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FOMO HOUR: FOMC, Bitcoin’s Next Leg Up and Binance Escapes
Recorded: Sept. 17, 2025 Duration: 0:59:40Space Recording
Short Summary
Today's FOMO Hour dives into pivotal trends shaping the crypto landscape, including the FOMC's impact on market dynamics, the explosive growth of stablecoins, and significant project launches like Ford Industries' Solana initiative. With 67% of fund managers still on the sidelines, the stage is set for a potential surge in crypto adoption.
Full Transcription
Thank you. GM, GM, everyone.
Thank you for joining us here this morning.
We're going to start the show in just a minute.
A couple of shout outs. Belfort, Bongo, the homies, GM, GM, everyone. Thank you for joining us here this morning. We're going to start the show in just a minute. Couple shout outs.
Belfort, Bongo, the homies, GM, GM.
We got Burnt, Harry Krishna, the rec guys.
GM, big week for rec, folks.
Big, big week for rec.
Mark your calendars for this Friday.
Biggest drink sale yet to date.
You want to be in this one.
Who else we got?
Amp Vex, DMACC, the grifter, GM, Ari. Hey, this one who else we got amp vex dmack the grifter gm ari hey yo
who else we got pixel blind dc all right gmgm producer charlie whenever you're ready let's kick it Thank you. uh
gm everyone and welcome to another episode of fomo hour today is is Wednesday, September 17th, 2025. Folks, it's finally here. It is FOMC day
today, and we are finally going to find out. Will too late, pal, continue to be late? Or
will he catch up and do the needful? And what does all that mean for our Magic Internet money?
We're going to break it all down on today's show.
I'm your host, Tyler D.
No, Faro, no Man.
No, they're at a gaming conference today, but we brought in Logan for support.
Logan, Gia, how you doing?
Hey, good morning, Tyler.
I'm doing well.
Beautiful day here in rural Pennsylvania.
The leaves are starting to change.
It's a pretty nice time of year, so I'm feeling pretty good.
Can't complain.
Our listeners may not know this.
Logan and I had the chance to meet up Saturday afternoon in downtown Chicago for the first
time ever in our multi-year partnership working together.
It was great to finally meet.
Logan, how was your Chicago experience this past weekend?
How was your Chicago experience this past weekend?
It was great, man.
We were so jam-packed, our schedule, from basically touchdown to takeoff.
We were on the go.
Lots of great food, lots of great drinks, great people as well.
Cubs won while we were there.
Beautiful weather.
Can't complain.
My fiance just passed her boards for physician assistant,
and I have her looking at maybe some Chicago jobs as well.
So it made that it made that strong of an impression.
I've been there before a handful of times.
She has not been, but it's made the at least the list for maybe a peruse of the job boards.
Good to hear. We avoided the National Guard.
We avoided ICE as well.
So that was a successful part of the weekend.
Well, folks, what are we talking about on today's show?
We've got a lot to talk about.
It is FOMC Day.
We're going to talk about that.
Some news out in the video.
Eli Lilly and broader macro.
In crypto, $4 billion Solana debt incoming.
We've got to talk about that.
Bank of America, their latest comments, their latest poll results.
Fund managers, nobody owns crypto.
What does that mean for us?
Binance is coming back.
They're escaping their compliance box that the prior DOJ put them in.
OpenSea, their final phase of rewards, folks.
It looks like it's going to have multiple seasons.
So we'll break that down. Linea
trading at TVL. Is there a trade
there? Tether co-founder launches the stable
token. Runs all the way to $1.7 billion.
LimeWire's buying the Firefress
Band. Jack Butcher's got a big
NFT drop today. We'll talk about that.
And Punk Strategy has some
new competition. We guessed
Pudgy Strategy would be next. It looks
like that has indeed debuted.
So we'll talk about that and a lot more on today's show. Charlie, maybe give us some
intro music and we'll dig in.
All right, folks, give me one second.
I'm getting the screen share all set up for those who are in the stream.
Give me one second.
We'll dig right in to crypto majors.
Here we are.
Bitcoin.
Oh, we're up.
Looks like we're pumping here a little bit after the morning head fake.
Bitcoin up 1%, 116, 230.
ETH up 1%, 4500.
Salon up 1% at 235.
In macro stocks, a couple big headlines.
So we got a big one out of NVIDIA.
It looks like China is going to ban all of its companies from buying NVIDIA chips. Interestingly, NVIDIA stock down, I think,
1% to 2%, not a huge hit. So perhaps this was somewhat expected or there's going to be work
arounds expected. I thought maybe there would be a bigger hit on that headline. So it looks like
it's not that bad. Stocks are broadly flat. I mean,
the Dow's up half percent. S&P and Azdaq effectively flat on the day. So it looks like
we're probably going to be largely flat until we get this big FOMC decision here at 1 p.m.?
At 2 p.m. 2 p.m. Eastern, I believe, is the conference.
I'll double-check that time for you here during the show, folks.
CME odds has one cut, 94% chance, two cuts, or a 50-bps cut, rather, at 6%.
Polymarket, a little bit higher.
So I don't know if this is just the Moonboys wanting to get that bet in.
They've got 50-bps at 8% over on Polymarket. Interestingly enough, if you've been tracking
this market closely, 50 bips was down to 3% last night. It looked like it was over. It looked like
it was a done deal. Yeah, it went below 3%, 2.9%. And then anyone who bought that dip has a hell of a trade.
They're up 150%.
Does that say down 9% on the week?
Yeah, so at peak, this was at a 20% chance a week ago.
And I'm not exactly sure what changed to make folks drop it this substantially.
