Pow, pow, pow, pow, pow, pow, pow, pow.
What up, what up, what up, what up, what up, what up, what up, what up, everybody?
What up, everybody? We got a big show today.
We're going to have two winners for the giveaway.
Fuck, this is a good one.
Then we have a bunch who come in on the show.
It's going to be a good one
I wanna see some retweets
I wanna see all the good stuff
Everything seems to be sorted
We're gonna go live on kick in a second.
Kick it, Charlie. Thank you. Yo, yo, yo, yo, yo, what up?
Woo. Woo. 2025, look at that.
Another beautiful day to have a beautiful day. I got my co-host in the house, Tyler.
Good morning. Good morning, good morning. How you doing, Thay?
And apparently that's good for our magic.
I'm good. It's Friday. No one in the U.S. is able to get a job, and apparently that's good for our Magic. Super bullish.
And you, my friend, have a big birthday this weekend, which typically bottoms markets.
So I'm also excited about that.
Something, something corn moon.
So I posted this morning.
Listen, we're already getting a tease of it.
My birthday seems to be a big bop.
I still remember last year.
Same thing. Same thing. I was like, it's my birthday. to be a big bop i still remember last year same thing same thing you know i was like my birthday bitcoin's 44k everybody was saying it's going back to 12 by
the way like literally um or like the teens and they ended up going to like 70k in a straight line
so uh you know not bad not bad not bad uh so what's the correct goal if we map out that price
levels? Oh, we're really going to do that?
I like that. Okay, let's even, before we
go into that, let's just go into that.
Before anything, before calling out the name of
our sponsors or anything, I like
that. See, I like when we start to show bullish
like that, you know what I mean?
So, if we go into, okay, so let me
refresh here my trading view.
Alright, so, if you go into, okay, so let me refresh here my training view. All right.
So if you go to last year, 2024, it was here. See, it's right there.
Look, I'm not kidding about the bottom, dude.
You guys think I'm memeing?
Look, 7th, literally September 7th is this day here, right there.
Okay, maybe you could argue this one here, August 5th.
But there was, no, actually that was a true bottom
because then we're up only.
was the 7th because I was in Europe.
It was midnight. We're lit and it happened.
So look at that. My birthday last year.
Then we ran a straight line,
In two months, basically?
So 108 top was December 17th.
So it's two months and 10 days.
I can't see it on the screen.
Ah, sorry. Ah, Jesus Christ., was this 50K? Yeah, it was, ah, sorry.
And where does it go like in that first three weeks?
Oh, no, sorry, it was not 49K.
It's this one, I'm sorry.
50K, and then in the three weeks, where does it hit in three weeks?
Oh, you want to do a three-week fractal?
So three weeks would make the end of the first of October.
Well, it went all the way up to $65K.
So that puts us at $140K, $145K Bitcoin.
We would love that for a three-week move.
But then, Tyler, we went back down until –
and this is when people were like, oh, look at that.
Because it was pre-election, right?
So we were like, uncertainty.
Because during that time, Kamala had flipped Trump on Polymarket, remember?
So our rentals are 140K into September, 200K plus in December.
Let's draw some lines. So, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, knee, Let's draw some lines. So, okay.
the other lines would be like,
We're going to post it on December 31st.
And if it doesn't play out, we'll simply delete this clip.
If it doesn't play out, this show never happened.
If it doesn't play out, the show simply did not happen. You know what I mean? If it doesn't play out,
the show simply did not happen. But you know what,
though? It looks like a nice chart. It kind of
looks like something that could happen. It doesn't look insane.
I don't think you and I sound insane
running again until the end of the year,
It doesn't sound stupid either.
Makes perfect sense. This, it doesn't sound stupid either. You know what I mean? Makes perfect sense.
Like, this play here does not sound crazy to me.
Of course, this one might be, you know, that was more fun.
But, like, to here, this doesn't sound crazy to me.
Basically, it's going that high.
And then, sure, like, you know, top that shit, bam, bam, bam, bam, go down, what, to 100K?
Like, what's the bottom of the next cycle? Like, 100? You know? So, like, you know, top that shit, bam, bam, bam, bam, go down what, to 100K? Like, what's the bottom of the next cycle?
It could be set up for a nice little September here.
A part of me just wants to shove in long here, but then a part of me wants to wait until the September 7th potential bottom.
Just wait, because it is Friday today, and Friday historically, I mean, Fridays have sucked.
So, you know, I would just wait a little bit.
Worst case, you just catch it higher.
I mean, corn moon is at what time?
You know, we got to do a research.
Corn moon is at 2.09 p.m. Eastern daytime.
So that would be around 7.09 p.m. for me. There you go. Sunday, 7.09 p.m. Eastern daytime. So that would be around 7.09 p.m. for me.
And it's on a Sunday, you know.
I like where this is going, Tyler.
We're setting up to have an electric week.
And speaking of which, today on the show, let's talk, I mean, we're talking markets.
Let's talk, I mean, we'll talk markets.
We'll talk news like yesterday.
We'll talk news like yesterday.
Recap some of the stuff that you guys have probably seen on the timeline.
And then we're joined by a friend of the show, Bunchu.
Bunchu Betts of Billy Betts, which just announced a raise too yesterday.
So we'll talk about that.
But most importantly, we want to talk about the intersection of sports and prediction markets.
Yesterday was the start of the football season. Right, Tyler i don't get this wrong and calci had some crazy numbers
play market too but those those cash numbers were insane um so i definitely want to talk about the
intersection of that and guess what well since there is some sports prediction markets on myriad
we'll take bunch with myriad and uh and make some predictions and maybe you guys can tell him or not
but you know he's pretty sharp so we'll do all of that and then of course two winners of the giveaway uh today one of them is uh already we
selected it was the winner from last friday tyler it was it friday that we rugged him um anyways yes
we mistakenly rugged him uh we take ownership of that and as you've been following the show for
the last two years we always make up uh for those mistakes because he was on the show,
but it was lagging, and then we just skipped him.
