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FOMO HOUR: Crypto Rallies and Polymarket Makes US Debut
Recorded: Oct. 2, 2025 Duration: 0:59:49Space Recording
Short Summary
The crypto market is witnessing a robust rally, with significant growth in major cryptocurrencies and stocks. Key developments include the launch of Moonbird's token, MicroStrategy's financial maneuvers, and Polymarket's anticipated return to the US market, all contributing to a dynamic landscape of innovation and opportunity.
Full Transcription
Thank you. GM, GM, everyone.
Thank you for joining us here this morning.
We're going to start the show in just a minute.
A couple shout-outs before we get started.
FFV, Bongo, GM Jewels, GM, GM, ZM, Emmett, CJ, Harry, Krishna, T, McNutt, the homie,
GM, GM Ryan
Handy all right
Cookie GM who else we got
Ari oh yeah big prediction market
news here today are we getting
polymarket in the US today we are
gonna find out all right I think
we've got some folks in the house
producer Charlie whenever you're
ready let's kick it. Thank you. G.M. everyone and welcome to another episode of FOMO Hour today.
Today is Thursday, October 2nd, 2025.
And folks, October is off to a banging start.
The government is shut down.
Who cares?
Stocks are at all time highs.
Crypto is rising by the hour right now. And today we are asking, is this rally real or will
it fail like the others? Still no Faroq or Mando, but we got Logan in the house along
with me, your host, Tyler D, to help break everything down. Logan, GM, how you doing?
Hey, good morning, Tyler. I am doing well. Yeah, price is very green.
Very, very green. So I'm not complaining about that stressful day here now with the Cubbies
in a deciding elimination game. Yes. A little bit later today. Otherwise, feeling pretty good.
Can't complain. What are the odds saying for our beloved Cubbies here?
I think they're like minus 120 or something today.
It's basically another coin flip.
Yeah, 52.
I'm seeing 52-49.
Cubs slightly favored after being 75% favorites to win the series yesterday.
So now back to a coin flip.
Yeah.
So we will certainly see that game is 408 Central?
408 Central, yeah, 508 Eastern.
All right.
So not quite prime time, a little before prime time.
We'll have to tune in for that one.
That will be a big one.
Folks, what are we talking about here today on the show?
A lot.
We're going to go into the market report, majors rallying, stocks rallying,
micro strategy rallying, some new big targets from some of the biggest banks in the world, plus a lot more.
We're going to talk Moonbird's token, breaking news right before the show, how that's going to impact the Moonbird's floor along with that Burb strategy token.
We had to talk the NFT strategy tokens.
These things continue to be up into the right 50, 80% gains on the day.
So we'll hit those.
We've got New York running a stable coin pilot for UBI.
What is that going to mean?
And then Polymarket US return,
they might go live in the US as soon as today.
So we're going to talk about that,
spend a little bit of time
talking prediction markets here as well.
Along with a few other headlines,
lighter main net goes live.
Monad coming Q4 plus a bit more.
But producer Charlie, hit us with the intro and we'll get into it. Mainnet goes live. Monad coming Q4, plus a bit more.
But producer Charlie, hit us with the intro and we'll get into it.
For daily NFT and crypto analysis.
Charlie, the old FOMO hour calls to kick.
We're ready to batch the bears.
Yeah, folks, I've got the screen share fired up.
For those who are in the kick stream, we are live on kick and streaming on X as well.
Come join us.
Man, this is a beautiful, beautiful board to kick off our Thursday morning here.
Oh my.
Bitcoin up 2%, 119.6.
Knocking on 120.
We want 120 so bad.
Just Ansem's gut.
Nothing is down more than Ansem's gut right now.
90K before 120.
I don't want to dance. I don't want to dance.
I don't want to start celebrating just yet,
but we are less than half a percent away.
So the Bears last stand looks like it is coming perhaps to an end.
ETH up 2%, 44-16.
B&B back up 3%. It had a little bit of a sideways stretch down at 10.50.
Leading the way for the majors, 226 is leading on the day and leading on the week. It's up 12%.
So it's not just a Bitcoin-only rally, folks. The other majors are certainly moving in step
or perhaps even outperforming. Top movers on the day, unless you've been living under a rock,
if you're on CT, you've seen Zcash.
66% up on the day.
Up 160% on the week.
These are moves that we just really haven't seen.
I guess hell, we have seen them in the last couple weeks
with Plasma and Aster and Apex.
It has been quite the all- season, if we're being honest.
This one is wild.
You know what this reminds me of, Tyler,
is that brief period of time in which the OKX token went up like 200% a day
for like two or three days in a row and seemingly out of left field,
but nobody was really talking about it or cared too much about it.
My issue here was I actually engaged with,
I watched a Zcash video on X,
and now my feed is all about Zcash.
I'm not even sure if it's tied to your video watch.
My feed is all Zcash as well.
I think it's just all anyone is talking about.
And rightfully so.
Look at this chart. There were no entries folks i'm sorry it went from 50 to 150 basically in
in five days um but if you zoom out the zoomed out chart does not look as great
that is quite a fact so i think a lot of folks who maybe be discovering zcash for the first time
i think maybe before building a large position,
explore the history a little bit,
learn,
learn a bit more about the token.
Naval backing.
It certainly has had its impact.
But there's probably going to be some,
some self pressure.
Yeah.
I actually have some experience here.
