with this david your thoughts
Yeah, so so um, it's a powder keg. Um, certainly as you pointed out. I I just I was I was in israel last week. Um
To go back to a point. Justin was making
Um, I think it's less about uh cultural issues. It's more about the personality of leadership issues
Um, you know in the middle east
Um in terms of you know showing strength and things like that. I think the the united states has generally
Um at least over recent years
Taken a different tact when it comes to
Um flexing muscles and showing power and essentially
Um, you know browbeating and and instilling fear
Um, you know in our adversaries
And a lot of you know, if you have a population
Uh in that area of the world that is really you know
It's sub poverty level in some of those nations where your you know, your your population has as
Almost nothing to live for at times. Uh, you're dealing with
You know an alternate reality, right?
They're willing to go ahead and support and go for and frankly if religion is the driver
Right and remember that also, right? We don't you know
Our conflicts in the united states generally have very little to do with religious beliefs
In that part of the world. It has a lot to do with religious beliefs that then spill into
Lots of other areas, but that's where you know, the spark starts
You're dealing with things to donish's point that can get out of control
Incredibly quickly and right now we've got a lot of
You know i'd say skirmishes maybe is the right word. I don't know going on
Which if you tie them together can be tied together very quickly, you know to go into
Something, you know much scarier not to say that we're gonna get there
Hopefully really we won't it doesn't benefit anybody and certainly the loss of life would be awful
But certainly it is worthwhile, you know keeping an eye on with respect to donish your point about
Um, you know certainly oil has been very calm
Throughout everything that has happened
You know to continue to watch closely
Um, if we think we're still in a global kind of slowing down of things because of rates being so high worldwide
And generally slow downs in an otherwise hot economy with high inflation around the world
Um, you know, maybe that's been able to go ahead and keep oil in check
Um, but you know who knows how you know how much this can cycle out of control
And lead to a spike, um, you know in oil prices amongst other commodities
Well, to be fair oil also is building a very strong base in the low 70s. I mean we're seeing
You know, we saw a significant drop from the 90s and now it has made a very strong base
Just from like a technical perspective. I don't know if anybody else's
David nakosky or david settle. Yeah, david settle. I would love your thoughts on
Oil, it seems like it's building a pretty strong base even considering
Uh talks of a global slowdown
Uh, it seems like oil has been resilient
Right, right and you know with the with the slowing in china, right, which is a huge consumer of commodities when their economy is expanding
Um and with the dollar breaking out, right the dollar breaking back out to the upside
uh here in the last couple of days, uh breaking above like some key moving averages and
Um, you haven't had a response
Of crude breaking below that 70 so I you know
I had a discussion on another podcast with this yesterday that you know
As great as it is that crude has been down. It's not breaking
Like if you have to if I had to ask you like from 70 here
Is it more likely to hit 50 or is it more likely to hit 90?
Um, you know, the expectation is it's probably more likely to hit 90 unless we go into significant economic
Like slowdown here for us to be able to break this big base that we're having
Yeah, I I think the strong dollar is holding it back
But you know the u.s has produced more oil than it ever has so
You know, I think that the aspect of how it follows the dollar is kind of losing that correlation
Um, you know 68 seems like a nice floor for it somewhere in there 67 68
But you know on that short-term pattern, you know
What I see is a symmetrical triangle and it's amazing to me that we don't have a war premium whatsoever
In fact, we have a war discount
Um to you know, what what I think it should be if you know, there's global demand
You know, the biggest problem is you got the dollar, you know breaking out and putting pressure on emerging markets
You know significant pressure
It's amazing to me that you know
The the u.s is the loan ship on the ocean and the other ones have all sank
You know that it's just not something I would have expected
But yes, the u.s economy is the brightest in the world
You know, the problem is is you have a number of investors that gravitate to the u.s
Just because of our outperformance, you know
Outperformance always gets chased, you know through every
You know interesting, you know back in 2002
Um, april of 2002. I think it was april 12th, you know
Our group made a call that there was going to be repatriation of funds by foreigners
And that's when the u.s dollar broke that long-term uptrend
Um stayed strong throughout the 99, you know, 2000 meltdown up until 2002
Uh, and when the dollar came down that's you know cycled in, you know, a dramatic
move in commodities that you know again was the build out of china, um
But you know if you look at the s&p during that time period, you know
There were there was three triple bottoms one. I believe it was may of 2002
Rallied for a few months came back touched the lows came back again touched the lows and that was a triple bottom
You know, I I would expect that you know, if the dollar were to weaken it could you know, it certainly
Uh pull investors out of the market, you know
