Sorry, all right, all right, all right. We have no time for introductions. Stand it, baby.
Oh, Mando's here. Let's go. Thank you. Yo, yo, yo, yo yo yo what up what up good morning good morning gmg monday
baby oh my oh my monday, July 21st, 2025.
Another beautiful day to have a beautiful day.
Another beautiful week to have a beautiful week.
I got my co-host in the house.
How are you guys doing today?
We're higher from where? We are. We did call higher and we are higher. Yeah. Fantastic. You showed up. We're higher, right? We're higher from where?
We are. We did call higher and we are higher.
Not Bitcoin, but I think the rest is.
sideways for everything else. So, been a good
weekend. I thought you were taking
all of a sudden. Still about 4% from retirement. So, um, I still get my four days off, right?
Well, I even told you that you can take the whole week off,
even without it happening, you know, but, uh,
I'm glad you're here, man.
We got, it's fun to start the week off strong all together, man.
What a fucking weekend it's been.
What a start of the week.
I absolutely love to see that.
It's feeling like a jubilant July here.
We've got ETH melting faces.
And then yesterday, man, NFTs scorching hot.
One of the biggest sweeps we've seen in years.
Got my blood pumping yesterday.
As the great, you know, Confucius once said,
I feel like Farouk in 2021.
And so, you know, Tyler's got the green shirt on.
You got to study Tyler's like dress,
like his clothing, choice of clothes
when he comes on the show.
Because I know he's like mindful about it.
Like he's got his green shirt on.
He's got a green bulls hat on, you know.
And what color underwear?
Anyway, it's a day on the show today.
We'll talk markets. I mean, love to see that. The only red candles I love it. Coordinated. Color coordinated. Anyway, so they're on the show today. We'll talk markets.
I mean, love to see that.
The only red candles I love to see, I never thought I'd be cheery on red candles, is the Bitcoin dominance candles.
I mean, those are just like, there's a lot of red on that chart.
So we'll talk about the market.
Tyler's top 1,000 is back on the menu.
We're going to have to talk a lot about this.
We're going to have to take some time to talk NFTs.
This is NFTs dollar show this weekend.
We'll probably start there.
You absolutely love to see that.
It's always a good vibe, right?
When NFTs pump, everybody's always happy.
A lot of 2021 people stuck around and feel like this bear market.
So it's always good vibes on the timeline.
Let me add them on stage.
Even bongos, runes him on stage even bongos
ruins and ordinals had a green weekend back to prices on scene since last week and and then we
are joined also by our show sponsor the kraken team kraken team's gonna join us and chit chat
about you know a lot of stuff we're getting etf stuff a bunch of stuff that they've got uh in the
works and that they've been doing. Then also a giveaway.
Someone's going to win a thousand and up.
Someone's going to win some money there on the show.
And last but not least, this show is powered by Wallet Connect.
Wallet Connect is a connectivity network shaping the future of Archie and UX.
If you've connected to Web3 app, you've seen Wallet Connect.
That blue logo, it's everywhere.
And I couldn't trust in crypto as recognizable as visa at checkout want to learn more follow
Wallet connect on X and telegram to say ahead of what's next. I'm out of breath. I'm too excited
The fuck I worked out too hard this morning and I'm too excited right now
Also cracking pro we're cracking pro you get full control of your layout drag and drop any module customize it all
It's clean this small and built for real traders
Actually, if you had long a lot of the coins we talked about last week on cracking pro this weekend
You'd be up if you trade crypto
Check out pro.cracking.com trade without trade-offs speaking of trading Mando
See what you got for us today yeah gm everyone so it has been a better better week for all coins in general
oh a better weekend bitcoin bitcoin's up very slightly but this
we had obviously the move in
and then we had a move in solana at least today and it's been a bit more of a broader
rally i would say in alts so bitcoin dominance down to just shy of 61 remember it hit its high
at 66 so this has been a five percent move so far a lot of people seemingly are ready to say that that's the that was a cycle top for bitcoin
dominance i'm i'm still unconvinced but i do think that it's important to note that
eth versus alts has generally been outperforming too so like eth has generally outperformed most
alts so far so what i said is that eth is driving the majority of this that's still the case we've seen a little bit of a reversal in that today with things like solana moving but um i don't think
no this is necessarily a big altcoin move or if this is still just like an eth move with some
ripple effects um let me put it that way but what we did see is some more of the riskier parts of
the market starting to move this weekend so and the main one
there is nfts like nfts moving we started to see some of those move in like november december last
year if you remember um kind of towards the end of that of that move and people are like oh you know this is this a top signal or is this just um
is this just a another way to play the eth trade i i think this is another way to play the eth trade
i felt like in november december it felt more like um a top signal of like, wow,
like everyone's going for like the most risky bits of the market.
This actually feels quite rational.
I think people are getting very bullish on ETH.
And I think they're looking at other ways to play that trade.
I haven't said that in a while,
blue chip NFT projects is,
is actually a way to do that,
sweep in and then when they start moving smaller stuff moves too so i i think this nft move makes
sense i don't know how long it lasts but i do think that people will like this as a as an eth
beta trade essentially um so you've seen the top eth collections all move up decent amount
crypto punks has been the main ones they've seen very big moves and things like moonbirds
big moves in pudgy penguins even some of the apes are moving higher again this is this has been
generally the top eth collections are moving moving up um which is yeah which is very interesting
When we were speaking about ETH beta before,
generally people have gone for DeFi coins or meme coins,
and NFTs have been left aside. But it does feel as though NFTs look kind of good here.
