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FOMO HOUR: Crypto Market Nuke and Rally
Recorded: June 23, 2025 Duration: 0:59:28Space Recording
Short Summary
In a dynamic discussion, crypto enthusiasts explored the recent military actions impacting market trends, the launch of a $1 billion Bitcoin acquisition company, and the anticipated arrival of alt ETFs. The conversation highlighted Bitcoin's resilience amidst volatility, the implications of the 'sell in May' strategy, and the burgeoning market for digital collectibles.
Full Transcription
Thank you. GM, GM, everyone.
Thank you for joining us here this morning.
We're going to start the show here in just a minute.
Still getting our speakers up on stage.
A few shout-outs while we wait.
Bongo, GM, M-Low, Castro, CJ, Zanzibar, GM, GM.
Who else?
We've got T-Block, Arno Kiss, Upper Midsy.
It's Brian, GM.
Folks, thank you for joining us.
Who else?
We've got Risma connor all right
see you guys r-e-r all right g-m-g-m a few minutes past the hour sims whenever you're ready let's kick Thank you. Good morning.
Good morning, everyone.
GM, GM, and welcome to another episode of FOMO Hour. Today is Monday, June 23rd, 2025.
And folks, it was a weekend where something indeed did happen. Saturday night, out of nowhere,
Trump bombs Iran with B-52s going after their nukes and in turn nuked our crypto prices. But we started rebounding last night and we are rebounding swiftly here this morning.
And we are wondering once again, is the bottom in or was the sell in May and go away crowd
correct again in 2025?
We're going to break it all down on today's show.
No, Froak, he is off this week.
Mando should be joining us. It's his birthday.
We'll see if he pops in. We've got Logan
on with us. Logan, GM, how you doing?
Hey, good morning, Tyler.
Doing well, all things considered.
It is brutally hot here
in PA. Market,
of course, not following in kind, but
very, very hot.
Hopefully, the market will correspond.
We are on the tail end of the three-day heat
wave where it was 90 95 every day and folks who are not familiar with chicagoland we generally
don't get this hot that's about as hot as it gets here and i'm even north of the city so it is a bit
extreme i think it's 98 later today.
Yeah, it's up there.
Logie, just quick sports side.
Game seven.
My hometown, Indianapolis Pacers.
What fell short last night.
What were your reactions to the game?
Yeah, I was rooting for the Thunder.
I have a really, I don't know.
I really, really like Jalen Williams a lot.
So I was rooting for the Thunder.
But of course, as a sports fan in general, it's just really heartbreaking.
Like the whole game felt over, even though the Pacers hung in.
The game felt over when Halliburton went down.
So that was disappointing.
But otherwise, feeling good.
Your boy Jalen Williams had a terrible first half.
He did bring it back in the second.
Yeah, he's good. had a terrible first half. He did bring it back in the second. Yeah.
Yeah, he's good.
I really like him as a player.
I like him too.
No particular reason, but.
My takes, so, quick side, if anyone's in the Chicago line,
I watched the game with a few friends at the DraftKings Sportsbook
outside Wrigley.
It's awesome.
It was my first time being there.
It's a Vegas-style sportsbook. Huge screens everywhere, full bar.
It was a great environment to watch the game.
I highly recommend that if anyone
is a sports fan in the Chicagoland
area.
Those first few minutes, Halberd looked
like he hit three
threes out of maybe four.
It looked like they really
came to play.
Oklahoma City really did not play that well across the game
So I feel like if he stays healthy, of course, it's a big if I think the pages were a real shot
But you're right basically as soon as he went down
there their odds were
We're looking pretty tough, but it was a fun season fun NBA playoffs overall
So we'll see what next year looks like. Wish Halberton a speedy recovery.
Folks, we are talking about more than the NBA finals on today's show. So what else are we
talking about? We're starting with the market report. What happened with the war latest over
this weekend? What does it mean for our crypto tokens? How are markets looking here on Monday
morning as we are opening up the markets? What was the fastest horse? We've got these alt ETFs.
It looks like they're coming soon, folks.
Just a matter of when and not if.
Circle does not stop.
It's up more again today.
We've got Anthony Papiano launching a new $1 billion Bitcoin acquisition company
that had been somewhat telegraphed.
We've got DFDB coming on chain.
Reddit, maybe using World ID.
NFT companies leaning into Telegram sales.
Correct.
Big three-day sellout and more.
Before we dive in, quick shout out to our partners.
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All right.
Well, with that, we'll get into the market report.
No Mando, so I'll do my best Mando impression.
Let's hit the music.
All right, folks.
Reminder, we will be doing this screen share live in Kik,
where we are now streaming every day.
So let's take a look at the board.
Bitcoin rallying here this morning, $102.4,
up 1.5% from yesterday, still down 4% on the week. ETH back over 23, up 5% on the day. XRP up 3%, $2.03. Solana up 6%, fastest horse of the majors, but still only at 137. We take a look at broader markets. So stocks
are green. Wow. I thought there would at least be some kind of a sellout or sell-off at least
the first few hours of the day, especially with how the crypto markets reacted over the weekend.
But no, stocks indeed are green and And it looks like oil is red.
Yeah, so I think that was another perhaps surprise here.
Of course, the news from over the weekend is on Saturday night,
I was out and about and saw the messages on Twitter
that the B-52s from the US, Trump had sent them.