I was looking at my,
I do um not not
with like a strong conviction or thesis but i was looking back um into my coinbase activity around
zcash uh and i had purchased some in 2017 and i also purchased or maybe 2018 sorry a little bit
more in 2021 uh there's some buys and sells in there. But I still have one on a Trezor
from 2018 that I purchased for like $600. Wow. Yeah. So I'm still down pretty bad on that one,
but I'm still holding just one. It's just one Zcash. One might be all you need. Yeah, hopefully.
To make it. I have not spent time going in depth through this.
I understand the privacy aspect of it.
I am bullish on the privacy narrative.
Over the next three to five years plus,
as crypto hits main stage, becomes more public,
more government eyes, more regulator eyes,
I definitely see that case.
I think there are other privacy tokens as well, though.
So it's not like Zcash alone is the
bet on privacy. But clearly people are betting on it right now. There are some other big movers on
the board as well. I mean, the DEX is up 34%. SPX, haven't really called out that ticker in a while,
up 14% back to $1.22. Aptos had a nice day. Litecoin, Radium. So a lot of big movers.
Aster even back up six percent. They're pulling back from local highs. Going through the market
report, a bit more stocks. Green looks like they're coming down a bit after popping hard
at the open today. I think NVIDIA hit a new all-time high. Tesla was knocking on 480 this morning. So they are on a huge run. This is
despite the government shutdown happening. And I think that the question now is how long is this
going to last? And I don't know that we really have a strong read. We can go to see what the
prediction markets are talking about. When will the government shutdown end on Polymarket? Looks
like the favorite right now.
People are betting on an extended one.
So October 15th or later at 37%, though October 10th to 14th,
which would be, I guess, starting Friday to that Monday,
those odds have popped up about 10%.
So I don't really think anyone in the betting market has a real read on this.
And maybe they do, and it's just my naivete.
But this feels like a bit more of a guessing,
perhaps looking at historical trends.
But I don't know that we really have much inside baseball
on how long this shutdown is going to last.
I couldn't even give you a guess.
Yeah, I don't have a guess either.
I think there is going to be a lot of pressure by the day to get these politicians back to work.
That is their job.
Yeah, I'd like one of these shutdowns,
one of these work shutdowns.
The thing is, we laugh,
but there are a lot of people impacted by this.
A lot of people can't work.
I have a good friend who is in the housing business,
and they do a lot of work with the federal government on putting together
housing, short-term housing, backed by the government.
And they're just – it's all shut down.
So that's just one example of hundreds.
So there are impacts here.
Thoughts out to those who are impacted. Going through the market micro strategy,
you're starting to see this again. A lot of people are starting to dance on the grave.
Sailor, he was finished. He hasn't been buying as much. This thing is up now 50 bucks,
basically in five days. So it was at 300 last week.
It's back to 350 now,
up 16% over the past five days.
That has to be outpacing Bitcoin.
I don't have the Bitcoin five day up.
I'm guessing it was closer to,
probably closer to seven,
Now green on the month as well,
up 17% year to date.
That's basically, let's take a look.
What is Bitcoin up year to date here?
I'm guessing it's about the same.
So Bitcoin year to date is 28%.
Wow.
All right.
So my strategy is still lagging on the year.
The big news we talked about, or actually, I don't know if we did talk about this news
yesterday.
Let me pull this up if I've got it.
Do I not have this headline?
Well, I know Decrypt wrote a story, but effectively –
or Logan, you may have wrote the story.
No, I didn't write this one.
I think my colleague Andre, maybe the tax stuff.
Exactly.
So the news broke –
I think Strategy may have broke the news themselves yesterday. Why am I not finding this? I'll look for it here while we chat. Here's the strategy stock rises. gains. I don't know the specifics of exactly what asset classes fell into this tax bracket,
but it looks like there was an exemption given to MicroStrategy, perhaps just a more broad
exemption to crypto overall. Let's read into this. I mean, the news strategy no longer
anticipating multi-billion tax liability for their $75 billion crypto holdings.
Regulators, firms are not required to incorporate unrealized gains or losses on the value of digital assets.
Okay, so digital assets are exempt.
This does not mean they're exempt for you folks.
Again, this is corporations and unrealized gains.
So this is not something that would have impacted us, but it was clearly going to impact strategy.
15% on $75 billion, that's 10 billion in tax liability.
So Sailor, they had to have been planning for this, right?
Even if they thought that it was going to get relieved, you have to have that rainy day plan at a minimum.
So I feel like he just got a huge boost to capital.
And now likely at least three years safe runway
where this is not going to come back into play
because the Trump administration is not going to put this back on the table.
If anything, they're going to make it easier, lighten the rigs.
So I think it's a good time to be in the MSTR trade is my read on this.
And I think that is clearly good for Bitcoin as well. So Bitcoin, again, having quite the day.
Let's pull up the chart here. Bitcoin 119.5, touched a bit higher. I think we were,
how high did we get on CoinMarket? Oh, wow. So it looks like we did get to basically 120 here briefly,
right before the show started.
Pulled back a touch.
But we're basically just grinding up 2% to 3% per day right now.
Yeah, that's fine with me.
It is fine with me as well.
ETF inflows, pretty fantastic.
675 million, 1.6 billion in net inflows for the Bitcoin ETFs over the past three days to start this week.
So serious inflows, and I do not expect those to slow down, at least here in the near future.
