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FOMO HOUR: Crypto Comeback, Coinbase Ad & MegaETH KPIs
Recorded: Feb. 9, 2026 Duration: 1:01:29Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic crypto landscape, Bitcoin rebounds to $71K while Japan's new PM may influence favorable regulations. The upcoming MegaEth token launch ties its success to performance metrics, signaling a shift in fundraising strategies. Meanwhile, the White House Crypto Council's discussions on the Clarity Act could pave the way for clearer regulations in the industry.
Full Transcription
Thank you. Thank you. GM everyone and welcome to another episode of FOMO hour.
Today is Monday, February 9th, 2026.
Folks, crypto sold off last week and we had a fierce rebound on Friday.
Bitcoin's zooming all the way back to 71K.
We've cooled off a little since then, and now we're wondering,
is there more pain ahead, or is the bottom behind us?
We're going to break it down on today's show.
I'm in the host seat today, Tyler D.
I've also got Logan in the studio with us here.
No Faroe, he is out in Hong Kong.
Mando should be joining us shortly as well.
Logan live from his new digs.
GM, how you doing?
Yeah. Hey, good morning.
I'm fighting through some new audio, video setup.
So I hope everything keeps upright for the show
but i'm i'm doing well it's an interesting time to be back on the show after a crazy crazy week
in crypto of course indeed excited to get your thoughts uh before we get there though how was
your super bowl did were you watching last night uh well as you know tyler uh it is not a bit my detraction from football
american football i should say i literally slept through the entire super bowl wow we moved we
moved all weekend so my body was quite tired i threw on a nature show on disney plus i fell
asleep marco watched right here alongside me she watched the entire thing. I was sleeping. I woke up in the fourth quarter.
Football's out.
Tennis is in.
Sorry, folks.
Well, the thing is, you really didn't miss much because it was not an enjoyable football game
unless you had bet heavily on the Seahawks.
Then you had a nice evening.
There were some interesting ads, which we will get to,
as part of some of our talking items for here today.
So, folks, what are we talking about on today's show?
We'll go through the market report.
As always, this new Japanese PM, Takachi, if I'm saying that correctly, they had a landslide yesterday.
It sent Japanese markets.
We're curious if that's going to roll over into crypto as well.
We've got strategy somehow buying at a 79k average last week.
How is that even possible?
The Coinbase Super Bowl ad and some mixed reactions from retail out there.
So we'll dig into that a bit.
We'll check in on Ace Trader.
Homie Farouk is live in the top eight here in the final stretch.
We're talking about maybe some hyperliquid weakness here. Amidst a broader crypto recovery,
the White House Crypto Council about to meet again tomorrow
with the banks and crypto firms trying to get this Clarity Act
across the goal line.
Mega E saying no TGE until we hit the KPIs.
Saw some folks up in arms about that.
We'll talk about that.
Banker dominating the meme action plus a lot more.
And we'll end the show with a spin, Yeet spin. We may not do the Yeet action today,
but we will at least select a winner. And we've got our co-host in the house, Amanda,
the man who called the Bitcoin rebound to 72K in public. I think we went to 71.9. GM, sir, how are you doing?
Good. How are you guys?
Yeah, not...
It's kind of a bit annoying. It feels like
the volatility just died, didn't it? That's kind of where we're at.
We had the volatility of a downside, and then
KPM was like, oh, you you know we're going to rip back up
it's going to break back
I think
this is
all your hopes and dreams are dashed
we hang out at 69k for six months
oh no
not exactly what we wanted to hear after our
Merry Christmas
on Friday but
well maybe we'll get into it, Mando.
We can just start live with your market report.
If you don't mind getting in, I don't have our intro music today.
Oh, there it is.
Thanks for sharing.
Who's the man, macro daddy of the land?
Can you dig it?
GM, everyone.
So we did have, I guess we were around this sort of level
when the show went live on Friday.
Bitcoin was just south of 70K,
and I think ETH is slightly outperformed.
It's now kind of 2017.
We obviously had some very big liquidations there,
or close to liquidations.
Trend research reduced their position.
You're Garrett Bullish as well.
So maybe Ether is in a slightly stronger technical picture, but I think the idea of just us doing
a V-shaped rebound is, it doesn't seem like it's happening right now.
We just kind of seem to be hanging out.
Gold is starting to outperform again.
Gold got back above 5K.
There was talk today of China telling its banks to not own US treasuries,
which I think is like a bullish metals trade again.
But yeah, some strength in gold, strength in silver.
We are hitting like lower highs.
So potentially this is like more like a channel now for gold.
At least lower highs for now and kind of the same for silver.
But the rest of the market is heading slightly south.
I think there's still a little bit of worry just about tech stocks a little bit here.
They've all kind of sold off recently
and we haven't really seen bounces.
Amazon was the latest to kind of really go
and it didn't really bounce at all.
So, yeah, it's scaring.
I wouldn't say it's crazy scary.
It's like we lost him briefly there.
I'm sure we'll get him back here in a second.
It sucks a little weak here today.
It looks like we've also got some macro data this week that might be an overhang.
I mean, I think we kind of make up these narratives sometimes.
But it looks like jobs report on Wednesday.
That was supposed to come out last week.
It got pushed.
And then we've got CPI on Friday.
So a couple big macro numbers here coming this week.
I think something I'm imagining that was going to get into it, but a big macro headline
was out of Japan. So PM Takachi won in her party, the LGP won in like a massive landslide, which I am not an expert in.
This may surprise you.
I'm not an expert in Japanese politics and impact on their economy.