At least CryptoPunks, I think,
as the Bitcoin of NFTs, let's put it that way, and you have CryptoPunks, I think, as like the Bitcoin of NFTs,
and you have CryptoPunk dominance,
it still feels like those can go higher here.
Obviously, Tyler's been keeping us up to date
with the Bitcoin versus ETH spread.
Hey, it's doing pretty good.
Tyler's euphoric this morning.
I think it was the right call.
tour over here in this call.
when people push about a range of different things
and people calling for NFT season,
everything, we're about to have 2021 again.
I still really don't think it's the same
i think this is an eth trade i don't think people were buying nfts as eth beta back in 2021 i think
they were buying them because they thought it was the future of like collectibles and that
digital ownership and identity were going to be
massive massive drivers which they were but the eth trade was a buy was a byproduct particularly
from like the trading community i think this time around it feels more like oh punks might be the
best eth beta actually out there or one of the best eth beaters and that caused that initial
sweep and then we've seen seen the ripple effects of that.
And it's very similar to how I view the altcoin versus ETH trade.
Benjamin Cowan, who has been a decent follower
he put out a really good tweet yesterday,
which I'll just read out now.
I retweeted it on my timeline,
so maybe you can bring it up yeah um he says
for years people said why hold bitcoin when alts outperforming bitcoin and bitcoin dominance went
from 38 to 66 now those same people are saying why hold eth and alts will outperform you cannot
help those that don't want to be helped and he's been a big bitcoin believer but he's
basically saying that this whole like own alts because uh because if bitcoin moves also move
uh he's saying don't get caught up with that with eith as well and i i that is what i subscribe to
so i've been saying for the last two months um now i'm not saying you can't have pumps and all
this sort of stuff but i i think that is going to be the trend that ETH, own ETH.
If you're going to buy ETH beta, make sure you have some ETH.
You know, don't just be like, I'm just, I'm going to own ETH beta or NFTs or all this sort of stuff.
Well, I think we can be realistic and say that you've kind of matched ETH with Mog and underperformed ETH with Pepe.
And for the risk profiles of those two coins, I would much have preferred ETH.
You haven't done badly from it.
No, you're right, because the drawdown on Mog was insane for the last couple of months.
And if there is another drawdown, know you're right it's gonna be
it's gonna be bad so um and those are those are like prime eeth beta trades right those are like
you could have picked a better mog is like been considered one of the best eeth beta trades out
there only really rex um and a few other things have i've really outperformed ETH in this move. And I am of the view that can continue.
I don't think the drivers of this move in broader crypto are really to do with altcoins.
I think it's to do with ETH, treasury, and ETFs, and tokenization.
No, I mean, there's an institutional bid on ETH nonstop now.
Similar to Bitcoins early in the last year.
Or let's say in the last year, not even early or anything.
So I think we've talked about this on the show, right?
But I don't think you want to fade that.
Also, there's some crazy exchanges that happen on the timeline.
I don't know if you saw that.
Arthur Hayes is like, fam, can we pump ETH to 5k by Friday? And then you have Tom
this is a type of bull bull thing happening on the
timeline right now for Ethereum. Like, as long as this morning, I was like,
holy shit. Right? Ty, like, this
is absurd. It's fun to see.
said there's not a whole lot of
No, the 4k mark, and that's it, right?
He's saying he doesn't think 4K is going to be that hard.
So that got me a little bowled up.
I think we're going to max deploy.
I'm also the guy who looks for the bullish takes out there
to get excited to take it out with a grain of salt.
But now, you've got this new
has come out. They're going to buy
a billion or up to 1.5 billion.
It's going to take a little time for that to develop.
action. Have you guys seen...
We are full percent from retirement.
Everyone just laying out.
We are moving up higher as we speak.
They're listening to you.
Have we seen this week's?
Your last week was a Tesla fractal.
Have we seen this week's bullpost of ETH?
The thing about Deez's post about ETH is that he doesn't own any.
So he's looking at these charts going like, oh my fucking God.
He said specifically he doesn't own any.
He's in Mog Rect and NFTs, I believe.
He owns some now because he sold a punk accident
One of his punks was lifted for 44 and a half.
He brought up the Bitcoin ETH bitcoin like if you look at one
of his other posts yesterday um and this chart just screams like he posts a lot that that one
yeah max pain scenario from my dumb ass of the eth bit one goes back toTH that chart to me, I mean,
not been a chance to get in.
And there is a scenario here where you do get that move up to all time high,
I'm not going to four ish,
what that is just pain because I love it.
Yeah. I love it. I love yeah i love it i love it so much i love it i fucking love it i very few people are positioned for it i think yeah i think you're making a
great point even the more rational folks who who've gotten out of the trenches right they've
all been buying bitcoin for the most part if they're getting out and putting into more safer crypto, they're either
in stables or Bitcoin. You didn't see anyone
saying, I'm going to buy an ETH back.
No. They all bought Bitcoin at like 120
K as well, thinking it goes to 250, right?
What do you mean? You did?
Oh yeah, fuck yeah, we did.
I think I have enough ETH
But, you know, it's fine.
Farcoin's about to break out.
We're feeling something here.
Ethan's almost 3,900 right now, guys.
Mando's camera's going to go off.