We've been talking about our thoughts on the market, but I thought it could be fun to pull in some thoughts from Mando, Ovi,
and someone else on the timeline and maybe get your reactions to this, Logan,
since we don't have our good friend Mando on the show.
A couple tweets this morning.
Bitcoin all-time high coming this month.
And then he victory lapsed it again.
CT told you it was over.
Bitcoin will hit an all-time high by the end of October.
Most of CT will be sidelined.
Agree? Disagree?
What are your reactions to Mando here?
Yeah.
Firstly, so that first tweet, right, in which he indicates that most of CT will be sidelined,
that was early September, is that right?
September 2nd.
September 2nd. Appreciate it.
Yeah, of course.
Very early as Mando, super astute.
So everything's ringing true thus far.
It definitely certainly feels like that, right?
This has been, and I know we were talking about gradual gains,
2% to 3% over the last, like, what, four or five days.
But this has pretty swiftly moved us right back in range
of previous all
time high.
Um, and it felt like, you know, just last week it was over, right?
Like one Oh eight, five one Oh nine or something like that.
So all, uh, all, all things on board.
I mean, I think an all time high is, is around the corner.
Yeah.
I'm, I'm with them.
The moment, the moment's in is palpable god give me no
credit he did call this pretty damn well so he said grind up in september though there's going
to be some choppy periods especially after the the fomc meeting which we did very well have
some choppy periods but he stuck to his guns with the october all-time high call
and now we're five percent away what do you know the all-time high offhand?
I think it's 124-something.
I use CoinGecko, so the numbers are always a little bit different,
but I believe it's just over 1%.
I have it up right here, actually.
124-128 is what CoinGecko has,
is what CoinGecko has.
so we're about 3.5% from that.
So we're about 3.5% from that.
All right, man.
All right, man.
So you're going to fade 3.5% move
for the next 29 days, not me.
I mean, we could be there today
and it wouldn't surprise me at all.
I wouldn't be shocked at all.
Crazy movement in the myriad line.
Bitcoin's next hit moon to 125K or dip to 105K.
This has been a fun market.
The flips have been
just incredible to watch um and folks remember we this was over 90 because on beckham argo's 13th
we damn near got there it was at 124 right and then rejected off 125 so don't don't count your
uh chips until it really hits through but course, the beauty of prediction markets is you can sell.
You can only sell your bet above that 90% level.
And then everyone got a nice entry last week.
The F side was back to 30%.
So an easy 3X since September 28th on this market.
So wow.
There are opportunities for nice gains in prediction markets.
That is very clear. Let's go to the next tweet. This one from our good friend, wow. There are opportunities for nice gains in prediction markets. That is very clear.
Let's go to the next tweet.
This one from our good friend, Obi.
He says a few good tweets, but I like this one.
We are soon entering the disbelief stage where Bitcoin and ETH make new all-time highs
as those who called the top for the 69th time drown in their sorrows.
Good alts will follow in due course as usual.
Lots of us being in perhaps a disbelief stage of a rally.
So I need to see the chart to understand. I don't have the visual imprinted on my brain
about exactly where disbelief is. But as far as I can say, you know, for my timeline and its
sentiment, it does feel a little bit like disbelief.
Like,
like I said,
I mean,
it's been gradual,
but it's been swift as well.
I know those are kind of contrasting things,
but it just happened so quickly that I think it does leave,
you know,
many sort of thinking like,
okay,
I don't really believe this is happening,
you know,
because it's been such a swift turnaround disbelief.
Okay.
So that is the very tail end or the very beginning right because this is yeah
very beginning if if we're in disbelief man i i want to believe we're in disbelief me too um
yeah um i don't know well while you think about it um i'll wait for your final answer what i do
love is the tagline of disbelief is this rally will fail like the others and like that is kind
of aligned with the sentiment right so let's let's put aside the past price action from the last
three years of this cycle and i've been loudly against the four-year cycle. I think we've broken
out of that. So folks, we'll look back at Bitcoin at 17K and say it's 119K. How could you possibly
be at this part of the cycle? But if you are more in the camp of we're seeing many cycles along a
longer-term grind up, you're effectively resetting every year. Let's take a look at the one year here.
So we all know November 6th, we rally effectively, what, 80%? 60K to 104K. We chopped there for a
wild dip in the April tariff sell-off. Got back to kind of a new range, this 110, 120. We've really been going sideways for most of the summer.
I mean, you could almost say for five, six months now.
So to me, a move, another 50% move here, I believe would meet the criteria.
So if we moved from 120 to maybe even 160, I'd probably count it.
But 160, 180 range, I think would meet this criteria to me.
And I do feel like a move like that is on the table.
Yeah, I think so. I think that's definitely on the table.
It is still difficult for me to fathom it a little bit, right?
Because those are uncharted waters for us.
But I'm there.
You know, like I said, I am not the macro guy.
I understand my limits.
When all of the people who are much smarter and much closer to all this stuff are anticipating higher and providing price targets that, you know, are not like outlandish.
You know, I'm not saying like $13 million Bitcoin or whatever the hell sailor is talking about. I'm inclined to trust those types of analysis.