But from my understanding, landslide is going to be easier for them to get a lot of
things passed. And she is historically crypto friendly. They are expecting to slash crypto
taxes from 55% to a flat 20%, allow some loss carry forward. So some reclassification, some regulatory stuff, some tax stuff.
That seemingly is slightly bullish.
Crypto, I think we'll take what we can get.
I mean, certainly their stock market reacts to it.
I haven't checked in today, but as of yesterday on the market open,
the Japanese index jumped 6%.
So pretty significant move over there.
I think this comes at an interesting time where China continues to roll out the crypto
FUD and is going anti-crypto again.
Meanwhile, Japan perhaps is going the other way.
So I thought that was fairly interesting.
I think a couple other macro ones here from today.
We got the strategy buy report.
Strategy acquired 90 million in Bitcoin at a 78.8K average.
Sailor, how is it possible?
I'm going to pull up the chart.
I have to show everyone the chart from last week.
Let's see.
So a full week. today is February 9th. Let's
go back to the second. All right, let's zoom out here. Actually, let's look at the hour. They'll
even give us a better picture of where last week's. So here's last Monday. We were hanging out.
We were at 78.
So we were at 78 K for basically one day.
And then the next day we were at 76 and then we just plummeted and somehow
sailor made all of his buys at the 78 K level.
Where did I lose you?
We probably like three, two or three minutes ago um we had just started talking
you were talking about amazon weakness um and yeah yeah amazon's a little bit weakness you
got to be worried about stocks here um i i was just i continued on actually for a while there
so i basically just said i think some people think that this is the breakdown of the trade still that we will have a deviation below that 200 week moving average that
will probably get down to a low 50s maybe high 40s other people are like we were the most oversold
we've been in years and normally see very strong rebound there um even if the bearish train
continues my view is that you are going to stay in this
range for a bit. I think this is a pretty good range that we were in for nine or eight, nine
months in 2024. I think we will probably respect that for a while. And yeah, I would be bullish if we broke above 73, 74K for like a breakout.
Like, oh, we're going to, you know, we're going back to,
then you can kind of look at it and go like, right,
are we heading back to like 80, 85 maybe?
If we break below 58K, it could get ugly.
Yeah.
54, I guess, was that
bottom range.
Look, a chart like that,
it's tough to be bullish.
I have to say.
You look at that, it's
tough to be that bullish.
The trend, to me, looks down.
So you're really playing
reversals here and how long can a reversal last.
So I would think about the market a bit like that.
Don't go all in.
Trying to pull the bottom here.
If it really is a bottom, we'll get another retest.
For sure.
That makes sense.
So the range is what, like 60 to 70?
Is that the primary range?
I think that was the really defined range.
We did go down to like the low 50s,
I think, back in 2024, like 55, yeah.
That could happen again.
And it would be fine, you know?
That would be fine.
That would be respecting that same range.
Six months of 55k to 70k incoming it's going to be uh a fun h1 here here for us no doubt so on
your so you mentioned the long from i think what 64 65 on bitcoin so are you still in that or you
close most of that i'm out i'm out uh close half of it around 70, and the rest of it went away after about 71.
I just don't see an obvious trade.
That seemed like a really oversold point.
It felt like we would do a rebound on the headlines.
We went up, what, 12%?
Yeah.
And then we did what I thought it was going to do,
which is just chill.
I think this is no man's land.
What are you looking to do if you're going long?
You're going to have to get through that 71 level again?
Maybe.
But I wouldn't bet on that. And then if you lose this,
then we're just kind of back to the range where it could go down to 58,
55 pretty easily. So of back to the range where it could go down to 58, 55 pretty easily.
So I would respect the range.
Like, I'll be buying if we go back to the... I mean, I would have bought in the low 60s if I had the chance.
I woke up and it was at 64.
But I think high 50s, low 60s is where I'll look to nibble again.
I don't think we break down from this range again.
I think we're going to expect this for a while.
You think anything can happen?
Yeah, Logan, go ahead.
All right.
I was going to wonder if I could hop in with a question.
Mando is going to be back with you.
I haven't chatted in a long time.
I wrote a piece about the Galaxy analyst who indicated the move towards the 200-week moving average at 58K.
He highlighted no near-term catalysts.
From my perspective, writing about it in the last couple of months,
it doesn't feel like there is a clear near-term catalyst.
I mean, in your view, is there anything on the near-term roadmap that could send things upwards?
I said the Clarity Act may,
but even then I didn't think it was big enough.
There's some movement there, so maybe.
Maybe that gets you,
but I don't think that gets everyone super bullish.
I honestly thought it would be a bit more of an implosion in Japan.
That would be the bigger thing that would cause this to happen.
But that hasn't really caused Bitcoin to go higher.
yeah it's a difficult one like what
Yeah, it's a difficult one.
What are you bullish on right now?
what are you bullish on right now
yeah I think I was bullish on crypto
as a
technology more than
Bitcoin right now
and that's dragging everything down
but the narrative follows price
like
if we start rallying
people will say that was the obvious bottom
you know there's so many things going for Bitcoin which are longer term things If we start rallying, people will say that was the obvious bottom.
There's so many things going for Bitcoin, which are longer term things,
which is just debasement.
You just need to face back a little bit.
So I'm not getting overly caught up on the narrative.
And I haven't.
Since we dropped below 100K, I have not been focused on the narrative.
I've been focused on the price because the narrative didn't make sense to me.
And now it's just been about watching the levels and playing it level to level.
To me, this looks like a graph that more often than not is going to break back down again.
But I do think we're going to be in this range for a bit.