I think there's been some inflation data come in,
some new jobs data, but those jobs revisions,
the massive jobs revisions is still what was so top of mind for me.
And disclosure, I am on 50 bps,
and I added to the position last night at 3%.
So I'll be rooting for the 50 bips cut here today.
I do think there is a chance Powell will do this,
largely on the back of these massive jobs revisions.
So the jobs data they've been using to inform all their decisions
for this year has just been totally incorrect
and off by orders of magnitude.
So that's my primary rationale.
I think the pushback is that,
will that be seen as him giving in to trump
so i think that's the primary case for 25 bips and it's just easier ruffle less feathers curious
for your taking on this yeah i mean i have nothing outside in terms of data or anything
like that but anecdotally just following this myself and powell actions. 25 just feels like the play.
Like, as you said, not ruffling any other feathers.
They've been too late, right?
That's what Trump calls them, too late, Powell,
or, you know, insert a bunch of other adjectives
that the Geese thrown in there as well.
They've just been cautious.
They've been perhaps actually late.
Again, characterize it however you wish,
but I feel like they're going to play this small, play this safe,
safe, if you want to call it that, and then reevaluate.
That's just the way it feels to me based on the last few months of the back
and forth here about whether a rate cut would come or not,
and then how big it might be.
It's a tricky one. How are you positioned?
I have, I have no wagers on this particular market or anything like that. Um, yeah, I know,
I know. Right. I can't, so I can't use Myriad and I just haven't been using Polymarket or
anything at this point in time. Um, so I have no wagers on it. I wish looking back,
you know, when this got down that mark, that 50 bits was like, was it in like the one that,
I mean, you said 3% overnight, but like, was there a point in time where it was in like the 1%
range? I feel like it got, it was like really, really good. It got down to two.
Yeah. That's realistically when I should have. And I mean, you had started to take a position
there, at least talk about taking a position there and some other smart friends of ours doing the same.
I probably should have jumped the gun there and just never did and have been sitting on the
sideline. Of course, I'm positioned, you know, plenty of my net worth is invested in this market
alongside you folks as well. So the cut is going to affect me one way or the other.
Didn't feel the need, I guess, to go out of my way to double down on a particular cut size.
What gets the most interesting bet, I think, coming out of the FOMC decision is total rate
cuts in 2025.
And three cuts, which is the broad consensus, is only at 49% on Polymarket right now.
If you look at the CME board, December odds, they've got it at 69%.
So a pretty huge margin difference there between CME's three cut odds and Poly's three cut odds.
CME is three cut odds and poly is three cut odds.
if it's 25 bips,
I think you're meant to slam.
Yeah.
This 75.
If it's a 50,
then I'm probably slamming the hundred.
Like you have to look at it at least at nine.
Right.
Cause then,
then you just,
you're just talking 25,
and it's hard to imagine a scenario where they come out with 50 and then they don't fall up the next months.
That's how I'm thinking about it.
35% for two cuts?
What is the seam?
I guess that's 25% unseeming for that, so it's somewhat in line.
This is another market I'll be paying attention to here this afternoon.
There's also mentions markets.
Easy.
Shout out to Easy.
He's been grinding the words markets, everything that Powell is going to say.
So there's going to be some entertainment in today's FOMC meeting.
Go check those out if you're interested on betting the individual words that Jerome Powell will say.
Let me see if I can find it.
What Powell say during the press conference today?
All right.
Inflation 40 times, inflation 50 times.
Less interested in ones like this.
Let's see where this – let's go down the list.
Probability at 38%.
Saying the word Trump at 18%.
That feels like a no.
I feel like he'll just say the president.
He won't call out Trump by name.
Recession at 50%.
Where this gets interesting is you never know what kind of questions he's going to get, right?
So Powell comes out, he delivers his remarks, and then he takes, what, 30 minutes of questions?
Maybe a bit more than that.
So pending where some of these questions go,
leading questions could get into some of these.
I don't know.
Nothing's necessarily jumping out to me that much at these odds.
If the job stuff is so important, you know, such an impact,
AI, artificial intelligence sort of feels,
I don't know. I've not stalked these. I don't really particularly watch these or, you know,
scrutinize them in any way. So of course,
folks like easy who may be paying much closer attention running actual models
on dimensions markets, you know,
those should be your source of truth or experts I should say.
Some of those are a little interesting to me.
Yeah.
Gotta love the mentions models that folks are running out.
They are fun.
They are fun.
It's a more easy way to, you can bet on this, Ty, I want to say as well.
So what does all this mean for our internet coin?
So Bitcoin 116.2.
Interestingly, I saw this headline over on Decrypt.
It looks like the ancient whales, they don't want to see us run.
They're doing their best to
keep prices artificially down.
I saw this headline. Two dormant Bitcoin whales have moved
upwards of 2,000 Bitcoin in the past three days.
This one whale, this wallet, received
1,000 Bitcoin back in 2013. It looks like
they're moving it around. That's $116 million
in Bitcoin, effectively.
You've got whale action like this,
likely some volatility ahead of this afternoon.
But I guess maybe zooming out,
like Logan, we talked maybe a little bit about this.
What's your perspective for broader Q4
beyond FOMC here today?
Yeah, I feel pretty good.
Nothing like outlandish.
Like I'm not calling for 250K Bitcoin
or anything like that,
but I've been, I don't know,
pleasantly surprised with the strength.
