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#FinanceDaily: Neuralink in-human trial | BREAKING: Debt Deal Done
Recorded: May 26, 2023 Duration: 0:19:10Space Recording
Short Summary
The conversation revolves around the imminent debt ceiling deal, with discussions on defense spending increases and political implications. The deal is expected to positively impact markets and is anticipated to be finalized soon, highlighting the role of citizen journalism in breaking such news.
Full Transcription
Guys, just as a heads up, I have some breaking news that has now been confirmed by three different sources.
So I'll be sharing that in a few minutes once we have people in the room, but it's pretty big.
And by the way, I think we'll be the first to break it.
No one guess, please.
You know us all so well.
Which is exactly why I said, no one guess.
The even bigger news is that you changed your profile pick.
That is big news. Thank you.
People close to me told me I looked hilarious in the other one, that it didn't look like me.
So I was like, okay, I'll put on a more casual photo.
I don't really wear suits.
I don't know if you can tell them, not much of a suit.
I don't look as good as you guys do in suits.
That's part of it.
I got a short neck.
All right, I'm going to bring more people up here.
My shirt is just a bomber.
Sorry, just working with the team on the back end to get the tweet ready.
So as soon as we do share it.
And also confirming, still waiting on one final confirmation,
but I think it should be confirmed in the next few minutes.
Jason, I can see your hand waving, but I do not know you, my friend.
Reach out to Mario and his team and they'll bet you.
Or you're a bot. I can't tell.
All right.
All right.
So, again, the way that we go about things on these spaces is,
is we have to be very, very careful.
Because people, no matter how much you say,
they take everything we say as financial advice.
I've tried my best not to let people do that,
but people just don't know how to stop themselves.
So I want to be very clear.
I am not a journalist.
I'm just a dude.
I guess a doctor dude.
And that's okay.
I do happen to...
do these spaces every day.
We have some very influential people that join us,
people that know what's going on.
And so I just ask simple questions.
Oh, Brian will want to be here for that.
I'm going to bring him up.
I ask very simple questions.
Like, hey, what do you think is going to happen with this?
Or...
Explain that.
It's like not complicated.
I feel like I ask literally the dumbest questions
that probably everybody else is thinking.
I actually think my stupidity is my superpower,
which I think is what people can relate to
because everybody tries to act like they know what's going on,
but actually most of the time,
big words means you don't actually know what's going on.
So I make the smart thing simple, hopefully.
And again, I'm going to repeat...
that this has been confirmed.
Hold on. Let me make sure that there's enough people in the room.
All right. Well, you know what?
All right. Mario's team, I guess we can start clipping soon.
As of this morning, I have had conversations with three different people across both parties,
one of whom is very close to the decision maker.
And I've also confirmed now with one additional person who did also speak to somebody in
on one side of the party, and it seems like the debt ceiling deal is now imminent.
A handshake deal essentially occurred last night and early this morning.
Now they're working specifically on final language.
The debt ceiling deal is now imminent.
It's a very big deal, and I can kind of share the sources, but I can't really share them.
But I can tell you sort of,
the basis of the deal.
The one detail from the deal that seems to be very prominent is that, and again, please
no one act on this, Jesus, I'm just like some random dude on Twitter, okay?
All right.
But one of the biggest parts of this that seems to be pretty well confirmed across
both party lines is that there will be a 3% increase in defense spending.
So a lot of people have been talking about how there might be defense cuts, but that was not on the chopping table.
That's a really big one.
That's a really big deal.
And I know it doesn't seem like a big deal, but the market actually has been reacting to that for a long time.
And so, you know, and we saw that with companies like Boeing and Lockheed and others.
And so, again, this is not financial advice, but it is now confirmed.
And I think we're actually the first to break it, which is nuts.
Right.
But, you know, wanted to go to Shermichael and then Brian, Shermichael, you know, what are you hearing?
I mean, I've heard and I did check this morning and I believe we're being transparent here.
So Danish and I were talking.
I said, hey, let me call someone.
Let me double, triple check this.