So I'm not sitting there having some narrative about this is the lows, this has to be anything like that. That as a chart doesn't look that good to me. It looks much worse for some of
the altcoins. Much, much worse. So to me, just respecting it, I still think you have to be very
cautious going along in this market, but I don't think we're going to break down for a while.
So the flip side to your question,gan what are the catalysts i mean
bernstein's coming out today and basically saying this is the weakest bear case it's like
what is the bear case other than just the chart is broken down too right but that's been kind of
the same story since we've been selling off well i mean in my view the bear case is that the and
maybe this is a little bit of that narrative part that Nando's talking about.
The bear case is that the narrative hasn't taken hold. Nobody sees it as the digital gold. Gold went up. Bitcoin didn't.
You know, I don't want to segue too far, Tyler, because that Financial Times piece, I know you wanted to talk about maybe a little bit.
But more or less, my interpretation of that article was that like all greater fool stuff and now the fools are running out type thing you know um and
is that a really strong bear case for right now maybe i don't know yeah just an incredible opinion
piece from the financial times over the weekend going viral he's viral in the CT circles. I have not read it. I saw some
screenshots from the article.
I did not subscribe to read this one.
They had to adjust their headline because originally
it was Bitcoin still about $69,000 too high
and then it went up $1,000 and they redid
the headline and the
graphics.
Take us through Jemima Kelly's
thoughts on this. More or less, take us through Jemima Kelly's thoughts on this.
Yeah. I mean, more or less, again, this is my interpretation of her opinion,
is that Bitcoin has reached this point in which all of the things lined up perfectly. You have a
very crypto-friendly president, right? You have all the regulatory stuff that improved,
particularly for the United States structurally, right. And Bitcoin is still floundering at this point in period. And there are not really strong catalysts moving forward. You know, there are not people to keep being the greater fool to keep buying.
his purchases. And I think she, I don't have the article up anymore, but she called him something,
something billionaire. I don't know. It's kind of funny. I got a chuckle out of it, but
more or less my interpretation was that gotten to this point where it's reached so far on the back
of the greater fool thing, right? So people just having this belief that it's worth something,
even though there's really no reason for them to believe that it's worth something. And whatever.
I mean, you can have that argument.
You can debate that back and forth.
You could probably make the same argument for gold, right?
Aside from the fact that gold has just been around longer and people have agreed that it's worth something.
So maybe you can continue to write these pieces about anything that has any value ever.
It's very provocative, though.
That just seems like very basic analysis of what, like,
oh, Bitcoin's not worth anything.
Much better would be like, Quantum's going to screw it,
or the security budget long term could screw it.
Those are real valid takes.
Just saying, oh, it shouldn't be K2I just says,
it just flies in the face of what everyone else believes.
So I'm not worried.
That is not the reason
I think Bitcoin's selling off.
I don't think Bitcoin's selling off
because people suddenly
don't think it can be worth anything.
The most incredible,
just real quick, Logan,
the most incredible part
of that story is the author
has been covering
and funding Bitcoin
since $650 price point.
So, you know, she. So she's incredible.
I did not see that.
Six,
650.
Oh my goodness.
She must tweeting since 2014.
Having a tough time.
So either trolling and,
and has a stack and stats on,
on the side wallets or a generational sideliner you know i can i can
appreciate the the conviction to it though you know what i mean yeah you have to you have to
appreciate that i i just pulled up the article though tyler just to make sure i was uh quoting
things appropriately so yeah she goes into the fact that you know you have sailor buying you
have the president invested family interest in crypto, which we've talked about.
You have, you know, the things like Americans able to put eventually, right, potentially put it in their 401k.
And she says, if Bitcoin can't thrive in this environment, when can it? And she goes into not being able to detail when the final spiral will happen, but says trying to work out the end date of a speculative mania based purely on belief, or more specifically on belief in other people's belief, is a difficult task.
But that belief is starting to ebb.
You know, again, just talking about the fact that, like, it's gotten to this point
because people have gotten others to believe, and now everything is shaky.
You know, the belief that there is worth anything here is faltering.
that there is worth anything here is faltering, which, again, you know, I, of course, did full
disclosure own Bitcoin and I'm rooting for it to succeed. But if you were going to write this
article now seems like a pretty damn good time to do it as it kind of does falter in the face of
gold's run and the debasement trade and stuff. So it was splashy. That's for sure. I think
Financial Times tweeted that it was like, Oh yeah, right there.
One of our most read opinion pieces since, uh, since 2022.
Well, I mean, people love to read about crypto going down.
I mean, it's actually related to another topic.
Maybe we can just go there now. So the Coinbase commercial yesterday, um,
aired during the Super Bowl.
Everyone's hyped.
It's Backstreet Boys music.
Everyone's getting into it. And then they do the hard reveal at the end.
And it turns out that it's a Coinbase ad.
Crypto is for everyone.
And then you see like the retail reactions.
And it seems like the universal retail sentiment was booze.
And like in this video, the guy's flipping off the screen,
which I thought was funny, but also just like somewhat indicative
and actually maybe more of a serious problem.
Like we're laughing and joking right now.
But, Logan, I mean, is this indicative of retail's crypto sentiment
in February 2026 that everyone loves the commercial and they see his Coinbase and they
instantly flip and they just hate it.
I think so. I think so. I mean, it's so polarizing now.
Like there are a million reasons to hate crypto and there's basically no reason
to love it right now because prices aren't going up.
I couldn't think of a single reason to love, you know, as someone who works here, but even if I
didn't, I couldn't think of a single reason to love crypto right now. You know, the idealism
surrounding all of the stuff that created this industry is basically out the window.