Maybe Charlie refreshed my memory in the chat.
And then, but hang tight.
You know, you're all subscribers now, times AI Rev, who gifted 300 subs.
So that's pretty much subs for everyone here.
We will have one subscriber picked as well to win it is far
cold friday so we'll play some coin race on yeet.com and then last but not least this show
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trade without trade-offs tyler let's go straight to you
yeah folks crypto majors are green but on a roller coaster right now.
So there was a jobs report that came out this morning, well under expectations.
75,000 jobs expected for non-farm payrolls came in at 22,000.
And there were also several revisions that revised prior month numbers down.
So it was a bad jobs report.
This has since sent the odds of September rate cuts soaring.
I'm seeing 12% chance now at two cuts of 50 bps.
That was not even on the board for a good chunk of the last several weeks.
Basically, a cut is guaranteed.
It's just a question of one cut or two cuts.
The market has liked that stocks are green and back at new all-time highs. Bitcoin hit 113k on
the back of this, but is also retracing right now. So a bit of volatility. Going through the day's
headlines here, Bitcoin ETS actually did see outflows yesterday, about 220 million. ETH also
saw outflows around $170 million.
So we'll see how today's numbers look.
The SEC has come out with a very pro-crypto agenda,
unveiling a set of rulemakings to come here in the near future
as they continue to ease pressure on crypto and set up a regulatory framework.
Stripe and Paradigm revealed their Tempo blockchain live in Testnet.
It is a stablecoin-focused blockchain, very focused on payments.
Major partners including Visa, OpenAI, Shopify, and more.
Kraken, we talked about this yesterday, but we'll hit them again.
Kraken announced a buyout of Breakout,
plan to integrate that trader-native platform into their Kraken Pro product.
World Liberty 5, this was a big one.
A lot of mixed reactions on the timeline. They blacklisted
all of his tokens. He had 600
Perhaps this was warranted. Justin has
pushed back and said he didn't do anything wrong.
Did you see what just happened 30 minutes ago?
We got – sorry to cut you there, but this is like news.
News like I just saw this.
Justin's son committed to buying $10 million worth of alts and $10 million worth of World Liberty Files half an hour ago.
If he gets unlocked for this, then it's like...
Well, it's not even just that.
It's like, how are you going to try and fuck the president
Johnson's son may be the most goaded
Trump's son has like three years left, dude.
There's a lot to unpack from this one.
Let's get through the report and then we'll come back to it.
Rounding this out, this was a funny headline,
depending on what side of the fence is.
Gary Gensler's text messages from October 2022 to September 23
have been lost according to a recent audit within the SEC.
So just an absurd headline.
If you remember, October 2022 is just a month before the FTX collapsed.
So I wonder if that's tied to that.
Crypto Treasury stocks were down yesterday after a big headline out of the NASDAQ.
They're going to increase their scrutiny on crypto purchases,
though those stocks have largely rebounded here this morning.
Public firms now hold over 1 million Bitcoin.
That's $130 billion worth, led by strategy, which holds $636,000.
And the net American Bitcoin stock did fall below its IPO price yesterday.
I have not seen it here yet this morning.
In token airdrop and protocol news, pump fun, man.
Another $12 million in buybacks representing 98% of last week's revenue. It hit $4.6 billion. FTV this morning, it is on
a clear up trend. Hyperliquid, breaking news before the show, they're adding their own stablecoin.
So that will be an interesting one to watch. Arbitrum is launching DRIP as a new $40 million
DeFi incentive program. Fireblocks also throwing their hat in. They're launching a stablecoin payments network.
And then Myriad, major announcements here, folks.
Two new UX enhancements, including direct sign-in with MetaMask,
Rabi, and Rainbow Wallets, easier bridging directly within Myriad.
And that confirmation that USDC predictions will be, I'm quoting here,
We've seen acknowledgement of TGE.
So big, big news out of Myriad.
Rounding this out, meme coin leaders were green on the day.
Meet, Biddy, Spark were top members.
That cards token we had the founder on yesterday
hit new all-time highs again this morning.
There's insatiable demand for that Pokemon cards token.
And then in NFTs, Pudgy Penguins came out and announced that OpenSea will be their official home, along with the home of the P cards token. And then in NFTs, Pudgy Penguins
came out and announced that OpenSea
will be their official home, along with
the home of the Pengu token.
So that was an interesting announcement as well.
Just the official home. What does that mean?
There's a lot of questions
about what it means and why they would even make this.
Does it mean Luca bought open
I've had people ask me that
and I don't know the answer to that
I mean these penguins are tradable across any NFT chain
they're still tradable on blur
no one knows what it means but it is provocative
and the thing about Luca is he doesn't really do things he doesn't do random things It is provocative. Banger. Banger.
And the thing about Lucas, he doesn't really do things.
He doesn't do random things.
He's a very purposeful person.
Oh, no, he does nothing randomly.
I just had a call with him last week, actually.
It's been a while, right?
We're on Abstract, so I catch up with him quite a bit and uh and uh fuck we're about to cook so hard um and so are they um so tyler let's take it back a couple notches i want to talk about
this world of briefly fighting but first first um i think the chances of Gensler having his texts mistakenly deleted are about the same chances of Epstein having killed himself.
So why don't we talk about that for a second? Text messages from Gary Gensler the month leading up to the collapse of his protege, his little baby, a.k.a. Sam Bankman-Fried.
So you're telling me that these texts have all disappeared?
So Gary's text messages from October 18, 2022 to September 6, 2023 are now lost.