They sent the Bunker Buster missiles down at 4- O nuclear facility, trying to effectively wipe out.
Off guard, to say the least, Trump went and addressed the nation, effectively after the stealth mission had been completed. Saw reactions from Iran in the last 36 hours or so.
I think the big threat from them was they were going to,
they voted to approve closing the Strait of Hormuz,
which is where 20% of the world's oil supply filters through,
though it looks like polymarket betters are saying there's more bark than bite on that one.
Only has it at a 23% chance of actually happening.
I think there's been a lot of folks looking for other global reactions from players like Russia, China.
I don't know that we've seen a whole lot of escalated rhetoric, at least just yet.
So I think that is still a factor that folks are looking at
here this week. What kind of escalations will take place? The U.S. has put troops globally
on higher alert, expecting some kind of retaliation from Iran here. As Israel-Iran
war has continued, both are still sending missiles at each other. As for the White House, the message out of Trump this morning has been oil-focused.
He's telling the Department of Energy to drill, and I mean now.
So he is going after the oil folks there.
Logie, first question for you, were you surprised?
Did this catch you off guard on Saturday?
Any other reactions to the global conflict here?
Yeah, not necessarily.
I should first just provide a small disclaimer.
I'm a little out of my depths here.
Just from almost a purposeful ignorance of not trying to pay super, super close attention to all the detention headlines from time to time.
But nothing really surprises me here.
I always feel like, or at least I have felt like for the last few months as things here, tariffs as well, right?
The headlines are seemingly always a little bit.
I think you use the term more bark than bite, right? The headlines are all seemingly always a little bit, I think you use the term more bark
than bite, right? So that's how I've felt a little bit here. Of course, we took a pretty,
you know, real action. So you can't really call that probably bark. But as for what, you know,
transpires in the next few days, months, I'm hoping it's easing, you know, I hope it is more
of the bark than the bite. And we sort of refocus
on whether it's finding peace, it's finding whatever the actual outcome is for all parties
that's in best interest for all involved. I'm hoping we move towards that in some way or another
and things don't escalate further. Because I think the escalation, the unfortunate part of
the escalation is just the increased volatility.
Nobody really knows what's going to happen.
I kind of like being bored in the summer
and just, you know,
I'm okay with Bitcoin chilling at $103,000,
you know, and not worrying about the volatility.
Yeah, this was the opposite of being bored.
A lot indeed has been happening.
I think part of the confusion perhaps from the just like the
broader base is what did this mean for the u.s is the u.s entering the war i've seen that rhetoric
my read is it was kind of an enter and exit already and that this was the sole effort that
they had planned and there really isn't anything else. We, of course, will see if that continues.
But the odds of a U.S. invasion in Iran only at 16%.
So markets are pricing that here still pretty low.
Odds of a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal still at 36% in 2025.
What else is interesting?
I think the biggest next focus is on regime change markets are pricing
an iranian regime fall in 2025 only a 30 chance though coming out as supreme leader at 56 so that
has been moving up a fair amount it has been interesting i think more than more so than previous years to follow the war live on
prediction markets right like we have all these various markets where you can see exactly how
how folks are are betting on the outcomes of these have you not to play on the spot have you
participated in it uh participated with any because to me there's like a there's like a small moral dilemma about you
know actually putting a wager behind something here and rooting for it in some way uh it's a
little it's a little weird but you're right i mean this is where this is where we're at now uh pop
culture politics everything in the world is real time on chain it's yeah It's just the state of where we're at.
I'm not the morality police.
I'm done playing that game.
But these markets are not really for me.
I'm not really super interested
in betting on war outcomes at this point.
Also, I just don't feel like I have any kind of an edge.
So I wouldn't be good at it.
I came on the show last week
and I was kind of pointing to the taco trade,
the Trump always chickens out.
And my gut read last week was that the longer this was going to be stretched out,
the less likely the U.S. was to take any action.
And then Saturday night, we got the surprise.
So it does look like perhaps Trump telegraphed the move
and he kind of walked it back to make it look a little more uncertain. I guess it's kind of my
read on things. Tying this back to the crypto market, I mean, it really impacted majors over
the weekend. So, I mean, a week ago
on Monday, Bitcoin's 108K
kind of sold off across the week
as the war escalated.
But then, what was it?
Yes, Sunday.
We went as low as 90,
yeah, 98, 98.5
on Bitcoin.
ETH, how low did ETH go?
It went into the 2100s.
I don't know if it actually went below 2100.
Yeah, it looks like right around 2133 or so.
Pretty brutal sell-offs across the board.
And of course, we're rebounding swiftly.
Bitcoin backed up 1022 right now.
It's already up 3.5% off the bottom.
Were you surprised at the sell-off?
Or is it just kind of hard for the course
yeah i think it's a little bit par for the course right like we have not bucked the trend of um
i don't know like what so gold went higher i think right like we still haven't bucked that trend of
it is the uh you know the reserve asset is the like i't know, I'm struggling to find the right word for
Tyler, but you know, it's just not moving in line with some of the narratives that have been driven
around Bitcoin for a really long time, right? It doesn't ever seemingly do that. So this does not
surprise me. All that to say, this does not surprise me in any way. Not like fearful though,
in any, in any way on my side, like I said, I'm kind of okay with the chop. I'm
not super active in anything right now, but I continue to buy Bitcoin and just kind of feel
okay about it. So you get these smaller dips or more severe dips. This was a pretty,
I don't know, not super, super severe in terms of crypto volatility, but we went from 105 when I
was writing on Friday, like around 105 to 98 in like a day and a half.
