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FOMO HOUR: Crypto’s Uptember Begins
Recorded: Sept. 2, 2025 Duration: 1:00:49Space Recording
Full Transcription
Thank you. GM, GM, everyone.
Thank you for joining us here this morning.
We're going to start the show in just a minute.
While we wait, a couple shout-outs.
Belfort, Bongo, GM, Burndog, GM, GM.
Who else we got?
Goons, Anzabar, Mark, GM, Castro, CJ, Harry, Krishna, Kip, KLB, the rec guys.
Big day.
NASDAQ.
NASDAQ X-Rect.
How about that?
Sharon, thank you for joining us.
All right.
Charlie, whenever you're ready, let's kick it. Thank you. GM, everyone, and welcome to another episode of FOMO Hour.
Today is Tuesday, September 2nd, 2025.
Finally, it is September. August is over.
September, historically, a very red month for crypto.
Seems like most people are bracing for that, perhaps positioned for that.
But we're here. We're trying to manifest up timber for you all.
And we're going to talk about how that happens here on today's show.
No Farouk, he's traveling. He'll be back tomorrow.
But we got Logan in the house. We got Mando in the house as well.
Let me get him up on stage.
Gentlemen, GM, how are you doing?
Mando.
It feels good to be in the top 75 accounts on CT.
I think Faroq has crashed out of being included on the list.
There's been an investigation.
There's been a complaints department.
He's been,
going after us posting about it in all the chats,
but Tyler,
I saw you on there.
So I just want to congratulate you as a,
as a fellow nominee.
Were you in the a list or the B list?
I think B right.
I was B list.
A little bit harsh to call those ABC.
Like you're not a B account.
You know what I mean?
And like,
I always have everything's in the D account. And I'm like, that're not a B account. You know what I mean? And like, OSF is in the D account.
And I'm like, that doesn't really read that well.
Just call it the top 10, the top 25, the top 40, 50,
whatever you want to call it.
But don't, A, B, C, D is a bit harsh.
Yeah.
Just the number rankings would have been a little smoother,
but I think he was going perhaps for a little bit of controversy
and he got it.
But I think my message this morning is if you're not in the top 75 accounts don't
don't bother messaging me yeah why would you who even are you on this app if you've been on the
top 75 yeah if you guys don't need me i'll i'm happy to step okay i think you've got potential
thanks for oak is a multi-cyccycler not making it on the list.
It's tough.
It's tough.
If you're not on ZachXBT's list and you're not getting paid for your shills,
and if you're not on Threadguys list and you're not on the top 75,
what are you doing as a KOL?
It's time to reevaluate things.
I'm on both. i saw people uh people were spinning up bots to block everyone on the zack xbt list people
are taking these lists very seriously oh wow um and farroke sorry interviewing trump wasn't enough
to get you on trump cz and toshi beat him to it. Maybe next year.
Maybe if you grind hard enough this year,
you can make it to Thread Guys 2026.
Top KOL list.
We're going to talk about more than Thread Guys KOL list today.
We're going to keep peppering him, though, I'm sure.
We're going to talk about the market report.
It looks like a nice little green swing on today's Open
after what was a pretty uneventful weekend.
We had Trump's World Liberty 5, the token, debuted.
A bit of a rollercoaster start.
We'll talk the bull and bear case for that token.
Revenant, August.
Some big protocols and some big all-time highs.
We'll hit those.
Saylor, Tom Lee are buying.
Sharplink is buying.
Now there's a new Soldat.
Buying 2 million sold up.
We'll hit that.
Linea is opening for pre-market trading.
Institutions are buying wrecked.
How about that?
Pweez.
Did you even say Pweez?
Pumping.
I'm not having this.
I'm not having this, Tyler.
All right?
That is the most shilling your own bag possible that we're talking about Pweez.
Do you or do you not own some Pui's?
I bought Pui's last night, yes.
Unbelievable.
And it makes it onto your posts.
Trump posted yesterday he's alive,
playing golf.
You're still like, it's up.
Speculation over his health, guys.
It's true.
That is objectively true.
Everything I said is a part of reality.
How can you look yourself in the mirror as a top 75 account on CT?
How do you think I got that?
Exactly.
But Yeet approaching 500 million volume.
And then I also,
we got to talk a little bit about this prediction markets and sports.
But Koushi did 150 million
volume this weekend, just insane numbers. And now Underdog is throwing their hat in the ring as well.
We've got a lot to talk about. We'll get into it all on today's show. Before we get started,
shout out to our partners. First up, Wallet Connect. Wallet Connect is the connectivity
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All right, that is our intro.
I don't know.
Do we have the intro music today, Charlie?
If so, let's get right into the Mando report.
Who is the man, macro daddy of the land? end the report. GM, everyone, so it's been three days, I guess,
hasn't it? If you had
logged off for that three days, I think
prices would have been roughly
the same. Bitcoin's
maybe slightly higher. I think Ether is slightly lower, same. Bitcoin's maybe slightly higher.
I think ETH is slightly lower.
And Solana's maybe slightly higher, I would guess, on those three over that long weekend.
Feels like the ETH trade is the one losing some momentum.
I think, at least on this show, we have been calling for that rotation to Bitcoin, I think, is the move for the next month, maybe two months here.
I think Solana's looking okay still.
I still like JLP.
JLP still dangerously close to all-time highs.
But yeah, I like that trade.
The biggest gain is, would say pump, pump
fun back up to around 4 billion.
I think just the revenue numbers is getting people interested in that one.
You saw a decent move higher in, Oh God, it's not really a lot else.
Is there?
Uh, I guess while Liberty financial was probably the biggest launch of this period.
And that came in at, that has come in at 20, it was at 40 billion pre-launch in the pre-market.