Prices are not going up, so you can't celebrate that and you have at least for americans you have
a president who has made it very much a conflict of interest for himself and his party and his
family and so 50 percent of americans right there have drawn a line that it's bad you know because
of his affiliation with it i get it i get why you'd be upset um i thought the ad was kind of silly and whatever uh
i don't know personally i did watch it even though i didn't i wasn't awake for it
but i don't know there's no reason to love crypto right now i think if you're if you're
a retail or a normie i can't think of one i think that might be a somewhat bearish take. Why would you, why?
Like still, I don't know why, you know,
I have no normie friends text.
I actually haven't even had anybody texting me dunking on it.
You know, I have my mom in the background
continuing to say that it's a passing fad.
She's been saying that for a decade.
You know, so she's still in my ear
and rooting for me now that I've just moved out.
She's rooting for me to move back home already,
given the price crash.
But I don't have any normies even dunking on me.
Like, I think they've called it victory at this point, you know?
I'm down bad enough.
They're not stepping on me at this point.
No one's interested.
Like, that's one of the big things here.
I don't know how to get somebody interested either.
I see comments about being bearish. I mean, I'm apathetic, I think is a better term.
I'm not necessarily bearish. You know, we didn't talk about this last week, Tyler.
Like I didn't sell anything. I'm completely apathetic.
You know, like it sucked watching price to go down. I'm not rooting for it to go down.
I want it to go up. You know, personally and professionally, I'm, of course, very it to go down. I want it to go up. Personally and professionally, I'm of course very tied to the industry,
but I kind of shrugged my shoulders at this,
at this point in time. Like, I don't know.
What am I going to say to somebody?
So I had this conversation with a few folks because yesterday and what brings
retail back is retail just gone forever.
And I think it's as simple as FOMO.
Like I think as soon as the numbers start going up,
people will come back just like they did in prior cycles.
And I think one key difference of this last cycle is other than like the
immediate Trump pump from 60 to 90,
it was such a slow grind up that we didn't really have many of those 5%, 10% days.
And like hell, like gold and silver just had it last month.
And then you've got several stocks, different stock sectors printing these candles and the crypto just didn't have it.
But if and when it does again, I think people come back just because I think ultimately, why are you trading any of these things?
For the most part, other than long-term 15, 20-year hold, you're trying to make money and get a return.
And as soon as that's available again, I think people will come back.
That's my view.
Yeah, you need prices to go up.
Definitely.
I'm still – I see all the comments about being bearish. Of course, my commentary at this point in time sounds very bearish. I mean, it is a little bearish, of course.
in crypto i've said this a few times when i've been on the show recently tyler about the boring
stuff just being the stuff that wins you know uh which i i just don't know how that manifests
itself for retail users like how do retail users win if uh you know crypto can go up like trillions
can come on chain for banking and stable coin use etc i i'm firmly convicted in that happening
i don't know that that manifests itself in retail users winning.
Well, I mean,
if you think of the core use case is a new global financial system that's
permissionless that anyone can use.
The reality is a lot of people in the U S don't need that use case,
right? Like their financial system works just fine, at least for right now.
But it'll be there if, and it is needed and there's there's
other countries around the world where it's it's much more needed but i understand uh your your pov
uh to say the least mando it's worth yeah go ahead i did not sell i'm still holding i did not sell. I'm still holding. I did not sell. So bearish near term, of course. Yeah.
A little bit. And apathetic. Yes. There is nothing, you know, talk about the near term
catalyst more specifically for Bitcoin price. I'm not the guy to speak to about that. But I mean,
just from a headline perspective, which I'm writing every single day, there aren't,
it doesn't feel like, you know like I'm not getting those narrative,
good headline catalyst vibes.
So, yeah, apathetic a little bit.
Amanda, were you tuned in for the Super Bowl?
It's a little late.
It was late.
I had some money on the half-time show.
First song or Cardi B performing
first song
and Lady Gaga
that was the insider for sure
yeah someone
told me gotta go for these
nice
looks like you
hit them
their volume is like insane
it was like 80 million dollars
oh on those specific markets yeah It was like $80 million. Oh, on those specific markets?
Yeah.
I was like, what is this?
The volumes are insane.
I did it before I went to bed.
I was like, okay, I'll put some money on this.
The guy was like, oh, it's definitely going to be these two.
It was like 60%, but it was almost as much volume as the Super Bowl.
People were going wild on this stuff.
Koushi did $871 million total on Super Bowl Sunday.
But the majority of it was in these rounds.
It was like who was going to attend the game?
It was like $50 million of volume.
Oh, yeah.
Their number two bet.
Number two bet is for a Super Bowl song.
Number five bet is performance.
Number seven bet.
Guess. So three of the top seven were the entertainment markets now i have to say like
there's clearly the people who know all this sort of stuff this is what i didn't understand about
the whole market i was like how is there 60 million of volume available on something like
if it was something like if if ben affleck was going to tell him at the game.
And I was like,
only someone who knows Ben Affleck can just ask him,
and he will not give a shit.
Did you hit this, Mando?
Did you get a TV me per Gunto?
I did. I did.
It was like 60% odds.
I was like, fuck it. I'll do it.
And then there were some touts who thought some random tout
said that this
some other song was going to be in.
And then the odds
spiked briefly. And of course, it didn't
hit.
But this is the thing. Everyone, it was like,
a guy said to me, oh, I know
a guy who knows a guy who knows a guy.