That's pretty notable.
So yeah, I just kind of feel okay adding to the stack there.
Yeah.
I guess I forgot that we were at 106 on Friday.
Yeah.
Myriad has a prediction market up that I wrote about in my Myriad Moves piece that was, you
know, is it bitcoin 115 or 95 first
and it was kind of like right in the middle it was that it was at 105 when i was writing about it
on friday morning of course uh but now this is this still becomes an interesting market here
right because we didn't we didn't get through there i don't know where the support lines are
anything like that but yeah um you know we didn't breach quite that. I don't know where the support lines are or anything like that, but you know,
we didn't breach quite that low.
And you know,
if tensions are easing and there isn't any weird,
you know,
new headline,
I could very much see one 15 being in play before 95.
I was on that side firmly at one 15,
but I mean,
we hit 98.
So now like the 95 K side objectively has to be favored,
especially if you look at this one month chart right now. I mean, we hit 98. So now the 95K side objectively has to be favored,
especially if you look at this one-month chart right now.
I was talking to a good friend on the way down to the sports book last night,
a sharp guy, but not deep in crypto.
He's in other sectors.
And I was telling him about how Bitcoin and crypto majors had sold off after the the us bomb and he said like point blank i
couldn't string together two sentences for why bitcoin would sell off in that situation
and i'm not really sure i can't either right because like in theory a gold would move up
on on that on the headline like that and it right? And then even if you have the argument
that it's trading more like levered tech stocks,
stocks are green.
So what is it that derives these actions
that makes everyone so shaky
with Middle Eastern conflicts when it comes to Bitcoin?
And I don't have my finger on the pulse of it,
is it because so much is held in the Middle East?
Is it Middle East or selling us off?
I am very curious for someone smarter than me to help answer that question
because I don't have the answer to that.
Well, I'm not the guy either because I don't have a great answer for it.
As you noted, I couldn't come up with a super coherent reason as to why because for so
long we've been telling ourselves that uh it shouldn't do that right like it should do the
exact opposite of what it did that's one of the big narratives here is that it's gonna it's you
know supposed to be kind of this digital gold right and and others you know people smarter than
i am people that are trying to predict the price, people like ARK Invest, et cetera, like they're using that as a rationale for bullish price
predictions, like the digital gold narrative. Yet, you know, in these moments in which it very
much could stand out as a digital gold, it doesn't really ever seem to. And to be clear, I still
believe in that narrative on a long-term time horizon. Yeah, same here. Inflation hedge, store value.
I firmly believe it.
But it is on a near-term time horizon.
It is still surprising.
Every time we get these dips.
And it certainly caught me off guard.
Because I was actually DCA in some Bitcoin last week.
In that 103 to 105 level, I liked that entry.
And still, I mean, it's just down a couple percent
from here but didn't see i really thought 102.5 103.5 was going to hold looked like we were having
higher lows there for a bit but we lost it um did you see the just the absolute mayhem across
alts and memes so soul went down to like 130 fart coin how low did fart coin get let's see let's go down the list so
far coins at 92 cents right now i want to say it went down to like below 80. it looks like it
tapped 80 cents twice maybe went into the 70s briefly hyperliquid the hype token went all the
way down it whipped to 30 basically and now rebound pretty swiftly it's
already back to to 36 so it's been carnage did you make any trades in any reactions to some of
these other albums now i'm again not surprised like if bitcoin is gonna swing down uh as violently
as it did you know i'm not shocked at all that far coin and hype are kind of falling in line with it
or you know even underperforming it um i did not make any active trades though i do have a small
dca on for far coin um right now so i'm uh adding to that bag it's a very very small bag i know i've
talked about it on here before like kicking myself myself. I can remember the show in Peru I did when it was at like $200 million.
And then we did a show like a week later and it was at $500 million.
The entire time I've said I should own more FarCoin.
I'm trying to take advantage of it and actually make that happen.
Should things eventually go up, I feel confident FarCoin might be one that goes up with it.
I'm still a very strong Farcoin bull long-term time horizon.
I will say objectively, this chart makes me think
perhaps we were going to get one more leg lower
after a recovery rally.
That's just my gut read looking at this.
The other chart, man, look at this hype chart.
This looks pretty damn good, I got to say.
Anyone who got in on that dip, they're on that dip. I saw the Clemente video.
I was not actively paying attention to like, you know, day or hour to hour things over the weekend.
But it was shared in a chat.
And very funny about the whole hype shenanigans and his involvement there.
Indeed.
So fear and greed at 37.
Pretty wide move,
especially with Bitcoin at 102.
And I'll ask this question
and then we'll move on to some more of the news.
Were the sell in May and go away crowd right?
Were they correct?
What was the price when we entered May?
I don't actually even remember.
Let's take a look.
I shared the meme coin chart on twitter this
morning it had definitely peaked uh in may let's see may 28 27th we were at 109.9 it's basically
110 then may 29th 108.7 it kind of sold off the next few days well Depending on where in May you sold,
yeah, you were probably right.
Yeah,
okay, so yeah.
Yeah,
I mean, they were probably right.