I do think these pre-market, they like to liquidate the shorts.
So I think these things will trade higher pre-market and then uh probably get a bit
nasty after that um and we kind of saw that but it did launch at 30 30 billion and then i think
me and tyler have been speaking about before and i was like look they're only releasing five percent
of the supply i mean this is buy Then they released 25% of the supply.
And seemingly there were some people who were selling that 25% unlocked.
I think Justin Sun tweeted out, you know, we're not going to sell our bags anytime soon.
But there was a lot of coins being sent to centralized exchanges which was not a good look
uh and it just dumped all the way down to 20. uh then bounced but it's now just it's like holding
on above 20. i bought some at 25 and a half actually um was up for about 30 minutes then was
down uh got out at 24 uh Lost some money on that one.
I think this is a short.
That's my general sense on this coin, actually.
Having looked at it,
I...
Yeah, I don't think it's that strong a point.
Did you see the new governance post?
It's just an idea, I believe.
But they want to use
liquidity fees to buy back and burn.
Yeah, but like,
who cares? I guess that's my point.
It's just like, it's not going to be anywhere close
to, I mean, you're going to,
if it's a buy back and burn, you're going to try
and use that as the valuation. It is
vastly overvalued, right?
I think the main thing was
that this was going to be some form of like
coordinated pump that was the value for this like they're going to trump this coin right
they're going to do what they did with trump and this is going to go up to 50 and then bleed out
everyone just sold there was no coordinated pump yeah if they'd been for only five percent of the market value
uh circulating i think they could have really pumped it and actually done much better
but uh yeah just i think this thing is going to go lower that's my that's my gut here yeah that
was my gut read too it was a tough call and i mean when you were going long i didn't hate that long call that at that point i
mean it was already down what 30 from from pre-market more closer to four right yeah i put
it 25 and a half i was like okay well i'm not gonna lose that much money here and then and then
i thought also the circulating would be locked up at least right right? But it wasn't. And it was just getting dumped.
And I get the feeling it's going to continue to be dumped.
You'll see pumps maybe, but I think this one is a – this one's heading long.
Again, just my gut.
They'll probably see some Sport 20 again and bounce around there for a little bit. But there wasn't anything in here that tells me this is going to keep. I also think weirdly, like,
and this is completely as a hedge for the rest of like your book,
potentially.
If there's one coin that is the hedge for anything going wrong with Trump,
it's this coin.
Think about where this coin goes in that scenario versus like Bitcoin or anything like that.
So if you're looking for like, oh, I want to be long everything, but I'm scared that Trump's going to like not be with us or something's going to happen with his health.
But this is kind of like I was just thinking to myself, why would I ever want to be long this coin?
It looks overvalued on metrics.
And if anything was to happen about a Trump presidency or they were to lose a midterm
or you know like anything like that i feel like it's i know it feels very precarious i'm much
the trump meme in that scenario do you know what i mean it's like i know that sounds strange but
like the trump the trump meme is like it's going to be more iconic i think for a lot longer than
this uh so yeah that's just don't take that as like anything too serious like of course is going to be more iconic I think for a lot longer than this.
Don't take that as anything too serious.
Of course.
Just like telltale stuff but I was thinking to myself
I don't know why I could ever bring myself
to want to be long miss
because it would just be the scenario
of you could just get eviscerated
and I don't know why it's going higher than that.
I think part of the challenge
you laid out in the bull cases like this is another trump trade it's trump family protocol
they've got big allies who are going to sink money into this it's always going to have attention
but when you think about any of the fundamentals that's where it starts to
When you think about any of the fundamentals,
that's where it starts to really fall apart, right?
So Aave's 5 million FDV and World Liberty 5 opened at 40, still at 23.
So it's still 4.5x bigger than Aave.
And then when you introduce things like the buybacks,
maybe first-degree thinking is that's good,
but then the second-degree thinking is, oh oh shit, now you're going to actually be
measured on real metrics and real revenue.
And I don't know that we have,
do we even have insight?
Is the protocol even live?
Like Logan, honestly, I don't know about this.
Buybacks is bearish, all right?
There's no way that the Trump family
is going to make as much as hyperliquid
or pump fund, right?
They're not
making hundreds of millions a month on this and if they were they're definitely not using it for
buybacks you'll get like a million here or there i reckon if that's going to be the case right
yeah they are sorry the main bull case here is is the stable coin but then i think it kind of
falls apart after that yeah that's all i was going to add is to my knowledge,
there's nothing to do aside from the connection to the USD1 stablecoin, right?
But yeah, so what buybacks?
I don't know.
I mean, how would they even generate any anytime soon?
Yeah, and it says it's based off of their liquidity pools for ETH, BSC,
or their liquidity positions on Ethereum, BSC, and Solana.
But yeah, I get it.
So they're buying back a $23 billion token
with Uniswap fees.
Yeah.
All right.
I've actually got to go.
I'm really sorry.
But other than that,
I think we're going higher, guys.
I posted it today.
I think I called for an all-time high on ETH by the end of the summer.
We got it.
Now I'm calling the Bitcoin all-time high by the end of October.
I think if you make profits in this month, take them.
Take them because it will be very volatile.
So if you're up a lot one day, take the profits, rotate it into Bitcoin.
Keep on doing that.
You'll have a great month.
I like it. Well, M profits, rotate it into Bitcoin. Keep on doing that. You'll have a great month. I like it.
Well, Mando, thanks for joining us briefly this
morning.
Logie, how do you feel about it?
It's been a month since we've talked.
Just kind of zooming out, crypto majors.
Everyone's seemingly
max bearish. I don't know if folks saw this.
Fear and greed. 39.
