Guys, just as I heads up, I have some breaking news that has now been confirmed by three different sources. So I'll be sharing that in a few minutes once we have people in the room, but it's pretty big. And by the way, I think we'll be the first to break it.
You know us all so well. Which is exactly why I said no one guess.
The even bigger news is that you changed your profile pic.
That is big news. Thank you.
People close to me told me I looked hilarious and the other one that I didn't look like me. So I was like, okay, I'll put on a more casual photo. I don't really wear suits. I don't know if you can tell I'm not much of a suit.
I don't look as good as you guys do and so it's that's part of it. I got a short neck. All right, I'm gonna bring more people up here.
Nice shirt, it's just a bomber.
Sorry, just working with the team on the back end. Get the tweet ready as soon as we do share it.
And also confirming still waiting on one final confirmation, but I think it should be confirmed in the next few minutes.
Jason, I can see your hand waving, but I do not know you, my friend. Reach out to Mario and his team, and they'll bet. Yeah. Or you're a bot. I can't tell.
The way that we go about things on these spaces is we have to be very, very careful because people, no matter how much you say, they take everything we say as financial advice. I've tried
my best not to not to let people do that, but people just don't know how to stop themselves. So I want to be very clear. I am not a journalist. I'm just a dude.
I guess a doctor dude and that's okay. I do happen to do these spaces every day. We have some very influential people that join us.
people that know what's going on. And so I just ask simple questions. Brian will want to be here for that. I'm going to bring him up. I ask very simple questions like
Hey, what are you think is going to happen with this? Or explain that. It's like not complicated. I feel like I asked like literally the dumbest questions that probably everybody else is thinking. I actually think my stupidity is my superpower, which I think is
what people can relate to because everybody tries to act like they know what's going on. But actually most of the time, big word means you don't actually know what's going on. So I make the smart things simple, hopefully.
Again, I'm going to repeat that this has been confirmed. Hold on, let me make sure that there's enough people in the room. All right, you know what? All right, Mario's team. I guess we can start clipping soon.
As of this morning, I have had conversations with three different people across both parties, one of whom is very close
to the decision maker. I have also confirmed now with one additional person who did also speak to somebody on one side of the party.
And it seems like the debt ceiling deal is now imminent. A handshake deal essentially occurred last night.
and early this morning. Now they're working specifically on final language.
the dead ceiling deal is now imminent. It's a very big deal and I can kind of share the sources but I can't really share them but I can tell you sort of the basis of the deal. The one detail from
the deal that seems to be very prominent is that and again please no one act on this Jesus I'm just like some random dude on Twitter okay all right but one of the biggest parts of this that seems to be pretty
well confirmed across both party lines is that there will be a 3% increase in defense spending. So a lot of people have been talking about how there might be defense cuts but that was not on the chopping table. That's a really big one.
That's a really big deal and I know it doesn't seem like a big deal but the market actually has been reacting to that for a long time. And so, you know, and we saw that with companies like Boeing and Lockheed and others. And so, again, this is not financial advice, but it is now confirmed. And I think we're actually the first to break it, which is nuts.
I wanted to go to her Michael and then Brian, what are you hearing? I've heard and I did check this morning and I believe we've been transparent here. So Danish and I were talking and I said, "Hey, let me call someone. Let me double-trip with check this."
I did cause someone on the right side of this who works with some of the folks who are negotiating this for leadership and we spoke and I was told the person left the office late last night but before they left it was kind of clear, hey we got a deal, we think we're trying to finalize some of the complete details.
So Michael you cut up. Did you guys hear it maybe two years ago? What about now can you hear me? Yes, we can do now. So the person went on to say they have a meeting this morning staff wise they're going to call me back in an hour or two with some of the details.
But some of the language that was given to me was very similar to the language that Danish had already heard from his other sources on the other side. Different words, but very similar. As I said yesterday guys and I got quite a few people who DMed me, thought I was nuts when I said,
everyone calm down, this is going to get done. I felt pretty confident days ago that this was going to be done and I know a lot of folks pointed to it. What about some of the comments from the speaker or from the White House? And as I said, and I just want to add this because this is important. It's a lot of political conjecture there.