I don't expect, I don't know.
I mean, there's this poll, like this
presidency, this administration, all the regulation
stuff, there's so
many potential catalysts it feels
like that could come yeah at a moment's notice but at the same time there's so many things that
he could just send out on truth social that you know it's it's crazy it's wild i mean i guess if
you're like trading on volatility this is like probably a dream scenario but if you're somebody
like me that isn't actively trading this stuff and kind of just wants price to go up you know that's probably a lot of people you just want
price to go up and you know maybe in a consistent and gradual manner taking the stairs up it doesn't
feel so great to every day but i think people want to sell a man go away because they just want to
relax this summer and do other things and touch grass and not to monitor this and it's just been
total onslaught 24 seven media and new announcements and
all of a sudden it has been a lot.
I'm going to stick to my guns and still think we have a fun summer.
Joyful June is looking less joyful folks.
I have to admit that.
And I'm not a hundred percent sure that we are going to,
in the next seven days,
totally recapture the joy that June started.
But I'm still optimistic for July and August.
A couple of catalysts on the near-term time horizon.
For one, if this conflict ends.
And Udi, who has been pretty spot on for this conflict, the Tepper Wizards founder, Bitcoin OG,
and I think it's come out that he was in the IDF,
the Israel Army, previously in his life.
He's been doing a lot of analysis on this war.
He basically, his take is it's going to be over in 12 days.
He said global peace in 24 months.
So he thinks there's going to be continued conflicts off and on across the next two years.
I don't think that's world peace in 12 days by any means.
But if this conflict is over in 12 days, that's a potential catalyst for the summer.
We also have the 90-day pause on those tariffs.
It's coming to ahead here soon as well.
So whatever the Trump administration decision is there,
if it's going to be another 90-day delay,
that could be a temporary catalyst as well.
And then the headlines that we're getting on a day-to-day basis,
more and more of these companies spinning up
to buy our beloved magic internet tokens.
So today, Anthony Pompeiano, $1 billion merger to create ProCap Financial, a new Bitcoin.
He's calling it native financial services company.
It's effectively a Bitcoin acquisition vehicle.
They are going to buy up to $1 billion worth of Bitcoin.
They've already raised $750 million, massive raise.
The ticker is going to be CCCM.
And they went on to say
that they will also be developing products and services
to produce revenue and profit
from the Bitcoin on their balance sheet over time.
So we've been talking about this new trend for months now.
I think nothing new.
We had the DFTV team come on the show last week.
I do think this last paragraph is the most interesting.
I've also seen people, it raised concerns with folks.
But, I mean, the whole reason to buy one of these companies versus the underlying asset is if you believe in their financial engineering effectively.
If you think they will be able to outperform the underlying asset via some innovation.
So I'm curious for your thoughts.
Are you racing out to buy CCCM?
Or just brought our thoughts on this trend.
Yeah, I'm not racing out to buy really any of them at this point in time.
But actually, the conversation you had with DFDV and Dan Kang, Invest kang investor relations i wrote an article about after re-watching the show um and i've been following
and reporting on dfdv pretty closely uh which i know of course is not a bitcoin treasury vehicle
but it was actually it was really eye-opening for me because i think i had been in the camp
tyler and we've talked about this before that like this was a worrying trend to me. You know, it felt like a lot of people,
you know, kind of packaging up shit.
You know, of course, I don't want to call Bitcoin that
because I'm a holder and believe in it.
But like, just packaging up all these, you know,
little financial loophole-y, weird debt construction things
to be able to acquire Bitcoin.
And it was just stacking up and eventually a bubble would burst
and it'd be really bad for everybody involved. And I think that's a pretty commonly held view at this point in time. There
are much smarter people who can, of course, articulate why it's so bad, much better than I
can. But I got to listen to Dan on that show. And the one thing that it did for me was it,
it opened my eyes at like some of, some of the organizations doing this are doing it very intelligently and have like a very clear plan uh in the way that they're going
about things you know to acquire solana and to be the vehicle that is doing it most efficiently
and more efficiently than you and i can do it trading meme coins and other garbage tactics
right on chain that that makes sense to me and it didn't feel you know maybe it's just a
fantastic uh part of investor relation and communication strategy but it didn't feel
scammy at all in any way uh and that was actually that that felt really good to me to hear that uh
got me bowled up on them a little bit uh as well so i'm i'm not writing off any of these companies, maybe at a face value as I was before.
That's all I can really say. I would need to dig in, but I do think they need to do more than just
accumulate. Like Dan was saying, like micro strategy has done this thing. They're the
behemoth linebacker. It's tough to do that thing. Now you gotta be a little more creative. You gotta
be a little bit better at accumulating in a way that is not just
stacking on debt basically.
And that does have me a little more interested and actually feeling a little
bit better overall about the trend than I was last week.
Yeah.
I think the consensus is that this new trend is the most likely to cause the
next bear market that we're going to see some of these treasury companies go bust, become forced sellers. I'm not sure that I'm going to take the other side
of that. I do think that's like a broad blanket statement. I think we will certainly see some
have pockets of success. I don't know if that's Anthony Papiano or not. I do think betting on
what you think is the leading horse, perhaps in each of the tokens is an
interesting strategy so if you think that's micro strategy for bitcoin if you think that's joe lubin
and sbet for eath if you think it's dftb for solana uh perhaps pick one of the hype companies
that just came out i do think that's an interesting way to perhaps build a basket if you want to be in
that camp of folks who are pivoting from buying alts to buying stocks, which I'm seeing more
and more folks call for
on the timeline, I think that is one way
to think about it.