And I was just like, he was like, we could just be being farmed here or it could be real knows a guy and i was just like he was like we could just
being being farmed here or it could be real it's 50 50 odds i was like yeah why not but clearly
other people had a guy who knew a guy i know a guy too like this market is just who has the best
inside information i'm sorry and the thing about this one i mean assuming they did a rehearsals
like dozens to hundreds of people knew lots of people now yeah it was there were market
there were huge markets on who would even turn up to the game like i'm sorry but if you just
ask celebrity your friends them just said hey are you going to the game they said no
like it was wild like of course there's it's not even inside like this is a market built for
insider trading it's like who has the information?
And it's being built with, like, 60 fucking million of volume.
Ben Affleck's going to show up.
Like, it's insane.
It's insane.
You need to start befriending Hollywood publicists.
I put on the bet, and I woke up this morning at 1,
and I was just like, this is a farce.
Like, no wonder. No wonder people just like, this is a farce. Like, no wonder.
No wonder people are like, this is just a joke.
Like, this is a way to transfer money to insiders.
I think it's actually a pretty big net negative.
And I think it's going to come to a tipping point.
At some time.
I just don't know how, though.
Like, no one's like though people are willing to bet
on this stuff, clearly
there's clearly a market for it
you could have gone both sides on this
but the people
who will regularly win will be people who
know Ben Affleck
know someone that's
boating on the Oscars
I had a look around and I was like, oh right
you can bet right now on
that Leonardo DiCaprio movie to win I was like, oh right, you can bet right now on that Leonardo
LeCaprio movie to win. I was like, well
somebody's going to know somebody
at the Oscars, right?
And people are just going to make money.
Ben Affleck did not go apparently. I looked at it
this morning and I was like, well, somebody knew.
Yeah, like I think
I would just be wary because I think there's some weird incentives here.
There's incentives from the prediction market to show they have really high volumes.
Also, large market makers are coming in and attracted by liquid markets.
So you get, like, and then the way to resolve these, like, there's so much information on some of these markets.
It's just wild.
It's wild.
It's not like, oh, yeah, we saw a little bit with, like,
the Iran stuff or Colombia.
But if it's just, will this person go somewhere?
And it's, you can put, like like there was 80 million of volume going through on
on that first on that first song 80 million of volume going through insane so here's a
incredible example so this wallet freshly created put 47 000 across like every super bowl halftime performance market hit them all except for the cardi b hit
bet cardi b no because cardi b was not a performer but she was like shown singing
and resolved yes so even the insider missed that one but like 47k is is like as i think about this
is probably someone who's like kind of like a normal Joe
who maybe like works there or saw this.
And they're like, they get along with their buddies.
Like, hey, I've got the answers to all of these.
Like, let's pool our capital and bet all these things
and get as much down.
And I probably got, I mean, then for me,
for someone like me, it's probably the third-hand person, right?
Like, he's probably...
I don't know how many degrees of separation.
You have to, like...
You know you could be getting far.
Because the crazy thing could be, like,
if somebody's saying, hey, you know,
Cardi B's or Lady Gaga's not going to perform,
and actually she does perform and screws everyone,
you're taking the other side.
Like, you know you can actually get farmed really hard here,
so you don't know.
But yeah, I made 70 grand yesterday on this.
Oh, shit.
I put on huge size.
I was like, well, why not?
Before I would spend.
And that's just wild.
Well, so what's happened?
The evolution is, a year ago these
markets existed but you would have been lucky to get seven hundred dollars down or maybe seven
thousand but now they are extremely liquid to the point where you can actually get the capital down
you could i could put more on this than i could on like some of the alt lines on the game that's
how fucking wild the liquidity
was. I was like, how has this market
got this much size? I don't know if it's
Calci coming in and giving the liquidity
or if it's market makers or
somebody started putting on
a big position and then started market making it, but
that is just
not normal that you can get that
amount on a game, on a song
to be played at the game, right? It's not normal, but can bet that amount on a game on a song to be played at the game right
it's not normal but perhaps it's our new normal i was like okay cool i'm gonna keep looking for
this like this is clearly inside of trading market like the actual platforms themselves
are happy with the liquidity happy with the volume um and people are gonna know this sort
of stuff so go to ho Hollywood, make some friends.
Let's spend some money.
Man, just wait for the World Cup markets.
Who's going to be in each of these games?
Just start getting the –
Oh, my God.
The jet trackers out.
Start the 11th or some of the games?
Yeah, we're going to be able to do these a couple times per day.
So it's going to be an interesting summer. I do
want to, well, let's come back to a few of our topics. We got to talk ACE trailer, um, here.
So we are in the final day. The tournament ends midnight UTC, which I think is like 7 PM Eastern.
which I think is like 7 p.m. Eastern.
Well, I'll do the UTC conversion here in a second.
Oh, no.
Faroe fell out of the top eight.
I was just going to say he was seventh this morning.
It looks like he's below the line.
He may not know this.
He's traveling to Hong Kong.
I don't know if he's landed yet or not.
Okay, so he has landed.
He's now $1 thousand dollars out of the
top eight which he's um he's played it well he's made a couple big trades he's been tight he hasn't
been over trading i mean he's still just a thousand bucks out so he's very alive just has to get a
trade in here in the next eight to ten hours or so uh so we'll be watching this one closely to shards,
commanding lead up 44 K pretty impressive.
So a 440% ROI on the week.
I mean,
this was a great week to have a purpose tournament.
Like there was an insane volatility.
So this was a ripe one.
If you caught the momentum, I'll tell my personal story. So I was a ripe one if you caught the momentum.