You know, and mando leaving on that note has me in that that buffett phase right the the classic be uh be greedy when others are
fearful that kind of seems how mando's feeling right now i feel okay uh you know just broadly
speaking it of course stinks to see the shrink from what, like 125, ETH creeping up on all-time
high. But I've been around a while. There's still plenty of stuff going on. Of course,
summer winding to an end. Ghost month, right? There's lots of reasons perhaps for some caution,
but otherwise I feel okay. I'm not too concerned.
I keep buying Bitcoin weekly like I have been doing for quite some time.
I just hope it goes up in the long term.
I'm not sweating the small stuff at this point in time.
I like that.
Yeah, I'm still positioned long. I feel like we're already starting to see a shift.
Maybe this is just because I'm also personally impacted by this.
Kids are back in school.
It's the first day after Labor Day.
We shipped them off.
We took pictures with my son.
It's a half day, full day tomorrow.
By next week, the kids will be in their new routine.
And what that means is parents are getting back to the desk.
Vacations are over.
I know the Euros are still in Ibiza, but back in the U.S., folks are getting back to the desk. Vacations are over. I know the euros are still in Ibiza, but back in the US, folks are getting back to the desk and back to business.
And it feels like the bid is going to start coming and people are going to catch up on
what's been happening this summer. And it's Bitcoin treasury codes and debts. It's ETH treasury
codes and now Solana treasury codes. We'll get into that later on. I feel good in the longs.
I've been protecting. I've got a cheeky Bitcoin long. I've been protecting it because I do think
it goes higher. It could go lower before. I mean, I've seen calls for like 104K support.
Some people think it's going to lose 100. It feels a little less likely now. I've got this
market up for Miria. This is actually a really interesting one again um big window 125k or 105k
next you can get 3x on your money at 125 which at one point it was 94 because big one hit 124 it
hit like 124 and a half um and then like on the no side like of course like this is correctly
priced it got to 107.5 over this weekend right So like the 105 K side looks great at that point in time.
Yeah.
It's interesting again.
Yeah.
I saw what Mando's tweet.
It's a one.
He's a one 50 or he just say new all time high.
He just said new all time high.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Okay.
Sure.
Yeah.
I like,
you know,
I like to be on the long side anyway.
A little cringy to go short.
It just doesn't feel right, right, rooting against in some way.
It's the same as betting, and we'll talk about this probably a little later,
but betting the unders on player props and stuff like that.
Of course, they're the sharper side most of the time,
but it's no fun rooting for people to miss shots and stuff like that.
Of course.
I feel Dirty Evens having the under on game lines.
I like to root for points and tokens to go up in price.
That is me.
I've got the center market ETH up to 5K next to $3,500.
It's pretty much square in the middle.
The market's leaning heavier towards yes, just because, I mean, again,
I hit $4,950.
And we're well above that 3,500
barrier still. We never really got within 20% of that. So the yes sides have been feeling a little
safer. Perhaps going into this a bit more, we did get news out of both of the main ETH treasury
codes this morning. Tom Lee and crew now have $9 billion in crypto plus cash,
which includes 1.87 million ETH tokens.
So just a crazy amount.
The velocity, the sustained pace has been very impressive on this.
Yeah.
170,000?
Yeah, go ahead.
Yeah, a lot of this is from the – so I wrote a piece about this last week,
and it's a little, not necessarily misleading, but, you know, a really talking about the, or at least I haven't
seen people talking about the, the alchemy of 5% there. They want to have 5% of the ETH supply.
Yeah. And they're charging towards it like rather quickly, relentlessly. I mean, very sailor like,
right. In terms of how committed they are to this cause of getting 5%. I don't, you know,
I don't know why I haven't necessarily seen or heard Tom explain why 5%. You know, I've heard
him talk, of course, about network security and things like that. He was talking about that in
the very, very beginning, right, as well. I don't exactly know why the 5%. It's not outlined,
at least in any of the investor presentations. I haven't listened to some of the new ones,
but the presentations, the PowerPoint powerpoints themselves it's not indicated
exactly why they want five percent but nevertheless they're charging for it uh it is cool that they
have these maybe it's not so cool for traders but both uh bitmine and sharplank have these tangible
milestone goals that everybody knows about i do like the transparent i'm a transparency maxi so
i do like that right sharp link going for the 1 million eth as their kind of first milestone
um bit mine wants 5 of the supply it's kind of nice to know 5 is 5 million
oh geez i don't even know uh it's got to be around there yeah because they were at 1.6
or something prior to this so that tracks tracks. Total supply is 120 million.
So 6 million.
Am I doing that?
Yeah, so 6 million.
So where are they at?
They're at, they've got almost 2 million.
So they're 30% of the way there.
Yeah.
If you think they can get there,
If you think they can get there, then that's still a whole lot of buy pressure to come.
then that's still a whole lot of buy pressure to come.
And I think Google's probably a little outdated here on this market cap number
because we know they've been issuing shares, right, to keep hitting this ATM.
It's got them at $8 billion.
So that would mean their MNAB is at like 0.9,
at like 0.9,
which is also the new trend for these debts
is they've been trending down to a 1 MNAB.
This has got 1.15 on the strategic ETH reserve side,
but they're saying it could be outdated.
SBET is at 1.02.
So if you're buying SBET stock,
you are effectively buying ETH.
And I mean, I kind of like it at one.
So I mean, I was buying it at higher MF to be clear.
If you think, this is where they get interesting in theory, right?
If you think Joe Lubin or Tom Lee had the ability to generate yield,
to use financial engineering tactics to increase their holdings,
then buying at one is an interesting play.
And of course, there's nothing wrong with just buying spot ETH.
Of course, that's still arguably the better route to go.
But from a trading perspective,
I think the trade is more interesting at 1X and NAS.
And there's people who think they're going to go below one.