I don't know Anthony Papiano super
well. I've been casually following him
since I got deeper into crypto Twitter.
I mean, he was
I would have classified him as a CT
voice in 2021. He was talking
about Bitcoin price action.
He was an early one.
I don't think he necessarily is associated now with it,
but I mean, the guy, even like him or hate him,
he's got 1.7 million followers.
He's built a pretty successful brand.
So I do think he is likely an intelligent person.
Now, I don't know if that translates
to being able to operate an
innovative Bitcoin acquisition vehicle. So we will certainly see. But doubtful that he is going to be
the last one to do this. I think that much is clear. But man, the stock biz, The crypto stock biz is a good one. That is a fact.
278 for CircleStock. It was at 260 before I
clicked refresh. It was at 240
on Friday, up 20%.
It is now up
another 15%. I joked about
this yesterday that rest assured, whatever is going to happen
to your beloved alternative cryptocurrencies, CircleStock
is going to be up another 10-15%.
Yes, it is. Tap the sign.
Once again, this thing is just unstoppable.
Arguably the biggest fumble,
one of the biggest fumbles of my professional trading career
is actively following this IPO
and just totally sitting on my hands
and actually funding it.
Not even just saying being sidelined,
but taking the
opposite side.
Shorts are being blown out.
I think trying to be as short on this token
is just...
I don't know. Use your brainpower
elsewhere, is my take
on this.
This is a respect
the pump if I've ever seen one.
Let's play this out again
for folks who have
maybe not been following this trade. IPO'd at 31, but I think it was buyable, what, like 70 to 80,
maybe 80 to $100 range those first couple of days. Basically kind of grinded up. It did have
like a week of consolidation. And then I guess really since the Genius Act passed, that's really where things ramped up.
So on June 13th, 10 days ago, it opened at 108, went to 130.
Then it was 150s.
And then, man, it's up another almost 100% in the past week.
Just absolutely wild price action.
Now at $67 billion market cap.
I'm pretty sure that's what Coinbase stock was at
just a few days ago.
So Coinbase is up as well.
So it's up.
It's also following Circle,
I think post-Genius Act,
Coinbase stock might be another one
that's been benefiting.
It's been outperforming crypto majors itself.
It's hanging out at 78 billion,
but they're basically one-to-one at this point. Curious if you have any reactions to Circle It's been outperforming crypto majors itself. It's hanging out at $78 billion.
But they're basically one-to-one at this point.
Curious if you have any reactions to Circle and or if you had to pick one of these two.
Jeez.
Who would you pick?
Man, it's kind of weird to not pick Coinbase
given just like the connection there.
It feels like in terms of optionality
coinbase should have a leg up but i i don't know i i don't know that i can can draw a strong case
to either as to like why one would go up over the other um from here on out as far as this whole
saga goes i i don't i'm kind of speechless as well because there was right you
remember like as you as you noted around the ipo talks like 31 we then we heard it was over
subscribe but then you're like okay over subscribe right sure maybe at two x's and then it three x'd
in like minutes on it halted like nine times on its opening trading day um but then you're right
you had like a week to buy it from around a hundred dollars there might have been a one dip
day maybe two dip days in there like small dips i don't know what to say man at a certain point
it does feel like i you know i've been just kind of following along casually in some chats where
people are talking about when to short circle.
It does feel like at some point in time, like, okay,
it can't keep going up, right?
But it's a dangerous game.
You know, we're kind of bringing the trenches on chain here,
quite literally.
Well, I can answer that question.
I can't continue going up.
So Scott Bessent called for stable coins at $3.7 trillion by the end of the decade Is Circle at 3.7 trillion yet?
Well
The other thing here
Maybe this is a segue as well
Circle is not the only stablecoin company
What are the other ones?
Well I mean
You have Tether and then of course you have
Things like PayPal have their own stablecoin, right?
But then I guess the secondary piece of this is other companies, JP Morgan, etc., whatever, they're going to do their own stablecoins.
3.7 trillion. Okay. Besant.
Is circle going to be the only proxy for all $3.7 trillion worth of value that
trades on the public market? If so, then of course, you know,
it feels like circles go in a whole lot higher, but you know, this is,
this is one of those things we've talked about this before,
like a Coinbase versus just owning your bank and would you custody here or
there or whatever? Like, where's the moat? Where's the moat for circle?
If regulation gets passed and people can generate their own stable coins and your banks all have their own stable coins yeah and this is the all the things i was saying as i was a bear wearing
my circle bear hat and now i'm just throwing all those takes out i think it is just uh everything
i said it was just a tongue-in-cheek play. But like
I said it for a reason.
Like no one is viewing Visa
as a bet on stablecoins.
No one is viewing
JP Morgan stock as a bet on
stablecoins. You can't bet on Tether
right now.
No one's
viewing Coinbase as a bet on stablecoins.
This is it.
I get you.
And I have,
I have no ill will towards circle or like anything weird.
I use USDC as my stable coin of choice when I'm like,
you know,
when I'm stabling or,
you know,
doing things on chain.
but I don't know.
I mean,
can it just really keep going up?