So I feel like that's in range. It feels pretty good right now with where the market's at.
good right now with uh where the market's at maybe if we get a few more uh yeah a few just
a few more days of excitement to really kick off like a full-blown euphoria and drag us out of
you know disbelief into whatever is the next one is it actually euphoria or hype or something
next stage hope hope then optimism yeah then belief then i think for you okay so i think uh i think
osf could be onto something here and again i'm i'm just working based on my own read of uh of
sentiment um on the timeline and you know in some of this price action here of late
it does feel like we would be in some disbelief right now. If you see us push closer to this all time high number,
I think that's when people start to feel a little tingly and start to feel
that,
that hope.
Yep.
And then,
yeah,
exactly that.
So I think I'm good.
I think I'm good with this.
Yeah.
I think I hope is one 25 optimism is probably like one 30.
And then if we really start moving from there,
I think that's when you start to get in.
That's what I'm reading.
I'm talking about Bitcoin specifically.
Of course, I think each asset kind of has their own
little mini charts like this.
Another tweet,
I'm not gonna go through all of Ovi's tweets.
This other one is paired with the disbelief.
And he's basically saying everyone has recency bias
to prior cycles, two prior drawdowns
are just kind of waiting and expecting another full 30, 50, 70% drawdown.
And he's just calling back to the 2010 bull rally and how effectively from 2009 to 2020, the SBX went up 400% as like one up 10 X with no bigger drawdowns than,
than 20 to 25%.
And if I was saying this could very well happen again.
And again,
this is where my head is at and it's lined up with this tweet from palace.
I basically said this view yesterday,
but he's coming out and saying,
the youngs who said this is the last cycle were right, but what they got wrong is thinking it's
the last bull market. It's actually the last bear market. Crypto ETFs have now been adopted into
the infinite bit and will now on any multi-year timeframe be up and to the right forever.
I feel like I've shared my,
my thoughts on this view.
We've effectively pulled up this chart yesterday while we were talking about
stocks and max seven and whatnot.
agree,
disagree with palace.
I actually don't know if I know your clear thoughts on the four year cycle.
I don't know that I have like a super strong opinion on the four year cycle
stuff.
I never really subscribed to like this,
you know,
very clearly dictated or orchestrated,
you know,
chronology of what has to happen.
I don't think I've ever really been there.
So I think to answer that,
I would say,
yeah,
I don't see any,
any reason we would stick into some time-based cyclical segment moving
forward.
And things do feel a little bit different now, right?
We're very much now less isolated
than we would have ever been before,
meaning that there's just more participants,
there's more money, there's more ways
to participate as well.
I wanted to go back to actually something from the OSF,
the last tweet that you shared
that I was thinking about.
At the very bottom there, very, very final graph.
Too much overcomplication on the timeline, in my opinion.
Easiest route to big wealth is strong spot allocations
and remain long and strong for years to come.
The too much overcomplication thing
really speaks to me a little bit.
We're here every single day
thinking about reasons why it could go down.
Looking for those reasons as to why things could go poorly things could go wrong prices will go down uh instead of just like
kind of zooming out and it's so difficult to do i totally get it um but like instead of just sort
of zooming out and understanding and seeing this convergence of our industry
with the rest of the world
and being at the infancy stages
of that. So, too much
overcomplication. Yeah, I'm right there.
I think you just zoom
out. It's hard to do it, but
overcomplication. I think when it comes to Bitcoin,
there's two fundamental schools
of thought. Assuming that
people here are bullish on a longer-term time horizon.
And I think in general, most are.
So assuming you have a long-term bull outlook, there's two views, two camps.
One are the people who just try to spot Bitcoin and accumulate as much as they can during trades, trading other assets, rotating it back to Bitcoin with no real intention of selling anytime in the near future.
That's camp one.
Then you have camp two, which is trying to time cycles and sell their Bitcoin on the way up, effectively to stables.
As I understand it, to try and catch dips to accumulate more Bitcoin on the next pulldown.
dips to accumulate more Bitcoin on the next pulldown. And while I appreciate the thought
of trying to accumulate more, it just feels so risky to me that you see this chart, you see how
much we're up off the bottom and you want to be 80% stables now, 20% in Bitcoin to catch the next
dip. And maybe we do dip lower than this next year it very well could be possible if i had the if i
had the ability to see the future i'd be much richer than i am now but i don't know just stacking
spot makes so much more sense to me and i feel like the biggest winners that the folks who build
the most wealth are those who are just stacking and finding new ways to drive income to accumulate these assets first is trying to swing
trade cycle timing this uh it reminds me of also those those um you know crazy statistics where
it's like you know it's that time in the market versus timing the market thing where it's like
if you miss the three best days or whatever you only made like six percent versus like 30 percent
or some shit um that's that's what this reminds me of.
And I think that's the overcomplication part
that we'll be sort of talking about is,
you know, we're in and out of these trades every single day,
you know, to try to, yes, perform as best as possible
to stack as much as possible when, you know,
you could really simplify things for yourself
if you just kind of cut out a lot of the noise.
And we're contributing to the noise, of course.
I fully understand the role that we're playing in that.
But those who can mute us to a certain degree
are probably those who will perform the best.
Yeah, I mean, we have to show up.
Us talking has to have to show up every day
and talk about the near-term bear, near-term bull cases, right?
We can't just show up every day and say stack the best assets and zoom out, right?
That would not make for good financial TV.
Let's move forward.
We've spent a lot of time on the majors.
A big surprise announcement this morning out of the Moonbirds team.
Burb token.
It is real.
Very simple tweet announcing Burb coming soon-ish on Solana.
Very interesting timing on this, right?
So we had the announcement.