And I mean, it's hard to argue with.
They effectively have already gotten there.
But if you think this trade is just beginning,
I'm betting we're going to see the MNAS go back up at some point.
And they're not just going to go sub 1 forever.
I'm curious if you have a read.
Yeah, no, I haven't been tracking that super, super closely.
So I don't really have a strong take there,
but I think you're right.
As it approaches one, as we get there,
it feels like more or less a coin flip
on whether or not you can just buy ETH
or buy one of these for the multiple,
the gain to be higher in the near future stumbling over some words there as i'm trying to
characterize that appropriately but i think it's okay beth to make um as it approaches one for
sure uh i can't remember where when we first started buying sharpening tower i don't know
where it was was it just above one i mean i started buying it like nine and then of
course it went on that crazy run right right and then so it hit i mean it would the mnab would
have been much it was probably at two or higher than two at 36 and it's been trending back down
um yeah and the price action has been rough for sure.
Especially like, is ETH green today?
Let's see.
ETH is down a percent, which is the other interesting aspect of this trade while we're
on this and we're going to move forward.
ETH Bitcoin is trending down a bit on a near-term timeframe.
So it's been up only effectively since the April bottom.
But Bitcoin is rebounding against ETH here.
So that's another aspect of this trade.
I'm sure we'll continue to monitor it.
There is a new entrant to this trade.
And let me find this here.
On the Solana side, Sharp's Technology,
STSS, they announced their dad
last week? Yeah, I think last week with a $400 million pipe.
Now they came out swinging.
$2 million sold they've already acquired,
which I believe puts them as the number one.
Sold that.
might be close is you pexy has quite a bit.
but yeah,
it's probably close.
Okay.
Yeah.
You pexy has more than,
I think they've got over a million.
So I take that back.
Not the number one,
but they've already got $400 million worth of sold.
So that was a huge buy.
So I think we're starting to see some of the drivers
for this recent Solana rally, right?
$400 million and buy pressure out of nowhere.
We'll do that.
So now looking at sold,
do you think more of these are coming?
And do you think the existing players
are going to keep buying more?
And I kind of feel,
it feels still early in the sold debt trade.
Curious for your read on that.
Yeah, it's interesting because we had some early, right?
UPEXI and DeFi Development Corp.
I mean, I don't know how long they've been around now.
It feels like April maybe.
That's like four or five months since those have been around.
But it does feel early, And I think largely Tyler,
it's just as a result of the headline shock,
right?
Like Tom Lee and Joe Lubin are in our sites every single day.
Sailor,
of course in our sites every single day.
Solana is just,
you know,
because probably because the underlying token,
like the sole token is not performed quite as admirably as,
you know,
Bitcoin or Ethereum.
You just haven't thought or um you know been talking about this quite as regularly so it does feel early despite the fact that a handful of notable ones have been around for quite some time
feels early and if you do get the surge it may feel even earlier you know if that makes any sense
if you the solana surge alongside the creation of some of these new ones,
you might be able to see kind of the run back of that.
What happened with BitMine,
what happened with Sharplink from like nine to 36 and, you know,
4X in like a week or two weeks as the underlying starts to rise alongside it.
So yeah, I think it feels early.
I've got the handy dashboard from BlockWorks and shout out to BlockWorks and
crew, this treasury company dashboard. I think it is the best one've got the handy dashboard from Blockworks. And shout out to Blockworks and crew.
This treasury company dashboard, I think it is the best one that I've seen, that I've come across.
So UPEXI number one sold.
They've got 2 million sold.
So, yeah, I guess what we said was correct.
STSS, they're not on the list yet.
But when they make the list, they've got 2 million as well.
So they are effectively tied at the top.
For some reason, I thought UPEXI had it closer to a billion.
So we've got three players right around that 2 million soul mark now. So what we want to see, if you're in the soul trade,
is you want to see them battle battle the battle to 10 million.
Will that be on?
So this is a new area to watch.
Mando kind of went here.
I want to plug you into this, Con.
The other big story from the weekend, arguably from the past month, I was taking a look at that this morning, is the revenue numbers from August.
And this isn't perfect because this is the past 30 days.
So this is from August 2nd to September 1st in theory.
But Hyperliquid, $102 million.
They're all-time high for a month.
I think a smashing all-time high.
Pump at $47 million.
And ENA at $77 million in revenue.
And I think what gets more interesting, if you look at the seven-day,
the hyperliquid bulls aren't going to want to see this.
ENA, $53 million, 2.5x the revenue of hyperliquid.
And then hyperliquid and POMP, not that far off.
Again, POMP is within 50% of hyperliquid in revenue on the week and on the month. And on
the day, it's even more. So my question for you, Logie, well, let's round this out. I tweeted this billion FDV. And pump is trading at
3.8 billion FDV.
So hyperliquid
X as expensive as pump
with 2 X the
revenue. So
what's mispriced here?
Something's off because we're in revenue
meta both of these companies these crypto protocols are doing buybacks with 100 of the revenue pretty
much and pump hasn't necessarily outlined that specifically but they're doing it hyperliquid's
doing it as well i just looked at the revenue numbers it doesn't make sense to me something's
yeah well hyperliquid's been doing it for a little bit longer.
It does feel more established, perhaps a bit more stable, right,
in those revenue numbers.
I'm not sure we can say the meme coin or the launchpad wars are over,
but they feel like they're probably over, right?
So Pump.Fun may be settling back into this stabilization of, like,
what will revenues actually look like?
You know, now that perhaps incentives are lowered elsewhere and it's back to being the top dog.
To answer your question, it does feel like pump is probably a little undervalued.
The one thing that keeps me like, I don't know, away from being completely convicted in saying that it's just the reliance upon Solana.