Like you imagine that the other stable coin companies or even those who are adjacent would
be looking at this and be like, Oh shit.
Like this is an opportunity.
Yeah.
A couple of takeaways here.
So one, I think I saw a comment that circle is stealing the ETF bid.
That's an interesting take and it does look to be accurate.
I want to make sure this data is correct,
but if this is correct, is this right?
The Bitcoin ETFs had
no flows on Thursday?
It was closed.
It was closed Thursday.
Only $6 million on Friday.
This is actually a pretty decent inflow streak
for Bitcoin.
Not a whole lot of takeaways there.
Ethereum did definitely slow down after what was a very nice run up there into joyful June.
This is when the ETH bulls were very joyful.
Did half a billion in inflows in a handful of days there.
As June started ramping up, ETH runs to $28.75
and then just smacked all the way back down.
And now the bid's already gone back to zero on the ETFs.
So that is going to be another interesting one to follow here.
And I had another direction where I was going to go with that since lost.
The other aspect of the ETFs is which new ones are coming down the pike.
So Eric Bakunas, ETF expert, shared the odds on Friday,
and it looks like they're saying 90 to 95%.
Basically across the board for Litecoin, Solana, XRP, Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot,
HBAR, and Avalanche by the end of 2025. So massive favorites to get all of these ETFs.
There's too many ETFs. I think it's part two like which of these do you think is the most interesting or will be like the most the biggest beneficiary of having an etf product can you have
too many etfs i think it's just law of diminishing returns after a point right like
yeah basically this is signal that there will be an etf for everything ever
there will be a product
that you can you know buy this stuff on change or sorry not on chain but uh well yeah potentially
but um you know via the exchange traded fund option you'll be able to buy it in your traditional
markets and equities whatever i don't think it matters as much moving forward you know every
single one to me is like a little bit less of a big deal
now with that being said because these would be like the first alt-ish ones right you know
whether you consider ethanol or not like um these might matter a little bit the ones that i think
it matters most for would be solana ripple uh and maybe even dogecoin yeah um i don't think it matters too much for Cardano or Polkadot or HBAR.
And that's not to take anything away from those ecosystems
or whatever's happening there.
Like Avalanche and Sui are interesting to me as well,
just because my proximity to on-chain activity,
those are places where things appear to be happening
and there appear to be some interest.
And I see the etfs and the approval
of them as you know just uh another catalyst right for potential movement up and for potential
legitimization as well which gets is a murky word to use here alongside like dogecoin cardana like
dogecoin is literally a meme coin you know i mean like it's got its own etf so it's weird to say
that it's legitimized via the ETF approval,
but in a way.
But it is.
I actually think that's where I was going to go.
I think the Dogecoin ETF is the most interesting on this list.
And if that catches a bit,
it could be a potential catalyst for the next leg up of a meme cycle.
And then now, like the big thing for any any meme is when's the Binance listing,
when's the Coinbase listing? If Dogecoin
ETF is successful,
then it's like, when's the ETF listing?
You get another carrot to
choose after. Yeah, well, actually, those effects have
sort of worn off a little bit, right?
Like, that was, like, a thing for a while, but
it's the same thing. As you add more tokens,
as there's more options
and places to trade the you
know in that economy is becomes more robust the effect on the listings becomes limited that's
where i yeah i do think you could see it in the early going here you really definitely could see
an etf listing bump i agree and disagree so i think where i think the etfs can be impactful
is this new wave of financial managers who are just
starting to dip their toe into crypto investing and are starting to do one
to 2% of client portfolios.
And they're probably starting with Bitcoin.
And if they're going to diversify,
they're probably going to diversify into ETH.
But I can absolutely see a percentage of them starting to diversify across a broader basket of all these. And I still
am in the camp that we are at the first inning of financial managers investing into crypto via ETFs.
And I do think that will continue for years and decades. So that's where you can start to get that
infinite TWAP. I think the infinite TWAP, of course, is going to be much smaller into a Dogecoin ETF than it is into
Bitcoin. But
it will be greater than zero
most likely. So
that is perhaps
the bull case for these. But of course,
the more you have,
if you've got hundreds of these, the
trickier it gets.
All right, folks. Looks like we might have the birthday
boy on live with us.
Hi, guys.
GM, how you doing?
Sorry about being late.
I'm great. How are you guys?
Just you two?
Yeah, just us two. For Oak's out this week.
So we've just been here
with our jaws on the floor looking at the
circle stock chart and just
trying to wrap our heads
around it but that and our beloved uh internet coins are starting to to recover a bit on on the
market open curious uh if you have any high level takes or i think the biggest thing that was
surprising to me and logan i chatted through, was that stocks didn't even open at all.
There was no stock dip.
They just flat opened green.
Coming after the big sell-off we had
and just trying to wrap our heads around the question,
like why does Bitcoin and alt,
why do they respond so negatively to these conflicts
versus gold versus stocks because it doesn't make a ton
of sense on paper but curious if you have any broad reactions yeah i think that the i think
it probably speaks to the bar base at different time time zones so i think when tradify markets
are open they think of Bitcoin as digital gold.
And when the weekend's just open, we all think that we're trading the NASDAQ. And so as soon as we open, suddenly you have a bunch of people who are like, well, the obvious thing to buy here is gold and digital gold.
So Bitcoin always rallies.