Burb is coming.
Moonbirds were getting swept pretty actively this morning.
Past a 44, I think perhaps for the first time since their 2022 run and then declined.
They're now selling off a bet.
They're back to 3.8.
I think what is notable here is impact on their strategy token.
here is impact on their strategy token. So Burbstrat had rallied all the way to like 13,
13 and a half million this morning. It was the top mover on the board. Now back to 10,
10 is still a great number of 30% on the day. But it raises the question, which I think has
been on a lot of folks' mind, is how do these strategy tokens work with an actual project token?
So curious for your reactions to the Burb announcement,
and then the second part, what does it mean for Burb strategy?
Yeah, I think this has been not necessarily telegraphed,
but in many ways largely expected that there would be a token
or some sort of token we of course
understand and recognize that Spencer was really close to the the penguins rebound and you know
revitalization of that project and the growth of that ecosystem and so I think in a lot of ways
this rebirth or rehatch maybe I should say of of Moonbirds over the course of the last few months
under his leadership I think mirrors that a little bit. And there's excitement, of course, as a result. So not
necessarily thrown off or anything about the launch of a token. I think the Solana choice
is interesting again, but does make sense too, just because that's where consumers are,
lower fees for trading,
all of those other little ancillary benefits
that you get from that.
The competition of the Burb token versus Burb strategy,
and the same goes for all the others,
is really interesting to me.
That's something that I don't know
how is going to play out over the course
of the next few months.
There's a part of me that suggests or that thinks giving all these different opportunities to folks to participate alongside your brand, to invest and to root for your brand is a good thing overall.
fracturing the liquidities fracturing um you know the communities in a way of like different
rooting interests is a is a little sticky and i think we pointed out before the show i don't
mean to steal any thunder from you but osf had a tweet exactly about this this morning and about
you know potential wrecked guy strategy versus wrecked and i think he he very much said, like, we don't want to,
we don't want to fracture the liquidity.
And that's what's going to happen a little bit here.
And what I think it does more than anything
is it probably just hamstrings where the ceiling is, right?
You may see like the flow back and forth between two
as opposed to just kind of everything going towards one.
Yeah, so just pulls down the ceiling of those tokens, in my opinion, a little bit.
Yeah, I've got some thoughts on it, and it is a tricky one.
Going back to Burb's strategy specifically,
and then I'll go to Obi's thoughts in a second.
So, all right, let's go back to Moonbirds, rather. So Moonbirds have effectively rallied from about a 6th floor to now 3.8
since Spencer entered the picture.
When did that rally really start here?
It looks like it started, was that back in June to the beginning of the summer?
It looks like is when that moved, or was it later?
Maybe it was July.
Okay.
Yeah, it looks like it was actually July is when we moved from a 0.64 and started up.
So mid-July to now two and a half months, almost three months.
These things have five and a half X'd even more in USD terms.
So let's look at this in USD if we can.
I mean,
this was a layup.
It was a layup trade.
Even if you didn't think five X the,
just the energy around Spencer coming in and taking over,
like you could have foreseen that as a,
you know,
should have foreseen that.
And I didn't make this trade talked about it, but never made it. So, you know, dunk it that as a, you know, should have foreseen that. And I didn't make this trade, talked about it,
but never made it. So, you know, dunk it on myself here,
but like energy alone around it.
And I know you shouldn't be trading just on energy and vibes perhaps,
but this was the layup.
So 10 X in USD terms.
So huge trade for anyone who got in this,
but I guess where I'm going with this is that the thesis was he's going to do a token.
To me, I think it was new energy with Spencer taking over, kind of seasoned entity that plus he's going to do a token.
Now we have the token news.
So is this sell the news here?
The confirmation of the token.
Does that mean local top? And I'm not trying to be bearish, but this is just my objective view
as someone who's thinking about entering now with the token confirmed.
My gut is the price action all leading up to this was token expectations
with maybe a combination of NFT strat, right?
NFT strat, let's see how this impacted the last month.
So yeah, I mean, ft strategies came out about in this
time frame eth had a downturn and then it's up 50 in the past week and now the case for burb
strategy is more complicated right like are you gonna are you gonna buy in size into Burpstrat the token right now, knowing the actual project token is coming?
Perhaps next month, perhaps in December?
It's a trickier proposition now, right?
So didn't Spencer, did we talk about this yesterday?
He's been embracing Burpstrat.
He did, and I was away when he did it,
so I don't know exactly how he embraced it.
But how do you manage two
tokens yeah well i can't answer that i mean i imagine he's going to be solely focused on
the actual one right and on making moonbirds the best possible project and its corresponding
companion projects the best possible brand and projects. That's his core focus.
And I think if you're focused on those things
and you're him, not to speak for him,
but you're probably expecting
Burb strategy pulls itself along.
It sort of travels alongside the growth
or the expected growth of Moonbirds as a whole.
And he shouldn't be thinking about
the Burb strategy token the one
thing i would say is i wonder uh they have full control over tokenomics we don't know what they
are yet he's embraced burb strategy they've already been quite generous i think in terms
of community allocations and stuff like or at least in terms of hinting at really supporting
and beyond just this very tight-knit group
of Moonbirds holders, much like what Pudgy did, right?
Billions and millions of people could claim it.
It wouldn't surprise me if you see
Birb strategy holders have some sort of Birb claim.
Very interesting.