It's going to happen on the show. He's just gone. And then you're going to see the chat,
the FOMO hour chat on WhatsApp. Mando has left the chat. Oh my God. That would be comical.
Anyways. All right. Anything else in the market, Mando, that we need to, no, we're good, right?
This week for macro, there's actually quite a lot.
So there's quite a lot of earnings for Tesla and I think Amazon.
It's quite a big week for earnings.
About 20% of the S&P is reporting this week.
So there'll be some movers in tech on the back of that.
There's a couple of Powell speeches, but other than that, it's's a little bit quiet I think people will still be looking
at these kind of continual headlines about
does he do anything there it's still
not really put to bed let me put it
that way and it would spook
the market if anything happened there even if
yeah I think that's kind of it I think that's kind of it.
We're just going to see more, uh, more stories.
I think around the East and the East inflows is going to be the main thing of this week.
And then whether, whether that continues over to NFTs.
Well, speaking of NFTs, let's go to Tyler and let's start with that.
Cause there's a lot to cover. For jelly NFT and crypto analysis, Tyler D on FOMO, our cause of the game.
We're ready to bash the bears.
Folks, crypto major is very green.
Sol and ETH leading the way.
Bitcoin is up 0.5%, 119K.
We've got ETH up 2.5%, 3850.
Sol leading the way up 6% at 193.
Some of the top movers in the day.
CFX was up 50%. Pingu up 30%.
We had Bitcoin dominance fall to 60.7%.
That's the lowest level since March 1st,
partially because of the ETH ETF inflows.
$402 million into the ETH ETFs on Friday.
That beat the Bitcoin ETF inflows for the second day in a row.
Also tweeted over the weekend, 40% of the net inflows have happened in the past eight
So it clearly is accelerating.
In other news, we had Trump sign the Genius Act into law on Friday, establishing the first
regulatory framework for the US dollar back stable coins.
And then immediately Tether CEO, Paoloolo came out and said they're laying out plans
for Tether to fully comply with the new stablecoin that fits into these regulations.
So look for that to come.
We had Peter Thiel's bullish file for an IPO following Gemini and Grayscale's footsteps.
Charles Schwab, CEO, he went on CNBC and said they're going to be offering spot
Bitcoin and ETH trading soon.
Then Jack Dorsey's block,
becoming the second crypto company to enter
the S&P 500 following Coinbase.
I believe their stock was up 9%
this morning. In Treasury news,
raised $1.5 billion to build the next
Ethereum Treasure Co., $800 million
earmarked for ETH purchases.
That is tied to the DYNX stock ticker that pops like 30% today.
BTBT added another 20,000 ETH last week.
Saylor bought $740 million of Bitcoin.
Average of around $119K last week.
And now Trump Media, that was the news right before the show.
Trump Media has $2 billion in Bitcoin.
So Trump is a Bitcoin bull in more ways than one. In token airdrop and protocol news, the Pump team has started doing daily buybacks,
which look to be 25% of their daily revenue.
So they had the big splashy day, and now they're doing 25%, more like the $150K per day range.
Pump trading at $4.3 billion FTD right now.
MemeCoin launchpad volumes, though, were up 15% week over week.
Though BonkFun, 69% share right now.
So they are still the commanding leader.
We saw Polymarket drop their 2028 election market.
They also said 4% yield to help make those bets more meaningful in a longer time
horizon. They also teased a new resolution process, so
look out for that. Myriad added to
the Linea Hub inside Minimax portfolio.
Also, several new ETH-related markets
over on Linea. Go check those out.
And then Kaido, right before the show,
they introduced several new changes to their
Yapper leaderboards along with their GKaido
green. Pingo again leading the way.
Doge is up 30% on the week, now $41 billion in all-time highs.
We had SBX hit $2 in the new all-time high yesterday.
Wrecked $250 million at TV this morning.
New all-time high for it.
And the rest of the news is NFTs, folks.
ETH NFT leaders up 10% to 20%.
Punks plus 17% after a 45-punk sweep.
88 punk sales in the past day.
The floor is now $180,000.
Moonbirds were a top mover over the weekend.
They were up about 3X to close to 2 ETH.
Several generative art NFTs rallied.
Squiggles were swept to 6.
Roboto's even came up 1,500% at 13Ts to come back.
I don't know how to do that.
It was a bit of an NFT craze over there this weekend.
Even the Orinals are up 20% to 30%.
Taproot Wizards leading the way up 30% to 0.22 Bitcoin.
So a lot of green on the NFT board.
I'm not sure how I feel the Roboto's part of the...
Understandably so. CloneX, Roboto'soto's pumping you're like what's going on here
rock radio is up like 2x too love to see that uh but we we we we stay quiet about that one
this one's a sleeper and you know what i mean and also um i forgot there was also something else
but anyways we should uh start with nfts
because at the end of the day we all three of us came into the space with nfts well we're class of
2021 right like like they like people like to name it and i have to say though class of 21 has been a
class that stuck around a lot like i know we talk about oh we're seeing familiar faces popping in
back and yes there's always tourists but 21 like because a lot
of us kind of bag held that shit through the lows you know i mean even though we took some off that
we bag held a lot or round tripped a lot and a lot of 2021 folks came on to like build a lot of
cool shit i find which is super cool so let's start there tyler i mean i feel like i know
mando mentioned a little bit but we got to talk about this punk sweep.
Yeah, a few things happened.
I think the punk sweep was definitely the big one.