Right. Whereas hype can benefit from price going up, from price going down. away from being completely convicted and saying that it's just the reliance upon Solana, right?
Whereas hype can benefit from price going up from price going down.
And I don't mean just on the hype token.
I mean like the trading benefits from absurd trading.
It doesn't matter if it's sharp to the downside or sharp to the upside,
wherever there is trading, wherever there is volatility, hype really benefits from that in generating generating those trading fees, which ultimately, of course, adds to Hype buybacks.
So the reliance on Pumps, Pumps reliance on Solana is the only thing that has me like a little leery of suggesting it is 100% the undervalued token here when compared to Hype.
the undervalued token here when compared to hype.
Though, just looking at those revenue numbers of late,
maybe it's a little bit of like a leading indicator
to a certain degree, right?
That it has closed that gap compared to hype
and it has some room to run
to the upside of the near term.
I think if you were asking me near term,
I would rather own Pump.
I don't own Pump.
I do own Hype, just full disclosure.
But I think I would rather own Pump for the very, very near term at this point in time.
Seems like you should rotate.
Yeah.
Well, I'm not doing too much super active trading.
Sure.
One of the nice, easy things is that, like I said, in either direction, Hype feels okay.
Right?
Like, whatever.
The downturnss the consolidations
i'm not too worried about it uh the the fact that it's established itself as this behemoth i mean
it's really tough to unwind that type of behavior for users they're gonna be trading on hyper liquid
like forever now probably right um so i don't see hype going anywhere that's why it's kind of just
an easy an easy hold and you know i am tyler i'm really bad about buying stuff back i don't really have
the trader mentality of like being able to go in and out of assets uh very very quickly if i sell
something it's hard for me to go back and buy it so it's easier for me just to hold hype and then
not you know not feel like a dunce when uh i didn't buy it back and it goes up like 100x or
whatever yeah that's fair and i'm with you it is hard to re-enter positions this is not me fighting
hyperliquid any by any means i think in fact i'm i think pump is undervalued comparatively i think
that's a pretty easy bull case to be made that we're in this new revenue meta again that's like
it's funny that we're even saying that revenue meta is a new thing but it kind of is um and they're doing buybacks they're trading at 112 the market cap with
50 of the revenue and guess what i don't think the meme coin trade is going anywhere like this is the
in fact this is the slowest time of the year for the meme coin market and i think it's going to likely ramp up in q4 i think it would
be premature is probably the wrong word i don't think that the meme coin trade is going to zero
no it can't go to zero it's too much of like a culture news trade i mean i think actually the
prediction market stuff's probably been good for, you know, not necessarily good for like actual trench meme coin runners, but it's just the proliferation of financializing news and stuff, which is where a lot of the meme coins came from.
Just making that an everyday part of life.
It's just another outlet.
So I think it does sort of establish and helps pump to a degree that we're betting and gambling on literally everything right because people people
want to have an opportunity to do that you can do it on the prediction markets now
you can do it with meme coin runners it's like a validation of that as a financialized
bet or you know whatever you want to say as meme coins and news being a thing and pop culture being
a thing so there's still no better or easier way to hit like a 10 X plus. There isn't.
Except for if you try right now,
you probably aren't going to do it.
It's hard.
I don't say that because it's as hard as ever as bad,
but like compared to other areas,
I mean,
yeah,
you can hit it on a,
even like on a levered long,
you have to be to hit it an easy 10 X.
You have to have perfect timing.
You have to be like 20 X plus levered.
And then you're getting liquid.
You have massive liquidation risk,
which of course in the meme coin,
your risk just goes to zero.
So it's effectively the same.
Yeah, I don't know if you've been talking about it
on your calendar too much
about the Powerball stuff recently, right?
I mean, it's like up above a billion dollars.
People in my orbit,
normal people in my orbit
that don't participate with cryptocurrencies
they get all jacked up about the powerball being a million dollars you know what i mean
and of course the odds of winning are infinitesimal they're smaller than winning on a meme coin you
know of course but that gamble that jackpot that lottery type thing it's just it's within everybody
what if you win what if you win exactly and that And that is very much why meme coins are never going away.
And the metas will come and go.
Like I said, last time I was on here, which was, I don't know, maybe two or three weeks ago,
I think we talked a little bit about meme coins, of course.
And there still was no clear defined meta at that point in time.
In meme coins, that is.
Buyback meta, revenue meta was here, I think, still.
But that doesn't seem apparent to me.
And it might just be that my timeline is much different.
US Open is going on.
My timeline is very heavy tennis right now,
but there is no clear meme coin meta.
We might need some distinct meta to really kick things off
and perhaps chilling temperatures,
people going inside and staying inside a little bit longer,
maybe that'll bring it here in the near future.
I agree.
For this to come back, we need some kind of spark.
We need something new.
New trends, new winners, something.
Because it's been a little rough.
And even these teams kind of buying their own memes
hasn't already done anything.
I had the meme coin wars chart up.
It's been tough.
I was in the heaven, the light trade,
and I talked about it on this show.
I don't think it's over, but I understand.
Like the bears who said like it is over, I get it, right?
They came in, they challenged the king,
and now it looks like the king won.
And I round tripped the whole thing.
I'm still holding.
I'm going to give the,
I'm going to give the heaven team a little bit more time to,
to play this out,
but it's hard to argue with pumps dominance and they keep facing new
challengers.
Bonk gave them the most serious run and Bonk had their month in the sun.
And now it's back to pump.
Right.
So it looks like,
I think that the more challengers
they're able to beat the stronger they look right because like open c held off a few competitors
and then blur knocked them out effectively for for several years until blur basically gave up
um i've we still very well may have that blur moment for memes, but it's hard to see who that would be at this point in time.