Would we get down to like 107 maybe a little bit lower than that um here in the local bottom from the last
couple of weeks i feel pretty good because it does feel like uh you know we haven't necessarily had a
period of mania headline wise um but at the same time there's been a steady stream of like these negative headlines that have infused themselves in the BTC whale thing. You have the ETH rotation thing, right? That was whale driven as well. Those individuals who were selling off their entire Bitcoin stacks from 2013 for ETH. Uh, and we've, we've held, um, I'm not looking at technical indicators. I don't know exactly what the range bottom is or anything like that. I don't particularly care.
I feel quite steady.
And the people who are in charge here, say what you will about Trump, Eric Trump, etc.,
they're calling for higher and higher.
And it doesn't feel like a time in which you really want to fade the people who are in the know.
There's so many potential large catalysts out there.
If there's a strategic reserve type thing, more details and announcements on that.
Continued demand from the DATs, continued inflows from the ETFs. You have the 401k thing,
that's already a headline that's probably been lost that could open up trillions of dollars.
It just feels like, I don't know.
I don't want to say sleeping giant
because it is what it is, right?
Like Bitcoin, of course, has had a tremendous year,
but I'm feeling cautiously optimistic
and feel totally okay right now.
I feel like people are sleeping
on this strategic Bitcoin reserve.
And I said on yesterday's show, so sailors in DC talking with Loomis about the Bitcoin Act and how
they can get this off the ground. As I understand it, China has been stockpiling gold at an
accelerating pace and they're driving, they're the primary driver behind this gold price action.
Gold's just going parabolic, getting new all time highs,
right?
That's an interesting backdrop for a potential driver for how the U S could
position a Bitcoin strategic reserve,
right?
Like China's going after gold.
The U S is going to stay more crypto native and go after digital gold.
So I think that's a potential narrative.
I haven't seen a whole lot of folks mentioned.
One of the key questions is how do you justify using taxpayer money to go out and market buy
Bitcoin? And that's a tough question to get past. And I'll acknowledge that as well.
We've talked about all the Delta neutral ways they can do it, mining. And I think we will 100%
do that as a country. But I think market buying is still absolutely on the table.
as a country, but I think market buying is still absolutely on the table.
So that would not shock me if that does transpire in the next six to 12 months.
And if so, that's going to be a shock.
But even putting that aside for now, I still think once these rate cuts start,
like, yeah, markets may have priced in the initial decision,
but the actual money flow, the capital flow,
all the capital that's sitting in money market accounts at these high interest rates,
I don't think that actual movement is priced in by any means.
So I do think the primary trade is up.
We've got the U.S. government effectively trying to outgrow an inflating debt.
And that, to me, the primary trade is holding assets.
You want to hold the best assets, you want to hold AI assets,
and hard assets, and I think Bitcoin is absolutely in the mix.
I'm wearing the propaganda hat here today.
Another headline that boosts my core thesis here
is that there is more buying power to come.
Walter Bloomberg here tweeting the results of this Bank of America survey.
67% of fund managers don't hold any crypto.
Only 8% have even started some kind of structural crypto investment.
84% have not.
These feel like staggering numbers to me still.
At this point, this late of 2025, and we joke on CT about, oh, sidelines?
But quite literally, a massive majority of fund managers who control capital,
huge piles of capital in the United States, probably across the world,
are not allocated to this
industry. So I think the question is, do you think they will be allocated? Do you think these numbers
will change in 2026, 2027, 2028? Are we actually early or are they just never going to come?
Do you have a read on that? Yeah. I think they will be allocated in some way. I think it's
inevitable. For all the reasons that I just shared about
Bitcoin's potential long-term benefits, I mean, people are going to come on board as it gets
easier and easier to do so, right? And it has gotten easier. That's not to suggest that it
has not, but it's only going to get easier for these funds, for people, retirement accounts.
Some of that is going to flow. I mean, bigger question is of course at which percentage apparently these folks
are not like uh following dalio didn't he say like i don't know some like absurd like 15 or
15 baby oh yeah yeah something like that um you know which that's around like my percentage but
uh in terms of these funds we'll see you know if and when they get there. Of course, I think they'll probably start a little bit smaller than that.
But any percentage allocation is good for us that think we're early, right?
I do think we're early in that regard.
So I think it will come.
You know, anecdotally, Tyler, not to speak of fund managers in particular, but this tracks for me.
I don't know anybody outside of our little bubble that owns crypto.
None of my,
I'm 32 years old.
None of my friends who,
you know,
at this point in time are starting families or selling down,
presumably have higher discretionary incomes than they would have had
before.
None of them are buying Bitcoin.
None of them own it.
None of them care about it at all.
So this totally tracks with me.
I know those are two different things,
the funds versus retail, but it doesn't shock me. But I do think they will eventually own it in some
way, shape or form. It tracks with me as well. I think a lot of investment managers, not only
are they not allocated, they just flat out don't like it or maybe go as far as hate it in general.
And Mando made a point about this, but effectively it's so difficult for them.
And I'm putting words in their mouths.
I am projecting, I'm fully aware of that, but I like to project.
I've got my opinions that they effectively hate it because they missed the trade and
their investment professionals who showed up to their desk every day for the past decade
and have somehow missed this new global monetary system
that has 1,000 in value,
and they have to live with themselves for that.
I sort of get that.
And they want to go to zero
because then it justifies them missing the trade
because it was all spam the whole time.
That makes sense to me.
Moving on, it's not just Bitcoin.
Solana, soul season.
I thought maybe soul season would be slowing down, folks.
It does not what Kyle Simani says.
Hold my beer, says Kyle.
We're putting our foot on the gas.
$4 billion at the market equity offering program they just announced.
This is Ford Industries, Ford Stock, F-O-R-D.