So I was casually following the markets yesterday.
That was insane. It was going off.
So I log in and just see the biggest wave of sales
that we've seen in years.
It was hard to tell right away how many had even been swept because someone came in and did
like a 45 punk sweep and then punks otc came in and bought like 19 more so there were 65 sold in
the matter of like a five minute period 80 as again as i mentioned 88 sales in the past day
if you look at the overall punk floor chart basically it basically went from 150K to 180K.
I can't find your website.
July 4th, the punk floor was 93K.
So it's up 2X in 17 days.
Which, again, just shows you how violent the moves are
or how violent they can be in entities. You basically just have to be violent the moves are or how,
how bad they can be an entity.
You basically just have to be in the position if you,
because you're never going to catch the updates.
So it's playing out again now holding out about 1.5 Bitcoin for one punk.
that ratio is basically off the charts at this point.
But what was interesting about this weekend is Hawks.
So Moonbirds had been running from Friday night into Sunday.
I think perhaps speculation of some announcement coming this week
is that was a pretty big run.
It was up about 150, close to 200%.
Then squiggles were swept in the art world right ahead of this punk sweep.
And then after the punk sweep, all the chats
I was in was totally electric.
What can we buy downstream?
what's the next Roboto's that's going to
NFT? So folks already went
straight down to the edge of the risk curve.
I loved how you were tweeting about Roboto's.
He tweeted about Robotas this weekend Tyler
I just thought it was hilarious
I just saw my comment and I was like wow
Tyler's really in the fucking weeds
If he's reading the Robotas
Like a new season for Robotas
We're back. Yeah, all they did was
come back and have one more tweet. Their last tweet
was like a year ago. Tyler must
must be going crazy with this guy at home,
man. He must be just running around the halls
all weekend long. She's got
kids to take care of and Tyler now.
And then as the dust has settled this morning,
it basically has permeated the entire board.
I'm trying to pull these up.
Yeah, it's up even more than that now.
You see some of these here.
So the art world's moving.
Those things are $60,000 now.
And what's interesting here is so you've got –
like the punk trade is a collectible trade.
I think also a staking ETH trade.
If you're going to buy 40 ETH, would you rather just buy 40 ETH,
or would you rather effectively stake it in a punk?
Other of these have the token in a play as well.
So the Pingu token has been leading the Punchy Penguin NFTs.
Pingu is up much more than the NFTs are.
Same for Rekt. Yeah, Rekt, right? Same for Rekt.
Rekt guy is like 0.65 here.
I think that's also a part of the driver for the Moonbird trade right now.
I think he has been pretty vocal that he likes token plays for NFT projects.
Not too hard to project that out.
So that's another driver taking place in all this.
a bit of the rotation play.
So Squiggle start pumping.
If it didn't just start pumping, folks are going to start
going down the Artblocks list next.
Right? You're going to see Genesis
I would have been okay, but you went
no it's because they you didn't go down the list where where is this roboto's tweet i gotta find
it dude hold on and then tweeted for a year and tyler's already there in the week this is the
great thing about nfts versus um like in the trenches for nfts versus in the trenches for
for meme coins is meme coins you coins, you need a trading bot,
and you're looking at which wallet's bought what.
With this, you've got to be following all the different accounts.
You've got to be following all the different NFT accounts,
and in the discords, and grinding.
This is where Tyler comes into his A game,
No one else reports this news. So like Roboto is getting a tweet. I like
Like a meme coin right like this
This is like the only person giving news on aft project is Tyler
Which ones do I have NFTs that are worth any money right now?
You have so much power at this point
Nobody else is still in the discord nobody else
It's still tracking the tweet to all these guys. So I still have three robottos
I'm gonna take my money, dude.
So what are we pumping today, Tyler?
I still have three Roboto's. Little Lemons or Nakamigos.
I still have a Goblin Town NFT.
That's what we're pumping.
When the NFT archaeologists start coming back
and super that's when you know it might be time to super yetis maybe super yetis take a little
risk off do you remember super yetis you know i just moves to uh back into nfts does he
what do i have in my vault do i have anything worth anything? I got rid of a lot in the bear
good shit there. What's that? No, I get sent.
That's stuff that people spam me with.
Well, I have 13 red guys.
I minted those. I never touched them.
I still have a penguin, of course.
Obviously, my punk. But I can't
sell the punk. I can't sell the penguin, right?
Can't sell the red guys. People one. I only have one of everything. I can't sell the punk, can't sell the penguin, right? Can't sell the right guys.
I only have one of everything.
One dick, but it's terrible.
Like it's me as a dick, but you know,
it's not four clone axes.
Nah, I'm getting rid of this shit.
We might have to flip back to coins. I love it in T's. Okay. Okay. Oh, baby. Oh, Farquhane 160. This is the level.
We might have to flip back to coins. I love it in T's.
Broke, you said to me as a friend, next time it goes to 160.
I'm not fucking selling. No, but you know what I mean?
You don't sell. This is the one you don't sell.
What am I going to sell for sell What would you sell for cash?
Everyone in the chat. Oh, you got another order, do you? You got another Amazon,
Amazon Spain's come through?
Amazon's at the fucking door again.
that he should take profits
and this, that, and the other, I was the good friend who told him that he should have sold and this, that, and the other.
I was the good friend who told him
that he should have done that again.
Have you got any of those as well?
I mean, I'm kind of doing a little bit with Ether at the moment
where I'm like, oh, maybe I should just raise my targets.