I from what i've read in wall street journal has covered this is you know
Everyone in korea is owning the sock sell like that's you know, I discussed that, you know the other day when I was on here
Um, you know when you have that many people
Investing in the u.s markets, you know, if you do have a turn in the currency, you know
That that can be an unloading whereas most of us would believe that you know a decline in the dollar would be
Helpful to the u.s. It would be you know, it's it's all about the rate of change
And you know the the severity of that april 12th of 2002 drop
Um was was pretty significant in in how fast the u.s
Dollar melted down. So that's something i'm watching closely. Um, but I would agree on the the oil front, you know
67 68 seems like ideal. I want to see it break out of that symmetrical triangle that it's currently forming to the upside
Um, you know to to indicate to clients whether or not we're we're going to break out of this
Uh current pattern that we're in
So so david until it does that you think it's going to continue to range
Yeah, I you know, there's so many breakdowns technically in a lot of the stocks. I I just put out, you know
A negative trending report that went out to my clients today, you know, everything from schlumber jay to exon, you know
They're coming through those supports unless they can rally back through them
Um, I I just see no reason to you know
Short them. I don't see any reason to go long them. We're market neutral on them, but it's such a small sector
You know, you're not going to grab a lot of elf out of
Energy, you know, you don't want to underweight it and you don't need to overweight it, you know
It's it's four percent of the market even if it came back ten percent. It's it's not that big of a deal
In the context of where sector weightings are, you know
The biggest weighting and it's a concern of mine, but you know, it's a concern when it changes and that's you know, tech and communications
Uh, you know are roughly about 45 percent of the market cap, you know
Historically when you get, you know a sector above 30 percent, you know
We throw out terms like bubble and you know
You never want to throw out a term like bubble until it's collapsing or until it's coming back
Um, and and I I say that because you know if you look in 90, you know, december of 99 or
Up until march of 2000 if you're calling bubble, you know, you lost a lot of alpha and
You know, I I don't like the fact that everyone's, you know buying the same things
Um, they they don't have a tendency historically to end very well
But again, you know calling a bubble right now is the wrong thing to do. It it truly is timing
Um, I was you know during that period in the market
My father called the very top in the nasdaq and you know, most people don't know what precipitated that and that was tony blair
And um bill clinton sitting on a podium in london human genome sciences was about three months away from decoding the human genome
Um, you know tony blair and bill clinton said on the podium that all of that information should be shared
with every health care company, um, and there was you know billions of dollars spent to do that and
You know, that was the peak in biotechs and you know, we put out and at that time you were running off of a fax machine
And you know, we could only hold, you know 99 numbers in a fax machine and we were faxing our clients because you didn't have email
Believe it or not in march of 2000
Um, you know in the same manner that we have email today
We you know, we had to fire up the fax machine four times to to email something like 360 clients
And you know our call was if it can happen to biotech it can happen to tech and that was you know the day of the top
Um, so, you know things can unwind quickly
And again, you know the difference between today and tech and tech back then
Was that a lot of those companies just added dotcom to their name and ran up a thousand percent?
You know, it's it's like what you see David. David. That's what they're doing with ai now just exactly exactly
It's the same playbook and again, you know
You don't want to be early because you're going to lose a lot of alpha and you're going to make yourself look like an idiot
You know, there's going to have to be something that
Precipitates it and i'm i'm my belief is that you know, it's going to be government
Um regulation of some sort
Uh that limits how ai can be used because of the dangers of it, you know
Uh, what is several months ago, you know, someone posted a ai generated picture of the pentagon being bombed
I think the the market declined almost, you know, something like 500 billion dollars on that, you know
That was a and it was quickly pulled and you know, no one talked about it again
But you know, I think there's dangers to ai
Uh, you had posted yesterday about you know, ai and I said, well, let's see if ai can take your appendix out
Because I really want to watch that
So, you know, there's there's that might be sooner than you think actually but yes
Uh, you know that that one is actually a little bit anyways, uh, that one might be easier than
Uh ai actually doing it, you know being involved in more, um
Deeper conversation. I think there's a lot of hallucination. But yes, if it's just like a task, I think it could do it
But we'll see. I I do agree with you in some that was a uh, what
David is referring to is that there's a new model from google called amy amie. I posted about it in my
and uh on my account and uh
They said amy beats doctors
Diagnostics, uh, and what they were referring to is that based on only one thing which is chat
Amy is better than doctors at guessing what you what's wrong with you then?