And everyone has to remember, we're in an election year. And every side wants to be able to use a little politics here to rally their troops. There's nothing wrong with that process. But behind the doors, there are always individuals talking from the White House to the speakers office trying to figure this
both sides want to get a victory on this and quickly I'll say as it pertains to defense spending that was never on on the chopping block and I even saw some mainstream outlets reporting that and I reached out to a couple of my friends at the New York Times and said that's not true. The speaker was never going to agree with that and actually the president
never agreed to spending to defense cuts and so deal with coming they're hoping to make an announcement today I was told though it could be tomorrow just want to be clear on that as I believe transparency is important but we're going to get something here and so I'm happy this is good for the markets good for the country I think this is an
important moment for citizen journalism, which I think is very interesting, right? I mean, again, just want to be very clear, this was based on three sources, one of whom I know incredibly well and is incredibly close to the situation, and two others that then confirmed and
Actually, just like sure Michael said, use the exact same language. Usually, when the same language is used, the talking points are being developed. And so that's usually a very common thing that occurs in Washington. And so, name, go ahead. Yeah, there was one headline.
in the middle of the day yesterday on Bloomberg said GOP debt negotiators give grounds or give ground on defense spending demands. So that seemed to be a sticking point on the Democrat side that they didn't want to reduce any of the spending on
defense so think you're uh corrected what you're hearing. Yeah, and so just want to be clear again the breaking news this morning and I believe where the first to break it is that there a handshake agreement on the dead deal has largely occurred the
and again it's kind of nuts that other people have not reported on it yet but really excited that we get to do with first Brian. Yeah now I think this is definitely good news. I didn't expect it to come before the long weekend but if we get something prior to the weekend I
I think that's definitely a positive. I know that some of those in the more extreme right sections of the house were acting like they were pretty angry last night. So I think that it goes along with the whole idea that they have come through some sort of agreement.
And the defense spending, the actual raise and defense spending, that doesn't surprise me. I think Biden hasn't been shy about kind of, he hasn't been shy about spending militarily wise. And obviously Republicans are for that as well.
good news. I'd be interested to see what exactly the deal looks like and how long it is. Does it take it past 2024 or not? It does. It's my understanding again based on my conversations and I am not a fucking journalist. So based on my conversation
conversations, this is just a regular citizen talking to other citizens, the deal is supposed to be for two years. That's not my father. My worry would have been that they would have like left it so that right before the election the same thing would happen and that could beat the disaster.
Yeah, I don't think that deal would have gotten done, but go ahead Scott. It's interesting if people on the far right were angry about this deal. Does that imply that they actually wanted a larger increase in defense spending than just that two or three percent? I mean, I mean, the word on the street was enter
Mr. Michael said something that is important, which is what are they saying out loud in the Republican Party versus what was within, remember the speaker is a little bit closer to the center than some members of the Republican Party. There were some members of the Republican Party that actually wanted cuts in defense spending.
because they felt like everything should be on the chopping block. So it wasn't that they wanted more. It's actually that the word was they wanted less. That makes sense. I mean, I'm not surprised that I'm not surprised that Biden would be willing to negotiate on obviously on military spending because he's notoriously in favor of war and his effectively
voted for all of them over the time. So I would have been surprised if that was, in fact, on the chopping block. I find the sort of laughable nuance of this is that if you take a look at the Department of Defense Pentagon have failed their last five audits on their last audit, they effectively couldn't account for 65 to 70% of
the money in their budget, which literally is just disappeared. You're talking about $800 plus billion budget, meaning that $500, $600 billion just goes missing every single year. So it's sort of laughable to even consider the defense budget when they can't even audit or account for where the money's going. So 2% to 3% is a drop in the budget.
We have to keep in mind that the geopolitical tensions are so high right now with the war in Ukraine, China, I think it would be really politically right before an election. It would be incredibly difficult for any party to justify cutting defense spending.
just politically, purely politics, not in terms of what's right or wrong. It'll just be impossible to justify for you. I agree. And from Biden's side, obviously, the optics we've seen hundreds of millions more just this week sent to Ukraine, so that has to be justified in the budget in some way,
So it's not surprising that part of the debt ceiling deal would effectively account for and justify that spending because there's been so much pushback saying we're about to default. The Treasury has no money. How are we sending hundreds and millions of dollars more to this conflict? And now that can be easily sort of spoken for.
Yeah, you know, I would love to hear from others as well, Michael. What are your thoughts? Yeah, so my thoughts are definitely super happy to see see this get done and I was laughing when Scott was talking about those failed audits because I've rubber seeing an interview
with someone who is at the top there and they were getting pretty bad when those audits were even being asked about. I actually wanted to ask a question to someone on this panel who's smarter than me. I'm seeing reports that essentially the Treasury is going to have to replenish their
cash after this debt ceiling is lifted and people are speculating that means pulling liquidity from the markets. I was wondering if anyone knew anything about that and could speak to it because I'm seeing these reports. I just don't know a lot about how that works.
Yeah, I'm definitely not smart enough to answer that question. Does anybody I mean I think they're just going to go to the status quo. They're going to keep issuing more treasuries and I think the chart I saw like it was mid June where they're going to get that
that big replenishment or large payment of sort of quarterly income tax. So, but they'll be able to, you know, just sell more that and they'll be above the limit and they'll be fine. So.
Yeah, and you know again from a I don't know what the mechanistic perspective is going to be there's a lot of details that need to be ironed out remember that people won't be back in they're going to be in recess until Tuesday and we don't know you know, a