So that would be a way to perhaps do it um on the
burb token moonbirds nfts are 150 million dollar market cut do you think the token opens higher
than 150 million for all anime for perspective anime is at 150 150 million is a lot for an NFT token.
I'd like to know a little bit more about the tokenomics.
My initial thoughts when you say 150 million is lower, but I don't know.
It's like 150 million feels high, but it also feels like it should be higher than anime.
Yeah, I think $150 million feels high, but it also feels like it should be higher than anime. Yeah, I think you're right.
The thing that is like a little, you know, it's weighing on me a little bit here is that I think there's a lot of belief in Spencer, you know, and probably rightfully so.
Right. And so at that point, when you're comparing, you know, disregard the fact that it's an NFT project related token.
comparing, you know, disregard the fact that it's an NFT project related token.
When you're just comparing token market caps, like 150 million doesn't really feel like
all that high.
I know that's a little absurd to say, but.
I think that's fair.
So we'll see.
I'm sure we will continue to revisit Burb Strat and the Burb Token on this show.
I won't hit Punk Strategy again.
We spent a lot of time on it this week but
but man up another 30 percent it's at 144 million market i'd be up uh if i were just bought on
monday when i outlined my convictions on it and why i thought it was so great yeah it's up 100
percent from monday right so we had the sunday sell off into that kind of exploit flood i think
it got to 60 70 so it's
basically up 2x since then it does look like they will probably get the 20th punk today if not today
definitely tomorrow um so some serious momentum in this ecosystem it looks like every dip is just
bought so i woke up and this thing was down um from 150 130. And I was trying to think, okay, how can I find some coins
in the digital couch cushions to buy some more of this?
And before I could figure it out, basically, it's back.
So it's back to all-time highs.
So there's some very strong ongoing bid for this one.
I tweeted yesterday that I do think it goes to a billion.
I think I'm going to stick by that. I do think that I do think it goes to a billion. I think
I'm going to stick by that. I do think this thing has a real shot at a billion. And maybe even once
it gets there, it's going to be a 2X to flip the punks market cap. And I think that's going to be
a big target. So I'm not short punk strategy. That is very clear. Let's move on. I want to
talk about polymarket. So this kind of caught me off
guard yesterday. I was doing my roundup in the afternoon and I saw this headline. Stacey Jones,
colleague over at Decrypt, wrote this article, but prediction market, Polymarket poised to
relaunch in the US within days and maybe as soon as today. This kind of shocked me. I guess I didn't realize it was happening this fast. I
wrote about it in the newsletter this morning for those who do follow along with the morning minute,
but quickly, this is the timeline. So in July, Polymarket bought QCX clearing for $112 million.
They effectively bought this CFTC license. That was the reason for the
acquisition. On September 3rd, CFTC staff issued a new action letter, giving them limited relief
on event contracts. Polymarket has since started self-certifying event contracts on things like
sports or elections. And then under the CFTC rules, I guess this is kind of like perhaps a loophole
that we're talking about.
But once a DCM files a certification, the agency has one business day to object.
And if they don't object, the prediction market can list it immediately.
And I guess Polymarket has come out and said these listings will occur no earlier
than October 2nd.
So effectively, what this means here is I interpret it.
They start self-certifying these markets.
They launch these markets.
And if the CFTC does not object,
they can stand is my read on this.
So it's one of those don't ask permission,
apologize after the fact type thing
and Polymarket seems like the
group who would go after that
right so are we going to see
Polymarket US
this week
so you had Polymarket pulled up earlier
in one of your tabs
is that if you went back to the homepage
there was like a little US.s flag okay yeah has that
always been there or no okay okay that's the is coming home yeah got it got it i was wondering
if it went i mean i can't imagine it would have gone live without somebody telling us but um
right under our nose i'm i'm really interested to see what happens here.
I don't imagine that anyone who has... I don't imagine that people that want to use Polymarket
haven't been using Polymarket.
You know what I mean?
If you really wanted to use it,
I imagine you've probably been using it.
I'm wondering what the onboarding looks like
once they can open Floodgates and market to US users a little bit more broadly.
Does Polymarket have a mobile app?
I don't think so.
I think it did at one point.
I don't have my phone near me.
And I was messing around and looking at it because I downloaded Kalshi.
I'm not making a lot of trades on prediction markets right now.
I do follow them.
Well, I do everything on web, so I don't really even think about it.
So it looks like it does have a mobile app.
But where I was going with this is, in general, I agree with your viewpoint
that people who wanted to trade on Polymarket could have found a way.
They could have taken a flight, whatever, the workaroundsounds but i do think there's a large cohort of people who just
won't do that yeah and vpn on your phone right it is a little bit trickier to manage i imagine
there's not a huge cohort of folks who have that so i think that the big unlock is mobile, like mobile U S is big, especially for sports.
I think we, we probably have friends who don't really pretty much are mobile only betters
at this point.
We know sports is driving the lion's share of volume right now, at least broadly across
prediction markets.
So I think that is a big unlock there.
So I do think volumes will be impacted.
I was taking a look,
and I think we pulled this up on the show this week,
but they're already up and to the right.
I think I saw Kaushy did a billion dollars last week.
So Kaushy shares up at 62%.
So they have a significant lion's share of the volume.
Do you think Polymarket
eats back into that?
Yeah, I think it should.
I think you're right.
The Calci Mobile experience
is pretty nice.