Apparently they are blaming a 45-day wipe policy
and then some issues he was having with his SEC-issued phone,
which he then brought into their office for someone to take a look at.
And then the person looking at it ended up doing a reset of the phone
in a very rushed fashion, which led to a permanent deletion.
That's the official report of the SEC. So they've done an audit now
to look at this. It's one of those things we're never going to find out the true story here.
But the timeframe of this is very relevant. So again, November 2022 is when the FTX collapse happened. Then this period between late 2022 and early and mid to late 2023 was also the high point of Operation Chokepoint 2.0,
where the SEC and others were going after banks and effectively trying to debank everyone in crypto.
We'll never know how deep Gary Gensler was involved, at least from a text message standpoint.
I mean, he was overseeing the SEC,
don't hate this previous administration's
leadership enough, is what's coming
an interesting one. Well, that's a bum bummer i actually lost my ledger in the
on the boating accident so i won't be able to pay my taxes here you know it's a bummer i'm still
hoping that we're not gonna have none of us are gonna have to pay taxes we're gonna get tax-free
crypto we still have four months left uh doesn't feel out of the realm of possibilities, if I'm being honest.
Is there a market for that?
I mean, the Trump family is set to make so much money on crypto.
Why are they going to pay taxes on that?
Let's just make it tax-free.
Speaking of Trump's, the World Liberty Phi story,
arguably the biggest story of the day,
certainly had the timeline
First, World Liberty 5 was nuking
yesterday morning. It fell
new local lows. I think it hit like 16
Then they came out with the announcement that they blacklisted Justin Sun's wallets
after he had moved $9 million in World Liberty FI tokens.
He came out and said that,
hey, these were for test purposes.
I didn't really do any selling.
He tried to justify his actions.
On the flip side, I've seen the terms and conditions of the
World Liberty DeFi pre-sale and that they did have
rules explicitly against this type of thing.
On one side, I think you hate, from a decentralization standpoint, you hate seeing
blacklisting at all. It's just such a messy thing
in decentralized finance. but I guess the way
this token is specifically set
up is not decentralized. It is a centralized
token. I mean, it's in the terms and services, right?
make the argument that this was justified.
Oh, God. That that's funny I mean
dude he really is the goat
I don't know how real this scheme
you're blocked from Justin's son
yeah I'm blocked since yours
I talked shit at him back or some shit
and then he didn't like it
apparently he was running this like I. He was throwing a fake.
Apparently he was running this like, I mean this is like a literal Ponzi so he set up some
or his exchange. Yeah on his exchange.
I was going to enable him to effectively
his market participants that he could there it is so all trade while his are
locked up so justinson allegedly borrowed volby users wlfi tokens at 20 apr so that he can sell
and exit his vest 80 of the pre-sale bag asap at elevated valuation diabolical work, Alameda would be so bad. So, like, I haven't done the SLU thing to really dig into that,
but that is the speculation.
And then, yeah, I guess the more news this morning is he's offering
to buy another $10 million to get himself unblocked.
And if that happens, then we're just like, that's a bad outcome here, I think.
Just bribery, pure bribery. Man, Justin's son bad outcome here, I think. Just bribery.
The timeline never disappoints, huh?
There's always something going on.
Everyone's been kind of raising their red flags around the Trump family getting deeper and deeper.
This type of stuff is quite messy.
Yeah, I mean, we obviously don't like these headlines.
Can we just go smooth for a little while?
Meaning everything, the alts, everything?
Can we just get another period of euphoria?
This time, I'll take profits.
I mean, Bitcoin's falling off a cliff here.
I don't know what's going on.
They got us in that first 30-minute fakeout.
Classic fakeout, bro. We went to what, 113.4?
Yeah, 113.4, which is basically the line.
The line. Yeah, the new range. I got is basically the line. The line.
They've been pretty respected, actually, so far.
We thought we'd be breaking out this morning, but nope.
Another fake out. Solana is so strong, brother. Not today. Another fake out.
Solana is so strong, dude.
But Solana is just having so much trouble breaking 210.
Bitcoin's outperforming on the week still at these numbers.
It's up 200%. It's up 1%.
It also just goes to show what a sideways week this has been.
we're just setting up the final shakeout ahead of the September 7th
Everybody buckle up because the corn moon and corn moon,
how poetic is this term corn moon?
It's also a blood moon and it is going to be a washed in the blood of the bears last blood moon was insane but anyways i see a bunch of this too
so i'll go to you in a few minutes but first i thought the the temple blockchain news was huge
that was a big one indeed um so if you didn't see this, well, we've talked about this before,
but we knew Stripe and Paradigm were working on this new L1 blockchain.
So it is live in private testnet.
Again, it's called Tempo.
This is a blockchain meant for payments.
So it is a payment-focused blockchain focused on stablecoins.
They're targeting 100,000 TPS, EVM compatibility, and again, a focus on stablecoins. They have a
heavy hitting roster of early design partners, including Visa, Deutsche Bank, Shopify, OpenAI,
Revolut, and more. So they have a heavy-hitting team behind this
and heavy-hitting partners.
So there's some big names tied into this one.
And it's a reminder of why payments make more sense on-chain.
So for a typical $100 item,
if you pay with a credit card,
the credit card fee is around $3.20.
If purchased via stablecoins,
it's closer to 50 cents or less.
So half a percent or less.
So that's a massive spread.
And that is the opportunity
that these payment giants see on chain.
And I think everyone knew
that eventually they were coming on chain.
There's probably a question of would they use existing
blockchain infrastructure or go build
their own and now we have
the answer to that question a lot of these giants are
going to be building their own
more successful than others
I think if I was going to bet on a private team
to have some success the Stripe team is
probably one that I would bet on
again they've got some big players tied into this one but private team to have some success. The Stripe team is probably one that I would bet on.