I did call someone on the right side of this who works with some of the folks who are negotiating this for leadership.
And we spoke and I was told the person left the office late last night, but before they left, it was kind of clear, hey, we got a deal, we think, we're trying to finalize some of the complete detail.
It's for Michael, you cut out.
Did you guys hear it maybe two years?
Okay, what about now? Can you hear me?
Yes, we can hear me now.
So the person went on to say they have a meeting this morning.
Staff-wise, they're going to call me back in an hour or two with some of the details.
But some of the language that was given to me was very similar to the language that Danish had already heard from his other sources on the other side.
Different words, but very similar.
As I said yesterday, guys, and I got quite a few people who DM'd me.
You thought I was nuts when I said, everyone calmed down.
This is going to get done.
I felt pretty confident days ago that this was going to be done.
And I know a lot of folks pointed to it.
What about some of the comments from the Speaker or from the White House?
And as I said, and I just want to add this because this is important.
It's a lot of political conjecture there.
And everyone has to remember, we're in an election year.
And every side wants to be able to use a little politics here to sort of rally their troops.
There's nothing wrong with that process.
But behind the doors, there were always...
behind the scenes are always individuals talking from the White House or the Speaker's Office trying to figure this
both sides want to get a victory on this. And quickly, I'll say, as it pertains to defense spending,
that was never on the chopping block. And I even saw some mainstream outlets reporting that.
And I reached out to a couple of my friends at the New York Times and said, that's not true.
The speaker was never going to agree with that. And actually, the president never agreed to
spending to defense cuts. And so,
Deal is coming. They're hoping to make an announcement today. I was told though it could be tomorrow. I just want to be clear on that as I believe transparency is important, but we're going to get something here. And so I'm happy this is good for the markets, good for the country.
I think this is an important moment for citizen journalism, which I think is very interesting, right?
I mean, again, just want to be very clear, this was based on three sources, one of whom I know incredibly well and is incredibly close to the situation.
And two others that then confirmed, and actually, just like Sir Michael said, use the exact same.
same language. Usually, when the same language is used, the talking points are being developed.
And so that's usually a very common thing that occurs in Washington. And so, uh, name, go ahead.
Yeah, there was, uh, one headline in the middle of the day yesterday.
on Bloomberg said GOP debt negotiators give grounds or give ground on defense spending demands.
So that seemed to be a sticking point on the Democrat side that they didn't want to
reduce any of the spending on defense.
So I think you're correct in what you're hearing.
Yeah.
So just want to be clear again, the breaking news this morning, and I believe we're the first to break it,
is that.
A handshake agreement on the dead deal has largely occurred.
And Sharmichael is actually right.
Those were words that, hey, the deal will be done today.
I did hear that there might be, if they can get the nuances, the final details ironed out.
They're going to try to get a press conference later today.
but it might spill into tomorrow.
And again, it's kind of nuts that other people have not reported on it yet,
but really excited that we get to do it first.
Brian?
Yeah, no, I think this is definitely good news. I didn't expect it to come before the long weekend, but if we get something prior to the weekend, I think that's definitely a positive. I know that some of those in the more extreme right sections of the house were acting like they were pretty angry last night. So I think that
it goes along with the whole idea that they have come to some sort of agreement.
And the defense spending, the actual raise in defense spending, that doesn't surprise me.
I think Biden hasn't been shy about kind of,
He hasn't been shy about spending militarily wise.
And obviously Republicans are for that as well.
So it's good news.
I'd be interested to see what exactly the deal looks like and how long it is.
Does it take it past 2024 or not?
It does.
Yeah.
It's my understanding, again, based on my conversations, and I am not a fucking journalist.
So, based on my conversations, this is just a regular citizen talking to other citizens,
the deal is supposed to be for two years.
Yeah, that's definitely positive.
My worry would have been that they would have left it so that right before the election,
the same thing would happen, and that could be disastrous.
Yeah, I don't think that deal would have gotten done.
But go ahead, Scott.