Like I said,
I'm not making active trades
on there,
but I do have the app downloaded
and will occasionally
scroll through the stuff.
It's simple.
As a user of Web2 products, I could totally understand why you'd be doing your...
If you were going to participate with Prediction Markets, why you would be doing it at CalGVM mobile.
So I'll need to see what the Polymarket mobile experience looks like.
But if it's anywhere near as easy, then I fully expect they will eat will eat into uh yeah some of the shares um
that that market number anyway there there's some also like interesting lingering stuff for
polymarket right which is um potential airdrop stuff you know like that was a speculation point
of course i don't know anything further about it,
but those types of things bring in volumes that perhaps weren't previously
there.
Agree.
Yeah, we'll see.
I saw an interesting take from Domer and it's very long and I'm not going to
go through it.
And he's a prediction market whale.
I don't know the exact numbers.
I think he's up seven figures trading prediction markets over the last year,
a couple of years.
And he has a long post about his thoughts at a polymarket at 9 billion.
And how if he was given an airdrop at 9 billion,
he would hold it and would think about adding more.
And I'm curious for your take on that.
We talked about this a little bit on against the odd show,
a couple of weeks back,
poly market at 9 billion.
Are you buying selling or holding?
I'm going to give you the,
what else?
That's market cap.
we'll say FTV.
I think I'm,
I think I'm definitely holding i'm just scroll i'm just scrolling through the board to you know yeah for myself a little bit top 35 trump coins at seven
and a half uniswap eight story yeah nine ina is nine well nine let's say this. Assuming I didn't need the money for anything right away,
if something fell into my lap,
I think I'm holding at $9 billion and potentially adding.
Yeah.
It is the biggest prediction market brand.
In my opinion, even though the market share may differ. All things else equal, once we're back in the USA, clear a lot of those barriers. I think it is the prediction market brand.
I do think the, we were talking about this offline yesterday a little bit.
I do think some of the broad appeal is a little overblown.
You know, I don't think this is going to drag in every user ever from every whatever.
But the opportunity here is massive.
And so I think at $9 billion, I would be holding and potentially adding more.
Yeah.
I tend to agree.
I think what's interesting about Polymarket
is it's a unicorn in crypto.
It would create its own sector, effectively.
Right?
Maybe other prediction markets front run
and drop a token.
I think we have some prediction market tokens
on the market.
But effectively, they would be the first major player.
Zim and Kalshi, top one and two.
Maybe they flip their rankings. K calci doesn't have a token so polymarket launches their token in
q4 9 billion seems fair and i think i would be a buyer like it is not a trade where i think you
expect a 10x in a year by any means i do think you could probably get a quick 2x is polymarket a top
20 token i would put it above ton coin i think um i see the telegram coin currency use case
certainly and that's a huge app as well um maybe not even the best comp,
but just in general,
in a vacuum,
it feels like Polymark could very well be a top 20,
top 15 coin.
Yeah,
I'm with you.
And I think one of the things that has not really been discussed too much
about Polymarket,
but that this fits right into the meta is like the actual business slash
revenue.
So I mean,
it's got that going for it too, right?
It falls in line quite nicely alongside things like Hyperliquid
and, you know, PumpFun.
As far as like having a real legitimate purpose,
yeah, you could, I guess, poke holes at how legitimate
the purpose of a prediction market is.
But, you know, actually having some substantive reason for existing uh versus xyz token you know what i mean
so yeah i think i think at those numbers i wouldn't be i wouldn't necessarily be rushing to
sell although it's very difficult you know of course free money falls in your lob it's not
it's difficult to uh to not take it. Of course.
We'll see. This is going to be arguably... There's going to be a lot of interesting airdrops in Q4. We've seen tons
of chatter on what's being heavily farmed, what's being under-farmed.
Shout out to Yeet, our partner, a good partner of the Morning Minute as
well, Underexposed.
I've seen some increased chatter on Yeet as the most under-farmed airdrop.
We know we have OpenSea coming up as a huge one.
Metamask.
Metamask.
Rainbow.
Rainbow.
Additional airdrops from protocols like Aster i mean monad monad oh
yeah the intern said monad is indeed coming q4 let's talk about that for a second um
what what are your excitement levels from monad
one through 10 maybe like a four i don't know it's probably higher than me
i it's not a knock on monad at all like um i just don't know what to expect really it's been
forever that this has been expected to hit our you know our timelines and our uh participation
opportunities would be abundant
to participate on another performance Layer 1 network.
But I have not messed around with Testnet really too much
outside of the first day Fantasy Top Monad Testnet stuff.
Claimed a couple of Testnet Mon.
I wrote a small piece for Decrypt about it as well.
Full disclosure, I was fortunate enough to get
one of those monad cards uh one of those community cards i don't know what that does or means or
matters for yet but um just want to throw that disclosure out there so four uh i want to see
what happens um and if it is something that, gosh, airdrop claim loading 51%.
And Monad will launch this quarter.
I feel like two weeks ago they said it was right around the corner.
And then I feel like two weeks before that they said it was right around the corner.
Here's my question.
I would say my excitement level is a one.
And like, why should I be excited?
I'm not trying to flood Monad.
Maybe it'll be fine.
I don't know anything about it.
What apps do they have?
What am I going to do on Monad?
This is a very competitive space.
I'm trying to trade perps on three different platforms across multiple chains right now.
I'm trying to juggle prediction markets, trying to get a few NFT trades in for OpenSea.