And we freak out about it.
Like, I think we think that, like, a really bad situation is still bad for Bitcoin.
And that's not what the weekday buyer base thinks.
So you get this rally.
It doesn't necessarily always lead over to alts.
Like, alts just kind of, kind of bounce because bitcoins bounce necessarily.
But yeah, I think that's basically what I see happening at the moment.
Let's be honest, why was this so bad for crypto in any sort of way? It doesn't really make sense
that it fundamentally should have meant anything
i think we said that i mean i remember saying that on the weekend uh on friday at least like
if we saw i didn't think that anything that would take us below 100k we did briefly go below 100k
to be fair and i didn't think there was anything for ease or hype which are which are the things
i was looking to buy um that would be taken considerably lower.
We did have a different majority of those,
but I had that ladder of buying HYPE all the way down to 30,
which hit really nicely.
And then ETH, to be fair, ETH buys haven't really bounced as much,
but the...
...us freaking out over very, very little. I continue to think the trade here is to own Bitcoin, Py, ETH, and Aave, and to short all the rest of the crap,
all the the the rest of the crap which which um which is like all the high ftv altcoins which
are not really moving anywhere um and that that trade for me continues to do pretty well
let me put it that way and i'm growing it because i just feel like that's the trade
it because i just feel like that's the trade interesting so i'm glad i got back into hype
because i remember i told my hype at 30 38 and now i'm back in i think 32.3 average um
and if it goes that low i think i'll buy some more and then if any of these other
alts rally aggressively i think they're they're probably not in a great spot.
Like I'm not that bullish on altcoin season still happening.
Doesn't look great out there.
Sol's at 135.
I mean, that feels just kind of shockingly low
for just where the state of things.
Sol is a difficult one to judge, in my opinion,
because I do still think that Sol isn't going anywhere.
But there's some of these other ones, which I think...
I think you're in for a period here where Bitcoin could very easily stay
in 100 to 110k range now for a while.
I reckon...
I don't know if we're going back to all-time highs that quickly now
after all that.
That caused, I think, quite a bit of pain,
and we'll see how it shakes out.
I don't think the stuff over the weekend...
The stuff over the weekend was literally the most bearish kind of thing that could have happened, right?
You had a strike on the nuclear facilities followed by talk of closing the straight-up or moves.
Bitcoin didn't even go below, well, hasn't really stayed below 100K.
But I also think that we're now in this sort of chop
range which
I think will persist
Do you think the conflict ending
breaks us out of the chop?
Or is this going to be just we'll find more
reasons and now it's probably going to be summer
chop until
Q3, Q4, our new
catalyst emerges?
Yeah I think it's more likely we're in for a bit of a chop here.
Like, global liquidity is going higher.
And I still like ETH, and I still like hype, and I still like Bitcoin.
But I'm not, I can't tell you when we're going to come out of this now.
It felt like we've had a couple of shots at breaking out,
and we just hit a high.
On Bitcoin, we did just hit a lower high and a lower low.
That's not something that you just immediately break out of.
So I think that that points more to CHOP more than anything.
The sell may go away crowd feels stronger
by the day. Enjoy your summer.
Raul Paul, he's
doing his part to remind
us of the global M2 liquidity
chart. He shared it again yesterday.
Though we did
we finally kind of
sunk below, which really hadn't happened
in a few months.
But of course, showing that we're not just going to follow this perfectly to the T.
This chart, I think, was the primary hopium for Joyful June for a summer pump beyond anything else.
But I think what's notable, and what you said, and I'm seeing it too, is like the difference in the eight to five,
like the market,
when the markets are open,
the bid on Bitcoin
and some of the other majors
versus like the after hours
versus the closing,
it does feel like it's two different markets.
Now,
and like the institutions
just kind of show up and buy most days.
And then on the weekend,
it's like, I don't know if it's crypto whales unloading clips when they feel like they're amidst volatility
and global conflict or what.
But I think that was a decent explanation of what we've been seeing.
So we'll continue to follow it.
I did think it was notable
when Kobe over the weekend was asking
what non-angel
crypto-related investments
to make on a five-year time horizon.
I'll try to find the tweet.
I think you responded with
CryptoPunk as your answer.
Yeah, I just think that if I was to own one thing over the next five years,
it's tough to argue against that.
I think you have to think about something that has a really strong moat,
if you're talking about over five years, right?
Like a really strong moat that will be there for a while.
I think CryptoPunk has got that really strong moat.
I don't know if it performs as well as the other things that he mentioned but i do think it's it's a pretty good
guess that and like x copy editions i would say are a pretty good guess about stuff that could
last for a long time um the the other ones that were kind of mentioned,
which I thought was interesting with some of the, um,
some of the privacy chains,
which people point to coming back a bit like Monero.
And,
we've invested in Tari,
which is another one coming out,
but I just think that that's an interesting narrative that people are pointing to coming back.
And I know Anson mentioned WorldCoin.
I think there's been a softening of approach to that in general
just in recent years, I think, recent months,
just in the idea that it's kind of unique.
I don't know if it's unique enough.
Let me put it that way.
But I do think it's pretty interesting to see that.
That has something come back.
I honestly don't know if there's much,
there's like a huge amount much else.