Uh, but only if you're using chat alone, so it's better at being a chat pod
That's pretty much what they were saying and that was my point and I think david was saying yeah
Let's see what they take out an appendix
You only have one modality which by the way as a doctor if i'm worried about a patient
I can just like pick up the phone and call them or have them come into a clinic
I'm not limited to one modality, which is the funniest thing. I don't know who wrote that study, but
You know people on twitter were like ai is gonna kill doctors and you know kill the healthcare industry
It's like yeah, maybe in like 15 years possibly one when everybody's on glp ones, uh, you know when there's only one treatment for everything
Uh, maybe uh, but you know wanted to talking about healthcare and tech
something really weird happened
Something really weird happened
Today it was just announced that general catalyst
Has acquired a hospital in acron, ohio
General catalyst is a large vc fund not pe
Their venture capital fund, which means that they make short term
They make long-term bets, but on a 10-year horizon
Essentially general catalyst has invested in so many healthcare startups
That couldn't sell to hospitals that they said, you know
What we're just gonna buy a hospital so that at least we get our first user for all these really exciting technologies
That is the word on the street
But I will say that this is the weirdest thing that i've ever seen
And it's bold I guess but it's also kind of weird to hospital margins for people that are and by the way
It was a non-profit hospital that is being sold to our venture capital firm and will now be converted into a for-profit hospital
Um, i'm not sure how people feel about this. It's getting the rounds on twitter
Uh, you know a lot of doctors are like, oh, this is great venture capital is now buying hospitals
Uh, that doesn't sound like a good idea
Uh, but you know other people are saying well, at least we're gonna get some
Innovation in the hospital space it's funny because of all the things that they could have done to disrupt health care
They bought the one thing in health care. There is incredibly archaic, which is hospitals
So it's kind of funny that that's the best that they could think interestingly for people that are familiar with health care
The ceo of this hospital is actually going to be the former ceo of inner mountain health care
And if people know that is a very forward thinking health care system. So, uh, so, you know, this is
A pretty big play and it's very health care specific. I don't know if you all have any questions about that
Um deal, this is the first time that a venture capital firm has actually bought a hospital
It's not what you would expect
I think there's a lot of legal and ethical questions around this
Um, I think there's a lot of conflict of interest questions around this. I mean, uh, can you imagine?
If you're a company that sells to hospitals and you get backed by this company
uh back there by this firm
Are you really, uh at product market fit or is it just that they invest in you and so they can pump your?
Sales right bump pump your revenue. It is quite interesting and who's paying for that?
Uh, you know if they're serving medicare patients if they're serving health care exchange patients if they're serving medicaid patients
Technically you're paying for it
Uh, and by the way like 70 of health care is government paid, right?
If you take into account medicare medicaid government being both federal and state in that situation
But medicare medicaid health exchange that's like 70 of people
So i'm just saying like do you really want your tax dollars going into vc coffers?
It's a question to ask. I think it's a it's a very and by the way
They would also, uh, this has to go through regulatory approval still because some are health su mma health
I don't know if any of you are from ohio
But some are health is is one of the largest health systems in the area in akron
Um, and so this is definitely doing the rounds. I don't know i'd love to get people's like
initials feelings about this, um, actually, uh
Uh, Chris, uh happy to have you up. I don't know if you can hear me yet, but um
Chris your initial thoughts about general catalysts buying a hospital
Do you think vc should own hospitals
Chris uh, you gotta unmute
Hey, i'm, sorry the connection I think was was bad. Um, I have not heard about this and I think it's fascinating
The part that that uh kicked my interest the most is where you said
are you actually uh hitting product market fit or are they just
Buying your product because they have to
I actually think that that's sort of an interesting you can create momentum, you know, like the heart one of the hardest parts of getting
into uh companies is just like the first couple sales
And I can imagine and I don't have a lot of experiences your world donish but in the um
In the medical world. I could imagine there's there's a lot of
Challenge with getting your first your first clients because everybody's a little bit worried
Uh, they don't want to be the guinea pig in something. That's that's for medical health
So I I don't know. I think it's kind of an interesting and novel idea
Also, if you think about there's been a pattern around vertically integrating
For vc like look at a 16z and what they've done
Um during covid, uh, and what we're talking on right now is really a derivative of what was clubhouse
And they did a huge investment huge bet on that because they really wanted to become a media company
so this is something you're you're seeing with big vc is is is going deeper and and more vertically, uh integrated for
Um for industries. It's it is it is interesting
Interest I mean I will what I will say is I think
I would have no problems if this was a cash pay health care system
My biggest concern is that it is a government sponsored health care system and it was a non-profit health care system
That was getting tax exemption
And by the way had 340 b plans around pharmacy
Which means that when they were selling pharmacy
They were getting it for cheap and selling it for more and keeping the quote unquote profits
They have all of these advantages from the government
And now they were able to turn around and sell it and the executives made millions of dollars
Converting a non-profit health care system to a for-profit health care system on the backs of american taxpayers
This is the problem. You're you're totally right. I'm not I wasn't even touching that
I was just thinking from a strategic standpoint as the as the vcs and the and the startups
But you're a hundred percent, right?