Not to be confused with the car company.
They announced after they just bought $6.8 million, $1.6 billion worth.
Basically, over this past weekend, they did it very rapidly.
Yeah.
And that caught me off guard a bit.
I should have been thinking a few steps ahead.
I was caught off guard by how quickly they went through all their funds.
I should have known.
They had line of sight to more capital incoming.
And in fact, they do.
$4 billion.
Logie, reactions to this massive headline this morning.
Yeah.
One, I mean, they jumped all the other Solana treasuries very, very quickly.
But they telegraphed it, as you mentioned, that this was going to be, they wanted to be the largest,
they're going to be the pathway to institutional money into Solana, and they're going to put their foot on the gas.
They made that clear.
So if the actual acquisitions didn't make it clear enough, not necessarily surprised in any way.
One of the things that definitely
tracks with me here again is, I don't know if you guys talked
about on the show, Bitwise
CIO Matt Haugen,
or I'm not exactly sure if I'm saying the last
name right, a couple of weeks ago, maybe
a week ago this time, shared that Swana has this
end-of-year run potential given the
demand from these stats,
the potential ETF applications
and approvals coming as well.
And this just follows right along, right?
You've had DFV, you've had UPEXI, you've had some others in there buying slowly.
But now you have like a real, real giant, you know, adding serious weight.
Just to give some scale here, Ford Industries bought 6.8 million Solana for 1.6 billion.
The other two that are right behind it, it basically doubled their combined holdings.
Upexi and DFDV have about $400 million worth of Solana each, I think around 2 million Sol each.
So it basically doubled those numbers,
almost doubled those numbers in one buy.
And of course now almost tripled what its type was.
So a lot of buy pressure coming.
Definitely sets up, I think, that potential end of year.
I keep going back to the market cap ratio math
between Sol and ETH.
We just saw what the ETH ads did.
Ran it from 2,500 to 4,900 in what? A handful of weeks.
If you add up the top, what? Top 10 ETH that's, we're talking 15, 16,
about 17 billion in buy pressure, which is a ton, right?
And we saw what it did. So where are the soul that's at cumulatively? So Ford Industries alone is now at five and a ton, right? And we saw what it did. So where are the soldats at cumulatively?
So Ford Industries alone is now at five and a half,
assuming they get through the four.
We know there's – Helios just did half a billion.
That's six.
We know there's a few other multibillion ones.
So we're talking 10, round up a little bit, plus the existing.
ETH is 4X bigger than sold.
And that's the exact point that the Bitwise CAO made.
Not to harp on that, but it makes sense.
It's a supply-demand thing, right?
When you have that much demand coming,
you take a look at the market caps relative to Bitcoin and Ethereum.
It makes sense that that type of buy pressure would lead
to a potential run up. The part for me that is like more difficult, of course, is understanding
how much is priced in or not, right? It felt like, I don't know, anecdotally speaking, it felt like
the last few weeks, you've seen the shine come off ETH, and you've seen people get more reinvigorated
about Solana.
A lot of that probably has to do with the pump trade.
A lot of that has to do probably with just meme coin being on the timeline a little bit more in my algorithm being geared towards that,
but it doesn't feel like overly.
So like I felt like in the beginning of the year around the meat,
the Trump meme coin,
all that stuff,
the actual salon all the time high that felt like overwhelmingly people were like,
okay, this is, you know,
Seoul is the horse to bet on.
I don't feel that right now,
despite maybe an outperformance in the last week or two.
Oh yeah, it's not the public consensus trade.
It will be at 300 or 320.
The other aspect of this,
but to give the full picture,
it wasn't just the ETH that's pumping ETH.
The ETH ETFs also had that massive inflow streak.
And I'm showing you see the green bars here on the chat.
So it had the DATs plus the ETFs.
Solana is not going to have that.
So we do have to clarify.
Not to this degree, right?
We know that the ETFs are coming,
the staking ETFs are coming,
and they're going to get some inflows.
Look at the... This is the
current salon ETF inflows at Coin Glass.
Yeah, so it's just the
one, right? The SSK.
It's getting $10 million. It's the
biggest day
of the month, effectively.
So there's going to be more. Ass more assume that it goes up but it's probably
not going to go up to 100 million maybe it goes to 20 to 30 maybe i'm wrong but i guess just
putting that aspect of it in perspective so it's not going to have that the combined
but still quite a bullish setup i think salon is going to all-time high this year and its apps are
operating on is are firing on all cylinders right i? I mean, love it or hate it.
I'm trying to find my... Where's my DeFi Llama tab? There it is. Let's look at 24-hour fees here.
What do we got? Pump. Well, let's do revenue rather. Pump, 2.93 million,
Pump.
Well, let's do revenue rather.
Pump, 2.93 million.
Over 10% ahead of hyperliquid on the day in fees.
And then over on the week, they are neck and neck.
We might be a couple days away from pump flipping hyperliquid on the week,
which is going to be fairly eye-opening, I think, for some folks.
It's only 20% off all-time high.
For some reason, I was thinking it was a little higher than that.
or like a little bit of a wider disparity.
You're talking about the pump token?
Yeah.
sorry.
I'm talking about Solana.
Oh yeah.
It's within range.
19.9%.
So I'm looking at CoinGecko 293.31 from January 19th,
which I think was like the exact day of the Trump launch.
And that's like hard to count, right?
You know, that doesn't even register.
The coin market cap chart has the peak at like 262.
And it definitely did go.
It went to 290.
That's a super wide gap.
I'm surprised they're that far.
Super briefly, right?