Well, you were talking about gambling.
So let's switch gears and seg to the intersection of sports gambling
and prediction markets because I tweeted about this a bit this weekend.
Logie, I know you're also plugged into the sports scene pretty deeply.
I was just casually following these college football markets on Koushi because one of
our friends in our chat, very enslaved, who was a very good fancy golf player, just fancy
sports player in general, kind of put these volumes on my radar.
I misinterpreted this.
So when I first looked at these,
I thought these were individual game numbers.
This is the total of all of the college football category betting on
Koushi, but the number is 166 million.
And we are one week into college football.
This was opening weekend.
And there were a handful of good games.
Like I wouldn't even...
Like, TCU...
Okay, that's a big game.
We had...
Like, the Notre Dame-Miami game was a big game.
Ohio State-Texas.
That was a big one.
And then there was a handful of others.
But it wasn't like some insane weekend.
It was opening weekend,
four or five marquee matchups,
and they did $166 million.
That is significant. For some perspective, the Super Bowl does $1.3 billion, roughly.
That was in 2025. So 10% of the Super Bowl take in opening weekend. I don't know how this compares
to the traditional books,
FanDuel, DraftKings, all the others in the world.
It feels higher to me.
Like, what do you think?
Yeah, I actually, I don't know how it compares.
So I couldn't speak on that in particular, but this is not a number to scoff at.
You know, and one of the things we've talked about
as it relates to prediction markets
is just the liquidity necessary to be able to make bets, right? Is it deep enough to make bets in size and
also without, you know, drastically changing odds, those types of things. And it does very much seem
like that's the case here, right? As you can, you can make your bet as a, as a, you know, typical
normal $5, $10 participant, right? If you are a very casual sports better
or at the upper end, I don't know, there are no limits here, right? Not to my knowledge from
Kalshi about how much you can get down. Traditional sports books, of course, could potentially limit
sides, right? Or limit sharp action, of course, if you're a sharp bettor as well. So it's going to be a really interesting thing to follow.
That's for sure.
And I think we've known this a little bit, but like DraftKings, FanDuel,
others have to be sitting up a little bit thinking about this for sure.
Yeah, and the other piece I didn't mention, I think – so the volume is big.
The prices were better.
So I was monitoring the odds.
The Cauchy prediction market odds were about 5% to 10% better
than the sportsbook odds because they're not taking nearly as high
of a fee or a big.
They're taking a small percent.
I don't have the exact number.
But, like, for instance, the money line for one of the games I was watching was minus one 42.
And on couch,
it was effectively like minus one 30.
So you were getting 10% better odds and their bid depth was incredible.
It was like 750,000 to a million at,
at the number.
So you were able to bet on like the favorites and basically whatever size you wanted yeah and
that's the stuff that's really going to matter to sharp people when right like you or i betting 50
100 on a particular game it's you know you probably don't even care about the price really
right you you may when it starts to talk like 50 to 100 points but if you're talking like 5 10 points
you probably don't care about it too much.
You're not necessarily shopping odds for that type of stuff.
When you are getting significant sums down,
that 10 to 12 points matters a lot.
So yeah, I mean, people like pro gamblers,
people who are sharp,
people who want to find arbitrage opportunities,
which of course exists in prediction markets and on books as well. It's just harder to take advantage of.
Everybody's got to be sitting up. This is a pretty pivotal moment. There is probably,
and I'm being lazy here, but there's probably a lot of free money on the ground,
quite honestly. And I say that only because it's being shoved in our face so much right now
about the prevalence of prediction markets
and what's out there and available.
But if you find it, you might be picking up 5% or 10%.
It may be tedious, but it's probably out there,
and it's probably more or less free money.
So we've got the NFL.
This was college ball.
I mean, it's not a crazy stretch to think the NFL is going to do more volume.
NFL kicks off this weekend.
Thursday game, which is not even an interesting game to bet on because the Eagles are such heavy favorites.
But the depth is pretty strong, right?
So you can get 168K in at 22 cents on Dallas dallas it goes up to 350k 557 to 20 so uh there's some decent
liquidity on this again why i'm bringing this up a i missed this trend as this is what's going
this is what was going to carry prediction markets post-election but clearly it is and
i think then getting all this action on sports is going to enable the other markets,
the economic markets, the crypto markets, all of that, just to get bigger as well.
So it looks like this is how the prediction markets are going to level up. And when Calci
benefits from the Robinhood partnership, we're seeing more and more of these partnerships
seemingly by the week. Then another big name in sports had a huge announcement this morning.
Those who are closer to fantasy and sports gaming will know underdog.
They have now partnered with crypto.com.
They're going to start offering sports events contracts to their customers
via the underdog platform.
The other area where this is interesting, Logan.
So I think this, this this this crept up on me
like sports betting slash fantasy is outlawed in like 20 states in the u.s i didn't realize that
in illinois it's it's it's fine we can't we cannot bet on college football games in our state so i
can't bet on university of illinois i can't bet on the University of Illinois. I can't bet on Northwestern, but pretty much anything else is fair game. But in 20 states, it's blocked. So this is effectively a way around
that, right? That's another kind of factor in this conversation. Yeah. I mean, that's the other
really, really big thing here. That's why you're seeing someone like Underdog or DraftKings
FanDuel, whoever they may be, ultimately look to this as a vehicle because of the previous big thing here that's why you're seeing someone like underdog or uh draft kinks fandal you know
whoever they they may be ultimately look to this as a vehicle because of the the previous ruling
in which kalshi got that favorable ruling from a district judge um about the fact that man i'm
gonna totally mess up the legal uh legalese here but like basically that it's federally regulated
right these events contracts are federally regulated therefore they can offer them anywhere versus the gaming stuff which is
regulated at the state level uh hopefully i'm saying that correctly but basically yeah that
would enable calci to offer their sports markets which are essentially the same exact thing as
draft kings fanduel right offering you in every state versus just those 30 states or whatever.