I mean I I wouldn't disagree
For a second if I was the government if I was the rest of society
I would look at this and be like this is sketchy and this this doesn't sound okay
I was I was saying from the other perspective, but I completely agree with you danish. Absolutely
Yeah, uh, and and yeah, I guess from a vc perspective talk about being value add
If you take our money, we will automatically put you get you a customer in a hospital by the way
Corporate vcs have been doing that for a while
But instead of you know in health systems now have their own vc arms
Uh, but it's really interesting that they are
Actually buying and will be operating a full-on hospital
It's a little bit different than corporate vc where they do try to keep church and state separate
The venture capital arm and the hospital arm tend to stay separate here. They're like no screw it. We're gonna be all one thing
Yeah, no, I just have two thoughts again. I'm not a uh, a health care
Expert like you are. Um, is this very different?
for profit higher education
Issued loans for students to go ahead and attend these universities a lot of them online
Um, essentially, I don't know if you would have asked a group of 10 probably eight or more
Would have said the likelihood of folks coming out of these programs
Uh getting a job to be able to service their debt, which effectively is backstopped by the u.s. Taxpayer
Is going to be unlikely and then lo and behold, you know the folks in the middle, uh that own those for-profit universities
Essentially run away with the bag of cash
Uh, it's a it's a win-win for them
There's no way that they lose in those situations because of the government and the taxpayer backstop
Um, that's one question and then the second question is you know, I just want to bring the the the point full circle
Remember, you know a lot of these vc
Funds who are doing these types of activities
endowments foundations and pension funds themselves
And so, you know being on it has always struck me
Especially when you know, it doesn't happen a lot in the vc world, but certainly in the hedge fund world when
A hedge fund is an activist in a situation
And its biggest adversary, uh is unionized labor
Right, um that and and maybe unionized labor, you know either privately
Um, so let's take an example, you know, you could be I don't know the j and j
You know union johnson and johnson, but at the same time, you know
That private equity fund may very well have money from the johnson and johnson pension fund
For whom those unions rely upon for their pension. I just believe you know
People don't always connect the dots in a lot of these situations and it's just ironic that on the one hand
You know, you've got the direct conflict with those people
But at the same time the financial fortune or the financial future of those people is partly dependent on the other side
Of the argument, which is just incredibly incredibly ironic. You can only have that in the united states
I don't think anywhere else in the world that would fly
So, you know, those are the two points i'd make that by the way that almost happened here in chicago
Uh a couple months ago. There's a huge building development, uh commercial property development on the near north side called lincoln yards
That is is really hit some hard times with the the interest rates and with what's happened post-covid with commercial, etc
And they went to pitch the chicago teacher students pension fund
Which was just like the craziest most ironic and they they couldn't hate each other more
And and i'm surprised it even got to the point where they actually
Like really took a look at it and did diligence. They ended up passing but same kind of it's just sort of like it's crazy
How it not in, you know different industry, but really like watching that firsthand here
I was laughing and crying and sort of confused all at once. Yeah, but but you also understand
I mean just to state the obvious i'm sure you understand that the folks in the in the in the pension fund investment office
Very often their job is not to go ahead and get involved in the policies
That the pension necessarily if you're in a smaller foundation an endowment maybe but not to get involved in the policies of the
You know members of the pension, you know overall they're supposed to totally investment decisions
And so, you know, ironically, it may have been a good investment decision
Regardless of the fact that it flew in the face of everything, you know that the pension fund stands for
Agreed, um wanted to david. I know you had one topic that you wanted to discuss. Yeah
Yeah, so on on chris's on chris's point of covet
Now I want them to go ahead. We we often talk a lot about macro
Stuff on on the show, but it's always you know important to keep
Keep focused also on i'd say, you know more micro trends
And I you know, I I follow, you know, my background distressed bankruptcy so on
And we're seeing an uptick
Around a bunch of consumer related david. David i'm so sorry to to interrupt
But we did just get the jobless claims data like a few minutes ago. It's go for it. It's it's crazy. Um
weekly jobless claims post lowest reading since september 2022
Ooh, okay. All right initial filings for unemployment insurance totaled
187 000 total for continuing claims 1.8
Uh eight one point eight zero six million way below
The estimate of one point eight three billion. So not only did we get?