I've got limited time capacity.
I'm missing a lot.
You could absolutely be a full-time airdrop farmer.
You could probably have a team right now with all the opportunities that are out there.
My point is, this is a crowded time.
How are they going to win users?
It's cliche, but there's got to be something to do the apps have to be slam dunks you know you need i think you got to have at least
one like absolute slam dunk killer app to get people to use your chain um you know solana
pump fun and and beyond think about early base. Frentech got a lot of people there
for whatever you want to say about Frentech. That was a reason to use base. Not to suggest
that all of the money stuck around on base because of Frentech. The Coinbase affiliation,
of course, it's tough to really put that one alongside these but you need something like that there's
got to be a reason for us to be there first and then you hope that you can keep us around with
other sticky applications uh and use cases but the reply to that is the most important thing of all
is a strong token and if they airdrop a token and the price goes up, that will be enough to get you.
Because it just happened
with Aster,
a platform that no one
knows about,
and then tripped over
themselves to do
$90 billion a day
in perps volume.
So there is a path
out there
for the Monad believers.
You talked about pump
and this quickly,
I have to go here.
I just totally forgot.
We still had this pump airdrop.
It didn't come in September.
It's 45% by the end of the year?
Oh, no.
And, of course, there's not much volume on this market,
so take it with a grain of salt.
I guess, okay, there's no October market.
Interesting.
But, my God, is pump really not going give give the people an airdrop in 2025
i feel like the my expectation is that pump has uh just like a little red button on the
desk somewhere and then they're just gonna hit it at some point um alan's got the codes
and to me like we talked about it earlier this week with the aster one looming with a date i
understand why you would not you know you wouldn't hit that button in the next couple days but with
the market conditions the way they are you want to make people happy i know it's tough to like time
the market for these types of things but uh if you've got all your ducks in a row
and you can start to smell and feel that hope,
that move from disbelief into hope,
is there a better time to hit go?
I don't think so.
I'm sure they've got a plan as well.
And it's going to impact the pump token.
Certainly.
Maybe it'll be a bullish unlock.
A bullish unlock.
I think the Astro Airdrop could be bullish as well.
We'll certainly see.
Two minutes left in the show.
I forgot during our NFT strategies,
we got to talk about this. Node strategy.
It came out last night.
It's from the Bitcoin and Ordinal's community.
It is not an affiliate of Adam Renautic and the Tokenworks team, NFT Strategies.
But I think the auction is live.
Maybe it's done.
I haven't checked in on the auction.
I saw somebody in the chat say it was done.
And I was going to do it.
And now I'll just cry about it,
obviously probably going up afterwards.
But man, notes sending up over 100% off the bottom,
70% on the day.
Are there collections as well?
So puppets are up, they're catching this.
And Tepper's still hanging out at .167.
So we'll see.
If this is successful,
expect some other ordinal strategies
probably to come.
Yeah, Pups is a no-brainer, isn't it?
I was just very curious about,
and I am not a tech whiz,
I'm the opposite of that.
What are the technical details
of getting this to work
in an automated fashion with ordinals?
Man, that feels tricky.
I don't want to know, to be honest.
Yeah, maybe the less we know, the better.
But some nice signs of life into ordinals with Bitcoin around.
So you truly love to see that.
That was one of the only other headlines.
I think this isn't a super long one.
A lighter.
So this is the third Perpstex by volume size right now behind just Aster and Hyperliquid.
They went live with the public mainnet.
So it's been private now, full to the public.
I have not really used this one, but folks compliments it pretty highly.
I say that it is pretty slick, fast, and I think the fees are maybe the lowest.
I could be wrong, but the fees are low, fast.
I think expectations of a token
Oh yeah, they've got a points program
So the first season concluded
Second season is starting up
So clearly folks are going after that one
So be aware if you are into the perps trading game
Another platform to be paying close attention to here
Yeah, I think that's mostly it
Maybe we'll talk about this UBI stablecoin pilot tomorrow
for a little bit more time.
Not an immediate impact,
more of a theoretical conceptual discussion there.
Was there anything else on your list for today, Logie?
I don't think so.
I think we hit a lot.
I'm eager to see what happens
with that node monkey strategy thing.
I really think this whole strategy thing,
this has been a really cool
kind of big unlock innovation thing.
You know, you have those sort of formative
pieces of innovation
that spurn their own innovations.
I think Pump.Fun was one of those, right?
Led to a million other token launch pads.
That is its thing.
Maybe it's a little too early to call it this,
but this is one of those first token fee mechanism innovations
that is starting to get hold.
And I think you're going to see a lot more cool stuff
as a result of that. So I think it's a space you should definitely pay attention to, for sure And I think you're going to see a lot more cool stuff as a result of that.
So I'm,
I think it's a space you should definitely pay attention to for sure.
I agree.
And part of me feels bad talking about it on the show every day.
And clearly I'm a holder of punk strategy.
I wish I was holding more of these tokens,
but it really does feel like a big deal.
And it has been a bit of a shift and the most exciting thing that happened to
NFTs in quite some time.
So we're going to keep talking about it on this show,
but along with other things, as for today, we are done talking.
So thank you all of our listeners for tuning in to today's show.
It was a fun one. The green day shows are always better.
We'll be back tomorrow at 10 a.m.
Eastern to close out the week until then go have a beautiful day.
Bye. Thank you.