Any trade which has gone well for you,
you're like, oh, I'm a liar.
That's how I handle most of my trades in general.
Except for Pump, which we never even had a chance to really be up on.
I mean, 160 is a big level, and we haven't gotten through it yet.
I'm watching it live here.
Looks like we're battling up against it. I'm watching it live here. Battling up against it.
This would be the most loved rally.
We talked about the most hated rallies.
And I think a lot of people were out of position on Pingu.
I think a lot are still out of position on SPX.
Definitely out of position on Rekt.
People were in position for Farcoin.
for CT. I'm telling you guys
I've been holding this position
For months. My patience shall be rewarded.
I can't believe I bought pump, dude.
Now I'm pissed. Everything's up.
The opportunity cost of being in the pump
trade is... I still think we win
over midterm. It's just the up cost.
Clement is sold, though though this weekend, right?
He somehow managed to put it in both the local top and the local bottom.
I don't understand how he does it.
But I think I'm just going gonna leave you with a few questions
let's all give our targets a far coin spx punks versus dick point
pups i think pups pups goes up a little bit and i think we deserve to talk about it
and also just go through anything in your open sea wallet and let's let's let's ask for
the targets from the audience you know Sounds like a fun show to me.
I think we're going to see him next week
It's 4K this week while he's not with us.
I think that actually is going to happen.
Mando's so funny. Mando talks the most shit.
You know he's up a lot when he's just talking shit.
His tweet about Iranians, his tweet about Israel taking out Iran,
about me and Cyrus, that's when you know the UP&L is ridiculous.
He tried to close on Friday.
We're like, you don't close that.
Maybe he owes us at least 5% of his trade, right?
thank you, OOS, 5% of your ETH trade
for saving you from closing it on Friday.
Anyways, what else is there?
I know we have five more minutes until our guests are going to be here.
What else is worth carving?
There's so much going on.
People need to see the Doge chart.
We've been talking for a long time.
It really hasn't done anything, and now it's starting to do something.
37% move on the week, which to put that in perspective, it's a $42 billion meme coin.
So that's $14 a $42 billion meme coin. So that's
$15 billion. That's effectively
the market cap of everything else.
basically added in a week.
The overall meme coin market cap, I tweeted the chart
out this morning. It's looking
pretty good. 72% from the chart out this morning. It's looking pretty good.
72% from the lows, July 5th.
And the Doge bulls are back in my timeline.
They're calling for a dollar this run.
I see this as an extremely positive thing in the industry, right?
You want those bulls up, Shaib. Then it goes down. They even go down the risk curve, too, because they play other memes as industry, right? Like you want those bulls up,
They even go down the risk curve too because they play other memes as well, right?
I mean, it's a wealth effect.
Doge is what led the meme coin rally
and then we had the meme,
peak was in January. I was DMing
chit-chatting, like, yo, what's your thoughts on
markets? When it first ran
and then he was telling me,
and he talks about this a lot, he's
convinced that you need a DogeRite.
He's like, there's no far coin at $10
or this stuff without that DogeRite. His whole thesis is around Dogecoin. He's like, there's no Farcoin at $10 or this stuff without that Dogecoin.
thesis is around Dogecoin.
I know he's bullish about Floki and stuff. Again, it says
the typical ones are Doge, Sheep, Floki.
Actually, how's Sheep? I haven't looked at
the Sheba chart in forever. I don't really
pay attention to that. Is that up as well with
Dogecoin? It's up $9.5 billion.
I feel like it's up 17% a week.
This feels like one of those stable memes
when everything else moves up.
take a second to show people
this shit? Do you guys understand
how insane these runs get?
I don't think people realize,
Tyler, how insane things get.
Oh, no, the weekly doesn't work out.
I don't think people understand.
That's a weekly candle that ran to $50 billion.
I'll put a three-day candle because it kind of doesn't make sense.
Let's go back on a daily.
I don't think people realize the wealth effects
of these bull markets when they happen, right?
Like this is absurd, Tyler.
This thing went from Monday, October 4th
from 2.75 billion to October 28th.
So I'm talking about 24 days to 54 billion.
We're talking about 24 days, Tyler.
It's very hard to fathom.
It's extremely hard to fathom.
I don't think people understand. These effects,
Obviously, you don't time
this usually, but still, you could have
Dogecoin was a 60-plus bill from this.
It's all a matter of a couple of weeks.
So things can happen quick.
And you usually have these pockets of time to be able to catch as much upside on the trade.
And then you don't get these big runs again.
And I think those are the times where you really...
Sometimes your best happens maybe twice, three times a year.
And there's a two or three trades a year that you need to make your whole year.
So it's good to pay attention to, to these pockets of time.
Anyways, what, what else? I mean, wow.
I mean, we've been talking about the genius acts.
I don't think we need to get through it.
The big news from Friday was that it's just official.
And then the second effect is we've already got Tether and Paolo saying,
hey, we're going to figure out a new stable coin that meets your regulations.
This is coming from Tether, the number one stable coin in the world.
I like that shout out to Paolo from President Trump after 10 years of FUD.
I thought that was kind of like an iconic
moment for crypto in general.