You know initial jobless claims at one hundred and eighty seven thousand versus two hundred and eight thousand expected
We got continuing jobless claims at one point eight million versus one point eight three million the market
Is gonna be interesting. I guess
Can we now finally say the banisher was right that rate cuts are not gonna happen in march
Is anybody here thinking that we're gonna get rate cuts in march now still?
Can I yeah, so I mean it's okay if i'm wrong i've been wrong. I was wrong about the etf
But can we can we all just say that the rate cuts are out now?
We we basically could say I mean i'm i'm agreeing with you. I'm just gonna give the other side of this
We can all agree until the next inflation print
Which will show that inflation is decelerating at an incredibly quick pace and the economy is slowing down
And so therefore, you know, those rate cut bulls are going to get pulled up again, uh at that data point
I think we keep oscillating between and and you know, clearly we're at two ends of the spectrum in terms of
Unemployment on the one hand and inflation on the other hand. The question is is which way does the fed go?
By the way ten year just is up to four point one one three at least based on my recent reading, but it might be
Fluctuating quite significantly on this news. So we're 10 years now back above four, but you know above four point one
So, uh kind of interesting. Sorry, I know we were talking about a different topic david
But I had to bring in the beat. I mean this is
For people that are not aware. This is a pretty
Sizable beat now. I will say it makes the administration look good
But it makes the fed's job look bad
Uh fed's fed's job of beating inflation is again
David if they end up showing that inflation is quote unquote down again
Uh, but i'm doing quotes air quotes right now down again
By messing with things like health insurance and uh, and other numbers
I i'm gonna lie and oer is like a great place to do it. But yeah, paul go ahead
Yeah, danish the one thing that I mean you look at you think of the cause of inflation or the reason for the inflation
And then you think about government spending
And government spending does government spending change when rates go up like
As a consumer you think okay
Well, if rates go up I may have to change my behavior my interest rates and my credit cards and my car loan or my house
If you if you're gonna buy a house things like that
Your your spending habit has to change based on the amount of you know
You know available cash that you have in front of you that uh, you know your weekly salary, etc
But the government doesn't change their spending habits based on interest rates. They haven't
You know in any kind of reasonable time frame in recent memory
So you just kind of look at that like they're not they're not changing and and that's kind of like a big source
Of inflation is government spending
You know we have the one limit on it is
Like you just mentioned 10 year interest rates and the ability to
Pay the debt on those rates but also attract interest in those in in in that debt
But I just think that like
As long as the government the government creates the government creates inflation
Through its own, you know through money printing
But just through it's it's printing money to spend and we we don't see an end to that
And so I don't think like I don't know if I agree with you on the the inflation
You know your double top, uh, like 1970s retro kind of graph that you show a lot like there's different reasons for why it could happen
But you know a big reason is just government spending is not stopping and you kind of see that coming down the line
I mean, you know, there is no debt ceiling anymore. You mentioned the debt ceiling before there is no debt ceiling right now until I think
2025 so we can spend as much as we want
Nothing's gonna put a hold on it
I mean and as we continue to see
The as I was saying, you know
I just want to remind people that people are coming up here and saying
That we would see the job market like tear apart and I was like guys this job market
I'm seeing it because I work with employers
Yes tech people. I'm sorry
If you're a software developer, you're not gonna make half a million dollars anymore
Those days are gonna go away
Google is gonna do more layoffs
May do layoffs, but google is gonna do more layoffs
We're gonna see layoffs across all of these different tech companies
You're gonna see this happen in the tech industry the tech industry overhired in the pandemic and they're going to we're gonna see that go away
Low profit companies are sort of screwed right like you got to get to profitability
You know, we're gonna see that happen. So just because you see it all over twitter that people are losing their jobs
Or on linkedin because you're in the tech industry. That doesn't mean that's the reality for everybody else
You know, we're seeing this across government organizations are hiring faster than ever
Uh local service organizations are hiring faster than ever people because they have jobs are spending a ton of money
So manufacturers are hiring more than ever we're seeing hiring happen across all these industries
So i'm seeing it. We have customers hundreds of customers from my company
I'm telling you we're seeing it on the ground that people are hiring
So that's why i'm just like how are we going to see the job markets often?