I'll tell my personal story.
So I was coming back.
I hit the reset.
I had 2,500.
I doubled it Thursday night, and I doubled it again Friday.
But I kept my Bitcoin long open.
I had 71.7 as a TP zone.
I think it hit 71.5 overnight Friday, and then it sold off.
And I got liquidated. So I got a little too greedy on a late long. as a, as a TP zone, I think it hit 71, five overnight Friday and then it sold off and I
got liquidated. So I got a little too greedy, uh, on a late long. Um, I thought the contest
ended Sunday. So I thought Friday was my last chance to have any volatility. So I had to,
to push to get to top eight. It was like, I looked at it. I was still like six K out
of the top 10 and said, like, if I'm going to make any kind of a run,
like now is the time.
So took the shot, got a little greedy, wasn't the best shot.
But it looks like there is still a little bit more time.
For Oak and the ICO Beast, myriad competition is going to be,
no, Far Oak's got that one be pretty handy.
Mando likely to take the KBM bet.
Not a huge surprise there.
Are you putting any trades on in the final 10 hours?
How are you thinking about this, Mando?
No, I mean, the trade would have been on that Friday,
and I just put it on IRL.
So I didn't focus on it that much
right now I would
this is not a time to try and win positions
right? It's like a dangerous time
maybe
that's the problem with waiting
to the final day sometimes right like you gotta
now what are you gonna do like we might just be flat today
trading a two percent range so i guess good luck um so we'll see how this uh this turns out we'll
be rooting for the homie faroq in this and i think the next round is gonna be different it's
gonna be head-to-heads heads. And I think there are timing
windows. So maybe we'll get stats back on.
I got a roll, guys.
Thank you for joining us. Thank you, man.
To chat through how this next round
will work.
And yeah, we'll check out the winners
tomorrow.
Next topic. I want to talk MegaEath
with you a bit, Logie. We are both fluff holders looking forward anxiously to the Mega TGE event.
And I think one of the most looked forward to airdrops slash TGE events of Q1.
We thought it was coming January, February timeframe.
And now it looks like it might not, in fact, be coming.
We saw this article come out from Brother Bing, co-founder of MegaEth.
This dropped, what, Thursday or Friday?
I think it came out on Friday.
Very interesting tagline to make this undoubtedly clear. Mega ETH is a token business. So coming out
and hitting you right out of the gate with how important the token is, they talk through their
thought process on whether to TGE or not. And ultimately their decision to tie their TGE event to KPIs,
three primary KPIs that have to be hit.
These are key performance indicators for those who aren't familiar.
They need to have $500 million of their stablecoin USDM issued in 30 days.
And 25% has to be deposited into non-custodial smart contracts
or actually put into use somewhere on MegaEath.
They need to have 10 Mega Mafia apps live
with some level of baseline usage.
I'm actually curious to know a little bit more
about what the baseline usage means.
And then three apps with greater than 50K in daily fees.
That's for 30 consecutive days
that just below that 50k for 30 consecutive days you catch i actually didn't i didn't see that
on my first read through this sorry that gives you a little indication of kind of like what
that baseline usage is is you know like right you need you need at least enough usage for 10 that three of them are going to make 50k in fees daily for
basically a month straight so this is a huge deal i think this is perhaps a groundbreaking
moment for token launches for crypto protocols i think this is the first time that I recall ever seeing an airdrop slash token
generation event tied to KPIs.
So first I want your reaction on the decision to tie to KPIs and then we'll go
into each of them specifically.
Yeah. So just reiterating the disclosure that I am a fluff holder.
Want to get that out there.
I think this is great. Every single token launch,
to my knowledge, has just been launched with high aspirations and ambitions for the respective
chain or ecosystem or network, because of course all these networks and teams want to do well.
But the incentive stuff has always been a little bit messy, right? You know,
you lock the tokens for yourselves and perhaps for some of the recipients, and you hope that
goes up over time. But this way is, I don't know, I mean, it sounds crazy to say almost like paradigm
shifting, like a little bit, right? It's creating a completely different precedent for how tokens are distributed to uh to users um and really is going to force like truly is going to force the network
and the team behind the network and the team behind the apps on the network to get users and
to get money on the chain or else nobody wins right and that feels, that feels kind of, I don't know, like how it should be.
You know, it's not normal in this space, but it feels like it should be normal
in the space because so frequently the token drops and then everything is over.
Uh, and they're trying to combat that. It's so much more akin to like an IPO and in the
traditional finance world where like, you don't just get to IPO year two of your business.
You actually have to show revenue growth. You actually have to be able to attract investors
who want to buy in to your company at a certain valuation. And to do that, you have to have
certain metrics behind it to make it appetizing. And that's just been so lacking in the crypto space so i love it i understand some
chrism specifically around the ico they did that if this wasn't laid out ahead of time and i did
not pour through the terms and conditions of that ico uh so i'm not necessarily even going to comment
on that i do understand some some pushback tied to that, but as someone who,
if you are rooting for the mega token to do well,
I think you have to be rooting for this.
Well, now if, when it launches,
it will have a foundation for success.
Right. Yeah. I mean,
I think the incentive alignment is really strong. I think the, you know, ICO outstanding, which you already pointed,
you could have some concerns or criticisms about.
I think the only other thing at this point in time, if you're an out,
if you're an external participant here is are these KPIs, you know,
are they truly an indicator of success or not? Right.
Like are they strict enough where to the point where this does signal some level of success?
Is $500 million of USDM issuance, is that actually some indicator of success or is that low?