And I tweeted this out from a market cap perspective.
It's basically at all time high right now with inflation that's taken place since january um you know it's interesting sorry one
last anecdote on this tyler i'm just thinking back i i interviewed uh leo wald who's the ceo
of uh soul strategies another they're a solana infrastructure firm publicly traded just got
listed on the nasdaq but they've been publicly traded for a while on the Canadian Stock Exchange.
I was talking to her about they're kind of like the first Solana treasury.
Actually, they started buying Solana last year, you know, like far before these other DATs.
They're much smaller in nature that they have about 450,000 Solana.
But anyway, I was asking her about how her feelings have changed about Solana since all this madness, the DAT stuff, the Trump meme stuff.
They were dying well before this.
She said she's only more bullish.
Of course, incentivized to perhaps say so, not necessarily a response you would expect not to get or something like that.
But that was just interesting to hear.
It wasn't kind of like, oh, in line with expectations,
even more bullish.
Just a small anecdote that stood out to me
after I talked with her last week.
I'm seeing a double cup and handle on the all-time slot chart.
I'm distracted from Logan's Solstrat commentary,
just zooming in on this double cup and handle this whole is paying.
So, yeah, I do think this is going to resolve higher
and a pretty easy narrative to understand why that is.
Kyle Simani going on the tour.
I think he went on Third Guy's show.
I'll have to try to get him on this show.
I want to hear from him directly.
I went there on Pump.
We've been talking about Pump a lot this week.
I don't know if we have to really dig in more.
Creator fees have gone down a bit in the past 24 hours.
I don't think that's going to shock anyone.
A lot of those creator coins have largely gotten wrecked.
Bag work down at 7 million, down from 40.
Kind at 15, down from 40.
Streamer think is hanging out around five.
A lot of launches.
Micah did a coin last night.
Johnny Sins was streaming last night.
They're clearly a lot of folks still lining up to do the streaming and
launching the streamer coins,
but it seems like we're quickly speed running that the smaller rollercoaster
loops.
It feels like it feels sort of the Frentech key thing where,
and I don't mean to equate the actual mechanisms too much,
but once you saw how easy it was to pick up a little bit of free money,
like if you were notable in any way, shape, or form,
you created the key, a million people bought it,
you made a ton in fees and then
you know whatever uh it you could let it die it died people moved on whatever i'm getting the
same sort of vibe right now even though i feel like the mechanism is different perhaps there's
something greater to come from this um that's just unfortunately a little bit of what I'm feeling seeing this. I said the same thing.
And I called out someone earlier that there's a –
holders and streamers are not aligned.
As a streamer, you just want pure volume.
That's how you make your money.
You don't care if the token goes up.
In fact, like Wizard of Soho pointed this out,
he wanted to artificially keep his token down
because he maximized fees in that sub 300 K range.
Yeah.
And it is such in so many ways,
it is a mirror of the friend tech situation,
right?
Like as your friend tech keys got too expensive,
it was too hard for new people to enter key owners,
people running their rooms made money on the churn.
It really is the same.
It's the same pig in new makeup, it seems.
With that said, I think there's a difference between Alan and Racer.
Alan has a huge war chest, and I don't think he's going to disappear in two weeks.
So he can make this right.
I am curious what they're thinking behind the scenes.
I'm sure they're overwhelmed.
Massive queue of folks who want to get in the door.
They got to help them out.
But they got to change some of these incentives.
I think for this to last more than a few more weeks.
And I think it's probably going to come in phases.
I'm sure we'll be talking about it a whole lot more as things progress.
Let's talk OpenSea here briefly.
We announced on this show yesterday, maybe two days ago,
that the final sprint to OpenSea TGE was on.
Final phase of rewards.
Egg all over my face.
Pump the brakes, folks.
We got new info from Adam Hollander yesterday.
While there will be...
Wait, what is he saying here?
There will be more than one season of this final pre-TGE phase of rewards.
So this is the final phase.
I want to use the correct words here.
This is the final phase of OpenSea rewards.
But there will be multiple seasons within this phase.
So it looks like we're at least two months away from actually getting the token,
which on its surface is not a huge surprise, right?
I don't think anyone was actually expecting that seed token on October 15th,
but it feels like just another example of open C kind of getting in their own
way, saying something.
And then the truth kind of comes out and it's a little bit different.
Well, your reaction to this, did they mislead us?
Did we just, did we just misinterpret this?
Is this our fault?
I think, I think this is our fault.
Oh, come on. I don't want to take any blame.
I know. Here's what I'll say. I think if you go back to the initial
announcement, I was trying to pull up because I wrote an article
actually got some quotes, I believe, from Adam for the piece
back when this original announcement came alongside the flagship NFT collection, etc.
That was, I guess, two weeks ago, maybe at this point.
I'm trying to just find that to make sure I'm saying the right things as well.
But if I remember correctly, they mentioned that the tokenomic stuff would come in early October.
Full tokenomic details are expected to be shared by the OpenSea Foundation in early October. Just taking a look at that, you know, this was written,
yeah, I wrote the piece on September 8th. You know, you're not even going to get the tokenomic
details until early October. How soon were you really expecting the token? This just feels like
crypto Twitter, NFT Twitter, whatever, getting a little too excited and maybe, you know,
not, I don't know,
not expecting anything else.
I don't know what else to say.
This doesn't shock me in any way.
I'm not like perturbed by this.
Could they have been a little more explicit
in the comms?
Yeah, probably.
Or definitely, right?