Again, they've got some big players tied into this one.
But I think this is one that also just,
while it may not pump your L1 bags specifically,
it's going to lead to a boost in stablecoins.
It's going to lead to a boost in blockchain crypto adoption,
stablecoin adoption, which I do think grows the overall pie, which is a net positive.
So I'm going to root for him.
The blockchain designed for payments.
I don't remember the full history, but Stripe initially was going to do something with crypto
and then stopped. They stopped for like a decade.
They basically just changed
their opinion in the last
Yeah, they've been going hard at it.
And they're some of the best in the world.
they've got some big names huh
this will be a big blockchain
wow alright I don't really know that it necessarily like Wow Wow
I don't really know that it necessarily like
If it hurts the ETH bull case
It feels like more of a neutral
Maybe it's in the bull's case
What else? And that was really the big one
punks are grinding up and then myriad news yeah i mean let's go through that and then let's let's
go let's talk with uh with banshu so yesterday we pushed out some this is really like long term
long time coming right and i'll reshare them to the top of the of my page for the people that
didn't get to catch them but basically you're not going to be able to use Myriad without necessarily having an
So obviously, this doesn't change anything with regards to the HW, et cetera.
We're working on ways so that you can still get your Abstract XP because you know, like
you kind of have to use your Aziz on HW to have that.
But yeah, you can now, you know, predict on Myriad just directly with Metamask, Rabbi
Wallet, Rainbow, and a few others that are EVM.
No Phantom because Phantom doesn't support abstract uh yet uh but the second they do obviously
like you'll be able to use phantom and then also we have native bridging so which is awesome like
within the platform itself you'll be able to bridge uh from any cryptocurrency just like let's let's
any bridge that you've ever used like any currency you have across any blockchains you'll be able to
bridge uh natively within myriad without having to leave myriad which obviously is really important to us
tyler and then uh last line can't believe my boss let me talk about that but uh but all usdc
predictions across the myriad protocol will be considered at tg and why we had to put protocol
here because the myriad protocol is not just the abstract, what is linear and upcoming chains.
You know, perhaps there's some more,
a couple more in the works or not.
We'll see, but you guys should check it out in general.
Like the Myriad Protocol website's nice.
Like you have everything there.
You can really understand our ecosystem better.
But yeah, you should definitely start using Myriad
You're actually early. So anyway, anything, rightbase wallet like everything and then you can like the bridge
nearly without uh within myriad so yeah tyler i think it's important it's like kind of been like a
i would say it's kind of been a roadblock for us at the company you know within because you know
our goal is to keep people on the platform our goal is
for people to be able to predict no matter what they're using uh and now you're able to actually
it's my first time doing it this is nice um can you see my screen i don't think you can hey
what am i sharing hold on it's actually super clean look at that wow Hold on, why am I so... I'm slow, dude. Hold on, share screen.
No, it's not me, the problem.
It's... I can't share screen
Well, I want you to share my screen when Bunchu
But let's go to Bunchu, and then
while you talk to him, I'll refresh my
stream yard, go in and out, and then
I'll come back. Anyways, Banshu.
Banshu, Banshu, good morning.
Can you guys hear me all right?
Obviously, I don't have to, but let me send you an invite on the spaces.
Where you're on the show.
I'm actually going to repost a space to say that you have joined us.
Very excited to be here talking prediction markets and AI and all of this fun stuff.
Loving what Myriad's been up to.
I've been getting a chat with Lox and the team there.
It's just going to be super cool.
So I'm excited to chat with you guys today thanks for having me you've been talking to locks huh
do we have things coming up together i i think we might yeah oh fire we can we can talk about
some of that stuff too hell yeah what we're cooking at billy and just prediction markets
in general i think you know um when we you guys had me on back in March, gosh, right. I think it was like March madness was
literally about to start the day prior and just the evolution of what we've seen in the prediction
market space from then to now is just like, so crazy. It's night and day. Like for us at Billy, it's always been
our thesis around like these exchanges and prediction markets and things like that. And
when we started in January, like the options weren't there, right? It was like Polymarket
and the options on Polymarket for sports were like money lines on, you know, NBA and some major
sports. And now the landscape has totally changed and it's really exciting to see.
Well, look, Tyler probably has some cues for you.
Let me refresh my stream yard, guys, just because it looks like I'm bugging a little
bit, but I'll be back in two seconds.
If you're on Spaces, give me a second.
And if you're on Spaces spaces you're not on fucking kick yet
then you know so uh billybetts.ai is um a kind of ai powered prediction market research and um
automation tool that is essentially focused specifically on the sports prediction market
niche right so uh as I kind of mentioned
before, when we started building this, the landscape was like really nascent. And so
we started building for like on-chain exchanges, on-chain sports books. And we had the initial
idea of like, okay, we've built this agent that can actually go out and predict sports and trade sports on these markets.
And we did it that way at first because the markets were so nascent.
You couldn't build yet a product to kind of like take a group of people along or build
this data aggregation tool or really this kind of really powerful research tool with
And so kind of how we've evolved from then to now is like, you know,
it was all used to be about like Billy betting his own wallet and how he would
perform. And now with all these new markets,
we can really build this kind of like AI powered prediction,
automation research platform that really focuses,
I would say on like two, two main things. Bet discovery, right?
So, or like prediction discovery.
So like, what are all these markets out there
that are just outside of even just like individual games
and matchups and like research
that goes along with that discovery
as well as like automation, right?
So one of the cool things
that we're going to be launching here is we've got kind of one-click betting
into all of these different platforms.
And coming up this football season,
we're actually going to be launching the beta later today
is like the ability to do automated betting strategies, right?