Those are things that I don't have the answer to, but that's where I think you could find some other potential criticisms.
things that I don't have the answer to, but that's where I think you could find some other
potential criticisms. I'm certain the team, you know, fought long and hard about exactly which
one of these KPIs, what made the most sense, and what was necessary to find like a,
not a perfect level, but like a balance between success, but not so long that you wait forever and it never happens as well.
So it's interesting.
It's definitely interesting.
You still have the issue, you know, which is not too dissimilar from other token launches
where, you know, people want their tokens, right?
Fluffle holders want their tokens.
People who have participated in the ICO want tokens.
A whole host of others have incentives.
The apps have incentives to get the tokens as well.
Do you have that initial surge in rush?
I saw, I got a post from the Telegram,
I believe the Mega Mafia Telegram
that the mainnet is live right now
or earlier this morning, I think.
Oh yeah.
Do you have the initial surge just to hit these
and then everything, you know?
And that's where some of the distribution stuff, right.
They have to maintain for the tokens to continue coming out. Right.
So there's, there's a lot to see here.
There is. Yeah.
And I'm just going back to the, to the,
the folks angry about the ICO and I'm trying to put my,
so if you're angry about this from an about this because you're in the ICO,
you just wanted a quick flip
and you wanted to sell your tokens day one
and move on with your life.
Well, guess what?
What do you think those tokens
were going to be worth in this market?
I don't think you were going to get out
above water.
I think if they launched the token today,
it goes sub a billion.
With no activity on their main net net with nothing in the current state in this market they launched this it probably goes to like 70 700 million yeah and then ico you can't sell anyway so
i think if you want your investment to do well you need you should want the chain to do well
and have so like that this is why i have no sympathy for this group of people. Um, but I want to talk about these.
So 30 day time weight average of 500 million. So this is like, you know, we saw a blast.
People will put money on the chain. So this is going to be the easiest KPI, right? I don't,
I think they'll hit this likely within 45 days. sorry so i i just pulled up up the defi llama
for stable coin market caps okay um this would put them in the top 20 basically all right that kpi
so yeah i think you're right i think that is that's quite feasible um like that that would
be around names that you probably have never even heard of in terms of uh
stable coins first digital stable coin the solstice usx stable coin that's the solana protocol
um that those are in like the 500 million range i think they'll pretty easily be able to get there
um to get into the top 10 like around ripple ripple, R-USD, their stablecoin,
then you're looking at 3X that.
It's like 1.5 billion in market cap.
So yeah,
I think I'm with you.
I think that one's quite feasible.
Monad has 440.
That's not the stablecoin.
you're looking at,
I'm sorry,
I was looking at individual stablecoin market caps,
not stablecoins on the network.
Okay.
All right.
Yeah, so that's a little.
So it's a little different, but you would assume anyone who's put in stables is probably going to, there's going to be incentives to do it and use DM, right?
So I think it's pretty awesome.
But we agree that one's going to be the lowest hanging fruit.
10 mega mafia apps live with baseline usage.
Doable.
This third one is,
this is the big dog.
Three apps with greater than 50 K in daily fees.
So that's 1.5 million a month.
Let's go to,
let's go to fees.
And like crypto protocols right now.
Yeah.
I'm not sure how difficult that actually is.
I mean,
I'm thinking like from a DeFi perspective,
like again,
if people,
if people are really,
really thinking about just trying to get these tokens out the door and you have a strong commitment of capital up front that's going to be participating, I mean, like some of the DeFi protocols, 50K, I know that's a lot of money, but think about the fees you're racking up on massive trades constantly all day.
I don't know.
Yeah, it's actually not as bad as I thought.
So there's 100 protocols above that threshold. TokenWorks
has done 3 million
in fees in the past
month.
Wow.
Some of these apps I've never even heard of
are doing
this.
Notably, some other
bigger apps are not doing like crazy numbers it's like on those at 5.3
next to i guess i guess the good thing here is though it's not like they need one they need
three apps to do it at least yeah i didn't see any there wasn't a stipulation there about like the
differentiation of app right like categorically it doesn't it's not like a one d5 one no it just
says three three apps wait maybe we'll take tge seven days after any of these achieved
man i should have spent more time i thought they had to hit all three of these um
all right so so we think this is going to TGE in 45 days over under,
I'd say less.
Yeah.
37 days.
The fastest it can be is 37,
right?
Scroll up to the top one.
Cause this is issued.
right.
Right.
30 day time.
Yeah.
It's gotta be, I mean the baseline usage thing i would imagine that's at least a month right
so mega is coming it's going to come in mid-march so i think i've also seen the take that this is
perhaps buying them a little bit more time maybe the market will be a little bit better but we've
got you know mando's take is he doesn't think the market's going to necessarily be better like it'll we'll have some breathing room from the crash um hopefully we haven't
revisited the the 200 week moving average at that point um yeah but a fam i try to get bread on the
show this week so we can talk through some of this in more details i do think it is incredibly
interesting on the fees note i think the top meme mover of the weekend,
it was a quiet weekend in the trenches from what I saw.
But Banker was the story.
Banker effectively doubled from Friday to Sunday.
It went from like right around $50 million.
I mean, from Friday, I guess it was in the 40s after the sell-off.
It rebounded pretty quickly.
I saw it closer to that 55 range and all the way to 100.
So it 2X'd.
And I started seeing more folks in my timeline talking about it.
So I looked into their fees.