I think you could say something like Tron
as a play on just like the other half of crypto,
like the sanctions half,
like continuing to see very decent volume and Tron dominates,
I think a lot of that activity,
whether you turn a blind eye to it or not,
like Tron,
the majority of Tron's activity comes from stable coins,
from sanctioned countries basically.
And I felt like that's an interesting one over multiple years.
Like it's got a good moat there now.
And Justin Sun has managed to position himself as untouchable almost.
Like it's very strange, but at least the next four years,
I feel like he's kind of untouchable.
He's kind of untouchable.
And then that's honestly kind of it.
Like you may pick something like a tier one defy, like an Aave, I think.
Which has like, but I don't sit there and go like there's a lot else there,
which is very, very unique
and tough to touch, basically.
Yeah, I agree.
The five-year bet makes this so hard.
And part of it is if folks aren't familiar
with what a lot of these altcoin charts
look like on five years,
they can be very brutal.
So if you pick the wrong one,
you can lose quite a bit.
DC Investor kind of summarized a lot of them.
I think he has SBED in there,
which I think he's probably the only one,
effectively the microstrategy of ETH,
which we talked about on Friday.
Interesting.
I still haven't made a move on that.
Top tier generative art is very difficult
because I feel like for most people,
it's like, okay, well, what do you buy?
You buy Squiggle, I guess, is like the index um or if a denza I suppose I think that's a little trickier
of a play uh crypto punks and x copy are would be at the top of my nft list 100 and then maybe
Sam Spratt is in there as well even though i think sam sprat is probably still a
riskier bet the next copy i think objectively just because he's still a bit newer um i don't
know if i throw a day i'm not throwing a day in there with s bet i think one e bet is probably
enough for me and i think world coin is interesting though. It's still part of the early flood on WorldCoin was the
low float high FTV,
right? Are we just looking past
that because of the dominance
of OpenAI
in Sam Altman at this point
in time? I mean, this is
wow.
I think that's partly it, yeah.
I don't know, man. I don't know, man.
I don't know.
It's tricky.
I think it's a tricky one.
I wouldn't have picked that.
It's not cheap.
Logan, any reactions to that question?
Any direction you would have headed?
No, I think what's been discussed here is pretty close.
I like the addition of the DeFi, whether that's Aave or like if you have an affinity for Solana,
like maybe that is Camino or, you know, Jito or something like that.
If you really think those are, sorry, Solana as an ecosystem is like up only from here on out.
I do like the addition of a DeFi protocol or some connection to a DeFi token.
WorldCoin is still interesting to me.
I don't think it would have been like,
it wouldn't have made like my list of like first two or three things off the top of my head.
And Mando mentioned, I mean, it may not be as unique as we perceive it to be,
but it's like the very clear narrative winner here, right?
As far as like proof of humanity, AI type thing goes.
And I think that trend is only going to continue to grow.
Like the wanting to be able to differentiate between,
which people have been championing about blockchain for a long time, right?
It's not like WorldCoin's unique in that aspect,
but the championing of like,
hey, we want to be able to ensure authenticity,
humanity, et cetera,
I think it has a pretty big stranglehold on that.
And so if that does truly, truly grow,
I don't know where else I would be placing my bets aside from WorldCoin.
Yeah, and we saw this quick on that note,
we saw the headline this weekend,
Reddit is considering using WorldCoin
in their Orb system to verify users.
I do think user verification will something
we're both bullish on logan we were chatting about it that is a trend that will only continue
we see like x right now the state of twitter and reply agents is absolutely brutal i think it's
ruining the app for a lot of folks uh so like some kind of a human verification system i think
will largely be welcomed it'll be more and more important.
I think folks push back on the anonymity aspect of this.
I was looking into it.
So what they say they do,
if you take them at their word,
is that they scan your retina.
They do some decryption,
hashing it behind the scenes,
and then they delete it.
So they effectively do a one-time verification
and then they remove your user data.
So I actually think it is fairly anonymous
and interesting way to potentially do it.
We'll see if it catches on.
I feel like this is one from a trading perspective
where you can be bullish on the product,
but not on the token. Right.
And I mean,
this thing's still 60% to unlock and it looks like a chart that has ongoing unlocks at least to me.
So not,
not the best.
Well,
folks,
we're almost at the hour mark.
One big story we didn't have a chance to dig into is the telegrams,
these telegram sticker sales now nearly 10 million
dollars so logan we might have to put a pin in this one yeah and talk about it more at length
on tomorrow's show because i want to know like what the what is going on here because i see
pudgy penguins with two million dollars in sales and that's actually pretty interesting
uh to me so i am curious so we'll try to dig into that more on tomorrow's show. Then, shout out
to OSF and
the Rect Homies. Selling out
7-Eleven three days in a row.
Not an easy thing to do.
Congrats to him.
Hopefully, he gets to rest
a bit. Coming after what I'm sure
was a whirlwind weekend.
Then,
he'll get back to work, I'm sure.
So I'd love to get back on the show.
I know he's super busy these days, but I want to hear about these 7-Eleven parties
because they looked like they were pretty fun,
and, of course, they were very successful.
As for that, I think that's going to be it for today's show.
I want to thank our listeners.
As always, I want to thank my co-hosts, Mandel and Logan.
Thank our partners, Kraken and
Wallet Connect folks. We will be back tomorrow
at 10 a.m. Eastern. Until then,
go make it a beautiful day.
Goodbye. Thank you.
Host
Degenz Live
from
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