To avoid this confusion and let down but i'm i don't
think this is a big i don't think this is a big deal it's not a big deal it'll it's gonna get
past it i just i need to correct because i've been kind of on the record saying we are in the final
sprint 30 days to go farm it's not 30 days so it's probably 90 days my gut now is tokens december 15th or around christmas time it is my current gut read
on this yeah and there's no and this is maybe another one of these the little calm things right
it said full tokenomic details expected in early october that very well could just be this is the
allocation right or you know some sort of uh indication of what the pie chart will look like. It doesn't have to be when will the token come either. You know, they didn't say the token launch date will come in early October or, you course, that's a little frustrating to end users, perhaps.
But it was either strategic to protect themselves for testing whatever,
or it was just a minor slip that nobody expected would come to this or whatever.
Yeah, we'll see. The comments weren't that bad.
In NFT adjacent news, we've got some new NFT dads making big moves.
So Punk Strategy bought their, I guess, technically eighth Punk.
Eighth Punk that they've acquired, they sold one.
So they have seven Punks now.
The token's back at 15 million.
Wow.
Chart actually looks okay.
It looks like maybe it ran too hard.
Retrace 50%, starting to maybe form a bottom.
So that's my quick TA, my expert TA on the Punk Strategy token.
They've already back to 12 ETH.
I thought it would be a long shot for them to get another Punk today.
The 25% of the way there could come tonight.
If not tonight, it'll certainly come tomorrow.
They hold seven punks.
Punks are 220K floor.
So it's worth $1.5 million.
Just an asset's held.
So this has been interesting.
And we knew copycats were coming, folks.
We knew copycats were coming, folks.
It looks like we got our first one.
Pudgy Strategy.
Pudgy strategy launched overnight on Abstract.
It looks like it kind of slowly grinded up to about a $1 million market cap by 7 a.m. Eastern.
Then folks kind of found it this morning as they woke up.
The token soared to three three now pulled back about a
full 50 hanging out at 1.7 million market cap right now um i believe it's bought two pudgy penguins
already i don't know if you've had a chance to look into this one yet uh just on its surface
now i haven't haven't been following me me see if I can get the latest.
While I look for this, I think a couple caveats.
I think a random person effectively launched this.
Well, I don't know who the person was who launched this.
Well, I'm saying random.
It was not someone affiliated with Pudgies.
It was not someone affiliated with Renotic,
the team behind the Punk strategy.
So this is separate and distinct.
It seems to be a similar playbook.
I have not looked into the code of the smart contracts behind this one just yet.
So I said DYOR before just blindly aping into this one.
I think that it might have two pudgies already. So if so, it's off to some fast work.
I'm not 1.2x or not.
So we'll dig in, but not surprised to see the first copycat
come out on the market.
I think expect more of these.
Yeah, for sure to come
um what else going around the horn loki there's a few headlines i think trump is suing the new
york times should we should we get into a good one yeah this is a good one um so i i read the
article uh from sander over at the crypt um yeah it's, I believe, a large, like maybe $1.5 or like $15 billion lawsuit or something like that.
I might be messing up the $15 billion.
I thought it was $15 million.
Wow, it's $15 billion.
It's a massive lawsuit.
I believe it extends, of course, beyond the meme coin.
But alleged that, right, I think it's up to four different reporters or articles and or one book just irreparably harmed his good name and whatever else is indicated there.
The funniest part about this to me, Tyler, is if you actually go through, the articles that are referenced in the lawsuit were written in late 2024.
in the lawsuit were written in late 2024.
So this is three to four months
prior to the launch of the Trump meme coin.
Yeah, that doesn't check out.
That part to me was the most laughable part here.
I don't have too much else to share.
I didn't actually get into the actual lawsuit itself.
I don't know how, it's coming from the president. I didn't actually get into the actual lawsuit or itself. I don't know
how, you know, it's a coming from the president. I don't know how likely it is that suits like this
just get tossed away, but it feels like any reasonable judge that saw that, you know,
these were written four months prior to the launch of like a meme coin like that would at least
strike that portion. If you can, I don't exactly know how the legal system works in
that way, but yeah, kind of funny. MemeCoin project and other business interests. So it
looks like they're also talking about some stories that hurt the stock of Trump media.
Yeah. I don't believe any of the other crypto components. So I don't think World Liberty
Fi or anything like that was was mentioned sure so maybe broader
probably just uh you know tie him up a little bit but not a huge surprise we'll see where
where that one goes and then an interesting headline out of limewire limewire's back huh
give us the rundown yeah limewire's been back, actually. I mean, the NFT, sorry, I should say Web3 brand now, right?
Of course, the file sharing, is that what you would have called it?
I didn't actually use LimeWire.
This was a little bit probably before I would have been really listening to music on my own.
Not a rule breaker, that Logie, not a rule breaker.
And I'm not a rule breaker, no, or at least try not to be.
But nevertheless, they have been in Web3 for a bit.
I believe their project now, which is more or less decentralized file sharing and stuff,
has claimed to have 2.4 million monthly users.
So not too shabby.
But all that being said, they spent $230,000 to acquire fire
festival of course from the famous you know I think Hulu documentary and music festival with
Billy McFarlane and Ja Rule that like blew up and was terrible like one of the worst reported music
festivals of all time if not the worst one I guess it didn't even did it even take place
like people went but was there actually any music i don't even know if there was yeah but uh all
that being said right they they acquired the brand they're gonna try to do something but they don't
have anything outlined yet right this is kind of just like maybe there's a fit between lime wire
and fire festival given the music stuff uh they're gonna try to plan over the next six months. They're going to try to make it lighthearted and fun,
not some super serious music festival.
At least that was my read based on the article over at Decrypt.