So it's a massive, massive unlock to get additional 20 states where people couldn't do it, right?
That's a lot of the, even though the big, big states have it legal already, right?
Like New York, you can do, I mean, those are massive states.
Pennsylvania, it's basically the same thing you have, Tyler.
Just about everything we can gamble on with a few exceptions.
But these other ones, other states that you couldn't,
you now can through these events contracts,
through these prediction markets.
So massive, yeah.
It is.
So this is a new trend to watch.
I'm sure we'll be covering it in more depth
as the football season really
kicks off here in September, but this is a big trend,
too big to ignore for those following prediction markets.
I think we're going to see more and more folks get into this broader market.
That seems clear.
Another game that took off this weekend, Logan, I believe you played it,
Pudgy Party.
I saw it reached seventh, I think,
in the overall Apple iOS store rankings for free games.
Out of all free games, it was first in a few categories.
What were your thoughts?
Yeah, so full disclosure, I'm not a gamer.
I think you know that quite well.
Listeners may not.
So it's difficult for me to sit down and play a game,
but I did download this.
I played it.
And it's pretty simple and pretty fun.
Like, it's fine.
The couple mini games that I played were race-based, you know,
where you're literally taking your penguin.
I have the hot dog suit penguin, which I quite like, you know,
racing against, of course, other online competitors.
So it's kind of fun.
It's not super difficult.
Like, again, I don't know games i don't
know how to do them i stink at them it sounds very boomerich but that's just kind of how i am
and i was able to actually i took first in one of the races which is nice um so i played it and i
actually got to talk to uh to luca last week i talked to the ceo that's right yeah what'd you
take away from that yeah so i spoke with also John Linden, the CEO at Mythical Games, of course, made this game in collaboration with Pudgy Penguins.
I was impressed in my conversation with them.
You know, John seems to really understand what's going on here.
Of course, Mythical behind NFL Rivals, FIFA Rivals.
Those have generated tons and tons and probably been the most successful, even though they may not be the most Web3 dominated in terms of user demographic, they're probably the most successful Web3
teams, right?
In terms of like user numbers, thanks in part, of course, due to the nature of the collaborations
there, the licensing with the NFL, with FIFA, right?
This is different where you're talking about a Web3 native IP and still trying to do the very same thing, which is generate millions and millions of downloads.
I asked Luca what success looked like for this particular game.
He told me, I'm going to miss the quote exactly, but something along the lines of, at a minimum, tens of millions of downloads and players.
He was adamant about this is what it needs to have to be successful
and they're going to do everything in their power to do that uh and make it you know one of the top
if not the top app in the app store uh respectively for google and uh for apple um so i you know i
was impressed of course uh luca has always been very ambitious very confident in in his path
towards achieving those ambitious goals.
But it seems like they've found something here that people are going to be interested in.
You do need to onboard people outside Web3 in order to achieve those goals.
I started with my nephews who are eight and five or around those ages.
I handed them the phone.
Of course, like I said, I don't know how to do anything, but I gave them the phone.
They knew exactly what they were doing.
They loved it.
They kept winning.
I'm tempted just to give them my phone for a period of time
to rack up rewards for me.
But yeah, I mean, all accounts, anecdotal, of course.
We do have some evidence early, right, the apps for rankings.
But by all accounts, this is a, a potential hit quite literally. Um,
it's similar to if folks who haven't played it,
but have played other games, it's in that party game genre.
It's similar to kind of like fall guys.
I think there's another game called stumble guys, um,
that you could perhaps put in the same category or like category.
Unlike you,
I kind of grew up in the play to earn era of crypto games and i logged into
to click buttons to try to make money but the games weren't fun and i think that the reviews
are in this is a fun game people like it and i do think it has a real shot to get to millions
and millions of users from a trading perspective so the ethamTHMT has been selling off.
Punks are a 46, but that's down 20% from local highs of 55.
Bored Apes are under 10.
Pudgies are right at 10.
I kind of like this trade.
They're getting cheap.
I know there's been some lending issues and people on leverage
that caused a part of this dip.
But if you think Pudgy Party is going to blow up, I do think that trickles back to the NFTs at some point.
Yeah. You like this over Pengu? Because that's always the conversation, right?
There's multiple ways to gain exposure here.
That's a good question.
Yeah. You know what? It's kind of like the double play right
you know you're getting a little bit of the eth you're getting a little bit of the eth trade as
well of course it's a proxy for ethereum um i don't know it's just tough because it's difficult
to smack 43 000 on a pudgy penguin it's a little bit easier to buy $5,000 worth of Pengu.
Like if you're making the,
if you're making the trades.
So in terms of like a barrier to entry,
the activation is a little bit easier.
You know,
just buying Pengu,
but in terms of like the upside,
I think the NFT is upside is higher personally in terms of the,
the,
the like percentage gain.
Right.
What is this from all-time high i mean it's like four or five x me or no sorry not four or five x um i can't see
where i'm looking at are you are you talking about pingo yeah yeah yeah sorry pingu is about
50 off 50 off true all-time high okay Okay. Yeah, about 50%. Off localized, technically, yeah, because it was at 44 cents back in late July.
29 cents.
Hmm.
I don't know.
It's tricky.
It is tricky.
It's fun, though.
I mean, that's part of what makes it fun.
And they're like, they're reflexive, right?
So the token pumps, the NFTs pump too.
Well, you have the underlying, the other calculus with the NFTs is thes is the abstract stuff which you know we don't know too much about but
it's kind of it's a it's a hidden weight that like you know adds to the floor price as is
right like it's in there somewhere there's some premium given to those nftTs because of the abstract stuff. That gets shaken off if and when an abstract TGE comes.