It's like all this FUD against
USDT, Tether, Tether FUD's like
a thing, right? And then you got that
Paolo mention out there. I thought that was cool.
thing is just like signaling crypto more
mainstream. We had some payment in town
on my son's birthday this weekend.
grandmas were like saw like the crypto thing get signed and they know i that i'm in the crypto
business so like they brought it up and we're talking about it right so it's it's more common
it's more talked about than ever right which is another factor that doesn't drive immediate price
action but it is something that kind opens the door for bigger waves.
You absolutely love to see it.
What else did we miss before we go to our guest?
We can talk about the Coyote stuff later on.
I think we need a longer conversation on that.
I think if we want to get to our guests.
Just in, 20 minutes ago, it appears that
Polymarket just bought an exchange.
It just happened 20 minutes ago.
We'll talk about tomorrow, I guess,
Zoomified. Because I know you mentioned
Polymarket in your topics.
To re-enter the US market.
That is very interesting.
I'm trying to figure out.
I guess we kind of thought they were at the point where they were going to be able to
I thought they would get a DCM, yeah.
I mean, you know, they gave a DCM, like I said last week, to predict it in another one, Real Bird.
So I think this is going to accelerate.
I don't know if you saw, I shared an article this weekend about more regulatory framework being built around prediction markets, et cetera.
So this shit's going to accelerate.
Speaking of which, myriad of markets.
We're on pace, Tyler, to have our best month ever.
So we're at $1.3 million of volume.
Best month is one and a half in April.
And we're, what, nine days left, 10 days left of the month.
And we're on pace to have our best day ever today with 140K in volume in 24 hours.
But it looks like we're looking good here.
Miriam's looking good here.
So we definitely pay uh, pay attention.
Speaking of paying attention, speaking of attention, let's get TP in the house.
Thanks for working on us.
You know, we love cracking.
We love cracking here at Rug Radio.
We've been working with cracking for a long time.
And, uh, it's always a pleasure, uh, to have uh on on air with uh tp video first we have a couple
questions you know lined up for you of course but first i want you to give yourself a little
introduction what you do over at kraken sure i've been uh working with kraken for almost eight years
now well a lot of different roles um but more recently working in a kind of like business operations, economist capacity.
I also did a lot of work on global corporate strategy, but I spent a lot of my time right now on kind of like special projects.
Okay, that's really cool.
Well, eight years, that's a lot.
That's a lot longer than that.
I mean, Kraken is like one of the first exchanges, right?
You guys have been around 2011. Yeah, the company's been around since 2011.
We're actually, I think, celebrating our 14th anniversary this week, I believe.
Whoa. Yeah, it's close to the 10th anniversary of Ethereum. That's very close. I love that.
Dude, you got to get us Jesse Powell on the show, man like i'm a big fan jay powell you know not jerome
powell but you know jesse jesse's a fucking legend this is for those who don't know it's
the founder of kraken's like one of the earliest like cyber funks you know this this guy's like
early crypto he used to hang around clubhouse pretty reachable on twitter you might be able
to catch him there i think he follows me and i'm pretty sure I slid, but maybe my slide is a popular guy.
But also, I was asking him during the whole last administration, blah, blah, blah, all the bullshit.
But anyway, Thomas, let's talk about some stuff that you guys got going on.
I mean, we've seen a lot of the tailwinds come together recently.
ETF inflows, corporate treasury activities, renewed policy momentum.
You know, Kraken is always there, your CEO, et cetera.
I think you guys were at the summit too, if I'm not mistaken, when I was there.
So I absolutely love to see that.
How would you describe, like, you know, what's happening in this market at this point?
And, like, what do you see, like, how does this move sustain itself?
Like, what's the most important things that you see here in this market?
Yeah, I think when I, when I break down this kind of question, it's important with any
commodity kind of have to treat both the demand and supply side separately.
And so let's start with the supply side.
It's really, I think, grounded in last year's having event in April of 2024.
I called it the most symbolic in Bitcoin's history at the time.
And the reason is quite simple.
It was the halving that came with the most simplified narrative
for the adopter of Bitcoin.
So for example, as of right now,
about 94% of all Bitcoins that will ever exist
There's only 6% left to come.
Supply inflation is at 0.8% per year.
It's only going down from here with
each halving cycle. And so when you think about the typical average investor or even institutional
investor, those kinds of data points just really quickly, easy to digest and support that kind of
adoption narrative. And of course, it's setting the backdrop for all the institutional adoption
we've seen over the last year and a half, including through the Bitcoin ETFs. Now let's talk about like the demand cycle. This year,
coming into this year, we definitely expected macroeconomic and geopolitical environment to be
like very influential. You have things like economic shocks, monetary policy, even geopolitical
events impacting risk appetite in a lot of different ways. But the biggest pieces that
I think you can really point to and identify as the greatest sources of single spot demand for
Bitcoin are going to be from the ETFs, which have had $20 billion of cumulative net inflows year to
date. For Bitcoin alone, $5 billion for Ethereum. And then MicroStrategy, which has bought about
$15 billion of spot Bitcoin year to date as well. And you have dozens of these treasury vehicles now coming into the market and buying some more Bitcoin. And so that's where you're seeing a lot of that demand and a lot of that interest come into play.
bit, the tariff discussion falling away a little bit, crypto policy also on a leg up. These are
all things that support that kind of environment for risk on investor appetite into coming into
crypto. So all those things kind of line up to what I would say is a pretty healthy risk on
fairly aggressively positioned market right now. Yeah, no, this is awesome. I'm feeling, well,
I mean, we are, you know, Tyler's with the green bulls hat We're feeling this is a pretty bullish show Thomas
We we have never found a way to be bearish
So it's uh, it's been it's been quite wild speaking of this like I think like
I mean I don't think a lot of us driving the price higher at the moment
think a lot of what's driving the price higher at the moment, especially on Bitcoin and Ethereum
Especially on Bitcoin Ethereum has been these treasury companies, right?
has been these treasury companies, right? Especially with Ethereum. Now you've seen
Tom Lee's on the timeline chatting with Arthur Hayes and yeah, I want to send this thing to
$5,000 this week, right? This is pretty crazy. We have all these vehicles coming along.