Yeah, fun little story.
Fyre Festival.
I mean, it's an interesting brand.
It's provocative, right?
It evokes emotion when you hear it it so maybe there is the the type of
community takeovers that we really like to rally behind indeed um so continuing to go through the
list there's another i don't know if folks saw this it caught me it caught me off guard i totally
missed on the timeline yesterday it looks like a tether co-founder. And let me pull up his name. I don't have the
name handy. Yeah, Reeve Collins. Yeah, Reeve Collins, chairman and co-founder of Tether,
has launched Stable, STBL. It is effectively a stablecoin-focused protocol looking at ways to
generate yield.
And you go through their website, you see stablecoins 2.0,
how it differs from stablecoins 1.0.
So we had Plasma and the XPEL token tied to Tether.
Now there's another Tether-adjacent token,
stablecoin protocol out there on the market.
I mean,
immediate appetite for this thing.
It ran straight to 1.7 billion in his first day of trading.
It is very low float.
So the market cap's only 82 million.
So 5% of the token is out or so.
So know that no kind of where you're at.
There's a lot of tokens still coming on this.
Clearly there is an appetite for anything with the stablecoin tag on it
in it right now, anything Tether adjacent.
Combine stablecoins and Tether, and people are going to open up
their checkbooks, their digital checkbooks,
and send some capital at this.
I wonder, though, when does this become crowded?
Isn't it already crowded?
I mean, it sort of feels crowded.
Although, right, there's been headlines that every company you could ever imagine will have its own stablecoin, right? And some sort of stablecoin play.
You've got Stripe and Paradigm working on Tempo, right?
And all these other stablecoin adjacent things.
It does, it feels crowded, but I don't know.
I don't know.
Like it, at the same time, it doesn't necessarily feel
like there's too much investable, if that makes sense.
Of course, you could have done well if you were in on this STBL really early.
But what else are you going to invest in?
It just feels like a sector that is going to continue to grow, but I don't know the best way to benefit from it, given all the fragmentation that is likely to come.
I don't know the best way to benefit from it,
given all the fragmentation that is likely to come.
It's funny you say that.
I was actually looking at stable coins
and the overall stable coin market cap yesterday.
I don't know if folks saw this.
$290 billion.
$3 billion in stable coins have been minted on chain in the past four days,
including $2 billion in the last 24 hours.
So money is coming on chain.
It's coming rapidly.
But yeah, when you zoom in on this chart,
since 2025 began, the 2025 stablecoin market cap back in January was right around $200 billion.
$208 here on January 4th, it's $290 right now. So $80 billion has come on chain, effectively a 40% jump in nine months,
nine and a half months.
So this is just up and to the right.
Yeah.
And still expecting like what?
Like Besson said 2 trillion or something like that?
I mean, that's a 10X from here?
Or a little less than 10X, but.
It probably accelerates, right?
I wouldn't expect this trend to necessarily slow down.
I mean, so where are we at since 2024?
Wow.
So we're up over 100% in stablecoin market cap
since the beginning of 2024.
So people want to bet on this trend.
People want to invest in the trend of stable coins going up into the right
because they are going to continue going up into the right.
There's going to be a lot of new players.
We might end up in a very fragmented stable coin landscape
where every bank has their own stable coin
or every payments company has their own stable coin.
We're clearly seeing that a bit right now uh with tempo with paypal world liberty five has their own stable
coin right it's definitely crowded but the assets are going to keep going up and to the right
and i think there is still a question like does does this equate with crypto majors growth or can it happen in a vacuum?
Is there a world where total stable coins are at 500 billion next year and our
crypto majors are the same price?
Probably.
I struggle to see it personally,
but I think there is certainly a scenario where,
where it happens and that they're not,
they're not necessarily causal.
And there's ways that each can outperform.
But I think in general,
my view is that as more capital comes on chain,
it will lift the majors a bit,
not one-to-one by any means.
And clearly stable coins are up 40% this year.
What's the overall crypto up 40% this year.
What's the overall crypto market cap up this year?
They don't have year-to-date.
Of course, they don't.
Let's see.
January 1st, we're at $3.4 trillion.
We're at four.
So we're up 20%. Yeah.
Year-to-date.
Not bad.
Stablecoins outpacing by about 20%.
And, of course, stablecoin market cap is a part of this as well.
But it's an interesting trend.
Expect more of these to come.
And clearly the demand is there.
We've got a few minutes left in the show.
There's an exciting minute today.
I don't know if this one's on your radar, Logie.
Let me try to find the tweet
I've got on this. Yeah, from
Roto. Roto, great entity
collector,
commenter, and list about the space.
So Jack Butcher, Gas
Wars, does go live
on OpenSea, I believe.
He's saying
6 p.m.
CEST. I want to say that saying 6 p.m. CEST.
I want to say that's 1 p.m. Eastern?
I think we're
six hours ahead, yeah, 1 p.m.
noon Eastern.
Or actually, I guess, is there
a five hour ahead at some point?
I don't know. It's probably on OpenSea's website.
It's just...
Central European summertime, right?
I think it's six hours.
I thought Gas Wars was...
Let's try to find this.
But anyways, while I try to find the exact times,
Gas Wars is the second to last Art Blocks curated met.
It is coming from artist Jack Butcher.
So it looks like OpenSea is doing a spaces.
Actually live against the show with Jack.
So I'm sure some folks,
looks like a thousand folks tuned in for that one
to talk about the project.
It's 500 entities.
It looks like it's going to be open for 500 seconds.
So it will be a literal gas war.