But nevertheless, I think I like the NFTs more.
I kind of do too.
But looking at this objectively,
I think $8.8 billion is the magic number for Pingu here.
That's about a 3x from here.
What's more likely, the Pingu to 3x or the NFTs to 3x?
NFTs to 3x would be 30 ETH floor,
which is, if you think ETH is around 5k by then, that's $150,000.
They've hit $100,000 before.
I don't think $150,000 for a budget of NFT is out of the question by any means.
That seems really tough though.
I don't know.
When you,
when you say it like that,
the Pengu stuff does seem like it'd be an easier three X,
but I don't know.
What's the,
what's the order book really look like?
I mean,
for,
for penguins,
is it pretty thin?
I don't even really know.
Can I see the depth on open seed or it's going to blur?
I don't actually know.
Oh yeah. There's a depth tab right actually next to the off to the right where the chart is there's a depth
that's not very helpful so 80 birds to 11.75 yeah it doesn't tell us a lot
um we'll see it'll be an interesting interesting, perhaps a fun, a fun battle.
I think for pingos to get to 150 K,
you probably need punks at over 300.
Yeah.
That's my gut read on that.
I can't get this chart to load.
Well,
we've got a few minutes left in the show.
I'm going around the horn.
A couple other topics.
There's a new token trading on hyper liquid and it's linear.
I don't know if folks saw this this morning.
It's been a busy morning of news.
Linnea opened up over $0.04.
Is it hanging out at $0.03 right now?
I have not had a chance to see the FDVs
and the tokenomics on this,
so I don't know exactly what this means.
I don't believe there are tokenomics just yet.
Sorry, not tokenomics,
but I don't know what three and a half cents means
in terms of what the projected FDV is.
It's not a straight.
It is not 3.5 billion based on what I saw folks talking about on X.
So I think when it was at 4.4 cents,
I think folks were saying it was 3 billion there.
So perhaps a little lower.
This is going to be an interesting one.
I think I'm going to like the linear trade.
Mando's point on pre-markets opening high and then going low is going to be
valid for most tokens.
There's not going to be a whole lot of pressure on sell pressure on linear
just because of how they're structuring the airdrop.
So like a $3 billion FDV is a little
below pump.
Only 20% of tokens are going to be circulating,
maybe less.
I'll put it
less than a billion
circulating.
That's going to be an interesting one. Another reason why
that is interesting, folks,
is, again, one of my favorite markets on Myriad on the Linnea side is this something to happen by September 16th for
Linnea. It's still only at 63%. So we've got two full weeks for the Linnea token to drop, for any details to come out,
an airdrop date announced is enough to resolve this yes,
and you're getting 50%.
So the fact that it's trading pre-market on Hyperliquid,
I don't think it's going to trade for two more full weeks before something happens.
So I like the yes side.
But disclosure, I'm on the yes side.
Yeah, I really like that on the Myriad board on Linnea.
I like that Vitalik market, Vitalik to mention Linnea.
He is, of course, Vitalik, very, very well-spoken,
very measured with the words he uses, I believe.
He has a lot of power.
He knows that as well.
I liked this one long ago, closer to 50%,
because he has mentioned other Layer 2 networks in the past.
And Linnea is doing something that Vitalik very specifically called out
early, early this year when we're talking about the parasitic nature of L2s,
that was a big uh kind of um
sentiment battle about l2s being good but i mean it's still a battle it's still a talk but um
ethereum continuing on with the layer two roadmap and vitalik sort of suggested that these layer two
networks needed to really think about the economics of eath um and one of the things that linea was
very transparent about was the fact that they're going to be focused on
the economics of ETH and be the most aligned Ethereum layer two network. So he has yet to
mention it. I think these odds are probably fair about whether or not he would mention it, but I
still, I still like the potential upside here in, uh, I cannot use the market, so I've not made a
wager on this. Um um it's still one that's
interesting to me and i think you know this is just in 2025 right and we expect that there's
going to be more information coming from linear there's going to be reasons for vitalik to think
about linear and potentially comment on it uh in the near future yeah i like that nice uh nice
little bookcase so if you're looking for some interesting markets over on the Linnea side,
I think there's a couple to take a look at.
Producer Charlie has let me know.
I do need to clarify that that something to happen market is on September 16th.
So that does muddy the waters a little bit.
So it's not just up until it has to happen on that day.
So yeah, maybe 63% is still right for this.
But we'll continue to track these.
Folks, I think that takes us through the list.
Logie, anything else jumping out to you this morning?
Do you mind going to that sports one?
Is the U.S. Open one on there?
Well, I'm thinking about tennis here.
No, it's not.
Okay.
This must be on the abstract one.
You know, I was just looking at the draw again this morning.
Sinner last night was disgusting.
His draw is so easy, up to 56%.
That makes sense.
He's going to walk to the finals.
So, yeah.
Anyway.
You just need Sinner to stay healthy, and you're going to get him at even money.
This number is right.
I don't know what that is in terms of the american odds
uh we can do it pretty quickly but it's got to be around 150 i think minus 150 or something like
that that makes sense that's what he would be to alcaraz probably on these hard courts and then
anybody else he's gonna be even even bigger favorite so anyway just just thinking about it
we've got tennis expert logan on with us so it's more alpha
here this morning all right folks well i think that is going to be it for today's show thank
you for joining us for oak back tomorrow we'll have mando back in the house as well i want to
thank all of our listeners want to thank our partners want to thank logan for for jumping
in with us here today we will see you tomorrow at 10 a.m. Eastern.
Until then, go make it a beautiful day.
Goodbye. Thank you. so