Because these exchanges and prediction markets
allow you to do this like permissionless, um, you know,
integrations, right. With, with their APIs and on chain and things like that. So, uh, soon you're
going to be able to kind of come to our platform, say, Hey, I want to bet, uh, I want to set up a
strategy for NFL with a Billy confidence score of over three 50. I want to only bet games within this price band.
And if my position's in profit,
I want to sell it if it's in profit over,
So you're going to be able to do some really cool
automated stuff with the platform coming up here too.
I want to get more into that.
maybe just stepping back a second.
Of course, you were barely preparing for this,
but were you surprised at this explosion in sports betting on prediction markets?
Because I'll be honest, I saw it start to happen in March,
and I thought it was all bullshit.
I thought it was just farmers trying to grind volume,
and I thought that prediction markets had no shot to displace like the
the sports betting powerhouses in the world.
with what's been happening.
I get what Koushi had a hundred,
it's already done 150 million plus in college football volume in a week.
I think what did it do last night?
28 million on Kous end of the game.
I agree with Tyler, by the way.
When we were first starting Myriad,
we didn't want to offer sports because also we didn't want to
operate in that gray area within the United States
So you have that as well, which is super illegal.
And you're like, yo, all the big Nevada gaming
started suing Cal Shea and shit.
And everyone was telling me, you're never going to be able to compete with, well, here in Europe is like Bet365 and Betway and Betano.
And then in America, obviously like MGM, right?
And like, and if they want, they'll take you down, blah, blah.
It turns out like they're now looking out to acquire prediction markets.
So it's like the flipped script.
The script is completely flipped here.
And the underdog is really sweet.
The underdog and crypto.com as well.
It's like, it's everybody is chasing this game.
I think, you know, for us, my thesis was always that it was going to take market share because I've kind of lived it.
So, you know, I've been a sports better for as long as I can remember. And unfortunately, my early days, I was losing
sports better. But at some point, you kind of understand how to win. And what happens when you
understand how to win is that you find yourself playing at your DraftKings, your FanDuel, your Caesars, your MGM,
and they don't want winning bettors, right?
So what happens to you as a user,
if you are a winning bettor,
you get limited and banned essentially at these places.
Like banned in a sense of like,
I couldn't, at Bet365, if you have a pulse,
you are limited to like a dollar a bet, right?
So this was happening to me
in New Jersey. And so it forced me to have to use these exchanges and kind of these different types
of markets to actually like, get my volume down, right? And so I've kind of seen it happen to
myself, right? And so the thesis was always that kind of like these exchanges are
better user experiences as well in terms of like pricing, right. For a user, right. Like your
DraftKings and your FanDuel, they make money on high hold markets, right. Like, uh, you know,
it's crazy. I saw Polymarket put out and Kalshi put out like their first parlays last night on
the football game. And Polymarket has a parlay out there. That's like bills, chiefs, Eagles,
money line. And it's like, okay, they've, they've grouped them all.
And you can kind of bet yes and no on both sides of it.
You can't do that on a draft Kings, right? Like there's only the yes side.
And, uh, and those markets are like usually typically higher hold.
They hold almost 20% plus on these
parlays. And so the idea that like, oh, well, if you could get a bet down with higher volume
in a market that is almost no hold, right? Or like one cent spread, you're basically betting
at fair odds. It's a much better kind of experience for a user in terms of
98% of bettors lose long-term. But if your long-term ROI is minus 6% and that goes down to
minus 1%, you have extended the length of your bankroll by a long time. So you're going to have
more fun betting. You're going to lose less over time if you are losing better.
And you also have the opportunity
to just get more down if you're winning better.
And that's just like on the games market.
And then I think what we're seeing
on like prediction markets specifically
that is unique is all of these other
kind of more unique event type of markets
or futures type of markets that just present a different
experience for a sports fan or just like a sports trader, right? Like a prediction market,
futures market is such a better experience to trade than it is on a sports book. One, again,
you can get close to, you get fair odds at any time on your position.
So like, let's, let's use one that I like to trade.
I'm trading the college football championship market right now.
And so like you buy a bunch of teams and you buy them like you're buying shares in a stock,
On a sports book, you can't, you just buy 10 to one for Penn state to win the national
And if Penn state starts to do well
this season, you gain some sort of equity in that. But the cash out option is always negative EV,
and you have to exit your entire position. But on a prediction market, you can buy shares. And over
the course of the season, I could decide to extend my position, lower my position, trade it, trade
out, hedge, whatever, without having to lose
my whole position. And I know I'm getting fair odds. It's a better experience. And then I think
all these really unique markets, like will red zone have commercials, right? Or what Myriad's
got up for Malik Neighbors versus, I forget whorison for the for the first four weeks of the season
like these types of markets i think are primed to build real like kind of sports fan interests
that's not like these quant desks and traders that are you know betting sports games because
like this is like sports talk radio stuff, right? It's the stuff that like
fans talk about and think about and always have opinions on. And now you can kind of trade on
that. And then, you know, we can get into a conversation of where I think like AI really
helps that process with those types of markets. But yeah, I think like, that's the real big
picture of like, why prediction markets versus sports books. And, you know, it's a really interesting conversation because like the games markets obviously are driving the most volume
right now. But I think over time, you'll start to see as like you get this discovery of new markets,
like most people just don't even know they're there yet. Right. And you'll see more activity
and action in those markets as it continues to mature as well.
I mean, you outlined a ton of reasons why this is exciting.
And another one is this is the first chance you had to play house, right?
So you can take the no side.
You can take the no side of the parlay.
Like, for example, I didn't see the specific market,
but I'm seeing other futures markets where you can take the opposite side,
which is something you can't do.