Now you hear about Litecoin vehicles, you know, hype vehicles, NFT treasury. Like you hear about
a bunch of things, a bunch of rumblings of things coming on.
You have the ETFs, et cetera.
Everything, of course, inspired by that MicroStrategy one.
So like this dealer hedging, right?
So like, how do you think dealer hedging
But also, especially with MicroStrategy, et cetera,
this aggressive Bitcoin accumulation,
how do you feel about all that?
You know, my personal take when it comes to crypto markets is it's an open and free market.
So anyone should be able to buy it.
For what it's worth, I'm not the biggest fan of governments owning crypto or buying crypto, for example.
But I don't see any reason why or I don't have any position as to why they should be prevented from doing so altogether.
So if you're a free market, let's say a champion,
With respect to like these vehicles specifically,
you know, one thing that I think about
when it comes to like market positioning
is trying to identify are there areas of any kind of
or soft spots of like leverage in the system
that aren't really like in your face or appearance.
So an example, last market
cycle, you know, 2021, 22, if you looked at some of the reports from Genesis, the trading desk
that went under, their loan markets corresponded with market peaks. So they had the highest amount
of active loans outstanding around the times where Bitcoin and other assets were hitting market cycle
peaks. And so naturally speaking, I'm looking at these vehicles,
I'm asking myself, are there any kind of weird areas of leverage?
Are they doing a lot of debt financing?
Are they doing anything that seems unsustainable?
And one of the things that I focus on in particular right now
is actually the use of leverage in options markets behind these vehicles.
So vehicles like IBIT or MicroStrategy,
you actually have a very large option market around these names. MicroStrategy in particular
is perhaps like probably a top five most active option market across US listed equities in general.
And so when I look at specifically is a metric, it's a pretty long name, but I call it a net delta adjusted open interest notional
value. So what that is basically saying, hey, if I look at all the outstanding call options and put
options on a stock, what is the value of those options in stock equivalent terms? So are people
net long or net short a company via options? And relative to the
market cap, how much of the value is kind of locked up in this options market? And for names
like MicroStrategy, it's in the high teens as a percentage of market cap. And that tends to be
probably a little bit higher than average, but their peak is more around like 30%. For a name
like iBit, we're actually in record territory right now. So we're in the low teens as a percentage of
iBit's market cap. Six months ago, it was more like 5%. So we've almost like doubled or tripled
the value of that option market in that name alone. And so that tells me, again, I think
the current market is a little bit on the aggressive side in terms of positioning,
because there's that kind of risk on appetite. but it doesn't at the same time suggest that there's something super unsustainable.
I'll give you one more data point here.
If I track this metric on names like GameStop or AMC back in 2021, where you had that crazy
bull market, that metric was as high as like 40 to 50%.
That's like real meme stock on sustainable territory.
What's your, because you sound like you know what you're talking about here.
Like what's your timeline here on this market?
I kind of have a, I created these like market cycle rules of thumb last year around the having
event and uh it's there's not much science or statistics behind it because you've only had
a few having events so it's not like you can really point to it and say it's going to work
every time uh but typically my my rules of thumb are market cycles tend to play out for bitcoin
and for other cryptos 12 to 18 months post having.
We're already 15 months in, so we're kind of mature in that respect.
But I'm thinking like maybe end of this year could be something where we start to recalibrate the market position.
Volatility tends to be much higher.
So market peaks tend to see volatility for Bitcoin and other assets as high as like 100%.
in the last 30 days. That's super low for Bitcoin standards, even historically.
Market cycle peaks also coincide with a lot of rapid fire all-time highs. So we're talking like
15, 20 days of all-time highs in like a month period. And we've only had three or four. And the last bit
here is going to be dominance. Usually a market cycle peak happens when dominance for Bitcoin
market cap is actually quite low, around 30 to 40%. Right now it's 60%. So Bitcoin is still like
very, very strong relative to all these other currencies. And that is to say that I haven't
seen that kind of speculative trend play out, which is Bitcoin does really well. And then people start rotating into that kind of higher risk,
higher reward plays in altcoins and whatnot. So all to say, I don't think it's really played out
yet. I think there's still room to run. And with crypto, the really interesting thing is that
supply just doesn't respond to price. It's not like you can create more Bitcoin just because the price is higher
any more than the mining is going to allow for.
you can really have crazy price outcomes.
Tyler, we're getting pulled up for you, man.
I want access to his metrics.
I wish I had the acronym that you mentioned
for how you're evaluating micro-strategy.
Yeah, how do we access these metrics?
I'll read about it a little bit.
Yeah, that'd be very interesting.
And the reason I think it's even more so now is everyone I'm talking to who's following the Treasury Co-Trade,
they think, how do you think about it?
How do you evaluate these companies?
Why are some stronger than others?