It's interesting if people on the far right were angry about this deal,
does that imply that they actually wanted a larger increase in defense spending than just that 2% or 3%.
I mean, I find the best.
The word on the street was, and Sir Michael said something that is important, which is what are they saying out loud in the Republican Party versus what was within, remember, the speaker is a little bit closer to the center than some members of the Republican Party.
There were some members of the Republican Party that actually wanted cuts in defense spending.
Because they felt like everything should be on the chopping block.
So it wasn't that they wanted more.
It's actually that the word was they wanted less.
That makes sense.
I mean, I'm not surprised that Biden would be willing to negotiate on,
obviously, on military spending because he's notoriously in favor of war
and has effectively voted for all of them over the time.
So I would have been surprised if that was...
in fact, on the chopping block.
I find the sort of laughable nuance of this
is that if you take a look,
the Department of Defense Pentagon
have failed their last five audits.
On their last audit,
they effectively couldn't account for 65 to 70 percent
of the money in their budget, which literally has just disappeared.
And you're talking about an $800-plus billion dollar budget,
meaning that, you know, $500, $600 billion just goes missing every single year.
So it's sort of laughable to even consider the defense budget
when they can't even audit or account for where the money's going.
So 2 to 3% is a drop in the bucket, almost just irrelevant.
Also, we have to keep in mind that the geopolitical tensions are so high right now.
with the war in Ukraine, with China,
I think it would be really politically,
right before an election,
it would be incredibly difficult
for any party to justify cutting defense spending
when all we're talking about,
by the way, geopolitics is going to be a very large part
of the conversation,
both in the markets,
but also, you know,
with inflation continuing to be sticky into next year,
there's going to be a lot of conversations around this.
So I think it'll be really hard to justify
the economy.
You know, again, thinking just politically, like purely politics, not in terms of what's right or wrong.
It'll just be impossible to justify for either.
Yeah, I agree.
And from Biden's side, obviously, I mean, the optics, we've seen hundreds of millions more just this week sent to Ukraine, right?
So that has to be justified in the budget in some way, shape, or form.
So it's not surprising that part of the debt ceiling deal would...
effectively account for and justify that spending because there's been so much pushback saying we're about to default the treasury has no money how are we sending hundreds and millions of dollars more to this conflict and now that can be easily sort of spoken for yeah you know i would love to hear from others uh as well uh mickle what are your thoughts
Yeah, so my thoughts are definitely super happy to see see this get done. And I was laughing when Scott was talking about those failed audits because I remember seeing an interview with someone who is at the top there and they were getting pretty mad when those audits were even being asked about.
I actually wanted to ask a question to someone on this panel who's smarter than me.
I'm seeing reports that essentially the Treasury is going to have to replenish their cash after this debt ceiling is lifted.
And people are speculating that means pulling liquidity from the markets.
I was wondering if anyone knew anything about that and could speak to it because I'm seeing these reports.
I just don't know a lot about how that works.
Yeah, I'm definitely not smart enough to answer that question.
Does anybody have to answer?
I mean, I think they're just going to go to the status quo.
They're going to keep issuing more treasuries.
And I think the chart I saw like it was mid-June
where they're going to get that big replenishment
or large payment of sort of quarterly income tax.
But they'll be able to just sell more debt.
And they'll be above the limit.
They'll be fine.
So, yeah, and, you know, again, from a, I don't know what the mechanistic perspective is going to be.
There's a lot of details that need to be ironed out.
Remember that people won't be back in.
They're going to be in recess until Tuesday.
And we don't know, you know,
For Michael, does the three-day period for review include the weekend or does it have to be business days or like actual Congress days?
See, that's the part that I was that I'm curious about and I was actually just texting another friend of mine who works for a different person in the House of leadership on the Republican side to try to understand if the caucus have been given any kind of heads up yet.
I mean, it's a.
of Friday. So presumably
the speaker could say, okay, I'm going to give
you guys Saturday, Sunday, Monday
if he doesn't get
pushback. Now, I'm kind of
wondering if there are going to be some folks on
the freedom in the