Yeah, you can take the no side of that polymarket parlay. And actually, if you look at what the
exact fair odds should be, you do a little bit of math, there's probably three cents of value
I was looking at this morning on betting the no side versus the yes side. So there's a lot of
really interesting opportunities. And obviously, the no side is much more higher probability to hit than the yes side.
So it like just presents new and different opportunities.
The idea of exchanges is not new, right?
Like Betfair has been around forever for sports exchanges.
Um, you've had Novig do really well in the U S you've had sport trade, things like that.
Um, but I think like from like from just an overall type of different
kinds of contracts and the way you can trade these markets, it's new for most people, right?
Like, and that's what's exciting. So let's talk AI. So where does AI fit in? What is the opportunity
that you're going after here? Yeah, I think there's, there's really two things that we're trying to do with, um, I actually maybe three with the AI component, right? So, um, the first
thing I mentioned was like bet discovery. And, and so all of these markets are kind of, um,
structured differently. They are named oddly. There's no like, um yes-no market on Polymarket versus Kalshi versus
how a myriad might present the market. And so to aggregate all of those markets into one place,
so you can compare either prices or opportunities or things like that,
it's actually a perfect job for AI, right?
Because you can throw a bunch of this unstructured data into a reasoning model, and it'll actually
help you sort and make sense of all these markets that are out there, right? So that's one.
But then there's also what we're doing with the Billy conviction score algorithm, right? So this is kind of like more of guiding people
towards maybe a specific bet or market
that might be interesting,
whether that's the side of a game
You may think like Netflix recommendation, right?
Like because you've bet on X, Y, and Z,
in this market. And so like, we're building that Billy conviction score, which is really
kind of an interesting exercise, right? This is, I think, a very uniquely blockchain thing that we do
with AI, which is like, all of these markets are open and permissionless. Calci is not on-chain, but there's a lot of on-chain exchanges
and sportsbooks like Polymarket, SXBet, OvertimeMarkets.xyz.
And that means that all that data is kind of like open to use
and scrape and kind of build algorithms and models off of.
So we're using a ton of on-chain data,
collecting a bunch of like millions of past
bets, profiling wallets, all of this kind of stuff, using liquidity, using real-time odds moves.
And then we've built kind of like this deep research engine on top of that to really build
that Billy conviction score. And that attempts to like put you on the right side of the game
or help you kind of discover where there might be an opportunity.
And then I think the third thing is the automation piece.
So like this is something that just has never been able to exist before in a sports arena, right?
Like you can't auto bet into a DraftKings or a FanDuel.
You can't route to best price from a combination of three different markets
uh like you know the closest thing to that now would be an odds jam right where they present you
all the different markets that are like an odd screen you click it and the best they can get you
to is like a filled out bet slip on draft kings but they can't execute for you. It'll never route to best price.
So you can think of like this third piece as the automated strategies, as well as like,
eventually the vision think is like Uniswap for sports betting, right? Where it's like,
okay, I know I want to bet Illinois and Duke this weekend. I can see the price like as a better,
I don't care where, I just want to know that i'm getting the
best price for the side that i want right and i'm just clicking that and we're using the ai to kind
of route you to those different places um because like when you swap when you swap a token you don't
care where it goes you just care that you get the best price um so those are kind of all the unique
things that we're doing with the ai and then then I think we can get into an interesting story and discussion just about where I think AI can actually help solve the liquidity piece of this and the pricing piece of these unique markets that are kind of like low liquidity now that I think will really get enhanced in the future. So the bull cases you just walked us through, or like where AI gets in,
data analytics, discoverability,
arbitrage, and automation.
I mean, it's a pretty clear bull case.
And now this market is already hundreds of millions.
So it's probably going to get into the billions here shortly.
I see why Coinbase Ventures wanted to buy it.
And again, so congrats on that raise, by the way. I see why Coinbase Ventures wanted to buy it.
And again, so congrats on that raise, by the way.
Let's go to your next level.
So how does AI solve liquidity?
Yeah, this is interesting.
So if you want, I brought my screen up.
I could just kind of show you that.
So this is what we're going to be launching
today, tomorrow, over the course of the weekend.
So you can see here you've got Illinois Duke. So this is what we're going to be launching today, tomorrow, over the course of the weekend.
So you can see here you've got Illinois Duke.
You can see the Galsy pricing.
Yeah, just zoom your screen.
And by the way, for the people on Twitter spaces,
Kik.com forward slash DGens live with a Z.
And I've also pinned it to the top of the Twitter spaces uh we got bunch who on uh stream with us and honestly just much much better experience so
here take us take us to this ai here yeah so so here you're looking at like the the illinois duke
game you could see the cal street prices you can see polymarket you could see a nice space here for
myriad in the next week or two that'll come here and you'll be able to see prices across all three of these markets.
And what's interesting, right, is if you're looking at Myriad right now, you notice like Calci and Polymarket have the exact same prices for this game.
Myriad's priced a little differently, which would give you an opportunity to potentially arbitrage or get a positive expected value bet, right?
So Myriad's priced at $61.39.
So that's interesting, right? So just right there, you can now see prices across all three.
Again, you can see some data analytics here on market volume. You can see the BCS score here
over time. So we've got a 350 confidence score here. And then the other cool thing is we have these data feeds now from Calci too,
of like, you can see all trades over $5,000 we have this ad.
So you can see like price charts, volume over time.
You can see price movement over time.
So you can see like a lot of different ways to get you, you know, educated on a specific bet.
But then I think one of the coolest things that we're doing here is like this automation piece.
So starting later today, you'll be able to come in here and you'll be able to, you know, create a strategy.
You know, we're starting with NFL, college football, tennis, baseball.