And as i understand it
i believe the tokens go up in price and they're all very very cheap i think like one dollar to
499 at the at the top of the end the top of the spectrum um and then each one is this little
airplane with different symbols on it that are generatively created.
So fairly cheap entry price.
Jack Butcher name, second to last art blocks curated.
Not too hard to paint a picture that there's going to be some secondary demand.
Are you going to be going for this one, Logie?
I'm not going to be, but I do like it for all those reasons you said.
Also, too, there's just some symbolism here
that's a nice way to wrap out
Artblocks, the curated
collections.
If you remember back to Artblocks summer,
I'm sure you're keenly aware, just
the gas wars that entire time
for not
just Artblocks, but for every NFT
mint. I think this is a really convenient way
and a poignant way to sort of tie off the collection.
So Jack is fantastic at doing that
and kind of layering in those,
I don't even think it's really too hidden here,
but those symbols and synergies
with the market and the community.
So I'm a fan.
I will not be looking to participate.
I don't know where I,
what I feel about art on chain right now.
there's a,
there's a place for it.
Of course.
I think,
you know,
a lot of,
X copy works,
Sam Spratt,
ACK.
Like,
I think those guys have,
uh, Claire silver, rightire silver right i think a handful
of artists have immortalized themselves on chain and will forever you know get some sort of premium
for the works i don't i don't know overall i'm kind of in this weird spot where like i don't
have i want to collect the stuff because I like a lot of the stuff.
Most of the things of like the really,
really good things I'm priced out of grant you and et cetera.
Right.
But I don't have a strong,
I don't know,
a strong pull to,
to buying anything on chain.
And part of that is unfairly me thinking about the financial ramifications of
like, why would I buy it when it's going to be like not worth anything?
That's a little unfair to the artist, perhaps, but that's a little bit of what I'm thinking.
And I'm sure probably a lot of other Web3 collectors are thinking as well.
It's fair. You're being very polite. You're kind of dancing around.
Yeah, I'm being polite, but I do want to collect some of the art.
Like some of the stuff I actually enjoy looking at, right?
Passes the look test.
But I'm just in my head of like, I don't know.
There have been millions and millions of art NFTs minted since 2021.
A huge chunk was minted in 2021.
There's 200 collectors. went to toledo
this past weekend that's probably half of the ad collectors in this space and maybe i'm exaggerating
a bit it's probably more than that um i've got i bought enough art in 2021 it'd probably last me a
lifetime like that's just the reality right yeah like i have hundreds
of art nfts and they're not all super valuable some are more viable than others um there was a
huge influx because of traders and now there is no trade there is pure collecting and that's
healthy but we also have to be very real about
where we're at in uh what is probably a 50 to 100 year plus digital art cycle we're very early
there's not a whole lot of people here we are so early now i do i think i see the the thesis
like the power law for grail digital art prices at the high end i think are going to go so so high
yeah i'm with you x copy is going to go through the roof people's going to go through the roof
i think sam sprat has a good chunk good chance to be in that echelon as well but it doesn't mean
that every art blocks curated collection of 500 nftTs is going to go high. Yeah.
I'm totally with you.
And I think right now, the last two years, last three years,
have been a fantastic time to accumulate those pieces.
Should you be in a position to do so?
I'm not in a position to be leveraging my financial future on XCopy right now,
unfortunately.
Had I hit that Powerball jackpot a couple weeks ago
maybe i would have gotten a couple of times but but right now unfortunately i need to sit by the
wayside and i do still really like the thought of uh you know sort of collecting from you know
earlier emerging artists uh sort of that rookie card feel, right? It comes from the sports world.
I still really, really enjoy that.
And that was part of what I think spurned some of the mania as well in 2021 was the feeling that these people coming on chain for the first time,
creating their works, would continue to do so,
and to only, right, continue to grow their profiles.
Most of them have not.
Some have done so very successfully.
ACK,
Sam's rat,
et cetera.
Right.
But,
we'll see.
I think it's an interesting thing to pay attention to right now.
I'm,
I'm hands off ish,
but I want to,
I want to keep appreciating it because I do really enjoy a lot of it.
even the really weird abstract stuff.
I like,
I'm a enjoyer of all
types of arts you know i miss one the fundamental drivers as well is the wealth effect does it feel
like anyone's feeling wealthy on chain right now in some pockets small pockets very very few pockets
you know what we need to do tyler we need to create a solana meme coin where the fees
go to establishing an x copy reserve well that's gonna happen we talked about that on underexposed
i think there'll be an x copy strategy there's some debate about what it should buy i said it
would be interesting if it was max pain because of the turnover versus like a grail piece which
is going to take forever not to buy you know the surprising part about all this is that X copies work doesn't do a
lot for me. I'm not like a style.
I'd probably rather own like a grant youn or something like that.
Just personally.
Well, I understand one grant you sold a piece yesterday for like $40,000 or so.
I think it was not a little.
I'm still, I'm still holding my, my one grail pieces.
I'm still holding a, oneil pieces. I'm still holding one of the UO's pieces.
Yeah.
There you have it.
But instead of the next copy strategy,
what we really need is to all get rich on chain.
And then we'll start buying more digital art.
I can promise you that.
As soon as I'm feeling very rich on chain,
I will buy more digital art.
But not there just yet.
Maybe we'll get there today.
Daddy pal, send us there. Stop being late. Stop being too damn late. Cut the damn rates. We'll find out in a few hours, folks. Thanks for tuning in to today's FOMO hour. We'll be back tomorrow
at 10 a.m. Eastern. Until then, go make it a beautiful day. Goodbye. Thank you.