For the last two weeks, somewhere between 200K, 400K in daily fees.
in daily fees and a grand this is a small sample size when i look at this chart
And this is a small sample size.
if i do have the concern like oh is this did it have a one-time boom and now it's
kind of coming back to earth like we certainly have seen charts like this from
let's bonk from the believe app so i don't want to get ahead of my over my skis here by any means
yeah right below there tyler you can see those top 10 banker tokens by volume i mean that speaks
a bit to uh some of the surge here too right you got a mole book in there um i'm not sure what
that's okay that 24 hour volume it looks like but like those tokens in particular over the course
of the last week that was the narrative right that was the meta yeah as that rinses out i mean
banker's got to be able to reproduce a token another set of token launches from banker have
to try to rival that to maintain that fee level basically yeah so the volume just total volume
of tokens launched needs to go up the bet on on Banker is a bet that this Claude meta,
that this AI agent tokenizing meta is just beginning.
And that we will see another AI meta on chain.
And that it'll be done via the agents tokenizing to help pay for their own fees.
And I do get the case.
I think the employer, they shared some updates.
I didn't have a chance to really pour through these in detail over the weekend.
As I understand it, I believe they made some changes
that will generate more revenue streams for them.
I'll have to go back and look through the tweets.
They also made some foundational changes for their protocol.
I mean, notably Banker, like if you were around since AI Meta 1,
I mean, this is their second or third run.
So, I mean, they launched in late 2024.
Struggled to get traction immediately.
I think I was actually in this token at like a million,
maybe sub a million when it first came out.
And I have long since sold.
Disclosure, I did buy back in over the weekend.
Had their first run.
They got to $40 million.
Sold off in their second run.
I don't even think I was paying attention to this run over the summer
where they got to $100 million plus.
Sold all the way off again.
And then now coming back.
So this thing, it survives.
This is its third pump.
You don't see this that often in the crypto space,
a token that's able to sell off this many times and keep coming back.
So they certainly have my attention.
I'm not 100% confident that this AI meta is going to continue.
It does feel a little different than the prior ones, though.
I do think.
This is, the agents themselves are much more substantial.
This is not slot bots who reply in different tones
and different characters.
Like this is actually agents that can do things
and can build businesses.
Now, does it make sense for those agents to have chains,
to have tokens?
And do those tokens actually,
are they actually tied to revenue streams?
That's a different question.
And no one's really solved that yet,
which is why a lot of these AI tokens go straight up
and then they sell off
because the tokens are still effectively meme coins.
But I don't think the AI agent's meta is slowing down.
It's not even a meta, like this is the future.
Their interaction on chain
could still be classified as a meta.
I think it's more likely
that it's just beginning than that it's already run its course but i'm speaking as a backholder
yeah go take it all with a grain of salt well i think no i mean i think you're i think you're
totally right we've talked about it a few times you had um joseph shallamon from sharp link talk
about the agentic economy stuff.
Ethereum, say what you will about its token, but the network itself, they're working on
this stuff to make sure that AI and agents in particular, that means a lot of different
things, of course, right?
But are a core functional component of ethereum moving forward uh you've heard of course
people like cz and larry think and others talk about the mesh point of ai and crypto and just
they're kind of like made for each other right um i think if i was if i was paying attention i'm not
paying super close attention to the ai ethereum crossover now. But if I wanted to be paying attention
to where there could be some gains made on chain,
that would probably be the first place
I would look right now.
I'm with you.
I'm not sold on the meme component of it,
but there's going to be some winners probably
or more than a handful of winners
from the AI-Ethereum crossover.
I don't know what it looks like,
but there'll be some other additional winners.
In addition to things like Banker, that's a successful token.
Say what you will about recent price action or whatever.
To exist this long at 80 million or so, it's pretty successful.
To answer one of your prior questions from the show, what is there to be bullish on in crypto?
I actually think the intersection of AI and crypto is arguably the most exciting thing.
Yeah.
And it's still in its infancy, right?
Yeah.
The hard part is, you know, like for someone like me, right?
Like I'm just like so loosely connected to like what's happening in AI.
You know, I have it.
There's chats with folks.
You know, we're both in that like people that are much more dug in. I'm not there, you know,
like I don't know the next release of this thing and what it's going to allow us to do and how it's
going to connect to the ERC 404, you know, like whatever. But that's where there's opportunity.
I'm, you know, I'm being lazy, of course, in that regard. So somebody who's willing to put in the work, I definitely think that would be a fun – probably also a very fun area to be paying attention.
There aren't many – there's not much you can say about fun and crypto right now.
But yeah, maybe there.
It's time to learn Claude, buddy.
Yeah, exactly.
In terms of the meme speak.
All right.
Well, we went through our topics today.
We're not going to do yeet action,
but we will do the spins.
So what we're going to do this week,
since I'm unable to play,
is we are going to select a winner each day.
And then next week, probably on Monday's a holiday,
so maybe on Tuesday, we'll do a mega spins and everyone who's one will come in and they'll get their action.
So producer Charlie, if you're ready, let's let's pull up the wheel today and give it a spin.
All right, here we go.
Arizona Fred.
How about that?
Don't stay away handle.
I don't think I've ever seen that name come up on the wheel before.
I believe that is a new winner.
So Arizona Fred, don't stay away.
There he is.
Finally.
Yes, you've won, my friend.
So don't stay away.
Make sure you tune in next week to come in and actually collect your yeet action. We will be doing that again next week.
But congrats for winning.
I want to thank all of our listeners for tuning in here on this beautiful Monday.
Logie, thanks for joining us. Excited to chop it up with you here this week.
We will be back tomorrow at 10 a.m. Eastern. Until then, go make it a beautiful day.
Goodbye. Thank you. I'm going to go.