You'll be able to say, all right, I want to bet NFL games with only super
high conviction scores. I want to bet them no more than four hours before the game. I want to set a
price range of 40 cents to 70 cents. So I don't want to take insane favorites or crazy wild
underdogs. I want to set a $5 bet size. I don't want to spend more than $20
a day. If I'm in profit by 50%, sell my position. And then you can kind of like rank your strategies
here. So you could see kind of like where this automation piece can go. And this is just like
the very MVP of it. What, what you, where this evolves is like, I only want to bet home underdogs or anytime a team that's favored
pregame goes down a touchdown, I want to bet on that side, right? And again, you can see kind of
how the AI fits into all of that on the backend to kind of analyze all those things in real time
and execute for you across all these different platforms, et cetera. So that's kind of where
we're going with this. But to your other point of where AI solves liquidity, I had this crazy
experience the other day. I can stop sharing here, but I had this crazy experience the other day.
There's a market out on CalSheep that was really fun. Again, these sports radio type of conversations.
Who's going to start week one for the Indianapolis Colts?
And it had Anthony Richardson priced at 77 cents
and Daniel Jones priced at 30 cents.
And I created this prompt with Billy to go research the market
and kind of price it out for me.
And I was like, cause I listened to a lot
of fantasy football content, a lot of football content and everything was like, Anthony
Richardson's going to start Anthony Richardson's going to start. So the price reflected that out
in the market. I went and did this research with Billy and he comes back and he goes,
I think Anthony Richardson's overpriced. I think the fair price is more like 62 cents.
And I was like, I was like, dude, you're, you like $0.62. I was like, dude, you're whack.
all right, go again. Go look for all these beat
writers. Go look for this, this, this, and this.
He comes back and he goes, well,
actually, now I think it's closer to $0.50.
I was like, dude, this is fucking broken.
I go one more round and I'm like, all right,
this thing says Anthony Richardson's overpriced.
I was like, I know better.
And so I bet Anthony Richardson.
The next day, Daniel Jones gets announced the starter
And so the AI was right, I was wrong.
But this was kind of like this light bulb moment for me where it's where, you know, these unique type of markets.
We're not talking like who's going to win Illinois Duke.
We're talking like, you know, who's going to be the week one starting quarterback or will red zone have commercials or, you know, all these different types of markets that are non-repeatable and that are all kind of like
data aggregation problems, right? Like conversational data, content out on the internet,
all of this stuff where like everybody has an opinion on these things. But the reason there's
no liquidity on them is because people don't know how to price that opinion. And what the AI was able to do for
me in that scenario was say, hey, out of all this stuff out there, I actually think the probability
of this, or in this case equals the price, is 55 cents. So you could see how that could go into
a market-making strategy and where AI could actually help price these long tail markets
and scale out the liquidity there right because like that's part of the other part problem these
game markets are so deep liquid deeply liquid because sports in theory is solved like at a
game level right you have quant desks trading these things. You've got institutional market makers on Calci that are setting these spreads. And, you know, most people don't realize
that like, it's kind of a sharp game with these like game lines out there, but these long tail
markets, they're not spending their time there. It's not worth their time. They're not repeatable.
They're unique. So how do you solve that? Well, I think, you know, AI is very uniquely positioned to take
all of that conversational data, all of that, you know, internet stuff, like the things we listen
to the opinions that we have, and, and actually put a price on it when and liquidity is really
all a function of confidence. And that's part of the problem is like, nobody knows how to price those markets accurately. Right.
Wow. I mean, this is, this is very compelling.
I think we need to have you back on and just continue this conversation.
I think this is super interesting. This model,
I think what jumps out to me is it's good for a beginner to set a strategy
with some very obvious data input factors that aren't hard to figure out.
But then it also fits a sharp who has their own trading rules.
Like, hey, I want to bet favorites who go down by a touchdown in the first quarter.
There are very basic trading rules that you'll be able to set and act on.
There was a quick tactical question in the chat.
Are you able to see your bets?
there's a tab there that every bet that you go in,
you can see what it's placed for you.
And you can actually either again,
these kinds of like auto take profits,
or you can sell it manually at any time,
right through the platform as well.
And then you can see like,
so that one's going to launch with CalSheet,
but there'll be a quick Polymarket follow.
There'll be a quick Marriott follow.
we're actually launching a Telegram bot as well.
That'll be more of like a manual bet placement,
but you'll be able to bet through there as well.
But yeah, I mean, I'm super excited about what we're building. And then, you know,
all the stuff that Myriad's building is super, like, what I think is very interesting.
The user experience is different. What you guys are building is going to be,
I think, super important to expanding prediction markets outside
of like, what I think is so interesting about what we can build here is that we're using the
prediction markets as an infrastructure layer, right? Like we're building a different experience
on top of the prediction market. Your normal sports bettor is not familiar with an order book,
right? Like they shouldn't have
to be no and that's gonna that's a hurdle right and like what myriad's doing just from a ui
standpoint but also your protocol level that you guys are building and things like that it's it's
just gonna it's just gonna be very different um and i think a better way to do it than some of the
like calci polymarket type of things that are out there right now.
I do have a myriad market that I think is worth.
we're going to pull it up.
By the way, I appreciate you.
we approach this from like a collaboration coordination standpoints like
I think this is what they're doing is great,
but I do think our approach maybe a little more user friendly here.
So these are the sports markets we have
um which one's the one that was the alpha bunch you what are we giving people all right so first
of all like again if you were paying attention to what i was saying before right about when i was
showing the billy platform where you can see the price differences uh if you were paying attention
to myriad this week you could have gotten the Ravens at $0.45.
They are now flipped to $0.53.
So just by paying attention to this market this week, you could have been sitting with plus money on both sides, free money, or you've now got a very nice bet on the Ravens. But one that I think is another thing that AI does better than I think a lot of people
is read the rules, right?