And it's such a new trade it's hard
to have much science behind it but i think there's just a very huge lack of data points to look at at
all other than like m nav ratios to market cap yeah so i mean any any info i think would be
greatly appreciated especially yeah i'll write about it some more i think um i think michael
sailor talks about it quite a bit i mean if you listen to some of his longer presentations, he talks about micro strategies ranking in terms of options activity, for example, and this concept that volatility is the product that he's trying to sell across a lot of different vehicles within that business.
that business. And I think that's one where, you know, when you look at the options market itself,
it is by design, it's a product built around volatility. And so it tends to have a lot of
like hidden signals that people don't really think about too much.
Can I ask you an off the wall question real quick? I see that you're an amateur astronomer
in your bio. Something that's jumped out to me just in the past 12 months.
The moon cycles, the full moon.
Have you done any analysis
but there is someone internally
who follows it very closely.
And there's like a science behind it.
A lot of people spend a lot of time thinking about it.
But no, I have not looked at moon cycles and how it corresponds with Bitcoin prices.
Where's Mare in this cycle?
We've been following this full moon shit.
I'm telling you, every time it's full moon,
like this market goes crazy.
you're an amateur astronomer.
We need you out there fucking looking at the charts like that.
we need more of that content here.
I know we're coming up on time.
We got one more question for you.
you're talking heavily about Bitcoin here.
now we've seen it's like other publicly traded companies where treasuries, allocate plans for for Ethereum, Solana, like I said, Hyda, like all this other stuff.
Could this set up the same kind of reflexive rally we've seen from Bitcoin?
Because we talk about this a lot.
I mentioned it again this morning.
I was like, Ethereum could catch a bid like the last year of Bitcoin here.
So don't discount this, right?
And we've seen it, but it's just played catch up.
It's just 4K in a way. We're not even out of time yet like what do you think could we see something
similar happen to other coins here you can i mean it happens every single cycle and it kind of
follows that just like over to simplify it that speculative trend that you just see naturally in
like trading behavior which is you you have this kingmaker asset that
leads the whole category that is Bitcoin and crypto. And then people say, okay, I've made
good money in Bitcoin. Let me rotate that into something that's higher risk that I can build
alpha against. And so they start going into the altcoins. And that's what I was talking about with
dominance. Right now we're at about 60% dominance. That's really high. That's, that's typically what you see at like market trough levels in general, like across
cycles. And markets usually peak around when Bitcoin dominance falls around 30 to 40%. So
it's a big Delta that we have yet to realize. And so when I think about some of these altcoin
vehicles, I think it naturally kind of plays in that trend of like, okay,
Now people are starting to focus their attention on what are the other kind of potential applications.
And if you look at prior cycles, you had things like DeFi Summer, the NFT boom, ICOs on Ethereum,
And these all corresponded around Bitcoin halvings and pickups in Bitcoin activity.
And so for me, when I think about the trends that
I'm most interested in that I think might actually pick up and help stimulate adoption in an
interesting way, personally, I think things like NFTs might have a bid to catch here.
I also think tokenized equities is a big field of play because that's something that's very
familiar. People understand equities and the idea that I'm now able to bring this kind
of new collateral vehicle.
almost like a different form of stable coin starting from zero.
we launched tokenized equities a few weeks ago.
The value of those equities have quadrupled in the last three weeks.
And then information markets,
you mentioned poly market earlier.
That's another one that I think, again, familiar product.
A lot of people understand it.
And they're starting to experiment with crypto platforms that are providing that.
And that gives them a natural bridge, if you will, to come into crypto and explore around.
And so that's when you start to bring that kind of momentum and activity into these like all vehicles.
Yeah, this is super cool.
I love that. Listen, listen big fan shout out to
kraken kraken pro the whole fam there make sure you check them out pro.kraken.com there are show
partners but they're also just a great and very trusted exchange in general great tools very good
ui and personally it's the only exchange i use for for off ramping when i off ramp once every
But the only bits I've used was you guys and honestly,
it's always been great. So thank you, Thomas, for
coming and shout out to you guys for being our partners.
Appreciate you guys. Thank you very much. I appreciate your time.
Also, Bongo's down there. Kraken's
the only ones with runes listed.
There you go. There you go. They got
Doc to the Moon on there. When Pups. Anyways, Thomas,
thank you so much for coming. Appreciate
because I'm two minutes late
Sims and I are both late,
quick breaking announcement.
I'm not going to get excited, Tyler.
I didn't wait 82 days for this breakout to get excited at 160.
Like, I'll start getting tingling
at like two. When I see a two in front,
but 82 fucking days of sideways,
I won. You won, motherfucker. You won. Congratulations., he's excited. Look at this. With the plank. I won. You won, motherfucker.
This guy's going crazy in the comments.
This guy's going fucking nuts in the comments.
Make an account using the FOMO Hour code, and you'll have a chance to win every single day.
Oh, and Tartin, I would do a more fun game for you because you sound super cool,
but I'm going to have to rip some Plinka for you because we really have to go
What did we do last time, Tyler?
50 balls is like a nice combo.
Untarden is so funny, bro.
First and foremost, congrats.
Let me take a screenshot of our money here.
All right, all right, all right.
Oh, there's one on the right.
There's one on the right.
There's one on the right.
Go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, go, get you paid. And with that, with that, with that, we'll see you tomorrow morning.
Turn to Mr. Sanda for the episode of a more
Let's go. Thank you. I'm gonna go.