and I know biden's going to come out and say
You know, what would be really bad for biden is if we started seeing reacceleration of inflation right before the election which would be
Uh, which would be kind of ironic and awful. I actually think but there's a higher likelihood
Like i've said before that i'm more worried about 2025
Than I am about 2024. I think 2025 is a scary year if we don't get inflation under control. Do any of your thoughts?
Well, yeah, I was just kind of a comment that you know
We are seeing well, I guess it was echoing some of your comments
In terms of the consumer as well as as well as employment
We are seeing some numbers drop off in terms of employment by just in certain sectors
So if you know if the fed was looking at putting the squeeze on demand by just on keeping rates higher for longer than you know
You know, they're going to be very disappointed for this year
Um and with consumers, I believe we touched on this point before but with consumers
We're only really seeing a lot of weakness in certain
Certain areas like certain courts. So obviously people
Who you know don't you know who don't currently have a lot of disposable income and then also millennials as well
So, you know people are still using a lot of credit ramping up their credit cards
So, you know moving in, you know moving forward through this year. We may see, you know, a
A scenario here where we do see the rate of inflation continue to go down and at the same time
We have quote unquote full of full employment as well. So it's a weird dynamic that we that we're seeing this year
And I wanted to end with my favorite topic that I know people don't like that. I talk a lot about because it's uncomfortable
It's an uncomfortable topic that we have to come to terms with as americans
New data came out. It was in fortune magazine the boomers now
empty nesters just to be very clear not just any boomer but
They were defined as baby boomers with two people with one or two people living in the household
28 percent of the large homes in this country, which is defined as three bedrooms or more
So just as a remark again, just want to be clear
Sorry, i'm just gonna remove that for a second so people can see it's the tweet is up in the nest. Uh, I don't know
Can you guys I hope you guys can see it, but when you look at the numbers, it's wild
That means that they have one or two people living in the home own 28 percent of the homes that have three or more bedrooms
Whereas millennials who have actual kids own 14 percent or less
And I tweeted about this and I think people were quite upset by this tweet
And I understand why because they're missing the context. So let me give some context before we close
The context here is not that they own these homes. They paid
Good money. They paid their six thousand dollars or whatever they paid when they bought it
Uh, you know because the homes were cheap and they weren't uh, they weren't as expensive as they are
But you know whatever they paid for these stupid homes, you know, uh, and I wouldn't make that
I believe is the real data set. It's a wooden nickel. Oh, oh, yeah
Yeah, a wooden nickel that they paid for this home
And you know, they they they have these homes they pay for them outright whatever
Americans have the ability to gain value in their in their equity. That's totally fine
The problem is not that they own these homes outright
The problem is that they're preventing build building of new homes in their neighborhoods
The problem is not that people shouldn't be able to stay in their home until they die
In fact, that's how most americans want to age. The problem is they don't want anybody else in their neighborhood
They don't want to change zoning laws in their neighborhood
They they go into these neighborhood meetings and municipalities and they say no to new projects
That's the real problem and the people that do it more than anybody else
In fact, even when you do polling by generation the people that are most staunchly for
Boomers and I will say something and this is like the the most important thing in my opinion is that boomers
Like literally they hate on regulation more than any other fucking generation
They are socialists for themselves and capitalists for everybody else
And that is the real problem. That is the problem that I was trying to highlight and i'm not going to be afraid of talking
You know, I know look i'm never going to run for office
So I don't need the boomer vote for anything. So I don't give a shit what they think about me
Right, but this nimbyism is synonymous with boomerism. And that's the point that I was trying to make
Guys, I know you guys have comments and I want to hear your comments
But we will do it tomorrow at 8 a.m
Eastern and in fact, we will open with it tomorrow
But I do have a day job I have to get to and our team does need to get get talking about this
Iran, Pakistan conflict, so I will see you guys later
See ya at 8 a.m. Eastern tomorrow. Thanks, everybody