That Ohio State-Michigan one, who wins more games before week six?
Who wins more games before week six?
Who wins more games before week six?
If you read the rules here, a tie goes to the team who scored the most points in weeks one through five.
It ends before the games on the 27th.
uh the 27th yeah ohio state has a bye but michigan has um michigan has a very tough game against
oklahoma so if you think michigan loses this week the most they can have is four is three wins the
most ohio state can have is three wins and ohio state plays a bunch of cupcakes. They will likely outscore by a million points. They play Ohio and grambling.
So I think Ohio State is underpriced here.
If Michigan upsets Oklahoma, it all goes to shit.
But I think the betting markets say Oklahoma's the side.
So I bought some Ohio State.
Okay, so there's two of them.
Any other ones that you see on here that you like?
I just like all these head-to-head ones.
They're very cool, right?
Like the Malik neighbors, Marvin Harrison is super interesting.
This is like the really cool stuff that is,
I keep kind of referring to it as like the sports talk radio.
But if you're a DFS person or a fantasy football person and you're spending time doing, you know,
projections and things like, or looking at projections anyway, these markets are really
interesting to trade and you can put a price on them pretty easily. So, and I think there'll be
fun to like fluctuate over the course of, you know, a four week span
What I think is really cool is the, the different settlement times that are in some of these
Um, like, you know, four weeks is really fun.
You could, you could end up with plus money positions on both sides between two weeks
if you are paying attention.
Uh, and you know, it's very cool. So yeah, I love what you guys are doing here. Appreciate that. attention. It's very cool.
I love what you guys are doing here.
Thanks, Bunchu, for coming again, dude.
Yesterday I was saying we should get Bunchu on.
Shout out to Bunchu for always being down to come up.
We do have some sick markets, huh?
So the winner from last week that we rugged and that we have to fix for is Bino Glory.
So Bino Glory, congratulations.
You already made 500 bucks, and you're going to probably make some more money right now.
And now, Charlie, are you meant to come on the show and pick from the sub?
I told you guys I have a picker for subs.
So it turns out if you are gifted a sub, you can't get in.
You have to buy your own sub to enter this one.
And you know what, Tyler?
You know, AI Rev, he's crushing the pump trade.
He's Oprah of our chat, giving everybody subs.
But, you know, some people buy the win, all right?
Oh, that's a long-time listener. I think tukis is a long time listener hold on
tukis nft congratulations hopefully you're here i'm pretty sure the username tukis nft
rings a bell for me tukis nft yeah he's got the kaito pfp yeahP. Yeah, he's got us in his bio. He's got
going on, the Rack banner.
one of, yeah, yeah, yeah. It's
one of the epic guys. There you go.
Bino Glory. So Tyler, here's where,
oh, Bino Glory is here too.
Look at that. Bino Glory's here. So Bino Glory, oh, it going. Oh, Bino Glory is here too. Look at that.
Bino Glory is here. So Bino Glory, both of them are doing Corn Race.
Corn Race. Corn Race. So I'm going to switch over.
I'm going to switch over quickly to Chrome so that we can get the sound of Coin Race. And I'll be right back in two seconds. Does it work?
Did StreamYard's on Chrome? Tyler is just the worst. Okay, let me try.
So we're going to do some Farcoin.
It hasn't been this quick, but you love to see it.
pick anything between Bitcoin,
knowing that they go in order of what's the most riskier for you to lose or
And then is the other person here,
So we'll just pick for him,
So he's going for Bitcoin.
and then Tukas if you're here
but in the meantime let's play for Bino
you see me? yeah we do you guys can hear right?
Do I have time to play it if not I'm gonna play it I'm gonna play it's too it's too rushy
If not, I'm not gonna play it. I'm not gonna play it. It's too rushy.
Alright, well let's look at this race.
We're praying for FarCoins downfall right now.
Well, not our bags, though they're falling down, but the corn race.
Kick.com forward slash dgens live.
Make sure if you want a chance to win every week, every day of the week, we give money away.
Is Dojo about to win this race?
We wouldn't have had that.
And Tukas, get ready. Start picking what you want next because the next race comes quick.. All right. And Tukas, get ready.
Start picking what you want next because the next race comes quick.
What do you want, Tukas, is next?
I don't know what you want, Tukas.
Oh, God, Mando pisses me off, man.
Tukas, you say one, Solano?
So, sorry, Bino. I mean, Bino no made five in a box to kiss congrats you already made five hundred dollars
No matter what happens now. He's got a 6x on so on the 50x of far corn Tyler. Let's go. Let's go
Oh, yeah, oh, yeah, those is cooked those just got cooked. Come on. Come on, please
Doge's cooked. Doge's got cooked. Come on. Come on, please
That was so fucking good, dude. That was a fun run.
We will get it one of these days.
And Bino Gulley gets $500.
To everybody else, we will see you all next week on Monday.
Higher or lower on Monday?
Higher coming out of the torn moon.
If it's not higher, then I don't know.
If we're not pumping on Monday, I'll be worried about this corn moon.
We've got the blood moon.
See, I told you earlier on the show.
I said, Fridays, be careful.
Don't longer longs on Friday.
You know, immediately had a big-ass sell-off.
Oh, yeah, the Built for Big Moments.
We should probably come up with a solution for the built for big moments
Team's been a little busy with the prediction market side of things,
but we'll get back to you all ASAP.
Your free money is coming.
Your free money is coming.
Your free money is coming.
your free money is going to give you $19,000.
That's coming. But we've been, we've been really busy $19,000. Fuck. That's coming.
But we've been really busy.
Anyways, see you all Monday morning, 10 a.m.
Eastern Standard Time for the episode of FOMO Hour on Rock Radio.